Arizona Cardinals 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 17, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Cardinals made the playoffs last season at 11-5, but they finished the season 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, behind non-playoff teams like Kansas City, New Orleans, Miami, San Diego, and Philadelphia and worst among playoff teams. Arizona’s 11-5 record was buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and their +11 point differential was 2nd worst among qualifying playoff teams. The Cardinals also benefitted from tough to sustain things like a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, and a +4 return touchdown margin. They were especially bad down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 7 games, including a loss in Carolina in the playoffs to a 7-8-1 Panthers team (who still finished the season ahead of them in rate of moving the chains differential). Even though the scoreboard only read 27-16 in their playoff loss, they had just 8 first downs to Carolina’s 25.

However, there is some hope that the Cardinals might not regress in the win column. Part of the reason the Cardinals struggled last season, particularly down the stretch, was that they were essentially down to their 4^th string quarterback by the end of last season. 1^st and 2^nd string quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton both missed significant time with injury, while 3^rd string quarterback Logan Thomas struggled mightily in limited action as a 4^th round rookie and did not impress in practice either. That forced the Cardinals to bring in Ryan Lindley over from San Diego’s practice squad to start down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Lindley completed just 48.4% of his passes for an average of 6.04 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions and then completed 16 of 28 for 82 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in the playoff loss. Arguably the worst quarterback in NFL history to ever start a playoff game, Lindley has completed 50.8% of his passes for an average of 4.98 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his career and might never throw another NFL pass. Not only are the Cardinals highly unlikely to have to resort to signing someone from another team’s practice squad in November to make starts this season, if they do have to do that, chances are that quarterback will be better than Lindley. Even for a 4^th string quarterback, he’s horrible. His 50.3 career QB rating is the worst in the NFL over the past 10 years among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 200 passes.

The Cardinals moved the chains at a 73.58% rate in games started by Carson Palmer (6 games) last season and a 67.03% rate in games started by other quarterbacks. Carson Palmer is expected to be back for week 1, after a torn ACL ended a 2014 season in which he completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He might not be quite that good again this season. For one thing, ACL tears can be tough to bounce back from, especially when it’s a knee you’ve injured before (he tore that same ACL in 2005). On top of that, he’s going into his age 36 season. That won’t make his recovery easier and he probably would have declined this season anyway. Being in your age 36 season is tough and coming off of a twice torn ACL is tough, but doing them together could be especially tough.

It doesn’t help that Palmer’s ACL tear was in November, relatively late in the season, which gives him less recovery time. Early reports out of camp are good, but you can’t always trust those. Also, Palmer is unlikely to throw an interception on just 1.3% of his passes again next season, as his career average is 3.2%. He could struggle this season by his standards, after grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2009-2014.

If he gets hurt again, next in line is Drew Stanton, who made 8 starts last season, before going down for the season with an injured knee. Even if Palmer isn’t himself anymore, Stanton would still be a noticeable downgrade from Palmer, like he was last season. Last season, he completed 55.0% of his passes for an average of 7.13 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. Head Coach Bruce Arians is a great offensive mind and has incredibly won 2 of the last 3 Coach of the Year Awards, but there’s only so much you can do if the talent’s not there.

A 2007 2^nd round pick, Stanton has completed 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.72 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, never grading out above average in Pro Football Focus’ history and not throwing a pass from 2011-2013. He’s a low-end backup quarterback at best and he won’t get any better in his age 31 season. They might not have great quarterback play this season, but they should exceed last year’s production, when they completed 56.3% of their passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

Only their 2.1% QB rating seems hard to repeat, as they threw a fluky low amount of interceptions last season. Turnovers are already kind of fluky because they only happen on such a low percentage of snaps, but it’s especially fluky that the Cardinals had such few interceptions last season when their quarterback play was as bad as it was and when they threw down field as much as they did last season. They won’t necessarily dominate the turnover/return touchdown battle again this season, but improved quarterback play should offset that, at least somewhat.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Outside of the quarterback position, the Cardinals didn’t really have many games lost on offense, as they finished 8^th in offensive adjusted games lost, so they can’t exactly count on reinforcements returning from injury outside of the quarterback spot. The only other big injury they had on offense was Andre Ellington. Ellington only missed 4 games with injury, but was limited by injuries all season, most notably a toe injury he suffered in the pre-season. As a result, he rushed for 660 yards and 3 touchdowns on 201 carries, an average of 3.28 YPC. Ellington’s ineffectiveness on such a large volume, as well as the Cardinals’ lack of running back talent behind him on the depth chart, led to the Cardinals averaging a league worst 3.30 yards per carry. Ellington’s injuries aren’t really reflected in their low amount of offensive adjusted games lost because there was usually little doubt he’d play, but the Cardinals’ inability to run the ball last season contributed to their offense being stagnant.

Ellington was much better as a 6^th round rookie in 2013, underutilized on 118 carries, rushing for 652 yards and 3 touchdowns, an average of 5.52 YPC. However, that’s no guarantee that he won’t continue to struggle in 2015. Ellington might just not be cut out to be a lead back and handle that type of workload, at 5-9 199, with a history of injury problems that date back to his collegiate days at Clemson. He should be more effective this season and he’s got strong pass catching abilities with 85 catches in 27 career games, but it’s highly possible he never becomes an above average starting running back.

The Cardinals used a 3^rd round pick on David Johnson in this past draft, but despite his 6-1 224 frame, he might not be the power complement to Andre Ellington that they need. He plays faster and smaller than his listed size and is a solid receiver out of the backfield. In fact, Bruce Arians has compared Johnson to Ellington, suggesting that they see him as a clear backup and someone who can play a similar style if Ellington gets hurt. That’s something they didn’t have last season and Ellington should be more productive, but this isn’t exactly a perfect tandem.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The one area the Cardinals had no injuries was the offensive line, a big part of the reason why they had such few adjusted games lost. The Cardinals had 5 guys make 78 out of 80 starts and 3 of those guys played every snap. Only right guard Paul Fanaika missed time with injury, missing weeks 14 and 15 and being replaced by Jonathan Cooper. However, just because the Cardinals were healthy on the offensive line, doesn’t mean they played well, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 29^th ranked run blocking offensive line and 23^rd ranked pass blocking offensive line. Only one player played a snap upfront for the Cardinals and graded out above average. That didn’t help them move the chains.

That above average player was left tackle Jared Veldheer, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked offensive tackle in the first year of a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal. Veldheer was one of several recent big investments by the Cardinals since new GM Steve Keim came in 3 off-seasons ago, in order to turn around a perennially poor offensive front and he looks like a steal thus far. He should be able to repeat that season in 2015, only going into his age 28 season. A 2010 3^rd round pick, Veldheer graded out 16^th, 15^th, and 9^th among offensive tackles in 2011, 2012, and 2014 respectively, with a 2013 season mostly lost to injury in between. Basically, whenever he’s been healthy, he’s been good and, aside from 2013, he’s never missed a game.

Another recent investment by the Cardinals upfront is Mike Iupati, who was signed to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal by the Cardinals this off-season. He’ll be a clear upgrade at left guard over Ted Larsen, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68^th ranked guard out of 78 eligible last season. The 17th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft by the 49ers, Iupati has graded out in the top-14 at his position on Pro Football Focus in 4 of the 5 seasons he’s been in the league, with the exception coming in an injury plagued 2013, when he still graded out above average. Despite that injury plagued 2013 season, he’s missed just 4 games in 5 seasons, all coming in 2013. One concern is that, while he’s annually one of the top run blocking guards in the NFL, he has graded out below average as a pass protector in 3 of 5 seasons so, as talented as he is, he’s not that well-rounded and he does have a glaring weakness. He’ll be a big asset though.

In addition to bringing in Iupati, the Cardinals also used their first round pick on DJ Humphries, an offensive tackle out of Florida. Bruce Arians is talking up incumbent Bobby Massie and saying that Humphries won’t have anything handed to him and referring to Massie as a starter, but it’s early and he’s likely just giving Massie his due respect as a veteran and challenging the newcomer. Even though Humphries is raw, only going into his age 22 season as a rookie, it’s unlikely that the Cardinals used a 1^st round pick on him just to have him ride the pine. Massie graded out below average last season, something he’s done in all 3 seasons in the league in 32 starts, since the Cardinals drafted him in the 4^th round in 2012.

If the Cardinals want to get their best 5 offensive linemen out there regardless of position, they might have either Humphries or Massie start at right guard this season, before Massie hits free agency next off-season. Massie was a below average starter at right tackle, but could be a better fit inside or Humphries could find life easier for him inside early in his career. Currently penciled in as the starting right guard is Jonathan Cooper, the 7^th overall pick in 2013 and someone who has been a massive bust thus far. Injuries and ineffective play in practice have limited him to 189 snaps in 2 seasons in the league and he hasn’t shown much more on the field, despite being called the best interior line prospect in a decade when he came out. He’s entering a make or break year could easily end up not starting if the Cardinals decide to move Massie or Humphries inside. 2013 4^th round pick Earl Watford is reportedly also in the mix to start, but he has played 9 nondescript snaps in 2 seasons in the league and isn’t a likely starting option, especially if Massie or Humphries moves inside.

Cooper could see time at center if he’s unable to nail down the right guard spot. Currently competing for the starting center job is Ted Larsen and AQ Shipley. Larsen, as I mentioned earlier, struggled mightily at left guard last season. He’s also graded out below average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league, splitting time between center and guard. Shipley, meanwhile, struggled mightily at guard in 2013, grading out 66^th out of 81 eligible, but has graded out above average as a center in both 2012 and 2014. He was weirdly benched after 4 weeks in Indianapolis last year, despite being Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked center at the time. The Cardinals seem to actually believe in him and he’s likely the favorite over Ted Larsen. He’s definitely flashed. Either one of them should be an improvement over Lyle Sendlein, who was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked center last season. He was cut by the Cardinals and remains unsigned as a free agent this off-season. It’s definitely an improved offensive line, but also one that still has holes.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The big decision the Cardinals had to make heading into this off-season involved Larry Fitzgerald, the face of the franchise and a player who has been with the Cardinals since they drafted him 3^rd overall in 2004. Fitzgerald signed a 7-year, 113 million dollar extension 4 off-seasons ago, but hasn’t had a 1000+ yard season since 2011, the first year after the extension. There was no way he’d be back next in 2015 at his 16 million dollar non-guaranteed salary. It was only a question of whether or not they’d bring him back at a cheaper rate or outright cut him.

The Cardinals opted to do the former and I think it was a huge mistake. Yes, it lessens Fitzgerald’s cap hit for 2015, which was scheduled to be 23.6 million, but if that was the most of a pay cut that Fitzgerald was willing to take, they should have just outright cut them, a move that would have saved them about 9 million on the cap immediately and gotten him off their cap completely for 2016. This deal pays Fitzgerald 22 million dollars over the next 2 seasons, all of which will show up on their cap at some point because it’s all fully guaranteed.

That 11 million dollar annual average is 5th highest in the NFL behind Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, and Vincent Jackson. Fitzgerald is not the 5th best wide receiver in the NFL at all, not any more. From 2005-2011, Fitzgerald averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games, even though he never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years. He was fantastic then. That’s why he got that deal in the first place.

However, 2011 was his last 1000+ yard season. His 71/798/4 line in 2012 was understandable because he had supremely terrible quarterback play, but even with better quarterback play in 2013 and 2014, he only averaged 73 catches for 839 yards and 6 touchdowns in 15 games. He was Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked wide receiver in passing grade in 2013 and their 28th ranked in that category in 2014. He’s still a solid receiver, but he’s not the same player he was when he was in his prime. It’s promising that he had 32 catches for 483 yards and 2 touchdowns in Palmer’s 6 starts last season, 85 catches for 1288 yards and 5 touchdowns over 16 games, but he’s still unlikely to have another 1000+ yard season again ever.

Part of the reason why is because the Cardinals like to spread it around to three different wide receivers, Fitzgerald, 2012 1^st round pick Michael Floyd, and 2014 3^rd round pick John Brown. Fitzgerald had 100 targets on 506 routes run, Floyd 93 targets on 585 routes run, and Brown 94 targets on 459 routes run last season. Floyd caught just 47 of those targets, but he did turn them into 841 yards and 6 touchdowns. Still, he wasn’t nearly as good as he was in his 2^nd season in the league in 2013, when he graded out 22^nd among wide receivers and caught 65 passes for 1041 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s hoping to have a bounce back year in his 4^th year in the league in 2015, as he angles for a long-term deal, and improved quarterback play should help.

Brown, meanwhile, caught 48 of those passes for 696 yards and 5 touchdowns. The 3^rd rounder was a one-dimensional deep threat as a rookie and the only one of the trio to grade out below average last season. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league in 2015 and Bruce Arians has had success with similar receivers like TY Hilton and Mike Wallace in previous stops, but he was only a 3^rd round pick so, while Hilton and Wallace were only 3^rd rounders as well, there isn’t any guarantee he ever becomes a complete receiver. He’ll technically be the #3 receiver behind #2 Floyd and #1 Fitzgerald, but they’ll spread the ball around and use a bunch of 3-wide sets once again this season. All three of them should be more productive simply because the quarterback play should be better and they are a trio of solid targets.

As Bruce Arians’ offense loves throwing downfield to 3 different wide receivers, the tight end position is not as important as it is in other offenses. Starter John Carlson was horrible last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 65^th ranked tight end out of 67 eligible. He fortunately retired this off-season, while Rob Housler, who graded out below average last season as well, signed with Cleveland as a free agent. 2014 2^nd round pick Troy Niklas was drafted to be a big part of their offense and will get a chance this season, as he’s penciled into the starting role right now, but he’ll have to stay healthy.

That’s not something he was able to do as a rookie, when he struggled mightily on 90 snaps. This off-season, he’s still having ankle problems. The Cardinals didn’t draft a tight end until the 7^th round so Darren Fells, who flashed last season on 229 snaps, the first snaps of his career, will be their only insurance. That leaves them dangerously thin at the position, which knocks this receiving corps down a little bit. They should be better offensively this season thanks to better health at quarterback and running back and increased talent on the offensive line.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

While the Cardinals were poor offensively last season, they were strong defensively, allowing opponents to move the chains at the 3^rd lowest rate in the NFL. They might not be as good this season, as a result of offensive losses. Dan Williams signed with the Raiders on a 4-year, 25 million dollar deal this off-season, while Tommy Kelly remains unsigned going into his age 35 season and is likely considering retirement. Those were two of their 3 starters on their 3-man defensive line last season. Williams graded out 14^th among defensive tackles, while Kelly ranked 17^th among 3-4 defensive ends. They’ll be tough to replace.

In order to try to replace them, the Cardinals signed Corey Peters and Cory Redding. Cory Redding was Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and their 11th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013. The problem is he’s going into his age 35 season, so it’s hard to trust him going forward. He ranked 27th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and could regress to that level in 2015 given his age. He’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons and the Cardinals risked very little with a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal, but he can’t necessarily be counted on to be an asset.

Peters, meanwhile, will be a two-down player inside nose tackle, a position he’s never played and somewhere where he might be undersized at 6-3 305. Peters tore his Achilles in 2013 at the worst possible time, in a meaningless week 16 game, just before he was set to hit free agency. Peters was forced to settle for a cheap one year deal back in Atlanta in an attempt to rehab his value and he did a decent job. He played 15 games (except week 1 when he was kept out for precautionary reasons) and graded out about average on 535 snaps.

Other than that Achilles tear, he doesn’t have a significant injury history, as he’s missed just 9 games in 5 seasons combined since the Falcons drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010. Peters struggled in the first 3 seasons of his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including a 2010 season in which he graded out 62nd out of 76 eligible and a 2012 season in which he graded out 83rd out of 85 eligible, but he’s graded out right about average in each of the last 2 seasons and he’s going into his age 27 season. We’ll see how he does at a new position.

Frostee Rucker remains and will once again play in a rotational reserve position at 3-4 defensive end, as he did last season, when he played 487 snaps. He should be in the 400-500 range once again this season. He graded out above average for the first time in his career last season, but the 9-year veteran is unlikely to repeat the best season of his career again in an age 32 season in 2015. He’ll rotate snaps with Redding and is best in a reserve role.

Also still around is Calais Campbell, which is obviously good because he’s their most indispensable player on either side of the field (only behind maybe the quarterback Carson Palmer). He was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season and has graded out in the top-4 in each of the last 4 seasons at the position, something no one else can say. Only going into his age 29 season with just 7 games missed in 7 seasons in his career, I see no reason that can’t continue next season. Aside from JJ Watt, he’s arguably the best 3-4 defensive end in the game.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

John Abraham led the 2013 Cardinals with 12 sacks, but was limited to 37 snaps by the Cardinals in 2014 thanks to concussion problems and he’s expected to retire this off-season, ahead of his age 37 season. In his absence, Alex Okafor led the way with 8 sacks, but he didn’t play that well overall, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 45^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 eligible, particularly struggling against the run. Last season was the first significant action of his career, after playing just 5 snaps as a 4^th round rookie in 2013. He’ll be back as a starter in 2015 and could be better in his 3^rd year in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee. The Cardinals better hope he improves because they don’t really have another option.

On the other side, Sam Acho was 2^nd among Cardinal outside linebackers in snaps played last season, grading out above average on 483 snaps, but he’s now in Chicago, leaving as a free agent. The Cardinals used a 2^nd round pick on Markus Golden as a replacement and, while he definitely fills a need and could be a solid player for them long-term, but he’s very raw and not someone the Cardinals are going to be able to depend on as a rookie, even in obvious passing situations.

Acho split time with Matt Shaughnessy last season and Golden will do that this season as well, working as a situational pass rusher with Shaughnessy playing early downs as primarily a run stopper. That’s a good role for him as, while he’s graded out below average as a pass rusher in 4 straight seasons, the big 6-5 270 pounder has also graded out above average as a run stopper in 5 straight seasons, playing both 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker since the Raiders drafted him in the 3^rd round in 2009. He only played 341 snaps last season because he missed 8 games with injuries, but he should have a much bigger role in 2015.

Inside, Paris Lenon was one of the worst middle linebackers in the NFL last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 56^th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible. He made the smart decision to retire ahead of his age 35 season this off-season and is now a member of the Cardinals’ coaching staff. The Cardinals are hoping Daryl Washington can replace him, but he has yet to be reinstated. He was suspended all of last season because of substance abuse and domestic violence and his status for 2015 is very much up in the air. Most expect him to be reinstated and then serve an additional 4-6 game suspension, but that’s unknown at this time. Washington, a 2010 2^nd round pick, graded out above average in every season from 2010-2013, including 11^th among middle linebackers in 2010, 9^th in 2011, and 3^rd in 2012. It’s tough to know what to expect from him after missing an entire season, but he should be an asset for them when on the field.

The Cardinals signed Sean Weatherspoon as a free agent as insurance, but the problem is they don’t have an insurance policy for him and, if his history is any indication, they might need one. It’s been a steep drop off for Weatherspoon since he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2011 after being drafted in the 1st round in 2010. He’s played in just 20 of 48 games combined over the past 3 seasons, grading out below average in 2012 and 2013 and missing all of 2014 with a torn Achilles. 2011 remains the only season in his career that he’s played all 16 games and the only season in his career in which he’s graded out above average, as he missed 5 games as a rookie and graded out below average when on the field. He’s missed 33 games in 5 seasons.

If and when Washington is on the field this season, Weatherspoon will compete for snaps at the other middle linebacker spot with the incumbent Kevin Minter. I’m not so sure that Weatherspoon wins that battle. Minter, 2013 2^nd round pick, is a limited player, particularly in coverage, but he’s a good run stopper and graded out above average overall last season. That middle linebacker job was just a two-down role last season because the Cardinals would drop a safety down to the box in sub packages, rather than using a 2^nd linebacker. They love doing that type of thing and they have the safety depth to continue doing so, which means that the other middle linebacker position could easily remain a two-down role, which is perfect for Minter. Another option the Cardinals have is to line Daryl Washington up on the edge in some obvious passing downs, as he’s been a strong pass rusher thus far in his career, primarily as a blitzer. It’s a weak linebacking corps overall, but one that is better because of Lenon’s retirement.

Grade: C

Secondary

I mentioned how deep the Cardinals’ are at the safety position. Last season, they had 4 different safeties play at least 438 snaps and 3 different safeties play at least 697 snaps. Ironically, the safety who played the fewest might be the best, as Tyrann Mathieu was limited last season by injuries, including recovery from a late 2013 ACL tear. He graded out above average last season in limited action and, only going into his age 23 season, close to 2 years removed from the injury, Mathieu has a very good chance to bounce back to what he was as a 3^rd round rookie in 2013, when he was an every down player and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked cornerback, splitting snaps between safety in base packages and cornerback in sub package. With Antonio Cromartie leaving as a free agent unreplaced at cornerback (more on that later), Mathieu should continue in that hybrid role in 2015.

At the other safety spot in base packages, Rashad Johnson was the starter last season and played every snap of the season except 8 as a traditional safety. The problem is Johnson was horrible, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 77^th ranked safety out of 87 eligible. He’s been better in the past, but he’s always been a part-time player, maxing out at 643 snaps played in 2013, before last year’s career high. He should move into a situational role again this season, with 2014 1^st round pick Deone Bucannon moving into the every down starting role.

Bucannon struggled as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 80^th ranked safety out of 87 eligible. However, that’s because he wasn’t really used properly, seeing 98.2% of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, easily most among eligible safeties, effectively spending the vast maority of his time as a linebacker. As a result, he struggled mightily against the run and as a pass rusher, as he weirdly had 109 pass rush snaps and predictably had trouble getting into the backfield. In coverage, he was just about average. In his 2^nd year, in the league in a role that’s still hybrid, but that plays the 6-1 208 pounder as a traditional safety more often, Bucannon should have a better season.

In this scenario with Bucannon starting next to Mathieu, Johnson and Tony Jefferson would come in during sub packages when Bucannon and Mathieu move to linebacker and cornerback respectively. Jefferson was an undrafted free agent in 2013, but has been a pleasant surprise through two seasons in the league. After flashing on 202 snaps as a rookie, he graded out just slightly below average in a bigger role on 697 snaps in 2014. He should continue being a solid-part time player.

As I mentioned, the Cardinals lost Antonio Cromartie as a free agent this off-season and didn’t really replace him, suggesting they want Mathieu to play more cornerback this season. That pushes Jerraud Powers back into a starting role. That’s not a problem. For one thing, while Cromartie started last season well, he struggled down the stretch with an ankle problem and ended up grading out slightly below average on the season. On top of that, Powers is plenty experienced and a solid player. The 2009 3^rd round pick made 58 starts from 2009-2013 and graded out above average in 3 of 5 seasons. Even last season, as the “#3” cornerback, he played 761 snaps and graded out about average. Only going into his age 28 season, he’s a solid starter.

Patrick Peterson will be the other starter and he’s made 64 of 64 starts since the Cardinals drafted him 5^th overall in 2011. Peterson is believed by many to be one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, up there with Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman, but he certainly didn’t play that well last season, grading out below average and finishing 3^rd in touchdowns allowed (8) and 4^th in penalties committed (13) among cornerbacks. Peterson says last year’s struggles were the result of undiagnosed diabetes, which makes a lot of sense. He says he has it under control right now, something he’ll have to prove on the field. Only going into his age 25 season, having graded out 16^th and 14^th among cornerbacks in 2012 and 2013 respectively, Peterson’s bounce back chances are good. He headlines a secondary that is still strong and deep despite the loss of Cromartie.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

As I mentioned, the Cardinals should have a better offense this season, thanks to a healthier Carson Palmer, a healthier Andre Ellington, and an improved offensive line. Defensively, they lost Antonio Cromartie, Sam Acho, Tommy Kelly, and Dan Williams, as well as their incredible defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, but they get Tyrann Mathieu back healthy for a whole season, hopefully will get something from Daryl Washington, should get a bounce back year from Patrick Peterson and add guys like Sean Weatherspoon, Corey Peters, and Cory Redding.

They won’t be as good defensively this season, but they could be a more talented overall team than last season, especially down the stretch when they had so many injuries. The problem is they won’t be as lucky as they were last season in other aspects, including turnovers, return touchdowns, close games, and converting on big chunk plays. They’ll probably be better than the 17^th they finished in rate of moving the chains last season, but I don’t see it translating to more wins on the field, or even another playoff spot. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Cardinals after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in NFC West

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St. Louis Rams 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 14, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Rams have been a mediocre team over the past decade or so, not winning more than 8 games in 11 straight seasons, but winning between 6 and 8 games in 7 of those 11 seasons. They’ve never been very good, but they haven’t been bad either, seemingly always a piece away. After a 2-14 2009 season, the Rams used the 1^st overall pick in 2010 on Sam Bradford, but the results have of the Sam Bradford era never really showed up in the win column, as the Rams won 6 or 7 games in 4 of 5 seasons, but never any more than that.

The Rams, at least in my opinion, have their most hope in years going into this season though. The Rams were mediocre in 2014 again, going 6-10 and finishing 22^nd in rate of moving the chains differential. However, their problems were primarily on the offensive side of the ball, where they ranked 25^th in rate of moving the chains. Their defense, on the other hand, ranked 5^th in opponent rate of moving the chains differential. The defense should continue to be good in 2015 and the offense has a real chance to take a leap forward this season.

The biggest reason for that is they should have noticeably better quarterback play this season. The Rams’ 2014 season took a big hit before it even started as Sam Bradford tore his ACL, leaving the veteran Shaun Hill (who hadn’t played regularly since 2010) and Austin Davis, n 2012 undrafted free agent, to split starts for the Rams last season. They combined to complete 63.5% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions and graded out 26^th and 29^th respectively among 39 eligible quarterbacks.

Sam Bradford won’t be back in St. Louis this season, as the Rams traded him to Philadelphia for quarterback Nick Foles, improving their draft position in the process, moving up from the 5^th round to the 4^th round in 2015 and adding a 2^nd round pick in 2016. It was a smart move by the Rams as they not only improved their draft position, but also upgraded the quarterback position, sending off a quarterback who has missed 31 games in 5 seasons, including the last 25 straight with a twice torn ACL, and who has only completed 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions in his career.

Foles will be the new quarterback and he’s completed 61.6% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 46 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions since the Eagles drafted him in the 3^rd round in 2012. Foles is a one year wonder who had by far the best season of his career in 2013, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. As good as his numbers looked that season, he only ranked 17^th among quarterbacks, suggesting much of his production was a result of the system and offensive supporting talent. In his other 2 seasons, he’s graded out below average, 31^st out of 38 eligible in 2012 and 25^th out of 39 eligible in 2014. In Philadelphia, he always had a strong supporting cast offensively and a good offensive system, especially over the past 2 seasons with Chip Kelly. Life won’t be as easy for him in St. Louis.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

The Rams used the 10^th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft on some offensive supporting cast help for Foles, as many expected them to. However, it wasn’t the position many expected. Instead of using the pick on a wide receiver like Devante Parker or an offensive lineman like Andrus Peat, the Rams opted for running back Todd Gurley. It was a weird move because the offensive line and wide receiver positions were both big needs, while Tre Mason did a solid job at running back as a 3^rd round rookie in 2014 and seemed worthy as being the lead back in 2015. Gurley is also likely to miss the first month of the season after tearing his ACL last fall at the University of Georgia. The Rams are banking on Gurley, who some called the next Adrian Peterson, living up to his potential.

As a rookie, he’s unlikely to make much of an impact. Even once he’s able to return from his ACL tear, it would be unfair to expect him to be anything close to his potential, especially since he’ll be a rookie. He’s unlikely to have his breakout year until 2016 or beyond. Mason will be the lead back in Gurley’s absence and the primary backup upon his return. As a rookie, he rushed for 765 yards and 4 touchdowns on 179 carries (4.27 YPC) and added 16 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. Benny Cunningham will be the #3 back, the #2 back in Gurley’s absence. He’s a 2012 undrafted free agent who has rushed for 507 yards and 4 touchdowns on 113 carries, a solid 4.49 YPC. The Rams were pretty set at running back going into the draft so they have to hope that Gurley can become a transcendent player.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Rams have problems on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. Those two units certainly are not what Foles was used to in Philadelphia. The Rams’ offensive line finished 27^th in team pass blocking grade and 23^rd in team run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus last season. The Rams lost 4 players who combined for 52 starts on the offensive line in 2014 this off-season, Jake Long (7 starts), Scott Wells (16 starts), Davin Joseph (13 starts), and Joe Barksdale (16 starts). That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as Wells was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked center last season and Joseph finished 75^th out of 78 eligible guards. However, Barksdale was decent last season, as was Long, before an ACL tear that put his career in jeopardy. Besides, the players the Rams brought in to replace those players aren’t necessarily upgrades.

Greg Robinson remains from last season and he’ll move over to Long’s old spot at left tackle, which was the ultimate plan when the Rams drafted him 2^nd overall in 2014. Robinson had a brutal rookie year though, grading out below average in 3 early season starts at guard and then really struggling in the final 9 games of the season at left tackle, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 78^th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible on just 559 snaps. From week 9 on at left tackle, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked offensive tackle. Only going into his age 23 season, the Rams are hoping that Robinson turns it around in a hurry on the blindside.

Rodger Saffold returns at left guard, where he made 12 starts last season (3 at right guard and 1 at left tackle). He graded out just below average on the first year of a 5-year, 31.347 million dollar deal. Saffold is versatile, making starts at left tackle (37 starts), right tackle (2 starts), left guard (12 starts), and right guard (9 starts) in 5 years in the league, since getting drafted in the 2^nd round in 2010. However, he’s graded out below average in 2 of 5 seasons and has missed 17 games in 5 seasons with injury. Saffold made all 16 starts in 2014 for the first time since his rookie year and, with the amount of money they gave committed to him long-term, the Rams are hoping that becomes a trend. Even if it does, he’s unlikely to quite live up to his contract.

Saffold is the only experienced projected starter on the St. Louis offensive line this season, other than maybe Robinson, depending on how you define experienced. At center, right guard, and right tackle, the Rams will have 3 new starters and none of their options are proven. 2^nd round rookie Rob Havenstein is expected to start at right tackle. Another rookie could be starting at right guard, either 3^rd round pick Jaron Brown or 4^th round rookie Andrew Donnal.

