Vikings

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-6) at Detroit Lions (0-10-1)

The Lions are famously winless, heading into week 13 at 0-10-1, but winless teams actually tend to be a good bet against the spread this late in the season, as they tend to be undervalued by oddsmakers and the public, they tend to get overlooked by their opponents, and they tend to bring their best effort every week, in desperate pursuit of their first win. In all, winless teams cover at a 63.0% rate in week 9 or later.

The Lions also aren’t getting blown out every week either. They have been outscored by an average of 10.5 points per game, which gives them a point differential of -115, which is actually ahead of a couple teams (Texans and Jets), but even that suggests they are getting blown out more often than they are, with just three of their eleven games resulting in losses by more than 10 points, including a game against the Packers in which they led at halftime in Green Bay. 

The Vikings have not had any blowout losses, with their 8-point loss to the 49ers last week being their biggest margin of defeat of the season, but that seems to be a well known fact by the public, as many consider them a couple wins better than their record. However, that ignores that most of their wins have been close as well, including a few that could have gone the other way and just one win by multiple scores, relevant considering this is a 7.5-point line. Their point differential is +5 and their efficiency ratings don’t make them look any better, as they rank 14th, 30th, 5th, and 21st in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency, suggesting this has been no better than an average team this season.

Making matters worse for the Vikings, they are dealing with some tough health situations that make them more of a below average team, at least slightly. Their defensive line figures to be healthier this week, with both starting interior defenders Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce likely to return from short-term absences, but they’re still without their two best edge defenders Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, while their secondary is likely to be without top cornerback Patrick Peterson and their linebacking corps is expected to be without top linebacker Eric Kendricks. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings will be without feature back Dalvin Cook and talented starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, which are both big absences. 

My calculated line has the Vikings as just 5-point favorites in Detroit, so we’re getting good line value with the Lions at +7.5. The Vikings are also in a bad spot, having to play again in four days against the Steelers, as favorites have covered at just a 41.2% rate all-time before a Thursday game. With another game around the corner, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Vikings overlook the winless Lions, which could lead to the Lions at least keeping it close, as they have many times this season, including a near win in Minnesota earlier this season, back when the Vikings were healthier. I like the Lions a lot at +7.5.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7.5

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5)

The 49ers are just 5-5, but they have a point differential that is better than their record at +24, despite dealing with a significant amount of injury absences, many of whom have since returned, and despite a -5 turnover margin, 5th worst in the NFL. Turnover margin is highly non-predictive on a week-to-week basis and the 49ers rank 7th, 6th, 7th, and 4th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency, when adjusted for schedule, which are based on more predictive metrics like first down rate and yards per play, showing them to statistically be one of the best and most well-balanced teams in the league, despite all of the players who missed time earlier this season.

The 49ers have covered by a wide margin in back-to-back games and have overall covered three of their last four games, but they still remain underrated, favored by just 3 points at home against the Vikings. Part of that may be the Vikings being overrated, as the general public sees they have been competitive in all their games and could easily have a few more wins if a few things went their way. They also remember them handing the Packers their second loss of the season with Aaron Rodgers last week.

That analysis leaves out a lot of things though. For one, the Vikings could also just as easily have a few more losses, as just one of their wins has come by more than one score. The Vikings also needed pick sixes in two of their losses to make those games closer than they otherwise would have been and, if not for those, they could easily have a couple multiscore losses. On top of that, their win over the Packers isn’t as impressive as it seems, as the Packers are an overrated team with a lot of injury issues, and the Vikings will be more short-handed than they were a week ago, particularly on the defensive line. 

