St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (6-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 55-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.88 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their home dominance might be too well documented, to the point where it gets priced into the line. After going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), the Seahawks are just 9-7 ATS at home since.

I don’t think that’s the case here though, as the Seahawks are “only” favored by 13 points, when I think they could be favored by more, given how well they play at home and that the Rams rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential and are on an absolute tear in recent weeks, as is typically the case with this team in the 2nd half of the regular season. They are 26-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season since 2011, the start of the Pete Carroll era.

All of this being said, I can’t be confident in the Seahawks for two reasons. The first is how banged up they are. They lost talented rookie running back Thomas Rawls for the season two weeks ago and starting running back Marshawn Lynch is not ready to return yet. On top of that, offensive tackle Russell Okung, safety Kam Chancellor, and wide receiver Doug Baldwin are all gametime decisions and, with the team pretty much locked into the #5 seed and an easy opponent, the Seahawks may opt to hold them out or limit their playing time, to avoid long-term injuries with the playoffs around the corner.

The second is that the Seahawks are in a bad spot. While this is essentially the Rams’ Super Bowl, the Seahawks have a much more important game on deck, a trip to Arizona that is going to be a big barometer for them as they head into the post-season. The Rams, meanwhile, go to San Francisco, where they are expected to be 2.5 point road favorites against the awful 49ers, according to the early line. Double digit underdogs are 55-32 ATS since 2002 before being favorites and, on the other side, double digit favorites are 54-72 ATS before being underdogs, over that same time period. Combining the two, double digit favorites are 11-29 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Seahawks are actually 2.5 point favorites in Arizona on the early line for whatever reason, but that could change between now and then and the logic holds either way. Seattle is still my pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 20 St. Louis Rams 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -13

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (5-9)

The Colts have really fallen apart in the last 3 weeks, losing all 3 games by a combined final score of 112-36. Luckily for them, they face one of the worst teams in the NFL this week, a Miami Dolphins team that ranks 31st in rate of moving the chains differential and that is likely going to be without talented center Mike Pouncey in this one. As poorly as the Colts have played in recent weeks, they’re still a far better team than the Dolphins, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, so they should be able to bounce back this week and win on the road against a Miami team that is just 11-23 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

The Colts are also in a much better spot than the Dolphins, as they host the Titans next week. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have to turn around and play the Patriots, so they could look past Indianapolis. Their season is over in terms of their playoff chances and New England is annually their biggest home game. The early line has them as 3.5 point home underdogs and teams are 84-129 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+. That line could change if the Patriots win this week, lock up the #1 seed, and rest their starters for some or all of the game, but the logic holds either way. It’s a huge upcoming game on their schedule.

On top of that, favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the early line has them favored by 3 at home against Tennessee). The only reason this isn’t a high confidence pick or Pick of the Week is because of how unbelievably banged up 40-year-old Colts quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (jaw, back, neck, ribs) is, something that seems to be showing in his play recently. The Colts would probably be better off going with Charlie Whitehurst, who was serviceable in limited action with the Titans last week. Whitehurst could still see action if Hasselbeck continues to struggle or gets hurt even further. I still have enough confident in the Colts to put money on them as 2.5 point underdogs.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-10)

The Steelers are in a great spot here. While the Ravens head to Cincinnati to play the Ravens next week, the Steelers go to Cleveland to face the Browns, a far easier opponent. The early lines have the Ravens as 10 point underdogs next week, while the Steelers are 9.5 point favorites. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

On the other side, underdogs of 6+ are 42-70 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ underdogs again, for the opposite reasons. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 56-34 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. On top of that, teams are 56-99 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010, and 49-27 ATS before being road favorites of 7+, over that same time period. With two tough divisional games in a two weeks span, the Ravens could easily have trouble covering against a Steelers team that has two easy divisional games in a two week span.

There are three reasons why I’m not confident in the Steelers though. The first is that the Ravens are in kind of a good spot as well, as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs are 76-53 ATS since 2002 and the Ravens lost as home underdogs against the Chiefs last week. The second is that the public is all over the Steelers and I hate going with sides that are heavily backed by the public, as the public always loses money in the long run. The third is that this line might be too high at 10.5.

There wasn’t a line last week because we didn’t know who would be starting at quarterback for the Ravens (and frankly we still don’t, but any differences between Ryan Mallett, Matt Schaub, and Jimmy Clausen in terms of their ability to lead this offense are negligible), but if there was, it probably would have required a significant line movement to get us to this 10.5 point line and I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play.

The Ravens rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Steelers rank 8th. The Steelers are even better than that suggests, as they’ve moved the chains at a 75.87% rate in the 10 games where Ben Roethlisberger plays, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games where he hasn’t. The Ravens, meanwhile, are worse than their rank suggests, as the amount of key players the Ravens have lost for the season have really piled up as the season has gone on.