Also in the mix at right guard are Brandon Washington, a 2012 6^th round pick who has played 17 career snaps, and Barrett Jones, a 2013 4^th round pick who has played 23 career snaps. Jones will also compete at center with Tim Barnes, a 2011 undrafted free agent with 282 career snaps. The most likely lineup will have Jones at center, Brown at right guard, and Havenstein at right tackle, but whatever the lineup is, it won’t be what Foles was used to in Philadelphia. It also won’t help their running game much in Gurley’s rookie year. It’s one of the worst offensive lines in football.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

Things are better in the receiving corps, but there are still problems. Kenny Britt led the team with 748 receiving yards, which sadly were the most by a Rams receiver since 2008. Kenny Britt has definitely had an interesting career trajectory, for better or worse. The 2009 1st round pick looked on his way to a promising career in 2010 and 2011. After averaging 1.86 yards per route run as a rookie in 2009, Britt averaged an absurd 3.07 yards per route run in 2010 and 2011, catching a combined 59 passes for 1064 yards and 12 touchdowns on a combined 347 routes run. However, a good as he was in 2010 and 2011, he only played a combined 15 games thanks to multiple injuries, including a torn ACL that derailed his career big in a big way.

Upon his return from that torn ACL in 2012, he averaged just 1.49 yards per route run in 14 games, after starting the season with a 1 game suspension as a result of a checkered off-the-field history that includes 9 arrests. He was noticeably slowed by surgeries to both of his knees. In 2013, his final year in Tennessee, he was a train wreck. Britt was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked wide receiver, despite playing just 305 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. He only caught a third of his 33 targets, with 11 catches for 96 yards and he dropped 7 passes. He averaged just 0.48 yards per route run on 201 routes run. He was the definition of awful and also got into it with his coaches.

That’s why he had to settle for a minimum deal in free agency last season, rejoining ex-head coach Jeff Fisher in St. Louis, where he was able to bounce back. He caught 48 of 81 targets (59.3%) for 748 yards and 3 touchdowns on 468 routes run, an average of 1.60 yards per route run. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 35^th ranked wide receiver, above average. It’s hard to trust Britt, but he should be able to remain a solid receiver this season. He’ll never be the receiver he looked on to his way becoming early in his career, but, as long as he stays out of trouble, he should be an asset in a weak receiving corps. The Rams re-signed him to a 2-year, 9.15 million dollar deal worth up to 14 million in incentives this off-season.

Brian Quick was on his way to a solid season as well, catching 24 passes for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns during the first 6 games of the season, before going down for the year week 8, needing shoulder surgery. The 2012 2^nd round pick should be a starter again in 2015 in a make or break 4^th year in the league and also a contract year. With Foles coming in, Quick could put up solid numbers if he stays healthy, as could Kenny Britt, but, like Britt, he’s not a #1 caliber receiver, something they could have found at #10 overall.

The Rams drafted Tavon Austin 8^th overall in 2013 to be the #1 receiver, but he’s really disappointed thus far in 2 years in the league. As a rookie in 2013, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 81^st ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible in pass catching grade on 434 snaps and then 100^th out of 110 eligible in pass catching grade on 552 snaps in 2014. He’s caught just 71 passes for 660 yards and 4 touchdowns in 28 career games. He does add value on the ground, grading out above average in that aspect in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, rushing for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns on 45 career attempts. He also adds value on special teams. But he hasn’t nearly been worth the 8^th overall pick and, while it’s too early to declare him a bust, his career seems to be heads in that direction unless he can establish himself as a receiver. His best shot of doing that would be on the slot.

Even on the slot, I’m not so sure that Austin can hold off Stedman Bailey for the #3 job this off-season. Bailey, a 2013 3^rd round pick, has graded out above average in each of the two seasons he’s been in the league, including on 420 snaps last season. He caught 30 passes for 435 yards and a touchdown in 14 games, the majority of which came after Quick got hurt. Austin’s teammate at West Virginia, Bailey doesn’t have Austin’s blazing speed and he’s not big either at 5-10 193, but he’s at least shown the requisite strength to play on offense in the NFL, something that’s eluded the 5-8 174 pound Austin thus far in his career. Realistically, I think they give Austin one more shot and Bailey starts the season backing up all 3 receiver spots.

The Rams will also use a fair amount of two-tight end sets again this season, after Jared Cook played 706 and Lance Kendricks played 613 last season. Kendricks is the #2 tight end, but he got paid pretty well this off-season, re-signing on a 4-year, 18.5 million dollar deal. Considering he played 588 snaps in 2013 (33^rd among tight ends) and 613 snaps in 2014 (27^th among tight ends) as the “#2” tight end, the money makes some sense, but the problem is he’s a marginal talent, grading out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the NFL since getting drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011.

Jared Cook will return as the starting tight end, going into the 3^rd year of a 5-year, 35.11 million dollar deal. Cook was Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked tight end last season, a career best, but he’s never been bad either, always grading out above average, average, or slightly below average throughout his 6-year NFL career. After posting 51/657/5 and 52/634/3 slash lines throughout his first 2 seasons in St. Louis, despite shoddy quarterback play, Cook stands to see a boost in production with Foles coming in, which should be the case throughout the offense. The problem is the offensive supporting cast is still really lacking around Foles. While Cook is a solid player, if he’s arguably your best offensive player, it’s not a good offense. If the Rams are going to make the playoffs this season, their defense is going to have to come up big once again.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

The Rams went from 23^rd in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2013 to 5^th in 2014, a big part of the reason why there’s a ton of hope for them in 2015. It’s not fair to suggest any one player or change was responsible for the Rams’ improved defense, but one player who had a huge impact was rookie Aaron Donald, the 14^th overall pick and eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year. I thought Khalil Mack should have been Defensive Rookie of the Year, but I love Mack and Donald is only slightly behind him in my book. Like Mack, he ranked #1 at his position on Pro Football Focus, doing so at defensive tackle. Reminiscent of a pre-injury Geno Atkins, Donald dropped to the 14^th overall pick only because of his height at 6-1 288. That hasn’t been an issue. He’s got a great future.

The Rams were without highly paid defensive end Chris Long for much of last season as he missed 10 games with injury. Long not only missed significant time with injury, but he wasn’t himself even when on the field for most of the season, as the injury happened 31 snaps into Long’s season. In the final 5 games of the season, after Long’s return, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 defensive end from week 13 through week 17. Only going into his age 30 season, Long should bounce back to form, especially since he had never missed a game with injury in 6 seasons prior to last season.

However, it’s important to note that the form he should bounce back to is not quite the form that the 43 sacks he had from 2010-2013 would suggest. While Long is a feared pass rusher, grading out 7^th, 4^th, 7^th, and 7^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2010-2013 respectively, he’s never graded out above average against the run, including a 3-year stretch from 2010-2012 where he was in the bottom-3 among 4-3 defensive ends against the run in every season. Long actually graded out below average in his last healthy season in 2013. He should be a situational player at this point in his career and could easily be going into his final season in St. Louis, owed an 11.75 million non-guaranteed in 2016.

In his absence, William Hayes was actually an upgrade because he’s more of a complete player, grading out above average as a pass rusher and a run stopper and finishing the season as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 4-3 defensive end. Hayes isn’t a one year wonder either, grading out above average in 5 of 7 pro seasons, including three straight. Prior to last season, Hayes was Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked 4-3 defensive and 8^th ranked 4-3 defensive end on 378 and 354 snaps respectively and in 2012 and 2013 respectively. He should continue to see more snaps in 2015, especially in obvious running situations and base packages, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked 4-3 defensive end against the run last season.

Robert Quinn will be the other starter on the outside of the Rams’ 4-man defensive line. Quinn, a 2011 1^st round pick, lived up to his massive potential in 2013. After grading out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the NFL, the 2011 14^th overall pick had the best defensive season in the NFL in 2013, aside from maybe JJ Watt. Quinn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 defensive end by a wide margin, thanks in large part to his 19 sacks and 21 hits.

He couldn’t repeat it in 2014, but few can and, after grading out 10^th at his position last season, it’s now clear that Quinn is not a one-year wonder. Only going into his age 25 season, Quinn is one of the best defensive players in the NFL and him alongside Aaron Donald is even deadlier. The other good news about Long returning is that Eugene Sims won’t play a prominent role again this season, after grading well out below average in each of his first 5 seasons in the NFL, since the Rams took him in the 6^th round in 2010. He’ll be the 4^th defensive end at best this season. The Rams go legitimately 3-deep at defensive end, more so than any other team in the league.

The same can basically be said about the Rams’ defensive tackles. I already mentioned Donald’s dominant rookie year. He’ll play alongside a duo of Michael Brockers and free agent signing Nick Fairley. Brockers was a 1^st round pick in 2012 and made 16 starts for the Rams last season. He hasn’t developed as a pass rusher the way the Rams would have liked, but the 6-5 322 pounder has graded out above average against the run in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league. That includes a 2014 season where he graded out above average for the first time in his career.

Brockers will continue to start for the Rams in base packages this season, but will cede more snaps to backup Nick Fairley than he did to ex-backup Kendall Langford, who played 494 snaps last season, before signing in Indianapolis this off-season. Fairley will technically replace Langford, but he also represents a large upgrade and someone capable of playing a much bigger role, especially on passing downs.

Fairley has been a frustrating player during his 4 year career. He went 13th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season.

That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps and he was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked defensive tackle through 7 weeks before the injury. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. However, the one-year prove it deal (worth 5 million) the Rams signed him to this off-season has the best chance to get his elite upside out of him because it’ll keep him motivated. He’ll work in rotation with Brockers and can be a dominant player on 500-600 snaps this season. It’s an absolutely loaded defensive line.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Rams also have an outside linebacker who can rush the passer off the edge if needed. It probably won’t be needed behind Quinn, Long, and Hayes, but it’s nice to have Akeem Ayers’ versatility. Besides, Ayers, who signed for just 6 million over 2 years this off-season, is a fantastic run stopper in base packages. He’s graded out above average as a run stopper in all 4 seasons of his career, at both 4-3 and 3-4 outside linebacker, including 5^th among 4-3 outside linebackers against the run in 2013. In addition to being able to rush the passer decently in sub packages, he can also cover decently in sub packages, but Ayers probably won’t be doing much of that this season either.

James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree will be the two every down linebackers, with Ayers playing situationally, serving as a significant upgrade on JoLonn Dunbar, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible last season on just 432 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse at the position. Unfortunately, Laurinaitis and Ogletree weren’t much better as they also graded out below average last season. This is nothing new for them as Ogletree has graded out below average in each of his 2 seasons in the league, since the Rams drafted him in the 1^st round in 2013. Laurinaitis, meanwhile, has graded out below average in 3 straight seasons since signing a 5-year, 41.5 million dollar extension. The Rams’ linebackers are not nearly as good as their defensive linemen.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Another big reason why the Rams had an improved defense last season is because they had an improved secondary, thanks to some breakout years from young players. That includes both of their safeties, TJ McDonald and Rodney McLeod, who both graded out above average last season and started all 16 games each. McDonald and McLeod also complement each other well. The 6-2 219 pound McDonald graded out above against the run, but below average in coverage and played with 8 yards of the line of scrimmage on 65.8% of snaps, 7^th most in the NFL among safeties. Meanwhile, the 5-11 183 McLeod graded out above average in coverage, but below average against the run, and played just 6.3% of snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, the lowest percentage in the NFL among safeties.

It’s important to remember that both are still one year wonders. McDonald was Pro Football Focus’ 76^th ranked safety out of 86 eligible in 2013 as a 3^rd round rookie, while missing 6 games with injury. McLeod also struggled in 2013, making all 16 starts, but grading out 75^th out of 86 eligible safeties in the first significant action of the 2012 undrafted free agent’s career (he played 3 snaps as a rookie). Both players seem to have bright futures, but this is important to remember.

At cornerback, the breakout star was 6^th round rookie EJ Gaines, who, despite his draft status, was able to take advantage of some injuries and lead Ram cornerbacks with 964 snaps played, making all 15 starts before missing week 17 with injury. The rookie was Pro Football Focus’ 29^th ranked cornerback and showed the ability to play both outside and inside on the slot. Like McDonald and McLeod, he’s a one-year wonder. That trio might not all match their 2014 season in 2015, but they’re all young so it’s possible one of them is even better next season.

The Rams’ other two cornerbacks, Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, are also young, as both come from the 2012 class (2^nd and 3^rd round respectively), which means both are heading into their contract years right now. Jenkins has made 43 starts in 3 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in all 3 seasons. However, he’s been better since a rough rookie year and has only graded out slightly below average over the past 2 seasons. Johnson, meanwhile, flashed as a rookie, grading out above average on 366 snaps, but has also graded out slightly below average over the past 2 seasons as he’s started taking on a bigger role. He also missed 7 games with injury to start last season, which is how Gaines was able to get his chance. Both are decent young cornerbacks, but not much else. It’s a solid, but unspectacular secondary.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Rams have been frustrating close to breaking through over the past few years. This could be their breakout year, but it also could be another disappointing year. Nick Foles represents an upgrade on Shaun Hill and Austin Davis, but he doesn’t really have much of any offensive supporting cast. They should be better this season offensively and their defense has a good chance to be strong again, but them being a top-5 unit again largely relies on a bunch of young, unproven players to match or improve upon career best year’s, including Aaron Donald, who played otherworldly last season. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Rams after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 6-10 3rd in NFC West

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San Francisco 49ers 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 14, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick burst onto the scene in 2012. A 2011 2^nd round pick, Kaepernick played well enough in a spot start in relief of an injured Alex Smith that he got Smith, who was leading the NFL in completion percentage at that point, benched and proceeded to start the rest of the season, easily head coach Jim Harbaugh’s most controversial decision in San Francisco, but also his most signature decision. Kaepernick started the final 7 games of the regular season plus three playoff games en route to a Super Bowl loss in which they were a few yards away from winning. Kaepernick finished the 2012 season with a combined 62.1% completion, 8.77 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions between the playoffs and regular season, while rushing for 679 yards and 8 touchdowns on 88 carries (7.72 YPC). Smith was traded to Kansas City for a pair of 2^nd rounders and Kaepernick was the undisputed starter going into 2013.

The 2013 season was more of the same. The 49ers didn’t return to the Super Bowl, but made the NFC Championship for the 3^rd year in a row, losing a close one in Seattle. Kaepernick completed 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 524 yards and 4 touchdowns on 92 carries (5.70 YPC). Of course, all good things must come to an end and the hype train about Colin Kaepernick being the next big thing came to a crashing halt over the past year or so.

Kaepernick became much more expensive, signing a 6-year, 126 million dollar extension ahead of a 2014 contract year, which inevitably came with more responsibility and greater expectations. The 49ers would not be able to keep all of their talent under the cap long-term with Kaepernick’s contract eating up so much of the cap and, after 3 straight fantastic seasons that failed to yield a Super Bowl ring, the 49ers’ championship window seemed to be getting tighter in a hurry.

A year later, that window seems to be shut. The 49ers went 8-8 in Kaepernick’s first season on the extension. Kaepernick gets a lot of the blame, rightfully so coming off of down season performance wise, but the reality is that Kaepernick was just what he always was, an average to above average quarterback that can win the Super Bowl, but needs help, the kind of guy you have to pay top quarterback money to keep, even though he’s not necessarily a top quarterback. Kaepernick completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.05 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 639 yards and 1 touchdown on 104 carries (6.14 YPC). Those were similar to his career numbers, as he’s completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, while rushing for 1576 yards and 10 touchdowns on 261 carries (6.04 YPC) in his career. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15^th, 18^th, and 28^th ranked quarterback in 3 seasons as a starter.

The fact that he hasn’t really progressed as a pocket passer, particularly in terms of his accuracy, is concerning and the flaws that dropped him to the 2^nd round are still present and probably permanent at this point, as he heads into his 5^th year in the league, his age 28 season. But the biggest issue with San Francisco isn’t Kaepernick; it’s that they don’t have the dominant supporting cast around him anymore. And how that supporting cast deteriorated so fast is the particularly fascinating part of this team.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Last season, the problem for the 49ers was injuries as they finished with the 5^th most adjusted games lost in the NFL. And even that doesn’t tell the whole story as that doesn’t take into account that Aldon Smith missed 9 games with suspension and that the players they lost to injuries weren’t all just average starters. Smith is their best pass rusher and Patrick Willis (10 games missed) and NaVorro Bowman (16 games missed) were among the best middle linebackers in the NFL.

The 49ers should have fewer injuries this year, but, that being said, that won’t necessarily translate into the win column. The 49ers finished last season 21^st in rate of moving the chains differential, even worse than their 8-8 record would have suggested, and it’s hard to argue that the 2015 49ers, when healthy, are more talented than the 2014 49ers were last year, even with all the injuries. The 49ers had an off-season full of losses on both sides of the field and at head coach, as Jim Harbaugh left for the University of Michigan, leaving first time head coach (minus one interim start in 2010) Jim Tomsula in charge.

Say what you want about Jim Harbaugh’s big personality clashing with management and sometimes players, but there’s no denying he’s an amazing offensive mind who injected life into this franchise and that he’ll be sorely missed, especially on the offensive end. Jim Tomsula, while well liked, is strictly a defensive minded coach and the top offensive mind on the staff is Geep Chryst, who has very limited experience as a playcaller. It won’t help Kaepernick’s development that he’ll be learning a new offense for the first time in his career, coming off of the worst season of his career.

Meanwhile, some of those players who suffered injuries last season will not return this year because they’ve retired. Right tackle Anthony Davis is one of them. One of four 49er starters from 2014 to retire this off-season, Davis’ retirement might be the most interesting of them. Davis was limited to 7 games by injury in 2014 and graded out below average, but he graded out 9^th in 2012 and 29^th in 2013, so he was still a player that could have helped them this season. Even more interesting is Davis, a former 1^st round pick, was only going into his age 26 season and was scheduled to make 3.65 million.

Davis says he’s just giving himself a year for his mind and body to recover and he did suffer a serious concussion in 2014. That suggests he could be back in 2016 ready to pick up where he left off under the same contract. I’m inclined to believe that story, but that doesn’t help them in 2015. Davis was smart waiting until after the draft to announce this so the 49ers couldn’t draft his replacement and his job would still be there in 2016, but that really leaves the 49ers in a pickle. That’s what makes Davis’ retirement so interesting.

Jonathan Martin started at right tackle in Davis’ absence last season, but he was awful, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 61^st ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible, which got him waived this off-season, so he isn’t even there anymore. In his absence, it’ll likely be veteran Erik Pears, with 7^th round rookie Trent Brown as the backup. That’s not good news because Pears is not a starting caliber player in the NFL anymore. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 76^th ranked guard out of 78 eligible last season and is going into his age 33 season. Borderline unworthy of a 53-man roster, Pears represents a steep downgrade on Davis. He’s one of the worst starters in the NFL.

The 49ers could and should look for alternatives on the open market, as the rookie probably isn’t ready, but Davis coincidentally also waited until after Joseph Barksdale left the open market, leaving the right tackle market very thin. The 49ers could also move either right guard Alex Boone to right tackle or left guard Brandon Thomas to right tackle. However, Boone is a solid right guard so they might not want to mess with something that works, while Thomas has still never played a snap in the NFL. Besides, either of those two moving outside would force either Joe Looney or Marcus Martin to start at guard and both of those two players were horrible last season.

The most likely scenario is that Pears or a free agent starts at right tackle, with Thomas and Boone starting at left guard and right guard respectively. Thomas hasn’t played an NFL snap, going in the 3^rd round in 2014 and missing his whole rookie year with a torn ACL, but, if not for the ACL tear, he would have likely been a first round pick. He’ll replace Mike Iupati, who was Pro Football Focus’14^th ranked guard in 2014 and who signed a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Cardinals this off-season. Thomas is unproven, but there is upside here with a first round talent. A collegiate offensive tackle, he’s a better fit inside at guard in the NFL.

Boone, meanwhile, is much more experienced. He hasn’t been as good as he was in his first year as a starter, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked guard in 2012, but he’s been solid, grading out 39^th in 2013 and 18^th in 2014. On top of that, he’s made 46 out of 48 starts over the past 3 seasons combined (one of which was at left tackle), after the 2009 undrafted free agent was able to get over early career alcohol problems that dated back to his time at Ohio State. Another collegiate offensive tackle who is a better fit at guard in the NFL, Boone is the 49ers 2^nd best offensive lineman.

At center, it’ll be a battle between Daniel Kilgore and Marcus Martin. Kilgore should win the job, but Martin, a 2014 3^rd round pick, was drafted to be the starter at this point. Kilgore won the starting job over Martin when he was a rookie last year, but he proved to be better than just a stopgap, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked center, despite being limited to 463 snaps in 7 games by injuries. Through week 7, prior to his injury, Kilgore was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked center. Martin took over and finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 36^th ranked center out of 41 eligible. From week 8 on, he ranked 33^rd out of 35 eligible centers, a steep drop-off from Kilgore. Kilgore, assuming he’s healthy, should be the week 1 starter again. Inexperienced with 7 career starts since going into the 5^th round in 2011, Kilgore has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the NFL. His return will help this line.

The only offensive lineman who is locked into a position right now is left tackle Joe Staley, who fortunately remains as one of the best offensive linemen in football. A remainder of their previously dominant seasons, Staley is just one of 4 players on either side of the ball that are starters now that were also starters in 2011 (Vernon Davis, Ahmad Brooks, and NaVorro Bowman are the other 3). A 2007 1^st round pick, Staley has started 114 games over the past 8 seasons, grading out above average in every season except 2010. Since 2012, Staley has graded out 1^st, 5^th, and 4^th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, the only offensive tackle in the league to finish in the top-5 in 3 straight seasons. Even going into his age 31 season, he’s one of the best offensive tackles in the game. He’s the saving grace of a crumbling offensive line.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Not only do the 2015 49ers have just 4 starters in common with the 2011 team, but they actually have 2 starters at wide receiver in common with the 2012 Ravens team that beat them in the Super Bowl, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. I guess if you can’t beat them, sign them. Smith was their big free agent acquisition this off-season and he’ll actually be an upgrade over the departed Michael Crabtree (who graded out 95^th out of 110 eligible wide receivers last off-season), but the 49ers did overpay him on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal. The 49ers would have been better off keeping Crabtree on a cheap 1-year deal (he signed with the Raiders for 3 million) and using that money to re-sign Mike Iupati or add at another position.

Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in 4 seasons. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league. The 49ers are playing too much money for someone of Smith’s skill set as he’s more of a complementary receiver than a #1 guy.

He’ll be the #1A receiver to Anquan Boldin’s #1B (or vice versa), much like was the case in Baltimore. The problem is that Boldin is now several years older than he was when he played in Baltimore, going into his age 35 season. The 49ers are putting a lot of faith in an aging receiver. He’s been very productive in two seasons in San Francisco, topping 1000+ yards in both seasons and totaling a combined 168 catches for 2241 yards and 12 touchdowns, all at the price of a 6^th round pick and 12 million dollars over 2 years (he’ll take home another 6 million this season, in the final year of his current contract). Boldin has had a fantastic career and could be eventually bound for the Hall of Fame, with 12,406 receiving yards currently, 19^th all-time.

However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Boldin may have had his last 1000+ yard season ever in 2014 and could easily see his abilities fall off a cliff in his contract year in 2015. That’s not good news, especially with how thin the 49ers are at wide receiver, after losing #3 receiver Steve Johnson this off-season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked wide receiver on just 305 snaps last season, averaging 2.14 yards per route run, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the wide receiver position.

With Johnson and fellow veteran Brandon Lloyd gone, it’ll be a 3-way battle for the #3 job between Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington, and DeAndre Smelter. Patton is a 2013 4^th round pick who has played 151 underwhelming career snaps, while Ellington is a 2014 4^th round pick, grading out slightly above average on 96 snaps as a rookie. Smelter, a 4^th round rookie, is a long-shot at this point. Whoever wins that battle, it’ll be tough to count on them to be as productive as Johnson was last season. Also, if Boldin’s abilities fall off a cliff or either Boldin or Smith suffer an injury, whoever wins that battle will be tough to trust in a larger role.

Without much depth at wide receiver, the 49ers could opt to use a bunch of two-tight end sets this season. However, despite the fact that they’ve put a lot of resources into the tight end position, the 49ers aren’t very good there. The 49ers kept Vernon Davis this off-season, even though he was scheduled to make a non-guaranteed 4.9 million and even though he was coming off of a career worst season, out of desperation at the position.

Not only was Davis’ 2014 26/245/2 slash line his worst production since his rookie year in 2006, but he also struggled as a run blocker, an area he’s generally been very good in. Davis had that minimal production despite 47 targets (55.3% catch rate) and 417 routes run (0.59 yards per route run) and was Pro Football Focus’ 62nd ranked tight end out of 67 eligible. The 49ers are banking on a bounce back year (he graded out above average in every season from 2010-2014), but, in his age 31 season, Davis might not be able to deliver.

Vance McDonald, a 2013 2^nd round pick, is going to be the #2 tight end again. McDonald hasn’t shown anything as a pass catcher in two years in the league, catching 10 passes in 23 games and grading out below average in both seasons as a pass catcher, but the 6-4 267 pounder is a phenomenal run blocker, grading out above average in that aspect in both seasons in the NFL. He only played 218 snaps in 2014, but he would have graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked run blocking tight end if he were eligible. He should have a bigger role in 2015 in a make or break 3^rd season for the youngster. The 49ers would obviously really like him to come around as a pass catcher, but there are no guarantees he ever develops into anything more than a 6^th offensive lineman.

The 49ers also use a fullback a fair amount as fullback Bruce Miller played 473 snaps last season, most in the NFL by a fullback. He graded out 3^rd at his position, adding 18 catches for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns, and has graded out 10^th, 7^th, 5^th, and 3^rd in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively, since being drafted in the 5^th round in 2011. The problem is he could be facing a suspension after domestic violence, though his spousal abuse charges did get dropped to misdemeanor vandalism. The 49ers also used a 4^th round pick on Blake Bell, a collegiate quarterback turned tight end, but he probably won’t have a big role until 2016 at the earliest. It’s a weak and thin receiving corps beyond Smith and Boldin.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Another starter the 49ers lost this off-season was Frank Gore, who signed with the Colts on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. Frank Gore had a fantastic 10-year run with the 49ers, rushing for 11,073 yards and 64 touchdowns on 2442 carries, playing all but 12 games at one of the most physical positions in the NFL. He added 342 catches for 2883 yards and another 11 scores through the air, while being one of the best pass protecting running backs and one of the best teammates in the NFL. He was everything the 49ers could have asked out of the 2005 3rd round pick, talented, complete, durable, and a great teammate. His rushing yards rank 20th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. He’s definitely bound for the 49ers’ Ring of Honor.

However, all good things must come to an end. Gore is going into his age 32 season with 2442 carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He might not have looked it last year, but he’s close to the end. The 49ers were wise to move into the future at the position, rather than signing him to a multi-year deal with 7.5 million guaranteed like the Colts.

In his absence, the 49ers will use a committee at running back, with 2014 2^nd round pick Carlos Hyde as the clear lead back. Hyde rushed for 333 yards and a touchdown on 83 carries (4.01 YPC) as a rookie as Gore’s primary backup, grading out above average as a runner, but below average in the passing game, an issue he’s had dating back to his collegiate days at Ohio State (34 career catches in 3 seasons). He’s definitely unproven as an NFL player, but he was drafted with this situation in mind.

To help mask Hyde’s deficiencies as a pass down player, the 49ers signed the veteran Reggie Bush to be the primary passing down back. Bush came cheaper than Gore, 2.5 million over 1 year, but he’s not nearly as good. Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) in 11 games and caught 40 passes for 253 yards.

Aging and injury prone throughout his career, Bush could be pushed for his role by 4^th round rookie Mike Davis or Kendall Hunter, who will also compete to be Hyde’s primary backup. Hunter, a 2011 4^th round pick, has rushed for 1202 yards and 7 touchdowns on 262 career carries (4.59 YPC), adding 27 catches for 268 yards. He missed all of last season with a torn ACL though and isn’t built to be a feature back at 5-7 199. Davis is obviously less proven, but built better at 5-9 217 and caught 66 passes in his final 2 seasons at South Carolina combined.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the 49ers had 4 players retire this off-season, 3 of whom were defensive starters last season. On the defensive line, the 49ers lost Justin Smith to retirement, though that should not have been seen as a surprise as he was going into his age 36 season. Still, it’s a big loss because Smith proved last season that he could still play, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 16 starts. Also gone is Ray McDonald, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 14 starts last season, before being released late in the season, following rape allegations.

In their absence, the trio of Tank Carradine, Arik Armstead, and Darnell Dockett will rotate at the position. Carradine and Armstead are both very athletic and have huge upsides, but neither one of them is proven. Carradine was a 2013 2^nd round pick and would have been a lock 1^st rounder if he hadn’t torn his ACL late in his final collegiate season. Carradine sat out his whole rookie season with that ACL tear and then played just 146 snaps as a deep reserve last season. He’s completely unproven and entering a make or break 3^rd season in the league. Armstead, meanwhile, was their first round pick in this past draft and the rookie is incredibly raw. He has athleticism and upside, but his production and tape at the University of Oregon do not suggest someone that should have been a 1^st round pick.

Armstead might spend his rookie year behind the veteran Dockett, especially since Armstead is missing valuable off-season practice because of a late graduation. That isn’t good news because Dockett was massively overpaid on a 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Anything more than a minimum deal with incentives for Dockett would have been too much. Dockett is going into his age 34 season after missing all of 2014 with a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem. He wasn’t that good before the injury either as he was perennially one of the NFL’s most overrated players, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012.

Glenn Dorsey returns from injury, after missing all of 2014 with a torn biceps. Where he plays remains a mystery. Dorsey played at nose tackle in 2013 with the 49ers, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked defensive tackle, including 9^th against the run. However, in his absence last season, Ian Williams played very well. He only played 219 snaps in 9 games before going down for the season with an injury, but he would have graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked defensive tackle last season if he had been eligible, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. It’s a concern that Williams has been limited to 11 games over the last 2 seasons with ankle problems but, Quinton Dial, who was the nose tackle down the stretch in Williams’ absence, also graded out above average last season.

