The Texans’ recent 1-3 stretch has a lot of people questioning them, but their struggles aren’t limited to that 4 games stretch. There were signs before, including near overtime losses to Detroit and Jacksonville. Since losing Brian Cushing against the Jets way back in week 5, they have been less than spectacular. They barely beat the Jets and then got blown out at home by the Packers.

They followed that up by blowing out the Ravens in by far their most impressive game since Cushing’s injury, but after the bye, they beat Buffalo by just 12, the Jay Cutler-less Bears by 7, went to overtime with Detroit and Jacksonville, beat Tennessee by 14, got blown out by the Patriots, beat the Colts by 12, and then lost to both Minnesota and Indianapolis.

Now, instead of having the #1 seed that once looked like a given, they could be eliminated as early as tomorrow as they have to play this weekend and they play the better of the two wild cards, the Bengals. Andy Dalton’s career struggles against playoff teams (1 legitimate win) are a good sign for the Texans, but they’re hardly in a good position.

Like the Colts, they are overrated because of an unsustainably good record in games decided by a touchdown or less (5-0) and a weak schedule (not as weak as the Colts’ schedule, but they do play in a very bad division). They have faced all the other AFC division champs, going 2-1, but I don’t like their chances to win in New England or Denver. New England already blew them out and while they did beat the Broncos in week 2, that was a different Broncos team (not as different as they may seem, which I’ll get to in their write up, but still different). While the Colts’ 25th ranked DVOA is the biggest difference between record and DVOA, the Texans’ 11th ranked DVOA (and 19th ranked weighted DVOA) is pretty significant as well.

Projected fate: Lose to New England in divisional round

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