Vikings

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)

A couple weeks ago, coming out of their week 7 bye, I compared the Vikings to the 2019 Atlanta Falcons, who went 1-7 before their bye week before going 6-2 in their final 8 games. The Falcons had a first down rate differential of +1.33% in their first 8 games, but had a turnover margin of -11 that was the 2nd worst in the league at the time, which made winning any games very difficult, leading to the 1-7 record. Likewise, the Vikings had a schedule adjusted +2.73% first down rate differential, but struggled to win games for other reasons and went just 1-5 in their first 6 games.

Fortunately for the Vikings (and last year’s Falcons), per play success stats like first down rate tend to be much more consistent and predictive in the long run than stats like turnover margin that only tell what happened on a small percentage of a team’s snaps. The Falcons weren’t drastically better in first down rate differential over their 6-2 stretch at +2.02%, but their turnover margin improved to +6, making it much easier for the Falcons to win games. 

The Vikings weren’t killed by the turnover margin quite as much as last year’s Falcons, but they still ranked 3rd worst in the league at -7 through week 7, as they recovered just 35.71% of fumbles, while quarterback Kirk Cousins threw interceptions at a rate 2.5 times higher than his career average and over 3 times higher than his previous 3 seasons. Both of those things were unlikely to continue. Also unlikely to continue was the Vikings allowing 19 of 19 field goals against and having -31.8% 4th down conversion rate disparity. 

It wasn’t hard to see how that had led to the Vikings losing otherwise winnable games, as they were a failed 4th down conversation away from clinching the game in Seattle and lost by 1 to the Titans in a game in which the Titans made 6 of 6 field goals, including a trio from 50+ and a 55-yard game winner. The Vikings could have easily been 3-3 over their first 6 games, despite a relatively tough schedule, and that doesn’t even take into account that the Vikings fared much better on a per play basis than the final score suggests in losses in Green Bay and Atlanta, or that the Vikings were missing top offensive player Dalvin Cook in that Atlanta loss.

Seeing the Vikings as very underrated, I bet them my Pick of the Week in back-to-back weeks and they rewarded me both times, pulling an upset by 6 points as 7-point underdogs in Green Bay and then beating the Lions by 14 points as 3.5-point favorites. Unfortunately, the public and the oddsmakers are starting to catch up, as evidenced by this line shifting from Chicago -1.5 on the early line last week to Minnesota -3 this week, but we’re still getting good line value with the Vikings, who remain at least somewhat underrated.

Despite their tough schedule, they could easily be 5-3 right now and they still have several significant stats that should improve going forward, including their league leading 95.45% opponent’s field goal percentage, Kirk Cousins’ 4.78% interception rate, which is still double his career average, and a 30th ranked 37.50% fumble recovery rate. In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Vikings rank 7th and, while they might not be quite that good, they also rank 12th in my roster rankings, so they should continue playing at a high level going forward.

This line value is also in part due to the Bears being overrated. Everyone knows the Bears’ five wins have all come by one score, including four games that all came down to the final play and a pair of nearly impossible comebacks, but what’s not mentioned enough is that in three of their four losses, they were down by 16 points, 21 points, and 21 points in the 4th quarter before some meaningless late scores, against the Colts, Titans, and Rams, comparable caliber teams to the Vikings.

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, the Bears rank 22nd at -0.67% and there is reason to believe they’ll be worse than that going forward. They’ve been very reliant on a defense that ranks 7th in first down rate allowed over expected to cover for an offense that ranks 31st in first down rate over expected, which is a problem because defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance. 

Their offense also may even be worse than their rank suggests, as they will be without a trio of starting offensive linemen, left guard Mike Daniels, center Cody Whitehair, and right tackle Bobby Massie, as well as feature back David Montgomery. If their defense doesn’t play well every week, this team doesn’t have much of a shot to win games and even talented defenses can be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. 

Even with this line moving to -3, I still think this line is off significantly, as I have the Vikings calculated at -6. The Bears have next to no homefield advantage in Chicago without fans and the disparity between those two teams’ is massive (Minnesota ranking 5th and Chicago 31st) on offense, which is by far the more predictive side of the ball. The Vikings should be able to win by at least a field goal pretty easily, so I’m rolling with Minnesota as my Pick of the Week for the third straight week. They’re not as underrated as they’ve been, but the Bears are overrated and there isn’t another great Pick of the Week option this week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5)

This line was finally reposted at Minnesota -3.5, after confirmation that Lions quarterback Matt Stafford would be able to play despite being placed in the COVID contact tracing protocol earlier in the week. Earlier in the week I liked the Vikings at that number and I like them even more now that Stafford will be playing despite not practicing all week. The Lions are also now without starting safety Tracy Walker and starting left guard Joe Dahl due to injury and likely will be without top linebacker Jarrad Davis as well, in addition to top defensive end Trey Flowers and top wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who were ruled out earlier in the week.

The Vikings have just two wins, but they beat the Packers last week and, while that was in part due to the Packers looking ahead to a big rematch against the 49ers on a short week, the Vikings being competitive with high level teams is no fluke. They were a 4th down conversion away from beating the Seahawks and the Titans needed to go 6 for 6 on field goals, including 3 for 3 on 50+ yard field goals, to beat the Vikings by a single point. In total, the Vikings have allowed 19 of 19 field goals against, which is highly unlikely to continue going forward.

