Washington Redskins 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

In 2012, the Redskins mortgaged the future to move up 4 spots in the draft to select Baylor quarterback and Heisman winner Robert Griffin, sending picks #6 and #39, along with future first rounders in 2013 and 2014, to the Rams for #2. Griffin won Offensive Rookie of the Year that season and the trade looked like a huge success for a franchise in need of stability at the quarterback position, but he suffered a torn ACL in their playoff loss to the Seahawks that season and was never the same again.

Given all that they gave up to get him, that mistake had the potential to set their franchise back a few years, but the Redskins were saved from that by Kirk Cousins, a 4th round pick in that same 2012 draft and a head-scratching selection in a lot of people’s eyes at the time, given all they had already given up to get Griffin. Cousins struggled early in his career as a spot starter and those struggles continued into his full first season as a starter in 2015. In his first 17 career starts, Cousins completed just 62.4% of his passes for an average of 6.97 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions.

Then the light seemed to click for him 8 games into 2015 and he has been on some kind of run since then, completing 68.8% of his passes for an average of 8.48 YPA, 44 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 24 starts. His second half tear in 2015 got the Redskins into the playoffs and earned him the 15th place rank on Pro Football Focus among quarterbacks. In 2016, the Redskins just missed the playoffs at 8-7-1 and Cousins finished 8th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. With Griffin spending last season on a 1-15 Cleveland team, Cousins’ emergence has shown just how quickly things can change in the NFL and the value of selecting the best overall player in the draft regardless of need, especially in the middle rounds.

The Redskins have been rightfully a little skeptical of his sudden emergence, franchise tagging him in each of the last 2 off-seasons, but being very conservative in long-term extension talks. Cousins will make a combined 43.9 million on the two tags, but the Redskins have refused to go above 20 million dollars annually on a long-term deal. Cousins would be owed about 34.5 million on a third franchise tag next off-season, making that not a realistic option. Something will have to give at some point. Cousins is rumored to be interested in signing with ex-offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers, who didn’t do much to address the quarterback position this off-season and who would welcome Cousins with open arms. Cousins could ultimately prove to be more of a system quarterback, but he’s a great fit in Jay Gruden’s system and should be able to continue his hot streak.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Cousins threw for 4,917 yards last season, 3rd best in the NFL, and averaged 8.11 yards per attempt, also 3rd best in the NFL. He deserves a lot of the credit, but he was definitely helped out by one of the league’s best receiving corps. Unfortunately, his top 2 wide receivers, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, left in free agency this off-season. Both players topped 1000 receiving yards last season, one of 4 wide receiver duos in the league to do so (Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas, and Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree), and they combined for 2,046 receiving yards, 41.4% of the team’s total. They won’t be easy to replace.

The Redskins do have some obvious replacements though, including free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor. A failure as a quarterback, Terrelle Pryor’s NFL career got a second life when he converted to wide receiver with the Browns 2 seasons ago. The position change ended up being one of the smartest things the Browns have ever done, as Pryor had a breakout season in 2016 in just his second season as a wide receiver, catching 77 passes for 1007 yards and 4 touchdowns and finishing 31st among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus.

He’s still a one-year wonder and teams are still skeptical about him as a legitimate top flight receiver, as evidenced by the fact that he had to settle for an incentivized 1-year, 6 million dollar deal in free agency. That being said, he’s incredibly gifted athletically with legitimate 4.3 speed at 6-4 223 and may just be scratching the surface on his potential as a wide receiver, still only going into his age 28 season. With a full season as a starter under his best, Pryor has a good chance to improve on his 2016 numbers on a much better passing offense than Cleveland’s. With Garcon and Jackson leaving behind 216 targets, Pryor could match the 140 targets he received with the Browns last season. He could prove to be a very wise signing on a relatively low risk deal and emerge as the clear #1 receiver in Washington.

Opposite him, last year’s first round pick Josh Doctson is penciled in as the other starter. The 21st overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Doctson is a complete mystery as an NFL player still, after being limited to 31 nondescript snaps as a rookie by achilles problems. If he’s healthy, he could have a real impact, but he’s basically still a rookie given how little he’s actually played. The one obvious benefit with Doctson and Pryor instead of Jackson and Garcon is height, as Doctson and Pryor are 6-3 and 6-4 respectively, while Jackson and Garcon are 5-10 and 6-0 respectively. The Redskins ranked 30th in red zone touchdown percentage last season, ahead of only the Jets and Texans, so, even if they don’t have as many passing yards as they had last season with Jackson and Garcon, they could make up for it with greater efficiency near the goal line.

Jamison Crowder is the leading returning receiver and he too is undersized at 5-8 182. Just a 4th round pick in 2015, Crowder has surprisingly been a solid slot receiver in 2 seasons in the league, catching 126 passes for 1451 yards and 9 touchdowns in 32 games (15 starts) and grading out about average on Pro Football Focus in both seasons. Still only going into his age 24 season, Crowder’s best football could be yet to come. He’ll probably start the off-season as the 3rd receiver again, but could push Doctson for playing time outside if Doctson underwhelms the coaching staff, though Crowder’s size is a real limitation outside. Even if he remains the slot receiver, he’s surpassed 700 snaps in each of his first 2 seasons in the league in that role, so he will remain a big part of the offense. With Jackson and Garcon gone, expect Crowder to top the 97 targets he had last season, regardless of where he officially lands on the depth chart.

Tight end Jordan Reed could also top his target total from a year ago (87), but only if he can manage to stay healthy, something he’s never been able to do. Reed has never suffered any serious injuries, but hasn’t played more than 14 games in a season in 4 seasons in the league and has missed a total of 18 games, including 4 last season. When on the field, he’s one of the best tight ends in the league, finishing in the top-7 among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in 3 of 4 seasons in the league. At 6-2 246, Reed moves like a wide receiver and is an improving blocker. His career per game averages translate to a slash line of 86/905/7 over 16 games, so he could have a huge year if he can finally stay on the field. That would go a long way towards replacing Jackson and Garcon and improving their red zone offense.

Reed’s durability issues opened up playing time last season for #2 tight end Vernon Davis, who played 674 snaps. He fared pretty well as the #2 tight end, catching 44 of 59 passes for 583 yards and 2 touchdowns. Davis graded out above average in 5 straight seasons from 2009-2013, but looked like a shell of his former self in 2014 and 2015, grading out 62nd out of 67 eligible in 2014 and then 51st out of 67 eligible in 2015. Davis showed he still had something left in the tank in 2016 though and finished 21st among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. Going into his age 33 season, Davis’ best days are probably behind him, but he should still be a solid #2 tight end.

Even with Jackson and Garcon gone, this receiving corps is in good shape. They were one of the deepest receiving corps in the league prior to losing Jackson and Garcon and they may have gotten the steal of the off-season in Terrelle Pryor. Between that, a possible breakout year by Jamison Crowder, and the potential of Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson coming off of injury, this receiving corps has a very high upside. There is always risk involved when you have to change up the receivers as much as the Redskins did this off-season, but the Redskins could have a better passing offense even if they don’t pass for as many yards because they should be more efficient in the red zone.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Kirk Cousins was also helped by a strong offensive line and, unlike in the receiving corps, they return all 5 starters on the offensive line. The best of the bunch is left tackle Trent Williams, who finished 1st among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Williams has made 73 of 80 starts over the past 5 seasons and finished in the top-18 in all 5 seasons, including a first place finish both last season and in 2013. The one downside with Williams is he’s a failed drug test away from a season long suspension, but, if he can avoid further trouble, he has a good chance to play more games this year than last year, when he missed 4 games with a suspension. If he does miss time, backup Ty Nsekhe would fill in and he played pretty well last season, so the Redskins are deep at the position too.

On the other side, right tackle Morgan Moses is also a strong starter. A 3rd round pick in 2014, Moses struggled in limited action as a rookie, but he has made all 32 starts in the past 2 seasons and finished 16th and 17th respectively among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie contract, the Redskins locked him up long-term with a 5-year, 38.5 million dollar extension this off-season. That makes him the 3rd highest paid right tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary. If he continues playing like he has in the past 2 seasons, he is well worth it.

With Moses locked up long-term, the Redskins may turn their attention to center Spencer Long, another 2014 3rd round pick who is going into the final year of his rookie deal. Long is not as good as Moses, but he has been a solid starter over the past 2 seasons, first at left guard in 2015 and then at center last season. He was a little bit better at left guard and may ultimately move back there, but he’s a capable center as well and worth locking up at the right price because of his versatility.

Current left guard Shawn Lauvao is also going into the final year of his deal, but re-signing him shouldn’t be a priority, especially with Long capable of playing left guard, as Lauvao is the weak link on this offensive line. Lauvao has plenty of experience, with 51 career starts, but has never once graded out above average and finished last season 60th out of 72 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. Going into his age 30 season, Lauvao likely isn’t getting any better any time soon and will not be guaranteed a starting job for 2018. The Redskins used a 6th round pick on center Chase Rouiller and could start him at center and Long at left guard in 2018 if Rouiller develops as a rookie.

Rounding out the offensive line is another recent draft pick, Brandon Schreff, the 5th overall pick in 2015. The highest draft interior offensive lineman in 30 years, Schreff drew Zach Martin comparisons coming out of Iowa, but has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far in his career. He has finished 26th and 19th among guards in 2 seasons in the league, but has yet to show that he was worth drafting as high as the Redskins took him. Still only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible he shows it this year and he definitely still has a high ceiling. It’s a strong offensive line overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One area where the Redskins want to be better this season is on the ground. They averaged a reasonable 4.47 yards per carry average, but that was largely because of a strong offensive line. They also passed 607 times to 379 runs, so much of their production on the ground came as a result of the defense worrying about the pass. Matt Jones started the season as the lead back with 99 carries in the first 7 games of the season, but then lost a fumble, his 6th lost fumble on 243 career carries in 2 seasons in the league, and didn’t see any touches the rest of the season. The 2015 3rd round pick has talent, but has just averaged 3.91 yards per carry in his career and hasn’t been able to hold onto the football. He’s no lock for the final roster.

After Jones lost the job, the Redskins turned to Robert Kelley, an undrafted rookie. The big 6-0 228 pounder picked up what was blocked and rushed for 704 yards and 6 touchdowns on 168 carries (4.19 YPC), but was underwhelming overall and didn’t offer anything in the passing game (12 catches for 82 yards). He will be pushed for the starting job by 4th round rookie Samaje Perine. Perine has good upside, but is very unproven and will be tough to count on.  He’s similar to Kelley in that he has great size (5-10 235), but isn’t overly explosive and doesn’t offer much in the passing game.

Fortunately, the Redskins have Chris Thompson to serve as the passing down back, regardless of who carries the load on early downs. Thompson led the backfield with 489 snaps last season and could easily do so again in 2017. He had just 68 carries, which was actually a career high, but he chipped in 49 passes, after catching 35 a season ago. He’s not a great talent, but fills an important role for this offense because he is their only running back with good hands out of the backfield. Barring a breakout rookie year from Perine, the Redskins’ running backs should be underwhelming again in 2017.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

As good as their offense was last season, 5th in first down rate, the Redskins still missed the playoffs because they had one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing the 3rd highest first down rate of any defense in the league. Making matters worse, the Redskins lost 3 of their top-4 defensive linemen in terms of snaps played this off-season, Chris Baker (783), Cullen Jenkins (308), and Ricky Jean-Francois (442). All 3 players played pretty well, grading out above average, especially Baker, who finished last season 9th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus.

They didn’t do much in free agency to address the defensive line, aside from overpaying Stacy McGee and Terrell McClain on a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal and a 4-year, 21 million dollar deal respectively. Both players are mediocre options. McClain made 15 starts last season, but didn’t start a game from 2012-2015 and finished last season 86th out of 127 eligible interior defensive lineman. Already going into his age 29 season, he probably won’t be any better going forward. McGee, meanwhile, played alright on 242 snaps last season in 9 games in an injury plagued season, but graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league prior to that. Both figure to see significant playing time at the 3-4 defensive end position.

Given how weak they are they upfront, the Redskins were very fortunate that Alabama defensive end Jonathan Allen fell into their lap at 17th overall. Considered by some a top-3 talent and widely considered a top-10 lock, concerns about his shoulders and an early run on offensive skill position players led to a draft day fall for Allen. Assuming their medical staff cleared him, the Redskins probably didn’t waste much time deciding whether or not to take him once he fell to 17. He adds talent at a position of major need and could end up being one of the steals of the draft if he can stay healthy. He could lead this defensive line in snaps played as a rookie. Allen, McGee, McClain, and second year player Matt Ioannidis, a 5th round pick who struggled on 103 snaps as a rookie, will rotate at the defensive end position this season.

Ziggy Hood is the one holdover from last season and he will remain the starting nose tackle. Unlike Baker, Jenkins, and Jean-Francois, who were all capable or better players last season, Hood struggled mightily, so his return doesn’t really help them. He played 661 snaps, second most on the team, but finished 120th among 127 eligible interior defensive linemen. Hood is plenty experienced, with 60 career starts in 114 games, but has graded out below average in all 8 seasons in the league. Now going into his age 30 season, Hood shouldn’t be given as many snaps as he was last season, even on an overall weak defensive line. He shouldn’t be anything more than a pure base package player who plays 400-500 snaps. The addition of Allen in the draft could help this unit immensely, but, outside of Allen, this might be the least talented defensive line in football.

Grade: C-

Linebackers

The Redskins are much deeper at the outside linebacker position though, where Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, and Trent Murphy rotated snaps last season, playing 788, 768, and 675 snaps respectively. They are even deeper at the position this season, with Junior Galette finally getting healthy after missing the last two seasons with two torn achilles tendons and Ryan Anderson coming in as a 2nd round pick. The Redskins don’t seem to have much room for Galette and Anderson to break into the rotation, so they may line up Smith and Murphy, who are bigger edge defenders at 6-5 265 and 6-5 268 respectively, inside on passing downs in certain situations. That would help mask their issues on the defensive line.

Things aren’t all good at outside linebacker, as Murphy will miss the first 4 games of the season after failing a drug test for performance enhancing drugs and Galette hasn’t played since 2014 and has off-the-field issues as well. Galette isn’t owed any guaranteed money this season, so, if he lacks explosiveness coming off of the injuries or his off-the-field issues become more of a problem, he could easily not make the final roster. Prior to the injuries, Galette finished 12th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013 and 4th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2014, totalling 22 sacks, but that’s close to ancient history at this point. The Redskins are likely considering anything he gives them in 2017 a bonus, but he definitely has some upside, still only going into his age 29 season.

Murphy, meanwhile, will be counted on to contribute upon his return from suspension, though he might not see as many snaps per game as he did last season in a more crowded position group. A 2014 2nd round pick, Murphy has graded out above average in all 3 seasons in the league and is coming off of his best year to date, finishing 11th among 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus. It’s unclear how much of that is as a result of whatever substance he tested positive for, but he should be at least a solid rotational player for them in 2017 regardless.

Ryan Kerrigan is the best of the bunch, playing all 96 games in 6 seasons since going 16th overall in 2011 and finishing 19th, 7th, 26th, 5th, and 9th respectively. One of the most consistent players in the league, Kerrigan is still in his prime, going into his age 29 season, and should continue playing at a high level in 2017. Preston Smith, meanwhile, has been the worst of the bunch through 2 seasons in the league, grading out below average in both seasons, but he’s hasn’t been terrible either and the 2015 second round pick could take a step forward in his 3rd year in the league. The rookie Ryan Anderson will also see some snaps, but they could be limited, considering all of the other edge defenders the Redskins have. He could be in line for a bigger role in 2018 with Murphy and Galette both set to hit free agency next off-season. It’s unclear why the Redskins have used 3 second round picks on the outside linebacker position in the last 4 drafts, but they do have a deep position group.

At middle linebacker, the Redskins have a pair of veteran middle linebackers coming off the best season of their career in Mason Foster and Zach Brown. Foster graded out below average in each of the first 5 seasons of his career, but came out of nowhere to finish 6th among middle linebackers in 2016. Re-signed to a 2-year, 2.5 million dollar deal last off-season, Foster proved to be a steal. Last season was likely a fluke, but he could continue being a capable starter for them in 2017.

Brown, meanwhile, was signed to just a 1-year, 1.25 million dollar deal by the Bills last off-season and responded by finishing 11th among middle linebackers. Brown wasn’t a bad player prior to last season, grading out around average in his first 4 seasons in the league from 2012-2015, but last season was the first season he played well both in coverage and against the run, after struggling to tackle early in his career. The Redskins signed him on an incentivized 1-year, 2.55 million dollar deal this off-season, as Brown was greeted by a skeptical market, and he could prove to be a steal again. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over Will Compton, who made 15 starts and finished 74th among 87 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus. It’s a solid linebacker group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Su’a Cravens played some linebacker last season as a rookie, but the 2016 2nd round pick is expected to move full time to safety this season, after flashing on 294 snaps in a hybrid role. The 6-1 222 pounder will be primarily a box safety. He will start next to free agent acquisition DJ Swearinger, who could prove to be a steal on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal. Swearinger finished 9th among safeties last season with the Cardinals, but drew limited interest on the open market because he was a one-year wonder who was already on his 3rd team with the Cardinals.

A 2013 2nd round pick by the Texans, Swearinger made 22 starts in 2 seasons with the Texans, but didn’t play well and frustrated the coaching staff, which got him released prior to the 2015 season. He spent 2015 with the Buccaneers, where he didn’t play much, before breaking out in a contract year with the Cardinals last season. Still only going into his age 26 season, Swearinger has always had talent and may have turned a corner as a player, but he will need to prove it again considering his history. The Redskins didn’t pay much to get him, so he was a pretty low risk signing, and he has the upside to make a real difference in this secondary. After struggling for consistency at the position in 2016, the Redskins’ safeties figure to be better this season.

The Redskins had more consistency at cornerback last season, where Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland made 16 starts and 14 starts respectively. The Redskins signed Norman to a 5-year, 75 million dollar deal last off-season after he finished 11th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus with the Panthers in 2015. Norman wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2015, but still finished 22nd at the position. Norman has made 42 starts in 46 games over the past 3 seasons and has finished in the top-27 among cornerbacks in all 3 seasons. He’s not quite the top flight cornerback the Redskins are paying him to be, but he’s definitely a valuable asset. The one concern is his age, as he’s already going into his age 30 season, despite this just being his 6th season in the league. The 2012 5th round pick was an old rookie, part of why he fell in the draft. He should still have another couple strong seasons left in the tank though.

Breeland, on the other hand, didn’t come close to matching his 2015 season. A 2014 4th round pick, Breeland seemingly had a breakout year in 2015, when he finished 21st among cornerbacks, but he fell to 82nd out of 111 eligible cornerbacks in 2016. Add in the fact the he finished 99th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks as a rookie in 2014 and his 2015 season looks like a complete fluke. He’s still young though, only going into his age 25 season, so he still has some upside going forward. In the final year of his rookie deal, this is a very big year for him. If he shows his 2015 form, he could cash in somewhere. He’s started 42 games out of 45 played in 3 seasons in the league and will continue to start opposite Norman.

Kendall Fuller, a 2016 3rd round pick, is the favorite to be the nickel cornerback. He actually finished 3rd on the team in cornerback snaps with 478, even though he didn’t really see playing time until week 4. He didn’t play all that well, but he could be better in his second season in the league. He will have to hold off Quinton Dunbar and Dashaun Phillips, both recent undrafted free agents who struggled on 300 and 157 snaps respectively last season, as well as 3rd round rookie Fabian Moreau.

Moreau has serious talent and could have gone in the second round, but he tore his pectoral working out before the draft and might not be ready for the start of the season. Even if he is, he’ll be behind the eight ball after missing the off-season. He’s not a natural fit on the slot either, so he was probably drafted more to be a long-term replacement for Bashaud Breeland than anything. The Redskins are pretty tight on cap space, so, if Breeland plays well this season, he would probably be priced out of Washington’s budget. Fuller should open the season as the 3rd cornerback in an improved secondary.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Redskins had a tough off-season ahead of them with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson set to leave to take more money elsewhere, but they did a good of job of adding talent on value contracts, bringing in Terrelle Pryor, DJ Swearinger, and Zach Brown. Their receiving corps will look a lot different this season, but they still have a lot of receiving talent and should be better near in the red zone because of their improved size. It’s hard to look past their defensive line and the additions of Stacy McGee and Terrell McClain to replace Chris Baker are unlikely to pan out, but they did get a gift when Jonathan Allen fell into their lap with the 17th overall pick. The Redskins should compete for a playoff spot once again. 

Final update: The Redskins could be a playoff team in the AFC, but will have a tough time making it in the loaded NFC, especially with outside linebacker Trent Murphy out for the season and safety Su’a Cravens out for an extended period of time.

Prediction: 8-8, 3rd in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

The Cowboys’ season looked over in the pre-season, when quarterback Tony Romo went down with a back injury. The Cowboys had gone just 1-11 without Romo the previous season, finishing 4-12 overall, and were counting on a healthy Romo to take them back to the post-season. It looked like the best case scenario for the Cowboys was that Romo could return around week 8 or 9, but, even in that scenario, the playoffs did not seem likely. Instead, backup quarterback Dak Prescott continued his strong pre-season and ended up making all 16 starts, winning Romo’s job from him outright, even though Romo was healthy enough to return later in the season.

The Cowboys won 12 games and a first round bye, before losing in the divisional round to the Green Bay Packers. After going 2-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less in 2015, a jump in win total was expected, even without Romo healthy, but I don’t think anyone saw this coming. A mere 4th round rookie, Prescott completed 67.8% of his passes for an average of 7.99 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions and rushed for another 282 yards and 6 touchdowns on 57 carries (4.95 YPA).

Prescott wasn’t the only reason why the Cowboys were so much improved from 2015 to 2016 and the Cowboys’ running game and offensive line certainly made much life easier for him, but Prescott played well in his own right, finishing 10th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. It’s possible Prescott could have a sophomore slump and show more of the issues that dropped him in the draft, but he could easily have another strong season. With Tony Romo retiring this off-season, this is Dak Prescott’s job for the foreseeable future.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Prescott was not the Cowboys’ only impact rookie, as #4 overall pick Ezekiel Elliott had one of the best rookie seasons ever by a running back, leading the league with 1631 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns on 322 carries, an average of 5.07 YPC. It was the 25th time in NFL history that a running back averaged at least 5 yards per carry on 300+ carries and the first time a rookie accomplished that feat. Elliott had a great mix of long runs and chain moving runs, leading the league with 14 carries of 20+ yards and 91 rushing first downs. He also chipped in with 32 catches for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns on 40 targets, which generated another 11 first downs.

He kept this offense on schedule, made life very easy for Prescott, and was a huge part of the reason why this offense ranked 3rd in first down rate, after finishing 18th in that metric in 2015. Prescott played well, but was helped immensely by the fact that he only had to throw the ball 459 times. Compare that with fellow rookie Carson Wentz, who threw 607 times, just the 2nd time in NFL history that a rookie quarterback threw that many passes. Elliott was helped by a strong offensive line, but deserves a ton of the credit as well, finishing 2nd among running backs on Pro Football Focus. Expected to be a game changing running back from the word go, Elliott lived up to expectations and then some as a rookie. Barring injury, I see no reason why he won’t be among the league’s best running backs again this season.

If Elliott were to get injured, the Cowboys are more than prepared, as they have two backup running backs with starting experience in Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris. When Elliott was drafted, many considered him superfluous because of the running backs the Cowboys already had on the roster. Elliott proved he was the type of talent that would not be superfluous to any team, but the concern made sense, especially given the Cowboys’ pressing needs at other positions like defensive end and cornerback.

Morris and McFadden were limited to 69 and 24 carries last season, but between the two veterans they have 2,448 career carries and 5 seasons of 1000+ rushing yards. Both are getting up there in age, going into their age 29 and age 30 seasons respectively, but both are more than capable backups, especially behind a starter with no injury history and who rarely needs a breather. The Cowboys have arguably the best group of running backs in the NFL and figure to be one of the best rushing offenses in the league once again.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The additions of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott obviously made a huge impact for this offense, but their outstanding offensive line definitely made life much, much easier for both rookies. Unfortunately, the Cowboys did lose 2 starters upfront this off-season, with left guard Ronald Leary signing with the Broncos and right tackle Doug Free retiring after 10 seasons in the league. They were two of a number of starters who left the Cowboys this off-season. Fortunately, their big-3 upfront return, as left tackle Tyron Smith, right guard Zack Martin, and center Travis Frederick are all among the best players in the league at their respective positions, but Leary and Free played at a high level in 2016 and won’t be easy to replace, particularly Leary, who finished 24th among guards on Pro Football Focus.

The Cowboys had an obvious internal replacement for Leary in La’El Collins, who has made 14 starts over the past 2 seasons and opened last year as the starter before going down for the season with a toe injury. Free retiring threw a wrench into that plan though, as Collins is now expected to move to right tackle to replace Free, leaving a huge hole at left guard. Veterans Jonathan Cooper and Byron Bell will compete for the starting job this off-season, though the Cowboys could opt to keep Collins at left guard and start 3rd year offensive tackle Chaz Green at right tackle.

Whichever of those 3 ends up winning a starting job, they figure to struggle in 2017. Cooper was the 7th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, but has been a massive bust throughout his career. Injuries limited Cooper to 11 underwhelming starts in 3 seasons with the Cardinals and he was sent to the Patriots as a throw-in in the Chandler Jones trade. Cooper never played a snap for the Patriots and was cut mid-season. He then went to Cleveland, where he made 3 more underwhelming starts before eventually being cut. Then the Cowboys signed him, putting him on his 4th team in a calendar year. Going into his age 27 season, Cooper may have some untapped upside, but he’s a long shot to ever be a consistent starter in this league.

