San Francisco 49ers sign DE Darnell Dockett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The Cardinals cut Darnell Dockett last week, saving 6.8 million on the cap by avoiding paying him a non-guaranteed 6.8 million dollar salary. Dockett isn’t getting nearly that much with San Francisco, as he signed for 7.5 million over 2 years with just 2 million in the first year guaranteed. However, that’s still too much. Anything more than a minimum deal with incentives for Dockett would have been too much. Dockett is going into his age 34 season after missing all of 2014 with a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem.

He wasn’t that good before the injury either as he was perennially one of the NFL’s most overrated players, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. The 49ers have a need at the 3-4 defensive end position with Ray McDonald getting kicked off the team with off-the-field problems and Justin Smith considering retirement, going into his age 36 season, but giving Dockett starter’s money and counting on Dockett to start is a mistake. The Cardinals should feel happy that they stuck their divisional rival with a dud.

Grade: D

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Baltimore Ravens 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Things were so bad at cornerback for the Ravens that Rashaan Melvin, a 2013 undrafted free agent who was signed mid-season and made his NFL debut week 15, drew the start for them in the playoffs. Jimmy Smith’s injury was a big part of the problem, but the problem has been there since last off-season, when they failed to find a replacement for Corey Graham, their talented #3 cornerback who signed with Buffalo. Their depth was shaky coming into the season (#3 cornerback Asa Jackson had never played a defensive snap in the NFL coming into this season) and this kind of situation was foreseeable. Smith will be back healthy next year, but Lardarius Webb could be an off-season cap casualty. He hasn’t been the same since a 2012 ACL tear and the Ravens would save 2 million on the cap and 8 million in cash by cutting him this off-season. Even if he sticks around, they need a 3rd cornerback.

Wide Receiver

The Ravens are pretty backed up against the cap so re-signing Torrey Smith is a luxury they probably won’t be able to afford. Steve Smith led the team in receiving with 79 catches for 1065 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, there’s a very good chance that’s his last 1000 yard season and that he’s due for a big dropoff in production soon, as he’s going into his age 36 season. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Marlon Brown could start in Torrey Smith’s absence, but the 2013 undrafted free agent graded out 82nd out 111 eligible wide receivers as a rookie in 2013 and then proceeded to play just 379 snaps in 2014. Depth is definitely needed at the position.

Tight End

Given how thin the Ravens are at wide receiver, their lack of tight end depth is especially concerning. Dennis Pitta caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2012, but has played just 7 games since then thanks to a hip injury. He’ll be back as his 5 million dollar salary is fully guaranteed, but there’s no guarantee he can stay healthy, play a big role, or play well, as he’s going into his age 30 season having suffered two hip dislocations. Owen Daniels was the starter in his absence in 2014, but he might not be back, as a free agent going into his age 33 season. Michael Campanero was drafted in the 3rd round in 2014 and could be ready for a bigger role in 2015, after grading out above average on 376 snaps as a rookie, but they should still add at the position this off-season.

Running Back

Justin Forsett was a godsend at running back for the Ravens after the Ray Rice incident, rushing for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries, an average of 5.39 YPC. However, he’s a free agent now and might not be back. There’s also debate about whether or not they should even bring him back as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak was largely responsible for his success and now he’s gone. He’s also going into his age 30 season already and has only surpassed 118 carries and 627 yards once in his career. Behind him, Lorenzo Taliaferro is an unproven 2014 4th round pick with 68 career carries, while Bernard Pierce has a mere 3.78 YPC average in his career.

Defensive End

Haloti Ngata and Chris Canty led the Ravens in snaps played by 3-4 defensive ends last season, but they are going into their age 31 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2015, both of which happen to be contract years. Both players are cap casualty candidates because the Ravens are backed up against the cap and can save a significant amount of cap space by letting one or both of these players go.

Key Free Agents

OLB Pernell McPhee

Pernell McPhee graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 despite playing just 540 snaps. He was 2nd in the NFL behind only JJ Watt with 21 quarterback hits. He’s not a one year wonder as that type of player either as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle as a 5th round rookie in 2011 on just 348 snaps and has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. Supremely versatile with experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 4-3 defensive end, a 3-4 defensive end, and a 4-3 defensive tackle, McPhee is only going into his age 27 season and could break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game in his next home if he’s given a bigger role. At the same time, he’s still never played more than 540 snaps in a season so he’s still unproven as a full-time starter and he’s still unproven outside of Baltimore, where they have such great supporting talent defensively. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 8 million dollars per year. The Ravens have good depth at 3-4 outside linebacker with Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, and Courtney Upshaw so they’re unlikely to bring McPhee back, given how little cap space they have.

WR Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league. He’ll probably be paid around 7 million dollars annually (between what Golden Tate and Eric Decker got last off-season) and that’s probably a little rich for him. He’s probably out of the Ravens’ price range too.

RB Justin Forsett

Coming into 2014, Justin Forsett was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. However, Forsett took advantage of the Ray Rice situation and rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. His 5.08 career average is very nice, but he’s already going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. After breaking out in Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme in 2014, a union with the Atlanta Falcons makes sense for both sides. The Falcons have a running back need after cutting Steven Jackson and Kubiak disciple Kyle Shanahan is the offensive coordinator there.

TE Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008 and has missed 27 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He’s also going into his age 33 season. However, he had a decent season in 2014, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 attempts (66.7%) and 410 routes run (1.29 yards per route run) in 15 games. He’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in each of the last 4 seasons and he’s a decent run blocker too. He’s a borderline starter with little long-term upside and should be paid like one, but he could still be a solid veteran addition for a team. He’s played his whole career for Gary Kubiak, first in Houston where he was head coach and then Baltimore where he was offensive coordinator, and could follow Kubiak to Denver, where the Broncos are in need of a tight end with Julius Thomas likely to leave in free agency.

