Tennessee Titans 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

The Titans’ season looked to be over early last season, as they were shut out in Denver week 6 in a 16-0 loss that dropped them to 2-4. Instead, that loss ended up saving their season, as that game convinced them to swap starting quarterbacks, inserting Ryan Tannehill into the lineup instead of Marcus Mariota. From that point on, the Titans won 7 of their final 10 regular season games to qualify for the playoffs at 9-7 and then pulled big post-season upsets in New England and Baltimore before coming up short in the AFC Championship in Kansas City against the eventual Super Bowl winning Chiefs.

The Titans were better than their 2-4 suggested during their rough start, as they managed a +1.76% first down rate differential, but it was their defense that was carrying them early in the season, as it had the season before, ranking 4th in first down rate allowed through the first 6 games after finishing the 2018 season also 4th in first down rate allowed. Down the stretch in 2019, the Titans’ defense actually got worse as the team went on their hot streak, ranking 24th in first down rate allowed over the final 10 games of the season, but the offense more than compensated, going from 26th in first down rate through the first 6 games of the season in 2019 and 24th in 2018 with Mariota to 2nd over the final 10 games of the season with Tannehill. 

Tannehill wasn’t the only reason for their offensive improvement, but he was the most noticeable one and by all measures was one of the top quarterbacks in the league in his 10 regular season starts. He finished the season with 70.3% completion, 9.59 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, a 117.5 QB rating that ranked #1 in the NFL, and he was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback on the season. Tannehill wasn’t needed as much in the post-season as the Titans went run heavy and attempted just 60 passes in 3 games, but Tannehill didn’t lose them any games, with a 5/1 TD/INT ratio. 

Wanting to see what Tannehill can do in a full season as the starter and beyond, the Titans opted to keep Tannehill on a 4-year, 118 million dollar deal with 91 million guaranteed this off-season, even with Tom Brady available as an interested potential replacement. Given the size of his contract and how successful this team was when he played well last season, the big question becomes whether or not Tannehill can keep this up beyond a single season or if his 2019 will prove to be a fluke. 

As well as Tannehill played last season, it’s important to remember he never topped a 93.5 QB rating in 7 seasons in Miami (88 starts) and that he was available via trade last off-season and no one, including the Titans at the time, were interested in him as an outright starter and even the Titans only took a chance at a base salary of 2 million. You can definitely argue that Tannehill had the best supporting cast of his career last season, but it’s still unlikely he’s suddenly become an elite quarterback overnight, now already in his age 32 season. I would expect him to play better in 2020 than he did in any season in Miami, but likely significantly worse than he played in 2019.

With Mariota signing with the Raiders this off-season, the Titans needed to find a new backup quarterback, but didn’t do anything to address the position outside of using a 7th round pick on Hawaii’s Cole McDonald, who will likely be too raw to be the #2 as a rookie. Instead, the most likely #2 is Logan Woodside, a 2018 7th round pick who has been on the practice squad for his whole career and has never thrown a pass. The Titans must like him somewhat to be comfortable with him as the backup right now, but he’d almost definitely struggle if he had to see action. The Titans will need Tannehill to stay healthy, even if he’s unlikely to be as good as he was last season.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As I mentioned, Tannehill had a strong supporting cast around him last season. It’s impossible to talk about that supporting cast without starting with running back Derrick Henry, who, aside from Tannehill, was the biggest reason for this team’s offensive turnaround, rushing for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns on 190 carries (5.92 YPC) in his final 9 games of the season after 416 yards and 4 touchdowns on 113 carries (3.68 YPC) in the first 6 games of the season. Henry then added 83 carries for 446 yards (5.37 YPC) and 2 touchdowns during the Titans’ 3-game playoff run, in which he was the obvious feature of this offense. In total, Henry rushed for 1,570 yards and 18 touchdowns on 273 carries in 12 games that he played with Tannehill, a ridiculous 364/2093/24 pace over 16 games.

Some of that had to do with Tannehill making defenses respect the pass, but Henry also had Pro Football Focus’ highest rushing grade against 8-man boxes and he has a history of getting much better as the season goes on, rushing for 759 yards and 10 touchdowns on 125 carries (6.07 YPC) in his final 8 games of the season in 2018 after 300 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries (3.33 YPC) in the first 8 games of the season. Much like how he was PFF’s #3 ranked running back in rushing grade from week 8 and beyond in 2019, Henry ranked #1 in rushing grade during that 8-game stretch in 2018. It’s likely Henry would have seen his production increase drastically down the stretch even without Tannehill in the lineup, although Tannehill obviously helped.

Normally I don’t put much stock into certain players being better at certain times a year, but, given Henry’s unique running style, it makes sense that he would get better as the season goes on and defenses tire out, as they simply become unable to bring him down consistently late in the season. Given that, it’s likely that Henry will again struggle by his standards early in the 2020 season, before hitting his stride late in the year. That could easily still be enough to put him in the mix for the rushing title on a team that figures to feed him the rock regularly, but I wouldn’t expect him to pick up quite where he left off.

All in all, Henry has totalled a 5.02 YPC average and 28 touchdowns on 518 carries over the past 2 seasons. The 2016 2nd round pick wasn’t as good in his first 2 seasons in the league, averaging 4.31 YPC and scoring 10 touchdowns on 286 carries, but he’s consistently been able to keep this offense on track, finishing in the top-17 in carry success rate in all 4 seasons. He’s also consistently been a physical runner who gets significant yardage after contact, with a 3.77 YPC average after contact for his career, including a 4.19 YPC after over the past 2 seasons, with 103 broken tackles. Despite that, he has missed just 1 game in his career due to injury and he obviously doesn’t wear out as the season goes on. As a pure runner, he’s obviously one of the best in the entire league.

Like Tannehill, Henry was a free agent this off-season and, like Tannehill, the Titans obviously did not want to lose him, as he’s such a big part of their offense. Once Tannehill was locked in on a long-term extension ahead of free agency, that allowed the Titans to make the no brainer decision to apply the franchise tag to Henry and keep him for at least one season at a 10.278 million dollar guaranteed salary. Like many high level running backs, the decision of whether or not to pay Henry at the top of the running back market is a tricky one, given their short career spans and the ease of finding replacement level running backs, but it’s hard to imagine the Titans aren’t going to come to terms with such a key offensive player on a long-term deal.

One area where Henry does not play well is in the passing game, as he’s totaled just 33 catches over the past 2 seasons and 57 catches for his career, while receiving a below average grade from PFF for his pass catching in all 4 seasons in the league. Dion Lewis has served as the passing down back over the past two seasons, putting up slash lines of 59/400/1 and 25/164/1 respectively, but he’s no longer with the team. The Titans used a third round pick on running back Darrynton Evans, who could fill that passing down role, although he’ll need to learn to pick up NFL blitzes quickly. 

Henry could easily see a career high in catches if he’s used more in the passing game without a true replacement for Lewis on the roster, but he’ll need to get a rest sometime and it’s hard to see the Titans taking him off the field in too many running situations, so it makes sense that Evans would see the majority of the passing game work. Evans probably won’t take many carries away from Henry, but his third round draft status suggests the Titans may view him as long-term insurance in case they can’t get a deal done with Henry. He does have the potential to be a starter long-term and he’s likely not a bad backup in the meantime. With Henry leading the way, this is a dominant backfield.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another reason why this offense got better down the stretch was the emergence of second round rookie AJ Brown, who broke out as a legitimate #1 receiver in just his first season in the league. Brown never surpassed 40 snaps in a game in his first 8 games of the season, but still managed to put up a 52/1051/8 slash line on the season, including a 38/778/6 slash line in 10 games with Tannehill (61/1245/10 extrapolated over 16 games).

Some of that increased production was because of the quarterback switch, but Brown also played at a high level himself, finishing 9th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in overall grade. In terms of yards per route run, he ranked 3rd among wide receivers with 2.67. Brown is still relatively unproven and he’s unlikely to be as efficient in 2020, especially since Ryan Tannehill unlikely to be as efficient under center, but Brown looks like an obvious #1 receiver long-term and he could exceed last year’s numbers due to increased volume.

The rest of this group was pretty underwhelming with their production, with no one else exceeding 601 receiving yards, but that’s unsurprising for secondary passing options on a run heavy offense and they still got solid play overall from their complementary receivers. Corey Davis (713 snaps), Tajae Sharpe (431 snaps), and Adam Humphries (375 snaps) all earned average or better grades from PFF and they averaged a respectable 1.48, 1.42, and 1.40 yards per route run respectively. Sharpe is no longer with the team and they didn’t replace him, so they’ll need their top-3 receivers to all stay healthy this season, with unproven speedster Khalif Raymond (148 snaps in 4 seasons in the league) likely to be the 4th receiver.

Humphries did not stay healthy last season, limited to 375 snaps in 12 games, but he wasn’t bad when on the field and he topped 600 yards receiving in each of his three previous seasons prior to last season, posting middling grades in 2016 and 2017, when he had slash lines of 55/622/2 and 61/631/1 respectively, and then having a career best 76/816/5 line and finishing as PFF’s 31st ranked wide receiver in 2018. Still only in his age 27 season, Humphries could easily bounce back to being a consistent slot receiver if he can stay healthy in 2020.

Corey Davis, meanwhile, will remain the primary outside receiver opposite AJ Brown. In many ways, Brown is what Davis was supposed to be, as Davis was selected 5th overall by the Titans in the 2017 NFL Draft. Instead, Davis hasn’t been a standout and it’s understandable that the Titans would want to decline his 5th year option for 2021, given that it would have guaranteed him 15.68 million for injury, which would make him one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league.

Injuries haven’t really been a problem for Davis outside of his rookie year when he was limited to a mediocre 34/375/0 slash line in 11 games, but he hasn’t shown himself to be worth top end wide receiver money either, putting up on underwhelming 65/891/4 slash line as the #1 option on a bad passing offense in 2018 and then settling in as the #2 option on a good passing offense in 2019, posting a 43/601/2 slash line. Still only in his age 25 season, Davis still has upside and the Titans could still try to sign him long-term, but he could stand to make a good amount of money if he takes a step forward, which might price him out of the Titans’ range.

Tight end Jonnu Smith had a 35/439/3 slash line last season, seemingly underwhelming, but on a per route run basis he actually greatly outperformed all of the wide receivers except Brown, averaging 1.83 yards per route run, 8th highest at his position. The problem is Smith didn’t get a lot of opportunity to run routes, splitting playing time with Delanie Walker for half the season and primarily operating as a blocker when he did play, not only playing 53.2% of his snaps on run plays, but also staying in to block as a 6th pass protector on 24.1% of his pass snaps. All in all, he ran a route on just 35.5% of his 701 snaps, despite showing significant potential as a pass catcher. He also showed his athleticism on 4 carries, taking them for 78 yards, which is not terribly common for a tight end.

Smith is a one-year wonder in terms of even playing well in limited action as a receiver though, as he struggled as a pass catcher in his first 2 seasons in the league in 2017 and 2018 (1.01 yards per route run) and has never been a particularly good blocker either. Still, he’s a former 3rd round pick who has always had upside and he’s still in only his age 25 season, so he deserves a larger target share in 2020. He should get at least a small bump from Delanie Walker being gone, even if Walker was limited to 7 games last season, but the Titans should also strongly consider leaving Smith in to block less in passing situations and making use of his athleticism in the seam more often.

With Walker gone, Mycole Pruitt looks likely to be the #2 tight end. Given how much time Walker missed last season, Pruitt basically already was the #2 tight end, ranking 2nd on the team among tight ends with 441 snaps played. He didn’t show much in that role, as he was middling at best as a blocker and caught just 6 passes, which brings his career total to just 27 in 5 seasons in the league. This season, I wouldn’t expect much more than his career high of 10 catches and he’s unlikely to improve significantly as a blocker either, already in his age 28 season. His primary competition will be Anthony Firkser, who has shown promise over the past 2 seasons, but the 2017 undrafted free agent has still only played 379 snaps in his career and is highly unproven. Depth is a concern, but this is a solid top group, led by young #1 receiver AJ Brown.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Titans did a good job of keeping most of this offense together, but one key player who is no longer with the team is right tackle Jack Conklin, who signed a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal with the Browns this off-season. It’s understandable the Titans had trouble keeping Conklin after paying Tannehill and tagging Henry, but he’ll still be a big loss, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked offensive tackle last season and was only heading into his age 26 season. Fortunately, the Titans have a couple potential options to replace him, re-signing talented swing tackle Dennis Kelly in free agency and using the 29th overall pick on Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson, a massive 6-6 350 pounder with a high ceiling. 

Wilson’s draft slot would suggest he’ll start as a rookie, but I wouldn’t rule out Kelly getting the nod, at least to begin the season. Kelly is going into his age 30 season with just 31 career starts and he’s never gotten an extended run as a starter outside of his rookie season in 2012, when he was overmatched as a 10-game starter, but he’s been solid as a spot starter throughout the rest of his career, especially over the past two seasons (9 starts). His 3-year, 17.25 million dollar contract suggests the Titans view him as a starter and, while that was before the Titans drafted Wilson, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the veteran beats out the rookie in training camp. Regardless of who wins this job, the loser will be a very highly qualified swing tackle.

Even though Dennis Kelly was solid in 4 starts in place of Taylor Lewan to start last season, the Titans still got a big boost when he returned, which is another reason why they were so much better offensively down the stretch. Lewan finished 21st among offensive tackles on PFF, his 5th straight season in the top-22 at his position in as many seasons as a starter (74 starts). Lewan was a first round pick in 2014 and, unlike fellow former first round pick Jack Conklin, the Titans locked Lewan up long-term two off-seasons ago on a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal that makes him the 5th highest paid offensive tackle in the NFL. It’s hard to argue he’s not worth it and, still only in his age 29 season, he’s still very much in his prime.

The interior of this offensive line remains the same, with Rodger Saffold, Ben Jones, and Nate Davis starting at left guard, center, and right guard respectively. In the case of right guard, continuity isn’t a good thing, as Davis struggled mightily last season, finishing 86th out of 88 qualifying guards on PFF and at one point getting benched for career backup Jamil Douglas, who unsurprisingly wasn’t much better, playing his first offensive snaps since 2015. Davis was just a third round rookie, so he could be better in his 2nd season in the league, but he’s hardly a guarantee to ever develop into a capable starter.

Saffold and Jones, on the other hand, are coming off of strong seasons, finishing 16th among guards and 3rd among centers on PFF respectively. For Saffold, that was actually a down year compared to 2017 and 2018, when he finished 5th and 7th respectively among guards, but he’s on the wrong side of 30, going into his age 32 season, and, though he’s been a consistent above average starter for several years, he’s probably unlikely to match his career best years again at this stage in his career. 

Jones is also getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season and, while he didn’t show any signs of dropoff in a career best year last year, that’s a double edged sword as it’s also unlikely he’ll match the best season of his career at his age, especially since he’s never finished higher than 12th among centers in any of his other seasons in the league. Both on the wrong side of 30, Jones and Saffold are likely to take a step backward this season and the Titans lost right tackle Jack Conklin as well, so this is unlikely to be the same caliber of offensive line as last season, which will hurt this offense as a whole, but they should remain a solid group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Titans’ offense got significantly better as the season went on, their defense went the other way, allowing a 37.89% first down rate over their final 10 regular season games, compared to a 30.93% first down rate in their first 6 regular season games. Their offense played so well over that 10-game stretch that their defensive issues weren’t as noticeable, but if the Titans’ offense is likely to be less efficient on offense this season due to likely regression at the quarterback position and a diminished offensive line, they’ll need their defense to bounce back to compensate if they are going to continue being legitimate contenders like they ended up being down the stretch last season.

Injuries were a big part of the problem down the stretch last season. The Titans didn’t have substantially more injuries than an average team, but the players they lost were some of their best, as from week 9 on, top defensive lineman Jurrell Casey (2 games), top edge rusher Cameron Wake (5 games), and starting outside cornerbacks Adoree Jackson (4 games) and Malcolm Butler (7 games) all missed significant time with injury. Brown, Jackson, and Butler return, but the Titans did have some significant losses on defense this off-season that will make returning to their former level a problem. No off-season loss was more significant than Jurrell Casey, who was still their best defensive lineman in an injury plagued down year.

Casey is going into his age 31 season and had a down year by his standards last year, but for a player who finished in the top-19 among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus in 4 straight seasons prior to last season, a down year still means he ranked 26th among interior defenders, so it’s surprising the Titans moved him in what amounted to a salary dump, getting a 7th round pick and getting out of the 11.85 million he would have been owed if they had kept him. Casey wasn’t really replaced this off-season, with the Titans only adding veteran rotational player Jack Crawford, and the Titans also lost situational run stuffer Austin Johnson, who was capable across 325 snaps last season, so this is a much thinner position group than last season.

Given their lack of depth, holdovers Daquan Jones and Jeffrey Simmons will have to play larger roles in 2020. Simmons has the biggest room for growth as the 2019 first round pick was limited to 305 snaps in 9 games in an injury plagued rookie season, but fared well when on the field and still has the potential to develop into an above average every down player long-term. He’ll have plenty of opportunity with Casey gone and figures to more or less take over Casey’s old role (53.1 snaps per game over the past 7 seasons), though it’s far from a guarantee that Simmons will be able to match Casey’s level of play in such a big role in just his second season in the league.

Daquon Jones, meanwhile, is probably overstretched as it is, playing 679 snaps last season when he’s best as a situational run stuffer. Jones has a nose tackle’s frame at 6-4 322 and has earned an above average grade as a run stuffer from PFF in five straight seasons, including a 15th ranked finish among interior defenders in that aspect in 2019, but he’s managed just 7 sacks and a 5.7% pressure rate for his career. Jones thrives in his base package nose tackle role, but is a liability when left on the field in sub packages, something the Titans will likely have to do even more out of necessity this season. Last year’s 679 snaps were a career high and it wouldn’t surprise me if he surpassed that total in 2020.

Veteran free agent acquisition Jack Crawford will primarily compete with Matt Dickerson and Isaiah Mack and all three are very underwhelming options. Crawford has been in the league 8 seasons, but he’s averaged just 311 snaps per season and has consistently struggled as both a pass rusher (6.5% pressure rate) and a run stuffer. Last season with the Falcons he finished 117th among 125 qualifying interior defenders on 431 snaps and now he’s going into his age 32 season. 

Dickerson and Mack, meanwhile, are former undrafted free agents (2018 and 2019) respectively who have shown very little thus far in their careers. Mack at least showed some promise on 172 snaps last season, but Dickerson has been very underwhelming in 83 snaps over two seasons. I would expect both to surpass their career highs in snaps and for Crawford to play a similar amount to the 431 snaps he played last season, as the Titans have a big depth problem at this position. In addition to their depth problem, they also lack a top end player with Jurrell Casey gone, so this is an underwhelming position group.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Titans also lost edge rusher Cameron Wake this off-season. That might not seem like a big deal, considering he played just 195 snaps in 9 games last season, but 183 of those snaps came on passing plays and he managed 2.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 17.1% pressure rate in his limited action. When he wasn’t on the field, the Titans consistently struggled to get pressure on the quarterback in obvious passing situations. Without him, the Titans desperately needed to find edge rush help this off-season.

To fill that need, the Titans signed ex-Falcon Vic Beasley to a 1-year, 9.5 million dollar deal, which is a curious contract. Beasley is a former first round pick who led the NFL with 15.5 sacks in his second season in the league in 2016, but he wasn’t as good as his sack total suggested that year, managing just a 11.9% pressure rate, struggling against the run, and finishing 22nd among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, which is good, but not as good as you’d expect from someone with 15.5 sacks. That year also stands out as an obvious outlier in his career, as he’s consistently struggled against the run and has just a 9.6% pressure rate for his career. 

The Titans are paying a lot of money on a one-year deal for a guy who has had one good year in five seasons and if he does happen to have another good year in 2020 they’ll have to pay even more to keep him long-term next off-season. I would consider it unlikely he develops into a consistently above average starter, 4 years removed from his last good season and already going into his age 28 season, but if this was a 2-3 year deal that only guaranteed his first year I would have seen the upside. This only being a one-year deal limits the potential upside significantly.

Beasley will start opposite Harold Landry, a third year player who will remain in an every down role. Not only did Landry play every down last season, he actually ranked 3rd in the NFL in snaps played by an edge defender with 953. The Titans have said they want to get that number down this season and that’s probably a good idea, as Landry is likely to be more efficient on a more reasonable snap count. 

Landry earned a slightly above average grade from PFF in 2019 and led the team with 9 sacks, but for as much as he played he arguably should have had more sacks and his 9.9% pressure rate left something to be desired. A 2018 2nd round pick, Landry still has good upside as an edge defender long-term and could take a step forward in 2020. Between that and a likely smaller snap count, Landry should become a more efficient pass rusher this season.

Landry and Beasley are both still likely to play significant snap counts though, as the Titans’ depth is questionable on the edge, in addition to on the interior. Behind Landry, Kamalei Correa (432 snaps) and Reggie Gilbert (294 snaps) were 2nd and 3rd respectively on the Titans among edge defenders in snaps played, but they hardly got to the quarterback, totalling 6 sacks, 3 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate. Both were adequate run stuffers, but little else and that’s been the case for them their whole careers, as they have pressure rates of 7.4% of 8.4% respectively in their 4 years in the league. Even as reserves, both are underwhelming options.

Rashaan Evans, who primarily plays off ball linebacker inside in the Titans’ 3-4 defense, also played some snaps off the edge last season and the Titans have said they want to use him more in that position in passing situations in 2020. It makes some sense, given the Titans’ lack of edge rush depth and given that Evans has struggled mightily in coverage in two seasons, but he hasn’t shown much more as a pass rusher and him moving to the edge more often says more about their lack of depth on the edge than anything.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Titans also lost depth at linebacker this off-season as Wesley Woodyard, a capable situational player who saw 325 snaps last season, is no longer with the team. With Woodyard gone and Evans playing on the edge more often, the Titans have a big depth problem at linebacker and could regularly use three safeties in sub packages to compensate. Base packages won’t be a problem because Rashaan Evans, a 2018 first round pick, has consistently been an above average run stuffer in two years in the league, while fellow starter Jayon Brown is an every down player who fares well both in coverage and against the run, but Evans has yet to find a sub package role he can fare well in on this defense and their top true reserve linebacker is 2019 6th round pick David Long, who played just 68 snaps as a rookie.

Jayon Brown is the biggest bright spot in this group, as the 2017 5th round pick has developed into an above average starter over the past 2 seasons, finishing 7th and 17th respectively among off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus, after a rough rookie year. He’s best in coverage, but the 6-0 226 pounder isn’t a liability on the ground either and, only going into his age 25 season, he has the ability to continue developing. The Titans would be wise to lock him up long-term ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2020. He significantly elevates this group by himself.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Titans’ have issues in their defensive front, but their secondary should be their strongest unit. They had problems defending the pass down the stretch last season, but this season they get starting cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler back after they were limited to 11 games and 9 games respectively last season, which is an obvious boost, as both players received above average grades from Pro Football Focus when on the field last season. Jackson was the better of the two last season, finishing 15th among cornerbacks on PFF, and the 2017 first round pick has the brighter future too, only in his age 25 season, with 35th and 30th ranked finishes in his first two seasons in the league also on his resume. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jackson had his best year yet in 2020.

Butler, on the other hand, is coming off the worst year of his career, finishing 57th among cornerbacks on PFF, just slightly above average. He also had a 55th ranked finish in his first season in Tennessee in 2018, after finishing 25th, 6th, and 46th his final three seasons in New England. Now going into his age 30 season, his best days are likely behind him, but he should remain a capable starter at the very least and his return will still be a boost for a Titans team that struggled to find a consistent replacement for him last season.

Slot cornerback Logan Ryan is no longer with the team, but he was more of a snap eater than anything and the Titans did a pretty good job replacing him, signing veteran Johnathan Joseph and using a 2nd round pick on LSU’s Kristian Fulton. Joseph has been a long-time above average starter in this league, making 14 starts in 186 seasons with the Bengals and Texans, and he finished 12th among cornerbacks on PFF as recently as 2018, but he fell to 64th in 2019 and is now in his age 36 season, so he could easily continue declining. He’ll have a chance to win the #3 cornerback job with the Titans to start the season, but Fulton was a good value with the 61st overall pick and should find his way on the field sooner rather than later, leaving Joseph as a reserve. Going four deep at cornerback certainly isn’t a problem though.

At safety, the Titans go three deep, which is why they’ll likely use three safeties in sub packages frequently to mask their lack of linebacker depth. They did this occasionally last season and third safety Amani Hooker showed himself to be pretty capable on 335 snaps, 89.9% of which came in passing situations. Hooker was just a 4th round rookie, but he was a strong value where he was taken and could easily develop into a starter long-term or at least a capable third safety. He’s also versatile and can play the slot if needed, so he should find a way to exceed last year’s snap total.

Kevin Byard and Kenny Vacarro remain as the starters, after playing 98.7% and 95.5% of the snaps last season. Vacarro is primarily a box safety and has the size at 6-0 214 to play some linebacker in sub packages, though he was below average on PFF in coverage grade last season. His issues in coverage have been pretty consistent throughout his career, but on the flip side of that he’s also finished above average against the run in 5 straight seasons. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, you can certainly find worse starting safeties than Vacarro.

Byard, meanwhile, plays deep more often and is one of the top safeties in the league in that role, as his 17 interceptions over the past three seasons rank lead the NFL over that stretch and he has finished in the top-14 overall among safeties on PFF in all three of those seasons. Byard led the league in interceptions with 8 in just his second season in the league in 2017 and, though he has “just” 9 over the past two seasons, that’s largely because quarterbacks have stopped throwing at him, targeting him just 66 times total in two seasons after 47 in 2017 alone. He headlines a strong unit that is the saving grace of this defense.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Titans were one of the better teams in the league by season’s end last year, but there are reasons to expect their offense to not quite be as efficient in 2020, with Ryan Tannehill likely to regress and an offensive line that looks likely to be noticeably worse. Their defense wasn’t particularly good down the stretch last season, but it’s unlikely they’ll be better this season to compensate for offensive regression, as they got rid of their top defensive lineman Jurrell Casey and are very underwhelming on the defensive front, especially if injuries strike, as they lack depth across the board. The Titans will be in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC, especially with three wild card spots available, but I have them behind the Colts in the division and I wouldn’t consider them true contenders.  I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Titans get a big boost from signing Jadeveon Clowney, who fills a huge need on the edge. I still have them slightly behind the Colts in the AFC South, but the Titans are definitely a candidate to go on another deep playoff run, even if they have to do it as a wild card again.

Projection: 11-5 (2nd in AFC South)

Jacksonville Jaguars 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

It’s hard to believe, but the Jaguars were in the AFC Championship during the 2017 season, a season in which they finished 2nd in first down rate differential at +5.95%. Just two seasons later in 2019, the Jaguars fell to 6-10 and were even worse than that suggests, finishing dead last in first down rate differential at -6.64%. How did it fall apart so quickly? Well, that 2017 team was built around a defense that ranked 1st in first down rate allowed and that defense got too expensive to keep together, while their offense was only able to have a middling season in 2017 (14th in first down rate) because they got a surprisingly competent season out of quarterback Blake Bortles against a very easy schedule.

In 2018, with a much tougher schedule, Bortles struggled and eventually lost his job at the end of the season, leading to the Jaguars starting Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew at quarterback in 2019. With the Foles/Minshew duo under center, the Jaguars ranked 29th in first down rate, while their hollowed out defense ranked 28th in first down rate allowed. The Jaguars’ defense, which I’ll get into later, lost even more this off-season, leaving them with just 3 of their top-14 in terms of snaps played from their 2017 defense, but this offense looks equally concerning. 

The Jaguars traded Foles to the Bears this off-season, getting out of his 15.6 million dollar salary, as the Jaguars go into full cost cutting rebuild mode. On both sides of the ball, this season looks like it will be more about getting a high draft pick, letting young players play, and rebuilding cap space for the future after years of cap hell, which they’ve already done in a big way, with the third most projected available cap space in the league for 2021.

With Foles gone and only career backup Mike Glennon behind Minshew on the depth chart, this is officially Minshew’s job going into his second season in the league. Minshew might never develop into a long-term starter, but in many ways he’s a perfect quarterback for this team right now, because he’s inexpensive, he has upside, and if he struggles it will only help this team’s draft position. 

After falling to the sixth round, Minshew had his moments as a rookie and finished with 60.6% completion, 6.96 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, but he got worse as the season went on, ranking 26th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus from week 6 on, and he may still project best as a backup long-term, as the history of late round picks becoming long-term starters is very limited. Minshew will get an extended tryout for a team that figures to not win many games either way and he comes with some upside, but I wouldn’t expect much from him or this offense in 2020.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

Minshew didn’t really have much help around him last season, but he did show a good rapport with second year wide receiver DJ Chark. Chark finished the season with a 73/1008/8 slash line on 118 targets, while averaging 1.69 yards per route run and earning Pro Football Focus’ 27th highest wide receiver grade. Chark is a total one-year wonder who barely made an impact on 291 snaps as a rookie in 2018, but he came into the league with a high ceiling and, while there’s some chance of regression from him this season, there’s also a chance he keeps getting better, only in his age 24 season.

The rest of this receiving corps was pretty underwhelming though, as Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook both earned middling grades as the other two wide receivers in 3 wide receiver sets, averaging 1.33 yards per route run and 1.20 yards per route run respectively, while their tight end production was among the worst in the league, with just 53 tight end completions. In order to try to improve this group, the Jaguars used a 2nd round pick on Colorado wide receiver Laviska Shenault and signed veteran tight end Tyler Eifert to a 2-year, 9.5 million dollar deal in free agency, who could both play significant roles.

At wide receiver, Shenault is expected to compete for playing time with Conley and Westbrook right away. A 4th round pick in 2017, Westbrook has been a solid, but unspectacular player across 38 career games, averaging a 67/723/4 slash line per 16 games, and earning average or better grades from PFF in all 3 seasons, while Conley’s underwhelming 2019 season was actually his career best, as the 2015 3rd round pick has earned middling at best grades across 5 seasons with the Chiefs and Jaguars. Conley is the more likely one to lose playing time to Shenault, especially since Westbrook is the Jaguars best option to play the slot. The Jaguars also have Keelan Cole, who has some starting experience, as a valuable reserve and he could see some situational snaps as well.

At tight end, the Jaguars are hoping Eifert can form a solid duo with 2019 3rd round pick Josh Oliver. Oliver’s rookie year was ruined by injuries, as he was limited to just 117 mediocre snaps in 4 games, but the Jaguars are still high on his future and he could easily take a big step forward in his second season if he’s healthy. Health has been a problem for Eifert throughout his career, as he’s missed 53 of 112 games in 7 seasons in the league. The former first round pick showed high end ability when healthy, posting a 52/615/13 slash line in 13 games in 2015 and finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked tight end, but then he was limited to just 14 games over the next three seasons combined. 