Already without interior defender Michael Pierce and edge defender Danielle Hunter for an extended period of time, the Vikings will add fellow interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson and fellow edge defender Everson Griffen to their list of absences this week, leaving them without their two best players at both positions, which is a big liability for a defense that already ranks just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Their offense and special teams are better, but not good enough to make up for their issues on defense, with their offense ranking 15th in efficiency and their special teams ranking 13th. They should be underdogs of a lot more than three points in San Francisco against a still underrated 49ers team. My calculated line favors the 49ers by 8, so the 49ers are an obvious choice against the spread and my top pick this week.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (8-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

The Packers are 8-2, a year after going 13-3, but they aren’t the same team as a year ago, primarily due to injuries. Already without left tackle David Bakhtiari, edge defender Za’Darius Smith, and cornerback Jaire Alexander, three of the top players in the league at their respective positions, who have missed most or all of the season, the Packers are now without talented lead back Aaron Jones with a knee injury he suffered in last week’s game. Green Bay’s record is obviously impressive, but they rank just 10th in point differential at +36 and, even if you exclude their two losses, one a somewhat fluky week one game and the other a game in which they lost by one score to the Chiefs without Aaron Rodgers, they would still rank just 5th in point differential at 77, so they are definitely not dominating teams.

That is despite the fact that the Packers have the 4th best turnover margin in the league at +7, which is not a predictive stat that they can rely on going forward. More predictive stats like yards per play and first down rate show this Packers team isn’t as performing at the same level as a year ago, ranking 14th, 13th, and 30th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency. The Vikings are just 4-5, but they have been competitive in every single one of their games, losing at most by 7 points, just once by more than four points, and totalling a +10 point differential on the season. 

I have not picked the Vikings lately because of all of their defensive absences, but, while they are still without stud edge defender Danielle Hunter, they will get stud safety Harrison Smith, top cornerback Patrick Peterson, and talented linebacker Anthony Barr all back from multi-game absences this week, which is a significant amount of talent that is being re-added to this lineup. 

My calculated line has the Vikings as the slight favorite to win this game, favoring them by 1.5 points and that is not even taking into account that the Packers typically drop off more on the road than the average team, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers having a well above average 10-point quarterback rating drop off between home games and road games in his career. 

Unfortunately, we are not getting much line value with the Vikings, who are underdogs of just 1 point. When this opened at 2.5, I was hoping we would get a full field goal at some point, but the line has moved the other direction, with sharp bettors recognizing that the Vikings are significantly healthier on defense than they have been in recent weeks. The money line is still worth a play, but there isn’t enough line value with the spread for that to be worth betting.

Update: This is a late bet, but Rashan Gary will be out for the Packers, despite practicing in limited fashion all week. He has been a big part of their defensive success without Za’Darius Smith, so having both him and Smith out will really limit this defense, in contrast to Minnesota being much healthier on defense. Despite that, this line has moved up to +1.5. I like both the spread and the money line in this game, as my calculated line has the Vikings favored by a field goal.

Minnesota Vikings 31 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

Typically the rule of thumb with the Chargers is to bet them on the road and bet against them at home. The Chargers hardly have any fans in Los Angeles and usually play in front of mostly road crowds, which means they don’t have a typical homefield advantage, but it also means they tend to be underrated away from home. Overall, the Chargers are 21-13 ATS on the road and 13-20 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles.

However, we’re not getting any line value with the Vikings because they are a little overrated. Going into the season, I thought the Vikings were underrated but, now, even though they are better than their 3-5 record, I think the opposite is true. The common narrative with them is they haven’t lost by more than one score all season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, as they needed pick sixes against the Cardinals and Ravens to keep those games close and they also have only won by more than one score once all season. 

Efficiency metrics don’t show they have excelled in any one aspect, ranking 21st, 21st, and 19th respectively on offense, defense, and special teams and their defense is even worse than that suggests right now, with three of their top players, Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, and Anthony Barr out with injury. A healthier defense was the main reason I liked the Vikings coming into the season, but their offense hasn’t been nearly as good as a year ago and their defense figures to revert to struggling with so many key players absent. We’re not getting any line value with the Chargers either and I definitely don’t want to bet them laying a field goal at home against still a decent opponent, but they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes, even if a push might be the most likely result.

Los Angeles Chargers 27 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

The Ravens have to follow up this game with a short week and a Thursday Night Football matchup, which usually isn’t good news for a favorite’s chance of covering the spread, as favorites have covered at just a 41.8% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. However, the Ravens are only facing the lowly Dolphins, so next week’s game probably won’t be a huge distraction and, more importantly, the Ravens should also be completely well rested, not just coming off of a bye, but somehow in their fourth straight home game. Including the bye week, the Ravens haven’t had to travel for a game since their week 4 trip to Denver. 

