Cleveland Browns re-sign CB Joe Haden

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

When Richard Sherman got a 4-year, 56 million dollar extension last week, I didn’t love it because it was a ton of money for a cornerback, but I understood why he deserved that and why they had to make the move. Joe Haden’s extension this week is actually longer and worth more in maximum money, full guaranteed money, and guaranteed for injury money than Richard Sherman’s. Sherman’s 4-year, 56 million dollar deal has 40 million guaranteed, with about 12 million fully guaranteed, while Joe Haden’s deal is worth 68 million over 5 years with 45 million guaranteed, 22 million of which is fully guaranteed. Sherman’s deal is worth more in annually value, but Haden is still getting a massive deal.

Joe Haden is a terrific cornerback, but I don’t think he’s quite at the level of deserving what Sherman got so I don’t understand this deal quite as much. I think Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis are the top cornerbacks in the NFL and there’s a big gap between them and the rest of the league. In 3 years in the NFL, Richard Sherman has allowed 115 of 248 (46.4%) for 1621 yards (6.54 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, while deflecting 34 passes and committing 26 penalties. Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis has allowed 43.1% completion, 5.41 YPA, and 12 touchdowns, while picking off 20 passes, since 2008.

In 4 years in the league, Joe Haden has allowed 179 of 331 (54.1%) for 2250 yards (6.80 YPA), 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while deflecting 50 passes and committing 21 penalties. That’s very impressive, but it’s not at the same level as Sherman or Revis. Revis has graded out among Pro Football Focus’ top-3 cornerbacks in 4 of his last 5 healthy seasons. Meanwhile, Richard Sherman has graded out 2nd and 6th in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Joe Haden has never graded out higher than 6th in 4 seasons, doing so in his rookie year in 2010, and he came in 13th, 20th, and 18th in the last 3 seasons respectively. That’s still very impressive, especially considering the volatility of the cornerback position. He’s been one of Pro Football Focus’ top-20 cornerbacks in each of the last 4 seasons, something only the supremely underrated Jason McCourty can also say (Revis missed 2012 with injury and Sherman was still in college in 2010). Haden might be the #3 cornerback in the NFL and he’s definitely top-5, but he’s not at the same level as Sherman and Revis so this deal is a bit of an overpay.

I understand the Browns have a lot of cap space to play with and need to pay players a premium to pay for them or continue playing for them. However, the Browns obviously have designs of getting out of the cellar and building a team that will be competitive yearly in the NFL over the next few seasons. That’s going to eventually get expensive and it’s going to be harder to do that when Joe Haden’s cap number if 14.5 million in 2017. I’m not saying re-signing him was a mistake, but I think they overpaid a little. I like Sherman’s deal better than this one.

Grade: B

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Seattle Seahawks re-sign CB Richard Sherman

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Richard Sherman’s extension will make him easily the highest paid cornerback in terms of average salary at 14 million dollars yearly (4 years, 56 million added on to the one year remaining on his current contract). It’s a lot of money, especially when you include that 40 million of it is guaranteed, though the Seahawks will have options to get out of his 2015 and 2016 salaries within 5 days of the Super Bowl. However, Sherman deserves to be the highest paid cornerback in the NFL.

In 3 years in the NFL, Richard Sherman has allowed 115 of 248 (46.4%) for 1621 yards (6.54 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, while deflecting 34 passes and committing 26 penalties. No other NFL cornerback really comes close to that, with the exception of Darrelle Revis, who has allowed 43.1% completion, 5.41 YPA, and 12 touchdowns, while picking off 20 passes, since 2008. Sherman is essentially Revis with better ball skills, less of an injury history, and 3 years younger, only going into his age 26 season.

He deserved to get more than the 12 million yearly Darrelle Revis got from the Patriots. It’s hard to say that 56 million over 4 years is a great value, but it’s appropriate and the Seahawks really did need to keep him. The guaranteed money seems like a lot, but, again, it’s not all fully guaranteed and this deal only takes Sherman through his age 31 season so it’s unlikely, barring injury, that the Seahawks will see the need to let Sherman go at any point throughout the duration of the guaranteed money.

