2009 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos, Uncategorized

1. Detroit Lions- QB Matt Stafford (Georgia)

If the Lions had to do it all over again, I don’t think they’d change anything here. After some early career injury problems, Stafford has played all 48 games in the past 3 seasons, completing 60.7% of passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 90 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions. The Lions still have a lot to build around him, but the quarterback position is the most important one and a franchise quarterback is always worth the #1 pick. That’s what Stafford has been.

2. St. Louis Rams- OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia)

The Rams took Jason Smith here #2 overall and he ended up being one of the being busts of the draft. They had the position right though. Orlando Pace was heading into the final year of his career, which he played in Chicago, so the Rams desperately needed a replacement. Monroe went 8th overall originally, but he could easily go even earlier the 2nd time around considering he’s blossomed into one of the best left tackles in the game. He’s graded out 6th, 15th, and 16th among eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively.

3. Kansas City Chiefs- OLB Clay Matthews (USC)

The Chiefs took Tyson Jackson here originally. Adding to the front 7 was the right call considering the Chiefs had just 10 sacks the entire season the year before, the fewest by an NFL team ever. However, Jackson never really developed into much more than a strong run stuffer. Tamba Hali, who led the 2008 Chiefs with 3 sacks, eventually developed into one of the better edge rushers in the NFL and the Chiefs drafted Justin Houston in the 3rd round in 2011 to give them a feared duo of edge rushers. However, adding Matthews would have given them that even sooner.

4. Seattle Seahawks- DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)

The Seahawks have a great pass rush now, but that wasn’t always the case. In 2008, the Seahawks’ top-3 defensive ends were Patrick Kerney, who was going into his age 33 season, Lawrence Jackson, a massive bust as a 1st rounder in 2008, and Darryl Tapp, a decent veteran who they would eventually trade to the Eagles for Chris Clemons. Clemons’ addition would give them a feared edge rusher later, but pairing him with Brian Orakpo would have given them one of the NFL’s best pass rushes very quickly.

5. New York Jets- RB LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh)

The Jets knew they needed to address the running back position in 2009, as they drafted Shonn Greene in the 3rd round. Thomas Jones was heading into his age 31 season in 2009. Greene wasn’t terrible, but having LeSean McCoy would have been much better. In 5 seasons, McCoy has 7600 yards from scrimmage and 49 touchdowns, while Greene has 4239 yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns, about half of McCoy’s production. The Jets are unfortunately unable to address the quarterback position here because Stafford was the only good one to come out of this draft, but drafting McCoy 5th would have been much better than using this pick on Mark Sanchez and taking Greene in the 3rd.

6. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech)

The Bengals eventually took Michael Johnson in the 3rd round, but they have to take him earlier here to keep him around. Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, earning the franchise tag, and then was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 4-3 defensive end this season. He’ll get a good amount of money on his next contract. The other option here would be for the Bengals to just draft Andre Smith again as he’s been very good for them at right tackle in recent years, but I think Johnson has been the more important player for them.

7. Oakland Raiders- S Jairus Byrd (Oregon)

Safeties rarely go in the top-10, but that’s because if they don’t become Pro-Bowl caliber players, they’re almost automatically busts. Getting a just solid starter at safety out of a top-10 pick is a failure. However, with complete hindsight, we know that Byrd has become one of the best safeties in the league and even one of the best defensive players at any position. Byrd was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety in 2011 and 2nd ranked in 2012. He ranked 8th in 2013, which wasn’t as good, but he missed a few games with injury to start the year so that had something to do with it. Upon his return, he was just as good as he was before the injury. The Bills now have a choice between franchise tagging him for the 2nd straight year or letting him hit the open market, where he could become the highest paid safety in the NFL. Either way, he’ll get paid. As for the Raiders, they needed all the talent they could get at this point. Drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey here didn’t help. The Raiders would eventually take Michael Mitchell in the 2nd round, but he never developed into the starting safety they wanted him to be.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- CB Lardarius Webb (Nicholls State)

The Jaguars felt the need for a cornerback in 2009, drafting Derek Cox in the 3rd round. He flashed at times, but wasn’t nearly the player they wanted him to be.  Lardarius Webb is much better. Webb was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2011 and has been an above average player in all 5 seasons of his career, though he was derailed by a torn ACL in 2012. He wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2011 this year, grading out 21st, but there’s a very good chance he could once again be a top-10 cornerback again in 2014, another year removed from that injury.

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9. Green Bay Packers- RB Arian Foster (Tennessee)

The Packers have been searching for a talented running back to complement their talented passing game for years, finally finding Eddie Lacy in 2013. Arian Foster could have solved the problem a lot faster. He’s had some injury problems of late, but he’s still totaled 6777 yards from scrimmage and 52 touchdowns in 5 seasons. Imagine him and Aaron Rodgers in the same backfield.

10. San Francisco 49ers- WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)

This is one where the pick doesn’t change. Michael Crabtree took a little bit to come around, but he had his first 1000+ yard season in 2012, catching 85 passes for 1105 yards and 9 touchdowns. He missed 11 games and was limited in the others after tearing an Achilles in 2013, but he showed enough down the stretch to suggest he should make a full recovery for 2014. Colin Kaepernick loves throwing to him and he’s the 49ers’ #1 receiver. They don’t let him get away here.

11. Buffalo Bills- OLB Brian Cushing (USC)

The Bills needed another linebacker other than Paul Posluszny going into the 2009 season. Cushing would be a great fit because he’s scheme versatile and the Bills have run both a 3-4 and 4-3 defense over the past 5 years. Cushing has had a lot of issues with injuries, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2009 (when he won Defensive Rookie of the year) and 3rd ranked middle linebacker in 2011. He’d be an obvious upgrade over Keith Ellison and Kawika Mitchell, who were their other starting linebackers at the time.

12. Denver Broncos- DT Henry Melton (Texas)

It’s amazing that the Broncos are going to the Super Bowl considering how bad Josh McDaniels messed things up in just 2 years there. It’s a huge credit to Peyton Manning and the new front office and coaching staff. The Broncos desperately needed front 7 help in 2009, but drafted just one front 7 player, outside linebacker Robert Ayers who never fit the scheme and has been a bust. They took Knowshon Moreno here and even to today he hasn’t proven to be worth a first round pick. Henry Melton would have been a much better pick to fix the defensive tackle position, their biggest need. He was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 7th ranked in 2012, before tearing his ACL in 2013 after being franchise tagged.

13. Washington Redskins- OT Andre Smith (Alabama)

The Redskins would take Trent Williams 4th overall in 2010 and he’s been a fantastic player for them, but they needed help at both offensive tackle positions and Andre Smith could be a strong right tackle for them. The right tackle position is still a problem to this day, as the Redskins’ trade for Jammal Brown never panned out. Smith struggled to start his career, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked offensive tackle in 2011, 4th ranked in 2012, and 20th ranked in 2013.

14. New Orleans Saints- DE Michael Bennett (Texas A&M)

Not enough people know about Michael Bennett. Bennett has been Pro Football Focus’ 7th, 7th, and 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end from 2011-2013 respectively. He has the versatility to play both inside and outside and can both rush the passer and stop the run at a high rate. He would have been a very valuable complement for Will Smith in New Orleans and helped a pass rush that was, for years, much in need, really up until this season.

15. Houston Texans- CB Vontae Davis (Illinois)

The Texans used to have serious secondary problems. They drafted Kareem Jackson in the 1st round in 2010, but Davis would have solved the problem even quicker and could have formed a very formidable duo with Jackson in a couple of years. That would have allowed the Texans to avoid paying Johnathan Joseph a massive sum of money to be their other starting cornerback. Davis has been inconsistent in his career, struggling with injuries at times and getting traded to the Colts for a 2nd and 6th round pick, but he is coming off of a fantastic contract year. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback this season and was also 12th in 2010.

16. San Diego Chargers- S Glover Quin (New Mexico)

The Chargers have been in need of safety help for years. They’ve never really replaced Rodney Harrison. Eric Weddle is a fantastic player, but they need another safety opposite him. Glover Quin struggled early in his career, but has turned it around big time since moving to safety. He was a solid starter in Houston at safety for 2 years and then signed a 5-year deal last off-season with the Lions, where he had arguably the best season of his career in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety.

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17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- WR Mike Wallace (Mississippi)

The Buccaneers desperately need wide receiver help in the 2009 draft. Antonio Bryant was their leading receiver in 2008 and no one else had more than 484 yards. As good as Bryant was that season, he was out of the league in 2 years for a variety of reasons. They added Kellen Winslow before the 2009 season and he led the team in receiving yardage in 2009, but they needed help on the outside. They’d eventually use 2nd and 4th round picks of Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams in 2010, but this would have been a better way to go.