They’ve lost wide receiver Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, and tight end Crockett Gillmore for the season with injury. In the 4 games since losing Flacco and Forsett, they’ve moved the chains at a 65.00% rate, as opposed to 68.37% in their previous 10 games. It’s still hard to see how we get a line of 10.5 though, as there are only about 4 or 5 games per year in which a team is favored by double digits on the road. I’m going with the Steelers still because they’re in such a great spot and have shown the ability to score at will in recent weeks, but this is a no confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -10.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)

I’m really torn on this one. On one hand, the Chiefs are in a much better spot than the Browns. While the Chiefs close their season out with a home game against the Raiders, a game in which they’re expected to be 7 point favorites, according to the early line, the Browns have to turn around and host the Steelers, against whom they’re expected to be 9.5 point underdogs. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

On the other side, underdogs of 6+ are 42-70 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ underdogs again, for the opposite reasons. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 56-34 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. On top of that, teams are 43-90 ATS before being 7+point home underdogs since 2008, as the Browns will be next week. With a huge upcoming home game against a tough divisional rival, the Browns could really have a hard time covering against a Chiefs team that finishes up their season with a relatively easy home game.

On the other hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 128-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game.

On top of that, we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Browns. The Browns are obviously not a good team, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Chiefs rank 9th and I don’t think are quite good enough to be laying double digits here, given how banged up they are at outside linebacker. Justin Houston will miss his 4th straight game and, while 2014 1st round pick Dee Ford has been solid in his absence, he’s obviously not as good as Houston, who was once again playing at an All-Pro level prior to going down. On the other side, Tamba Hali may miss this game with a broken thumb and, even if he does play, he won’t be at 100%. Houston and Hali are both huge parts of this defense.

The Browns have significant injuries at guard, as Joel Bitonio will miss his 5th game in the last 6 games and John Greco will miss his first of the season. Both of those players were big parts of a strong offensive line, especially in pass protection, and are out for the season. However, Johnny Manziel is playing the best football of any Browns quarterback this season, as they’ve moved the chains at a 71.01% rate in his 5 starts, as opposed to 67.86% in their other 9 games.

He’s been especially impressive in the past two weeks, since regaining the starting job, following a demotion for an off-the-field issue. Because of that, the Browns almost covered in Seattle in a very similar situation last week, with the Seahawks having another easy game on deck and the Browns having this tough game on deck. We’ll see if Manziel’s solid play continues and if the 2014 1st round pick is impressive enough to stay in Cleveland as the starter into 2016. With the public all over the Chiefs, I’m going with the Browns, but if the line dips under 10, I’d change my mind. It’s that close. It’s a no confidence pick either way.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10.5

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (14-0) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

The Panthers are 14-0, but that doesn’t mean they’ll take their foot off the gas, at least not this week and possibly not at all, as they attempt a perfect season. This week, they’re actually still playing for playoff seeding, as 2 straight losses to finish the season, along with another two straight wins by the Arizona Cardinals drops the Panthers down to the #2 seed. It’s a highly unlikely scenario, but a reason for the Panthers to keep giving full effort, beyond the possible perfect season.

They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but they’re otherwise healthy and they’re obviously a far better team than the Falcons, who they blew out in Carolina two weeks back by the final score of 38-0. This one is in Atlanta, but the Panthers still have a good chance to cover this 7 point spread. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 16th for the Falcons and they’re in a couple of good spots. They don’t have any upcoming distractions, hosting the Buccaneers next week, against whom they’re projected to be 10 point favorites, according to the early line. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

It also helps the Panthers that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Road favorites are 46-32 ATS since 2008 off of a road win, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Panthers given that the public is all over them and that the public always loses money in the long run, but I’m going with Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

This line suggests that these two teams are even and that the Buccaneers have a standard homefield advantage, as the Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home. I don’t agree with either of those. The Buccaneers are just 18-36 ATS at home since 2009 and have been outscored by 48 points at home on the season this year, as opposed to +6 on the road. They also rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, a few spots lower than the Bears, who rank 18th.

On top of that, the Bears were missing Jay Cutler for two games, which skews that number a little bit. In the 12 games Cutler has been healthy, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the other 2 games. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but there’s no denying the Bears would rank higher if Cutler had been healthy all year, like he is now.

The Bears have also faced a much tougher schedule than the Buccaneers, ranking 2nd in strength of schedule, as opposed to 30th for the Buccaneers. The Bears have been a slightly better team than the Buccaneers this season, despite a way tougher schedule, and despite missing their starting quarterback for two games, but despite that, they’re 3 point underdogs here in Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years. We’re definitely getting line value with the Bears.