There isn’t much data on teams in their fourth straight home game and even less so on teams in their fourth straight home game coming off of a bye, or with a bye at some point during the homestand, but teams in their third straight home game cover at a 54.9% rate and it stands to reason that trend would extend to the fourth straight. For the record, teams are 6-3 ATS over the past 30 seasons in their fourth straight home game, which is a small sample size, but it adds further evidence that this should be a good spot for the Ravens.

We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Ravens at -6, as my calculated line has them as 7-point favorites. The Vikings have played better than their 3-4 record and haven’t lost by more than one score, but they just lost probably their best defensive player Danielle Hunter for the season, which hurts their outlook significantly going forward, and the Ravens are one of the better teams in the league, so they could easily hand them their first multi-score loss. There isn’t enough here to be confident betting the Ravens, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 35 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-3)

This game is the toughest call of the week because the status of Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott is probably going to be a gametime call. Prescott is not only one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but his backup Cooper Rush is one of the least experienced backup quarterbacks in the league, so the dropoff would be enormous if Prescott could not play. Given that, it’s surprising that a line has been posted, favoring the Vikings at home by a field goal. 

That seems to suggest that the oddsmakers think it’s more likely than not that Prescott does not play, as the Vikings would not be considered better than the Cowboys if Prescott was healthy. My calculated line would have the Cowboys favored by 3 points in Minnesota even if Prescott was not quite 100%, as the Cowboys have been the significantly better team this season, ranking 1st, 28th, and 17th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, while the Vikings have ranked 9th, 17th, and 30th respectively. 

However, if Prescott could not go, my calculated line would have the Vikings favored by 6. If it’s truly 50/50, the Cowboys are a value play at +3, but I don’t want to make any pick on this game until we know Prescott’s status, even if that makes going up to gametime. I am leaving this as a no confidence pick on the Cowboys for now, but this could change considerably depending on Prescott’s status and any line movement related to whether or not he plays.

Update: Dak Prescott is officially out and the line has moved to Minnesota -4.5. We are getting a little bit of line value with the Vikings, who are better than their 3-3 record and could easily be 4-2 or 5-1 right now, despite an above average schedule. However, there isn’t quite enough here for Minnesota to be bettable.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Dallas Cowboys 21

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -4.5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)

The Vikings are just 2-3, but their three losses have come by a combined 11 points, giving them a positive point differential of +4, despite the fact that the Vikings have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, 2nd in terms of opponent’s DVOA. The Vikings have also missed some key players to injury that have since returned, with top linebacker Anthony Barr, starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and running back Dalvin Cook missing two games, four games, and four games respectively.

All three of those players will be in the lineup for this matchup with the Panthers, who, despite their 3-2 record, are significantly worse than every team the Vikings have faced except for the Lions. The Panthers got out to a 3-0 start, but they took advantage of facing the Jets and Texans, two of the worst teams in the league, who both kept the game relatively competitive, as well as the inconsistent Saints. 

Since that 3-0 start, they have lost key players to injury like top cornerback Jaycee Horn, stud feature back Christian McCaffrey, and every down linebacker Shaq Thompson and, with the schedule getting tougher, they have lost to the Cowboys in a game that was not as close as the final score, with the Cowboys winning the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 7.09% and -1.99, respectively, and then they lost at home to the Eagles, who are middling at best. 

In their certain state, I have the Panthers 2.5 points below average, so we’re getting some line value with the Vikings as 2.5 point road favorites. My calculated line is Minnesota -3.5, which might not seem like much line value except for the fact that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. In a game in which the Vikings basically just need to cover to win, they are worth a play as they are the noticeably better team and should be able to take care of business, even on the road.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

The Vikings are just 1-3, but they have played much better than their record, playing teams that are a combined 12-4 through four weeks who could all end up as playoff qualifiers and playing all of their teams close, losing by a combined 11 points to actually give them a positive point differential at +2 on the season. I thought the Vikings would be a significantly improved team in 2021 because their defense is much healthier and more talented than a year ago and, while their record hasn’t shown it, they have been at least a solid team overall and have been much more balanced than a year ago.