18. Denver Broncos- CB Jason McCourty (Rutgers)

As I mentioned the Broncos really messed up the 2009 draft. Even though they had 2 first round picks and 5 picks in the first two rounds, Knowshon Moreno is the only player of substance they drafted. I addressed the front 7 with the 12th pick, but they also had a need in the secondary. The Broncos traded a future first round pick for Alphonso Smith, but that didn’t work out as Smith never developed into a starter and that future first round pick turned into Earl Thomas, one of the best safeties in the game. McCourty solves the problem a lot better. He’s been a top-10 cornerback on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, though much of his positive grade comes against the run.

19. Philadelphia Eagles- WR Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)

Jeremy Maclin never turned into the 1000+ yard receiver the Eagles were hoping he would, but he still had 258 catches for 3453 yards and 26 touchdowns from 2009-2012, before tearing his ACL and missing the entire 2013 season. Still, he’s expected to make a full recovery and the Eagles still have interest in bringing him back on a one year deal. I have to think that, if given the chance, they’d take Maclin once again in this situation.

20. Detroit Lions- CB Keenan Lewis (Oregon State)

The Lions went 0-16 the year prior to the 2009 NFL Draft so they really had needs at every position. Cornerback was a big one as they allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt in 2008, not only the most in the NFL that season, but most seasons. Keenan Lewis has graded out above average in back-to-back seasons since becoming a starter in 2012, grading out 40th and 26th on Pro Football Focus. He’s probably the best available left here.

21. Cleveland Browns- C Alex Mack (California)

Here’s another team that stays with their original pick. The Browns drafted Alex Mack in the first round in 2009. It was a risky proposition, even though he was widely considered one of the top center prospects of the decade, because they would need him to emerge as a perennial Pro-Bowler. If he was just an average starter, he would have been a bust because center isn’t that valuable of a position. However, he’s been top-10 on Pro Football Focus among centers in all 5 seasons, so he’s been well worth this pick.

22. Minnesota Vikings- WR Percy Harvin (Florida)

Percy Harvin’s tenure in Minnesota was up and down. He never went over 1000 receiving yards despite getting the lion’s share of the targets and he also missed 10 games in 4 seasons, but he was an explosive all-purpose weapon, returning kicks and carrying the ball, in addition to his work as a receiver, despite working with terrible quarterbacks for the most part. In his final 25 games with the team, he averaged 83.4 yards from scrimmage per game and also got the Vikings a 1st round pick in return when they traded him to the Seahawks. I think they’d do it all over again in this situation.

23. Baltimore Ravens- OT Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma)

The Ravens originally drafted Michael Oher here and he started for 5 seasons for them on the offensive line, playing both left tackle and right tackle. However, he was very inconsistent and had a terrible year in 2013, grading out 68th out of 76 eligible offensive tackles on a terrible Baltimore offense. Phil Loadholt would have been a better fit. He’s broken out as a great right tackle over the past few years, grading out 24th, 22nd, and 10th on Pro Football Focus among offensive tackles from 2011-2013 respectively.

24. Atlanta Falcons- DE Paul Kruger (Utah)

The Falcons have been struggling for pass rush for years. They’ve been looking for a complement for John Abraham for years, using a 4th round pick in 2009, a 5th round pick in 2012, and a 4th and 5th round pick on defensive ends, as well as giving a large contract to Ray Edwards that was a huge failure. Paul Kruger would solve that problem, a problem that was especially bad over the past season with John Abraham gone.

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25. Miami Dolphins- G Louis Vasquez (Texas Tech)

The Dolphins have had needs on the offensive line for years. Louis Vasquez is too good to pass on here. He’s graded out above average in all 5 seasons on Pro Football Focus that he’s been in the league and would be a real asset on the offensive line. He maxed out at 3rd overall among guards on Pro Football Focus in 2013. If they had him, they never would have needed to bring in Richie Incognito.

26. Green Bay Packers- DT BJ Raji (Boston College)

The Packers originally drafted BJ Raji 9th overall. He hasn’t been quite that good because he’s been very inconsistent, but he was an integral part of their Super Bowl team so they’d probably want to hang on to him here with their 2nd pick in the first round. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013 and last ranked defensive tackle in 2011, but he was also their 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012 and 28th ranked defensive tackle in 2010.

27. Indianapolis Colts- G Andy Levitre (Oregon State)

The Colts have needed offensive line help dating back to the Peyton Manning days and grab one of this draft class’ many talented interior offensive linemen here. Andy Levitre has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 4 straight seasons as a starter, grading out 6th, 9th, and 13th in 2011-2013 respectively. He became one of the league’s highest paid interior linemen before the 2013 season, when he signed a 6 year, 46.8 million dollar deal with the Titans, leaving Buffalo.

28. Buffalo Bills- OT Sebastian Vollmer (Houston)

The Bills acquired this pick from the Eagles for Jason Peters, but they didn’t replace the left tackle, opting instead for center Eric Wood, who has been just alright. Vollmer would be an upgrade on the blindside over the terrible Demetress Bell, who took over for Peters. Bell was eventually replaced by Cordy Glenn, who has done a solid job over the past 2 seasons, but Vollmer and Glenn would form quite a tandem today if they had drafted both of them.

29. New York Giants- WR Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina)

Hakeem Nicks has had a bunch of injury problems in his tenure in New York, missing 10 games and being limited in countless others, but he’s overall had a solid 5 years, catching 311 passes for 4622 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Giants are probably moving on from him this off-season, but I think, given their current choices, they’d do it all again with Nicks, who had 2 seasons of 1000+ yards and was an integral part of their Super Bowl team.

30. Tennessee Titans- C Max Unger (Oregon)

The Titans take another one of this draft class’ talented interior linemen. They’ve had issues at the center position since Kevin Mawae retired following the 2009 season. Unger could play guard for a season until then and then move to center, where he’s been one of the NFL’s best over the past few years. He had some issues with injuries in 2013, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked center in 2012.

31. Arizona Cardinals- G Alex Boone (Ohio State)

Alex Boone took an interesting road to the 49ers’ starting lineup. He went undrafted in 2009 because of concerns about his alcohol abuse, after he was arrested for DUI, jumping on car hoods, yanking on a tow truck cable, and trying to break a window. The 49ers snatched him up as an undrafted free agent and he got his life clean, moving into the starting lineup in 2012. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard that season and even though he struggled through injuries in 2013, he’s still worth a pick here, especially for an Arizona team that has been hurting for offensive line help for years.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers- DE Desmond Bryant (Harvard)

The Steelers originally used this draft pick on Ziggy Hood, a collegiate defensive tackle converted to 5-technique defensive end in Pittsburgh. Hood struggled through weight problems though and was largely a bust. Here they do the same thing with Bryant, a much better player. Bryant was very good on the defensive line for the Raiders in 2011 and 2012, playing both defensive end and defensive tackle, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked defensive tackle in 2012. He wasn’t quite as good in 2013, struggling through injuries, but he’s still worth this pick.

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Atlanta Falcons 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Falcons, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Falcons were definitely going to regress this season. The average 13-win team wins 9.5 games the following season. The Falcons played just 2 eventual playoff teams in 2012 and went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had an unsustainable +13 turnover margin, which was powered by an unsustainable 64.3% fumble recovery rate. They also had significant off-season losses. They lost their best two defensive linemen, John Abraham and Vance Walker, and only replaced them with an aging Osi Umenyiora. They lost two offensive line starters and had just two players playing in their 2012 spot on the line. The switch from Michael Turner to Steven Jackson appeared to be an upgrade, but with Jackson heading into his 30s, it was tough to expect much.

However, the Falcons regressed in a way that no one saw coming. They went from 13 wins to 4 wins as injuries ravaged the team. Sean Weatherspoon, Sam Baker, Kroy Biermann, and Julio Jones all missed significant time with injury, while Roddy White was limited by lower body injuries all season. Steven Jackson also missed significant time with injury and struggled when he did play, showing his age. White and Jackson were a part of a group of 30+ veterans who disappointed on this team, including Asante Samuel, Stephen Nicholas, and Osi Umenyiora, all of whom were benched at one point or another.

Baker and Weatherspoon also struggled when they were in the lineup, hurting their linebacking corps and offensive line significantly. The former unit was forced to rely significantly on two undrafted rookies, Joplo Bartu and Paul Worillow, while the latter saw two 2nd year players, Lamar Holmes and Peter Konz, play among the worst in the league at their respective positions. Add in a disappointing year from safety Thomas DeCoud and you had a team that had little around the quarterback position.

It’s very hard for a team to win just 4 games with a strong quarterback and Matt Ryan is not to blame, as he completed 67.4% of his passes for 6.94 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him. However, the Falcons had ones of the worst defenses in the NFL, struggling in all facets and the only thing that worked on the offensive side was the passing game, as they were unable to pass protect or establish anything on the ground.