The Bears are also in a way better spot, as they host the Lions next week, while the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina. With their season over in terms of their playoff chances, the Buccaneers could definitely get caught looking forward to their chance at ending the Panthers undefeated season. While the Bears are expected to be favored by 1.5 points next week at home against the Lions, the Buccaneers are expected to be 10 point underdogs in Carolina, per the early line.

The Panthers could definitely end up deciding to rest their starters at least somewhat in that one, with the #1 seed likely to be locked up by then, but they might not with a perfect season on the line and that game could easily serve as a distraction for the Buccaneers this week either way. Teams are 37-58 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and 37-60 ATS since 2002 as favorites before being double digit underdogs. On top of that, favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Combining the two trends, teams are 20-47 ATS since 1989 as favorites before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites.

It also helps the Bears that they are in their 2nd of 2 road games. Teams are 128-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game. I love the Bears this week. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because talented wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is expected to be a gametime decision for the Bears.

Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: High

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (12-2) at New York Jets (9-5)

The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points in New York against the Jets this week. That doesn’t make sense, as it suggests the Patriots would be about 9 or 9.5 point favorites if this game were played in New England. The Patriots were favored by 9 points in New England when these two met there earlier this season, but the line didn’t make sense then either and I took the Jets for a big play. The Jets covered and, though the Patriots ended up winning by a touchdown, the Jets were covering for most of the game and matched the Patriots much more evenly than the line suggested, actually winning the rate of moving the chains differential battle 77.14% to 76.67%.

On the season, they’re also much more evenly matched than this line suggests. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Jets are right behind them in 6th and have been playing great football since getting center Nick Mangold and cornerback Darrelle Revis both back from injury, as those are two of their best players. It might not have seemed that way last week, when they only won by a field goal in Dallas, but that was on the road, which is always significantly tougher than at home, and they could have won by significantly more if they didn’t miss an extra point, a makeable field goal, and get stuffed on 4th and inches near the goal line early in the game. They won the rate of moving the chains battle 68.75% to 57.14%.

The Patriots are also much more banged up this time around, while the Jets have remained one of the healthiest teams in the league all season. Running backs Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount have since been lost for the season for the Patriots, while wide receiver Julian Edelman, tight end Rob Gronkowski, guard Josh Kline, middle linebacker Dont’a Hightower, wide receiver Danny Amendola, and safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are all dealing with injuries.

In an ordinary week, the majority of them would play, but this game isn’t super important to the Patriots, as they need to win just one of their next two games (against the Jets and Dolphins) or have the Bengals lose in Denver, where they are underdogs this week, to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. For the Jets, this is do or die as they basically need to win out to even make the playoffs. I’m going to take the 3.5 points at home with the slightly inferior, but healthier team in a game that means more to them, especially since the public is all over the Patriots. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

New York Jets 20 New England Patriots 19 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

New York Giants (6-8) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5)

The Giants have lost wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. for this critical late season game, as he was suspended for a game for a number of personal fouls in last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers, including a headbutt of cornerback Josh Norman. The Vikings, meanwhile, get key defenders back from extended absences, as defensive tackle Linval Joseph (3 games missed), outside linebacker Anthony Barr (2.5 games missed), and safety Harrison Smith (2.5 games missed) are all expected back, huge boosts to a defense that has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 79.38% rate over the past 3 games, as opposed to 69.94% in the first 11 games of the season. Running back Adrian Peterson is missing practice time with an ankle injury he suffered last week, but he too is expected to play.

The question is how much will any of those players play and how much effort will the Vikings put into winning this game. If the Packers lose in Arizona earlier in the day (this is the Sunday night game), this game actually won’t matter for the Vikings. The NFC North and a home playoff game will come down to next week’s Packers/Vikings showdown in Green Bay and the result of this game will be irrelevant. Assuming the Packers lose, win or lose this game, the Vikings will not be eliminated in the North and, win or lose this game, they’ll still need to win in Green Bay to clinch the division, as a loss in Green Bay gives the Packers the season series and the head-to-head tiebreaker, but a win in Green Bay gives the Vikings the tiebreaker, by virtue of their better divisional record.

Plus, if the Vikings lose to the Packers next week, they’ll need the Seahawks to lose out (including at home to the Rams this week as 13.5 point favorites) to finish any higher than the 6th seed, regardless of the outcome of this game. Assuming the Seahawks win and the Packers lose this week, the Vikings will be looking at a rare scenario where they get the #3 seed if they win next week, the #6 seed if they lose next week, and this week 16 game won’t matter either way.