S Darian Stewart

Stewart is a 2010 undrafted free agent who impressed on 196 snaps as a rookie, grading out above average, but was forced into a starting role too early in 2011, as he graded out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season. As a result, he played just 82 snaps in 2012, but he’s rehabbed his value in the last two seasons. In 2013, he graded out only slightly below average on 583 snaps and then in 2014 he graded out above average for the first time since his rookie season on 782 snaps (14 starts). Stewart is an unspectacular player, but he hits the open market as a fringe starter in a league with lack of depth at the safety position and could make a decent amount of money on the open market. With Will Hill, Matt Elam, and Terrence Brooks under contract for 2015, the cap strapped Ravens will likely not be bringing him back this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Chris Canty

Chris Canty was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle as recently as 2012 and graded out above average as recently as 2013, but he graded out below average on just 360 snaps in 2014. That’s especially concerning considering he’s entering his age 33 season. Also concerning is the fact that he missed 5 games with injury. The last season he played all 16 games was 2011 and he’s missed 13 games over the past 3 seasons combined. The Ravens would save 2.66 million by cutting him. They wouldn’t miss him much and need to cut unnecessary players with significant cap numbers.

CB Lardarius Webb

Lardarius Webb was given a 6-year, 52.742 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2011. However, Webb tore his ACL in 2012, seemed to bounce back in 2013, grading out 19th, but regressed mightily in 2014, grading out 78th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. He missed 3 games with injury and was limited in countless others with back problems. Webb has missed 16 games in 6 seasons and has injury issues that date back to his collegiate days so he’s an injury risk going forward. He could bounce back next year, but the Ravens are backed up against the cap and might opt to let him go. The Ravens can only save 2 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season, but they’d save 8 million in cash and have him off their cap completely for 2016. Designating him as a June 1st cut another option. That would free up more cap space this year, but he’d still be on their cap for 2016.

DE Haloti Ngata

Haloti Ngata’s name has been mentioned as someone who could be cut. The Ravens are backed up against the cap and can save 8.5 million on the cap and in cash by cutting Ngata ahead of his contract year. A better solution would be to give him an extension that immediately lowers his contract number and keeps him under contract for 2016 and beyond, as they did with Terrell Suggs last off-season. Ngata is going into his age 31 season, but he’s still a very valuable player. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007.

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Washington Redskins sign DE Ricky Jean-Francois

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

In Ricky Jean-Francois’ first trip to the open market in two off-seasons ago, he was given a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal by the Colts, a very weird move considering RJF had played just 715 snaps in 4 season with the 49ers from 2009-2012, after they drafted him in the 7th round. He did flash, grading out above average in both 2010 and 2011, but he didn’t deserve that kind of deal then and it predictably didn’t end well. The Colts cut him this off-season after two seasons. He made 23 starts in 26 games with the Colts and graded out about average in both seasons, but the Colts didn’t see him as worth his salary for 2015.

His second trip to the open market went differently, as the Redskins signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed. That’s much more appropriate for him. He’ll slot in as a starter opposite Jason Hatcher at 3-4 defensive end for the Redskins and be an immediate upgrade over Jarvis Jenkins, who graded out 45th out of 47 eligible at his position in 2014. Jenkins is a free agent, while overpaid, aging reserves Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, who both struggled mightily last season, are expected to be cut.

Grade: A-

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign WR Cole Beasley

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Cole Beasley is an ascending slot receiver who has seen his snaps go up in every season since he went undrafted in 2012, playing 128 snaps in 2012, 247 snaps in 2013, and 443 snaps in 2014, grading out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2014, he caught 37 passes for 420 yards and 4 touchdowns on 48 targets (77.1%) and 308 routes run (1.36 yards per route run). The Cowboys could have kept him in the 2 million dollar range for 2015 as a restricted free agent on a 2nd round tender, but instead decided to commit to him long-term with this 4-year, 13.6 million dollar deal that will guarantee him 7 million over the first 2 seasons. It’s a gamble because he’s still relatively unproven, but it could pay off as he could have gotten a deal similar to the one Doug Baldwin got last off-season (3 years, 13 million with 8.5 million guaranteed) on the open market next off-season if he had another solid season.

Grade: B-

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Buffalo Bills trade MLB Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia Eagles for RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Eagles, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: I’m probably going against the grain with this, but I love this deal. People are wondering who will replace McCoy. Well, it’s a deep running back draft and a deep running back free agency class. It’s going to be tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2013 production, when he rushed for 1607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 314 carries (5.12 YPC) and added 52 catches for 539 yards and another two touchdowns. It’s not going to be that tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2014 production, when he rushed for 1319 yards and 5 touchdowns on 312 carries (4.23 YPC) and added just 28 catches for 155 yards.

McCoy could bounce back in 2015, but there’s evidence to suggest he won’t. He’s only graded out higher than 10th among running backs on Pro Football Focus once in 6 years in the league (2013) and he’s going into his age 27 season with 1761 touches at a position that doesn’t have a long lifespan. He’s a good, not great running back in a league where running backs rarely get the kind of money McCoy is still owed over the next 3 seasons (24.25 million).

Kiko Alonso, meanwhile, is owed just 1.7 million over the next 2 seasons on his rookie deal. Like McCoy, he had a strong 2013 that he didn’t replicate in 2014. Alonso graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked middle linebacker in 2013, but missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL. However, I like his chances of bouncing back more than McCoy because he’s only going into his age 25 season at a position with a much longer lifespan. A torn ACL is hard to recover from, but Alonso suffered that injury back in June of 2014 and has youth on his side.