The good news is that things should turn around in 2014. Teams that see significant drops in win totals often rebound and wind up, on average, right in the middle of their strong season and their bad season. That would put the Falcons at 8 or 9 wins, which isn’t hard to imagine given their recent history of success. They should have significantly fewer injuries and they have plenty of cap space to build their roster. They also have the 6th overall pick in the draft to add a much needed cheap blue chip. Also, things that are usually kind to the Falcons were not in 2014. They went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less and their turnover margin was -7 as they forced just 21 takeaways. Those things should turn around in 2014 and allow this team to compete for a playoff spot.

Positional Needs

Defensive End

Maybe edge rusher is a better term here because Mike Nolan will want someone who is versatile enough to play in all schemes. The Falcons had just 32 sacks this season, which ranked tied for 3rd worst in the NFL, and they are Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked team in terms of pass rush. Osi Umenyiora was their big free agent pass rusher signing, but he was benched towards the end of the season and he’s unlikely to be brought back next season, owed 3.5 million dollars in his age 33 contract year. They need at least one, if not two new starters at defensive end/edge rusher. Jadeveon Clowney or Anthony Barr could be very intriguing at #6.

Defensive Tackle

The Falcons top-3 defensive tackles are all free agents this off-season and the odds are against them bringing all 3 of Jonathan Babineaux, Corey Peters, and Peria Jerry back. Even if they do, Babineaux is heading into his age 33 season, while Jerry, a 2009 1st round pick, has been a complete bust and is barely a rotational caliber player at this point in his career. Corey Peters, meanwhile, played well this season, but was terrible in 2012 so he’s tough to trust.

Offensive Tackle

The Falcons gave Sam Baker a 6 year, 41.1 million dollar deal last off-season after the 2008 1st rounder had a strong contract year. The first year of that deal went as bad as it possibly could have. Baker’s tendency to get injured returned and he played just 190 snaps. He was horrific on those 190 snaps, allowing a sack, 7 hits, and 12 hurries. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse than him on Pro Football Focus in either overall grade or pass blocking grade. Despite such limited snaps, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th worst ranked offensive tackle overall.

He’ll be back next season because he still has guaranteed money left on his deal and cutting him would cost 9.2 million on the cap. However, they need help opposite him. Lamar Holmes, a 2012 3rd round pick, has been awful this far in his career. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked offensive tackle in 2013, allowing 10 sacks, 13 hits, and 53 hurries, while committing 12 penalties. He could still turn it around, but given that he was just a 3rd round pick, it’s looking unlikely. They can’t let him come into 2014 as the uncontested starting right tackle.

Tight End

Tony Gonzalez is retiring, at least for now. The Falcons need a new tight end to replace him. Levine Toilolo, a 2013 4th round pick, was their 2nd string tight end last season, but he only played 198 snaps because the Falcons almost never use two-tight end sets, catching 11 passes for 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s a decent blocker and goal line weapon, but I don’t know if he’s a good enough receiver to be a #1 tight end. They should bring someone else into the mix.

Guard

Left guard Justin Blalock was their only good offensive lineman in 2013. They need help at right guard opposite him. Garrett Reynolds has been very inconsistent in his career and was benched last season for Joe Hawley, who took over at center, moving Peter Konz to right guard. Konz was horrible at right guard, just as he was at center. They need to bring in competition for Reynolds, as Hawley, a decent reserve, is a free agent this off-season.

Center

Peter Konz has been a complete bust in 2 years since being a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He was Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked guard in 2012. In 2013, he started the season at center, his collegiate position, but struggled and moved back to right guard. Despite splitting time at the two positions, he was still both Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked center and their 68th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. They need to bring in some competition for him.

Running Back

The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, but Jackson didn’t prove to be much of an upgrade. Jackson fell off a cliff, rushing for a career low 543 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He only played 12 games and had just 157 carries. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he had 2396 carries going into his age 30 season in 2013. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons can get out of his contract fairly easily and replace him, but even if they don’t, they need a running back for the future as Jackson is heading into his age 31 season.

Cornerback

The Falcons used 1st and 2nd round picks on cornerbacks in 2013 NFL Draft, taking Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, but they might still need help at the position this off-season. Asante Samuel is expected to be a cap casualty, while Robert McClain is a free agent. If they don’t retain him, they’ll need to get someone to replace him.

Middle Linebacker

Paul Worrilow took over as the starting middle linebacker as an undrafted rookie this season. He wasn’t terrible, but he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 41st ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. The Falcons do seem to like him so he’ll probably be back as the starter next season, but it might not be a bad idea to get a cheap veteran backup just in case he continues to struggle.

Safety

Thomas DeCoud had an awful 2013 season in the 2nd year of his 5-year deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked safety. The Falcons can save a good amount on the cap and 11.2 million in cash over the next 3 seasons by cutting him. If they cut him, they’ll need to find some sort of replacement. Perhaps 2013 undrafted rookie Zeke Motta can be that guy and they might just keep DeCoud as a veteran presence in hopes that he turns it around with so many needs. That’s why it’s at the bottom on this list.

Key Free Agents

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Babineaux has played in 138 games for the Falcons, missing a combined 4 over the past 6 seasons, since being taken in the 2nd round in 2005 out of Iowa. Since Pro Football Focus’ first season in 2008, Babineaux has graded out above average in all 6 seasons, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2009 and grading out 13th as recently as 2011. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 33 season this off-season so he’ll probably be looking at short-term deals, but he should still be able to get 3-5 million dollars per year.

DT Corey Peters

A 3rd round pick in 2010, Corey Peters has been a pretty inconsistent player thus far in his career, playing significant amounts of snaps in all 4 seasons and alternating between below average and above average seasons on Pro Football Focus. For example, in 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked defensive tackle, but in 2013, he graded out 30th and significantly above average. He’ll get a decent amount of money on a 3 or 4 year deal going into the prime of his career. Of the Falcons’ 3 free agents at defensive tackle, Peters should be their #1 priority because of his combination of youth and talent.

CB Robert McClain

Robert McClain broke out as the nickel back in 2012 for the Falcons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked cornerback. He wasn’t nearly as good in 2013, grading out right around average, playing about half the snaps, but he still should be retained because he’s one of the few talented young players the Falcons have. He should get a bigger role in 2014.

DT Peria Jerry

Peria Jerry has been a complete bust as a 2009 1st round pick. 2010 was the only season he graded out above average and he did that on 213 snaps. 2013 was his worst season as he played a career high 678 snaps and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked defensive tackle. He’s looking at rotational work on a one year deal at best this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Asante Samuel

Asante Samuel is going into his age 33 season and he’s as good as gone after getting moved down to 4th string behind rookies Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford late last season. Samuel is owed 4.5 million in salary and bonuses in 2014 in his contract year and the Falcons can save 4.5 million on the cap by letting him go.

DE Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is another veteran who is as good as gone. Umenyiora was their big pass rush signing last off-season and though he led the team with 7 sacks, he still wasn’t as good as they needed him to be and they benched him down the stretch to evaluate younger players. The Falcons can save both 3.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go, as he heads into his age 33 season.

RB Jason Snelling

Jason Snelling was arrested this season and the Falcons have generally displayed a no tolerance policy in the past in terms of players with off the field run ins. Given that, it’s pretty safe to assume that Snelling will be cut, saving 1.375 million in cash and cap space. He’s also going into his age 31 season in 2014 and had just 44 carries in an underwhelming backfield in 2013, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

OLB Stephen Nicholas

Stephen Nicholas has been jumped on the depth chart by two undrafted rookies Paul Worrilow and Joplo Bartu and played just 132 snaps in 2013, the 3rd year of a 5 year deal. The Falcons can save a combined 7.5 million in cash in 2014 and 2015 and 2 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season, as he goes into his age 31 season.

OLB Kroy Biermann

Kroy Biermann missed most of last season with injury and has yet to establish himself as an impact edge rusher. The Falcons can save 3.05 million on the cap next season and in cash by cutting him, but they may keep him around because of how thin they are at edge rusher.

RB Steven Jackson

The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, but Jackson didn’t prove to be much of an upgrade. Jackson fell off a cliff, rushing for a career low 543 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He only played 12 games and had just 157 carries. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he had 2396 carries going into his age 30 season in 2013. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons can get out of his contract fairly easily, saving about 1.8 million on next year’s cap in the process, if they choose.

S Thomas DeCoud

Thomas DeCoud had an awful 2013 season in the 2nd year of his 5-year deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked safety. The Falcons can save a 3 million on the cap and 11.2 million in cash over the next 3 seasons by cutting him. They also might just keep DeCoud as a veteran presence in hopes that he turns it around with so many needs.