Eifert then played all 16 games for the first time in his career last season, but all of the injuries seemed to have taken their toll, as Eifert earned a middling grade from PFF and had just a 43/436/3 slash line. Now going into his age 30 season, it’s likely his best days are behind him and he’s hardly a guarantee to make it through all 16 games again. If both are healthy, Eifert and Josh Oliver are, by default, an upgrade over what the Jaguars had at tight end last season, but they come with a lot of uncertainty, so the Jaguars will need someone to step up at wide receiver if they’re going to have a consistent 2nd option behind DJ Chark.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Without much passing game production from the tight ends last season, running back Leonard Fournette finished 4th on the team in receiving yards with a 76/522/0, but that was more the product of opportunity than anything, as Fournette managed just 5.22 yards per target on 100 targets. Fournette’s passing game struggles are nothing new, as he’s averaged just 5.80 yards per target in 3 seasons in the league, which is why he was barely used in the passing game in his first two seasons in the league, but last season he was used frequently for lack of a better option.

The Jaguars don’t seem to want to do that again, bringing in ex-Redskins pass catching specialist Chris Thompson, who has averaged a 55/465/2 slash line per 16 games over the past 5 seasons. Thompson is highly unreliable when it comes to staying on the field though, missing 20 games over the past 5 seasons combined, including at least 5 games in 3 straight seasons, and he’s unlikely to suddenly become more durable now in his age 30 season, so it’s very likely Fournette will have to be an every down back again at some point in 2020.

Fournette has been better as a runner in his career than he’s been as a receiver, but he’s hardly been what the Jaguars were hoping for when they used the 4th overall pick on him in 2017, rushing for 2,631 yards and 17 touchdowns on 666 carries (3.95 YPC) and posting middling rushing grades on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons in the league. This off-season Jaguars declined Fournette’s 5th year option for 2021, which would have guaranteed him 8.483 million for injury, and unsuccessfully tried to trade him on draft day, so his time with the team seems to be coming to a close, but in the meantime he should continue being the clear lead back on a team without another good rushing option.

Chris Thompson could see some action as a change of pace back and the speedster has an impressive 4.78 YPC average in 7 seasons in the league, but the diminutive 5-8 195 pounder has never topped 68 carries in a season and lacks the size and durability to carry a load. Given that, 2019 5th round pick Ryquell Armstead could be the Jaguars’ #2 back this season in terms of carries, but he showed very little as a rookie (3.09 YPC on 35 carries) to suggest he deserves a larger role, even with Fournette being an underwhelming starter. The addition of Chris Thompson helps this backfield, but this is still a questionable group, especially given Thompson’s inability to stay healthy in his career.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Jaguars also had underwhelming play on their offensive line last season, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked run blocking team and their 24th ranked pass blocking team. The Jaguars didn’t really do much to upgrade this group this off-season though, so it should look largely the same in 2020. The one position which could potentially be different is right guard, where the Jaguars actually rotated a couple players last season, AJ Cann and Will Richardson.

Both players struggled mightily last season, especially Richardson who also saw some action at tackle and is expected to move to tackle full-time in 2020. Richardson, a 4th round pick in 2018, could still get better after face planting in his first career action last season, but Cann, while he’s more proven with 75 career starts, has never received more than a middling grade from PFF and is unlikely to get better, now in his 6th season in the league. With Richardson moving to tackle, he will be replaced at guard by 4th round rookie Ben Bratch, who will compete with and may rotate with AJ Cann at right guard, despite being raw. Regardless of who plays at right guard, it figures to be a position of weakness.

Richardson is likely to be a reserve at tackle, even though left tackle was a position of weakness with left tackle Cam Robinson finishing 75th out of 89 qualifying tackles on PFF. Robinson came into the league with high expectations with the 34th overall pick and he took over as the starting left tackle as a rookie, but hasn’t lived up to those expectations, struggling as a rookie in addition, finishing 81st out of 92nd qualifying tackles on PFF, and missing almost all of 2018 with a torn ACL before last year’s poor performance. 

Robinson still has upside, only in his age 25 season, another year removed from his ACL tear, but it’s possible he never develops into an even an average starter. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is also a former 2nd round pick, going 35th overall in 2019, and his development has gone better, as he was about an average starter in 16 rookie year starts at right tackle and could take a step forward in his second season in the league. It’s possible the Jaguars could flip their offensive tackles at some point if Robinson continues to struggle, but it’s unclear if Taylor would be as good at left tackle and Robinson wouldn’t necessarily be better at right tackle.

Center Brandon Linder was the best player on this unit last season, finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked center while playing all but 7 snaps on the season. Playing at a high level is nothing new for him, as he’s finished in the top-7 among centers on PFF in 4 straight seasons (52 starts) since moving there from right guard, where he also had some success. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Linder should continue being one of the better centers in the league in 2020 and is probably the Jaguars’ best offensive player.

Left guard Andrew Norwell also has a history of success, finishing in the top-25 among guards on PFF in all 6 seasons in the league, including a pair of top-10 finishes in 2015 and 2017. Norwell hasn’t been quite as good since joining the Jaguars from the Panthers two off-seasons ago on a 5-year, 66.5 million dollar deal, but he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season and he should continue being at least an above average starter going forward. Linder and Norwell elevate this offensive line, but this should remain an underwhelming group in 2020, having made few changes this off-season.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jaguars struggled mightily on defense last season, finishing 28th in first down rate allowed at 38.50%, a drastic change from their #1 ranked defense of 2017. Even in 2018 in a disappointing season the Jaguars still finished 5th in first down rate allowed. In 2019, they actually got off to a pretty decent start, ranking 13th in first down rate allowed at 35.71% through the first 6 games of the season, but the wheels fell off when the Jaguars traded cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Rams ahead of week 7, as the Jaguars had the NFL’s 3rd worst first down rate allowed at 40.19% from that point on. 

This off-season, the Jaguars continued to shed talent as part of their rebuilding strategy. AJ Bouye, traded to the Broncos for a 4th round pick ahead of a 13.5 million non-guaranteed owed, and Marcell Dareus, released ahead of 20 million non-guaranteed owed, aren’t huge losses as both were middling players last season, but the Jaguars also sent Calais Campbell to the Ravens, even though he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked interior defender last season, and got just a 5th round pick for him, moving him purely to avoid paying him 15 million for his age 34 season. He’s obviously a significant loss for this defense. All in all, the Jaguars are left with just 3 defenders from their top-14 in terms of snaps played from that dominant 2017 unit and they could easily be one of the worst defenses in the league in 2020.

One of those three who remains is edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, although it remains to be seen how long that will be in the case for, as Ngakoue has yet to sign his franchise tag tender and has demanded to be traded, with the Jaguars seemingly unwilling to pay him what he wants long-term. Ngakoue apparently wants to be paid in the Khalil Mack/Aaron Donald range (22+ million annually) as one of the highest paid defensive players in the league, so it’s understandable the Jaguars wouldn’t want to pay him at that level, as he struggles against the run and has only once finished higher than 33rd among edge defenders on PFF in 4 seasons in the league, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and he has 37.5 sacks, 56 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate for his career, so Ngakoue would likely get that kind of money from someone if he were available on the open market, given how young pass rushers are valued in this league.

Finding a team willing to give Ngakoue that kind of deal and give up a premium pick for him is the tricky part and the Jaguars unsurprisingly had no takers at their first round asking price on draft day and have yet to move him. It’s possible they still will move him for a future draft pick before the season starts, rather than losing him for nothing next off-season, especially since the Jaguars don’t seem to be trying to be competitive in 2020 anyway, but if the Jaguars don’t move him Ngakoue’s only option would be to holdout, which is possible, but his 17,788 million dollar guaranteed salary on the franchise tag may ultimately be tough to turn down. Even if he isn’t Khalil Mack or Aaron Donald, he would still have a big impact on this pass rush if he remains on the roster in 2020.

Possibly seeing the writing on the wall with Ngakoue long-term, the Jaguars used the 20th overall pick, one of the two first rounders they received for Jalen Ramsey, on LSU edge defender K’Lavon Chaisson, their second straight season using a first round pick on an edge defender, with Kentucky’s Josh Allen going 7th overall in 2019. Allen didn’t reach the same heights as fellow rookie edge defender Nick Bosa, with whom Allen was frequently compared before the draft, but Allen had a solid rookie year in his own right, earning a slightly above average grade from PFF, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate. 

Only going into his age 23 season, Allen has a sky high ceiling and could easily take a step forward in 2020 on his way to becoming one of the better edge defenders in the league a few years down the line. Chaisson isn’t as clean of a prospect as Allen was and will likely have growing pains as a rookie, but he too has a high ceiling, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Chaisson and Allen developed into one of the best edge defender duos in the league at some point in the future.

If Ngakoue is traded or holds out, the Jaguars would likely turn to veteran Cassius Marsh, who they signed in free agency this off-season, or 4th year player Dawuane Smoot, who is going into his 4th year with the Jaguars since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2017. Despite being a relatively high pick, Smoot has shown very little in 3 years in the league, playing just 818 snaps and struggling both against the run and as a pass rusher (7.6% pressure rate). Going into the final year of his rookie deal, he’s entering a make or break year and is not a guarantee to lock down a role. Marsh, meanwhile, has been mediocre on an average of 455 snaps per season over the past 4 seasons as a reserve with the Seahawks, 49ers, Patriots, and most recently the Cardinals. Both are underwhelming options, but if the Jaguars can get Ngakoue on the field, this is a trio with a lot of upside, at least as pass rushers.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

With Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus both gone from this interior of this defensive line, the Jaguars will move forward with holdovers Taven Bryan (481 snaps) and Abry Jones (558 snaps), veteran free agent acquisition Rodney Gutner, and third round rookie Davon Hamilton. Bryan has the highest upside of the bunch, as he was the Jaguars’ first round pick back in 2018, making it three years in a row in which the Jaguars have taken a defensive lineman in the first round. Bryan hasn’t lived up to his draft status yet, playing just 782 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, but he’s flashed as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher and has obvious breakout potential in his third year in the league, now likely to get a shot at an every down role.

Jones is the also tenured member of the group, spending his whole 7-year NFL career with the Jaguars, including a 488 snap season on the Jaguars dominant 2017 team, making him one of those three significant players still remaining from that defense. Jones has never been more than a rotational player, as the 558 snaps he played last season were a career high, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he surpassed that total in 2020 as the nominal starter in an underwhelming group. Jones is still only in his age 29 season and he’s consistently proven to be an above average run stuffer, but his 9.5 sacks, 6 hits, and 5.1% pressure rate in 100 career games leave something to be desired in passing situations.

With Davon Hamilton entering the league as a pretty raw prospect, the veteran Rodney Gutner figures to be Jones’ biggest competition for the nominal starting job opposite Bryan. Gutner has played 641 snaps and 602 snaps over the past 2 seasons with the Cardinals, but he’s largely been a snap eater more than anything and that has been the case throughout his career, even when he played a small role back in 2015-2017. He’s not a bad player in any aspect of the game and could be valuable for a team without much depth at the position, but I wouldn’t expect big things from him. Barring a huge breakout year from Bryan, this should be an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Even with the Jaguars rebuilding, they did make one big outside financial investment this off-season, signing ex-Browns linebacker Joe Schobert to a 5-year, 53.75 million dollar deal. Schobert will team up with Myles Jack, the third remaining significant player from their 2017 defense and a player who is also well paid on a 4-year, 57 million dollar deal. In 2017, the Jaguars had Jack and the since retired Telvin Smith as their top-2 linebackers, who both played in nickel packages, and they were a big part of the Jaguars’ defensive success that season. The contract the Jaguars gave Schobert suggests they have sign expectations for him as Smith’s long-term replacement.

If Schobert plays like he did in 2018, when he finished 10th among off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus, he’ll be worth his contract, but that’s not a guarantee, as the 2016 4th round pick has never finished higher than 30th at his position on PFF in any of his other 3 seasons in the league, including a 57th ranked finish in 2019. He’s a good coverage linebacker and was especially dominant in coverage in 2018, allowing a ridiculous 0.42 yards per route run, lowest at his position, but he tends to struggle against the run, especially last season, and his 57 missed tackles over the past 3 seasons definitely stand out as a problem. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he was consistently a solid every down player, but it’s likely his 2018 season will end up being his career best when all is said and done.

Jack is also coming off of a disappointing year, finishing 87th out of 100 qualifying off ball linebackers on PFF, but injuries were largely to blame in a season in which he was limited to 613 snaps in 11 games and, prior to last season, Jack had finished above average on PFF in back-to-back season as a starter. Still only his age 25 season, the 2016 2nd round pick has obvious bounce back potential and could benefit from Schobert coming in to take over in the middle, allowing Jack to play in probably a more natural spot outside.

In 2017, the Jaguars also had a talented third linebacker, as veteran Paul Posluzsny was a dominant run stuffer in base packages, but he also has since retired and the Jaguars don’t have anyone like that anymore. The Jaguars used a 3rd round pick on Quincy Williams in 2019, but he was widely regarded as a reach and didn’t prove anyone wrong in a horrendous rookie season in which he finished as PFF’s 98th ranked off ball linebacker out of 100 qualifiers. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be better in 2020, but it’s tough to trust him in any role. 

Leon Jacobs, a 2018 7th round pick, has flashed in limited action thus far in his career, particularly against the run, but he’s played just 471 snaps, so he’s hardly a reliable option either. It’s also possible 4th round rookie Shaquille Quarterman could get into the mix as the third linebacker at some point this season. Schobert and Jack aren’t a bad duo, but depth is a question mark.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Jaguars’ secondary is the unit that has changed the most since 2017, as they now have a completely new unit. At safety, the starting duo of Tashaun Gipson and Barry Church, who were solid in 2017, were both let go after 2018 for salary reasons and the Jaguars then turned to inexpensive young prospects Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson to be their starting safeties in 2019 in place of Church and Gipson. Now going into 2020, Harrison and Wilson will remain the starters.

Harrison struggled in his first year as a starter, finishing 76th out of 100 qualifying safeties on Pro Football Focus, after playing 328 underwhelming snaps as a rookie in 2018. A former 3rd round pick, Harrison still has starters’ tools and could take a step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee. Wilson, meanwhile, is a 2016 undrafted free agent who flashed in 305 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league before breaking out as PFF’s 29th ranked safety in 2019. He’s a one-year wonder who might not be quite as good in 2020, but he still profiles as at least a capable starter going forward.

Cornerback was arguably the Jaguars’ best position on that dominant 2017 defense, led by Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye, who finished 2nd and 7th respectively among cornerbacks on PFF. Both are no longer with the team, being traded in the past calendar year, while slot cornerback Aaron Colvin, who also had a solid year in 2017, is long gone, having left the following off-season. 

The Jaguars did a pretty good job of replacing Colvin, signing DJ Hayden in free agency and watching him prove to be a late bloomer, as the former first round pick has earned back-to-back above average grades as the third cornerback and primary slot cover cornerback (0.77 yards per route run allowed on the slot), after struggling in the first 5 seasons of his career. With Ramsey and Bouye both gone, however, Hayden will likely have to play a larger role and could be overstretched as an every down player, especially now on the wrong side of 30.

To replace Ramsey and Bouye as the primary outside cornerbacks, the Jaguars did use a first round pick, taking Florida’s CJ Henderson 9th overall, but he’ll likely have growing pains as a rookie and their other outside cornerback options are veteran free agent addition Rashaan Melvin and holdover Tre Herndon, who would both be underwhelming options. Undrafted in 2018, Herndon struggled mightily in the first significant action of his career in 2019, finishing 107th among 135 qualifying cornerbacks on PFF across 902 snaps. 

Melvin, meanwhile, is going into his 8th season in the league, but he has been underwhelming at best in his career, aside from an impressive half season as a starter with the Colts in 2017, and he’s going into his age 31 season coming off of a 2019 season in which he finished 104th out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks with the Lions. Unless CJ Henderson has a huge rookie year, this looks like a very underwhelming secondary.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jaguars have the least expensive roster in the NFL by average annual salary and it shows. Their dominant 2017 defense is a thing of the past and should be even worse this season without Calais Campbell and others, as well as possibly Yannick Ngakoue, who wants a trade, while their offense looks to be one of the worst in the league, barring a surprising breakout year from quarterback Gardner Minshew, who has the history of late round quarterbacks in the NFL working against him. Ultimately, this team seems to be building for the future more than trying to compete in the short-term, stockpiling young talent, draft picks, and cap space for the future. The Jaguars might not be the worst team in the league this season but they’ll likely be in the mix for the #1 pick along with teams like the Redskins and Panthers. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Jaguars shed even more talent, trading away Yannick Ngakoue and Ronnie Harrison and releasing Leonard Fournette when they couldn’t find a trade partner. They’ll be lucky (or unlucky depending on the goal of their season) to win more than a couple games.

Projection: 2-14 (4th in AFC South)

Indianapolis Colts 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

At this point last year, the Colts seemed to have a bright future. In their first season under new head coach Frank Reich in 2018, the Colts went 10-6, won a playoff game, and were especially good down the stretch, winning 9 of their final 10 regular season games, after some early season injuries that led to a 1-5 start. They finished the 2018 season 5th in first down rate differential at +4.56% and, following a solid off-season in which the Colts had significant money to play with in free agency, the Colts looked like definite Super Bowl contenders going into the 2019 season. 

However, that all changed shockingly in late August, a few weeks before the season started, when Pro-Bowl quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement after a series of injury plagued seasons, hanging them up before what would have been only his age 30 season. Without Luck, the Colts still had one of the best supporting casts in the league and former backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett was one of the better backups in the league, but the drop off from Luck to Brissett was still too big for this team to overcome, as they fell short of the post-season at 7-9.

The Colts’ offense wasn’t really the problem, as they finished 10th in first down rate at 37.30%, en route to a 16th ranked finish in first down rate at +0.79%, which suggests they were slightly better than their final record. In fact, the Colts had a lot of close losses and could have won at least an extra two games if they hadn’t missed very makeable kicks. That doesn’t mean Jacoby Brissett wasn’t a problem, however, as the Colts were able to have some success offensively despite Brissett, not because of him. Despite a strong offensive supporting cast, Brissett completed just 60.8% of his passes for 6.58 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions and on Pro Football Focus he finished 33rd out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. 

The Colts were never expecting Brissett to be their starter in 2019, turning to him only after Luck’s surprise retirement, so it’s not a surprise the Colts went out and found a replacement for him this off-season, signing at least a short-term solution in Philip Rivers, who joins the Colts on a one-year, 25 million dollar deal for his age 39 season after 16 seasons with the Chargers. Rivers overall has had a Hall-of-Fame career and he has finished in the top-10 among quarterbacks on PFF in 10 of 14 seasons as a starter, while never missing a single start, but his age is obviously becoming a concern, especially off of a relatively down year in which he slid to 17th among quarterbacks on PFF. Overall, he completed 66.0% of his passes for 7.81 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions last season.

Rivers may have at least a couple years left in the tank as a starter and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Brissett, but his best days are probably behind him. Even still, with Rivers and Brissett as an above average backup behind him, this is a solid quarterback situation. Considering this offense had some success last season even with Brissett having an underwhelming season, it’s conceivable they could be one of the better offenses in the league if Rivers can be even a middle of the pack starting quarterback. 

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The biggest reason for the Colts’ success on offense last year was the running game, as the Colts understandably compensated for the loss of Andrew Luck by keeping it on the ground more, finishing the season 5th in the NFL with 471 carries, and they had a lot of success in doing so, rushing for the 7th most rushing yards in the league with 2,130 and finishing 12th in yards per carry at 4.52. Lead back Marlon Mack rushed for 1,091 yards and 8 touchdowns on 247 carries (4.42 YPC) and finished 10th in the NFL with a 52% carry success rate, which shows he was very efficient at keeping this offense on track. 

Mack gets a lot of help from an offensive line that ranked 2nd in the NFL in run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus (more on the line later), but he is a solid running back in his own right, earning an average or better grade from PFF in each of the 3 seasons he’s been in the league, since being drafted in the 4th round in 2017 (4.41 YPC and 20 touchdowns on 535 carries). Despite that, the Colts still used a high draft pick (41st overall) on Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor this off-season, suggesting they plan to remain relatively run heavy even with Rivers providing an upgrade under center.

Taylor’s addition likely means the Colts will not be paying Marlon Mack what he wants on a long-term extension, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, and in the meantime Mack and Taylor figure to split carries. How exactly it breaks out will likely be determined in training camp, the pre-season, and throughout the season, but it could ultimately be close to 50/50, as Taylor was arguably a first round talent, but Mack is a proven starter in the NFL. 

Mack and Taylor figure to get the vast majority of the carries on this season, with Jordan Wilkins (5.79 YPC on 111 carries in the past 2 seasons) providing nothing more than insurance, but passing down back Nyheim Hines figures to still have a role, as neither Mack nor Taylor are especially good in the passing game, with Mack catching just 52 passes in 40 career games and Taylor totaling just 39 catches in 3 seasons as a starter in college.

In fact, given the Colts’ quarterback upgrade and Philip Rivers’ tendency to check down to running backs, it would surprise me if Hines topped the 63/425/2 and 44/320/0 slash lines he’s had in 2 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2018. His 3.74 YPC average on 137 carries shows his shortcomings as a runner, but he’s a decent pass catcher. He’s an important part of a deep and talented running back group.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

In addition to excelling in the run game, the Colts’ offensive line is also strong in pass protection, allowing the 9th fewest sacks in the league last season (32), despite Jacoby Brissett averaging the 3rd longest time in the pocket of any quarterback. Philip Rivers, meanwhile, had the 3rd shortest average time in the pocket last season, frequently under pressure behind a terrible Chargers offensive line. He should benefit significantly from better pass protection with the Colts.

The Colts’ offensive line was dominant for stretches in 2018, but they only had their starting five together healthy for one 5-game stretch. In 2019, they had great injury luck upfront, with none of their starting five missing a single game, allowing them to dominate all season long. They probably won’t have quite the same injury luck in 2020, but they return the same five starters and look likely to be among the top offensive lines in the league once again.

Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is the longest tenured member of this group, making 132 starts in 9 seasons with the team that used the 22nd overall pick on him back in 2011. He’s been remarkably consistent over that stretch, finishing between 7th and 25th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in every season except for his rookie season and missing just 12 games total due to injury. Castonzo’s age is becoming a concern, going into his age 32 season, but he didn’t show any decline in an 8th ranked finish in 2019 and is likely to remain an above average starter at least for another couple years. Castonzo reportedly considered retirement this off-season before re-signing for 33 million over 2 years, a deal that could possibly take him to the end of his career.

The rest of this group joined the team relatively recently. As good as this offensive line is overall, left guard Quenton Nelson is obviously their best player and he was arguably their team MVP last season, given how dependent they were on their running game and how Nelson paved the way on the ground. He finished as PFF’s 2nd ranked guard in overall grade, a year after the 6th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft finished 4th at his position as a rookie. As close to a sure thing as I’ve ever seen at the guard position coming out of the draft, it’s no surprise Nelson has instantly become one of the best guards in the NFL and, still only going into his age 24 season, it’s likely that only injuries could prevent him from being a perennial All-Pro for years to come.

Right tackle Braden Smith also was added through the 2018 NFL Draft, being taken by the Colts with the 37th overall pick at the top of the second round. He hasn’t been as good as Nelson obviously, but he’s developed into a talented young player in his own right, ranking 29th among offensive tackles on PFF as a rookie and 9th in his second season in 2019. Also only going into his age 24 season, Smith could easily keep getting easier and he has the ability to be one of the best right tackles in the league for years to come.

Right guard Mark Glowinski also arrived in the 2018 off-season, although he arrived as a mere waiver claim after being released by the Seahawks, with whom he struggled mightily in 19 starts in three seasons after being drafted in the 4th round in 2015. It turns out the Seahawks gave up on him too quickly, as he took over as the starting right guard for the Colts in week 6 of 2018 and instantly made an impact, finishing the season as PFF’s 10th ranked guard. He wasn’t quite as good in a middling season as a 16-game starter in 2019, but he at least proved his 2018 season wasn’t a total fluke and that he could continue being a capable starter at best going forward. He was a good value re-signing on a 3-year, 16.2 million dollar deal last off-season.

Ryan Kelly completes this offensive line on the pivot, entering his 5th season with the team after they took him in the first round in 2016. Kelly had a middling rookie year, followed by an injury ruined second season, but he’s finished in the top-10 among centers on PFF in back-to-back seasons, including a career best 7th ranked finish in 2019. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, he’s the only member of this unit not signed beyond next season, but the Colts have plenty of cap space to keep him, even if they have to reset the center market at upwards of 12 million annually to do so. It’s unlikely all five of these starters play all 16 games again in 2020 and depth is definitely suspect on the interior, but they at least have a solid swing tackle in Le’Raven Clark, a 2016 3rd round pick who has been capable across 12 career starts. It’s hard to find a more complete offensive line than this one.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Along with quarterback, the other unit on this offense that needs to play better in 2020 is this receiving corps. Fortunately, the problem was mostly injury related in 2019, as expected top-two wide receivers TY Hilton and Parris Campbell were limited to 478 snaps and 196 snaps respectively by injury, leaving Zach Pascal (799 snaps), Marcus Johnson (412 snaps), Chester Rogers (408 snaps), and Deon Cain (228 snaps) to play significant roles. Pascal surprisingly played pretty well, leading this team with a 41/607/5 slash line, after the 2017 undrafted free agent struggled on 527 snaps in the first action of his career in 2018, but the rest of this group struggled.

Things should be a lot better at wide receiver this season and Pascal could end up being no higher than 4th on the depth chart, as both Hilton and Campbell should be healthier and second round rookie Michael Pittman is expected to compete for a role in 3 wide receiver sets immediately. Campbell was a second round pick back in 2019, so he’s still very unproven after an injury riddled rookie year, as is the rookie Pittman, so it’s tough to know how much to expect from them, but the upside is obvious. Hilton, meanwhile, is the biggest re-addition, as he was Andrew Luck’s long-time #1 option, averaging a 87/1430/7 slash line per 16 games from 2014-2018 in games that Luck played. 

Hilton hasn’t been as good without Luck, averaging a 63/932/5 slash line per 16 games without Luck in his career, and he’s going into his age 31 season having dealt with a variety of nagging injuries over the past 2 seasons, but it’s very possible he could re-emerge as a legitimate #1 option now with Philip Rivers in town. He’s finished in the top-32 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 6 of the past 7 seasons, including three seasons in the top-11 (2014, 2016, and 2018) and a 28th ranked finish in limited action last season, so even if he’s on the decline, he still should remain an above average option for another couple seasons, provided he can stay healthy.

With underwhelming play at wide receiver, the Colts relied on tight ends in the passing game more last season and frequently ran two tight end sets with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron, who finished with slash lines of 43/448/4 and 31/375/3 respectively in 16 games and 11 games respectively. Ebron signed with the Steelers as a free agent on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season, but Doyle remains and the Colts may have found a cheaper replacement for Ebron, signing ex-Bear Trey Burton to a cheap one-year deal.

Burton is coming off of a horrendous season, averaging a position worst 0.48 yards per route run, struggling as a blocker, and finishing as PFF’s 48th ranked tight end out of 50 qualifiers, leading to his release this off-season, but he was playing through serious injuries most of the time he was on the field last season and was limited to 283 snaps overall in 8 games. Burton was a capable starter for the Bears in 2018 (54/569/6) and flashed as a reserve with the Eagles in the first 4 seasons of his career prior to that, so he has some bounce back potential if he’s healthy in 2020, only in his age 29 season. He’s never been much of a run blocker, but neither has Ebron who he’s replacing, and Burton is unlikely to play as much as Ebron did, given the Colts’ improved depth at wide receiver.

Jack Doyle, meanwhile, should play a similar role as last season, but I would expect his production to go up, as not only does he get an upgrade at quarterback, but one that has historically targeted tight ends in the passing game. Doyle missed most of 2018 with injury, limited to 26/245/2 in 6 games, but that’s a 69/653/5 pace over 16 games and he totaled 59/584/5 and 80/690/4 in 2016 and 2017. All in all, Doyle has earned an average or better grade from PFF in 6 straight seasons, including 4 seasons as a starter (51 starts in 53 games), providing a reliable receiver underneath and a capable blocker as well. This is a deeper receiver corps, but Doyle should still be able to exceed last year’s production.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Colts’ defense wasn’t bad last season, finishing 20th in first down rate allowed at 36.51%, but the Colts had financial flexibility and the urgency to win now with an aging veteran quarterback on a one-year deal, so they made a big splash move before the draft to acquire 49ers defensive tackle DeForest Buckner for their first round pick, 13th overall. Buckner was a big part of the 49ers’ dominant defensive line in 2019, but the cap strapped 49ers didn’t have the financial flexibility to keep him long-term, so they sought to trade him. For the Colts, they’re paying a steep price, as they also had to give him a 4-year, 84 million dollar extension as part of the trade that makes him the third highest paid defensive player in the NFL in average annual salary behind Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack, but Buckner will provide a big boost to this defense.

The seventh overall pick by the 49ers in 2016, Buckner has been an above average starter since day 1, finishing 33rd among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus as a rookie, and then improving to finish 20th in 2017, 26th in 2018, and a career best 14th last season. All in all, he’s totaled 28.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate from the interior in 4 seasons in the league, while playing at a high level against the run. Only going into his age 26 season, he has the ability to keep getting better, especially in an attacking 4-3 defense in Indianapolis that fits his skill set as a one gap penetrator well. He might have been a slight overpay, but he’ll help this defense in a big way.

Buckner will most directly replace free agent departure Margus Hunt and he is an obviously massive upgrade over Hunt, who is no longer with the team after finishing 114th out of 125 qualifying interior defenders on PFF in 2019, but Hunt played just 451 snaps, so Buckner’s addition will likely also lead to reduced roles by both Denico Autry (620 snaps) and Grover Stewart (627 snaps). Autry is the better of the two players, so I would expect him to see his snaps reduced less, while Stewart will likely be limited to situational work as a run stuffer. 

Stewart has fared pretty well against the run in 3 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2017, but the 6-4 333 pounder unsurprisingly has just a 4.5% pressure rate for his career. Autry, meanwhile, leaves something to be desired against the run, but he’s an effective interior pass rusher who should continue playing in sub packages, after totaling 17.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate over the past 3 seasons and earning an above average pass rush grade from PFF in all 3 seasons.