The Vikings could easily be 4-3 right now, despite a relatively tough schedule, and that doesn’t even take into account that the Vikings fared much better on a per play basis than the final score suggests in losses to the Falcons and to the Packers in their week 1 matchup, or that the Vikings were missing top offensive player Dalvin Cook in that Atlanta loss. In terms of first down rate differential, when adjusted for schedule, the Vikings rank 3rd in the NFL at +3.19%. While I don’t think they’re quite that good, I have them 14th in my roster rankings, and there’s definitely a strong case for them being significantly better than their record.

The Lions, meanwhile, are 3-4, but one of their win came in an improbable comeback against the Falcons, another came by 3 in Arizona in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but lost the first down rate battle by 8.96%, and the third came against a banged up Jaguars team that is one of the worst in the league. Their four losses, meanwhile, have come by a combined 51 points, giving them a -29 point differential, 22nd in the NFL.

In schedule adjusted first down rate differential, they are even worse, ranking 30th at -4.12%, as they haven’t played that well against a relatively easy schedule, and that doesn’t even take into account all of the Lions’ absences or the disruptions to their week this week. The Vikings should be favored by at least a touchdown, so we’re getting great value with them at 3.5. There isn’t a great choice this week, but the Vikings are my Pick of the Week.

Minnesota Vikings 35 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)

The Vikings have just one win, but there is reason to believe they’ll be a lot better than that going forward, coming out of last week’s bye. In many ways, they remind me of last year’s Atlanta Falcons, who started 1-7, but won 6 of their final 8 after their bye week. The Falcons had a first down rate differential of +1.33% in their first 8 games, but had a turnover margin of -11 that was the 2nd worst in the league at the time, which made winning any games very difficult. 

Fortunately for those Falcons (and these Vikings), per play success stats like first down rate tend to be much more consistent and predictive in the long run than stats like turnover margin that only tell what happened on a small percentage of a team’s snaps. The Falcons weren’t drastically better in first down rate differential over their 6-2 stretch at +2.02%, but their turnover margin improved to +6, making it much easier for the Falcons to win games. 

If anything, the Vikings have been better this season than the Falcons were last year during their 1-7 stretch, as the Vikings rank 4th in the NFL this season with a +2.73% first down rate differential, adjusted for schedule. The Vikings haven’t been killed by the turnover margin quite as much as last year’s Falcons, but they still rank 3rd worst in the league at -7, as they’ve recovered just 35.71% of fumbles, while quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown interceptions at a rate 2.5 times higher than his career average and over 3 times higher than his previous 3 seasons. Both of those things are unlikely to continue. Also unlikely to continue is the Vikings allowing 19 of 19 field goals against and their -31.8% 4th down conversion rate disparity. 

It’s not hard to see how that has led to the Vikings losing otherwise winnable games, as they were a failed 4th down conversation away from clinching the game in Seattle and lost by 1 to the Titans in a game in which the Titans made 6 of 6 field goals, including a trio from 50+ and a 55-yard game winner. The Vikings could easily be 3-3 right now, despite a relatively tough schedule, and that doesn’t even take into account that the Vikings fared much better on a per play basis than the final score suggests in losses in Green Bay and Atlanta, or that the Vikings were missing top offensive player Dalvin Cook before the bye in that Atlanta loss and have been without guard Pat Elflein since week 1. Both players are expected to return this week.

The Vikings’ defense is a real concern, especially with defensive end Yannick Ngakoue being traded and several injuries to their cornerback depth, and I definitely don’t think they’re as good as their raw first down rate stats would suggest, but even with their defensive problems, I still have them as a middle of the pack team in my roster rankings and defense tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offense. Like last year’s Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings are an offensive led team, which makes their chances of improving significantly going forward much better than if they were a defensive led team. 

The Falcons made a statement right away out of their bye last season, winning convincingly by score of 26-9 as 13.5-point underdogs in New Orleans in one of the biggest upsets of the season. The Vikings have a chance to do something similar this week in Green Bay (though it wouldn’t be quite as big of an upset) and even if they don’t I like their chances of keeping this one close. The Vikings lost by 9 to the Packers in Minnesota back in week 1, but that was a weird game where the Packers out snapped the Vikings 76-49 because they won the turnover battle by 1, they converted a 4th down, they forced a safety immediately after their failed 4th down conversion, and they stopped the Vikings on a 4th down try of their own. 

On a per snap basis, the Vikings won the first down rate battle by 10.23% and the yards per play battle by 0.9, which tends to be much more predictive than things like turnovers and 4th down performance. On the season, in addition to their edge in schedule adjusted first down rate differential (+2.73% vs. -0.05%), the Vikings also are just behind the Packers in net yards per play (0.3 vs. 0.2) and DVOA (10th vs. 18th). This game is in Lambeau, but with no fans in attendance, that doesn’t make much of a difference, so my calculated line is just Green Bay -4 and that’s before taking into account any situational factors.

Not only are these two teams closer than their records would suggest, but the Packers are also in a tough spot, having to turn around and play again in 4 days in San Francisco against a 49ers team that beat them twice easily last year and ended their season in the NFC Championship game. Favorites cover at just a 44.0% rate all-time before a Thursday night game and for the Packers the look ahead effect could be even greater, given that they’ve already beaten the Vikings once this year and have likely been looking forward to their nationally televised revenge game with the 49ers since the schedule came out. 

The Vikings, meanwhile, should be totally focused, coming out of a bye, with a much easier game against the Lions on deck. Underdogs cover at a 62.7% rate before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs and even that doesn’t hold true in this matchup, the logic still stands that the Vikings will be much more focused for this game than their opponents. On top of that, divisional home favorites of 3.5+ are 36-48 ATS over the past 30 seasons against a team they’ve already beaten and, for what it’s worth, underdogs are 9-5 ATS over the past 30 years off of a bye when their opponents will next play on a short week, although that’s obviously a small sample size. 