He’ll be an obvious upgrade over DeMeco Ryans, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013, before missing 8 games with a torn Achilles in 2014. He and Mychal Kendricks will be a strong, young middle linebacker duo for the Eagles inside. The Eagles also will save 6.9 million on the cap by letting Ryans go. Between that and the 8.55 million they saved from trading McCoy, this move saves them about 15 million on the cap (Alonso’s cap number for the Eagles will be about 750K this season). That’s a significant amount for a team that figures to be major players in free agency. This move could allow them to add someone like Devin McCourty to their secondary and have cap room left over.

Grade: A

Trade for Bills: I don’t hate this deal for the Bills as much as I love it for the Eagles. The reason for that is that Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham both broke out as every down linebackers for the Bills in 2014 in Alonso’s absence and they could still re-sign Brandon Spikes, a solid two-down run stopper. However, you still don’t trade a younger, cheaper player for an older, more expensive player, at a position with a shorter careerspan. I would have liked to see the Bills pick up some sort of draft pick in this deal. I’m not sure McCoy would have gotten 24.25 million over 3 years on the open market if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving up that and a talented young linebacker for him. It’s not a good deal.

Grade: D

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Carolina Panthers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Offensive Tackle

Byron Bell was arguably the weakest starting left tackle in the NFL going into the season and he played about as expected, grading out 85th out of 86 eligible offensive tackles. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Panthers desperately need to find an upgrade. On the right side, Nate Chandler was also a disaster, grading out 68th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles in 11 games before going down for the season with an injury. Even if Mike Remmers, a 2014 undrafted free agent who played well at right tackle down the stretch in Chandler’s absence, is the solution on the right side, they still need help on the left side and they could easily need to add two offensive tackles.

Wide Receiver

The Panthers were one of five teams with two 1000+ yard receivers (Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans, Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders). However, that was largely because they didn’t have any receiving options after Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. Those two received 49.25% of the Panthers targets, the highest percentage by any two teammates. Olsen is a tight end anyway. They desperately need wide receiver help after Benjamin on the depth chart. The Panthers’ next three wide receivers (Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and Philly Brown) combined for just 4 more targets than Benjamin. Cotchery is going into his age 33 season, Avant was cut mid-season, Brown is just a slot receiver that went undrafted in 2014, and all 3 of them graded out below average in pass catching grade.

Cornerback

Antoine Cason led Panther cornerbacks in snaps played last season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 97th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible last season and was cut before the end of the season. Josh Norman, Melvin White, and Bene Benwikere were next in snaps played. Norman and Benwikere both graded out above average, but Norman graded out below average as a 5th round rookie in 2012 and then again in 2013, while Benwikere was a mere 5th round rookie this season, so both of them are hard to trust into 2015. White, meanwhile, graded out 94th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014. He’s graded out below average in both seasons since he went undrafted in 2013. They could add this off-season.

Safety

Roman Harper and Thomas DeCoud were signed as reclamation projects last off-season for the Panthers. DeCoud graded out below average in 2012 and 2013, including 82nd out of 86 eligible in 2013. Harper, meanwhile, graded out below average in 2011, 2012, and 2013, including 86th out of 88 eligible in 2012. Harper was decent in 2014, but he’s going into his age 33 season, while DeCoud once again graded out below average. Reserve Tre Boston was decent, but he was an inexperienced 4th round rookie, so they could still add at the position this off-season.

Defensive End

The Panthers have already said they won’t be re-signing Greg Hardy, after suspending him for 15 games as a result of off-the-field issues. They didn’t fare well opposite Charles Johnson in his absence last season as Wes Horton, Mario Addison, and Kony Ealy graded out 49th, 39th, and 56th respectively out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Kony Ealy was a 2nd round pick in 2014, so he could be better in 2015 and he’s still a big part of their future plans, but they need to add to the position.

Tight End

Wide receiver isn’t the only place where the Panthers have depth problems in the receiving corps. Ed Dickson was predictably horrible as their #2 tight end last season, grading out 60th out of 67 eligible. He was Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked tight end out of 64 eligible in 2013 with Baltimore before the Panthers signed him so that shouldn’t have been a surprise and they shouldn’t bring him back as a free agent. Adding a 2nd tight end would help this offense.

Key Free Agents

DE Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy had such a bright future at this time last year, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013 and their 6th ranked in 2012. The Panthers, eager to keep him long-term, franchised tagged Hardy last off-season, guaranteeing him 13.1 million for 2015, but they would end up regretting that. Hardy was arrested for and convicted of domestic violence in the off-season. He was allowed by the NFL to play for the Panthers week 1 because he was appealing the verdict, but public pressure forced the Panthers inactivate Hardy for the final 15 games of the season, meaning the Panthers got just 1 game for that 13.1 million. Hardy is still young (going into his age 27 season), still talented, and got the charges dropped this off-season, but he could be rusty, he got the charges dropped on a technicality, he’s still facing a suspension from the NFL, and he remains an off-the-field risk long-term. The Panthers have already said they’re moving on from him. It’ll be interesting to see what his market is this off-season. If he’s smart, he’ll take a one-year deal, bet on himself, stay clean and make a boatload of money next off-season.

G Fernando Velasco

Fernando Velasco was the Titans’ 11th ranked center in 2012, but the Titans still made him a final cut the following off-season. It was a curious move at the time, but now it makes a little bit more sense. That 2012 season is very uncharacteristic when you look at his whole career. The only other season he’s graded out above average since entering the league in 2008 was 2011, when he played just 28 snaps. Since being released by the Titans, he graded out below average on 758 snaps at center in 2013 in Pittsburgh in place of an injured Maurkice Pouncey and below average on 407 snaps at guard in 2014 with the Panthers. He’s a reserve interior offensive lineman.

DT Dwan Edwards

Dwan Edwards has graded out below average in each of the last 5 seasons, averaging 595 snaps per season over that time period. In 2014, he graded out 63rd out of 81 eligible defensive tackles on 591 snaps. Going into his age 34 season, things aren’t going to get better. He won’t draw a big market this off-season and might end up retiring. If he plays next year, he’ll probably be signed late in the off-season and have a small role.