This week, things get a lot easier for the Vikings, who host a Lions team that was already one of the weakest in the league entering the season and now is very injury depleted. In total, they are missing their top-2 offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow, their top edge rusher Romeo Okwara, and their likely top cornerback Jeff Okudah, with Ragnow and Okwara just going down in the past couple weeks. On top of that, talented edge defender Trey Flowers has missed the past two games and is no guarantee to return this week, while left tackle Penei Sewell, by default their best offensive lineman now, might also miss this game.

This line might seem high at Minnesota -10, but I actually have the Vikings favored by 15 in my calculated line, as they could easily be 3-1 with wins over quality teams and in that case would likely be favored by at least two touchdowns against one of the two worst teams in the league. The Vikings are also in a bit of a good spot in their third straight home game, which has about a 55.3% cover rate all-time. This is a smaller bet for now, but if this line happens to move down from 10, I would increase this play to a high confidence pick.

Update: Dalvin Cook has been ruled out for the Vikings, but this line has dropped to 9.5 to compensate. I already had Cook factored in as limited, so the line movement is the more important development to me. I am increasing this to a high confidence pick, as the Lions are still in much worse injury shape and are a much less talented team to begin with.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Detroit Lions 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -9.5

Confidence: High

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

The Browns lost week one, but they still are one of the top teams in the league, as their loss came in Kansas City in a game in which the Browns won both the first down rate (7.68%) and yards per play battle (1.65), while the Browns’ two wins came in blowout fashion. Their offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in first down rate, while their defense ranks 4th in yards per play allowed, which are the most predictive metrics on either side of the ball. This matches up with my roster rankings and overall I have the Browns 9.5 points above average.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Browns as 2 point favorites in Minnesota, as the Vikings have been an underrated team since the season began, with a strong offense and a defense that is much healthier and more talented than a year ago. The Vikings are just 1-2, but their two losses have come by a combined 4 points and their +9 point differential ranks 13th in the NFL. They could easily be 2-1 or 3-0, despite facing a tough schedule to start the season (Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks) and they are getting healthier too, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw set to make his season debut, shoring up a big position of need. The Browns should be able to win this game, but an upset wouldn’t surprise me either, so I am going to keep this as a low confidence pick for now.

Update: Darrisaw will be active for the Vikings, but apparently will not start in his debut. On top of that, the Vikings will be without one of their two questionable defensive starters, Anthony Barr, who has yet to play this season and will remain a significant absence. At the same time, this line has moved to even, so the Browns only have to win to cover now. They’re worth a big play, given these developments.

Cleveland Browns 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland PK

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

The Vikings are 0-2, but they aren’t far from being 2-0, as their two losses came by a combined 4 points, one by 1-point and one by a field goal in overtime. Both losses were also on the road against teams I thought were underrated coming into the season in the Bengals and Cardinals. The Vikings were also on my underrated list coming into the season because their defense is much healthier and more talented than a year ago and figures to have a much better season, but I haven’t picked them in any sort of significant way yet because of their early schedule.

I was hoping to get a good line with the Vikings at home against the Seahawks this week and would have recommended a bet at +3, but the Vikings remain home underdogs of just 2 points, meaning they will probably have to win outright to win this game. They could do that and my calculated line actually has the Vikings favored by 1.5 points, but there isn’t enough here to confidently take the Vikings at +2 because they are in a couple of bad spots. 

For one, they are having their home opener in week 3 and teams cover at just a 33.3% rate in a week 3 home opener over the past thirty seasons, although that does go up to 40% for winless teams. On top of that, the Seahawks will be motivated to bounce back after last week’s overtime loss to the Titans and Russell Wilson is 25-12 ATS off of a loss in his career. I’m still taking the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes and the money line is a solid value at +110 as the Vikings should be at least 50/50 to win this game, but I wouldn’t recommend betting the spread in this one.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Seattle Seahawks 26 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2

Confidence: Low