Bell, meanwhile, is experienced, with 72 starts in the first 5 seasons of his career, but has never graded out above average and missed all of last season with injury. He has experience at both guard and tackle and could be an option at right tackle if they decide they want to keep Collins at left guard. Green would be their other option at right tackle. He was a 3rd round pick in 2015, but missed his entire rookie season with a back injury, struggled in 2 starts in 2016 in place of the injured Tyron Smith, and then needed an additional back procedure this off-season, which he is still working back from. The Cowboys figure to struggle in at least one spot on the offensive line this season.

They may struggle at two if La’El Collins doesn’t turn it around. Collins was a first round talent in 2015, but went undrafted because he was wanted for questioning in his ex-girlfriend’s murder case and didn’t have time to talk to the police and clear his name before the draft, making him untouchable on draft day. Once he was able to talk to the police and it became clear that he had nothing to do with it, he became a very hot commodity as an undrafted free agent and the Cowboys appeared to get a steal, but he was underwhelming in 11 starts as a rookie and then struggled in 3 starts in 2016 before going down for the season with injury. They will need him to take a big step forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2017.

Even if they get poor play at both left guard and right tackle, this should still be one of the best offensive lines in the league because of Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin. First round picks in 2011, 2013, and 2014 respectively, all three are among the best offensive linemen in the league. Smith, the 9th overall pick in 2011, has graded out 3rd, 41st, 7th, 6th, 2nd, and 16th respectively among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in the 6 seasons he’s been in the league (92 starts). Frederick, the 31st overall pick in 2013, has graded out 8th, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd respectively among centers in the 4 seasons he’s been in the league (64 starts). Martin, the 16th overall pick in 2014, has graded out 6th, 4th, and 3rd respectively among guards in the 3 seasons he’s been in the league (48 starts). The Cowboys might not be quite as good upfront as they were last season, but they still have a strong offensive line.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

In addition to the running game and offensive line helping Prescott out immensely, he also got good play from his receiving corps. The Cowboys were led in receiving yards by a surprising player, slot receiver Cole Beasley, who played the 3rd fewest passing snaps of any Dallas receiver. He turned a team high 98 targets into 75 catches for 833 yards and 5 touchdowns. Beasley doesn’t have great athleticism for his size at 5-8 180, but has a knack for getting open underneath, reliable hands, and the quickness to gain some yardage after the catch. The 2012 undrafted free agent has improved his receiving total in all 5 seasons in the league and has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 3 of 5 seasons, including last season, when he finished 13th among wide receivers. He may be just a slot receiver, but the Cowboys get him on the field for most passing plays and Prescott enjoys throwing to him underneath, especially when the running game is setting him up with 2nd and 4, 3rd and 1, etc.

Dez Bryant was expected to lead this team in receiving, but had yet another injury plagued season. It wasn’t as bad as 2015, when he broke his foot week 1, missed 7 games, and was never the same upon his return, limiting him to 31/401/3. However, Bryant missed 3 games with a knee injury that limited him for a bit upon his return and once again had a disappointing slash line of 50/796/8. After topping 1200 yards in 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014, Bryant has failed to top 800 yards in either of the past 2 seasons, since re-signing for 5 years, 70 million two off-seasons ago. Bryant’s conditioning has reportedly not been where the Cowboys would have liked it to be, which could be why he hasn’t been able to stay healthy in the past 2 seasons, after playing all 48 games from 2012-2014. Given how much money they gave him, that’s a significant concern.

The good news is Bryant flashed his old form down the stretch once he got over the knee injury, catching 43 passes for 646 yards and 8 touchdowns on 66 targets in the final 7 real regular season games and Dallas’ playoff loss to Green Bay. Overall on the season, he finished 11th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, actually the 3rd highest ranked season of his 7-year career (he finished 10th and 2nd respectively in 2013 and 2014). If he can stay in shape and stay healthy all season, he could easily have another big statistical year, even on a team that doesn’t pass all that often. That would probably mean fewer balls for Cole Beasley, but it would be a big boost for this passing game overall. Bryant staying healthy is far from a guaranteed, but, going into his age 29 season, he has definite bounce back potential.

With Beasley only playing the slot and Dez Bryant missing time with injury, Terrance Williams actually led the team in passing snaps played, though his 61 targets were significantly fewer than Beasley (98), Bryant (97), and the tight end Jason Witten (95). Williams wasn’t bad, turning those targets into 44 catches for 594 yards and 4 touchdowns and the Cowboys opted to bring him back this off-season on a 4-year, 17 million dollar deal. He will remain as the de facto #2 receiver and the primary outside option opposite Dez Bryant. The 2013 3rd round pick has improved on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons in the league, but still only finished 49th out of 115 eligible last season. He’s a marginal starting receiver and nothing more, but the Cowboys were able to keep him at a fair price.

Williams will continue to only have a small role in the passing game, with Bryant, Williams, and Witten ahead of him for targets on a run heavy offense. Witten is going into his age 35 season though, so it’s fair to wonder how much longer he can keep doing this. A top-9 tight end in every season from 2007-2014, Witten has slipped to 29th and 22nd respectively over the past 2 seasons, but that is still above average. He’s still a good run blocker and turned those 95 targets into 69 catches for 673 yards and 3 touchdowns last season. He’s also as dependable as they come, missing just 1 game in 14 seasons in the league, way back in his rookie year in 2003. He’s the only player in the NFL to play every game in the last 13 seasons. He also finished 2nd among tight ends in snaps played last season with 1018, only behind Carolina’s Greg Olsen. His age is a concern, but he could have another solid season left in the tank.

Because Witten plays so much and because the Cowboys love to use 3-wide receiver sets, especially in passing situations, there wasn’t much available playing time for other tight ends last season, as backups Geoff Swaim and Gavin Escobar played 203 and 170 snaps respectively. With Witten aging, they may give him more breathers this season, freeing up more playing time for reserves. Escobar is no longer with the team, but Swaim will compete with James Hanna, a blocking tight end who missed all of last season with injury, and 2016 6th round pick Rico Gathers for the #2 tight end job behind Witten.

Hanna is probably the favorite for the job because of his experience, but Swaim and Gathers have more long-term upside. Gathers didn’t play a snap as a rookie though and Swaim has played just 227 offensive snaps in 2 seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2015. For what it’s worth, Gathers has drawn strong reviews this off-season and the ex-basketball player is a great athlete for his size, but it’s unclear if he can translate that to an NFL field. As of right now, Witten’s long-term successor doesn’t appear to be on the roster. The Cowboys will need Witten to have at least one more good season for them, which is far from a guarantee at his age. It’s still a solid receiving corps though, especially if Bryant can continue his strong play from down the stretch last season.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While the Cowboys’ offense played at a high level last season, their defense did not and ultimately proved to be their downfall in their 34-31 playoff loss at home to the Packers. Their defensive line was a big part of the problem. Third round rookie defensive tackle Maliek Collins led the line in snaps played last season with 656 and looked overwhelmed, finishing 123rd among 127 eligible interior defenders on Pro Football Focus. He could take a step forward in his 2nd year in the league in 2017, but the Cowboys probably want to avoid giving him that many snaps again.

One obvious thing they could do is give Cedric Thornton more playing time, particularly in base packages where he is best. Signed to a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal last off-season, Thornton played just 278 snaps in his first season in Dallas. He wasn’t bad when he did play, grading out just below average on Pro Football Focus, so it’s unclear why he was in the doghouse all season. Prior to 2016, Thornton was a top-20 3-4 defensive end in 3 straight seasons with the Eagles, excelling against the run. Only going into his age 29 season, he could be better and play more in his second year with the Cowboys. He doesn’t get any pass rush, but, at his best, is a useful base package player.

In addition to Thornton, free agent acquisition Stephen Paea could also eat into Collins snaps. Paea was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle in 2014, but injuries have limited him to 534 snaps in 24 games over the 2 seasons since then. He has still graded out above average in both seasons, showing his abilities in limited action, and could be valuable for the Cowboys in a 400-500 snap role if he can stay healthy. Collins is a better pass rusher than run stopper, so Paea and Thornton could start for the Cowboys in base packages.

Along with Collins, defensive ends Tyrone Crawford and David Irving figure to play significant snaps on the interior in sub packages. Both are bigger ends at 6-4 295 and 6-7 285 respectively who have experience lining up inside in sub packages. Irving was their best defensive lineman last season, finishing 17th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, a surprise breakout year. A 2015 undrafted free agent who the Cowboys signed off of the Chiefs’ practice squad during his rookie year, Irving played 199 uninspiring snaps as a rookie before breaking out on 489 snaps last season. He is still a one-year wonder, so we will have to see if he can replicate that season. Complicating matters is the fact that he might be suspended for the first 4 games of the season for performance enhancing drugs, though he is appealing.

Crawford is also a one-year wonder, but his one year came back in 2014, when he finished 13th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. The 2012 3rd round pick has graded out above average just once in his career and finished last season 60th out of 109 eligible edge defenders on 627 snaps. Now dealing with off-season shoulder surgery, Crawford could continue to be a subpar player in 2017. The 5-year, 45 dollar extension they signed him to following his breakout 2014 season is looking like a big mistake. Given that they have already paid him 17.425 million guaranteed, his contract doesn’t have an easy out until after the 2018 season. The Cowboys need at least one of Crawford or Irving to have a big season rushing the passer from the interior.

Irving and Crawford may also both see time at defensive end, but Demarcus Lawrence and Taco Charlton figure to see the majority of the time at the position, especially in passing situations. Charlton is the Cowboys’ first round pick, 28th overall, and has a chance to play significant snaps early in his career. He will be counted on for an even larger role if Lawrence is not healthy in 2017. Injuries have plagued Lawrence throughout his career. The 2014 2nd round pick played all 16 games in 2015 and finished 18th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, but was limited to 7 games in 2014 and 9 games last season and is now recovering from off-season back surgery. Still only going into his age 25 season, Lawrence could be a big boost to this team if healthy, but that’s a big if. Overall, it’s a deeper defensive line than last season, but they still have major question marks.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Cowboys’ best defensive player is probably outside linebacker Sean Lee, who is one of the best in the league at his position. Injuries limited him to 17 games total during a 3 year stretch from 2012-2014, but he has missed just 3 games over the past 2 seasons and does not appear to be limited by any lingering injuries, finishing 2nd and 1st among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Going into his age 31 season, it’s possible Lee shows some signs of age in 2017 and he’s still always an injury risk, having never played all 16 games in 7 seasons in the league, but he’s still one of the best linebackers in the league.

Anthony Hitchens started all 16 games at middle linebacker last season, but only played 581 snaps because safety Barry Church frequently played linebacker in sub packages last season. Lee, for comparison, played 977 snaps in 1 fewer game as an every down linebacker. Church signed with the Jaguars this off-season, but Hitchens might not need to become a true every down player in 2017 because the Cowboys have a pair of promising young linebackers who will compete for roles. That’s a good thing, because Hitchens has graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league, since going in the 4th round in 2014, including 47th out of 87 eligible linebackers in 2016.

Damien Wilson, a 2015 4th round pick, is one of those promising young linebackers. Also a core special teamer, Wilson flashed on 284 snaps as the third linebacker in 2016 in the first significant action of his career. He could have a bigger role in 2017. The Cowboys also might have 2016 2nd round pick Jaylon Smith coming back from injury, after he missed his entire rookie year. Smith’s rehab has reportedly gone well, but he’s far from a sure thing, considering how brutal of a knee injury he sustained in Notre Dame’s bowl game back in January 2016. Smith will be 20 months removed from the injury by week 1 and could have been a top-10 pick before the injury, so there’s definitely upside here, but it’s possible he’ll never be the same player again. Ideally, he’d takeover every down at middle linebacker and Hitchens would compete with Wilson for the base package outside linebacker job, but most likely all 3 linebackers will see action. Lee elevates this whole group, but there are question marks around him.

Grade: A-

Secondary

Church wasn’t the only safety the Cowboys lost this off-season, as JJ Wilcox signed with the Buccaneers. Church and Wilcox played 675 and 557 snaps respectively last season and finished 11th and 27th respectively among safeties on Pro Football Focus, so they’re big losses. Not only will the Cowboys not be able to use 3-safety looks as often (with one safety in the box as a 2nd linebacker), but they were left with a big hole in the starting lineup at safety next to free safety Byron Jones. Fortunately, Jones is a talented player who finished 19th among safeties in 2016 and 23rd among cornerbacks as a rookie in 2015. The 27th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, Jones is only going into his age 25 season and has a very bright future.

Career special teamer Jeff Heath will be given the first crack at the other safety job. The 2013 undrafted free agent flashed on 243 snaps as a reserve last season, but graded out below average in the first 3 seasons of his career and only has 10 starts in 4 seasons in the league. Youngsters Kavon Frazier, a 2016 6th round pick who played just 37 snaps as a rookie, and Xavier Woods, a 5th round rookie, are also in the mix. Free agent Robert Blanton has the most experience of any candidate for the job, with 19 career starts. Thirteen of those starts came in 2014 when he finished 17th among safeties on Pro Football Focus, but he has finished below average in both seasons since. Only going into his age 28 season, the 2012 5th round pick has bounce back potential and is probably their best option, but only by default. It’s definitely a position of weakness for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys also lost a pair of cornerbacks in free agency too, with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne signing with the Ravens and Jets respectively. They played 1015 and 406 snaps respectively last season, so they leave behind big roles. They also played at a high level too, finishing 50th and 12th respectively among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, though Claiborne was limited to 7 games by injury. Free agent acquisition Nolan Carroll will probably get the first crack at replacing Carr. Carroll has made 50 starts in the past 5 seasons and was a solid starter from 2013-2015, but fell to 91st out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus last season and now is going into his age 30 season. He’s a low end starter at best.

Carroll will be pushed by second round rookie Chidobe Awuzie for a starting role. The Cowboys also used a 3rd round pick and a 6th round pick on cornerbacks, taking Jourdan Lewis and Marquez White. White is a long-term project, but Lewis is an NFL ready nickel cornerback and could be one of the steals of the draft, despite his underwhelming size at 5-10 188. Pro Football Focus ranked him as their 24th ranked draft prospect. Holdovers Anthony Brown and Orlando Scandrick will also be in the mix for roles.

Scandrick was probably their best cornerback last season, but the Cowboys are reportedly trying to trade him so they can keep all their rookie cornerbacks on the roster. Scandrick is owed just 3 million dollars this season and finished last season 27th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Scandrick missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL, but graded out above average in 4 of the previous 5 seasons before the injury, including a 10th place finish in 2014. He did miss another 4 games last season and he is going into his age 30 season, but he still seems worth keeping around at his salary.

Brown, meanwhile, was a surprise as a 6th round rookie in 2016, making 10 starts in 16 games in the absence of Morris Claiborne and Orlando Scandrick and finishing above average on Pro Football Focus on 717 snaps. He has a good chance to play a big role again this season, though I’m still skeptical that he can continue playing as well as he did last season. Given that and that they lost four key players in free agency, I expect the Cowboys’ secondary to take a step back this season, but they did bring in some replacements with potential and may be able to patchwork together a decent unit.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Cowboys lost starters on the offensive line and in the secondary, but did a good job of patchworking some holes this off-season with cheap signings and more good drafting. They should be better in the front 7 and they still have obvious talent on offense. There is some potential for sophomore slumps from Prescott or Ezekiel Elliott, especially if the offensive line doesn’t play as well, but they could also get a vintage year from Dez Bryant, giving this offense the downfield threat it didn’t have last season until the final few games. Their schedule will be tougher this season, but they should still compete for the NFC East title and a playoff spot. 

Final update: The Cowboys could be without Ezekiel Elliot for the first 6 games of the season, though it’s looking likely that he’ll see his suspension reduced or thrown out. It’s another reason why this team is unlikely to be quite as good as last year (as is a 4 game suspension by David Irving), but this should be a playoff team again in 2017, even in the tough NFC.

Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

The Eagles made an aggressive move up the draft board to grab a quarterback in 2016, sending useful defenders Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell to the Dolphins to move up from 13 to 8 and then sending #8, #77, #100, a 2017 1st rounder, and a 2018 2nd rounder to the Browns for #2, where they grabbed North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles eventually recouped a first round pick when they sent quarterback Sam Bradford, originally expected to be a veteran stopgap starter in 2016, to the Vikings for their first round pick, following the season ending injury to Minnesota starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

As a result of the Bradford trade, Wentz surprisingly made all 16 starts as a rookie and looked better than many expected, considering he was transitioning from the Division 1-AA. His overall numbers don’t look great, as he completed 62.4% of his passes for an average of 6.23 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, but a lot of that is because he was throwing to arguably the worst receiving corps in the league. He finished the season 21st out of 34 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, unspectacular, but ahead of highly paid veterans like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco.

That’s pretty impressive considering he was a rookie coming from a small school and had to throw 607 times, just the 2nd time a rookie quarterback has thrown 600+ passes in NFL history (Andrew Luck threw 627 times with the Colts in 2012). Going into his 2nd year in the league, Wentz is expected to take another step forward and could easily be a top-15 quarterback by season’s end. He’s still young and inexperienced, but he’s plenty talented and has already exceeded expectations.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

In order to assist Wentz with his development, the Eagles made an obvious effort to improve his receiving corps this off-season. As I mentioned, their receiving corps might have been the worst in the league last season. Wide receiver Jordan Matthews (73/804/3) and tight end Zach Ertz (78/816/4) were reliable targets in the passing game, but passing down back Darren Sproles (52/427/2) was 3rd on the team in receiving yards, as wide receivers Dorial Green-Beckham (36/392/2) and Nelson Agholor (36/365/2) both struggled mightily.

The Eagles added 4 wide receivers this off-season, free agents Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith and draft prospects Mack Hollins (4th round) and Shelton Gibson (5th round). Hollins and Gibson aren’t candidate for real playing time this season, but Jeffery and Smith certainly are. Along with Matthews, those are going to be the Eagles’ top-3 wide receivers this year, while Hollins and Gibson will force Agholor and Green-Beckham to compete for the final roster spot at wide receiver, assuming they even keep 6 receivers. Agholor was a 1st round pick by the Eagles in 2015, which should help him keep his roster spot, but he hasn’t done anything in 2 years in the league (59 catches in 28 games) and was briefly benched down the stretch last season. He won’t be any higher than 4th or 5th on the depth chart.

Jeffery will probably be Wentz’ new favorite target and their #1 receiver this year. The ex-Bear, Jeffery is as good as any receiver in the league when he’s at his best, but has been limited by injury, suspension, and poor quarterback play over the past 2 seasons and has reportedly has durability and work ethic issues. These issues actually date back to his college days, which is why he fell to the 2nd round in 2012 and why he had to settle for just an incentive heavy one-year deal this off-season. Jeffery will make just 9.5 million this season in base salary, but could earn up to 14 million if he reaches certain milestones. It’s a win, win deal for the Eagles.

Jeffery has been a top-33 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus for 4 straight seasons. His best overall statistical season came in 2013, when he caught 89 passes for 1421 yards and 7 touchdowns and finished 9th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but his best season on a per snap basis came in 2015, when he finished 3rd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and averaged 89.67 yards per game. However, he missed 7 games with nagging hamstring injuries that season, which the Bears felt stemmed from his poor conditioning, and then last season he missed 4 games with suspension after failing a drug test. A change of scenery could be good for him. Still only in his age 27 season, he should still be in the prime of his career.

Fellow free agent acquisition Torrey Smith will compete with Jordan Matthews for snaps opposite Jeffery. Matthews is a better receiver, but he’s best on the slot catching underneath passes, while Torrey Smith is a true downfield receiving threat, something this offense has lacked since losing DeSean Jackson after the 2013 season. Smith is not a volume catcher though, with just 266 catches in 6 seasons in the league. Even worse, just 53 of those catches came in the last 2 seasons.

Because he is a one trick pony (17.00 yards per catch in his career), he was incredibly miscast with the San Francisco 49ers, who didn’t have the stability at quarterback or on the offensive line to take many deep shots downfield. He also may have quit on a 2-14 team last season, catching 20 passes in 12 games and finishing 114th out of 115 eligible wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Prior to San Francisco, Smith graded out around average in 4 seasons with the Baltimore Ravens. Only going into his age 28 season, he has bounce back potential in a better offense with the Eagles. He could prove to be a steal on a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal.

Matthews should also remain involved in the offense and is better as a complementary player than a #1 guy. A 2014 2nd round pick, Matthews has 225 career catches, but has never finished higher than 55th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and has a career 11.88 yards per catch average. His 11.01 yards per catch average in 2015 was highest on the team among anyone with 10 catches or more, which just shows you how badly the Eagles needed a deep threat. Matthews will probably see fewer balls this season, after a 117-target season a year ago (28th in the NFL).

Tight end Zach Ertz is also a reliable receiver, though he’s more of an underneath option too. The 2013 2nd round pick has finished in the top-18 among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons in the league, with his best season coming in 2015, when he finished 4th among tight ends. Last season, he struggled a bit as a run blocker, but caught 78 passes for 816 yards and 4 touchdowns (all team highs) on 106 targets. Like Matthews, he too may see fewer balls this season, but he should still be a big part of this offense once again, especially if he can bounce back as a run blocker.

The Eagles also have good depth at the tight end position, as both Brent Celek and Trey Burton will play roles on this offense again this season, after playing 442 and 327 snaps respectively in 2016. Celek is an experienced veteran who has made 122 starts in 159 of a possible 160 games in 10 seasons in the league, all with the Eagles. However, he is going into his age 32 season and is not the same player anymore, grading out below average last season for the first time since 2007. The big 6-4 261 pounder isn’t much more than a blocker at this stage of his career, catching just 14 passes in 2016. Burton, meanwhile, caught 37 passes on 60 targets for 327 yards last season and graded out above average (29th among tight ends) for the first time in his career. The 2014 undrafted free agent could have a bigger role this season at Celek’s expense. The Eagles suddenly have a pretty deep receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Wentz likely taking a step forward and an improved receiving corps are two reasons things are looking up for this offense. In addition to that, they also get stud offensive tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, after he missed a 10-game chunk of time in 2016. In the 6 games Johnson played (the first 4 and the last 2), the Eagles went 5-1, as opposed to 2-8 in their other 10 games. Of those 8 losses, 5 of them came by a touchdown or less, so they could have easily won another 2-3 games if Johnson were available all season.

Overall, they went 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so they were better than their 7-9 final record suggested. They finished with a +36 point differential, ahead of 5 playoff teams, including the 12-4 Oakland Raiders, and they beat four playoff teams: the Falcons (24-15), Giants (24-19), Steelers (34-3), and the Cowboys (27-13).. They won’t have to play that much better to get a few more wins this season and they should be significantly improved on the offensive side of the ball.

Johnson finished as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked offensive tackle in the 6 games he played. That was a career best rank and it’s the type of player the Eagles envisioned him being when they drafted him 4th overall in 2013. Prior to 2016, Johnson was a top-15 offensive tackle in both 2014 and 2015, so he’s not a one-year wonder either. Still only going into his age 27 season, Johnson could have the best season of his career in 2017 if he can avoid suspension and stay on the field. Johnson has already been suspended twice for performance enhancing drugs, but is suing the league to get the last suspension off his record, alleging the league acted improperly in informing him that the substance he was taking had been banned by the league. If that suspension is not overturned, he would be facing at least a yearlong suspension if he fails another test.

Johnson was originally drafted to be the long-term left tackle, but has spent 4 seasons at right tackle thus far because veteran left tackle Jason Peters has continued to play at a high level. Peters is now going into his age 35 season, but was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked offensive tackle last season, so Johnson will stay on the right side in 2017. Peters has been a top-14 offensive tackle in his last 6 healthy seasons. At his age, it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep this up, as his abilities could fall off a cliff quickly at any point, but he could have another good season on the blindside.

Johnson was signed to a 5-year, 56.25 million dollar extension last off-season, which makes him the 10th highest paid offensive tackle in the league in average annual salary and the highest paid right tackle in the league. He’s being paid like a left tackle, so the Eagles are basically paying for two left tackles, but they also have arguably the best tackle duo in the NFL, so it might be worth it. Peters will make 10.7 million in the third season of a 4-year, 41.3 million dollar extension this season. Peters could opt to retire after the final year of his deal in 2018.

Along with arguably the best tackle duo in the league, the Eagles also have one of the better right guards in the league, ex-Texan Brandon Brooks, who they signed to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. Brooks had a bit of a down year in the final year of his rookie deal with Houston in 2015, finishing 37th among guards on Pro Football Focus, but leaped back up to 4th in 2016. That’s in line with how he played in 2013 and 2014, when he finished 8th and 10th respectively among guards. The 2012 3rd round pick has made 58 of a possible 64 starts in the last 4 seasons and, still only going into his age 28 season, should continue playing at a high level in 2017.  

In addition to those 3 high level players, the Eagles also have 4 starting caliber players competing for the final 2 starting spots at left guard and center. Center Jason Kelce has made 60 of a possible 64 starts over the past 4 seasons, but is coming off of easily his worst season to date, finishing 27th among 38 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. Kelce was a top-8 center in each of the previous 3 seasons and, still only going into his age 30 season, is a definite bounce back candidate in 2017, but there’s talk the Eagles could trade him for a future mid round pick before the start of the season. That would save the Eagles Kelce’s 5 million salary for 2017 and free up the center position for either veteran Stefen Wisniewski or 2nd year pick Isaac Seumalo.

Wisniewski and Seumalo are also candidates at left guard. Allen Barbre, who played both left guard and right tackle last season, is penciled in as the starting left guard. He finished 23rd among guards on Pro Football Focus last season, but is going into his age 33 season and is a one-year wonder, so the Eagles are rightfully concerned about whether or not he can continue that kind of play in 2017. Prior to 2016, Barbre had just 24 career starts in 10 seasons in the league and had graded out above average in just 1 of those seasons.