Grade: B+

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Buffalo Bills trade WR Steve Johnson to San Francisco 49ers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Bills, Uncategorized

Trade for Bills: Steve Johnson was as good as gone after the Bills traded up for Sammy Watkins, after trading for Mike Williams before the draft. The Bills will go into 2014 with Watkins, Robert Woods, and Mike Williams as their top-3 wide receivers and there wasn’t a place for Steve Johnson, who was scheduled to make 3.925 million between now and the end of the season. Given that, credit the Bills for somehow getting a 4th round pick (with the potential to turn into a 3rd round pick) in the 2015 draft. The Bills’ decision to trade two first rounders for Sammy Watkins remains puzzling, but this helps a little bit.

Grade: A

Trade for 49ers: I don’t get this move for the 49ers. They obviously needed wide receiver help, but they needed that wide receiver help way more in the long-term than the short-term. Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree are more than serviceable starters, but the long-term issue is that Crabtree is going into his contract year and Boldin is going into his age 34 season. They had an excess of 2014 draft picks and could have spent a couple on young wide receivers.

Instead, they traded a pick in next year’s draft for Steve Johnson, and a fairly high one at that. Johnson is obviously more of a help in the short-term than a rookie would have been, but the 49ers are going to get very expensive over the next two off-seasons so Johnson will have to really impress for the 49ers to pay him his 6.025 million dollar salary for 2015. They’re basically trading a 2015 mid round pick for a year of Steve Johnson at a 3.925 million dollar salary.

That’s way more than a rookie would have cost. That’s probably more than a 2nd round rookie would have cost over 4 years. That’s a big deal for a team as pressed against the cap as the 49ers. They’ll get some cap space freed up on June 1st when Carlos Rogers comes off their books, but they’ll need all of that, and maybe some more, to sign their rookie class and fill out their roster. They may have to restructure some contracts and push money forward to the future, which is a dangerous precedent. I understand the desire to win now, but the 49ers are still a young team that can be very good for the next 5-7 years. They don’t have to sell out for this season. It seems like a misuse of resources for a team that is going to have to properly use them over the next few off-seasons if they’re going to maintain their status as a perennial contender.

The one thing that could make this deal make more sense is if the 49ers do decide to let Frank Gore go. Frank Gore has a 6.45 million dollar cap number and the 49ers can save all of that on the cap if they were to let him go ahead of his age 31 season. Gore was still a productive player last season, but he hit a career low in yards per carry at 4.1 and his 16 catches were his lowest since his rookie year. He’s going into his age 31 season with 2518 career touches and, after drafting Carlos Hyde with a 2nd round pick that they might have originally used on a wide receiver, they may feel comfortable going into 2014 without him. He’s not worth that kind of money anymore, especially for a team this pressed against the cap, and the 49ers can get away with Carlos Hyde, Kendall Hunter, and Marcus Lattimore as their top-3 running backs going into 2014.

Grade: C

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2014 NFL Day 2 Mock Draft

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

* = Player had private visit with team

33. Houston Texans- DT Louis Nix (Notre Dame)

34. Washington Redskins- OT Morgan Moses* (Virginia)

35. Cleveland Browns- WR Marqise Lee (USC)

36. Oakland Raiders- QB Derek Carr* (Fresno State)

37. Atlanta Falcons- TE Jace Amaro* (Texas Tech)

38. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- QB Jimmy Garoppolo* (Eastern Illinois)

39. Jacksonville Jaguars- C Weston Richburg (Colorado State)

40. Seattle Seahawks- DE DeMarcus Lawrence* (Boise State)

41. Buffalo Bills- OT Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama)

42. Tennessee Titans- RB Carlos Hyde* (Ohio State)

43. New York Giants- DT Ra’Shede Hageman (Minnesota)

44. St. Louis Rams- S Terrence Brooks (Florida State)

45. Detroit Lions- WR Cody Latimer* (Indiana)

46. Pittsburgh Steelers- WR Martavis Bryant* (Clemson)

47. Dallas Cowboys- DE Kony Ealy* (Missouri)

48. Baltimore Ravens- S Keith McGill* (Utah)

49. New York Jets- WR Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt)

50. Miami Dolphins- MLB Chris Borland (Wisconsin)

51. Chicago Bears- DT Timmy Jernigan (Florida State)

52. Arizona Cardinals- OT Joel Bitonio (Nevada)

53. Green Bay Packers- TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington)

54. Philadelphia Eagles- S Ed Reynolds (Stanford)

55. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Scott Crichton (Oregon State)