With the 49ers seemingly set at nose tackle without Dorsey and issues at 3-4 defensive end, Dorsey could see the majority of his on the outside, after spending the first 5 seasons of his career as a 3-4 defensive end in Kansas City. However, Dorsey graded out below average as a 3-4 defensive end in every season in Kansas City, except 2012, when he played just 4 games. He’s also missed 28 games with major injuries over the past 3 seasons combined. Without McDonald and Smith, this defensive line doesn’t look nearly as good.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The 49ers also had retirements in their linebacking corps as two players retired at middle linebacker and both of them were surprises. Patrick Willis was the first one to retire, cutting his Hall-of-Fame career short ahead of his age 30 season, after recurring foot problems caused him to miss 10 games the previous season. Willis was a top-3 player on Pro Football Focus in every season from his rookie season in 2007 to 2013 before the injury plagued 2014 season. Even during that injury plagued final season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked middle linebacker through 5 weeks.

That being said, the 49ers were shockingly fine without Willis last season thanks to the emergence of 3^rd round rookie Chris Borland. Borland started for Willis down the stretch and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked middle linebacker on just 487 snaps, with no one playing more snaps and grading out higher at the position. From week 6 on, Borland was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked middle linebacker, only behind New England’s Jamie Collins. However, Borland shocked the football world by announcing his retirement this off-season as well, after just one season in the league, citing long-term health concerns.

As shocking as guys like Jake Locker, Patrick Willis, and even Anthony Davis retiring early was, all of those guys had noticeable injury woes and Davis even said he’d be back when he was healthy. Borland didn’t seem to, which would make him comparable to only Jason Worilds, another player who shockingly retired this off-season. The difference is Worilds has already made a lot of money. Borland comparatively didn’t make much and much of what he did make was his rookie signing bonus, a large portion of which he had to pay back when he retired. Borland just wanted to do something else.

As strange as this might sound, the 49ers are still in solid position at linebacker without Willis and Borland, as nice as it would have been to have both of them. NaVorro Bowman returns at middle linebacker, after missing all of last season with multiple ligament tears in his knee. There’s concern about whether or not he’ll return to form, but he’s only going into his age 27 season and he’ll be about 19 months removed from the devastating injury by week 1. Even if he’s less than 100% in his first year back, he’ll still be a huge asset to them. A 2010 3^rd round pick, Bowman ranked 1^st, 6^th, and 1^st among middle linebackers in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Michael Wilhoite, who started 16 games in Bowman’s absence last season, returns as the starter next to him. He graded out below average, ranking 37^th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers, but you could do a lot worse than him and he has the ability to play every down.

At outside linebacker, Aldon Smith has stayed out of trouble and seems poised to play his first 16 game season since 2012, which will also be a big boost to this San Francisco defense. Smith missed 5 games in 2013 while attending rehab and then missed 9 games in 2014 with suspension, but the 49ers have stood by him and believed in him, largely because of his immense talent. Now it looks like they’re going to be rewarded. Smith ranked 2^nd and 3^rd in 2011 and 2012 respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers, after going 7^th overall in 2011. In 2013, he ranked 5^th despite missing 5 games and #1 during the time he actually played. In 2014, he ranked 11^th from week 11 on, after his return, and 20^th overall on the season, despite missing 9 games with suspension. Smith has the potential for a huge 2015 season and he has every incentive to make good on that potential, going into a contract year with a potential 10+ million dollar annual salary on the line. The 49ers used a 3^rd round pick on Eli Harold in case anything goes wrong with Smith.

Opposite Smith, it’ll be a battle between Aaron Lynch and Ahmad Brooks. Lynch seems like the heavy favorite in that battle and many expected he’d be an every down player this season, with Dan Skuta leaving as a free agent and Brooks likely getting cut. Skuta is gone, but Brooks still remains, despite a non-guaranteed 7.3 million dollar salary and a declining game. Still, I expect Lynch to once again outplay Brooks and get him cut going into 2016. Lynch, a 2014 5^th round pick, flashed on 521 snaps last season in the absence of Aldon Smith, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked 3-4 outside linebacker despite the limited playing time. Meanwhile, Brooks was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker as recently as 2012, but he graded out below average in both 2013 and 2014. Now he’s going into his age 31 season. Simply put, Brooks is a descending player, while Lynch is an ascending player on the outside. Lynch’s potential, along with the full-time returns of both Smith and Bowman keep this a strong position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

At cornerback, the 49ers lost both starters this off-season, as Chris Culliver (14 starts) signed with the Redskins and Perrish Cox (15 starts) signed with the Titans. They both graded out above average and ranked 15^th and 35^th respectively among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, so it’s hardly a small loss. The good news is that Tramaine Brock, a starter in 2013, returns after missing 13 games with various injuries last season. Brock was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked cornerback on 678 snaps in 16 games (7 starts) in 2013, causing the 49ers to lock him up long-term on a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal, which had the potential to be a long-term steal if Brock could stay healthy. Now he returns and, while he’s still a one year wonder, as the 2010 undrafted free agent had played 145 career snaps from 2010-2012 prior to his 2013 breakout year, his return should still help them deal with the loss of Cox and Culliver.

He’s really the only one who will help them deal with the loss of Cox and Culliver. Shareece Wright, who they signed from San Diego to be the other starter, has been atrocious as a starter over the past 2 seasons. Wright was a 3rd round pick in 2011 and barely played in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, playing a combined 124 snaps in 2011-2012, but he’s been a starter over the last 2 seasons. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. Going into 2014, the Chargers brought in Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft and Brandon Flowers through free agency to send Wright to a #3 cornerback role, but an injury to Verrett forced Wright to play 853 snaps and make 14 starts. He once again struggled, grading out 105th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. I’m shocked he’s getting a 3^rd chance to be a starter.

Jimmie Ward will once again play in as the 3^rd cornerback, primarily on the slot. He started there week 1 last year, but the 2014 1^st round pick had a rough rookie year overall, being limited to 270 snaps in 8 games by injuries, going down for the season week 10, and struggling mightily on the occasions where he did play. His foot problems are reportedly lingering into the off-season. The 49ers don’t seem worried about him missing any time to start the season, but he’s missing valuable practice time. If Ward or Brock misses any time again or Wright needs to be benched, Dontae Johnson is the 4^th cornerback and the backup at all 3 spots. He was forced into action as a 4^th round rookie in 2014, grading out only slightly below average on 512 snaps. He could be an upgrade over Wright, but Wright’s 3 million dollar salary suggests the 49ers want him to be the guy.

Things are fortunately better at safety. Eric Reid, their 2013 1^st round pick, will start at one spot. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked safety in 2013 as a rookie and, though he took a step back as a sophomore, grading out slightly below average, he’s still a solid starter with upside going into his 3^rd year in the league. He’ll once again play opposite Antoine Bethea, who was a bright spot for the 49ers in 2014.

The veteran looked like he was on the decline last off-season, grading out below average in both 2012 and 2013, after grading out above average from 2007-2011. Bethea proved he still had something left in the tank though last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked safety. His age is a concern as he goes into his age 31 season, but he should be dependable again and he hasn’t missed a start in 7 years, since 2007. The 49ers weirdly used a 2^nd round pick on Jaquiski Tartt to be Bethea’s long-term successor when they had other pressing needs. Dumb moves like that are part of the reason why this team has quickly gone from one of the league’s best to one of the league’s worst.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The 49ers’ season in 2014 was ruined by injuries, as they had the 5^th most injuries in the league, including 22 games lost by the best inside linebacker duo in the country, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, not including 9 games lost to suspension by one of the best edge rushers in the game, Aldon Smith. They should have better health in 2014, but they won’t be a better team. Bowman is back, but Willis retired, along with Justin Smith, Anthony Davis and Chris Borland, who was in line to be Willis’ long-term replacement.

On top of that, the 49ers lost Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree, Ray McDonald, Perrish Cox, and Chris Culliver this off-season. Their efforts to replace all of their lost players in free agency did not go well as the 49ers were only able to overpay Shareece Wright, Torrey Smith, Reggie Bush, and Darnell Dockett. Their draft didn’t go much better as the 49ers used their 1^st round pick on a player who isn’t ready and their 2nd round pick on a clear backup that won’t be able to get onto the field as a rookie. The 49ers are unlikely to get much impact out of their rookie class as a result.

One of their biggest losses was head coach Jim Harbaugh, who dragged this team out of irrelevance over his first 3 seasons with the team from 2011-2013 before injuries hit in 2014 and who only was allowed to leave to go to the University of Michigan because he was clashing with management. Also gone are talented coordinators Greg Roman and Vic Fangio, leaving ex-defensive line coach Jim Tomsula as the head man. Tomsula is reportedly loved by his players, but his head coaching experience consists of one interim start in 2010 and his top offensive mind is Geep Chryst, who hasn’t called plays since 2000. That won’t help Colin Kaepernick, who is coming off of a down year and doesn’t have anywhere near the supporting cast he once had. This team was even worse than their 8-8 record last season and should be even worse this year. In a tough NFC West, the 49ers could easily come in last. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the 49ers after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 4-12 4th in NFC West

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Cleveland Browns 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 12, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

Quarterbacks

The Browns have infamously had 22 different starting quarterbacks since they returned to the league in 1999, most in the NFL over that time period. Over that time period, Brown quarterbacks have combined to complete just 57.2% of their passes for an average of 6.35 YPA, 275 touchdowns, and 301 interceptions. As you can imagine, that hasn’t translated to a lot of winning as the Browns have gone 84-172 over that stretch, making the playoffs just once and losing in the first round.

The Browns have tried to find a franchise changer at quarterback many times, using a 1^st round pick on a quarterback four times in that 15 year stretch. However, those 4 picks have yielded them Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, and, most recently Johnny Manziel, a 2014 1^st round pick who is unlikely to be the week 1 starter in his 2^nd year in the league in 2015. That week 1 starter is likely to be Josh McCown, who would be the 23^rd quarterback in new Browns franchise history.

McCown will make a guaranteed 5.25 million this season, after signing a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with the Browns this off-season. That’s a ridiculous amount considering that McCown is going into his age 36 season and coming off of a horrendous season in Tampa Bay, completing just 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible and went 1-10 in his 11 starts.

The previous off-season, he got a 4.75 million dollar first year salary as a free agent, signing in Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. That was when he was a year younger and coming off of a 2013 season in which he randomly played brilliant in the absence of an injured Jay Cutler, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked quarterback, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. However, last season proved that 2013 season was a flash in the pan. 2013 is his only season of a 70+ QB rating since 2006. Going into his age 36 season, he might be the worst week 1 starting quarterback in the NFL.

The Browns would definitely like Johnny Manziel, the 22^nd overall pick in 2014, to be able to beat McCown out, but that doesn’t seem likely after he had about as bad of a rookie year as you can have. Manziel had to wait until week 15 to make his first NFL start, despite the fact that Brian Hoyer was struggling, finishing with 55.3% completion, 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions and grading as Pro Football Focus’ 35^th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. There were reports that Manziel wasn’t learning the playbook quickly, wasn’t displaying maturity on or off the field, and generally didn’t seem ready for the NFL.

Once Manziel got onto the field, he was a disaster, completing 51.4% of his passes for an average of 5.00 YPA, no touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. After the season ended, even more reports came out detailing just how bad it was behind the scenes with Manziel last season. Manziel also spent a 3 month period of time in rehab for drug and alcohol related issues. The Browns were linked to both Marcus Mariota and Sam Bradford on draft day, armed with two 1^st round picks. Manziel is back at practice now and the Browns didn’t draft a single quarterback, but the Browns have reportedly borderline moved on from him and see McCown as the clear starter ahead of him, especially since Manziel’s play in off-season practices hasn’t been good either.

Even before you take McCown’s advanced age into account, he’s a downgrade from Brian Hoyer, the Browns’ quarterback last year and now a competitor for the starting job in Houston. McCown played even worse last season than Hoyer did. McCown ranked slightly farther from the bottom on Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings than Hoyer, as McCown ranked 34^th out of 39 eligible and Hoyer ranked 35^th, but McCown also did that on about 300 fewer snaps. McCown was also worse in pure passing grade, 36^th to Hoyer’s 32^nd. McCown QB rating was significantly lower (76.7 vs. 70.5) and Tampa Bay’s offense moved the chains at a 63.46% rate when McCown started, while the Browns’ moved at a 69.36% rate when Hoyer started. This might be the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.

Grade: F

Receiving Corps

Hoyer was more productive with the Browns’ offensive supporting cast last season than McCown was with the Buccaneers’ offensive supporting cast. That was despite the fact that McCown was throwing to Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, who persevered through terrible quarterback play to be one of four wide receiver duos to each go over 1000+ receiving yards. The Browns don’t have anything like that. They added a few veterans to the receiving corps this off-season, but no one game changing. They also didn’t add a pass catcher in the draft until the 4^th round, even though it was arguably their biggest need, and they saw tight end Jordan Cameron sign with the Dolphins.

The Browns go into 2015 with Dwayne Bowe as their #1 receiver, which might have been fine in 2012, but not so much now, especially as he goes into his age 31 season. From 2007-2012, Dwayne Bowe caught 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. That earned him a 5-year, 56 million dollar deal, but it’s been all downhill for Bowe over the past 2 seasons since signing that deal. Despite playing with Alex Smith over the past two seasons, who has been easily the best quarterback he’s had in his career, but Bowe has put up 57/673/5 and 60/754/0 slash lines in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

The Browns are really banking on his reduced production over the past two seasons being the result of Alex Smith’s love of throwing over the middle and fear of throwing to outside receivers, but it’s also very possible that Smith’s inability to complete passes outside the numbers over the past 2 seasons had to do with his lack of talent in that area, notably Bowe. Besides, it’s not like McCown is a better outside thrower. He might throw there with more volume, but he’s certainly a downgrade. Bowe has graded out below average as a pass catcher on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 2 seasons and his best days are behind him. The Browns are in trouble with him as their #1 receiver and drastically overpaid him on a 2-year, 12.5 million dollar deal with 9 million guaranteed.

Opposite him, the Browns brought in a younger player to be the likely other starter, but he has a similar skill set to Bowe. That player is Brian Hartline. Hartline was one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL in 2014, which led to his release from the Dolphins, a move that saved Miami 5.95 million in cash and 3.15 million on the cap. Hartline played all 16 games in 2014, but caught just 39 passes for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns on 62 attempts (62.9%) and 490 routes run, an average of 0.99 yards per route run. He was also Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. However, he graded out above average in both 2012 and 2013, putting up 1000+ yard seasons in both of those years. Only going into his age 29 season, Hartline has a good chance to bounce back in 2015. He’s not that athletic, but he’s big, sure handed, and a good route runner.

Andrew Hawkins will likely be the slot receiver. Even though he’s 5-7 175, I think he’s more than just a slot receiver and he should push the underwhelming duo of Bowe and Hartline for outside snaps. He ran 42.4% of his routes not on the slot last season. On 234 snaps on the slot, he had 394 yards, an average of 1.68 yards per route run. Meanwhile, on snaps where he was not on the slot, he had 431 yards on 172 routes run, an average of 2.51 yards per route run. Those figures are both very solid considering the quarterback play. Buried on the depth chart in Cincinnati to start his career, Hawkins finally got a shot in 2014 and led Cleveland wide receivers in snaps played, 667 snaps overall, and receiving yardage last season, 825 yards, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked wide receiver in the process. More versatile than he’s given credit for, it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Browns if he led them in routes run again in 2015.

Taylor Gabriel will then slot into the #4 receiver job, where he’ll provide very strong depth. Gabriel, a 2014 undrafted free agent, flashed in limited action as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^thranked wide receiver on 629 snaps (2^nd among Brown wide receivers), catching 38 passes on 71 targets (53.5%) for 633 yards and a touchdown on 334 routes run, an average of 1.90 yards per route run, mostly in the absence of Josh Gordon to start the season. Capable of playing both inside and outside, Gabriel will backup all 3 spots and could push for snaps on the outside at the absence of either Bowe or Hartline. The Browns have a quartet of decent wide receivers, but no one to really fear. Rookie 4^th round pick Vince Mayle is unlikely to have much of an impact as a rookie.

Former Browns tight end Jordan Cameron was 2^nd on the team in receiving yards in 2013, behind Josh Gordon’s league leading 1646 yards. Cameron caught 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns, but saw those numbers go down to 24 catches for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Browns passed less, he missed 6 games with injury, and his receiving abilities generally slipped. Still, his loss hurts the team because Jim Dray, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 44^th ranked tight end out of 67 eligible in 2014 on 612 snaps as Jordan Cameron’s replacement while he was injured, will now compete with free agent acquisition Rob Housler for the starting tight end job.

Rob Housler came into the NFL with a lot of promise, drafted in the 3rd round in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Cardinals after running a 4.55 40 at 6-5 248. However, he never lived up to that potential, grading out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the NFL and averaging 418 snaps played per season, including just 327 snaps in his contract year in 2014. He never developed as a blocker and caught just 105 passes in 55 career games. He’s expected to be the starting tight end in Cleveland with Cameron’s departure, with Dray focusing on being a blocker. It’s a position of weakness in an overall underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: C

Running Backs

With a weak passing game once again, expect the Browns to try to be as run heavy as possible, which was the case last season as well. They finished last season with 477 carries, 6^th in the NFL, as opposed to 502 pass attempts, 26^th in the NFL. With a strong defense supporting them again, the Browns should be able to achieve a similar mix in 2015. The Browns signed Ben Tate to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal to be their lead back last off-season, after he spent a successful 4-year tenure in Houston as Arian Foster’s backup. However, Tate ended up getting hurt, averaging 3.14 yards per carry on 106 carries, and getting cut midway through the season, not even finishing his first season in Cleveland.

Instead, it was a pair of rookies, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell, who carried the load for the Browns. West was the higher draft pick, going in the 3^rd round, but the undrafted Crowell had the better rookie year statistically. Crowell had a tumultuous collegiate career that saw him get kicked off the Georgia team and end up at Alabama State, but he was, at one point, a 5-star recruit and he rushed for 607 yards and 8 touchdowns on 148 carries as a rookie, an average of 4.10 yards per carry. West, meanwhile, rushed for 673 yards and 4 touchdowns on 171 carries, an average of 3.94 yards per carry. As long as he stays out of trouble, Crowell should be the lead back in Cleveland, with West working as the backup.

The Browns also used a 3^rd round pick on Duke Johnson, a smaller scatback at 5-9 207 who can provide a change of pace from Crowell (5-11 225) and Terrance West (5-10 225). He’s also a much better pass catcher than either of them as Crowell and West caught just 9 and 11 passes respectively as rookies, while Johnson caught 38 passes in his final season at the University of Miami. There’s going to be opportunity for all three running backs, though I should point out that both West and Crowell graded out below average on Pro Football Focus last season and both looked better than they were as a result of a strong offensive line that finished 11^th in team run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus last season. Even still, the Browns averaged just 3.62 yards per carry last season, 28^th in the NFL. They run better than they pass, but neither is a very good option for this team in terms of trying to move the chains.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

As a mentioned, the Browns have a strong offensive line. Not only did they finish 11^th in run blocking grade, but they also finished 2^nd in pass blocking grade. The Browns have an extreme lack of offensive skill position players, but they do have an offensive line that makes things close to as easy as can be for them. Given that, it was perplexing why the Browns used the 19^th overall pick on offensive lineman Cameron Erving. Erving is a talented player, but the pick doesn’t make any sense.

Erving played all over the line at Florida State, but didn’t really see his draft stock move into the 1^st round until he moved to center as a senior. In Cleveland, the center position is taken by Alex Mack, who, despite the fact that he broke his leg last season, is still one of the top centers in the NFL. Mack has the ability to opt out of his contract after this season, which he very well could do, so Erving makes sense long-term there if the Browns have already resigned themselves to the fact that they’re going to lose him, but he’s not a short-term option there.

Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is probably the weak point on this offensive line, but the 2012 2^nd round pick has graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been at the league, making 41 starts at right tackle. He ranked 33^rd among offensive tackles last season. A better player inside than outside, Erving would not be an immediate upgrade at right tackle, though he could be a long-term option there if the Browns don’t have interest in re-signing Schwartz to an extension, ahead of a 2015 contract year.

It looks a lot like the Browns drafted Erving for the future, which isn’t the worst idea, but it also means the Browns, as much cap space as they have, don’t think they’re going to be able to keep this offensive line together long-term. It would have made more sense to take someone who could make an immediate impact at wide receiver and then dealt with the offensive line in next year’s draft or in a later round just in case one of Mack or Schwartz leaves. In the short-term, Erving is expected to battle John Greco for the starting right guard spot.

Unless the Browns are desperately to get the rookie onto the field, Erving is unlikely to beat out Greco and I think the Browns would be making a mistake forcing Erving onto the field over Greco, as Greco graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked guard last season. A reserve early in his career, Greco has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of his 7 seasons in the NFL, including each of the last 3 seasons as a starter. Making 40 starts over the past 3 seasons, 20 at left guard, 15 at right guard, and 1 at center, Greco has graded out 19^th, 30^th, and then 11^th respectively in each of the last 3 seasons respectively. He and Schwartz form a solid right side of the offensive line and the Browns shouldn’t mess with that.

At center, Mack returns after missing 11 games last season. The 2009 1^st round pick had made 85 straight starts at center to begin his career before going down with that broken leg last season, so he should be able to bounce back. Mack graded out in the top-11 among centers in each of his first 5 seasons in the league, one of two centers to grade out that well in every season from that time period (2009-2013), with the other being Houston’s Chris Myers. Through the first 5 weeks of the season last year, Mack was 4^th among centers before the injury. He should be able to pick up right where he left off in 2015.

It’s worth noting that the Browns moved the chains at a 76.83% rate in games that Mack started, as opposed to 62.34% in their other games. It’s unfair to give Mack all that credit and suggest that Mack was the missing piece to a strong offense. The Browns also didn’t have terrible offensive injury luck in general last season (ranking 16^th in offensive adjusted games lost) so I don’t think it’s quite accurate to suggest that the Browns are going to have significantly better offensive health in 2015 and that alone will get their offense out of the cellar, but Mack’s return is definitely welcome.

Part of that is just how bad their center play was in his absence. Paul McQuistan and Ryan Seymour were horrific in limited action, while Nick McDonald, who made 7 starts at center, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 39^th ranked center out of 41 eligible despite playing just 481 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out worse at the position. In that sense, the addition of Erving could be valuable. As long as they don’t force him into the starting lineup over an established starter, Erving can provide value as a utility 6^th offensive line capable of playing anywhere if injuries strike. He doesn’t provide as much value in that role as someone like wide receiver Breshad Perriman would have as an upgrade outside over Brian Hartline, but still.

Things are very good on the left side as well with Joel Bitinio at left guard and Joe Thomas at left tackle. Bitinio had a fantastic rookie year as a 2014 2^nd round pick, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked guard. He’s obviously still a one year wonder as he’s only played one year in the league and the 2^nd rounder doesn’t have a great, high ceiling or anything, but he should once again have a strong year at left guard.

Meanwhile, at left tackle, Joe Thomas is one of the best players in the league. Since being drafted 3^rd overall in 2007, Thomas has made 128 of 128 starts and graded out as a top-10 offensive tackle in all 8 seasons, including 4^th overall in 2014. With 5 All-Pros and 8 Pro-Bowls, Thomas’ career is on a Hall of Fame track. It’s just too bad he’s had to spend that career in an offense habitually without talented skill position players. Only going into his age 31 season, another dominant year should be on its way. It’s one of the best offensive lines in football on one of the worst offenses in football. One final thing that should be noted is that the Browns lost offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who always has done good work with running games and offensive lines like his father, and replaced him with first time play caller John DeFilippo, which doesn’t help this offense.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

As bad as the Browns’ offense was last season, they still did manage to finish with 7 wins, which isn’t horrible. That was as a result of a defense that ranked 11^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense was able to prevent opponents from consistently moving the chains on them, which allowed them to run the more conservative offense they wanted to, despite the fact that their run defense was pretty bad. They allowed 4.53 yards per carry, 28^th in the NFL.

A big part of the problem was Athyba Rubin, a veteran who struggled mightily at nose tackle, grading out 74^th among 81 eligible defensive tackles. He left as a free agent and was replaced by Danny Shelton, the 12^th overall pick in the draft. Shelton has drawn comparisons to Dontari Poe, a player who was drafted in relatively the same spot in 2012 who has become an every down player in a traditional nose tackle’s body. However, while Shelton could become an every down player long-term, he’ll see the majority of his snaps as a rookie in base packages and a two-down run clogger.

The Browns are also getting defensive linemen John Hughes and Phil Taylor back from injury, after they each missed 11 games last season. Hughes was given a 4-year, 14.4 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of his contract year, which suggests the Browns still see him as a big part of their future defensive line. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013 on just 402 snaps and was poised for a bigger role in 2014, before being limited to 212 snaps in 5 games thanks to injuries. He still played well in 2014 when on the field and, without much of a serious injury history, Hughes should have a fairly significantly role this season, particularly as a run stopper in base packages.

Taylor’s role is less clear. A 2011 1^st round pick, Taylor has largely been a bust thus far in his career and there’s talk that, even though they don’t need the cap space, the Browns could cut him to save 5.477 million in cash and cap space. After playing just 133 snaps in 5 games last season, he has now missed 20 games in 4 seasons in the NFL since getting drafted in the first round in 2011 and only graded out above average once, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked defensive tackle in 2013. He can play both defensive end and defensive tackle, but if he’s unable to carve out a role on a deep defensive line, very much a possibility, he could be shown the door in final cuts, if not sooner.

Speaking of this deep defensive line, Desmond Bryant will return as a starter at one spot and could lead the defensive line in snaps played for the 2nd straight year. Bryant signed a 5-year, 34 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked defensive tackle in 2012, but he hasn’t lived up to it, grading out below average in both seasons in Cleveland. He graded out 31^st out of 45 eligible in 2013 and 37^th out of 47 eligible in 2014. He’s a well-rounded player with a solid history of success earlier in his career in Oakland, but he’s entering a make or break 3^rd year with the Browns. He could be cut next off-season if he doesn’t turn it around. Even if he does lead the Browns in snaps played on the defensive line again, he probably won’t see 749 snaps again because of the depth the Browns added this off-season and the guys the Browns have returning from injury.

Another player who should see a smaller role in 2015 is Billy Winn, who finished 2^nd on the Browns’ defensive line in snaps played with 511 last season, largely playing in the absence of Hughes. With Hughes healthy now, Winn will be a pure reserve, which is a good thing because he’s graded out below average in 2 of 3 seasons in the league, including 39^th out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends last season.

While Shelton was an addition through the draft (replacing Rubin) and Hughes and Taylor are additions in terms of returning from injury (assuming Taylor makes the final roster), the veteran Randy Starks was an addition through free agency, signing with the Browns on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal after the Dolphins cut him to save 5 million in cash and cap space. He graded out below average on 544 snaps last season, the first time he had graded out below average in Pro Football Focus’ history, since 2007. Starks could bounce back in 2015, but, going into his age 32 season, it’s more likely that his best days are behind him. He’s solid depth though.

The Browns also added Xavier Cooper in the 3rd round of the draft, but he’ll probably have to wait for 2016 to get any sort of real playing time. With Danny Shelton, Phil Taylor, John Hughes, Desmond Bryant, Billy Winn, Randy Starks, and Cooper, the Browns have plenty of depth, but no real game changers on the defensive line. Still, it should be a better group than last year’s, which relied heavily on Desmond Bryant, Billy Winn, and Ahtyba Rubin, all of whom struggled mightily.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The linebacking corps and the secondary was where the real strength of the Browns’ defense was last season. Paul Kruger led the way with 12 sacks last season and returns to an every down role. Kruger has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, including the last 3 as starters, ranking 6^th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2012, 20^th in 2013, and 14^th in 2014. The Browns signed him to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, a risky deal because he had only been a starter for one year, but the Browns’ risk has paid off.

Jabaal Sheard was the starter opposite Kruger last season, but he left as a free agent, signing with the Patriots on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. He might have taken a significant discount to play for a contender in New England, but I’m still surprised that the Browns, armed with a bunch of cap space, weren’t able to keep a valuable contributor. Barkevious Mingo, who played 681 snaps as the 3^rd 3-4 outside linebacker last season, will be the starter in his absence. The 2013 6^th overall pick struggled on 668 snaps as a rookie, grading out 38^th out of 42 eligible, but graded out 15^th among 3-4 outside linebackers last season and could have a breakout 3^rd year in the league in his first season as an every down player in 2015. 2^nd round rookie Nate Orchard, meanwhile, will be the primary reserve.

At middle linebacker, Karlos Dansby will once again be an every down player, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked middle linebacker last season, after being signed to a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent last off-season. He’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons, in the top-12 among middle linebackers in 5 straight seasons, and above average in 7 of 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history. The issue is he’s going into his age 34 season and he won’t be able to play like this forever. His abilities could fall off the cliff at any point, including this season.

At the other middle linebacker spot, it’ll be a competition between Chris Kirksey and Craig Robertson for playing time. Robertson, a 2011 undrafted free agent, struggled mightily in 2012 and 2013, after not playing a snap as a rookie. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ 52^nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible, prompting the Browns to draft Kirksey in the 3^rd round in 2014. Robertson turned it around in 2014 though, grading out above average for the first time in his career, ranking 18^th among middle linebackers on 674 snaps. Kirksey, meanwhile, graded out below average on 693 snaps. Kirksey might have to wait until Robertson, a free agent next off-season, leaves Cleveland before he can become an every down player. In 2015, I expect the Browns to once again use Robertson in base packages and Kirksey in sub packages.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Browns lost Buster Skrine in free agency and he was a 16-game starter at cornerback for them last season. However, he won’t really be missed as the Jets massively overpaid him on a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal this off-season. Skrine was just a 5th round pick of the Browns’ in 2011, but he made 37 starts in 4 seasons with the Browns and started 31 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons. The problem is he’s not very good, grading out below average in all 4 seasons, with his worst year coming in 2013, when he graded out 105th out of 110 eligible, leading the position in both missed tackles and touchdowns allowed. Last season, he graded out 82^nd out of 110 eligible thanks, in large part, to a whopping 17 penalties. The Browns drafted Justin Gilbert in the first round in 2014 to be an upgrade over him and Skrine only remained a starter last year because Gilbert was a slow learner as a rookie.

The Browns replaced Buster Skrine by signing Tramon Williams to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal, a better deal than the one the Jets gave to Skrine. Williams is going into his age 32 season, but he should still be a solid starter next season. He’s not the player he was in 2009, when he graded out 9th, or 2010, when he graded out 8th, but he’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and made 95 of 96 starts over that time period.