The Packers have a lot of injury uncertainty, with key players like left tackle David Bakhiari, safety Darnell Savage, and wide receiver Allen Lazard being legitimately questionable for this matchup, but even if they all play, I like the Vikings enough to make this my Pick of the Week and if all three of those players don’t play, there’s a good chance the Vikings could pull the straight up upset. I am glad I was able to lock this in at 7 earlier in the week because sharp action has pushed this line down to 6. I would still like the Vikings at 6, but not as much and at that number, the injury inactives will be more important.

Green Bay Packers 30 Minnesota Vikings 28

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4)

The Vikings are just 1-4, but they’ve played much better than their record has suggested. For one, their early schedule has been absolutely brutal, with their easiest game coming on the road in Houston against a Texans team that is also a lot better than it’s 1-4 record. The Vikings won that game and have been competitive in most of their other games, despite the tough competition and despite some fluky things going against them that should even out in the long run (opponents are 6 for 8 on fourth downs, Vikings are 3 for 6, opponents are 15 for 15 on field goals, the Vikings have recovered just 33.33% of available fumbles). In terms of first down rate differential, the Vikings rank 10th in the league at +2.79%, despite the toughest schedule in the league. 

The Vikings’ schedule gets a lot easier this week, as they are hosting the winless Falcons in Minnesota. They’ve been about as bad as there record would suggest, ranking 29th in first down rate differential -4.95%.Their offense is better than it’s played so far (23rd in first down rate differential at 37.57%) but their defense is undoubtedly one of the worst in the league and, with the Vikings being a formidable opponent, I have this line calculated at Minnesota -7.5, even taking into account that the Vikings won’t have star running back Dalvin Cook due to an injury and that they won’t have any traditional fans for this game. This line is at just 4 because the general public doesn’t realize the Vikings have played so much better than their record suggests and we’re getting great line value as a result. This is one of my top picks I am considering for Pick of the Week and, even if it’s not my top pick this week, this still is worth a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 31 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -4

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

Russell Wilson has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, but he’s never started a season this well, completing 75.2% of his passes for an average of 9.38 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, with 95 rushing yards in 4 games. The Seahawks overall rank 2nd in the league with a 44.80% first down rate, only behind the Green Bay Packers. This is as talented of an offensive supporting cast as Wilson has ever had, but there’s no denying how valuable Wilson has been for this team thus far. Wilson has somewhat famously never gotten an MVP vote, but it’s safe to say he’ll be in the mix this year if he continues playing this well.

The concern for the Seahawks is that, as well as Wilson is playing, they still aren’t blowing out most of their competition. They won by 13 points week 1 against the Falcons, but the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league and their other three wins have come by one score, including games against the Cowboys and Dolphins. This isn’t anything new, as the Seahawks won 10 of their 11 wins by one score last season.

The Seahawks’ defense, which ranks 19th in first down rate allowed at 40.68%, is a definite concern, as the Seahawks could see some of their close wins turn to losses if Wilson falls back to earth the rest of the way. Those defensive concerns are even bigger this week with the Seahawks missing safety Jamal Adams due to injury, as Adams is arguably their best defensive player and the top safety in the league.

The Seahawks face a 1-3 Vikings team at home in Seattle this week, but they won’t have their normal homefield advantage and the Vikings are better than their record suggests, as they’ve had some things go against them that are very inconsistent week-to-week, like their -4 turnover margin (5th worst in the NFL), their 22.22% fumble recovery rate (2 of 9, including 1 for 7 on fumbles forced), and the 15 of 15 field goals that opponents have hit against them.

In fact, the Vikings actually rank just slightly behind the Seahawks in first down rate differential (+4.12% vs. +3.84%), despite the fact that they’ve faced a much tougher schedule. DVOA doesn’t have them quite as close, but the Vikings rank 13th, 7 spots behind the Seahawks, which still suggests we’re getting significant line value with the visitor. They should be able to keep this game close like most teams do with the Seahawks and they should also have a better chance to come in and get the straight up win than most expect, especially if Wilson has an off game.

My only concern with this game is the Seahawks are going into their bye, which is usually a good spot for a big home favorite. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. However, the Seahawks are barely 7-point favorites and these two teams are more evenly matched than this line suggests, so I’m not sure this trend applies. My calculated line is just Seattle -4.5, giving the Seahawks 1.5 points for homefield advantage. I don’t like the Vikings as much as my typical Pick of the Weeks, but I don’t see a better option this week. I would be surprised if Seattle was able to win this game by multiple scores, barring some fluky outlier plays.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Houston Texans (0-3)

Both of these teams qualified for the post-season last year, but they’ve both gotten off to 0-3 starts that will make it tough for them to make it back to the post-season, even with an extra wild card spot being added. With both teams desperately wanting to avoid going 0-4, this will be essentially a must win game for both teams. A lot of attention has been given to the brutal start to their season that the Texans have had schedule wise, as they’ve faced the Ravens, Chiefs, and Steelers, but the Vikings’ schedule hasn’t been much easier, as they’ve faced the Packers, Colts, and Titans. 

The Vikings have also outplayed the Texans. While the Texans have ranked 27th in first down rate differential at -4.45%, the Vikings have actually ranked 11th at +2.76%, with their struggles being primarily due to a -5 turnover margin that is the third worst in the NFL. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Vikings won’t necessarily continue struggling with turnovers just because they have in the first three games and they’ve had some other fluky things go against them as well, including teams making 12 of 12 field goals against them and converting 4 for 4 on 4th down (as opposed to 0 for 2 for the Vikings).

