Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Typically the rule of thumb with the Chargers is to bet them on the road and bet against them at home. The Chargers hardly have any fans in Los Angeles and usually play in front of mostly road crowds, which means they don’t have a typical homefield advantage, but it also means they tend to be underrated away from home. Overall, the Chargers are 21-13 ATS on the road and 13-20 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles.
However, we’re not getting any line value with the Vikings because they are a little overrated. Going into the season, I thought the Vikings were underrated but, now, even though they are better than their 3-5 record, I think the opposite is true. The common narrative with them is they haven’t lost by more than one score all season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, as they needed pick sixes against the Cardinals and Ravens to keep those games close and they also have only won by more than one score once all season.
Efficiency metrics don’t show they have excelled in any one aspect, ranking 21st, 21st, and 19th respectively on offense, defense, and special teams and their defense is even worse than that suggests right now, with three of their top players, Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, and Anthony Barr out with injury. A healthier defense was the main reason I liked the Vikings coming into the season, but their offense hasn’t been nearly as good as a year ago and their defense figures to revert to struggling with so many key players absent. We’re not getting any line value with the Chargers either and I definitely don’t want to bet them laying a field goal at home against still a decent opponent, but they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes, even if a push might be the most likely result.
Los Angeles Chargers 27 Minnesota Vikings 24
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3