Of course, the signing of Williams signals the Browns still are not confident in Justin Gilbert, the 8^th overall pick in 2014. Gilbert will now compete with 2014 undrafted free agent K’Wuan Williams for the #3 cornerback job and Gilbert might not win it. Even though Gilbert went 8th overall and Williams didn’t get drafted, Williams had easily the better rookie year. While Gilbert graded out below average on just 373 snaps before getting suspended for the final game of the season for a violation of team rules, Williams graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked cornerback on 351 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better, as Williams allowed just 4.91 yards per attempt into his coverage last season. Gilbert still has more long-term upside than Williams, but Williams played so well on the slot last year that they might just keep him there. That would put Gilbert in as the 4^th cornerback, waiting for an injury.

Joe Haden remains the #1 cornerback and will start opposite Williams. The Browns signed him to a 5-year, 68 million dollar deal last off-season, making him the highest paid player on the team. Haden didn’t quite live up to that last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28^th ranked cornerback, but he’s still a very valuable member of this secondary. Since being drafted 7^th overall in 2010, Haden has graded out 6^th, 10^th, 20^th, 17^th, and 28^th in all 5 seasons of his career respectively among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus.

Things are strong at safety as well. Tashaun Gipson is coming off of a breakout year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked safety. He’s still a one year wonder though as the 2012 undrafted free agent graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, including 69^th out of 86 eligible in 2013 in his first year as a starter. He’ll need to prove it again. He’s going into a contract year, but the Browns don’t seem too eager to give him a long-term deal. They’ll have the franchise tag available next off-season and they don’t want to commit too much guaranteed money to a one-year wonder, especially one who missed the final 5 games of the season with a knee injury, which the Browns apparently still have concerns about.

Opposite him, the Browns have a veteran who is also coming off of a strong season, as Donte Whitner graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked safety. Whitner, a 2006 1^st round pick, was just an average player in 5 years in Buffalo to start his career, but was a much more dominant player on his 2^nd contract in San Francisco from 2011-2013 and then continued that into his 3^rd contract in 2014 with the Browns, after signing on a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal last off-season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked safety in 2011, 7^th ranked in 2013, and then 11^th in 2014 (with a below average season in 2012 in between). He’s going into his age 30 season, but he should have another strong year.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Browns are frustrating. As you can see, they do have a good deal of talent, especially in the secondary and on the offensive line. However, their lack of offensive skill position talent, particularly at the quarterback position, will keep them out of the playoffs and in the cellar of the AFC North. With even an average quarterback, they have a good shot to make the playoffs as their supporting cast is better than San Diego’s, Pittsburgh’s, Kansas City’s, among others, but Josh McCown is a veteran journeyman at the end of his run and Johnny Manziel doesn’t seem like he’s going to beat him out any time soon. The Browns won 7 games last year with a similar team. This year, they might be more talented, but they might not win as many games. Their schedule gets much tougher, after they had the 8th easiest schedule in the league in 2014, and they weren’t quite as good as their record suggested last season, finishing 26th in rate of moving the chains differential. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Browns after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in AFC North

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Cincinnati Bengals 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Andy Dalton gets a lot of heat for his career playoff performance. It does make some sense. Dalton has lost in the first round in every season of his 4 year career, tying YA Tittle’s record worst 0-4 career playoff record. Dalton hasn’t played well in those 4 games either, completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.53 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions. While he definitely has struggled in playoff games, I think he gets judged too much on that.

Even going into last year’s playoff loss, many pundits were wondering if Dalton could ever possibly win a playoff game. Of course he can, he’s there every year. I don’t think it’s fair to judge him just on 4 playoff games and ignore the 64 regular season games. Those aren’t meaningless. You have to get to the playoffs to win in the playoffs. Once you’re there, there’s a decent amount of flukiness, randomness, and bad luck that is involved in single elimination playoff games. I’m not saying that Dalton was just unlucky in those playoff games. He did play badly. But I think it was more bad luck that those bad games came on a huge stage than it is a fundamental flaw in Dalton. Even YA Tittle was a Hall of Famer, despite never winning a playoff game.

I’m also not saying that Dalton should be free of all criticism either and he’s certainly not on the Hall of Fame track like Tittle. His regular season play has been decent, but he’s also had a lot of help getting him to the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. He’s the definition of an average quarterback. In his career, he’s completed 61.6% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 99 touchdowns, and 66 interceptions, while grading out 27^th, 25^th, 16^th, and 21^st on Pro Football Focus in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively.

This puts the Bengals in a tough position because he’s been good enough to lead this team to the playoffs and put them out of position to find an upgrade in the draft, but he’s not good enough to win a Super Bowl without a ton of help. He’s also not exactly a young quarterback any more, going into his age 28 season. Described as a pro ready, but limited quarterback coming out of Texas Christian in 2011, Dalton has exceeded a lot of expectations, but probably isn’t going to get much better. He’s shown a disappointingly small amount of progress on the field since his rookie year.

The Bengals’ approach to the Dalton problem was to accept that he’s the best they’re going to get and give him a 6-year, 96 million dollar extension last off-season and continue the current course. It’s not a terrible idea, especially since very little of the deal is actually guaranteed, so if Dalton ever completely bombs a season and/or they ever get a chance to bring in a long-term upgrade, the Bengals can get out of the rest of the deal fairly painlessly. That being said, you do have to wonder if the Bengals are kicking themselves for not drafting Teddy Bridgewater 24^th overall in last year’s draft, after he inexplicably fell to the bottom of the first round.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

In terms of record, there wasn’t a ton of difference between the 2013 Bengals and the 2014 Bengals, as they went 11-5 in 2013 and 10-5-1 in 2014. However, win/loss totals are a small data set and, as a result, often don’t tell the whole story of a season. In 2013, the Bengals finished 3^rd in rate of moving the chains differential and in 2014 they finished 16^th. What happened? Well, on the offensive side of the ball (where they went from 12^th in rate of moving the chains to 18^th), injuries were a big part of the problem, as they had the 5^th most offensive injuries in terms of adjusted games lost. Those injuries, for the most part, were in the receiving corps, which made life very difficult for Dalton.

Tyler Eifert, their first round pick in 2013 and someone who was a potential breakout player in his 2^nd year in the league in 2014, missed the entire season (except 8 snaps) with elbow problems. As a result, Jermaine Gresham had to play 900 snaps at tight end, 7^th most in the NFL, and he once again graded out below average. The Bengals also didn’t have another tight end play more than 157 snaps and rarely used two-tight end sets. Fullback Ryan Hewitt helped mitigate some of that and did a solid job on 472 snaps, but that was still a major problem for a team that wants to run the ball a lot.

The Bengals are banking on this being Eifert’s breakout year. They have let the veteran Gresham go and don’t seem too interested in bringing him back, as he remains a free agent. That’s for the best as Gresham has really struggled in recent years. The Bengals used a 3^rd round pick on Tyler Kroft, but the rookie won’t provide much more than depth and blocking. This is Eifert’s show at tight end now. He has plenty of talent, but is pretty unproven. He played 681 snaps and graded out above average as the #2 tight end as a rookie and then missed all of last season.

Eifert wasn’t the only key member of their receiving corps that missed the entire season with injury as Marvin Jones sat out the entire season with a foot problem. Like Eifert, he too seemed like a young receiver on the cusp of a breakout year. The 2012 5^th round pick was highly efficient in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked wide receiver on just 555 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. He caught 51 of 77 targets (66.2%) for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns on 377 routes run (1.89 yards per route run), playing as the 3^rd receiver for the most of the year behind AJ Green and Mohamed Sanu. He would have been an every down starter in 2014 if not for the injury and he’ll start the season in that role again in 2015 so he could have that breakout year this year, but a lost season does kill some momentum and put a damper on his breakout potential.

AJ Green is their best wide receiver and, while he didn’t miss the whole season like Eifert and Jones, he too missed time with injury. While he technically only missed 3 regular season games, he missed the majority of two other games with injury and he was severely missed in the playoff loss to Indianapolis. In that loss, the only players to catch a pass were running backs Giovani Bernard (8/46) and Rex Burkhead (3/34), fullback Ryan Hewitt (3/37), reserve tight end Kevin Brock (1/7), and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (3/31).

When on the field, Green was once again a force. He was Pro Football Focus’ 15^th ranked wide receiver on 666 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. He caught 69 of 109 targets (63.3%) for 1041 yards and 6 touchdowns on 352 routes run (a league leading average of 2.96 yards per route run). This is nothing new for him as Green graded out 8^th among wide receivers in 2012 and 17^th in 2013. In 4 seasons on the league, the 2011 4^th overall pick has caught 329 passes for 4874 yards and 35 touchdowns in 60 games. Having him healthy for a full season, along with Eifert and Jones, would do wonders for a receiving corps that was running on fumes by playoff time last season.

With all the injuries, Mohamed Sanu (the only wideout to catch a pass in the playoff loss) was their leader in snaps played at wide receiver with 1014, making him one of 7 wide receivers to play more than 1000 snaps last season. Simply put, that’s not good, as Sanu was very overstretched as a #1 receiver. His slash line doesn’t look terrible (56/780/5) and he had some big games, but he was very inefficient, catching just 57.7% of his targets and averaging just 1.50 yards per route. He also had a league leading 14 drops. As a result, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 88^th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. This is nothing new for him as he graded out 93^rd out of 111 eligible in 2013, in the first season of significant action in his career. The 2012 3^rd round pick fits much better as a 3^rd receiver behind AJ Green and Marvin Jones on a run heavy team.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I’ve alluded to, the Bengals were a run heavy team last season, with 492 carries, 5^th most in the NFL, as compared to 503 pass attempts, 25^th in the NFL. That was the biggest change in their offense as they went from Jay Gruden (now head coach of the Redskins) to Hue Jackson at offensive coordinator last season. Hue Jackson is known for his power run heavy offenses and he really wanted to rely on that and reduce the amount of the offensive burden that fell on Andy Dalton and the passing offense.

It seemed like that would lead to a big year from Giovani Bernard, a 2013 2^nd round pick who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked running back in 2013 on 226 touches. However, Bernard proved to be a bad fit for the power running offense. The 5-9 208 pounder is a great passing down back who has caught 99 passes in 29 career games and he provides a nice change of pace as a runner, but he’s only averaged 4.07 yards per carry in his career. Even in 2013, his strong rookie year, he only averaged 4.09 yards per carry and graded out 28^th among running backs in run grade, only excelling in pass protection and as a receiver.

The running back who had a big year carrying the ball was Jeremy Hill, a 2014 2^nd round pick who averaged 5.06 yards per carry as a rookie, rushing for 1124 yards and 9 touchdowns on 222 carries. The Bengals quickly figured out that Hill was the better lead back and gave him an average of 19.1 carries per game over the final 9 games of the season, as opposed to 7.1 carries per game over the first 7 games of the season. Bernard, meanwhile, saw 15.6 carries per game over the first 7 games of the season, but just 9.8 over the final 9 games of the season (he did miss 3 games with injury).

As a result, Hill rushed for 929 yards and 6 touchdowns on 172 carries (5.40 yards per carry) over the final 9 games of the season, which extrapolates to 1652 yards and 11 touchdowns on 306 carries over a 16 game season. Hill is unlikely to maintain that average over a full season, but he could easily get 250-300 carries this season and turn them into 1200+ yards. He’s not a great passing down back, but he and Bernard complement each other very well because Hill is a powerful between the tackles runner on early downs and Bernard is a good speed complement with great passing down abilities. It’s a strong backfield.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Part of the Bengals’ strong running game was their strong offensive line, which ranked 7^th on Pro Football Focus’ in run blocking grade. The Bengals did have an injury on the offensive line as right tackle Andre Smith missed 7 games with injuries, including a torn triceps that ended his season week 12 and will likely have him sidelined until training camp. Smith was struggled before going down with the injury as well, grading out below average for the first time since 2010, his 2^nd year in the league. Smith will need to have a bounce back year this year because he’s going into a contract year. Purely a right tackle, Smith graded out 28^th among offensive tackles in 2011, 4^th in 2012, and 19^th in 2013 before last year’s poor season.

The Bengals certainly put the heat on Smith during the draft by adding offensive tackles in the first two rounds of the draft, Cedric Ogbuehi in the first and Jake Fisher in the second. Smith is unlikely to lose his starting job to either one of them this season (especially since Ogbuehi is expected to miss the start of the season with a torn ACL he suffered in Texas A&M’s bowl game), unless he gets hurt again, but it’s not a good sign for his future in the team in 2016 and beyond. It really doesn’t seem like they want to keep him after he hits free agency next off-season.

Smith isn’t the only starting offensive tackle going into a contract year, as Andrew Whitworth is as well. Whitworth, who is going into his age 34 season, also has reason to worry about his future with the team. The Bengals have reportedly already told him that they’re not bringing him back next off-season. It’s a shame because, despite his age, Whitworth is still playing at a very high level, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked offensive tackle last season. He could see his abilities fall off a cliff in the next couple of seasons because of his age and getting Fisher, a borderline 1^st round talent, in the late 2^nd round was a great value, but I didn’t see the need to take Ogbuehi 21^st overall, especially when he’s rehabbing a torn ACL.

If I had to guess, the Bengals won’t bring back either Whitworth or Smith next off-season and Ogbuehi and Fisher will be the starters in 2016, even though they’ll both be unproven. It’s a weird move to give up on both Smith and Whitworth’s long-term future with the team this early, especially since the Bengals could have just drafted an offensive tackle early in next year’s draft if they needed to. The Bengals had more pressing needs at other positions (namely defensive tackle) and are built to contend now. Using your first two picks on players who you don’t expect to play as rookies doesn’t make a ton of sense.

As I mentioned, Whitworth played outstanding last season, but that’s nothing new for him. Whitworth has made 94 of 96 starts since 2009 and has graded 12^th, 1^st, 9^th, 9^th, 15^th, and 2^ndamong offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2009-2014 respectively. The only season he graded out worse than 12^th at his position was 2013, when he made just 9 starts at offensive tackle, as he missed 2 games with injury, and also made 5 starts at guard, where he graded out 7^th, despite the limited action there. No one graded out better than him on fewer snaps at either positon and his composite grade would have been 1^st among offensive tackles and 3^rd among guards. It’s a highly impressive mix of versatility and dominance by a player who is quietly one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL. His age is definitely a concern, but he could easily have another dominant year this year. He’s reportedly not happy the Bengals used their first two draft picks on offensive tackles. The Bengals better hope that Whitworth doesn’t holdout in pursuit of a pay raise for 2015 (as he recently hinted at on Twitter).

Still, while there were definitely better uses of their first round pick, the Bengals do have a strong offensive line overall, assuming Smith is healthy and bounces back and Whitworth doesn’t hold out and doesn’t see his abilities fall off of a cliff. Things are also very good at guard. On the left side, Clint Boling was re-signed to a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal, a great value considering Orlando Franklin and Mike Iupati, comparably talented guards, got 36.5 and 40 million respectively over 5 years. Boling, a 2011 4th round pick, barely played as a rookie (175 snaps), but he’s been a starter over the past 3 seasons, making 44 of 48 starts (2 of which were at right tackle) and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked guard in 2012, 18th ranked in 2013, and 19th ranked in 2014.

On the other side is Kevin Zeitler, a 2012 1^st round pick. Zeitler was a starter from day 1 and has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th, 27^th, and 9^th ranked guard in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. If there’s one issue with Zeitler, it’s that he’s missed some time with injury, missing 8 games over the past 2 seasons with a variety of minor lower body injuries. Still, it was a no brainer decision by the Bengals to pick up his 5^th year option for 2016, which is guaranteed for injury only. The Bengals should look to extend him long-term at some point soon.

The only real hole the Bengals have on the offensive line is at center, a position they didn’t address in the draft at all. They clearly like Russell Bodine, a 2014 4^th round pick who made all 16 starts for the Bengals as a rookie. However, his rookie year left a lot to be desired, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 33^rd ranked center out of 41 eligible, especially struggling in pass protection. It’s possible he improves in his 2^nd year in the league, but he also wasn’t a highly rated prospect by the league coming out of college, as evidenced by the fact that he fell to the 4^th round, so there definitely aren’t any guarantees. It’s still a strong offensive line though on an offense that should be a lot better this season in Hue Jackson’s 2^nd season as offensive coordinator, with better health, and with a full season of Jeremy Hill as the lead back.

Grade: A

Defensive Tackle

The defense was also noticeably worse in 2014 than it was in 2013 for the Bengals. In 2013, they actually finished the season 1^st in rate of moving the chains differential, but that fell to 14^th in 2014. However, unlike on offense, injuries weren’t the issue. In fact, the Bengals had above average injury luck last season, in terms of adjusted games lost. They did have some injuries and the ones they did have were impactful (more on that later), but the biggest issue was just a complete lack of depth and players playing big roles that should not have been playing those roles. In 2014, there were just 5 Bengals who played more than 100 snaps that graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. In 2013, that number was 13.

One of those players who played a significant role in 2014 that should not have was starting defensive tackle Domata Peko, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 80^th ranked defensive tackle out of 81 eligible last season. Of course, Peko also struggled in 2013 as the weak link on that strong Cincinnati defense, grading out 66^th out of 69 eligible, but that’s even more reason why the Bengals should have used the 21^st overall pick on a defensive tackle like Malcolm Brown, who fell to New England at 32. Peko is now going into his age 31 season so he’s not going to get better and the only defensive tackle the Bengals drafted was Marcus Hardison, a 4^th rounder who won’t be an upgrade over Peko as a rookie. Reserves Brandon Thompson and Devon Still also struggled mightily in limited action last season.

Peko will once again slot in next to Geno Atkins. Atkins didn’t miss any time with injuries, playing all 16 games, but he tore his ACL in 2013 and he really wasn’t the same player upon his return, grading out 20^th among defensive tackles in 2014. That’s pretty good, but the Bengals need Atkins to become the dominant player he was before the injury. A 2010 4^th round pick, Atkins graded out 7^th among defensive tackles as a rotational player as a rookie and then graded out #1 in both 2011 and 2012 as a starter. There was a time when he looked like arguably the most dominant defensive player in the game other than JJ Watt. In 2013, before the injury, he looked on his way to a similarly dominant year, grading out 4^th at his position through week 8 before tearing his ACL week 9. He’ll be about 22 months removed from the injury by week 1 and, only going into his age 27 season, there’s a good chance he regains his prior form, or at least has a better year than 2013. That’ll be a big boost for this defense.

Atkins wasn’t to blame for their poor defensive line play last season though. Atkins (and Carlos Dunlap) graded out above average, but there were also completely overmatched players playing significant roles, which led to just 20 sacks by the Bengals, worst in the NFL. I already mentioned Domata Peko at defensive tackle (and to a lesser extent Thompson and Still), but at defensive end it was Wallace Gilberry and Robert Geathers who struggled mightily. The Bengals have drafted Margus Hunt (2^nd round in 2013) and Will Clarke (3^rd round in 2014) in recent years, but neither of them could get on the field last season, which is telling. Hunt has struggled through 352 snaps in 2 seasons and is already going into his age 28 season, while Clarke played just 64 nondescript snaps as a rookie. The Bengals really missed Michael Johnson, who signed with the Buccaneers last off-season on a 5-year, 43 million dollar deal.

The good news is that Johnson is now back. Johnson struggled mightily in his one season in Tampa Bay, prompting the Buccaneers to cut him even though he still had guaranteed money on his contract for 2015 and eat the 16 million they guaranteed him. Johnson struggled mightily, grading out 53^rd out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, but he’s generally been a good player in his career and his poor play last season could be as a result of an ankle injury he suffered early in the season. He’s a candidate for a bounce back year in 2015 and the Buccaneers likely gave him up on too early. Their loss should be Cincinnati’s gain and he’ll likely be extra motivated by getting cut.

The 4-year, 24 million dollar deal the Bengals signed Johnson to is a much better value than the 5-year, 43 million dollar deal he signed last off-season in Tampa Bay and they could easily be getting a steal. Prior to last season’s down year, Johnson was one of the better edge rushers in the NFL, hence why he got the big contract. A highly athletic 2009 3rd round pick who struggled to put it all together in the first 3 years of his career, grading out below average in every season from 2009-2011, Johnson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and then proved it again on the franchise tag in 2013, grading out 4th at his position. There’s solid bounce back potential here.

Meanwhile, Geathers, who graded out dead last among eligible defensive ends in 2014, was cut this off-season, while Gilberry will slot into the 3^rd defensive end spot with Johnson coming in. Gilberry struggled last year in a starting role, grading out 46^th out of 59 eligible defensive ends. He’s had some success in the past, but he’s only graded out above average in 2 of 7 seasons in his career since going undrafted in 2008 and he’s largely been a reserve journeyman, going from Kansas City, to Tampa Bay, and now Cincinnati. Already going into his age 31 season, he’s a better fit as a 3^rd defensive end, but the Bengals are probably hoping that either Clarke or Hunt can push him for that role.

Carlos Dunlap will line up across from Johnson once again. Dunlap, a 2010 2^nd round pick, has been a consistently solid player throughout his career, grading out above average in all 5 seasons of his career. As a rookie in 2010, he graded out 21^st on 287 snaps as a rotational player and then he graded out 4^th, 9^th, 8^th, and 15^th in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. With Johnson returning and Atkins another year removed from the injury, this should be an improved defensive line this season. I wish they would have upgraded Peko either through free agency or the draft and their depth is still suspect, but it’s now a solid group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The one major injury the Bengals had on defense was a significant one, as it was to linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Prior to 2014, Burfict was on a good career trajectory, making 14 starts and grading out above average as an undrafted rookie in 2012 and then grading out 4^th among eligible 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013. However, Burfict was limited to 223 snaps in 5 games last season thanks to knee problems, which greatly hampered him when on the field and caused him to grade out below average. Burfict had microfracture surgery in January, which is a very serious procedure, and now it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of the season. It’s going to be tough to count on more from him in 2015.

Beyond Burfict, the rest of the Bengals’ linebacking corps is also very much in flux. Vincent Rey actually led Bengal linebackers in snaps played last season with 952 snaps last season. He flashed on 324 snaps in 2013 in his first significant career action, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked middle linebacker. However, Rey struggled mightily at middle linebacker in 2014, grading out 49^th out of 60 eligible on 304 snaps. He redeemed himself at outside linebacker, grading out above average, 22^nd among 4-3 outside linebackers, but he still graded out below average on the season. He’s only graded out above average in 1 of 5 seasons in his career, so, while he’s flashed, the 2010 undrafted free agent is probably best as a versatile reserve. He may have to start if Burfict misses time with injury though.

Emmanuel Lamur was 2^nd on the team in snaps played last season, playing 905 snaps and making 13 starts at outside linebacker. He really struggled through, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst 4-3 outside linebacker. The 2012 undrafted free agent flashed as a reserve on 104 snaps as a rookie, but then missed all of 2013 with injury before last year’s disastrous season. He’s unlikely to be much better this season. The Bengals used a 3rd round pick on Paul Dawson and he could push Lamur for snaps outside as a rookie.

Inside at middle linebacker, a pair of veterans, Rey Maualuga and AJ Hawk will compete. Maualuga started his career at outside linebacker and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th and 11^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2009 and 2010 respectively, after the Bengals took him in the 2nd round in 2009. However, the Bengals moved him to middle linebacker for 2011 and it’s been a steady decline. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 eligible in 2011 and worst ranked in 2012.

He was re-signed to a 2-year deal after that disastrous 2012 season, but he started seeing progressively fewer passing down snaps, playing 610 snaps in 2013 and 452 snaps in 2014. He graded out below average in both 2013 and 2014 once again and he missed 7 games with injuries combined in those 2 seasons. He’s decent against the run, but horrible in coverage. He’d be best off as a two-down 4-3 outside linebacker, but the Bengals seem intent on keeping him inside, after re-signing him to a 3-year deal worth an inexplicable 15 million. Ideally, he doesn’t play a lot of passing downs, but the Bengals might not have that option.

AJ Hawk was signed for 3.25 million over 2 years this off-season so he’s likely just insurance behind Maualuga and maybe Burfict. Hawk made 139 starts for the Packers after they drafted him 5th overall in 2006, but he’s only graded out above average once on Pro Football Focus in the site’s 8-year history. He had his salary cut and his contract renegotiated several times and eventually ran out of chances this off-season, going into his age 31 season. He came off the bench 3 times last season, the first time he played in a game in which he wasn’t a starter in his career, and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible. The Packers saved 3.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season and he rightfully didn’t draw a lot of interest on the open market. It’s an overall weak linebacking corps with a lot of question. The group looks a lot better if Burfict is healthy, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As I mentioned earlier, I don’t expect the Bengals to get much use out of 1^st round pick Cedric Ogbuehi as a rookie. This is nothing new for the Bengals, as they used first round picks on cornerbacks in 2012 (Dre Kirkpatrick) and 2014 (Darqueze Dennard) and had them play 43 and 61 snaps as rookies respectively. Kirkpatrick is finally going to be getting a chance at a starting cornerback in his 4^th year in the league this year, with the veteran Terence Newman, who graded out slightly below average last season, gone as a free agent to Minnesota this off-season. Despite being in his 4^th year in the league, Kirkpatrick is really inexperienced, grading out below average on 309 snaps in 2013 and then on 248 snaps in 2014. Thus far he’s looked like a bust, but he’s finally getting a chance at serious action this season.

Dennard is unlikely to get serious action this season though, unless someone gets hurt or struggles and needs to get benched, as he’s currently penciled in as the 4^th cornerback. Veterans Adam Jones and Leon Hall remain, going into their age 32 and age 31 seasons respectively. Dennard likely won’t get a significant role until next season, after Jones and Hall hit free agency this off-season. Hall made 15 starts for the Bengals in 2014, but graded out below average last season for the first time in his 8-year career. That shouldn’t be a surprise considering he tore his Achilles twice and had a 3 year stretch from 2011-2013 where he played 28 games. Now going into his age 31 season, Hall’s best days are likely behind him. Why the Bengals didn’t cut him to save 7.8 million on the cap, put Dennard into a starting role, and use that money to find a better defensive tackle is beyond me.

Jones played better than Hall last season, working primarily as a 3^rd corner and slot corner, where he’ll continue to play this season. Off-the-field problems limited Jones, once the 6^th overall pick in 2005, to 22 games from 2007-2011, but he’s gotten his act together and played in all 48 games over the past 3 seasons, making 21 starts and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He’s getting up there in age, but could have another solid season as the 3^rd cornerback. He might be their best cornerback. He was one of the 5 Bengal defenders to grade out above average on Pro Football Focus last season.

Joining Jones in that group of 5, along with Dunlap and Atkins, are the Bengals’ two starting safeties, George Iloka and Reggie Nelson. Iloka was a 2012 5^th round pick and has been a breakout player for the Bengals over the past 2 seasons. After not playing a defensive snap as a rookie in 2012, Iloka graded out 20^th among safeties in 2013 and then 12^th among safeties in 2014. It’s the kind of progress you love to see out of a young player, especially one who is only going into his age 25 season. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 38.7% of their passes throwing at him last season, with no touchdowns to 3 interceptions. He’s a prime extension candidate as we get later into the off-season.

Nelson, meanwhile, is going into his age 32 season, but he’s still playing at a high level, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 21^st safety last season. An inconsistent player early in his career in Jacksonville, the former 1^st round pick has graded out above average in all 5 seasons he’s been in Cincinnati, maxing out at 7^th in 2012. While they have issues at cornerback with a mix of aging players and inexperienced youngsters, they’re very solid at safety.

Overall, it’s a solid defense that could be improved over last year’s squad (unless they have more injuries), but they have a lot of holes and weaknesses still (defensive tackle, linebacker, and cornerback come to mind) and it’s a far cry from the top level squad they were in 2013. One fact of good news, their defense did get a lot better as last season went on, which could be attributed to young, first year defensive coordinator Paul Guenther improving on the job and becoming more comfortable in that new role. Over the final 8 games of the season, they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 68.94% rate, as opposed to 74.38% over the first 8 games of the season. Guenther probably won’t ever be as good as Mike Zimmer (now head coach of the Vikings) was for their defense, but that’s good to see.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Bengals finished the 2013 season as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked team in rate of moving the chains differential, but saw that fall to 16^th in 2014. That didn’t show up in the win/loss record, as they went from 11-5 to 10-5-1, but they were vastly different teams. This season, they should be right about in between. They’ll be healthier on offense and have Jeremy Hill as the lead back all season and their defense should be better too. Going into the 2nd year with their coordinators, after having two 1st time coordinators last season, should also help. However, they still have holes. I think they’re behind Baltimore in the AFC North, just like Pittsburgh. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Bengals after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC North

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Steelers made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2011, way back when Tim Tebow knocked them out of the playoffs. In 2012 and 2013, they went 8-8 both times, before winning 11 games and the AFC North in 2014. Oddly enough, the Steelers did not do it in traditional Steeler fashion, which is leading the way with their defense. Their defense ended this season ranked 25^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Instead, it was their high-powered offense, which finished 3^rd in rate of moving the chains, that led the team to rank 7^th in rate of moving the chains differential, en route to the playoffs.

Ben Roethlisberger led the way at quarterback, completing 67.1% of his passes (a career high) for an average of 8.15 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. That led to a quarterback rating of 103.3, 3^rd in the NFL and the 2^nd best of Roethlisberger’s career. Since 2007, the first year in Pro Football Focus’ history, he’s made 118 starts and ranked 4^th, 26^th, 6^th, 6^th, 7^th, 7^th, 11^th, and 3^rd in those 8 seasons respectively, leading up to last season’s career best. He joins Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers as the only quarterbacks to rank in the top-11 in each of the past 6 seasons.

In 159 career games, he’s completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.88 YPA, 251 touchdowns, and 131 interceptions. A 2004 1^st round pick, Roethlisberger is already going into his age 34 season, but plenty of good quarterbacks have continued that success into their mid-30s. The Steelers are betting on that, locking up their franchise quarterback for another 5 years and 99 million this off-season, ahead of his contract year.

Roethlisberger had a lot of help on offense and much of their improved offensive performance and even Roethlisberger’s improved numbers themselves weren’t solely the result of Roethlisberger’s improved play. Part of why he had such improved play around him is because literally no one got hurt. The Steelers finished the season 4^th in adjusted games lost, including 1^st in adjusted games lost on offense. Only 9 offenses since 2003 had as good of injury luck as the Steelers had last season. That’s unlikely to continue.