Despite the Vikings’ early edge and the fact that the Texans won’t have a normal homefield advantage, the Texans are favored by 3.5 points at home. Given that about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, this line is way too high. My calculated line is Houston -1, so Minnesota is worth a small bet this week. The two most likely outcomes of this game are either team winning by a field goal, two results that would both be covers for the Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

It’s weird to see the Vikings be this bad on defense, after years of consistently strong defensive play under Mike Zimmer, but it’s not a fluke, as this is just not a talented unit. The Vikings lost a pair of mainstays on the defensive line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph and, while they were replaced with Yannick Ngakoue and Michael Pierce, the latter opted out of the season, while the former is basically by himself on a defensive line that is missing Danielle Hunter, who is normally one of the top edge rushers in the league. The Vikings also just lost Anthony Barr from their linebacking corps due to injury, while their cornerbacks are very thin in part due to injury, in part due to lack of talent. Adding to their injury list, nominal top cornerback Mike Hughes is expected to be out this week. 

On offense, it’s tough to know what to make of this team because their week 1 and week 2 performances could not have been more different. In week 1, the offense did the most they could with the limited amount of time their defense allowed them to be on the field, picking up 25 first downs and 4 touchdowns on 49 offensive snaps, to give them a ridiculous 59.18% first down rate, but in week 2, they couldn’t get anything going, finishing with a 27.66% first down rate. Guard Pat Elflein didn’t play in week 2 after playing week 1 and he’ll be out again this week, but it’s unlikely his absence alone caused the big drop off from week 1 to week 2.

Realistically, the Vikings should ultimately be somewhere right in the middle of their past two performances this season. They finished 11th in first down rate last season and, while they lost wide receiver Stefon Diggs this off-season, they do have a healthy Adam Theilen. It’s going to be tough for their offense to keep up with what their defense puts up though, at least until Hunter is back, and especially against tougher competition.

The Titans are 2-0 and, though they haven’t been tested yet, I liked their chances of being a top-10 team coming into the season and, while they’re still missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and top wide receiver AJ Brown, they’re actually healthier now than they’ve been in their first two games. I have them about 6 points better in my roster rankings than the Vikings right now, suggesting the Titans should be favored by about 3.5-4 points in Minnesota. That doesn’t seem like a lot of line value, with this line sitting at -2.5, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. It shouldn’t be too difficult for the Titans to beat the Vikings by a field goal or more, with the Vikings banged up and not having a normal homefield advantage, so they’re worth a bet as favorites of less than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 26 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: 2020 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Both of these teams had disappointing opening weeks, with the Vikings losing at home to the division rival Packers and the Colts losing on the road to the Jaguars by a slim margin in a big upset. For the Vikings, all of their problems were on defense, as they allowed the Packers to pick up first downs at a 47.37% rate, the 5th highest mark of the week. The Vikings were actually one of the four teams ahead of them though, even though they ultimately lost the game.

In fact, the Vikings led the week with a ridiculous 59.18% first down rate, picking up 25 first downs and scoring 4 offensive touchdowns, on just 49 offensive plays. The Packers’ offensive display was more impressive on the scoreboard, but they went 6 of 11 on third downs, they won the turnover battle by 1, and, while the Vikings failed on their only 4th down attempt, the Packers went 1 for 2, with their one failure coming on the goal line and leading almost immediately to a safety and re-gained position.

The Vikings were still able to put up 34 points despite running 27 fewer plays because they were hyper-efficient on 1st and 2nd down, winning the yards per play battle significantly as well (7.8 to 6.9) and needing to run just 6 third down plays (3 for 6) all game, by far the fewest in the league last week (next closest was 9). Turnover margin and third/fourth down conversion rates tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so it bodes well for the Vikings’ offensive chances that they were able to be that efficient on early downs against a capable defense. The Vikings have obvious issues on defense and those should continue at least until edge defender Danielle Hunter returns from injury, but their offense looks more than capable of winning shootouts in the meantime.

On the other side, the Colts disappointed on both sides of the ball in Jacksonville, but they lost the turnover margin by -2, something that won’t happen every week, and that week 1 result is probably the one we’ll most look back on as a fluke at the end of the season. The Colts were just a middling team last year, but they get an upgrade under center (even if Rivers isn’t what he was, he should be better than Brissett), they get their top wide receiver back from injury in TY Hilton, and they add a much needed stud defensive lineman in DeForest Buckner, so they should end up being noticeably improved this season when all is said and done, even if they didn’t gel right away with a new quarterback after a short off-season.

In my roster rankings, I give the Colts a 4-point edge over the Vikings and their banged up defense, so we’re getting some line value with the Colts as just 3-point home favorites. The Vikings have the offensive firepower to keep things close and even pull off the upset, especially if the Colts are still feeling the effects of installing a new quarterback on a shortened off-season, but I think there’s enough here for the Colts to be worth a small bet in a game they should win and only need to win by 3 to at least push.

Indianapolis Colts 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

When these two teams met last season, the Packers won both matchups, outscoring the Vikings by 18 points and winning the first down rate battle by 10.32% between the two games. The Packers also won more games overall, winning the NFC North at 13-3, with the Vikings settling for a wild card at 10-6. However, overall, the Vikings actually outplayed the Packers on the year, with edges in first down rate differential (+3.34% vs. +1.15%), point differential (+104 vs. +63), and DVOA (+15.4% vs. +7.7%). 