Hybrid defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis could also be in the mix for snaps on the interior in sub packages and he has some upside as a 2018 2nd round pick, though injuries have limited him to 562 mediocre snaps in 17 games in 2 seasons in the league. The Colts also added veteran Sheldon Day in free agency and he could be in the mix for a role, especially if Lewis can’t secure one or gets hurt, though Day is an underwhelming option who has averaged just 281 snaps per game in 4 seasons in the league. Adding Buckner is a big boost to this position and the Colts have solid depth as well.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Along with DeForest Buckner disrupting offenses in a big way from the interior, the Colts should also have Justin Houston disrupting offenses in a big way on the edge, although that’s less of a sure thing, with Houston getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season. Houston hasn’t shown any signs of dropping off yet though, finishing last season 10th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, especially excelling as a pass rusher with 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate. 

Now going into his 10th season in the league, Houston has finished in the top-22 among edge defenders on PFF in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons in the top-10. He had some injury problems for a stretch, missing 21 of 64 games from 2015-2018, but he played in all 16 games last season and has still totalled 89.5 sacks, 60 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate for his career, even with the significant missed time. Even if he declines a little bit in 2020, he should continue playing at a high level.

With veteran edge defender Jabaal Sheard, who was about average across 569 snaps last season, no longer with the team, snaps are up for grabs aside from Houston and the Colts have some intriguing options, including third year defensive end Kemoko Turay. Originally a 2nd round pick, Turay was solid on 383 rookie year snaps and was expected to take on a larger role in his 2nd season, but his year was ended by injury after 4 games. Still, in those four games, Turay showed a lot to suggest he could have had a breakout year had he stayed healthy, with 1.5 sacks, 4 hits, and an amazing 20.3% pressure rate, while playing well against the run to boot. He’s still unproven, but he has obvious breakout potential in his age 25 season in 2020.

Ben Banogu is another option and he is also a former second round pick, going 49th overall in 2019. He struggled mightily as a rookie though, consistently struggling against the run and managing just an underwhelming 9.4% pressure rate off the edge, while only playing 272 snaps. He still has the upside to develop into a starter long-term, but he needs to take a step forward in his second season in the league to be worth a larger role. The Colts also have fourth year player Al-Quadin Muhammad in the mix for snaps, but he’s more of a run stuffer than a pass rusher, with an underwhelming 7.1% pressure rate for his career. The Colts’ have upside at the edge defender position, but need someone to step up as a consistent option opposite Justin Houston.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts also have a high level player in the linebacking corps, as 2018 2nd round pick Darius Leonard has developed into one of the best off ball linebackers in the league in just two seasons, finishing 7th at his position on Pro Football Focus as a rookie and then 6th in 2019. Only going into his age 25 season, Leonard could keep getting better and, barring injury, is likely to be one of the best off ball linebackers in the league for years to come.

Along with Leonard, the rest of this linebacking corps is the same as last season, but unlike Leonard, the rest of this group didn’t play all that well, so the Colts will be banking on young players taking a step forward at this position. 2017 5th round pick Anthony Walker has played in a close to every down role over the past two seasons (48.6 snaps per game), but he has been a marginal player at best. He developed into a solid coverage player in 2019, but also led all off ball linebackers for 21 missed tackles. His 38 missed tackles over the past two seasons also are the most among off ball linebackers. He could be a little better in 2020, but doesn’t have a high upside.

Walker will likely be pushed for his every down role by 2019 3rd round Bobby Okereke, who flashed in 29.5 per game snaps in primarily a base package role last season. Okereke wasn’t tested much in coverage, but impressed against the run and played at a high level overall. He probably has a higher upside than Walker and could begin eating into Walker’s snaps as recently as this season. This is a young group with upside, but Darius Leonard is the only sure thing. He significantly elevates this whole group by himself though.

Grade: B+

Secondary

While the Colts linebackers are the exact same this season, they have made some changes in the secondary. At cornerback, the Colts released Pierre Desir, owed 6.85 million non-guaranteed after a down 2019 season in which he finished 91st out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks on PFF, and will replace him with free agent acquisitions Xavier Rhodes and TJ Carrie, who will compete for snaps behind holdovers Kenny Moore and Rock Ya-Sin.

Moore will likely be their top cornerback again, as he’s been their de facto #1 cornerback over the past two seasons. Even though he was undrafted in 2017, Moore flashed on 384 snaps as a rookie and has finished 35th and 18th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus over the past two seasons respectively since becoming a starter. Moore is a better run stuffer than he is in coverage, but he’s still earned an above average coverage grade from PFF in both seasons. He’s at his best on the slot (0.92 yards per route run allowed on the slot over the past two seasons), but despite his limited size at 5-9 190 he can hold up on the outside and play every down as well. Still only going into his age 26 season, he should do more of the same for years to come and could keep getting even better.

Rock Ya-Sin also remains as a starter, after playing capably on 853 snaps (13 starts) as a rookie last year. The 34th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Ya-Sin has a high ceiling and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league. That leaves newcomers Xavier Rhodes and TJ Carrie to compete for the third cornerback job, with Rhodes likely being the favorite, signing for 3 million on a one-year deal, compared to 1.05 million for Carrie. 

Rhodes also has the bigger track record of success, making 97 starts in 7 seasons in the league since being drafted in the first round in 2013, with his best years coming in 2016 (21st among cornerbacks on PFF) and 2017 (37th), but he’s fallen off significant since then, falling to 107th out of 126 qualifying cornerbacks and 125th out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks over the past 2 seasons respectively. Rhodes isn’t that old in his age 30 season, but he’s played through injuries in recent years that have consistently limited him and, even if he does bounce back in 2020, his best days are likely behind him. He’s not a bad third option, however, given his history. 

Carrie, meanwhile, is also experienced, with 51 starts in 92 games in 6 seasons in the league, but he’s never been as good as Rhodes at his best and he too is going into his age 30 season and coming off of a bad year, finishing 100th out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks last season. Carrie is also primarily a slot cornerback and Moore has that role locked down, meaning Carrie is likely going to begin the season in a versatile depth role, able to fill in both inside and outside when needed.

At safety, the Colts let Clayton Geathers walk in free agency. Geathers had been with the Colts for 5 seasons since they took him in the 4th round in 2015 and he was generally a capable player across an average of 41.7 snaps per game over the past 4 seasons, but it’s not entirely surprising the Colts moved on, as Geathers had been very injury prone over the past four seasons (23 of 64 games missed) and lost his job to 4th round rookie Khari Willis down the stretch last season. Geathers also was a much better run stuffer than he was in coverage, which he frequently had trouble with. Willis is unproven with just 50.4 career snaps, but he was pretty solid last season and would be a more well-rounded long-term starting option than Geathers if he can continue to develop.

Malik Hooker remains as the other starting safety, though that may not be the case beyond this year, as the Colts declined the former 15th overall pick’s 5th year option for 2021, even though it would have guaranteed him just 6.7 million for injury. Injuries have always been a concern with Hooker, who has missed 14 of 48 games in 3 seasons in the league and has injury problems dating back to his collegiate days, but the Colts will regret declining that option if Hooker has a big year in 2020, which he could easily do, as he’s shown a lot of potential when on the field in his career, finishing 17th among safeties on PFF in 14 starts in 2018 and 37th in 13 starts in 2019.

Only in his age 24 season with a huge upside, it’s surprising the Colts wouldn’t take a chance on Booker for 2021, but for 2020 he should be at least an above average starter when on the field. If he misses time, he’d likely be replaced by either George Odum, who has been decent on 489 snaps in 2 seasons since going undrafted in 2018, or third round rookie Julian Blackmon. This is a solid secondary overall with good depth.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Colts made a big addition on both sides of the ball this off-season, adding Philip Rivers to upgrade the quarterback position and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to give them another dominant player on the defensive side of the ball. They also should get a healthier year from their #1 wide receiver TY Hilton, so it’s not hard to see how the Colts could be significantly better in 2020 and win an unsettled AFC South. The AFC in general is weak outside of the Ravens and Chiefs and, other than those two teams, the Colts look like they have the best shot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season.  I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Chiefs and Ravens both have suffered losses in the pre-season, so the Colts chances to win the AFC got even better.

Projection: 12-4 (1st in AFC South)

Washington Mascots 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Update: The Washington Redskins will go by the name Washington Football Team in 2020 due to their inability to confirm a new name in time for the season. That is a stupid name. I will be calling them the Washington Mascots instead until they settle on a permanent name.

Quarterback

It’s hard to believe, but the Mascots were 6-3 and very much in the mix for the NFC East title going into week 11 of 2018. That week, their season was derailed by a devastating leg injury to franchise quarterback Alex Smith, which not only ended his season, but led to severe complications that have put his career in jeopardy. Backup Colt McCoy got injured a few weeks later and the Mascots had to resort to starting street free agents at quarterback down the stretch in what ended as a 7-9 season.

The Smith injury is an obvious reason for the decline, but the Mascots were never as good as their record with Smith, as they ranked 26th in first down rate differential when he went down,  with just a +1 point differential, despite a +11 turnover margin. That’s the reason why the Mascots still struggled in 2019, finishing with the 2nd worst record in the NFL at 3-13, even with quarterback play that was competent compared to what they got down the stretch in 2018. The Mascots were every bit as bad as their record suggested, finishing with the 2nd worst first down rate differential at -6.31%.

There are some reasons to be optimistic for the Mascots. The big one is new head coach Ron Rivera. Rivera was mostly successful in 9 seasons (76-63-1) in Carolina, including a Super Bowl appearance, and his dismissal mid-season last season was more about the Panthers simply wanting to make a change than anything. It’s hard to imagine too many coaches having success with the injury plagued rosters Rivera has had the past two seasons and it’s definitely not surprising the Panthers’ defense got even worse once they fired the defensive minded Rivera. Rivera could have had his pick of most of the available jobs this off-season, so it’s a bit surprising he picked Washington, but it’s a big win for the Mascots and legitimizes the organization at least somewhat.

A big part of the reason why Rivera took this job is probably second year quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who was the 15th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, as it’s unlikely Rivera would have taken this job if he was not high on the former Ohio State quarterback. Haskins’ rookie year numbers aren’t impressive, as he completed 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.72 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions and led the Mascots to a 33.42% first down rate in his 7 starts, but he led the Mascots’ offense to a 40.08% first rate down in his final 4 starts of the season before missing week 17, completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 7.48 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception over that stretch, so he definitely got better as his rookie year went on.

It’s overly optimistic to assume Haskins can keep that kind of production up for 16 games, but it’s not hard to imagine Haskins taking a step forward in his second season in the league. Haskins was considered raw coming out of college, as he was just a one-year starter, though he had one of the most impressive statistical seasons in Big Ten history in that one season. Only going into his third season as a starter between college, Haskins has a high ceiling and could easily develop into an above average starter long-term, even if it isn’t this season.

Experienced Veteran Case Keenum began last season as the starting quarterback and made eight starts in total, but he’s no longer with the team, so this is completely Dwayne Haskins’ job now. To replace Keenum as the backup, Rivera sent a late round draft pick to his former employer to acquire Kyle Allen, who made 12 starts in Cam Newton’s absence for Rivera’s Panthers in 2019. 

Allen got off to a good start last season, but finished with 62.0% completion, 6.79 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, with another 12 potential interceptions dropped, giving him the most expected interceptions of any quarterback in the league besides Jameis Winston. Overall, Allen finished 38th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. The former undrafted free agent has his moments, but ultimately profiles as a backup at best long-term and he would likely struggle if he had to see action in Haskins’ absence this season. The Mascots are banking on Haskins taking a step forward and they may get that, though how much of a step forward remains to be seen.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

One factor working against Haskins is his lack of a supporting cast on offense. The Mascots had the most adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2019, which is normally a good sign for future improvement, as injuries tend to be very inconsistent year-to-year, but on offense a lot of the players they lost last season are no longer with the team, including top-2 tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis and former starting wide receiver Paul Richardson. 

The Mascots also did very little to upgrade Haskins’ supporting cast and as of this writing have the second most unused cap space in the league, along with 14 million in dead cap and a 21.4 million dollar cap hit for Alex Smith, who is unlikely to play a snap this season. Normally teams with potential franchise quarterbacks on a cheap rookie deal tend to be aggressive in free agency upgrading around that quarterback, but the Mascots were anything but, especially in the receiving corps, where the Mascots will be relying on a very young group.

The best of that young group by far is 2019 3rd round pick Terry McLaurin, who had a tremendous rookie season. Not only did he put up an impressive 58/919/7 slash line, but he did it despite not being an every down player for most of the season, ranking 33rd in the NFL in snaps played by a wide receiver. In terms of yards per route run, he ranked 14th in the NFL among wide receivers at 2.05, which is even more impressive when you consider how ineffective the rest of this offense was. Overall, he finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked wide receiver. 

McLaurin benefits from familiarity with Haskins, who was a college teammate at Ohio State, but he produced regardless of the quarterback last season. McLaurin was a little old for a rookie, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has a bright future as he and Haskins continue to develop together. Even if the rest of this offense struggles, I would expect McLaurin to top his 2019 production, as he’ll likely have a larger target share and play closer to every down.

No other Redskin topped 400 yards receiving last season and they didn’t make any real additions to this group this off-season; in fact, they lost free agent pass catching back Chris Thompson, whose 42/378/0 slash line made him the team’s 2nd leading receiver last year. Without proven options, the Mascots are banking on some young players taking a big step forward. Kelvin Harmon finished 2nd on the team among wide receivers in snaps played, though he only played about half the snaps, posting a middling grade across 482 snaps and averaging a mediocre 1.26 yards per route run. A 6th round pick in 2019, he’ll likely have a larger role in 2020 and is probably the favorite for the #2 receiver job, but he’s a very underwhelming starting option. 

Trey Quinn, a 2018 7th round pick, was the Mascots’ primary slot receiver for most of last season, but he was abysmal in the first significant action of his career, averaging just 0.66 yards per route run and finishing as PFF’s 98th ranked wide receiver out of 102 qualifiers before going down for the season with injury in week 13. His replacement Steven Sims was a clear upgrade in limited action, so Quinn isn’t going to be guaranteed to get his job back. 

Sims averaged 1.46 yards per route run on 213 routes, flashed his speed on 9 carries for 85 yards and a 1 touchdown, and earned a middling grade from PFF on 310 snaps, but he’s hardly a reliable option either, as speedy the but undersized (5-10 177 pounds) 2019 undrafted free agent has still barely played in the NFL. Other options for playing time at wide receiver include veteran Cody Latimer, primarily a special teamer who has never topped 24 catches in 7 seasons in the league, and raw 4th round rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden. They would both be underwhelming options as well.

Things aren’t any better at tight end either. Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis were once a solid tight end duo, but injuries cost Reed all of 2019 and limited Davis to 186 snaps in 4 games, leaving bottom of the roster talents Jeremy Sprinkle and Hale Hentges to lead the team with 601 snaps and 230 snaps respectively. Reed and Davis are both no longer with the team, but outside of signing another couple bottom of the roster talents in Richard Rodgers and Logan Thomas, the Mascots did nothing to address the position this off-season.

Sprinkle is penciled in as the starter, even though the 2017 5th round pick has struggled throughout his career as both a blocker and a receiver. That was especially the case last season in his first extended starting experience, as he averaged just 0.79 yards per route run on a 26/241/1 slash line and finished as PFF’s 42nd ranked tight end overall out of 44 qualifiers. Hentges was better, but only by default and the 2019 undrafted free agent still has very little NFL experience. 

Richard Rodgers is the most proven of the bunch with a 58/510/8 slash line in 2015, but that was largely due to playing with Aaron Rodgers and he’s been limited to just 43 catches in 4 seasons since, in part due to injuries. Thomas, meanwhile, has never topped 16 catches in a season in 6 seasons in the league. Outside of Terry McLaurin, it’s tough to see where Haskins is going to be able to find a reliable target in the passing game.

Update: Kelvin Harmon is out for the season with a torn ACL, capping this group’s upside even more. Steven Sims and Trey Quinn will now have to see significant roles.

Grade: C

Running Backs

With passing down back Chris Thompson now in Jacksonville, the Mascots used a third round pick on Antonio Gibson, who played both wide receiver and running back in college and is expected to be the primary passing down back in 2020. Gibson could also see some snaps at wide receiver in certain situations. The Mascots also added veteran Peyton Barber in free agency, although that one is a little harder to understand. 

Not only does Barber have a redundant skill set to their top-2 backs Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice, as a two down between the tackles runner, but he’s also coming off of a horrendous season in Tampa Bay, ranking dead last in the NFL in yards per carry with 3.05 YPC average on 154 carries. He also has just a 3.60 YPC average for his career and has never topped 20 catches in a season. The 2-year, 3 million dollar deal the Mascots gave him in free agency seems like a total waste, as he figures to start the season 4th on the depth chart and likely wouldn’t be a useful option if even Peterson or Guice was to get injured.

Injuries have been the story of Guice’s career thus far, as the 2018 2nd round pick missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL and was limited to 42 carries in five games last season by further knee injuries. Guice flashed on those 42 carries last season, averaging 5.83 YPC, and he still has plenty of talent and plenty of time to show why he was drafted highly, still only going into his age 23 season, but he’s hardly a reliable player. 

The Mascots originally signed Adrian Peterson after Guice tore his ACL and, despite his advanced age for a running back, he’s been a capable lead back for them, rushing for 1,940 yards and 12 touchdowns on 462 carries (4.20 YPC). How the carries would be divided between a healthy Guice and Peterson, now in his age 35 season, remains to be seen, especially with Peyton Barber around as a wild card option for carries. None of Barber, Guice, and Peterson are much of a pass catcher, so the only player likely locked in a role is the rookie Gibson on passing downs. There’s some potential at this position, but a lot of questions as well.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Another player the Mascots were without in 2019 was left tackle Trent Williams, who sat out the whole season, but he’s not coming back either, as the Mascots finally granted his trade request this off-season and sent him to the San Francisco 49ers for draft picks. The Mascots also lost Donald Penn, Williams’ replacement last season, and left guard Ereck Flowers, who were both capable starters last season, and they didn’t do much to replace either of them, so this is still a very underwhelming offensive line.

Left tackle is the biggest area of concern as, without Penn and Williams, the Mascots are down to free agent acquisition Cornelius Lucas and 2018 3rd round pick Geron Christian, who would both be questionable options. Lucas flashed in 5 starts down the stretch for the Bears last season, but that was on the right side and it’s very possible that stretch was a flash in the pan for a player who has made just 14 total starts in 6 seasons in the league. 

Lucas would almost definitely be overmatched as a 16-game starter on the blindside, but Christian wouldn’t necessarily be better, as he’s struggled on 189 career snaps and has been unable to earn coaching staff’s trust enough to get onto the field consistently, even with plenty of available opportunity on this unit. It’s possible 4th round rookie Saadhiq Charles could also see starts at left tackle down the stretch if neither Lucas nor Christian can lock down the job, though he enters the league very raw. Donald Penn also remains a free agent and could be brought back, but it’s unclear what he’d have left for his age 37 season or if he’d even want to return.

At left guard, free agent Wes Schweitzer is expected to be the replacement for Ereck Flowers, after coming over from the Falcons on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Schweitzer is experienced, making 36 starts in the past 3 seasons, but the former 2016 6th round pick has been middling at best, including a 62nd ranked finish out of 89 qualifying guards in 2019, so he’s an underwhelming option and figures to be a downgrade from Flowers, who ranked 34th.

The Mascots did fortunately keep right guard Brandon Scherff on the franchise tag, as he’s one of the few bright spots on this offense. He’s also a player the Mascots can expect more from this season, after injuries limited him to 11 games in 2019, though it’s worth noting he hasn’t played more than 14 games in a season in 2016. Even with the injuries, Scherff has developed from the 5th overall pick in 2015 to one of the better guards in the NFL, finishing in the top-27 among guards on Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons, including top-7 finishes in both 2017 and 2019. Even though he’s set to make 15.03 million on the franchise tag, retaining him was a no brainer and the Mascots should try to get him signed long-term as soon as possible, even if they have to make him one of the top paid guards in the league to do so.

Right tackle Morgan Moses and center Chase Rouiller also remain. Moses is a long-time starting right tackle for the Mascots, making all 80 starts there over the past five seasons. He’s never been a dominant player, but he’s been consistently average or better on PFF in every season, he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season, and his durability is an added bonus. Rouliller, meanwhile, has been a middling starter in 37 career starts, since being drafted by the Mascots in the 6th round in 2017, and is coming off of his best season, ranking 15th among centers on PFF. There’s some continuity on this offensive line, but the left side is a real question mark.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Mascots have concerns on defense as well, but they are mostly in the backend. In fact, the Mascots are moving to a 4-3 defense this year after years of playing a 3-4 and their new 4-man defensive line is an obvious strength. The Mascots’ interior defenders and edge defenders played well last season and the Mascots got even better upfront this off-season when they used the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Ohio State edge defender Chase Young. With Young coming in and this defense moving to an attacking 4-3 style, the Mascots could be very disruptive upfront this season.

Young has the potential to be one of the best edge defenders in the league long-term and he’ll immediately have a big role, even at a position where the Mascots were pretty deep last season. Along with using the 2nd pick on Young this year, the Mascots also used a first round pick on an edge defender in 2019, taking Montez Sweat 26th overall, and a second round pick in 2017, taking Ryan Anderson 49th overall. Add in former first round pick Ryan Kerrigan (16th overall in 2010) and the Mascots go four deep on the edge and should rotate their players heavily. Neither Sweat nor Anderson have broken out as more than a middling player yet though, so it definitely doesn’t hurt to add more talent to the mix. 

Sweat still profiles as an above average starter long-term, while Anderson’s future is murkier, as he’s going into his 4th season in the league and finished 92nd out of 118 qualifying edge defenders on Pro Football Focus in the first starting experience of his career in 2019. Kerrigan, meanwhile, is coming off of his lowest graded season since his rookie year, not a complete surprise given his age, as he’s now going into his age 32 season. Kerrigan finished above average on PFF in 9 straight seasons prior to 2019, including a career best 15th in 2017, but he fell to 71st out of 118 qualifiers in 2019 and it’s likely his best days are behind him. He could still continue to contribute as a rotational player for another few years, but he could also continue declining.

Given his age and decline, it’s surprising Kerrigan wasn’t released or forced to take a pay cut this off-season, owed 10.75 million non-guaranteed in the final year of his contract next year. An extension that guarantees him some money beyond 2020 in exchange for a significant pay cut could make the most sense for both sides, especially with Kerrigan wanting to finish his career in Washington. This is a deep edge group, but they need a young player like Montez Sweat or Chase Young to breakout if they’re going to have a top level player at the position.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Mascots also have a bunch of recent high draft picks on the interior, including a pair of former first round picks in Da’Ron Payne (13th overall in 2018) and Jonathan Allen (17th overall in 2017). The 6-3 319 pound Payne was primarily a nose tackle in the Mascots’ old 3-4, but he played more sub packages than your typical nose tackle, averaging 50.2 snaps per game in his career thus far. He’s been a good run stuffer, but needs to develop as a pass rusher (5.7% pressure rate) if the Mascots are going to continue justifying playing him in sub packages. Fortunately, Payne is only going into his age 23 season, so he still has a high ceiling as a potential three down player. Allen, meanwhile, is a more well rounded player, but doesn’t excel in any one area.

Matt Ioannidis was only a 5th round pick in 2016, but he’s arguably developed into the Mascots’ best interior defender, earning an above average grade from Pro Football Focus in each of the past 3 seasons, while averaging 42.0 snaps per game. Ioannidis leaves something to be desired against the run, but has consistently been a productive pass rusher for this team, totaling 20.5 sacks, 19 hits, and a very impressive 12.4% pressure rate from the interior over the past three seasons combined. The Mascots also have good depth on the interior, as 2018 5th round pick Tim Settle has shown promise on 449 snaps thus far in his career, both as a pass rusher (7.1% pressure rate) and a run stuffer. Little has changed with this unit, beyond their young players having another year another their belt, so this should remain an above average unit with upside.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

While the Mascots’ defensive front looks strong, their backend has a lot of problems. That was the case in the linebacking corps last season, as their top-2 linebackers Jon Bostic (1,031 snaps) and Cole Holcomb (718 snaps) finished 66th and 64th respectively among qualifying off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus, while top reserve Shaun Dion Hamilton (387 snaps) wasn’t much better. There’s a good chance things are better in 2020 though and not just by default, as the Mascots made a pair of additions in free agency in Thomas Davis and Kevin Pierre-Louis and they are also expected to get linebacker Reuben Foster back from a devastating knee injury that cost him all of 2019. All three have potential in 2020 and will compete for roles with the three holdovers in the Mascots’ new 4-3 linebacking corps.

Davis is easily the most proven of the bunch, although his best days are definitely behind him, now going into his age 37 season. Davis was once one of the better every down 4-3 outside linebackers in the league in his prime and he did so in Carolina with Ron Rivera, but last season with the Chargers, while he still played at a high level against the run, he struggled in coverage and was limited to base package work down the stretch. He has the opportunity to earn an every down role in a thin linebacking corps in Washington, but he could continue to struggle in coverage given that he doesn’t have the same athleticism he once did. He was signed to a one-year deal worth 3.5 million this off-season and could easily be entering the final year of what would be a 16-year NFL career.

Pierre-Louis also comes to town on a one-year deal, signing for 3 million this off-season. Pierre-Louis has primarily played special teams thus far in his career, never topping 273 defensive snaps in 6 seasons in the league, but he flashed in 4 starts down the stretch as an injury replacement for the Bears last season. He’s already going into his age 29 season and could prove to be a flash in the pan, but he’s a worthwhile flyer for a team that needs help at the position. The Mascots shouldn’t expect much from him defensively and he’s not guaranteed to lock down a role, but he does come with some upside and should at least help on special teams.

The player with the biggest upside is Reuben Foster, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him, given the extent of his leg injury. Foster was a first round pick by the 49ers in 2017 and his career got off to a good start, as he played well across 16 starts in his first two seasons in the league, but then his career was derailed by legal issues, followed by last season’s injury. The allegations against Foster proved to be largely unfounded, so he should be in the clear to return from a conduct standpoint, but he has injury problems dating back to his collegiate days and it’s tough to know what to expect from him from a health standpoint. If healthy, I would expect him to at least have a base package role and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he still has time to develop into an above average starter, but his future is very uncertain.

Among the three holdovers, Jon Bostic is the most experienced of the bunch, making 62 starts in 7 seasons in the league and playing 91% of the snaps for the Mascots last season, but he struggled last season and has never been more than a snap eater in his career, so he shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting role. Cole Holcomb also started 16 games last season, but he also struggled and, though the 2019 5th round pick could be better in his second season, there’s no guarantee he ever develops into a consistent starter. Shaun Dion Hamilton, meanwhile, has played just 516 snaps since being drafted by the Mascots in the 6th round in 2018 and probably isn’t a roster lock, even at a position without established roles. This is a deeper group than last year and one with more upside, but they also don’t have any sure things either.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Mascots also have a lot of problems in the secondary. At cornerback, the Mascots got rid of Quinton Dunbar and Josh Norman. Cutting Norman was a no brainer and won’t hurt this team, as he was owed 12.5 million non-guaranteed after a season in which he totally fell off and finished 128th out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, but Dunbar, who was traded because the Mascots didn’t want to sign him to a big contract long-term, was one of the best cornerbacks in the league last season, finishing 3rd at his position on PFF. He’ll obviously be a huge loss for a team that had a lot of problems in the secondary last season even with Dunbar around.

Dunbar will be replaced by free agent acquisition Kendall Fuller, who returns to Washington on a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal, after spending the past two seasons in Kansas City, where he was sent as part of the Alex Smith trade. Drafted by the Mascots in the 3rd round in 2016, Fuller was dominant as the primary slot cornerback in his second and seemingly final season with the Mascots in 2017, finishing 3rd among cornerbacks on PFF on 720 snaps (0.74 slot yards per route run allowed, 3rd in the NFL among cornerbacks).

However, he never matched that level of play in Kansas City, falling to 33rd among cornerbacks as an every down player in 2018 and then getting benched in a middling 2019 season in which he ended up playing just 498 snaps in 11 games. Given that, it’s surprising the Mascots paid him as much as they did to return, but, still only going into his age 25 season, Fuller still has upside going forward and he has obvious bounce back potential in 2020, even if he never repeats his dominant 2017 season.

The Mascots also signed ex-Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby to a one-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency and he has a good chance to lock down a starting job in Washington. Like Fuller, Darby has had success in the past, finishing 13th among cornerbacks on PFF in 2015, 17th in 2016, and 37th in 2018, but he’s missed 20 games over the past three seasons combined, he’s never played all 16 games in a season in 5 seasons in the league, and his injuries seem to have sapped his abilities, as he fell to 129th among 135 qualifying cornerbacks on PFF in 2019. Still only going into his age 26 season, Darby still has bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, but he’s a big question mark.

The biggest reason Darby is likely locked into a starting role is the Mascots lack a good alternative, with holdovers Fabian Moreau and Jimmy Moreland, who both struggled in 2019, being their only other real options for snaps at the position. Playing 664 snaps and 471 snaps respectively, Moreau and Moreland finished 115th and 96th respectively among 135 qualifying cornerbacks on PFF last season. Both are young and could improve in the future, but Moreland was just a 7th round choice in 2019, while Moreau has been mediocre in 3 seasons in the league (17 starts) since the Mascots took him in the 3rd round in 2018. One of the two will have to play in three cornerback sets and, given Darby’s injury history, it’s likely both will see significant action together at some point this season.

At safety, Landon Collins remains as the starter at one spot, while free agent acquisition Sean Davis is likely to start at the other spot. Collins came to Washington last off-season on a huge 6-year, 84 million dollar deal that makes him the 3rd highest paid safety in the league in average annual salary. He’s not as good as that suggests, particularly because he’s a much better player against the run than he is in coverage, where he has his struggles from time to time, but he’s earned an above average grade from PFF in each of the past 4 seasons, including a 10th ranked finish in 2016 and a 12th ranked finish in 2017, though he was just 40th in 2019. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Collins should remain an above average strong safety.

Davis, meanwhile, replaces Montae Nicholson, who was released this off-season after a miserable 2019 season in which he dealt with off the field problems and finished 95th out of 100 qualifying safeties on PFF. Davis should be an upgrade, although that’s not saying much. A 2nd round pick by the Steelers in 2016, Davis started 40 games in the first 3 seasons of his career and was a solid starter in 2018, but he struggled in both 2016 and 2017 and he missed all but 55 snaps last season with injury, so it’s tough to know what to expect him from in 2020. With only 2018 4th round pick Troy Apke, who flashed on the first 210 snaps of his career last season, is an alternative, Davis is likely locked into a starting role. Even if Davis is an upgrade at safety, it’s hard to say this secondary didn’t get worse by losing Dunbar at cornerback.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Mascots did well to get Ron Rivera as their head coach this off-season, quarterback Dwayne Haskins could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league, and the Mascots made the obvious decision to take Chase Young 2nd overall, but that’s about where the good news ends for the Mascots, who have positions of weakness across the depth chart, on both sides of the ball. This team has the 3rd lowest payroll in the NFL in terms of average annual salary, even with Alex Smith commanding significant cap space while injured and unavailable, and it shows with a roster that is arguably the NFL’s worst around the quarterback. Even if Haskins makes progress in his second season, it’s hard to see him having much luck in the win/loss column. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: Things have gone from bad to worse for this team. Not only have they lost their name, but their offensive depth has been further thinned with the release of Adrian Peterson, Trey Quinn, and Derrius Guice (off-the-field issues) and the injury to Kelvin Harmon. Dwayne Haskins may take some steps forward this season, but it probably won’t be noticeable in the box score and in the standings.