Roethlisberger himself could even get hurt. He’s played all 32 games on the last 2 seasons, but prior to that he had played all 16 games once in 9 career seasons. Part of the reason for his recent improved health is a much improved offensive line (more on that later). Part of it is the switch to Todd Haley’s quicker throw offense which, after some minor early kinks and major public criticism, has led to Roethlisberger having the best 3-year QB rating out of any stretch of his career. However, part of why he hasn’t been getting hurt lately is something that could regress to the mean. Even if Roethlisberger stays healthy for all 16 games, the same is not likely to be true about his supporting cast.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Steelers have not had any major injuries just yet, but they are already expected to be without one player for the start of the season. That player is Le’Veon Bell. That’s bad news because, when Bell got hurt in Pittsburgh’s week 17 game last season, knocking him out for the playoffs, it made the Steelers a noticeably different offense, leading to a home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round. Bell is currently suspended for the first 3 weeks of the season for a marijuana and DUI arrest. He’s appealing to get the suspension reduced and it’s reportedly possible he only misses the opener against New England, but it’s another reminder that they likely won’t be bulletproof offensively again next season.

Bell’s importance to the Steelers wasn’t just proven in the Baltimore loss. It should have been evident all year, as the 2013 2nd round pick broke out as arguably the best running back in the NFL during the regular season, a big part of the reason for Pittsburgh’s offensive dominance. He’s still just a one year wonder, after averaging just 3.52 yards per carry as a rookie, but I think he was the best running back in the NFL last season, apologies to DeMarco Murray.

Murray obviously was the NFL’s leading rusher with 1845 yards, 484 more than Bell who was in 2nd with 1361. However, that’s largely because Murray had more carries, 392 to 290. Bell’s 4.69 YPC was very comparable to Murray’s 4.71, even though Murray ran behind a Dallas offensive line that ranked 2nd in run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus, while Pittsburgh’s ranked 9th. Murray was also much more useful on passing downs, grading out better in pass protection and pass receiving.

Bell’s 83 catches for 853 yards (basically wide receiver numbers) help make up for the difference in yardage totals between Bell and Murray, as Murray caught just 57 passes for 416 yards. Murray only finished with 55 more yards on 69 more touches. While Murray had the higher pure running grade on Pro Football Focus last season (still behind Marshawn Lynch though) Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked running back. Even as a rookie when he averaged a low YPC, he still graded out above average overall, ranking 31^st among running backs, largely because of 45 catches for 399 yards.

It’ll be tough to replace Bell when he’s out, as it was last season. That’s not just because Bell is so good. It’s also because his backups are so bad. Last season when Bell went down, the Steelers had to sign Ben Tate, on his 4th team in a 12-month period. Tate started in the playoff game, despite being signed just a few days prior. Tate had 5 carries in that game. Josh Harris had 9 and Dri Archer had 1. Harris and Archer were both rookies last season. Harris, an undrafted free agent, had 18 carries as a rookie (including playoffs), averaging 2.27 yards per carry. Archer, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick with just 11 carries (including playoffs) as a rookie, averaging 3.54 yards per carry. The 5-8 173 pounder’s potential is, at best, Todd Haley’s new Dexter McCluster. Harris, meanwhile, has shown no signs that he’s remotely a starting caliber running back.

In need of a veteran presence, the Steelers signed DeAngelo Williams as a free agent this off-season. Bell to Williams is about as steep of a downgrade as you can get at running back. He was released by the Panthers this off-season, even though doing so only saved them 2 million immediately and he’ll be on their cap still for 2016, because of the fact that he is going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he missed 10 games with injury and averaged just 3.53 yards per carry. The Steelers better hope that Bell is only suspended for one game. And even if he is only suspended for one game, the Steelers will have injuries offensively this season, something they just didn’t have to deal with last season until the worst possible time.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Steelers’ offense was led by their version of the triplets last season, Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, and top wide receiver Antonio Brown. With Calvin Johnson nursing injuries last season, Brown took over the mantle of the best receiver in the NFL and, with Johnson getting older, it’s possible Brown keeps that title this season. Brown doesn’t win with height/weight/speed like Johnson at 5-10 186, but he has dependable hands, is the best route runner in the NFL, and is tough to take down in the open field.

Brown led the league in catches and receiving yards last season, catching 129 passes (2^nd most in a single season in NFL history) on 178 targets (72.5%) for 1698 yards and 13 touchdowns on 638 routes run, an average of 2.66 yards per route run, 7^th in the NFL among eligible receivers. His 5 drops give him a remarkably low drop rate and his 17 broken tackles were the 4^th most in the NFL by a wide receiver. He’s not a one year wonder either, grading out 3^rd at his position in 2013 (1^st in pass catching grade), catching 110 passes on 159 attempts (69.2%) for 1499 yards and 8 touchdowns on 609 routes run, an average of 2.37 yards per route run, 7^th among eligible receivers. He also ranked 7^th among wide receivers overall in 2011, one of three 1000+ yard seasons in 5 years in the league.

Perhaps most impressively, Brown has caught at least 5 passes in 33 straight games (including playoffs), which demolished the previous NFL record of 19. Remarkably consistent, Brown has morphed into the top receiver in the NFL since Mike Wallace left Pittsburgh two off-seasons ago, proving the Steelers made the right choice by re-signing Brown to a 5-year, 43 million dollar extension 3 off-seasons ago and letting Wallace leave on a 5-year, 60 million dollar contract the following off-season. It was a risky move by the Steelers because Brown had only played 2 seasons in the NFL before he got the extension, but it paid off in a big way as that contract might be the best value in the NFL, not including rookie contracts. Only going into his age 27 season, Brown is under contract for 3 more years.

The Steelers have solid depth at the position too so Roethlisberger has plenty of options. Markus Wheaton was 2^nd among wide receivers in receiving yards last season (4^th on the team behind Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and tight end Heath Miller) with 53 catches for 644 yards and 2 touchdowns. After barely playing as a 3^rd round rookie in 2013, Wheaton played 760 snaps in 2014 and graded out about average. He’s a decent complementary piece, but could see his role reduced in 2015 because the Steelers have a pair of freak athletes waiting in the wings.

One of those freak athletes is Martavis Bryant, who ran a 4.42 40 at 6-4 211 at the combine, but fell to the 4^th round of the 2014 draft after widely being considered a top-2 round prospect by the media because of how raw he was. The Steelers snatched him up there and it seems to have paid off thus far. Bryant only played 306 snaps total as a rookie, but he definitely flashed big play ability, grading out above average and catching 26 passes for 549 yards and 8 touchdowns on 48 targets (54.2%). He did that despite only running 200 routes, an average of 2.75 yards per route run that ranked 3^rd among eligible receivers, even better than Brown.

He’s still pretty unproven and he has a lot of things he needs to get better at, but his big play ability is real. Bryant should be better in 2015 and should be considered the favorite to start opposite Brown, with Wheaton moving into the 3^rd receiver role. Bryant is still raw and likely won’t reach his potential until his 3^rd year in the league, but he’s on a good track and the combination of his height/weight/speed opposite Brown could give the Steelers a deadly receiving duo in the future.

The Steelers other freak athlete at wide receiver is Sammie Coates, who ran a 4.43 40 at 6-1 212, before the Steelers made him a 2015 3^rd round pick. He’s extremely raw and is no guarantee to even contribute in the way that Bryant did as a rookie, but he has great long-term upside and could eventually be the #3 receiver. For now, he’ll provide good depth as the 4^th receiver, necessary because Justin Brown, the 4^th receiver last year, struggled mightily when called on.

Mr. Dependable Heath Miller is still around, catching 66 passes for 761 yards and 3 touchdowns last season, 3^rd on the Steelers behind Brown and Bell. The problem is he’s going into his age 33 season and the Steelers simply cannot count on him to play the position leading 1103 snaps he played last season. Somewhere in the 700-800 snap range is more appropriate for him at this stage of his career, but the Steelers’ only other capable tight end last season was Matt Spaeth, a pure blocker who played just 348 snaps last season. He’s also going into his age 31 season.

The Steelers used a 5^th round pick on Jesse James as a result, but he’s far from being ready so, if Heath Miller gets hurt or declines significantly, the Steelers don’t have many options. Miller is also not the player he used to be, grading out slightly below average in each of the last 2 seasons, after grading out 2^nd among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in 2011 and 15^th in 2012. The Steelers’ lack of tight end depth is a problem, but it’s one that’s offset by good wide receiver depth.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The triplets were obviously a big part of the Steelers’ offensive success last season, but, as is often the case, they also had a strong offensive line to make life easier, grading out 5^th among teams in pass block grade on Pro Football Focus and 9^th in run block grade. The best player upfront for them last season was left tackle Kelvin Beachum, who had a breakout 3^rd year in the league. The 2012 7^th round pick made 17 starts in 2012 and 2013, 11 at left tackle, 5 at right tackle, and 1 at center, but graded out below average in both seasons. However, in 2014, Beachum graded out 5^th among offensive tackles, excelling in pass protection. He’s still a one year wonder, which is important to remember, but he’s a talented player. Going into the contract year of his rookie deal, he’s an extension candidate this off-season.

Right tackle Marcus Gilbert has the distinction of being the Steelers’ only real regular season injury on offense last season, missing 4 games. He was very much missed while he was hurt because his replacement, swing tackle Mike Adams, was once again horrendous. The Steelers are lucky they found Beachum in the 7^th round in 2012 because Adams, their 2^nd round pick that year, has graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league, including 59^th out of 76 eligible on 485 snaps in 2013 and 65^th out of 84 eligible on 372 snaps in 2014. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a 2011 2^nd round pick and he’s worked out better. He’s made 46 starts in 4 seasons in the league and, while last year was the best year of his career, when he graded out 23^rd among offensive tackles, he’s graded out above average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league. The Steelers extended him last off-season ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, giving him a 5-year, 30 million dollar extension.

Gilbert and Adams are not the only offensive linemen the Steelers have used high draft picks on in recent years. The Steelers took Maurkice Pouncey in the first round in 2010 and David DeCastro in the first round in 2012. Only Adams hasn’t really worked out and Beachum made up for that. This has given the Steelers not only a talented offensive line, but a young offensive line. DeCastro’s career didn’t get off to a great start as he was limited to 138 snaps as a rookie in 2012 because of knee problems, but he’s made 31 starts in the past 2 seasons combined, grading out 14^th in 2013 and 19^th in 2014. The Steelers picked up his 5^th year option for 2016 and they’re expected to try to sign him to a long-term extension over the next year or so.

Pouncey also suffered a major knee injury, tearing his ACL in week 1 of 2013 and missing the rest of the season, but, like DeCastro, he’s been able to persevere. The Steelers signed him to a then record 5 year, 44 million dollar extension last off-season, even though he hadn’t played since the ACL year, which shows how much they like this guy. He hasn’t been the top tier center that kind of money suggests and it was an overpay, especially off of the ACL tear, but he’s still a valuable member of this offensive line.

He’s made 62 starts in 5 seasons in the league, even though he lost basically all of 2013 to the ACL tear, and he’s graded out above average in every healthy season since he’s been in the league, maxing out at 6^th overall among centers on Pro Football Focus in 2014, very good to see after an injury like he suffered in 2013. Only going into his age 26 season, Pouncey should have another strong season in 2015 and could even get better.

The only weak point on the offensive line was left guard Ramon Foster, who graded out slightly below average last season. He’s been better in the past though, grading out above average in 2011, 2012, and 2013, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked guard in 2013. He’s made 60 of 64 starts over the past 4 seasons. Only going into his age 29 season, there’s bounce back potential for Foster. He’s a starting caliber guard either way though and if he’s your worst offensive lineman you’re doing pretty well. It’s a strong offensive line on a strong offense, but they won’t be bulletproof again this year and, when injuries strike, their untested depth will become tested, which could easily show up in the win/loss column.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the defense really didn’t play well last season, finishing 25^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. While the offense should have more injuries this season, the defense won’t necessarily have more injuries, as they finished 17^th in adjusted games lost, but you also can’t call injuries the reason why they played poorly last season. In fact, overall as the team, they finished 4^th in adjusted games lost, something that should regress to the mean this season.

The reason why their defense was so bad last season is because their once dominant defense of a few years ago got old all at the same time and they didn’t do a good job of replacing players. Part of that is draft and free agent mistakes, but part of that is simply that the Steelers focused more of their resources on the offense over the past few years and it shows. Last season, they Steelers had 4 starters who were 30+ years old on defense. They only have one right now because three of them either retired or remain unsigned as free agents, but they also didn’t replace any of those guys so it should once again be a thin unit. Also gone is legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. LeBeau, going into his age 78 season, and the Steelers agreed to a mutual split (if you believe reports) and now he has an assistant job with Tennessee’s defensive staff.

Brett Keisel was one of those over 30 players. He graded out right about average last season on 451 snaps as a 3-4 defensive end, but was released anyway by the Steelers this off-season, ahead of his age 37 season. He hasn’t officially retired and isn’t ruling out playing again next season, but he’s drawn no known interest on the open market and I ultimately expect him to announce the end of his 13-year NFL career, all with the Steelers. Stephon Tuitt, a 2014 2^nd round pick, was drafted with this situation in mind and he’ll take over as an every down player at 3-4 defensive end, after playing just 405 snaps as a rookie. The problem is he was horrible as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 40^th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 47 eligible, despite the limited playing time. He’ll have to get a lot better in his 2^nd year in the league.

Cameron Heyward will be an every down player opposite him. The 2011 1^st round pick is one of the few bright spots of this defense. Heyward has graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, including the last 2 as a starter, making 32 of 32 starts. He graded out 19^th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2013 and then had the best year of his career in 2014, grading out 6^th at his position. He’ll make a very reasonable 6.969 million dollars on his 5^th year option in 2015 and the Steelers are expected to try to sign him to an extension this off-season, ahead of his contract year. He’s one they can’t afford to lose.

At nose tackle between Tuitt and Heyward, Cam Thomas and Steve McLendon will compete for the starting job. McLendon should win that job, after making 11 starts there last season and grading out above average. It’s very much a part-time role in Pittsburgh’s system and McLendon doesn’t get any pass rush, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 24^th ranked defensive tackle last season on just 305 snaps. This is nothing new for McLendon. That’s been the book on him for the past few years, as the 2009 undrafted free agent has done a nice job carving out a niche in the NFL. He’s graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, but has never played more than 355 snaps in a season and has graded out below average as a pass rusher in each of the last 2 seasons.

That would put Thomas into a top reserve role at 3-4 defensive end, the role he played last season. It’s a better spot for him, but, after he played as poorly as he did last season, the Steelers should not be confident in him in any role he plays. Thomas graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. He’s only a rotational player, but he actually doesn’t play that many fewer snaps than McLendon. In fact, last season, he played more than McLendon, playing 443 snaps to his 305.

That’s partially because McLendon missed 4 games with injury and Thomas didn’t miss any, but it’s still a reminder that Thomas still plays a significant role for them on defense, as terribly as he played last season. The Steelers better hope he bounces back. While in San Diego in 2011 and 2012, he graded out above average on 395 snaps in 2011 and 404 snaps in 2012, playing both nose tackle and 3-4 defensive end at 6-4 330. However, he graded out as the 51st ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013 and then things got even worse in his first year in Pittsburgh. Thus far, it looks like he was a free agent bust on a 2-year, 4 million dollar deal, but the Steelers kept him at a 2 million dollar non-guaranteed salary.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Jason Worilds used to be a talented young player for the Steelers defensively, like Cameron Heyward is now. A 2010 2^nd round pick, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and then 11^th last season. However, foregoing a deal that would have been worth upwards of 40 million over 5 years, Worilds retired unexpectedly this off-season, ahead of his age 27 season. The Steelers likely weren’t going to be able to re-sign him as a free agent this off-season anyway for cap reasons, but it still a shocking move. It’s especially weird that he retired while James Harrison, who is going into his age 37 season, returned for his 13^th (12 with the Steelers) NFL season in 2015. He’s the final remaining of the 30+ year olds on Pittsburgh’s defense, but he still played at a high level last season.

Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better. He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season, making it two straight seasons that could be said about him and at two different positions.

Harrison will rotate with three other players, including a pair of recent 1^st round picks. One of those players is Jarvis Jones, a 2013 1^st round pick who has all the looks of a bust through 2 seasons in the league. Jones fell to the Steelers at 17^th overall because of injury concerns and he has played in just 23 of 32 games in 2 seasons in the NFL, playing just 646 snaps in 2013 and 237 snaps in 2014. He also hasn’t been very good when on the field, grading out below average in both seasons, which is why he was essentially benched for James Harrison down the stretch last season after returning from injury, playing just 11 snaps in week 16 and week 17 combined. It’s a little too early to write him off as a bust, but he’s entering a make or break 3^rd season in the league.

The other recent 1^st round pick at the 3-4 outside linebacker spot is Bud Dupree, a rookie who has great athleticism, but also a fair amount of bad tape against quality opponents. It could be a tough transition for the ex-Kentucky Wildcat. Arthur Moats will be the 4^th outside linebacker. He did well on 344 snaps last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker despite the limited playing time, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. Prior to last season, Moats, a 2010 6^th round pick, spent the first 4 years of his career as a situational player in Buffalo, maxing out at 409 snaps, but grading out above average in each of the final 3 seasons, playing middle linebacker, outside linebacker, and defensive end. The 6-0 246 pounder isn’t that athletic, but he’s a decent pass rusher that’s strong against the run and a solid part-time player. He’ll see the majority of his snaps in base packages.

At middle linebacker, Lawrence Timmons is locked into one spot, as he has been since the Steelers drafted him in the 1^st round in 2007. He’s played in 126 of 128 games since then and has generally been a very solid player, grading out above average in 6 of the last 7 seasons, including four top-10 finishes among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus and three top-5 finishes. Last season, he graded out 11^th and, only going into his age 29 season, he should have another solid season in 2015. Behind Heyward, he’s their best defensive player and arguably one of just two above average starters on this unit.

Opposite him at the other middle linebacker spot, the Steelers have a few options. Sean Spence made 8 starts in that spot last season, but he struggled on 510 snaps, grading out 41^st among 60 eligible middle linebackers. The series of brutal knee injuries that cost Spence his first 2 seasons in the NFL entirely seem to have sapped the abilities of the 2012 3^rd round pick. Vince Williams is another option. The 2013 6^th round pick played just 253 snaps last season, but made 11 starts in 2013, though he was just a two-down run stopper and graded out below average on 405 snaps. Safety Troy Polamalu even played some linebacker last season, but he’s since retired (more on that later). Most likely, it’ll be Ryan Shazier in that spot. Shazier is a 2014 1^st round pick who was limited to 260 snaps in 8 games last season thanks to injuries, grading out below average in the process. He got the week 1 start last year before the injuries though and it’s his job to lose right now.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As weak as the Steelers’ defense was last season, the secondary was arguably their weakest unit. William Gay played decently, grading out above average and ranking 31^st among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’ll once again be their top cornerback in 2015. He’s definitely not a bad player, but he’s the type of guy where, if he’s your best cornerback, you’re probably in trouble. Gay, a 2007 5^th round pick, started his career in Pittsburgh, grading out above average in 3 of 4 seasons from 2008-2011, but then he went to Arizona in 2012 and struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 105^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible. That led to his release after one year and then he rejoined the Steelers, grading out above average again in 2013 and 2014. He’s not a great cornerback, but he’s a solid player and a valuable part of an overall weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Ike Taylor was a long-term Steeler cornerback, but he retired this off-season ahead of what would have been his age 35 season, after 12 years in the league, all with Pittsburgh. Taylor was a shell of his former self in his final few years so he won’t really be missed on the field. The Steelers used a 2^nd round pick on Senquez Golston to replace him long-term, but the 5-9 176 pounder is undersized and best suited for the slot long-term. He could open the season as the #2 cornerback and move inside in sub packages with a 3^rd cornerback coming in and playing outside, but, more likely, the #2 cornerback job will come down to BW Webb vs. Cortez Allen, with Golston slotting in as a 3^rd cornerback, focused on the slot, as a rookie.

Between Webb and Allen, Allen should be the favorite, but that’s far from a guarantee. Allen was a 3^rd round pick in 2010 and, after not playing much as a rookie, he graded out above average in 2012 and 2013 on 563 and 718 snaps respectively. That earned him a 5-year, 26 million dollar extension, but he bombed in the first year of that extension, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 103^rd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible on 463 snaps before getting benched week 8 and playing solely special teams the rest of the way.

The Steelers couldn’t really cut him this off-season so they brought him back and are expected to give him another shot as a starter, but that’s only because Webb doesn’t present much of a better alternative. Webb, a 2013 4^th round pick, graded out below average as a rookie in 2013 with Dallas, playing 185 snaps, before getting cut by the Cowboys and signing with the Steelers. With Pittsburgh, he played just 4 snaps last season. He’s expected to be the 4^th cornerback, which isn’t good news for a team whose #2 cornerback is coming off of an awful year and whose #3 cornerback is an undersized rookie.

At safety, the Steelers had another 30+ year old leave (along with Keisel and Ike Taylor) and that was long-time Steeler great and future Hall-of-Fame safety Troy Polamalu. Polamalu had a great 12-year career with the Steelers, grading out 5^th overall among safeties as recently as 2013, but he retired ahead of his age 34 season this off-season, after a career that did have its fair share of injuries. To replace him, there will be a battle between the veteran Will Allen and the youngster Shamarko Thomas.

Thomas was a 4^th round pick in 2013 with this situation in mind, but he hasn’t really been able to get onto the field over his first 2 seasons in the league, despite injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. After grading out below average as a rookie on 193 snaps, Thomas played just 2 snaps last season. Allen, meanwhile, played 310 snaps last season and made 4 starts when injuries struck, playing as the #3 safety ahead of Thomas on the depth chart. That would seem to make Allen the favorite, but the journeyman is going into his age 33 season, hasn’t played more than 548 snaps in a season in 8 years, and has only graded out above average once during that stretch. The Steelers might just prefer to see what the youngster has.

In the other safety spot, Michael Mitchell is locked into a starting role, going into the 2^nd year of a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal that he signed with the Steelers last off-season. Mitchell started his career in Oakland as a 2009 2^nd round pick, but graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons there, maxing out at 508 snaps, which forced him to sign a very cheap one-year deal with Carolina for the 2013 season. It turned out to be a steal for the Panthers as Mitchell graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 33^rd ranked safety on 14 games. The Steelers took a chance that he wasn’t just a one-year wonder, signing him to that aforementioned long-term deal after that 2013 season, their only real big-time free agent signing in the last few off-seasons. He made all 16 starts, but graded out below average, coming in at 62^nd out of 87 eligible. He’s still a one-year wonder as an above average starter, but he’s still a decent starter and arguably the Steelers’ 2^nd best defensive back in a weak secondary.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Steelers won with good offense and lost with poor defense last season, something that should be the case again this season. Unfortunately, they could win a little bit less because their offense is going to have more injuries. The defense might be even thinner this season after the loss of Jason Worilds and Troy Polamalu so they can’t really afford even sort of slip up offensively. That might be inevitable though. Their roster isn’t as talented as Baltimore, who finished better in rate of moving the chains differential last season, and their schedule won’t be as easy as it was last season, when the AFC North got the sub-.500 NFC South. I think they’re more competing with Cincinnati for the 2nd spot in a tough division. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Steelers after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 9-7 3rd in AFC North

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Baltimore Ravens 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Ravens went from one of the worst offensive teams in the league in 2013 to one of the better offensive teams in the league in 2014. In 2013, they ranked 30^th in rate of moving the chains. In 2014, they moved all the way up to 7^th, the biggest offensive leap in the NFL (Miami going from 26^th to 8^th was the 2^nd biggest). As a result, the Ravens went from 8-8 to 10-6 and won a road playoff game in Pittsburgh, before eventually coming up just short in a loss in New England in the next round. How did the Ravens improve that much? Well, it was a variety of factors, but, as you could guess, a big part of it was improved quarterback play.

Joe Flacco rebounded from the worst season of his career in 2013, when he completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, posting a career worst 73.1 QB rating and ranking 37^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, also a career worst. In 2014, however, he completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, posting a 91.0 QB rating (2^nd best of his career) and ranking 14^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, also 2^nd best in his career.

This season, Flacco should end up somewhere in the middle, more in lines with his career averages. For his career, he’s completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 148 touchdowns, and 90 interceptions. He’s graded as Pro Football Focus’ 20^th, 8^th, 14^th, 29^th, 20^th, 37^th, and 14^th ranked quarterbacks in 2008-2014 respectively, since the Ravens drafted him in the first round in 2008. He’s also never missed a start in 112 career games.

Part of his strong season last year was offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, who has since taken the Denver Broncos head coach job, but he was replaced with Marc Trestman, who is a solid offensive coordinator in his own right. Flacco won the Super Bowl in 2012, playing outstanding football in that post-season, but that is an outlier and a fluke when you look at the rest of his career. In terms of recent Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, Flacco is a lot closer to Eli Manning than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

However, he’s still one of the top-15 or so quarterbacks in the NFL. The Ravens had to break the bank to keep him as a free agent after the Super Bowl winning year, re-signing him for 120.6 million over 6 years. It’s a lot of money, but the Ravens didn’t really have much of a choice. As a result of that extension, the Ravens have been cap strapped for the past two off-seasons and will remain cap strapped in the future. Fortunately, the Ravens have one of the best general managers in the NFL in Ozzie Newsome, who has made a number of smart, cheap signings over the past 2 off-seasons to ensure that Flacco had both the offensive supporting cast and the defense to continue being in contention and that Flacco wouldn’t have to do it all by himself.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Arguably the smartest, cheap signing that Ozzie Newsome has made over the past 2 off-seasons was when he signed Justin Forsett for a minimum deal off the scrap heap last off-season. The Ravens didn’t just have improved quarterback play last season, as compared to 2013. They were also vastly better on the ground. The Ravens’ running back situation looked to be about as bad as it gets heading into last season. The previous season, the Ravens averaged a league worst 3.14 yards per carry on the ground, thanks to a combination of poor offensive line play and vastly subpar seasons from both lead back Ray Rice and backup Bernard Pierce.

To make matters worse, Ray Rice, easily their most proven running back, was suspended for the first two games of the season for domestic violence, hurting his chances of a bounce back year. Then, after the NFL decided they didn’t like the public backlash saw the elevator tape of Ray Rice for the first time ever, Rice was promptly suspended indefinitely and released by the Ravens. As it turns out, the Rice suspension was a blessing in disguise for the Ravens, at least on the football field.

Forsett took advantage of the situation and was one of the best running backs in the NFL last season, rushing for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC) and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. The Ravens went from dead last in the NFL in yards per carry in 2013 to 7^th in 2014, averaging 4.51 yards per carry. That made life much easier for Flacco and was a huge part of the reason why the Ravens’ offense was so improved last year.

Forsett’s 5.08 career YPC average suggests that he’s capable of having a similarly strong year in 2015, but he’s already going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. Going into 2014, he was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. He’ll also feel the absence of Gary Kubiak, who has a way of getting 1000+ yard seasons out of afterthought running backs. The fact that Forsett couldn’t get anything better than the 3-year, 9 million dollar deal the Ravens re-signed him to this off-season is telling, but I definitely wouldn’t rule out another strong season from him. If he does have another strong year, it’ll be yet another smart off-season signing by Ozzie Newsome as 9 million over 3 years for an above average starting running back, even in today’s NFL, is a steal.

If Forsett declines and the Ravens reduce his carries, it’ll be at the benefit of either Justin Taliaferro and/or Javorius Allen. Taliaferro, a 4^th round rookie last year, looks like the favorite right now to be Forsett’s backup and the Ravens primary big back at 6-0 226, but he had an underwhelming rookie year, rushing for 292 yards and 4 touchdowns on 68 carries (4.29 YPC) and wasn’t a highly regarded prospect coming out of Coastal Carolina. Allen, who the Ravens drafted in the 4^th round this year, has good size as well at 6-0 221, great hands, and could easily beat out Taliaferro for the #2 job.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Ravens’ offensive line was also significantly better in 2014 than in 2013, a big part of the reason why the Ravens’ passing game and running game was so much better and why their offense was so much better in general. The Ravens had 3 starters in 2013 that were among the worst in the league at their respective positions, Gino Gradkowski at center, AQ Shipley at left guard, and Michael Oher at right tackle, and the Ravens essentially replaced all 3 of those players with significantly better players in 2015.

The biggest upgrade was at right tackle, where 2^nd year pro Ricky Wagner broke out in his first season as a starter. After 131 nondescript snaps as a 5^th round rookie in 2013, Wagner graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked offensive tackle in 2014. On top of that, he was the 3^rd highest ranked right tackle. He’s a one year wonder and he wasn’t highly drafted, but he could definitely have another strong season. He seems like a young building block for the Ravens and yet another draft day steal by Ozzie Newsome.

At center, the Ravens got a boost from a veteran presence last season, bringing in Jeremy Zuttah via trade from Tampa Bay to replace Gino Gradkowski. Zuttah was solid, as he usually is, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked center and making all 16 starts. That’s pretty par for the course for him. A versatile interior offensive lineman who has experience at center (47 career starts), left guard (40 career starts), and right guard (5 career starts), Zuttah has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, but has never really been too much better than average. Only going into his age 29 season, I expect more of the same from him this season.

At left guard, the Ravens’ “new” starter in 2014 wasn’t really a new starter, but they did get Kelechi Osemele back from back surgery after he missed most of 2013 with injury and he was a massive upgrade on AQ Shipley and a massive boost for this offensive line. Osemele, a 2012 2^nd round pick, made 16 starts at right tackle as a rookie, grading out about average, but really flourished once moved to left guard during the Ravens’ Super Bowl run. The Ravens left him at left guard for 2013, a smart move, but back problems kept him from meeting his potential. He struggled through 443 snaps in 7 games before getting surgery and being put on IR.

Osemele returned in 2014 though and had the breakout year many were expecting from him in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6^th ranked guard. He’s still a one year wonder in terms of being a top level offensive lineman, but, like Wagner, I would not at all be shocked if he continued that high level of play into 2015 and beyond. Like Wagner, he’s a young building block and someone they really want to be a part of their future. They’re reportedly currently working on a long-term extension with him, ahead of his contract year.