There is a lot of talk about how the Packers didn’t do anything notable to improve their weaknesses this season, but the Vikings had a much worse off-season and are missing key contributors from last season. On offense, they traded away Stefon Diggs, who was their top wide receiver last season, and replaced him with a rookie first round pick. On defense, defensive end Everson Griffen and defensive tackle Linval Joseph left in free agency. The Vikings brought in Yannick Ngakoue and Michael Pierce to replace them, but the latter opted out of the season, while the former will start the season as a replacement for other starting defensive end Danielle Hunter, one of the top edge defenders in the league, who will miss at least the first 3 weeks of the season with injury. Without him, the Vikings have a very underwhelming defensive line, with Ngakoue as their only real threat.

The Packers are missing an offensive lineman to do injury, but have arguably the deepest offensive line in the league, with 6 capable starters on the roster. Overall, I give the Packers a 3.5 point edge over the Vikings based on the current state of their rosters. This is technically a road game for the Packers, but the Vikings won’t have any fans in the stadium due to pandemic restrictions and the Packers don’t have to travel far. This line favors the Vikings by 2.5 points, but my calculated line is the opposite favoring the Packers by 2.5. I don’t love line value between -3/+3 because so few games are decided by 2 or fewer points, but the Packers are worth a small bet at +2.5 and there’s good value with the money line at +120 as well. If this line moves up to +3, I will increase this bet.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings 2020 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Vikings took a big risk two off-seasons ago, signing veteran free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to a fully guaranteed 3-year, 84 million dollar deal to fill their void at the quarterback position. That’s a lot of money, but it’s in line with what some other comparable quarterbacks are making annually, the guarantees were actually less than some longer non-fully guaranteed deals, and Cousins could have gotten more money elsewhere, choosing Minnesota because they had the most competitive roster outside of the quarterback position.

In the first year, the results weren’t what the Vikings were expecting, as the Vikings finished 8-8 and ranked just 23rd in first down rate at 34.80%, but Cousins wasn’t really the problem, as he ranked 15th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus and completed 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The problem was that, despite a defense that kept games close (6th in first down rate allowed at 33.33%) and a poor pass blocking offensive line that allowed Cousins to be pressured at a 38.7% pressure rate (7th highest among qualifying quarterbacks), the Vikings still had 606 pass attempts to 357 rush attempts, the 6th fewest rush attempts in the league. That split was even more skewed before the Vikings fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, who was in large part fired for his unwillingness to establish the run; new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski called a 90/83 pass/run split in the final 3 games of the season.

Stefanski stayed on as offensive coordinator for 2019 and, along with new offensive advisor Gary Kubiak, they designed a completely different offense. They went from being pass heavy to having more rush attempts (476) than pass attempts (466), one of three teams in the league to do so last season (49ers and Ravens). They frequently ran two tight end and two back sets and called play action on 31.4% of Kirk Cousins’ pass attempts (6th most among eligible quarterbacks), with Cousins completing 71.8% of his passes for an average of 9.67 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions off play action, a 129.2 QB rating that ranked 4th in the NFL off play action.

All in all, Cousins completed 69.1% of his passes for an average of 8.11 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Vikings to a 37.31% first down rate in his 15 starts (he sat in a meaningless week 17 game), which ranked 11th in the NFL over that stretch. Their defense remained strong (9th in first down rate allowed at 33.71%) and the Vikings ended up with 10 wins and a wild card berth. 

Cousins wasn’t the only reason for their offensive success, but he was a big part of a balanced attack and finished as PFF’s 5th ranked quarterback on the season. Cousins has been a solid starter since 2015 (79 starts), completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions, but last year was easily his highest graded season, as he finished between 10th and 20th at his position in every season from 2015-2018. 

Cousins may regress slightly in 2020, but he could easily continue playing at a high level, with accomplished offensive mind Gary Kubiak taking over as the full-time offensive coordinator and largely keeping the same scheme in place. Cousins has also never missed a start with injury in his career, but if he happens to miss time, the Vikings would have to turn to Sean Mannion, whose mediocre start in the Vikings’ meaningless week 17 game last season is the only start of his career. Obviously the Vikings want to avoid that.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The bigger problem than Cousins potentially regressing a little after a career best year is this team is becoming expensive to keep long-term, especially given Cousins’ salary, as he’ll make 96 million over the next three seasons after signing a 2-year, 66 million dollar extension this off-season. The Vikings were able to make it to the second round of the post-season last season, but don’t seem to be in better shape to go on a deep run in 2020. With a tough financial situation this off-season, the Vikings made the decision to move on from several players, including highly paid wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who was sent to the Bills for a first round pick and a swap of mid round picks.

Diggs led this team in receiving in 2019, putting up a 63/1130/6 slash line despite the Vikings being so run heavy, and ranking 2nd in the league among wide receivers in yards per route run with 2.69. He’s also consistently been an above average option since entering the league in 2015, but with the Vikings getting a first round pick for him, it’s understandable why they made the move. Given that this is a run heavy team, it wouldn’t make a ton of sense for the Vikings to pay top of the market money to their quarterback and his top-two options and the Vikings already have Adam Thielen set to return after an injury-ruined 2019 season and owed 21.6 million over the next two seasons. This was also a good wide receiver draft class, which allowed the Vikings to find a much cheaper replacement in Justin Jefferson. 

Jefferson will almost definitely be a downgrade as a rookie, but he could still be a capable #2 wide receiver on a run heavy team and he has the upside to be as good as Diggs long-term. He will start opposite Thielen, who averaged a 91/1205/6 slash line in the three seasons prior to last season, ranked in the top-20 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons (including a pair of top-8 finishes in 2017 and 2018), and still averaged a solid 1.86 yards per route run on 225 routes in limited action in 2020 (28th among wide receivers). Thielen is going into his age 30 season, but isn’t totally over the hill and has never missed a game besides the injuries he had last season, so he has obvious bounce back potential, even if he’s not quite as good as he’s been in the past. His targets are capped by this being a run heavy offense, but he should still see plenty of balls his way as the clear cut #1 option.