56. San Francisco 49ers- C Mike Martin (USC)

57. San Diego Chargers- OLB Jeremiah Attachou* (Georgia Tech)

58. New Orleans Saints- CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste* (Nebraska)

59. Indianapolis Colts- DE Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame)

60. Carolina Panthers- G Xavier Su’a-Filo (UCLA)

61. San Francisco 49ers- OLB Trent Murphy (Stanford)

62. New England Patriots- TE Troy Niklas (Notre Dame)

63. Denver Broncos- OLB Telvin Smith (Florida State)

64. Seattle Seahawks- WR Davante Adams* (Fresno State)

65. Houston Texans- QB Tom Savage* (Pittsburgh)

66. Washington Redskins- CB Phillip Gaines (Rice)

67. Oakland Raiders- G Brandon Thomas* (Clemson)

68. Atlanta Falcons- OLB Kyle Van Noy* (BYU)

69. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- OT Billy Turner* (North Dakota State)

70. Jacksonville Jaguars- WR Allen Robinson (Penn State)

71. Cleveland Browns- OT Zach Mewhort (Ohio State)

72. Minnesota Vikings- G Gabe Jackson (Mississippi)

73. Buffalo Bills- TE CJ Fiedorowicz (Iowa)

74. New York Giants- DE Kareem Martin (North Carolina)

75. St. Louis Rams- QB AJ McCarron* (Alabama)

76. Detroit Lions- S Dexter McDougle* (Maryland)

77. San Francisco 49ers- WR Paul Robinson* (Colorado)

78. Dallas Cowboys- S LaMarcus Joyner* (Florida State)

79. Baltimore Ravens- WR Jarvis Landry (LSU)

80. New York Jets- OLB Carl Bradford (Arizona State)

81. Miami Dolphins- G Trai Turner* (LSU)

82. Chicago Bears- CB Walt Aikens* (Liberty)

83. Philadelphia Eagles- MLB Jordan Tripp* (Montana)

84. Arizona Cardinals- WR Donte Moncrief* (Mississippi)

85. Green Bay Packers- WR Bruce Ellington (South Carolina)

86. Philadelphia Eagles- CB Dontae Johnson* (NC State)

87. Kansas City Chiefs- WR Kevin Norwood (Alabama)

88. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Will Clarke (West Virginia)

89. San Diego Chargers- DT Da’Quan Jones (Penn State)

90. Indianapolis Colts- CB Pierre Desir (Lindenwood)

91. New Orleans Saints- RB Tre Mason (Auburn)

92. Carolina Panthers- OT Antonio Richardson (Tennessee)

93. New England Patriots- C Travis Swanson (Arkansas)

94. San Francisco 49ers- CB Aaron Colvin* (Oklahoma)

95. Denver Broncos- RB Jeremy Hill (LSU)

96. Minnesota Vikings- RB Bishop Sankey (Washington)

97. Pittsburgh Steelers- DE Brent Urban (Virginia)

98. Green Bay Packers- MLB Jordan Zumwalt (UCLA)

99. Baltimore Ravens- OT Cameron Fleming (Stanford)

100. San Francisco 49ers- MLB Christian Kirksey (Iowa)

Seattle Seahawks re-sign S Earl Thomas

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

The Seahawks have made Earl Thomas easily the highest paid safety in the NFL, giving him 10 million dollars annually over the course of this extension and guaranteeing that Thomas will make 27.725 million dollars. While the 40 million dollar total value of this contract isn’t a record, both the guaranteed money and the annual salary are records (for non-rookie contracts), surpassing the deal that Jairus Byrd got earlier this off-season from the Saints, which gave him 54 million over 6 years with 26.3 million guaranteed.

Some people consider Earl Thomas the top safety in the NFL. I disagree, in favor of Jairus Byrd. Byrd has graded out higher than Thomas on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons that Thomas has been in the league. Byrd was 3rd among safeties in 2011, 2nd in 2012, and 8th in 2013, only coming in 8th because he missed time with injury. Thomas, meanwhile, has never graded out higher than 8th, doing so in 2011, and finishing 9th in 2013.

There’s something to be said for the fact that Thomas is 3 years younger (only going into his age 25 season) and this deal only taking him until his age 29 season, while the Saints could theoretically have Byrd under contract until his age 33 season. Thomas has also never missed a game, while Byrd has missed 7 games in 5 seasons, including recently 5 games missed in 2013 with foot problems. However, Byrd is the best safety in the NFL, not Thomas.

