Indianapolis Colts 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterback

The Colts surprisingly contended for a playoff spot in 2023, finishing 9-8 and ranking 20th in DVOA, a year after finishing 4-12-1 and dead last in the NFL in DVOA. Their offense was the biggest reason for their turnaround, as their defense actually fell from 13th in DVOA to 20th, while their offense went from dead last to 13th. The quarterback position was a huge problem for the Colts in 2022, ranking 29th in team QB rating at 79.2, leading to the Colts selecting quarterback Anthony Richardon with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but their turnaround last season was not as a result of Richardson.

In fact, Richardson was mediocre in just four starts before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Considered a raw prospect as a passer coming into the league, Richardson showed it in his limited action, with 59.5% completion, 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, though he did also show his athleticism as a runner, rushing for 126 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries (5.44 YPC). In Richardson’s absence, veteran Gardner Minshew was the starter and he provided some stability at the position, but ultimately was underwhelming and, to the extent he deserves credit for the Colts being better offensively last season, it’s only because he was better by default than what the Colts had at the position in 2022.

Minshew’s stats don’t look bad, as he completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but they’re not great either and he finished the season just 34th among 45 eligible quarterbacks on PFF with a 62.0 grade. Minshew wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by another veteran Joe Flacco. Flacco was better in 2023 than Minshew was, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while receiving a 74.2 PFF grade, but that came in just 5 starts after being signed by the Browns mid-season. It was also his best PFF grade since 2014 and came after a 8-year stretch from 2015-2022 in which he completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 6.35 YPA, 84 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions. Now going into his age 39 season, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2024 if forced into action as he was in a small sample size in 2023.

The Colts will be hoping Flacco doesn’t have to see significant action and remains nothing more than an insurance option, with Richardson set to take back his starting job, now healthy going into his second season in the league. It’s tough to know what to expect from Richardson in 2024, given how raw he was entering the league and how little he played as a rookie. He has a huge upside, but also a huge potential downside, giving the Colts one of the biggest ranges of potential outcomes at the quarterback position of any team in the league. 

Richardson’s playing style also exposes him to more injury risk than most quarterbacks, so there’s a better than average chance that he misses more time. Because of all of that, the Colts are one of the most difficult teams in the league to predict in 2024. If Richardson can play up to his potential and stay healthy, this team has enough talent on both sides of the ball to be contenders, but it’s also possible that he’s a downgrade from Minshew and the Colts, who already weren’t quite as good as their record suggested last season, regress in terms of win total as a result. I’m going to grade the Colts’ quarterback room based on an average of the best case and worst case scenario, but the range of outcomes is huge here.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Regardless of how he plays, expect this offense to look different in 2024 than it did in 2023, when the Colts had a balanced approach with 574 passing attempts (18th in the NFL) and 479 rushing attempts (11th in the NFL). With Richardson taking off and running often, I would expect the Colts to be close to the top of the league in rushing attempts and close to the bottom of the league in pass attempts. That should overall have a negative effect on the production of this group of receivers.

Kept this off-season on a 3-year, 70 million dollar extension after being franchise tagged, Michael Pittman should remain the #1 option, as he has been for the past few years, leading the team in receiving in three straight years with slash lines of 88/1082/6, 99/925/4, and 109/1152/4, dating back to the 2020 2nd round pick’s second season in the league in 2021. Over that stretch, Pittman has averaged 1.79 yards per route run, despite less than stellar quarterback play. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect a similar average per route this season, possibly a little higher or a little lower depending on how Richardson turns out to be, but his overall receiving total will probably go down as the number of routes he runs likely decreases, barring a massive breakout as a passer by Richardson.

Josh Downs, a 2023 3rd round pick, finished second on this team in receiving yardage with a 68/771/2 slash line last season, despite playing significantly fewer snaps (1,090 vs. 788) and running significantly fewer routes (605 vs. 483) than Alec Pierce, who only totalled a 32/514/2 slash line, averaging just 0.85 yards per route run, as opposed to 1.60 for Downs. Now going into his second season in the league, I would expect Downs to take on a bigger role at Pierce’s expense, which could lead to Downs’ receiving yardage total increasing, even on a more run heavy offense.

Pierce, meanwhile, still has upside as a 2022 2nd round pick, but his career has not gotten off to a good start with a 1.02 yards per route run average. In addition to Downs likely seeing a bigger role in 2024, the Colts also used 2nd and 5th round picks in this year’s draft on Adonai Mitchell and Anthony Gould and especially Mitchell could eat into Pierce’s playing time even further. Likely to see a smaller target share on a more run heavy offense, Pierce could see a significant decrease in his receiving yardage total in 2024, even if he himself happens to take a step forward as a player. 

The Colts are not nearly as deep at the tight end position and, with a lot of promising young talent at the wide receiver position on an offense that will probably be more run heavy this season, expect the tight end position to not be a big part of this offense in 2024, probably even less so than 2023, when Colts tight ends saw just 119 of 546 targets go their way (21.8% target share), with none receiving more than 50. Those targets were split among four tight ends that all saw playing time, which doesn’t include Jelani Woods, a 2022 3rd round pick who flashed potential with a 25/312/3 slash line and a 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie, before missing all of 2023 with injury. 

In Woods’ absence, playing time went to Kylen Granson (496 snaps), Mo Alie-Cox (434 snaps), Andrew Ogletree (336 snaps), and Will Mallory (159 snaps), who all return in 2024 to compete for playing time with the now healthy Jelani Woods, who should at least be involved in the passing game, though he was mediocre as a blocker as a rookie. Mallory having the least playing time last season might make it seem like he’ll be the odd man out in the likely scenario that only four tight ends make the Colts’ final roster, but the 2023 5th round pick was actually the most efficient of the bunch in 2023 in a limited sample size, averaging 1.62 yards per route run while holding up decently as a blocker, so the Colts might want to keep the young tight end on their roster for another year to see how he develops.

Drew Ogletree (2022 6th round pick) and Kylen Granson (2021 4th round pick) are also both young players. Granson turned his position leading 50 targets into a 30/368/1 slash line and a decent 1.27 yards per route run average last season, in line with his career 1.26 yards per route run average. He probably will see fewer targets this season and he’s consistently struggled as a blocker in his career, but would seem to have a good shot to at least make the roster, if not see a significant snap total again. Ogletree, meanwhile, is much more likely to be the odd man out, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run last season, after not playing a snap as a rookie, and then getting into some trouble off the field this off-season. He was decent as a blocker last season, but that might not be enough to save his roster spot.

Mo Alie-Cox is the veteran of the bunch, going into his 8th season in the league and his age 31 season. He’s the best blocker of the bunch, which is useful given the type of offense this figures to be in 2024, but he’s averaged just 0.98 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined and his age is becoming a concern. The Colts can also save 5.92 million by cutting him this off-season, much more than they would save by cutting any of their other tight ends, so it’s possible the Colts move on and go with a complete youth movement at the tight end position. This is a very young receiving corps overall, but they at least have a lot of upside.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line was a big improvement from 2022 to 2023, ranking 23rd on PFF in pass blocking grade and 13th in run blocking grade in 2022, before ranking 6th in both pass blocking and run blocking grade in 2023, despite the fact that the personnel didn’t really change. The personnel remains largely the same in 2024 and their results figure to be closer to 2023 than 2022. Second year left tackle Bernhard Raimann was good as a rookie in 2022, but he was even better in 2023, finishing with a 82.7 PFF grade. Raimann was an old rookie and is already going into his age 27 season, which is why he fell to the third round, but he’s still in the prime of his career and should continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if it’s possible he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago. 

Center Ryan Kelly was also much better in 2023 than he was in 2022, jumping from a 64.3 PFF grade to a 77.2 PFF grade. In fact, his 2023 campaign was his highest PFF grade of his career, despite the fact that it was his 8th season in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, Kelly could start to decline soon and, even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again. He’s mostly been a solid starter in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven seasons and surpassing 70 in four seasons, but I wouldn’t expect him to continue playing at the level he played at in 2023.

Right tackle Braden Smith also had a career best PFF grade in 2023 with 83.3, but he also missed seven games with injury and he’s been close to that good in the past, exceeding 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Smith should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and, even if he isn’t as good as he was in 2023, he should more than make up for that by playing more games, which would be a big boost because his backup Blake Freeland had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps (nine starts, with two of those coming at left tackle when Raimann missed time). Aside from last season, Smith has only missed 10 games in his career, so he’s not that injury prone. 

The Colts also got better play at right guard. Not only did Will Fries improve slightly from a 58.4 PFF grade in 2022 to a 61.2 PFF grade in 2023, he also made more starts (17 vs. 9), which was a big boost because the Colts’ other starting right guards struggled mightily in 2022. Fries was only a 7th round pick in 2021 and has only been a marginal starter for one season, but he wasn’t that much worse in 2022 and has a good chance to continue being a marginal starter in 2024, only his age 26 season.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also was better in 2023 than 2022, improving from a 68.4 PFF grade to a 70.8 PFF grade, but that’s still a far cry from the player he was earlier in his career. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, receiving PFF grades of 79.7, 91.2, and 86.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he missed four games with injury in his 4th season in the league in 2021 and hasn’t been the same player since then, with last year being his best season since his first three seasons. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could have some bounce back potential, but it’s also very possible his best days are already  behind him.

Depth was a big issue for this group a year ago, with their top reserve tackle Blake Freeland and their top reserve interior offensive lineman Wesley French (48.4 PFF grade on 270 snaps) both struggling mightily. To try to improve this, the Colts used a 3rd round pick on tackle Matt Goncalves and a 4th round pick on guard Tanor Bortolini. Freeland and French still remain, but there is a chance that the rookies beat them out for the top reserve jobs, particularly Goncalves as the swing tackle. 

Freeland is also a 2023 4th round pick who could have some untapped upside and be better in year two, though French is only a 2022 undrafted free agent who could easily never develop into even a decent backup. Relying on rookies and unproven players, the Colts’ depth is a concern on the offensive line, but they at least have a solid starting five, with only center Ryan Kelly likely to regress significantly from last season’s performance.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts’ running game was effective in 2023, even without Anthony Richardson for most of the season, as they finished 10th in team yards per carry with 4.30. The Colts’ offensive line had a lot to do with that, but their running backs weren’t bad either. Zach Moss led the team in carries (183) and rushing yards (794), surprising considering he was a career backup with 301 carries in three seasons in the league prior to last season, while their other back Jonathan Taylor is a former rushing champion who the Colts extended on a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal last season, making him the third highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

Moss out-producing Taylor happened because Taylor missed seven games with injury and was limited in terms of his effectiveness when he did play. He still was more effective than Moss on a per carry basis, with a 74.9 PFF grade (66.9 for Moss), a 4.38 YPC average (4.34 for Moss), and 3.12 yards per carry after contact (2.79 for Moss), and he scored 7 rushing touchdowns to Moss’ 5, but that was a far cry from what Taylor has done at his best. 

Taylor also was limited with injuries in 2022, rushing for 861 yards and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries (4.48 YPC) in 11 games and posting a 67.6 PFF grade, but he led the NFL in rushing in 2021, with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) and a 87.1 PFF grade, and he also had an impressive season as a second round rookie in 2020, rushing for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) and posting a 83.9 PFF grade. 

Moss signed with the Bengals as a free agent this off-season, so this is entirely Jonathan Taylor’s backfield again, with only 2023 5th round pick Evan Hull (one carry as a rookie) remaining as a legitimate backup option. Durability remains a concern for Taylor, especially at a position with the most injury risk, but he’s still only in his age 25 season and has a lot of bounce back potential, especially with Richardson in the backfield with him to give this rushing offense another dimension. Running backs tend to have higher YPC averages when sharing the backfield with a mobile quarterback and that could benefit Taylor significantly if both he and Richardson can stay healthy.

The flip side of that is mobile quarterbacks don’t tend to throw to running backs often, as they can just take off and run with it themselves when there’s nothing open downfield, but pass catching has never been a big part of Taylor’s game anyway, with 123 catches in 53 career games and a career 1.03 yards per route run average. Taylor figures to play close to every down, with none of the Colts’ other running back options being legitimate pass catchers either, but I wouldn’t expect many targets to go his way. Still, the rushing upside is enormous for him, as a highly talented runner, sharing a backfield with a mobile quarterback, without a legitimate threat behind him for carries. If Taylor misses more time with injury, the Colts would be in trouble due to the lack of a legitimate backup option, but Taylor has as much upside as a runner as any running back in the league.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Without many pressing needs on offense, the Colts used their first round pick, 15th overall, on defense, the first team in this year’s draft to select a defensive player, in one of the most offense heavy first rounds of all time. It wasn’t surprising the Colts selected a defensive player, but the position was surprising, as the Colts took edge defender Laiatu Latu, rather than addressing what seemed to be more pressing needs elsewhere. The Colts ranked 5th in the NFL with 51 sacks last season and are just three years removed from using both first and second round picks on edge defenders, taking Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, who both saw significant roles last season (700 snaps and 623 snaps respectively), as did veterans Samson Ebukam (703 snaps) and Tyquan Lewis (437 snaps).

Paye and Odeyingbo had solid sack totals in 2023 with 8.5 and 8 respectively and the Colts picked up Paye’s 5th year option for 2025, but neither of them had good peripheral pass rush stats, with pressure rates of 6.8% and 7.9% respectively, in line with their career averages of 8.8% and 8.3% respectively. Paye excels as a run stopper, leading to a 74.3 PFF grade overall in 2023, after PFF grades of 69.5 and 69.7 in 2021 and 2022, despite his low pressure rate, which could be the biggest reason why his option was picked up, but Odeyingbo was not effective in that aspect either and has received grades of 61.4, 62.6, and 56.9 from PFF through three seasons in the league. 

With Latu coming in, both Paye and Odeyingbo will probably see smaller snap counts in 2024 and it seems unlikely that Odeyingbo will be extended ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2024. Odeyingbo also has good size at 6-6 286 and could play on the interior in pass rush situations more often this season, something he already did on occasion in 2023, as did the 6-3 267 pound Tyquan Lewis. Latu might not have a big rookie year role, but he at least adds even more depth to this group.

With Paye and Odeyingbo not having pressure rates that matched that sack totals in 2023, Samson Ebukam was their best edge defender, posting a 84.4 PFF grade, excelling against the run and adding 9.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. It was a surprising season for Ebukam, a 2017 4th round pick who had never exceeded a 69.1 PFF grade in six seasons in the league prior to last season, while totaling just 23.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Still only in his age 29 season, Ebukam is still theoretically in his prime, but it seems unlikely he’ll have by far the best season of his career again in 2024. 

There’s still a good chance Ebukam plays at an above average level this season, but I would expect him to regress, possibly significantly. Tyquan Lewis also had an impressive season in 2023, albeit in a smaller, rotational role, posting an overall 73.7 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. For Lewis, it was also a career best year, in terms of snaps played, PFF grade, and pressure rate, as he had combined for 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 48 career games prior to last season. 

Lewis was a second round pick in 2018, so he’s always had talent, but it also seems unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, now in his age 29 season. He’s also been injury prone throughout his career, playing more than 9 games in a season just twice in six seasons in the league. Lewis could remain a useful rotational player in 2024 and his versatility is valuable, but I would expect him to regress at least somewhat and probably miss more time with injury. This is a deep group with first round pick Laiatu Latu being added, but both Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis are unlikely to repeat last season’s performances, while Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo were not as good of pass rushers as their sack totals suggested in 2024.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a need this off-season for the Colts and one the Colts could have addressed in the first round of the draft (the Seahawks took Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy one pick after theirs). Instead, it looks like they will try to fill their need at this position by loading up at the edge defender position and playing Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis inside more often, which might not be the best solution, unless Latu turns out to be a much better pro than Byron Murphy long-term. 

The Colts have a good starting duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart at the interior defender spot, but both are getting up there in age, going into their age 30 and age 31 seasons respectively, and their depth behind them is suspect, even if Odeyingbo and Lewis see more action inside this season. That depth was exposed last season when Stewart was limited to 445 snaps in 11 games by suspension. Stewart still had a 76.2 PFF grade when he played, but their top reserves Taven Bryan (343 snaps), Eric Johnson (265 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (132 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 51.3, 30.5, and 27.5 respectively. 

Stewart has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, surpassing 70 twice, playing at his best against the run at 6-4 314 pounds, but also adding a decent 5.9% pressure rate over those five seasons and playing close to an every down role (40.0 snaps per game). His age is a concern and he may start to decline this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he remains at least a capable starter. Originally a free agent this off-season, the Colts gave him a significant contract to stay, re-signing him for 39 million over 3 years.

Buckner, meanwhile, has always been the better player, exceeding 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 80, including three of the past four. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 61 sacks, 109 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 129 career games, but he also holds up against the run and averages 53.1 snaps per game for his career, while missing just two games in eight seasons in the league. Even if he starts to decline in 2024, he should continue playing at a high level, given how high of a base point he would be declining from.

The Colts signed Raekwon Davis in free agency this off-season to give them more depth, but he is a very underwhelming addition, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, struggling against the run and totaling just a 5.4% pressure rate in four seasons in the league, while averaging 511 snaps per season. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but he’s already going into his age 27 season, so he might not really have much untapped upside. Even as a reserve, he’s not a great option and he’s unlikely to live up to a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal the Colts gave him this off-season.

Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson, and Adetomiwa Adebawore all return as reserves and I wouldn’t expect much out of any of them. Bryan has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, on an average of 449 snaps per season. Johnson and Adebawore are at least young, going in the 5th round in 2022 and 4th round pick in 2023, but neither have shown anything as professionals yet, with Johnson also struggling as a rookie (47.4 PFF grade on 127 snaps) and it’s very possible they’ll never develop into even decent reserves. Buckner and Stewart remain a good starting duo, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 now and the Colts’ depth at this position is still a significant issue.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Just a couple years ago, the Colts’ top linebacker was Shaq Leonard, who was also one of the best linebackers in the league, but injuries sapped his abilities over the past couple seasons and he had just a 60.3 PFF grade on 454 snaps in 9 games in 2023, before being released mid-season when he was unhappy with his role. With Leonard playing a smaller role and then getting released, Zaire Franklin led this group with 1,090 snaps played in 2023, while EJ Speed played 730 snaps on the season and saw his playing time increase when Leonard was gone (373 snaps in his final six games), and Ronnie Harrison played 234 snaps in seven games after being signed from the practice squad mid-season to replace Leonard.

Franklin also played 1,136 snaps in 2022, but he has PFF grades of just 57.0 and 60.9 in those past two seasons, so he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player. A 2018 7th round pick, Franklin played sparingly in his first four seasons in the league (465 snaps) before becoming a starter and, now in his age 28 season, I would expect him to continue being a decent, but unspectacular every down player. Speed, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and didn’t see a lot of playing time in his first four seasons before last season (497 snaps), but he flashed potential with a 78.4 PFF grade on 316 snaps in 2022 and had a decent 65.0 grade in his expanded role in 2023, struggling in coverage, but playing he run well. Speed has always played the run much better than the pass, which is a concern because he’ll probably continue having an expanded role in 2024 and have to cover more often, but he should at least be a decent starter overall.

Harrison will continue being the third linebacker, playing primarily in base packages, the same role as he had down the stretch last season. Originally a safety before changing positions last season, Harrison was mostly decent in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, but the 2018 3rd round pick had trouble staying consistently healthy, missing 15 games in those five seasons, with missed time in all five seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. This should remain a decent, but unspectacular linebacking corps this season.

Grade: B

Secondary

Cornerback was another big need position for the Colts that they could have addressed early in the draft. Instead, they didn’t address it until the 5th and 6th rounds, when they took Jaylin Simpson and Micah Abraham, who will only be deep reserves as rookies. Without significant additions to this group this off-season, the Colts will hope for better health at this position than a year ago, but even if they are healthier, they could still have issues. Kenny Moore, JuJu Brents, and Dallis Flowers started last season as the Colts’ top-3 cornerbacks, but Brents was limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and Flowers was limited to 304 snaps in 4 games.

Brents was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 63.2 PFF grade in his injury-shortened rookie season, so he has the upside to take a step forward and become at least a solid starter in his second season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee, given that we have only seen a small sample size from him. Flowers, meanwhile, also had a decent 66.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season, but that’s an even smaller sample size and Flowers went undrafted in 2022 and struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 175 snaps as a rookie, so he’s highly unproven.

With Brents and Flowers missing time last season Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker played 788 snaps and 469 snaps respectively, but both struggled, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 51.8. That’s not surprising, given that Jones was a 7th round rookie, while Baker is a 2022 undrafted free agent who hadn’t played a defensive snap prior to last season. Both remain on the roster for now, but with Brents and Flowers expected to be healthier and Simpson and Abraham added late in the draft, neither Jones nor Baker are guaranteed a roster spot in 2024.

Fortunately, the Colts got a good season out of top cornerback Kenny Moore, as the veteran had a 77.4 PFF grade on 1,089 snaps in 16 games. Moore has a recent history of injuries and inconsistency though. In fact, his 2023 PFF grade was the highest of his seven seasons in the league. Moore has surpassed 70 on PFF three other times, but prior to last season, the most recent instance was in 2020, as he fell to a 66.6 PFF grade in 2021 and fell even further to 55.7 in an injury plagued 2022 season, when he was limited to 774 snaps in 12 games. Brought back on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, Moore could continue playing at a high level in 2024, still only in his age 29 season, but chances are he’ll regress a little bit.

At safety, the Colts re-signed 2020 3rd round pick Julian Blackmon to a 1-year, 3.7 million dollar deal after he had a career best 68.3 PFF grade last season. Blackmon has always had talent, exceeding 60 on PFF on all four seasons in the league, and he is still only going into his age 26 season, but injuries have been a problem for him for most of his career, as he’s missed 17 games in four seasons in the league, even missing two last season in the most impressive full season of his career. He could continue being a solid starter in 2024 and potentially has the upside to be even better, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury.

At the other safety spot, Rodney Thomas, who started most of last season, will compete with Nick Cross, who took over a bigger role down the stretch. Both were drafted in 2022, but they’re very different players. Thomas went in the 7th round and is already heading into his age 26 season, so he probably doesn’t have much untapped upside, and he’s struggled with PFF grades of 54.3 and 58.2 on snap counts of 720 and 962 in two seasons in the league. 

Cross, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and is only going into his age 23 season, so he could have a lot of untapped upside, and he flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade on 292 snaps last season, after struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in limited action (122 snaps) as a rookie. Cross seems like the better starting option, but he’s still very unproven. Without any major additions to this group this off-season, the Colts figure to have an underwhelming secondary again in 2024.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Colts have a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 season because of the wide range of potential outcomes from their talented, but inexperienced starting quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts weren’t quite as good as their 9-8 record last season and aren’t really much better overall this season, so if Richardson isn’t better than Gardner Minshew was a year ago, or if he’s worse than Minshew was, the Colts won’t have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot. However, if Richardson can be an upgrade over Minshew, the Colts have enough talent on the rest of this roster than they should be able to take a step forward and be a playoff team. I would say odds are against them qualifying for the playoffs in the loaded AFC, but that is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Update: The Colts’ chances of being playoff contenders in the loaded AFC took a big hit when they lost Samson Ebukam for the season with injury. Unless they get an unexpectedly big year from Anthony Richardson, I would expect the Colts to have a losing record.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick in a draft with Trevor Lawrence, one of the best quarterback prospects of the past couple decades and a consensus choice for the #1 selection. It’s arguable that no team needed that more than the Jaguars, who not only had the worst record in the league the previous season at 1-15, but who also had won more than six games just once in the eleven seasons prior, with an average win total of 4.4 over that stretch.