Bisi Johnson was their 3rd receiver last year and saw 6 starts in Thielen’s absence, even though he was just a 7th round rookie, and he played about as you’d expect a 7th round rookie to play, ranking 90th out of 101 eligible wide receivers with 1.03 yards per route run. He’ll only face competition from free agent acquisition Tajae Sharpe, who has averaged just 1.19 yards per route run in 4 seasons in the league as a #3/#4 receiver since going in the 5th round in 2016, so Johnson could easily remain third on the depth chart. He may be better in his second season, but it could be only by default.

Fortunately, this offense doesn’t go to three wide receivers all that given, given how often they use fullback CJ Ham (354 snaps) and their two tight ends Kyle Rudolph (791 snaps) and Irv Smith (612 snaps). Even third tight end Tyler Conklin saw 18.3 snaps per game, primarily as a blocker in obvious passing situations. All three of their tight ends and CJ Ham remain and will all have similar roles in 2020. Ham is a solid blocking fullback and also caught 17 passes last season as well, though his 5.73 yards per target average hardly makes him an efficient option (6.16 yards per target on 49 career targets). Rudolph and Smith also had decent slash lines of 39/367/6 and 36/311/2 respectively, despite receiving just 48 targets and 47 targets respectively.

Smith was a second round rookie last season and earned a slightly above average grade from PFF overall, something he could easily improve on in his second season in the league. Rudolph, meanwhile, is a 9-year veteran. He had injury problems early in his career, but he has earned an average or better grade from PFF in all 9 seasons in the league and he hasn’t missed a game due to injury over the past 5 seasons. Over those 5 seasons, he has averaged a 58/574/6 slash line, while being a solid blocker as well. 

Now going into his age 31 season, it’s very possible Rudolph will start to decline, but he didn’t really show any signs of being diminished last season, so he could easily remain a solid starter for at least another couple seasons. Even if he does decline, the Vikings could compensate by giving more playing time to a developing Irv Smith. The Vikings will definitely miss Stefon Diggs, but they get Adam Thielen back healthy, they add a first round wide receiver to replace Diggs, they have good complimentary pass catching options at tight end and running back (Dalvin Cook also had a 53/519/0 slash line on 63 targets), and they’re a run heavy team that didn’t need two highly paid wide receivers. This is a solid group overall, largely depending on how close to his pre-injury form Thielen can be. 

Grade: B

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook was also a big part of this offense on the ground. In fact, him staying healthy and showing his potential over a full season is what allowed this offense to operate in the run heavy/play action way they operated in successfully last season. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Cook showed a lot of potential in his first two seasons in the league, averaging 4.68 YPC and catching 3.4 passes per game, but he was limited to 207 carries in 15 games total due to injury, including a torn ACL that ended his rookie year. In 2019, Cook still missed two games, but he still ended up with 250 carries and turned those carries into 1,135 yards (4.54 YPC) and 13 touchdowns, in addition to what he did in the air. All in all, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked running back on the season.

Wanting to add insurance for the injury prone Cook last off-season, the Vikings used a 3rd round pick on Alexander Mattison and he had a role on this run heavy offense last season, rushing for 462 yards and 1 touchdown on 100 carries (4.62 YPC), while catching 10 of 12 targets for 82 yards. Mattison’s per carry average wasn’t bad, but it’s worth noting that 41.3% of his yardage came on 9 carries and he averaged just 2.98 YPC on his other 91 carries, while ranking dead last overall among qualifying running backs in carry success rate at 38%.

Mattison should have the same role in 2020 if everything goes as planned, but there are two somewhat realistic ways he could see more action. One is simply if Cook was to miss significant time, certainly a possibility for a running back who hasn’t made it through a full 16 game season yet. The other is if Cook holds out into the season in pursuit of a contract extension, ahead of the final year of his cheap rookie deal. A full season holdout is unlikely if only because those are exceedly rare, but a partial season holdout is definitely a possibility, even if the history of players who only show up for part of the season isn’t great (see Melvin Gordon 2019). 

Cook wants to be paid as a top running back, but the Vikings don’t have a lot of long-term financial flexibility and may not want to commit top dollar to a running back with a history of injury problems, especially when they have another back in Mattison who was a relatively high pick that the organization is still high on. This is a situation to monitor into the season as Mattison would be a significant drop off from Cook if he had to see every down work. Their depth is also limited with only Mike Boone, who has just 60 career carries since going undrafted in 2018 and Ameer Abdullah, a return man with a career 3.90 YPC average, behind Cook and Mattison.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Vikings’ offensive line has been an issue for years and those issues continued into 2019. Cousins wasn’t pressured quite as much in 2018 as he was in 2019, but he was still pressured on 36.4% of his dropbacks, 10th in the NFL. This group did take a big step forward as run blockers though, as the Vikings went from 27th in run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus in 2018 to 11th in 2019, a big part of why they were able to be so effective on the ground. The Vikings return 4 of 5 starters from last year’s offensive line, only losing right guard Josh Kline, who was released ahead of a 4.75 million dollar salary, following a middling 2019 season. Depending on how they go about replacing Kline, however, this line could look pretty different this season.

