2013 Week 16 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football, 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

QB Kirk Cousins (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.0%

Kirk Cousins wasn’t perfect or anything, but he put up big fantasy numbers against Atlanta’s defense in his first start, throwing for 381 yards and 3 touchdowns, to go with 2 interceptions. Atlanta’s defense didn’t represent much of a challenge, but neither do the defenses remaining on his schedule as he faces Dallas and then the New York Giants in week 16 and week 17 respectively. He’s a low end QB1 for the remainder of the season for those who need one.

WR Marvin Jones (Cincinnati)

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.1%

Marvin Jones was on here earlier this season for an 8 catch for 122 yards and 4 touchdowns performance against the Jets, but he never lived up to it. However, he just played the highest percentage of snaps he’d played in a single game this season against the Steelers and he now has 8 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two weeks. He looks to be emerging as a true starting receiver in this offense and if that’s the case, he could be very valuable. He ranks a respectable 31st in the NFL in yards per route run, out of 95 eligible and he’s already scored 9 times.

WR Andre Holmes (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Andre Holmes continues to be steady for the Raiders as he now has 14 catches for 257 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games. Even with Denarius Moore back, Holmes played ahead of him and he seems to have emerged as Matt McGloin’s favorite target. There’s definitely some appeal here in deeper leagues and he should be at least owned in most leagues.

RB Jordan Todman (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.3%

In Maurice Jones-Drew’s absence, Jordan Todman carried the load and rushed for 109 yards on 25 carries with 4 catches for 44 yards. Jones-Drew could be back this week, but the Jaguars may also opt to shut him down, with the season essentially over, like they did with Cecil Shorts. Jones-Drew is probably not going to be back next season and it would be in their best interest to evaluate Todman as a potential starter in 2014 and beyond. He’s worth stashing and could be startable in some leagues if he continues to get the start.

TE Tim Wright (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.7%

He continues to be inconsistent, but Tim Wright had a good game this week against San Francisco, catching 7 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. He now has 30 catches for 333 yards and 4 touchdowns over his past 8 games, which extrapolates to 60 catches for 666 yards and 8 touchdowns over a full season. Those are essentially low end TE1 numbers. If you’re in need of a tight end, this is the guy to target. He might let you down, but there’s a better chance he doesn’t and he’s the best available option.

RB LeGarrette Blount (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.4%

Blount remains unowned in most leagues. At this point, we pretty much know what we’re going to get from him. He’ll carry the ball between 8-12 times and rush for 40-50 yards, something he’s done in 4 of his last 6 games, including the last 3. If he scores a touchdown, he was a worthwhile start. If not, he’ll disappoint you. If you’re desperate in a deep league, this is your guy.

RB Edwin Baker (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.0%

Edwin Baker, not Chris Ogbonnaya, was the lead back with Willis McGahee out, rushing for 38 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries, while contributing 4 catches for 46 yards through the air. Willis McGahee could be back this week and it’s important not to get too excited about a guy with 8 career carries who was recently signed off of Houston’s practice squad, especially against a team like the Jets, who the Browns face this week and who have a very tough run defense. However, he might have earned himself more playing time so if you’re completely desperate, give him a look.

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2013 Week 15 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 15

Straight Up: 9-7

Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Pick of the Week: 0-0-1

High Confidence: 1-2

Medium Confidence: 1-0

Low Confidence: 5-4

No Confidence: 2-0

Upset Picks: 0-2

2013

Straight Up: 149-74-1 (.668)

Against the Spread: 131-86-7 (.604)