Through three seasons in the league, Lawrence’s numbers don’t look like what you’d expect out of someone who entered the league with as much promise as he did, as he’s completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 58 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 85.0 that is 33rd out of 41 eligible quarterbacks over the past three seasons, behind quarterbacks such as Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke. Because of that, some are even calling Lawrence a bust and saying that the Jaguars made a mistake selecting him. That doesn’t tell the whole story though.

Lawrence’s overall numbers are brought down by the fact that he struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, but that was a terrible team with a terrible coaching staff. In the past two seasons, Lawrence has been significantly better. In year two, he completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (95.2 QB rating).

In year three, his production did take a step back, as did the Jaguars who missed the playoffs at 9-8 after making them and winning a playoff game the previous season. Lawrence completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (88.5 QB rating) in 2023, but he played through multiple injuries down the stretch and was a lot better earlier in the season, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while going 8-4 through 12 starts, before a late season collapse.

Between those first 12 games of last season before injuries got the best of him and his strong run in the second half of the 2022 season after things seemed to click for him, Lawrence completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.39 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (97.3 QB rating) in a 23-game stretch, including playoffs, while going 16-7 and leading the Jaguars to the second round of the post-season. If you look at his overall production over three seasons in the league, it’s underwhelming, but if you look at how he played over the past year and a half before injuries got the best of him late last season, you can see the potential for a quarterback who is still only going into his age 25 season in 2024.

WIth Lawrence extension-eligible now three years into his career, the Jaguars will have a decision to make on his long-term future. Lawrence has two years left on his rookie deal and could theoretically be franchised tagged twice after that, but Lawrence’s salary would jump significantly on his 5th year option in 2025 and then even higher if he were to be franchise tagged, so either way he is about to get a lot more expensive. 

If the Jaguars wait to extend Lawrence, they risk his price getting higher if he bounces back from injury and continues to develop and his price will also go up as more quarterbacks sign big long-term deals. They also risk upsetting their franchise quarterback if they make him wait too long for long-term security. Even now, Lawrence’s long-term extension would probably exceed the 53 million annually the Lions gave to Jared Goff and it will almost definitely only get higher the longer they wait. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, but Lawrence still has the upside to develop into that kind of quarterback. 

With Lawrence about to get a lot more expensive, the Jaguars seem to be trying to take full advantage of their window with Lawrence as a cheap quarterback and have been aggressive adding talent on both sides of the ball in free agency, leading to them ranking 10th in total average annual value of their roster, despite Lawrence still being relatively cheap. Average annual value tends to correlate heavily with a team’s winning percentage, which is a good sign for the Jaguars’ chances of being successful in 2024, especially since they were 8-4 last season before Lawrence’s injuries got the best of him. 

Lawrence only missed one game with his injuries last season, which is the only game he’s missed in his career, but if he happens to miss more time with injury, the Jaguars added Mac Jones to be his backup this off-season. Jones was also a first round pick in the same 2021 NFL Draft as Lawrence, going 15th overall to the Patriots, and he actually seemed like the better quarterback in year one, completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, but he has struggled mightily over the past two seasons, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.50 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions, leading to him being benched numerous times and ultimately being traded from the Patriots to the Jaguars for a late round pick. 

Jones is still only in his age 26 season though and much of his struggles in the past two seasons can be blamed on the poor scheme and lack of talent around him, so he’s a worthwhile reclamation project for the Jaguars and probably one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He’ll technically have to compete for the backup job with incumbent CJ Beathard, who has a career 82.1 QB rating in 13 starts in 7 seasons in the league, but Jones should be considered the heavy favorite for the job. The Jaguars have good depth behind a talented young starting quarterback who was having a strong year and a half stretch before late season injuries in 2023. This is one of the better quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The area the Jaguars have made the biggest investment in over the past few off-seasons is in the receiving corps. Two off-seasons ago, they signed wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to contracts worth 72 million over 4 years and 24 million over 3 years and tight end Evan Engram to a contract worth 9 million over 1 year. Last off-season, they franchise tagged and extended Evan Engram on a 3-year, 41.25 million dollar deal and traded for wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the final 1-year, 11.116 million left on his contract. This off-season, they let Ridley walk and released Zay Jones ahead of the final year and 7 million of his contract and then replaced them with free agent Gabe Davis on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and first round pick Brian Thomas. Kirk, Davis, and Thomas will be their top-3 wide receivers this season, while Engram will continue having a big role as a pass catching tight end.

Kirk will probably be the de facto #1 receiver, as he has been for the past two seasons. In his first season in Jacksonville in 2022, Kirk had a 84/1108/8 slash line with a 1.79 yards per route run average and last season he was on pace for a 81/1115/4 slash line with a 2.07 yards per route run average before missing the final five games of the season with injury. Kirk was considered by many to be a big overpay when the Jaguars signed him, but he had a 77/982/5 slash line with a 1.81 yards per route run average in his final season in Arizona and he was a former 2nd round pick going into only his age 26 season, so the Jaguars saw potential in him and credit them for being right, with Kirk continuing to develop since joining the Jaguars. Now his contract, which only makes him the 21st highest paid wide receiver in terms of average annual salary, seems very reasonable. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Kirk in 2024.

With Kirk missing time with injury last season, Calvin Ridley led the team with a 76/1016/8 slash line, but he only averaged 1.57 yards per route run, so he won’t be too hard to replace, nor will Zay Jones, who averaged just 1.05 yards per route run average with just a 34/321/2 slash line in 9 games an injury plagued season. Gabe Davis is probably a slight downgrade from Ridley, with a 1.44 yards per route run average over the past three seasons in Buffalo with Josh Allen, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in 2024 and fill Ridley’s old role well. The rookie Brian Thomas, meanwhile, should be a significant upgrade over Jones so, in the aggregate, Davis and Thomas should be an upgrade on Ridley and Jones.

When the Jaguars originally signed Evan Engram, that signing was also questioned, as he had averaged just 1.36 yards per route run in five seasons with the Giants at that point in his career, with just a 0.89 yards per route run average in his final season before free agency, and he had missed 16 games with injury in those five seasons, while maxing out with a 64/722/6 slash line. However, Engram has taken a big step forward since joining a much better offense in Jacksonville, surpassing his career best slash line with the Giants in both seasons with the Jaguars, totaling a 73/766/4 slash line with a 1.46 yards per route run average in 2022, leading to the Jaguars franchise tagging him and giving him a big extension, and then totaling a 114/963/4 slash line with a 1.56 yards per route run average in 2023. Engram is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been the past two seasons, he should at least be a solid receiving tight end.

Depth is a bit of concern for the Jaguars outside of their top-3 wide receivers and their top tight end. Parker Washington and Tim Jones saw expanded action last season when injuries kept Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out of action, but Washington, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged just 0.75 yards per route run, while Tim Jones, a 2021 undrafted free agent, averaged just 0.45 yards per route run, in line with the 0.51 yards per route run he averaged in the only other experience of his career in 2022. Both are young, but neither entered the league with much upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if neither even developed into capable backups. The Jaguars signed veteran Devin Duvarney in free agency, but he’s more of a return specialist than a wide receiver, averaging just 0.91 yards per route run with a career best slash line of 37/407/3 in four seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Jaguars used a 2nd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Brenton Strange, but he didn’t show much as a rookie, playing just 307 snaps, mostly as a blocker, and averaging just 0.41 yards per route run. Strange actually was the 3rd tight end for most of last season, consistently playing behind Luke Farrell (412 snaps). Farrell was also mostly a blocker, but also added 1.36 yards per route run as a pass catcher. A 5th round pick in 2021, Farrell has only averaged 1.09 yards per route run for his career and probably doesn’t have much upside beyond being a decent blocker. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Strange took a step forward in year two and took over the #2 tight end job. Even if the Jaguars’ depth is suspect, they still have a good top-4 pass catching targets with Kirk, Engram, Davis, and Thomas.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

On the offensive line, the biggest addition the Jaguars have made in the past few off-seasons is right guard Brandon Scherff, who they signed to a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Scherff is still the 8th highest paid guard in the league even as other guards have gotten big extensions in the past couple off-seasons, so it was a big commitment for the Jaguars. It was understandable why they did it, as Scherff had finished above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons of his career prior joining the Jaguars, but he had also missed 27 games in the past five seasons and was heading into his age 31 season in his first season in Jacksonville, so it was a risky signing.

Scherff has managed to stay healthy since joining the Jaguars, playing all 17 games in both seasons, but he hasn’t been the same player, receiving grades of 59.0 and 67.3 from PFF, the two worst single season grades of his career. Now going into his age 33 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline further. He still has a good chance to at least be a decent starter, but he’s still unlikely to live up to his big contract. 

Coming into last season, left guard and center were weaknesses for the Jaguars, but they addressed the left guard spot with a mid-season trade for Ezra Cleveland, who they then kept on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, and then they also added center Mitch Morse on a 2-year, 10.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Cleveland struggled in his first half season in Jacksonville, with a 46.0 PFF grade in five starts, but he had PFF grades of 66.2, 68.6, 73.5, and 73.8 in his first three and a half seasons in the league with the Vikings before being traded to Jacksonville, so he has some obvious bounce back potential, still only in his age 26 season, now going into his first full season with his new team.

Morse, meanwhile, has been a capable, if unspectacular starter for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league (126 starts), but only finishing above 70 twice, with the most recent instance coming all the way back in 2018. Morse is now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline, hence why he was relatively cheap in free agency, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be a big upgrade on Luke Fortner, who struggled mightily with a 44.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who also struggled with a 49.6 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, will now be a backup, a role he’s better suited for, as will Tyler Shatley, a career backup (51 starts in 10 seasons in the league) in his age 33 season, who struggled with a 47.5 PFF grade in 6 starts at guard last season before Cleveland arrived.

At tackle, the Jaguars have left tackle Cam Robinson, a 2017 2nd round pick who is on a 3-year, 54 million dollar extension, and right tackle Anton Harrison, who was their first round choice in 2023. Robinson isn’t quite worth his salary, but he’s received grades in the 60s from PFF in each of the past four seasons, so he’s at least a capable starter. He missed eight games last season and was replaced by swing tackle Walker Little, a 2021 2nd round pick who was mediocre with a 58.8 PFF grade. 

Little was highly drafted, but has made just 17 nondescript starts in three seasons in the league and his presence didn’t prevent the Jaguars from selecting Harrison last year. Walker is at least a good reserve though and he has the versatility to play guard. Harrison, meanwhile, struggled with a 53.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but he entered the league very young and very raw, so he could easily take a step forward in year two, still only in his age 22 season. This offensive line isn’t as good as the Jaguars would like, given how much they’ve invested in this group in recent years, but they’re still at least a decent unit and they should be better than a year ago, with Cam Robinson likely healthier, Ezra Cleveland likely bouncing back from a down year, and Mitch Morse being added in free agency.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Along with Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars drafted Lawrence’s college teammate, running back Travis Etienne, in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Etienne missed his entire rookie season with injury, but has developed into a feature back in the past two seasons. He was a lot more efficient in year two than year three, rushing for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries (5.11 YPC) in 2022, as opposed to 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns on 267 carries (3.78 YPC) in 2023, but he actually finished with a better PFF grade in 2023 (77.0) than in 2022 (72.1), as his YPC after contact stayed about the same (3.08 in 2022, 2.87 in 2023), while his missed tackle rate increased and his receiving production went from 35/316/0 with 1.00 yards per route run in 2022 to 58/476/1 with 1.18 yards per route run in 2023. In 2024, he should have better run blocking and I would expect him to finish between his 2022 and 2023 averages in terms of YPC, while continuing to carry the load and play on all three downs.

The Jaguars used a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on running back Tank Bigsby to try to give Etienne more rest, but Etienne actually played more in 2023 than he did in 2022, as Bigsby struggled mightily as a rookie, averaging just 2.64 YPC on 50 carries. D’Ernest Johnson, the Jaguars’ other backup running back, also struggled with a 2.63 YPC on 41 carries. Bigsby has a good chance to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year two, but Etienne still figures to have a big role as the featured back. Johnson remains as well and his career 4.65 YPC average suggests he should be better in 2024 than 2023, although he only has 182 carries in 6 seasons in the league and wouldn’t be a candidate for a big workload even if Etienne got hurt. The Jaguars also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Keilan Robinson and he could earn playing time if both Bisgby and Johnson struggle. The Jaguars’ depth is still questionable, but they at least have options with potential and Etienne is still an above average feature back.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

On defense, the Jaguars’ biggest off-season addition was Arik Armstead, who they brought over from the 49ers on a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal. Armstead is now going into his age 31 season and injuries have been a concern for much of Armstead’s career, as he’s missed 31 games in nine seasons in the league since going in the 1st round in 2015, including 13 games missed over the past two seasons, but he’s mostly played at a high level when healthy, totaling 33.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 116 career games as a pass rusher, while also playing the run well and having the versatility to play outside on the edge from time to time. 

In total, Armstead has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league, including 2023, when he had a 81.9 PFF grade with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 12 games, despite his age. He could easily start declining this season and could also miss more time with injury, but even at less than his best and for less than 17 games, he should be an asset for this team and an upgrade over all of the Jaguars’ interior defenders last season, when Roy Robertson-Harris led the way with just a 62.3 PFF grade on 683 snaps. 

Robertson-Harris remains and should continue having a significant rotational role. Run defense is an issue for him and always has been, but he had 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate last season and has 17 sacks, 44 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 100 career games in eight seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, he could start to decline in 2024 and, even at his best, he’s never been more than an average starter, but he should still at least be a useful rotational pass rusher on the interior.

The Jaguars are also hoping for more out of DaVon Hamilton. A 2020 3rd round pick, Hamilton struggled on snap counts of 408 and 443 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 74.9 PFF grade on 610 snaps in his third season in the league in 2022, earning a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar extension as a result, only to be limited to 190 snaps in 8 games and a 36.2 PFF grade in 2023 because of injuries that plagued him all season. Only in his age 27 season, Hamilton has obvious bounce back potential if he’s past the injuries that plagued him last season. It’s worth noting he’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but even if he isn’t quite that good again in 2024, he should still give the Jaguars a lot more than he gave them in 2023.

The Jaguars also used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson respectively. Smith should have a role based on where he was drafted, but Jefferson could have a hard time earning playing time in a suddenly deep position group. The Jaguars also bring back Adam Gotsis (427 snaps), Jeremiah Ledbetter (369 snaps), and Tyler Lacy (145 snaps) from last year’s group, with Folorunso Fatukasi (61.0 PFF grade on 415 snaps) being their only notable departure at the group this off-season. None of Gotsis, Ledbetter, and Lacy will be guaranteed a role though, in a much deeper position group than a year ago, highlighted by Armstead, Robertson-Harris, Hamilton, and the rookie Smith.

Gotsis is entering his 9th season in the league and has been an unspectacular rotational player throughout his career, receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF on an average of 413 snaps per season in eight seasons in the league, including a 61.0 PFF grade on 427 snaps in 2023, but now heading into his age 32 season, it’s fair to question how much longer he can even keep that up and he shouldn’t be considered a lock for the final roster going into 2024. Lacy, meanwhile, was a 2023 4th round pick who showed little in a very limited role in a relatively thin position group as a rookie, while Ledbetter played 369 snaps out of necessity (after playing just 82 snaps in the previous five seasons combined) and predictably struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade. Lacy might stay on the roster on upside alone, but neither he nor Ledbetter are roster locks either, in a much better position group than a year ago, with Armstead being added in free agency, Smith being added early in the draft, and DaVon Hamilton likely being healthier.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Jaguars also spent heavily this off-season to keep top edge defender Josh Allen, franchise tagging him and then giving him a 5-year, 141.25 million dollar deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary. It’s hard to argue he doesn’t deserve it. The 7th overall pick in 2019, Allen has never been bad and he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being drafted, from 68.4 on 634 snaps as a rookie to 89.5 on 880 snaps in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in the best season of his career in 2023.

Opposite Josh Allen, Travon Walker also had impressive pass rush snaps with 10 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate, while playing 869 snaps, but he benefited significantly from Josh Allen drawing double teams opposite him and he struggled mightily against the run, missing a position leading 15 tackles, leading to Walker receiving just a 53.9 overall grade from PFF. Walker was the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and, even if that was a historically weak draft at the top, he still has a ton of upside, still only going into his age 24 season. He was also mediocre with a 60.3 PFF grade on 788 snaps as a rookie, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a big step forward in year three and, even if he doesn’t improve significantly, 2024 could still easily be the best season of his career.

Walker and Allen rarely came off the field in 2023 because of the Jaguars’ lack of depth at the position, with Dawaune Smoot (340 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (283 snaps) struggling mightily in limited action with PFF grades of 42.4 and 54.7 respectively, and things should be similar this season. Smoot and Chaisson are gone and wouldn’t really be missed if not for the fact that the Jaguars didn’t really replace them. Their most notable addition was Trevis Gipson. Gipson was a 5th round pick by the Bears in 2020 and was a decent rotational edge rusher with them in 2021 and 2022, playing 489 and 641 snaps respectively and totaling 10 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. However, Gipson struggled mightily against the run, leading to him being cut by the Bears going into 2023 and then playing just 76 snaps in his lone season in Tennessee. 

Gipson will have the opportunity for more playing time in Jacksonville and could go back to being a useful rotational pass rusher, only in his age 27 season, but he should also continue struggling against the run and is overall an underwhelming top reserve. The Jaguars also used a 7th round pick in this year’s draft on Myles Cole, who could be forced into a significant reserve role as a rookie, a role in which he will almost definitely struggle. Cole will compete for the 4th edge defender position with 2023 5th round pick Yasir Abdullah, who showed very little promise on 45 snaps as a rookie and who would likely struggle even in a rotational role. Josh Allen is one of the best edge defenders in the league and Travon Walker at least has a lot of upside, but the Jaguars still lack depth at a very top-heavy position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Things stay the same personnel wise for the Jaguars at linebacker, which is a good thing because Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd were one of the better linebacker duos in the league with PFF grades of 75.2 and 78.1 respectively. Both players had the best season of their careers, but Lloyd at least has a good chance to repeat his performance, as a 2022 1st round pick who is still only going into his third season in the league. Lloyd struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade on 925 snaps as a rookie, but he’s unlikely to regress back to rookie year form at this point and, even if he doesn’t match or exceed last season’s performance, he should at least remain an above average starter, with the upside for more.

Oluokun’s chances of repeating last season’s performance are not as good, as he had never exceeded a 69.6 PFF grade in five seasons in the league prior to last season, including two seasons below 60 on PFF in 2020 and 2021. Oluokun isn’t totally over the hill yet, going into his age 29 season, but odds are probably against him repeating his career best year. He’s always been at least a capable run stuffer and a tackle machine, but last season was the first season of his career where his coverage abilities matched his run defense and that might not continue in 2024.

The Jaguars rarely use more than two off ball linebackers on the field at once, so the Jaguars’ depth would only be a factor in case of injury. Chad Muma was the only other pure off ball linebacker to see action last season and 107 of the 146 snaps he played last season came in two games when Lloyd was out due. Muma was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but has mostly struggled on 432 career snaps, including a 38.1 PFF grade last season. 

Muma might still have some untapped upside and isn’t a bad backup option because of that, but he almost definitely would be a downgrade from Lloyd or Oluokun in case of injury. The Jaguars also have 2023 4th round pick Ventrell Miller, but he didn’t play a single defensive snap as a rookie and is a complete unknown at this point in his career. Lloyd and Oluokun should still remain a talented linebacker duo in 2024 even if they aren’t quite as good as they were a year ago and their linebacker depth at least has some upside, even if they are unproven.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with signing Arik Armstead, the Jaguars also signed safety Darnell Savage and cornerback Ronald Darby to contracts worth 21.75 million over 3 years and 8.5 million over 2 years respectively this off-season, but they are replacing Rayshawn Jenkins and Darious Williams respectively and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both were downgrades. Darby will almost definitely be a downgrade because Darious Williams excelled with a 79.5 PFF grade on 1,035 snaps last season and was the Jaguars’ best cornerback.

Darby has definitely had his moments, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 70, but he’s also been incredibly injury prone, missing at least five games due to injury in five of the past seven seasons with 42 missed games total in his career. Now going into his age 30 season, his injury proneness is unlikely to change. He actually managed to play 16 games last season with the Ravens, but only played 442 snaps as a part-time cornerback and his 69.5 PFF grade was solid, but a far cry from what Darious Williams gave the Jaguars last season.

Savage has a better chance of adequately replacing Rayshawn Jenkins, who only had a 60.9 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, but Savage has been inconsistent across his five seasons in the league. A first round pick in 2019 by the Packers, Savage showed his potential early in his career, with PFF grades of 67.1 and 75.3 respectively, but he fell to 58.5 and 47.5 in the next two seasons, leading to him getting benched late in the 2022 season. He got his starting job back for 2023 and was better with a 66.3 PFF grade, but missed seven games with injury and played just 558 snaps. He’s not as injury prone as Darby, but he’s missed time in four of five seasons in the league and has been inconsistent when on the field. He’s still only in his age 27 season and he has a lot of talent, but it’s tough to know what the Jaguars are going to get out of him.

The Jaguars also lost cornerback Tre Herndon this off-season, after he played well in limited action with a 70.8 PFF grade on 482 snaps last season, and they only replaced him with 3rd and 5th round picks Jarrian Jones and Deantre Prince, who both could easily struggle if forced into significant action in year one. The Jaguars also have Montaric Brown, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled mightily with a 51.3 PFF grade on 475 snaps in the first significant action of his career last season, mostly as an injury replacement. He’s unlikely to be the answer to replace Tre Herndon either. Their best option is probably Antonio Johnson, a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 grade on 172 snaps as a rookie, but he’s a projection to a larger role and could also be a downgrade from Herndon.

The Jaguars should at least get more out of Tyson Campbell, who was expected to be their top cornerback in 2023, but was limited to a 61.5 PFF grade on 589 snaps in 11 games due to injury. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell had a 62.7 PFF grade on 864 snaps as a rookie, before breaking out with a 82.1 PFF grade on 1,138 snaps in 2022. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but he’s still only going into his age 24 season, so, if he’s past his 2023 injuries, he could easily bounce back to his 2022 form, or at least close to it. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars might try to extend him before the season starts because his price would only go up if he bounced back this season.