Even though he only started 6 games in 2016, Stefen Wisniewski is much more experienced than Barbre, as he was a starter for the first 5 seasons of his career, making 77 starts between left guard and center. He’s better at center than guard, but has graded out around average in all 6 seasons in his career, including 39th out of 72 eligible guards last season in 6 starts. Seumalo, meanwhile, only saw 336 snaps as a rookie, but played pretty well and the Eagles like how he has been developing as a prospect. They see the 2016 3rd rounder as a future starter, but don’t have an obvious place for him to start right now. Of course, having too much depth is a pretty good problem to have upfront. If Johnson can stay on the field all season and/or Jason Kelce can bounce back, that should push this offensive line from good to great in 2017.

Grade: A

Running Backs

While the Eagles did a good job of adding talent at the wide receiver position, they didn’t do much to address the running back position, where they also needed help. They did add a couple new players though. They used a 4th round pick on San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey and signed veteran LeGarrette Blount to replace Ryan Mathews, who led the team with 155 carries for 661 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. Mathews was not worth the 4 million dollar non-guaranteed salary he would have been owed this season if he had not been cut. Blount comes at about half the price.

Mathews might be the better overall back, but Blount is a better pure runner and much more durable than Mathews. Blount offers nothing in the passing game, with 46 catches in 7 seasons in the league, but has a career 4.39 YPC average and has graded out above average in pure running grade on Pro Football Focus 5 times in 7 seasons. Blount saw a career high 299 carries last season, but averaged just 3.88 YPC, the 2nd lowest season average of his career, and finished below average on Pro Football Focus. Going into his age 31 season, Blount is probably on the decline, but could be a valuable early down back for them on about 150-200 carries.

Blount is a good fit in Philadelphia because the Eagles have Darren Sproles to handle passing downs. Sproles has never topped 100 carries in 12 seasons in the league, but has averaged about 70.63 carries per season and 60.38 catches per season over the past 8 seasons, while missing just 6 total games with injury over that time period. Last season, he finished 37th out of 62 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus, which is decent. His age is a concern, as he goes into his age 34 season, but, because he’s basically a receiver, he’s aged more like a wide receiver than a running back. He led this backfield with 511 snaps last season and has a good chance to do again in 2017. The addition of Blount doesn’t affect his role in the slightest because they are polar opposite players.

Pumphrey, meanwhile, is the all-time leading rusher in NCAA history, but, at 5-9 175, he isn’t anything more than a long-term replacement for Sproles, so Pumphrey could end up having what amounts to a redshirt rookie year in 2017. Last year’s 5th round pick Wendell Smallwood will probably back up both Sproles and Blount. He averaged 4.05 yards per carry on 77 carries as a rookie. His chances for a bigger role in 2017 took a big hit when Blount was added. There is some talent here and the pieces fit together well, but this is still an underwhelming backfield.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

With the offense struggling at the skill positions in 2016, the Eagles’ defense was their best unit, finishing the season 10th in first down rate allowed, while the offense ranked 21st in first down rate. Their defense was led by their two stud defensive linemen: defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Brandon Graham. Cox is one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL. After finishing in the top-5 among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in both 2014 and 2015, Cox showed his scheme versatility, finishing 4th among defensive tackles in 2016. The 2012 first round pick has finished in the top-19 at his position in all 5 seasons in the league, missing just 1 total game with injury, and is in the middle of the prime of his career, going into his age 27 season.

Graham is also in the prime of his career and one of the best players in the league at his position. He’s never put up high sack numbers, but part of that is because he didn’t become an every down player until 2015 and part of that is because he’s much more of a disruptor than a finisher in the backfield. Graham is among the league leaders in quarterback pressures over the past 2 seasons and has finished 9th and 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2015 and 2016 respectively. He also plays the run well. Even before 2015, Graham was still one of the most efficient pass rushers in the league from 2012-2014. Going into his age 29 season, having played 80 of a possible 80 games over the past 5 seasons, I see no reason that wouldn’t continue in 2017.

Connor Barwin and Bennie Logan were the other two starters on the defensive line last season and both are gone now. Both were better fits for the Eagles’ old 3-4 defense than their new 4-3 defense though and struggled as a result of the scheme change, so neither will be missed that much. The Eagles basically let them go, allowing Logan to take a 1-year, 8 million dollar deal with the Chiefs and cutting Barwin, rather than paying him his 7.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2017.

Barwin will be replaced with first round pick Derek Barnett, who was the most efficient pass rusher in college football last season, even ahead of #1 overall pick Myles Garrett. He doesn’t have Garrett’s athleticism, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked prospect overall and could prove to be a steal at #14 overall. He has been compared to his new teammate Brandon Graham due to his motor and his ability to get to the quarterback with a strong bull rush, which make up for his average athleticism.

Logan, meanwhile, will be replaced with Timmy Jernigan, who the Eagles acquired from the Ravens in exchange for moving down 25 spots in the third round. Jernigan was going into the final year of his rookie deal and the Ravens clearly didn’t want to pay him what he wanted to re-sign, but it’s still weird that they moved him so cheaply, considering he’s graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league. Even though he played 3-4 end with Baltimore, the 2014 2nd round pick is a better fit at defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense than Logan was, so he should be an upgrade. Primarily a rotational player prior to last season, Jernigan played a career high 631 snaps last season and made 15 starts in 16 games. If he continues to play at a high level, he could sign for more money somewhere else next off-season. The Eagles drafted Washington defensive tackle Elijah Qualls in the 6th round of the draft as insurance.

Jernigan probably won’t play much more than 600 snaps with the Eagles in 2017 (Logan played 467 snaps last season). That’s because he will be playing primarily a base package role, as the Eagles like to line up defensive end Vinny Curry up at defensive tackle in sub packages. Curry will also provide depth at defensive end, as well veteran free agent acquisition Chris Long. A 2012 2nd round pick, Curry was re-signed to a 5-year, 47.25 million dollar deal last off-season and was expected to play a big role in his first season in a 4-3 defense in 2016, but instead only played 435 snaps.

Those 435 snaps were a career high and he played well once again, finishing 19th among 4-3 defensive ends, the 4th straight season he finished above average, but he wasn’t worth what the Eagles paid him given how small of a role he played. Given how deep the Eagles are on the defensive line, I would be surprised if he played much more than 500 snaps in 2017. Long, meanwhile, signed with the Eagles instead of re-signing with the Patriots this off-season because he was unhappy with his playing time in New England (677 snaps in the regular season, but just 62 in 3 playoff games), but he won’t play much more than 300-400 snaps with the Eagles now that they’ve drafted Barnett. Long isn’t the same player he once was, going into his age 32 season, but is still a good backup. This is a very deep defensive line.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Eagles also got great play from two linebackers in 2016, including breakout star middle linebacker Jordan Hicks. Just a 3rd round pick in 2015, Hicks flashed as a rookie on 459 snaps in 8 games, but had his rookie season cut short by a torn pectoral. Hicks picked up right where he left off in his 2nd year in the league in 2016 though, finishing 5th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus and, more importantly, staying healthy for all 16 games. Going into his 3rd year in the league, his best football might be still ahead of him.

Outside linebacker Nigel Bradham also had a great year, finishing 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Bradham had shown top level ability before, as the 2012 4th round pick flashed in limited action in the first 2 seasons of his career and then finished 13th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014, before plummeting to 81st out of 97 eligible linebackers in his contract year in 2015. As a result, the ex-Buffalo Bill had to settle for a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with the Eagles, where he reunited with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who Bradham played under with the Bills in 2014. Reuniting with Schwartz seemed to make a big difference and now Bradham is arguably the best value of any veteran in the league contract wise. He should be a big part of this Philadelphia defense again in 2017.

Conversely, fellow linebacker Mychal Kendricks has one of the worst contracts in the NFL. Signed to a 4-year, 29 million dollar extension following a 2014 breakout year, in which he finished 6th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus, Kendricks hasn’t been nearly the same since. He fell to 60th out of 97 eligible linebackers in 2015 and then things got even worse for him when Schwartz came in and implemented a 4-3 defense, which Kendricks doesn’t fit at all. Kendricks played just 273 snaps as the 3rd linebacker last season, only playing in base packages.

He played the run well, which is all you really need to do in that role, but he wasn’t worth the 8 million dollar signing bonus they gave him or his 3 million dollar salary in 2016. This season, he is scheduled to make a guaranteed 5 million, so the Eagles are desperately trying to trade him. They are unlikely to find someone willing to pay him his salary though, so the Eagles will be stuck with him for another year and will have effectively flushed 16 million dollars down the toilet. He will undoubtedly be cut next off-season, ahead of a non-guaranteed 6 million dollar salary he would be owed in 2018. The Eagles drafted Nathan Gerry in the 5th round as a potential long-term replacement. It’s overall a talented linebacking corps.

Grade: A

Secondary

As you can see, the Eagles have a pretty talented front 7, one that could be even better this season with Barnett and Jernigan replacing Barwin and Logan. That’s much needed because the Eagles had arguably the worst group of cornerbacks in the league last season, much in the same way they had arguably the worst group of wide receivers in the league last season. Unlike the wide receiver position, where the Eagles made multiple upgrades this off-season, they did not really get any better at the cornerback position. In fact, they might have gotten worse, as their two best cornerbacks last season were Nolan Carroll and Leodis McKelvin and neither is with the team anymore.

Carroll and McKelvin finished last season 91st and 70th respectively among cornerbacks out of 111 eligible, which isn’t great, but they were better than Jalen Mills, who remains with the team, and they didn’t really replace them. They signed veteran Patrick Robinson in free agency and he will likely start opposite Mills, but he’s a pretty mediocre player. They also drafted Washington cornerback Sidney Jones in the 2nd round of the draft, but he could miss his entire rookie year with a torn achilles. Jones likely would have been a top-15 pick if not for the injury and could still return to play down the stretch, but he likely wouldn’t be at 100%. Not only would he be coming off of a significant injury, but he also will miss the entire off-season, which is so valuable for rookies. Jones could end up as the draft class’ best cornerback when all is said and done, but I don’t expect him to be much of a factor in 2017.

That leaves Robinson and Mills as probably the worst starting cornerback duo in the league, with next to no depth behind them. Mills finished last season as Pro Football Focus’ lowest ranked cornerback, which is no surprise, considering he was a mere 7th round rookie. The Eagles like him for some reason, but I’d be surprised if they got good play for him this season. Robinson, meanwhile, was a little bit better last season, but not much, finishing 93rd out of 111 eligible, behind both Carroll and McKelvin. Robinson has had solid seasons in 2011, 2014, and 2015, but has graded out below average in 4 of 7 seasons in the league and now is going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He wouldn’t be starting for most teams, but could be the de facto #1 cornerback in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, Ron Brooks will compete with hybrid cornerback/safety Jaylen Watkins, and 3rd round rookie Rasul Douglas for the #3 cornerback job. None of them are good options. Brooks struggled mightily on 235 snaps in 6 games last season, before going down for the season with a torn quad. Prior to last season, Brooks had been primarily a special teamer, making 3 career starts in 4 seasons in the league. Watkins can play both cornerback and safety, as can starting safety Malcolm Jenkins, so the Eagles might use more 3-safety looks in 2017. Watkins was alright on a career high 387 snaps as the dime back last season, but is a very unproven player. Douglas, meanwhile, is very raw coming out of West Virginia. Cornerback will remain a problem position for this team until Sidney Jones can get back to 100%.

The Eagles will have to continue to mask their issues at cornerback with strong play in the front 7 and at safety, where Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod are one of the better safety duos in the NFL. McLeod has made all 64 starts over the past 4 seasons and has graded out above average in the last 3 seasons, including a season in 2015 in which he finished 10th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Last season, he finished 36th. Jenkins, meanwhile, has ranked 19th, 2nd, and 28th in 3 seasons in Philadelphia, after an inconsistent tenure in New Orleans to start his career. Jenkins’ age is a bit of a concern as he goes into his age 30 season, but McLeod will only be 27 this season and they should both have solid seasons again, at the very least. They somewhat make up for Philadelphia’s terrible cornerbacks.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Eagles were 7-9 last season, but could have easily won 8-10 games, given how many close games they lost. This season, with Lane Johnson back from suspension, Carson Wentz going into his 2nd year in the league, and an improved receiving corps and defensive line, they have a good chance to make a big jump in win total. Looking up and down their roster, they have one of the best in the league. Whether or not they’ll be a real Super Bowl contender is going to depend on how Carson Wentz develops, but the Eagles should be able to challenge the Cowboys, who lost several starters in free agency, for the NFC East. 

Final update: The Eagles filled their biggest hole when they acquired cornerback Ronald Darby from the Bills in a trade that sent slot receiver Jordan Matthews and a 3rd round pick to Buffalo. This is one of the most talented teams in the league and a Super Bowl contender if Carson Wentz can take a step forward in his 2nd season in the league.

Prediction: 11-5, 1st in NFC East

New York Giants 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

The Giants made the playoffs in 2016, for the first time since the 2011 season, but had their worst offensive season in a while, moving the chains at a mere 31.53% rate, 29th in the NFL. They won 11 games and made the playoffs on the strength of a defense that ranked #1 in first down rate allowed at 30.41%. That came after they ranked 12th in first down rate and 29th in first down rate allowed in a 6-10 season in 2015. Given all the money they spent last off-season on defense, it was not a surprise that they were significantly improved on that side of the ball, but I don’t think anyone thought they would be as good as they ended up being in 2016. Likewise, few expected their offense to drop off like it did.

The biggest reason why they struggled offensively was the play of quarterback Eli Manning, who finished 27th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks, his lowest ranked season in Pro Football Focus’ 10 year history. He completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Manning’s disappointing season came as somewhat of a surprise, considering the Giants promoted offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo to head coach to replace long-time head coach Tom Coughlin. McAdoo was credited was revitalizing Manning’s career, following a terrible 2013 season, and was promoted with Manning’s long-term success in mind.

However, Manning is no spring chicken anymore, going into his age 36 season, so age is probably catching up with him. He could bounce back somewhat in 2017, but we seem to be nearing the end of Eli’s tenure as a starting quarterback. With this in mind, the Giants used a 3rd round pick on California’s Davis Webb, who could potentially develop into a long-term starter. Webb is regarded as very raw though and will probably spend his entire rookie year as the 3rd quarterback, behind Manning and veteran backup Geno Smith.

Given that, Manning’s job is probably safe for at least 2017, as Smith hasn’t proven himself to be anything more than a backup thus far in his career. The 2013 2nd round pick has made 30 starts in 4 years in the league, but has completed just 57.9% of his passes for an average of 6.73 yards per attempt, 28 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in his career. If he has to start for an extended period in 2017, the Giants are going to be in trouble. Fortunately, Eli hasn’t missed a start since he took over as a starter way back in his rookie year in 2004, but, given his age, it’s fair to wonder how long that streak can continue. Even if he does play all 16 games again in 2017, the Giants are still not in a great situation quarterback-wise.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

All that being said, it’s unfair to put all of the blame for the Giants’ offensive struggles in 2016 on the quarterback, as they had major issues around the quarterback position. Because they spent all that money on their defense last off-season, they didn’t have any left over to fix glaring holes on offense and those holes got even more glaring in 2016 with Eli not playing at a high enough level to mask them. With little financial flexibility this off-season, the Giants had to turn to the draft to address offensive needs. They used 3 of their first 4 picks on offensive players (including Davis Webb), but did not get around to addressing the offensive line until the 6th round, when they drafted Pittsburgh’s Adam Bisnowaty, who isn’t a serious candidate for playing time as a rookie.

The right side of the offensive line is the problem side for the Giants, but ideally they would have found a new left tackle this off-season and moved Ereck Flowers to the right side, where he would probably be a better fit, upgrading two spots at once. They didn’t do that, so they will have to hope that Flowers can be much improved at left tackle in his 3rd year in the league in 2017. It’s certainly a possibility, given that Flowers was the 9th overall pick in 2015 and is just going into his age 23 season, but Flowers has looked overmatched in 2 seasons (31 starts) on the blindside, finishing 74th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles in 2015 and 57th out of 78 eligible offensive tackles in 2016. He could easily take another step forward in 2017, but many considered the 6-5 324 pounder to be a better fit on the right side coming out of the University of Miami and he may end up there long-term.

For now, incumbent starter Bobby Hart and free agent acquisition DJ Fluker will compete for the starting job on the right side. Hart made 13 starts in 2016, but was easily the Giants’ worst offensive lineman, finishing 67th out of 78 eligible offensive tackles on the season. The 2015 7th round pick also struggled on 151 snaps as a rookie. Also only going into his age 23 season, he’s young enough to be noticeably improved in 2017, but he is a much shakier bet than Flowers. He doesn’t nearly have Flowers’ natural abilities, hence why he fell to the 7th round and Flowers went 9th overall.

Given that, Fluker would probably be the better option, though Hart will open the off-season as the starter. The 11th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Fluker was similar to Flowers coming out of the University of Alabama. He began his career at right tackle, where he was serviceable, but unspectacular in his first 2 seasons in the league. When the Chargers signed veteran Joe Barksdale, they shifted Fluker inside to guard, where he was not a fit at all, finishing 67th out of 81 eligible guards in 2015 and 54th out of 72 eligible guards in 2016. A move back to right tackle could be good for him and he should be an upgrade over Hart if he does win the job.

Fluker is also a candidate at right guard, but he would have to unseat John Jerry, who is coming off of a solid year, finishing 33rd out of 72 eligible guards. That’s the first time in 7 seasons (83 starts) in the league that he’s graded out above average though and, already going into his age 31 season, he’s unlikely to be that good again in 2017. In 2015, he finished 56th out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. Jerry would be better than Fluker though, as Fluker has already proven he is not a fit at guard.

Left guard Justin Pugh and center Weston Richburg were the saving graces of this offensive line in 2016, though neither was as good as they were in 2015. After they finished 9th among guards and 3rd among centers respectively in 2015, they “fell” to 16th and 16th respectively in 2016, with Pugh also missing 5 games with injury. Prior to their strong 2015 seasons, both players played different positions and were not nearly as good, as Pugh was about a league average starting right tackle in the first 2 seasons of his career, while Richburg was one of the lowest ranked guards in the league in his first year in the league in 2014. Both players should have solid years again in 2017, but both are also going in the final year of their rookie contracts, so the Giants will have some decisions to make soon. Considering they are easily their best two offensive linemen, the Giants should try to re-sign both, but the numbers might just not work out.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

In addition to struggling on the offensive line last season, the Giants also couldn’t run the ball, averaging just 3.55 yards per carry, 3rd worst in the NFL. Part of that was the offensive line, but the backs running the ball were a big part of the problem too. The Giants cut veteran running back Rashad Jennings this off-season, which should be addition by subtraction, as he averaged just 3.28 yards per carry on 181 carries and finished just 58th out of 62 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately, the Giants didn’t do much addition by addition, just adding Clemson running back Wayne Gallman in the 4th round of the draft. He is no guarantee to be an upgrade on Jennings.

Gallman does have more upside though and probably won’t see as many carries as Jennings did last season, as the Giants will be giving 2nd year running back Paul Perkins a larger role. A steal in the 5th round in 2016, Perkins averaged a solid 4.07 YPC average on 112 carries as a rookie and saw a larger role down the stretch, carrying the ball 62 times in the final 4 weeks of the regular season and 10 times in the Giants’ first round playoff loss in Green Bay. He has some breakout potential in his 2nd year in the league and, at the very least, he should be an upgrade over Jennings. Perkins is a smaller back at 5-10 208 though, so the bigger Gallman (6-0 215) could see short yardage work and vulture touchdowns on the goal line. Gallman will have a change of pace role.

Along with Perkins and Gallman, the Giants also have veteran Shane Vereen coming back from injury, after two separate torn triceps injuries limited him to just 5 games in 2016. Vereen isn’t a threat for many carries, as the 6-year veteran has never made more than 96 carries in a season, but he caught 158 passes in 40 games from 2013-2015 with the Patriots and Giants. If healthy, he should be their primary passing down back, but injuries have always been a concern with him. He’s been limited to 63 of a possible 96 games in his career. Still, he should be able to give them more than he gave them last year and, between that and Jennings being released, this should be an improved running back group in 2017. There is still a lot of uncertainty at the position though.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

While the Giants didn’t do much to upgrade the offensive line or the running game, they did upgrade the receiving corps. Odell Beckham is obviously one of the best receivers in the game, but they didn’t have another receiver with more than 683 receiving yards last season, so they would have been in trouble if Beckham were to ever get hurt. To give themselves insurance, the cut the struggling Victor Cruz and replaced him with ex-Jet Brandon Marshall and used a first round pick on Mississippi tight end Evan Engram.

Despite being a tight end, Engram is actually similar in size to Brandon Marshall. While Marshall is one of the biggest wide receivers in the league at 6-4 230, Engram is one of the smallest tight ends ever drafted at 6-3 234. More of a big slot receiver than an inline tight end, Engram moves like a wide receiver and set the combine on fire with his 4.42 40. He won’t contribute much as a run blocker, but he will be a matchup nightmare in the passing game. He will be an instant upgrade over incumbent starter Will Tye, who was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd lowest ranked eligible tight end in 2016. Tye will compete with 2016 6th round pick Jerell Adams for the #2 tight end job. Adams struggled on 204 snaps as a rookie. Whoever wins the job, the #2 tight end role is small in this offense because of how often they line up with 3 wide receivers.

Victor Cruz was the Giants’ 3rd receiver in 2016 and played 766 snaps in that role, about 72.2% of the Giants offensive snaps. Brandon Marshall will probably be the #2 receiver this year, moving last year’s #2 wide receiver Sterling Shepard to the #3 role, but all three of Beckham, Marshall, and Shepard will get significant playing time. Shepard may be better in the #3 role because the 2016 2nd round pick is best as a pure slot receiver. Shepard was about a league average starter in his first season in the league and could be even better in his 2nd year in the league in a more natural role.

Marshall, meanwhile, should be a lot better than Victor Cruz, who was clearly not the same player as he once was in 2016, his first season back from a 2014 torn patellar tendon. Cruz finished 99th out of 115 eligible wide receivers and was subsequently cut and remains unsigned as a free agent, ahead of his age 31 season. Marshall was also cut, but saw a much more robust market for his services, signing with the Giants on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. Marshall is going into his age 33 season and not the same player as he once was, finishing with fewer than 1000 yards in 2 of the last 3 seasons, after going over 1000 yards in every season from 2007-2013. He finished last season ranked below average for the first time in Pro Football Focus’ 10-year history. However, in 2015, he had one of the best statistical seasons of his career and finished 16th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, so he’s probably not completely washed up. Even if he plays like he did in 2016, he’ll still be an upgrade over Cruz.

Marshall will play outside opposite Beckham, who, as I already mentioned, is one of the best receivers in the league. He hasn’t been as efficient as he was as a rookie, when he caught 91 passes for 1305 yards and 12 touchdowns on 132 targets in 12 games and finished 4th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but he has been a top-12 wide receiver in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league. The 12th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, Beckham has already caught 288 passes for 4,122 yards and 35 touchdowns on 460 targets in 3 seasons in the league. Only going into his age 25 season, his best football could still be ahead of him. He has two years left on his rookie deal, but expect the Giants to make him the highest paid wide receiver in the league sometime in the next calendar year. He’s easily their most important offensive player.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Giants spent a lot of money on defensive players last off-season and it paid off in a big way. Two of the big contracts they handed out were to defensive end Olivier Vernon and defensive tackle Damon Harrison, who signed 5-year deals worth 85 million and 46.25 million respectively. This off-season, they re-signed their other starting defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul on a 4-year, 62 million dollar deal. Unfortunately, not only did all their highly paid defensive players make it tough to address needs on the offensive side of the ball this off-season, but it also made it tough for the Giants to add needed depth on defense and it caused them to lose defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins to the Colts on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal.

The Giants are very top-heavy salary wise, with 7 players combining to take up 86.521 million on their 2017 cap, about 52% of the total 167 million dollar cap. Five of those players are defensive players: Damon Harrison, Jason Pierre-Paul, Olivier Vernon, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Janoris Jenkins. The Giants have not drafted well in recent years, particularly in rounds 3-7, so they have had to sign other team’s free agents to bolster their roster. It has worked to an extent, but it has left them in a very inflexible position cap wise and, without good young players on cheap rookie deals to fill in the gaps, it has left them with some glaring holes on both sides of the ball.

One of those glaring holes was defensive tackle, following the departure of Hankins. The Giants filled that hole in the second round of the draft with defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, but he could be overmatched as a rookie. The Giants don’t really have another choice though, as Jay Bromley is the only reserve with any career starts and he struggled mightily in 2016, finishing 102th out of 127 eligible interior defenders on Pro Football Focus. Fortunately, the Giants frequently line defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon up inside in obvious passing situations, so Tomlinson will really only be counted on for a base package run stuffing role. He’s an adequate run stuffer, but won’t give them any pass rush.

Fellow starting defensive tackle Damon Harrison is also primarily a base package player, but he did play a career high 674 snaps in his first season in a 4-3 defense in 2016, after spending the first 4 seasons of his career in a 3-4 defense with the Jets. A monstrous 6-4 350 pounder, Harrison is arguably the best run stuffing defensive tackle in the league, but also moves surprisingly well for his size and can pressure the quarterback a little bit if asked to do so. He proved himself to be surprisingly scheme versatile in his first season with the Giants in 2016.

Harrison has been a top-14 defensive tackle in all 4 seasons as a starter, making 64 of 64 possible starts over that time period, and has finished #1, #3, #1, and #1 among defensive tackles in those 4 seasons respectively in terms of pure run stuffing grade. A former undrafted free agent who at one time weighed over 400 pounds, Harrison has done a great job getting in shape, staying in shape, and dominating on the defensive line. Going into his age 29 season in 2017, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue. Only the 21st highest paid defensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary, Harrison was a great value signing last off-season.