TE Ed Dickson

Ed Dickson has graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL (4 with the Ravens and the last one with the Panthers) since the Ravens drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s been especially bad in each of the past 2 seasons, grading out 63rd out of 64 eligible tight end in 2013 and 60th out of 67 eligible in 2014. He’s a fringe roster player.

OT Byron Bell

Byron Bell is experienced, with 56 starts in 4 seasons since the Panthers signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2011, but he’s not very good. He was horrible to start his career at right tackle, grading out 69th out of 76 eligible in 2011, 61st out of 80 eligible in 2012, and 53rd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Predictably, he wasn’t better in 2014 when forced to play the blindside, grading out 83rd out of 84 eligible. He’s a swing tackle at best and not a very good one. The Panthers have already said they aren’t going to be bringing him back in any capacity

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB DeAngelo Williams

The Panthers signed DeAngelo Williams to a massive 5-year, 43 million dollar deal in the 2011 off-season and, even after a restructured contract with a severe pay cut given to him two off-seasons ago, the Panthers are only now at the point where they can release Williams as a post-June cut and save on the cap. They’ll only save 2 million on the cap by doing that and they won’t even have him completely off their cap until 2017, but they’ll save 2 million in cash and Williams is going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he missed 10 games with injury and averaged just 3.53 yards per carry. Jonathan Stewart is much younger and played way better last season.

FB Mike Tolbert

Mike Tolbert has had some good years, but he’s coming off of a season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked fullback out of 23eligible. He could bounce back in 2015, but he’s going into his age 30 season and his 2.45 million dollar salary is a lot for a fullback who isn’t one of the best in the NFL so he might not even be worth his salary even if he does bounce back. The Panthers can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

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Arizona Cardinals 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Outside Linebacker

With John Abraham playing just 37 snaps thanks to a serious concussion, the Cardinals really struggled to rush the passer this season, particularly from the outside linebacker position. Alex Okafor led the position in snaps played, but graded out 45th out of 46 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers. Sam Acho was better, but he only played 483 snaps and now is a free agent. Help is needed at the position this off-season. Matt Shaughnessy should be healthier in 2015 after missing 8 games with injury in 2014, but he’s only a marginal player at best.

Guard

The Cardinals’ guard play was horrendous last season. Starters Paul Fanaika and Ted Larsen graded out 71st and 68th out of 78 eligible guards respectively last season. Fanaika is a free agent, while Larsen could be a cap casualty or benched this off-season. The Cardinals drafted Jonathan Cooper 7th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft, making him the highest drafted true guard in over two decades, and he’s been a massive bust thus far, struggling with injuries and performance, playing just 189 snaps in 2 seasons combined in the NFL. It’s possible he morphs into a starter in 2015, but the Cardinals still need to add more talent at this position this off-season.

Middle Linebacker

Larry Foote led Cardinal middle linebackers in snaps played last season, but he was horrible, grading out 56th out of 60 eligible players. A free agent going into his age 35 season, Foote is likely done in the NFL and is expected to take a coaching job with the Cardinals. Kevin Minter, a 2013 2nd round pick, did a decent job in the two-down role next to Washington, with a 3rd safety usually playing around the line of scrimmage as a 2nd linebacker in sub packages. Daryl Washington is a talented middle linebacker when on the field and more than capable of playing the three-down role, but he missed the entire 2014 season with suspension and might not be reinstated for the start of the 2015 season. His checkered off-the-field history makes him a shaky bet moving forward. The Cardinals should add here at some point this off-season.

Running Back

The Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per carry last season, averaging 3.29 yards per carry. That was largely a result of Andre Ellington averaging 3.28 yards per carry on 201 carries as the lead back, as he struggled through a variety of injuries, before eventually getting shut down for the season late in the season. Ellington averaged 5.53 yards per carry in 2013 as a 6th round rookie, but that was on just 118 carries and, considering his injury history dates back to his days at Clemson, there’s a good chance that the 5-9 199 pound back isn’t capable of staying healthy over 250-300 carries. The Cardinals seem confident going into 2015 with him as the starter, but they need to upgrade their depth behind him, given how unreliable he is. The trio of Kerwynn Williams, Stepfan Taylor, Marion Grice averaged 3.78 yards per carry last season and has essentially no proven NFL success.

Cornerback

Antonio Cromartie did a solid job, making 16 starts for the Cardinals last season and playing pretty well, but he’s a free agent this off-season. Everything sounds like he’s New York bound to re-join the Jets and former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Jerraud Powers was their 3rd cornerback last season. He has experience as a starter and he’s done a solid job in the past when counted on in that role, including 2013 with the Cardinals, but the Cardinals will need to replenish depth, assuming Cromartie does, in fact, leave.

Center

Lyle Sendlein was horrible last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 40th ranked center out of 41 eligible. He’s been a solid veteran for them for years and he’s definitely had better days, but he’s now going into his age 31 season. The Cardinals can save 3.15 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season and they could find a cheaper, better starter in free agency.

Defensive Tackle

Dan Williams is a free agent this off-season. He’s been their starting nose tackles essentially for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010, making 40 starts over that time period, including 9 last season. The Cardinals will have to replace him if they’re unable to retain him this off-season as they don’t have a clear successor on the roster.