The Jaguars might try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties more often in sub packages, with Darnell Savage having the versatility to play on the slot if needed. Andre Cisco returns as the other starter opposite free agent addition Darnell Savage. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential with a 67.9 PFF grade on 247 snaps as a rookie, before receiving 67.1 and 68.9 grades in 2022 and 2023 as a starter (30 starts). He should continue at least playing at that level in 2024 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had the best year of his career yet this year.

Andrew Wingard remains as the 3rd safety and, as far as 3rd safeties go, he’s one of the better ones in the league. He’s only been a starter once in his career, receiving a 69.0 PFF grade on 930 snaps (15 starts) in 2021, but he’s excelled in a reserve role the past two seasons with a PFF grades of 76.2 and 79.4 on snap counts of 217 and 330 respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, Wingard could be in for an expanded role in 2024 in a pretty thin secondary. Top cornerback Tyson Campbell has a high upside and bounce back potential coming off of an injury plagued season, but the rest of this group is average at best.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars were 8-4 last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt and Lawrence was in the middle of an impressive stretch of about a season and a half or so. Assuming Lawrence can stay healthy this time around, the he and the Jaguars have a good chance to bounce back and their supporting cast on both sides of the ball is arguably better this year than it was last year when the Jaguars got off to that impressive start.

Update: The Jaguars should be better than a year ago, but the rest of the AFC is better too, so they could easily be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South

Detroit Lions 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

Three years ago, the Lions kicked off a multi-year rebuilding process by trading away long-time franchise quarterback Matt Stafford to the Rams. The Lions had compiled just a 14-33-1 record over the previous three seasons with no playoff victories in Stafford’s 12-year tenure with the team and, with Stafford heading into his age 33 season in 2021, he demanded a trade, a request the Lions were willing to oblige, in need of a different direction as a team. The Lions could have traded Stafford for a top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and tried to shorten the rebuilding process, but instead they took a pair of first round picks from the Rams in 2022 and 2023, a 2021 3rd round pick, and former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who had fallen out of favor with his old team.

Goff is 6 years younger than Stafford, but he was expected to be a downgrade under center, the 51.8 million guaranteed he was owed in the next two seasons was actually more than the 43 million that Stafford’s contract was set to pay him over those two seasons and, ultimately, most viewed Goff as a stopgap solution under center, rather than a long-term solution. Goff completed 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 107 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions in 69 starts in five seasons with the Rams, who selected him #1 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, but the success he had was considered a product of the offensive system and talent he had around him with the Rams.

In Goff’s first season in Detroit, he predictably struggled on a team with much less talent around the quarterback and an inferior coaching staff, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of just 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for a Lions team that went just 3-13-1. However, the Lions got a new offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson for the 2022 season, which proved to be a huge upgrade, and they rapidly improved the rest of their roster, mostly through strong drafts. 

Their offense took a big step forward first, leading to the Lions improving to 9-8 in 2022, with Goff completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and then the defense followed with a big step forward of their own in 2023, leading to the Lions finishing with a 12-5 record and making the NFC Championship, their first 12+ win season and their first NFC Championship appearance since 1991. Goff finished the 2023 season with a 67.3% completion percentage, 7.56 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on a team that finished 7th in total DVOA, 5th in offensive DVOA, and 13th in defensive DVOA.

In 2024, the Lions are mostly running it back. They brought back their top-7 and 14 of their top-16 in terms of offensive snaps played, as well as 10 of their top-14 in terms of defensive snaps played. However, their championship window might be smaller than most realize. Many of their talented young players will be up for extensions in the next couple off-seasons and it will be tough for the Lions to pay everyone, especially since they had to give quarterback Jared Goff a massive 4-year, 212 million dollar extension this off-season, making him the second highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract in 2024. 

Goff’s cap hit doesn’t explode right away, but it soon will and it will be tough for the Lions to keep the amount of talent around him that Goff will need for this team to be competitive at the highest level. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Goff is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. The Lions should remain one of the best teams in the league in 2024, but if they can’t win it all this season, they might find their Super Bowl window will close faster than anticipated. 

Injuries have never been a big concern for Goff, as he’s missed just 4 games due to injury in 8 seasons in the league, but if he happens to miss time, the Lions would likely turn to Hendon Hooker, who was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2023 NFL Draft. Hooker has never thrown a regular season pass in his career, after missing most of his rookie season rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered in his final collegiate season, but Hooker could have been a second, or even a first round pick he had not suffered that injury and, if he makes a full recovery, he could easily develop into one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. That’s far from a guarantee and he would still probably be a noticeable downgrade from Goff if he was forced into action, but this is still a better backup quarterback situation than the majority of teams in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One of the key young additions the Lions have added in their recent drafts is Penei Sewell, who they drafted 7th overall in 2021. Sewell showed promise with a 77.0 PFF grade as a rookie, splitting time between right tackle and left tackle, filling in for an injured Taylor Decker, and then he broke out in years two and three, once becoming a full-time right tackle opposite Decker, receiving PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.7 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Still only in his age 24 season, it’s possible Sewell could continue getting even better going forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems likely to be one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come. The Lions paid handsomely to keep him on a long-term extension this off-season, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 112 million dollar deal that was added on to the final two years of his rookie deal, but Sewell should prove to be well worth that contract and is the type of player you can’t let get away.

Taylor Decker will continue starting opposite Sewell at the left tackle spot. Also a former first round pick, back in 2016, Decker has manned that spot since his rookie year and has done well there, making 112 total starts in his career and finishing above 70 on PFF in seven of eight seasons, including six straight seasons and a 77.3 PFF grade in 2023. Decker now enters his age 30 season, but hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little, he should remain at least an above average starter. 

Center Frank Ragnow is also a former first round pick who plays at a high level, as the 2018 1st round pick has made 80 starts in six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 on PFF in five straight seasons, including three seasons over 80 and a career best 88.1 in 2023, good for 1st best among centers on PFF. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as his career best year from 2023.

The Lions weren’t quite as soon at guard last season, as compared to tackle and center, but they still got mostly solid play at those spots, with Graham Glasgow (15 starts), Jonah Jackson (12 starts), and Halapoulivaati Vaitai (3 starts) receiving grades of 75.1, 59.7, and 68.3 respectively from PFF. Jackson and Vaitai weren’t retained this off-season, but Glasgow was re-signed to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal to start at one guard spot, while free agent signing Kevin Zeitler will start at the other, after signing for 6 million on a 1-year deal this off-season.

Glasgow has made 106 starts in eight seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2016 and has mostly been a solid starter, but last season was actually the best season of his career in terms of PFF grade and, now heading into his age 32 season, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career for the second straight season. He has finished above 60 on PFF in six of the last seven seasons, including four seasons over 70, so he could remain a solid starter even if he isn’t as good as he was a year ago, but he also had a 59.3 grade as recently as 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined significantly from a year ago, especially when you consider his age.

Zeitler’s age is also a concern, as he now heads into his age 34 season and just had the second worst full season grade of his 12-year career (181 starts) in 2023, but he still had a 69.3 PFF grade and, even if he does decline further, he could still be a solid starter for the Lions. In his prime, Zeitler was one of the best guards in the league, with PFF grades over 70 in ten of his twelve seasons, including a 74.0 PFF grade as recently as 2022, and three seasons over 80, so even at less than his best, he should still be a worthwhile signing for the Lions, unless his abilities happen to completely fall off a cliff.

Depth is a concern for this group. Last year they had six starting caliber offensive linemen going into the season, but with Jackson and Vaitai both gone and only Zeitler being added, their depth is pretty suspect now. At guard Kayode Awosika (252 snaps) and Colby Sordal (253 snaps) both struggled in limited action last season. Sordal was only a 5th round rookie and could be better in year two, but he could still struggle even if he improves, while Awosika went undrafted in 2021 and has mostly struggled across 450 career snaps. At center, the Lions don’t have any reserves who were drafted in this year’s draft or who have ever played an offensive snap in the NFL, though they would probably slide Glasgow inside to center, where he has experience, and start either Awosika or Sordal in Glasgow’s spot at guard, in case of a Glasgow injury. Still, their lack of depth at both guard and center is a concern. 

Meanwhile at tackle, Dan Skipper will probably remain their swing tackle and he was decent on 101 snaps last season (66.9 PFF grade), but the 2017 undrafted free agent is already in his age 30 and has played just 546 career snaps (6 starts), with his career high 387 snaps coming in a 2022 campaign in which he received a 43.9 grade from PFF, so he’s a very underwhelming swing tackle option. The Lions did use a 4th round pick on Giovanni Manu to compete for the swing tackle job, but he would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time in case of injury. The Lions still have arguably the best starting five offensive line in the league, but their lack of depth can’t go unmentioned. 

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason for the Lions being able to quickly rebuild through the draft was the extra draft capital the Lions got from the Rams in the Stafford trade, including a pair of first round picks, but the Lions have also found steals outside of the first round, which has been more important to their quick rebuild. Probably the biggest of those steals was 2021 5th round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown immediately exceeded his draft slot with a 90/912/5 slash line and a 1.74 yards per route run average as a rookie and he’s only gotten better since then, with a 106/1161/6 slash line and a 2.40 yards per route run average in 2022 and a 119/1515/10 slash line and a 2.63 yards per route run average last season, when he also finished 7th among wide receivers on PFF with a 90.6 overall grade. 

Still only in his age 25 season, St. Brown is just now entering his prime and should be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. Going into the final year of his rookie deal in 2024, St. Brown wasn’t cheap to extend, receiving a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the third highest paid wide receiver in the league in average annual salary, but he should prove to be well worth that contract.

The Lions also found tight end Sam LaPorta in the second round of last year’s draft and he immediately broke out as one of the best tight ends in the league, ranking 5th among tight ends in receiving yardage with a 86/889/10 slash line, 6th in yards per route run with 1.76, and 5th among tight ends with a 76.5 overall grade from PFF. All that is even more impressive when you consider that tight ends, including some of the best in the league, almost always take at least a year to develop into useful pass catchers. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be even better in year two in 2024. With three years left of cheap team control, LaPorta should remain a very talented complementary pass catcher behind St. Brown for years to come.

Ironically, the one receiver the Lions did use a first round pick on, Jameson Williams, has not come close to living up to the billing yet. The Lions knew they wouldn’t get much out of Williams in year one when he took him 12th overall in 2022 just a few months removed from a torn ACL, but Williams played just 78 rookie year snaps and then missed another five games in 2023 due to suspension and injury and he didn’t play all that well even when on the field, managing just a 1.47 yards per route run average and a 24/354/2 slash line. Williams is still only in his age 23 season and had the talent to be a top-5 pick before his injury, so I wouldn’t give up on him taking a step forward, possibly even a big one, in year three, but he’s been a big disappointment thus far in his career, even with the caveat that the Lions knew he’d miss most of his rookie year when they drafted him.

Williams will at least get a lot of opportunity for playing time and targets in this receiving corps, as the Lions are very thin behind St. Brown and LaPorta, who should both continue getting huge target shares. Josh Reynolds was third on the team in receiving with a 40/608/5 slash line in 2023, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and the Lions didn’t do anything to replace him, instead banking on Williams taking a step forward. Behind St. Brown and Williams at wide receiver, the Lions’ two best options are probably Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Raymond was third among Lions receivers with a 35/489/1 slash line last season, and also had slash lines of 48/576/4 and 47/616/0 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but he’s never exceeded those receiving totals in eight years in the league and that’s unlikely to start in 2024, now his age 30 season. Peoples-Jones had a 61/839/3 slash line in 2022 for the Browns, but was not that efficient with a 1.46 yards per route run average and took a back seat in the passing game in Cleveland in 2023, before getting sent to Detroit in a mid-season trade and continuing to contribute very little, finishing the year with a 13/155/0 slash line and 0.60 yards per route run average between the two teams. Peoples-Jones is at least young, only in his age 25 season, but the 2020 6th round pick has averaged just 1.38 yards per route run for his career and doesn’t have the talent to develop into much more than he’s been throughout his career.

At tight end, the Lions retained top backup Brock Wright on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal, matching the contract the 2021 undrafted free agent received from the 49ers in restricted free agency this off-season. He has just 43 career catches and a 1.08 yards per route run average, so he won’t contribute much in the passing game, but he’s at least a solid blocker and you could do a lot worse than him as your #2 tight end. St. Brown and LaPorta highlight a very top heavy receiving corps, but Jameson Williams at least has upside as the 3rd receiving option, while Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones aren’t bad even if they’re underwhelming.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Lions also have used a first round pick on a running back recently, taking Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. It was a controversial decision because the Lions had just given a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal to veteran running back David Montgomery in free agency and because running backs taken in the first round are rarely worth it, but the Lions are a run heavy team that had enough opportunity for both Montgomery and Gibbs and they also had a lot of young talent on both sides of the field and could avoid to take a luxury position like running back.

Gibbs’ rookie season started off slow, as he had just 13.3 touches per game (9.8 carries, 3.5 catches) in his first 4 games, but he took over a bigger role when Montgomery missed 3 games with injury, averaging 22.7 touches (17.0 carries, 5.7 catches) in those 3 games and then he continued having a bigger role even after Montgomery returned, averaging 14.4 touches per game (11.7 carries, 2.7 catches) in the final 9 games of the season, while Montgomery averaged 15.0 touches per game (13.9 carries, 1.1 catches). If you look just at those final 9 games, Gibbs produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 200 carries for 1,031 yards and 15 touchdowns (5.15 YPC), with a 45/285/2 slash line as a receiver, while Montgomery produced at a level that extrapolates over 17 games to 236 carries for 1190 yards and 13 touchdowns (5.04 YPC), with a 19/96/0 slash line as a receiver,

Montgomery only averaged 3.94 YPC on 915 carries in four seasons with the Bears before joining the Lions last season, but Montgomery was on some bad offenses with bad blocking in Chicago, so it’s not that surprising that he’s been significantly better in a better situation in Detroit, finishing his first season in Detroit with a 4.63 YPC average. However, Gibbs averaged 5.19 YPC on the season and is a much more talented running back. Going into 2024 and Gibbs’ second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gibbs get an even bigger share of the running back touches, but the Lions ranked 7th in the league in carries last season and should wind up around there again this season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for both running backs.

The area Gibbs struggled the most in as a rookie was in the passing game, ironic considering that was expected to be his biggest strength. His 52/316/1 slash line looks good, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and 4.45 yards per target, so he wasn’t that efficient with his opportunity. He has a good chance to be significantly more efficient in that aspect in year two though and he’s still the better of the Lions’ top-2 backs in the passing game, with Montgomery averaging 0.72 yards per route run and 4.88 yards per target a year ago and 1.00 yards per route run and 6.22 yards per target for his career. 

Behind Gibbs and Montgomery, the Lions have Craig Reynolds, who had 41 carries for 179 yards (4.37 YPC) and 5 catches for 47 yards last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Gibbs or Montgomery missed time. Reynolds only has 142 touches in five seasons in the league, with but all two of those coming in the past three seasons, but he has a decent 4.29 YPC average and is better than a lot of #3 backs. Still, the run heavy Lions decided to use a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Sione Vaki, who could end up beating out Reynolds for that #3 back job in a very deep running back group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

After the Lions went 3-13-1 in the first year of their rebuild, they received the #2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and used it on edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who has been a big part of their improvement in recent years, proving to be more than worth where he was selected. As a rookie, Hutchinson finished with 9.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, and received a 80.7 PFF overall grade. In year two, Hutchinson got even better, finishing with 11.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate, while ranking 9th among edge defenders in overall PFF grade with 91.0, despite almost never coming off the field, playing 986 of a possible 1,090 defensive snaps, 90.5% and 3rd most in the league among edge defenders. Still only in his age 24 season, the sky’s the limit for Hutchinson, who should remain one of the top players at his position for years to come.

Aside from Hutchinson, the Lions didn’t have another edge defender play more than 400 snaps for them last season. Josh Paschal (399 snaps), Charles Harris (291 snaps), and Romeo Okwara (249 snaps) ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the team in snaps played among pure edge defenders, while John Cominsky (566 snaps) split time between the edge and the interior. The Lions are hoping that will change this season with the addition of Marcus Davenport in free agency on a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal.

Davenport was a first round pick in 2018 and has shown that level of talent when healthy, totaling a 12.9% pressure rate for his career, while finishing above 70 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. However, he’s also never played more than 533 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 32 games in six seasons in the league. Davenport is still only in his age 28 season and could be an above average starter for the Lions if healthy, something they lacked opposite Hutchinson a year ago, but he’s also likely to miss more time at some point, which is why he had to settle for a 1-year deal in free agency.

Harris and Okwara weren’t retained this off-season, but the Lions still have Josh Paschal and are expecting him to play a big role as a reserve. His 399 snaps last season came in just 12 games, with 5 games missed due to injury, and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022 who still has untapped potential. He hasn’t shown much as a pass rusher in two seasons in the league, totaling just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 22 games, but he’s at least been a solid run stuffer in limited action and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward as a pass rusher in year three, especially if he can stay healthier than he’s been (12 games missed in two seasons in the league).

The Lions are also hoping for more out of another third year edge defender, James Houston, who was limited to 31 snaps in two games due to injury last season. Houston was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and played just 140 snaps as a rookie, but he made the most of them, excelling as a situational pass rusher with 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 18.5% pressure rate, while receiving a 80.2 overall grade from PFF. It’s a very small sample size and Houston is still a relatively unproven player who was not a high draft pick, but, at the very least, the Lions should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in his injury plagued 2023 season. 

John Cominsky will also continue seeing some snaps on the edge like he did a year ago, but he’s mostly just a run stuffer as an edge defender, with a 7.7% pressure rate in 2023 and a 9.4% pressure rate for his career (57 games in five seasons). There are question marks in this group behind Hutchinson, but they at least have upside if Davenport can stay healthy and Paschal and Houston can progress in year three, and Hutchinson is one of the best players in the league at his position, so he elevates this group significantly by himself.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Lions have also drafted a talented interior defender in recent years, taking Alim McNeill in the 3rd round in the 2021 NFL Draft. McNeill took a couple years to develop into the player he was in 2023, but he still had solid grades of 60.1 and 69.8 from PFF on snap counts of 422 and 779 respectively in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 88.5 PFF grade on 559 snaps in 13 games last season, making him PFF’s 6th highest ranked interior defender.

McNeill totaled 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher last season and was equally good as a run stopper. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s also still only in his age 24 season and could easily continue being one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he could make up for it by being healthier than he was in 2023, when he missed four games.

The rest of this interior defender group was underwhelming a year ago, but the Lions hope they fixed that by signing DJ Reader from the Bengals to a 2-year, 22 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season. Reader has been one of the best run stopping interior defenders in the league in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in 6 of the past 7 seasons, with the exception being a a 2020 campaign in which he was limited to just 5 games by injury and still had a 69.3 PFF grade against the run. 

The big 6-3 335 pound Reader only has 9.5 sacks in 106 career games, but he’s a better pass rusher than that suggests, as he also has 38 hits and a 8.4% pressure rate in his career. Durability has been a concern for him in recent years, costing him 22 games in the past four seasons combined, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline, but he should still be a massive upgrade over Benito Jones, who had a 37.4 PFF grade on 566 snaps last season and was subsequently not retained as a free agent this off-season.

Behind McNeill and Reader, the Lions have John Cominsky, a hybrid player who I talked about in the edge defender section, as well as a pair of young players they are hoping for more out of this year, Levi Onwuzurike and Brodric Martin. Onwuzurike was a 2nd round pick in 2021, but disappointed with a 43.2 PFF grade on 396 snaps as a rookie and then missed the entire 2022 season due to injury, before being limited to 132 snaps in 10 games last season by more injuries. 

Onwuzurike did play significantly better than last season than he did as a rookie though, with a 68.1 PFF grade. Durability is still a concern, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a useful reserve/rotational player as long as he’s healthy, now in his fourth season in the league. Martin, meanwhile, spent his entire 2023 season as a healthy scratch, despite being a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. His career obviously isn’t off to a good start, but he came into the league with a lot of talent and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him develop into a useful reserve in 2024. At the very least, he’ll give them more by default than he did a year ago. With the addition of DJ Reader as a starter opposite Alim McNeill, this is a talented position group, even if their depth is unproven.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Lions used one of their two first round picks in last year’s draft to take linebacker Jack Campbell, which has not been one of their better selections. The value of taking Campbell, who many projected to only be a base package run stopper, in the first round was questioned from the start and those questions haven’t gone away after Campbell finished his rookie season with a 57.3 PFF grade on 637 snaps. Campbell played well against the run with a 75.9 run defense grade from PFF, but he struggled mightily in coverage with a 43.9 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he’ll still probably be a liability in coverage and for a non-rush linebacker to be worth a first round pick in the modern NFL, they have to develop into a well-rounded player who is not a liability in any situation.

Campbell actually finished third among Lions linebackers in snaps played last season. Alex Anzalone led the way with 1,005 snaps. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Anzalone was a big durability concern early in his career in New Orleans, as he missed 26 of a possible 64 games in four seasons there, while maxing out at 525 snaps played in a season, and then in his first season in Detroit in 2021 he struggled mightily in by far the biggest snap count of his career, with a 35.4 PFF grade on 827 snaps, but he’s been better with PFF grades of 59.2 and 68.1 over the past two seasons, while surpassing 1,000 snaps played in both seasons and mostly avoiding injuries. Anzalone is now going into his age 30 season and could either start declining in 2024 or see his role decreased in favor of the second year Campbell, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Anzalone be a capable every down linebacker for the second straight season.

The Lions also have Derrick Barnes, another young linebacker who could see a bigger snap count in 2024. A 4th round pick in 2021, Barnes struggled mightily with a 30.1 PFF grade on 448 snaps as a rookie, but he improved significantly with a 62.3 PFF grade on 346 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022 and carried that over to a bigger role in 2023, with a 62.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps. He’s an unspectacular player and probably won’t ever be anything more than an average starter, but this is an unspectacular Lions’ linebacking corps overall, so Barnes could be deserving of more playing time.

The Lions also have another young linebacker, Malcolm Rodriguez. He was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but wasn’t bad in a big rookie year role, with a 62.8 PFF grade on 611 snaps. With Campbell being added and Barnes taking over a bigger role, Rodriguez was relegated to a nondescript 120 snaps in 12 games played as a reserve last season, but he could earn his way into more playing time in year three. Given the at least decent promise he showed as a rookie, he’s at least a good reserve option. This is an unspectacular group overall, but they at least have some young talent with promise.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Lions have done a great job rebuilding this roster quickly, but the cornerback position was a position of weakness last season, Only one of the five cornerbacks who played more than 100 snaps for the Lions finished with a PFF grade above 60 and that player was Brian Branch, another talented young player the Lions have, a 2023 second round pick who received a 78.1 PFF grade on 736 snaps as a rookie, but a part-time cornerback who could see more time at safety in 2024. 