TE Tony Gonzalez

This is just formality as Gonzalez is technically under contract for 2014 at the salary of 7 million. He’s expected to retire, however, so the Falcons won’t technically have to cut him to realize savings of 7 million in cash and cap space. Gonzalez will now sit and wait for the Hall of Fame to call, though he did leave the window open for him to return mid-season to a contender in 2014.

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Oakland Raiders 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Raiders, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

Before Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen came in, the Raiders were one of the most poorly run franchises in football, towards the end of the Al Davis era and ensuing Hue Jackson era, which saw him trade a 1st and 2nd round pick for Carson Palmer weeks after Davis’ death. As a result, the Raiders had over 56 million in dead money on their cap. Before they drafted DJ Hayden, the Raiders had just two of their first round picks on their roster, Darren McFadden and Sebastian Janikowski, a kicker and a running back who got benched mid-season. Of their top-10 cap numbers, only three of them were actually on the roster this season. Two of those would be McFadden and Janikowski and the other would be Tyvon Branch, who missed most of the season with injury.

Fortunately, the light at the end of the tunnel is near. The Raiders wisely kept both Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen despite back-to-back 4-12 seasons, recognizing there wasn’t much they could do. McKenzie and Allen did a good job and getting good seasons out of cheap free agents like Pat Sims, Tony Pashos, Vance Walker, Mike Jenkins, and Charles Woodson. It might sound crazy, but the Raiders overachieved by winning 4 games last season and McKenzie and Allen deserve credit for that. This team was literally working with half of the financial resources of most teams last year, but now they have about 66 million in cap space with all the dead money off their cap. They basically have to start from the ground floor with this roster this off-season, but they have the financial resources to build it up in a hurry.

They’ll have to go into this off-season by identifying building blocks. Jared Veldheer and Lamarr Houston are both building blocks and need to be re-signed this off-season, even if it means overpaying them on frontloaded deals. Defensive tackles Pat Sims and Vance Walker both showed promise this season and should be brought back on multi-year deals. They have a decent young receiver corps. Center Stefen Wisniewski is also very good and the Raiders might be wise to lock up the 2011 2nd round pick long-term this off-season on an extension. Tyvon Branch is their highest paid player for 2014 and he’s pretty solid as well when healthy. Sio Moore showed a lot as a 3rd round rookie and they definitely shouldn’t give up on 1st round rookie DJ Hayden. They’ll have to build around those guys if they want to get out of their recent drought of success. Since losing the Super Bowl in the 2002 season, they are 53-123, by far the worst in the NFL.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

The Raiders are basically starting from the ground floor this off-season, but there isn’t a quicker way to turn the team around than by adding a franchise quarterback. The first round pick they used on JaMarcus Russell, the first and second round picks they traded for Carson Palmer, the 4th round pick they traded for Jason Campbell, the 3rd round pick they used on Terrelle Pryor, and the 4th round pick they used on Tyler Wilson were all for naught as the Raiders had to resort to undrafted rookie Matt McGloin to end the season.

McGloin did some nice things, completing 55.9% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but ultimately showed why no one used a draft pick on him a few months prior. He could be a nice backup going forward but nothing more. Terrelle Pryor, meanwhile, showed significant flaws as a passer and is not a real starting option going into his 4th season in the league. He completed 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback in terms of passing grade, and was ultimately benched for an undrafted rookie. The Raiders will be looking for quarterbacks early in the draft.

Defensive End

LaMarr Houston is one of the few building blocks the Raiders have. The converted defensive tackle has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th, 9th, and 11th ranked defensive end in the past 3 seasons respectively and has been well worth the 2nd round pick the Raiders used on him in 2010. The Raiders have literally unlimited cap space this off-season because their roster is so bare so there’s no excuse for not re-signing him, even if they have to overpay him on a front loaded deal with a significant cap number in the first season. Even if they do re-sign him, they have a huge need opposite him. Veteran journeyman Jason Hunter struggled mightily as the starter opposite him. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked 4-3 defensive end. Jadeveon Clowney is going to be awfully tempting for this team at #5 overall if he’s still there, in spite of the Raiders’ desperate need for a quarterback.

Defensive Tackle

The Raiders signed Vance Walker and Pat Sims to cheap one-year deals last off-season because they were so strapped for cap space. That worked out really well. Sims blossomed in his 6th year in the league as the 2008 3rd round pick out of Auburn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle. Walker, meanwhile, continued the solid play he displayed in Atlanta prior to coming to Oakland, grading out as above average. Unfortunately, both of them were on just one year deals so they’ll be free agents this off-season. If either isn’t re-signed, they’ll need to be replaced.

Guard

Tony Bergstrom was supposed to be a big part of the Raiders’ offensive line this year, but he missed the entire season with a foot injury and Lucas Nix had to step in for him. He might get another chance at a starting job in 2014, but he’s barely played in 2 years in the league and was only a 3rd round pick so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he never developed into a starter, especially as he’s already heading into his age 28 season. Lucas Nix was terrible in his absence, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard. Meanwhile, at the other guard position, Mike Brisiel is a poor fit for the blocking scheme and could be cut this off-season in an effort to save 1.15 million on next year’s cap and 11.55 in cash over the last 3 seasons. He’s going into his age 31 season.

Offensive Tackle

Jared Veldheer, Khalif Barnes, and Tony Pashos are the Raiders top-3 offensive tackles and all 3 are going to be free agents this off-season. Veldheer should be locked up long-term. Even though he missed most of the season with a torn triceps and struggled upon his return, he’s still a franchise left tackle at full strength. A 3rd round pick out of Hillsdale in 2010, Veldheer graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th and 12th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The Raiders are in no position to allow someone like that to leave.

Even if re-signed, they’ll need someone opposite him at right tackle. Tony Pashos was competent this season, after being out of the league in 2012, but he’s going into his age 34 season. Barnes, meanwhile, was awful this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 59th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible and he’s perennially among the worst ranked tackles in the NFL. 2013 2nd round pick Menelik Watson could be a long-term starting option, but the raw athlete struggled mightily in limited action as a rookie and might just be another Bruce Campbell.

Running Back

Darren McFadden has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 3 seasons since, he’s played a total of 29 games out of 48 and rushed for just 1700 yards and 11 touchdowns on 446 carries (3.8 yards per carry). This season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked running back.

Even with the big 2010 season, he’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 223 carries or 270 touches and in his 2nd straight season of sub-3.5 yards per carry, he was benched for backup Rashad Jennings following an injury. Jennings was much better, rushing for 733 yards on 163 carries (4.5 yards per carry) with 6 touchdowns and 36 catches for 292 yards. Both are free agents and the Raiders are much more likely to bring back Jennings as a lead back than McFadden, who is probably going to be playing football elsewhere in 2014. Jennings, however, should not be considered a sure bet lead back, as he’s never had more than 163 carries in a season, he’s missed 27 of 80 games in his career, and he’s rushed for 4.3 yards per carry in his career, including 2.8 yards per carry in 2012. And if both are gone, then this is a significant position of need.

Cornerback

The Raiders drafted DJ Hayden in the first round in 2013. That hasn’t worked out so far as he played just 353 snaps because of injury and was unable to crack the starting lineup, grading out well below average on Pro Football Focus. He should still be considered a big part of their future obviously, but they’ll need cornerback help after him as well. Both Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter were on just one year deals and are now free agents again. Jenkins was actually pretty decent and could be brought back, but Porter showed why he had to settle for a one year deal as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked cornerback this season.

Safety

Charles Woodson played decent football this season at free safety, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 38 season in 2014 so he obviously can’t be counted on long-term. Usama Young was his backup and he was actually very solid in limited action, which shouldn’t be surprising because he was actually a solid starter in Cleveland the year prior. However, he too is a free agent. The Raiders have so many needs that it might be a good idea to settle for bringing back either Woodson or Young or someone else on a cheap one year deal.

Key Free Agents

DE Lamarr Houston

LaMarr Houston is one of the few building blocks the Raiders have. The converted defensive tackle has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th, 9th, and 11th ranked defensive end in the past 3 seasons respectively and has been well worth the 2nd round pick the Raiders used on him in 2010. The Raiders have literally unlimited cap space this off-season because their roster is so bare so there’s no excuse for not re-signing him, even if they have to overpay him on a front loaded deal with a significant cap number in the first season.

OT Jared Veldheer

Even though he missed most of the season with a torn triceps and struggled upon his return, Jared Veldheer is still a franchise left tackle at full strength. A 3rd round pick out of Hillsdale in 2010, Veldheer graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th and 12th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The Raiders are in no position to allow someone like that to leave.

