Dallas Cowboys re-sign WR Cole Beasley

March 3, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Cole Beasley is an ascending slot receiver who has seen his snaps go up in every season since he went undrafted in 2012, playing 128 snaps in 2012, 247 snaps in 2013, and 443 snaps in 2014, grading out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2014, he caught 37 passes for 420 yards and 4 touchdowns on 48 targets (77.1%) and 308 routes run (1.36 yards per route run). The Cowboys could have kept him in the 2 million dollar range for 2015 as a restricted free agent on a 2^nd round tender, but instead decided to commit to him long-term with this 4-year, 13.6 million dollar deal that will guarantee him 7 million over the first 2 seasons. It’s a gamble because he’s still relatively unproven, but it could pay off as he could have gotten a deal similar to the one Doug Baldwin got last off-season (3 years, 13 million with 8.5 million guaranteed) on the open market next off-season if he had another solid season.

Grade: B-

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Buffalo Bills trade MLB Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia Eagles for RB LeSean McCoy

March 3, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Eagles, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: I’m probably going against the grain with this, but I love this deal. People are wondering who will replace McCoy. Well, it’s a deep running back draft and a deep running back free agency class. It’s going to be tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2013 production, when he rushed for 1607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 314 carries (5.12 YPC) and added 52 catches for 539 yards and another two touchdowns. It’s not going to be that tough to find someone to replace McCoy’s 2014 production, when he rushed for 1319 yards and 5 touchdowns on 312 carries (4.23 YPC) and added just 28 catches for 155 yards.

McCoy could bounce back in 2015, but there’s evidence to suggest he won’t. He’s only graded out higher than 10^th among running backs on Pro Football Focus once in 6 years in the league (2013) and he’s going into his age 27 season with 1761 touches at a position that doesn’t have a long lifespan. He’s a good, not great running back in a league where running backs rarely get the kind of money McCoy is still owed over the next 3 seasons (24.25 million).

Kiko Alonso, meanwhile, is owed just 1.7 million over the next 2 seasons on his rookie deal. Like McCoy, he had a strong 2013 that he didn’t replicate in 2014. Alonso graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked middle linebacker in 2013, but missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL. However, I like his chances of bouncing back more than McCoy because he’s only going into his age 25 season at a position with a much longer lifespan. A torn ACL is hard to recover from, but Alonso suffered that injury back in June of 2014 and has youth on his side.

He’ll be an obvious upgrade over DeMeco Ryans, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 53^rd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013, before missing 8 games with a torn Achilles in 2014. He and Mychal Kendricks will be a strong, young middle linebacker duo for the Eagles inside. The Eagles also will save 6.9 million on the cap by letting Ryans go. Between that and the 8.55 million they saved from trading McCoy, this move saves them about 15 million on the cap (Alonso’s cap number for the Eagles will be about 750K this season). That’s a significant amount for a team that figures to be major players in free agency. This move could allow them to add someone like Devin McCourty to their secondary and have cap room left over.

Grade: A

Trade for Bills: I don’t hate this deal for the Bills as much as I love it for the Eagles. The reason for that is that Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham both broke out as every down linebackers for the Bills in 2014 in Alonso’s absence and they could still re-sign Brandon Spikes, a solid two-down run stopper. However, you still don’t trade a younger, cheaper player for an older, more expensive player, at a position with a shorter careerspan. I would have liked to see the Bills pick up some sort of draft pick in this deal. I’m not sure McCoy would have gotten 24.25 million over 3 years on the open market if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving up that and a talented young linebacker for him. It’s not a good deal.

Grade: D

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Carolina Panthers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

March 3, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Offensive Tackle

Byron Bell was arguably the weakest starting left tackle in the NFL going into the season and he played about as expected, grading out 85^th out of 86 eligible offensive tackles. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Panthers desperately need to find an upgrade. On the right side, Nate Chandler was also a disaster, grading out 68^th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles in 11 games before going down for the season with an injury. Even if Mike Remmers, a 2014 undrafted free agent who played well at right tackle down the stretch in Chandler’s absence, is the solution on the right side, they still need help on the left side and they could easily need to add two offensive tackles.

Wide Receiver

The Panthers were one of five teams with two 1000+ yard receivers (Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans, Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders). However, that was largely because they didn’t have any receiving options after Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. Those two received 49.25% of the Panthers targets, the highest percentage by any two teammates. Olsen is a tight end anyway. They desperately need wide receiver help after Benjamin on the depth chart. The Panthers’ next three wide receivers (Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and Philly Brown) combined for just 4 more targets than Benjamin. Cotchery is going into his age 33 season, Avant was cut mid-season, Brown is just a slot receiver that went undrafted in 2014, and all 3 of them graded out below average in pass catching grade.

Cornerback

Antoine Cason led Panther cornerbacks in snaps played last season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 97^th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible last season and was cut before the end of the season. Josh Norman, Melvin White, and Bene Benwikere were next in snaps played. Norman and Benwikere both graded out above average, but Norman graded out below average as a 5^th round rookie in 2012 and then again in 2013, while Benwikere was a mere 5^th round rookie this season, so both of them are hard to trust into 2015. White, meanwhile, graded out 94^th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014. He’s graded out below average in both seasons since he went undrafted in 2013. They could add this off-season.

Safety

Roman Harper and Thomas DeCoud were signed as reclamation projects last off-season for the Panthers. DeCoud graded out below average in 2012 and 2013, including 82nd out of 86 eligible in 2013. Harper, meanwhile, graded out below average in 2011, 2012, and 2013, including 86th out of 88 eligible in 2012. Harper was decent in 2014, but he’s going into his age 33 season, while DeCoud once again graded out below average. Reserve Tre Boston was decent, but he was an inexperienced 4^th round rookie, so they could still add at the position this off-season.

Defensive End

The Panthers have already said they won’t be re-signing Greg Hardy, after suspending him for 15 games as a result of off-the-field issues. They didn’t fare well opposite Charles Johnson in his absence last season as Wes Horton, Mario Addison, and Kony Ealy graded out 49^th, 39^th, and 56^th respectively out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Kony Ealy was a 2^nd round pick in 2014, so he could be better in 2015 and he’s still a big part of their future plans, but they need to add to the position.

Tight End

Wide receiver isn’t the only place where the Panthers have depth problems in the receiving corps. Ed Dickson was predictably horrible as their #2 tight end last season, grading out 60^th out of 67 eligible. He was Pro Football Focus’ 63^rd ranked tight end out of 64 eligible in 2013 with Baltimore before the Panthers signed him so that shouldn’t have been a surprise and they shouldn’t bring him back as a free agent. Adding a 2^nd tight end would help this offense.

Key Free Agents

DE Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy had such a bright future at this time last year, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013 and their 6^th ranked in 2012. The Panthers, eager to keep him long-term, franchised tagged Hardy last off-season, guaranteeing him 13.1 million for 2015, but they would end up regretting that. Hardy was arrested for and convicted of domestic violence in the off-season. He was allowed by the NFL to play for the Panthers week 1 because he was appealing the verdict, but public pressure forced the Panthers inactivate Hardy for the final 15 games of the season, meaning the Panthers got just 1 game for that 13.1 million. Hardy is still young (going into his age 27 season), still talented, and got the charges dropped this off-season, but he could be rusty, he got the charges dropped on a technicality, he’s still facing a suspension from the NFL, and he remains an off-the-field risk long-term. The Panthers have already said they’re moving on from him. It’ll be interesting to see what his market is this off-season. If he’s smart, he’ll take a one-year deal, bet on himself, stay clean and make a boatload of money next off-season.