Pick of the Week: 8-6-1

High Confidence: 21-8

Medium Confidence: 29-19

Low Confidence: 36-22-2

No Confidence: 37-31-4

Upset Picks: 24-24

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 382 63 56 26 0 21 81.20%
2 San Diego 330 36 50 17 1 31 78.71%
3 New Orleans 318 42 50 17 8 30 77.42%
4 Carolina 293 34 56 16 3 26 76.40%
5 Chicago 309 40 58 19 4 28 76.20%
6 Dallas 288 40 71 15 1 26 74.38%
7 Green Bay 300 35 57 21 4 34 74.28%
8 Detroit 312 39 59 33 9 21 74.21%
9 New England 333 38 67 19 8 35 74.20%
10 Seattle 277 38 59 17 5 31 73.77%
11 Philadelphia 306 42 75 17 6 26 73.73%
12 Atlanta 285 32 58 25 8 24 73.38%
13 Cincinnati 285 39 68 25 8 20 72.81%
14 Kansas City 283 37 78 14 6 25 72.23%
15 Arizona 294 33 70 25 3 29 72.03%
16 Indianapolis 276 33 67 14 7 33 71.86%
17 Tennessee 272 35 69 23 5 24 71.73%
18 Pittsburgh 274 31 66 20 6 29 71.60%
19 Washington 300 32 72 29 11 21 71.40%
20 Minnesota 280 37 64 26 7 30 71.40%
21 St. Louis 253 29 69 17 11 24 69.98%
22 San Francisco 247 34 70 18 3 30 69.90%
23 Miami 254 31 70 21 7 34 68.35%
24 Cleveland 267 28 77 25 13 24 67.97%
25 Houston 274 24 75 25 11 32 67.57%
26 Oakland 244 30 74 28 3 27 67.49%
27 Tampa Bay 237 25 78 18 11 26 66.33%
28 Baltimore 259 24 80 22 5 37 66.28%
29 Buffalo 264 28 86 26 7 30 66.21%
30 NY Giants 251 26 77 39 6 20 66.11%
31 Jacksonville 237 20 86 24 13 23 63.77%
32 NY Jets 233 20 80 29 6 31 63.41%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Baltimore 242 26 88 20 6 31 64.89%
2 San Francisco 240 25 77 26 12 20 66.25%
3 Kansas City 265 29 78 35 9 22 67.12%
4 Cincinnati 255 25 78 24 7 28 67.15%
5 Carolina 238 18 60 27 7 30 67.37%
6 Seattle 255 18 69 33 7 23 67.41%
7 Buffalo 278 35 81 27 5 32 68.34%
8 Detroit 256 31 72 18 3 37 68.82%
9 Houston 240 35 79 10 4 29 69.27%
10 Arizona 280 31 73 28 9 26 69.57%
11 NY Jets 256 33 72 10 9 35 69.64%
12 New Orleans 246 27 70 17 6 26 69.64%
13 Pittsburgh 262 34 69 16 8 30 70.64%
14 Miami 287 28 66 23 7 33 70.95%
15 Cleveland 286 37 81 19 4 28 70.99%
16 NY Giants 291 31 71 22 9 27 71.40%
17 New England 300 33 72 25 11 24 71.61%
18 Tampa Bay 285 32 60 29 4 29 72.21%
19 Tennessee 295 33 67 20 2 37 72.25%
20 Indianapolis 282 33 65 21 7 28 72.25%
21 Denver 308 41 74 23 10 23 72.86%
22 Oakland 278 42 70 19 4 22 73.56%
23 Philadelphia 329 34 65 26 10 28 73.78%
24 St. Louis 303 36 64 27 6 22 74.02%
25 Green Bay 292 38 60 18 7 29 74.32%
26 Atlanta 290 40 53 19 4 33 75.17%
27 Chicago 300 38 54 25 4 27 75.45%
28 Jacksonville 308 44 67 20 2 24 75.70%
29 Washington 299 47 63 21 5 21 75.88%
30 Minnesota 330 45 66 19 6 27 76.06%
31 San Diego 291 33 55 15 5 26 76.24%
32 Dallas 350 45 53 26 7 25 78.06%

 

Differential

Team
1 Carolina 9.03%
2 Denver 8.34%
3 New Orleans 7.78%
4 Seattle 6.36%
5 Cincinnati 5.66%
6 Detroit 5.38%
7 Kansas City 5.11%
8 San Francisco 3.65%
9 New England 2.59%
10 San Diego 2.47%
11 Arizona 2.45%
12 Baltimore 1.39%
13 Pittsburgh 0.95%
14 Chicago 0.75%
15 Green Bay -0.04%
16 Philadelphia -0.05%
17 Indianapolis -0.39%
18 Tennessee -0.52%
19 Houston -1.70%
20 Atlanta -1.79%
21 Buffalo -2.13%
22 Miami -2.60%
23 Cleveland -3.02%
24 Dallas -3.69%
25 St. Louis -4.04%
26 Washington -4.48%
27 Minnesota -4.67%
28 NY Giants -5.29%
29 Tampa Bay -5.88%
30 Oakland -6.08%
31 NY Jets -6.23%
32 Jacksonville -11.93%

 

Projected Week 16 Lines

CIN/MIN 13.33
CAR/NO 4.26
TEN/JAX 8.41
DEN/HOU 7.04
STL/TB 4.84
BUF/MIA 3.47
WAS/DAL 2.21
CLE/NYJ 0.21
KC/IND 8.50
SEA/ARZ 6.91
DET/NYG 13.67
BAL/NE 1.80
GB/PIT 2.00
SD/OAK 11.55
PHI/CHI 2.19
SF/ATL 8.44

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being favorites of 10 or more at home. In this spot, the 49ers can be as focused as they need to be in order to dispatch of an inferior opponent.