This off-season, the Lions made improving the cornerback position a priority, trading a third round pick to the Buccaneers for Carlton Davis, who is owed 14.5 million in the final year of his contract in 2024, and then using 1st and 2nd round picks on Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, a pair of cornerbacks who were both considered good values at their draft slot. The Lions also parted ways with three of the four cornerbacks who saw significant action for them last season and struggled, with only Kindle Vildor (57.6 PFF grade on 200 snaps) returning as a deep reserve who isn’t guaranteed a roster spot. Davis and Arnold are currently expected to start outside, but Rakestraw could see a role as well, especially if Branch plays more safety in 2024.

The veteran Davis will probably be the Lions’ de facto #1 cornerback while Arnold and Rakestraw develop. Davis has been a solid starter for most of his career, but he fell to a 58.2 PFF grade last season, after surpassing 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league, including a career best 70.4 in 2019. Davis is only going into his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also suffered a lot of injuries throughout his career, never playing more than 14 games in a season and missing 23 games total in six seasons in the league, so it’s possible that his injuries have caught up with him and made him age quicker, in which case it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling in 2024. Even if he bounces back, he’ll almost definitely miss more time at some point this season. Still, it wouldn’t be hard for him and the Lions’ two rookie cornerbacks to be an upgrade over what the Lions had at the position a year ago.

The Lions also signed veteran Amik Robertson in free agency and could get something out of Emmanuel Moseley, who is coming off of two injury plagued seasons. Robertson had a much easier path to playing time before Arnold and Rakestraw were drafted, but the 2-year, 9.25 million dollar deal the Lions gave him suggests they value him at least decently, so he could still earn a role even with the two rookies being added, especially if Branch plays more safety this season or if Carlton Davis misses more time with injury. Capable of being on the slot and outside, Robertson has received decent grades of 64.1 and 63.4 from PFF on snap counts of 677 and 674 over the past two seasons respectively and the 2020 4th round pick is only in his age 26 season.

Moseley might be the odd man out in a suddenly deep position group. He flashed potential early in his career in San Francisco with PFF grades of 70.0, 58.3, 68.7, and 70.9 respectively in his first four seasons of playing time, but he never played more than 602 snaps in a season due to injury, while missing 22 games in those four seasons, including 12 games missed in his final season in San Francisco with a torn ACL. The Lions took a chance on him in free agency last off-season, only to see him tear his other ACL just two snaps into the season. Still only in his age 28 season, Moseley could have some bounce back potential if he’s healthy, but he’ll start the season at best as a deep reserve. It will likely be between him and Kindle Vildor, a 2020 5th round pick who has struggled throughout his career, for the last spot on the cornerback depth chart, a battle Moseley should be favored in.

The reason Brian Branch could play more safety in 2024 is because the Lions lost Tracy Walker (541 snaps) and CJ Gardner-Johnson (186 snaps) this off-season and didn’t replace them. The Lions still have Kerby Joseph (909 snaps) and Ifeatu Melifonwu (398 snaps) and both will compete for starting jobs, but Branch will probably see more action at this position as well. Kerby was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has made 29 starts in 32 games in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.0 and 57.7 respectively. He hasn’t been more than a capable starter in two years in the league and he took a step back in year two, but he’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward to have his best season yet in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, he should be considered the favorite to keep his starting job.

Melifonwu was also a 3rd round pick, back in 2021. He’s only played 738 snaps total in three seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have the experience that Joseph has, but he flashed a lot of potential with a 85.6 PFF grade in 6 starts as an injury replacement in 2023 and, even if Branch plays more safety this season, Melifonwu could still earn an expanded role in 2024. Melifonwu is a projection to a larger role and was mediocre in his first two seasons before showing his potential last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him be at least a capable sub package player. The Lions’ secondary was a bit of a weakness last season, especially at cornerback, but this is a much deeper group than a year ago, even if they lack top end talent besides of Brian Branch.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Lions’ championship window might be closing soon, as it will be tough for them to keep all their talent under the cap long-term, but they are very much in the mix as contenders in 2023, with one of the best rosters in the league. Already one of the best teams in the league a year ago, the Lions are arguably better this season due to off-season additions like DJ Reader, Marcus Davenport, and Carlton Davis, among others. In terms of average annual value of their roster, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage, the Lions rank 4th, up from 23rd a year ago. That kind of spending isn’t sustainable long-term, but it should put them on the short list for Super Bowl contenders in 2024, especially since they play in the much weaker NFC.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

Six off-seasons ago, the Vikings made a big decision to sign veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. The Vikings had just made the NFC Championship game with third string quarterback Case Keenum, who surprisingly played at a high level, but felt Keenum couldn’t would not repeat that level of play and opted to give big money to Cousins, who they felt was the missing piece on a strong overall roster. Cousins was initially signed to a 3-year, 84 million dollar deal and ultimately took him 185 million during his six seasons in Minnesota, but as a result of that, the Vikings found it hard to keep talent around the quarterback, which combined with untimely injuries and key players getting older, led to the Vikings going 50-37-1 with Cousins under center and winning just one playoff game.

Cousins himself wasn’t bad at all, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 171 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, but the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league.

This off-season, the Vikings opted to move on from Cousins and not get into a bidding war with the Atlanta Falcons for his services, with Cousins signing a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 8th highest paid quarterback in the league by average annual salary, despite the fact that Cousins now heads into his age 36 season and is coming off of a torn Achilles tendon. Instead, the Vikings used a first round pick on quarterback JJ McCarthy and will attempt to surround McCarthy with enough talent to compete for a Super Bowl while he is still on his cheap rookie contract.

That might have been the better of the Vikings’ two options, but McCarthy enters the league very raw and, even on a cheap contract, his chances of leading this team deeper in the playoffs than Cousins did depends on him developing into the kind of quarterback worth the 10th overall pick, which is far from a guarantee. In year one, McCarthy will compete with veteran journeyman Sam Darnold for the starting job, a competition McCarthy could easily lose. 

Darnold is a former high draft pick in his own right, going 3rd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He struggled early in his career as a starter with the Jets and Panthers, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.54 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions in 49 starts in his first four seasons in the league, but he had terrible coaching and a terrible supporting cast early in his career and he’s shown signs of improvement in a limited sample size in better situations over the past two seasons, completing 59.1% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts.

Still only in his age 27 season, Darnold is a worthwhile reclamation project on a 1-year, 10 million dollar contract and he definitely has a chance to hold off McCarthy for the starting job, at least to begin the season. Either way, I wouldn’t expect much out of the quarterback position in Minnesota this season, but it’s understandable why the Vikings hit the reset button at the position this off-season, rather than doubling down on an expensive, aging Kirk Cousins. If McCarthy develops as expected long-term, the Vikings will be able to spend money to load up on talent around him and try to make the deep playoff run that they failed to make in Cousins’ tenure with the team.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Vikings didn’t make many big additions this off-season around their new quarterback, but the good news is the Vikings were actually a lot better than their 7-10 record suggested last season, finishing with a positive first down rate differential (+1.06%) and a positive yards per play differential (+0.35). That’s despite the fact that they got shaky quarterback play in Kirk Cousins’ absence, with their other quarterbacks completing 65.0% of their passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions over 9 starts, and that’s despite the fact that their top offensive weapon Justin Jefferson missed 7 games with injuries of his own.

Jefferson is one of the best players in the league at any position and having him likely playing more games than he did a year ago should be a big boost for this offense. A first round pick in 2020, Jefferson had slash lines of 88/1400/7, 108/1616/10, and 128/1809/8 in his first three seasons in the league respectively and in 2023 he had a 68/1075/5 slash line, despite playing just 10 games and having shaky quarterback play for much of those 10 games. 

In total, Jefferson has averaged 2.67 yards per route run in four seasons in the league and, still only in his age 25 season, he has plenty more of his prime to go. With the money the Vikings saved from not re-signing Cousins, the Vikings were able to extend Jefferson this off-season on a much deserved 4-year, 140 million dollar deal that makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

With Jefferson missing a big chunk of the season last season, first round rookie Jordan Addison took on a bigger role than expected and he did well with it, considering it was only his first year in the league. He finished with a 70/911/10 slash line on 108 targets with 1.50 yards per route run and was even better in the seven games Jefferson missed, producing a slash line that extrapolates to 85/1061/10 on 129 targets over a full 17 game season. He’ll play more of a supporting role in 2024, but could easily take a step forward in efficiency in his second season in the league. With Jefferson opposite him, the Vikings have a 1-2 punch at wide receiver that has the upside to be as good as any in the league.

Tight end TJ Hockenson also had a big role last season with Jefferson missing time, averaging 1.89 yards per route run (5th) and totaling a 95/960/5 slash line on 127 targets. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in week 16 and is now questionable for the start of the 2024 season, only about 8 months removed from the injury when the season kicks off. Even if he does make it back for week 1, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll play at his top form in his first season back from injury. Hockenson is a former first round pick who is only in his age 27 season and had a 86/914/6 slash line with 1.60 yards per route run in 2022, so he’s more than capable of repeating last season’s performance if he’s healthy, but that’s a big question mark.

If Hockenson is out to start the season, Robert Tonyan will likely be the Vikings’ primary pass catching tight end. Tonyan had a 52/586/10 slash line with a 1.58 yards per route run average in 2020, but he benefited significantly from playing with an MVP level Aaron Rodgers and he hasn’t been the same since, averaging just 1.08 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined. Now going into his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he could be a decent injury fill-in for a few games if needed. The Vikings also have Josh Oliver, who was the #2 tight end last season, but he’s just a good blocker, with run blocking grades of 74.6 and 73.9 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but just 48 catches in 52 career games with a 0.94 yards per route run average, so he’s not really a candidate for an expanded passing game role even if Hockenson misses time.

The Vikings also lost #3 receiver KJ Osburn in free agency this off-season and he played a significant role last season with Jefferson missing time, totaling a 48/540/3 slash line on 75 targets, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and has just a 1.11 yards per route run average for his career, so if he’s missed, it’ll only be because the Vikings didn’t do much to replace him this off-season, leaving the #3 receiver job to Brandon Powell, a career special teamer who had only a 1.13 yards per route run average last season when forced into a significant role by Jefferson’s injury, or to Trent Sherfield, a veteran journeyman with a career 0.84 yards per route run average and their only addition at the position this off-season. 

The Vikings also have 2022 6th round pick Jalen Nailor, but he has just 12 catches in two seasons in the league, so he’s unlikely to be a big factor either. The Vikings will need both Jefferson and Addison to stay healthy because they really lack depth behind them. With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, the Vikings have a great top trio of pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy group and Hockenson is coming off of a serious injury, which affects the overall grade of this group.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One big addition the Vikings made on offense this off-season was signing running back Aaron Jones away from division rival Green Bay. Running back was a big position of need this off-season, as the Vikings ranked 24th in the NFL with a 3.95 YPC average and 29th with 1,553 total rushing yards last season, despite ranking 10th on PFF in team run blocking grade. Jones, meanwhile, averaged 5.05 YPC with 45 touchdowns on 1,177 carries in seven seasons in the league with the Packers, including a 4.62 YPC average and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries last season. Jones also contributes in the passing game, with a career 1.24 yards per route run average and a career 48/364/3 slash line average per 17 games.

However, Jones is now heading into his age 30 season, which is a common age for running backs to drop off significantly, especially undersized, injury prone backs like Jones, who is just 5-9 208 and who has missed time in 5 of his 7 seasons in the league, totaling 18 missed games, with 6 of those coming just last season. The Vikings didn’t break the bank for Jones, nor did they make a significant long-term commitment, signing him to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal, but that does make him the 10th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and it’s very possible Jones proves not to be worth that salary. Still, Jones should be an upgrade over what they had a year ago, when they had one of the league’s worst running back rooms. 

Ty Chandler was the best of the bunch a year ago, with 461 yards and 3 touchdowns on 102 carries (4.52 YPC), despite being only a 5th round pick in 2022 and only having 6 carries as a rookie prior to last season. He’s probably not suited to be a starter, but you could do worse than him as a #2 back and he should be more than capable of spelling Jones for a few touches here and there. The Vikings will need their top-2 backs to stay healthy though, as their depth behind Jones and Chandler consists of return man Kene Nwangwu, who has 27 carries in 3 seasons in the league, journeyman Myles Gaskin, who has a career 3.75 YPC average on 361 carries in five seasons in the league, and 2023 7th round pick DeWayne McBride, who spent his entire rookie season on the practice squad, despite a weak running back room ahead of him. The addition of Jones improves this group, but Jones’ age and injury history are significant concerns.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Not much changed on the offensive line for the Vikings this off-season. The Vikings did make a change at the left guard position mid-season in 2023 though. Ezra Cleveland began last season as the starter at that spot and had an impressive 73.6 PFF grade in 6 games, but the Vikings opted to trade him at the deadline for a draft pick, with Cleveland set to hit free agency the following off-season. Dalton Risner took his place and mostly struggled, finishing with a 57.1 PFF grade on 745 snaps. Risner was still brought back as a free agent this off-season though and he could be better, finishing in the 60s on PFF in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (62 starts).

The rest of this group is the same as it was all last season. Center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram were mediocre last season with PFF grades of 60.9 and 59.5 respectively, but neither has much real competition for their job, with the alternatives being veteran journeyman Dan Feeney, who posted PFF grades of 49.2, 51.7, and 48.2 in three seasons as a starter from 2018-2020 and has subsequently played just 384 snaps in three seasons since, and Blake Brandel, 2020 6th round pick, who has been mediocre in limited action thus far in his career, playing just 502 snaps in four seasons in the league and finishing below 60 on PFF in every season. 

Bradbury was a first round pick in 2019 and has made 71 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has never been much more than a capable starter, maxing out with a 70.2 PFF grade in 2022, and he’s already heading into his age 29 season, so it’s unlikely he has much untapped talent at this point. Ingram, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 57.1 PFF grade as a rookie. He’s still young enough that there’s a good chance he takes a step forward in year three in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect a lot out of him either.

The tackle position is in much better shape, as left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill are among the best tackle duos in the league. Darrisaw was a first round pick in 2021 and has more than lived up to his billing, receiving grades of 71.9, 90.3, and 82.4 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league respectively, making him already one of the best left tackles in the league, only going into his age 25 season. 

O’Neill isn’t quite as good, but he’s been incredibly consistent throughout his career as the 2018 2nd round pick has received a grade of 70 or higher from PFF in five straight seasons, dating back to his second season in the league. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. The Vikings also have veteran swing tackle David Quessenberry,  who has been decent in limited action as a starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 61.7, 80.6, 59.3, and 64.8 in a total of 30 starts, though he’s now heading into his age 34 season. The Vikings tackles significantly elevate an otherwise mediocre offensive line.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Vikings made some big additions on defense, but the biggest one was more of a lateral move, as they allowed edge defender Danielle Hunter to sign a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal with the Texans and replaced him with a former Texan, Jonathan Greenard, who they signed to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal. Hunter received a PFF grade of 78.0 on 1,004 snaps last season, with 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, which would normally be a lot to replace, but Greenard had a 76.7 PFF grade on 697 snaps, with 12.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, so he won’t be much of a downgrade. He probably won’t play as many snaps as Hunter did, but he could easily match Hunter’s level of play.

Hunter does have more of a proven track record, as Greenard had played just 963 snaps in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, in large part due to injury, and only had a 8.9% pressure rate over those three seasons, but Greenard is also significantly younger, going into his age 27 season, while Hunter goes into his age 30 season, so Greenard could easily be the better player over the next few seasons. Greenard might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023 and injuries are a concern, as he’s missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average edge defender as long as he can stay on the field.

The Hunter/Greenard swap wasn’t the only move the Vikings made at the edge defender position, as they completely overhauled this group this off-season. DJ Wonnum, who was second among Vikings edge defenders with 826 snaps played, wasn’t brought back, which isn’t a huge loss as he only had a 62.3 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate. The Vikings will be replacing him with another free agent signing, ex-Dolphin Andrew Van Ginkel, as well as rookie Dallas Turner, who the Vikings moved back up into the first round to select. Van Ginkel was only signed to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, but he could prove to be a steal if he plays anything like he did last season when he received a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, excelling as a pass rusher, run defender, and in coverage. In total, he had 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. 

Van Ginkel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season on the snap count he played at last season, but he did have 10 sacks, 27 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in the previous three seasons combined, while excelling against the run and playing an average of 538 snaps per season, so last season’s breakout year didn’t come out of nowhere. Van Ginkel is only a former 5th round pick, selected in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he’s also still only in his age 29 season and could easily continue playing at least at an above average level in 2024. Van Ginkel, Greenard, and the rookie Turner should all play significant roles and could easily be one of the better edge defender trios in the league if they all stay healthy and play up to their potential.

The Vikings also still have Pat Jones, who played 634 snaps last season, but he struggled mightily with a 37.5 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate, so he’ll rightfully be playing a smaller role this season. Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and played better on a smaller snap count in 2022, with a 62.5 PFF grade on 308 snaps, so he could be a useful depth player and he might still have some further untapped upside. Jones will compete for a deep reserve role with veteran free agent addition Jihad Ward, who has played an average of 488 snaps per season over the past 5 seasons, but who has also only finished above 60 on PFF once in those 5 seasons. Now in his age 30 season, Ward was only given 1 million guaranteed this off-season and shouldn’t be guaranteed a roster spot. This remade group is much deeper than a year ago, even with former top edge defender Danielle Hunter going elsewhere this off-season.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Vikings didn’t make any big additions at the interior defender position this off-season, even though it was a position of weakness a year ago. Harrison Phillips (838 snaps) and Jonathan Bullard (643 snaps) led the way as the starters and both struggled, with PFF grades of 59.7 and 46.3 respectively. Phillips has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 5.9% pressure rate in six seasons in the league, but that fell even further to a 4.8% pressure rate in 2023 and his run defense dropped off as well, down from a 79.8 PFF grade in 2021 and a 73.6 PFF grade in 2022 to a 65.6 PFF grade in 2023. 

Phillips is only in his age 28 season, so there’s some bounce back potential here, at least in terms of run defense, but he’s a pretty underwhelming player to have as your top interior defender. Bullard, meanwhile, had never played more than 437 snaps in a season his first seven seasons in the league prior to last season and he had four straight seasons below 60 on PFF going into last season, so it’s not a surprise that he struggled mightily in an expanded role. Now in his age 31 season, I would expect his struggles to continue, even if he moves into a smaller role.

The Vikings did add some new depth options this off-season, but they’re not necessarily upgrades. Jonah Williams comes over from the Rams, where he saw his role grow in four seasons after going undrafted in 2020, not playing a snap as a rookie, playing 97 snaps in year two, 342 snaps in year three, and 597 snaps last season, but he mostly struggled, with PFF grades of 53.6 and 55.6 over the past two seasons respectively in the only two seasons of significant action in his career. Already in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect more out of him in 2024.

Jerry Tillery was also added, coming over from the Raiders. He had a 67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps in 2023, with his best play coming as an interior pass rusher, where he had a 10.2% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue playing at that level, but he had never had a PFF grade higher than 50 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He is a former first round pick, so it’s possible he’s finally turned a corner as a player, but he could also regress. Tillery and Williams might be better depth options by default than the Vikings’ depth options a year ago and Harrison Phillips has some bounce back potential, but this is still a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Vikings also made a big addition at the linebacker position, signing Blake Cashman to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal, but that’s a lateral move at best, with the Vikings losing their top linebacker from a year ago, Jordan Hicks, after he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games in 2023. Cashman was even better than that, with a 83.7 PFF grade, but that only came on 655 snaps in 14 games and he’s a complete one-year wonder, as the 2019 5th round pick had only played 609 snaps in 4 seasons in the league prior to his surprising breakout 2023 season and had never come close to showing the kind of potential he showed in 2023. Injuries were part of the reason for his lack of playing time early in his career, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as good two years in a row and durability concerns still remain. He’ll likely be a downgrade from Hicks, though he does have a good chance to at least be a solid starter.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a strong 2023 season out of nowhere. Despite going completely undrafted in 2023, Pace had a 77.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps as a rookie. The fact that he went undrafted just a year ago is not irrelevant at this point in his career and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was unable to repeat his surprise rookie season, but he also has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Pace and Cashman both had strong seasons in 2023, finishing 17th and 5th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but I wouldn’t expect either one to be as good in 2024.

Behind Cashman and Pace, the Vikings have questionable depth. Brian Asamoah was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but hasn’t gotten on the field much in two years in the league, playing 157 defensive snaps total. He might still have some untapped potential, but he could also struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Vikings also added veteran Kamu Grugier-Hill, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons on an average of 452 snaps per season and now heads into his age 30 season, so he’s a pretty mediocre option, even as a reserve. This group has a high upside if Cashman and Pace can manage to come close to last season’s level of play, but that’s far from a guarantee and the downside is pretty significant as well.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Vikings’ secondary is the safety position, as they used 3 safeties on the field at the same time by far more than any team in the league, to try to mask their lack of depth at cornerback and at linebacker. Camryn Bynum (1,120 snaps), Harrison Smith (1,111 snaps), and Josh Metellus (1,063 snaps) all played almost all of the Vikings’ 1,129 defensive snaps last season, with Metellus being the one who moved around the most, lining up as a slot cornerback or linebacker more often than he lined up in a traditional safety spot. All three played pretty well, with PFF grades of 73.2, 68.9, and 69.2 respectively, but there’s at least some reason to be concerned that they won’t all play at the same level in 2024.

The biggest reason is that Smith, by far the most accomplished of the bunch, now heads into his age 35 season. In his prime, Smith was one of the best safeties in the league, surpassing a 70 grade on PFF in 8 straight seasons from 2014-2021, with four seasons over 80 and a career best 92.3 in 2017, but he’s fallen below 70 in back-to-back years and could continue declining in 2024, given his age. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be worse than a year ago. 

Metellus and Bynum, on the other hand, are younger, but with that youth comes inexperience. Bynum was a 4th round pick in 2021 and showed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie, with a 78.3 PFF grade on 211 snaps, but he struggled in his first full season as a starter in 2022, with a 58.2 PFF grade and, while he was obviously much better than that in his second full season as a starter, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter like he was a year ago. 

It’s very possible Bynum has permanently turned a corner and could continue playing at an above average level or even better than a year ago, but he could also regress a little bit. Metellus, meanwhile, was in his first season as a starter last season, after the 2020 6th round pick only played 329 snaps in his first three seasons in the league. He flashed a lot of potential with a 85.1 PFF grade on 259 snaps in 2022, but that’s a small sample size. He’ll probably remain at least a solid starter in 2024, but the fact that last season was his only season as a starter is a bit of a concern. 

It’s also unlikely all three safeties play all 17 games like they did a year ago, as that’s very tough to do two years in a row, but the Vikings do have good depth at the position. Theo Jackson was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and has played just 143 defensive snaps in his career, but was decent with a 67.6 PFF grade on 125 snaps in 2023. Meanwhile, Lewis Cine is a 2022 1st round pick who has been a major bust to this point in his career, playing just 10 total defensive snaps in two seasons in the league as a result of injury and poor performance, but he’s still young and talented and could at least be a useful reserve in 2024.