Olivier Vernon wasn’t quite as good of a value, but helped this defensive line tremendously in his first season in New York. Vernon came to New York as a one-year wonder, finishing 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2015, but maxing out at 17th in the first 3 seasons of his career before that. Vernon proved himself as a high level player once again in 2016, finishing 7th at his position and should finish somewhere around there again in 2017. Going into his age 27 season, Vernon is in the prime of his career.

Along with Vernon and Harrison, JPP is also in the prime of his career, going into his age 28 season. His prime and possibly his whole career looked to be in jeopardy after he lost part of his hand in a fireworks accident on the Fourth of July in 2015, but JPP played pretty well in the final 8 games of the season in 2015 and then appeared to be back to his former self in 2016, finishing 6th among 4-3 defensive ends, earning the big extension the Giants gave him this off-season. Prior to the injury, he finished 6th, 3rd, and 7th in 2011, 2012, and 2014 respectively, with an injury plagued 2013 season in between. Injuries are kind of piling up for him, between the 2013 back injury, the hand injury, and the sports hernia injury that ended his 2016 after 12 games, but, assuming he is healthy, he should have another strong year in 2017.

As I mentioned, both Vernon and JPP are bigger defensive ends (6-2 275 and 6-5 278 respectively) that they like to line up inside in obvious passing situations. With Hankins gone and Tomlinson replacing him, they will probably have to do that even more this season. Unfortunately, that could be a problem because the Giants’ depth at the defensive end position is about as poor as it is at the defensive tackle position. Romeo Okwara was the 3rd defensive end last season and made 4 starts in JPP’s absence, but struggled mightily on 368 snaps, particularly as a pass rusher. That’s unsurprising, considering he went undrafted in 2016.

Okwara will face competition for snaps from fellow backups Kerry Wynn and Owamagbe Odighizuwa, as well as 5th round rookie Avery Moss. Odighizuwa is the most talented of the bunch, but, like many of the Giants’ recent 3rd round picks, he has done nothing so far in the NFL. In 2 seasons in the league, he has played just 299 snaps and struggled mightily. He briefly left the team this off-season and considered retirement, but returned to the team and will be given a chance to compete for a role out of pure necessity. He’s far from a lock to even make the final roster. Wynn, meanwhile, has graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league, after going undrafted in 2014, and, like Okwara, he is a better run stuffer than pass rusher. Perhaps they will give Okwara and Wynn a shot inside at defensive tackle in sub packages and keep JPP and Vernon as the edge rushers. Anyway you look at it, the Giants have a major depth problem on the defensive line, but they also have arguably the best starting defensive line in football, even with Hankins gone.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Giants will need their defensive line to play at a high level again to mask their issues in the linebacking corps. Even as good as their defense was as a whole last season, they got pretty poor play from their linebackers. Outside linebacker Devon Kennard was the best of the bunch, finishing 30th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus. That’s pretty par for the course for him, as the 2014 5th round pick has graded out above average in all 3 seasons in the league, but the big 6-3 251 pounder doesn’t do well in coverage and hasn’t been anything more than a pure base package player in his career. The 533 snaps he played last season were a career high. He should play a similar role in 2016.

Middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard also only played in base packages last season, making 11 starts in 16 games, but only playing 453 snaps. He is no longer with the team and won’t be missed, after finishing 82nd among 87 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Keenan Robinson, who came in for Sheppard in sub packages and played 780 snaps overall, is a candidate to take over for Sheppard and play every down inside, but he’s not much better of a player than Sheppard. He’s experienced, with 27 starts over the past 3 seasons, but he’s struggled mightily in all 3 seasons. Last season, he finished 78th out of 87 eligible linebackers and especially struggled against the run. Instead, it’ll likely be 2nd year player BJ Goodson playing every down at middle linebacker, but the 2016 4th round pick played just 13 snaps as a rookie and is a major projection to a starting role. The Giants seem to like him though.

Robinson is probably more of a candidate to start at the other outside linebacker position than he is to start at middle linebacker over Goodson. At outside linebacker, Robinson will compete with fellow veteran and incumbent starter Jonathan Casillas. Casillas is probably the better option, but neither option is good. Primarily a special teamer early in his career, Casillas has made 28 starts in the past 3 seasons, after just 12 starts in his first 5 seasons in the league, but has struggled in all 3 seasons and finished last season 57th out of 87 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his age 30 season, he’s best as a reserve and a special teamer, but the Giants might not have a choice. Unless Goodson can have a surprising breakout year, this linebacking corps should be one of the worst in the league again.

Grade: D

Secondary

One thing the Giants could do to bolster their linebacking corps is move safety Landon Collins to linebacker in sub packages the way the Packers do with Morgan Burnett, the Patriots do with Patrick Chung, and the Redskins do with Su’a Cravens. Bigger than all 3 of those players at 6-0 225, Collins certainly has the size to play linebacker in sub packages and his run stopping ability is his best attribute, as he was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked safety in run stopping grade in 2016. The drawback with that move is it would take Collins out of the Giants’ backend in passing situations and Collins fared well in coverage too.

After a disappointing rookie year in which the 2015 2nd round pick finished 78th out of 89 eligible safeties, Collins was arguably the most improved defensive player in the league in 2016, finishing 2nd among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Along with all of their defensive free agent acquisitions, Collins’ breakout year was what turned the play of this defense around in a hurry. Wherever he lines up in 2017, he figures to be a force once again. He’s one of the few good young players the Giants have on a cheap rookie deal.

Another reason having Collins play more linebacker makes some sense is because they have more depth at safety than they do at linebacker. The Giants used a 3rd round pick in 2016 on Boise State safety Darian Thompson and planned on starting him at safety opposite Collins, but he went down for the season with a broken foot after 2 games. Fortunately, fill-in Andrew Adams, an undrafted rookie, played pretty well in his absence, making 13 starts and finishing above average (39th) among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Thompson will compete with Andrews for the starting job, but the Giants may look for ways to get both on the field at the same time. Playing Collins at linebacker part-time would allow them to do that and allow them to get their best athletes on the field in passing situations.

The Giants are also deep at the cornerback position too. Like fellow free agent acquisitions Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison, ex-Ram Janoris Jenkins was a big success in his first season in New York, finishing 8th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in the first year of a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal. The deal seemed like an overpay, considering he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 3 seasons in the league in 2012-2014 and only maxed out at 26th in the final year of his rookie deal in 2015. An inconsistent player who misses too many tackles and gets burned deep too often, Jenkins might not be as good this season as he was last season. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being a top level cornerback and he’s already going into his age 29 season, so it’s not like he’s just entering his prime.

The Giants also have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, another talented veteran cornerback opposite him. DRC also struggled early in his career, but he’s proven himself in 4 straight seasons, finishing in the top-19 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 years (61 starts). He’s going into his age 31 season, so his best years might be behind him, but the Giants are obviously hoping he can continue playing at a high level for another couple years. Last year was one of his best, as he finished 5th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus.

The 3rd cornerback will be Eli Apple, the 10th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Apple wasn’t great as a rookie, grading out below average overall, but was regarded as raw coming out of the draft and didn’t even turn 21 until last August. He still has a sky high ceiling and could have a breakout year in 2017. Apple is probably the long-term replacement for Rodgers-Cromartie, whose contract runs out after 2018, but, for now, the Giants have potentially three really good cornerbacks on their roster. It’s a talented secondary.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Giants have one of the top heaviest cap distributions in the league, with 7 players taking up more than half of their cap space. As a result of the Giants’ inability to draft good young players on cheap rookie deals, the Giants have had to pay big money for free agents to fill holes, which has left them thin on key parts of the roster. While the first couple rounds have given them players like Odell Beckham, Landon Collins, Weston Richburg, and Justin Pugh (who is no longer on a cheap rookie deal), they haven’t drafted a single proven starter in the 3rd round or later of the draft since Mario Manningham way back in 2008 and he is long gone. Many of their later round picks have been complete washouts who never developed into even valuable depth players. Getting good players in the first couple rounds is important, but getting good players after the first couple rounds is necessary for a team to consistently be good and the Giants have struggled mightily in that aspect in recent years. That shows when looking at their roster.

All that being said, they have done a great job of adding good talent in free agency and have several top level players on both sides of the ball, which is why they are coming off of an 11-win season and a playoff appearance. Given that most of their top level players are veterans and that they had very few major injuries last season, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if this team took a step backwards in 2017, particularly with Eli Manning seemingly going into the twilight of his career, but this team should still be in the mix for a playoff spot because they have obvious strengths, particularly on defense.  

Final update: The Giants enter the season without any major injuries, but face a lot of competition for playoff spots in the tough NFC.

Prediction: 8-8, 4th in NFC East

Green Bay Packers 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Quarterback

The Packers started last season a very disappointing 4-6, leading to Aaron Rodgers famously saying after their 6th loss that he thought they could run the table. Rodgers wasn’t quite right, but they gave it a good run, winning their next 8 games, including 2 playoff games, before falling short in the NFC Championship game in Atlanta. Rodgers himself was a huge part of the turnaround, completing a ridiculous 71.0% of his passes for an average of 8.34 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and no interceptions in the Packers’ final 6 regular season games.

That came after he completed an uncharacteristic 63.2% of his passes for an average of 6.73 yards per attempt, 25 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions over the Packers’ first 10 games. As a result, the Packers moved the chains at a 40.60% rate over those final 6 games, as opposed to 37.91% in their first 10 games. There are a lot of reasons why Rodgers and this offense started clicking down the stretch, but a big one had to be wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who looked a little sluggish to start the season in his return from a torn ACL, but returned to form down the stretch. Nelson caught 44 passes for 594 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 6 games, after 53 catches for 663 yards and 9 touchdowns in his first 10 games.

Rodgers’ worst season as a starter came in 2015 when he was without Jordy Nelson, as he completed just 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.68 yards per attempt, 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Both his completion percentage and YPA were career lows. When Nelson returned and Rodgers was still disappointing by his standards, some started to question if he was losing it a little bit as he was getting into his mid 30s, but he proved down the stretch that those questions were premature.

He finished last season 3rd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, his 6th top-5 finish in the last 8 seasons and his 8th top-8 finish in 9 seasons as a starter (135 starts). Even in his worst season in 2015, he still finished 12th at his position. Now going into his age 34 season, it’s always possible he could start to decline, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of quarterbacks playing at a high level into their mid 30s in recent years, so he should remain one of the top quarterbacks in the league for at least another couple seasons, even if he does decline a little bit. The Packers are obviously in great hands with him as their signal caller.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

I already mentioned how important #1 receiver Jordy Nelson is to this offense. He “only” finished 14th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus last season, but he was their 2nd ranked wide receiver in both 2013 and 2014, before missing all of 2015 with injury. Now in his 30s, there was some concern that he’d never be the same player again, but he showed he had a lot left in the tank down the stretch last season and should have another couple strong seasons left in him. Even if he declines a little bit, going into his age 32 season, he’ll still be one of the better wide receivers in the league.

At one point, Nelson and fellow receiver Randall Cobb were arguably the best receiving duo in the league. In 2014, they combined for 2,806 receiving yards, most in the league by any two teammates, with Cobb going for 91/1287/12. After that season, the Packers locked Cobb up long-term on a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal as a free agent, but he hasn’t been the same since. He’s still finished above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 2 seasons, but he hasn’t come close to his #9 rank from 2014 and he averaged just a 70/720/5 slash line. He’s only missed 3 total games with injury, but has been limited in many others. Still only going into his age 27 season, there’s some bounce back potential for him if he can stay healthy, as he’s been a top-12 wide receiver in his last 2 healthy seasons, but those seasons were back in 2012 and 2014, so injuries are definitely a major concern for him going forward.

Last season, Cobb actually fell to 3rd on the depth chart, with Jordy Nelson (1015) and Davante Adams (915) both playing significantly more snaps than Cobb (681). The Packers use 3-wide receiver sets with regularity, so there will still be plenty of opportunity for Cobb to play if he opens the season as the #3 receiver, but Adams is probably ahead of him on the depth chart for now. Adams’ leap up the depth chart was pretty surprising, considering he was not considered a lock to even be the 3rd receiver at this time last year, after back-to-back abysmal seasons to start his career in 2014 and 2015.

Adams finished the 2014 season 99th among 110 eligible wide receivers on 738 snaps and then ended the 2015 season 109th out of 121 eligible on 763 snaps. In 2016, he leaped up to 49th among wide receivers, slightly above average, and caught 75 passes for 997 yards and 12 touchdowns as the de facto #2 receiver. He’s only a one-year wonder and could regress in 2017, but it’s also possible the former second round pick has turned a corner and will continue developing into a solid receiver going forward. Not 25 until December, Adams definitely has youth on his side. In his final year of his rookie deal, Adams could command a big salary in free agency next off-season if he has another good year, which could make the Packers have to choose between him and Cobb (9.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2018) next off-season.

In addition to three talented pass catchers at wide receiver, the Packers also signed a talented pass catcher at tight end in Martellus Bennett in free agency this off-season, bringing him in on a 3-year, 21 million deal. He’ll replace free agent departure Jared Cook, who was a valuable weapon for Rodgers down the stretch, but missed most of the season with injury. Bennett is also a huge upgrade over Cook as a run blocker. The big 6-6 275 pounder moves well for his size and has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 9 seasons in the league, including three top-10 finishes in the past 5 seasons. Going into his age 30 season, Bennett’s best days might be behind him at this point, but he’s still coming off a 10th place finish among tight ends in 2016 and should be a valuable player for them for another couple years.

In addition, the Packers signed another veteran tight end in free agency too, bringing in ex-Ram Lance Kendricks on a 2-year, 4 million. Kendricks is plenty experienced, with 79 starts in 93 games in 6 seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2011, but isn’t a very good player, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus just once in those 6 seasons and never recording more than 50 catches in a season. That career high in catches came last season, when he turned them into just 499 yards and 2 touchdowns. A mediocre run blocker as well, Kendricks finished 54th out of 63 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus on 830 snaps last season.

In Green Bay, he’ll play a much smaller role and will compete with incumbent Richard Rodgers for the #2 tight end job. Rodgers also has experience, with 23 starts in 48 games in 3 seasons in the league, but has also graded out below average in 2 of 3 seasons, including 53rd out of 63 eligible tight ends on 604 snaps last season. Even though neither player is great, both are solid depth behind Bennett and the Packers might have the most experienced tight end group in the league. Rodgers should have plenty of options again in 2017.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Packers averaged an impressive 4.55 yards per carry average last season, 7th best in the league, but didn’t have a consistent runner all year after Eddie Lacy got hurt after 5 games. In fact, the 71 carries Lacy had in those 5 games were just less than the 77 carries that Ty Montgomery led the team with, and he began the year as a wide receiver. As a result, the Packers ran the ball just 374 times, 4th fewest in the league, and 67 of those carries were quarterback runs by Aaron Rodgers. Including quarterbacks runs and sacks, the Packers ran 725 plays for Rodgers last year, as opposed to 304 carries by running backs or wide receivers, which made them much more one-dimensional than they would have liked. Also, much of their success on the ground on a per carry basis came from the fact that teams were expecting the pass and didn’t put a lot of guys in the box.

Given all that and that Eddie Lacy signed with the Seahawks this off-season, running back was a major position of need for the Packers this off-season. They didn’t add a running back in free agency or use a high pick on a back, but they did take 3 backs late in the draft, with the highest drafted one coming off the board in the 4th round. Fourth round pick Jamaal Williams probably has the best shot at a big rookie year role, but, with Lacy, James Starks, Don Jackson, and Christine Michael all no longer with the team, Ty Montgomery and fullback Aaron Ripkowski are the only backs on the team with any career carries, so 5th round pick Aaron Jones and 7th round pick Devante Mays both have a shot at playing time in 2017 too.

Williams is a powerful runner who runs bigger than his listed 6-0 212, but doesn’t have great burst and doesn’t contribute in the passing game. There’s a reason he fell to the 4th round, but he could end up being a solid two-down back for them long-term. He’ll complement converted receiver Ty Montgomery well. A 2015 3rd round pick, Montgomery impressed in limited action as a runner last season, rushing for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns on 77 carries (5.94 YPC), and also added 44 catches for 348 yards. He ranked 18th among running backs on Pro Football Focus on 392 snaps.

Built more like a running back than a wide receiver at 6-0 216, Montgomery played both positions in college at Stanford and is transitioning to running back full time this season. The rookie Williams could lead this team in carries, but Montgomery will probably have more touches because he has a good chance to catch 50-60 balls. Running back is still a weakness for this team, but Montgomery and Williams both have potential and complement each other well, so there’s definitely upside here.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

The Packers used to have arguably the best guard duo in the NFL in TJ Lang and Josh Sitton, but they have lost both of them over the past 2 off-seasons. First, there was their strange decision to release Sitton, one of the best interior linemen in the league, at final cuts, ahead of the final year of his contract, to save 6.85 million last off-season. Then this off-season they allowed Lang to walk as a free agent, even though he was signed to a pretty reasonable 3-year, 28.5 million dollar deal. Not only did they lose both of those talented players, but now both are with division rivals, as Sitton signed with the Bears close to immediately after being released last year, while Lang is now with the Lions.

Former backup Lane Taylor took over for Sitton last season and did a decent job, considering he went undrafted in 2013 and had made just 2 career starts in 3 seasons prior to last season. He wasn’t great, finishing 41st out of 72 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus, and he was certainly a downgrade from Sitton, who finished 10th with the Bears last season, but he was serviceable and made all 16 starts. With Lang now gone too, Taylor is locked into a starting role going forward.

Lang, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked guard last season, so he too will be very tough to replace. The Packers signed 11-year veteran Jahri Evans as a potential stopgap starter this off-season and he will compete with utilityman backup Don Barclay and 2016 2nd round pick Jason Spriggs. Evans is a 4-time All-Pro with 169 career starts, but is going into his age 35 season and well past his prime. He did make all 16 starts and finish 36th among guards in 2016, so he could be serviceable for another year, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Evans is probably a better option than Barclay though, as Barclay has struggled whenever he’s been counted on in 5 seasons in the league. His only season as a starter came in 2013, when he made 14 starts at right tackle. He finished that season 57th out of 76 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Barclay is versatile and can play anywhere on the offensive line, but he’s not a starting caliber player. Spriggs, meanwhile, was a high pick, but played tackle in college and might not be the best fit at guard. He made 2 spot starts at right guard last season, but was pretty underwhelming. He’s probably their most talented option if they feel he can make the switch, but I think it’s more likely he starts the year as the swing tackle again.

Lang and Sitton are not the only offensive linemen that the Packers have lost as they also lost center JC Tretter on a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar deal to the Browns in free agency this off-season. Tretter isn’t as big of a loss as the other two, but he’s a versatile, starting caliber player who could have replaced Lang at right guard if they had kept him. Tretter made 7 starts at center last year for the Packers and finished 9th at his position on Pro Football Focus, before going down for the season with a knee injury.

Fortunately, his injury coincided with the return of regular center Corey Linsley from injury and Linsley played well in the final 9 starts of the season, finishing 12th among centers. A mere 5th round pick in 2014, Linsley has played well through 3 seasons in the league, finishing in the top-12 among centers in all 3 seasons, but injuries have been an issue for him in the past 2 seasons, as he’s missed a combined 10 games. They will need him to stay healthy and play at a high level in 2017 to offset the losses of Lang and Tretter. If he can’t, the Packers don’t have another good option on the roster.

While they lost Sitton, Lang, and Tretter, the Packers did keep one offensive lineman whose contract was set to expire during the 2017 off-season, locking up left tackle David Bakhtiari on a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension last off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. Despite being a mere 4th round pick, Bakhtiari was a rare rookie that started at left tackle week 1 and he has made 62 of a possible 64 starts in 4 seasons since, missing just 2 games due to injury.

He struggled as a rookie, but has improved in every season since, going from 62nd, to 53rd, to 26th, to 4th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in the last 4 seasons respectively and is still only going into his age 26 season. Only the 5th highest paid offensive tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary, the extension the Packers gave him was money well spent, especially considering significantly inferior players like Eric Fisher, Matt Kalil, and Russell Okung have all gotten contracts worth 11+ million annually in the past calendar year.

Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Bryan Bulaga, who made 16 starts for the first time in his career in 2016 and had one of his better seasons, finishing 15th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. A 2010 1st round pick, Bulaga has made 76 starts in 6 healthy seasons in the league (he missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL) and has finished above average 4 times in 6 seasons. Health has always been a concern for him though and, with Spriggs waiting in the wings behind him, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers let him go after the season, rather than paying him the 13.5 million he’ll be owed in 2018 and 2019. If he plays like he did last season again though, it’ll be hard to let him go. The Packers are pretty set at both tackle and center, but are much weaker at guard than they are used to.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While the Packers’ offense was much improved over their final 6 games of the regular season, their defense actually allowed the exact same first down rate (37.69%) in their final 6 games as they did in their first 10 games. On the season, they finished 26th in first down rate allowed. They forced more turnovers in the final 6 games (15 vs. 10), but, outside of takeaways, they still had a major problem getting off the field and, unfortunately for them, turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. They are going to need the defense to force more punts this season if they are going to continue to win like they did down the stretch in 2016.

It wasn’t all bad on defense for the Packers in 2016 though, as defensive lineman Mike Daniels remains one of the best players in the league at his position. A steal in the 4th round in 2012, Daniels took over as a starter and has been a top-8 player at the 3-4 defensive end position in all 4 seasons, including back-to-back #3 ranks in 2015 and 2016. Only going into his age 28 season, I see no reason why his strong play couldn’t continue into 2017. He also hasn’t missed a single game with injury since his rookie year. He’s their most valuable defensive player.

The Packers also have 2016 1st round pick Kenny Clark, who figures to have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league in 2017, after flashing on 335 snaps as a rookie. Clark is big enough to play nose tackle in base packages at 6-2 314, but also moves well enough to play in sub packages. They used a high pick on him, so they will probably use him in more of an every down role, especially since they don’t have another every down defensive lineman outside of Daniels. Last season, they frequently rushed outside linebackers Julius Peppers and Datone Jones from the interior in sub packages because they had the size to do it, but both players are no longer with the team, which frees up snaps for Clark. About 500-600 snaps for Clark seems likely (Daniels played 664 snaps last season). Not 22 until October, Clark has a monstrous upside and is a breakout candidate for 2017.

Clark isn’t the only 2nd year defensive lineman who should have a bigger role in 2017, as 2016 4th round Dean Lowry flashed on 158 snaps as a rookie and will probably see more playing time in his 2nd year in the league as a result. The 6-6 296 pound Lowry is a better pass rusher than run stopper, but showed a little bit of both last season. He’ll probably play a rotational role and rush the passer from the interior in sub packages with some regularity. The Packers like to rotate defensive linemen, so there’s definitely going to be playing time for Lowry. We’ll see how his play translates to a larger role.

In base packages, veteran journeyman Ricky Jean-Francois will compete with 3rd round rookie Montravius Adams and veteran holdover Letroy Guion for the 3rd defensive lineman role. Jean-Francois, signed from the Redskins this off-season, is probably the favorite. He’s best as a rotational player, but has 36 career starts in 109 career games and has graded out above average in 3 straight seasons. He only played 385 snaps in 2015 and 442 snaps in 2016 and he’s going into his age 31 season, but he should be an upgrade over Guion, who finished below average on 449 snaps last season.

Guion is still with the team, but is suspended for the first 4 games of the season and is no guarantee to make the final roster. He’s graded out below average in 7 of 9 seasons in the league and is going into his age 30 season now. Adams, meanwhile, was regarded as raw coming out of Auburn and may have to have essentially a rookie redshirt year. He has the upside to develop into an every down player though. With second year players Kenny Clark and Noah Lowry likely taking a step forward, this is an improved defensive line and one with solid depth.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, the Packers lost outside linebackers Julius Peppers and Datone Jones in free agency. They played 587 and 548 snaps respectively last season, so, even though they both rushed the passer from the interior regularly, their departures leave them pretty thin at the outside linebacker position. Fortunately, the Packers did re-sign one of their outside linebackers this off-season, bringing back Nick Perry on a 5-year, 59.925 million deal. Perry led all Packer outside linebackers in snaps with 606 last season and also led the team with 11 sacks, so he was obviously important to keep. He finished last season 8th among 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus.

The amount the Packers had to pay to keep him is not ideal though, considering he’s a one-year wonder. Prior to 2016, he had just 12.5 career sacks in 4 seasons in the league and had never played more than 374 snaps in a season. He was a first round pick in 2012, so he has always had talent, and he did flash on occasion in limited action prior to 2016, but he missed 18 games with injury and was never anything more than a rotational player when healthy. Certainly, he never did anything like he did in 2016.

It’s possible he’s turned the corner as a player and will have more seasons like 2016 ahead of him, but it’s a very risky signing considering his history. Although only his 18.5 million dollar signing bonus was guarantee, he will make 20.725 million in the first year, 27.925 million over the first 2 years, and 38.925 million over the first 3 years, so it would be very tough for the Packers to get out of this deal anytime soon if they wanted to do so, without incurring a major cap hit. If they were to cut him after 2 years, they would only free up about 3.6 million in cap space.

The Packers are obviously hoping Nick Perry can repeat his 2016 season and they are also obviously hoping Clay Matthews can be healthier and have a bounce back season at the other outside linebacker spot. Like with Perry, that’s far from a guarantee. Matthews was at one point one of the best defensive players in the league, finishing in the top-6 among 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus in each of the first 4 seasons in his career from 2009-2012, after going in the first round in 2009.