Projection: 2-14 (4th in NFC East)

Philadelphia Eagles 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

The future seemed very bright for the Eagles after their Super Bowl victory at the end of the 2017 season. Not only did they win the Super Bowl, but they were able to do it despite losing quarterback Carson Wentz to injury late in the season and having to turn to backup Nick Foles. Prior to the injury, Wentz was a possible MVP candidate and was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked quarterback in just his 2nd season in the league, so getting him back to a team that had won the Super Bowl even without him seemed like a recipe for long-term success.

Instead, things have not been quite as good. The Eagles have made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, but have done so at just 9-7 both times. In terms of first down rate, they ranked 15th on offense, 8th on defense, and 8th in differential in 2018 and 15th on offense,10th on defense, and 12th in differential in 2019, good but below expectations for a team that some thought would be a perennial Super Bowl contender. Head coach Doug Pederson who looked like an offensive wizard in their Super Bowl season has proven to be overmatched without top offensive assistant Frank Reich, who has since taken over as the head coach with the Colts.

Carson Wentz hasn’t been bad, but he’s fallen to 14th and 16th among quarterbacks on PFF over the past two seasons respectively, making his strong 2017 look like an outlier, he hasn’t gotten the help he’s needed around him, and he hasn’t made it through a season without suffering a serious injury, totaling just two drives worth of playoff action thus far in his career. All in all, in the regular season, he’s completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.90 YPA, 97 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions, while adding 785 yards and 3 touchdowns on 206 carries (3.81 YPA) on the ground, good numbers, but definitely not consistently elite.

In 2017, the Eagles could surround the quarterback, either Wentz or Foles, with a Super Bowl contending roster because they had just 4.4% of their cap space committed to Wentz and Foles combined, with Foles on a backup deal and Wentz on a rookie deal. Now Wentz, signed to a 4-year, 128 million dollar extension with 81.97 million guaranteed last off-season, takes up 9.4% of the cap in 2020 himself and is projected to take up 16.6% in 2021. 

The Eagles have gotten creative to fit the most expensive team in the NFL by average annual salary under the cap, but it’s getting harder and harder to consistently put Super Bowl caliber supporting casts around the quarterback and they’re already 52 million over the projected 2021 cap, assuming it doesn’t get cut by revenue losses. It might not be totally fair to knock Wentz as being injury prone just because he’s suffered some untimely injuries late in the season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he was able to stay healthy in 2020, but unless he can consistently find his 2017 form, it’s going to be tough for this team to be the perennial contender they once looked like they might be.

Given Wentz’s tendency to get hurt, it’s unsurprising the Eagles prioritized the backup quarterback spot in free agency this off-season, but what was surprising is that the Eagles used the 53rd overall pick on Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts to be that quarterback. Hurts has the upside to develop into a long-term starter, but the Eagles need a short-term backup and Hurts comes into the league very raw, so the Eagles almost definitely would be in better hands with a veteran backup this season. Hurts’ athleticism could allow the Eagles to use some creative packages, but it’s hard to justify the Eagles taking Hurts where they did, given Wentz’s age and the Eagles’ inability to realistically get out of his contract until 2023. The Eagles will have to hope Wentz can finally stay healthy for a full season this year, as Hurts would likely struggle as a rookie.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Eagles’ biggest problem on offense last season was their receiving corps, particularly the wide receiver position. Things looked strong at the position going into last season, as they retained their leading two wideouts from 2018, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor, and added veteran DeSean Jackson and 2nd round rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside in the off-season. However, Jeffery and Jackson were limited to 493 snaps and 65 snaps respectively with injury, while Agholor and Arcega-Whiteside both struggled mightily, and the various other options the Eagles tried at the position, Greg Ward (308 snaps), Mack Hollins (395 snaps), Robert Davis (103 snaps), Jordan Matthews (134 snaps), all were underwhelming as well. By the end of the season, the Eagles were calling up players from the practice squad to play significant snaps in 3-wide receiver sets and they had backup quarterback Josh McCown available to be the 4th wide receiver if needed.

With Jeffery and Jackson set to return from injury and Arcega-Whiteside going into his 2nd year in the league, things would have been better by default at wide receiver for the Eagles in 2020 even if they didn’t made any big moves at the position, but they clearly made upgrading the position a priority, adding 4 wide receivers on draft day, including veteran Marquise Goodwin, who came over from the 49ers for a swap of sixth round picks. Fifth round rookie John Hightower and sixth round rookie Quez Watkins are unlikely to make much of an impact right away, but first round rookie Jalen Reagor should be in the mix for snaps immediately.

Reagor will likely primarily compete for the #3 wide receiver job with Arcega-Whitside, who still has upside, despite averaging a 0.55 yards per route run and finishing in the bottom-3 at his position in Pro Football Focus, but Reagor could also have opportunity for even more playing time if Alshon Jeffery isn’t ready for the start of the season after suffering a serious foot injury down the stretch last season. Even if Jeffery plays week one, it’s reasonable to expect him to miss the whole off-season program and, going into his age 30 season coming off of a serious injury, he might not be the same player.

Injuries are unfortunately nothing new for Jeffery, who has played one full 16-game season in his last 5 tries, having missed a total of 20 games in the other 4 seasons combined. Prior to that stretch of injuries, Jeffery topped 1000 yards in back-to-back years in 2013 (89/1421/7) and 2014 (85/1133/10) and was on a similar pace in an injury limited 2015 season (54/807/4 in 9 games), but he’s been limited to a 68/923/7 slash line per 16 games over the past 4 seasons and I would expect that to continue to drop. 

Jeffery has still earned above average grades from PFF in each of those 4 seasons, but that’s a dropoff from his early prime when he finished in the top-25 in 3 straight seasons from 2013-2015, including top-6 finishes in 2013 and 2015. Jeffery may still be able to give the Eagles something in 2020, but the Eagles would have undoubtedly cut him this off-season if doing so wouldn’t have caused them to incur a huge dead cap hit.

Fellow veteran DeSean Jackson has a much better chance of bouncing back off of an injury ruined season and figures to at least start the season as the nominal #1 option. Jackson’s age is an even bigger concern, as he’ll turn 34 this December, but he’ll at least have a healthy off-season and he showed a great connection with Carson Wentz in limited action last season, averaging a ridiculous 4.18 yards per route run on 38 routes in his first season back in Philadelphia, most among any wide receiver with at least 10 targets last season.

Jackson has been frequently banged up in his career, playing all 16 games just twice in 12 seasons in the league with the Eagles and Buccaneers, but last season was also the first season he’d ever played fewer than 9 games, so he hasn’t had a lot of serious injuries and he’s had an impressive 62/1076/6 slash line per 16 games in his career, with 9 straight above average seasons on PFF. He’s likely on the decline and will probably miss at least a couple games with injuries, but he could still be the team’s leading receiver.

Veteran off-season acquisition Marquise Goodwin will just likely be reserve depth, but the Eagles need good depth, as both Jeffery and Jackson are aging and injury prone, Arcega-Whiteside is very raw, and Jalen Reagor is a rookie. In 7 seasons in the league, Goodwin’s 56/962/2 slash line in 2017 stands out, as he’s never topped 29 catches in any of his other seasons in the league, and he’s now going into his age 30 season, but he’s one of the fastest situational deep threats in the league with a career 16.6 yards per catch average, so he should provide valuable wide receiver depth for the Eagles.

With the Eagles’ wide receivers struggling in 2019, tight ends became a focal point of this offense and the Eagles fortunately have arguably the best tight end duo in the NFL, with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert leading this team with slash lines of 88/916/6 and 58/607/5 respectively. Ertz has been one of the best tight ends in the league for years, averaging a 86/914/6 slash line over the past five seasons and finishing in the top-18 among tight ends on PFF in all 7 seasons he’s been in the league, including five top-10 finishes.

Goedert was right behind Ertz in yards per route run last season though (1.69 vs. 1.64) and is arguably the more complete player, as he’s a strong run blocker as well, while Ertz can struggle in that aspect. A 2nd round pick in 2018, Goedert has shown a lot of potential as a part-time player in two seasons in the league (1.57 yards per route run) and could be even better in his third season in the league, while Ertz’s age is beginning to become a concern in his age 30 season and he could begin to decline soon. Either way, they should remain one of the best tight end duos in the NFL, even if their target shares drop in a better overall receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

With the Eagles so thin in the receiving corps last season, their 3rd leading receiver behind their top-2 tight ends was actually pass catching running back Miles Sanders, who flashed with a 50/509/3 slash line. Sanders did that on 317 routes run, giving him a 1.61 yards per route run average that ranked 10th among running backs and he also was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked running back in pass catching grade, despite being only a 2nd round rookie. Sanders has the upside to get better as a receiver going forward.

Sanders also has the upside to get better as a runner and he’ll need to. His 4.57 yards per carry average last season on 179 carries is impressive, but he didn’t consistently keep this offense on track as a rookie, ranking 34th out of 45 qualifying running backs with a 45% carry success rate, 

despite running behind an offensive line that was PFF’s highest ranked in team run blocking grade. Overall, finished with PFF’s 57th lowest run grade among 61 qualifying running backs. The Eagles let #2 running back Jordan Howard (4.41 YPC average and a 8th ranked 53% carry success rate) leave in free agency and didn’t replace him, so they’ll be counting on a lot from Sanders this season and it remains to be seen if he can rise to the challenge of being a feature back. Even if he has a higher success rate this season, that may not be reflected in his YPC average if he isn’t able to sustain a high percentage of breakaway runs.

With Howard gone, Boston Scott is expected to move up from the #3 back spot to the #2 spot, even though he had an underwhelming 4.02 YPC average in the first 61 carries of his career last season. How much work he takes from Sanders may be up to Sanders and how well he plays, as he has a clear path to every down work in this offense if he plays well. If both Sanders and Scott underwhelm in training camp, it wouldn’t be expensive for the Eagles to add a veteran to the mix, which could be a wise option at a thin position.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

Not only did the Eagles’ offensive line excel in run blocking last season, they also were one of the best pass blocking teams in the league, ranking 3rd in team pass blocking grade on Pro Football Focus. That offensive line will look different in 2020 though and probably won’t be as good. The biggest loss was right guard Brandon Brooks, who tore his achilles in June, a devastating blow, as not only was Brooks was PFF’s top ranked guard in 2019, but the Eagles don’t have a clear replacement, having lost top reserve offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai this off-season as well, after he flashed on 477 snaps last season.

Third year offensive lineman Matt Pryor figures to get the first crack at the job, but he’s played just 79 snaps in 2 seasons in the league and wasn’t highly thought of coming out of college, going in just the 6th round in 2018. Outside of him, the Eagles’ best option is probably 4th round rookie Jack Driscoll, so it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles go out and add a veteran at some point, with Brooks having just gone down a couple weeks ago as of this writing.

One veteran option could be simply reuniting with long-time left tackle Jason Peters. Peters started 140 games on the blindside for the Eagles in 11 seasons with the team and he still finished 6th among offensive tackles on PFF in 13 starts in 2018, but was not brought back this off-season, ahead of his age 38 season, in favor of 2019 first round pick Andre Dillard. Peters likely wouldn’t be a candidate to move to guard, but the Eagles could move Dillard inside there for a year and would likely upgrade two spots at once. Drafted 22nd overall, Dillard is probably the future at left tackle, but there’s some concern about handing the blindside job over to him after 337 underwhelming snaps as a rookie as an injury replacement, especially with Brooks also gone. For now, Dillard is tentatively locked in on the blindside and he has obvious upside, but he’s far from a sure thing.

While left tackle and right guard are question marks, this rest of this offensive line remains the same. Right tackle Lane Johnson is probably their best offensive lineman with Brooks out. Drafted 4th overall in 2019, Johnson has made 92 starts in 7 seasons in the league and has finished in the top-23 on PFF in 6 straight seasons, with 4 finishes in the top-10 and a career best 2nd ranked finish in 2019. Johnson is going into his age 30 season, but he’s shown no sign of slowing down and even if he did decline a little he’d still be one of the best players in the league at his position.

Center Jason Kelce has also been one of the best players at his position for a long-time, making 108 of 112 starts over the past 7 seasons and finishing in the top-5 among centers on PFF in 6 of those 7 seasons, including 3 straight #1 finishes. Kelce’s age is becoming a concern though, going into his age 33 season, so he’s unlikely to be quite as good this year as he’s been in the past few years, even if he ends up among the top players at his position once again when all is said and done.

Left guard Isaac Seumalo is also coming off of a strong season, finishing 18th among guards on PFF, but he’s not nearly as proven as Johnson and Kelce. Seumalo was a relatively high pick, going in the 3rd round in 2016, but he was underwhelming in 15 spot starts in his first 3 seasons in the league, before breaking out as a 16-game starter in 2019. He’s a one-year wonder and might not be as good in 2020, but he could also remain a solid starter for years to come, only going into his age 27 season. The Eagles will badly need him, Kelce, and Johnson to stay healthy on an offensive line that is already missing key players from last season and that lacks depth overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Even with the Eagles lacking much financial flexibility this off-season, they still did make one big signing to somewhat offset their other losses, signing ex-Steeler defensive tackle Javon Hargrave to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal. Hargrave will have a cap hit of just 3.45 million this season thanks to some creative cap structuring, but Hargrave’s money will show up on the cap at some point or another, so the financially inflexible Eagles need any big contracts they sign to pan out. Fortunately, that shouldn’t be too much of a concern with Hargrave, who was one of the best defensive players available in free agency this off-season, regardless of position. 

A third round pick in 2016, Hargrave was primarily a base package nose tackle in the Steelers’ 3-4 defense for the first three years of his career, maxing out at 493 snaps, but he flashed as a pass rusher (8.1% pressure rate), in addition to playing well against the run, and in 2019 he took over an every down role in the absence of Stephon Tuitt and broke out with the best year of his career. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked interior defender on a career high 680 snaps, stuffing the run at a high level and adding 4 sacks, 2 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate. Hargrave might not be quite as good as last year in 2020, but he has three down ability inside at defensive tackle in the Eagles’ 4-3 defense and is still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season.

Hargrave will start alongside incumbent Fletcher Cox and they’ll be arguably the best interior defender duo in the NFL, as Cox has been consistently one of the best defensive tackles in the league in recent years. Cox finished last season 8th among interior defenders on PFF and that was actually his worst finish since 2014. All in all, Cox has made 119 starts in 8 seasons in the league and he has finished in the top-14 among interior defenders on PFF in 6 straight seasons, with 39.5 sacks, 71 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate over that stretch, while playing at a high level against the run. Going into his age 30 season, Cox’s age is becoming a concern, but he should remain one of the better players at his position for at least another couple seasons.

The Eagles will also get Malik Jackson back as a reserve, after a foot injury ended his 2019 season after 32 snaps. Jackson was once one of the better players in the league at his position in his prime, finishing in the top-31 among interior defenders on PFF in 4 straight seasons from 2014-2017, but he fell to 96th out of 130 qualifiers in 2018, missed most of last season, and now is heading into his age 30 season, so his best days are likely behind him. The Eagles likely would have let him go this off-season if his salary wasn’t guaranteed on the 3-year, 30 million dollar deal he signed last off-season, but he could still be valuable in a reserve role behind arguably the best defensive tackle duo in the NFL. This is one of the best interior defender groups in the league, a big upgrade from last season when they were very thin behind Cox.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

Along with Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave in the middle, the Eagles also have a dominant player on the edge of this defensive line in Brandon Graham. Like Cox, Graham is a former first round pick (2010) who has been consistently one of the best players in the league at his position for years. Graham’s career got off to a slow start because of two injury plagued years and then it took him a few years to become a regular starter, even after playing at a high level as a reserve, but in total he’s finished in the top-19 among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 8 seasons, including 6 seasons in the top-10. 

Also a high level run stuffer, Graham has totaled a ridiculous 15.0% pressure rate over those past 8 seasons, including five seasons as a regular starter (73 starts). Graham’s age is becoming a concern, going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, though his 16th ranked finish among edge defenders was his “worst” season since 2014. Even if Graham declines in 2020, he should remain among the better players at his position.

Another former first round pick (14th overall in 2017) Derek Barnett remains as the starter opposite Graham, although he hasn’t been the same caliber of player. Barnett was a solid reserve as a rookie (424 snaps), got off to a decent start to the 2018 season in his first year as a starter, before suffering a shoulder injury that ended his season after 6 games, and then last season in his first full season as a starter, he disappointed, finishing as PFF’s 89th ranked edge defender out of 118 qualifiers. Barnett is still only going into his age 24 season with a high ceiling and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be better in 2020 than 2019, but it becomes less and less likely every year that he will ever deliver on his promise.

Vinny Curry was the top reserve last season with 393 snaps played and he excelled as a situational pass rusher (16.0% pressure rate), but he was not brought back for his age 32 season. In his absence, the Eagles could get more from last year’s #4 defensive end Josh Sweat, who was alright in 352 snaps in the first legitimate action of his career, after being drafted in the 4th round in 2018, but most likely it will be Genard Avery, a mid-season trade acquisition last season, who sees the biggest uptick in snaps with Curry gone.

Avery only played 34 snaps after being acquired by the Eagles, but they gave up a 2021 4th round pick for him, so they clearly have a role for him in mind long-term. Avery still has two years left on his rookie deal, so the Eagles likely made that move with the future in mind more than the present. Now that Avery has more time in the system under his belt, I would expect him to play significantly more, especially with Curry’s departure freeing up snaps. Drafted in the 5th round in 2018 by the Browns, Avery played a hybrid off ball linebacker/edge defender role as a rookie and flashed as a situational pass rusher, with 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, but he weirdly fell out of the rotation entirely in 2019, playing just 5 snaps with the Browns, before being traded to the Eagles. 

With the Eagles, Avery is likely to just focus on being a reserve defensive end rather than playing linebacker as well. He’s undersized at 6-0 250, but he could still be a valuable situational rusher for them going forward. With him and Sweat, the Eagles have adequate depth behind Graham and Barnett, though Barnett remains a question mark, having been underwhelming through 3 seasons in the league.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles have the highest payroll in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. It’s also a pretty top heavy payroll, with 9 players making at least 10+ million annually and 12 players making at least 8+ million annually. One consequence of a top heavy payroll is that there are some position groups that get very little investment. For the Eagles, that is definitely the case in the linebacking corps this season. 

The Eagles released veteran Nigel Bradham ahead of a 8 million non-guaranteed owed to him in 2020, even though he was their best off ball linebacker last season and led the position with 717 snaps played. The Eagles also lost their 3rd linebacker in terms of snaps played Kamu Grugier-Hill (300 snaps) in free agency and released veteran hybrid safety/linebacker Malcolm Jenkins ahead of 7.85 million non-guaranteed. As a result, they are reworking their linebacking corps on the fly and they are doing it without making significant outside investments.

Free agent acquisition Jatavis Brown is probably the closest thing to a replacement for Bradham that they added this off-season, though the Eagles signed him for close to the minimum. A 5th round pick in 2016, Brown played 40.5 snaps per game in his first 3 seasons in the league, faring well in coverage, but struggling against the run, but in the final year of his rookie deal in 2019, Brown was limited to just 94 defensive snaps as primarily a special teams player. It wouldn’t be hard for him to carve out at least a role as a situational coverage linebacker, but he’s a very underwhelming starting option and may end up focusing on special teams.

Another free agent acquisition Will Parks is probably the closest thing to a replacement for Malcolm Jenkins, as Parks has the versatility to play safety, slot cornerback, and linebacker, but he’s never topped 597 snaps in a season in 4 seasons in the league, so he’s probably not an every down option, and he’s earned a below average grade from Pro Football Focus in 3 of those 4 seasons, so he’s an obvious dropoff talent wise from Jenkins, even if he does have the same versatility. Parks will likely see sub package snaps as a linebacker, in addition to any snaps he may play in the secondary in base packages.

Holdovers Nathan Gerry and TJ Edwards will also be in the mix for snaps. Gerry ranked 2nd on the team with 620 snaps as a linebacker, so he’ll likely be locked into a starting role in 2020, even though he struggled last season, finishing 61st out of 100 qualifying off ball linebackers on PFF in the first significant action of the 2017 5th round pick’s career. He’s unlikely to be much better in 2020, but the Eagles don’t really have another option.

Edwards, meanwhile, flashed on 112 snaps as a run stuffer last season, despite being just an undrafted rookie. He showed he deserves a larger role in his 2nd season, but he’s still a projection to that role, so he’s no guarantee to develop into a long-term starter. The Eagles also have veteran Duke Riley, who played just 29 snaps for the Eagles last season, but played 632 snaps between 2017-2018 (16 starts) with the Falcons, primarily as a base package run stuffer. He’ll be in the mix for a base package role with Gerry and Edwards, even though he struggled mightily with the Falcons. Third round rookie Davion Taylor could also be in the mix, though he enters the league very raw. This is a very underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C-

Secondary

The Eagles will also have to replace Malcolm Jenkins in the secondary and he was a solid starter last season, even if the aging veteran had dropped off a little from previous seasons. Also gone are veteran backups Andrew Sendejo and Johnathan Cyprien, who have starting experience in the past, so this is a very different safety group from last season. I already mentioned Will Parks, who will be in the mix for snaps in the secondary as well. He’ll primarily be competing for playing time with converted cornerback Jalen Mills and 4th round rookie K’Von Wallace, with Mills being the likely favorite for the job. 

A 7th round pick in 2016, Mills has primarily played cornerback thus far in his career, but he’s earned a below average grade from Pro Football Focus in 3 of 4 seasons in the league and he has adequate size (6-0 196), so the Eagles are trying him at safety, though he’s no guarantee to be better there. He also hasn’t been durable in recent years, missing 15 out of a possible 32 games over the past two seasons combined.

Rodney McLeod remains as the other starting safety, re-signed to a 2-year, 8.65 million dollar deal this off-season, after making all 16 starts in 2019. McLeod didn’t fare all that well last season, finishing slightly below average on PFF (56th out of 100 qualifying safeties), after 4 straight above average seasons prior to 2019. He also missed most of 2018 with a knee injury and is now going into his age 30 season, so it’s unlikely he finds his prime pre-2018 form again. He should remain a capable starter, but an underwhelming one.

Part of the reason why Mills is moving to safety is because the Eagles are significantly deeper and more talented at cornerback this season than they’ve been in the past. The headline move was the acquisition of long-time Lions #1 cornerback Darius Slay for the price of a third round pick, a fifth round pick, and a 3-year, 50.05 million dollar extension, but the Eagles also made a great under the radar signing when they signed slot cornerback Nickell Roby-Coleman to a one-year deal that doesn’t pay him much more than the minimum.

Slay should be an upgrade over anyone the Eagles had at cornerback last season, but he was a risky acquisition at a high price, as he’s actually coming off of a pretty down season, finishing below average on PFF, after five straight seasons in the top-28 at his position prior. Slay is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential, but he’s also never finished higher than 10th among cornerbacks on PFF in 7 seasons in the league, so he could easily prove to not be quite worth top cornerback money over the duration of his new contract. 

Robey-Coleman, meanwhile, has finished above average in 4 straight seasons, including 3 straight seasons in the top-20 among cornerbacks on PFF. That’s a little misleading because Robey-Coleman is a pure slot cornerback (85.3% of his snaps on the slot), who predictably struggles outside at 5-8 180 when asked to play there, but his 0.77 yards per route run allowed on the slot over the past four seasons is among the best in the NFL and, only going into his age 28 season, I don’t expect that to suddenly change in Philadelphia. Even if it’s only for a year, Robey-Coleman will likely be a steal for an Eagles team that has had trouble finding a consistent slot cornerback in recent years.

At the other outside cornerback spot opposite Slay, the Eagles have a trio of holdovers competing for playing time: Rasul Douglas (583 snaps in 2019), Avonte Maddox (518 snaps), Sidney Jones (293 snaps). Douglas and Maddox both earned below average grades from PFF, finishing 116th and 89th respectively out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks last season, and have never been better than a middling cornerback since entering the league as a 2017 3rd round pick and a 2018 4th round pick respectively. Both still have some potential, but it’s possible neither ever develops into a consistent starter. 

Jones was a little better last season, but didn’t play that much and has been limited to just 643 snaps in 3 seasons since being drafted by the Eagles in the 2nd round in 2017, in part due to injury, in part due to ineffectiveness. He also has upside, but the #2 cornerback is a question mark. The addition of Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman make them better at cornerback, but the loss of Malcolm Jenkins without a true replacement will be significant and this is still a questionable secondary overall.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Eagles still have a lot of veteran talent on this team, but it’s tough to keep all your players under the cap once you start paying your quarterback at the top of the market, after some underwhelming drafts, and the cracks are definitely getting bigger on this roster, with an underwhelming defensive backend, and a declining offensive line and running game. They should still compete for a playoff spot this year and aren’t in real trouble until next season when they have to figure out how to clear at least 50 million in cap just to get to even, but they’re significantly behind the Cowboys in the division, as the Cowboys should have better luck in close games this season, and the Eagles are not guaranteed to pick up one of the three wild card spots either, in a loaded NFC. It would help if they could find more low cost help in free agency at positions like linebacker, guard, and running back. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Update: The Eagles re-signed Jason Peters and he will replace Brooks at right guard, at least to start the season, though it wouldn’t surprise if he ended up at left tackle if Dillard doesn’t progress. Either way, he’s a big re-addition for this team and he improves their playoff chances.

Final Update: The Eagles continue to have injury problems, with their receiving corps becoming even more banged up and Jason Peters now moving back to left tackle to replace Andre Dillard, who is also out for the season for injury. They could still make the post-season, but they’re a long way behind the Cowboys.

Projection: 8-8 (2nd in NFC East)

Dallas Cowboys 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

In 2018, the Cowboys won the division at 10-6, but they had just a +15 point differential and ranked 17th in first down rate differential at -0.03%, with their record largely being the product of going 8-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. A team’s record in close games tends to be very unpredictable on a year-to-year basis, so it was foreseeable that the Cowboys would have less success in close games in 2019, but what was not foreseeable was that the Cowboys would go totally the other way and go 0-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Aside from their inability to close out close games, the Cowboys were significantly better in 2019 than they were in 2018, finishing 6th in point differential at +113 and 4th in first down rate differential at +4.28%, but all of their close losses caused the Cowboys to miss the post-season entirely at 8-8.

Just like the it was foreseeable that the Cowboys would do worse in close games in 2019 than they did in 2018, it’s now foreseeable that the Cowboys will do better in those games in 2020. The Cowboys were far and away better than any other non-playoff qualifier in first down rate differential and point differential, so if they can match those totals in 2020, they shouldn’t have much problem at all making the playoffs. That being said, this isn’t quite the same Cowboys team as last season, so they might not have quite as impressive of a first down rate and point differential. Like the Cowboys won fewer games in 2019 than 2018 despite being a better team, the Cowboys could easily win more games in 2020 than 2019, even if they aren’t as talented.

One key player who remains is quarterback Dak Prescott, who the Cowboys weren’t letting go anywhere this off-season, keeping him on the exclusive franchise tag. The exclusive franchise tag is worth 31.409 million for quarterbacks this season, but that’s actually relatively cheap compared to what it will cost annually to extend Prescott long-term, as Prescott turned down an extension worth 33 million annually and wants to at least surpass Russell Wilson’s 35 million annually to become the highest paid quarterback in the league on his next contract.

Even though most expect the two sides to get a deal done at some point, it doesn’t sound like they’ve made much progress this off-season. Prescott can afford to be patient, playing a position with relatively little chance of a career altering injury, with endorsements and insurance money locked in, and roughly 68 million owed to him if he’s franchised twice for 2020 and 2021, followed by an opportunity at free agency in 2022, when the salary cap is expected to increase significantly following a new TV deal. Perhaps the Cowboys, recognizing Prescott’s leverage, will significantly up their offer at the eleventh hour, having until the middle of July to work out a long-term deal ahead of the franchise tag deadline.

Regardless of how the contract works out long-term, Prescott will almost definitely be the Cowboys’ week 1 starting quarterback in 2020. Even though he’s likely to be paid at the top of the quarterback market, Prescott hasn’t quite been a top level quarterback thus far in his career, ranking 8th, 18th, 19th, and 11th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus in 4 seasons in the league respectively. Still, he’s going into his age 27 season with 64 career starts and the reality of the NFL is that an experienced quarterback in his prime who is proven as an above average starter always ends up getting paid. 

That being said, if the Cowboys can’t come to an agreement with Prescott this off-season, they might be better off trying to tag and trade him next off-season in an attempt move up in the draft and get a long-term replacement, as his price is only going to keep going higher as other quarterbacks sign and, unless he takes a significant step forward, at some point he wouldn’t be worth it, especially if he could return valuable draft assets in a trade. 

Prescott is certainly good enough to win a Super Bowl, but you need to give him a lot of help and the Cowboys would have a difficult time doing that consistently if they are paying Prescott 40+ million annually, even if the cap is set to increase significantly. No team has won the Super Bowl since 1994 with more than 12.5% of the cap committed to the quarterback position and just 6 teams have won it over that stretch with a quarterback taking up more than 10% of the cap. While it wouldn’t surprise me if a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes were able to win a Super Bowl while making 40 million annually, Prescott is simply not that caliber of a quarterback. Once they sign Prescott long-term, the Cowboys’ Super Bowl window could close fast.

The Cowboys have never had a good backup for Prescott, but they “splurged” this off-season by signing ex-Bengals starter Andy Dalton to a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal to be their #2 and he’ll arguably be the top backup quarterback in the NFL. A 2nd round pick in 2011, Dalton made 133 starts in 9 seasons in Cincinnati, completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 204 touchdowns, and 118 interceptions (87.5 QB rating) and finished in the top-21 among quarterbacks on PFF in 6 of those seasons, but he’s coming off of probably the worst season of his career (78.3 QB rating, 25th among 39 qualifying quarterbacks on PFF) and he’s going into his age 33 season, so it’s unsurprising he couldn’t find a starting job this off-season. That being said, there might not be much dropoff if Dalton had to start for a few games in case of a Prescott injury, so he was a steal for the Cowboys on a cheap one-year deal.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, this isn’t quite the same Cowboys team as last season. In fact, they had the 3rd most losses this off-season of any team in the league in terms of 2019 snap count, losing 33.5% of snaps played last season. The biggest loss was center Travis Frederick, as, not only is he a talented player who finished 12th among centers on Pro Football Focus in 2019 in 16 starts, but the Cowboys also didn’t do much to replace him. 