At cornerback, the Vikings’ two starters Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans both struggled with PFF grades of 58.0 and 55.0 respectively in 2023. Murphy was signed to a 2-year, 17.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season and is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary, but the Vikings will have a competition at the other spot and there’s a good chance Evans doesn’t keep his job. Mekhi Blackmon was a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and played well in limited action while gradually seeing his playing time increase, finishing with a 71.8 PFF grade on 434 snaps, with 329 of those snaps coming in week 8 or later. He’s still a projection to a starting role, but has the talent to develop into an above average starter long-term and could easily be at least an adequate starter if needed in 2024.

The Vikings also signed Shaq Griffin in free agency, adding the journeyman on a 1-year, 4.55 million dollar deal. Griffin’s career got off to a good start, as the 2017 3rd round pick of the Seahawks made 67 starts in his first five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 64.1, and 72.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively and earning a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal from the Jaguars as a free agent after the 2020 season. However, injuries limited him to 336 snaps in 5 games in 2022 and he was subsequently made a cap casualty prior to the final year of his contract in Jacksonville in 2023, rather than being paid 13.5 million. 

Griffin caught on with the Texans in free agency on a 1-year deal last off-season and was decent with a 66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps in 10 games in Houston, but he lost his role in a deep cornerback group and was ultimately waived mid-season, before landing in Carolina and seeing just 77 snaps the rest of the season. Griffin is still only in his age 29 season, so he has some bounce back potential, despite the last two seasons not going according to plan. He and Blackmon would both likely be upgrades on Evans, who may also have some untapped potential in his own right, as a 2022 4th round pick who has struggled thus far in his career.

Murphy could also be better than a year ago, although it’s unlikely he’ll live up to the contract the Vikings gave him last off-season. Murphy was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 26 season, but he’s never received a grade higher than 66.7 grade from PFF for a season and that came in an injury shortened 2022 campaign in which he played just 595 snaps in 9 games. In three of his five seasons in the league, he’s finished below 60 on PFF. 

Even if Murphy bounces back in 2024, his ceiling is probably only an adequate starter and he could easily struggle again. The Vikings also have 2022 2nd round pick Andrew Booth, but he’s played just 256 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league and is unlikely to carve out a role, even in an underwhelming position group overall. The Vikings will once again be relying on their safety depth to mask their issues at the cornerback position, even if they should be better at cornerback by default compared to last season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings were better than their 7-10 record in 2023, finishing with positive yards per play and first down rate differentials, despite the fact that starting quarterback Kirk Cousins and top wide receiver Justin Jefferson both missed significant time with injury. Cousins isn’t returning in 2024, but Jefferson should be healthier and the Vikings quarterbacks should be better than they were in Cousins’ absence last season. A lot of whether or not this team can contend for a playoff spot is dependent on how their quarterbacks perform, which is a question mark, but they have a solid supporting cast on both sides of the ball.

Update: The Vikings will start Sam Darnold all season with JJ McCarthy out for the year due to injury, which hurts their upside significantly, especially since they have one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC North

Green Bay Packers 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Quarterback

Three years ago, the Packers made a surprising decision in the first round of the draft, selecting quarterback Jordan Love to be the long-term replacement for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It made some sense, with Rodgers set to enter his age 37 season and coming off of a season in which he had the 3rd worst QB rating of his tenure as a starter in 2019, but Rodgers responded by posting a career best QB rating en route to winning MVP, while Love struggled behind the scenes.

The original plan was probably to trade Rodgers following 2020 and replace him with the younger, cheaper Love, but with Rodgers playing well and Love not progressing like they had hoped, suddenly the tables were turned and the Packers spent most of the off-season convincing Rodgers to stay, after he demanded a trade and threatened retirement, feeling disrespected by the selection of Love. 

Rodgers eventually stayed after receiving a pay raise and followed up his 2020 MVP season with another MVP season in 2021, while Love struggled in a lone spot starter in place of Rodgers. However, things started to shift in 2022. Rodgers started showing his age, posting a career worst QB rating, while Love started to improve significantly behind the scenes, showing his progress in mop up duty in a meaningless week 18 game. 

Last off-season, Rodgers and the Packers finally agreed to a mutual split, with the 4-time NFL MVP being sent to the Jets for a draft pick, leaving the job to Love as he entered his 4th season in the league. The Packers were in an awkward contract situation with Love, whose first round contract required the Packers to either pick up an expensive guaranteed 5th year option for 2024, or let him be a free agent following the 2023 season, but the two sides came on an agreement where the Packers declined his 5th year option, but gave him a one-year extension that was cheaper than the 5th year option would have been.

To start the 2023 season, Love looked like he wouldn’t be the long-term solution for the Packers, completing just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 6.38 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with a 64.5 PFF grade in the first 7 games of the season, while going just 2-5. However, something seemed to click for him mid-season, as he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league the rest of the way, leading the Packers to a 7-3 record in the final 10 games of the regular season and not just an unlikely playoff berth, but also an unlikely first round upset of the Cowboys, before a close loss to the 49ers in the second round. In total, Love completed 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions with a 90.5 PFF grade in his final 12 starts of the season, including playoffs, the 2nd best PFF grade in the NFL over that stretch.

It was a small sample size and it’s far from a guarantee that Love will continue playing at that level, but he’s unlikely to regress to his first half of the 2023 season form and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2024 as he was in the second half of 2023, he has clearly cemented himself as the Packers long-term quarterback of the future and at least an above average starting quarterback. As of this writing, he has yet to be signed long-term ahead of the final year of his contract, but an extension is reportedly in the works and he figures to be one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. 

Love will likely be backed up for the second straight year by Sean Clifford, a 5th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. With Love not missing any time last season, Clifford only attempted one pass his whole rookie season and it’s unclear if he’ll develop into a capable backup long-term, but he’s probably the best option the Packers have, with the alternative being Michael Pratt, a 7th round pick in this year’s draft. Whoever wins the backup job, they would almost definitely be a massive downgrade from Love in case of injury. The Packers will need Love to stay healthy if they want to continue being a playoff caliber team.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Jordan Love did significantly improve his play down the stretch last season, but he wasn’t the only reason for this offense’s significant second half improvement, as the Packers had a very talented, but very young receiving corps that significantly improved as the season went on. Jayden Reed, a second round rookie, led the group in receiving with a 64/793/8 slash line and a 2.05 yards per route run average, while posting a 75.1 grade from PFF. 

Fellow rookie Dontayvion Wicks was also very efficient, albeit in a smaller role, playing just 458 snaps and only finishing with a 39/581/4 slash line, but on an average of 2.04 yards per route run with a 78.4 PFF grade, despite only being a 5th round pick. Romeo Doubs, a 2022 4th round pick, led the group in snaps played (845) and targets (96), but was not nearly as effective as Reed and Wicks, posting a 59/674/8 slash line with just a 1.32 yards per route run average, and a 68.9 PFF grade. Doubs was also underwhelming with a 42/425/3 slash line, a 1.36 yards per route run average, and a 62.6 PFF grade as a rookie in 2022 and could easily end up in a smaller role in year three, given that other young receivers have outplayed him. 

Coming into last season, 2022 2nd round pick Christian Watson was expected to be the best receiver on this team, after a rookie season in which he shined in a limited role, only playing 507 snaps, but averaging 2.26 yards per route run and finishing with a 41/611/7 slash line, despite the limited playing time. However, Watson missed 8 games with injury in 2023 and was limited in several others, leading to him averaging just 1.56 yards per route run and posting just a 28/422/5 slash line. Watson still has a lot of upside though and could easily take a big step forward in 2024 if he’s healthy. Reed, Wicks, and Doubs also have the upside to be better in 2024 than they were in 2023.

Bo Melton and Malik Heath also saw small roles last season and both are also young. Melton only played 139 snaps in five games as an injury fill-in, but he excelled in limited action, with a 16/218/1 slash line, a team best 88.1 PFF grade, and a team best 2.83 yards per route run average. It’s a very small sample size for a 2022 7th round pick who had never played an offensive snap in the NFL prior to that, but he’s a good insurance option to have. 

Heath, meanwhile, was not nearly as good, as the 2023 undrafted free agent played 260 snaps and averaged just 1.07 yards per route run. Heath is far from a guarantee to even make the final active roster in 2024 given all of the other wide receivers the Packers have and the same is the case for Samari Toure, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 251 career snaps with a 0.98 yards per route run average, and Grant DuBose, a 2023 7th round pick who didn’t play an offensive snap as a rookie and spent most of the season on the practice squad.

The Packers have more youth at the tight end position, with 2023 2nd round pick Luke Musgrave (468 snaps) and 2023 3rd round pick Tucker Kraft (621 snaps) leading the position in snaps as rookies last season. Musgrave missed 6 games with injury last season and was their primary pass catching tight end when healthy. His 34/352/1 slash line and 1.28 yards per route run average were mediocre, but he has the talent to take a step forward in year two. Kraft, meanwhile, played all 17 games and had a 31/355/2 slash line with a 1.20 yards per route run average. He also has the upside to take a step forward in year two, but will probably be more of a blocker than a receiving option as long as Musgrave is healthy. Overall, this is a talented young receiving corps with the upside to keep getting better in 2024. They don’t have a true #1 receiver, but this is a very deep group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Packers made a big addition at the running back position this off-season, signing ex-Raider Josh Jacobs to a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal, making him the 5th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. In the process, the Packers moved on from Aaron Jones, who had been a talented running back for them for many years. Last season, Jones missed six games with injury, but remained a talented back when healthy, rushing for 656 yards and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries (4.62 YPC) in 11 games, while averaging 1.40 yards per route run and posting a 30/233/1 slash line as a receiver. 

Jacobs is about the same price as Jones would have been, with Jones originally set to make 12 million this season, but he’s significantly younger (age 26 season vs. age 30 season), which is a big deal at the running back position, and Jacobs should be healthier than Jones was a year ago, having only missed 10 games in five seasons in the league. Jacobs has been inconsistent throughout his career and has just a 4.25 YPC average in five seasons in the league, but that’s in part due to having a mostly mediocre offense around him with the Raiders (3.01 career yards per carry after contact), he still has an impressive 51.6% career carry success rate, and he he has routinely carried the load at the running back position, averaging 304 carries per 17 games in his career, while averaging 1.15 yards per route run and a 46/337/0 slash line per 17 games. His expensive contract almost ensures he’ll have a similar role with his new team.

With Jones missing significant time last season and being limited in some games even while healthy, AJ Dillon led this team in carries with 178, but he struggled with a 3.44 YPC average (2.69 yards per carry after contact) and it was a surprise the Packers brought him back on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal, despite the signing of Jacobs to be the feature back. Dillon has been better in the past, with a 4.34 YPC average on 418 carries (3.10 yards per carry after contact) in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2020, and he’s a useful passing down back, with a career 1.09 yards per route run average, but he’ll be a true backup to Jacobs and might not even be that, with the Packers using their 3rd round pick on MarShawn Lloyd as competition for the #2 back role. With Lloyd added, Jacobs likely to be healthier than Jones was, and Dillon having some bounce back potential after a career worst 2023, this should be a deeper backfield than a year ago, albeit at an expensive price.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Packers made some changes on the offensive line this off-season. The biggest name that is gone is left tackle David Bakhtiari, who was released this off-season ahead of 21.5 million non-guaranteed owed in his age 33 season in 2024, but he had been consistently injured in recent years and only played one game in 2023, so his absence won’t be felt too much. The Packers also lost free agent departure Yosh Njiman, a useful reserve who had played in Bakhtiari’s absence in recent years, but he only played 230 nondescript snaps last season (61.7 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much either.

Guard Jon Runyan leaving in free agency is the most noteworthy loss on the offensive line, as he started 17 games last season, but he struggled with a 54.7 PFF grade, so it won’t be too hard to replace him either. Options to replace him include Royce Newman and Sean Rhyan. Newman has made 24 starts in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, but he has earned grades of 55.7, 57.5, and 44.3 in those three seasons and barely played in 2023 (183 snaps), so he would be an underwhelming option, while Rhyan, a 2022 3rd round pick, missed his whole rookie year with injury and then underwhelmed with a 51.7 PFF grade on 183 snaps in 2023. Rhyan is still only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward, but Newman is already in his age 27 season and is unlikely to develop into more than a backup caliber player.

More likely, the Packers will either move first round pick tackle Jordan Morgan inside to guard, or keep him at tackle and move tackle Zach Tom inside. Tom was only a 4th round pick in 2022, but flashed talent with a 68.3 PFF grade on 489 snaps as a rookie before breaking out as the Packers’ best offensive lineman in 2023, making 17 starts at tackle with a 77.8 PFF grade. It’s a little risky to change his position after such a strong season at tackle, but Tom has the versatility to play guard or even center and it sounds like the Packers think he has even greater upside long-term on the inside.

Assuming one of Tom or Morgan moves inside, Rasheed Walker figures to continue starting at tackle opposite whichever of Tom or Morgan stays outside. Walker was only a 7th round pick in 2022 and didn’t play an offensive snap as a rookie, but he was solid with a 66.4 PFF grade in 15 starts at tackle in 2023 in place of the injured Bakhtiari and, while he doesn’t have a big upside, he could remain at least a capable starting tackle in 2024. If Tom and Morgan start at tackle, Walker would move to the swing tackle role, but most likely he’ll remain in the starting lineup. The Packers also signed veteran Andre Dillard, a former first round pick, in free agency, but he’s been middling at best in just 19 career starts in five seasons in the league, including a 51.0 PFF grade on a career high 562 snaps in 2023, so he’s very likely to be a backup and not a real option to start.

Guard Elgton Jenkins has also played some tackle in his career, but the Packers seem to prefer him at guard. A 2nd round pick in 2019, Jenkins has been a solid or better offensive lineman throughout his career, posting grades of 69.2, 67.7, 82.1, 72.3, and 65.4 on PFF in five seasons in the league. His career best season in 2021 was shortened to 496 snaps in 8 games by a torn ACL, but he’s only missed four games in his other 4 seasons combined. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

At center, Josh Myers remains, but could move to guard if the Packers decide center is Zach Tom’s best spot. Myers was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has made 40 starts in three seasons in the league, including all 34 in two seasons since an injury plagued rookie season, but he has been pretty mediocre, with grades of 58.3, 60.4, and 55.8 from PFF in three seasons in the league. Only in his age 26 season, he may have some untapped upside, but most likely he’ll remain a middling at best starter at whatever position he ends up and, given the depth on this offensive line, it’s possible he winds up getting benched if he struggles to start the season or disappoints in training camp. The Packers also used a 5th round pick on Jacob Monk, a versatile offensive line whose best pro position is likely center, but he’s unlikely to see significant playing time at any position as a rookie, barring multiple injuries. This isn’t an elite offensive line, but it’s not a bad group either and the Packers have a lot of versatile options.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The success the Packers had down the stretch last season actually came in spite of their defense getting worse as the season went on, as their offense improved so much that they were able to cover for the other side of the ball. On offense, the Packers averaged 5.58 yards per play and had a 31.35% first down rate last season and those jump to 5.84 yards per play and a 32.85% first down rate if you more heavily weight their late season games. On defense, the opposite happened as their 5.37 yards per play allowed and 31.16% first down rate allowed jump to 5.54 and 31.51% if you more heavily weight their late season games.

The Packers made a few changes on defense this off-season, but none of those were at the interior defender position, where Kenny Clark (809 snaps), TJ Slaton (627 snaps), Devonte Wyatt (552 snaps), Karl Brooks (379 snaps), and Colby Wooden (256 snaps) were their top-5 last season and all return for 2024. They should all have similar roles this season, though it’s worth noting that all five played all 17 games last season, which is highly unlikely to happen again this season.

Overall, the group was decent, but unspectacular last season. Kenny Clark was the best of the bunch, which has been the case for years, but his 68.8 PFF grade was actually low by his standards, as he surpassed 70 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2017-2021, including two seasons over 80. Clark also had a 66.4 PFF grade in 2022, so it’s possible he’s starting to regress, but he’s still only in his age 29 season, so he could have some bounce back potential. 

Clark’s run defense is what has fallen off the most, but as a pass rusher he still had 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate last season, even better than his career pass rush stats of 34 sacks, 45 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 123 games. He should continue being an effective pass rusher and his run defense has a chance to bounce back. He’s also by far the most experienced of the bunch, now entering his 9th season in the league, after being a first round draft choice in 2016.

Devonte Wyatt also was a much better pass rusher than run stopper in 2023, with a 80.4 PFF grade as a pass rusher and 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate, but just a 46.4 grade against the run. Wyatt was a first round pick in 2022 and flashed some potential in a limited role as a rookie with a 69.9 overall PFF grade on 224 snaps. Now going into his third season in the league, he could take a step forward, though it’s worth noting he was an old rookie and is already in his age 26 season. Either way, he should remain at least the kind of player he was last year, effective as a pass rusher, but a liability against the run.

Wooden and Brooks were also both much better against the pass than against the run, posting run defense grades of 51.6 and 44.5 respectively on PFF, but impressing with pressure rates of 9.6% and 9.8% respectively. Both were rookies, taken in the 4th and 6th round of the 2023 NFL Draft respectively, and both could take a step forward in year two, but neither has a huge upside, so that’s far from a guarantee. Another player on a rookie contract, TJ Slaton was the best of the bunch against the run in 2023, which is to be expected from a big 6-5 330 pounder like him. 

Slaton being the best of the bunch against the run was mostly by default though. A 5th round pick in 2021, Slaton has mostly been a situational run stopper throughout his career, playing more snaps against the run (663) than against the pass (552) in his career and managing just a 4.5% pressure rate for his career. He’s been unspectacular in that situational role, struggling with a 44.2 PFF grade against the run as a rookie and then posting grades of 61.8 and 62.0 over the past two seasons, much better than his rookie year, but still underwhelming. Now in his age 27 season, it’s unlikely Slaton has much untapped upside, so he should remain an underwhelming base package player. Overall, this is a young group that could be better in 2024 than it was in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and they’re unlikely to all remain healthy all season like they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Packers didn’t make any changes at the edge defender position either, with Preston Smith (730 snaps), Rashan Gary (586 snaps), Kingsley Enagbare (453 snaps), and Lukas Van Ness (366 snaps) all returning as their top-4 edge defenders. There could still be differences this season though, as Gary and Van Ness could see more playing time, with Gary going now being another year removed from the torn ACL that ended his 2022 season and Van Ness now going into his second season in the league, after being a first round pick by the Packers in 2023. It’s also worth noting that, like their top interior defenders, none of their top edge defenders missed any time with injury in 2023, which is highly unlikely to happen again this season.

Despite it being his first season back from a major injury, Gary still played at a high level in 2024, posting a 80.0 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate. Gary had a 89.3 PFF grade and a 82.9 PFF grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively while totaling 15.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 17.8% pressure rate across the season and a half before his injury, so it’s possible Gary could be even better in his second season removed from the injury in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. The former first round pick (2019) Gary is also likely to see closer to the 42.4 snaps per game he played in the year and a half before his injury than the 34.5 snaps per game he played in his first season back in 2023. Van Ness, meanwhile, was decent with a 64.0 PFF grade in his limited rookie year action and has the upside to take a big step forward in a bigger role in year two.

If Gary and Van Ness see more playing time, it would likely come at the expense of Preston Smith, who now heads into his age 32 season and could become more of a rotational player as he ages. Smith had a solid season in 2023, receiving a 73.9 overall grade from PFF, playing the run well and adding 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. He’s mostly been a capable starter throughout his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in 8 of 9 seasons in the league, while playing an average of 46.5 snaps per game with just one game missed in his career, but last season was the third best PFF grade of his 9-year career, so it’s unlikely he’ll be as good again in 2024, especially given his age. Still, he should be a useful rotational player, likely in a smaller role than he’s used to.

Kingsley Enagbare should also remain a rotational player, after the 2022 5th round pick has shown decently in that role the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.5 respectively on snap counts of 465 and 453 respectively, holding up against the run and totaling 5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate. Still very young in his age 24 season, it’s possible he could take a step forward in 2024, but even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable rotational player. The Packers probably won’t have the same health at the edge defender position that they had a year ago and Preston Smith’s age is a concern, but Rashan Gary should play more and possibly at a higher level, now another year removed from his ACL tear, while Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness are young players who could take a step forward.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Packers did make a big change at the linebacker position this off-season, parting ways with veteran every down linebacker De’Vondre Campbell as a cap casualty. Campbell was one of the better players in the league at his position in his prime, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade while being limited to 575 snaps in 11 games by injury last season and the Packers saved 10.75 million by cutting him ahead of his age 31 season in 2024, so it’s understandable why they moved on.

The Packers used a second round pick on Edgerrin Cooper as Campbell’s long-term replacement and, without another good option, he’s expected to start and be an every down player right away. He profiles as a long-term starter, but could easily struggle through growing pains in year one. If Cooper doesn’t lock down the job in the off-season, the Packers’ only alternative would be Isaiah McDuffie, who played 511 snaps last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Campbell was out, and struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade. A 6th round pick in 2021, McDuffie didn’t play well in smaller snap counts in his first two seasons in the league either (511 total snaps) and would almost definitely struggle in a season-long starting role.

At the other linebacker spot, the Packers have another young linebacker, 2022 1st round pick Quay Walker. Walker has been disappointing thus far in his career. He struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 846 snaps as a rookie and, while he was better in year two, he was still mediocre, with a 60.0 PFF grade on 848 snaps. He still has a lot of upside and easily could have his best season yet in year three in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee. With an unsettled situation at the other linebacker spot, the Packers need a lot out of Walker. This position group at least has upside with Walker and Cooper both being young, but it easily could be a position of weakness.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Packers also overhauled the safety position this off-season. Rudy Ford (626 snaps), Darnell Savage (558 snaps), and Jonathan Owens (774 snaps) were all decent as their top-3 safeties last season, with PFF grades of 69.9, 66.3, and 61.9 respectively, but all three were let go this off-season. In their place, the Packers gave a big contract to ex-Giant Xavier McKinney, making him the 4th highest paid safety in the league in average annual salary on a 4-year, 67 million dollar deal, and then used draft picks in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th round on Javon Cooper, Evan Williams, and Kitan Oladipo, with Cooper being the heavy favorite to start opposite McKinney, if only by default.

With inexperience at the other starting safety spot, the Packers will need McKinney to live up to his big contract. If he plays anything like he did last season, when he was PFF’s 4th ranked safety with a 87.5 grade, then he will be well worth what the Packers paid for him. McKinney had never been that good in a season before last year, even receiving a 57.8 grade from PFF in 2022, but he also received grades of 70.0 and 75.4 in 2020 and 2021 and he’s still only in his age 25 season, so, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season, he still has a good chance to play at a high level. Durability is a concern, as the 2020 2nd round pick has missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he played in all 17 games last season and in 2021, with all of his missed games coming in 2020 and 2022, so he’s more than capable of making it through a season. He was a good value, even on an expensive contract.

At cornerback, the Packers traded away veteran Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline last year, when the Packers were sellers after their slow start. Douglas’ absence was a big part of the reason why the Packers defense was worse in the second half of last season, succeeding as a team only because their offense was more than able to make up for their defensive decline. The Packers were also without top cornerback Jaire Alexander for much of the second half of last season due to injury, which also contributed to their defensive decline.