However, his play has steadily declined in recent years, culminating with the worst season of his career in 2016, when he was limited to a career low 479 snaps in 12 games and finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. He should be better by default in 2017, but his best days seem long behind him. He has missed 13 games with injury in the past 5 seasons and played through serious injuries in countless other games and is now going into his age 31 season. Matthews is as tough as they come, but he seems to be breaking down. Owed a non-guaranteed 11.4 million in the final year of his contract in 2018, this could be Matthews’ final season in Green Bay unless he shows his old form.

With Peppers and Jones gone, Perry and Matthews will be relied on heavily in 2017 and, barring injury, will probably play more snaps than they did last season. However, since neither player is particularly reliable or durable, the Packers’ depth at the position is critical. Many thought the Packers would address the outside linebacker position early in the draft, but didn’t use a pick on the position until they took Wisconsin’s Vince Biegel with the first pick in the 4th round. Biegel is currently dealing with a foot injury that could cost him a big chunk of the off-season, which would put him very much behind the 8-ball as a rookie.

When healthy, Biegel will compete with 2016 3rd round pick Kyler Fackrell and 2014 undrafted free agent Jayrone Elliott for playing time behind Matthews and Perry. Elliott has never played more than 174 snaps in 3 seasons in the league, playing primarily special teams, and has never shown much potential either, but will probably have a larger role in 2017 out of necessity. Fackrell, meanwhile, flashed on 161 snaps last season and will probably be the 3rd outside linebacker. He has upside and could be a future starter, but he’s obviously unproven.

At middle linebacker, the Packers have three young players who will compete for 2 starting spots, 2015 4th round pick Jake Ryan, 2016 4th round pick Blake Martinez, and 2014 undrafted free agent Joe Thomas. Ryan was the best of the three in 2016, grading out just below average, while Martinez and Thomas finished 65th and 68th respectively among 87 linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Ryan is a one-year wonder who struggled on 260 snaps as a rookie, but he seemed to take a step forward in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, playing well both in coverage and against the run. He’s likely locked into one of the two starting jobs.

That leaves Martinez and Thomas to compete for the other job, though the other job is probably a two-down job. The Packers like to drop safety Morgan Burnett (6-1 209) down to linebacker in sub packages and used a 2nd round pick on safety Josh Jones, so they definitely have the safety depth to do it. Given that it’s a two-down job, Martinez is probably the favorite because, while he looked lost in coverage last season, he played the run pretty well, while Thomas struggled both in coverage and against the run. That leaves Thomas in a backup role, where he belongs. Prior to 2016, he had never made a start in 2 seasons in the league. It’s overall a pretty underwhelming linebacker group.

Grade: C

Secondary

While Morgan Burnett will play a lot of linebacker in sub packages, in base packages he will form one of the best safety duos in the league with fellow starting safety HaHa Clinton-Dix. In 2015, Burnett and Clinton-Dix finished 4th and 8th respectively among safeties on Pro Football Focus and, in 2016, they “fell” to 15th and 20th respectively. Burnett is a veteran, going into his 8th season in the league, but has last 2 seasons have been his best and he’s finished above average on Pro Football Focus in 5 of 6 seasons as a starter (86 starts).

Clinton-Dix, meanwhile, is going into just his 4th season in the league, after getting drafted in the first round in 2014. Clinton-Dix showed himself to be a capable starter in 10 starts as a rookie, but has taken his game to the next level in the past 2 seasons and has made all 32 starts over that time period. Only going into his age 25 season, Clinton-Dix is one of the best young safeties in the league. Also, as I mentioned, the Packers used a 2nd round pick on North Carolina State’s Josh Jones, who will be the 3rd safety and play in sub packages when Burnett moves to linebacker. Jones has good upside and great athleticism, but missed 13 tackles in his final season in college, so he’s far from a sure thing.

Jones was not the only defensive back the Packers used a 2nd round pick on, as they took Washington cornerback Kevin King 33rd overall, the first pick of the second round, after moving down from 29 with the Browns. The 6-3 King has great size and length and fills a big need at cornerback. Despite using a first and a second round pick on cornerbacks Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins in 2015, the Packers still had major depth issues in 2016 with Randall missing 6 games, Rollins missing 3, and Sam Shields missing 15. As a result, the Packers were led in snaps played at cornerback by Ladarius Gunter (867 snaps) and Micah Hyde (827 snaps).

The problem got even worse this off-season with Hyde signing with the Bills in free agency and Shields being released because of lingering concussion symptoms. The Packers signed veteran Davon House in free agency, but King has a good chance to beat him out for the #3 job and could also push both Randall and Rollins for starting jobs. House has been a capable player throughout his career and has started 34 games in 6 seasons in the league, but is coming off of a season in which he struggled on just 272 snaps with the Jaguars. It’s a homecoming for House, who spent the first 4 seasons of his career in Green Bay (2011-2014), but King is a much more talented player who should be considered the favorite for the job.

Randall and Rollins are also talented players, but both are coming off of bad years, finishing 108th and 84th respectively among 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Both were better as a rookie, especially Rollins, who finished 20th among cornerbacks on 323 snaps, but both will have a lot to prove in their 3rd year in the league this season. They are not locks for starting jobs. Cornerback is not nearly as solid of a position as safety for the Packers, but the Packers’ talented safeties should mask their issues at cornerback somewhat.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers playing like he does, they are always going to be a Super Bowl threat. Whether or not they have the talent around him to actually make a deep run remains to be seen. They should be better in the secondary and on the defensive line than they were last season, but they still have major issues in the linebacking corps and at running back and they lost top interior offensive lineman TJ Lang in free agency, which can’t be overlooked. Overall, they should play better than they did last season, but last season was their worst regular season in years, so that’s not saying a ton. They are going to be a Super Bowl contender once again, but there are at least 4-5 teams that I think have better shots than them. 

Final update: The Packers enter the season without major injuries. This is not Aaron Rodgers’ most talented supporting cast, but they should be in the mix in the NFC once again.

Prediction: 10-6, 1st in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

After the 2015 season, things looked bright for the Vikings. Even though they lost their home playoff game to the Seahawks on a missed field goal, it was still an impressive season for the Vikings who went 11-5 in just the second season of new head coach Mike Zimmer and first round pick quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. After a 5-10-1 season in 2013, they rebuilt talent all over their roster faster than most expected and appeared to be a Super Bowl contender in 2016. Unfortunately, that’s when the season from hell struck for the Vikings, as they finished with the 3rd most adjusted games lost to injury in the league.

The most gruesome of the injuries was the injury suffered by Bridgewater, who tore just about everything in his knee in practice with just about three weeks left before the start of the season. It appeared to be a devastating loss for the Vikings, who were hoping that Bridgewater could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league and take this team to the next level. Not only would Bridgewater immediately be ruled out for the entire 2016 season, but questions about his availability long-term in 2017 and beyond were raised too. A bright young career appeared to be in jeopardy.

As unfortunate as the injury was, football moves on and the Vikings needed to make a move, so they shocked everyone by sending their 2017 first round pick to the Eagles for veteran Sam Bradford, who was about to be unseated by #2 overall pick Carson Wentz for the starting job. The move reeked of desperation, but it was certainly understandable. With a talented roster around the quarterback position, the Vikings didn’t feel they needed their first rounder in 2017 and Bradford gave them at least a chance to win in 2016, while veteran journeyman backup Shaun Hill did not. Still, with Bradford having just 8 days to get ready for the season with new teammates and a new playbook, many were understandably skeptical the move would work.

Instead, Bradford exceeded just about everyone’s expectations, finishing 12th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus for the second straight season. The Vikings finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs, but it’s tough to blame Bradford, given all the injuries they had around him. Not only did Bradford play well, but he also avoided injury, which was always the knock on him. Bradford sat out the first week of the season while he was still learning the playbook, but he made all 15 starts afterwards. Since being limited to 7 games in 2012 and 2013 combined by two ACL tears, Bradford has missed just 2 games with injury over the past 2 seasons.

Bridgewater, meanwhile, is expected to not be ready for the start of the season. The Vikings can keep him on injured reserve and toll the final year of his rookie deal to 2018. Bradford is going into the final year of his contract, so the Vikings will have a decision to make next off-season, but, for now, Bradford remains the Vikings’ starter. Going into his 2nd year in Minnesota, Bradford should be better prepared for this season and could play even better as a result. If the Vikings can be better around him this season, they have a good chance to get back into the post-season.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Bradford actually broke the single season record for completion percentage in 2016 by completing 71.6% of his passes. Despite that, the Vikings ranked just 24th in first down rate. How did that happen? Well, the Vikings averaged a league worst 3.17 yards per carry on the ground, not only the worst YPC average in the league last season, but the worst YPC average in the league by any team since 2013. On top of that, Bradford was under pressure all year and frequently had to check down. He took 37 sacks in 15 games, despite one of the quickest releases in the league, and averaged a league worst 9.82 yards per completion, so, while he was completing passes at an incredible rate, most of them weren’t going for that much yardage. His 7.02 YPA average was just 19th in the NFL.

The Vikings’ issues on the ground and protecting the quarterback last season were largely as a result of the offensive line, so they rightfully made the offensive line a priority this off-season. With expected starting offensive tackles Matt Kalil (left) and Andre Smith (right) limited to 121 snaps and 182 snaps respectively, the Vikings had to play the likes of TJ Clemmings (882 snaps), Jeremiah Sirles (772 snaps), and Jake Long (210 snaps). All three struggled, particularly Clemmings, who finished 76th out of 78 eligible on Pro Football Focus.

Kalil and Smith are no longer on the roster, so the Vikings signed Riley Reiff (5 years, 58.75 million) and Mike Remmers (5 years, 30 million) to play left tackle and right tackle respectively this season. Clemmings, meanwhile, will be no better than the swing tackle this season. Reiff was overpaid because he’s never been a top level player, but he should be a huge upgrade over what they had last season. A 2012 1st round pick, Reiff has never been a top-30 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus, but he has never had a bad season either and has made 69 career starts in 77 games in 5 seasons in the league, both at left tackle and right tackle. Last season, he finished 48th out of 78 eligible offensive tackles in 16 starts on the right side. He’ll move back to the left side with the Vikings.

Remmers is also a big upgrade over what they had last season. The 2012 undrafted free agent was a bit of a late bloomer, not taking over as a starter until week 12 of the 2014 season with the Panthers, but he has made 37 straight regular season starts since then, both at right tackle and left tackle. Remmers is better on the right side, finishing above average in both 2014 and 2015, but he wasn’t terrible on the left side last year either, finishing 51st among 78 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Back at his natural position on the right side, he should be better than that this season.

Along with left and right tackle, right guard was also a problem position for the Vikings in 2016, as Brandon Fusco finished just 63rd out of 72 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. He was let go this off-season, but the Vikings didn’t really do much to replace him, only drafting Pat Elflein in the 3rd round of the draft. Elflein’s best pro position is probably center, but he has the versatility to play guard and the Vikings only other option is 2016 4th round pick Willie Beavers, a converted collegiate tackle who played just 11 snaps last season.

Elflein was probably drafted to be the starting center long-term, but, for now, veteran center Joe Berger is still playing well. He was arguably their best offensive lineman last season. That’s not saying a ton, but he finished 8th among centers on Pro Football Focus, after finishing 2nd among centers in 2015. Berger was largely a career backup prior to 2015, but he always played well when counted on and has graded out above average in all 10 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history. The biggest concern with him is his age, as he’s going into his age 35 season. It’s unclear how long he can continue playing at this level and how long he’ll continue playing at all. Berger can play guard too, so it’s possible they put Elflein at center and move Berger to right guard.

Along with Berger, left guard Alex Boone was the only other offensive lineman who played well for the Vikings in 2016, finishing 37th among guards on Pro Football Focus. That’s pretty par for the course for him. He’s made 73 starts in the past 5 seasons and finished 3rd, 39th, 18th, 38th, and 37th respectively in those 5 seasons. He’s going into his age 30 season so he’s getting older, but he should have another couple solid seasons left in the tank. The Vikings signed him to a 4-year, 26.8 million dollar deal last off-season and he provided much needed stability upfront. The Vikings should be better upfront this season, after signing Reiff and Remmers this off-season.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

While the offensive line was a big part of the reason why the Vikings couldn’t get anything going on the ground, the running backs were a problem as well. With Adrian Peterson limited to 37 carries in 3 games, Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata split the load, with 159 and 121 carries respectively. They averaged 3.39 and 3.32 YPC respectively and ranked 46th and 36th respectively among 62 eligible running backs. Like Matt Kalil and Andre Smith, Adrian Peterson is no longer with the team coming off injury, but the Vikings made sure to address the position this off-season, signing ex-Raider Latavius Murray in free agency and drafting Florida State’s Dalvin Cook in the 2nd round of the draft.

Murray is experienced, with 461 carries over the past 2 seasons, but was largely an unspectacular runner, rushing for 1854 yards and 18 touchdowns, a 4.02 YPC average, despite running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. While Minnesota’s offensive line is improved, it’s a clear downgrade from what he was running behind in Oakland, so he could struggle. Cook is a much more dynamic runner, even though he fell to the 2nd round of the draft. He fell because of an unimpressive combine and some off-the-field concerns, but he has great vision and his college tape was an impressive as any running back in this draft class.

Murray got 15 million on a 3 year deal in free agency this off-season, but Cook could be their lead back by the end of the season. McKinnon, meanwhile, will be no better than the 3rd back, while Asiata is no longer with the team. Regardless of whether or not Murray or Cook is the lead back, they should be better on the ground this season. Not only are Murray and Cook significant upgrades on McKinnon and Asiata, but they should also be significantly improved in run blocking upfront.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

While the Vikings had poor play at running back and on the offensive line in 2016, their receiving corps helped Sam Bradford out a good amount, though the constant pressure on Bradford made it tough to set up plays downfield. Adam Thielen was technically their deep threat last year, as he was the only receiver who caught more than 1 pass and averaged more than 11.6 yards per catch, but his 14.0 yards per catch average was still only tied for 25th best in the league among wide receiver. That said, he still had an impressive season all things considered, leading the team with 967 yards on 69 catches and catching 5 touchdowns. He was Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked wide receiver.

Even more impressive is the fact that Theilen did that despite being nothing more than an afterthought at this time last season. A 2013 undrafted free agent, Theilen had just 20 career catches in 3 seasons in the league prior to 2017. He came out of nowhere to win a starting job and never looked back. A restricted free agent this off-season, the Vikings signed him to a 4 year, 19.246 million dollar extension this off-season. It’s a risky move because he’s still a one-year wonder, but, if he has another season like he did in 2016, he could prove to be a steal. He’s just the 37th highest paid wide receiver in the NFL in average annual salary.

While Thielen was more of a deep threat, fellow starting wide receiver Stefon Diggs was an underneath threat, catching 84 passes for 903 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games. Thielen is a solid player, but Diggs is their #1 when healthy. A mere 5th round pick in 2015, Diggs has proven to be an absolute steal in 2 years in the league, finishing 25th among wide receivers in 2015 and 16th among wide receivers last season. He hasn’t gone over a thousand yards yet, but he was close last year in 13 games, so, if he can stay healthy, he should surpass that mark in his 3rd year in the league in 2017.

Along with Diggs and Thielen, tight end Kyle Rudolph was also a threat in the passing game for Bradford, catching 83 passes for 840 yards and 7 touchdowns and finishing 13th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. Rudolph has had some solid years in the past, finishing 13th among tight ends in both 2011 and 2012 and 23rd in 2015, but he’s never posted the kind of receiving numbers that he did last season. He also had some injury issues in 2013 and 2014, missing 15 total games between the two seasons, but he’s been otherwise healthy.

His 132 targets last season was easily a career high (93 was his previous career high) and also led the team, so he seems to have good chemistry with Sam Bradford. He might see fewer balls this season if the Vikings don’t have to throw underneath as often, but he should remain a factor in the passing game and he’s overall an above average tight end. The Vikings don’t use two tight ends very often, as Rhett Ellison, the second tight end last year, played just 258 snaps. Ellison with the Giants now, so 2nd year tight end David Morgan, a 6th rounder in 2016, is expected to take over the #2 job. He probably won’t see many more snaps than Ellison did. Rudolph, on the other hand, played 970 snaps last season, 5th most in the league among tight ends.

While the #2 tight end job is not that important in this offense, the #3 and #4 wide receiver job are. Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson played 531 and 405 snaps respectively last season as the primary reserve receivers. Both of them are no longer with the team, so Laquon Treadwell and free agent acquisition Michael Floyd will pick up the slack. Treadwell was a first round pick by the Vikings in 2016 and was expected to have an immediate impact as a rookie. Instead, he not only lost his starting job to Thielen, but he also spent the whole season as the 5th receiver, catching 1 pass for 15 yards on 80 snaps, thanks to a combination of injury and inefficiency. He will need to prove himself in his 2nd year in the league in 2017.

Floyd, meanwhile, will need to re-prove himself, after a horrendous 2016 season. A 2012 first round pick who graded out above average in each of the previous 3 seasons (2013-2015), Floyd plummeted to 88th out of 115 eligible wide receivers in 2016 on 745 snaps. Floyd’s effort was questioned by the Cardinals’ coaching staff and the last straw came when he was arrested for DUI the night after the Cardinals’ week 14 loss to the Miami Dolphins, falling asleep at a stoplight with a BAC of .217.

The Cardinals released him immediately afterwards and he was picked up by the New England Patriots, with whom he was only a depth receiver. He did not play in the AFC Championship game or the Super Bowl and caught just 5 passes between the regular season and post-season. He then served a 120-day jail sentence this off-season (24 days in county jail, 96 days of house arrest). Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver in 2013 and their 24th ranked wide receiver in 2015, Floyd has bounce back potential if he can get it together, still only going into his age 28 season, though he could miss time to start the season if he gets suspended by the league. The Vikings signed him to a very low risk deal with a base salary of just 1.5 million, but he can make up to 6 million in incentives. He adds to a pretty deep receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

The Vikings also dealt with some significant injuries on defense in 2016, including a knee injury to defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd that ended his season after 25 week 1 snaps. Floyd didn’t get put on injured reserve until mid-December, so it was definitely a strange situation. Floyd was given a 5-6 week timetable after having surgery in September and the Vikings held out hope for a 2016 return for a long time, but his recovery apparently did not go as planned. Making matters even worse, the Vikings are unclear whether or not Floyd will be able to play in 2017, as he is still dealing with nerve problems in that knee.

There is also talk this injury could be career threatening like Bridgewater’s, which would be very disappointing because, like Bridgewater, Floyd is a talented former first round pick. He’s still very young too, going into just his age 25 season in 2017. After struggling as a rookie in 2013, Floyd finished above average in both 2014 and 2015 on Pro Football Focus, with his best season coming in 2014, when he finished 5th among defensive tackles. His 6.757 million dollar salary for 2017 is guaranteed for injury, so the Vikings will have to pay it regardless of whether or not he plays, but, if he doesn’t play, this will likely be his final season in Minnesota, as he is in the final year of his rookie deal. If he does play this season, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100%.

With Floyd’s short-term and long-term status uncertain, the Vikings used a 4th round pick on Iowa’s Jaleel Johnson and, depending on Floyd’s health, Johnson could have a significant role as a rookie. In Floyd’s absence last season, reserves Tom Johnson and Shamar Stephen took on bigger roles, playing 476 snaps and 551 snaps respectively. Johnson played primarily in sub packages, where he is at his best, and played pretty well, grading out just above average on Pro Football Focus. Johnson has graded out above average in 2 of the past 3 seasons in a rotational role, but the concern is he’s going into his age 33 season.

Stephen, meanwhile, is younger, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play throughout his 3-year career. He has been among the lowest ranked defensive tackles in all 3 seasons and finished 7th worst at his position in 2015. There’s a reason he fell to the 7th round of the draft in 2014. Johnson could push him for a base package role early, with Johnson coming in as an interior pass rusher in sub packages. With Shamar Stephen, Tom Johnson, and Sharrif Floyd all set to hit free agency next off-season, the Vikings might view Jaleel Johnson as a feature starter long-term.

Linval Joseph is locked in as the other starting defensive tackle and led all Viking defensive tackles with 718 snaps played last season. Joseph has always been a solid player, only grading out below average in 1 season in his career, his rookie year back in 2010, but he’s taken his play to another level in the past 2 seasons. The former second round pick has finished 3rd and 9th respectively among defensive tackles in the last 2 seasons respectively. The big 6-4 329 pounder is primarily a run stuffer, but moves well for his size and can also get after the quarterback. Going into his age 29 season, he’s still in the prime of his career and should have another strong season. He was a steal on a 5-year, 31.25 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago.

Joseph does often come off the field in obvious passing situations though because the Vikings like to use three defensive ends in sub packages and rush Everson Griffen from the interior. This year, they could actually use four defensive ends in sub packages on occasion, with free agent acquisition Datone Jones capable of moving inside in sub packages as well. Brian Robison and Danielle Hunter are the other two defensive ends. Griffen is the best of the bunch, finishing last season 15th among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s been a top-15 player at his position in each of the past 3 seasons since becoming a starter and flashed as a rotational player during the first 4 seasons of his career as well. The 2010 4th round pick was a bit of a late bloomer, but still is only entering his age 30 season, so he should have another couple solid seasons left in the tank.

Hunter, meanwhile, could give him a run for his money as the best defensive end on the team, given how much promise the 2015 3rd round pick has shown in 2 seasons in the league. Hunter has only made 1 start in 2 seasons in the league, but, like Griffen did early in his career, he still makes an impact as a rotational player, finishing 23rd among 4-3 defensive ends on 426 snaps as a rookie and 16th on 603 snaps last season. He could push for a starting role this season and will make an impact as a situational edge rusher even if he doesn’t technically become the starter.

Robison made all 16 starts opposite Griffen last season, his 5th season of 16 starts in the last 6 seasons. Incredibly durable, Robison has missed just 2 games in 10 seasons in the league, but is going into his age 34 season and coming off a down year, in which he finished 89th out of 109 eligible edge defenders on Pro Football Focus. Robison was solid in 2015, but struggled mightily in 2014 as well, so he appears to be running out of gas as he heads into his mid-30s. Robison has already mentioned that he’s planning on retiring after the final season of his contract in 2018, but there’s no guarantee the Vikings bring him back for 2018 at all, given that he’ll be owed 3.5 million non-guaranteed. WIth Hunter emerging and Datone Jones coming in as a free agent, Robison is unlikely to match the 838 snaps he played last season and that should be a good thing for this defense.

Jones is the other member of this defensive end rotation. He ended up playing a career high 548 snaps with the Packers last season because they had a lot of injuries upfront, but, prior to last season, he had never played more than 364 snaps in a season. Now in Minnesota, I wouldn’t expect him to be much higher than the 400-500 snap range, barring injury. Jones was actually a first round pick by the Packers in 2013, but never showed anything resembling first round talent in 4 years with the Packers, despite the Packers trying him at a number of different positions.

He wasn’t terrible last season, but he did grade out slightly below average in his first season as an edge player. His best play has come as a sub package rusher, as he graded out above average in both 2014 and 2015, but that was in very limited action. He’ll probably be primarily a sub package interior rusher in Minnesota, but can also play defensive end in base packages in a pinch. He’s part of a deep defensive line, but, if they are without Sharrif Floyd again this season, that would be a big blow to the middle of their defense.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Despite Floyd’s absence, the Vikings still finished 9th in first down rate allowed last season, thanks to strong play all around the defense. One player who surprisingly struggled though is outside linebacker Anthony Barr, who very uncharacteristically finished as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. This came after he finished 8th at the position as a rookie in 2014 and 1st at the position in 2015. His coach Mike Zimmer somewhat publicly called him out for his play last season and, still only going into his age 25 season, he has a good chance to bounce back in 2017.

If he doesn’t, the Vikings could easily let go him next off-season, rather than pay him the 12.306 million he’d be owed in 2018. If he bounces back though, the Vikings could reward him with an extension that would make him one of the highest paid linebackers in the league. It’s a big year for him financially and the Vikings are obviously hoping that extra motivation can get him back to the player he was in 2015. At his best, he’s a rare Jamie Collins type player, capable of stopping the run, dropping in coverage, and rushing the passer from multiple spots. He has rare size and athleticism.

Middle linebacker Eric Kendricks will be the other every down linebacker again. The 2015 2nd round pick took a step forward in his second year in the league, finishing 21st among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus, after grading out slightly below average as a rookie. A starter basically from day 1 (25 starts in 2 seasons in the league), Kendricks seems to have a bright future. His improved play helped mask Barr’s struggles a little bit. The Vikings are obviously hoping that both can have good seasons in 2017.

Chad Greenway was the 3rd linebacker last season, but he retired after 10 seasons in the league (all with Minnesota) this off-season. Greenway’s only real value in his later years was his leadership though, as his play had really fallen off a cliff in recent years. His play on the field shouldn’t be that hard to replace, as he finished 68th out of 87 eligible linebackers on 399 snaps last season. Veteran Emmanuel Lamur is the most likely option to replace him, but he isn’t a good option either, so he could be pushed for his job by some younger players.

One of those young players is Ben Gedeon, a 4th round rookie out of Michigan. Gedeon played middle linebacker in college, but could move outside in the NFL and has the skill set to develop into a capable base package linebacker. Kentrell Brothers, a 2016 5th round pick who played just 1 snap on defense as a rookie, is also in the mix. Lamur, meanwhile, was limited to 38 snaps last season and finished in the bottom 10 among 4-3 outside linebackers in both 2014 and 2015 with the Bengals. The 3rd linebacker spot remains a weakness, but fortunately it’s only a base package role. Kendricks and Barr are much more important players and both have good upside.

Grade: B-

Secondary

While the Vikings have some good players in the front 7, their secondary was the strength of the team in 2016. The Vikings used a first round pick in 2013 on Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes and a first round pick in 2015 on Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes, but their best cornerback last season was actually 14-year veteran Terence Newman, a first round pick by the Cowboys way back in 2003. Going into his age 39 season, Newman is the 2nd oldest defensive player in the league behind Pittsburgh’s James Harrison, but is still coming off of a season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked cornerback, the 4th time in 5 seasons he’s graded out above average.