In his prime from 2014-2017, Frederick was arguably the best center in the league, finishing in the top-4 among centers on PFF in all 4 seasons, but he unfortunately had an illness that cost him all of 2018, affected him into 2019, and caused him to want to retire early this off-season, ahead of what would have been only his age 29 season. Even if he wasn’t the same player in 2019 as he was in his prime, he’s a big loss for a Cowboys team that needs a lot to continue going right if they’re going to match their 3rd ranked finish in first down rate (39.94%) from last season.

The Cowboys have a few options to replace Frederick, all of which are questionable. Veteran Joe Looney made all 16 starts in Frederick’s absence in 2018, but he finished 31st out of 39 qualifying centers and has otherwise been a backup in his career, making just 14 starts in his other 7 seasons combined. Now going into his age 30 season, Looney is unlikely to get any better, so the Cowboys are likely hoping either 2019 3rd round pick Connor McGovern or 4th round rookie Tyler Biadasz can run away with the starting job in training camp. McGovern has the better shot because he has at least an off-season under his belt, but he missed all of his rookie year with a torn pectoral, so both he and Biadasz are questionable options.

McGovern and Biadasz could also see some action at left guard. They both have experience at guard and incumbent starter Connor Williams is likely questionable for the start of the season after suffering a torn ACL late last season, while his replacement down the stretch Xavier Su’a-Filo is now in Cincinnati. Even if Williams can play week 1, he may not be 100% right away. It’s a shame because the 2018 2nd round pick had taken a step forward in his 2nd season in the league, earning a middling grade from PFF after struggling as a rookie. His injury dampens his long-term outlook a little and he might not be ready for the start of the season, though he still projects as a starter long-term, especially since he’s still only going into his age 23 season.

The rest of this offensive line is still strong fortunately, as left tackle Tyron Smith, right guard Zack Martin, and right tackle La’El Collins were all among the best players in the league at their respective positions in 2019. That has been the case for Smith and Martin for years. Smith, who finished last season 14th among offensive tackles on PFF, has finished in the top-15 at his position on PFF in 7 straight seasons, while Martin, who finished last season 3rd among guards on PFF, has finished in the top-5 at his position on PFF in 6 straight seasons. Despite their extended success, both are still somewhat in their primes, going into just their age 30 season, having shown no real signs of decline yet.

Collins, meanwhile, is coming off easily the best season of his career, finishing 4th among offensive tackles on PFF, after having never finished higher than 31st in a season. Collins went undrafted in 2015 despite first round talent because of some terrible timing, as he was a suspect in a murder case before the draft and couldn’t talk to police to clear his name until after. The Cowboys immediately played him in as a starter and, while he struggled out of position early in his career at guard, he’s made 47 starts at right tackle over the past 3 seasons, earning at least an average grade from PFF in all 3 seasons, and making a significant year-to-year improvement each season before putting it all together in 2019. He might not be quite as good in 2020, but he’s a very talented offensive lineman who is still just in his age 27 season, so he should remain one of the better right tackles in the league for at least the next few seasons. Center and left guard are concerns, but the rest of this offensive line is strong.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Cowboys also lost starting starting slot receiver Randall Cobb and tight end Jason Witten this off-season and they were 3rd and 4th on the team with slash lines of 55/828/3 and 63/529/4 respectively. Despite their production, however, they won’t be missed, as the Cowboys should be able to replace both. Witten will be replaced internally by former backup Blake Jarwin, who actually comes with a lot more upside as a receiver. Witten is a future Hall of Famer who was one of the best receiving tight ends in the league in his prime, but he averaged just 1.19 yards per route run in 2019 and earned a negative grade from Pro Football Focus for his receiving, while Jarwin averaged 1.82 yards per route run and earned a positive grade from PFF, albeit on about half the snaps. 

Undrafted in 2017, Jarwin has flashed as a receiver throughout his career, with 1.56 yards per route run on 430 career routes, and, while it’s not a guarantee, he could easily translate that to a larger role in 2020. Depth is the concern at tight end, especially since Jarwin isn’t nearly as good as Witten as a blocker. The Cowboys didn’t make any real additions to replace Witten as a blocker and instead will be counting on 3rd year tight end Dalton Schultz to take a step forward and be the #2 tight end. He’s flashed as a run blocker thus far in his career, but the 2018 4th round pick has played just 417 career snaps and has caught just 13 career passes.


Cobb, meanwhile, will be replaced by first round rookie CeeDee Lamb, so, even though Cobb earned a slightly above average grade from PFF in 2019, there shouldn’t be much, if any drop off in the short-term and in the long-term Lamb has the potential to be the best of possibly a very strong wide receiver draft. Lamb was not expected to be available at 17 and the Cowboys had more pressing needs, but it’s hard to argue that the Cowboys shouldn’t have taken him, given that he fell into their lap and gives them arguably the top wide receiver trio in the league, with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup both returning after being one of five wide receiver duos in the league to surpass 1000 yards receiving yards in 2019.

For Cooper, it was the 4th time he’d topped that mark in 5 seasons in the league since being drafted 4th overall in 2015 by the Raiders, though that doesn’t tell you the whole story of the ups and downs of his career. Cooper started out his career with back-to-back 1000+ yard seasons, going for 72/1070/6 in 2015 and 83/1153/5 in 2016, but then hit an unexplainable lull for a year in a half, as he averaged a 56/768/6 slash line per 16 games over a 20-game stretch in 2017 and the first half of 2018. Cooper was then traded to the Cowboys for a first round pick and his career was revitalized overnight, as he’s averaged a 84/1225/9 slash line per 16 games in 25 games since arriving in Dallas and is coming off of a career best 8th ranked finish among wide receivers on PFF.

Cooper was given a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal with 40 million guaranteed to stick around long-term as a free agent this off-season, making him the 2nd highest paid wide receiver in the league now behind Julio Jones, and it’s possible he could coast a little like he seemingly was for a stretch in Oakland now that he has significant guarantees locked down, but it’s also encouraging that Cooper reportedly took less money to stay in Dallas over signing with the last place Redskins and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he could even keep getting better. As long as he stays motivated and healthy, Cooper should be one of the top wide receivers in the league for years to come.

Gallup, meanwhile, had never topped 1000 yards in a season prior to last season, though it’s hard to fault him, given that last season was just the 2018 3rd round pick’s second season in the league. Gallup played significantly as a rookie too, but was more of a snap eater than anything, before breaking out with a 66/1107/6 slash line and a 34th ranked finish among wide receivers on PFF in 2019. Gallup is technically a one-year wonder, but going into his age 24 season, he still has a massive upside. With Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb all young and under contract beyond this year, it’s hard to find a team with a better wide receiver situation, especially when you add in Tavon Austin, a useful 4th receiver who sees some situational work as a speedster (303 snaps in 2019), and tight end Blake Jarwin comes with upside as well.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Cowboys don’t just have great skill position talent in the receiving corps, but they also have that at the running back position, led by feature back Ezekiel Elliott. Since being drafted 4th overall by the Cowboys in 2016, Elliott has arguably been the league’s best runner, rushing for 5,405 yards and 40 touchdowns on 1,169 carries (4.62 YPC) in 56 games. In addition, he’s exceeded 50% carry success rate in all 4 seasons and has ranked in the top-4 at his position in that metric in 3 of 4 seasons in the league. Last season, he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked running back in rushing grade, while rushing for 1,357 yards and 12 touchdowns on 301 carries (4.51 YPC). 

There’s always uncertainty at the running back position, but Elliott is going into just his age 25 season with no real injury history, so he’s about as sure of a thing as there is at the position. The one knock against him is he’s just an average player in the passing game, catching 189 passes in 56 career games with a 54/420/2 slash line in 2019, and missing blitz pick ups from time-to-time, but he’s still a pretty complete running back.

Elliott isn’t the only talented back the Cowboys have either, as backup Tony Pollard flashed in limited action, rushing for 5.29 yards per carry, with 4.51 of those yards per carry coming after contact, and earning PFF’s 3rd ranked rushing grade among running backs. He only saw 86 carries, but that’s actually a lot when you consider that Elliott made all 16 starts and topped 300 carries on the season and his low carry total makes his 23 broken tackles all the more impressive. Between those broken tackles and his yards after contact, Pollard had the highest elusive rating in the NFL, suggesting the Cowboys might not see much drop off at the running back position even if Elliott were to get hurt.

The Cowboys made a concerted effort to get Pollard involved even while giving Elliott feature back type carries last season and, given the success he had in limited action as a fourth round rookie in 2019, they’re likely to do so again this season. Pollard may also see more action in passing situations to give Elliott more rest in situations where he doesn’t thrive. This is probably the best backfield in the NFL, with a legitimate feature back backed up by one of the best backups in the league.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

While the Cowboys have a few changes on offense this season, their defense is the unit that has seen the most significant changes, as 7 of their top-14 in snaps played from a season ago are no longer with the team. Their offense is likely to not be quite as good as last season when they ranked 3rd in first down rate, given that they’ll be without center Travis Frederick and likely will have more injuries than they had last season when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, but their defense was middle of the pack last season, ranking 17th in first down rate allowed, so some changes could benefit them on this side of the ball.

No position had more changes than inside at defensive tackle, as their top-3 interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season, Maliek Collins (763 snaps), Chrisitan Covington (481 snaps), and Michael Bennett (429 snaps), are all no longer with the team. All three were capable, but unspectacular players who were snap eaters more than anything. They will be replaced by free agent acquisitions Dontari Poe and Gerald McCoy and third round rookie Neville Gallimore.

Poe and McCoy come to Dallas on deals worth 8.5 million over 2 years and 18.3 million over 3 years respectively and they figure to be the starters. Both players started last season with the Panthers and both earned above average grades from Pro Football Focus. Both players have also seen better days though and they are getting up there in age, heading into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively. 

Poe used to be one of the most durable interior defenders in the league, averaging 53.7 snaps per game from 2012-2017, but he’s been limited to 33.9 snaps per game in 27 games over the past two seasons and went down for the season last year with a torn quad during week 12. He’s still been useful in a rotational role, but he’s not what he was. McCoy, meanwhile, finished in the top-19 among interior defenders in 5 of 6 seasons from 2012-2017, but he’s fallen to 30th in 2018 and 34th in 2019. Both should be solid starters and largely upgrades, but they’re not what they were and they could easily continue declining.

Gallimore, meanwhile, will compete for reserve snaps with 2018 2nd round pick Trysten Hill, who will likely have a larger role after playing 121 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, and 5th year veteran Antwaun Woods. Woods played 585 snaps in 2018 and wasn’t bad, but he struggled in 310 snaps in 10 games last season and the 2016 undrafted free agent hasn’t had much success in any of his other seasons in the league, so he’s best as a backup. The Cowboys don’t have a standout player at this position, but they have good depth and their starters should be somewhat improved over last season.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Cowboys also lose their #2 and #3 in terms of snaps played on the edge at defensive end, Robert Quinn (647 snaps) and Kerry Hyder (439 snaps). Quinn is the bigger loss, as he led the team with a 14.1% pressure rate, but Hyder was valuable as a rotational run stuffer as well. To replace them, the Cowboys are counting on some bounce back years. They have long-time Cowboy Tyrone Crawford (8 seasons with the team) coming back from a hip injury that limited him to 90 snaps in 4 games last season and they have a pair of players who haven’t played in at least a season due to suspension in Randy Gregory and Aldon Smith.

Smith is the most interesting story of the bunch. Drafted 7th overall in 2011, Smith burst onto the scene with 42 sacks, 37 hits, and a 15.8% pressure rate over the first 3 seasons of his career, while finishing in the top-7 among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons, but he was arrested for DUI midway through his 3rd season and things went downhill quickly from there.

Smith missed 5 games in 2013 while in rehab, then was suspended 9 games in 2014, 7 games in 2015, and hasn’t played a snap ever since, with multiple off-the-field incidents over that stretch. The NFL reinstated him this off-season and the Cowboys took a flyer, but it’s unclear how much he can contribute, given that he’s going into his age 31 season, that he hasn’t played in close to 5 seasons, and that he had his last high level season in 2013, as he was not the same player in 2014 and 2015, with a 12.0% pressure rate and middling grades on PFF.

Gregory, meanwhile, is still technically suspended, but he’s tentatively expected to be reinstated. He’s only missed one season on this most recent suspension, but suspensions also limited him to 2 games in 2016-2017 combined. All in all, he’s played just 768 snaps in 5 years since the Cowboys took him in the 2nd round in 2015. He’s flashed as a pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 16 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate, but he’s left something to be desired against the run, not surprising given his 6-5 250 frame. Gregory is still only going into his age 28 season and, after just a year off, has a better chance of shaking off the rust and being a valuable contributor as a sub package rusher, but he’s hardly a reliable player.

Crawford is probably the most reliable of the bunch, but he’s far from a sure thing, given that he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off of a serious injury. Prior to last season, Crawford had earned an above average grade from PFF in back-to-back and three of the previous five seasons, showing well as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher in all 3 seasons. Even if he’s not quite the same player, he could still be useful in a rotational role if he can stay on the field.

The only one locked into a role is DeMarcus Lawrence, who has been an every down player on the edge for three straight seasons. Over that time, he has totaled 30 sacks, 38 hits, and a 14.3% pressure rate, while excelling against the run as well. His sack total fell to 5 in 2019, but his peripheral pass rush numbers kept up (12 hits, 12.6% pressure rate) and he finished as PFF’s 13th ranked edge defender overall, his 3rd straight season in the top-13 at his position (1st in 2017 and 7th in 2018). Only in his age 28 season, having not missed a game in 3 seasons, I see no reason to expect a dropoff from him other than a fluke injury. He elevates a position group with a lot of certainty.

Update: Randy Gregory is now reportedly unlikely to be reinstated, making Aldon Smith and Tyrone Crawford even more important.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In 2018, the Cowboys had arguably the best off ball linebacker duo in the NFL, as every down linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch finished 5th and 6th respectively among off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus. In 2019, things were very different, as Smith slid to 19th at his position, while Vander Esch fell all the way to 59th and was limited to 510 snaps in 9 games by a neck injury that ruined his season. A first round pick in 2018, Vander Esch has obvious bounce back potential if he’s healthy, but his neck problems date back to his collegiate days and were flagged by some teams before the draft, so he’s not a sure thing to bounce back.

Smith’s “down” year is less concerning, as he was still one of the better off ball linebackers in the league. Also finishing 27th among off ball linebackers in his first season as a starter in 2017, Smith has consistently been an above average starter at the very least for 3 seasons and, still only going into his age 25 season, the 2016 2nd round pick could keep getting better. He looks likely to be one of the better off ball linebackers in the league for years to come.

With Vander Esch missing significant time last season, third linebacker and base package specialist Sean Lee was forced into close to an every down role down the stretch last season. Lee played all 16 games for the first time in his injury plagued 10-year career, but was a middling player at best on 637 snaps. Lee was one of the better off ball linebackers in the league in his prime when healthy, but he hasn’t been nearly the same player in recent years, as all of his injuries seem to have piled up and now he’s going into his age 34 season. He could still be useful in a part-time role in sub packages, but the Cowboys are hoping he doesn’t have to play more than that. If Lee plays well in a situational role and Vander Esch and Smith bounce back, this will be one of the top few off ball linebacking corps in the NFL, but there’s some uncertainty here.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Cowboys’ biggest loss on defense this off-season was top cornerback Byron Jones, who signed with the Dolphins on a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. Jones finished last season as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked cornerback, which is more significant than you’d think, as cornerback is a very tough position to play consistently well at and Jones joins Stephon Gilmore as one of just two cornerbacks who have finished in the top-15 at the position on PFF in back-to-back years. 

However, while Jones’ absence will be big, the Cowboys are better prepared for it than most teams, as they went four deep at cornerback last season, with Chidobe Awuzie (1,020 snaps), Jourdan Lewis (590 snaps), and Anthony Brown (282 snaps) all earning average or better grades from PFF, and they used a 2nd round pick on Alabama cornerback Trevon Diggs. Those four will compete for roles in Jones’ absence.

Awuzie will likely remain a starter and become the de facto #1 cornerback. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Awuzie has progressed well thus far in his career, flashing on 309 snaps as a rookie, being a capable starter in 14 starts in his 2nd season, and having a mini-breakout year with a 27th ranked finish in 2019. Awuzie is still a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and could easily keep getting better. We’ll see how often if at all the Cowboys use him to shadow the opponent’s top wide receiver.

Jourdan Lewis is the incumbent on the slot and he’s likely at least locked into that role. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2017, Lewis has earned an above average grade from PFF in all 3 seasons in the league, including a 42nd ranked finish on 590 snaps last season. He has experience playing outside as well, back in his rookie year, so he could be a candidate for an every down role with Jones gone, manning the slot in sub packages and lining up outside as the 2nd cornerback in base packages. He’s never topped 746 snaps in a season, so he’s a projection to an every down role, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and has the potential to develop into an above average starter long-term.

Anthony Brown and Trevon Diggs will also be in the mix for outside snaps opposite Awuzie. Brown has made 33 starts in 56 games in 4 seasons in the league, but he’s never been more than a middling starter and was the clear 4th cornerback last season, so the Cowboys are likely hoping the rookie Diggs can overtake him and play in at least sub packages at some point this season. Diggs went 51st overall in the second round, but was considered a borderline first round pick by many and profiles as a long-term starter, even if he takes a little bit to get there.

At safety, Xavier Woods remains at one spot and at the other spot the Cowboys are hoping free agent acquisition HaHa Clinton-Dix can be an upgrade on the middling Jeff Heath. Woods was just a 5th round pick in 2017, but he’s been more than worth it, earning an above average grade from PFF in all 3 seasons in the league (33 starts), including a career best 27th ranked finish among safeties on PFF in 2019, all before he turned 25 years old. Barring injury, he has a long prime ahead of him and could keep getting even better.

Clinton-Dix, meanwhile, was a first round pick back in 2014 and has been an average or better starter in all 6 seasons in the league (90 starts), including a 17th ranked finish on PFF in 2018 and a 22nd ranked finish on PFF in 2019. Given that, it’s surprising he’s had to settle for one-year deals the past two off-seasons. Signed for just 3.75 million, Clinton-Dix figures to be a steal for the Cowboys this season like he was for the Bears last season. Even without Byron Jones, this is a talented secondary, especially if one of their young defensive backs can break out.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Cowboys’ offense is unlikely to be quite as good as they were last season, as they lost center Travis Frederick and will likely have more injuries than last season, when they had the 2nd fewest adjusted games lost to injury on offense, but they’re arguably more explosive in the receiving corps this year and they’re starting from a high starting point, finishing last season 3rd in first down rate at 39.94%. Their defense, which ranked 17th in first down rate allowed last season, loses top cornerback Byron Jones, but they get an upgrade at safety and defensive tackle and have some promising young players in the back end that could be improved in 2020 over 2019. 

The Cowboys might not be quite as good as they were overall in 2019, when they finished 4th in first down rate differential at +4.28%, but if they do a better job closing out close games after an 0-5 record in one score games, that alone should help them win more games, even if they aren’t quite as good. The Cowboys are also helped by being in one of the easier divisions to win. I would consider them the NFC East favorite at the moment, at the very least. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Cowboys surprisingly cut HaHa Clinton-Dix and lost Gerald McCoy to injury, but they added Everson Griffen, which will be a big boost at defensive end, and overall they still have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL.

Projection: 12-4 (1st in NFC East)

New York Giants 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

For 16 years, the Giants more or less had one quarterback under center. Drafted #1 overall in 2004, Eli Manning took over as the starter in week 11 of his rookie year and then started 232 of the next 233 games until being benched after week 2 of last season for another highly drafted rookie quarterback, 2019 #6 overall pick Daniel Jones. Manning made another 2 starts down the stretch as an injury replacement for Jones to bring his career total to 234 career starts in 16 seasons in the league, but he rode off into the sunset this off-season, officially making this Daniel Jones’ team.

Manning had a mixed career in New York, starting for over a decade in a half, resetting all of the team passing records, and winning a pair of Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVPs, but he never won a playoff game in any of the other 14 seasons, he finished with a .500 record overall, and he never led the league in a passing category other than interceptions. All in all, the Giants will be happy if Jones has the same kind of career, but the jury is very much still out on him.

Not particularly successful in college at Duke University, Jones entered the league with controversy, as most considered Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, who eventually went 15th overall to the Redskins, to be a better quarterback prospect, while Jones was considered to be someone who would have been available with the Giants’ other first round pick at 17 overall. However, the Giants liked him enough to not take any chances and took him 6th overall. 

Jones didn’t do much to quiet his critics as a rookie. He definitely showed flashes of why he was drafted high and he adds much more as a runner than Manning, rushing for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns on 45 carries (6.20 YPC), but he completed just 61.9% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while leading the league with 18 fumbles (5th most in a single season in NFL history), which was a significant knock on him coming out of college. Overall, he was Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked quarterback out of 39 qualifiers last season and the Giants actually had a noticeably worse first down rate (33.99%) in Jones’ 12 starts than in Manning’s 4 starts (37.25%), even though Manning was in his age 38 season and on his last legs.

Jones still has plenty of upside and in some ways his 2019 season is a good first year to build on, but he didn’t change any opinions as a rookie. If you liked him being selected 6th overall a year ago, that is likely still the case, and the same is true for people who didn’t like the pick. It’s easy to expect he’ll be a little better in his 2nd season in the league, especially if he can improve his fumbling issues, but how much better is really up in the air, which makes it tough to project the Giants as a team in 2020. The Giants, for what it’s worth, don’t seem concerned at all about Jones, only bringing in career backup Colt McCoy (28 career starts, 78.4 QB rating in 10 seasons in the league) to hold the clipboard. If he can take a big step forward, this is a team that could make some noise.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The one big thing Daniel Jones has going for him is he has a lot of talent around him on offense. That was true at the skill positions last season too, but the problem was injuries, as their top-5 skill position guys didn’t play a single snap together last season and none of them played all 16 games. Wide receivers Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton were limited to 11 games, 10 games, and 14 games respectively, while pass catching tight end Evan Engram played just 8 games and feature back Saquon Barkley, who is also a big part of their passing game, was limited to 13 games and never seemed quite the same after an early season ankle injury. If those five players can all be healthy or mostly healthy for all or most of next season, this could be one of the more complete receiving corps in the NFL.

Though this is a deep receiving corps, none of them are true #1 receivers. Golden Tate has some experience in that role in the past, averaging a 80/968/5 slash line from 2012-2017, topping 1000 yards in 2014, 2016, and 2017, and finishing in the top-19 on Pro Football Focus among wide receivers in 4 of those 6 seasons, including a career best 7th in 2017. However, he was limited to a 74/795/4 slash line in 15 games in 2018, a 49/676/6 slash line in 11 games in 2019, and now is going into his age 32 season. He has still finished 48th and 35th among wide receivers on PFF in the past two seasons respectively, but at this stage of his career he’s much more of a #2 wide receiver than a #1.

Sterling Shepard is a similar player, although he’s on the way up instead of the way down, going into his age 27 season. A 2nd round pick in 2016, Shepard improved his receiving yardage in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, going from a 65/683/8 slash line as a rookie in 2016 to 59/731/2 in 2017 and 66/872/4 in 2018, and he was seen by many to be a potential breakout option in 2019 with Odell Beckham being traded to the Browns last off-season. 

Shepard had averaged a 84/1085/3 slash line per 16 games in 2017 and 2018 combined without Beckham and the Giants seemed to be trying to pre-emptively sign him long-term ahead of a breakout year, locking him up last off-season on a 4-year, 41 million dollar extension last off-season, but the breakout year never came, as he was limited to a 57/576/3 slash line in 10 games (91/922/5 per 16). Shepard did earn the highest grade of his career on PFF, finishing 23rd among wide receivers after topping out at 45th in the first 3 seasons of his career, a good sign for his chances of having something of a breakout year in 2020 if he can stay on the field.

With Tate and Shepard both missing significant time, rookie Darius Slayton actually led the team with a 48/740/8 slash line, even though he also missed 2 games. Slayton also played just 61 snaps in the first 4 weeks of the season, as he entered the year as an unheralded 5th round pick. He showed himself to be much more than that and earned PFF’s 49th highest grade among wide receivers overall and, while he’s still just a one-year wonder, he looks like a potential long-term starter. He gives them a talented trio of wide receivers with Tate and Shepard. The Giants also get #4 Corey Coleman back after he missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Coleman has had injury problems throughout his career and has just 61 catches in 27 career games, but he’s a former first round pick who is only going into his age 26 season, so he could still have some upside, which makes him not a bad 4th option.

Tight end Evan Engram could also push for the team lead in receiving, although injuries have been a concern for him throughout his career. The 6-3 241 pound former first round pick moves like a wide receiver and has averaged a 72/831/6 slash line per 16 games in 3 seasons in the league, so, only going into his age 26 season, he has the upside to be one of the better pass catching tight ends in the league in 2020, but he’s never made it through a full 16 game season and has missed 14 of 48 possible games total in 3 seasons in the league. He also doesn’t block well at all, which is a more minor concern, but still worth noting.

Blocking tight end Rhett Ellison was also limited to 10 games (18/167/1) last season by injuries and injuries eventually led him to hang them up this off-season, after 8 seasons in the league. Ellison was a consistently an above average run blocker and he was also a reliable set of hands as an underneath target, so replacing him won’t be as easy as it might seem. Veteran Levine Toilolo was signed in free agency, but he hasn’t topped 264 yards receiving in a season in 7 seasons in the league, despite plenty of opportunity, and he isn’t much better as a blocker. Kaden Smith, a 2019 6th round pick who played 434 snaps in the absence of Engram and Ellison last season, could also be in the mix, but he finished 38th out of 44 qualifying tight ends on PFF last season and isn’t much of a run blocker, so he may settle in as the 3rd tight end. Aside from some potential minor depth issues, this is a deep and talented group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley also is a huge part of this offense, both as a runner and as a receiver. The #2 overall pick in 2018, Barkley had an incredible rookie year, rushing for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns on 261 carries (5.01 YPC), while adding a 91/721/4 slash line through the air and finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked running back. His 2019 season was derailed by injuries, however, as he hurt his ankle week 3, missed 3 games, and didn’t seem to be quite his usual self the rest of the way upon his return, finishing with season with 1,003 yards and 6 touchdowns on 217 carries (4.63 YPC) and a 52/438/2 slash line through the air, while ranking 24th among running backs on PFF.

The biggest difference between Barkley’s 2018 performance and his 2019 performance is the relative lack of big plays in 2019. Barkley has actually been below average at keeping this offense on track in his career, with a 41% carry success rate as a rookie (40th out of 47 qualifiers) and a 44% carry success rate last season (38th out of 45 qualifiers), but as a rookie he had 20 carries of 15+ yards for 706 rushing yards that accounted for 54.0% of his rushing total and in 2019 that dropped to 9 carries for 331 rushing yards. 

Big plays are tough to predict on a year-to-year basis, but Barkley has as much big play ability as any running back in the NFL, so I would expect more explosive runs and a better overall season from him in 2020 if he can stay healthy. Injuries are always part of the reality at the running back position more so than anywhere else, but Barkley doesn’t have a real injury history and his return in 3 games last season was actually ahead of schedule, given that he had a 4-8 timetable, even if he wasn’t quite the same back upon his return. Still only going into his age 23 season, Barkley has as much potential as any running back in the league going into 2020 and beyond.

Barkley is also as close to an every down back as they come, ranking 3rd among running backs with 853 snaps played in 2018. Even with Barkley missing 3 games in 2019, the Giants’ backup running backs combined just for 84 total carries. They don’t have bad depth though, as 2017 4th round pick Wayne Gallman has been alright with a 3.99 YPC on 191 carries thus far in his career, while free agent acquisition Dion Lewis has 116 catches over the past 3 seasons and offers some change of pace as well. Perhaps the Giants will take Barkley off the field a little more in 2020 in an effort to keep him healthy, though as durable and talented as he is, it would be hard to blame the Giants if they didn’t.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

One thing that would help Saquon Barkley have a higher carry success rate and keep this offense on track more often would be better offensive line play, which he should have this season. This is a much improved unit from the one that was one of the league’s worst a few years back and this season they have new starters at the two spots of weakness on last year’s line, right tackle Mike Remmers and center Jon Halapio, who both earned negative grades last season. Halapio especially struggled, finishing 32nd out of 35 qualifying centers on Pro Football Focus.

Remmers was replaced with a big investment, as the Giants used the 4th overall pick on Georgia’s Andrew Thomas. Thomas may have a few growing pains as a rookie, but figures to be a capable starter at the very least from the word go and could make a big impact, even as a rookie. The long-term plan may be to move Thomas to left tackle, where Nate Solder is going into his age 32 season and has one expensive year (14 million non-guaranteed) left on his deal after this season. In that scenario, third round rookie Matt Peart would likely be the long-term right tackle.

In the meantime, Peart is unlikely to see action unless an injury strikes, while Nate Solder is likely locked in as the left tackle, going into his 10th season in the league (127 starts). Not only is Solder’s age becoming a concern, but he finished a career worst on PFF last season, earning a middling grade after earning an above average grade in each of the first 9 seasons of his career, including 6 seasons in the top-25 among offensive tackles. He’ll likely remain a capable starter for another couple seasons and may even have a little bounce back potential, but his best days are likely behind him and he could possibly keep declining.

At center, the Giants are having a competition between Spencer Pulley and Nick Gates for the starting role. Pulley is a natural center, while Gates has only ever played guard and tackle, but Gates is probably still the better option. Pulley made 25 starts from 2017-2018 with the Chargers, but finished 38th out of 40 qualifying centers on PFF in 2017 and 29th out of 39 qualifying centers in 2018, before being limited to 95 snaps as the Giants’ backup center last season. He’s a backup caliber talent who would almost definitely continue struggling if counted on to start. 

Gates, meanwhile, is a 2018 undrafted free agent who flashed a lot of potential in the first 291 snaps (3 starts) of his career last season, playing both guard and tackle. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time at either of those positions, so the Giants are trying him at center this off-season. He’s unproven overall and very new to the position, so it’s hard to count on him, but it wouldn’t be difficult for him to be an upgrade over Halapio or Pulley.

Guards Will Hernandez (left) and Kevin Zeitler (remain) as the starters. Zeitler is one of the best guards in the league and has been for a long time, finishing in the top-25 among guards in all 8 seasons in the league (119 starts), including 6 straight seasons in the top-15 and a 7th ranked finish in 2019. His age is a minor concern, going into his age 30 season, but he should remain at least an above average guard. 