If the Packers win in Arizona, the Vikings will need to win here to keep up with the Packers, as a Minnesota loss and a Green Bay win clinches the division for the Packers this week, but the Packers are 4.5 point road underdogs in Arizona against a Cardinals team that is 12-2, ranks 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, and has won 8 straight games (the longest winning streak in the NFL outside of the undefeated Panthers). Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has already raised the possibility of resting some injured players if the Packers lose, so everyone can stay healthy for a critical week 17 showdown, so while Peterson, Joseph, Smith, and Barr should all play, how much they play and the Vikings’ overall level of effort and motivation in this game could be highly questionable.

This game could also become meaningless for the Giants if the Redskins beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, as the Giants would be eliminated in that scenario, but the Redskins are 3 point underdogs in Philadelphia. Plus, even if the Giants are eliminated before this game, they’re a team with a veteran quarterback and head coach, so they should still give effort for pride and love of the game purposes, as most eliminated teams do. It would be a different situation than Minnesota’s, as resting injured starters and taking it easy this week would be actually a strategic move for them.

I could wait until right before gametime to make this pick, but, if the Packers lose and the Seahawks win, this line could drop significantly and we’d lose line value with the Vikings. The Vikings rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 19th for the Giants, so getting 5.5 points with a Giants team that is 61-40 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (since 2004) is a good deal, even without Beckham. Even if the Packers win, the Vikings are still in a bad spot with such a critical game upcoming and could overlook the 6-8 Giants. While the Vikings will be underdogs next week, the Giants will be favorites at home against the Eagles and favorites are 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. I’m taking the points.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-8)

This line suggests these two teams are even, but I disagree. Not only do the Redskins have a better record, but they also rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential, ranking 15th, while the Eagles come in at 24th. On top of that, the Eagles are expected to be without nose tackle Bennie Logan, one of the better run stuffers in the league, after he suffered what could end up being a season ending calf injury last week. The Eagles are also in a terrible spot, as they play the Giants in New York next week. Divisional home favorites are awful before being divisional road underdogs, 22-58 ATS dating back to 2002, one of the most powerful trends there is.

Despite that, I don’t love the Redskins this week for three reasons. The first is that they’re also in kind of a bad spot too, as they could be overconfident coming off of a home win as underdogs last week against the Bills. Teams are 45-72 ATS since 2012 off of an upset home victory. The second is that this is such an important game for both teams that trends might not matter. If the Redskins win, they’ll clinch the division and eliminate both the Eagles and the Giants. If the Eagles win, they’ll not only put themselves into a tie with the Redskins atop the division, they’ll also even the season series between themselves and the Redskins and give themselves a good shot at winning the division.

The third reason is that the public is all over the Redskins and I hate talking a side that’s heavily backed by the public, especially when the public is heavily on an underdog. The public always loses money in the long run and when they think one team is going to win outright and the odds makers think it’ll be another team, it’s usually a big red flag. I’m still taking the Redskins to cover, but I wouldn’t put any money on it. If this line moves up to 3.5, I’ll reconsider, as close to 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (4-10) at Oakland Raiders (6-8)

The Chargers are just 4-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-7 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -6.6 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -2.8 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents by 282 yards.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 8 of 14 games and could easily be 6-8, 7-7, or even 8-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team.

The Raiders are also a solid team and also better than their record (6-8), ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re not better than the Chargers by a wide margin, as this 5.5 point line suggests. They beat the Chargers earlier this year in San Diego, but the Chargers are arguably a better road team than home team, as they seemingly have no fans. As a result, their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is.

The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS at home, including losses to Chicago, Oakland, and the Michael Vick lead Pittsburgh Steelers, but they’re 4-2 ATS on the road and one of those non-covers was a 5 point loss in Cincinnati early in the season as 3 point underdogs against a Bengals team that has turned out to be one of the best in the NFL. Just one of their road losses has come by more than a touchdown and if they can keep it close against the likes of Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Kansas City, they can certainly do so against an Oakland team that has lost to all 3 of those teams. Plus, revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one, as divisional road underdogs are 56-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002.

Both of these teams have tough upcoming games, as the Raiders go to Kansas City next week and the Chargers go to Denver, but it should affect the Raiders more than the Chargers. Divisional home favorites are awful before being divisional road underdogs, 22-58 ATS dating back to 2002, one of the most powerful trends there is. I don’t really like making my Pick of the Week on a Thursday game (in fact, I can’t remember a single time I’ve done this), as short rest games can be pretty unpredictable, but this has everything I look for in a Pick of the Week so I’ll pull the trigger. This should be a close game at the least and I like the Chargers to actually win straight up.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick +195

Pick against the spread: San Diego +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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