At his age, his abilities could fall off a cliff at any point, but the Vikings brought him back on 1-year, 3.25 million dollar deal and probably intend for him to be the starter for one more season. Newman has spent most of his career in Mike Zimmer’s defense, first with the Cowboys, then the Bengals, and now with the Vikings, so he can probably do the mental part of the game in his sleep at this point, but playing cornerback in the NFL is physically tough in your mid-30s, much less in your late-30s like Newman.

He’ll face competition from Trae Waynes, who has been limited to 10 starts in 2 seasons in the league because of strong play ahead of him on the depth chart. Waynes was drafted to be the long-term successor for Newman, but Newman is still going, so he hasn’t been anything more than valuable depth thus far in his career. Waynes played just 215 snaps as a rookie, but injuries forced him to a larger role in 2016, when he finished 72nd among 111 eligible cornerbacks on 587 snaps. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll probably have to wait until his 4th year in the league in 2018 to become an every down starter in this defense, but he could take over for Newman this year if Newman struggles.

Waynes probably isn’t a candidate for the slot cornerback job either because his skill set is that of an outside cornerback. Both Newman and fellow starting cornerback Xavier Rhodes are primarily outside cornerbacks as well, leaving 2016 3rd round pick Mackenzie Alexander as the likely replacement for free agent departure Captain Munnerlyn. Munnerlyn was one of the better slot cornerbacks in the league, so replacing him won’t be an easy task. He was Pro Football Focus’ 48th ranked cornerback in 2016 in a slightly down season for him. Alexander is very inexperienced, playing just 67 snaps as a rookie, but he was one of the best pure slot cornerback prospects in the 2016 draft, so he was a steal in the 3rd round. He could have a solid season.

As I mentioned, Xavier Rhodes is locked in as the other starting cornerback. He’s the de facto #1 cornerback, even though Newman outplayed him last season. Rhodes flashes brilliance and has finished above average in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but has never finished higher than 21st at his position and commits far too many penalties, with 30 in the last 3 seasons combined. He’s still only going into his age 27 season though and he’s coming off of a season in which he finished 29th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, so you could do a lot worse than him. He’s a valuable member of this defense who has made 46 starts in the past 3 seasons. The Vikings will try to lock him up on an extension this off-season, ahead of the final season of his rookie deal in 2017.

Minnesota’s best defensive back is another first round pick, Harrison Smith, the 31st pick in the 2012 NFL Draft out of Notre Dame. He has proven to be a steal, as he has developed into one of the best all-around safeties in the entire NFL. He was Pro Football Focus #2 ranked safety in 2014 and their #1 ranked safety in 2015, so his 10th best place in 2016 was actually a down year by him. He still played very well, despite missing 3 games with an ankle sprain that limited him upon his return. He doesn’t get the attention of guys like Eric Berry or Earl Thomas, but he’s just as valuable to this defense. The only issue with him is that he is a little bit injury prone, missing 13 games in 5 seasons and being limited in others. Having him at 100% would be huge for this defense.

Andrew Sendejo remains as the starter at the other safety spot. He’s experienced, with 40 starts in the last 4 seasons, including 27 in 2015 and 2016 combined, but he’s not a very good player. His worst season came in 2015, when he finished 85th out of 89 eligible safeties on Pro Football Focus, and, while he was better in 2016, he was really only better by default, finishing 54th out of 90 eligible safeties. At his best, he’s a capable starter, but the Vikings don’t have a better option so Sendejo’s job should be pretty secure. He’s the weakest point in a strong secondary.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Vikings were on an upwards trajectory and looked like a future Super Bowl contender at this time last year, but then they had the season from hell in 2016 with all their injuries. Several of the players who were injured last season are no longer with the team (Matt Kalil, Andre Smith, Adrian Peterson) while others are still injured and might not play this season (Teddy Bridgewater, Sharrif Floyd), but the Vikings did a good job this off-season filling needs and adding talent around new Sam Bradford, who should be better in his 2nd season with the team as Bridgewater’s replacement. That could easily get them back into the post-season in 2017. 

Final update: The Vikings let guard Alex Boone go for financial reasons, but should still have an upgraded offensive line and running game. That should put this team in contention for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in NFC North

Detroit Lions 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

The Lions made the playoffs last season, but they were arguably the worst team to make the playoffs. Their 9-7 record was tied for the worst among playoff teams (with Houston) and they were the only team to make the playoffs that didn’t defeat another playoff team, going 0-5 against playoff opponents in the regular season. Despite all 9 of their wins coming against teams that didn’t make the playoffs, only one of them came by more than a touchdown. They made the playoffs, but they did so unimpressively, by squeaking out close victories against unimpressive opponents.

In terms of first down rate differential, they had the worst of any playoff team at -1.90%, which was actually the 5th lowest of any team in the league last season. That’s a bit misleading, as the difference between the 28th and 29th best team in that metric was larger than the difference between the 28th and 14th best team in that metric; last season the NFL had a bunch of mediocre teams, but only a few truly bad ones (Jets, 49ers, Browns, Rams). Still, the Lions were a very underwhelming playoff qualifier and this showed in the first round, when they got bounced by the Seahawks 26-6 in a game where the Seahawks won the first down battle 24-13.

Even though the Lions managed just 182 yards passing in that game, it’s hard to put the blame for the Lions’ mediocrity last season on the passing game, considering it was really the only part of this team that played at an above average level. Quarterback Matt Stafford once again played all 16 games, for the 6th straight season, as he’s turned into a bit of an Ironman despite being plagued by shoulder injuries in the first 2 seasons of his career, and he played at a high level once again. He completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.29 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and finished 9th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus.

This is pretty much par for the course for Stafford, who has completed 62.3% of his passes for an average of 7.21 yards per attempt, 168 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions in his 6 full seasons as the Lions’ starting quarterback. He was a top-13 quarterback on Pro Football Focus in 4 of those 6 seasons and has never ranked lower than 21st in any of those 6 seasons. With Stafford going into the final year of a 3-year, 53 million dollar extension, the Lions are working to get him signed long-term on another extension before the season starts.

The Lions will likely have to pay upwards of 20 million annually, making him one of the highest paid players in the league, but the Lions don’t really have a choice because quarterbacks like Stafford don’t grow on trees. He’s not spectacular, but he’s an above average starter. Unfortunately, he’s not the type of player who can lead a team to a Super Bowl by himself though, so the Lions will need better play around him this season if they are going to have any chance of making a deep run into the playoffs. If they continue to play like they did last season, there’s a good chance they don’t even make the post-season, given how they snuck into the post-season with close wins over mediocre teams in 2016.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Stafford isn’t going it completely alone, as he did get solid play from his receiving corps last season, even with Calvin Johnson surprisingly deciding to retire last off-season. Johnson’s replacement Marvin Jones and holdover Golden Tate both topped 900 yards in 2016 and both graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. Neither player was spectacular, as Marvin Jones was the highest rated of the two at #45, but they both were reliable targets for Stafford and, based on their age and history, it would not be surprising at all if they continued that into 2017.

Tate came over to the Lions from the Seahawks three off-seasons ago on a 5-year, 31 million dollar deal. Tate’s numbers improved significantly from Seattle to Detroit, but that was largely as a result of the fact that he went from one of the run heaviest teams in the league to one of the more pass heavy teams. Even though he didn’t put up huge numbers in Seattle, he still played well. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 6 seasons, making 81 starts over that time period. In fact, his #57 finish in 2016 was his lowest since his rookie year in 2010. From 2013-2015, he was a top-23 wide receiver on Pro Football Focus, so, in that sense, he actually has some bounce back potential in 2017, still just his age 29 season.

Jones was a little bit more expensive to sign, coming over on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal from the Bengals last off-season. He’s also a couple years younger, going into his age 27 season, and less experienced, with 3 years of starting experience. Still, he’s a very solid receiver who has ranked 14th, 38th, and 45th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2013, 2015, and 2016 respectively, with a 2014 season lost to injury in between. Aside from 2014, he’s only missed 1 game in 3 seasons as a starter, so injuries have not been a consistent issue for him.

Tate and Jones are both above average receivers who are younger than 30 and they should remain options 1a and 1b in this passing offense. Tate is an underneath option who caught 91 of 135 targets (67.4%), but only averaged 11.84 yards per catch. Jones, meanwhile, is a deep threat who caught just 55 of 103 targets (53.4%), but averaged 16.91 yards per catch. They go to Tate more often because of the type of routes he runs, but Jones is a the big threat and was actually more efficient on a per target basis last season. They complement each other well.

Tight end Eric Ebron also remains as the 3rd option in the passing game. The 10th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, Ebron came into the league with a ton of potential, but has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career. Ebron had easily his best receiving year in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, catching 61 passes for 711 yards (8th in the NFL among tight ends) and 1 touchdown, but graded out below average on Pro Football Focus for the third straight year because of his complete inability as a run blocker.

There are reasons to be optimistic with him. Ebron was regarded as raw coming out of North Carolina. He is still only going into his age 24 season and has improved as a receiver in every season in the league. He has the frame to become a better blocker at 6-4 253 and he has outstanding athleticism for his size, as he showed when he ran a 4.60 at the combine, an incredible time for a tight end of his size. However, so far in his career he’s been an injury prone, one-dimensional player, never playing more than 14 games in a season and being limited by injuries in countless others, so the Lions’ patience might be wearing thin with him.

The Lions were linked to tight ends in both free agency and the draft this off-season and reportedly made an offer to free agent tight end Jared Cook this off-season, but ultimately ended up with just 4th round pick Michael Roberts, who is more of a blocking complement than a replacement for Ebron. He could play right away in 2-tight end sets because he’s an NFL ready blocker, but he isn’t a threat to Ebron on passing downs. Roberts’ primary competition for the #2 tight end job is veteran Darren Fells, a 4th year player who is also primarily a blocker.

The Lions picked up Ebron’s 5th year option for 2018, which would pay him around 8.25 million, the average of the top-10 tight end salaries in the league, but that’s guaranteed for injury only, so the Lions could cut him next off-season if they feel he’s not worth that salary. Because of his youth and upside, he still has the potential for a breakout season in his 4th year in the league in 2017 if he can stay healthy, but if he doesn’t have that breakout year, this could be his final season in Detroit.

Slot receiver Anquan Boldin and running back Theo Riddick were the Lions’ 4th and 5th best receivers in 2016, putting up 67/584/8 and 53/371/5 slash lines respectively. Boldin remains unsigned as a free agent ahead of his age 37 season, but the Lions haven’t ruled out bringing him back in the same role because he was decent last season. For the time being, it’s unclear who their 3rd receiver is. Keshawn Martin is the only other wide receiver on the roster with more than 15 career catches and he was basically out of the league completely last year, playing just 1 game for the 49ers and not catching a single pass. The Lions did use a 3rd round pick on Northern Illinois’ Kenny Golladay, but it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for a big role as a rookie.

Riddick, meanwhile, remains as the passing down back and he’s one of the better pass catching running backs in the league. Even though he “only” had 53 catches last season, he did it in 10 games, missing 6 with injury. The year before he caught 80 passes for 697 yards and 3 touchdowns in 16 games, meaning he’s averaging about 5.12 catches per game over the past 2 seasons. He’s finished as the #1 and #3 ranked running back in terms of pass catching grade on Pro Football Focus in the last 2 seasons respectively. If he can stay healthy, another 70-80 catches seems likely for him. Aside from the uncertainly at the slot receiver position, this is a solid receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

In addition to having a solid receiving corps last season, Matt Stafford also had a solid offensive line. Even though they lost two starters in free agency, they have a chance to be even better upfront this season. Things looked bleak when right guard Larry Warford and right tackle Riley Reiff signed with the Saints and Vikings respectively on big contracts (4 years 34 million and 5 years 58.75 million respectively), but the Lions signed ex-Packer TJ Lang and ex-Raven Ricky Wagner to big contracts to replace him.

Not only did they save a little bit of money overall, signing Lang for 28.5 million over 3 years and Wagner for 47.5 million over 5 years, they actually upgraded both spots as well. Lang has made 91 starts over the past 6 seasons, finishing in the top-15 among guards on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 4 seasons. For comparison, Warford finished last season 20th among guards. Lang is a little bit older, going into his age 30 season, but interior offensive linemen tend to age pretty well so he should remain an effective player throughout his 3-year deal. Signing him away from division rival Green Bay, where he was dominant for years, is a huge signing for the Lions.

Wagner, meanwhile, has had his ups and downs in 3 years as the starting right tackle in Baltimore (45 starts), but is coming off of a season in which he finished 18th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Wagner also ranked 16th among offensive tackles in 2014, with an underwhelming 2015 season in which he was hampered by a foot injury in between. As long as he’s healthy, he should have another strong year in 2017. Reiff got more money because he has experience on the left side, while Wagner is a pure right tackle, but he’s one of the best pure right tackles in the game, while Reiff finished 48th among 78 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus last season on the right side.

The Lions will only need Wagner to be a pure right tackle because they appear to have found a gem in the first round of last year’s draft in Taylor Decker. The 16th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Decker won Reiff’s left tackle job, moving him to the right side, and made all 16 starts on Stafford’s blindside last season. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked offensive tackle. He’s still pretty unproven, but he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. He could take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league in 2017.

At left guard and center, the Lions have three players who will compete for two spots. Laken Tomlinson was their first round pick in 2015, but he’s struggled in 24 starts in 2 seasons in the league, grading out 53rd out of 81 eligible guards as a rookie and 64th out of 72 eligible guards last season. He was benched in week 7 of last season for rookie Graham Glasgow, but ended up getting his job back later in the season when Glasgow moved to center in place of the injured Travis Swanson. Glasgow didn’t really play much better than Tomlinson and Tomlinson’s draft slot should help him win this job, but he’s running out of chances to prove himself.

Glasgow is also an option to start at center because he was a little bit better at center than he was at guard last season, which makes sense, considering center was his best collegiate position. Swanson is probably the favorite for the job though, as he was pretty solid last season before getting hurt, finishing 17th among 37 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. His history isn’t good, as the 2014 3rd round pick struggled mightily in the first two seasons of his career, including a 2015 season in which he finished 33rd out of 39 eligible centers, but it’s possible he’s turned a corner. Going into his 4th season in the league, his job is probably the more secure of the three. Even with uncertainty at left guard and center, this line is improved over last season’s solid line.

Grade: B+

Running Back

Despite good production in the passing game, the Lions’ offense ranked just 12th in first down rate last season because of their inability to run the ball, as they averaged 3.74 yards per carry, 27th in the NFL. Their improved offensive line should help matters a little bit, but the offensive line wasn’t the problem last season. The problem was the guys running the football. The Lions had high hopes for second year running back Ameer Abdullah, but his season was ended after 2 games and 18 carries by injury.

In his absence, passing down back Theo Riddick actually led the team in carries with 92, even though he’s a 5-9 201 converted college wide receiver who entered the season with a career 2.90 YPC average. Riddick predictably struggled as a runner, rushing for 357 yards and 1 touchdown on those 92 carries, an average of 3.88 YPC. Dwayne Washington (90 carries) and Zach Zenner (88 carries) also struggled, averaging 2.94 yards per carry and 3.80 yards per carry respectively.

Getting Abdullah back from injury should help, though it’s still unclear what the Lions have in him. He was a relatively high pick for a running back, going in the 2nd round in 2015, and has a solid 4.34 YPC average on 161 carries, but he’s coming off of a major injury and has looked lost on passing downs, struggling mightily as a blocker and averaging just 5.45 yards per target on 44 career targets. By default though, he should be an upgrade over what they had last season in his absence and there’s definitely upside here with him still only entering his age 24 season.

Riddick will continue to work as the passing down back and I mentioned his success in that aspect of his game over the past 2 seasons. He probably won’t be any higher than 3rd in line for carries though and could go back to around his 2015 level of carries (43). Zach Zenner is currently penciled Abdullah’s primary backup on early downs and their short yardage back, though the 2015 undrafted free agent is an underwhelming option and has averaged just 3.75 yards per carry on 105 career carries. The Lions didn’t draft a running back at any point, so they seem relatively confident in Zenner behind Abdullah.

Zenner’s only real competition right now is 2016 7th round pick Dwayne Washington, but he averaged just 2.94 yards per carry as a rookie and isn’t even a lock for the final roster., Zenner should be considered the favorite for the complementary back role. Given his size advantage over Abdullah (5-11 221 vs. 5-9 203), he could be their goal line back and vulture a few touchdowns. Getting Abdullah back helps this running back group, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty at the position.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

Despite a weak running game, the Lions’ offense was still pretty good last season thanks to their passing game. However, as I mentioned earlier, their passing game was their only real strength in 2016. The running game was a problem, but the bigger problem was on defense, both stopping the run and the pass. While their offense ranked 12th in first down rate, their defense ranked 29th in first down rate allowed, which is why the Lions were the lowest ranked team playoff team in first down rate differential last season. If they aren’t noticeably improved defensively this season, it’s going to be tough for them to make the playoffs again.

Fortunately, there are some reasons to be optimistic. The biggest one is defensive end Ezekiel Ansah’s bounce back potential. In 2014 and 2015, Ansah combined for 22 sacks and finished in the top-15 among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in both seasons. In 2016, he plummeted to 26th and got to the quarterback just twice. The obvious culprit is the fact that he played most of the season with a bad ankle, so, assuming he’s healthy in 2017, there’s no reason why he couldn’t bounce back. The 5th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Ansah is going into his age 28 season, so he’s still in the prime of his career. With Ansah going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Lions might try to lock him up long-term this off-season. That would be a little bit risky coming off the down year, but it could be worth it if they can get him relatively cheap.

If Ansah can bounce back to pre-2016 form, that will be a big boost for this defense. On the other side of the defense line, Devin Taylor, who made 16 starts in 2016, is no longer with the team, but that’s probably going to prove to be addition by subtraction, as Taylor was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd lowest ranked 4-3 defensive end in the league last season. There’s a reason he remains unsigned as of this writing, despite his starting experience and his relative youth (he will turn 28 this season).

In Taylor’s absence, second year player Kerry Hyder will probably have a bigger role at defensive end. Hyder actually had a pretty big role last season too, even though he only made 2 starts, playing 709 snaps. The 2016 undrafted free agent both played inside and outside, finishing above average on Pro Football Focus and leading the team with 8 sacks. This season, the 6-2 270 pounder will probably be more of a pure defensive end out of necessity. It’s hard to trust a still unproven player that no one wanted to draft a year ago, especially since he had just 3 sacks in the final 12 weeks of the season, but he’s certainly been a pleasant surprise for the Lions and could continue to play well for this team.

The Lions will need both Hyder and Ansah to play at a high level this season because their depth at the defensive end position is very suspect. It’s very surprising that they did not address the position in the draft until the 7th round, when they took Patrick O’Connor, who likely won’t be able to contribute as a rookie and is far from a lock to even make the final roster. The Lions’ other depth options at the position include Anthony Zettel, Armonty Bryant, and Brandon Copeland. Copeland is a 2013 undrafted free agent who didn’t make his NFL debut until 2015 and has spent the last 2 seasons as a reserve linebacker, playing just 140 snaps in 2016. The 6-3 260 pounder is a tweener linebacker/defensive end. Zettel is a 2016 6th round pick who played just 224 snaps as a rookie. Bryant might be their best option because he’s flashed pass rush ability in the past, but he has just 4 career starts since being drafted in the 7th round in 2013 by the Browns and was limited to 5 games with the Lions last season by multiple suspensions and an injury.

At defensive tackle, the Lions have a pair of solid run stuffers in A’Shawn Robinson and Haloti Ngata, but lack a good interior pass rusher and also have depth issues. Robinson is only going into his 2nd season in the league, so the 2016 2nd round pick could take a leap forward in 2017, but the 6-4 320 pounder has always been more of a base package run stuffer than a sub package interior rusher. He played respectably on 446 snaps as a rookie and should push for 500-600 snaps in 2017 if he can stay healthy.

Ngata, meanwhile, is in the opposite part of his career, going into his 12th season in the league and his age 33 season. He’s clearly on the decline, grading out below average last season for the first time in Pro Football Focus’ history, after finishing in the top-18 at his position in every season from 2007-2014. The 6-4 335 pounder isn’t anything more than an adequate run stuffer at this point in his career and could see fewer than the 577 snaps he saw last season. Going into the final year of his contract, Ngata has hinted that this will be his final season in the NFL. He also reportedly strongly considered retirement this off-season.

Given that, it’s surprising that the Lions didn’t add a defensive tackle in the draft until 6th round pick Jeremiah Ledbetter, as they lack depth and a long-term starter inside next to Robinson. Free agent acquisition Cornelius Washington will probably be their primary reserve and play a significant role in sub packages. The 6-4 295 pound converted defensive end has some pass rush ability, but the 364 snaps he played last season were a career high, so it’s unclear how he’ll transition to a bigger role. A 2013 6th round pick, Washington played in just 16 games combined (0 starts) in his first 3 seasons in the league prior to last season.

Washington will be one of the Lions’ two primary interior pass rushers in sub packages, but it’s unclear who will be the second one. A’Shawn Robinson may have to play more sub package snaps out of necessity, even though he’s completely unproven as a pass rusher. The Lions would probably like to line Hyder up inside in passing situations with regularity, but their lack of depth at defensive end will likely prevent that. Their other reserve defensive tackles who could earn a significant role are Khyri Thornton, Jordan Hill, and Akeem Spence.

Hill is the most proven of the three, but he played just 42 snaps with the Jaguars last season, after the Seahawks made him a final cut with an injury designation. Injuries have always been the issue for him, as he played just 27 games in his first 3 seasons with the Seahawks, who drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013. He’s flashed when healthy though, grading out above average in both 2013 and 2015. If he’s healthy, he could carve out a role as an interior pass rusher, but that’s a big if.

While Hill is at least somewhat proven, both Thornton and Spence have both struggled throughout their careers and would be underwhelming options. Spence has made 30 starts in 4 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2013 by the Buccaneers, but he has been among the worst defensive tackles in the league in all 4 seasons. In 2016, he was especially bad, finishing the season as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd lowest ranked eligible defensive tackle on 362 snaps. Thornton, meanwhile, was their 5th lowest ranked eligible defensive tackle on 328 snaps in 2016. Thornton was originally a 3rd round pick by the Packers in 2014, but he never played a snap for them because of injury and has struggled in 2 seasons with the Lions. On top of that, he’s going into his age 28 season, so it’s not like he’s some bright young prospect anymore. The Lions have some good players on the defensive line and should be better than they were last season upfront, but their lack of depth is a major problem.

Grade: C

Linebackers

While the Lions largely ignored the defensive line in the draft, they did use their first round pick to fill a big need at linebacker, selecting Florida’s Jarrad Davis 21st overall. The Lions cut ties this off-season with former All-Pro linebacker DeAndre Levy, who had played just 5 games (248 snaps) the past 2 seasons thanks to injury. After he finished 3rd among 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus in 2014, the Lions re-signed him to a 4-year, 33.75 million dollar deal and paid him 18.25 million dollars over the past 2 seasons for basically nothing. His absence really hurt this linebacking corps.

Davis will play middle linebacker rather than outside linebacker, but he’ll move Tahir Whitehead from middle linebacker to outside linebacker, where he is a more natural fit anyway. Ideally, the Lions would have another good three down linebacker to go with Davis because Whitehead is best off as a pure base package player, but the Lions had a lot of holes to fill this season and it would have been tough to fill them all. A collegiate defensive end who played primarily special teams in his first 2 seasons in the league, Whitehead has been forced into 39 starts over the past 3 seasons because of injury, but has generally played well against the run. He’s been lost in coverage though and is coming off of easily his worst season, finishing dead last among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Perhaps a move back outside will help him, but he’s a liability in coverage regardless of where he lines up.

Free agent acquisition Paul Worrilow is also a liability in coverage, but he’ll play primarily a base package role as the other outside linebacker in Detroit’s 4-3 defense. Worrilow wasn’t bad as a reserve linebacker for the Falcons last season, but he only played 167 snaps and he struggled mightily as a starter in 42 starts from 2013-2015. An undrafted free agent in 2013, Worrilow was wildly under-qualified for a starting job and it showed on the field, as he finished in the bottom-10 among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons. He might be alright in a situational role, but he’s an underwhelming player. Adding a talented rookie linebacker in Jarrad Davis will help, but if a rookie is your best linebacker, it’s probably not a good group.

Grade: C-

Secondary

While the Lions’ front 7 play was pretty terrible in 2016, they actually got some solid play in the secondary. With Ezekiel Ansah having a down year, #1 cornerback Darius Slay was easily the Lions’ best defensive player. A 2013 2nd round pick, Slay has made 45 starts over the past 3 seasons and finished in the top-19 among cornerbacks in all 3 seasons. Only going into his age 26 season, his strong play should continue in 2017. He was a smart re-signing on a 4-year, 48.15 million dollar extension last off-season. He’s just the 10th highest paid cornerback in the NFL.

Opposite him, Nevin Lawson had a mini-breakout season in his first full season as a starter in 2017, finishing 37th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus and making all 16 starts. He’s still a one-year wonder who finished 101st out of 111 eligible cornerbacks in his first season of significant action in 2015, so it’s tough to trust him, but he could have another solid season opposite Slay. Working against him is his size at 5-9 195, which is why he fell to the 4th round in 2014. The Lions used a 2nd round pick on Florida cornerback Teez Tabor, but he’s more of a candidate for the #3 job than a threat to Lawson’s starting job. However, with Lawson going into the final year of his rookie deal, this could be his final season in Detroit.