The 49ers have also been dominant against inferior teams this season. Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 22-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

As long as the line stays under 6, the 49ers definitely seem like the right side. There are three things that keep this from being a bigger play. One, the public is all over San Francisco and I hate heavy public leans. Two, the 49ers could be in a trap situation going across the country to play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team after the biggest win of their season over hated rival Seattle last week.

Three, Football Outsiders has Tampa Bay ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. It not that hard to see why, considering their point differential is just -47, despite their 4-9 record. I don’t have them nearly that high as they are moving the chains at a 66.94% rate, as opposed to 71.99% for their opponents, a differential of -5.05% that is 28th in the NFL. I think they’ve been too reliant on an unsustainable +13 turnover margin to buoy their team, but Football Outsiders ranking them so high is enough to scare me off a little. San Francisco should be the right side though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8)

At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.26% rate, as opposed to 71.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.44% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around 7, which is exactly where it is.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Seahawks aren’t quite the same team away from home. They aren’t a bad team away from home, but their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential takes into account games in which they have an amazing home field advantage, which they don’t here.  They’ve had some impressive games on the road. They’ve won in Carolina, blew out the Falcons, and came away with an impressive double digit victory from Arizona. However, they’ve also played close games with Houston, St. Louis, and lost in Indianapolis and San Francisco.

They have just two wins on the road by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover this spread. Dating back to last season, they have just three road wins by more than a touchdown in 15 tries. The Seahawks are in a good spot though with no distractions with a home game against Arizona up next. Since 1989, teams are 84-54 ATS as road favorites of 5 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which is why I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated.

That’s the only time they’ve covered on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU, including a loss in New York to the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle and near losses in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. That win in Chicago was their only win by more than 4 points on the road all season and it was by just 8 points. Over the past 4 seasons, they have just 6 road wins by a touchdown or more. As a result, they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ dating back to 2010.

However, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Rams to confidently take them here. The Rams are not very good. They are moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.95% that is 25th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3rd in differential, moving the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 69.13% for their opponents, a differential of 8.05%. That suggests this line should be around 9. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Saints’ road issues, but I have to feel a team has at least a chance to win to confident take them as underdogs of a touchdown or less and I don’t feel that way about the Rams. I’m going to take them and hope for a close game, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Raiders are one of the worst, by any measure. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs rank 5th, while the Raiders rank 31st. In terms of rate of movement the chains, the Chiefs move them at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 66.17% for their opponents, a differential of 5.19% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th in differential, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate, as opposed to 72.77% for their opponents, a differential of -6.29%. Using that, this line should be around 8.5, which is appropriate for a line between a top level team and a bottom level team, instead of 5, as it currently is.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot, as road favorites off of a win as road favorites, a situation teams are 93-71 ATS in since 1989, including 72-44 ATS as road favorites of 3+ after a win of 3+ as road favorites of 3+. They have plenty of reason to give their best effort here as they’re a Denver slipup away from leading the division and getting a first round bye. The Raiders, meanwhile, could be too distracted to keep this one close, even if they were good enough to. They have to go to San Diego next week. Teams are 26-39 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Chiefs should be able to win this one by a good margin and they should be the right side, as long this line is below 6 points.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against spread: Kansas City -5

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8)

The Bengals have been dominant at home this season, winning all 6 of their games by an average of 16.00 points per game, including victories over the Colts, Patriots, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. They’ve also covered in all 6 of those games. However, they haven’t been the same team on the road. They are 3-4 on the road, including losses in Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, and Chicago and a near loss in Buffalo. Their only impressive road games have been in Detroit, where they won by a field goal, and in San Diego, where they won by a touchdown, their only road game of the season where they’ve won by more than a touchdown.

And yet, they’re favored by 2.5 points here in Pittsburgh. They are 1-3 ATS as road favorites this season, including 0-2 ATS as divisional road favorites. They lost in Cleveland and Baltimore, despite beating the Browns by 21 (they haven’t played the Ravens there yet). Why couldn’t they lose in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that only lost by 10 in Cincinnati earlier this season?