Quarterback

Things aren’t terrible at quarterback, but there is uncertainty. Ryan Lindley was a train wreck down the stretch when he was forced into the starting lineup as a 3rd stringer. He probably won’t be in the NFL at all next season. Logan Thomas was a 4th round pick of the Cardinals in 2014, but it’s very concerning that he couldn’t make it on to the field over Lindley. Thomas completed just 1 of 8 NFL attempts last season and struggled in practice. The history of 4th round quarterbacks becoming starters isn’t great, so he’s hard to rely on as a long-term solution. Drew Stanton flashed at times, but ultimately proved to be the backup caliber quarterback we thought he was all along, completing 55.0% of his passes for an average of 7.13 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. Carson Palmer was easily the best of the bunch. The Cardinals moved the chains at a 73.58% rate when he started and a 67.03% rate when he didn’t. However, going into his age 36 season and two career ACL tears, he’s not a long-term solution and, with one of those ACL tears coming just back in November, he’s iffy for the short-term as well. It’ll be tough for them to find a long-term solution this off-season, but this is somewhere they could add.

Key Free Agents

CB Antonio Cromartie

Antonio Cromartie made 63 of 64 starts from 2009-2012 with the Jets and Chargers and graded out above average in all 4 seasons, maxing out at 18th in 2012. Cromartie started all 16 games for the Jets again in 2013, but graded out 102nd out of 110 eligible and ended up being a cap casualty. He was forced to settle for a 1-year, prove it deal with the Cardinals and the common opinion is that he did prove it and deserves a big contract this off-season. That’s only half true though as, while Cromartie was dominant to start the season, he was horrible in the 2nd half of the season and ended up grading out below average overall. Going into his age 31 season, Cromartie is simply no longer capable of consistently showing top cornerback ability and shouldn’t be paid more than an average starter. A strong candidate to be overpaid this off-season, it’s no secret that Cromartie would like to go back to the Jets and reunite with Todd Bowles. Bowles is now the Head Coach of the Jets after doing a fantastic job as defensive coordinator with the Cardinals in 2013 and 2014.

DT Dan Williams

Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps. On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season.

OLB John Abraham

John Abraham is the active all-time leader in sacks and a potential future Hall-of-Famer (he’d get my vote), after grading out as a top-4 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2007-2012 with the Falcons. Because of his size, he didn’t get signed until July 2013, when the Cardinals gave him a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal to play rush linebacker in their 3-4, a position he’d never played before. Abraham proved to be a tremendous steal in the first year of his contract, grading out 13th at his new position, but the same cannot be said about the second year of his contract, as he was limited to 37 snaps by a serious concussion. Now going into his age 37 season, he’ll be looking at one-year, incentive laden deals with minimal guaranteed money, assuming he wants to continue his career. He’s reportedly 50/50 to retire as of this writing.

DE Tommy Kelly

Tommy Kelly looked done after 2013. He was going into his age 34 season, off of a 2013 season in which he played just 5 games before tearing his ACL and a 2012 season in which he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 80th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible. He was released by the Patriots and Raiders respectively following those two seasons. However, the Cardinals gave him a chance on a cheap deal in late August after Darnell Dockett tore his ACL and it paid off as he turned back the clock in Arizona, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked 3-4 defensive end. Kelly heads into his 3rd straight free agency with a lot more leverage than his past 2 free agencies, even going into his age 35 season. Returning to the Cardinals on a cheap deal makes a lot of sense for both sides as Dockett is expected to be a cap casualty this off-season.

OLB Sam Acho

Sam Acho was a 4th round pick by the Cardinals in 2011. He made 26 starts in his first 2 seasons combined, but it was clear he was forced into starting action too quickly, as he graded out 25th out of 28 eligible in 2011 and 31st out of 34 eligible in 2012. In 2013, he played just 104 snaps in 3 games (2 starts) before going down for the season with a broken leg, but he bounced back to grade out above average in 2014 for the first time in his career, doing so on 483 snaps. Now he hits free agency and can make a decent amount of money as a reserve somewhere.

TE Rob Housler

Rob Housler came into the NFL with a lot of promise, drafted in the 3rd round in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Cardinals after running a 4.55 40 at 6-5 248. However, he never lived up to that potential, grading out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the NFL and averaging 418 snaps played per season, including just 327 snaps in his contract year in 2014. He never developed as a blocker and caught just 105 passes in 55 career games. I don’t expect him back in Arizona, as Bruce Arians prefers tight ends who can at least block. He’ll try to catch on somewhere as a reserve tight end.

G Paul Fanaika

Paul Fanaika, a 2009 7th round pick, was given a 1-year contract extension after his first NFL career start in week 1 of the 2013 season. That’s how much they liked him. He never lived up to their expectations though. He started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, but he wasn’t good, grading out 76th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 71st out of 78 eligible guards in 2014. The Cardinals may opt to bring him back if Bruce Arians still sees something in him, but they should look to do better than him in the starting lineup.

MLB Larry Foote

Larry Foote had a solid prime of his career as a linebacker in Pittsburgh and Detroit, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 4 seasons, including 56th out of 60 eligible in 2014. Going into his age 35 season, he appears to be at the end of the line. He’s already accepted a coaching job with the Cardinals and, even though the language of his coaching contract is flexible enough that he could get out of it to take a playing job, there’s a very good chance he’s played his last snaps.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Darnell Dockett

Darnell Dockett is going into his age 34 season coming off of a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem. Even in his prime, he was never that good, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. Owed 6.8 million dollars guaranteed this off-season on a team with cap issues, he’s a virtual lock to be let go. The Cardinals would save that whole amount on the cap by doing so.

WR Ted Ginn

Ginn has been a massive bust as the 9th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, but he’s managed to stay in the league 8 years because of what he does in the return game. He averages 11.09 yards per punt return and 22.93 yards per kickoff return with 7 total special teams touchdowns in his career. However, when the Cardinals signed him to the 3-year, 9.75 million dollar contract that they signed him to last off-season, they did so expecting him to contribute as a pass catcher. Ginn has never been much of a pass catcher, but graded out above average as a pass catcher the first time in 2013. The Cardinals were mistaken to think that though as Ginn fell behind 3rd round rookie John Brown on the depth chart to start the season and ended up catching just 14 passes for 190 yards. Going into his age 30 season with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown all locked in ahead of him, Ginn isn’t worth his 3.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2015 and the Cardinals can save 2.5 million by releasing him.