G Fernando Velasco

Fernando Velasco was the Titans’ 11^th ranked center in 2012, but the Titans still made him a final cut the following off-season. It was a curious move at the time, but now it makes a little bit more sense. That 2012 season is very uncharacteristic when you look at his whole career. The only other season he’s graded out above average since entering the league in 2008 was 2011, when he played just 28 snaps. Since being released by the Titans, he graded out below average on 758 snaps at center in 2013 in Pittsburgh in place of an injured Maurkice Pouncey and below average on 407 snaps at guard in 2014 with the Panthers. He’s a reserve interior offensive lineman.

DT Dwan Edwards

Dwan Edwards has graded out below average in each of the last 5 seasons, averaging 595 snaps per season over that time period. In 2014, he graded out 63^rd out of 81 eligible defensive tackles on 591 snaps. Going into his age 34 season, things aren’t going to get better. He won’t draw a big market this off-season and might end up retiring. If he plays next year, he’ll probably be signed late in the off-season and have a small role.

TE Ed Dickson

Ed Dickson has graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL (4 with the Ravens and the last one with the Panthers) since the Ravens drafted him in the 3^rd round in 2010, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s been especially bad in each of the past 2 seasons, grading out 63^rd out of 64 eligible tight end in 2013 and 60^th out of 67 eligible in 2014. He’s a fringe roster player.

OT Byron Bell

Byron Bell is experienced, with 56 starts in 4 seasons since the Panthers signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2011, but he’s not very good. He was horrible to start his career at right tackle, grading out 69^th out of 76 eligible in 2011, 61^st out of 80 eligible in 2012, and 53^rd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Predictably, he wasn’t better in 2014 when forced to play the blindside, grading out 83^rd out of 84 eligible. He’s a swing tackle at best and not a very good one. The Panthers have already said they aren’t going to be bringing him back in any capacity

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB DeAngelo Williams

The Panthers signed DeAngelo Williams to a massive 5-year, 43 million dollar deal in the 2011 off-season and, even after a restructured contract with a severe pay cut given to him two off-seasons ago, the Panthers are only now at the point where they can release Williams as a post-June cut and save on the cap. They’ll only save 2 million on the cap by doing that and they won’t even have him completely off their cap until 2017, but they’ll save 2 million in cash and Williams is going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he missed 10 games with injury and averaged just 3.53 yards per carry. Jonathan Stewart is much younger and played way better last season.

FB Mike Tolbert

Mike Tolbert has had some good years, but he’s coming off of a season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked fullback out of 23eligible. He could bounce back in 2015, but he’s going into his age 30 season and his 2.45 million dollar salary is a lot for a fullback who isn’t one of the best in the NFL so he might not even be worth his salary even if he does bounce back. The Panthers can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

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Arizona Cardinals 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

March 2, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Outside Linebacker

With John Abraham playing just 37 snaps thanks to a serious concussion, the Cardinals really struggled to rush the passer this season, particularly from the outside linebacker position. Alex Okafor led the position in snaps played, but graded out 45^th out of 46 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers. Sam Acho was better, but he only played 483 snaps and now is a free agent. Help is needed at the position this off-season. Matt Shaughnessy should be healthier in 2015 after missing 8 games with injury in 2014, but he’s only a marginal player at best.

Guard

The Cardinals’ guard play was horrendous last season. Starters Paul Fanaika and Ted Larsen graded out 71^st and 68^th out of 78 eligible guards respectively last season. Fanaika is a free agent, while Larsen could be a cap casualty or benched this off-season. The Cardinals drafted Jonathan Cooper 7^th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft, making him the highest drafted true guard in over two decades, and he’s been a massive bust thus far, struggling with injuries and performance, playing just 189 snaps in 2 seasons combined in the NFL. It’s possible he morphs into a starter in 2015, but the Cardinals still need to add more talent at this position this off-season.

Middle Linebacker

Larry Foote led Cardinal middle linebackers in snaps played last season, but he was horrible, grading out 56^th out of 60 eligible players. A free agent going into his age 35 season, Foote is likely done in the NFL and is expected to take a coaching job with the Cardinals. Kevin Minter, a 2013 2^nd round pick, did a decent job in the two-down role next to Washington, with a 3^rd safety usually playing around the line of scrimmage as a 2^nd linebacker in sub packages. Daryl Washington is a talented middle linebacker when on the field and more than capable of playing the three-down role, but he missed the entire 2014 season with suspension and might not be reinstated for the start of the 2015 season. His checkered off-the-field history makes him a shaky bet moving forward. The Cardinals should add here at some point this off-season.

Running Back

The Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per carry last season, averaging 3.29 yards per carry. That was largely a result of Andre Ellington averaging 3.28 yards per carry on 201 carries as the lead back, as he struggled through a variety of injuries, before eventually getting shut down for the season late in the season. Ellington averaged 5.53 yards per carry in 2013 as a 6^th round rookie, but that was on just 118 carries and, considering his injury history dates back to his days at Clemson, there’s a good chance that the 5-9 199 pound back isn’t capable of staying healthy over 250-300 carries. The Cardinals seem confident going into 2015 with him as the starter, but they need to upgrade their depth behind him, given how unreliable he is. The trio of Kerwynn Williams, Stepfan Taylor, Marion Grice averaged 3.78 yards per carry last season and has essentially no proven NFL success.

Cornerback

Antonio Cromartie did a solid job, making 16 starts for the Cardinals last season and playing pretty well, but he’s a free agent this off-season. Everything sounds like he’s New York bound to re-join the Jets and former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Jerraud Powers was their 3^rd cornerback last season. He has experience as a starter and he’s done a solid job in the past when counted on in that role, including 2013 with the Cardinals, but the Cardinals will need to replenish depth, assuming Cromartie does, in fact, leave.

Center

Lyle Sendlein was horrible last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 40^th ranked center out of 41 eligible. He’s been a solid veteran for them for years and he’s definitely had better days, but he’s now going into his age 31 season. The Cardinals can save 3.15 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season and they could find a cheaper, better starter in free agency.

Defensive Tackle

Dan Williams is a free agent this off-season. He’s been their starting nose tackles essentially for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 1^st round in 2010, making 40 starts over that time period, including 9 last season. The Cardinals will have to replace him if they’re unable to retain him this off-season as they don’t have a clear successor on the roster.

Quarterback

Things aren’t terrible at quarterback, but there is uncertainty. Ryan Lindley was a train wreck down the stretch when he was forced into the starting lineup as a 3^rd stringer. He probably won’t be in the NFL at all next season. Logan Thomas was a 4^th round pick of the Cardinals in 2014, but it’s very concerning that he couldn’t make it on to the field over Lindley. Thomas completed just 1 of 8 NFL attempts last season and struggled in practice. The history of 4^th round quarterbacks becoming starters isn’t great, so he’s hard to rely on as a long-term solution. Drew Stanton flashed at times, but ultimately proved to be the backup caliber quarterback we thought he was all along, completing 55.0% of his passes for an average of 7.13 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31^st ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. Carson Palmer was easily the best of the bunch. The Cardinals moved the chains at a 73.58% rate when he started and a 67.03% rate when he didn’t. However, going into his age 36 season and two career ACL tears, he’s not a long-term solution and, with one of those ACL tears coming just back in November, he’s iffy for the short-term as well. It’ll be tough for them to find a long-term solution this off-season, but this is somewhere they could add.