The #3 cornerback job was the only real weakness in the secondary for the Lions last season, as Quandre Diggs finished 95th among 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus on 423 snaps. Diggs flashed as a rookie in 2015, finishing 33rd among cornerbacks on 484 snaps, but was only a 6th round pick and will be pushed for the #3 job by both Tabor and free agent acquisition DJ Hayden. Hayden isn’t much of an upgrade on Diggs, so Tabor could see time down the stretch, but Hayden is probably the week 1 favorite. A massive bust as the 12th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Hayden has missed 19 games with injury in 4 seasons in the league and has ranked 87th and 96th among cornerbacks in the last 2 seasons respectively.

At safety, Glover Quin and Tavon Wilson both played well last season, finishing 23rd and 21st respectively among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Quin has been one of the more dependable defensive backs in the league over the past 7 seasons, making 112 starts in 112 games, first at cornerback in 2009 and then at safety for the past 6 seasons. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 7 seasons. Going into his age 31 season, his days of finishing in the top-10 of safeties like he did at his peak in 2013 and 2014 are probably behind him, but he’s still an above average starter.

Tavon Wilson, on the other hand, is far less proven as 14 of his 18 career starts came last season. A 2012 2nd round pick, Wilson was primarily a backup in New England for the first 4 seasons of his career, but he always played well in limited action. Even though he’s a one-year starter, because of how he played as a reserve in New England and because he was a 2nd round pick, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had another strong season as a starter in 2017. He’s still only going into his age 27 season, so he should be in the prime of his career. The secondary is the strongest part of this defense.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

As I mentioned in the introduction, the Lions made the playoffs last season with 9 wins over non-playoff teams, with 8 of them being decided by a touchdown or less. If they are going to make the playoffs again this year, they are likely going to have to play significantly better, particularly defensively and in the running game. If they can be healthier, that should be a boost, but it’s not like they had an inordinate amount of injuries last season. Injuries are just part of the game and will likely remain an issue for them this season. There’s talent on this roster, but they have big question marks at running back, left guard, slot receiver, slot cornerback, linebacker, and on the defensive line. On paper, this roster looks average at best. 

Final update: The Lions will be without left tackle Taylor Decker for the first half of the season at least, after he suffered an off-season shoulder injury. That hurts their projection significantly. In addition, defensive end Kerry Hyder is out for the season and fellow defensive end Ezekiel Ansah could miss the start of the season. The Lions will have a tough time making the playoffs again this season.

Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in NFC North

Chicago Bears 2017 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

At the end of last season, the Chicago Bears were on my list of teams that I expected to be significantly improved in 2017 in terms of wins. The Bears won just 3 games in 2016, but finished the season with 2 more first downs than their opponents and ranked 13th in first down rate differential. They went 3-13 because of a 1-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a -20 turnover margin, but both those are both metrics that tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis.

Outside of 20 snaps, this was a competitive football team last season and if they can play more turnover neutral football and execute a little better in close games, that alone will give them a few more wins. On top of that, the Bears were set to get a ton of reinforcements back from injury in 2017, after leading the league in adjusted games lost to injury in 2016, and they had the 3rd pick in the draft and among the most cap space in the league. They checked all the boxes of a team poised for a big jump in win total.

All that being said, I wasn’t impressed with a lot of the moves the Bears made this off-season, so I’m less confident in a big win improvement than I was a few months ago. The most questionable moves they made were at the quarterback position where they used a big chunk of their cap space to sign Tampa Bay backup Mike Glennon to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal and then used their first round pick to select Mitchell Trubisky. Not only did they spend pick #3 on Trubisky, but the Bears also sent another 3 picks to the 49ers (including #67) to move up from 3 to 2 to secure Trubisky, even though, as it was reported later, the 49ers didn’t have another offer on the table for the #2 pick and the Bears could have just drafted him at 3.

On the surface, the moves make a little bit of sense. Mike Glennon’s deal contains just 18.5 million in guaranteed money, so the Bears could conceivably move on from him after this season and get out of the remaining 26.5 million owed to him. Trubisky can spend a year learning behind Glennon and then take over as the starter in 2018. Quarterback is the most important position in the game, so it makes sense to spend a lot of resources to upgrade the position. However, I’m just not sold on either of the two quarterbacks they brought in and it’s very likely they overpaid for both.

Glennon may prove to be a low-end starting quarterback and an adequate stopgap, but he has thrown just 11 passes in the last 2 seasons as the backup to former #1 overall pick Jameis Winston, who replaced Glennon as the starter following the 2014 season. Glennon, a 3rd round pick in 2013, made 18 starts in 2013 and 2014 combined, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.50 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, and showed some potential, but never finished outside of the bottom 3rd of quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus.

Glennon is not an upgrade over Brian Hoyer, who the Bears had last season. Hoyer would have been a cheaper stopgap option, getting just 9 million guaranteed on a 2-year deal worth a maximum of 18 million from the 49ers this off-season, and he completed 67.0% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. There was no need to give Glennon that kind of money, especially since no other teams were offering more than 10 million annually to him.

As for Trubisky, he has more upside than Glennon, but is not NFL ready and is a boom or bust prospect. He has a good arm and impressive accuracy, but he played in a simplistic spread offense in college and made just 13 starts, all of which came last season. At this time last year, he was behind quarterbacks no one has ever heard of on North Carolina’s depth chart, before winning the starting job. He was Pro Football Focus #1 ranked quarterback prospect in a weak quarterback class, but he’s unlikely to have a year 1 impact and the Bears were the only team willing to take him as high as they took him, much like how they were the only team to offer Glennon what they offered him. Quarterback figures to be a position of weakness again in 2017.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

In addition to the mistakes the Bears made at the quarterback position this off-season, they also spent their cap space poorly and failed to noticeably upgrade their roster, despite entering the off-season with among the most cap space in the league. In fact, the Bears’ roster after free agency was arguably worse than it was before free agency because they lost top free agent Alshon Jeffery to the Eagles and he’s a more valuable player than anyone they signed at any position this off-season. Jeffery was one of the best wide receivers in the league over the past 4 seasons. His #33 finish among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2016 was his worst in 4 seasons and he maxed out at 3rd among wide receivers in 2015. Jeffery dealt with durability issues and was suspended for 4 games in 2016, but he will definitely be missed.

To replace Jeffery, the Bears took flyers on Markus Wheaton, Rueben Randle, and Kendall Wright, three receivers who have had success in the league in the past, but who came cheap this off-season for a variety of reasons. The trio has some potential, but, even though all 3 players came relatively cheap, they will make combined this season more than Alshon Jeffery, who signed a 1-year, 8.5 million dollar deal (plus incentives). That’s assuming Randle even makes the roster. None of them will be able to replace Jeffery.

Randle is the worst of the three and is far from a lock to even make the roster. Randle was out of the league entirely in 2016 and has bad knees, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked wide receiver as recently as 2014 and is only going into his age 26 season so he was worth the minimum deal the Bears signed him to. Wright has had the most success of the three, as the 2012 1st round pick had 1000 yards in his 2nd season in the league in 2013 and finished 18th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but he has averaged just 513 yards per season in the 3 seasons since, partially thanks to injuries that limited him to just 35 of a possible 48 games over that time period. He actually graded out above average for just the second time in his career last season, but was buried on the depth chart and played just 308 snaps in 11 games. Still only going into his age 28 season, a fresh start and could do him well and he’s definitely worth the 1-year, 2 million dollar deal he received in free agency, but he doesn’t have that high of an upside.

Markus Wheaton was the most expensive of the three, getting 6 million guaranteed on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal and probably has the inside track for the #3 receiver and primary slot receiver role. Wheaton is also young, going into his age 26 season, and coming off of injury, catching just 4 passes in 3 games last season due to an injured shoulder. Prior to his injury, the 2013 3rd round pick was a capable complementary receiver for the Steelers, but never topped 749 yards (2015) or 45th on Pro Football Focus. If he can stay healthy, he’s a capable 3rd receiver, but probably little else.

With that trio of free agent acquisitions being underwhelming, holdovers Kevin White and Cameron Meredith figure to play the majority of the snaps in 2-wide receiver sets. White is someone they could really use a breakout year from, as they try to replace Jeffery. The 7th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, White has barely been able to get onto the field because of injury thus far in his career. After missing his entire rookie season with a broken leg, White was limited to 4 underwhelming games (19/187/0) thanks to more leg injuries in 2016. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential for a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league, but he’s a huge question mark.

Fortunately, the Bears have an undrafted free agent from 2015 who has picked up White’s slack, as Cameron Meredith, formerly of Illinois State, actually led them in receiving in 2016 with Jeffery missing 4 games with suspension, catching 66 passes for 888 yards and 4 touchdowns and finishing 53rd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Meredith is a one-year wonder and probably isn’t anything more than a solid #2 receiver long-term, but he’s easily the Bears’ most reliable pass catcher with Jeffery gone. The Bears desperately need someone else other than him to step up in the passing game, but there’s a good chance he finishes the season as the Bears’ leading receiver for the 2nd straight year.

In addition to the three wide receivers they signed, the Bears also signed a tight end in free agency, giving Dion Sims a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal. Much like most of the Bears’ signings this off-season, it was an overpay. The 6-4 271 pound ex-Dolphin is an adequate blocker, but isn’t a threat in the passing game. Sims caught just 26 passes last season, despite being the Dolphins’ primary pass catching tight end for most of the season after Jordan Cameron went down for the season with a concussion, and he’s averaged just 9.45 yards per catch on 74 career catches since entering the league as a 4th round pick in 2013. He’s never once graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons and ranked 38th among tight ends in 2016. He wasn’t worth half of what the Bears paid him.

He’ll compete for playing time with veteran holdover Zach Miller and 2nd round rookie Adam Shaheen. Shaheen is an incredible athlete at 6-6 278 and has great upside, but would ideally spend his whole rookie season as the 3rd tight end as he transitions from Division II Ashland. Whether or not the Bears have the luxury to be patient with Shaheen depends on how Sims performs and whether or not Miller can stay healthy, which he unfortunately has never been able to.

A 2009 6th round pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miller never had more than 21 catches in a season in 3 seasons with the Jaguars and then missed 3 whole seasons from 2012-2014 with injury, but has shockingly played well in each of the past 2 seasons for the Bears, finishing 8th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in both seasons. He’s never played more than 579 snaps in a season and there are plenty of reasons to questions his ability to perform in 2017, given that he’s going into his age 33 season and coming off yet another foot injury, but he does have some upside. Expect him to be the “move” tight end, with Sims playing the inline role. Miller might be their 2nd most reliable pass catcher behind Cameron Meredith, which is reason for concern with Mike Glennon’s receiving corps.

Grade: C

Running Backs

The one strength of the Bears’ offense last season was the running game, led by 5th round rookie running back Jordan Howard, who burst onto the scene with 1313 yards and 6 touchdowns on 252 carries last season, finishing 7th on Pro Football Focus among running backs. He was overshadowed by fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, but finished 2nd in rushing yards and 3rd in first downs behind him on a worse offense, despite 70 fewer carries and despite not taking over as the starter until week 4. His 5.21 YPC average was a tenth of a point higher than Elliott’s and second highest in the league. If not for Elliott and teammate Dak Prescott having outstanding rookie years, Howard would have been the easy Offensive Rookie of the Year choice.

Howard was the biggest reason why the Bears finished 13th in first down rate last season, despite issues at the quarterback position and in the receiving corps. Considering they have issues at quarterback and in the receiving corps once again, the Bears will need him to repeat his 2016 season if they’re going to have any chance at being respectable offensively this season. Howard is a good player, but that’s easier said than done. Not only is he a still unproven former 5th round pick, but repeating what he did last season is hard for any running back.

In fact, the only players in NFL history to have 250+ carries and average 5+ yards per carry in back-to-back seasons are Tiki Barber (2005-2006), Marshall Faulk (1999-2001), Clinton Portis (2002-2003), Barry Sanders (1989-1990, 1996-1997), and OJ Simpson (1973-1974). Howard could definitely have another strong season and average 4.5-4.7 yards per carry on 250-300 carries, but he’s unlikely to be as efficient as he was in 2016 and there’s definitely major downside here because the running back position tends to be inconsistent and injury prone.

The Bears’ depth behind Howard is pretty poor too, as the Bears averaged just 3.40 yards per carry on carries by running backs other than Howard last season, 1.81 yards per carry less than Howard. His primary backups are Jeremy Langford, owner of a career 3.51 YPC average on 210 carries, and Ka’Deem Carey, owner of a career 3.99 YPC average on 111 carries. The Bears also used a 4th round pick on Tarik Cohen out of North Carolina A&T, but he’s very undersized at 5-7 179 and isn’t anything more than a gadget player. Howard seems to have a very bright future, but he can’t be the Bears’ only playmaker.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Howard isn’t the only reason why the Bears had success on the ground last season though, as they got pretty solid play from the interior of their offensive line, especially in run blocking. They were unable to block for big gains for any of the Bears’ backup running backs, but that was more the fault of the backs. When healthy, the Bears’ interior offensive line of Josh Sitton (left guard), Cody Whitehead (center), and Kyle Long (right guard) is one of the best in the NFL. Unfortunately, both Sitton and Long did deal with injury problems last season, as did many members of this Bears’ team.

Long’s injuries were worse, as he was limited by a shoulder injury early in the year and then went down for the season with an ankle injury after just 8 games. Long’s recovery has had some complications this off-season, but he is still expected to be ready for training camp, which would be a big boost to this offensive line. Despite the shoulder injury, Long was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked guard when he was on the field and he was their 12th ranked guard in 2014 as well, with an underwhelming stint at right tackle in 2015 between. Barring further injury, he should play at a high level again in his age 29 season in 2017.

Sitton’s injury was less serious, but he did miss 4 games with an ankle injury. He was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked guard when on the field. That’s impressive, but what’s even more impressive is that’s his lowest rank since 2008, as he finished in the top-8 among guards on Pro Football Focus in 7 straight seasons prior to last season. Going into his age 31 season, his best days might be behind him, but he’s still a very valuable interior offensive lineman. He’s also been an ironman over the years, missing just 2 games from 2009-2015 before the 4 games he missed last season, so he should be more available this season than he was last season. The Packers likely regret cutting him to save 6.85 million last off-season, now that he’s continuing to play at a high level with a division rival.

Whitehair, fortunately, did not miss a game last season and he was arguably the best of the three, finishing 6th among centers on Pro Football Focus in 2016, as a mere 2nd round rookie. A collegiate left tackle at Kansas State, Whitehair seamlessly transitioned from left guard to left guard and then to center when Josh Sitton was signed. Like fellow rookie Jordan Howard, Whitehair far outplayed his draft slot as a rookie and, though he’s unproven, he has a very bright future. If he, Long, and Sitton all stay healthy this season, this is a very strong interior offensive line.

Unfortunately, the same can not be said about the tackle position for the Bears, where Charles Leno and Bobby Massie are underwhelming starters. Both are experienced (30 career starts for Leno, 61 for Massie), but their experience hasn’t been very good, as neither has ever graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in a single season. It’s a bit surprising that the Bears didn’t add a single offensive tackle in the draft, especially with Leno going into the final year of his rookie deal, but when you trade 4 picks to get Mitchell Trubisky, it’s tough to address all your needs. It’s a solid offensive line, but one that’s going to be susceptible to pressure off the edge.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

In addition to the injuries they had an offense last season, the Bears also had several key players injured on defense, including nose tackle Eddie Goldman. A second round pick in 2015, Goldman looked on his way to a promising breakout second season before injuries limited him to 197 snaps in 6 games. When on the field, he was a top-26 interior defensive lineman, after finishing 36th at that position as a rookie. If he can stay healthy in his 3rd year in the league, he could easily have the breakout year that injuries robbed him of in 2016. A 6-4 320 pounder, Goldman is primarily a run stuffer, but moves well for his size and can play a little bit in sub packages as an interior pass rusher. His ceiling is probably around 650-700 snaps, but he can still be a difference maker for them inside if healthy.

In Goldman’s absence, free agent acquisition Akiem Hicks was the Bears’ best defensive linemen in his first season with the Bears. The former Saint and Patriot, Hicks had the best season of his career in his 5th season in the league in 2016, playing 931 snaps and finishing 6th among 3-4 defensive ends. A true every down player, Hicks moves well for his size at 6-5 336 and plays well both as a run stuffer and a pass rusher. Hicks was the Bears’ defensive MVP on a unit that actually ranked a respectable 17th in first down rate allowed, despite a poor secondary. Hicks is not a one-year wonder either, as he’s graded out above average in every season he’s been in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2012. He figures to have another strong season in 2017, just his age 28 season.

Free agent acquisition Jaye Howard will likely be the 3rd defensive lineman. Re-signed to a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal last off-season by the Chiefs, Howard is an above average player when healthy, but was limited to 8 games by injury last season and was subsequently cut by the Chiefs this off-season, who would have owed him 6 million. He’ll make less than half of that with the Bears this season and he’s a bounce back candidate, considering he’s graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus and made 24 starts in 32 games for the Chiefs in 2014 and 2015. Howard will be backed up by 2016 3rd round pick Jonathan Bullard. Ballard struggled on 296 snaps as a rookie, but figures to have a bigger role in his second season in the league. Ballard was widely regarded as a steal in the third round and many expected him to go in the top-50 picks.

The Bears also like to line up outside linebackers Pernell McPhee and LaMarr Houston inside on passing downs, since both are bigger linebackers at 270+ and both have experience rushing from the inside. Both had injury plagued seasons last year though, particularly Houston, who was limited to 2 games by his second torn ACL in 3 seasons. Prior to the injuries, Houston was a solid player for the Raiders, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons since the first ACL tear. Now going into his age 30 season and coming off a second ACL tear, his best days are likely behind him. He’ll play a rotational role at most, assuming he stays healthy and even makes the final roster.

McPhee, on the other hand, has much more upside and having him back healthy could be very valuable for this defense, after he was limited to 9 injury plagued games in 2016 by knee problems. McPhee has never posted great sack numbers, but plays the run well and is one of the most efficient pressurers of the quarterback on a per snap basis over his career. The 2011 5th round pick has graded out above average in all 6 seasons in the league and has been a top-3 player at his position three times (2014 and 2015 at outside linebacker, 2011 at defensive tackle). He’s never played more than 594 snaps in a season, as he was a rotational player in Baltimore for the first 4 years of his career and has had knee issues in his 2 seasons in Chicago. If he can stay healthy, he’s a versatile piece for this defense that can play outside linebacker, defensive end, and defensive tackle and rush the passer both from the inside and the outside. The Bears have an underrated defensive front with McPhee and Goldman back healthy.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

In base packages, McPhee and Houston will primarily play outside linebacker, with Willie Young and Leonard Floyd, their best edge rushers, playing in sub packages. The veteran Young led all Chicago outside linebackers in snaps last season with 715. Proven in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defense, Young has graded out above average in 5 of 7 seasons in the league, since going in the 4th round in 2010, maxing out at 13th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013 and 13th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2015. The one concern with him is he’s already heading into his age 32 season, so he could be on the decline.

With Young aging, the Bears need last year’s first round pick Leonard Floyd, 9th overall out of Georgia, to step up in his 2nd year in the league, after grading out slightly below average on 537 snaps as a rookie. Floyd has potential long-term, but is still raw and remains undersized at 6-6 244. The Bears also have Sam Acho as a deep reserve, but they’ll want to avoid having to give him 500 snaps like they did last season, when he struggled mightily. He’s graded out above average just once in 6 seasons in the league.

At inside linebacker, the Bears have another player coming off of injury, but one that might not be ready to go for the start of the season, as talented linebacker Danny Trevathan tore his patellar tendon in week 12 last season. The list of players that returned to form after a patellar tendon tear is pretty short and Trevathan will be just 9 months removed from the injury by week 1. If he contributes at all in 2017, I don’t expect him at full strength, a shame because he’s finished in the top-32 of linebackers on Pro Football Focus in his last 3 healthy seasons. The good news is he has youth on his side, only going into his age 27 season.

Fortunately, the Bears have a capable replacement on the roster in Christian Jones, who has 20 career starts. Thirteen of those starts came in 2015, when he actually graded out above average on Pro Football Focus, 38th among linebackers. He’s good insurance for Trevathan inside next to Jerrell Freeman, another talented veteran linebacker. Freeman has broken out in the past 2 seasons, finishing 4th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus in 2015 and 1st in 2016. That came after he finished just 39th among 60 eligible middle linebackers in 2014. He’s no spring chicken, going into his age 31 season, and he missed 4 games at the end of last season after failing a performance enhancing drug test, which makes his sudden leap in play over the past 2 seasons suspicious. I’m skeptical he can continue to play at as high of a level in 2017, but he should still be an asset for this team, especially with Trevathan injured. Freeman is the best linebacker in a solid group.

Grade: B

Secondary

Not all of the Bears’ off-season signings were overpays that likely won’t help this team, as the Bears did add a couple nice pieces to their secondary, a big need this off-season. The Bears’ front 7 was solid last season even with injuries, but both cornerback and safety were big problem positions for them last season. Prince Amukamara, signed from Jacksonville this off-season, will slot in immediately as the Bears’ #1 cornerback, while Quintin Demps, signed from Houston this off-season, will fill a big hole at safety next to Adrian Amos.

Amukamara is a talented cornerback, but the Bears only signed him to a one-year deal, so he’s not exactly the franchise building block the Bears needed to find in free agency this off-season. The reason he was limited to a one-year deal for the second straight off-season is his durability, as he has missed 27 games in 7 seasons in the league and has only once played more than 14 games. He was paid pretty well on a one-year deal, as he’ll make 7 million this season. While durability is certainly a concern, he doesn’t lack talent, as the former first round pick has graded out above average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the league, including 32nd in 2015 and 41st in 2016. He’s easily the Bears’ best cornerback.

Quintin Demps, meanwhile, was signed to a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal. He’s not exactly the franchise building block they needed either, as he’s going into his age 32 season, but he should be a big help. Despite his age, he’s actually coming off arguably the best season of his career, finishing 12th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. It’ll be tough for him to repeat the best season of his career again in 2017 given his age and he’s graded out above average in just one other season in his 9-year career (2015). Still, he’s an experienced starter (41 career starts, including 26 in the last 2 seasons) and a needed addition to this secondary at a reasonable price.

Not all of the Bears’ free agent additions to the secondary were smart moves though, as they also signed Marcus Cooper to a 3-year, 16 million dollar deal. A 2013 7th round pick, Cooper struggled mightily in the first extended starting experience of his career in 2016, finishing 100th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks in 15 games (13 starts) with the Cardinals. There’s a reason the Chiefs traded him to the Cardinals for a conditional 2018 7th round pick prior to final cuts last season. If they had been unable to trade him, they probably would have released him outright. I don’t know what he’s done in the year since to make him worth 16 million dollars on a 3-year deal. He’ll replace free agent departure Tracy Porter as a starting cornerback and figures to struggle again like he did in 2016.

Prior to last season, 2014 1st round pick Kyle Fuller was the Bears’ best cornerback. He seemed to have a bright future ahead of him, after finishing 37th among eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in his second year in the league in 2015, but he has had a rough year since. Not only did he miss all of 2016 with a knee injury, but he appears to no longer be on good terms with the organization, who reportedly were unhappy with how slow his injury recovery was taking and questioned his work ethic.

Despite his talent and the fact that they used a first round pick on him just 3 years ago, the Bears declined his 5th year option for 2018 and are reportedly looking to trade him this off-season. If they are unable to move him, they might cut him, despite a very reasonable 1.6 million dollar salary. His 2015 season shows his upside when he’s healthy and he’s only going into his age 25 season, but that season was sandwiched in between a rookie season where he was hobbled by an ankle injury and last year’s lost season, so there’s definitely reason for concern with him even before you get into his work ethic.

With Amukamara and Cooper coming in, Fuller will be no better than 3rd on the depth chart, if he even makes the Bears’ final roster. He’ll compete with youngsters Cre’von LeBlanc (2nd year) and Bryce Callahan (3rd year), as well as journeyman free agent acquisition BW Webb. With Fuller injured, LeBlanc and Callahan actually finished 2nd and 3rd respectively on the Bears in cornerback snaps played last season, with 696 and 489 respectively, and both held up surprisingly well considering they’re recent undrafted free agents; both finished just below average among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus.

Callahan also held up surprisingly well on 329 snaps as a rookie in 2015 too. Both are probably better off as #4 cornerbacks, but it’s very possible one of them is their 3rd cornerback this year ahead of Fuller. Webb is just on the roster for depth purposes and should not play anywhere near the 588 snaps he played with the Saints last season again. Webb is on his 5th team in as many seasons in the league since the Cowboys drafted him in the 4th round in 2013. He’s finished below average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons he’s played and he’s far from a lock to even make the Bears’ roster, even as thin as they are at cornerback. It’s strange that the Bears didn’t add a cornerback in the draft, though they did have other needs and only 5 picks after their trades.

As I mentioned earlier, Adrian Amos remains as the other starting safety next to Demps. Amos isn’t a big name, but he was Chicago’s best defensive back in 2017, finishing 26th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. A mere 5th round pick in 2015, Amos has far exceeded the expectations of his draft slot, making 30 starts in 2 seasons in the league and finishing in the top-29 safeties on Pro Football Focus in both seasons. He should have another similar season in 2017. Amukamara and Demps make this a better secondary, but they definitely still have issues on the backend of their defense.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

Like I said in early part of this preview, I was expecting a big jump in wins from the Bears from 2016 to 2017 until their off-season. They should have a better turnover margin, a better record in close games, and fewer injuries in 2017, but I just can’t get past the fact that they had one of the top picks in the draft and among the most cap space in the league and all they really have to show for it in terms of players who will make an impact in 2017 is Prince Amukamara, Quintin Demps, and maybe Jaye Howard.