C Lyle Sendlein

Lyle Sendlein was horrible last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 40th ranked center out of 41 eligible. He’s been a solid veteran for them for years and he’s definitely had better days, but he’s now going into his age 31 season. The Cardinals can save 3.15 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season and they could find a cheaper, better starter in free agency.

G Ted Larsen

Like Sendlein, Larsen struggled as a starter last season, grading out 68th out of 78 eligible guards. Teams don’t usually cut starters unless they have massive salaries, even if they were ineffective, but the Cardinals can save 2.2 million on the cap and in cash by letting Larsen go, money they could use on an upgrade. Larsen isn’t worth starting caliber money.

TE John Carlson

John Carlson was a disaster in his first season as the starting tight end in Arizona, grading out 65th out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus. He caught just 33 passes for 350 yards and 1 touchdown on 49 targets (67.3%) and 384 routes run (0.91 yards per route run). He also struggled as a blocker, grading out 65th in that aspect, which is something that had to disappoint Bruce Arians, who loves tight ends who can block. The Cardinals can save 1.6 million on the cap and cash by letting him go this off-season and they have 2014 2nd round pick Troy Niklas ready for a bigger role in 2015.

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Cleveland Browns sign QB Josh McCown

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

The average annual salary on this deal isn’t terrible as it’s a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with incentives that could make it worth up to 20 million. The issue is that McCown will get 6.25 million guaranteed, including a fully guaranteed 5.25 million dollar base salary for 2015. That first year’s guaranteed base salary is more than any quarterback got on the open market last off-season as the likes of Michael Vick, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel etc all got 5 million dollars or less in guaranteed first year money last off-season.

That batch of quarterbacks includes Josh McCown, who, last off-season, parlayed a strong extended stretch as the Bears’ starting quarterback in the absence of Jay Cutler into a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Buccaneers that paid him 4.75 million guaranteed in his first year. If McCown was only worth that then, after a 2013 season in which he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception, how he is worth more now, after a disastrous 2014 season, especially since he’s now another year older, going into his age 36 season.

In 2014, McCown won just 1 of 11 starts, completing 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The Buccaneers moved the chains at a mere 63.46% rate in the 10 games McCown started and finished and it wasn’t like McCown didn’t have talent around him. The Buccaneers’ offensive supporting cast was far from perfect, but Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were one of four wide receiver duos to both have 1000+ yard seasons in 2014. The Browns don’t have anyone as good as either one of those two in their receiving corps. Overall, McCown graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible in 2014.

McCown’s 2013 was obviously better, but he’ll be two years removed from that in 2015, which is even more of a concern as he goes into his later 30s. Besides, that season was the clear outlier as, prior to that, the last season he had a quarterback rating higher than 70 was 2006. In his career, McCown completes 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 61 touchdowns, and 59 interceptions. I know the quarterback market is very weak this off-season, but that doesn’t mean that you should give a backup caliber player like McCown this kind of guaranteed money. They could have gotten someone like Colt McCoy or Jake Locker for half this price and at least they have enough youth to have upside. The Browns better hope Johnny Manziel can get it together this off-season otherwise they’re going to have a very tough time moving the ball in 2015.

Grade: D

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Detroit Lions 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive Tackle

Defensive tackle has been a strength for the Lions for years, but all three of their top defensive tackles, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley, are free agents this off-season. Mosley is the most likely to re-sign and will be the cheapest, but he’s going into his age 32 season. The Lions will find it borderline impossible to bring back all 3 of them and they’ll also have trouble bringing back even two of them. Defensive tackle help is needed this off-season and the Lions could turn to the early rounds of the draft to fill this need.

Cornerback

Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay were a great cornerback duo in 2014 for the Lions, grading out 12th and 19th among cornerbacks respectively on Pro Football Focus. However, Mathis is a free agent going into his age 35 season and they really lack depth at the position. Bill Bentley was drafted in the 3rd round in 2012, but he hasn’t delivered yet, grading out below average in both 2012 and 2013 and then missing all but 3 snaps with a torn ACL in 2014. They need to add another cornerback to the mix, especially if Mathis isn’t brought back on a short-term deal as a stopgap.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each broke the 1000 yard barrier last season, one of just 4 wide receiver duos to do so (Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, and Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson were the other 3). However, they were the only two Lion wide receivers to play a snap and grade out above average in 2014, which becomes a serious problem if Johnson or Tate ever get hurt, as Johnson did for a period of time in 2014. Depth needs to be added.

Defensive End

Jason Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 47th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible last season and the Lions could cut him, to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space. Even if he returns, it could be as a defensive tackle. George Johnson was solid as a 3rd defensive end last season and could be a candidate to replace Jones as a starter. Johnson played 502 snaps last season, grading out slightly above average, but he’s still unproven, after playing 156 snaps in his first 4 seasons combined. They could add to this position this off-season.

Guard

Rob Sims is a free agent going into his age 32 season. He’s aging, but he still showed the ability to be a capable starter in 2014, so they should try to bring him back. That being said, if they’re unable to, they’ll need to replace him, as they don’t really have a good internal replacement.

Center

Dominic Raiola seems to be at the end of his line, a free agent going into his age 37 season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37th ranked center out of 41 eligible in 2014. The Lions drafted Travis Swanson in the 3rd round in 2014 to be a long-term solution, but he struggled as a rookie, primarily at right guard. He only played 277 snaps, so he wasn’t eligible for Pro Football Focus’ rankings, but no one played fewer snaps at guard and graded out worse.