The Steelers are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are moving the chains at a 71.18% rate, as opposed to 70.26% for their opponents, a 0.92% differential that is 13th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a 36.67% fumble recovery percentage. The Bengals are very good as well, moving the chains at a 72.60% rate, as opposed to 66.58% for their opponents, a 6.02% differential that is 4th in the NFL. However, they just aren’t the same on the road. If we were getting field goal protection with the Steelers, it’d be a bigger play, but I still like the Steelers’ chances of winning this straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6)

The Lions lost last week in Philadelphia by the score of 34-20. The Eagles won that game on the strength of a 28-6 margin in the 4th quarter, after the Lions led by 14-6 going into the 4th quarter. However, now the Lions return home where they are 4-2 and outscore opponents by 7.17 points per game, as opposed to on the road, where they are 3-4 and get outscored by opponents by 2.57 points per game.

Furthermore, underdogs who lead by more than a touchdown going into the final period and still lose are 28-16 ATS since 1989 as favorites the following week. There seems to be something to blowing an upset victory late, but still being favored the following week. The Lions’ loss last week was largely snow related and now they can take out all of their frustrations at home against the Ravens.

The Lions’ last 3 losses have all been pretty fluky, as they’ve had -3, -5, and -3 turnover margins in those 3 games. The Lions are 7-6 despite a -10 turnover margin on the season, which might sound bad, but I think it’s more impressive than anything. Turnover margins are very inconsistent. For instance, teams that have a -4 turnover margin have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week, about the same as teams that have a +4 turnover margin. When this team doesn’t lose the turnover battle, they can compete with anyone in the NFL. They are moving the chains at a 74.94% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 5.61%, which is 6th in the NFL. They’re underrated.

The Ravens are underrated as well. They have been terrible offensively this season, moving the chains at a 66.58% rate, but they have an amazing defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 64.49% rate. That’s a differential of 2.09%, which is 11th in the NFL. On top of that, they have Dennis Pitta back from injury, which will help their offense. He played well in limited action in his first game back and he should be even better in his 2nd game back.

However, the Ravens are not the same team on the road. They are 1-5 on the road, as opposed to 6-1 at home. This isn’t a new thing. Since 2008, the Ravens are 41-8 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.00 points per game, as opposed to 29-28 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.26 points per game.  It’s not a big play, but I like the Lions’ chance of bouncing back at home against a Ravens team that struggles on the road.

Detroit Lions 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this one, so the line has been posted. The Packers have opened as 7 point underdogs. You check see all of the NFL lines at https://www.bwin.com/. However, even though Aaron Rodgers is out, that doesn’t mean the Packers will have trouble moving the ball. The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a ridiculous 77.61% rate and they will be without stud middle linebacker Sean Lee with an injury.

Eddie Lacy should be able to run all over them and make life easy for Matt Flynn, who was much better last week against an equally bad Atlanta defense, completing 24 of 32 for 258 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He’s the best quarterback the Packers have had since Aaron Rodgers went down and he’s played pretty well, excluding a Detroit game where he didn’t have the playbook down and had to play on short rest on the road after his teammates played essentially a 5 quarter game the week before.

Because of the Cowboys’ terrible defense, they rank pretty far down in rate of moving the chains differential. With their defense allowing opponents to move the chains at 77.61%, their offense, as good as it is, can’t keep up, moving the chains at a 74.13% rate, a differential of -3.38% that ranks 24th in the NFL. They are only 7-6 because of a +12 turnover margin and a 70.0% rate of recovering fumbles that helps fuel it. Both of those things are unsustainable. Their opponents have 63 more first downs and 20 fewer punts on the season.

The Packers obviously aren’t as good as their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential would suggest because so much of the positive was done with Aaron Rodgers under center, but they still don’t deserve to be 7 point underdogs here. According to rate of moving the chains differential, the only team that deserves to be 7 point underdogs in Dallas is Jacksonville. I don’t think the Packers are that bad.

The Cowboys also have had a lot of trouble as big home favorites over the past few years, going 5-12 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since new Cowboys Stadium opened in 2009. Most recently, they struggled with Oakland at home on Thanksgiving, trailing early before winning by a touchdown as 9 point favorites. If the Cowboys can’t beat the Raiders at home on a short week by more than a touchdown, they don’t have a good chance of beating the Packers at home on a normal week. In fact, their last win by more than a touchdown game way back in week 7.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Cowboys have no distractions, with only a trip to Washington on deck. The Cowboys could easily be favorites of more than a field goal in Washington next week and teams are 63-37 ATS before being road favorites of more than a field goal since 2012. The Packers may or may not be in a good spot here. Usually, non-divisional road underdogs cover before being non-divisional home favorites, going 100-65 ATS since 2008. The Packers host the Steelers next week and would definitely be home favorites if Rodgers were to return and might be home favorites either way. Still, it’s not as sure of a thing as the Cowboys’ situational trend. At the end of the day though, I’m taking the points and hoping for a close game.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay +7

Confidence: Low

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