The Packers didn’t replace Douglas this off-season, but they should hopefully get more out of Alexander, who was limited to 445 snaps in 7 games, with just two of those games coming after week 9. Alexander had a 70.2 PFF grade when on the field, which was actually the worst single season grade of his 6-year career, as Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in the league at his best. Alexander received a 90.5 grade in 2020 and a 80.3 grade as recently as 2022 and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but the 2018 1st round pick has also missed 28 games with injury in his career, so there’s a good chance he’ll miss more time and/or be limited with injuries again in 2024. Still, the Packers should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023, which will be a boost for a cornerback group that was a big weakness without him and Douglas down the stretch last season.

In the absence of Alexander and Douglas, the Packers were led in cornerbacks snaps last season by Keisean Nixon (808 snaps), Carrington Valentine (694 snaps), and Corey Ballentine (488 snaps), who all struggled, with PFF grades of 59.0, 57.5, and 60.3 respectively. None have much of a history of success either, as Valentine was just a 7th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, while Nixon and Ballentine were career special teamers before being forced into significant action in 2023, playing just 563 defensive snaps and 422 defensive snaps respectively in the first four seasons of their career prior to last season. With no significant additions made to this group this off-season, at least one of those three will have to play a significant role at cornerback this season.

It’s possible two of those three will have to play significant roles again in 2024, but the Packers are at least hoping to get something out of Eric Stokes. Stokes was their first round pick in 2021 and his career got off to a decent start, with a 66.3 PFF grade on 934 rookie year snaps, but injuries have limited him to a 53.7 PFF grade in 477 snaps and a 51.5 PFF grade in 110 snaps over the past two seasons respectively. Stokes is only in his age 25 season and still has upside, but he’s far from a guarantee to stay healthy and, even if he does, he’ll have to earn a role, despite the issues the Packers have at the cornerback position. The Packers have a pair of high level defensive backs in cornerback Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney, but both have significant injury histories and the rest of this group is a big concern.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Packers were the youngest team in the league in 2023 in terms of average age and by a pretty significant margin, but they got significantly better as the season went on and surprisingly made the post-season and won a game, in large part due to the breakout of young quarterback Jordan Love, but also because of other young players improving. Going into 2024, the Packers remain the youngest team in the NFL. They probably won’t be as good as they were down the stretch last season, but they should be better overall than they were a year ago, if you include their slow start to last season.

Update: A tough schedule could prevent the Packers from taking a step forward in win total, but they still look like a playoff team.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC North

Chicago Bears 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

The Bears have had a very interesting team building process over the past several seasons. A common strategy of teams is to draft a quarterback and then surround that quarterback with a lot of veteran talent while he is young and cheap. That strategy usually comes at the expense of future cap space and eventually the quarterback will need to get paid, but the hope is that by the time the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback that the quarterback will be good enough to keep the team competitive even with less around him and, if the quarterback isn’t good enough for that, then the team can rebuild from scratch and start the process over with a new quarterback once their financial situation is improved, likely a quarterback they select with a high draft pick after a down year with a reduced supporting cast.

In 2017, the Bears used the 2nd overall pick on quarterback Mitch Trubisky and got to work on loading up the rest of the roster, especially on defense, led by Khalil Mack, giving up pair of first round picks to acquire him during the 2018 off-season and then promptly making him the highest paid defensive player in the league. The strategy resulted in 12-4 finish in 2018, but the Bears lost in the first round of the playoffs and never found that same success again, finishing 8-8 in each of the next two seasons, as they slowly started to lose key players from their 2018 team and Trubisky did not progress as a quarterback to compensate.

The Bears let Trubisky go as a free agent following his 4th season in the league in 2020, declining his expensive 5th year option, and it seemed like a good time to start to rebuild, with an eye on improving their long-term cap situation and then taking another shot on a young quarterback. Instead, the Bears immediately took another shot on a young quarterback, trading away a future first round pick to move up from 20 to 11 in the 2021 NFL Draft and select Justin Fields. Fields showed promise as a rookie, but the Bears’ supporting cast was still aging and expensive and need in of a rebuild, leading to a 6-11 season. 

The Bears then started that rebuild in a big way the following off-season, shedding expensive, aging veterans and going with cheaper, younger supporting cast around Fields. Fields continued to show some promise in his second season in the league, but had one of the worst supporting casts in the league, leading to the Bears finishing with the worst record in the league at 3-14. That terrible season earned the Bears the #1 pick in the draft, which put the Bears at a crossroads. They could either use the #1 pick on another quarterback and give up on a young quarterback who hadn’t really gotten a fair shot in two years in the league, or they could trade away the pick and try to build around Fields for the future. 

The Bears opted for the second choice, trading the pick to Carolina for a pair of first round picks and a pair of second round picks, as well as wide receiver DJ Moore, giving Fields a #1 wide receiver that he desperately lacked. The Bears then used their new found cap space to sign free agents like linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards and guard Nate Davis, then used the 10th overall pick that they got from Carolina to get Fields some more offensive line help in Darnell Wright, and then in a mid-season trade they made use of their excess second round picks and favorable cap situation to acquire talented edge defender Montez Sweat from the Commanders, a pending free agent who the Bears kept on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal.

The result was a much improved Bears team, especially down the stretch once Sweat was added to the defense, as the Bears finished 7-10, including a 5-3 record in their final 8 games. DVOA was even more favorable to them, as they finished the season 11th in weighted DVOA, which more heavily weighted their second half of the season improvement (22nd in season-long DVOA). However, Fields was still a mixed bag, promising, but not necessarily the long-term solution. Fields completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.92 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 5.30 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 124 carries, resulting in total stats through three seasons in the league of 60.3% completion, 6.97 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions, with 6.24 YPC and 14 rushing touchdowns on 356 carries.

On top of that, the Panthers struggled mightily in their first season with #1 overall pick Bryce Young, in large part due to the absence of DJ Moore, leading to the first round pick the Bears got from Carolina being #1 overall in 2024. The Bears traded down from #1 overall and kept Fields as their quarterback once, but with Fields still not improving drastically despite a better supporting cast and being another year older and another year closer to the end of his cheap rookie deal, as well a stronger quarterback class led by USC’s Caleb Williams, the Bears did not make the same decision this year, trading away Fields and selecting Williams #1 overall.

With Fields only having one cost controlled year left on his contract, the market for Fields was not strong this off-season, leading to the Bears settling for a conditional late round pick in 2025 from the Steelers in exchange for him. Given Bryce Young’s struggles in his first season in Carolina and the fact that the first round pick they acquired from the Panthers ended up being #1 overall, it’s easy to look at their decision to keep Fields another year and trade down as a success, but there’s an alternate reality where the Bears stayed put at #1 in 2023, traded away Fields for a higher return a year earlier, and used that #1 pick on CJ Stroud, who broke out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league immediately as a rookie, after falling to the Texans at #2.

Hindsight is 20/20 and obviously the Bears’ course of action was better than if they had selected Bryce Young #1, but Stroud was a legitimate candidate for the #1 pick and easily could have been the Bears’ choice had they stayed put. If Caleb Williams pans out, no one will remember the Bears could have had Stroud, but if Williams proves to be a bust or disappoints, the Bears’ decision to trade down from #1 pick in 2023 will not look like the slam dunk move it looks like now.

Of course, Williams is one of the best quarterback prospects of the decade and seems a lot more likely to be the answer for the Bears at quarterback than a disappointment. He also, unlike Fields, has more than enough talent around him to succeed, or at least to be properly evaluated from the start. In addition to the players the Bears added last year to improve this roster, the Bears used their accumulated draft picks and financial flexibility to improve their roster further this off-season. With an elite quarterback prospect under center, it’s not hard to see how the Bears could take a big step forward in 2024 and, in the weaker NFC, that could make them one of the top teams in the conference.

Williams doesn’t have a significant injury history, but if he does happen to miss time, he will be replaced by another young quarterback Tyson Bagent. Bagent went undrafted in 2023, but impressed through the off-season to earn the #2 quarterback job behind Fields as a rookie and then saw 4 starts when Fields missed time. He had some positive moments, but ultimately looked like an undrafted rookie, completing 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.01 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. It’s possible he could be better in year two, but he is an underwhelming backup option and would almost definitely be a big drop off from Williams, so the Bears’ hopes of being a playoff team in 2024 depend heavily on Williams staying healthy.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The biggest area the Bears improved this off-season was their receiving corps. DJ Moore was a legitimate #1 wide receiver in his first season in Chicago, finishing with a 96/1364/8 slash line, a 2.31 yards per route run average that ranked 14th in the league among wide receivers, and a 89.3 PFF grade that ranked 9th in the league among wide receivers, but the rest of this wide receiver group was very underwhelming, as Darnell Mooney finished 2nd on the team among wide receivers with a 31/414/1 slash line and a 0.89 yards per route run average, while receiving a 55.2 PFF grade that ranked 92nd out of 102 eligible wide receivers.

Mooney was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and the Bears used some of their cap space to acquire Keenan Allen from the Chargers and then used their own first round pick, 9th overall, on Washington’s Rome Odunze to give them a talented trio of cap catchers. Allen is going into his age 32 season and is owed 23.1 million in the final year of his contract, meaning he could just be an one-year expensive rental and could also disappoint if he declines due to his age, but he only cost the Bears a 4th round pick in terms of draft compensation, they had the financial flexibility to acquire him, and he hasn’t really shown signs of decline yet, finishing the 2023 season with a 108/1243/7 slash in only 13 games, the 5th season of over 1000 yards receiving in the past seven seasons for a player with a career 2.10 yards per route run average (2.36 in 2023). 

It’s possible Allen’s abilities suddenly fall off a cliff given his age and the position he plays. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. However, assuming Allen doesn’t completely drop off, he should be a welcome addition for this team, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past. Odunze, meanwhile, is only a rookie, but he profiles as a future #1 receiver and won’t need to be any higher than the third receiver as a rookie, barring injuries or a major decline from Allen, so he is more than qualified for his role. 

Moore should remain the #1 option, even with Allen and Odunze being added. Still only going into his age 27 season, Moore has surpassed 1100 yards receiving in 4 of the past 5 seasons, despite shaky quarterback play with the Panthers and last year with the Bears. Over that 5-year stretch, which dates back to the 2018 first round pick’s second second in the league, Moore has averaged 2.04 yards per route run and a 84/1198/6 slash line per 17 games, while missing just two games with injury over that stretch. 

Moore is also coming off of a career best year in turns of receiving yardage and PFF grade and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he’s clearly in the prime of his career and should remain one of the better wide receivers in the league. He’ll probably see his target share go down with Allen and Odunze being added, but the 136 targets he had last season were only 16th in the NFL and, even with a smaller target share, he could see a similar number of overall targets on what should be a more pass heavy offense than a year ago (27th in the NFL in pass attempts last season with 513). He also should benefit from having more talented receivers around him taking some of the coverage away from him, as well as from having a better quarterback throwing him the ball.

The Bears also bring back tight end Cole Kmet, who was the de facto #2 receiver on this team last season, finishing with a 73/719/6 slash line, 90 targets, and 1.69 yards per route run, all second on the team behind Moore. It was a career best year for Kmet, who ranked 8th among tight ends with a 73.7 PFF grade in 2023, after a 1.25 combined yards per route run average and PFF grades of 63.4 and 67.6 in 2021 and 2022, but the 2020 2nd round pick is also highly talented and only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to play at that level or even a higher level, even if his overall receiving numbers go down slightly with more mouths to feed at the wide receiver position. He’s more than qualified to be the 3rd or 4th option in a suddenly loaded receiving corps.

The Bears also added veteran tight end Gerald Everett this off-season on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Everett is going into his age 30 season and was an underwhelming starting option with the Seahawks and Chargers over the past three seasons, but he wasn’t a bad starter either, with a 1.29 yards per route run average and 35 starts in 46 games, and he’s more than qualified to be a solid backup and a good insurance policy in case of a Kmet injury. The Bears also brought back blocking specialist Marcedes Lewis. Lewis is going into his age 40 season and has only caught 10 passes over the past two seasons, but he’s still an above average blocker, with a PFF run blocking grade of 73.7 in 2023. He won’t have a big role behind Kmet and Everett, but could still be useful as a role player and veteran leder.

The one concern with their group is depth at wide receiver behind their top-3 options, as they lack a proven backup, but they at least have some recent draft picks with some upside, as Tyler Scott was a 4th round pick in 2023 and Velus Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2022. Both have shown nothing as professionals to this point in their young careers, with career averages of 0.65 yards per route run and 1.02 yards per route run respectively, but both are young and talented enough that I wouldn’t rule out one taking a step forward this season and being an adequate backup option. Overall, this is one of the most complete receiving corps in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Bears also signed running back D’Andre Swift this off-season and he also figures to have a significant role in the passing game. His 39/214/1 slash line and 0.77 yards per route run from 2023 look underwhelming, but he played in an Eagles offense that doesn’t target running backs much in the passing game. In the first three seasons of his career in Detroit, the 2020 2nd round pick averaged a 52/399/2 slash line per 17 games with a 1.53 yards per route run average. 

Swift also averaged 4.62 YPC as a runner in those three seasons in Detroit, but injuries limited him to just 364 carries in 40 games. In his first season in Philadelphia, Swift played all but one game and rushed for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.58 YPC) in the first season of his career as a healthy lead back. Swift’s history of injuries is still a concern and he benefited significantly last season from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, which he won’t be bringing to Chicago with him, but he’s proven to be a solid every down back when healthy and he’s still only going into his age 25 season.

Still, it’s fair to question the need for the Bears to bring Swift in on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal (7th highest average annual value among running backs), even if they had the financial flexibility to do it. Khalil Herbert was their lead running back last season and had a solid 4.63 YPC average on 132 carries. The 2021 6th round pick has never truly carried the load and he has struggled in the passing game with a career 0.73 yards per route run average, but he also has an impressive 4.88 YPC average on 364 carries as a runner in three seasons in the league and at the very least is a solid tandem back. Herbert’s career 3.20 yards per carry after contact significantly exceeds Swift’s 2.53. Swift will work in tandem with Herbert and handle most of the passing game work, but he comes at a steep price for that role. The Bears could have just kept Dont’a Foreman as a tandem back on a much cheaper deal (signed with Cleveland for 1-year, 1.3 million), even though his 2.75 yards per carry after contact in 2023 exceeded Swift’s 2.42.

The Bears also have 2023 4th round pick Roschon Johnson who showed promise as a rookie and who likely would have been that tandem back with Herbert had Swift not been added. Johnson averaged 4.35 YPC on 81 carries as a rookie and also handled the majority of the passing game work, with a 29/209/0 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average. Swift upgrades what is now a suddenly deep backfield, but I’m not sure he improves this team enough to justify his salary, especially given his injury history.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Bears didn’t make any big additions on the offensive line this season, but this was already a solid group, one that had been remade significantly over the past few off-seasons. Left tackle Braxton Jones was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, making 28 starts on the blindside in two seasons in the league and giving the Bears above average play, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, it’s possible the best is yet to come from him and, even if it’s not, he should remain a solid blindside protector in 2024 and beyond.

On the other side, right tackle Darnell Wright was taken 10th overall in 2023 with one of the draft picks the Bears got in their trade with Carolina. He was unspectacular as a rookie with a 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts, but is a very talented player who could easily take a big step forward in year two. Even if he doesn’t improve drastically, I would still expect him to be at least somewhat improved from a year ago, given the amount of promise he came into the league with.

Left guard Teven Jenkins is also a young player, going in the 2nd round in 2021. Jenkins missed most of his rookie season with injury and struggled mightily in the limited action he did see (160 snaps), but he improved drastically (80.7 PFF grade) when he moved from tackle to guard in his second season in the league in 2022, in part due to the position change, in part due to being healthier and more experienced. Jenkins was still limited to 576 snaps by injury in 2022, but he saw more playing time in 2023, with a 72.6 PFF grade on 731 snaps. He’s still yet to make it through a full season without getting hurt, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and has proven his talent. He’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this season, but he also figures to remain an above average starting guard when on the field.

Right guard Nate Davis came to the Bears as a free agent last off-season, signing a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. The ex-Titan had a rough first season in Chicago, missing 6 games and being limited in several others due to injury and personal off-the-field concerns, leading to a disappointing 52.9 PFF grade, but he’s only in his age 28 season and could easily bounce back in 2024. In his final three seasons in Tennessee, he made 42 of a possible 50 starts and had PFF grades of 69.7, 68.8, and 70.6, so if everything is right with him again, he should be at least a solid starting guard, which will be a boost for this offensive line. 

The only addition in this offensive line this off-season was at center, where the Bears surrendered a 5th round pick to the Bills to take on the final 2 years and 8 million of Ryan Bates’ contract. Bates is an underwhelming player, but he comes relatively cheap and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade at center, where Cody Whitehair (45.0 PFF grade) and Lucas Patrick (50.5 PFF grade) were both liabilities last season, making center their biggest position of weakness in 2023. Bates was a backup with the Bills last season, playing just 35 snaps, which is why he was available so inexpensively this off-season, but he made 19 starts in 2021 and 2022 combined (3 at center, 16 at guard) and received adequate grades of 64.3 and 61.8 respectively from PFF, so he should be a capable and versatile starting option, still only in his age 27 season.

The Bears also used a 3rd round pick on Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as the swing tackle over Larry Borom, who had a 48.0 PFF grade in six starts (411 snaps) in 2023. Borom himself could also be better than a year ago, as the 2021 5th round pick was adequate in 17 starts in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.7 respectively, before last year’s down season. Even if Borom keeps the swing tackle job, Amegadjie could still provide value in year one because he has experience at guard as well as tackle.

On the interior, Whitehair and Patrick are gone and Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton were added as veteran reserve options. Pryor played just 42 snaps with the 49ers in 2023, but he saw snap counts of 776, 438, and 576 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively and had his ups and downs, with grades of 55.4, 76.5, and 44.9 respectively from PFF. Of his 24 career starts, 13 have come at tackle, with the other 11 at guard, so he gives the Bears some veteran versatiity at the very least. Shelton, meanwhile, made 2 starts, 13 starts, and 17 starts for the Rams over the past 3 seasons with mediocre, but not horrible results, with PFF grades of 57.7, 58.0, and 64.5 respectively. Shelton is also a versatile reserve option, with 28 starts at center and 4 starts at guard over the past three seasons. 

The Bears hope none of their reserves have to see significant action, but their depth isn’t bad and their starting five has a good chance to be a solid unit. They weren’t terrible a year ago (23rd in both team run blocking and team pass blocking grade on PFF), despite injuries (6 games missed by Davis, 5 games missed by Jenkins, 6 games missed by Jones), and they probably upgraded the center position this off-season, even if only by default, with the addition of Ryan Bates.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bears didn’t add nearly as much on defense this off-season as they did on offense, but their defense was the better side of the ball last season (22nd in offensive DVOA, 17th in defensive DVOA), especially after acquiring Montez Sweat from the Commanders mid-season. Sweat was only with the team for half a year, but lead the team with 6 sacks in 9 games, while also adding 8 hits and a 13.3% pressure rate. Including his time with the Commanders, Sweat finished last season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, a 12.4% pressure rate and a 74.8 overall grade from PFF. 

That’s nothing new for Sweat, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons, while totaling 34.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 60 games over that stretch. Equally reliable as a run stopper as he is as a pass rusher, Sweat was a great addition to this defense, even at a steep price (a 2nd round pick via trade and a 4-year, 98 million dollar extension that makes him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league). Still only in his age 28 season, Sweat is unlikely to drop off in 2024 and having him for a full season will be a significant benefit to this defense.

The rest of this position group is a concern, however. With Sweat only being added mid-season, DeMarcus Walker led this group with 714 snaps played and was pretty underwhelming, totaling 3.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, while struggling against the run and finishing with a 59.1 overall grade from PFF. Without any other major additions at the position this off-season, Walker figures to have a significant role opposite Sweat again in 2024 and he figures to continue struggling. Walker had never played more than 458 snaps in a season prior to last season and has just 23 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 83 games in seven seasons in the league. Now in his age 30 season, it’s highly unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to remain mediocre at best.

Rasheem Green (385 snaps) and Yannick Ngakoue (592 snaps) also struggled in significant roles last season and, while neither was retained this off-season, the Bears other edge defender options for 2024 aren’t any better. Dominique Robinson is their top returning reserve at the position and he was arguably the worst of the bunch, with a 35.3 PFF grade on 242 snaps and a pitiful 3.2% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2022, Robinson also struggled with a 5.3% pressure rate and a 45.9 PFF grade on 549 snaps as a rookie and, even if he happens to be better in year three, he still figures to be a liability in a significant reserve role.

Austin Booker and Jacob Martin were added to the mix this off-season, but not much should be expected out of either, with Booker being a 5th round rookie and Martin being a career journeyman reserve who was signed to a contract of just 1-year, 1.3 million. Martin played just 192 snaps for the Colts last season, his 3rd team in the past two seasons, and has only played more than 400 snaps in a season once in six seasons in the league, while consistently receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF. Montez Sweat was a much needed addition to this group mid-season last year and having him for the full season in 2024 will be a boost to this defense, but the rest of this group is still a big concern.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender spot for the Bears in 2024. Justin Jones (740 snaps), Andrew Billings (506 snaps), Gervin Dexter (433 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (264 snaps) all saw significant action at the position last season. None of them missed any time with injury last season, which is unlikely to happen again, and Jones, who led the group in snaps played last season, left this off-season and wasn’t replaced, but Jones struggled mightily with a 49.3 PFF grade, so his absence might be addition by subtraction and both Dexter and Pickens were rookies last season who could step up in bigger roles in year two in 2024. They were mediocre with PFF grades of 50.9 and 54.9 respectively as rookies, but they were also drafted in the second and third round respectively and have the upside to take a step forward in their second year in the NFL.

Billings was the best of the bunch in 2023, finishing with a 66.3 PFF grade. He’s normally been a solid starter when healthy in his career, posting grades of 71.1, 69.3, and 76.4 on snap counts of 632, 657, and 478 respectively, with injuries limiting him to 72 snaps total in 2020 and 2021. His injury history is somewhat concerning, but aside from that 2-year stretch, he’s only missed three games in his last four healthy seasons, so he’s not necessarily an injury prone player. Still only in his age 29 season, Billings should remain a solid starter in 2024, as long as he can avoid any unexpected major injuries. This group is still thin behind Billings and the two second year players, but they could still add decent depth at this point in the off-season and it’s not a bad position group, especially if one or both of the young players can take a step forward in year two.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Bears didn’t make any additions at the linebacker position this off-season, but they overhauled the group in a big way last off-season, giving big contracts to Tremaine Edmunds (4 years, 72 million) and TJ Edwards (3 years, 19.5 million) as part of their off-season spending spree. Edwards was the cheaper of the two, but was by far the better of the two in his first season in Chicago, ranking 14th among off ball linebackers with a 79.6 PFF grade on 1,042 snaps, while Edmunds disappointed with a 56.6 PFF grade on 876 snaps.