Key Free Agents

CB Antonio Cromartie

Antonio Cromartie made 63 of 64 starts from 2009-2012 with the Jets and Chargers and graded out above average in all 4 seasons, maxing out at 18^th in 2012. Cromartie started all 16 games for the Jets again in 2013, but graded out 102^nd out of 110 eligible and ended up being a cap casualty. He was forced to settle for a 1-year, prove it deal with the Cardinals and the common opinion is that he did prove it and deserves a big contract this off-season. That’s only half true though as, while Cromartie was dominant to start the season, he was horrible in the 2^nd half of the season and ended up grading out below average overall. Going into his age 31 season, Cromartie is simply no longer capable of consistently showing top cornerback ability and shouldn’t be paid more than an average starter. A strong candidate to be overpaid this off-season, it’s no secret that Cromartie would like to go back to the Jets and reunite with Todd Bowles. Bowles is now the Head Coach of the Jets after doing a fantastic job as defensive coordinator with the Cardinals in 2013 and 2014.

DT Dan Williams

Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps. On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season.

OLB John Abraham

John Abraham is the active all-time leader in sacks and a potential future Hall-of-Famer (he’d get my vote), after grading out as a top-4 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2007-2012 with the Falcons. Because of his size, he didn’t get signed until July 2013, when the Cardinals gave him a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal to play rush linebacker in their 3-4, a position he’d never played before. Abraham proved to be a tremendous steal in the first year of his contract, grading out 13^th at his new position, but the same cannot be said about the second year of his contract, as he was limited to 37 snaps by a serious concussion. Now going into his age 37 season, he’ll be looking at one-year, incentive laden deals with minimal guaranteed money, assuming he wants to continue his career. He’s reportedly 50/50 to retire as of this writing.

DE Tommy Kelly

Tommy Kelly looked done after 2013. He was going into his age 34 season, off of a 2013 season in which he played just 5 games before tearing his ACL and a 2012 season in which he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 80^th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible. He was released by the Patriots and Raiders respectively following those two seasons. However, the Cardinals gave him a chance on a cheap deal in late August after Darnell Dockett tore his ACL and it paid off as he turned back the clock in Arizona, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th ranked 3-4 defensive end. Kelly heads into his 3^rd straight free agency with a lot more leverage than his past 2 free agencies, even going into his age 35 season. Returning to the Cardinals on a cheap deal makes a lot of sense for both sides as Dockett is expected to be a cap casualty this off-season.

OLB Sam Acho

Sam Acho was a 4^th round pick by the Cardinals in 2011. He made 26 starts in his first 2 seasons combined, but it was clear he was forced into starting action too quickly, as he graded out 25^th out of 28 eligible in 2011 and 31^st out of 34 eligible in 2012. In 2013, he played just 104 snaps in 3 games (2 starts) before going down for the season with a broken leg, but he bounced back to grade out above average in 2014 for the first time in his career, doing so on 483 snaps. Now he hits free agency and can make a decent amount of money as a reserve somewhere.

TE Rob Housler

Rob Housler came into the NFL with a lot of promise, drafted in the 3^rd round in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Cardinals after running a 4.55 40 at 6-5 248. However, he never lived up to that potential, grading out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the NFL and averaging 418 snaps played per season, including just 327 snaps in his contract year in 2014. He never developed as a blocker and caught just 105 passes in 55 career games. I don’t expect him back in Arizona, as Bruce Arians prefers tight ends who can at least block. He’ll try to catch on somewhere as a reserve tight end.

G Paul Fanaika

Paul Fanaika, a 2009 7^th round pick, was given a 1-year contract extension after his first NFL career start in week 1 of the 2013 season. That’s how much they liked him. He never lived up to their expectations though. He started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, but he wasn’t good, grading out 76^th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 71^st out of 78 eligible guards in 2014. The Cardinals may opt to bring him back if Bruce Arians still sees something in him, but they should look to do better than him in the starting lineup.

MLB Larry Foote

Larry Foote had a solid prime of his career as a linebacker in Pittsburgh and Detroit, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 4 seasons, including 56^th out of 60 eligible in 2014. Going into his age 35 season, he appears to be at the end of the line. He’s already accepted a coaching job with the Cardinals and, even though the language of his coaching contract is flexible enough that he could get out of it to take a playing job, there’s a very good chance he’s played his last snaps.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Darnell Dockett

Darnell Dockett is going into his age 34 season coming off of a torn ACL, but that’s not the only problem. Even in his prime, he was never that good, particularly struggling mightily against the run. From 2007-2013, he graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons, including 26th out of 28 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2008, 31st out of 39 eligible in 2009, 34th of out 42 eligible in 2010, and dead last among eligible in 2012. Owed 6.8 million dollars guaranteed this off-season on a team with cap issues, he’s a virtual lock to be let go. The Cardinals would save that whole amount on the cap by doing so.

WR Ted Ginn

Ginn has been a massive bust as the 9^th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, but he’s managed to stay in the league 8 years because of what he does in the return game. He averages 11.09 yards per punt return and 22.93 yards per kickoff return with 7 total special teams touchdowns in his career. However, when the Cardinals signed him to the 3-year, 9.75 million dollar contract that they signed him to last off-season, they did so expecting him to contribute as a pass catcher. Ginn has never been much of a pass catcher, but graded out above average as a pass catcher the first time in 2013. The Cardinals were mistaken to think that though as Ginn fell behind 3^rd round rookie John Brown on the depth chart to start the season and ended up catching just 14 passes for 190 yards. Going into his age 30 season with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown all locked in ahead of him, Ginn isn’t worth his 3.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2015 and the Cardinals can save 2.5 million by releasing him.

C Lyle Sendlein

G Ted Larsen

Like Sendlein, Larsen struggled as a starter last season, grading out 68^th out of 78 eligible guards. Teams don’t usually cut starters unless they have massive salaries, even if they were ineffective, but the Cardinals can save 2.2 million on the cap and in cash by letting Larsen go, money they could use on an upgrade. Larsen isn’t worth starting caliber money.

TE John Carlson

John Carlson was a disaster in his first season as the starting tight end in Arizona, grading out 65^th out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus. He caught just 33 passes for 350 yards and 1 touchdown on 49 targets (67.3%) and 384 routes run (0.91 yards per route run). He also struggled as a blocker, grading out 65^th in that aspect, which is something that had to disappoint Bruce Arians, who loves tight ends who can block. The Cardinals can save 1.6 million on the cap and cash by letting him go this off-season and they have 2014 2^nd round pick Troy Niklas ready for a bigger role in 2015.

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Cleveland Browns sign QB Josh McCown

March 2, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

The average annual salary on this deal isn’t terrible as it’s a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with incentives that could make it worth up to 20 million. The issue is that McCown will get 6.25 million guaranteed, including a fully guaranteed 5.25 million dollar base salary for 2015. That first year’s guaranteed base salary is more than any quarterback got on the open market last off-season as the likes of Michael Vick, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel etc all got 5 million dollars or less in guaranteed first year money last off-season.

That batch of quarterbacks includes Josh McCown, who, last off-season, parlayed a strong extended stretch as the Bears’ starting quarterback in the absence of Jay Cutler into a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Buccaneers that paid him 4.75 million guaranteed in his first year. If McCown was only worth that then, after a 2013 season in which he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception, how he is worth more now, after a disastrous 2014 season, especially since he’s now another year older, going into his age 36 season.

In 2014, McCown won just 1 of 11 starts, completing 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The Buccaneers moved the chains at a mere 63.46% rate in the 10 games McCown started and finished and it wasn’t like McCown didn’t have talent around him. The Buccaneers’ offensive supporting cast was far from perfect, but Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were one of four wide receiver duos to both have 1000+ yard seasons in 2014. The Browns don’t have anyone as good as either one of those two in their receiving corps. Overall, McCown graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34^th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible in 2014.