The easiest thing the Vikings could do would be to replace Kline with Dru Samia, a 2019 4th round pick who could take a step forward in his 2nd season after playing 31 snaps as Kline’s backup last season. The Vikings used the 58th overall pick on Boise State left tackle Ezra Cleveland though, which gives the Vikings the option to either try him at right guard or to keep him at left tackle and move Riley Reiff inside to guard, a position he has some experience at and where he could be a better fit as he ages (age 32 season in 2020). 

Reiff had a solid season in 2019, finishing 29th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, his 7th above average grade from PFF in 8 seasons in the league, and the Vikings kept him this off-season despite the fact that they could have saved a much needed 8.8 million in cap space by releasing him this off-season, but he will likely begin to decline over the next few years, something that could be slowed down if he moves inside. 

At the very least, Cleveland’s selection suggests the left tackle job isn’t Reiff’s for much longer. Where the Vikings want to play Cleveland will determine what they do with Reiff and Dru Samia, as Cleveland could either be a starting left tackle, a starting right guard, or a reserve left tackle. It’s also possible Cleveland or Reiff could play left guard and move incumbent left guard Pat Elflein to right guard. 

Regardless of where he plays, Elflein figures to be a starter in 2020. Elflein struggled earlier in his career as a center, finishing 23rd out of 39 eligible centers on PFF in 14 starts as a 3rd round rookie in 2017 and dead last out of 39 eligible centers in 13 starts in 2018, but he was actually slightly above average in his new spot at left guard in 2019. He’s a one-year wonder, but could easily remain a solid starter going forward, only in his age 26 season, now at a position where he seems to be a much better fit.

Elflein was moved because the Vikings used their first round pick in 2019 on Garrett Bradbury, who made all 16 starts at center as a rookie. Bradbury had some growing pains as a rookie though, finishing 29th out of 35 eligible centers on PFF. He could obviously be better in his second season, however, and still projects as at least a solid starter long-term. Right tackle Brian O’Neill bookends this line and the 2018 2nd round pick took a noticeable step forward in his second season in 2019, finishing 32nd among offensive tackles on PFF after being a middling starter as a rookie. He could easily continue being an above average starter long-term. This line lacks a standout player, but they’re not a bad group overall, especially if they can figure out the right guard and left tackle spots.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

Along with Stefon Diggs, the Vikings also moved on from edge defender Everson Griffen this off-season, releasing him ahead of 13.5 million dollars non-guaranteed owed in 2020. Griffen was still Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked edge defender, while playing 56.6 snaps per game, but he was heading into his age 33 season in 2020, so the Vikings didn’t bring him back at his scheduled salary. Griffen is still available on the open market and there’s talk that the Vikings could still bring Griffen back at a cheaper rate, which they have the cap space available to do, but as of right now, they haven’t done anything to replace him and have a big hole at the position as a result.

If Griffen isn’t brought back before the start of the season, they’ll likely start Ifeadi Odenigbo, a 2017 7th round pick, who flashed on 368 snaps in the first significant action of his career last season but is an obvious projection to a potentially every down starting role. Stephen Weatherly struggled on 422 snaps last season as the 3rd defensive end, but with him signing in Carolina this off-season, their best alternatives to Odenigbo would be bottom of the roster caliber veterans like Anthony Zettel or Eddie Yarborough, who were added this off-season, or 4th round rookie DJ Wonnum, who is very raw. 

Fortunately, the Vikings do still have Danielle Hunter, who was even better than Griffen last year, ranking 7th among edge defenders on PFF and especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 15.7% pressure rate. Last year was the best season of Hunter’s career, but he’s not really a one-year wonder, ranking between 19th and 32nd among edge defenders on PFF in every season from 2016-2018, while totalling 34 sacks, 17 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate over those three seasons combined. The 2015 3rd round pick is also still very young, not even turning 26 until December, so he could easily remain a high level edge defender for at least a few more seasons. He significantly elevates a position group that would be in big trouble if Hunter missed any time.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Vikings also released interior defender Linval Joseph this off-season, saving 11.75 million ahead of his age 32 season. Like Griffen, Joseph was still a useful player last season (38th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus), but unlike Griffen he was actually replaced, with the Vikings signing ex-Raven Michael Pierce to a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal to replace him. Pierce is a similar player to Joseph, primarily a run stuffer who can also get to the quarterback on occasion, but he’s younger (age 28 season) and comes with much higher upside. 

Even in a down year due to injuries in 2019, Pierce still earned an above average grade as a run stopper and prior to last season he finished in the top-14 among interior defenders in run stopping grade in three straight seasons, including a career best 4th ranked finish in 2018. He’s not much of a pass rusher and he’s never topped 594 snaps in a season as primarily a base package player throughout his career, but his 6.9% pressure rate is better than you’d expect from a 340 pounder and he has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy in 2020. He’ll likely play around the 42.5 snaps per game that Joseph played in 2019.

Along with Linval Joseph, Shamar Stephen (580 snaps) and Jaleel Scott (408 snaps) also saw significant action on the interior last season. Both struggled though, finishing 91st and 115th respectively out of 125 eligible interior defenders, especially struggling as pass rushers, with a combined 3.0% pressure rate. Stephen has been middling at best on an average of 413 snaps per season in 6 seasons in the league, while Johnson has struggled on 710 career snaps since being taken in the 4th round in 2017, so I wouldn’t expect much from either one this season, but both will likely have to see significant roles again in 2020, for lack of better options. 