The big difference: In 5 seasons, Byrd has missed 22 tackles, while Thomas has missed 55 tackles in 4 seasons, including 31 over the past 2 seasons alone. That might sound like splitting hairs, but when we’re talking about best safety in the NFL, that type of thing matters. Both provide excellent depth coverage, but Byrd is also a sound tackler, which is not something you can say about Thomas. Byrd is the best safety in the NFL, while Thomas is in the mix with guys like TJ Ward, Eric Weddle, Eric Berry, Devin McCourty, and Troy Polamalu, who are in that next group of safeties.

This isn’t a bad deal, especially since it doesn’t even take Thomas into his 30s, meaning there’s a good chance he plays out this entire contract (5 years total, including the 4 years of extension). Thomas is a very valuable part of a Super Bowl winning defense. However, he doesn’t deserve to be the highest paid safety in the NFL. The Seahawks have so much young talent that they’re going to get so expensive to keep together over the next few seasons.

Richard Sherman is next with a deal that is going to be worth 12+ million dollars yearly and then Russell Wilson with a deal that’ll probably pay him 20+ million dollars yearly. Those two will both deserve their contracts more than Thomas deserves this one. Bobby Wagner is another guy that could command big money soon, while Russell Okung, Byron Maxwell, and Cliff Avril are going into contract years. They already have big contracts given to Max Unger, Brandon Mebane, Kam Chancellor, Percy Harvin, Michael Bennett and Marshawn Lynch on their books. Overpaying guys, no matter how talented they are, is being financially irresponsible, which is not something the Seahawks can afford to be.

Grade: B-

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign DE Anthony Spencer

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

From 2008-2012, Anthony Spencer was a top-11 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons, including 4 as an every down starter and topping at #1 overall in 2012. As a result, he was franchise tagged by the Cowboys twice, but he played just 38 snaps on his 2nd franchise tag in 2013, missing most of the season with a knee injury. Between the knee injury and the fact that he’s going into his age 30 season, he was met with a cold market this off-season, remaining unsigned until late April and settling for 2 million on a one year prove it deal from the Cowboys.

That deal could end up being a complete steal for the Cowboys. Spencer can only make up to 3.5 million through incentives, 750K of that 2 million is in per game roster bonuses, and none of it is signing bonus, so none of his contract is guaranteed. Spencer has never played in a 4-3 in the NFL before, with the exception of those 38 snaps last season, but presumably, if he’s healthy, he can be an above average starter at the 4-3 defensive end position in rotation with George Selvie and a rookie.

The Cowboys are in desperate need of defensive line help, after losing both Jason Hatcher and DeMarcus Ware this off-season, and Spencer can provide that in a big way if he’s right. He’ll be motivated to prove himself ahead of free agency next off-season so he can finally get that long-term deal. Between the contract year of his rookie deal, two franchise tags, and this one year deal, Spencer will be paying in 4 straight contract years. We’ve seen him do some of his best work in contract years.

Grade: A

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San Francisco 49ers re-sign WR Anquan Boldin

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Anquan Boldin should be on the decline. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Anquan Boldin is now going into his age 34 season and is “only” 29th all-time in receiving yardage.

Instead, Boldin is coming off of his best season in terms of receiving yardage (1173) since 2006. And it wasn’t just the receiver-needy 49ers forcing him the ball every play. Boldin caught 69.1% of his targets, averaged 2.55 yards per route run (5th in the NFL), dropped just 6 passes, broke 13 tackles, averaged 5.2 yards after catch per catch, and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver, including 3rd ranked in terms of pure pass catching grade. Colin Kaepernick had a 118.6 QB rating when throwing to him, which was 6th in the NFL.

It’s uncommon for a receiver to have that kind of season at age 33, but you have to remember what kind of receiver Anquan Boldin is. He’s never been a great athlete, relying on superb hands and body control, as well as physicality and ability to shake tackles after the catch. He isn’t someone who gets a lot of separation, but he’s almost always open even when he’s not. That type of receiver can survive into his mid-30s in ways that receivers more dependent on athleticism in the prime of their careers can’t. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him continue to produce in 2014 and 2015.