McCown’s 2013 was obviously better, but he’ll be two years removed from that in 2015, which is even more of a concern as he goes into his later 30s. Besides, that season was the clear outlier as, prior to that, the last season he had a quarterback rating higher than 70 was 2006. In his career, McCown completes 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 61 touchdowns, and 59 interceptions. I know the quarterback market is very weak this off-season, but that doesn’t mean that you should give a backup caliber player like McCown this kind of guaranteed money. They could have gotten someone like Colt McCoy or Jake Locker for half this price and at least they have enough youth to have upside. The Browns better hope Johnny Manziel can get it together this off-season otherwise they’re going to have a very tough time moving the ball in 2015.

Grade: D

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Detroit Lions 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

February 22, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive Tackle

Defensive tackle has been a strength for the Lions for years, but all three of their top defensive tackles, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley, are free agents this off-season. Mosley is the most likely to re-sign and will be the cheapest, but he’s going into his age 32 season. The Lions will find it borderline impossible to bring back all 3 of them and they’ll also have trouble bringing back even two of them. Defensive tackle help is needed this off-season and the Lions could turn to the early rounds of the draft to fill this need.

Cornerback

Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay were a great cornerback duo in 2014 for the Lions, grading out 12^th and 19^th among cornerbacks respectively on Pro Football Focus. However, Mathis is a free agent going into his age 35 season and they really lack depth at the position. Bill Bentley was drafted in the 3^rd round in 2012, but he hasn’t delivered yet, grading out below average in both 2012 and 2013 and then missing all but 3 snaps with a torn ACL in 2014. They need to add another cornerback to the mix, especially if Mathis isn’t brought back on a short-term deal as a stopgap.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each broke the 1000 yard barrier last season, one of just 4 wide receiver duos to do so (Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, and Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson were the other 3). However, they were the only two Lion wide receivers to play a snap and grade out above average in 2014, which becomes a serious problem if Johnson or Tate ever get hurt, as Johnson did for a period of time in 2014. Depth needs to be added.

Defensive End

Jason Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 47^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible last season and the Lions could cut him, to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space. Even if he returns, it could be as a defensive tackle. George Johnson was solid as a 3^rd defensive end last season and could be a candidate to replace Jones as a starter. Johnson played 502 snaps last season, grading out slightly above average, but he’s still unproven, after playing 156 snaps in his first 4 seasons combined. They could add to this position this off-season.

Guard

Rob Sims is a free agent going into his age 32 season. He’s aging, but he still showed the ability to be a capable starter in 2014, so they should try to bring him back. That being said, if they’re unable to, they’ll need to replace him, as they don’t really have a good internal replacement.

Center

Dominic Raiola seems to be at the end of his line, a free agent going into his age 37 season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked center out of 41 eligible in 2014. The Lions drafted Travis Swanson in the 3^rd round in 2014 to be a long-term solution, but he struggled as a rookie, primarily at right guard. He only played 277 snaps, so he wasn’t eligible for Pro Football Focus’ rankings, but no one played fewer snaps at guard and graded out worse.

Key Free Agents

DT Ndamukong Suh

Ndamukong Suh has a good chance to be the best free agent on the open market this off-season. Guys like Justin Houston, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas can all make arguments that they’re the best player with an expiring contract this off-season, but all 3 of those players figure to get franchise tagged. Because of franchise tag rules and Suh’s massive cap number in the contract year of his rookie deal in 2014, franchising Suh would cost the Lions 26.7 million, so that’s not really an option. The Lions could still sign Suh before free agency hits, but more than likely he’s going to want to test the market, in search of the richest deal that a defensive player has ever signed. He wants a deal bigger than the 6-year, 100 million dollar extension JJ Watt got last off-season. Suh isn’t quite Watt, but some team could still be willing to give him that. Suh joins Gerald McCoy (who got a 7-year, 98 million dollar extension last off-season) as the only defensive tackle to grade out in the top-4 among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons.

DT Nick Fairley

Nick Fairley is a frustrating player. He went 13^th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but, 4 years into his career, it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season. That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18^th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps, but now he heads into free agency still an enigma. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, discipline problems that won’t get better if he gets a ton of money, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 6-7 million annually.

G Rob Sims

Rob Sims is an ironman who has made all 80 starts over the past 5 seasons since arriving in Detroit, but he’s going into his age 32 season and graded out below average last season for the first time since 2008, back when he was a reserve with the Seahawks. He still played pretty well last year, grading out slightly below average, but he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 37^th and 40^th ranked guard in 2013 and 2014 respectively, so the days of him grading out in the top-13 at his position, like he did in 2011 and 2012, and being one of the better guards in the NFL are gone. Still, he’s a starting caliber guard who won’t break the bank, so he’ll draw plenty of interest. I don’t expect him to get much guaranteed money past 2015 though.

CB Rashean Mathis

Rashean Mathis looked done after 2012, as he graded out below average in 2012, missed 11 games with injury in 2011 and 2012 combined, and was going into his age 33 season. He didn’t get signed until mid-August in 2013, but he turned back the clock in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts and grading out 26^th in 2013 and 12^th in 2014. He’s a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season so he won’t command a large salary, but the Lions would love to bring him back as a stopgap in their secondary and he should draw interest from other cornerback needy teams as well.

DT CJ Mosley

CJ Mosley has been the 3^rd defensive tackle for the Lions over the past 2 seasons, but he’s made 9 starts, played 836 snaps, and graded out above average in both seasons so he’s been very important to the Lions. When you take into account that he graded out above average in 2011 and 2012, this is one of the best reserve defensive linemen in the NFL. He’s going into his age 32 season so he won’t get a ton of money on the open market, but he should get paid like a low-end starter. If the Lions are unable to bring back Suh and Fairley, Mosley could easily be a starter in Detroit next season.

C Dominic Raiola

Dominic Raiola has been with the Lions since they drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2014, making 203 starts over that time period, but he appears to be at the end of the line and is expected to retire this off-season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37^th ranked center out of 41 eligible last season. If he does decide to play another season, what would be his age 37 season, it probably won’t be in Detroit, as they appear ready to move forward with 2014 3^rd round pick Travis Swanson at center in 2015. He might not draw any interest at all on the open market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Reggie Bush

Bush never really became the otherworldly talent that the NFL was expecting him to be, after the Saints drafted the former Heisman winner 2^nd overall in 2006, but after an injury plagued tenure in New Orleans that saw him max out at 157 carries, Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He also missed 5 games with injury and Theo Riddick did a solid job as the complementary back in his absence. The Lions could cut Bush to save 3.5 million in cash and 1.72 million on the cap and move forward with the significantly cheaper Riddick behind Bell.

DE Jason Jones

Jason Jones was signed to a 3-year, 9.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago by the Lions, but he was limited to 87 snaps in 2013 by a torn patellar tendon and then graded out 47^th out of 59 eligible this season as a starter. The Lions could cut him to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space, but he’s only going into his age 29 season and he’s had more career success at defensive tackle than defensive end so the Lions could bring him back and move him inside. As a defensive tackle, the 6-3 274 pounder has graded out above average on limited snaps inside in both 2009 and 2012 and graded out 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a starter in 2010.

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

February 22, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Ike Taylor is done, as a free agent going into his age 35 season, after struggling in 2013 (98th out of 110 eligible cornerbacks) and missing 11 games with injury in 2014. They gave Cortez Allen a long-term contract in the off-season, but he struggled mightily before being benched and could be cut after just one year, a move that would save them 1.58 million on the 2015 cap. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd cornerback out of 108 eligible. William Gay was fine, but journeymen Brice McCain and Antwon Blake were a mixed bag. I expect they’re going to target cornerbacks early in 2015.

Outside Linebacker

Jarvis Jones was a first round pick of the Steelers’ in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, doing so on 646 snaps as a rookie and 237 snaps last year, when he missed 9 games (he also missed 2 games as a rookie). He’s still part of their long-term plans at outside linebacker, but he’s tough to count on and they need other players at the position as Jason Worilds and James Harrison are both free agents this off-season. The latter is going into his age 37 season.