The Ravens’ other guard, Marshal Yanda, is also going into a contract year, which is why the Ravens used a 5^th round pick on Robert Myers in this past draft. The fact that the Ravens are trying to keep the younger Osemele over Yanda (ideally they’d be able to keep both) is telling because Yanda, while older, has been one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL over the past few years. Last year, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard, after uncharacteristically grading out 15^th in 2013, and that arguably made a bigger difference on the offensive line than any of their offensive line upgrades. Prior to 2013, he graded out in the top-5 at his position in three straight seasons, 2011 and 2012 at right guard and 2010 at right tackle. Even going into his age 31 season, he’s one of the most dominant players in the NFL.

The only starter on the offensive line that struggled for the Ravens last season, weirdly enough, was left tackle Eugene Monroe, who was one of their only good offensive linemen in 2013. He graded out 63^rd out of 84 eligible offensive tackles last year, but he has a good chance of bouncing back. A former first round pick in 2009, Monroe struggled early in his career, but graded out 6^thin 2011, 19^th in 2012, and 16^th in 2013 among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Overall, it’s one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and one that will continue to really help out their passing game and running game.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another one of Ozzie Newsome’s recent smart pickups was wide receiver Steve Smith, signed to a 3-year, 10.5 million last off-season. His addition was another big part of why this offense improved last season, as he was an upgrade over Marlon Brown, a 2013 undrafted free agent who played 821 snaps as a rookie and graded out 82^nd out of 111 eligible wide receivers. The Smith signing seemed like a weird deal at the time because of Smith was just cut by the Panthers, despite having guaranteed money on his contract for 2014, because he was at an advanced age in football years and coming off of the 3^rd worst season of his career in yards per game.

Smith proved the doubters wrong though, catching 79 passes for 1065 yards and 6 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked wide receiver. That’s the good news. The bad news is he’s unlikely to be able to repeat that kind of year in 2015, his age 36 season. While Smith started out last season well, catching 41 passes for 675 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 8 games, he caught just 38 passes for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns in his final 8 games. Over the first 8 games of the season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 19^th ranked wide receiver, but he ranked 72^nd out of 105 eligible during the final 8 games. Down the stretch, he resembled the receiver who got cut by Carolina the season before, bad news for his 2015, considering his age.

Smith has had a fantastic career and could be eventually bound for the Hall of Fame, with 13,262 receiving yards currently, 14^th all-time. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. It’s very likely last season was Smith’s last 1000+ yard season and he could see his abilities fall off a cliff significantly this season.

That’s especially bad news for the Ravens because they lost Torrey Smith to free agency this off-season, as the cap strapped Ravens were simply unable to match the 5-year, 40 million dollar deal the 49ers gave him. Smith was overpaid by San Francisco, but he was still a solid contributor for them in the passing game, grading out slightly above average last season and catching 49 passes for 767 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’ll be replaced by rookie 1^st round pick Breshad Perriman, who has plenty of upside, but who also is very raw and has issues with drops. He’ll be counted on for a big role as a rookie and could end up leading this receiving corps in targets if Smith struggles. He might not be ready for that kind of a role.

The Ravens’ depth at wide receiver isn’t good either. Marlon Brown is currently penciled in as the 3^rd receiver, but he struggled as a rookie, as I mentioned, and then played just 379 snaps last season, grading out below average again. Michael Campanero, a 2014 7^th round pick who flashed on 66 snaps as a rookie, is his primary competition. Kamar Aiken is also likely going to be in the mix. The 2011 undrafted free agent played 16 career snaps from 2011-2013 and then graded out below average on 279 last season.

Without much depth at wide receiver, the Ravens are probably going to use a lot of two tight end sets. The Ravens are banking on Dennis Pitta being healthy, but he’s missed 24 of 32 games over the past two seasons due to two separate hip dislocations. He caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked tight end in terms of pass catching grade in 2012, but he’s a major injury question going forward into his age 30 season. He’s currently unsure, but optimistic about his status for 2015, but the Ravens are reportedly expecting him to spend the first 6 weeks of the season on the Physical Unable to Perform list and are considering anything they get from him this year a bonus. If he didn’t have guaranteed money on his contract for 2015, he would have been an off-season cap casualty. Pitta is a poor blocker anyway, so he’ll be used in only a pass catching capacity even if healthy.

Owen Daniels was their starting tight end last season and did a decent job, but he left as a free agent. With Daniels gone and Pitta hurt, the Ravens are expecting a pair of young tight ends to be their top-2 tight ends this season and see a lot of action. Crockett Gilmore, a 2014 3^rd round pick, flashed on 378 snaps as a rookie, grading out above average. He’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a strong blocker in-line with some pass catching abilities.

Maxx Williams, meanwhile, will be the “move” tight end and will handle most of the pass catching duties from the tight end position. He’s only a 2^nd round rookie, but was widely considered the top tight end in the draft class and a steal at the end of the 2^nd round. Overall though, it’s a bad mix of really young and really old in the receiving corps for the Ravens. With Gary Kubiak gone, Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett likely regressing in terms of their production, and a thin receiving corps, the Ravens’ offense probably won’t be as good in 2015 as it was in 2014, but they should still be a lot better than they were in 2013.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

It wasn’t just the Ravens’ offense that was good in 2014. They also ranked 8^th in rate of moving the chains differential allowed, which is why they ranked 3^rd in rate of moving the chains differential, better than their record. That showed in the playoffs, as they went into Pittsburgh and won and almost beat New England in Foxboro. However, as is the case on offense, the Ravens suffered losses defensively this off-season, as result of their cap situation.

The biggest defensive loss, at least in terms of size, was defensive lineman Haloti Ngata, who the Ravens traded to the Lions for a 4^th and 5^th round pick, in order to free up 8.5 million in cap space. Considering his cap number and his contract situation (going into an age 31 contract year), it was a good return for the Ravens, but he’ll definitely be missed. A versatile player who could play anywhere on the Ravens’ 3-man defensive line, Ngata graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007.

The Ravens will be counting on a pair of talented youngsters to play bigger roles this season to make up for the loss of Ngata and move this perennially dominant Ravens’ defense into the next generation. Those two players are Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan. Williams actually played more snaps than Ngata last season (569 vs. 546). The big nose tackle probably won’t be able to play much more than 600 snaps maximum and he isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10^th ranked defensive tackle last season, including 4^th as a run stopper. The 2013 3^rd round pick also flashed on 93 snaps as a rookie and has some young Haloti Ngata like abilities at 6-1 335, though he’s not quite as versatile.

Jernigan, meanwhile, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season, as a 2^nd round rookie. That’s especially impressive because he did that on only 312 snaps, with no one grading out better than him and playing fewer snaps. The 6-2 300 pounder has the most to gain from Ngata leaving in terms of extra snaps because he and Ngata play similar positions. In his 2^nd year in the league in 2015, Jernigan could easily have a breakout year on 600 or so snaps and end the season as one of the top few 3-4 defensive ends. That’s obviously not a guarantee though, as he’s still unproven, especially at a higher snap volume.

Chris Canty remains as the 3^rd starter, but he was actually cut this off-season by the Ravens, before returning on a cheaper deal (4.65 million over 2 years). He’s not completely washed up and drew some interest on the open market, but there’s still a reason why they originally cut him. Canty is going into his age 33 season and played just 360 snaps last season because he missed 5 games with injury. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s missed 13 games. He graded out above average as recently as 2013, but he graded out below average last season and his days of being even an average starter are probably gone. He’ll primarily play in base packages this season, as he really struggled as a pass rusher last year.

He’ll be pushed for snaps immediately by 3^rd round rookie Carl Davis, a 6-5 320 pounder who will play a significant rotational role either way. DeAngelo Tyson also remains as a reserve. The 2012 7^th round pick has played a combined 722 snaps in 3 seasons with the Ravens in that role, but he’s graded out below average in all 3 seasons. Brent Urban, a 2014 4^th round pick who missed his entire rookie year with injury, could push Tyson for that reserve role.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Haloti Ngata wasn’t their only defensive loss this off-season, as they also lost Pernell McPhee, who signed a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Bears this off-season. McPhee was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season, despite being a part-time player, playing 540 snaps. On 331 pass rush snaps, he had 8 sacks, 21 hits (2^nd in the NFL behind JJ Watt), and 35 hurries. He could flourish as an every down player in Chicago this season and he’ll definitely be missed in Baltimore.

However, the Ravens still have a ton of depth at the position. McPhee, as efficient as he was on a per snap basis, was still 4^th on the team in snaps played among players who play at outside linebackers in base packages. The depth and versatility he provided, especially on passing downs, will definitely be missed, as he could rush the passer at a high level from the outside linebacker, defensive end, and defensive tackle positions at 6-3 278, but the Ravens still have a lot at the position.

Courtney Upshaw will be the starter in base packages on one side. The 2012 2^nd round pick has been in that role for 3 straight years. He’s not much of a pass rusher, grading out below average in that aspect in all 3 years, but he’s graded out above average as a run stopper in 2 of the 3 years and made strides in coverage last season, grading out above average in that aspect. He essentially plays the old Jarret Johnson role in Baltimore’s defense and has the same responsibilities as a two-down 4-3 outside linebacker, so his inability to rush the passer is minimized.

Elvis Dumervil handles all of the pass rush duties when Upshaw comes off the field and he’s fantastic in that role. Dumervil spent the early part of his career in Denver, but he wasn’t really used properly there, as he was an every down player. Dumervil had some great years rushing the passer, grading out 4^th in pass rush grade among 4-3 defensive ends in 2007 and 4^th in pass rush grade among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2009. However, he graded out below average against the run in every season in Denver, which caused him to grade out below average overall in 2008, 2011, and 2012 (he missed all of 2010 with injury) and led to the Broncos making him a cap casualty after the 2012 season.

In Baltimore, he’s only been a part-time player, playing primarily in obvious passing situations, which has maximized his talents. While the 5-11 250 pounder is really weak against the run, he’s a force off the edge in obvious passing situations. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 (1^st in pass rush grade) and 6^th in 2014 (2^nd in pass rush grade). He’s getting up there, going into his age 31 season, but he should have enough strong year.

Terrell Suggs will continue to play every down on the other side, but he too is getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season. However, Suggs is also coming off of a dominant year and has a good chance to have another strong year. Suggs was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, which is pretty par for the course for him. He ranked 9^th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013, 3^rd among 4-3 defensive ends in 2011, and 8^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2010, with an injury plagued 2012 season in between. Behind Suggs, Dumervil, and Courtney Upshaw is 4^th round rookie Za’Darius Smith, who will see limited snaps. The position is weakened with Dumervil and Suggs aging and McPhee gone, but they still have plenty of talent off the edge.

The Ravens also have a pair of talented linebackers inside as well. Daryl Smith is another one of the cheap, smart free agent signings that Ozzie Newsome has made over the past few off-seasons. Smith came cheap two off-seasons ago because he was limited to 2 games by injury in 2012 and because he was going into his 30s. However, Smith was a dominant player before the injury, grading out 1^st, 8^th, and 2^nd among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Smith has basically picked up where he left off before the injury since joining the Ravens and moving inside in their 3-4. Ray Lewis’ replacement, Smith looked like a steal on a cheap one-year deal in 2013, grading out 14^th among middle linebackers and earning a 4-year, 16.1 million deal last off-season.

Smith continued to be a value for the Ravens in 2014, grading out 7^th at his position in 2014. Like Suggs, he’s going into his age 33 season so it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep this up, but he should have another solid year in him. Conversely, fellow starting inside linebacker CJ Mosley is coming off of only his rookie year, but he too is coming off of a strong year. Mosley graded out 10^th at his position as a rookie and the 2014 1^st round pick has a bright future and looks like a big part of the next generation of this perennially dominant defense. He rounds out what is still one of the better front 7s in the NFL.

Grade: A

Secondary

Last year, the Ravens had arguably the best front 7 in football, which carried their defense to a strong season, despite major issues in the secondary. Their front 7 isn’t quite as good this season thanks to the loss of McPhee, Ngata, and a couple guys getting older, though they have some young studs who can continue improving, so they will need the secondary to be better this season. That’s at the very least a strong possibility.

Things were so bad at cornerback for the Ravens last season that Rashaan Melvin, a 2013 undrafted free agent who was signed mid-season and made his NFL debut week 15, drew the start for them in the playoffs. They failed to replace Corey Graham, a valuable 3^rd cornerback, who signed with the Bills in free agency, going into the season with Asa Jackson, a 2012 5^th round pick who had never played a snap in the NFL going into 2014, as their 3^rd cornerback. He predictably struggled, grading out 99^th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks on 335 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out worse at the position, in 7 games in an injury plagued season.

When Jimmy Smith went down with injury, that’s when things really got bad at cornerback for the Ravens, with the likes of Rashaan Melvin, Dominique Franks, Anthony Levine, Danny Gorrer, Matt Elam, and Chykie Brown all having to play roles down the stretch for this team at cornerback. Smith graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked cornerback despite missing the final 8 games of the season on injured reserve with a foot injury. Through the first 7 games of the season before getting hurt, he was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback, including 4th in pure coverage grade, allowing 51.3% completion and 4.18 yards per attempt on 39 attempts.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can be that dominant of a cornerback for a whole season, but the Ravens clearly believe he can, giving him a 4-year, 41 million dollar extension this off-season. It’s a risky deal that doesn’t appear to have much upside. It makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the NFL and he is unlikely to exceed that contract value, even if he does continue playing well. The bad news is that his play during that stretch is inconsistent with his past history, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd worst ranked cornerback in 2012 and their 35^th ranked cornerback in 2013. The good news is that he’s a former 1^st round pick (2011), who has improved in every season as a starter and could easily have a strong, full season in his age 27 season in 2015. Either way, there’s no question his return will improve this secondary, as long as he doesn’t get hurt again (he’s missed 17 games in 4 seasons in the league).

The Ravens also added depth at cornerback this off-season, signing Kyle Arrington to a 3-year, 7.5 million dollar deal. The Patriots cut Kyle Arrington, voiding the 6.5 million in non-guaranteed money over 2 years remaining on his contract. It was a weird move, as Arrington was a valuable slot cornerback for them, grading out above average in 4 straight seasons, including 21st in 2013, and the Patriots had already lost their starting cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner this off-season. Perhaps they thought they could re-sign him a little cheaper, but the Ravens didn’t let that happen. The Patriots’ loss is the Ravens’ gain as Kyle Arrington filled arguably their biggest remaining need and at a reasonable price. With little cap space to work with, the Ravens were right to focus their energy on the cornerback position this off-season.

The Ravens had an option to release cornerback Lardarius Webb to save cap space. Cutting him would have only saved them 2 million in cap space immediately because of the way his contract was structured, but he would have been off their cap completely for 2016. The other option would have been to designate him as a post-June 1^st cut, freeing up more cap space this season, allowing them a little bit more freedom in free agency, knowing that they’d have cap space opening up on June 1^st that they could use to sign their rookie class, but he still would have been on their cap for 2016.

The Ravens ultimately decided to keep him, after he agreed to a 2.5 million dollar pay cut, which might have been their best option. They save 2.5 million in cap space immediately this season. He’s still on their cap for 2016, even if they cut him next off-season, but they also have him on the roster for 2015 and he’s a candidate for a bounce back year. Webb was given a 6-year, 52.742 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2011. However, Webb tore his ACL in 2012, seemed to bounce back in 2013, grading out 19th, but regressed mightily in 2014, grading out 78th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks, thanks largely to a bad back. Last year was the first season that the 2009 3^rd round pick had graded out below average in his career, so it could be seen as a fluke, but he’s also going into his age 30 season with a significant injury history so a bounce back is hardly a guarantee.

At safety, the Ravens lost Darian Stewart as a free agent this off-season, after he made 14 starts and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked safety last season. However, they replaced him with a comparable player at a reasonable price, signing Kendrick Lewis to a 3-year, 5.4 million dollar deal. Lewis was a mere 5^th round pick in 2010 by the Chiefs, but he’s made 67 starts in 5 seasons in the league, grading out above average 3 times. Last season, he made all 16 starts for the Texans and was Pro Football Focus’ 39^th ranked safety.

At the other spot, it’ll likely be Will Hill, who was signed by the Ravens last off-season, which, like the Lewis signing, was another, smart, cheap signing by the Ravens. Hill has a very interesting career story. A 5-star recruit who was a top-10 recruit according to Rivals, Scout, and ESPN, Hill went undrafted out of Florida in 2012 because of a variety of off-the-field problems, including substance abuse issues. Hill was snatched up by the Giants as an undrafted free agent, but the Giants grew tired of him after 2 seasons and 3 substance abuse related suspensions and cut him last off-season.

The Ravens snatched him up and, after his suspension, he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked safety on just 584 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. He started the final 8 games of the regular season, helping to stabilize their back end despite major issues at cornerback, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked safety from week 9 on. Whenever he’s been on the field in his career, he’s been fantastic. In 2013, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked safety on 787 snaps and was #1 at his position from week 5 on, after serving a four game suspension. He also graded out above average on 218 snaps as a reserve as a rookie in 2012.

The issue has just been staying on the field. He says he’s cleaned up his act and looks poised for a suspension free season and could breakout as one of the best safeties in the game, though, given his history, that’s obviously no guarantee. If he can stay out of trouble, between him, Kyle Arrington coming in as a free agent, and Jimmy Smith returning from injury, the Ravens should have a significantly improved secondary in 2015.

The Ravens also have Matt Elam, a 2013 1^st round pick, at safety. He’s technically a candidate to start, but, like much of the first round of that terrible draft class, he’s been a bust thus far in his career and would not be able to win a fair competition against either Lewis or Hill. Elam made 16 starts as a rookie in 2013, but graded out 58^th among 86 eligible safeties. He actually made the first 8 starts of the season in 2014 before rightfully losing his starting job to Hill and moving to cornerback for the remainder of the season.

At safety, Elam graded out 78^th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2014 despite playing just 439 snaps. No one graded out worse at the position and played fewer snaps and he was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd worst ranked safety through the first 8 weeks of the season. Right now, he only provides value because of his versatility to step in at either safety or slot cornerback in case of an injury. Between Elam and their 2^nd round pick in 2013 Arthur Brown, who is stuck behind both Daryl Smith and CJ Mosley at middle linebacker, the Ravens don’t figure to get much of anything from their top-2 picks in 2013 this season. However, that was a terrible draft for a lot of teams, especially early, and getting Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner in the 3^rd and 5^th rounds of that draft respectively makes up for their early round mistakes.

Grade: B

Overall

The Ravens lost a lot this off-season (Torrey Smith, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee to name a few), as a result of their cap situation. However, they’ve also drafted well recently, adding Ricky Wagner, Kelechi Osemele, CJ Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams through the draft from 2012-2014. Between those 5 and Will Hill, who is still on a rookie deal, the Ravens have 6 impact players still on rookie deals. Add in a rookie class of Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, and Carl Davis in the first 3 rounds this year, widely regarded as a strong haul, and they have enough cheap, young talent to make up for some of the bigger contracts they have on their cap. They might not be quite as good as they were last season, but they were also better than their record last season. This is still a very talented team that will be in contention again this year. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Ravens after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 11-5 1st in AFC North

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Oakland Raiders 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Since losing the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have been the worst team in the NFL, record wise. Over the past 12 seasons, the Raiders are 56-136 with no winning seasons and just two seasons of more than 5 wins. It’s easy to point to the quarterback position as the reason why. They’ve certainly had other problems, but it’s very hard to win games when your quarterbacks play as badly as the Raiders’ have over the past dozen years. They’ve completed just 56.3% of their passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 191 touchdowns, and 203 interceptions over that time period. Their best quarterbacked season in terms of quarterback rating over that time period (among quarterbacks who threw at least 100 passes in a season), was by Carson Palmer, who completed 61.1% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 2012.

So it’s safe to say the Raiders and their fans are the NFL equivalent of a really drunk guy in the bar at 3 am who will go home with anything, as far as the quarterback position is concerned. And he sees her, a 3.5, and he’s overjoyed. That’s Derek Carr. There are a lot of reasons to like Carr. He was their first quarterback to start all 16 games in 12 years last season, as a 2^nd round rookie. He’s young, only going into his 2^nd season in the league, an age 24 season. The organization seems to like him as he’s gone through 2 coaching changes in his short career thus far (Dennis Allen to Tony Sparano to Jack Del Rio) and there hasn’t been any doubt about him keeping his job since he first got it, even after he started last season 0-10. His 21 touchdowns last season were the 2^nd most in a season by a Raider quarterback since 2003 (behind 2012 Palmer).

However, he really didn’t play well. He graded out 38^th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks last season on Pro Football Focus and led an offense that ranked dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, both regular and schedule adjusted. His 21 touchdowns were nice, but the offense itself only scored 26 touchdowns so Carr was more of a touchdown hog than someone who was consistently quarterbacking long touchdown drives. He kept interceptions down to 12, which is nice, but his completion percentage and YPA average, which tell more about what happens on every pass, were really bad. His 58.1 completion percentage was 6^th worst among eligible quarterbacks, and his 5.46 YPA average was dead last in the NFL. No other eligible quarterback was even under 6 YPA.

Over the past 10 years, quarterbacks who average less than 6 YPA have a combined 112-323-1 record. Among quarterbacks who have averaged 5.5 YPA or fewer in a season over the past decade, Carr is the only one who managed to do that and still start all 16 games and one of 6 quarterbacks to start 10+ games. The other 5 combined to make 26 starts the following season. A quarterback struggling as much as Carr did last season and not getting any competition for his job is virtually unprecedented in the modern era of passing offenses and a testament to Oakland’s utter desperation at the quarterback position over the past 12 seasons.

Carr is still young, so he could be better in his 2nd season in the league in 2015. However, he’d have to improve significantly to get above that 6 YPA mark. That’s a difference of 324 yards over 599 pass attempts. On top of that, there’s no guarantee Carr really ever turns it around, given the history of quarterbacks drafted outside of the 1^st round of the draft. Recent successes of Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson as quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round are the exception to the rule.

Of the 29 quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd-3rd round from 2000-2011, only three of them have ever made a Pro-Bowl. After Drew Brees, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub, the next best quarterbacks in terms of career QB rating include the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Tarvaris Jackson, Josh McCown, Kevin Kolb, and Chad Henne. For every Wilson, Dalton, or Kaepernick, there are at least three Andrew Walters, David Greenes, Jimmy Clausens, and Drew Stantons. Quarterbacks are so valuable in the NFL that if you have the baseline abilities to be a starter, you almost never fall out of the 1st round. If you fall out of the first round, there’s usually a good reason for it.

If Carr continues to struggle, the Raiders don’t really have another option they could turn to even if they wanted to (which they likely won’t, even if Carr doesn’t improve). Christian Ponder was signed this off-season to be and, unlike Matt Schaub last season, who was paid well and who was at least at one point seen as a starting option for the Raiders, Ponder is a true backup. Ponder will make just 2.25 million this season and has played in just 11 games in 2 seasons since a disastrous 2012 season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 34^th ranked quarterback out of 38 eligible (the fact that the 2012 Vikings made the playoffs with Ponder at quarterback is insane and a testament to Adrian Peterson’s incredible year). The 2011 1st round pick has completed 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.30 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in his career.

Grade: D

Receiving Corps

If the Raiders’ offense improves significantly this season, it’ll be because the Raiders upgraded Carr’s supporting cast. Armed with a fair amount of cap space and the 4^th overall pick in the draft, the Raiders’ biggest signing and their top pick were both on the offensive side of the ball. Amari Cooper, one of the top wide receiver prospects of the past few years, was the selection 4^th overall, after the Raiders struck out on both Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin in free agency. Cooper instantly becomes the top receiver in a receiving corps that had just one wide receiver or tight end grade out above average on Pro Football Focus last season.

However, anyone expecting him to have a huge statistical year based on what guys like Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, and Kelvin Benjamin did last year is short sighted. Sure, it’s easier to pass the football than it’s ever been in the NFL, but last year’s rookie receiver class was arguably the best ever and historically it’s not realistic to expect a receiver to come into the NFL and put up 1000+ yards as a rookie. Only 11 rookie wideouts have done so in the last 20 years and three of those were last season.

Even in the golden era of passing offenses in the past 10 years, the average first round rookie wideout has averaged just 48 catches for 703 yards and 4 touchdowns. Transitioning from being a collegiate receiver to an NFL receiver is really tough, even for the most talented of players. Now, Cooper isn’t the average first round rookie wideout, but he’s far from a lock for 1000+ yards as a rookie or even 800+ yards, as he’ll also be limited by poor quarterback play. He’ll definitely help this offense right away, but the Raiders won’t suddenly become a significantly more effective offense just because Cooper is in town.

After Cooper on the depth chart, things are unclear and talent is limited. Michael Crabtree was signed in free agency. Given his 3 million dollar salary and his history of being a starter in San Francisco (since he entered the league in 2009), he seems like the most likely one to start opposite Cooper. The problem is he isn’t as good as he used to be, thanks to a May 2013 torn Achilles that seems to have derailed his career. There’s a reason he drew such limited interest on the open market, settling for a 1-year deal after expecting multi-year deals in the range of what Torrey Smith, who replaced him in San Francisco, ended up getting (5 years, 40 million).

Crabtree was great in 2012, finally living up to expectations as the 10^th overall pick in 2009. He caught 85 passes for 1105 yards and 9 touchdowns on 118 targets (72.0%) and 433 routes run (an average of 2.55 yards per route run) that season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver. He was even better down the stretch that season, catching 61 passes for 880 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 10 games, including playoffs. That’s 98 catches for 1408 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games.

Then came that torn Achilles. He caught just 19 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown in 5 games in 2013 (34 catches for 487 yards and a touchdown in 8 games if you count playoffs) and then was even worse on a per game basis in 2014. He played all 16 games, but caught just 68 passes for 698 yards and 4 touchdowns on 102 targets (66.7%) and 474 routes run (1.47 yards per route run). His per game yardage numbers in 2014 were the worst of his career and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. 2012 remains his only 1000+ yard season and he’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 3 of 6 seasons, including each of the last 2 seasons. There’s some bounce back potential, but he looks like a marginal starter right now, especially after largely drawing crickets in free agency, as teams generally felt his explosiveness was permanently gone.

The Raiders do have solid depth at the position as Brice Butler, Andre Holmes, and Rod Streater will compete for the #3 job. None of those players are great, but you could do a lot worse than those as your #3, #4, and #5 guys (in some order). Holmes was actually leading their leading receiver last year with 47 catches for 693 yards and 4 touchdowns and he seems like the obvious favorite for the #3 role for that reason. Holmes, a 2011 undrafted free agent, flashed in his first career action in 2013, grading out above average on 393 snaps and catching 22 passes for 366 yards and 1 touchdown in his final 5 games. However, he couldn’t translate that to a full season in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 91^st ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. Just a situational deep threat, Holmes caught 51.6% of targets in 2014.

Streater is a little bit more proven. Also a former undrafted free agent (2012), Streater caught 60 passes for 888 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2013, grading out above average, after grading out below average as a rookie. Unfortunately, he broke his foot in 2014 and was limited to just 9 catches in 3 games. If he’s healthy, he should be able to push Holmes for that #3 job. It’s also possible that the Raiders trade one of them for a late round pick, as both are heading into contract years. Brice Butler is also in the mix. The 2013 7^th round pick graded out below average as a rookie, but flashed last season and actually was the only Raider wide receiver or tight end to grade out above average last season, albeit on just 278 snaps. He’ll probably get a bigger role in 2016 and beyond with Holmes, Streater, and Crabtree all scheduled for free agency next off-season.

Things aren’t good at tight end either. Mychal Rivera, a 2013 6^th round pick, was completely overmatched as the starting tight end last season, both as a run blocker and a pass catcher, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66^th ranked tight end out of 67 eligible. He was better as a rookie, but in more limited action and he was only a 6^th round pick so it’s very possible that he’ll never develop into anything more than a depth player. He could easily be pushed for the starting job by 3^rd round rookie Clive Walford, which should say a lot about how much Rivera struggled last season.

Lee Smith will be in the mix for snaps as well, after he was brought in during free agency. The 6-6 269 pounder is a powerful run blocker, but has just 20 catches for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns in 4 seasons in the league since getting drafted in the 5^th round in 2011. The Raiders gave him a 3-year, 9.1 million dollar deal this off-season, which suggests they really value his skill set, but he’s not the type of guy who will be in the mix for a significant role or a starting job because of how limited of a player he is. It’s an improved receiving corps overall from last season, but they won’t provide Carr a ton of help.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

While the Raiders struck out on Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb this off-season, they were able to land a big-time free agent on their offensive line, signing Rodney Hudson to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal that was at the time the richest deal ever for a center in NFL history. He doesn’t quite deserve it, but he’s a very good player and the Raiders had both the cap space and the need to overpay him. He’ll replace Stefen Wisniewski, an average starting center who signed a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in Jacksonville this off-season. Wisniewski was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked center out of 41^st eligible last season as he dealt with a bad shoulder.

Hudson will be a significant upgrade on him. A 2011 2nd round pick, he flashed on 136 snaps in various positions as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, before moving to center full-time in 2012. However, Hudson played just 3 games that year before going down for the season, though he showed well when healthy. Since then, he’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, grading out 17^th among centers in 2013 and 3rd in 2014. He’s a solid player and one of the better centers in the game, though still someone I would rank behind the likes of Nick Mangold, Jason Kelce, Alex Mack, and possibly Ryan Kalil and Max Unger.

Austin Howard was the Raiders’ big off-season signing on the offensive line last off-season, as they brought him over from the Jets on a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal. Howard was a solid starter in New York in 2012 and 2013, making all 32 starts and grading out 32^nd and 47^th respectively among offensive tackles in 2013 and 2014. However, the Raiders made the asinine decision to move him inside to guard even though he’s not a natural fit for the interior at 6-7 333 and it really didn’t pay off, as he graded out 59th out of 78 eligible guards.

He’s expected to move back to right tackle this season, in an effort to get his career turned back around. Right tackle is another spot where the Raiders had a lot of issues last season. Splitting time, Khalif Barnes and Menelik Watson graded out 58^th and 71^st respectively out of 84 eligible offensive tackles last season. Howard should be an upgrade. The issue is the Raiders didn’t really find an upgrade at the right guard spot, so the veteran Barnes is currently penciled in as the starter there. Barnes has graded out below average in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, including 62^nd out of 81 eligible guards in 2013. Going into his age 33 season, Barnes is not a starting caliber player, but the Raiders don’t really have much of another option. 4^th round rookie Jon Feliciano is more of an option in 2016 and beyond.