This was a very good move for the receiver-needy 49ers to lock up Anquan Boldin on this short-term deal. Boldin will make 12 million over 2 years maximum and the 49ers could get out of it after 1-year and 6 million dollars guaranteed if they chose to do so. Most likely, they’ll keep him on into 2015 because he’ll continue to prove to be an asset in the passing game in 2014 opposite Michael Crabtree. This deal is very similar to the one the Broncos gave Wes Welker in a similar stage in his career last off-season and I think it makes a lot of sense.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos sign WR Emmanuel Sanders

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Broncos needed a cheap replacement for Eric Decker and Emmanuel Sanders will see a boost in production by moving to the Broncos’ passing offense, but he’s really “just a guy” at the wide receiver position so 5 million annually is a little much for him (6 million over 1 season is guaranteed). They could have found a cheaper #3 receiver. In 2 years as a key contributor for the Steelers in 2012 and 2013, including a starting role in 2013, Sanders graded out very middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus, grading out 57th and 60th respectively among wide receivers, while averaging 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run. He’s an upgrade over Andre Caldwell as the 3rd receiver in Denver after Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, but this is an overpay.

Grade: C

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Detroit Lions sign WR Golden Tate

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Lions, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Golden Tate has never had a 1000 yard season, but there’s an argument to be made that he’s a better wide receiver than Eric Decker. His numbers have been kept down by a run heavy offense, but he’s averaged 1.80 and 2.01 yards per route run in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Compare that to 1.80 and 2.03 for Eric Decker and they’re much more comparable than you think. Golden Tate also had a better 2011 season, when he was a 2nd year receiver with problems at the quarterback position, than Decker did in 2011, when he also was a 2nd year receiver with problems at the quarterback position. Golden Tate averaged 1.33 yards per route run, as opposed to 1.28 yards per route run for Decker.

Now take into account that Eric Decker has 29 drops compared to 216 catches (1 drop every 7.45 catches), while Golden Tate has 5 drops compared to 144 catches (1 drop every 28.8 catches) and that, as good as Russell Wilson is, Golden Tate was playing with the inferior passing quarterback between the two. Eric Decker got 36.25 million over 5 years (with 15 million over 2 years guaranteed), while Golden Tate got 31 million over 5 years (with 13.25 million over 2 years guaranteed), which is more reasonable.

Tate moves from one of the run heaviest offenses in the NFL to one of the pass heaviest in Detroit and Matt Stafford isn’t really a downgrade from Russell Wilson as a pure passing quarterback. He’ll have an opportunity to run 600 pass routes opposite Calvin Johnson, see single coverage with regularity, and get his first 1000 yard season. The pass heavy Lions were incredibly thin at wide receiver after Calvin Johnson and were able to upgrade their passing attack tremendously with this move. It’s a reasonable value and a good use of the Lions’ limited cap space.

Grade: A-

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New York Jets sign WR Eric Decker

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jets, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Eric Decker is going to get a massive downgrade at the quarterback position going from Peyton Manning to Michael Vick/Geno Smith. The last time he played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 82nd ranked wide receiver out of 115 eligible and averaged just 1.28 yards per route run, 65th out of 95 eligible. That was in 2011 with the combination of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton, which is comparable to what Decker will be dealing with in New York.

That being said, it’s unfair to suggest that he’ll just go back to his 2011 level of production, when he caught 44 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns. While much of his increased production since then is due to the arrival of Peyton Manning, he’s still an improved player over when he was in his 2nd year in the league in 2011, after being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010. He’s averaged 1.80 and 2.03 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons, grading out 36th and 11th in those two seasons respectively among wide receivers, peaking in his contract year.

He’s not a true coverage changing #1 receiver, he’s not overly explosive, and he drops too many passes (29 drops compared to 216 catches over the past 3 seasons). However, he is going to be easily the Jets’ best wide receiver this season, he’s the difference maker the Jets needed downfield, and he’s incredibly reliable around the goal line (32 touchdowns in the last 3 seasons, including 8 even in 2011).

After averaging 86 catches for 1176 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, Decker will probably have between 60-70 catches for 800-900 yards and 6-8 touchdowns next season, which is a significant upgrade over anything the Jets had from the wide receiver position last year. He’ll get 36.25 million over 5 years, including 15 million over 2 seasons guaranteed. His 7.25 million dollar average annual salary is 17th in the NFL, which is a slight overpay. However, it’s not a bad move for the wide receiver needy Jets.

Grade: B-

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