DT Pat Sims

Pat Sims was a largely irrelevant backup in Cincinnati to start his career, but the 2008 3rd round pick out of Auburn blossomed in his 6th season in the league in Oakland, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle, excelling against the run. The Raiders should try to keep him around as a potential building block for the future, but they shouldn’t overpay for him based on one strong season.

DT Vance Walker

A 7th round pick out of Georgia Tech, Vance Walker has emerged as a solid starter at defensive tackle over the past 2 seasons, first in Atlanta in 2012 and then in Oakland in 2013, where he was on a one year deal. He’s graded out above average in both seasons and has earned the right to get a multi-year deal worth in the range of 4-5 million dollars yearly with a decent sized signing bonus. The Raiders have a lot of cap space and would be wise to keep him in the fold.

RB Rashad Jennings

Rashad Jennings was a talented backup for Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville in 2009 and 2010 to start his career, after going in the 7th round in 2009. He rushed for 661 yards on 125 carries, an average of 5.3 yards per carry. However, in 2011, he missed the whole season with injury and only rushed for 2.8 yards per carry upon his return in 2012. The Jaguars let him go as a free agent and the Raiders snatched him out where he had, by far, his best season, rushing for 733 yards and 6 touchdowns on 163 carries, an average of 4.5 yards per carry, and adding 36 catches for 292 yards through the air, taking over for Darren McFadden mid-season. The Raiders could bring him back on a cheap deal to be their lead back, but they should be hesitant about putting too much faith in him, especially as he’s going into his age 29 season already.

RB Darren McFadden

Darren McFadden has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 3 seasons since, he’s played a total of 29 games out of 48 and rushed for just 1700 yards and 11 touchdowns on 446 carries (3.8 yards per carry). This season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked running back. Even with the big 2010 season, he’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 223 carries or 270 touches and in his 2nd straight season of sub-3.5 yards per carry, he was benched for backup Rashad Jennings following an injury. Jennings is much more likely to be brought back as a lead back than McFadden, who is probably done in Oakland. Perhaps he can reunite with former Head Coach Hue Jackson in Cincinnati, under whom he had that 2010 season.

CB Mike Jenkins

Mike Jenkins was a 1st round pick by the Cowboys in 2008 and actually made the Pro-Bowl in 2009, deservingly so, but he eventually washed out in Dallas, struggling and losing his starting job. He got another chance with the Raiders this season and wasn’t terrible, grading out only slightly below average. They could bring him back as a starter, but he’s probably looking at short-term deals wherever he goes.

S Charles Woodson

Charles Woodson actually wasn’t that bad this season, grading out only slightly below average. However, he’s going into his age 38 season in 2014 so there’s a very good chance the former Defensive Player of the Year and Heisman winner just hangs them up and waits for the Hall of Fame to call, which it will. If he decides to continue playing, he’ll be looking at one-year deals with little to no guaranteed money.

OT Tony Pashos

Tony Pashos was out of the league completely in 2012, but he actually played very well in 12 games in 2011 with the Browns, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked offensive tackle. Given that, it shouldn’t be that surprising that he was pretty competent this season on the right side in Oakland, but he’s going into his age 34 season in 2014 so it’s tough to trust him going forward. He’s probably looking at one year deals with an opportunity to compete for a starting job.

S Usama Young

Usama Young was a cheap young talented starter in Cleveland in 2012, so naturally they cut him, despite the fact that he was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked safety that season. The Raiders wisely snatched him up cheaply, but they didn’t play him enough. Brandian Ross played in Tyvon Branch’s absence this season and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked safety. Usama Young, meanwhile, played just 208 snaps for some reason. He graded out above average on those snaps though. I still believe he’s a starting caliber player if given a chance.

OT Khalif Barnes

Khalif Barnes was one of Pro Football Focus’ worst tackles in 2012, grading out 64th out of 80 eligible despite making just 9 starts at right tackle. In 2013, he was equally bad, grading out 59th out of 76 eligible in 11 starts on the blindside. When Jared Veldheer came back from injury, Barnes, not Tony Pashos, went to the bench. Barnes should be looking for swing tackle work this off-season.

CB Tracy Porter

Tracy Porter has fallen a long way from running back an interception for a touchdown to seal a victory over Peyton Manning and the Colts in February 2010. Porter struggled mightily in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible, allowing opponents to complete 71.2% of passes against him. He didn’t get a chance to redeem himself on a one year deal in Denver in 2012 because of an illness and he struggled mightily again in Oakland in 2013. He was Pro Football Focus’ 104th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible. He’ll have to wait a while for a team to call.

DE Jason Hunter

Jason Hunter was a veteran journeyman, but the Raiders gave him a chance to start because they were out of options and had very little cap space, in spite of the fact that didn’t play a snap in 2012 thanks to injury. He played exactly as he would have expected him to, generating just 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 12 hurries and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked 3-4 defensive end. He’ll be looking at situational role at the most this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

G Mike Brisiel

Brisiel has been talked about as a cap casualty for about a year. They signed him to a 5-year deal to be one of the lynchpins of their zone blocking scheme, but the zone blocking scheme was implemented poorly and thrown out. Brisiel was Pro Football Focus’ 8th worst ranked guard in 2012 and would have been cut if cutting him hadn’t come with a cap hit. Now they can cut him and save over a million in cap space and 11.55 million in cash over the next 3 seasons, as he goes into his age 31 season. They could easily cut him, but they actually might not. They aren’t pressed for cap space at all and Brisiel had a much better season this year than last year, grading out just below average. With the struggles of Lucas Nix last season, Brisiel is their best guard and they might not want to part ways.

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Cleveland Browns 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Browns, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Browns have been the picture of turmoil since returning to the NFL in the 1999 season. In that time period, they’ve had 7 different head coaches, 5 different general managers, 3 different principal owners, 20 different starting quarterbacks, and 0 playoff wins. They are about to get their 8th head coach and 21st starting quarterback in 2014. Obviously, the new starting quarterback is going to be necessary after they botched the Brandon Weeden pick, but I don’t understand why they felt the need to let 1st year head coach Rob Chudzinski go.

What exactly was he supposed to do with this team, especially after the Trent Richardson made Willis McGahee their starting running back? Chudzinski helped coax breakout years out of raw pass catchers Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron and at some point they need to make up their mind and value stability. Also, Chudzinski’s untimely firing gives the Browns a bad rep around the NFL and makes them a very unattractive destination for head coach candidates. Josh McDaniels, their #1 target, already turned them down while Adam Gase, their reported next target, seems to be hesitant. That hurts their long-term development as a franchise.

This season wasn’t all bad. I already mentioned the breakout years of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, but they also had a league leading 5 All-Pro players, Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Joe Haden, and TJ Ward. Those five were all deserving, but the problem is that two of them are free agents this off-season. The Browns undoubtedly won the Trent Richardson trade as they got the 26th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft for a guy who averaged 2.9 yards per carry with the Colts and lost his starting job to Donald Brown.

I haven’t given up on Richardson’s long-term potential and he could be much better in 2014 once he gets in better shape and more familiar with the Colts system, but the Browns are almost definitely going to come out winners at the end of the day. In hindsight, taking a running back that high in 2012, 3rd overall, was a dumb move regardless of his long-term ability so credit the Browns’ new regime for cutting bait before it was too late. The Browns have two first round picks to build around their core and if they can get the quarterback position solved, this team could get a lot better in a hurry.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

Drafting Brandon Weeden didn’t work out. In 2 seasons, the 22nd overall pick has completed 55.9% of his passes for an average of 6.53 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions. At least he’s young and has time to develop. Oh wait, he’s going to be 31 next season. Great job. The regime that drafted him is long gone and the Browns will almost definitely be looking at quarterbacks early in the draft, with two first round picks. Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer both did some nice things this season, but probably project as backups long-term. The Browns front office is reportedly very high on Johnny Manziel, so he could be the Browns next quarterback, their 21st since 1999.

Running Back

As I mentioned, the Browns undoubtedly won the Richardson trade. However, the Browns desperately need a new starting running back. Trading Trent Richardson forced them to sign Willis McGahee off the streets to be the new starting running back and the 32-year-old averaged 2.7 yards per carry and busted just 4 carries of 10 yards or more. He’s highly unlikely to play in the NFL next season and he wouldn’t be a starting option for the Browns anyway. They need an entirely new offensive backfield. Fortunately, they can draft a running back in the mid rounds and he’d probably be significantly better than Richardson.

Wide Receiver

Rob Chudzinski’s firing was especially strange considering he coached up the once raw Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron into two of the premier players at their positions in the NFL. However, they need a 3rd option and another wide receiver opposite Gordon. Greg Little was Pro Football Focus’ lowest ranked wide receiver by a wide margin, catching 46.6% of his targets, averaging 11.3 yards per catch, dropping 8 passes to 41 catches, and had a league worst 37.4 QB rating when thrown to. After 3 years in the league, it’s time to give up on him as a starting caliber player. Slot receiver Davone Bess also struggled this season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked wide receiver, catching 42 of 83 targets for an average of 8.6 yards per catch and dropping a whopping 14 passes. He could easily be cut.