Hernandez, meanwhile, went 34th overall in 2018 and looked to be on his way to having a Zeitler type career when he finished 21st among guards on PFF in 2018, but he fell to 57th in 2019, dampening his long-term outlook. Only going into his age 25 season, Hernandez still has a lot of upside and could easily have a bounce back season, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. Even still, this looks like a solid offensive line, especially if Nick Gates can develop at center.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Giants won just 4 games in 2019, but they finished 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.16%, not good, but as bad as their record suggested. The difference is they had a -17 turnover margin on the season. Normally I like first down rate differential as a stat because it minimizes the impact of outlier plays like turnovers, which tend to be totally unpredictable on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis, but the Giants may consistently struggle with the turnover margin as long as they have a fumble prone quarterback under center. 

Even Jones fixes his fumbling problems and the Giants don’t struggle with the turnover margin this season, they weren’t particularly good in first down rate on either side of the ball last season either, ranking 20th in first down rate on offense and 21st in first down rate allowed on defense, so they have problems on both sides of the ball beyond turnover margin. I already got into some of the problems with their offense and there were definitely problems on defense as well. Their 16 takeaways, tied for 3rd worst in the NFL, should improve by pure randomness, so the Giants should have a better turnover margin in 2020 than in 2019 even if Jones continues fumbling, but their other problems aren’t so easily fixed.

The one area without problems is the Giants’ interior defenders and their 3-man defensive line in base packages, as this is definitely the strength of the defense. The Giants go four deep at the position with Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Dalvin Tomlinson, and BJ Hill. All four are recent high draft picks who are still young and all four, strangely enough, are better run stuffers than pass rushers. They’re good players, but ordinarily you don’t want your top-4 players at a position to be all similar. They are the primary reason why the Giants ranked 4th with 3.86 yards per carry allowed last season, but also, along with their lack of edge rushers, they are a big part of why the Giants ranked just 22nd in the NFL with 36 sacks.

Williams is the best pass rusher of the bunch. He only managed a half sack last season, but added a ridiculous 19 quarterback hits and a 10.3% pressure rate. This has been a trend for Williams since he was drafted 6th overall by the Jets in 2015. He has just 17.5 career sacks in 79 career games (75 starts), but has added 86 hits and a 10.0% pressure rate. A strong run stuffer to boot, Williams has gotten an above average grade from Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons in the league (maxing out at 10th in 2016) and his 43rd ranked overall finish in 2019 was actually the worst of his career. His relative down year didn’t stop the Giants from trading a 3rd and a future 5th round pick to acquire him from the Jets at the deadline and then franchise tagging him this off-season for 16.126 million. He’s a talented player and still very much in the prime of his career in his age 26 season, though he was kind of a weird addition to a team that was already deep upfront.

Dexter Lawrence also sees significant sub package snaps, even though he’s built more like a nose tackle at 6-4 342. Drafted 17th overall by the Giants in 2019, Lawrence’s run stopping ability was his best attribute as a rookie, but he added 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate as well and finished as PFF’s 22nd ranked interior defender overall. Lawrence entered the league with a massive ceiling and, still only going into his age 23 season, he has a good chance to keep getting better and develop into one of the better players at his position in the league.

Dalvin Tomlinson and BJ Hill, meanwhile, are primarily base package players. They finished 14th and 11th respectively on PFF among interior defenders in run stopping grade, but combined for just 4.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 5.4% pressure rate. This is nothing new for Tomlinson, as the 2017 2nd round pick has finished in the top-24 among interior defenders in run grade in all 3 seasons in the league, but has managed just a 5.1% pressure rate for his career. 

Hill, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018. He’s a better pass rusher with a career 6.9% pressure rate (although just 6.0% in 2019), but he wasn’t quite as good of a run stuffer as a rookie, so he’s not as proven in that aspect as Tomlinson. With Williams, Lawrence, Tomlinson, and Hill at the position, this is a very deep group and one that should stuff the run again, even if their interior pass rush leaves something to be desired.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As mentioned, the Giants’ edge rushers left something to be desired in 2019 as well. Things are unlikely to be better in 2020 and could easily be worse as they let Markus Golden (who led the team with 10 sacks last season) walk as a free agent. Aside from him, they didn’t have anyone with more than 4.5 sacks last season and they didn’t really replace him, so they should continue having trouble getting to the quarterback in 2020.

The only addition they made to this group was signing ex-Packer Kyler Fackrell to a 1-year, 4.6 million dollar deal in free agency. Fackrell probably won’t play the 917 snaps he played last season, but he should have a significant rotational role, along with holdovers Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines. Fackrell did have a 10.5-sack season in 2018, but the Packers shouldn’t expect anything close to that. 

Fackrell’s peripheral pass rush numbers were very underwhelming in 2018, adding just 2 sacks and a 9.5% pressure rate and earning a middling grade overall from Pro Football Focus. Fackrell also totaled just 6 sacks in his other 3 seasons in the league. Even the Packers weren’t fooled by his sack total, as they added Za’Darius and Preston Smith last off-season on big contracts last off-season and gave Fackrell a reduced role in 2019 (626 snaps in 2018, 415 in 2019). He may play significant snaps with the Giants, but he’s unlikely to be anything more than a snap eater at best.

Carter and Ximines, meanwhile, are recent 3rd round picks, getting drafted in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Both were underwhelming pass rushers last season, 8.8% and 9.3% pressure rate respectively, but Carter has at least developed into a strong run stuffer off the edge and both still have upside to develop into more. The Giants will need one of them to take a big step forward though, or to make a big addition like Jadeveon Clowney or Yannick Ngakoue, otherwise they’ll have one of the more underwhelming edge defender groups in the league.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Giants’ lack of pass rush was a problem last season, but they also had significant problems in the backend of their defense in coverage. With issues rushing the passer and covering pass catchers, it’s unsurprising the Giants had the 3rd highest YPA allowed in the NFL. The Giants’ defense should be strong against the run again, but they’ll need to significantly improve against the pass if this is going to be a respectable defense. The Giants seemed to recognize this, even if they didn’t really address their pass rush, as they made several big investments in their coverage unit this off-season.

At linebacker, the big addition is former Packer Blake Martinez, who comes over on a 3-year, 30.75 million dollar deal. He’ll be a direct replacement for Alec Ogletree, who was released ahead of 10 million non-guaranteed owed in 2020, after finishing just 73rd out of 100 qualifying off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus last season. Martinez has been a tackling machine for the Packers, topping 140 tackles in each of the past 3 seasons, but that’s a little misleading, as he’s actually better in coverage than he is against the run. Overall, he’s earned middling grades from PFF in 4 seasons in the league, so he was a bit of an overpay on a deal that makes him one of the highest paid off ball linebackers in the league, but he should be an upgrade on Ogletree, even if he’s more of a snap eater than anything.

David Mayo remains as the other starting linebacker inside in their 3-4 defense. Mayo is only a two down player (631 snaps last season), but he excelled against the run, finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked off ball linebacker in run grade. Mayo is a one-year wonder who had never topped 145 snaps in a season prior to last season and he struggled mightily in coverage last season, but he’s a former 5th round pick who flashed as a run stuffer in limited action in a deep Panthers linebacking corps in his first 4 seasons in the league prior to joining the Giants last season and the Giants frequently use 3 safeties in sub packages, dropping box safety Jabrill Peppers near the line of scrimmage as a linebacker, so Mayo won’t have to play many passing situations. He should remain a useful situational player. This is an unspectacular group, but with Martinez coming in as an upgrade as an every down linebacker and Mayo and Peppers essentially platooning at the other spot, this isn’t a bad group either.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The secondary is the group that got the biggest investment this off-season, as the Giants signed ex-Panther James Bradberry to a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal to be their #1 cornerback and then used the 36th overall pick to take the draft class’ top safety Xavier McKinney, who projects as a long-term starter. Bradberry essentially replaces Janoris Jenkins, who was released late last season ahead of the final 1 year and 12.5 million of his deal, after an underwhelming 2019 season, while McKinney essentially replaces veteran Antoine Bethea, who was capable in 16 starts last season, but was still released ahead of 2.75 million non-guaranteed for his age 36 season in 2020.

Bradberry will take over immediately as the #1 cornerback and may continue shadowing #1 receivers in that role, as he did in Carolina. He has earned middling grades from Pro Football Focus throughout his 4-year career and has finished in the top-15 among cornerbacks in yards allowed in each of the past 3 seasons, including 2 seasons in the top-7, but he also regularly matched up with #1 wide receivers in a division with Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Mike Evans and he should remain in his prime for at least a few more years, only going into his age 27 season.

When the Giants signed Bradberry, they likely envisioned him and 2019 1st round pick DeAndre Baker starting outside together for years to come, but Baker’s future is murky after an off-season arrest for armed robbery. He could be looking at significant prison time if convicted and is likely at least looking at a lengthy suspension from the league, barring something that totally exonerates him. Baker came into the league with a lot of potential, but he finished 122nd out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks on PFF as a 15-game starter as a rookie and now his long-term future is in doubt.

Baker being unavailable would be a problem, as the Giants have a depth problem at cornerback even with Baker available. Grant Haley, Sam Beal, Julian Love, and Corey Ballentine could all be in the mix for the #3 cornerback job, but they’re all questionable options. Grant Haley is a 2018 undrafted free agent who has played 851 underwhelming snaps in 2 seasons in the league. Sam Beal went in the 3rd round in 2018, but has been limited to 289 mediocre snaps by injury thus far in his career. Corey Ballentine is a 2019 6th round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie on 298 snaps. Julian Love is probably the best of the bunch, flashing on 408 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2019, but he may play some safety too, where he made 4 starts in place of an injured Jabrill Peppers last season. One of those 4 cornerbacks would have to start opposite Bradberry if Baker misses time. Aside from Bradberry, this is a very questionable group.

Second round rookie Xavier McKinney is likely locked in as a starter at safety, though he’ll likely have growing pains as a rookie, while Jabrill Peppers is locked in as well, but Love could still see some time at safety in sub packages, as Peppers is likely to line up as a linebacker with regularity in sub packages. A first round pick in 2017 by the Browns, Peppers was acquired as part of the Odell Beckham trade last year. He struggled as a rookie, but seemingly broke out with a 23rd ranked finish among safeties on PFF in 2018, before falling back to 51st in 2019. Still only going into his age 25 season, Peppers has a lot of bounce back potential and could develop into a consistently above average strong safety/sub package linebacker long-term. The Giants are better at safety than cornerback, but only by default, as this is still an underwhelming secondary overall, despite some big investments this off-season.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Giants should be better on offense, with an improved offensive line, Daniel Jones in his 2nd year in the league, and likely better health at the skill positions, while their defense should force more takeaways and should continue to stuff the run at a high level, but their defense still has a long way to go against pass to be a capable unit and could be even worse rushing the passer this season without their sack leader last year Markus Golden. The Giants’ offense has a lot of potential if Daniel Jones can be even an average starting quarterback, but even in that scenario their defense could still keep them out of a playoff berth and Jones showed he had a lot to work on as a rookie. This team is heading in the right direction, but I wouldn’t expect them to be true post-season contenders.  I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Giants lost Nate Solder to an opt out and cornerback DeAndre Baker to an off-the-field issue, but they signed Logan Ryan as an upgrade at the cornerback spot and they re-signed Markus Golden as well, to give them at least some pass rush, even if he’s not as good as his sack numbers last season suggested. This is still unlikely to be a playoff team, but they won’t be an easy team to beat.

Projection: 5-11 (3rd in NFC East)

Baltimore Ravens 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Quarterback

The Ravens took a big risk at the end of the first round of the draft two years ago. With veteran Joe Flacco coming off multiple consecutive disappointing seasons and not getting any younger or cheaper, the Ravens decided to package together a pair of second round picks to move back into the first round to select quarterback Lamar Jackson at #32 overall. Jackson drew mixed reviews coming out of college because he had unparalleled athletic ability, but was very raw as a passer. Even the Ravens didn’t seem to be totally sold on him, opting to take tight end Hayden Hurst with their original first round pick before trading back up to get Jackson with the last pick in the first round when he continued slipping.

As a rookie, Jackson mostly sat on the bench for the first 9 games of his career behind Flacco as the backup quarterback, though he did see some limited action in ways that made use of his unique abilities (12 pass attempts, 28 carries, 2 pass targets in those 9 games). When Flacco injured his hip, Jackson then took over as the starter the rest of the way. The Ravens made the post-season, but Jackson very much seemed to fit his pre-draft scouting report, rushing for 695 yards and 5 touchdowns on 147 carries (4.73 YPC), but completing just 58.2% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, despite defenses selling out to stop the run. 

Overall, the Ravens ‘offense was actually slightly more effective with Flacco (36.46% first down rate) than it was with Jackson (34.48% first down rate), even though Jackson faced bottom-10 defenses in 5 of his 7 regular season starts. In the post-season against a much tougher Chargers defense, Jackson seemed especially overmatched, as the Ravens were held to 5 first downs through the first three and a half quarters of the game before garbage time. The Ravens moved on from the expensive Flacco last off-season and made Jackson the full-time starter, but there were still a lot of questions about Jackson’s ability to consistently lead a team if he did not improve as a passer.

Jackson answered those questions by improving as a passer arguably as much as any quarterback ever from one year to the next and the results were obvious. Jackson led the Ravens to the best record in the AFC at 14-2 and the NFL’s best first down rate differential at 41.73% and he won the MVP by completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 36 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while still adding an NFL quarterback record 1,206 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on 176 carries (6.85 YPC). He also seemed to get better as the season went on, leading the Ravens to a 39.11% first down rate in his first 7 starts of the season and a 46.00% first down rate in his final 8 starts of the season. 

Jackson isn’t an exceptional passer by any means, but he is able to produce big numbers in the passing game anyway because he is able to create easier passing lanes with his mobility inside and outside the pocket. Many will say that Jackson proved the pre-draft scouting reports wrong, but in reality the scouting reports were right at the time. Even Jackson admitted he didn’t really know how to throw a football properly as a rookie. Jackson simply has gotten significantly better in two seasons in the league and that’s a credit to him and his work ethic.  It’s also a testament to how difficult drafting and pre-draft scouting can be that almost the whole league, including the Ravens, passed on Jackson at least once on draft day.

Credit should also be given to the Ravens for being willing to build their offense around Jackson’s unique skill set and it’s a big boost to this team’s chances of continuing to dominate on offense going forward that they were able to keep offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who understandably attracted head coaching interest this off-season. Roman has a history of working with dual threat quarterbacks in the past, getting the best years of their career out of both Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor, and he’s an excellent fit as this team’s offensive coordinator.

After winning an MVP in his age 22 season, the question for Jackson becomes what comes next. Many expect he’ll continue to get better as he gets more experience, but that’s not always the case. In fact, Jackson could have a Hall-of-Fame caliber career and still only match his 2019 season a couple times. He should remain among the top quarterbacks in the league, but he’s technically still a one-year wonder and I wouldn’t consider him the MVP favorite over guys like Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson or even Drew Brees, who have proven it over multiple high level seasons.

Jackson also has a higher chance than usual for a quarterback of getting hurt, as his playing style leads him to taking significantly more hits. Obviously, the Ravens’ would take a big hit if Jackson were to go down. Backup quarterback Robert Griffin has at least somewhat similar of a skillset to Jackson, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 30th ranked quarterback out of 39 qualifiers in his most recent season as a starter in 2016 and he’s thrown just 44 passes since, with 21 of those coming in an underwhelming start during a meaningless week 17 game last season, with the Ravens locked into the #1 seed. Griffin is probably in the best offense for his skill set, but would likely struggle if he had to start for an extended period of time. The Ravens are obviously hoping that doesn’t happen.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The most noticeable feature of the offense the Ravens have built around Jackson is that they run the ball a lot, they run the ball in all situations, and they run the ball in a variety of different ways. That doesn’t just include Jackson’s 176 carries, as the Ravens’ 596 team carries were most in the NFL by a whopping 98 carries and they also ranked first in rushing yards (3,296), and YPC (5.53) by a wide margin, meaning that running backs were a big part of this offensive attack as well.

Lead back Mark Ingram rushed for 1,018 yards and 10 scores on 202 carries (5.04 YPC). Top backup Gus Edwards was very much involved as well with 133 carries for 711 yards and 2 touchdowns (5.35 YPC). Even #3 running back Justice Hill got into some action, with 58 carries for 225 yards and 2 scores (3.88 YPC), though it’s worth noting that 10 of those carries came in the meaningless season finale and that he was by far the least effective of the three backs. Jackson’s rushing ability develops makes life easier for the running backs because defenses are preoccupied with Jackson faking the handoff and running with it himself, but the running backs deserve plenty of credit as well.

The Ravens added further to their running back depth this off-season by using a 2nd round pick on Ohio State’s JK Dobbins. That may seem like a strange addition given that they were already pretty deep at the position, but Dobbins was a good value at #55 overall and, even as a rookie, he could be the Ravens’ 2nd most talented back overall behind Ingram, who is no spring chicken, now heading into his age 31 season. His addition is also likely a sign of how they feel about Hill long-term, as they don’t seem to be willing to make him the #2 back in this run heavy offense if there was ever an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

Ingram figures to remain the lead back, even though running backs do tend to drop off pretty quickly in their early 30s. A first round pick by the Saints in 2011, Ingram dealt with injury problems early in his career, missing 18 games in his first 5 seasons in the league combined, but he’s missed just 1 game due to injury over the past 4 seasons and in his career he’s averaged 929 yards and 8 touchdowns on 201 carries (4.61 YPC) per 16 games, including a 4.94 YPC average and 34 touchdowns on 775 carries over the past 4 seasons. He’s had the benefit of playing on some of the best offenses in the league over the past 4 seasons with the Saints and Ravens, but he’s played well in his own right, finishing in the top-22 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, including an 8th ranked finish in 2019. Even if he isn’t quite as good this season due to age related regression, he should still be a useful back.

With Ingram likely locked in as the lead back, that leaves JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards competing for #2 back work and it’s possible both backs see carries on an offense that gave 181 carries to backup running backs last season, even with Ingram only sidelined for one game. 133 of those carries went to Edwards, who has been a bit of a revelation as a runner in two seasons since the Ravens signed him as an undrafted rookie, rushing for 5.30 YPC on 270 carries in the two seasons combined. That’s the best in the NFL over that span among running backs with at least 200 carries, as is his 60% carry success rate.

Edwards has benefitted from playing almost all of his career with Jackson under center, but 62.4% of his rushing yards (3.30 YPC) have come after contact and he has finished in the top-14 among running backs on PFF in rushing grade in both seasons. He doesn’t do anything in the passing game (9 career catches), which is likely why the Ravens added Dobbins as a long-term every down back, but Edwards is a perfect fit as a powerful north to south runner (6-1 238) on an offense that spreads defenses out with probably the fastest sideline to sideline quarterback in NFL history. Ingram also is a great fit for this offense because he’s a power back as well at 5-9 215. 

Given how well Edwards fits this offense as a runner and how well he’s run over the past two seasons, it could be difficult for Dobbins to unseat him as 2nd to line to carries as a rookie, even if Dobbins does play more snaps than Edwards because he plays in passing situations. Realistically, it could be something close to a three man rotation at running back for carries, with Ingram and Dobbins splitting passing down work. Justice Hill, meanwhile, will need to show value on special teams to keep his job in arguably the deepest running back group in the NFL.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Along with being the run heaviest team in the league, another key feature of the Ravens’ offense last season was featuring tight ends in the passing game rather than wide receivers. The Ravens had a pair of tight ends in Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst who were mismatches in the passing game and could hold their own as blockers as well and they had Nick Boyle, a dominant blocking tight end who was also a reliable possession receiver in the passing game. These three tight ends allowed them to regularly use two and three tight end sets and to both run out of these sets and to fake play action off of them and try to hit a mismatched tight end or a speedy wide receiver that sneaks behind the defense.

The Ravens traded Hurst to the Falcons this off-season for a 2nd round pick (eventually used to select JK Dobbins), a good return for a former first round pick who had fallen to 3rd on the depth chart and played just 457 snaps last season, but it’s surprising the Ravens didn’t do anything to replace him, given how important the tight end position is to this offense. Without him, the Ravens won’t be able to run three tight end sets effectively like they did last season and, if either Andrews or Boyle was to get hurt, the Ravens wouldn’t be able to effectively run two tight end sets either.

As long as they are healthy, however, Andrews and Boyle are arguably the top tight end duo in the league, especially given how their skill sets complement each other. Andrews led the team with a 64/852/10 slash line and was even better than that suggested, as he did that on a run heavy team, despite not playing every down. He ranked 2nd among tight ends in both yards per route run (2.89) and in overall grade on Pro Football Focus, behind only George Kittle in both categories. That comes after averaging 2.01 yards per route run (4th among tight ends) and ranking 6th among tight ends on PFF as a 3rd round rookie in 2018. Only going into his age 25 season, Andrews looks likely to be one of the best tight ends in the league for years to come and he could easily exceed last year’s receiving totals with Hurst now gone.

Boyle, meanwhile, is basically a 6th offensive lineman as a blocker, as he’s consistently been of the best blocking tight ends in the league throughout his 5-year career, but, despite his speed limitations (5.00 40), he’s not a bad pass catcher either, catching 73.1% of his career targets, though for just 8.81 yards per catch. Still, his ability to be an underneath target off play action is very valuable for this team and it’s no surprise he’s coming off the best receiving year of his career (31/321/2) and a career best 12th ranked finish among tight ends on PFF in an offense that fits his skill set so well. He’ll still primarily be a blocker, so I wouldn’t expect him to drastically exceed last year’s receiving totals even without Hurst, but he should still be a very valuable part of this offense.

The Ravens need their two tight ends to stay healthy, otherwise their lack of depth at wide receiver would be exposed, as it was in their surprising post-season home loss to the Tennessee Titans. In that game, the Ravens uncharacteristically got down big early because of turnovers, forcing Lamar Jackson into a career high 59 pass attempts, and, with such an underwhelming receiving corps, Jackson was unable to get the Ravens back into it in an eventual 16 point loss. 

The Ravens were better in first down rate differential in their post-season loss than the final score suggested at -3.24%, losing big primarily because of a -3 turnover margin, which is almost an entirely unpredictable stat from week-to-week, but the point remains that their wide receivers were a problem last season, with just one wide receiver topping 339 receiving yards in the regular season. Not much changed this off-season, however, with the Ravens only replacing veteran Seth Roberts with 3rd round rookie Devin Duvarney. The Ravens will be counting on young players taking a step forward at the position in 2020, including Duvarney, who should compete for playing time in this group, despite being a raw rookie. 

Last year’s first round pick Marquise Brown and last year’s 3rd round pick Myles Boykin will also be in the mix for playing time, with Brown obviously having more upside, after averaging 1.81 yards per route run as a rookie (compared to 1.10 for Boykin), despite being in and out of the lineup with injuries. Brown might not be that durable at 5-9 179, but he has the upside to breakout as a legitimate #1 receiver in his 2nd season in the league and he’ll likely remain their top option regardless, after leading Ravens wideouts with a 46/584/7 slash line. Boykin, meanwhile, could take a step forward as well, but doesn’t have the same upside.

Willie Snead is the veteran of the group, going into his 7th season in the league, and he should be in the mix for a role as well, even if only by default. Primarily an underneath slot receiver, Snead is a bit of an odd fit with Jackson. Snead put up 69/984/3 and 72/895/4 slash lines in 2015 and 2016 and was on his way to a 80/796/2 slash line in 2018 before Flacco got hurt (with an injury plagued 2017 season in between), but Snead has caught just 48 passes for 542 yards and 5 touchdowns in 25 career games with Jackson. The Ravens extended him with a one-year, 6 million dollar extension during last season, so they seem to still value him despite his recent underwhelming production, but I wouldn’t expect him to produce significantly better in 2020. The Ravens will need #1 receiver Marquise Brown and talented tight end duo Mark Andrews/Nick Boyle to stay healthy to mask their lack of depth in the receiving corps.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

If there’s any one thing that could derail the Ravens’ chances of being a dominant offense again, it’s the retirement of right guard Marshal Yanda, who still finished last season as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked guard, despite being in his age 35 season. The Ravens used a 3rd round pick (Tyre Phillips) and a 4th round pick (Ben Bredeson) on guards and they have last year’s 4th round pick Ben Powers, who saw 30 snaps meaningless in the meaningless finale, but their most likely option is DJ Fluker, who has 88 career starts, but has never been more than a middling starter.

Center is also a position of uncertainty. Matt Skura started 11 games there last season and finished 16th out of 35 qualifying centers on PFF, but the 2016 undrafted free agent struggled in the first two seasons of his career in 2017 and 2018 and his 2019 season ended with a torn ACL that makes him questionable for the start of the 2020 season. Even if he’s ready for the start of the season, Skura is no guarantee to repeat his solid 2019 season. It’s also possible Skura could lose his starting job entirely to 2019 undrafted free agent Patrick Mekari, who flashed on 431 snaps as an injury replacement for Skura last season. Mekari could also potentially be in the mix to start at right guard, where he has a little bit of experience.

Along with Yanda, left tackle Ronnie Stanley had a dominant year on an offensive line that was a big part of the Ravens’ offensive success last season. Unlike Yanda, Stanley is fortunately still around and, only going into his age 26 season, he’s very much in the prime of his career and could even keep getting better. The 6th overall pick in 2016, Stanley has improved in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, finishing 29th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2016, 21st in 2017, 15th in 2018, and 3rd last season. He could easily remain one of the top few left tackles in the league for years to come and is immensely valuable protecting Lamar Jackson’s blindside.

Orlando Brown remains as the starter on the opposite side at right tackle. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Brown took over as the starter in week 7 of his rookie year and has provided them with above average play since then (26 starts), including a 28th ranked finish among offensive tackles on PFF in 2019. Still only going into his age 24 season, Brown could easily keep getting better over the next few seasons.

Finishing off this offensive line is left guard, where 2018 6th round pick Bradley Bozeman is going into his 2nd full season as the starter. Despite his relative inexperience (17 career starts), Bozeman doesn’t have a high ceiling, as he was an old rookie who is already going into his age 26 season and he’s athletically limited. He could remain a solid starter in 2020 and beyond, but it’s worth noting he’s a former late round pick who has made just 17 career starts at this point. This is still a talented offensive line, but the loss of Yanda will be very significant and they might not get the same level of play at center or left guard either.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

In 2018, the Ravens made the playoffs with a raw Lamar Jackson at quarterback on the strength of a defense that finished the season with the 2nd lowest first down rate allowed in the league at 32.65%, but they suffered significant losses from 2018 to 2019. They lost 5 of their top-12 in snaps played on defense in free agency, including key players like Za’Darius Smith, CJ Mosley, and Terrell Suggs, and they then lost another two of those top-12 (Tavon Young and Tony Jefferson) to season ending injuries. All of their losses seemed to take their toll on this defense, as they ranked just 24th in first down rate allowed through the first 6 weeks of the season at 37.95%, despite facing a relatively easy schedule that included games against the Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers, Browns, and Bengals, and Cardinals.

However, seemingly overnight, the Ravens became one of the best defenses in the league again. Despite the schedule getting tougher, the Ravens ranked 2nd in the NFL after week 6 in first down rate allowed after at 30.00%. Even after their slow start, they still managed to finish 5th in the NFL on the season in first down rate allowed at 32.86%. Along with their top ranked offense, the Ravens finished in the top-5 on both sides of the ball, the only team in the league to do so and just one of two teams (49ers) to finish in the top-10. 

Unsurprisingly, their +8.87% first down rate differential on the season was the best in the NFL by a wide margin, with the 49ers 2nd at +5.29%. The Ravens were especially dominant from week 9 to week 16, with a ridiculous +15.28% first down rate differential over that stretch. Of course, that didn’t matter when they lost at home in their first playoff game to the Titans in a game in which they didn’t give themselves a real chance because of a -3 turnover margin, but the fact remains that the Ravens were for most of the second half of last season close to a historically good team on both sides of the ball.

The primary reasons for significant defensive improvement are in the secondary and linebacking corps, so I’ll get into those later, but it’s worth mentioning upfront that the Ravens, much like they do on offense, run defensive schemes that are different than most of what the league runs. They run both 3-4 and 4-3 fronts in base packages, they frequently use 6 defensive backs on the field at the same time in sub packages, and, the most notable feature, they blitz more than any team in the league, sending a 5th rusher 45% of the time last season.

Despite that and despite playing with frequent leads, the Ravens actually didn’t sack the quarterback that often. They ranked just 21st in the NFL with 37 sacks and had just one player with more than 5 sacks on the season. They especially struggled from the interior, as they didn’t have a single interior defender who played more than 150 snaps who earned an average or better grade from Pro Football Focus for rushing the passer. The Ravens clearly viewed improving this area as a priority this off-season, allowing Michael Pierce, a big 6-0 340 pounder with a 5.2% pressure rate last season, to leave in free agency and trading rotational reserve Chris Wormley (6.4% pressure rate last season) to the Steelers, while adding a pair of more pass rush oriented types in Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe.

Campbell is the big prize, even though he was acquired for just a 6th round pick in a trade from the Jaguars. Campbell is going into his age 34 season and was owed 15 million for 2020, so he was acquired by the Ravens largely as a salary dump. It’s understandable the Jaguars would want to move on from Campbell given that they are rebuilding and shedding salary, but it’s a surprise that they couldn’t get more than a 6th round pick for him. Despite Campbell’s age, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, finishing 3rd among interior defenders on PFF last season, his 8th straight season in the top-19 at his position on PFF, including 4 straight seasons in the top-3. 

Over those past four seasons, he has totaled 39.5 sacks, 62 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate, while dominating against the run as well. He’s also a perfect fit for the Ravens’ defense because of his versatility. Not only does he have experience as a base end in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 defense, but he can also rush the passer effectively from the edge and from the interior. Even if he declines over the next couple seasons, he was well worth the 6th round pick and 2-year, 25 million dollar extension (20 million guaranteed) that the Ravens gave up to get him, given that the Ravens are in win now mode and can afford to add expensive talent, with their franchise quarterback still on an inexpensive rookie deal. He should remain an effective player, at the very least.

Wolfe, meanwhile, is kind of a lesser version of Campbell. He’s played defensive end in a base scheme 3-4 in Denver for the past five seasons, but he also spent some time earlier in his career in a 4-3 defense, playing both inside at defensive tackle and outside at defensive end. In 8 seasons total with the Broncos, Wolfe averaged 48.1 snaps per game and earned average or better grades from PFF in each of his final 6 seasons with the team. He was better against the run than as a pass rusher, but added a 7.4% pressure rate as well and mostly played every down. 