The Vikings also won’t have the luxury of using three defensive ends together in sub packages and lining one up on the interior, which they often did last season, given their lack of depth on the edge. The Vikings did use a 4th round pick on James Lynch, who could see action as a situational pass rusher as a rookie, and they could also give more playing time to Hercules Mata’afa, a 2018 undrafted free agent who showed very little on the first 100 snaps of his career last season as primarily a situational pass rusher. The Vikings probably upgraded adding Michael Pierce for Linval Joseph, but the rest of this group is very questionable.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Vikings do return all of their key off ball linebackers this season, most importantly Eric Kendricks, who plays every down in the middle of this 4-3 defense. Largely a solid, but unspectacular every down off ball linebacker in 4 seasons in the league prior to last season, Kendricks broke out with Pro Football Focus highest grade among off ball linebackers on the season. Kendricks had never finished above 30th before last season, so there’s obviously a good chance he regresses at least somewhat, but he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season and he has been consistently solid throughout 70 starts in 5 seasons in the league. I would expect him to be at least an above average starter, even if he doesn’t play nearly as well as last season.

Anthony Barr also returns as an every down player on the outside. Like Kendricks, Barr once had a dominant season, but it was way back in his second season in the league in 2015 when he ranked 5th among off ball linebackers on PFF and, in his other 5 seasons, he’s never finished higher than 23rd at his position. He’s still earned an above average grade from PFF in 4 of 6 seasons in the league, while averaging 62.3 snaps per game, though one of the two exceptions was last season, when he was a middling player across 930 snaps. Still only in his age 28 season, Barr has some bounce back potential, but I wouldn’t expect him to come close to his outlier year in 2015. 

The Vikings also have good depth in their linebacking corps, with both Eric Wilson and Ben Gedeon returning to compete for the 3rd linebacker job in base packages, primarily focusing on stuffing the run. Wilson played 380 snaps in that role last season and wasn’t bad and the 2017 undrafted free agent wasn’t bad on the first 336 snaps of his career in 2018 either. Gedeon, meanwhile, is a 2017 4th round pick who has flashed potential on 658 snaps in 3 seasons in the league, primarily as a situational run stuffer. Either one would be a solid option in base packages and they give the Vikings better depth than most linebacking corps as well. Even if Eric Kendricks isn’t likely to repeat last year’s career best year, this is still a solid group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Vikings’ safeties were definitely the strength of their defense last season, as Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris were both among the best safeties in the league, and, even though Harris was a free agent this off-season, the Vikings were able to bring him back on the franchise tag to maintain arguably the best safety duo in the NFL. Harris’ ascension to being among the top safeties in the league kind of came out of nowhere, as prior to week 8 of last season, the 2015 undrafted free agent played just 621 career snaps (8 starts), but he took over as the full-time starter in week 8 of 2018, made the final 9 starts of the season, and finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked safety over that stretch. 

There were definitely legitimate questions about whether or not Harris could repeat that strong 9-game stretch over a full season, but he answered those questions by actually improving to 2nd among safeties in 14 starts in 2019. He’s still relatively unproven for his age (age 29 season), which may be why the Vikings franchise tagged him this off-season, rather than giving him a big long-term extension, but even if he isn’t quite as good in 2020 as he’s been over the past 23 starts, he should still be a high end safety.

Smith, meanwhile, has been one of the best safeties in the league since he entered as a first rounder eight years ago in 2012. With the exception of an injury ruined year early in his career, Smith has finished in the top-26 among safeties on PFF in every season in the league, including 6 finishes in the top-13 and 4 finishes in the top-5. His age is becoming a concern now in his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any decline with a 3rd ranked finish in 2019 and, even if he does decline a little in 2020, he should still be one of the top safeties in the league and should still form a dominant duo with Anthony Harris.

Cornerback, on the other hand, was a big weakness for this team in 2019. With three pending free agents at the position in Xavier Rhodes (795 snaps), Trae Waynes (769 snaps), and Mackenzie Alexander (534 snaps), the Vikings opted to start fresh at the position this off-season. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll have better cornerback play though, as they’re going to be relying on a very young group. First round pick Jeff Gladney, third round pick Cameron Dantzler, and fifth round pick Harrison Hand were all added through the draft and Gladney and Dantzler at least figure to have significant roles.

Gladney could even be their nominal #1 cornerback as a rookie, with his top competition being Mike Hughes, a former first round pick in his own right, but one who has had a tough two seasons in the league, tearing his ACL after 244 snaps as a rookie and then finishing 92nd out of 135 eligible cornerbacks on PFF on 500 snaps in 2019. He still has upside and, another year removed from the injury, could easily take a step forward, but it’s definitely a problem that he’s their top returning cornerback. Holton Hill, a 2018 undrafted free agent who has flashed on 527 career snaps, also returns and figures to be in the mix for a job in three cornerback sets, but he’s hardly a proven option. The Vikings’ safeties will mask their cornerback problems somewhat, but they’ll need at least one or two young cornerbacks to step up for this to be an above average secondary.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings were one of the most well-rounded teams in the league last season, with a 11th ranked offense in first down rate and a 9th ranked defense in first down rate allowed, but they lost key players on both sides of the ball this off-season, including wide receiver Stefon Diggs and defensive end Everson Griffen, while other players like Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Eric Kendricks may struggle to repeat the best year of their career. They also are unlikely to have the fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league again like they did last season. The Packers weren’t as good as their 13-3 record suggested last season and aren’t noticeably improved this season, so the NFC North should still be winnable for the Vikings, but I wouldn’t consider the Vikings true Super Bowl contenders. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Vikings lost defensive tackle Michael Pierce to an opt out, but they traded for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue of the Jaguars to give them a boost on the edge. I still have the Vikings behind the Packers in the NFC North and a tough schedule outside of the division will make their route to a wild card tougher, but they should be able to make it into the post-season.

Projection: 9-7 (2nd in NFC North)