Defensive End

Cameron Heyward was fantastic for the Steelers again last season, but they need help around him at the position. Stephon Tuitt and Cam Thomas were among the worst players at their position last season, grading out 40^th and 47^th respectively out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. Brett Keisel was better, but he’s going into his age 37 season. Tuitt was a 2^nd round rookie last year so he could be better in 2015 and he remains a big part of their future, but they need to add another young guy at the position.

Safety

Michael Mitchell was signed to a 5 year, 25 million dollar contract last off-season and did a decent job in his first season in Pittsburgh. However, there’s uncertainty about who the long-term solution is next to him. Troy Polamalu is going into his age 34 season and the Steelers can save 6 million in cash and 3.75 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season. He could also outright retire. Polamalu is still a capable player, grading out above average last season for the 8^th straight season, but he’s expensive, aging, declining (last season he ranked 48^th out of safeties, worst since 2009 when he played just 5 games), and has missed 24 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He probably doesn’t have a lot of time left as a starter in Pittsburgh. Shamarko Thomas was drafted in the 4^th round in 2013 as a potential successor, but he’s played just 195 snaps in 2 seasons, as he’s been unable to move ahead of Will Allen on the depth chart. Allen is going into his age 33 season. More youth needs to be added into the mix.

Running Back

The Steelers lost in the first round of the playoffs at home to the Ravens by a score of 30-17. The Ravens were a tough opponent and it’s possible they would have lost anyway, but it definitely hurt their chances of winning significantly when Le’Veon Bell got hurt towards the end of their week 17 win over the Bengals. That’s partially because Bell is so good (Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall running back last season), but it’s also partially because they have no depth behind him. The Steelers needed to sign Ben Tate the week before that game out of desperation. Tate actually got the first carry for the Steelers and his 7 touches were 2^nd by a Steeler running back in that game behind Josh Harris’ 11. Tate isn’t a long-term solution and neither Josh Harris nor Dri Archer seem like the type of player who can be counted on to carry the load if Bell misses time. Harris was an undrafted free agent and had just 18 carries as a rookie, rushing for just 41 yards. Archer had even fewer carries as a rookie, carrying the ball 11 times for 39 yards. The 2014 3^rd round pick might have a future role as a scatback, but the 5-8 173 pounder can’t carry much of a load. This is especially a concern considering Le’Veon Bell is facing a two game suspension to start 2015 for marijuana possession.

Key Free Agents

OLB Jason Worilds

Jason Worilds was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013, but he was a bit of a one year wonder so the Steelers used the transition tag on him, rather than giving him a long-term deal. Prior to 2013, the 2010 2nd round pick played a combined 979 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league, maxing out at 501 in 2011. However, he graded out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons and he shed the one-year wonder label in 2014 in his 2^nd full season as a starter, grading out 11^th at his position. He heads into free agency off of back-to-back top-12 seasons as a 3-4 outside linebacker, having made 31 of 32 starts over those 2 seasons. He made 9.75 million for 1 year on the transition tag last year and figures to get paid well on the open market this off-season. The cap strapped Steelers will have a tough time keeping him.

OLB James Harrison

James Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10^th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better. He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season. Scheme versatile, he’ll draw interest on cheap, one-year deals this off-season, assuming he still wants to play.

CB Brice McCain

Brice McCain was Pro Football Focus’ 24^th ranked cornerback in 2011 and looked like a potential future star, but that was the only season of his 6 year career that he’s graded out above average. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103^rd ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible in 2012 and dead last ranked in 2013. He played 615 snaps for the Steelers out of necessity, despite not playing a snap in weeks 1-3, but he wasn’t that good. He’ll be looking at deals near the minimum this off-season.

RB Ben Tate

Ben Tate was a 2nd round pick in 2010 by the Texans and he’s shown talent, but injuries have been a serious issue for him. As a rookie, he broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury. Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.26 yards per carry on 181 carries. He signed a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with the Browns last off-season, but he lasted just 8 games with Cleveland, missing 3 with injuries, being limited to 3.14 YPC when on the field, and getting cut mid-season. The Vikings gave him a chance, but he had just 38 yards on 13 carries in Minnesota and was eventually let go there too. The Steelers signed him out of desperation for the playoffs, but he had just 28 yards on 7 touches. Tate could be on his 5^th team in about 18 months if he’s signed elsewhere this off-season. He’ll be looking at one-year prove it deals near the minimum.

CB Ike Taylor

Ike Taylor has had a solid career and was Pro Football Focus’ 40^th cornerback ranked as recently as 2012, but he missed 5 games down the stretch that season with a broken arm, graded out 98^th out of 110 eligible in 2013, and then missed another 11 games this year with arm problems. Going into his age 35 season, there’s a good chance that Taylor’s career is done. He might either retire this off-season or go unsigned in free agency.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Cortez Allen

Cortez Allen was a 4th round pick by the Steelers in 2011. He barely played as a rookie, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked cornerback on 563 snaps in 2012 and their 37th ranked cornerback on 718 snaps in 2013. He was given a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season, but he was horrible in the first season of that extension. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible, got benched after week 7, played 42 defensive snaps the rest of the way, and ended the season on IR. The Steelers can save 5.631 million in cash and 1.581 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

WR Lance Moore

Lance Moore was a 1000 yard receiver in 2012 with the Saints, but that was over two years ago, that was the only 1000+ yard season of his career, he’s missed 17 games over the past 6 seasons combined, he’s going into his age 32 season, and he’s combined for 51 catches for 665 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. If he returns to the Steelers, he’ll be their 4th receiver at best behind Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers can save 1.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go and he’s basically asked for his release so I expect him to be let go this off-season.

DE Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas was decent in limited action in 2011 and 2012 with the Chargers, grading out above average on 395 snaps in 2011 and 404 snaps in 2012, while showing the versatility to play 3-4 defensive end and nose tackle. However, he struggled in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 51^st ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible and he struggled even more in 2014 in his first season with the Steelers, grading out dead last among 3-4 defensive ends. The Steelers can save 2 million in cash and cap space by letting him go.

S Troy Polamalu

Troy Polamalu has graded out above average in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s going into his age 34 season and coming off of a season where he ranked 48^th among safeties, worst since 2009 when he played just 5 games. He’s also missed 24 games in the last 6 seasons combined. He’s still a capable player and he’s a future Hall of Famer and I ultimately expect him back in Pittsburgh, but the cap strapped Steelers can cut him to save 6 million in cash and 3.75 million in cap space immediately so they’ll consider it.

DE Brett Keisel

Brett Keisel is one of the oldest players in the NFL, going into his age 37 season. He was decent on 451 snaps last season, but the end is near for him, especially coming off of a season ending triceps tear. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, missing 8 games over that period of time. If he returns in 2015, it’ll be as a reserve and the Steelers may opt to cut him to save 1.5 million in cash and cap space and bring him back on a minimum deal or let him leave outright.

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Cincinnati Bengals 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

February 22, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive End

Other than Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, the Bengals’ defensive line was horrible last season as only those two players played a snap for the Bengals on the defensive line and graded out above average. Wallace Gilberry and Robert Geathers were horrible as the Bengals #2 and #3 defensive ends last season, grading out 46^th and 59^th respectively out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Geathers can be a cap casualty, while Gilberry can be a reserve. Margus Hunt and Will Clarke are recent early picks, 2013 2^nd round and 2014 3^rd round respectively, but neither has been able to make it on to the field much early in their careers. Hunt has played 352 snaps in 2 seasons, while Clarke only played 64 snaps as a rookie, despite the aforementioned significant struggles ahead of him on the depth chart. More talent needs to be added this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

Geno Atkins had a down year by his standards this season, grading out just 20^th at his position, but he’ll be better in 2015 in his 2^nd year since the ACL tear. The issue is next to him, where Domata Peko has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 66^th ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013 and 80^th out of 81 eligible in 2014. Going into his age 31 season, the Bengals should cut him to save 3.7 million in cash and cap space for 2015. Even if they don’t let him go, they should still bring in an upgrade and make him a reserve. Peko should not be starting for this team next season.