Middle Linebacker

If the Browns want to go into a complete rebuild, they could cut D’Qwell Jackson. Jackson is a veteran leader, but he has a history of injury problems and is on the decline heading into his age 31 season and owed 6.7 million in 2014. The Browns can save 3.9 million on the cap by cutting Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Even if they don’t, they need to find some sort of upgrade over Craig Robertson, who ranked 52nd, including dead last in coverage. He surrendered two separate 100 yard receiving games to running backs Reggie Bush and Shane Vereen.

Cornerback

The Browns desperately need help opposite Joe Haden. Buster Skrine was Pro Football Focus’ 5th worst ranked cornerback, allowing 9 touchdowns through the air and missing 20 tackles, both worst at the position. Chris Owens did a decent job in limited action, but the career backup is a free agent. Leon McFadden was a 3rd round pick in 2013, but he struggled as a rookie. They shouldn’t give up on him, but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into a starter considering where he was drafted so they shouldn’t count on him either.

Safety

Tashaun Gipson was an undrafted free agent in 2012 and he unsurprisingly struggled in his first year as a starter in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked safety out of 86 eligible. He’s not terrible, but he could definitely be upgraded. This position becomes a much bigger position of need if they lost All-Pro TJ Ward to free agency, but my guess if they’ll franchise tag him. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety.

Guard

The Browns have a very solid offensive line, but their biggest hole, by far, is at right guard. Oniel Cousins and Shawn Lauvao split starts there this season and both were among the lowest ranked guards on Pro Football Focus despite their limited snaps. Grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 71st and 70th ranked guards out of 81 eligible. Lauvao is a free agent so they should take this opportunity to upgrade the position because Cousins is not a starting caliber player.

Center

Alex Mack is one of the top centers in the NFL, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked center last season and making the All-Pro team. This is how you have to hope it works out when you draft a center in the first round. Unfortunately, he’s a free agent this off-season and they can’t really franchise tag him because they’d be paying him like a tackle if they did that, far more than any other center in the NFL. If they can’t retain him, he’d have to be replaced.

Kicker

Billy Cundiff decently redeemed himself on a one year deal in Cleveland this year, after missing a chip shot to tie the AFC Championship in 2011 and going 7 of 12 and getting benched in 2012. He’s a free agent this off-season and will need to be replaced if he’s not retained.

Key Free Agents

S TJ Ward

TJ Ward blossomed into one of the top safeties in the NFL this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety and being named an All-Pro. That was perfect timing as the 2010 2nd round pick will be a free agent this off-season. Chances are he’ll never hit the open market because the Browns will franchise tag him worst case scenario. He’ll get a good payday either way. He has some history of injury issues, but he’s clearly one of the game’s premier safeties and would be deserving of a contract worth around 7 million per year over 5 years. That would put him among the games top safeties.

C Alex Mack

The Browns drafted Alex Mack in the first round in 2009. It was a risky proposition, even though he was widely considered one of the top center prospects of the decade, because they would need him to emerge as a perennial Pro-Bowler. If he was just an average starter, he would have been a bust because center isn’t that valuable of a position. Unfortunately, the Browns can’t really franchise tag him because they’d be paying him like a tackle if they did that, far more than any other center in the NFL. He could be elsewhere next year if he wants.

CB Chris Owens

Chris Owens, a 3rd round pick in 2009, has been a depth cornerback for the entirety of his career. He’s been a very solid reserve in Atlanta and Cleveland over the past two years. He should get a decent amount of money on a one year or two year deal to be a nickel back somewhere. Cleveland should considering bringing him back considering their cornerback issues.

K Billy Cundiff

Billy Cundiff decently redeemed himself on a one year deal in Cleveland this year, after missing a chip shot to tie the AFC Championship in 2011 and going 7 of 12 and getting benched in 2012. He hit 21 of 26 field goals this season

Cap Casualty Candidates

OLB Quentin Groves

Having Quentin Groves, a capable reserve in Arizona in 2012, as their 4th outside linebacker was kind of overkill for the Browns. Barkevious Mingo, Jabaal Sheard, and Paul Kruger make a very good trio so there’s no need for Groves. The Browns would save 1.1 million in cap space by releasing him, which makes a lot of sense considering he played just 53 snaps last season.

QB Jason Campbell

The Browns are likely going quarterback early in the draft and they won’t keep 4 quarterbacks on their roster. They can’t cut Brandon Weeden because there’s still guaranteed money on his contract so one of Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer is probably gone next season. Hoyer outplayed Campbell this season so Campbell is probably gone. Cutting him would save 2.25 million in cap space. Campbell turns 33 next season and completed 56.8% of his passes for an average of 6.36 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions this season. He’ll look to find backup work this off-season. He’s not a starting caliber quarterback at this point in his career.

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

If the Browns want to go into a complete rebuild, they could cut D’Qwell Jackson. Jackson is a veteran leader, but he has a history of injury problems and is on the decline heading into his age 31 season and owed 6.7 million in 2014. The Browns can save 3.9 million on the cap by cutting Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He struggled against the run. He had just 26 stops (tackles within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th down) on 437 snaps, a rate of 5.9% that was the 4th worst in the NFL at his position.

DE Ahtyba Rubin

The Browns can save 6.8 million on the cap by cutting Ahtyba Rubin in his contract year this season. He’s a solid player, but he’s below average as a pass rusher and probably not worth his cap number. The Browns have an excess of defensive line depth with Billy Winn and John Hughes to go with Phil Taylor and Desmond Bryant, fellow starters, so they can move on from him pretty easily. They could still keep him to maintain their depth.

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 NFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (14-4) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

I almost never go against the Seahawks at home and with good reason. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 39-19 ATS at home, including 23-11 ATS as home favorites. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 12-5 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.41 points per game at home since the start of last season and have a 16-1 record over that time span.

I went against the Seahawks at home last week because I thought the line was just too big and because teams tend to cover in the playoffs in same season, same site, non-divisional revenge games. Going against them at home didn’t end badly last week. I had my pick push because I got the Saints +8 and they lost by exactly 8, but if I had gotten it at +9.5, where it was right before the game, it would have been a win for me.

This week, the line isn’t nearly big enough. This line, at 3.5, essentially suggests that these two teams are even and that the Seahawks don’t have a significant home field advantage. You can argue the first one, but you can’t deny their home field advantage. The only way this line makes sense given the Seahawks’ home dominance is if the 49ers are 2-3 points better than the Seahawks on a neutral field.

Not only do I think that’s wrong, I think the Seahawks are the better team on a neutral field. The Seahawks move the chains at a 71.88% rate, as opposed to 66.87% for their opponents, a differential of 5.01%. The 49ers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 71.26% rate, as opposed to 68.02% for their opponents, a differential of 3.25%. That suggests that the Seahawks should be about 5 point favorites even before we factor in their crazy home field advantage. Home field advantage taken into account, the Seahawks should really be favored by 7.5 or 8 points, not 3.5. We’re getting significant line value with them.

The 49ers do have one trend working for them. Teams with 12+ wins are 39-11 ATS in the playoffs against teams with better record than them. However, there are definitely plenty of other things working against them. It’s also worth noting that no team since the 1992-1993 Bills have made the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl and they did it in an AFC that was much weaker than today’s NFC.

Finally, in spite of last week’s win in Carolina, the 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this year. They’ve gone 2-4 in games against teams that finished with 11 or more wins. The other 3 remaining playoff teams are a combined 9-6 (Seattle 4-2, New England 3-2, Denver 2-2). It’s been worse than that as Colin Kaepernick has really struggled in those 6 games.

The Carolina game was his best performance in that type of game this season, but he still just completed 53.3% of his passes. His highest completion percentage in those 6 games is still just 54.8%. In those 6 games total, he is 84 of 165 (50.9%) for 866 yards (5.24 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 194 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries. In his other 12 games, he’s 190 of 309 (61.5%) for 2745 yards (8.88 YPA), 19 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while rushing for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns on 67 carries. He’s already been destroyed twice in his young career in Seattle by scores of 42-13 and 29-3. This one might be a little closer, but I love getting Seattle at just -3.5.

Seattle Seahawks 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: High

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2013 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

One of the keys to successful handicapping of NFL games is to figure out which situations certain teams tend to do well in. This is easier when the team has had the same quarterback and/or head coach for a long time. Well we’re in year 13 of Tom Brady and this is exactly the type of situation in which the Patriots have dominated in the Tom Brady era. In his career, Tom Brady is 28-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his, including 6-1 in the post-season.

Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.5% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 71.8% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 29-9-1 ATS, including 18-5 ATS as underdogs. Brady and Belichick always bring their best for the best opponents and they’ll do the same this week. He’s already won straight up against Denver and New Orleans this year in this situation. This game will be tougher to win because it’s on the road, but we have 6 points to play with so they won’t need to win to cover.

The Patriots also dominate as an underdog in general with Tom Brady, going 30-15 ATS. That record gets even better when you add in games when the Patriots are favored by fewer than 3 points. Tom Brady is 42-17 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. Basically, in situations when Tom Brady just needs to win to cover, he’s almost automatic, which makes sense considering his absurd 166-50 career straight up record. And again, the Patriots won’t need to win to cover as they are 6 point underdogs. This is just the 10th time the Patriots have underdogs of 6 or more points with Tom Brady under center and the 2nd since 2003. They are 7-2 ATS in those previous 9 games.

I also have to bring up the Brady/Manning history as we go into Brady/Manning XV. Tom Brady has won 10 of the previous 14 matchups. That alone isn’t enough to prove that Tom Brady is the better quarterback (and can we stop the debate and just enjoy, they’re both 1st ballot Hall of Famers and you can’t prove definitively either one is better), but it’s worth noting. Having Bill Belichick on his side definitely helps. Belichick himself is 11-6 ATS and SU against Peyton Manning since taking over as the Patriots head coach in 2000, including 8-2 ATS as underdogs.

It’s also worth noting that Belichick has only once lost to Manning by more than 8 points, including 3 games without Brady. The Patriots in general have just 1 loss by more than 8 points since week 10 of the 2010 season, over 3 years ago. Considering this line is at 6, that’s pretty relevant. I obviously wish we were getting even more points, but I expect this to be a close game either way so getting 6 points is very valuable. Another weird trend that benefits the Patriots: teams with 12+ wins are 39-11 ATS in the playoffs against teams with better record than them.

There are some reasons to doubt the Patriots. In general, teams tend to struggle off of games in which they score 40+ points in the playoffs, going 3-14 ATS in that situation since 2002. The Patriots could be caught overconfident after running over Indianapolis last week. The Broncos have also won 7 of 9 games at home by double digits this year and are 12-5 ATS as home favorites over the past 2 seasons. Sure, the Chargers played within 7 points last week, but they didn’t really deserve to. Playing the Broncos close in Denver might be too big of a task, even for the Patriots.

Denver, of course, is also a very dominant football team. In fact, there’s still plenty of reason to believe they are the best in the NFL.  They move the chains at an 81.43% rate, as opposed to 71.84% for their opponents, a differential of 9.59% that not only ranks the best in the NFL out of the remaining 4 playoff teams, but also is better than any team that has been eliminated as well. I still think the Patriots are up to the challenge though and they have plenty supporting them, given their history in these types of situations. I’m very confident in the Patriots and grab them at +6 before you can’t. A heavy early public lean on New England is going to push the line down fast and already has started to in some places.

New England Patriots 31 Denver Broncos 30 Upset Pick +195

Pick against spread: New England +6

Confidence: High

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2013 Divisional Round Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Wild Card

Straight Up: 3-1

Against the Spread: 1-2-1

Pick of the Week: 0-0

High Confidence: 0-1

Medium Confidence: 0-0

Low Confidence: 0-0-1

No Confidence: 1-1

Upset Picks: 0-1

2013

Straight Up: 177-86-1 (.673)

Against the Spread: 147-108-9 (.576)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1

High Confidence: 24-9-1

Medium Confidence: 32-26

Low Confidence: 39-27-3

No Confidence: 42-40-4

Upset Picks: 27-30

Pre-season Prop Bets: 8-3

Rate of Moving the Chains – Conference Championship

stevenlourie 2013 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure).

I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns. These are the remaining playoff teams and how they stack up.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 461 74 65 28 1 28 81.43%
2 New England 401 50 83 20 9 41 74.67%
3 Seattle 320 43 80 19 5 38 71.88%
4 San Francisco 329 43 84 19 5 42 71.26%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Seattle 307 22 85 40 9 29 66.87%
2 San Francisco 320 33 92 32 14 28 68.02%
3 New England 354 38 85 33 17 29 70.50%
4 Denver 352 46 91 26 11 28 71.84%

 

Differential

Team
1 Denver 9.59%
2 Seattle 5.01%
3 New England 4.17%
4 San Francisco 3.25%

 

Projected Lines

DEN/NE 8.42
SEA/SF 4.76

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2014 Off-season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Jaguars, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

When the Jaguars started 0-8 with all 8 losses coming by double digits, it looked like they were on their way to all-time bad status and maybe a 0-16 season. They didn’t finish quite that bad, as they went 4-4 after the bye to finish 4-12, but I still think this was the worst team in the NFL. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits and their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49.

All those wins really did was play them out of the #1 pick when they’re the team that probably needed it the most because of their desperate need for a franchise quarterback. They’ll still be able to get a top level quarterback prospect at #3, but you obviously prefer to have the #1 pick. If they were to hit a homerun on a quarterback at 3 and get a young franchise quarterback, it would obviously go a long way towards repairing this franchise, as that’s the quickest way to turn around a team.

However, that’s far from their only problem. They need help on the offensive line and on defense. Gus Bradley did a solid job in his first year on the job coaching up some replacement level starters on defense like Sen’Derrick Marks, Alan Ball, and Will Blackmon, but he wasn’t working with much as this cupboard was left pretty bare by ex-GM Gene Smith. The good news is they’ll have among the most cap space in the league and can have even more if they cut a few underperforming veterans. The problem is that Jacksonville has never been a prime destination for free agents and with the team in shambles, that won’t change.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

Blaine Gabbert was a JaMarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf level bust as the 10th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s made 27 starts in 3 years, won 5 of them, while completing 53.3% of his passes for 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 66.4. He doesn’t even resemble an NFL backup at this point. Chad Henne was the starter for the majority of the 2013 season, leading one of the NFL’s worst offenses and completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He could be a solid backup somewhere, but he has more career interceptions (62) than touchdowns (55). The Jaguars have reportedly been scouting quarterbacks all season and that’s almost certainly where they’re going at the top of the draft. There might not be a team that needs one more.

Defensive End

The Jaguars had a league worst 31 sacks this season and sack leader Jason Babin is unlikely to be back next season, owed 6 million in his age 34 season. That would leave Andre Branch and Tyson Alualu on the outside, both of whom are solid run stoppers that can’t do anything as pass rushers. They need a dominant edge rusher.

Running Back

Maurice Jones-Drew is a free agent heading into his age 29 season. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be back. The Jaguars want to get younger at the position and MJD will want to go to a contender and somewhere where he’ll have more help. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in 2013 and has scored just 6 times in the last 2 seasons as a result of the lack of talent around him.

Guard

Will Rackley at left guard is a disgrace. The 2011 3rd round pick was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked guard in 2011, missed the entire 2012 season, and was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked guard in 2013. Mike Brewster filled in for him from time to time this season and wasn’t terrible, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst guard in more significant action in 2012, so I don’t know how much you can trust him.

Offensive Tackle

The Jaguars drafted Luke Joeckel 2nd overall in 2013 to build around the quarterback position. He and Eugene Monroe appeared to make offensive tackle the strength of the team. However, Monroe was traded mid-season in his contract year, while Joeckel struggled before breaking his ankle and going on injured reserve. Joeckel will be back at left tackle next season, but they need someone to bookend him. Cameron Bradfield, who played both right and left tackle this season, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked offensive tackle. He’s a free agent anyway. Austin Pasztor filled in at right tackle and he wasn’t much better. It’s part of the reason why they allowed 50 sacks, 2nd worst in the NFL.

Center

Brad Meester has retired so the Jaguars will need a new center. Mike Brewster and Will Rackley are both internal options, but they’ve both struggled mightily thus far in their career. Either one of them could be better at center, but they should probably bring someone else in this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

Gus Bradley did a good job of coaching up Sen’Derrick Marks this season and the Jaguars extended him. They need help next to him at defensive tackle though. Roy Miller and Brandon Deaderick both struggled mightily and the latter is a free agent. The former could be a cap casualty if they’re unhappy with his performance and either way they need another defensive tackle in the mix.

Cornerback

The Jaguars cornerback trio of Alan Ball, Will Blackmon, and Dwayne Gratz actually impressed this season. All three of them graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. However, Blackmon is a free agent, while Alan Ball has been very inconsistent in the past so I don’t know how much you can trust him going forward. They could add another cornerback in the later rounds.