Wolfe is going into his age 30 season, but should have at least another couple solid seasons left in the tank, so he was a worthwhile addition on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal. He and Campbell give the Broncos a pair of versatile defensive linemen who can play every down and play both inside and outside, giving them more versatility and pass rush than they had last season. Campbell may play more outside than Wolfe and is obviously the better player overall, but both should have significant roles.

With Campbell and Wolfe coming in as interior rush options in sub packages, that should allow holdover Brandon Williams to play more of a base package role, taking over for Michael Pierce at nose tackle, after playing out of position somewhat last season. Williams has earned an above average grade as a run stuffer in all 7 seasons he’s been in the league, but he’s finished average or worse as a pass rusher in all 7 seasons and has just a 5.0% pressure rate for his career. That’s unsurprising, considering Williams is a big 6-1 335 pounder. 

Now going into his age 31 season, Williams is who he is at this point and could easily be on the decline, posting the lowest PFF of his career last year and finishing as PFF’s 54th ranked interior defender overall. He’ll be a better fit as primarily a base package player though and should see fewer than the 37.5 snaps per game he played last season in a better position group. He may still see some sub package snaps, especially when Campbell lines up outside, but he’s not someone you want playing significant sub package snaps and I wouldn’t expect him to do so.

Jihad Ward played 398 snaps as a reserve last season, but he struggled, as he has throughout his 4-year career, so he’s not guaranteed a significant role again. He has the ability to play both inside and outside in sub packages, but Campbell and Wolfe can both do so as well, and the Ravens used a 3rd round pick on Texas A&M defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who will likely compete to be the primary reserve on the interior, which could leave Ward without much of a role. This is a more talented, more versatile, and deeper group than last season.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Edge defender Matt Judon was the only Ravens defender to have a significant sack total last season, leading the team with 9.5. Not only that, but he added 25 hits and a 14.1% pressure rate as well. His pressure rate is inflated because of how often the Ravens blitzed and because he was frequently the blitzer, frequently lining up inside at off ball linebacker in sub packages and blitzing up the middle, but he also had to drop back into coverage on 19.9% of the pass snaps he played because of the different blitz schemes the Ravens ran, which limited his pass rush opportunities. Judon earned Pro Football Focus’ 18th highest grade among edge defenders in pass rush grade and was clearly much better as a pass rusher than in coverage, where he struggled mightily. 

With the Ravens adding interior rushers that will help them get to the quarterback with four more easily and with the Ravens adding better coverage off ball linebackers (more on that later), it’s very possible the Ravens blitz less often this season and that Judon will play more of a traditional edge defender role and not move around the formation and drop into coverage as often, which should be a better role, even if fewer blitzes reduces his overall pressure rate. 

Judon is a one-year wonder in terms of getting to the quarterback at the rate he did last season, but he’s been at least a solid starter for 3 seasons in a row and he has a career 12.2% pressure rate in 4 years in the league. Going into his age 28 season, Judon should be in his prime for at least another couple seasons, though he’s yet to agree to a long-term extension after being franchise tagged as a free agent this off-season.

Tyus Bowser was essentially Judon’s backup last season, playing 389 snaps total and dropping into coverage on 26.5% of his pass snaps. Second on the team with 5 sacks, Bowser also had a 11.3% pressure rate and he wasn’t bad in coverage either, as the 6-3 242 pounder is a much more natural coverage athlete than the 6-4 264 Judon. Bowser hasn’t played much in 3 seasons in the league (715 snaps total) and snaps will be harder to come by in a deeper position group, but he’s a former 2nd round pick who is going into his age 25 season and his versatility should earn him at least a rotational role.

At the edge defender spot opposite Judon, veteran Pernell McPhee was the starter for the first 7 games of the season, but he tore his triceps and missed the rest of the season, leaving 3rd round rookie Jaylon Ferguson to start the rest of the way, after he played just 82 snaps in the first 6 weeks of the season. Ferguson didn’t fare all that well, but he was just a 3rd round rookie, so he could still develop into a capable starter long-term. His role is uncertain going into this season, however, as not only can Campbell and Wolfe play on the edge, but McPhee is also returning from injury.

McPhee is only going into his age 32 season and was once one of the most efficient pass rushers in the league, posting a 18.0% pressure rate in 2014 and 2015 combined, but his career has been completely derailed by injury, as he hasn’t played more than 385 snaps in a season since 2015 and has missed 22 games total over the past 4 seasons combined. Last season, he played 41.3 snaps per game in the 6 games he finished without getting hurt, but then he got injured in week 7 and missed the rest of the season.

McPhee wasn’t particularly effective last season before the injury either (8.0% pressure rate and a middling grade from PFF) and now, another year older, it would be a surprise if he was able to bounce back to anything close to his prime form, even if he were to stay healthy. His versatility to play inside and outside is valuable, but he’s unlikely to have a significant impact. With Campbell and Wolfe able to play on the edge in addition to on the interior, the Ravens have improved their depth at this position this off-season and they have a pair of young players in Bowser and Ferguson who could take a step forward as well.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, the Ravens did a good job of getting better coverage off ball linebackers this season, which, along with their improved pass rush, will likely lead to them blitzing not quite as much and should lead to them playing players out of position less frequently. The Ravens’ off ball linebackers were not bad last season and in fact the mid-season additions of LJ Fort and Josh Bynes actually coincided directly with their defensive turnaround, though there were other factors. 

The big problem was that, while Fort and Bynes both earned above average grades against the run from Pro Football Focus, they played just 391 snaps and 254 snaps respectively and struggled in coverage and that no Ravens off ball linebacker played more than 473 snaps (Patrick Onwausor). The Ravens compensated for this by playing edge defenders like Judon and Bowser out of position in sub packages or using 3 safeties and dropping strong safety Chuck Clark near the line of scrimmage as a coverage linebacker, but their moves this off-season suggest they want to be a little more traditional in 2020.

LJ Fort still remains, but Josh Bynes and Patrick Onwausor are gone and, while Bynes was PFF’s 12th ranked off ball linebacker against the run last season, Onwausor ranked 82nd in overall grade out of 100 qualifying off ball linebackers and the Ravens did a good job adding potential three down off ball linebackers through the draft. At 28 overall they got a steal with arguably the top off ball linebacker in the draft in Patrick Queen, who could play almost every snap every as a rookie and compete for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and then they got another potential three down talent in the 3rd round in Malik Harrison. 

Harrison is rawer and not as much of a sure thing, but he still figures to compete for playing time immediately next to Queen. LJ Fort could remain an option in base packages and he’s earned an above average grade from PFF for his run stopping ability in back-to-back seasons, although he’s going into his age 30 season and has never played more than 305 snaps in a season. The Ravens also have enough depth in the secondary that they could still frequently play with 3 safeties in sub packages, but, unlike last season, they have enough depth at linebacker that it won’t be totally necessary to play a 3rd safety in sub packages.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The single biggest reason for the Ravens defensive improvement last season was the secondary. At cornerback, the Ravens lost slot cornerback Tavon Young for the season with injury before the year began and then lost cornerback Jimmy Smith indefinitely week 1, but then they traded for Marcus Peters from the Rams before week 7 and got Smith back healthy for week 9. Peters and Smith playing outside allowed them to move Marlon Humphrey to the slot in sub packages, giving the Ravens a talented trio of cornerbacks, and it allowed 4th cornerback Brandon Carr to play more safety down the stretch, which allowed them to drop safety Chuck Clark down to linebacker in sub packages, to compensate for their lack of depth at the position. 

Carr was let go this off-season, owed 6 million non-guaranteed in his age 34 season in 2020, while Tavon Young returns from injury, so the Ravens will have to re-shuffle their cornerbacks a little bit, but it’s still a very strong group. Young’s best position is on the slot, so he figures to play there primarily, moving Humphrey outside every down outside Peters. That would leave the aging Jimmy Smith (age 32 season) as the 4th cornerback and a potential part-time safety.

Humphrey wasn’t bad on the slot and made not just his first career Pro Bowl, but also the All-Pro team last season, but he actually earned the lowest grade of his 3-year career from Pro Football Focus. He still ranked 33rd among cornerbacks overall, but he ranked 16th in 2018 and he is probably a more natural fit outside, even if he can play inside if needed in a pinch. The former first round pick still has a huge upside, only going into his age 24 season, and, now going into his 4th season in the league, back in a more natural spot outside, he could easily have the highest ranked season of his career.

Marcus Peters was the single biggest reason for their defensive turnaround, as he was PFF’s 5th ranked cornerback from his arrival in week 7 and beyond and finished as their 4th ranked cornerback overall. It’s hard to believe the Ravens acquired Peters for a mere fifth round pick, but he was going into the final year of his deal with the Rams, who needed to clear cap space for the recently acquired Jalen Ramsey, and Peters has been inconsistent enough in the past that it’s understandable why the Rams would want to go with Ramsey instead. Peters also finished 16th among cornerbacks in 2016 and 14th in 2017, but on the flip side of that he finished 81st in 2015 and 98th in 2018. His history of inconsistency didn’t scare the Ravens off from giving him a 3-year, 42 million dollar extension and that’s not a bad value for him, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be the quite same player this season, especially with 21 million guaranteed in his pocket.

Tavon Young should be locked in on the slot, but his injury history is pretty concerning, as he’s now missed 2 of 4 full seasons. A 4th round pick in 2016, Young burst onto the season as a rookie, finishing as PFF’s 17th ranked cornerback on 833 snaps, but then he missed all of 2017 with a torn ACL and didn’t seem to be quite the same in 2018, earning a middling grade from PFF. That didn’t stop the Ravens from giving him a 3-year, 25.8 million dollar extension that made him one of the highest paid slot cornerbacks in the league last off-season and it was reasonable to assume he’d bounce back in 2019, another year removed from the torn ACL, but then he missed all of 2019 with a neck injury. Still only going into his age 26 season, Young has some bounce back potential, but it’s worth noting his last high level season was 4 years ago.

Jimmy Smith is the odd man out at cornerback for now, but he’s expected to see some action at safety. Smith has rarely played safety in his 9-year career (83 starts, all at cornerback), but he has good size at 6-2 210 and would hardly be the first cornerback to make a successful late career switch to safety. Smith has had a lot of injuries over the years (20 games missed over the past 4 seasons) and hasn’t been the same player in recent years, but he was still a capable starter in 9 games last season and he’s probably overqualified as a 6th defensive back, which is what he’ll essentially be. Smith might not have a significant role to start the season, but he figures see significant playing time at one point or another, even if it’s only as an injury replacement.

Along with the positive changes at cornerback mid-season, the Ravens also got a positive change at safety when starting safety Tony Jefferson tore his ACL week 5. Jefferson was a solid starter in 2018, so may seem weird that his absence would be a benefit, but Jefferson was off to a terrible start in 2019, ranking 76th out of 89 qualifying safeties on PFF at the time of his injury, and his replacement Chuck Clark wound up being better than Jefferson was even in 2018, as Clark finished 28th among safeties on PFF in 2019. 

Clark’s impressive play led to the Ravens cutting Jefferson ahead of a non-guaranteed 7 million dollar salary this off-season and locking up Clark long-term on a 3-year, 15.3 million dollar extension. A 6th round pick in 2017, Clark is a one-year wonder who played just 315 mediocre snaps in his first 2 seasons combined in 2017 and 2018, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has plenty of upside going forward. He’s also particularly valuable because of his ability to play both safety and linebacker and to both stop the run in the box and to cover backs and tight ends one-on-one. He could prove to be a real value signing if he continues to develop.

With Clark working as a box safety, Earl Thomas is the primary deep safety, a role he spent 9 seasons in with the Seahawks (125 starts), prior to signing with the Ravens last off-season. In his first season in Baltimore, Thomas had his lowest rated season on PFF since 2012, which is slightly concerning as he now heads into his age 31 season, but he still finished 14th after a stretch of 4 out of 5 seasons in the top-5, so even a declining Earl Thomas is still one of the better safeties in the league. This is a deep and talented secondary once again, arguably even deeper, with Tavon Young returning from injury.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Ravens were one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball last season and entered the post-season as the most complete team in the league. It all fell apart in a divisional round home loss to the Titans by 16, but that game was much closer than the final score suggested, as the game entirely swung on a -3 turnover margin by the Ravens and a highly uncharacteristic 0 for 4 on 4th down. The Ravens have made some changes into 2020, but still look like one of the top few teams in the league going into the season. No one should be surprised if they claim the AFC’s top seed again and finish it off with a Super Bowl this time around, though I’m not sure I’d consider them the outright favorite. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Ravens were dealt a big blow when they had to release safety Earl Thomas following an altercation with a teammate. He will be replaced by unproven 2018 6th round pick DeShon Elliott. The Ravens should still be one of the top contenders in the AFC, but safety is now an obvious hole for them and they can’t afford to lose more depth in the secondary.

Projection: 12-4 (1st in AFC North)

Cincinnati Bengals 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

Going into the 2019 season, few had high expectations for the Bengals, but not many expected them to be terrible either, as they had never won fewer than 6 games in Andy Dalton’s 8 seasons as a starter. Instead, the Bengals finished with the worst record in the NFL at 2-14 and received the #1 overall pick as a result. The Bengals picked a good year to be bad as this draft class not only contained Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, who had a sensational season in 2018 and was seen as the consensus #1 pick going in 2019, but also LSU’s Joe Burrow, who took over as the consensus #1 overall pick following an outstanding senior season and an injury to Tagovailoa.

Burrow not only won the Heisman and the National Championship with an undefeated 15-0 team, but he also broke the NCAA’s single season record for passing touchdowns and the SEC’s single season record for passing yards and he has all the tools to translate to the next level. That being said, it’s worth noting he is a bit of a one-year wonder. Unlike Tagovailoa, who had multiple high level years as a starter in the SEC, Burrow was up and down in his junior year in 2018 and was seen by most as a late round pick by this point last year. Burrow is also older than Tagovailoa (age 24 as a rookie vs. age 22) and might not have as high of a ceiling overall. That being said, considering Tagovailoa’s medical situation, it’s hard to fault the Bengals for taking Burrow, although time will tell if that proves to be the correct decision.

Even though the Bengals had the worst record in the league last season, you can definitely argue they weren’t terrible, as a lot of the problem was bad luck, or good luck depending on how you view getting the #1 pick and adding Burrow. Of their 14 losses, 8 were decided by 8 points or fewer, while both of their wins came by 10 points or more, even though they had the 3rd worst turnover margin in the league at -14. In terms of first down rate differential, the Bengals ranked 24th at -3.47%, certainly not good, but certainly not at the worst in the league either.

The Bengals likely would have finished even higher had they not benched Dalton for 4th round rookie Ryan Finley for 3 weeks, as Finley was horrendous in his 3 starts, completing 47.1% of his passes for an average of 5.45 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The Bengals had a pathetic 28.18% first down rate in Finley’s 3 starts, as opposed to 33.18% in Dalton’s 13 starts. It was understandable that the Bengals would want to go to Finley though, as they wanted to give the rookie a shot in a lost season, and the Bengals arguably would not have ended up with the #1 pick had they not started Finley for a stretch, as, even with Finley starting, two of those losses came by 7 points or fewer.

As soon as Dalton took back the starting job for the final 5 weeks of the season, the Bengals got their first win of the season and finished with a 2-3 stretch in which they actually had a positive first down rate differential at +1.81%, though an easy schedule during that stretch partially was a factor. Still, it’s good to see the Bengals end the season on a positive note, especially since they didn’t cost themselves draft position in the process, and it’s safe to say that Burrow is walking into a better situation than most #1 overall picks do in terms of existing talent on the roster, as they were far from the worst team in the league last season.

Burrow’s entrance officially closed the book on the Andy Dalton era, as Dalton was released ahead of a 17.7 million dollar non-guaranteed salary and ultimately signed with the Cowboys as a backup this off-season. During Dalton’s 9 seasons as the starter (133 starts), the Bengals were consistently respectable on the field until the end, but never won a playoff game. In his final season, he completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions while earning Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked quarterback grade out of 39 qualifiers, making it arguably the worst season of his career. Given that, Burrow won’t have a steep bar to pass, even as a rookie, though he’ll certainly have some rookie growing pains. With only Finley behind him on the depth chart as a mediocre backup, this is completely Burrow’s job before he’s thrown his first pass.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The way the Bengals finished last season is even more impressive because of all the injuries they suffered, particularly on offense, where they had the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season. It wasn’t just that they lost a lot of players, but they also lost some of their most important players, most especially #1 wide receiver AJ Green, who missed the entire season with an ankle injury. Missing his long-time top receiver, it’s not a surprise Dalton had arguably the worst season of his career in 2019.

Green wanted to leave Cincinnati in free agency this off-season, to pursue a significant salary guarantee with a contender, with time running out on his career, going into his age 32 season and coming off of a significant injury. Green also missed 6 games in 2016 and 7 games in 2018, meaning he’s been limited to 35 games over the past 4 seasons, so he’s hardly a sure thing at his age, but the Bengals still wouldn’t let him leave, keeping around for at least another year on the franchise tag, in order to ease Burrow’s transition into the NFL.

Green can’t be happy about how the situation has turned out, especially with the Bengals in no hurry to give him the long-term guarantees he wants, but his only other option is to threaten to sit out the season to force a trade, which would be a tough move for him to pull off, given that he already missed all of last season and would undoubtedly hurt himself financially sitting out another year at his age. Green has averaged a 87/1284/9 slash line per 16 games in his career, including 85/1251/8 per 16 games over his recent injury plagued seasons, so he could easily have another couple solid seasons left in the tank at the least even if he’s not in his prime form, but he’s a big question mark at this point and his best days are likely behind him.

Fortunately, the Bengals are pretty deep in the receiving corps. Tyler Boyd and John Ross both earned above average grades on Pro Football Focus in Green’s absence last season, though Ross was limited to 8 games by injury, while Auden Tate and Alex Erickson were about average on 647 snaps and 615 snaps respectively. They got even deeper this off-season when they used the 33rd overall pick on Clemson wide receiver Tee Higgins. Even in a deep group with Green and Ross returning, Higgins figures to compete for a role in 3-wide receiver sets immediately.

Tyler Boyd was the #1 receiver last year with Green out, leading the team with a 90/1046/5 slash line and he’ll be more of a 1b to Green’s 1a than a true #2 receiver in 2020. That was the case the last time Green played in 2018, when Boyd finished with a 76/1028/7 slash line. Boyd seems to produce better with Green in the lineup, on pace for a 98/1240/10 slash line through 16 games in 2018 before Green got hurt, though I wouldn’t expect him to keep up that pace in 2020 on a passing offense with more options. Still, Boyd is a talented secondary passing option who can be a #1 for stretches. The 2016 2nd round pick’s career got off to a shaky start, but after back-to-back 1000+ yard years, he’s still only in his age 26 season. He still has several years left in his prime and looks like the long-term #1 whenever Green eventually is not around.

Ross was on pace for a 1000+ yard season last year if he had stayed healthy all season, with a 28/506/3 slash line in 8 games, but he wasn’t particularly consistent, as he topped 45 receiving yards in a game just three times. A bust as the 9th overall pick in 2017, Ross barely contributed in his first 2 seasons in the league (0.56 yards per route run on 377 routes), largely due to other injuries, and he has just 4 games with more than 45 receiving yards for his entire career. 

The Bengals seem to be underwhelmed, despite his flashes of brilliance, not only adding Higgins, but declining Ross’ 5th year option for 2021, which would have guaranteed him 15.68 million for injury, a big risk considering his inability to stay healthy thus far. Ross still has upside, not even 25 until November, and he could earn himself a lot of money with a big year in what is now a contract year, but he could also easily get hurt again or find himself on the bench behind Higgins by season’s end. Higgins’ arrival also likely means that Auden Tate and Alex Erickson will be stuck in reserve roles, despite faring alright in the first significant action of their careers in 2019. Tate, a 2018 7th round pick, in particular seems to have good long-term potential, even if he doesn’t see the field much this season.

The Bengals lost long-time tight end Tyler Eifert in free agency this off-season, as he took a 2-year, 9.5 million dollar deal in Jacksonville. Eifert was a former first round pick and had some moments of being among the top tight ends in the league earlier in his career, but he was limited to 43 games due to injury from 2013-2018 and, though he played in all 16 games for the first time in 2019, all of those injuries seemed to have taken their toll on him, as he was nothing more than a snap eater and had an underwhelming 43/436/3 slash line.

That line still led all Bengals tight ends, however, and the Bengals didn’t do anything to replace him. Instead, they’ll likely be expecting more out of Drew Sample, who played just 108 snaps and caught just 5 passes as a 2nd round rookie last year. Sample is primarily a blocking tight end, however, managing just 46 catches in his entire collegiate career. He may have some untapped upside as a receiver, but I wouldn’t expect him to ever be a big factor in the passing game, so it’s strange the Bengals drafted him where they did. 

Veteran CJ Uzomah will likely be the primary pass catching tight end. He had a decent 43/439/3 slash line in 2018, but was limited to 27/242/2 in 2019. Even his meager production in 2019 was the 2nd best year of his career and he’s earned mediocre grades from PFF throughout his career as well. He’ll have a bigger pass game role in 2020 with Eifert gone, but I don’t expect the tight end position to be used that much in this offense, given that they are way deeper at wide receiver.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bengals also had injury problems on the offensive line, which made things even worse for a group that wasn’t very good to begin with. First round pick Jonah Williams, who was expected to start at one of the two tackle spots, got hurt early in the off-season and missed the whole season. Cordy Glenn, who became locked in at left tackle when Williams got hurt, was limited to 291 snaps in 6 games, unsurprisingly coinciding with the Bengals’ best offensive stretch of the year at the end of the season. Aside from Glenn, the other 9 offensive linemen who played a snap for the Bengals all earned a below average grade from Pro Football Focus.

Glenn was let go this off-season, owed 9.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2020, after several injury plagued years, and the Bengals didn’t make any significant additions upfront either, so, while they get Jonah Williams back, this offensive line should still have a lot of problems this season. Williams himself is a question mark as well, expected to line up on the blindside at left tackle, despite having never played a snap in the NFL. Even if he has significant growing pains, he could be the Bengals’ best offensive lineman by default.

Center Trey Hopkins was probably their 2nd best offensive lineman, even though he finished just 24th out of 35 qualifying centers on PFF. Hopkins was given a 3-year, 20.4 million dollar extension last season, suggesting they view him as the starter long-term. Hopkins has just 37 career starts in 6 seasons in the league, with 16 of those coming last season, and he has been pretty underwhelming overall, but he should be locked in to his starting job going into 2020.

Billy Price was drafted 21st overall in 2018 to be the Bengals’ starting center long-term, but he was limited to 558 snaps by injury as a rookie, finished 35th out of 39 qualifying centers on PFF, and eventually lost his starting job to his former backup Hopkins after an injury plagued off-season last off-season. Price played both center and guard in college and ended up seeing 586 snaps at guard in 2019, but he fared even worse there than he did at center, finishing 86th out of 89 qualifying guards on PFF. Now going into his 3rd season in the league, Price may still have some untapped potential, but, with Hopkins locked in at center, he’ll have to compete for one of the starting jobs at guard and may find himself on the bench, at least to begin the season.

At left guard, Price’s primary competition will be 2019 4th round pick Michael Jordan. As a rookie last season, Jordan didn’t fare much better than Price did, finishing 84th out of 89 qualifying guards, but he got better as the season went on and the Bengals still like his long-term upside, still only going into his age 22 season. He’s not a lock to ever develop into a consistent starter and even if he does it might not be in 2020, but it would be hard for him to be worse than he and Price were at left guard last season.

At right guard, veteran Xavier Su’a-Filo is Price’s primary competition and I would guess Price’s best shot to get into the starting lineup would be at right guard, where veteran John Miller was underwhelming as the primary starter last season (13 games) and is no longer on the team. Su’a-Filo signed with the Bengals for 9 million over 3 years this off-season, more in line with being a backup than a starter, and, while he’s a former 2nd round pick (2014) who made 31 starts for the Texans from 2016-2017, he was pretty underwhelming in those starts and has been a reserve and spot starter in his other 4 seasons in the league (22 starts total). Regardless of who ends up starting, guard figures to be a significant position of weakness again in 2020.

Right tackle Bobby Hart is also locked into a starting job, even though he’s not particularly good either. A 7th round pick in 2015, Hart has somehow made 53 career starts, including all 16 last season, but he’s finished below average on PFF in all 4 seasons as a starter, including 70th out of 89 qualifiers in 2019. Without any real competition for his job, Hart is locked in as a starter on what should be among the worst offensive lines in the league again this season.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

Despite poor blocking in front of him, lead back Joe Mixon had a solid season, rushing for 1,137 yards and 5 touchdowns on 278 carries (4.09 YPC). Mixon got most of those yards himself, rushing for 3.15 yards per carry after contact and the 6th most rushing yards after contact in the league with 877. That is more or less on par with how he’s fared in 3 seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2017. Despite routinely underwhelming blocking in front of him, he’s rushed for 2,934 yards and 20 touchdowns on 692 carries (4.24 YPC) in his career, with 2.84 YPC coming after first contact. Overall, he’s been a top-17 running back on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons and, still only going into his age 24 season, he could keep getting better in 2020.

The one area where Mixon isn’t particularly useful is in the passing game, with 108 catches in 44 career games with an average of just 6.49 yards per target. It’s not that he’s a bad pass catcher, but given that he gets most of the Bengals’ carries and that he needs rest from time-to-time, Mixon frequently comes off the field in passing situations for veteran back Giovani Bernard. Bernard has 295 catches in 99 career games in 7 seasons in the league and has matched the 108 catches that Mixon has over the past three seasons. 

In the past, Bernard has been a useful pace of change back as well, averaging 4.19 YPC over his first 4 seasons, but he’s seen his carries per game drop from 10.6 to 4.9 since the addition of Mixon 3 years ago and he averaged a career worst 3.21 YPC on a career low 53 carries last season. Bernard may have a little left in the tank in his age 29 season, but he shouldn’t see more than a few carries and a few check downs per game. This is Mixon’s backfield, as he’s been consistently one of the better backs in his three years in the league, despite his young age.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While the Bengals’ offense struggled last season, their defense was actually pretty solid overall, finishing 18th in first down rate allowed at 35.78%. It was really a tale of two seasons though, as they ranked 7th with a 32.03% first down rate allowed in the final 7 weeks of the season, after ranking 27th at 38.78% first down rate allowed through week 10. The biggest difference was the play of edge defender Carlos Dunlap. 

Dunlap got off to an underwhelming start in his first 5 games, was limited to 68 snaps due to injury in the next 4 games, but then finished the season on a tear, earning Pro Football Focus’ #1 edge defender grade in the final 7 games of the season. Over that stretch, he had 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a ridiculous 16.2% pressure rate, while also earning PFF’s highest run defense grade by an edge defender to boot. Despite his slow start, Dunlap still finished as PFF’s 4th ranked edge defender on the season thanks to his late season tear, and he finished with a 13.2% pressure rate and the position’s 2nd highest grade against the run.

Playing at a high level is nothing new for Dunlap, as he’s finished in the top-35 among edge defenders in 9 straight seasons on PFF. Over that stretch, he has totalled 72 sacks, 146 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, while consistently playing above average against the run. His age is becoming a concern, going into his age 31 season, so he might not repeat one of the better years of his career again in 2020, but he has shown few signs of slowing down and he’s also been remarkably durable throughout his career. The 739 snaps he was “limited” to by injury last season still ranked 28th in the NFL among edge defenders, even though they were Dunlap’s fewest in a season since 2012. Last season was also the first time he had missed a game since 2012. Dunlap may slow down a little bit in 2020, but he should remain one of the better all-around edge defenders in the league, especially if he’s healthy all season.

With Dunlap a little banged up early in the season, fellow starting edge defender Sam Hubbard actually led Bengals edge defenders in snaps last season with 852. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Hubbard was solid on 508 rookie year snaps and carried that over to a larger role last season. He was mostly a snap eater, but he held up against the run, added 8.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate, and still has room to get better, only going into his age 24 season. A breakout 3rd season in the league is not out of the question and he should remain at least a solid starter.

The Bengals’ depth was solid at the position too. Fourth defensive end Arthur Brown was pretty underwhelming in the first action of the 2018 5th round pick’s career last season, but he barely had a role, playing just 241 snaps, 110 of which came in the two games Dunlap missed, and he could be a little better in 2020. On top of that, third defensive end Carl Lawson is an effective situational edge rusher, even if he has a lot of trouble against the run. 

A 4th round pick in 2017, Lawson has totalled 14.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 3 seasons in the league in a part-time role (33.1 snaps per game). A torn ACL ended his 2018 season after 7 games and he didn’t seem to be quite the same player while limited to 12 games in 2019, but, only going into his age 25 season, Lawson definitely has bounce back potential, now another year removed from the injury. He, Dunlap, and Hubbard should be able to effectively rush the passer consistently and Dunlap and Hubbard are good run stuffers in base packages as well.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Bengals have been notorious in recent years for not spending significant money on outside free agents, opting instead to build through the draft and use their cap space to re-sign their own guys. That can be a viable strategy if you are consistently nailing your drafts and need the financial flexibility to keep the guys you’ve developed, but the Bengals have not drafted particularly well in recent years and they consistently have barely spent over the league minimum, suggesting their decision to sit out free agency was more financial than an actual team building strategy.

That changed this off-season, as the Bengals handed out four significant contracts to outside free agents, all on the defensive side of the ball. The best addition was ex-Texans nose tackle DJ Reader, who comes over on a 4-year, 53 million dollar deal. Reader is primarily a big run stuffer at 6-3 347, but has rare three down ability for his size, with a 8.4% pressure rate for his career and an average of 40.7 snaps per game over the past 2 seasons. 

Reader is also still only going into his age 26 season and is coming off of the best season of his career, excelling against the run, totalling 2.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, and finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked interior defender overall. Reader might not be quite as good in 2020, but he has plenty of years of his prime yet and could remain one of the better players at his position for the duration of his 4-year deal. He was a smart addition for a team that needed to replace free agent departure Andrew Billings, who gave them solid play on 657 snaps last season. Reader should play a similar role and be an upgrade.

He’ll pair with long-time Bengal Geno Atkins to make one of the best defensive tackle duos in the NFL. Along with Dunlap, Atkins has played at a high level on this line for years, finishing in the top-5 among interior defenders on PFF in 5 of his 9 years as a starter (133 starts). His age is becoming a concern, going into his age 32 season, possibly part of why they made the big investment in Reader, and he’s finished “just” 22nd and 21st among interior defenders over the past 2 seasons respectively, but he should remain at least an above average starter for another couple seasons.