Middle Linebacker

The Bengals need to figure out their linebacking situation. Rey Maualuga was only a part-time player in 2014 (for good reason after how he struggled in 2011, 2012, and 2013) and now he’s a free agent. Vontaze Burfict was limited to 5 games by knee problems and then had a serious knee procedure that has put his 2015 in doubt. Emmanuel Lamur and Vincent Rey both saw significant playing time this season, but both struggled. Lamur was Pro Football Focus’ 39^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible, while Rey graded out below average in action at both outside linebacker and middle linebacker.

Outside Linebacker

I detailed the Bengals’ linebacker problems above. Emmanuel Lamur is currently penciled into one 4-3 outside linebacker spot, but he struggled mightily last year. Vontaze Burfict was great at outside linebacker in 2013, but his future is clouded by injuries. Vincent Rey can play outside linebacker, but he struggled there in 2014 and he can also play middle linebacker. There should be more clarity before the draft, but I still expect them to add one linebacker at least in the early to middle rounds.

Guard

Clint Boling and Kevin Zeitler have been a great guard duo over the past 3 years, since they drafted Zeitler in the 1^st round in 2012. Both have graded out above average in all 3 seasons for the Bengals. However, Clint Boling is a free agent this off-season and the Bengals are in danger of losing him. If he’s not able to be re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Center

I know the Bengals like him, but 4^th round rookie Russell Bodine played like one, grading out 33^rd out of 41 eligible. I’m not convinced he’s their center of the future. They should add some competition for him this off-season.

Quarterback

The Bengals are in an awkward spot with Andy Dalton. Dalton has lost each of his first 4 playoff games, the 2^nd quarterback in NFL history to do that. That has led some to wonder if he can ever possibly win a playoff game, which is an absurd question considering the list of quarterbacks who have won playoff games (TJ Yates and Tim Tebow are recent examples). Dalton is there every year, making the playoffs in each of his first 4 years in the NFL, and he is a quarterback capable of winning the Super Bowl if everything is right around him, but he’s also far from the ideal signal caller. The problem is the Bengals aren’t exactly in a position to find an upgrade on him any time soon. Jason Campbell is a free agent this off-season though, so the Bengals should at least find a better backup quarterback in case they need to turn to him.

Key Free Agents

G Clint Boling

Boling, a 2011 4^th round pick, barely played as a rookie (175 snaps), but he’s been a starter over the past 3 seasons, making 44 of 48 starts (2 of which were at right tackle) and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked guard in 2012, 18^th ranked in 2013, and 19^th ranked in 2014. He’s quietly one of the better guards in the NFL and will command a decent amount on money on the open market. He’s expressed interest in returning to Cincinnati and they’d love to have him back.

CB Terence Newman

Terence Newman looked done after his 2011 season with the Cowboys, when he graded out 94^th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks, but he revived his career in Cincinnati over the past 3 seasons, making 41 starts and grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons. The issue is the one season he did grade out below average was last season, which is especially concerning for two reasons. The first reason is that it was his first season in Cincinnati without legendary defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who Newman was successful with in Dallas as well. The second reason is simply age, as Newman heads into his age 37 season. He might not have another left in him. He’ll probably have to wait a while for the phone to ring if he wants to keep playing. Perhaps a reunion in Minnesota with Zimmer would be good for both sides.

MLB Rey Maualuga

Rey Maualuga started his career at outside linebacker and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17^th and 11^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2009 and 2010 respectively, after the Bengals took him in the 2^nd round in 2009. However, the Bengals moved him to middle linebacker for 2011 and it’s been a steady decline. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 36^th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 eligible in 2011 and worst ranked in 2012. He was re-signed to a 2-year deal after that disastrous 2012 season, but he started seeing progressively fewer passing down snaps, playing 610 snaps in 2013 and 452 snaps in 2014. He graded out below average in both 2013 and 2014 once again and he missed 7 games with injuries combined in those 2 seasons. He’s decent against the run, but horrible in coverage. He’d be best off as a two-down 4-3 outside linebacker somewhere in his next stop.

TE Jermaine Gresham

Jermaine Gresham, a 2010 1^st round pick, somehow made the Pro-Bowl in both 2011 and 2012, but has hardly been a Pro-Bowl caliber player thus far in his 5 year career. His receiving numbers aren’t horrible (280 catches for 2722 yards and 24 touchdowns in 74 career games), but he’s a terrible run blocker and one of the most penalized tight ends in the game. He’s graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL, including each of the last 3. He was a little better in 2014, but he ranked 61^st out of 62 eligible tight ends in 2012 and 64^th out of 64 eligible in 2013. With 2013 1^st round pick Tyler Eifert in the mix and ready for a bigger role in 2015, I don’t expect Gresham back with the Bengals.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Robert Geathers

Robert Geathers was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014. This should not be a surprise considering he ranked 58^th out of 62 eligible in 2012, 57^th out of 67 eligible in 2011, 65^th out of 65 eligible in 2010, and 70^th out of 73 eligible in 2009. He wasn’t going to be better in 2014, on the other side of 30, coming off of torn elbow ligaments that limited him to 22 snaps in 2013. Now he’s going into his age 32 season in 2015 and the Bengals can save 3.050 million in cash and on the cap by releasing him. It shouldn’t be a hard decision.

DT Domata Peko

Domata Peko was once a solid starter for the Bengals, but he has really struggled over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66^th ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013 and 80^th out of 81 eligible in 2014. Going into his age 31 season, the Bengals could easily cut him to save 3.7 million in cash and cap space for 2015.

CB Leon Hall

Leon Hall made 15 starts for the Bengals in 2014, but graded out below average last season for the first time in his 8-year career. That shouldn’t be a surprise considering he tore his Achilles twice and had a 3 year stretch from 2011-2013 where he played 28 games. Now going into his age 31 season, Hall’s best days are likely behind him. Hall is owed 7.8 million non-guaranteed in 2015 and the Bengals can save all 7.8 million of that in cap space by letting him go this off-season. Even though they’re not starved for cap space, they might still pull the trigger on that move, especially if they want to be big free agency players, and go into 2015 with Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard, Adam Jones, and maybe Terence Newman at cornerback.

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Philadelphia Eagles 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

February 22, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher both graded out below average this season as the Eagles’ starting cornerbacks. Williams graded out 49^th out of 108 eligible, while Fletcher graded out 92^nd. Fletcher is a free agent and won’t be back as a starter, while Williams could be a cap casualty, owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in 2015. He’s not terrible, but they could just find that too rich for a cornerback of his caliber. That would leave them with Brandon Boykin and Nolan Carroll. Carroll, their 4^th cornerback last season, has some starting experience and Boykin is a fantastic slot cornerback, but they’d need another cornerback in that situation. Even if Williams is brought back, they still should add another cornerback to the mix at some point.

Wide Receiver

Jeremy Maclin was fantastic last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked wide receiver. Riley Cooper was the opposite, grading out dead last in the first year of a 5-year, 22.5 million dollar deal he signed the previous off-season. Even if Maclin is re-signed, they’ll need help at the position. They can’t really cut Riley Cooper because doing so would cost them on the cap, but they need competition for him as the 3^rd receiver behind Maclin and Jordan Matthews, a 2014 2^nd round pick who showed a lot of promise as a rookie. If Maclin isn’t re-signed, this becomes a much bigger issue.