Things are better on the left side of the line than the right. While the Raiders are hoping they struck gold in the middle rounds with Feliciano on the right side, they actually did strike gold in the middle rounds last year on the left side with Gabe Jackson, a 2014 3^rd round pick who made 12 starts and graded out above average as a rookie. A better pass protector than run blocker, Jackson is one of the few young building blocks the Raiders have right now. He’s obviously only a one year wonder, but he should continue being a solid starter in 2015 and beyond.

The Raiders also got strong play at left tackle as veteran Donald Penn had a vintage year, grading out 7^th among offensive tackles. Penn has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus, but appeared to be on the decline in 2013, which is why the Buccaneers cut him and replaced him with the younger Anthony Collins, who flopped mightily in his first and only season in Tampa Bay and got cut this off-season. The Buccaneers’ loss was the Raiders’ gain. Penn is going into his age 32 season and has a history of weight problems so I don’t expect him to play quite as well as he did last season, which was arguably the best season of his career, but he should once again be a strong blindside protector. With Penn, Jackson, and Hudson, the Raiders have a solid offensive line, but their issues on the right side can’t be ignored.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One player the Raiders are really hoping can give their offense a boost this season is running back Latavius Murray. It’s easy to see why. The Raiders averaged 3.68 yards per carry last season, 27^th in the NFL, but Murray averaged 5.17 yards per carry on his 84 carries. The 2013 6^th round pick had incredible measurables, running a 4.38 at his Pro Day (he wasn’t invited to the combine) at 6-2 223. However, upon further examination, Murray was not as good as that average suggested.

Murray’s signature moment last season was a 90 yard carry against Kansas City, but that’s just what happened on one snap. Excluding that run, Murray averaged just 4.12 yards per carry. I’m not trying to discount that impressive run, but it is an outlier. You can’t expect him to have one carry of 90+ yards every 84 carries. Murray had that carry in his first NFL start against Kansas City, but ended up leaving that game with a concussion and missing the next game, so he finished that game with 112 yards on 4 carries, which is obviously impressive.

However, when he regained his starting job upon his return, Murray struggled as an every down back. He rushed for just 258 yards on 68 carries (an average of 3.79 YPC) and added 11 catches for 108 yards, while grading out below average on the season. The Raiders also didn’t exactly see a boost in offensive performance in the final 4 games of the season. While they went 2-2 in those 4 games, their offense only moved the chains at a 61.21% rate, which is actually worse than their overall rate on the season.

There are a number of factors at play obviously and he certainly shouldn’t be blamed for their offense being slightly worse in the final 4 games, but it’s important to note. I still expect him to be better than the likes of Darren McFadden (3.45 YPC) and Maurice Jones-Drew (2.23 YPC) were last season, especially since the Raiders figure to be a better run blocking team this season, but it’s really important to temper expectations with this kid and remember that he’s a former 6^th round pick with an injury history (he missed all of 2013 with injury) who is unproven beyond one carry and struggled as the feature back down the stretch last season. Anyone expecting him to carry this offense out of the cellar isn’t looking at the bigger picture.

The Raiders didn’t do a whole lot this off-season in the way of adding competition for him. While they were loosely linked to the likes of DeMarco Murray and Adrian Peterson this off-season, they ended up settling for guys like Roy Helu and Trent Richardson. The Helu signing I liked, as I thought he was a great value at 4 million over 2 years. Roy Helu only has 255 carries in 4 seasons since the Redskins drafted him in the 4th round in 2011, but he’s averaged 4.44 yards per carry and where he really provides value is as a 3rd down back. In 48 career games, Helu has 129 catches for 1152 yards and 3 touchdowns and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back in 2 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, extremely valuable in today’s NFL. He’ll complement the young Murray well as a passing down back and I hope that, if Murray struggles as the feature back to start the season, Helu is given more early down chances.

The Trent Richardson signing I’m less excited about, but the Raiders only guaranteed him a 600K signing bonus, so it wasn’t a bad signing, as the Raiders are taking a chance on a guy who was the 3^rd overall pick in 2012. However, Richardson has been a disaster thus far in his career. He had what seemed like a promising rookie year in Cleveland in 2012, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus, catching 51 passes and scoring 11 touchdowns on a bad Browns team. He averaged just 3.56 yards per carry and 7.20 yards per catch, but he had 59 broken tackles on 318 touches and averaged 2.09 yards per carry after contact, giving him the #7 elusive rating among eligible running backs, so it was easy to blame his offensive line for his lack of efficiency.

Unfortunately, things never got better for Richardson. He was traded for a 1^st round pick to the Colts early in 2013. Many thought the Browns were selling low and getting rid of a #3 overall pick too soon, but it turns out they were selling high on a guy whose stock was about to plummet. Trent Richardson’s tenure with the Colts went about as bad as it could have. After they acquired him mid-season in 2013 for what turned out to be the 26th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Richardson rushed for 977 yards and 6 touchdowns on 316 carries (3.09 YPC) in his 2 years with the Colts.

He also has had issues with the coaching staff, which got him suspended by the team for their playoff game against New England and the first week of next season (he’ll be eligible to play week 1 for the Raiders though because it was a team suspension not a league suspension). Even though his salary was guaranteed for 2015, the Colts still cut him, as they didn’t see him as being worth their 53 man roster. Richardson has still great strength and toughness and breaks a ton of tackles (162 on 727 touches), but he has a career 3.31 YPC average as a result of his absolute lack of burst and his embarrassingly poor ability to find holes. He can break tackles and run through contact, but his playing style is way too inviting to contact behind the line of scrimmage. Between that and his issues with coaches in Indianapolis, I don’t have a lot of hope for the Trent Richardson era in Oakland. I expect the Raiders to struggle to run the football and overall move the football once again this season.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Raiders’ offense was terrible last season, their defense wasn’t bad, as they ranked 16^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their offense was so bad that it was hard to tell they had a solid defense, as their defense was 6^th in time on the field. Their offense was also the reason they went 3-13 and ranked dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a solid defense. It was really one player on defense who elevated their level of play. Of 13 Oakland defenders to play more than 400 snaps this season, only two of them graded out positively, veteran Justin Tuck, who was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked 4-3 defensive end, and Khalil Mack, the 5th overall pick in 2014 and someone I argued should have been Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Mack was technically a 4-3 outside linebacker last season, ranking #1 at his position, but he did his most important work rushing the passer off the edge of the defensive line in sub packages, playing the Von Miller role. Interestingly enough, Miller ranked #1 among 4-3 outside linebackers, one spot ahead of Von Miller, who had his 3-year reign as the top 4-3 outside linebacker snapped by the rookie Mack last season, a reign that had dated back to Miller’s rookie year in 2011. If Mack keeps this up, the hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role in a 4-3 might have to be renamed the Khalil Mack role, rather than the Von Miller role, especially with Miller switching to 3-4 outside linebacker in Denver’s new defense. Along with fellow rookie, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, Mack was the first rookie to grade out #1 at his position on either side of the ball since Miller did so in 2011.

Mack only had 4 sacks on the season, but his pass rush numbers were better than his sack totals as he also managed 10 hits and 40 hurries. That still means his pass rush productivity was significantly worse than Miller’s, as Miller had 15 sacks, 11 hits, and 47 hurries, giving him a pass rush productivity of 11.8, while Mack was at 9.1. However, Miller had the luxury of playing with a lot of leads on a Peyton Manning quarterbacked team, giving him more easy pass rush situations. Mack also was significantly better than Miller as a run stopper.

Besides, any time you’re the best player on a competent defense despite your only good teammate being Justin Tuck, you’re doing something right. Mack should once again have a strong season in his 2^nd season in the league, especially now that Jack Del Rio, Miller’s defensive coordinator in Denver from 2011-2013, is the head coach. He might not be quite as good, but it’s clear he’s one of the top few defensive players in the game. It’ll be up to the rest of the defense to improve around him.

In base situations, when Mack plays outside linebacker, veteran Justin Tuck and rookie Mario Edwards will be the starters at defensive end. Tuck and Edwards have similar frames (6-5 268 and 6-3 279 respectively), similar games (Tuck is obviously more proven), and will play similar roles this season. Both player are base 4-3 defensive ends who can rush the passer from the inside, which opens up room for Mack to rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. Tuck, as I mentioned, was the 2^nd best player on this defense last season, grading out 17^th among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s going into his age 32 season so he’s hard to trust going forward. He should have one more solid year in the tank, good news for the Raiders as he’s going into his contract year, but there are no guarantees.

Both Tuck and Edwards will some sub packages outside, but the likes of Sio Moore and Ben Mayowa will also see a fair amount of sub package edge rush snaps. Mayowa, a 2013 undrafted free agent, has played 394 snaps in 2 seasons in the NFL, 370 of which were last season in a similar role. He had 235 pass rush snaps, but struggled overall, especially struggling as a pass rusher. Moore, meanwhile, played a similar role to Khalil Mack and Von Miller as a rookie in 2013, playing outside linebacker in base packages and defensive end in sub packages. He graded out 7^th among 4-3 outside linebackers as a rookies, though he struggled as a pass rusher. In 2014, he graded out below average overall and only saw 73 pass rush snaps, but he should see more (in the 100 range) this season.

It’s a good thing that Tuck and Edwards can play defensive tackle in sub packages because the Raiders don’t have a lot of depth at that position. Antonio Smith and Pat Sims were 1^st and 3^rd among defensive tackles in snaps played last season, playing 791 and 429 respectively. Both graded out below average last season and now are gone. Justin Ellis, who played 635 snaps last season, remains. The 2014 4^th round pick graded out below average on Pro Football Focus last season, but the Raiders really like him long-term and there’s a chance he improves going forward.

Dan Williams was brought in to replace Sims. Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps. On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season.

They didn’t really bring in a replacement for Antonio Smith, so Stacy McGee will be the 3^rd defensive tackle this season. McGee struggled mightily as a 6^th round rookie in 2013, grading out 59^th out of 69 eligible defensive tackles on just 354 snaps. He played just 120 snaps in 2014, but he still struggled mightily. He’s still young, but he’s only a former 6^th round pick so there’s a good chance he never improves. He’s not someone who you want playing a significant role on your defensive line. However, the Raiders do have a strong defensive front overall, especially when Mack is rushing off the edge.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, in base packages Sio Moore and Khalil Mack will be the starters at outside linebacker. In sub packages, Mack will move to the defensive line. Moore might also play on the defensive end in sub packages, as he did as a rookie. That’s because the Raiders brought in Malcolm Smith as a free agent and he can play outside linebacker in sub packages. Malcolm Smith, the ex-Seahawk, follows his former linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr. to Oakland, where he is now the defensive coordinator.

Malcolm Smith was Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 48, one of the more anonymous Super Bowl MVP’s in NFL history. Smith played a good game, but there were more deserving candidates, as Smith didn’t even play half the snaps in that game (34 of 71). He just happened to make a few splash plays that we remember. Smith also wasn’t even a starter that season, playing just 490 snaps. He was still Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker that season, despite the limited action, with no one playing more snaps and grading out better. However, he’s still graded out above average in just 2 of 4 seasons and he’s only once played more than 286 snaps in a season. Last season, he graded out 36^th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers on just 286 snaps, with no one else playing fewer snaps and grading worse. A coverage athlete at 6-0 226, Smith will probably play outside in sub packages.

The only player who is expected to play all three downs at linebacker is Curtis Lofton, which isn’t good because he’s really struggled over the past few years. Lofton was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked middle linebacker in 2011 in the final year of his rookie deal with the Falcons, which landed him a 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal from the Saints the following off-season. However, he graded out below average in all 3 seasons with the Saints, with his worst year coming last year, as he graded out 57th out of 60 eligible.

That led to his release, a move that saved the Saints 7.25 million in cash. The Raiders massively overpaid him, giving him a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal. Curtis Lofton finished 4th in the NFL in tackles with 145 last season. Given the size of his new deal, I assume the Raiders didn’t actually watch Lofton play last season and just looked at the tackle stats. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL regardless of position and a lot of his tackles were him cleaning up broken plays after big gains on a New Orleans defense that was arguably the NFL’s worst in 2014. He should be better than Miles Burris, who graded out dead last among middle linebackers last season, but he’s a weak spot on an overall solid front 7.

Grade: B+

Secondary

While the Raiders finished 3-13 last season, they did have a strong draft last year, which is going to be helpful for the future. Even though Carr is overrated, the Raiders did find an absolute stud on defense in the first round in Khalil Mack, a starting left guard in the 3^rd round in Gabe Jackson, and a decent contributor upfront on the defensive line in Justin Ellis. On top of that, they also found a promising young cornerback named TJ Carrie in the 7^th round.

Carrie made 4 starts as a rookie, played 568 snaps, and graded out about average, which is most much than you can expect from a 7^th round rookie. It’s possible that was a flash in the pan and it’s still important to remember that we’re a year removed from the whole league letting him drop to the 7^th round, but he has promise, especially with Ken Norton Jr. coming over from Seattle, where they’ve had a ton of success with big cornerbacks. Carrie has ideal size at 6-0 204.

The Raiders tried more of a veteran approach last season, bringing in the likes of Donald Penn, Justin Tuck, James Jones, Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith last off-season. Woodley, Smith, and Jones all got cut this off-season, while Brown and Rogers left as free agents. Tuck and Penn worked out, but the cost of the other 5 veterans who didn’t work out was they weren’t able to get young talent valuable playing time last season, which hurts this rebuilding project.

The Raiders are going with more of a youth based approach this season, particularly at cornerback. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers played 1000 and 477 snaps respectively last season, grading out below average. Carrie will move into a starting role with those two gone and another young player, DJ Hayden, will be the other starter. Hayden, in contrast to Carrie, was a 1^st round pick, but he’s struggled mightily in 2 seasons in the league since being drafted in 2013. He’s graded out below average in both seasons and he’s also missed 14 games in the two seasons combined. It’s too early to write him off as a bust and he’s a talented player who could turn it around in his 3^rd year in the league, but step number 1 for him will be staying healthy, which is hardly a given. In two years in the league, he’s played just 956 snaps (10 starts) and maxed out at 10 games in a season.

The Raiders will need him to stay healthy because their depth is really suspect. Keith McGill and James Dockery will compete for the #3 job. McGill is a 2014 4^th round pick who played 147 nondescript snaps as a rookie, while James Dockery is a 2011 undrafted free agent who has played 283 snaps in 4 seasons in the league. After those two on the depth chart, it’s a mix of special teamer Taiwan Jones, 7^th round rookie Dexter McDonald, and a bunch of undrafted free agents. The Raiders are hoping that McGill can make a big 2^nd year leap this off-season, but if he doesn’t, they might need to bring in a veteran. Brown and Rogers are both still available, but there’s a reason for that as both are 30+ and coming off of mediocre seasons. Getting even replacement level performance from either of those two should be considered a win.

Things are more established at safety. The Raiders gave veteran Nate Allen a 4-year, 23 million dollar deal. It’s an overpay, but Allen has progressed from being the laughing stock he once was in Philadelphia earlier in his career. It’s certainly a risky move by the Raiders, but if Allen plays like he did last season, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety, he’ll be worth it (or like he did in 2011 when he was 18th at his position). His history can’t be ignored though.

Nate Allen has been a starter with the Eagles for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. Over that period of time, he’s played 74 of a possible 80 games, including 70 starts, but he has been up and down, grading out below average in 3 of 5 seasons and never having back-to-back above average seasons. His worst year came in 2012, when he graded out 84th out of 88 eligible safeties. That being said, his terrible 2012 is more than 2 years ago, he’s coming off a solid season, and he’s an experienced starter, so, all things considered, he should help this team this season.

The other starter is as veteran as it gets as 39-year-old Charles Woodson is entering his 18^th season out of Michigan. Woodson is a veteran Hall-of-Famer who started his career in Oakland, went to Green Bay, and now is back in Oakland as a safety, after spending most of his career at cornerback. He’s shockingly made 32 of 32 starts for the Raiders over the past 2 seasons, the only player at any position who can say that, and the fact that he is still in the league is a testament to the kind of football player he is. However, it’s really tough to count on someone his age. Last season, he graded out 68^th out of 87 eligible safeties and could see his abilities fall off a cliff this season.

If he struggles, the only one the Raiders have to turn to is Brandian Ross, who graded out 85^th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2013 and 55^th out of 87 eligible in 2014. He’s experienced, but he’s also the reason the Raiders brought in Nate Allen this off-season. It’s a weak secondary again for the Raiders overall, but the defense will be once again propped up by a solid front 7. The Raiders will need their offense to step it up though, if they’re going to climb out of the AFC West cellar.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Raiders are getting better, but there’s still not a ton of talent here. The defense should be decent again, but I don’t see the offense stepping it up significantly, even though Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, and Amari Cooper all have some hype around them. Carr struggled mightily as a rookie, Murray is unproven and wasn’t as good as his numbers suggested last year, while Cooper could take a year to breakout as a top level receiver. This team should once again be in the NFL’s cellar. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Raiders after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 3-13 4th in AFC West

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Kansas City Chiefs 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 10, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Although the Chiefs missed the playoffs last season, they finished the regular season 9^th in rate of moving the chains differential, including 14^th in rate of moving the chains by their offense. The Chiefs’ offense was able to have a solid offensive season despite infamously not getting a single receiving touchdown from a wide receiver and also having poor play on the offensive line, with just one offensive lineman playing a snap and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus.

How did the Chiefs have success with minimal receiving or offensive line talent? Well, they executed a ball control offense to perfection led by quarterback Alex Smith, feature back Jamaal Charles, and leading receiver, tight end Travis Kelce and orchestrated by head coach Andy Reid and his team of offensive assistants. Smith is the perfect quarterback for this offense and the offense is the perfect system for Smith.

Smith completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions last season, grading out 16^th among eligible quarterbacks, slightly above average. Since Jim Harbaugh turned him career around in 2011, Smith has completed 63.4% of his attempts for an average of 7.01 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. He also graded out 8^th in 2011 on Pro Football Focus, 19^th in 2012, 20^th in 2013, and then 16^th last season.

Smith is limited in his abilities and this offense would be limited even if they had a great offensive line and explosive receivers because of Smith’s below average ability to sit in the bottom and pick apart a defense downfield, but the Chiefs run the ball well and get the ball out of Smith’s hands in 2.44 seconds on average (11^th among eligible quarterbacks), limiting sack chances. The Chiefs did still allow 49 sacks, but that was largely because of the offensive line, as Smith was still pressured on 35.6% of dropbacks, 16^th among eligible quarterbacks, despite the quick release. Smith was also rarely forced to throw downfield as result of their ability to run the football, as 77.2% of Smith’s attempts were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, the highest percent in the NFL. That minimalized the Chiefs’ need for talented receivers, minimalized Smith’s lack of deep ball ability, and minimalized their offensive line’s struggles. Simply put, the Chiefs were able to get the most of their talent offensively last season, as a result of scheme.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As alluded to in the intro, the Chiefs’ strong running game was a huge part of why they were able to have offensive success last season. The Chiefs averaged 4.57 yards per carry last season on 420 carries, 5^th in the NFL, despite an offensive line that ranked 19^th on Pro Football Focus in run blocking grade. That was largely as a result of Jamaal Charles, who averaged 5.01 yards per carry and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked running back in rushing grade.

Charles did that despite dealing with a variety of nagging injuries. Those injuries only caused him to miss 1 game, but that not only limited his effectiveness running the football, but also limited him to just 206 carries, fewest in a non-injury shortened season since 2009. Backup running back Knile Davis, a 2013 3^rd round pick, saw 134 carries and averaged just 3.46 yards per carry, grading out worst at his position on Pro Football Focus. Charles being healthier and being back in that 250+ carry range for the Chiefs will be very helpful this season.

Charles’ career 5.49 yard per carry average is best all time by a running back and he also has 262 catches in 95 career games as well. Excluding an injury shortened 2011 season, Charles has graded out 4^th, 1^st, 16^th, 2^nd, and 13^th on Pro Football Focus among running backs in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. Charles is going into his age 29 season with 1511 career touches, but should have at least one more dominant season left in him, which is obviously great news for Chiefs fans.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

I mentioned earlier that just one Chief offensive lineman graded out above average last season. That was center Rodney Hudson, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked center last season and then promptly signed a then record 5-year, 45 million dollar deal with the division rival Raiders. To replace him, the Chiefs drafted Mitch Morse in the 2^nd round. A collegiate tackle, Morse was a good run blocker, but had issues in pass protection, especially against tougher SEC competition. The Chiefs think they can convert him into a center and maximize his abilities there. It could work out, but any time you’re drafting a collegiate tackle who can’t play professional tackle in the 2^nd round based on the fact that he might be able to play center, it’s a weird pick. At the very least, he looks like a clear downgrade from Hudson.

The Chiefs did add a veteran offensive lineman this off-season to help offset some of the loss of Hudson, trading from Ben Grubbs, previously of the Saints. While Grubbs did grade below average last season and while he is going into his age 31 season, he graded out as a top-16 guard from 2009-2013, so there is some bounce back potential. He’ll slot in at left guard and be an immediate upgrade over the departed Mike McGlynn, who was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard last season in 13 starts at left guard.

Right guard Zach Fulton wasn’t much better, grading out 64^th out of 78 eligible guards in 16 starts at right guard last season. He’s still on the roster, unlike McGlynn, but he’s unlikely to be starting again in 2015. A 2014 6^th round pick forced into action as a rookie, Fulton profiles as a long-term backup at best, as is the case with most 6^th round picks. Jeff Allen is returning from an elbow injury that ended his season 40 snaps into week 1 last year, while Paul Fanaika comes over as a veteran starter from Arizona.

Fanaika looks like the favorite to be the starting right guard, but he’s unlikely to be much of an upgrade from Fulton. Fanaika is a big, physical guard at 6-5 327, but he’s really struggled as a starter over the last 2 seasons in Arizona. After the 2009 7th round pick played no snaps in the first 4 seasons of his career, Fanaika started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, but he wasn’t good, grading out 76th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 71st out of 78 eligible guards in 2014.

Allen wouldn’t be much of an upgrade on Fulton either. A 2012 2^nd round pick, Allen was Pro Football Focus’ 79^th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2012 and 60^th out of 81 eligible in 2013, before missing most of last season with injury. Given that the Chiefs gave Fanaika starting money (3 years, 8.1 million), Allen’s best shot at the starting lineup is at right tackle, where he started week 1 of last season and where he’d compete with Donald Stephenson for the starting job. Whoever starts at right tackle, Allen or Stephenson, it figures to be a position of weakness. Stephenson, a 2012 3^rd round pick, graded out 54^th out of 80 eligible offensive tackles on 377 snaps in 2012, 61^st out of 76 eligible on 543 snaps in 2013, and then played just 31 snaps last season as a backup.

The only player who figures to play in the same spot this season as last season is left tackle Eric Fisher. After a 2-14 2012 season, the Chiefs used the #1 overall pick on offensive tackle Eric Fisher. They’ve since had winning seasons in each of the last 2 seasons, but that had way more to do with stabilized quarterback play and stabilized coaching. Fisher himself has actually really struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 70^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013 at right tackle and then 72^nd out of 84 eligible in 2014 at left tackle. It’s too early to call him a bust, but he’s entering a make or break 3^rd season, as the Chiefs would likely look to add another left tackle of the future and move Fisher elsewhere if he struggled on the blindside again. One of the worst offensive lines in football last season has gotten even worse this off-season.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

I mentioned three players as being the keys to the Chiefs’ offense last season: Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and tight end Travis Kelce. While Chief wide receivers struggled, Kelce led the team in receiving, with 67 catches for 862 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s even more impressive when you consider that he played most of last season on a snap count as he was returning from a brutal knee injury that required micro-fracture surgery. Kelce caught 67 of his 81 targets (82.7%) and his 2.13 yards per route run was 2^nd in the NFL among tight ends behind Rob Gronkowski.

Also a strong blocker (1^st among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in that aspect), Kelce was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked tight end overall last season. That was despite playing just 688 snaps, barely more than teammate Anthony Fasano (678 snaps), who graded out 61^st out of 67 eligible tight ends, but kept seeing the field because of Kelce’s knee. Fasano is gone now, leaving just Demetrius Harris behind Kelce on the depth chart. Harris, a 2013 undrafted free agent, has played 70 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, leaving Kelce to be an every down tight end. He could easily top 1000 receiving yards, while providing strong run blocking to help out a poor offensive line. If he can stay healthy, he’ll draw some Gronk-lite comparisons.

The situation at wide receiver isn’t as good. Everyone knows by now that no Chiefs wide receiver caught a touchdown last season, but it wasn’t just that they were being kept out of the end zone. Chief wide receivers combined for just 129 catches for 1588 yards. For comparison, Antonio Brown had 129 catches for 1698 yards by himself and also scored 13 times. Part of their wide receiver issues have to do with Alex Smith’s playing style and his hesitance to throw downfield outside the numbers, but there’s no denying this wide receiver group had a lot of issues last season. Dwayne Bowe had nearly half of their production from the wideout spot in 2014 (60/754/0). He didn’t grade out above average in pass catching grade on Pro Football Focus (only one Chief receiver did), but he was the only Chief receiver to play more than 260 snaps (25.2%).

The Chiefs cut him to save 11 million and put that money to better use, signing Jeremy Maclin to a 5-year, 55 million dollar deal. That’s not to say that they didn’t overpay Maclin, but he’s definitely a better football player than Bowe is at this point in his career. Maclin had a great 2014 season, as he had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver.

However, he’s a one-year wonder. From 2009-2013, he missed 21 games with injury, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. 2014 was also the first season in his career in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He was terrible in 2012, grading out 101st out of 105 eligible. The fact that the Eagles, who had issues at wide receiver at well, were only willing to offer 9 million annually to Maclin is concerning, as is the fact that Maclin never did well before being in Chip Kelly’s scheme last season and now he returns to Andy Reid’s scheme, which he didn’t do that well in from 2009-2012 to start his career.

Couple that with his injury history and his overall past struggles and that wasn’t a very good deal, but he will help their team. His numbers should see a huge hit in the Chiefs’ ball control offense, but he’ll give the Chiefs’ offense more versatility in play calling and style of play. The Chiefs should have more plays of 20+ yards next season as a result, after just 49 last season, among the fewest in the NFL. They had just 41 pass plays of 20+ yards, 30th in the NFL. That type of thing can be tough to predict year to year anyway.

The rest of the Chiefs’ receiving corps is up in the air, much like it was last season behind Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs used a 3^rd round pick on Chris Conley, but that was their only off-season addition at wide receiver other than Maclin. Conley was a weird pick anyway as his skill set doesn’t suit this offense and he was a workout warrior who got overdrafted because of his measurables. DeAnthony Thomas was their only wide receiver to grade out above average last season, as he caught 14 passes on 21 targets (66.7%) for 113 yards on 70 routes run (1.61 yards per route run) and 156 rushing yards on 23 carries. The 5-9 174 2014 4^th round pick is only a slot receiver/scat back whose best case scenario is Dexter McCluster, but he could easily carve out a meaningful role in the slot this season.

Albert Wilson is someone the team likes and he could carve out a role both in the slot and outside. However, he too is very unproven as the 2014 undrafted free agent played just 223 snaps as a rookie, grading out slightly below average. Kelce and Maclin give Alex Smith two solid targets, but after those two it’s uncertainty and inexperience on the depth chart. The likes of Demetrius Harris, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas, and Charles Conley could all see significant roles on this Chiefs’ offense this season. It’ll once again be a Chiefs offense that is good at what they do and nothing else. They should once again be middle of the pack in rate of moving the chains.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

Once again, it’ll be the Chiefs defense that will win them games more so than their offense. The Chiefs had 2^nd fewest adjusted games lost on defense in 2013, part of the reason why many, including myself, expected them to decline defensively in 2014. Injuries struck quickly as Achilles tears knocked out both Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson for the season in week 1 and the Chiefs finished 27^th in adjusted games lost on the season. However, the Chiefs’ defense was able to compensate and still finish 7^th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

DeVito will be back this season in his typical role as a two-down base defensive end in the Chiefs’ 3-4. He might be just a base player, but he’s as good as any pure base player in the NFL, if not better. From 2010-2013, Mike DeVito was one of just two 3-4 defensive ends to grade out in the top-10 at that position on Pro Football Focus in every season and he did it despite playing about half the snaps in all 4 of those seasons. He doesn’t get much pass rush, but he graded out 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 4th in run stopping grade in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. He’s going into age 31 season off of a torn Achilles so he might not be as good, but his return will help this defense. He’s an upgrade over Jaye Howard, who graded out about average on 449 snaps in a similar role last season. Howard will be a pure rotational reserve this season.

Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey will be the every down defensive linemen again. Poe is widely regarded as one of the best defensive linemen in football, ever since the Chiefs drafted the big nose tackle 11^th overall out of Marshall in 2012. However, his play has been inconsistent. While his ability to play every down and consistently lead the defensive line in snaps played (757 in 2012, 1004 in 2013, and 966 in 2014, all most by a Chief defensive lineman) is very impressive, he hasn’t always been great. His 2013 season when he graded out 11^th among defensive tackles was obviously good, but he graded out 76^th out of 85 eligible in 2012 and then 39^th in 2014. Still, the Chiefs made the no brainer move to pick up his option for 2016, which is guaranteed for injury only.

Bailey, meanwhile, got a 4-year, 25 million dollar extension last season. Bailey graded out above average in 2 of 3 seasons as a reserve from 2011-2013, after going in the 3^rd round in 2011, but he graded out below average in his first starting experience in 2014, grading out 33^rd out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. He’s not bad, but he’s a marginal starting caliber player that the Chiefs overpaid like an above average starter.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The biggest reason the Chiefs’ defense was good last season despite increased injuries is because their most important defensive player Justin Houston played all 16 games in 2014, after missing 5 games with an elbow problem in 2013. Houston finished 2013 as the #1 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus despite missing so much time and picked up right where he left off in 2014, finishing #1 again by nearly a double margin, putting up a near record breaking 22 sacks.