Despite the contracts they got, neither of those results was a surprise. Edwards was a steal in free agency, having received grades of 76.3 and 84.8 from PFF on snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before joining the Bears. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a couple years to become a starter, but he always flashed potential dating back to his rookie season and has developed into one of the most consistently good off ball linebackers in the league.

Edmunds, meanwhile, had a dominant final season in Buffalo with a 79.0 PFF grade on 760 snaps, leading to the Bears giving the 2018 first round pick that massive contract, but he had been inconsistent throughout his time with the Bills, receiving grades lower than 60 from PFF in three of five seasons. He’s always produced impressive tackle totals, but aside from his contract season in Buffalo, he has also always consistently missed a lot of tackles and has consistently struggled in coverage. 

Still only going into his age 26 season, Edmunds does have some bounce back potential, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever be consistently good enough to justify a contract that makes him the 3rd highest paid off ball linebacker in the league in terms of average annual salary. Fortunately, the Bears have Edwards, who should remain one of the better players in the league at the position and a steal at his current salary. Together, Edwards and Edmunds are a linebacker duo that is better than most around the league.

The Bears also have good depth at the linebacker position. Jack Sanborn went undrafted in 2022, but has shown potential in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 67.3 on snap counts of 330 and 412 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He’s best as a part-time player, primarily playing run defense in base packages, but he could also fill in for a few games as an every down linebacker as well. On top of that, 2023 5th round pick Noah Sewell flashed potential as a rookie, albeit on only 27 snaps. He’s inexperienced, but you could do a lot worse than him as a 4th linebacker who will probably only see significant action if there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is an above average position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Bears have some talented players on this defense like Montez Sweat and TJ Edwards, but their best defensive player in 2023 was cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who led all cornerbacks in the league with a 90.8 PFF grade, while allowing a ridiculous 33.3 QB rating on passes into his coverage and just 195 yards receiving allowed on 530 coverage snaps. Johnson had never had a season nearly that good before, as the 2020 2nd round pick received grades of 54.9, 64.2, and 62.9 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and the Bears rightfully locked him up long-term after his dominant 2023 campaign, giving him a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal that makes him the 7th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He might not be quite as good again in 2024, in part because it’s really hard to be that good two years in a row and in part because he’s never been close to that good before, but I wouldn’t expect him to regress to his pre-2023 form and he’s obviously one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

The rest of the Bears’ cornerbacks aren’t nearly as good, but at least they have some promising young players with upside. Kyler Gordon was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and, after a disappointing rookie season in which he received a 49.8 PFF grade across 863 snaps, he took a big step forward in year two, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 646 snaps. Gordon might not necessarily be better in year three than he was in year two, but it’s unlikely he’ll regress back to his rookie year form and he could easily take another step forward. Tyrique Stevenson is also a recent second round pick, selected in 2023, and, unlike Gordon, he didn’t relly struggle as a rookie, with a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps. He should remain at least a capable starting cornerback in 2024 and, like Gordon, also has the upside to take a step forward in 2024. 

Behind their top-3 on the depth chart, the Bears also have Terell Smith, who was only a 5th round pick in 2023, but who wasn’t bad with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie. He could struggle if forced into a bigger role, but, barring injury, he won’t open the season any higher than 4th on the depth chart and he’s a promising prospect and good depth to have. #5 cornerback Jaylon Jones is also young and, while the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 48.4 PFF grade on 466 snaps as a rookie, he was better with a 61.8 PFF grade on 148 snaps in year two. He also could struggle if forced into significant action again, but he would need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for that to happen and you could do a lot worse than him as your 5th cornerback, especially given that he’s young and could continue improving.

The only big addition to this defense this off-season was safety Kevin Byard, who signed on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Byard is going into his age 31 season and his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he should still prove to be an upgrade at safety over departed veteran Eddie Jackson, who finished last season with a 58.6 PFF grade in 12 starts. Even at less than his prime form, Byard still had a 74.0 PFF grade last season and the fact that last season was his 2nd worst PFF grade of the past seven seasons is a testament to how consistently good Byard was in his prime, receiving a 90.2 PFF grade as recently as 2021. He is highly unlikely to be that good in 2024, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and, even if he continues declining, there’s a good chance he remains at least an above average starter. He’s also been very durable throughout his career, never once missing a game due to injury. He has a good chance to be a good value on a relatively inexpensive contract.

JaQuan Brisker remains as the other starting safety. Another young player in this secondary, Brisker was selected in the second round in 2022 and has been a solid starter thus far in his career, making 30 total starts in two seasons in the league and receiving grades from PFF of 67.0 and 66.7 respectively. Now in his third season in the league, he should continue at least being solid and he has the upside to take a step forward and have the best year of his career thus far.

The Bears also added veteran Jonathan Owens in free agency to give them a better third safety, after Elijah Hicks struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade on 487 snaps in that role in 2023. A relatively old player compared to much of this secondary in his age 29 season, Owens had mixed results as a starter with the Texans and Packers over the past two seasons, receiving a 48.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and a 61.9 PFF grade on 774 snaps in 2023, but he’s not a bad third safety option. 

Hicks, meanwhile, will be the 4th safety and is not a bad fit for that role. Hicks was better on 168 snaps as a rookie, with a 63.2 PFF grade, and the 2022 7th round pick is still relatively young and could have some untapped upside. Top cornerback Jaylon Johnson might not be quite as good as he was a year ago, but the arrow is pointing up for the rest of this secondary, because of the potential of their young talent, as well as the upgrade that free agent addition Kevin Byard should provide over Eddie Jackson.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

If the Bears played as good all last season as they did down the stretch last season after their defense added Montez Sweat, they could have qualified for the post-season or at least come close in the weak NFC. This off-season, they added even more talent to this roster and almost definitely got a quarterback upgrade with Caleb Williams. With the NFC still being weak, I would expect this team to at least make the post-season, barring significant injuries, and if Williams can have a big rookie year, this team has enough talent around him to be contenders right away.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC North

2024 NFL Mock Draft (Final)

stevenlourie Uncategorized
  1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)*
  2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)*
  3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)*
  4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)*
  5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
  6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)*
  7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)*
  8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)*
  9. Chicago Bears – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)*
  10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
  11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT JC Latham (Alabama)
  12. Denver Broncos – QB Michael Penix (Washington)*
  13. Las Vegas Raiders – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)
  14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
  15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
  16. Seattle Seahawks – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
  18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
  19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
  21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
  22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
  23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
  24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
  25. Green Bay Packers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
  26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)
  27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
  28. Buffalo Bills – WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
  29. Detroit Lions – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
  30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
  31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)
  32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

2024 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Updated: 3/27/24

Next update: Early-to-mid April

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Caleb Williams has been locked into this spot for months. The only question has been whether the Bears would trade this pick for a king’s ransom or use it themselves, but the most likely option was always keeping the pick and that was confirmed when the Bears traded incumbent quarterback Justin Fields to the Steelers for a conditional draft pick in 2025, freeing up their starting quarterback spot for Williams.

2. Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

In a way, this is where the draft really begins, with Williams to the Bears at #1 being a lock. The Commanders will almost definitely be using this pick on a quarterback, with veteran journeyman backup Marcus Mariota being the only quarterback of note on their roster, following the trade of incumbent starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks. Which quarterback that will be is not as clear, with strong cases to be made for both Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and even JJ McCarthy. I could see any of three going here, but rumors are that the Commanders’ new front office loves the high upside Maye over the more polished Daniels, with McCarthy as the wild card option.

3. New England Patriots – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

The Patriots could use this pick on Marvin Harrison, a generational wide receiver prospect, after striking out on wide receivers in free agency, or they could trade down and accumulate multiple picks to address their many needs, but I still think it’s most likely that they take one of the quarterbacks that Washington doesn’t. A franchise quarterback is still the most valuable asset in the NFL and opportunities to pick high in a strong quarterback draft don’t come every year.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

Arizona is in a good spot as the highest drafting team that doesn’t need a quarterback. They could trade down here with a team that needs a quarterback and accumulate more picks, or they could take the consensus best non-quarterback in the draft in Marvin Harrison, who would fill a huge need at wide receiver. A trade is a possibility, but the price will probably be steep because of the opportunity cost of not getting Harrison and the Cardinals already have another pick in the first round, so I think it’s more likely that they just stay put and take Harrison.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)

The Chargers are also in a good spot at 5, not needing a quarterback, because they can either take Harrison if the Cardinals trade down with a quarterback needy team or they can be the ones to trade down for multiple picks if the Cardinals opt to take Harrison. In this scenario, the Cardinals take Harrison and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings, who acquired another first round pick (23) in a trade with the Texans and, as a result, can present the best package to move up. The Vikings are desperate for a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins and replacing him with Sam Darnold and they reportedly love JJ McCarthy, who is a likely top-10, if not top-5 pick, depending on trades. A package of their original first round pick at 11, the Texans’ pick at 23, and a later pick in 2025 should be enough to get this done and it would make a lot of sense for the Chargers, who don’t need a quarterback, but have multiple pressing needs.

6. New York Giants – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

The Giants could take JJ McCarthy here if he’s available, with Daniel Jones likely to be released at the end of next season when his guaranteed money is up, but Minnesota moved up ahead of them to grab McCarthy, so the Giants will have to address another position. Fortunately, they do have many other pressing needs, including wide receiver, where the Giants lack a #1 option or even a good #2. Malik Nabers is an option to be the second wide receiver off the board behind Harrison, but I think Odunze is a little bit ahead of him right now. He’d give Daniel Jones the true #1 option he’s never really had and, in the likely scenario that the Giants decide to move on from Jones in a year when his guaranteed money is up, Odunze will make life easier for whoever their next quarterback happens to be.

7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

The Titans are another team with a ton of needs, but their biggest one is offensive line and fortunately this is a very strong offensive line class. The Titans used a first round pick on Peter Skoronski in last year’s draft, but aside from free agent acquisition center Lloyd Cushenberry, Skoronski is the only player locked into a starting job on their offensive line in 2024 and he’s probably a guard long-term. Even if Skoronski ends up being a tackle long-term, the Titans need a bookend for him and Alt, who is probably the top tackle prospect in this draft, is a great value here at 7.

8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

The Falcons are likely to focus on defense here, after addressing their biggest offensive needs of quarterback and wide receiver in free agency with Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney. This is a weak defensive draft at the top compared to the elite offensive prospects in this draft, but the Falcons should have their choice of defenders at 8 and this would be a good spot for the first defensive player to come off the board. Edge defender Dallas Turner is a strong option and would add to this team’s pass rush, but cornerback is a slightly bigger need in my opinion and Quinyon Mitchell is a similar caliber prospect as Turner.

9. Chicago Bears – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

The Bears traded for Keenan Allen to give them another option at wide receiver opposite DJ Moore, but the Bears only gave up a 4th round pick in that trade and Allen is going into his age 32 season and a contract year, so that trade doesn’t preclude the Bears from taking a wide receiver at 9. Nabers would give them a needed third wide receiver in the short-term and a long-term bookend for DJ Moore. Teams normally take a complementary offensive player with their next pick after taking a first round quarterback and Nabers would be their best option, given that the Bears do have an intriguing young offensive line already.

10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Offensive tackle was the Jets’ biggest need coming into this off-season, but they addressed it with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who will start on the left and right side respectively in 2024. They’ll also be in their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, so the Jets could still take a tackle of the future here and plug him in at guard in the meantime, but the Jets also signed John Simpson to a sizeable contract in free agency to be their other guard opposite Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is probably their best returning offensive lineman, so guard isn’t really a need and, on top of that, the Jets are in win now mode with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who is heading into his age 41 season, so they’ll probably use this pick in a way that best maximizes their chances of winning in 2024. With that in mind, Brock Bowers makes a lot of sense as an elite tight end prospect who can fill an immediate need and contribute in a big way right away.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Chargers’ trade down works out well as they can get a player at 11 who would have been in consideration at 5. If the Chargers stay put at 5, a wide receiver Like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers would be a strong possibility and if they stay put at 5 and take a tackle Joe Alt is more likely than Fashanu, but Fashanu would at least be in consideration and, with the other three aforementioned players off the board here at 11, this becomes an easy choice for the Chargers, who have a pressing need at right tackle that Fashanu can fill right away. The Chargers would then target a wide receiver or address one of their many defensive needs with their second pick in the first round at 23.

12. Denver Broncos – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)

The Broncos are another team that will attempt to move up for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham currently penciled in as their starter, but they don’t have the multiple 2024 first round picks the Vikings have and they might not want to trade away multiple future high draft picks after all of the high draft picks they gave away for Russell Wilson, so the most likely scenario is they stay put at 12, miss out on one of the top-4 quarterback prospects, and address the position on day 2. At 12, Dallas Turner would be a strong option because he could be argued as the best available player and would fill a need at the edge defender position for a team who ranked just 23rd on PFF in team pass rush grade in 2023.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

This pick stays the same from my pre-free agency mock draft, as cornerback was one of the Raiders’ biggest needs going into free agency and went unaddressed, with mediocre incumbent starter Amik Robertson signing with the Lions. Arnold would provide a starting caliber cornerback for a team that doesn’t really have one outside of Nate Hobbs.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Trevor Penning was the Saints’ first round pick in 2022, but he’s largely been a bust in two years in the league, making just 6 starts thus far in his career due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. The Saints might give him one more shot at the left tackle job in 2024, but they at least need a good alternative at the position and Fautanu can give them that, while also giving them a starting option at guard, where James Hurst is a mediocre option in his age 33 season.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

The Colts re-signed Kenny Moore in free agency and have 2023 2nd round pick JuJu Brents, but they need a third cornerback to go with them. Nate Wiggins makes sense here for a team that doesn’t have a lot of other pressing needs. He’ll probably be the third cornerback off the board behind Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, but he still has a good chance to be drafted in the teens.

16. Seattle Seahawks – OT JC Latham (Alabama)

The Seahawks’ offensive line struggled last season with both offensive tackle Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas missing time with injury and their replacement options struggling in their absence. Latham would give them a better insurance policy and could also play guard for a team that needs to replace Damien Lewis, who signed with the Panthers this off-season as a free agent.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)

Jared Verse is a bit of a luxury pick for the Jaguars who don’t have any pressing needs that line up with the best players available at this point in the draft. Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had double digit sack seasons at the edge defender position last year, but their depth behind them is really lacking and Verse is a great value at 17. Allen is also on the franchise tag and has yet to be signed long-term.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

Wide receiver might not seem like a big need for the Bengals, but they’re unlikely to re-sign Tyler Boyd in free agency this off-season, while the franchise tagged Tee Higgins might not be kept beyond this next season, with the Bengals’ cap situation getting tougher in the next few years with extensions for Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase due. Thomas would give them a long-term receiving option opposite Chase and it doesn’t hurt that he also went to LSU, where Burrow and Chase both did.

19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

It’s weird seeing the Rams finally picking in the first round again. Trading down and accumulating multiple picks is a strong possibility, given how good they’ve been at finding gems in the mid-rounds, but if they stay put, Laiatu Latu would make a lot of sense, as the Rams need to get better at the edge defender position. Michael Hoecht started 17 games there in 2023, but struggled playing out of position and was tendered at the lowest level as a restricted free agent this off-season, which likely means the Rams don’t view him as a long-term starter opposite 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young, one of those mid-round gems, who showed a lot of promise in year one.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

The Steelers used their first round pick on Broderick Jones in last year’s draft, but they need a long-term bookend for him, with incumbent starting left tackle Dan Moore being a mediocre option who now heads into the final year of his contract. The Steelers could take advantage of a strong offensive tackle class and use their first round pick on that position in back-to-back years.

21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Dolphins probably wanted to keep Christian Wilkins, but for financial reasons they couldn’t franchise tag him or match the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he got from the Raiders in free agency. They could opt to replace him in the draft and Byron Murphy would be a good fit for them with the 21st pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Darius Slay and James Bradberry were one of the best cornerback duos in the league during the Eagles run to the Super Bowl in 2022, but both took a big step back in 2023 and now they head into their age 33 and age 31 seasons respectively, so the Eagles will likely look at young cornerbacks early in the draft. DeJean can play the slot and/or safety while Slay and Bradberry remain on the roster as outside cornerbacks and DeJean the potential to be a long-term option on the outside as well.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

With the Chargers parting ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for financial reasons this off-season, wide receiver becomes a huge position of need for them. Last year’s first round pick Quentin Johnston has been a bust thus far and, even if he turns it around, the Chargers still don’t have much at the wide receiver position behind him. The Chargers will consider wide receivers with the 5th pick and if they move down to accumulate more picks, expect them to use at least one of their early picks on the position.

24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

The Cowboys still don’t have a good #2 wide receiver opposite Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was brought in last off-season, but he disappointed and now heads into his age 31 contract year. On top of that, fellow wide receiver Michael Gallup was also cut this off-season, rather than being paid 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed on a contract that he signed when he was a much better player before his ACL tear. The Cowboys will likely address this position early in the draft. Mitchell would likely start as the #3 receiver behind Lamb and Cooks, but would give them a long-term complement for Lamb that they currently lack.

25. Green Bay Packers – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

It wasn’t a surprise the Packers cut David Bakhtiari, who was owed 20.9 million in his age 33 season in 2024 and had played just 13 games in the past 3 seasons due to knee problems, but the Packers also let Yosh Nijman leave in free agency and he was their primary fill-in for Bakhtiari over the past few seasons, so the Packers are pretty thin at the tackle position now. Rasheed Walker is currently penciled into the left tackle job, but he’s better off as a swing tackle. This is a position they could address in the first round of a strong offensive tackle class.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Buccaneers made the aging Shaq Barrett a cap casualty this off-season and now need help at the edge defender position. Yaya Diaby and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka are young players with some promise, but the Buccaneers could add another blue chip prospect to the mix in the first round of the draft.

27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)

Going into the off-season, the Cardinals didn’t have any starting caliber cornerbacks. They added Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency, but he’s a very underwhelming option as a de facto #1 cornerback and they don’t have much behind him on the depth chart, so expect them to address this position relatively early in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills – ED Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Veteran edge defenders Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson weren’t brought back this off-season. AJ Epenesa was re-signed and, along with Greg Rousseau, those two younger players will likely play bigger roles in 2024, but the Bills can’t count on their depth behind them, with their only real option being Von Miller, who is now going into his age 35 season and didn’t look nearly the same as usual in 2023 after another major injury. The Bills will probably add an edge defender early in the draft.

29. Detroit Lions – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

The Lions had to cut starting cornerback Cameron Sutton because of off-the-field problems, leaving them with a need at the position. The Lions fortunately acquired Carlton Davis from the Buccaneers via trade and Amik Robertson as a free agent, but Robertson is a mediocre option who didn’t get a big contract and, even if he locks down a starting job, the Lions could still use another, with Brian Branch potentially moving full-time to safety in 2023 in the absence of Tracy Walker and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who both left the team this off-season.

30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Ravens re-signed Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce this off-season, but still could use an upgrade at the third spot on their 3-man base defensive line, with the mediocre Brent Urban penciled into that spot for what would be his age 33 season in 2024. Newton would give them that upgrade while also having the ability to play all three downs inside next to Madubuike.

31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)

The 49ers could use some young offensive line help with three of their projected five starting offensive linemen for 2024 being on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Trent Williams going into his age 36 season and center Jake Brendel and guard Jon Feliciano both going into their age 32 seasons. Graham Barton has the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and would be a good fit for the 49ers zone blocking scheme.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl this season, but their offense struggled by its normal standards because of issues in the receiving corps and on the offensive line. The Chiefs addressed their receiving corps in free agency with Marquise Brown and have a promising young receiver in Rashee Rice going into his second season in the league in 2024, so the tackle position is probably a bigger need for them now, with inexperienced 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris being an underwhelming option to replace veteran Donovan Smith on the blindside and highly paid right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggling mightily in his first season in Kansas City. Tyler Guyton could help right away at either spot.

2019 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)

    A lot of teams would take Nick Bosa or one of the other elite non-quarterbacks in this draft class, but a rule I use in these redrafts is that a team will usually stick with their original pick if it’s someone they paid big money on a long-term extension and the Cardinals gave Murray a 5-year, 230.5 million dollar extension that tops any other extension received by a player in this draft class. Another rule I use is that a franchise quarterback tops anything else and, while Murray has had his injuries and his ups and downs, the Cardinals still view him as a franchise quarterback, opting to keep him despite hefty salaries and back-to-back top-4 draft picks in the past two years. 

    In total, Murray has completed 66.6% of his passes for 6.99 YPA, 94 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in 65 career starts, while rushing for 5.76 YPC and 26 touchdowns on 425 carries and finishing over 70 on PFF in three times and over 80 twice in 5 seasons in the league. The Cardinals haven’t had a ton of team success with him (28-36-1 in his starts), but he usually hasn’t been the main problem for this team in their losses.

    2. San Francisco 49ers – DE Nick Bosa (Ohio State)

      The 49ers have to be ecstatic that the Cardinals chose to stick with Kyler Murray, allowing them to keep Nick Bosa. Bosa’s 5-year, 170 million dollar extension is well behind Murray’s, but it still makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league as of this writing. The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Bosa has totaled 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, while surpassing 89 on PFF in every full season of his career. A 2020 season ended by a torn ACL after 68 snaps is the only negative on his resume, but he’s clearly overcome that and, not even 27 until October, he looks likely to remain one of the best defensive players in the league for years to come.

      3. New York Jets – DT Quinnen Williams (Alabama)

        Here’s another team sticking with their original pick. Quinnen Williams isn’t quite on the level of Nick Bosa, but he’s developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league and was kept by the Jets on a 4-year, 96 million dollar extension. Also a good run defender, Williams has totaled 33 sacks, 44 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 75 career games, very impressive for an interior pass rusher, and he’s especially come into his own the past two seasons, surpassing 90 overall on PFF in both seasons, with 17.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 33 games. Not 27 until December, Williams should remain an All-Pro caliber interior defender for the next few years.

        4. Oakland Raiders – DE Maxx Crosby (Eastern Michigan)

          The Raiders whiffed badly on their original pick here, taking Clelin Ferrell, who totaled just 10 sacks in 58 games with the Raiders and had his 5th year option declined, before signing with the 49ers on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal last off-season. However, the Raiders made up for it by using a 4th round pick in this draft on Maxx Crosby, who has developed into one of the best edge defenders in the league and who was kept by the Raiders on a 4-year, 94 million dollar extension. In this redraft, the Raiders will have to take him 4th overall to keep him, but I don’t think they’ll mind, given how badly they messed up this pick originally. Crosby isn’t quite on Bosa’s level, but he’s still totaled 52 sacks, 76 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate in 83 career games, especially dominating over the past three seasons, with grades above 90 overall in all three seasons and a total of 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 51 games.