Quarterback

The Eagles thought they had their quarterback of the future when Nick Foles completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in 2013 in his first year as a starter, but those numbers slipped to 59.8% completion, 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2014. Much of Foles’ strong production in 2013 was as a result of the scheme, as he only graded out 17^th at his position on Pro Football Focus. As you can imagine, that slipped to 25^th out of 39 eligible in 2014, barely better than backup Mark Sanchez (27^th), who made 8 starts in Foles’ absence. The fact that their offense wasn’t significantly worse with Sanchez under center is a concern. Sanchez is a free agent this off-season. He’s not a long-term solution either, but the Eagles could bring him back as competition for Foles because he might be the best option they have, given the free agency market and where they’re picking in the draft. Even if it’s not Sanchez, I expect them to bring in some competition for Foles this off-season.

Middle Linebacker

DeMeco Ryans was limited to 8 games by injury this season and the Eagles really struggled at middle linebacker in his absence as Casey Matthews, Emmanuel Acho, and Marcus Smith (their 1^st round pick and a converted outside linebacker) all graded out below average in his absence. Smith is moving back to outside linebacker in 2015 and neither of the other two is a long term option. If the Eagles cut Ryans this off-season, which they easily could, as he’s owed a non-guaranteed 6.9 million in his age 31 season in 2015, they’ll need a long-term solution inside next to Mychal Kendricks.

Guard

Evan Mathis is still fantastic at left guard, but the Eagles have an issue at right guard. Todd Herremans was limited to 585 snaps and 8 starts by injuries and he was horrible, grading out 57^th out of 78 eligible guards, despite limited playing time. He’s expected to be a cap casualty going into his age 33 season and Andrew Gardner wasn’t really that impressive in his absence. Competition for Gardner is needed.

Safety

Malcolm Jenkins and Nate Allen both played well at safety for the Eagles last season, but Allen is a free agent this off-season and, if he’s not re-signed, the Eagles will need to find a replacement because they don’t really have an internal one.

Key Free Agents

WR Jeremy Maclin

Jeremy Maclin missed all of 2013 with injury and was terrible in 2012, grading out 101^st out of 105 eligible, but he bet on himself with a 1-year, 5.5 million dollar deal in free agency last year and it paid off in a big way. Maclin had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14^th ranked wide receiver. He’s still a bit of a one year wonder in terms of being a top level receiver so the franchise tag could be a nice middle ground for the Eagles between letting him leave and giving him a huge extension, but, either way, Maclin will get a good amount of money this off-season.

OLB Brandon Graham

Graham was a first round pick by the Eagles in 2010, but he was limited to 491 snaps in his first 2 seasons combined by injuries. However, he played well when on the field in those 2 seasons and he had somewhat of a breakout year in 2012. He didn’t get a ton of playing time (435 snaps), which is why it’s hard to call it a true breakout year, but he still graded out 2^nd among 4-3 defensive ends that season, despite the limited playing time. The Eagles moved to a 3-4 in 2013, which Graham wasn’t seen as a good fit for, so he only saw 331 snaps, but he still graded out 15^th at his position, making it two straight years where no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out better at his position. In 2014, he was still the 3^rd outside linebacker, but he played ahead of 1^st round pick Marcus Smith all year, set a career high in snaps played with 524 snaps and graded out 3^rd among 3-4 outside linebackers. For the third straight year, no one graded out better at his position on fewer snaps. Now he hits free agency with scheme versatility on his resume and the potential to become one of the best edge rushers in the NFL if he’s finally given regular playing time. He’s the type of player who you could sign to a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal and watch it become a bargain over the next couple of years.

S Nate Allen

Nate Allen has been a starter with the Eagles for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2010. Over that period of time, he’s played 74 of a possible 80 games, including 70 starts, but he has been up and down, grading out below average in 3 of 5 seasons and never having back-to-back above average seasons. His worst year came in 2012, when he graded out 84^th out of 88 eligible safeties. However, he graded out above average last season (28^th), his terrible 2012 is more than 2 years ago, and he’s an experienced starter, so he should get solid starter’s money on the open market this off-season, if the Eagles are unable to re-sign him prior to that. A recent arrest complicates matters a bit.

CB Bradley Fletcher

Bradley Fletcher started all 16 games at cornerback last season for the Eagles, but he was horrible, grading out 92^nd out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. Fletcher was a 3^rd round pick of the Rams’ in 2009, but last season was the first season in his career that he made all 16 starts and, though he’s had decent success as a reserve in his career, he’s not a starting caliber cornerback. He’s a depth cornerback at best and not a very reliable one, as he’s missed 25 games in 6 seasons in the NFL.

QB Mark Sanchez

Everyone was quick to say that Mark Sanchez had turned it around in Philadelphia last year working with Chip Kelly instead of Rex Ryan, but Sanchez was still a backup caliber quarterback. The Eagles moved the chains at a 72.34% rate with Nick Foles and a 72.49% rate with Mark Sanchez, even though Sanchez had a much stronger offensive line and running game in front of him. The fact that Sanchez was worse than Foles last season and Foles was having a bad year shows that, overall, he really didn’t turn it around. He completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, mediocre numbers in today’s NFL. Out of the league in 2013 because of injury, Sanchez has ranked 27^th (2014), 37^th (2012), 36^th (2011), 27^th (2010), and 39^th (2009) on Pro Football Focus since being drafted in 2009. He’s somehow made 76 starts over that period of time, but any team he makes starts for next season is probably not making the playoffs. He’ll get a decent amount of money on a weak quarterback market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB DeMeco Ryans

There are five things I look at to determine whether or not a player will become a cap casualty and DeMeco Ryans meets four of them. He’s aging, expensive, declining, and coming off of a significant injury. The only thing is the Eagles won’t be able to find a replacement that easily, but I still expect them to let him go. He missed 8 games with a torn Achilles last season, is going into his age 31 season, is owed 6.9 million non-guaranteed (all of which they can save on the cap by letting him go), and, in his last full season as a starter in 2013, he was horrible, grading out 53^rd out of 55 eligible middle linebackers. While it will be hard to find a starting caliber middle linebacker to replace him inside next to Mychal Kendricks, Ryans isn’t a starting caliber middle linebacker either and he’s definitely not worth his salary.

TE James Casey

When the Eagles signed James Casey to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, they envisioned the fullback/tight end as a jack of all traits matchup nightmare. That vision hasn’t become a reality though as he’s played just 330 snaps on offense in his first 2 seasons in Philadelphia. The Eagles don’t need to be paying him 4 million dollars non-guaranteed in 2015 to be a de facto #3 tight end behind Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. The Eagles would save that full amount on the cap by letting him go.

G Todd Herremans

Todd Herremans was limited to 8 games by injuries in 2014 (7 at right guard, 1 at right tackle) and he graded out Pro Football Focus’ 57^th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. He’s now going into his age 33 season, owed a non-guaranteed 4 million. He was a solid starter in 2013 and he has good versatility, but the Eagles may opt to move on from the aging veteran in favor of finding a younger option at right guard. The Eagles would immediately save 2.8 million on the cap by letting him go.

OLB Trent Cole

There’s been talk of the Eagles releasing Trent Cole this off-season since Chip Kelly showed up. Cole was never seen as a great fit for the Eagles’ 3-4, but his contract didn’t let them get any sort of real cap relief by cutting or trading him in either of the last 2 off-seasons so the rumored plan has always been to cut him this off-season. Doing so would save them 10.025 million in cash and 8.425 million immediately on the cap and Cole is going into his age 33 season. Cole has been solid in 2013 and 2014 in the 3-4, grading out 7^th in 2013 and 19^th in 2014, but the Eagles already have Connor Barwin and Marcus Smith and might prefer to cut Cole to free up cap space to re-sign Brandon Graham.