Aside from JJ Watt, he’s the arguably best defensive player in the NFL. A 2011 3^rd round pick, Houston has graded out 13^th, 4^th, 1^st, and 1^st among 3-4 outside linebackers in his career. The Chiefs didn’t let him hit free agency this off-season, giving him the franchise tag. The two sides are reportedly far from an agreement, but, barring an unlikely long holdout that could cause him to get out of shape, Houston will be a feared presence for the Chiefs off the edge again.

Tamba Hali remains opposite him, despite speculation that the Chiefs would cut him and promote 2014 1^st round pick Dee Ford, as was likely the plan when they drafted Ford. Hali is going into his age 32 season, but proved last season that he can still play at a high level, so the Chiefs kept him after he agreed to a reduced salary of 6 million dollars instead of his scheduled non-guaranteed 9 million. Hali has graded out above average in every season since 2009, since switching to 3-4 outside linebacker.

Hali was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, which is the 2nd worst he’s ranked out over the past 6 seasons, concerning considering his age, but still very solid. Ford will remain a backup and play a situational role again. He won’t play that many snaps, but he’s a good bet to see more than the 122 snaps he played last season, 4^th fewest by a first round rookie last year, ahead of Johnny Manziel, Marcus Smith, and Darqueze Dennard. In very limited action as a rookie, Ford flashed as a pass rusher, but struggled to stop the run, which was basically the book on him coming out of Auburn.

Derrick Johnson is the other Chief starter who is returning from a torn Achilles. Johnson is going into his age 33 season coming off of a torn Achilles, which is concerning, but he was so good before the injury that he should still be an asset for them inside. Johnson was a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2013. Even in 2009, the last season he was outside of the top-5, he graded out 8th and did it on 344 snaps. Todd Haley did a lot of things wrong in Kansas City, but his biggest success was his ability to bring the most out of Johnson, a 2005 1st round pick, with discipline and toughness. Haley benched Johnson during 2009 for a variety of reasons and that served as a much needed wakeup call.

Josh Mauga led Chief middle linebackers in snaps played last season in Johnson’s absence. Mauga was a 2009 undrafted free agent who played 235 snaps from 2009-2013 and was out of the league entirely in 2013, but he ended up making the Chiefs’ 53 man roster and starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. Mauga predictably struggled through, grading out 54th out of 60 eligible. The Chiefs brought him back as a free agent for 8 million over 3 years which suggests he’s likely to start inside next to Johnson. The Chiefs don’t really have a better option as James-Michael Johnson graded out 50^th among middle linebackers last season on just 446 snaps and Ramik Wilson and DJ Alexander are just 4^th and 5^th round rookies.

Grade: A-

Secondary

Fortunately, that other inside linebacker spot should once again be just a two-down spot as the Chiefs love using a 3^rd safety around the line of scrimmage instead of a 2^nd linebacker in sub packages. Eric Berry is typically that guy, but he was diagnosed with cancer last season. He’s fortunately doing well it sounds like, but the Chiefs did have to plan their off-season around him not being around in an on-the-field sense in 2015.

After Berry went down last season, Husain Abdullah became that hybrid safety/linebacker and will likely reprise that role this season as the Chiefs have enough safety depth that they can play 3 safeties in sub packages, even without Berry. Abdullah was a promising young safety in Minnesota early in his career, grading out above average in each of his first 4 seasons in the league as a starter since going undrafted in 2008, including the 2010 and 2011 seasons, when he was a starter. Set to make a decent amount of money in free agency, Abdullah abruptly retired because of concussions and sat out the 2012 season. Abdullah returned to NFL in a reserve role with the Chiefs in 2013, played well in limited action, and then became a starter in 2014, grading out above average again. Abdullah has very quietly been a solid safety throughout his career.

Opposite Abdullah, Ron Parker will be the other starting safety. Parker, an undrafted free agent in 2011, played 122 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013. He saw a ton of action last season though, playing 1037 snaps between cornerback and safety, but he struggled at both spots, grading out below average at cornerback and safety, including 73rd out of 87 eligible safeties on 745 snaps. He got a shocking 5-year, 25 million dollar contract this off-season to return to Kansas City, while Jimmy Wilson, a comparable player, got 4.6 million over 2 years from the division rival Chargers. He’s fine in coverage, but missed a league leading 22 tackles last season.

The other contract they gave out to a safety this off-season was better, as the Chiefs signed Tyvon Branch to a 1-year, 2.1 million dollar deal, coming over from Oakland. Branch has missed all but 4 games over the past 2 season with injuries, but he was once a solid safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2011 and their 30th ranked safety in 2012. He’s only going into his age 29 season. After all the injuries, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player again, but it was a nice, low risk signing. He’ll be the 3^rd safety in sub packages. If Berry can get healthy and get on the field this season, the Chiefs could easily use 4 safeties in sub packages, with Parker playing slot cornerback, something he did a fair amount of last season.

The Chiefs saw cornerback as a problem position this off-season and added Marcus Peters with the 18^th overall pick. He’ll immediately slot in as a starter. Peters has the talent to be worth a high pick, but he was kicked off of Washington’s football team last year for discipline problems and has a history of failed drug tests. He has a high upside, but, as is the case with most rookies, it’s important to have tempered expectations for him.

Sean Smith will remain the other starter and he’s coming off likely the best season of his career, grading out 5^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Smith has a concerning history of inconsistency though, so he’s far from a lock to repeat that kind of season. Smith graded out 10^th at his position in 2010, but graded out average or worse in 2011, 2012, and 2013, including 105^th out of 109 eligible in 2012. All in all, the 2009 2^nd round pick has graded out above average in 4 of 6 seasons in the NFL, but he’s had as many bad seasons and as many average seasons as he’s had dominant seasons.

As I mentioned earlier, if Berry can get back, Ron Parker will be the slot cornerback more often than not in sub packages, but that’s unlikely. Until that happens, it’ll be Phillip Gaines’ job to lose, with 3^rd round rookie Steven Nelson being the only real other challenger for the job. The 2014 3^rd round pick Gaines played 376 snaps non-descript snaps as a rookie in 2014. At best, he’s completely unproven, but he’ll be relied upon in a significant way in his 2^nd season in the league. It’s a question mark on an overall solid defense, led, of course, by Justin Houston.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Chiefs will once again move the chains at a decent rate thanks to Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, and Travis Kelce, but they will remain a limited offense. The offensive line should be even worse this season, even after the addition of Ben Grubbs, thanks to the loss of Rodney Hudson upfront and, while Jeremy Maclin makes them a more versatile offense, they’re still really thin behind him in the receiving corps. Defensively, they once again should be solid, especially with veterans Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito returning from injury. One of the best teams in the NFL to not make the playoffs last season, the Chiefs will be in the playoff mix again in 2015. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Chiefs after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in AFC West

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San Diego Chargers 2015 NFL Season Preview

June 9, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Chargers considered making a franchise altering move this off-season. Philip Rivers has been with the team since they drafted him 4^th overall in 2004 and has started all 144 games for them over the past 9 seasons, since becoming the starter in 2006. However, with Rivers going into an age 34 contract year, refusing to sign a contract extension as long as the team was considering moving to Los Angeles, the Chargers at least considered the possibility of moving Philip Rivers to Tennessee in part of a package for Marcus Mariota.

Keeping Rivers long-term was always their best case scenario if possible, but, feeling like it might not be possible, the Chargers brought in Mariota for a workout and at least appeared to strongly consider going that direction. Rivers could have raised his family (which is expecting their 8^th child) in Tennessee, close to his home in Alabama, rather than Los Angeles, and been reunited with Ken Whisenhunt, the Titans’ head coach and Rivers’ offensive coordinator during a 2013 season in which he tied a career high for quarterback rating. The Titans could have gotten a veteran starting quarterback and another pick. And the Chargers could have gotten a potential franchise quarterback for the future.

Ultimately, Rivers softened his stance and the Chargers dropped out of the race. The Titans, who ended up drafting Mariota, might not have taken a San Diego offer anyway, turning down a lucrative package of picks and players from Philadelphia for Mariota. Rivers will be back with the Chargers for at least his 10^th straight season as the starter (even if only for lack of a better option) and the Chargers would appear to have at least a decent chance of re-signing for the remainder of his career. If an extension can’t be worked out before next year’s free agency, the Chargers will have the ability to franchise tag Rivers next off-season.

As for the immediate future, Rivers should be able to put up another strong season. He’s going into his age 34 season, but plenty of good quarterbacks have had success into the mid-30s. Rivers career looked like it was on the decline in 2012, when he completed 64.1% of his passes for a career worst average of 6.84 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Rivers graded out 27^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season, after grading out in the top-6 in every season from 2008-2011.

However, Rivers has turned it around over the past 2 seasons, grading out 3^rd in 2013 and 7^th in 2014, as new Head Coach Mike McCoy has worked wonders with Rivers, following the dismissal of long-time head coach Norv Turner. He’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus once in their 8-year history and he’s completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.84 YPA, 252 touchdowns, and 122 interceptions in his career. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and keeping him was definitely the right short-term move.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Chargers didn’t add a quarterback in the first round, or at all in the draft for that matter, but they did add a running back, sending a 4^th round pick and a 2016 5^th round pick to San Francisco to move up 2 spots from 17 to 15 to ensure that they could draft Melvin Gordon from Wisconsin. Whether or not they needed to leap Houston to do that is debatable, but Gordon will definitely help their running game, which was a big need this off-season.

The Chargers fell from 2^nd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013 to 13^th in 2014, a big part of why they missed the playoffs. Part of that was decreased production from the quarterback position, as Rivers went from a career best season where he completed 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, to a career average season where he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. However, a much bigger part of it was the running game, which ranked 31^st in the NFL, averaging 3.43 yards per carry.

In 2013, Ryan Mathews finally stayed healthy and showed his first round talent for the first time in his career. He played all 16 games and rushed for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries, an average of 4.40 yards per carry. In 2014, it was more of the same frustration that the Chargers were used to from the one-time 12^th overall pick as Mathews missed 10 games with injury and was limited to 74 carries. The Chargers were also without passing down back Danny Woodhead for 13 games with a broken leg. He had 1034 yards and 8 touchdowns on 182 touches in 2013 in the old Darren Sproles role and graded out 7^th among running backs on Pro Football Focus.

In their absence, the Chargers’ running game was left to Branden Oliver and Donald Brown. Oliver was an undrafted rookie. Brown was brought in as veteran insurance last off-season through free agency, but he couldn’t even see playing time ahead of Oliver, as he averaged a pathetic 2.62 yards per carry on 85 carries. Oliver, meanwhile, flashed at times, but predictably struggled overall, rushing for 582 yards and 3 touchdowns on 160 carries, an average of just 3.64 YPC.

Gordon, who doesn’t have an injury history, will slot in as the primary running back on running downs, with Woodhead returning from injury to serve in his old passing down role. Gordon is just a rookie and Woodhead is 30 years old coming off of a broken leg so it’s important to temper expectations, but the Chargers seem in a lot better shape at the running back position now than they were last season. Branden Oliver would need an injury to see serious playing time, while Brown and his non-guaranteed 3 million dollar salary could be handed his walking papers.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Lack of running back talent was part of the reason why the Chargers struggled to run the ball last season, but it was also the fault of the offensive line largely. The Chargers’ offensive line has been a problem for years and last season they graded out 31^st in run blocking grade, in addition to 24^th in pass blocking grade. King Dunlap was the only offensive lineman to play a snap and grade out above average all season. The Chargers did well to re-sign Dunlap to a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal this off-season and also poach guard Orlando Franklin from the division rival Broncos with a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar deal, a solid value. On top of that, they signed Joseph Barksdale, a decent starter in St. Louis over the past 2 seasons, to a cheap one-year deal.

King Dunlap, a 2008 7th round pick and a late bloomer, started 6 games in his first 4 seasons combined, but he’s started 39 games (38 at left tackle and 1 at right tackle) over the past 3 seasons, 2012 with the Eagles and 2013 and 2014 with the Chargers. He graded out 37th in 2012, 6th in 2013, and 23rd in 2014. The big 6-9 310 pounder took a while to put it all together, but he’s developed into an above average offensive tackle and he’s only going into his age 30 season so he has at least a couple years left at that level most likely.

Franklin, meanwhile, has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. He’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. He’s an obvious upgrade over Chad Rinehart, who made all 16 starts at left guard last season, graded out 73^rd out of 78 eligible, and was promptly released this off-season.

Barksdale isn’t as good as Dunlap or Franklin, but signing him might have upgraded three spots at once for the Chargers on the offensive line. Barksdale will slot in at right tackle, where he made 29 starts over the past 2 seasons in St. Louis. A 3rd round pick of the Raiders in 2011, Barksdale barely played in his first 2 seasons in the league, playing 282 snaps in 2011-2012 combined. He became a starter in 2013 with the Rams, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked offensive tackle in 13 starts. He couldn’t quite match that in 2014, grading out slightly below average in 16 starts, but he’s still a starting caliber player. He’ll be an upgrade over DJ Fluker, who is moving inside to right guard.

The Chargers used the 11^th overall pick on Fluker in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in both seasons he’s been in the league, playing primarily right tackle, especially struggling in pass protection. With Barksdale coming in, Fluker will be moving to right guard in an attempt to turn his career around. His deficiencies in pass protection will be masked better inside, but it’s still a position he doesn’t have much familiarity with. He should still be an upgrade over Chris Watt and Fluker moving to right guard will allow Watt to move inside to center.

Chris Watt is another recent draft pick, a 2014 3^rd round pick who graded out slightly below average on 496 snaps split between right guard and center as a rookie. He’ll start at center, where the Chargers had 4 different starters last season, including Watt. Prior to this move, Trevor Robinson was expected to be the starting center. Watt is an upgrade on him. Robinson, a 2012 undrafted free agent, has played 707 snaps in 3 seasons in the league thus far and has graded out below average in all of them. An offensive line of Dunlap, Franklin, Watt, Fluker, and Barksdale is better at 3 spots than an offensive line of Dunlap, Franklin, Robinson, Watt, Fluker and the offensive line in general is significantly better now than it was at the start of the off-season, with Franklin and Barksdale coming in.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Chargers added both Melvin Gordon and Orlando Franklin this off-season, as I already mentioned. The only player they lost from the offense that played a key role for them last season was slot receiver Eddie Royal. Royal caught 47 passes for 631 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2013 and 62 catches for 778 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014, grading out above average in both seasons. However, the Chargers did adequately replace him, adding Steve Johnson, formerly of the Bills and 49ers.

Johnson had three straight thousand yard seasons from 2010-2012, despite questionable quarterback play in Buffalo. However, in the past 2 seasons he’s barely combined for 1000 yards, catching a combined 77 passes for 1032 yards and 6 touchdowns. That might lead you to think that he’s struggled in back-to-back seasons. That’s not entirely true. While he did struggle in 2013, he was simply underutilized last season in San Francisco.

Johnson was incredibly efficient in limited action last season for the 49ers. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver on just 305 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He caught 35 passes for 435 yards on 49 attempts (71.4%) and 204 routes run (2.13 yards per route run). He’s also graded out above average in 4 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus. Johnson should be better utilized in San Diego and has a chance to put up some solid overall numbers again.

He’ll replace Eddie Royal in the slot role and should be able to at least come close to matching his production. On top of that, while he has plenty of experience in the slot, he’s not a pure slot receiver like Royal was so he can play outside if needed. That probably won’t be needed unless injury strikes as Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd are locked into the outside spots for the time being, but Floyd is going into his age 34 season having missed 38 games over the past 8 seasons combined so injury might strike.

Floyd borderline miraculously played all 16 games last season, for the 2^nd time in his career dating back to 2004. This was despite the fact that in 2013 his injury plagued career seemed over last season, when he missed 14 games with a serious neck injury. He also led the team in receiving yards with 856, to go with 6 touchdowns on 52 catches, tying a career high in yardage. He was Pro Football Focus’ 21^st ranked wide receiver as a result. It’s tough to predict him to stay healthy and repeat a career year going into his age 34 season though. It’s good that they have Johnson for insurance. If Floyd misses time, Dontrelle Inman would get a chance as the #3 guy. Inman is a promising former CFL player that the Chargers like. He flashed on 123 snaps in his first NFL action last season, grading out slightly above average, and he has upside, but, until I see otherwise, he’s best off as the Chargers’ 4^th receiver.

Keenan Allen is once again locked in as the #1 guy. While he didn’t lead the team in receiving yards last season, he led them in catches and targets, despite missing a couple games with injury. Allen fell to the 3^rd round in 2013 as a result of a bad ankle and a slow 40 time, but he shocked everyone as a rookie, catching 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 touchdowns, despite struggling to get playing time early in the season. He finished his rookie year 10^th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and finished 2^nd for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award behind Eddie Lacy.

Allen was just one of 11 wide receivers to have 1000+ yards as a rookie over the past 20 seasons and just one of 3 who weren’t first round picks. Allen wasn’t quite as good in 2014, catching 77 passes for 783 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he still graded out above average and is a solid bet to bounce back in 2015. However, I don’t think he has the upside of some of the other guys who had 1000+ yard seasons as a rookie (including the likes of Odell Beckham, Randy Moss, AJ Green, and Joey Galloway). There’s still a reason he fell to the 3^rd round, as he lacks top end speed and athleticism. When I think of a career trajectory for him, I think he’ll have a career more in line with Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston, the other two non-first round picks to have 1000+ yards as a rookie. He’s a big asset in the passing game, but he’s quite not one of the top receivers in the NFL.

Malcom Floyd isn’t the only aging pass catcher the Chargers have, as Antonio Gates is going into his age 35 season. Gates and Rivers have connected for 74 touchdowns in 9 seasons together, 5^th most by a quarterback/receiver duo in NFL history, and within striking distance of Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne in 4^th with 76. However, between Gates, Rivers, and Floyd, the Chargers do have 3 important offensive skill position players who are into their mid-30s, which is moderately concerning. Gates is going into a contract year, like Rivers, and there’s been talking about reducing Gates’ role this season, so it’s unclear how many more touchdowns Rivers and Gates will connect for, but Gates should continue being an asset for this team this season.

Gates, like most of this offense, looked done in 2012 in the final year of Norv Turner, catching just 49 passes for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he too has bounced back over the past 2 seasons, catching 69 passes for 821 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013 and 77 passes for 872 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2014. He’s graded out 14^th and 7^th respectively over the past 2 seasons in pure pass catching grade among tight ends on Pro Football Focus. His run blocking abilities have deteriorated as he’s grown older, but he’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history. He probably won’t see the 996 snaps he saw in 2013 or even the 787 snaps he saw last season, but he’ll still be a weapon for them in the passing game in a reduced role, unless his abilities fall off a cliff or he gets hurt, very possible, considering his age.

Any reduction in snaps played by Gates this season, either because by injury or coach’s decision, would be the benefit of #2 tight end Ladarius Green. Green, a 2012 4^th round pick, has played well as the #2 tight end over the past 2 seasons, grading out above average in both seasons, but he’s stuck behind Gates on the depth chart once again. He may set a new career high in snaps played, but his current career high is only 370 so I’m not expecting a huge role for him this season. An annual popular breakout player behind an aging Gates, Green is already heading into the contract year of his rookie deal so, if he ever turns into a solid starter in his career, there’s a good chance it’s not in San Diego. For now, he’ll provide valuable depth, both as a pass catcher and a run blocker. He’s part of a deep and talented receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Chargers’ offense was significantly better in 2013 than it was in 2014. Despite that, they still almost made the playoffs thanks to a defense that improved from 28^th in rate of moving the chains differential allowed to 17^th in 2014. The Chargers have done a good job of re-making their defense over the past 2 seasons, particularly in the secondary. However, the Chargers do still have problems on the defensive line.

The biggest problem is Kendall Reyes, a 2012 2^nd round pick who has been horrible over the past 2 seasons. After grading out slightly below average on 541 snaps as a rookie, Reyes has graded out 44^th out of 45 eligible in 2013 and 46^th out of 47 eligible in 2014. The Chargers didn’t add any competition for him this off-season, so he’ll be the starter once again in his contract year in 2015, but the Chargers shouldn’t spend much effort bringing him back long-term and should find an upgrade next off-season.

Things are better on the other side with Corey Liuget, but only by default, as the 2011 1^st round pick has been up and down throughout his career thus far. Liuget graded out above average in 2014, as he did in 2012, but he also graded out 37^th out of 45 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2013 and 29^th out of 32 eligible in 2011. The Chargers picked up his 5^th year option for 2015 last off-season so he’ll play this season on it, but he’s entering a make or break 5^th season in the league that will impact what kind of long-term deal he gets in the next year.

Behind Reyes and Liuget, all the Chargers really have is Ricardo Matthews, a 2010 7^th round pick and mediocre career journeyman who graded out above average on 303 snaps last season. Between them, at nose tackle, they have Sean Lissemore, who graded out slightly below average on 338 snaps last season. Lissemore is a pure two-down player and a borderline starting caliber nose tackle at 6-3 298. He’s graded out above average in 3 of 5 seasons in the league since going in the 7^th round in 2010, but the 338 snaps he played last season were a career high.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The first pick the Chargers used on defense this year was in the 2^nd round, when they drafted Denzel Perryman out of Miami. It was seen as a weird pick because, while the Chargers had big needs defensively at outside linebacker and defensive end, middle linebacker was seen as being a pretty secure spot, with 2013 2^nd round pick Manti Te’o starting inside next to Donald Butler, whose contract is structured such that he couldn’t be cut this off-season without a massive cap hit.

Butler is overpaid and overrated (more on that later), but the Chargers are kind of stuck with him right now so the Perryman pick is likely more of an indictment on Te’o than anything. It’s weird for a team to give up on a 2^nd round pick this early, especially one that hasn’t been that bad thus far in his career, but he hasn’t been great either and could be upgraded. Te’o has missed 9 games with injury thus far in his career and has never played more than 538 snaps in a season. He graded out below average as a rookie and then slightly above average in 2014. He and Perryman will compete for the starting job and, at the very least, Perryman will be improved depth in case Te’o gets hurt again.

Butler seems locked into a starting job, unfortunately. Butler, a 2010 3^rd round pick, graded out 16^th among middle linebackers in 2011 and 17^th in 2012, but saw that slip to 45^th out of 55 eligible in 2013. He also missed 23 games combined in those 4 seasons. However, the Chargers gave him a 7-year, 51 million dollar contract last off-season anyway and it went about as bad as it could have in 2014. Butler missed another 2 games with injury and graded out 58^th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers. The Chargers couldn’t cut him this off-season without incurring a massive cap hit so they’re essentially stuck hoping he bounces back after two straight bad seasons.

On the outside in the Chargers’ 3-4, they surprisingly didn’t add in the draft until Kyle Emmanuel in the 5^th round and he won’t be much of a factor as a rookie. The Chargers lost veterans Dwight Freeney and Jarret Johnson both this off-season, going into their age 35 and 34 seasons respectively, leaving youngsters Melvin Ingram and Jerry Attachou to large roles in 2015. Even if they’re comfortable with those 2 starting, their lack of depth behind them should still be concerning.

Attachou, a 2014 2^nd round pick, graded out slightly below average on 182 snaps as a rookie and is a complete projection to an every down role. Melvin Ingram, meanwhile, is a 2012 1^st round pick who has yet to live up to expectations. The Chargers picked up his 5^th year option for 2015, but that option is guaranteed for injury only so he’s no guarantee to be on this roster beyond this season if he doesn’t improve. Ingram’s biggest issue has been injuries. Not only have they caused him to miss 19 games over the past 2 seasons combined, but they’ve limited him on the field as well, as he’s graded out slightly below average in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out slightly above average as a rookie. First it was a torn ACL in 2013 and then it was a bad hip problem in 2014. Ingram figures to break his career high of 511 snaps this season and then some if he stays healthy this season, but he’s hard to trust.

Between Ingram’s unreliability and Attachou’s inexperience, I was expecting the Chargers to add some depth at the position this off-season. They could still bring back Dwight Freeney, who is going into his age 35 season, but did grade out above average last season, something the future Hall of Famer has done in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history. As it currently stands, their top reserves at the position are Tourek Williams, a 2013 6^th round pick who has struggled on 353 career snaps in his career, and Cordarro Law, a 2012 undrafted free agent who flashed on 76 snaps last season in the first action of his career. As it currently stands, both Attachou and Ingram will be counted on for 700+ snaps each.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Chargers have a lot of problems in their front 7 that they really didn’t address this off-season, but their secondary is definitely a redeeming part of this defense. The Chargers have done a fantastic job rebuilding their secondary over the past couple of years. In 2013, the Chargers had 4 cornerbacks all rank 95^th or worse among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, a big part of the reason why their defense in general struggled so much. As a result, they went out and added veteran Brandon Flowers through free agency and Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft last year.

Shareece Wright still saw 14 starts in the secondary because Verrett missed 10 games with injury and he once again struggled, grading out 105^th out of 108 eligible, after grading out 103^rd out of 110 eligible in 2013. However, Wright is now gone as a free agent, addition by subtraction, and Verrett is expected to be healthy after dealing with a shoulder problem for most of his rookie year, dating back to the pre-draft process. Wright was playing very well despite the injury before going down.

Despite playing just 230 snaps, Verrett would have finished 16^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus had he been eligible, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. Through week 6, the rookie was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked cornerback, allowing 44.0% completion, which gives me a lot of hope for the youngster’s future. His injury is a big part of the reason why the Chargers allowed opponents to move the chains at a 69.12% rate in their first 5 games, as opposed to 73.81% in their final 11 games. Verrett’s return will be big for this secondary.

Brandon Flowers’ return will also be big for this secondary as the Chargers kept him on a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal, which, like the deals they gave to King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin, was a very appropriate value. The Chargers signed him to a one-year, prove it deal last off-season, after Flowers was cut by the Chiefs, following a 2013 season where he was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. That risk paid off big time, as Flowers finished the season 15^th among cornerbacks, giving them a much needed #1 cornerback, even after Verrett went down.

Aside from 2013, Flowers has been one of the best cornerbacks in football over the last 6 years. From 2009-2012, Flowers graded out in the top-9 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that. The 5-10 189 pounder doesn’t fit every scheme and he was a horrible fit for Bob Sutton’s man press scheme in Kansas City in 2013, but San Diego clearly knows how to use him and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when used properly. He’s only going into his age 29 season, so he should remain a big asset for the Chargers in the secondary this season.

With Shareece Wright gone, the Chargers signed Patrick Robinson to be the 3^rd cornerback behind Flowers and Verrett and also used a 3rd round pick on Craig Mager for the future. Patrick Robinson has essentially been a bust as a 2010 1st round pick, but it hasn’t been for lack of talent. He’s just missed 22 games in 5 seasons and has had serious trouble consistently staying healthy and on the field. His best season came in 2011, when he played 15 games (7 starts) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback, but that’s not the norm for him. In 2014, he played 624 snaps in 14 games, starting 6 of them, and grading out about average. That’s more par for the course. He’s a solid fit as the 3rd cornerback for the Chargers.

In addition to a solid group of cornerbacks, the Chargers also have arguably the best safety in the game in Eric Weddle, a holdover from the previous regime and someone who has been there since the Chargers drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2007. Weedle has graded out in the top-6 among safeties in every season from 2010-2014 on Pro Football Focus, the only safety in the NFL that can say that. Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty might be better deep safeties, but I don’t know if there is a better all-around safety than Weedle. He grades out well both against the run and against the pass and has played about half of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage and half outside of 8 yards in the last 2 seasons.

The issue is that Weddle is not happy with his lack of an extension as he enters a contract year. Weddle definitely has a legitimate gripe as he’s been one of the top safeties in the NFL and has plenty of evidence for why he should get both a pay increase and some additional long-term security. Weddle will make 7.5 million in an age 30 contract year in 2015. He’s likely looking at megadeals signed by Earl Thomas (4 years, 40 million), Devin McCourty (5 years, 47.5 million), and Jairus Byrd (6 years, 54 million) over the last year or so and looking to get one last big deal into his career.

However, the Chargers do have to be careful that they’re not paying for past performance as Weddle enters his 30s. A deal that gives him more money in 2015 and guaranteed money in 2016, but that stops short of guaranteeing money in 2017, would be fine. A 4-year, 34 million dollar deal that guarantees him 18 million in the first 2 seasons would make sense. A 5-year deal worth 10+ million annually with guaranteed money into 2017 could be more damaging long-term. As for the short-term, barring a significant holdout that gets him out of shape for the season, Weddle is a fixture in this talented secondary and one of the best defensive backs in football.

The Chargers lost their other starting safety, Marcus Gilchrist this off-season, but he was overpaid on a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal from the Jets. Gilchrist has made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons and played well in 2013, but struggled in 2014. The Chargers will try to replace him with Jahleel Addae and/or Jimmy Wilson. The former played 437 nondescript snaps last season and 374 nondescript snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2013, coming in during sub packages as a 3^rd safety, with Gilchrist moving to the slot. With Patrick Robinson and Eric Mager in town, the Chargers will likely very rarely have to use three safeties this season, but Addae and Wilson could both see snaps this season.

The latter is a free agent acquisition from Miami, a similar player to Gilchrist who got a lot less in free agency (2 years, 4.25 million), another strong move from the Chargers’ front office. He played both cornerback and safety in Miami, but I like him more as a 3rd cornerback or safety. He should be more of a 500-600 snap player than a 1000+ snap player like Gilchrist has been the last 2 seasons. He played a career high 791 snaps in 2014, as he was the Dolphins’ primary nickel cornerback and made several starts at safety as well, with Louis Delmas getting hurt to end the season and Reshad Jones getting suspended for the start of the season. He graded out below average in 2014 though, making it twice in three seasons that the 2011 7^th round pick had done that. Overall, it’s a strong secondary, especially if everyone is healthy, which lifts up the rest of this defense.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Chargers’ went from 2^nd in rate of moving the chains in 2013 to 13^th in 2014. This season, they should be somewhere in between. The Chargers had the most offensive injuries in the NFL last season in terms of adjusted games lost. One key player returning from injury is Danny Woodhead, who will pair with new starting running back Melvin Gordon, running behind an improved offensive line thanks to the additions of Joseph Barksdale and Orlando Franklin. That should help their offense, after they had one of the worst running games in the NFL last season. They still have major issues on defense, aside from the secondary, so that will hold them back, but they should be in the hunt for a playoff spot again, as they have been in the last 2 seasons. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Chargers after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 10-6 2nd in AFC West

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