Key Free Agents

DT Ndamukong Suh

Ndamukong Suh has a good chance to be the best free agent on the open market this off-season. Guys like Justin Houston, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas can all make arguments that they’re the best player with an expiring contract this off-season, but all 3 of those players figure to get franchise tagged. Because of franchise tag rules and Suh’s massive cap number in the contract year of his rookie deal in 2014, franchising Suh would cost the Lions 26.7 million, so that’s not really an option. The Lions could still sign Suh before free agency hits, but more than likely he’s going to want to test the market, in search of the richest deal that a defensive player has ever signed. He wants a deal bigger than the 6-year, 100 million dollar extension JJ Watt got last off-season. Suh isn’t quite Watt, but some team could still be willing to give him that. Suh joins Gerald McCoy (who got a 7-year, 98 million dollar extension last off-season) as the only defensive tackle to grade out in the top-4 among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons.

DT Nick Fairley

Nick Fairley is a frustrating player. He went 13th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but, 4 years into his career, it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season. That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps, but now he heads into free agency still an enigma. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, discipline problems that won’t get better if he gets a ton of money, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 6-7 million annually.

G Rob Sims

Rob Sims is an ironman who has made all 80 starts over the past 5 seasons since arriving in Detroit, but he’s going into his age 32 season and graded out below average last season for the first time since 2008, back when he was a reserve with the Seahawks. He still played pretty well last year, grading out slightly below average, but he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 37th and 40th ranked guard in 2013 and 2014 respectively, so the days of him grading out in the top-13 at his position, like he did in 2011 and 2012, and being one of the better guards in the NFL are gone. Still, he’s a starting caliber guard who won’t break the bank, so he’ll draw plenty of interest. I don’t expect him to get much guaranteed money past 2015 though.

CB Rashean Mathis

Rashean Mathis looked done after 2012, as he graded out below average in 2012, missed 11 games with injury in 2011 and 2012 combined, and was going into his age 33 season. He didn’t get signed until mid-August in 2013, but he turned back the clock in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts and grading out 26th in 2013 and 12th in 2014. He’s a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season so he won’t command a large salary, but the Lions would love to bring him back as a stopgap in their secondary and he should draw interest from other cornerback needy teams as well.

DT CJ Mosley

CJ Mosley has been the 3rd defensive tackle for the Lions over the past 2 seasons, but he’s made 9 starts, played 836 snaps, and graded out above average in both seasons so he’s been very important to the Lions. When you take into account that he graded out above average in 2011 and 2012, this is one of the best reserve defensive linemen in the NFL. He’s going into his age 32 season so he won’t get a ton of money on the open market, but he should get paid like a low-end starter. If the Lions are unable to bring back Suh and Fairley, Mosley could easily be a starter in Detroit next season.

C Dominic Raiola

Dominic Raiola has been with the Lions since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2014, making 203 starts over that time period, but he appears to be at the end of the line and is expected to retire this off-season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37th ranked center out of 41 eligible last season. If he does decide to play another season, what would be his age 37 season, it probably won’t be in Detroit, as they appear ready to move forward with 2014 3rd round pick Travis Swanson at center in 2015. He might not draw any interest at all on the open market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Reggie Bush

Bush never really became the otherworldly talent that the NFL was expecting him to be, after the Saints drafted the former Heisman winner 2nd overall in 2006, but after an injury plagued tenure in New Orleans that saw him max out at 157 carries, Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He also missed 5 games with injury and Theo Riddick did a solid job as the complementary back in his absence. The Lions could cut Bush to save 3.5 million in cash and 1.72 million on the cap and move forward with the significantly cheaper Riddick behind Bell.

DE Jason Jones

Jason Jones was signed to a 3-year, 9.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago by the Lions, but he was limited to 87 snaps in 2013 by a torn patellar tendon and then graded out 47th out of 59 eligible this season as a starter. The Lions could cut him to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space, but he’s only going into his age 29 season and he’s had more career success at defensive tackle than defensive end so the Lions could bring him back and move him inside. As a defensive tackle, the 6-3 274 pounder has graded out above average on limited snaps inside in both 2009 and 2012 and graded out 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a starter in 2010.

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Ike Taylor is done, as a free agent going into his age 35 season, after struggling in 2013 (98th out of 110 eligible cornerbacks) and missing 11 games with injury in 2014. They gave Cortez Allen a long-term contract in the off-season, but he struggled mightily before being benched and could be cut after just one year, a move that would save them 1.58 million on the 2015 cap. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd cornerback out of 108 eligible. William Gay was fine, but journeymen Brice McCain and Antwon Blake were a mixed bag. I expect they’re going to target cornerbacks early in 2015.

Outside Linebacker

Jarvis Jones was a first round pick of the Steelers’ in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, doing so on 646 snaps as a rookie and 237 snaps last year, when he missed 9 games (he also missed 2 games as a rookie). He’s still part of their long-term plans at outside linebacker, but he’s tough to count on and they need other players at the position as Jason Worilds and James Harrison are both free agents this off-season. The latter is going into his age 37 season.

Defensive End

Cameron Heyward was fantastic for the Steelers again last season, but they need help around him at the position. Stephon Tuitt and Cam Thomas were among the worst players at their position last season, grading out 40th and 47th respectively out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. Brett Keisel was better, but he’s going into his age 37 season. Tuitt was a 2nd round rookie last year so he could be better in 2015 and he remains a big part of their future, but they need to add another young guy at the position.

Safety

Michael Mitchell was signed to a 5 year, 25 million dollar contract last off-season and did a decent job in his first season in Pittsburgh. However, there’s uncertainty about who the long-term solution is next to him. Troy Polamalu is going into his age 34 season and the Steelers can save 6 million in cash and 3.75 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season. He could also outright retire. Polamalu is still a capable player, grading out above average last season for the 8th straight season, but he’s expensive, aging, declining (last season he ranked 48th out of safeties, worst since 2009 when he played just 5 games), and has missed 24 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He probably doesn’t have a lot of time left as a starter in Pittsburgh. Shamarko Thomas was drafted in the 4th round in 2013 as a potential successor, but he’s played just 195 snaps in 2 seasons, as he’s been unable to move ahead of Will Allen on the depth chart. Allen is going into his age 33 season. More youth needs to be added into the mix.