          5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Josh Allen (Kentucky)

            The Buccaneers signed Shaq Barrett in the 2019 off-season and paired him with Jason Pierre-Paul, but Pierre-Paul was in his age 30 season and on the decline in 2019 and two years later the Buccaneers used a first round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Joe Tyron-Shoyinka, who hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Instead, the Buccaneers use the 5th pick in this draft to give themselves a very talented trio of edge defenders in the short-term and a dominant edge defender in the long-term, with Allen developing into one of the best players in the league at his position. 

            Allen has never been bad, but he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being selected 7th overall by Jacksonville in 2019, from 68.4 as a rookie to 89.5 in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023, setting him up for a probable franchise tag from the Jaguars this off-season and ultimately a massive contract that will likely make him among the highest paid defensive players in the league.

            6. New York Giants – DT Dexter Lawrence (Clemson)

              The Giants originally used this pick on quarterback Daniel Jones, who they re-signed on a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal last off-season, but that was after they declined his 5th year option and the Giants already seem to be regretting that extension, as they are reportedly interested in quarterbacks with their 6th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, or even potentially moving up for a quarterback, despite Jones’ 36 million dollar salary for 2024 being fully guaranteed. Jones has been an effective runner, with a 5.77 YPC and 13 touchdowns on 332 career carries and the problems with the Giants passing game haven’t all been his fault, but his 85.2 QB rating is not what you’d expect out of a quarterback taken 6th overall and he’s also had a lot of injury problems, missing 23 games total and at least three games in four of five seasons in the league.

              Instead, the Giants use this pick on Dexter Lawrence, who they originally took 17th and extended on a 4-year, 87.5 million dollar extension that rightfully makes him one of the highest paid interior defenders in the league. Also a dominant run stuffer, Lawrence has totaled 21 sacks, 61 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate in 80 career games, while surpassing 75 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, especially dominating over the past two seasons, with 92.0 and 92.9 overall grades from PFF and 12 sacks, 39 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 32 games. He wouldn’t last until 17 in a redraft so the Giants have to take him here to keep him.

              7. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR AJ Brown (Mississippi)

                The Jaguars lose out on their original pick Josh Allen in this redraft, as he went two picks earlier to Tampa Bay, but the Jaguars still have plenty of good players to choose from here. They could take another defensive lineman from this talented defensive line class, but this wide receiver class is almost as good and the Jaguars can address a big need by taking the first wide receiver off the board. The 2018 Jaguars were led in receiving by Dede Westbrook, who finished with just a 66/717/5 slash line and, while DJ Chark led the Jaguars with a 73/1008/8 slash line in 2019, he never came close to those numbers again.

                Brown, meanwhile, has averaged a 84/1313/9 slash line per 17 games in his career, including 88/1496/11 in 2022 and 106/1456/7 in 2023 and he’s been even better than those totals suggest, as he’s consistently played on run heavy offenses, meaning his receiving totals would likely be even higher on teams that pass the ball more often. His career 2.58 yards per route run average and 9.94 yards per target average are among the best in the league since he was drafted and he’s ranked 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, and 9th in yards per route run among wide receivers in his five seasons in the league.

                8. Detroit Lions – DE Rashan Gary (Michigan)

                  The Lions could also take a wide receiver here, with 2019 leading receiver Kenny Golladay totaling a 65/1190/11 slash line, but never coming close to those numbers again, but defense has been more of a consistent problem for the Lions in recent years than offense, so instead they focus on that side of the ball and take yet another of the talented defensive linemen in this class. The 2018 Lions didn’t have anyone with more than 7.5 sacks and tried to remedy that by giving a big contract to Trey Flowers, who took home 56 million over three seasons, but only gave the Lions 10.5 sacks in 27 games.

                  Gary took a couple years to come into his own and had his 2022 season ended by a torn ACL, but at his best he’s been as good as any of the defensive linemen taken ahead of him. Since becoming a starter in his third season in the league in 2021, Gary has totaled 24.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate in 42 games, while surpassing 80 on PFF in all three seasons, despite his major knee injury. Not even 27 until December, Gary should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come.

                  9. Buffalo Bills – WR Deebo Samuel (South Carolina)

                    The Bills original pick here was Ed Oliver, an interior defender who they extended on a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal, but they can shoot a little higher here in a redraft. The Bills added to their receiving corps in a big way the year after this draft by trading for Stefon Diggs, but Deebo Samuel would give them help in the receiving corps a year earlier and would give them a good complement for Diggs, making this one of the best receiving corps in the league. Injuries have been a concern for Deebo Samuel throughout his career, costing him 17 games total, but he’s averaged a 73/1062/5 slash line per 17 games with 2.29 yards per route run and 9.61 yards per target, while also adding 6.29 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 160 career carries. He would make Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense even more dangerous.

                    10. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR DK Metcalf (Mississippi)

                      The 2018 Steelers had a pair of 1000+ yard receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Brown was traded after the season and Smith-Schuster never topped 1000 yards in a season again. The Steelers replaced Brown with Diontae Johnson in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft and he’s been a solid wide receiver for them, but they could shoot higher in the first round with DK Metcalf, who has averaged 77/1105/9 per 17 games, 8.63 yards per target, and 1.91 yards per route run in his career. Johnson, for comparison, has averaged 85/951/5 per 17 games, 6.83 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run.

                      11. Cincinnati Bengals – G Chris Lindstrom (Boston College)

                        The Bengals were right to try to upgrade their offensive line with this pick, but their original choice Jonah Williams didn’t prove to be worth this selection, missing his entire rookie season with injury, never reaching an elite level, losing his left tackle job to free agent acquisition Orlando Brown last off-season, and potentially being allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season, after a mediocre season at right tackle in 2023. Instead, the Bengals take Chris Lindstrom, who has developed into one of the best guards in the league. Originally taken 14th by the Falcons, Lindstrom took a couple years to develop into the player he is now, but still had PFF grades of 66.6 and 77.1 in his first two seasons in the league and he’s received grades of 83.7, 95.0, and 87.6 over the past three seasons. He would be a big help for a Bengals team that has consistently had offensive line problems in recent years.

                        12. Green Bay Packers – DT Jeffery Simmons (Mississippi State)

                          The Packers miss out on their original pick Rashan Gary, who was selected a few picks earlier by the Lions, but they can still get a great defensive lineman at this point in the draft. Simmons is an interior defender, unlike Gary who was an edge player, but interior defender was arguably a bigger need at that point, as Gary sat behind Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith for most of his first two seasons in the league, while Simmons could have quickly beaten out Dean Lowry for a starting role on the interior. 

                          Simmons fell to the Titans at 19 originally, but that was because he tore his ACL in the pre-draft process. He was limited to 315 snaps in 9 games as a rookie because of his injury, but flashed his potential immediately with a 70.4 PFF grade in that limited action and has since developed into one of the better interior defenders in the league, while staying mostly healthy. In 68 career games, he has 26.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate while playing high level run defense, leading to four seasons over 70 overall and two seasons over 80 overall on PFF.

                          13. Miami Dolphins – DE Brian Burns (Florida State)

                            I thought about giving the Dolphins their original pick Christian Wilkins, who has developed into an above average interior defender, but the Dolphins are reportedly not going to franchise tag him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season and ultimately they can aim a little higher in a redo. The 2019 Dolphins were one of the worst teams in the league and needed help at almost every position and Burns is probably the best player remaining on the board. 

                            Run defense has been a weakness for Burns, which drops him out of the top-10, but he’s been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league over the past five seasons, totaling 46 sacks, 56 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 80 career games. The team that originally drafted him 16th, the Carolina Panthers, is expected to franchise tag and extend him this off-season on a contract that makes him one of the highest paid edge defenders in the league, unlike the Dolphins with Wilkins.

                            14. Atlanta Falcons – DE Montez Sweat (Mississippi State)

                              It feels like I give the Falcons an edge defender in these redrafts every year, but it has been one of their biggest needs as long as I can remember. The Falcons had 42 sacks in 2023, but that was their first season of at least 40 sacks since all the way back in 2004. Fortunately, there are still good defensive linemen on the board in one of the best defensive line drafts in history. Montez Sweat, originally the 26th overall pick by Washington, is a better run defender than pass rusher, but also has 34.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 60 games over the past four seasons.

                              15. Washington Redskins – WR Terry McLaurin (Ohio State)

                                Washington’s original pick here, quarterback Dwayne Haskins (RIP), did not pan out, struggling in 13 starts in just two seasons with the team, before being released. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin was originally a third round pick by Washington in this draft, but he turned out to be the far better player and would need to be taken in the first round in a redraft if Washington wants to keep him, which they likely would, given that they extended him on a 3-year, 68.364 million dollar deal. He’s not the top level receiver some players in this draft are, but he’s still surpassed 1000 yards receiving in four straight seasons, despite poor quarterback play, and he’s averaged a 80/1123/5 slash line per 17 games in his career, with an average of 1.85 yards per route run and 8.67 yards per target. 

                                16. Carolina Panthers – TE TJ Hockenson (Iowa)

                                  TJ Hockenson was originally the 8th overall pick by the Lions in this draft. He hasn’t quite played well enough to justify going that high again, but he’s still developed into one of the better tight ends in the league. He took a few years to reach that level, putting up slash lines of 32/367/2, 67/723/6, and 61/583/4 in his first three seasons in the league, but that has increased to 86/914/6 in 2022 and 95/960/5 in 2023. 

                                  Hockenson’s 2023 season ended with a torn ACL that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and has a good chance to ultimately bounce back to form and continue being one of the top tight ends in the league. The Panthers still had Greg Olsen in the 2019 off-season, but 2019 was his age 34 season and his final season in Carolina. Aside from Olsen in 2019, the Panthers haven’t had a tight end surpass even 200 yards receiving in a season at all in the past five seasons, so they could use someone like Hockenson.

                                  17. New York Giants – QB Daniel Jones (Duke)

                                    The Giants passed on Daniel Jones with the original pick they used on him, 6th overall, in order to ensure they could keep their stud interior defender Dexter Lawrence, but they still liked Jones enough to give him a 4-year, 160 million dollar extension last off-season and using the 17th overall pick on him would be much more justifiable than taking him at his original spot. The Giants still come out of this draft with Lawrence and Jones in the first round, just in an opposite order.

                                    18. Minnesota Vikings – DT Ed Oliver (Houston)

                                      Interior defender was a big position of weakness for the Vikings in 2019, as their only above average player at the position was Linval Joseph, who was in his age 31 season and his final season with the Vikings. Ed Oliver was originally the 9th overall pick in this draft and, while his run defense has been a liability and he probably wouldn’t be a top-10 pick again as a result, he’s still developed into one of the better interior pass rushers in the league. In five seasons in the league, he has totaled 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 career games, with his best season coming in 2023, when he had 9.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate.

                                      19. Tennessee Titans – DT Christian Wilkins (Clemson)

                                        The Titans miss out on Jeffery Simmons in this redraft, but Christian Wilkins is not a bad consolation prize. He’s a better run defender than pass rusher, but he also has 20.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 81 career games and he’s exceeded a 70 overall grade on PFF in three straight seasons. The team that originally drafted him, the Miami Dolphins, are likely to let him hit the open market as a free agent this off-season, but he figures to be in high demand and should be well-paid on a long-term contract.

                                        20. Denver Broncos – OT Kaleb McGary (Washington)

                                          McGary once looked like a bust as the 31st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, getting benched in his 2nd season in the league and having his 5th year option declined after his 3rd season in the league, but over the past two seasons he’s been one of the best run blocking tackles in the league, with PFF run blocking grades of 91.6 and 76.5 respectively. After his 4th season in the league, the Falcons reversed course with the player whose option they declined the year prior, keeping him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal and that deal proved to be a good value after McGary had another strong season again in 2023. 

                                          The amount of time it took McGary to develop and the fact that he has still only been a slightly above average pass protector over the past two seasons (pass blocking grades of 66.9 and 69.5 in 2022 and 2023 respectively) hurt him in this redraft, but this was an especially weak offensive tackle class, so by default McGary has been the best of the bunch. He would fill a big need for the Broncos, who were starting Elijah Wilkinson at right tackle in 2019 and have had issues at that position throughout the past five seasons. 

                                          21. Green Bay Packers – G Elgton Jenkins (Mississippi State)

                                            Elgton Jenkins was originally a second round pick by the Packers, but he has proved to be better than the player the Packers originally took here at 21, safety Darnell Savage, developing into an above average starting guard who can also play both tackle and center if needed (50 career starts at guard, 5 at center, and 13 at tackle). The Packers locked him up long-term on a 4-year, 68 million dollar extension before his 4th season in the league and would probably rather have him than Savage, who has been inconsistent in his career and is being allowed to hit the open market as a free agent this off-season.

                                            22. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)

                                              The Eagles have AJ Brown and Devonta Smith now, but there was a time when their wide receiver group was among the worst in the league, with Alshon Jeffery (43/490/4) and Travis Fulgham (38/539/4) leading the group in receiving in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Marquise Brown would have been a big upgrade over both players in the short-term and in the long-term he could have returned the Eagles a first round pick via trade to the Cardinals, as he did for the Ravens, who selected him 25th overall in 2019 and got pick 23rd back for him in 2021. 

                                              Brown hasn’t quite been as good as some of the elite wide receivers in this draft, but he surpassed 1000 yards receiving in his final season in Baltimore in 2021 and has a 74/860/7 slash line per 17 games in his career, with averages of 1.55 yards per route run and 6.94 yards per target, despite being on mediocre passing offenses for most of his career. The Cardinals have yet to re-sign him long-term, but he figures to get a sizable payday from someone this off-season, ahead of his age 27 season in 2024.

                                              23. Houston Texans – CB Jamel Dean (Auburn)

                                                Tytus Howard, the Texans’ original pick here, has had his moments, but has been inconsistent and injury prone throughout his career, so the Texans can aim a little higher here. Cornerback was a big need for them during the 2019 off-season and the player they drafted in the second round to address that need, Lonnie Johnson, proved to be a bust, which led to cornerback being a big weakness for the Texans in 2019 and in subsequent seasons. Dean, on the other hand, has received a grade of 74 or higher from PFF in four of five seasons in the league and was re-signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who originally drafted him in the third round, on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal.

                                                24. Oakland Raiders – RB Josh Jacobs (Alabama)

                                                  Running backs rarely go in the first round anymore and even more rarely do they prove to be worth their first round selection, but Jacobs, who was the Raiders’ original pick here, is an exception, as he’s accumulated 6,993 yards from scrimmage and 46 touchdowns as the Raiders’ workhorse running back over the past five seasons, including a 2022 season in which he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards, while also scoring 12 times on 340 carries and adding a 53/400/0 slash line through the air. Jacobs was franchise tagged after that 2022 season and, while he wasn’t re-signed long-term and it now seems unlikely he’ll be kept long-term off-season, that has more to do with running backs not aging well into their late 20s than anything Jacobs has done wrong and I don’t think the Raiders would change anything about drafting Jacobs and having him for the past five seasons.

                                                  25. Baltimore Ravens – WR Diontae Johnson (Toledo)

                                                    The Ravens had a desperate need for wide receiver help during the 2019 off-season. Marquise Brown, their original pick here, led Ravens wide receivers in yardage in 2019 and no one else had better than a 31/339/5 slash line at the wide receiver position. With Brown going off the board a few picks earlier, the Ravens will have to draft a different wide receiver, but Johnson isn’t much of a drop off. In five seasons in the league, the Steelers third round pick has averaged 85/951/5 per 17 games, 6.83 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run.

                                                    26. Washington Redskins – MLB Dre Greenlaw (Arkansas)

                                                      Washington misses out on their original pick Montez Sweat here, but Dre Greenlaw isn’t a bad consolation prize, as inside linebacker was a big position of need for them during the 2019 off-season. Washington eventually addressed the position in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft with Jamin Davis, but he has largely been a bust through three seasons in the league and taking Greenlaw here would have allowed them to avoid that mistake. Greenlaw plays outside for the 49ers in their 4-3 defense, but would fit well inside in Washington’s 3-4. He’s not a spectacular player, but has been an above average starter for the 49ers for most of his career since being a 5th round pick of theirs, leading to him being extended on a 2-year, 16.4 million dollar deal last off-season. 

                                                      27. Oakland Raiders – MLB TJ Edwards (Wisconsin)

                                                        Safety Johnathan Abram was a bust as the Raiders’ original pick. There isn’t another good safety available here for the Raiders to replace him with, but the Raiders had problems all over their defense in the 2019 off-season, so they can just take the best available defensive player left on the board. TJ Edwards originally went undrafted, but he has developed into one of the better inside linebackers in the league. 

                                                        A reserve as a rookie with the Eagles, Edwards flashed his potential early on with a 86.6 PFF grade on 112 snaps as a rookie and then continued to show that potential with a 66.5 grade on 492 snaps in 2020 and a 76.3 grade on 684 snaps in 2021, before becoming an every down player over the past two seasons and recording PFF grades of 84.8 and 79.6 on snap counts of 1,040 and 1,042 respectively. He only received a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal from the Bears in free agency last off-season after leaving Philadelphia, but that deal looks like a steal after he repeated his strong 2022 season again in 2023. If he played a more valuable position and didn’t take as long to develop into an every down player, he would have gone much higher than this in a redraft and he’d have more opportunity to play early on with the Raiders.

                                                        28. Los Angeles Chargers – C Erik McCoy (Texas A&M)

                                                          Offensive line has been a problem for the Chargers for years. They had veteran Mike Pouncey at center in 2019, but he was limited to five games by injury that season and then retired the following off-season. The Chargers gave a big contract to Corey Linsley during the 2021 off-season to try to fix the center position, but the aging veteran was limited to 33 games in 3 seasons with the Chargers by health problems. Erik McCoy would have been a younger, more long-term solution at the position. He’s made 74 starts in five seasons in the league with the Saints, who drafted him in the 2nd round and extended him on a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal, and he’s surpassed 70 on PFF in three of those five seasons. He also has the ability to move to guard in a pinch if needed, which would be valuable for a Chargers team that has also had issues at that position in recent years.

                                                          29. Seattle Seahawks – OT Jonah Williams (Alabama)

                                                            Williams never justified being the 11th overall pick by the Bengals in this draft, but in a historically weak tackle class, he still has a good chance to go in the first round. After missing his whole rookie season with injury, Williams actually had PFF grades of 70.1 and 77.1 in his second and third seasons in the league, before slipping to 61.2 in 2022, losing his left tackle job, and then falling further to 58.5 on the right side in 2023. Still, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of market he has in free agency this off-season, as some team could still give him at least 10 million a year to bet on his bounce back potential, only going into his age 27 season. The Seahawks had significant right tackle problems in 2019 and could have used Williams as a bookend to aging veteran left tackle Duane Brown.

                                                            30. New York Giants – MLB Bobby Okereke (Stanford)

                                                              Inside linebacker was a position of need for the Giants in 2019 and remained one for years. They eventually addressed it in a big way by signing Bobby Okereke to a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season and he was one of the better players in the league at his position in his first season with the team with a 78.9 PFF grade on 1,128 snaps, but in this scenario they get Okereke sooner. While 2023 was the best season of Okereke’s career, he also had a 73.3 grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and has mostly been an average or better player throughout his career, since being drafted in the third round by the Colts in 2019. He took time to develop into the player he is now, but he still has a good chance to go in the first round in a redraft when all is said and done.

                                                              31. Atlanta Falcons – RB Tony Pollard (Memphis)

                                                                Running backs rarely pan out as first round picks, but Pollard to the Falcons at the end of the first round is justifiable. The 2019 Falcons were led in rushing by a washed up Devonta Freeman, who averaged just 3.57 YPC on 184 carries, while an equally washed up Todd Gurley averaged just 3.48 YPC on 195 carries to lead the Falcons in 2020. Pollard, meanwhile, has averaged 4.75 YPC with 23 touchdowns on 762 career carries, while adding 1,318 yards and 5 touchdowns on 176 catches in five seasons in the league. 

                                                                Pollard was mostly a backup his first four seasons in the league with the Cowboys, who took him in the 4th round, but he still surpassed 1000 yards on just 193 carries with a 5.22 YPC average in his 4th season in the league in 2022, leading to a franchise tag from the Cowboys the following off-season. Pollard wasn’t as efficient in his first full season as a starter in 2023, with a 3.99 YPC average, but he still had 1,005 yards and 6 touchdowns on 252 carries, despite not being 100% for most of the season, recovering from a broken leg suffered in the previous post-season. Another year removed from that injury, Pollard could easily bounce back and prove he can be an efficient back even in a larger workload. Had he gone to a team like the Falcons instead of the Cowboys, he could have proven that earlier in his career, rather than sitting behind Ezekiel Elliott for most of it.

                                                                32. New England Patriots – WR Jakobi Meyers (NC State)

                                                                  The Patriots badly needed wide receiver help in the 2019 off-season, but their original pick of N’Keal Harry turned out to be a complete bust. Fortunately, they were able to at least find Jakobi Meyers as an undrafted free agent. He never developed into a true #1 receiver, but he was by default their leading receiver in 2020, 2021, and 2022, before signing with the Raiders on a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s averaged 1.71 yards per route run and 7.92 yards per target for his career and has a 78/893/4 slash line per 17 games over the past four seasons. Without a better wide receiver option available at this stage of the draft, I don’t think the Patriots would let Meyers get away from them.

                                                                  Super Bowl LVIII Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2023 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Super Bowl LVIII Pick

                                                                  San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) in Super Bowl LVIII

                                                                  The 49ers were by far the better of these two teams in the regular season, finishing the year with a +1.64 yards per play differential, a +6.50% first down rate differential, and a +39.4% DVOA, as opposed to +0.82, +3.55%, and +17.9% for the Chiefs. These two teams have been more even in the post-season, with the Chiefs having a -0.31 yards per play differential and a +2.87% first down rate differential, as opposed to +0.15 and -2.47% for the 49ers, but the 49ers are only slight favorites in this Super Bowl matchup, favored by 2.5 points, and the 49ers big advantage in their regular season numbers suggests they should be favored by more than that, even with both teams being more even in the post-season. The 49ers also have a 4.5-point edge in my roster rankings.

                                                                  However, Patrick Mahomes has been close to an automatic bet as an underdog in his career, with a 10-1 ATS record and a 9-2 straight up record. I ignored this because it was still a small sample size and took the Bills as 2.5-point favorites and the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs in the Chiefs’ last two games, but it’s becoming apparent that Mahomes should be picked against the spread every time he’s an underdog unless there’s a good reason not to, much like the quarterback he’s often compared against Tom Brady, who went 36-17 ATS and 31-22 straight up in his career as an underdog.

                                                                  The Chiefs also have the experience edge in this game, with head coach Andy Reid having been to four previous Super Bowls as a head coach and Patrick Mahomes having been to three, as opposed to one Super Bowl appearance as a head coach for 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan and none for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. On top of that, Andy Reid has been a strong bet in his career as a head coach when given an extra week to gameplan, going 36-24 ATS against the spread. The Chiefs aren’t worth a big bet unless we can get a full field goal against the spread with them, but at the very least the money line seems like a good value at +115.

                                                                  Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +115

                                                                  Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

                                                                  Confidence: Low