CB Cary Williams

Cary Williams has made all 32 starts for the Eagles at cornerback over the last 2 seasons, but he’s graded out below average in each of them. Even though he wasn’t that bad in 2014 (49^th out of 108 eligible), the Eagles might cut him anyway. His salary for 2015 is 6.5 million non-guaranteed and they can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go. There are better cornerbacks to be had for that price.

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Buffalo Bills 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

February 22, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Quarterback

Kyle Orton wasn’t good in 2014, but he was sadly one of the best quarterbacks the Bills have had in the last decade and a half. In the 12 games he started, the Bills moved the chains at a 66.67% rate, which isn’t good, but it was significantly better than the 63.30% rate they moved the chains in the 4 starts that EJ Manuel made. However, Orton retired, ahead of his age 33 season, so the Bills are stuck with just Manuel, who has completed 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.43 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The Bills’ options will be limited, especially without a first round pick, but they’ll have to add competition for him this off-season.

Guard

The Bills’ guard play was horrible last season. Erik Pears started on one side, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 76^th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. On the other side, Chris Williams, Cyril Richardson, and Kraig Urbik split snaps and all 3 graded out significantly below average. Urbik graded out 53^rd on 636 snaps, Richardson 60^th on 321 snaps, and Williams struggled mightily on 132 snaps before going down with a back injury. Williams was brought in to be a starter last off-season, but he’s never been a starting caliber player, so he should be a cap casualty. Urbik could be a cap casualty as well (though he’s been better in the past), while Pears is a free agent going into his age 33 season. They need at least one, if not two new starters at the position this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

Guard isn’t the only place on the offensive line where the Bills have problems. Left tackle Cordy Glenn was the only player to play more than 100 snaps for them and grade out above average. Seantrel Henderson started 16 games at right tackle despite being a mere 7^th round rookie and it showed, as he graded out 82^nd out of 84 eligible offensive tackles. The Bills drafted Cyrus Kouandjio in the 2^nd round last year, but he didn’t play a snap, even behind a struggling Henderson, and now there’s talk that he could be moving to guard. Right tackle is still a problem area.

Tight End

Scott Chandler is a decent tight end, but they need more of a pass catching threat from the tight end position. Chandler caught just 47 passes for 497 yards and 3 touchdowns last season, grading out 47^th out of 67 eligible overall, and his career best slash line is 53/655/2. #2 tight end Lee Smith is a solid blocker, but doesn’t offer anything in the passing game and he’s also a free agent.

Wide Receiver

No wide receiver for the Bills graded out above average on Pro Football Focus last season. The Bills like Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods for the future, but they could find competition this off-season for slot receiver Chris Hogan. Hogan had 188 career snaps in 3 seasons as an undrafted free agent from the 2011 class coming into 2014 and in 2014, he caught 41 passes for 433 yards on 58 targets (70.7%) and 345 routes run (1.26 yards per route run), while grading out 72^nd out of 110 eligible wide receivers.

Outside Linebacker

The Bills are presumably moving back to a 3-4 under Rex Ryan in 2015. This shouldn’t be an issue because they ran this exact scheme in 2013 under former defensive coordinator Doug Marrone, a Rex Ryan disciple. Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes graded out 9^th and 14^th respectively among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus this season, but Hughes is a free agent this off-season and he’ll need to be replaced if he’s not re-signed. Even if he is, their depth is very suspect at the position. Their top reserve in 2014 by snaps played was Manny Lawson, who graded out 48^th out of 59 eligible on 348 snaps. He could be a cap casualty this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 2.35 million in an age 31 season in 2015.

Key Free Agents

DE Jerry Hughes

Jerry Hughes was a bust in Indianapolis as a first round pick in 2010, playing a combined 240 snaps in 2010 and 2011 and then struggling in his first serious action in 2012, grading out 25^th out of 34 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers. The Bills acquired him after that season for basically nothing and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and their 14^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014. There are some concerns about his ability to produce outside of the Bills’ talented front 7, but he answered concerns about his scheme versatility and about him being a one-year wonder with his play this season. He’s a talented, scheme versatile edge rusher who will get a lot of money somewhere this off-season. The Bills will try to bring him back, but he might get more money elsewhere.

S Da’Norris Searcy

Searcy was a 4^thround pick by the Bills in 2011 NFL Draft. He played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18^th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps), so someone will give him starter’s money to be a traditional starting safety for them.

MLB Brandon Spikes

Spikes is only a two down middle linebacker, but he’s very good at what he does. He’s graded out 4^th, 22^nd, 1^st, 1^st, and 9^th among middle linebackers against the run in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively (2010 was his rookie year after the Patriots drafted him in the 2^nd round that year). However, he’s never played more than 742 snaps in a season because of his issues in coverage and he’s never ranked higher than 20^th at his position in coverage. I don’t expect the Bills to bring him back because Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham had breakout years in 2014 and Kiko Alonso returns in 2015, but Spikes will get decent money somewhere because he serves a valuable role.

RB CJ Spiller

CJ Spiller, a 2010 1^st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), with 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns. He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone. He hits free agency having never surpassed 207 carries with annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons) and coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games. He could be a nice buy low candidate though, as he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. A reunion with former Head Coach Chan Gailey (now offensive coordinator of the Jets) has been rumored and would make a lot of sense. Spiller had his huge 2012 season under Gailey.

G Erik Pears

Erik Pears graded out below average in 3 straight seasons from 2011-2013 as the Bills’ starting right tackle (making 39 starts) so they moved him inside to right guard. The results weren’t good. Pears graded out 76^th out of 78 eligible guards. Going into his age 33 season this off-season, Pears will be met by a very cold market. It’s very possible he’s done in the NFL.

Cap Casualty Candidates

OLB Keith Rivers

Keith Rivers struggled on 192 snaps last season, the only Bills linebacker who graded out below average last season. The Bills are stacked at linebacker, even if they don’t bring Brandon Spikes back, with Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham breaking out last year, and Kiko Alonso returning from injury, so there’s no need to keep Rivers at his non-guaranteed 1.7 million dollar salary for 2015. The Bills can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

G Chris Williams

For some reason, the Bills decided to give a 4-year, 13.5 million dollar deal to Chris Williams last off-season, even though he was Pro Football Focus’ 74th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2013. That wasn’t anything new for him. The 14th overall pick by the Bears in 2008 has been a massive bust, struggling at pretty much every position on the offensive line in his career. With the exception of his rookie year, when he played just 16 snaps, he’s never graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t a starter in 2012, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked guard out of 82 eligible in 2010 and 60th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2011. In 2014, he struggled on 132 snaps before going down for the season with a back injury. Maybe the Bills will admit their mistake and let him go, to save 2.475 million in cash. They’d save just 725K on the cap by doing that, but it would get him off their cap completely for 2016 and he’s not a starting caliber player.

DE Manny Lawson

Manny Lawson was horrible last season at 4-3 defensive end, grading out 48^th out of 59 eligible, despite playing just 349 snaps in a reserve role. Even if Jerry Hughes isn’t retained, the Bills could let Lawson go. He’s simply a better player as a non-rush linebacker than he is at 4-3 defensive end and, even if they don’t bring Brandon Spikes back, the Bills are still set in terms of non-rush linebackers with Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, and Kiko Alonso. Cutting Lawson, ahead of his age 31 season in 2015, would save them 2.35 million in cash and 1.6 million immediately on the cap.

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