Middle Linebacker

Paul Posluszny had a bunch of tackles last season, but don’t let that mislead you. Almost every play ends in a tackle so somehow had to have a bunch of tackles on the Jaguars. That doesn’t mean he’s good. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’s owed 7.45 million in 2014, which will make him one of the highest paid middle linebackers in the NFL and the Jaguars can save 5.5 million in the cap by letting him go. In normal circumstances, they let him go. However, the Jaguars aren’t exactly pressed for cap space so they might shy away from cutting a veteran leader. If they do cut him, they’ll need a replacement.

Tight End

Marcedes Lewis is one of the highest paid tight ends in the NFL. He’ll make 6.7 million in 2014 and the Jaguars can save on the cap 5.45 million by cutting him. He hasn’t lived up to his 58/700/10 season in 2010, which got him the contract. In the last 3 seasons, he’s averaged 39 catches for 453 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a solid blocker and his receiving numbers are affected by the quarterback situation. Like with Posluszny, in normal circumstances, he’s probably gets cut, but the Jaguars aren’t pressed for cap space and might not want to cut one of the few solid starters they have. If they do, they’ll need to replace him.

Safety

The Jaguars had a pair of rookie safeties in 2013, John Cyprien and Josh Evans. Both of them graded out as among Pro Football Focus’ worst safeties, ranking 84th and 78th respectively out of 86 eligible. The Jaguars like both of them and they’ll probably return in 2014 as starters, especially Cyprien, a 2nd round pick who played much better in the 2nd half of the season, but Evans was just a 6th round pick and the Jaguars could add some competition.

Outside Linebacker

Geno Hayes was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 35 eligible and the Jaguars can save a little bit of cap space by cutting him, but the Jaguars have other needs so this one might go unaddressed. If they do cut Hayes, he probably wouldn’t be hard to upgrade though.

Key Free Agents

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew has seen a sharp fall from the 2011 season in which he led the NFL in rushing, with 1606 yards and 8 touchdowns on 343 carries. He missed 10 games in 2012 and only had 86 carries, which he took for 484 yards and a touchdown. This past year was even worse, as he rushed for 803 yards and 5 touchdowns on 234 carries, an average of 3.4 yards per carry. He could be better with more talent around him, but he’s also going into his age 29 season with 1804 career carries and a recent history of significant injury so it’s not like he’ll be a hot commodity on the open market. He’ll probably be looking to sign with a contender and could get a one or two year deal. There’s almost no chance he returns to Jacksonville at this point in his career.

CB Will Blackmon

Will Blackmon played a total of 31 snaps from 2009-2012 and didn’t play at all in 2012. There’s a reason the Jaguars were able to sign him right before the season started for the veteran’s minimum. However, he somehow played pretty solid this season, a testament to Gus Bradley’s ability to coach up defensive backs. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked cornerback and played 682 snaps. Much of that was run grade as he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked run stopping cornerback, but he also had an average grade in coverage. The Jaguars should be able to bring him back cheap.

QB Chad Henne

A 2nd round pick in 2008, Chad Henne has never been able to establish himself as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 55 touchdowns, and 62 interceptions, a 75.3 QB rating. He’s a solid backup though so he could get a decent amount of money somewhere. He should be looking for contracts in the 2-3 million dollar range this off-season.

OT Cameron Bradfield

A swing tackle pressed into action this season, first at right tackle and then at the blindside, Cameron Bradfield was one of the worst offensive tackles in the league this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked player at his position. He was a little bit better in 2012 as the starting right tackle, but the Jaguars still drafted Luke Joeckel to replace him. It’s clear they don’t view him as a starting caliber player and that’s probably an accurate assessment. He should try to find swing tackle work somewhere.

RB Jordan Todman

Jordan Todman was given an opportunity to establish himself as a lead back type player when Maurice Jones-Drew missed time with injury down the stretch, rushing for 109 yards on 25 carries in one game. The 2011 6th round pick only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the season though. Part of that was the lack of talent around him, but the Jaguars shouldn’t feel comfortable bringing him back as the lead back.

C Brad Meester

A 2000 2nd round pick, Brad Meester played 14 seasons and made 209 starts at center for the Jaguars. However, he’s expected to retire this off-season. It’s coming at a good time. He’ll be 37 in March and struggled in each of the last two seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd and 6th worst ranked center in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Jason Babin

The Jaguars can save 6.175 million by cutting Jason Babin and there would be no cap hit. They shouldn’t hesitate. He did have 8 sacks last season and graded out above average as a pass rusher, but he struggled mightily against the run and also committed 11 penalties. He’s also going into his age 34 season. Babin also has the option to make himself a free agent so the Jaguars might not even have to do anything to get him and his cap number off the books.

RB Justin Forsett

The Jaguars will only save 1.15 million on the cap by cutting Justin Forsett, but considering the 3rd string running back played just 100 snaps and had 6 carries this year, there’s not much use in keeping him when they can get some savings by letting him go. Reports already say he’s as good as gone.

TE Marcedes Lewis

I already mentioned Marcedes Lewis. He’ll make 6.7 million in 2014 and the Jaguars can cap 5.45 million by cutting him. He hasn’t lived up to his 58/700/10 season in 2010, which got him the contract. In the last 3 seasons, he’s averaged 39 catches for 453 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a solid blocker and his receiving numbers are affected by the quarterback situation. In normal circumstances, he’s probably gets cut, but the Jaguars aren’t pressed for cap space and might not want to cut one of the few solid starters they have.

MLB Paul Posluszny

I already mentioned Paul Posluszny. Paul Posluszny had a bunch of tackles last season, but don’t let that mislead you. Almost every play ends in a tackle so somehow had to have a bunch of tackles on the Jaguars. That doesn’t mean he’s good. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’s owed 7.45 million in 2014, which will make him one of the highest paid middle linebackers in the NFL and the Jaguars can save 5.5 million in the cap by letting him go. In normal circumstances, they let him go. However, the Jaguars aren’t exactly pressed for cap space so they might shy away from cutting a veteran leader.

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 AFC Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)

This is one I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Chargers are in the better spot. The Broncos could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, including 8-14 ATS off of a week 17 win. With a week off, the Broncos may have one eye on the AFC Championship Game and a potential rematch with the Patriots.

Patriots/Broncos and Seahawks/49ers seem to be the consensus AFC/NFC Championship Games right now as you can see from the NFL Superbowl Lines. We all know how seldom the consensus is right in the post-season. It might not be a bad idea to bet against all 4 of those teams. I’m thinking at least 3 of their opponents cover. The Chargers, meanwhile, are in a good spot as teams are 10-3 ATS as underdogs off of a road playoff win since 2005. Not only that, but they are 8-5 straight up despite being underdogs all 13 times. We’ve seen so many teams go on runs from the Wild Card round after winning on the road before. That could make the Chargers dangerous.

The Chargers have also been infrequently blown out this year, with just 1 loss by more than 8 points and no losses by more than 10 (that 10 point loss was somehow to the Raiders). That’s relevant with the line at 9 points. However, on the other hand, they lost by 8 at home to the Broncos, so why couldn’t they lose by double digits in Denver? Sure, they won in Denver a few weeks ago, but in spite of that, it’s definitely arguable that the Broncos are the best team in the NFL so if anyone is going to blow out the Chargers, it’s them.

The Broncos rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 81.09% rate, as opposed to 71.86% for their opponents, a differential of 9.23%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 10th, moving the chains at a 77.88% rate, as opposed to 75.24% for their opponents, a differential of 2.64%. That suggests that this line should be around 9.5. That doesn’t give us much line value with the Broncos, but it’s worth noting.

The Broncos are definitely capable of blowing out the Chargers, in spite of the Chargers’ lack of blowout losses this season. The Broncos have also been deadly at home over the past 2 years, going 12-4 ATS as favorites. In 7 of their 8 home games this year, they’ve won by double digits, with the exception obviously being the loss to San Diego. In 2012, they won by double digits in 5 of 8 home games in the regular season.

Speaking of that loss to San Diego, I think some people are putting too much stock into that game and San Diego’s win in Cincinnati. San Diego obviously played well last week, but part of that was because they forced 4 turnovers. Considering how inconsistent turnovers are, that the Chargers had just 17 takeaways all year, and that they are facing the Broncos this week, that’s not something they’re going to be able to count on this week. Their defense is pretty bad when they aren’t forcing takeaways.

As for the win in Denver, I think that was a fluke that would happen about 10% of the time. The Chargers are certainly capable of putting together a perfect game, playing keep away with their offense and having just enough defense, but the Broncos are much more likely to do the same thing. I was hoping this line would be smaller or that the public would be on San Diego more though, so I could take the Broncos. This line is basically the same as it was the last time these two teams played and I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Broncos. As long as the line is higher than a touchdown, I’m taking the Chargers, but it’s a pretty much toss-up.

Denver Broncos 31 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: San Diego +9

Confidence: None

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