Running Back

The Steelers lost in the first round of the playoffs at home to the Ravens by a score of 30-17. The Ravens were a tough opponent and it’s possible they would have lost anyway, but it definitely hurt their chances of winning significantly when Le’Veon Bell got hurt towards the end of their week 17 win over the Bengals. That’s partially because Bell is so good (Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall running back last season), but it’s also partially because they have no depth behind him. The Steelers needed to sign Ben Tate the week before that game out of desperation. Tate actually got the first carry for the Steelers and his 7 touches were 2nd by a Steeler running back in that game behind Josh Harris’ 11. Tate isn’t a long-term solution and neither Josh Harris nor Dri Archer seem like the type of player who can be counted on to carry the load if Bell misses time. Harris was an undrafted free agent and had just 18 carries as a rookie, rushing for just 41 yards. Archer had even fewer carries as a rookie, carrying the ball 11 times for 39 yards. The 2014 3rd round pick might have a future role as a scatback, but the 5-8 173 pounder can’t carry much of a load. This is especially a concern considering Le’Veon Bell is facing a two game suspension to start 2015 for marijuana possession.

Key Free Agents

OLB Jason Worilds

Jason Worilds was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013, but he was a bit of a one year wonder so the Steelers used the transition tag on him, rather than giving him a long-term deal. Prior to 2013, the 2010 2nd round pick played a combined 979 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league, maxing out at 501 in 2011. However, he graded out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons and he shed the one-year wonder label in 2014 in his 2nd full season as a starter, grading out 11th at his position. He heads into free agency off of back-to-back top-12 seasons as a 3-4 outside linebacker, having made 31 of 32 starts over those 2 seasons. He made 9.75 million for 1 year on the transition tag last year and figures to get paid well on the open market this off-season. The cap strapped Steelers will have a tough time keeping him.

OLB James Harrison

James Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better. He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season. Scheme versatile, he’ll draw interest on cheap, one-year deals this off-season, assuming he still wants to play.

CB Brice McCain

Brice McCain was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked cornerback in 2011 and looked like a potential future star, but that was the only season of his 6 year career that he’s graded out above average. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible in 2012 and dead last ranked in 2013. He played 615 snaps for the Steelers out of necessity, despite not playing a snap in weeks 1-3, but he wasn’t that good. He’ll be looking at deals near the minimum this off-season.

RB Ben Tate

Ben Tate was a 2nd round pick in 2010 by the Texans and he’s shown talent, but injuries have been a serious issue for him. As a rookie, he broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury. Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.26 yards per carry on 181 carries. He signed a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with the Browns last off-season, but he lasted just 8 games with Cleveland, missing 3 with injuries, being limited to 3.14 YPC when on the field, and getting cut mid-season. The Vikings gave him a chance, but he had just 38 yards on 13 carries in Minnesota and was eventually let go there too. The Steelers signed him out of desperation for the playoffs, but he had just 28 yards on 7 touches. Tate could be on his 5th team in about 18 months if he’s signed elsewhere this off-season. He’ll be looking at one-year prove it deals near the minimum.

CB Ike Taylor

Ike Taylor has had a solid career and was Pro Football Focus’ 40th cornerback ranked as recently as 2012, but he missed 5 games down the stretch that season with a broken arm, graded out 98th out of 110 eligible in 2013, and then missed another 11 games this year with arm problems. Going into his age 35 season, there’s a good chance that Taylor’s career is done. He might either retire this off-season or go unsigned in free agency.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Cortez Allen

Cortez Allen was a 4th round pick by the Steelers in 2011. He barely played as a rookie, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked cornerback on 563 snaps in 2012 and their 37th ranked cornerback on 718 snaps in 2013. He was given a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season, but he was horrible in the first season of that extension. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible, got benched after week 7, played 42 defensive snaps the rest of the way, and ended the season on IR. The Steelers can save 5.631 million in cash and 1.581 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

WR Lance Moore

Lance Moore was a 1000 yard receiver in 2012 with the Saints, but that was over two years ago, that was the only 1000+ yard season of his career, he’s missed 17 games over the past 6 seasons combined, he’s going into his age 32 season, and he’s combined for 51 catches for 665 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. If he returns to the Steelers, he’ll be their 4th receiver at best behind Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers can save 1.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go and he’s basically asked for his release so I expect him to be let go this off-season.

DE Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas was decent in limited action in 2011 and 2012 with the Chargers, grading out above average on 395 snaps in 2011 and 404 snaps in 2012, while showing the versatility to play 3-4 defensive end and nose tackle. However, he struggled in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 51st ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible and he struggled even more in 2014 in his first season with the Steelers, grading out dead last among 3-4 defensive ends. The Steelers can save 2 million in cash and cap space by letting him go.

S Troy Polamalu

Troy Polamalu has graded out above average in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s going into his age 34 season and coming off of a season where he ranked 48th among safeties, worst since 2009 when he played just 5 games. He’s also missed 24 games in the last 6 seasons combined. He’s still a capable player and he’s a future Hall of Famer and I ultimately expect him back in Pittsburgh, but the cap strapped Steelers can cut him to save 6 million in cash and 3.75 million in cap space immediately so they’ll consider it.

DE Brett Keisel

Brett Keisel is one of the oldest players in the NFL, going into his age 37 season. He was decent on 451 snaps last season, but the end is near for him, especially coming off of a season ending triceps tear. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, missing 8 games over that period of time. If he returns in 2015, it’ll be as a reserve and the Steelers may opt to cut him to save 1.5 million in cash and cap space and bring him back on a minimum deal or let him leave outright.

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