Josh Tupou was the top reserve defensive tackle last season with 465 snaps, but he’ll likely have to compete for that role with Ryan Glasgow, who returns after being limited to 118 snaps in 5 games by a thigh injury and a torn ACL. Glasgow also tore that same ACL in 2018, limiting him to 92 snaps in 3 games, so he’s a big question mark and will have to earn his way back into the rotation. A 4th round pick in 2017, Glasgow has flashed against the run in limited action thus far in his career (622 snaps), but he’s still highly unproven and coming off back-to-back serious injuries. Tupou, a 2017 undrafted free agent, flashed against the run in the first significant action of his career last season and earned an above average grade overall, so Glasgow isn’t a lock to get his job back even if healthy and may have to settle for deep reserve snaps. Glasgow and Tupou are solid depth behind one of the best defensive tackle duos in the NFL.

Grade: A

Linebackers

While the Bengals had a solid defensive line last season, one that gets significantly better with the addition of Reader, their linebackers were arguably the worst in the league. With Nick Vigil (985 snaps) and Preston Brown (410 snaps) hitting free agency this off-season, the Bengals had a great opportunity to upgrade this group, but they didn’t do much of significance, signing veteran journeyman Josh Bynes and using a 3rd round (Logan Wilson), a 4th round, (Akeem Davis-Gaither), and a 7th round pick Markus Bailey on linebackers. Bailey is unlikely to see a significant defensive role as a rookie, but the other three will compete for roles with holdovers Germaine Pratt and Jordan Evans.

Pratt probably has the best shot to secure a role and could play every down. He wasn’t particularly good on 437 rookie year snaps, finishing 77th out of 100 qualifying off ball linebackers on Pro Football Focus, but he could be better in his 2nd season in the league and the Bengals are still high on his upside, so it’s hard to see him not being a significant contributor in a thin position group. Evans, meanwhile, was limited to 76 snaps last season and struggled mightily in the first 2 seasons of his career in 2017 and 2018 on a combined 822 snaps. A former 6th round pick, he’s far from a guarantee to ever develop into a capable starter, but he’ll still get a shot in this group.

Bynes may be a journeyman, now changing teams with the 4th time in 10 seasons in the league, and he only signed on a one-year, 1.65 million dollar deal, but he could prove to be a steal if he plays like he has in the past two seasons. In the first 7 seasons of his career, Bynes was primarily a special teamer and backup, making 29 total starts and exceeding 456 snaps in a season just once, but he always showed well against the run and he had a bit of a late breakout year in 2018 with the Cardinals after developing some coverage abilities as well, finishing as PFF’s 14th ranked off ball linebacker overall on 726 snaps. 

That wasn’t enough to land him a starting job going into the 2019 season, but the Ravens signed him as a situational run stuffer and he excelled in that role, finishing as PFF’s 9th ranked off ball linebacker overall on 391 snaps. His arrival also coincided with a drastic improvement in play on defense by the Ravens, though there were other reasons for the improvement beyond Bynes’ addition. Now going into his age 31 season, Bynes might not be able to keep this level of play up, but he could easily be a valuable base package player, though he’d likely be overmatched in an every down role. With mid round rookies legitimately competing for roles, this is a very underwhelming group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The biggest investments the Bengals made this off-season were all in the secondary, signing ex-Vikings cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander to deals worth 42 million over 3 years and 4 million over 1 year respectively and signing ex-Saint Vonn Bell to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal. Waynes replaces starting outside cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, while Alexander replaces slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard. Kirkpatrick and Dennard were limited to 334 snaps and 495 snaps respectively last season due to injury, forcing underwhelming backup BW Webb into 834 snaps. This off-season, the Bengals have cleaned house, including Webb, and will start Waynes and Alexander in 3 cornerback sets with William Jackson.

Jackson had injury problems of his own last season, only missing the final 2 games of the season, but playing through a shoulder injury all season that clearly affected his play. A first round pick in 2016, Jackson missed his whole rookie year with a torn pectoral, but finished in the top-28 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2017 and 2018, allowing 47.3% completion over that stretch. In 2019, he fell all the way to 111st out of 135 qualifiers and allowed 60.9% completion on the season. Injuries have consistently been a problem throughout his career, and, since he was an older rookie, he’s already going into his age 28 season, so he’ll have a shorter prime than most, but he has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy in 2020.

Outside opposite Jackson, Waynes will start, as he did 44 times over the past 3 seasons with the Vikings. A first round pick in 2015, Waynes didn’t quite live up to expectations, barely playing in his first 2 seasons (776 snaps) and then putting up consistently middling grades in 3 seasons as a starter. The Bengals are paying him like he’s more than that, giving him the 7th highest annual salary of any cornerback in football, but, already going into his age 28 season, he’s unlikely to get much better at this point. He should remain a capable starter, but I wouldn’t expect more.

Alexander also comes over from the Vikings, where he was also a high pick, going 54th overall in 2016. Like Waynes, Alexander hardly played early in his career, playing 391 snaps total in 2016 and 2017, but he’s played 564 snaps and 534 snaps over the past 2 seasons as the Vikings’ primary slot receiver and he has earned above average grades from PFF in both seasons. Alexander will likely be a pure slot cornerback in Cincinnati, but he has the ability to play outside in a pinch if needed as well.

At safety, Vonn Bell is likely a replacement for incumbent Shawn Williams. Williams has started 57 games over the past 4 seasons and was generally a solid starter, but he fell to 89th out of 100 qualifying safeties on PFF last season, prompting the Bengals to search for an upgrade in free agency this off-season. Bell is definitely an upgrade against the run, as he’s finished in the top-5 among safeties on PFF in run stopping grade in 3 of his 4 seasons in the league (45 career starts), but he’s also consistently struggled in coverage. Bell is only going into his age 26 season and the former 2nd round pick may still have some untapped potential in coverage, but he’s definitely a box safety first and foremost, which is why he’s likely replacing Williams rather than the other incumbent starter Jessie Bates, who is a deep coverage safety.

Bates finished just 76th out of 100 qualifying safeties on PFF last season, but the 2018 2nd round pick was much better as a rookie (12th among safeties) and most of his issues last season were against the run, as he held up in deep coverage, but missed a league leading 23 tackles. As a rookie, he still wasn’t great against the run, but he only missed a modest 14 tackles and allowed just a 59.9 QB rating into his coverage, allowing 19 completions for 2 touchdowns and picking off 3 passes with another 4 broken up. Bates also got a lot better as his 2019 season went on, with PFF’s 19th highest grade among safeties in week 10 and later, part of why this defense turned around down the stretch. Only going into his age 23 season, Bates still has a ton of long-term upside and could easily have a strong third season in the league.

With BW Webb no longer on the team, after ranking 102nd out of 135 qualifying cornerbacks on 834 snaps as an injury replacement last season, third year cornerback Darius Phillips is expected to take over as the fourth corner. A 5th round selection in 2018, Phillips has primarily played on special teams thus far in his career and he was underwhelming on 232 rookie year snaps, but he showed a lot more promise on 108 snaps last season. Despite his limited playing time, he intercepted 4 passes, including 2 in the season finale against the Browns, and broke up another 3 passes. 

Phillips is still very inexperienced and he’s a projection to a larger role, but he has a lot of upside from the #4 cornerback spot and it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if the Bengals had to turn to him in case of an injury to one of their top guys. The Bengals also have good depth at safety with Shawn Williams as the 3rd safety. They could frequently use 3 safety sets in sub packages to mask their lack of depth at linebacker with both Bell (5-11 205) and Shawn Williams (6-0 212) capable of playing linebacker in passing situations. This is a deep secondary and one with a lot of upside if William Jackson and Jessie Bates can have bounce back years after down 2019 seasons.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bengals had the worst record in the league last season, but they have more talent than most teams coming off of a 2-14 season, as most of their losses were close, especially down the stretch when their defense played at a high level. That defense now adds DJ Reader in free agency and should get bounce back years from defensive backs William Jackson and Jessie Bates. Outside of a terrible linebacking corps, they have as much talent as some of the best defenses in the league.

The addition of Joe Burrow atop the draft is also huge for them long-term, even if he isn’t necessarily going to be a huge upgrade on Dalton right away. Burrow will likely be under siege frequently behind a horrible offensive line that will hold the whole offense back, but the Bengals have plenty of skill position talent and should be better on offense than they were last season, at the very least. The Bengals are unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but they were competitive in most of their games last season and should be able to at least win a few more of the close ones this season. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Bengals might not win many games in a tough division, but they should be competitive in most of their games and they’re capable of pulling some surprise upsets as well. It would take a huge rookie year from Joe Burrow to elevate this offense to the point where this could be a playoff team, but the defense is very capable, even with expected starting cornerback Trae Waynes set to miss significant time.

Projection: 6-10 (4th in AFC North) 

Pittsburgh Steelers 2020 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Quarterback

The Steelers had one of the best offenses in the league in 2018, finishing 6th in first down rate at 40.55%, and, even though most expected them to take a hit from losing Antonio Brown, they were still considered an above average offense by most people going into 2019. Instead, their offense plummeted to 31st in first down rate at 30.92%. After being basically shut out in New England week 1 against a Patriots defense that went on to be the best in the league by a wide margin, the Steelers lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger early in their week 2 game against the Seahawks and had to start backup quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges the rest of the way. 

There were other injuries on this offense that held them back and I’ll get into those later, but Rudolph and Hodges were by far the biggest reason for their anemic offense, as they were bad even by backup standards. They completed a combined 62.3% of their passes for an average of 6.38 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions and ranked 37th and 39th respectively out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Hodges was an undrafted rookie, so his struggles weren’t surprising, but Rudolph was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and was seen as possibly a long-term successor to Roethlisberger, so it’s highly disappointing that he played badly enough to be benched for an undrafted rookie and that he didn’t play better upon regaining the job.

Despite the Steelers’ big offensive dropoff, they were still pretty competitive, actually in the playoff race until late in the season and finishing at 8-8, although they weren’t quite as good as their record suggests, as they finished 21st in first down rate differential at -1.51% and had a -14 point differential despite a +8 turnover margin. The reason they were competitive was that their defense made a big jump forward. After finishing the 2018 season 14th in first down rate allowed at 36.17%, the Steelers finished 2nd in 2019 at 32.43%. If the Steelers can return to form on offense and maintain their high level of play on defense, it’s not hard to see how they could be Super Bowl contenders this season.

There are some problems with that optimistic projection though, on both sides of the ball. I’ll get into their defense later, but on offense one big concern is simply that Roethlisberger, even though he’ll return in 2020, is now going into his age 38 season coming off of a major injury to his throwing arm. Roethlisberger has completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.82 YPA, 363 touchdowns, and 191 interceptions in 16 seasons in the league (216 starts) and he has finished in the top-6 among quarterbacks on PFF in 8 seasons, but he’s a big question mark going into 2020 and he already seemed to be declining a little in 2018 when he finished 16th among quarterbacks on PFF. Rudolph and Hodges remain as the only backup options (though they could still sign a veteran like Cam Newton), so the Steelers are banking on Roethlisberger returning to form, which is far from a sure thing.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Roethlisberger also doesn’t have the same supporting cast as he did in 2018. Antonio Brown’s absence is the big one, but there are some other players on this offense whose stock isn’t as high as a year ago. One of those players is Brown’s former running game JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is coming off of an injury plagued 2019. A year after posting a 111/1426/7 slash line, Smith-Schuster went for just 42/552/3 in 2019. 

A second round pick in 2017, Smith-Schuster averaged 2.11 yards per route run in his first 2 seasons in the league and seemingly broke out in 2018, but there were questions about whether or could produce without Brown drawing double teams opposite him and, fair or not, those questions remain, as, for reasons unrelated to Brown, he didn’t get a real shot to prove himself in 2019. Smith-Schuster was limited to 573 snaps in 12 games by leg injuries that also sapped his effectiveness and he had to play with among the worst quarterbacks in the league. The double teams that came his way as a result of Brown being gone didn’t help matters, but they probably were not the primary reason why he didn’t produce.

If he and Roethlisberger can stay healthy, Smith-Schuster should get a fair shot as the #1 guy in 2020, as the double teams likely aren’t going anywhere, with young wide receivers Dionte Johnson and James Washington still the top guys behind him on the depth chart. Given that they lack another proven pass catcher, the Steelers will need a big year from Smith-Schuster. He is only going into his age 24 season and has all the financial incentive in the world to produce in a contract year, but he comes with some uncertainty.

Johnson and Washington do come with some upside, as they were drafted in the 3rd round in 2019 and the 2nd round in 2018 respectively, as does this year’s 2nd year rounder, Chase Claypool out of Notre Dame. Claypool may be too raw to contribute significantly as a rookie, even though his versatility to also potentially play tight end is intriguing, but Johnson and Washington will be depended on for big roles at wide receiver. Both Washington and Johnson earned middling grades last season, but they led the team with a 44/735/3 slash line on 80 targets and a 59/680/5 slash line on 92 targets respectively, with Smith-Schuster banged up for most of the season, and they had 1.76 yards per route run and 1.61 yards per route run respectively, pretty solid considering the lack of talent around them on offense. 

For Washington, it was a significant improvement on a horrendous rookie year (0.57 yards per route run) and a good sign for the former 2nd round pick’s long-term prospects and for Johnson it was an impressive rookie year that he could easily build on in his second season. If Smith-Schuster is healthy he’ll get a larger target share this season, but this should be a much better offense overall, with Roethlisberger under center and Smith-Schuster drawing away coverage, and one or both of Johnson and Washington could take a step forward themselves as well, so they could definitely exceed last year’s receiving totals even if they don’t get the same target share.

The Steelers should also get more out of their tight ends, after completing just 53 passes to tight ends all last season. Vance McDonald led the position with a just 38/273/3 slash line, but he had a 50/610/4 slash line in 2018 with Roethlisberger in the lineup, so he has some bounce back potential, though it’s worth noting he’s going into his age 30 season and hasn’t topped 391 yards receiving in any of his other 6 seasons in the league besides 2018. Still, he should be more productive than last season and he’s a strong blocker as well. The Steelers also added tight end Eric Ebron in free agency, who will also contribute as a pass catching tight end. He comes over from the Colts on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, so the Steelers are likely to use a lot of two-tight end sets. 

Ebron was selected 10th overall in 2014 and has shown flashes of why, but they’ve been inconsistent. His career best year came in 2018 when he had a 66/750/13 slash line, but he did that on 110 targets, catching just 60.0% of his targets for 6.82 yards per target, despite playing with Andrew Luck. In 2019, in a weaker offense with Jack Doyle healthy and snapping snaps with him, Ebron was limited to just a 31/375/3 slash line in 11 games. For his career, he has just a 55/616/5 slash line per 16 games. Still only going into his age 27 season, he could still have theoretical upside, but most likely he won’t be a game changer as a receiver and he also doesn’t block well either. The Steelers are young at wide receiver and could struggle for consistency as a result, but they have a high ceiling at the position and they have a solid tight end duo as well, so this has the potential to be a strong receiving corps.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another player whose stock was higher a year ago is running back James Conner. At this time last year, he was coming off of what looked like a breakout year in his 2nd season in the league and his first season as a starter, as he rushed for 973 yards and 12 touchdowns on 215 carries (4.53 YPC), while adding a 55/497/1 slash line through the air. In 2019, injuries limited him to 328 snaps in 10 games and he rushed for just 464 yards and 4 touchdowns on 116 carries (4.00 YPC) with a 34/251/3 slash line through the air. Despite his relative struggles, Conner was missed when not in the lineup as, in his absence, Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels were their top backs and they combined for 3.45 YPC on 174 carries on the season, a big part of the reason why the Steelers ranked 30th in the NFL with a team 3.66 YPC average.

Not only did injuries sap Conner’s abilities even when he was on the field, he was also held back by the offense around him, as were all of Pittsburgh’s running backs. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Conner still has a career 4.36 YPC average and is still only going into his age 25 season, so he has a lot of bounce back potential, but it’s worth noting he’s never made it through a full 16 game season. When healthy, he’s an every down back with the upside to be among the best in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee. Given that and the fact that Conner is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, the Steelers added to their running back depth this off-season, adding Anthony McFarland in the 4th round of the draft. He’ll compete with Snell and Samuels for snaps behind Conner.

Snell and Samuels are also recent draft picks, with Snell going in the 4th round in 2019 and Samuels going in the 5th round in 2018. Snell’s rookie year YPC of 3.94 on 108 carries is nothing to write home about, but part of it was just that he didn’t break a big run, as he actually did a pretty solid job keeping offense on track all things considered, as his 49% carry success rate was 24th out of 45 qualifying running backs. For comparison, Conner ranked 35th at 45%. The Steelers are highly unlikely to have the same 689/345 pass attempt/carry split they had in Roethlisberger’s last season in 2018, with Roethlisberger coming off of injury and a dependable defense supporting them, so Snell could earn himself a somewhat significant role as a change of pace back behind Conner and he’d of course be in line for an even bigger role if Conner was to get hurt.

Samuels, on the other hand, was limited to a pathetic 2.65 YPC average last season on 66 carries and, though he did have a 4.57 YPC average on 56 carries as a rookie, he’s still unlikely to ever develop into a significant contributor as a runner. Where he can be a contributor is as a versatile player in the passing game, not just out of the backfield, but also as a tight end or wide receiver as well, positions he’s played in the past. He had 47 catches last season after 26 as a rookie and, even if Conner is healthier this season, Samuel should remain active on passing downs. This is a young group with a lot of upside, but also downside.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Steelers were also disappointing on the offensive line last season, at least compared to their normal dominant selves, as they got below average play from the left guard and the center spot. Center Maurkice Pouncey has been better in the past, including 4 finishes in a row in the top-14 among centers on Pro Football Focus in his previous 4 healthy seasons prior to finishing 34th out of 35 qualifying centers in 2019, but he’s going into his age 31 season now, so his best days could be behind him. He has some bounce back potential, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he kept struggling. 

At left guard, long-time veteran (145 starts in 11 seasons, all in Pittsburgh) Ramon Foster retired this off-season after turning 34 in January. Foster was underwhelming in his final season as a starter, so he won’t be terribly difficult to replace, and the Steelers have a couple different options. The simplest one would just be to plug in veteran free agent addition Stefen Wisniewski for the short-term. The ultimate journeyman, Wisniewski is now going into his 10th season in the league with his 5th team. 

Wisniewski is an experienced starter (103 starts) with experience at both guard and center and he was consistently an above average starter in his prime (77 starts in 5 seasons from 2011-2015), but he’s been limited to more reserve work over the past 4 seasons (26 starts) and is now going into his age 31. Still, Wisniewski has shown well as a spot starter as well, especially down the stretch for the Super Bowl winning Chiefs last season, and there are definitely worse players to have to start at guard this season. He could at least be an adequate replacement for Foster.

The Steelers’ other option is to move right tackle Matt Feiler to left guard. Feiler has broken out as an above average starting right tackle over the past 2 seasons, finishing 35th among offensive tackles on PFF in 2018 (10 starts) and 17th last season (16 starts), so it would be risky to try to change his position and hope he plays at the same level in a less familiar spot, but the Steelers have good offensive tackle depth and may feel that moving Feiler inside allows them to get their 5 best offensive linemen on the field at the same time. 

If Feiler were to move inside, right tackle duties would either be left to Chukwuma Okorafor or Zach Banner. Okorafor has played just 229 mediocre snaps in 2 seasons in the league, but he went in the 3rd round in 2018 and is still only going into his age 23 season, so he has plenty of upside. Banner, meanwhile, went in the 4th round in 2017 with the Colts, but spent his first 2 seasons in the league barely playing while bouncing from the Colts to the Browns to the Panthers to, eventually, the Steelers. With the Steelers, he flashed on 216 snaps last season in the first significant action of his career, but was primarily used as a situational 6th offensive lineman/blocking tight end and saw just 27 pass block snaps all season. He would be a huge projection to a larger role, even if he did show a lot of potential as a run blocker last season.

Along with Feiler, left tackle Alejandro Villanueva and right guard David DeCastro are coming off of strong seasons, so, outside of left guard and center, this was still a strong offensive line last season. Both Villanueva and DeCastro have been starting in their current spot for several years, with Villanueva making 74 starts since 2015 and DeCastro making 111 starts since 2012. Both have played consistently well, with Villanueva finishing in the top-21 among offensive tackles on PFF in 4 straight seasons and DeCastro finishing in the top-17 among guards on PFF in 7 straight seasons. Age is becoming a concern for both of them, with Villanueva going into his age 32 season and DeCastro going into his age 30 season. Villanueva’s age is a bigger concern, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet, nor has DeCastro. Even if they decline this season, they should remain at least solid starters. This group isn’t as dominant as it has traditionally been, but this is still a solid unit.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

If the Steelers’ offense can at least be capable this season and their defense plays like it did last season when it finished 2nd only to the Patriots with a 32.43% first down rate allowed, the Steelers have a great chance to make it back to the post-season. There is reason to believe their defense won’t be quite as good in 2020, however, primarily due to the sheer number of players who had career best years on this side of the ball. The likelihood that happens again is low, so some regression is to be expected just from that. The Steelers were closer to the 15th ranked Saints on defense last year than they were to the 1st ranked Patriots, so even a little bit of regression on this side of the ball could have a big impact.

The two most obvious players who had career best years were starting edge defenders TJ Watt and Bud Dupree. Watt, a first round pick in 2017, made a big leap from his 2nd to his 3rd year, finishing 51st and 26th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2017 and 2018 respectively before jumping to #1 overall in 2019, when he was a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate with 14.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate. 

Dupree, meanwhile, went in the first round in 2015 and suddenly broke out in his contract year in 2019, after 4 underwhelming years to start his career (9.4% pressure rate). Dupree had 11.5 sacks and while his peripheral pass rush numbers weren’t as good (9 hits, 9.4% pressure rate), he still finished 24th among edge defenders on PFF. Both players could regress in 2020, particularly Dupree, who is a complete one-year wonder, which is why he’s likely to spend the season on the franchise tag (15.828 million) and not get a long-term extension this off-season. Watt should still be one of the better players in the league at his position, but he could have a long productive career and still only ever match last year’s level of production a couple times, so he’s not a guarantee to be as good.

It’s also possible Watt or Dupree could miss time with injury, after both played in 16 games in 2019, which would expose the Steelers’ lack of depth at the position. Watt and Dupree played 86.3% and 90.4% of the snaps respectively last season because of their lack of depth and the Steelers are likely hoping they can do the same again this season. Even Anthony Chickillo, their top reserve with 146 snaps played last season, is no longer with the team, leaving raw 3rd round rookie Alex Highsmith and 2018 undrafted rookie Olasunkanmi Adeniyi (71 career snaps) as their likely top reserves. Everything went well at the position in 2019, but injuries and/or regression are certainly possible in 2020, which would expose their lack of depth.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

On the interior, the Steelers get a talented player back from injury in Stephon Tuitt, who plays defensive end in base packages and stays on the field as an interior pass rusher in sub packages. Tuitt was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked interior defender in 2017, their 24th ranked interior defender in 2018, and then was ranked 6th at his position through 6 games when he went down for the season with a torn pectoral last year, but his absence didn’t actually affect this defense that much. Reserve Tyson Alualu (432 snaps) replaced Tuitt on early downs and, while he didn’t add much pass rush (7.4% pressure rate), he actually had a better run stopping grade on the season than Tuitt did, so he was arguably an upgrade in that aspect, finishing 12th on PFF among interior defenders on run stopping grade.

Meanwhile, nose tackle Javon Hargrave took over as more or less an every down player and finished the season as PFF’s 9th ranked interior defender, excelling against the run, but also adding 4 sacks and a 13.1% pressure rate. Hargrave signed with the Eagles this off-season, so, while Tuitt’s return helps in a vacuum, it’s offset by the loss of Hargrave. Alualu is also unlikely to repeat arguably the most effective season of his 10-year career, now going into his age 33 season. On top of that, Tuitt is far from a lock to stay healthy, not having played in all 16 games since his rookie year back in 2014.

Cameron Heyward played all 16 games on the other side and had a dominant year as an every down player, finishing 2nd among interior defenders, only behind Aaron Donald. He’s unlikely to be quite as good in 2020, however. Heyward has been a high level player for years, finishing in the top-23 among interior defenders on PFF in each of his last 5 healthy seasons, but prior to last season he had never finished higher than 7th at his position and that was his only other finish in the top-10. Now going into his age 31 season, Heyward should continue playing at a high level for at least another couple seasons, but it’s likely his 2019 season will stand out as clearly the best year of his career when all is said and done. Any regression from him hurts their chances of remaining an elite unit in 2020.

The Steelers did replenish depth somewhat this off-season by trading for Chris Wormley, formerly of division rival Baltimore. Wormley was a 3rd round pick in 2017, but has been middling at best on 1,027 career snaps. Already going into his age 27 season, Wormley is unlikely to make a big impact and he’d be playing slightly out of position if he had to play nose tackle, which is most likely to be his primary spot, with Heyward and Tuitt as the ends in base packages and Alualu still around as a reserve. This should still be a strong group if everyone is healthy, but they can afford an injury much less this season than last season because of the loss of Hargrave and both Heyward and Alualu are on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to repeat their career best year from 2019.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Linebacker was probably the Steelers’ worst group on defense last season and it doesn’t get better after losing starter Mark Barron in free agency. Barron was pretty underwhelming last season, but he played 750 snaps and they didn’t really replace him, which could force situational run stuffer Vince Williams into an every down role, with no good depth to speak of at the position. Williams played well against the run last season, as he has throughout his career, but he only played 397 snaps total and has never been good in coverage, which has limited him to a max of 785 snaps in a season in 7 seasons in the league. He’s unlikely to suddenly get better, now going into his age 31 season. The Steelers may try to mask their lack of linebacker depth by using a 3rd safety as a linebacker frequently in sub packages, but their depth at safety is suspect as well, so that wouldn’t necessarily solve the problem.

Fortunately, Devin Bush remains as an every down player at the other off ball linebacker spot in this 3-4 defense. Bush had some growing pains early on, but finished with an above average grade on Pro Football Focus regardless and was their 19th ranked off ball linebacker from week 4 on. Still only going into his age 22 season, Bush is still dripping with upside and could easily develop into one of the best off ball linebackers in the league over the next few seasons. He elevates a position group that has a significant depth problem.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Top cornerback Steven Nelson is also coming off of the best year of his career. He has improved in all 4 seasons he’s been a starter (53 starts), but he finished 83rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2016, 74th in 2017, and 26th in 2018, so his 7th ranked finish in 2019 was a big jump. Still only going into his age 27 season, it’s possible Nelson has turned a corner and will remain an elite player and he should remain at least a solid starter even if he regresses, but he’s not a guarantee to repeat by far the best season of his career.

Along with the addition of Nelson on a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal last off-season, the addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick via trade after week 2 was among the biggest additions to this roster that led to their breakout season on defense last year. Like Nelson and many others, Fitzpatrick is coming off of a career best year, finishing 11th among safeties on PFF, but there is reason to believe he can keep it up.

Fitzpatrick was the 11th overall pick by the Dolphins in 2018 and had an underwhelming rookie year, while moving all over the formation, outside cornerback, slot cornerback, deep safety, box safety, which led to Fitzpatrick wanting out of Miami. He got his wish when the Steelers sent a 2020 first round pick (eventually 18th overall) to acquire him and immediately he broke out, playing primarily as an every down deep safety, which seems to be his best spot. Fitzpatrick is obviously still unproven, but he’s still very young, going into his age 24 season, and looks like he’s going to be one of the top safeties in the league for years to come.

Fellow starting safety Terrell Edmunds also went in the first round in 2018, taken directly by the Steelers at #28 overall. Edmunds hasn’t been as good as Fitzpatrick and doesn’t have as high of a ceiling, but he’s been a capable starter across 31 starts and has the upside to be a lot more going forward. He won’t necessarily have a breakout year this year, but he could and I would expect him to at least take a step forward after back-to-back middling seasons to begin his career.

At cornerback, Joe Haden and Mike Hilton remain as the #2 and #3 cornerbacks behind Nelson. Both earned above average grades last season, Haden ranking 34th among cornerbacks on PFF and Hilton ranking 51st. Haden is an experienced starter with 123 starts in 10 seasons in the league and he has earned an above average grade in 8 of those 10 seasons, with one of the exceptions being an injury wrecked season in 2015. His age is becoming a concern, now in his age 31 season, but even if he declines a little, he should remain a solid starter at least another year or two.

With Nelson and Haden on the outside, Nelson specializes in the slot, where he has played 86.7% of his 1,121 coverage snaps over the past 3 seasons. He has ranked in the top-20 among cornerbacks in slot coverage snaps played in all 3 seasons and he has allowed just 1.13 yards per route run on those coverage snaps, but he’s not just a coverage cornerback, as he played the run well as well and adds value as a blitzer off the edge, with 6.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate on 200 career blitzes. Hilton went undrafted back in 2016, but he’s earned an above average grade from PFF in all 3 seasons in which he’s played and has developed into one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league.

Hilton’s size limitations at 5-9 184 mean he’ll almost never play outside, but the Steelers fortunately do have good outside depth in Cameron Sutton, who is a good 4th cornerback. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Sutton hasn’t played much in his career yet (621 snaps, 2 starts) and he was pretty bad in his first 2 seasons, but he flashed on a career high 268 snaps last season and still may have a lot of upside, only going into his age 25 season. He’s probably overqualified as a 4th cornerback. Their depth isn’t as good at safety, where Kameron Kelly, who was horrendous on the first 133 snaps of his career in 2019, is likely going to be the 3rd safety, but this is still a strong secondary overall, led by Steven Nelson and Minkah Fitzpatrick, who should have strong seasons even if they don’t match last year’s career bests.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

In 2018, the Steelers ranked 6th in first down rate at 40.55% with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. In 2019, the Steelers ranked 2nd in first down rate allowed at 32.43%. Now that Ben Roethlisberger is coming back, many expect they can have a top offense and defense and compete for the Super Bowl. I don’t think that’s quite true. On offense, Roethlisberger is going into his age 38 season, coming off of a major injury, without a competent backup, and his supporting cast isn’t the same as it was two years ago. On defense, the Steelers’ top-6 defensive players last season (TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Javon Hargrave, Steven Nelson, and Bud Dupree) all either had the best year of their career last season or, in Hargrave’s case, they are no longer on the team. 

They still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball and they get Stephon Tuitt back from injury to replace Hargrave, but a lot went close to perfect on defense last season and they may regress back closer to the middle of the pack in 2020. This should still be a competitive team that has a good shot to get one of the three wild cards spots in the AFC in this new expanded playoff format, but they’re clearly behind the Ravens in the division and I wouldn’t consider them true Super Bowl contenders. I will have an official prediction closer to the start of the season.

Final Update: The Steelers are still in good shape going into the season and look like a borderline contender. Their chances of winning the division increased when the Ravens cut Earl Thomas, but I still have Pittsburgh behind Baltimore in the AFC North.

Projection: 11-5 (2nd in AFC North)