Massive overpays of players like Mike Glennon, Markus Wheaton, Dion Sims, and Marcus Cooper were not wise uses of cap space. Add in the departure of Alshon Jeffery in free agency and the souring of the relationship between Kyle Fuller and the organization, following his absence due to injury for the entire 2016 season, and it’s tough to see this team being a real playoff contender. They should still have a decent sized jump in wins though, just because they weren’t nearly as bad as their record suggested in 2016, despite all their injuries, so taking the over on their odds maker projected win total of 5.5 makes a lot of sense. 

Final update: The Bears have already lost wide receiver Cameron Meredith, outside linebacker LaMarr Houston, and defensive end Jaye Howard for the season with injury, but the Bears will be getting middle linebacker Danny Trevathan back for the start of the season, which definitely helps. I wish the Bears did a better job this off-season, but it shouldn’t be hard for them to win a few more games than last season.

Prediction: 6-10, 4th in NFC North

2017 NFL Mock Draft (Day 2)

stevenlourie Uncategorized

*=player has had private visit/workout with team

  1. Green Bay Packers – G Forest Lamp (Western Kentucky)
  2. Seattle Seahawks – CB Kevin King (Washington)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Davis Webb (California)
  4. Chicago Bears – CB Chidobe Awuzie (Colorado)
  5. Los Angeles Rams – WR Isaiah Jones (East Carolina)
  6. Los Angeles Chargers – S Obi Melifonwu (Connecticut)
  7. New York Jets – OLB Jordan Willis (Kansas State)
  8. Carolina Panthers – S Josh Jones (NC State)*
  9. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Joe Mixon (Oklahoma)*
  10. New Orleans Saints – DE Derek Rivers (Youngstown State)*
  11. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State)*
  12. Buffalo Bills – WR Chris Godwin (Penn State)
  13. Arizona Cardinals – QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)*
  14. Indianapolis Colts – DE Malik McDowell (Michigan State)*
  15. Baltimore Ravens – OT Cam Robinson (Alabama)*
  16. Minnesota Vikings – G Dan Feeney (Indiana)*
  17. Washington Redskins – MLB Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt)
  18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Marcus Maye (Florida)*
  19. Denver Broncos – DE Chris Wormley (Michigan)
  20. Cleveland Browns – CB Quincy Wilson (Florida)*
  21. Detroit Lions – DE Carl Lawson (Auburn)
  22. Miami Dolphins – S Justin Evans (Texas A&M)*
  23. New York Giants – OT Antonio Garcia (Troy)
  24. Oakland Raiders – MLB Raekwon McMillan (Ohio State)*
  25. Houston Texans – OT Taylor Moton (Western Michigan)
  26. Seattle Seahawks – OLB Tim Williams (Alabama)*
  27. Kansas City Chiefs – WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC)
  28. Dallas Cowboys – CB Fabian Moreau (UCLA)*
  29. Green Bay Packers – CB Sidney Jones (Washington)
  30. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Josh Reynolds (Texas A&M)*
  31. Atlanta Falcons – S Budda Baker (Washington)*
  32. Carolina Panthers – DE Tarell Basham (Ohio)*
  33. Cleveland Browns – S Marcus Williams (Utah)
  34. San Francisco 49ers – CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Colorado)*
  35. San Francisco 49ers – WR Carlos Henderson (Louisiana Tech)
  36. Jacksonville Jaguars – G Dorian Johnson (Pittsburgh)
  37. Los Angeles Rams – TE Gerald Everett (South Alabama)
  38. New York Jets – CB Damontae Kazee (San Diego State)*
  39. Los Angeles Chargers – QB Joshua Dobbs (Tennessee)*
  40. New England Patriots – DE DeMarcus Walker (Florida State)*
  41. Cincinnati Bengals – DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (Villanova)*
  42. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Tyus Bowser (Houston)*
  43. Buffalo Bills – S Tedric Thompson (Colorado)*
  44. New Orleans Saints – WR Curtis Samuel (Ohio State)
  45. Arizona Cardinals – G Dion Dawkins (Temple)
  46. Baltimore Ravens – WR Chad Hansen (California)
  47. Minnesota Vikings – RB Alvin Kamara (Tennessee)*
  48. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shaquill Griffin (Central Florida)*
  49. Washington Redskins – QB Nathan Peterman (Washington)
  50. Denver Broncos – TE Jordan Leggett (Clemson)
  51. Tennessee Titans – TE Jonnu Smith (Florida International)*
  52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Desmond King (Iowa)
  53. Detroit Lions – TE Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech)
  54. Minnesota Vikings – DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Alabama)
  55. New York Giants – RB Elijah McGuire (Louisiana)*
  56. Oakland Raiders – OT Julien Davenport (Bucknell)*
  57. Houston Texans – OLB Ryan Anderson (Alabama)
  58. Seattle Seahawks – OT Roderick Johnson (Florida State)
  59. Buffalo Bills – TE Adam Shaheen (Ashland)
  60. Dallas Cowboys – TE Jake Butt (Michigan)
  61. Green Bay Packers – RB Samaje Perine (Oklahoma)
  62. Pittsburgh Steelers – MLB Anthony Walker (Northwestern)
  63. Seattle Seahawks – DT Eddie Vanderdoes (UCLA)
  64. New England Patriots – TE George Kittle (Iowa)
  65. Miami Dolphins – G Isaac Asiata (Utah)*
  66. Carolina Panthers – WR Malachi Dupre (LSU)*
  67. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Shelton Gibson (West Virginia)*
  68. Tennessee Titans – CB Cornelius Elder (Miami)*
  69. Denver Broncos – RB Marlon Mack (South Florida)*
  70. Seattle Seahawks – WR Amara Darboh (Michigan)
  71. New Orleans Saints – MLB Alex Anzalone (Florida)
  72. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Brian Hill (Wyoming)*
  73. Pittsburgh Steelers – S Montae Nicholson (Michigan State)*
  74. Seattle Seahawks – G Nico Siragusa (San Diego State)
  75. New York Jets – WR Damore’ea Stringfellow (Mississippi)*

2017 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Mock Draft, Uncategorized

Updated: 4/27/17

*=player has had private visit/workout with team

1. Cleveland Browns – DE Myles Garrett (Texas A&M)*

Typically, the top pick in the draft is a quarterback, as a non-quarterback has gone #1 overall just 5 times in the last 19 drafts. In 3 off those instances, the team drafting #1 overall simply didn’t feel the need to upgrade at the quarterback position, as the 2000 Browns, 2006 Texans, and 2013 Chiefs all did not draft a quarterback at any point in that draft. The two exceptions were the 2008 Dolphins selecting Jake Long over Matt Ryan and drafting Chad Henne in the 2nd round and the 2014 Texans selecting Jadeveon Clowney over guys like Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr and then selecting Tom Savage in the 4th round.

The Browns figure to be the third exception. Not only is this a weak quarterback class at the top, but the Browns also select again at 12 and likely feel they can get a quarterback they like with that pick. There isn’t an obvious fit for a quarterback between 1 and 12, so it’s very possible the Browns will have the same choices of quarterbacks when they pick again as they do here. Instead, the Browns select the consensus top player in the draft, Myles Garrett, who will be an instant upgrade for the Browns at defensive end, as they transition to a 4-3 defense.

2. Carolina Panthers (TRADE) – RB Leonard Fournette (LSU)*

It’s no secret that the 49ers are looking to move down from two. With needs all over the field and no consensus #2 overall player in this draft, the 49ers likely feel they can move down into the 6-10 range, still grab a player they really like, and pick up additional picks in the process. The Panthers, meanwhile, are known to covet LSU running back Leonard Fournette and may be willing to move up to grab him. In this scenario, the Panthers send the 49ers the 3rd round compensation pick they got from losing Josh Norman last off-season (#98) and a 2018 1st round pick, which they likely think will be in the mid to late 20s, to move up from 8 to 2 to grab their feature back of the future. Jonathan Stewart is nearing the end of his time in Carolina.

3. Chicago Bears – CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State)*

Lattimore is a strong candidate to go #2 to the 49ers because he is the best available player that fills a major need for them. The 49ers would probably prefer to move down for another player instead of taking him at 2, but, if they do take Lattimore, that would make the Bears a candidate to move down with a team like Carolina that is looking to leapfrog the Jaguars for Fournette. In this scenario, Lattimore is available and they make the easy choice and fill a huge need with this draft class’ top cornerback. I think it’s Lattimore or trade down for both the 49ers and Bears.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (TRADE) – DE Solomon Thomas (Stanford)

The Jaguars are known to covet Leonard Fournette and will probably end up with him unless someone leapfrogs them for him via draft, as the 49ers and Bears aren’t realistic candidates to draft Fournette. The Bears have Jordan Howard, who rushed for over 1000 yards as a rookie last season, and Fournette doesn’t fit the prototype of what 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan looks for in a running back. In this scenario, the Panthers leapfrog the Jaguars for Fournette, leaving the Jaguars with a tough choice. They’re known to like tight end OJ Howard, but likely feel they can get him a few picks later, so a trade down makes a lot of sense. The Bengals are a candidate to move up and grab this draft class’ second best defensive lineman, Solomon Thomas, who would fill a need for them at both defensive end (in base packages) and defensive tackle (in sub packages). He’s a great prospect, but isn’t an ideal fit for either San Francisco, Chicago, or Jacksonville because none of those teams have a big need for an interior pass rusher. The Bengals send their 2nd rounder to Jacksonville in order to move up.

5. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – QB Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina)*

The trades continue, as the Titans will likely try to move down unless Lattimore falls to them. The Titans’ big needs are at cornerback, middle linebacker, and wide receiver and any player at those 3 positions would be a reach at this point. The Browns, meanwhile, are reportedly looking to move up to secure Mitch Trubisky, who is apparently the quarterback they want. There isn’t a clear spot for a quarterback in the top-10, but the Browns might not be wrong that they have to move up to get him, as other teams could want to jump them for Trubisky. Moving ahead of the Jets, the quarterback-neediest team in the top-10, makes sense, especially since Tennessee is a willing trade partner. The Titans recoup the second round pick (#52) they sent to the Browns last year on draft day and get a late round pick to move down from 5 to 12. The Browns have 22 picks over the next 2 years, so they have some serious trade ammunition and probably intend to use it.

6. New York Jets – S Jamal Adams (LSU)*

The Jets are probably Jamal Adams’ floor. He might be the second best player in the draft, but there isn’t an obvious fit for him in the top-5 because the 49ers, Bears, Jaguars, and Titans are all set at safety right now. That doesn’t mean one of them won’t fall in love with him and draft him anyway or that a team won’t trade up ahead of the Jets to get him, but the Jets at 6 seem like the most likely spot for him. Adams would be a massive upgrade over both Calvin Pryor and Marcus Gilchrist. Pryor is going into the final year of his rookie deal, while Gilchrist’s status for 2017 is in doubt after rupturing his patellar tendon in December.

7. San Diego Chargers – DT Jonathan Allen (Alabama)*

Like Thomas and Adams, Jonathan Allen is another player that doesn’t have an obvious fit earlier than this unless someone trades up for him. The 49ers, Bears, Jaguars, Titans, and Jets all have much bigger needs than interior pass rusher. That’s good news for the Chargers, who are moving to a 4-3 and need another defensive tackle inside next to Corey Liuget. Last year’s first round pick Joey Bosa rushes the passer from the interior in obvious passing situations, but Allen is a true every down 3-technique defensive tackle.

8. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – RB Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)

I mentioned earlier that Leonard Fournette doesn’t fit the Shanahan running back prototype. Well, Christian McCaffrey fits like a glove and the 49ers pick up a future first round pick moving down from 2 to 8 to grab him. Carlos Hyde is currently the 49ers’ lead back, but he’s injury prone and going into the final year of his deal and doesn’t do much as a pass catcher, which hurts him in the 49ers’ new offense. It’s no secret the new coaching staff is not sold on him, meaning he’ll likely be let go as a free agent this off-season. In 2017, he can serve as a power complement to McCaffrey, who is a speedier, quicker back with great hands out of the backfield, and then McCaffrey can be the feature back in 2018.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE) – TE OJ Howard (Alabama)*

With Fournette off the board at 4, OJ Howard becomes the likely target for the Jaguars, as they have a huge hole at tight end after trading away Julius Thomas. Howard is one of the best tight end prospects in years, but 4 would be the highest a tight end has ever gone and the Jaguars can likely get him a few picks later, which is why they traded down. In this scenario, it works out perfectly, though Howard is going to be a candidate for the Jets at 6, especially if Jamal Adams is off the board.

10. Buffalo Bills – S Malik Hooker (Ohio State)

The Bills have bigger needs at cornerback and wide receiver, but Malik Hooker is too good for them to pass on here and he also fills a need. The Bills currently have Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer penciled in at safety, but Hyde will play slot cornerback in sub packages and Poyer is a mediocre starter. Hooker can start next to Hyde with Poyer coming in as a 3rd safety when Hyde covers the slot in sub packages. Hooker could have been a top-5 pick, even ahead of Jamal Adams, if not for shoulder surgery that will keep him out until training camp. He falls out of circumstance and could be the next Earl Thomas for the Bills if he develops and stays healthy.

11. New Orleans Saints – DE Derek Barnett (Tennessee)*

It should come as no surprise when the Saints double up on defensive players in the first round (unless they trade one of the picks to New England for cornerback Malcolm Butler). The Saints traded away wide receiver Brandin Cooks for a first round pick because they had an excess of good wide receivers and major holes on defense, particularly at cornerback and defensive end. I expect them to target those positions in the first round. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is an option here, but reports say the Saints are targeting defensive end at 11 due to the depth of this cornerback class. Barnett fills a major need opposite Cameron Jordan, the only Saints defensive end to have more than a sack and a half last season, and they can target a cornerback at 32.

12. Tennessee Titans (TRADE) – WR Mike Williams (Clemson)*

I mentioned earlier that the Titans’ biggest needs are at middle linebacker, cornerback, and wide receiver. They moved down 7 spots and no players at those positions were drafted in those 7 picks, so the trade works out perfectly for Tennessee, who previously didn’t have a second round pick. Middle linebacker Reuben Foster and cornerback Marlon Humphrey are options here, but Mike Williams is someone the Titans have shown a lot of interest in and it’s very possible he’s the highest ranked player left on their board at this point. He’d fill a need instantly opposite Rishard Matthews.

13. Arizona Cardinals – QB Pat Mahomes (Texas Tech)*

The Cardinals are in an interesting position in the first round. They won 13 games in 2015 and were much better than their 7-8-1 record suggested last season, but they suffered many losses on defense this off-season and, with Carson Palmer going into his age 38 season, their championship window might have closed. They could select a non-quarterback in the first round who can contribute instantly, like middle linebacker Reuben Foster, middle linebacker Haason Reddick, or cornerback Marlon Humphrey, try to win in 2017, and then address the quarterback position in 2018. Or, they could take a quarterback of the future like Pat Mahomes, who has great upside, the best arm in the draft, and is known to be liked by head coach Bruce Arians. Drafting Mahomes wouldn’t be an admission that they aren’t trying to compete in 2017, but it will make doing so harder. Both the coaching staff and the front office have pretty good job security at the moment though, so they may be willing to take the risk and pull the trigger on a quarterback.

14. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Charles Harris (Missouri)*

Connor Barwin was released this off-season because he was set to make a significant amount of money and wasn’t a good fit in Philadelphia’s 4-3 defense in 2016. They need a long-term complement to Brandon Graham, as free agent acquisition Chris Long is just a stopgap at best going into his age 32 season and Vinny Curry lines up inside at defensive tackle in most passing situations. Harris would be a much better fit for their defense than Barwin.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Marlon Humphrey (Alabama)

The Colts didn’t do much to upgrade their defense in the draft in 2016, focusing on the offensive line instead, and it showed, as the Colts’ aging defense couldn’t stop anyone in 2016. I expect defense to be the focus for the Colts in the draft this year, with few needs on offense and needs on all 3 levels of the defense. Humphrey could easily be seen as the top rated defensive player left on the board and would fill a huge need at cornerback opposite Vontae Davis, where the inexperienced Rashaan Melvin is currently penciled in as the starter.

16. Baltimore Ravens – OT Cam Robinson (Alabama)*

The Ravens took an offensive tackle in the first round last year, but they could easily do so again this year, after losing Ricky Wagner to the Lions in free agency. They have some internal options they like, but they’re also really known to like Cam Robinson, who went to the University of Alabama, Ravens’ GM Ozzie Newsome’s alma mater. There’s a good chance he’ll be seen as the best available remaining player that makes sense, though there are a lot of different ways this pick could go, including wide receiver (John Ross or Corey Davis).

17. Washington Redskins – MLB Haason Reddick (Temple)*

Middle linebacker was a major issue for the Redskins this season. They addressed it in free agency with Zach Brown, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and they could use an upgrade at the other middle linebacker position as well. Reddick is a rising prospect that the Redskins are known to like. He’s a versatile player who can also line up as an edge rusher in passing situations, which is good for the Redskins, who like to drop safety Su’a Cravens down to middle linebacker in sub packages. Reddick could be a Jamie Collins type player in the NFL and makes a lot of sense here.

18. Tennessee Titans – CB Chidobe Awuzie (Colorado)*

As I mentioned earlier, cornerback, wide receiver, and middle linebacker are the Titans’ biggest needs. The Titans addressed wide receiver earlier with Mike Williams and Haason Reddick went a pick earlier to the Redskins, so it’s between middle linebacker Reuben Foster and one of the cornerbacks. Foster is definitely a possibility, but I went with a cornerback because it’s a bigger need, especially after the Titans released Jason McCourty. Awuzie is someone the Titans are known to be interested in and he makes sense for them at 18. He can start at cornerback day 1 opposite free agent acquisition Logan Ryan.

19. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) – DE Takkarist McKinley (UCLA)*

The Buccaneers are another team reportedly looking to trade down. If Takkarist McKinley falls out of the top-16, they might have a trade partner. The Falcons are rumored to be interested in moving up and it makes sense. They have very few pressing needs so they can afford to trade away their second round pick to jump up the board if it’s for a player they really like, someone like McKinley, who they have been interested in throughout the process. Despite Vic Beasley’s league leading 15.5 sacks, the Falcons finished in the bottom half of the league with just 34 sacks as a team in 2016. Dwight Freeney was their primary edge rusher opposite Beasley in sub packages and he’s a free agent right now, coming off of a 3-sack season and going into his age 37 season. Even if he’s brought back, he’s obviously not a long-term solution for the Falcons.

20. Denver Broncos – OT Garett Bolles (Utah)*

The Broncos lost Russell Okung in free agency to the Chargers and replaced him with Menelik Watson, an injury prone swing tackle caliber talent who struggled when pressed into duty in Oakland over the first 4 seasons of his career. Currently Watson is penciled in as a starting offensive tackle, with Donald Stephenson, another mediocre player, who struggled mightily as the Broncos’ starting right tackle in 2016. It’s a huge position of need for the Broncos and a position they could definitely address in the first round. Bolles is the consensus top left tackle prospect in this draft class, with Cam Robinson being more of a pure right tackle.

21. Detroit Lions – DE Taco Charlton (Michigan)*

Devin Taylor and Ezekiel Ansah both struggled to get to the quarterback in 2016. Taylor remains unsigned as a free agent and, while Ansah has a ton of bounce back potential in 2017, after playing through a bad ankle injury in 2016, he is going into the final year of his rookie contract. Charlton can start immediately opposite Ansah and would give them insurance in case they lose Ansah as a free agent next off-season. The Lions are known to be interested in him.

22. Miami Dolphins – MLB Jarrad Davis (Florida)*

This is a last minute update, as a recent report says that Jarrad Davis won’t get past the Dolphins at 22. That could be smoke or an unconfirmed report, but I’ve been trying to fit Davis into my first round anyway, so putting him here makes sense. Plus, the Dolphins have shown a lot of interest in him throughout the draft process. Davis would take over as the every down middle linebacker and allow Kiko Alonso to move back to his natural position at outside linebacker. If Davis pans out and Alonso can stay healthy, they could form one of the best 4-3 linebacker duos in the NFL, a big boost for a defense that has had poor linebacker play in recent years.

23. New York Giants – TE David Njoku (Miami)*

The Giants’ defense led the way for them last season, as they made the playoffs and won 11 games. However, they need multiple position upgrades on offense. I’ve had a quarterback here in the past because Eli Manning is going into his age 37 season and coming off one of the worst seasons in his career, but the Giants haven’t worked out any of the top quarterbacks so that doesn’t seem likely anymore. Instead, they give Eli Manning a new weapon to work with and take a player they have been very interested in throughout the process. Njoku would be a big upgrade on Will Tye at tight end and would fit the Giants’ pass heavy offense well.

24. Oakland Raiders – MLB Reuben Foster (Alabama)*

The Raiders entered the off-season with big needs at middle linebacker and outside linebacker, with mediocre veterans Perry Riley and Malcolm Smith hitting free agency this off-season. The Raiders signed Jelani Jenkins to plug a hole outside, but he was only signed to a one-year deal, so he’s not a long-term solution. Inside, they have done nothing this off-season and unproven 2015 5th round pick Ben Heeney is penciled in at the top of the depth chart. Reuben Foster falls because of a failed combine drug test, but the Raiders at might be his floor. They are known to be interested in him, even despite the failed test, and he’s a top-10 talent on tape. He’d be a major upgrade on Heeney. 

25. Houston Texans – QB Deshaun Watson (Clemson)*

The Texans were able to pawn off Brock Osweiler on the Browns for the price of a 2018 2nd round pick, but are stuck with Tom Savage as their starting quarterback now, with Tony Romo opting for retirement rather than potentially signing with the Texans. They are likely to look at quarterbacks in the first round and they take Deshaun Watson here. He’ll probably be the 3rd quarterback off the board behind Trubisky and Mahomes and would probably sit as a rookie behind Savage, at least to begin the season, but he’s worth the risk for the Texans at 25.

26. Seattle Seahawks – CB Kevin King (Washington)

The Seahawks have had success drafting defensive backs in the middle rounds and coaching them up in Pete Carroll’s time in Seattle, but this year they might take a cornerback early, possibly as early as the first round. Deshawn Shead, who played well last season as the starter opposite Richard Sherman, is likely to miss the entire 2017 season with a torn ACL, so they need a new #2 cornerback. King can be that immediately and take over as the #1 cornerback long-term with Richard Sherman’s relationship with the team souring. He might not be traded this off-season or next off-season, but it seems unlikely that he’ll be with the Seahawks beyond the final year of his contract in 2018. King has been compared to Sherman and fits what they look for in a corner at 6-3 200.

27. Kansas City Chiefs – QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)*

Alex Smith is a capable starting quarterback, but he’s going into his age 33 season and is no lock to be with the Chiefs beyond the final year of his contract in 2018. Given that, it shouldn’t be a surprise if they draft a quarterback early, much like Andy Reid’s Eagles did with Kevin Kolb when they still had Donovan McNabb. They reportedly really like Kizer’s upside and he would be a great fit for them. He’s not ready to play right away, but he could have been a top-10 in 2018 if he stayed another year at Notre Dame. The Chiefs don’t have another quarterback on the roster besides Alex Smith who’s ever thrown a pass in the NFL, so Kizer could backup Smith for a year, compete with him for the starting job in 2018, and take over as the starter long-term in 2019.

28. Dallas Cowboys – S Obi Melifonwu (Connecticut)*

The Cowboys lost cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne and safeties JJ Wilcox and Barry Church in free agency this off-season, leaving them thin at both positions. Melifonwu can play both positions and has a chance to sneak into the end of the first round after a strong pre-draft process. The Cowboys will likely start the 6-4 224 pounder at cornerback, but his best pro position figures to be safety.

29. Green Bay Packers – G Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky)

The Packers once had the best guard duo in the NFL with TJ Lang and Josh Sitton, but they’ve lost both in the past two off-seasons. With the mediocre Lane Taylor and the soon-to-be-34-year-old Jahri Evans penciled in as the starting guards right now, this is obviously a position of need and Lamp is the best guard prospect in the draft. I’ve had him to the Dolphins at 22 for a while, but he could fall to the Packers if the Dolphins take Davis. Taking him would not only fill a huge need, but it would fit the Packers’ strategy of taking the best available player. The Packers have always valued the offensive line early in drafts anyway, even when they don’t have pressing needs upfront.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR John Ross (Washington)

The Steelers got good news when Martavis Bryant was reinstated by the league after a one-year ban for substance abuse. The Steelers struggled for playmakers outside of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell last season and Bryant certainly qualifies as a playmaker. However, he’s going into the final year of his rookie deal and is a constant suspension risk, so his long-term future with the team is still up in the air. The Steelers don’t have a lot of needs and could easily take a wide receiver early in the draft. Brown, Bryant, and Ross could be a deadly combination in 2017.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TRADE) – RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State)*

Concerns about his off-the-field history and his underwhelming combine have knocked Dalvin Cook’s stock down significantly. It’s now being reported that he could fall to the 2nd round. I wouldn’t rule that out, but the Buccaneers are known to like him and known to be interested in moving down. If they can move down and still get him in the 20s or 30s, I think they’ll pull the trigger. Doug Martin and Charles Sims both struggled last season and neither is a lock to be with the team beyond 2017. Martin has voided all remaining guaranteed money on the 5-year deal he signed last off-season, while Sims is going into the final year of his rookie deal. Cook can split carries with Martin as a rookie and take over as the feature back in 2018 and beyond.

32. New Orleans Saints – CB Adoree Jackson (USC)

As mentioned earlier, the Saints likely feel they can wait on a cornerback more than a defensive end, so they took a defensive end at 11 and focus on cornerback at 32. There’s also a possibility that the Saints trade this pick to the Patriots for Malcolm Butler, which would serve the same purpose as drafting Jackson. The Saints really need at upgrade at cornerback.