Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. The Texans finished 14th at +0.58, while the Steelers finished 22nd at -1.65. Both teams benefited significantly from the turnover margin, with the Texans ranking 2nd at +17 and the Steelers ranking 4th at +12, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +10 or better have an even turnover margin in the post-season and, as a result, cover the spread at just a 46.7% rate, including 45.2% as favorites.

However, it seems to be only the Steelers that are viewed as not as good as their record by the public, as the Texans are favored by 3.5 points in Pittsburgh. With only about two points between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, we are getting great value with the Steelers at that number. The Steelers are also historically a great bet as home underdogs in the Mike Tomlin era, going 20-9-4 ATS and 18-15 straight up, outperforming the spread on average by 3.7 points, more than the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency. I think there is a good chance the Steelers pull the straight up upset at home and, even if they don’t, I like getting 3.5 points to play with, with about a quarter of games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)

The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately swung on five plays that benefited the Panthers by a margin of 27 points, an interception touchdown, two touchdowns on fourth downs, and two Rams turnovers in field goal range. If just 2 or 3 of those plays had gone the other way, not only would the Rams have won, but they could have won by multiple scores. It seems unlikely things will play out the same way a second time.

Most of the Rams’ five losses this season have gone this way. They won the first down rate battle by +3.61% and the yards per play battle by +0.82 in a 7-point loss to the Eagles in which the Rams’ special teams cost them 12 points with a pair of blocked field goals, one of which was returned for a touchdown. They won the first down rate battle by +7.94% and the yards per play battle by +2.22 in a 3-point overtime loss to the 49ers in which they lost the turnover battle by two, missed a field goal, and failed on a fourth down at the end of the game. 

The Rams’ only losses this season in which they lost the first down rate battle were their losses to the Seahawks and Falcons, but the Rams were without multiple key players due to injury in those games, including wide receiver Davante Adams and safety Quentin Lake, both of whom will play this week. Meanwhile, in the Rams’ twelve wins, they won by double digits eight times, relevant considering this line is -10.

The Rams finished the season first by a wide margin in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. The Rams were about 1.7 points better than any other team, and they are healthier now than they have been the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished about 13.2 points behind the Rams in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 26th in the NFL. Not only did they finish at 8-9, worst among playoff qualifiers, but were outscored by double digits in six of their nine losses.

This line might seem high at -10, but favorites of 9.5+ are 12-2 ATS in the first round of the playoffs, as big lines in the post-season tend to be justified. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is definitely a reason not to be afraid of how high this line is. Additionally, favorites are 27-17 ATS in a post-season rematch against a non-divisional opponent who they lost to as favorites in the regular season, as upsets tend to be flukes. Again, that alone is not a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is a reason not to put much, if any stock into the fact that the Panthers won the first matchup between these two teams. The Rams being on the road is also not a reason to be concerned about them, as they have one of the worst homefield advantages in the league and, as a result, are 47-38 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2016. I like the Rams a lot this week.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)

The Bears finished the regular season with a better record than the Packers, but the Packers were statistically the better team this season, finishing with a yards per play differential of +0.60 and a first down rate differential of +1.92%, as opposed to -0.30 and -1.12% for the Bears, which are both much more predictive than win/loss record. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Packers finished about 4.2 points better than the Bears and ranked 7th, as opposed to 19th for the Bears.

The one statistic in which the Bears had a huge edge was turnover margin, with the Bears leading the league at +22, and the Packers ranking 13th at +1, but turnover margin tends to be very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season. Despite the Bears huge edge in turnover margin, the Packers actually had the better point differential this season (+31 vs. +26) and these two teams could have finished with opposite records, with the Bears going 7-4 in one-score games and the Packers going 4-5-1.

One thing in the Bears’ favor is they did get better as the season went on. On offense, second year quarterback Caleb Williams improved as the year went on while four rookies, wide receiver Luther Burden, tight end Colston Loveland, running back Kyle Monangai, and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, got more playing time as the season went on and the offense improved as a result. Meanwhile, their defense is now healthier than it was for most of the season, with cornerback Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed), cornerback Kyler Gordon (14 games missed), linebacker TJ Edwards (7 games missed), and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed) all healthy for this game. On the other hand, the Packers got worse as the season went on, particularly due to the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft, edge defender Micah Parsons, and interior defender Devonte Wyatt for the season with injuries.

That being said, these two teams did face each other late in the season and the Packers were an onside kick recovery away from winning both games. Micah Parsons did play in the first game, but he didn’t play in the second game and neither did talented safety Evan Williams or stud right tackle Zach Tom, while Jordan Love left with a concussion in the first half. All three players will play in this game, so the Packers will be healthier in this game and they were in a game in which they easily could have won in Chicago a few weeks ago. The Bears do get wide receiver Rome Odunze and cornerback Kyler Gordon back, who didn’t play in the last matchup between these two teams, but those players don’t make as much of a difference as the players the Packers get back. 

Overall, the gap between these two teams in my roster rankings is not as high as it is in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, but I still give the Packers a 3.5-point edge and, even on the road, I think the Packers are more likely to win than not. Unfortunately, the odds makers don’t really seem to disagree because they have made this an even line, so, while I still like the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be worth betting.

Update: Zach Tom is surprisingly out for the Packers and, despite that, this line has shifted to favoring Green Bay by two points. I am flipping this pick, still for a no confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago +2

Confidence: None

2025 Week 18 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

NE 34 (-10.5) MIA 13

High Confidence Picks

HOU 20 IND 16 (+10.5)

JAX 30 (-12.5) TEN 10

CIN 28 (-7.5) CLE 17

Medium Confidence Picks

BAL 19 PIT 17 (+4)

CHI 28 DET 27 (+4.5)

Low Confidence Picks

LAR 31 (-14) ARZ 15

PHI 24 (-3.5) WAS 17

KC 20 LV 17 (+4.5)

MIN 20 GB 10 (+12.5)

ATL 20 NO 17 (+4)

SEA 26 (-1) SF 24

DAL 31 (-3) NYG 27

DEN 27 (-14) LAC 10

No Confidence Picks

BUF 26 NYJ 14 (+12.5)

TB 23 CAR 20 (+3)

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

The Browns were my top pick last week as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers, but that was because the Steelers were missing a lot of key personnel and were in the type of spot where they have historically struggled under head coach Mike Tomlin, going 7-24 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 or more after a win since his first season in 2007. Fortunately for the Steelers, the opposite is also true, as they are 9-2 ATS and straight up as home underdogs of 3.5 or more during that stretch, including 4-1 ATS after a loss.

The Steelers are also healthier this week. They are still without top wide receiver DK Metcalf and also lost talented tight end Darnell Washington last week, but they get back arguably their best offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo, stud edge defender TJ Watt, and cornerback James Pierre, who has been their best cornerback this season when in the lineup. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Steelers to bounce back with a more complete team in a better spot.

Baltimore Ravens 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)

I made a big bet on the Dolphins last week as 6-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers, but that was much more a bet against the Buccaneers, who have one win since week 8 and just two wins by more than three points all season, rather than on the Dolphins. The Dolphins won that game straight up, but they needed to win the turnover battle by three to do so, which is not consistent week-to-week. First down rate and yards per play are much more consistent and the Dolphins lost the first down rate battle (-8.23%) and yards per play battle (-0.51) to a Buccaneers team that ranks 20th and 28th in those metrics respectively. 

The Dolphins’ win last week also puts them in a bad spot, as teams tend to struggle after big home upset wins, covering at a 40.8% rate the week after winning as home underdogs of five points or more, including a 34.9% cover rate when they are underdogs of five or more again. Additionally, the Dolphins historically have struggled against good teams in the Mike McDaniel era, going 2-10 straight up and 3-9 ATS against teams that are .500 or better in week 11 or later. This season specifically, they are 6-2 straight up against teams with a losing record, but just 1-7 against teams that are .500 or better, with four double digit losses, three of which came on the road in their four road games against teams with a .500 or better record (8-8 Carolina is the one exception).

Making matters worse, the Dolphins will be without two of their best offensive playmakers, running back De’Von Achane and tight end Darren Waller, this week due to injury. Despite this, the Dolphins are only 10.5-point underdogs in New England this week, against a Patriots team that is one of the best in the league and that is getting healthier this week, with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, left tackle Will Campbell, and defensive tackle Milton Williams all set to return. 

This line has crept up to 11 or 11.5 since I locked this in at 10.5 earlier this week, but I still like the Patriots a lot at that number. One potential concern is the Patriots pulling starters late if the Broncos are up big on the short-handed Chargers, which would eliminate the Patriots from contention for the #1 seed, but the Broncos have two double digit wins all year and play a lot of close games, so I am not really concerned about that. The Patriots are my top pick this week.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to injury, but he will get tight end George Kittle back after he missed his sixth game of the season due to injury last week. As a result of their recent winning streak, the public seems to not understand why the Seahawks are favored by a point on the road in this game, betting on the 49ers heavily. The Seahawks are a big step up from the teams they have played on their winning streak though, as they rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+5.55%) and 1st in yards per play differential (+1.34). 

The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 7th in first down rate differential (2.35%) and 18th in yards per play differential (-0.07). Part of that is due to the injuries the 49ers have had this season and they are overall healthier than they have been, but my roster rankings still suggest the oddsmakers are right to favor the visitor in this game and, if anything, this line is a little short, with my calculated line at -2.5. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

I have had a lot of success betting against the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They started the season 5-1, but were never as good as their record suggested, with four of those five wins coming by three points or fewer. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 2-8 with only one ATS cover in their last ten games, including eight straight non-covers. They still are alive for a playoff spot, but only because they play in the weakest division in the NFL. 

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting good line value going against the Buccaneers anymore, as their record now largely lines up with where they rank in first down rate differential (20th at -0.91%) and yards per play differential (28th at -0.62). The Buccaneers are also starting to get healthier. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka are clearly playing at less than 100%, while starting cornerback Jamel Dean joins fellow starting cornerback Zyon McCollum on the sidelines this week, but left tackle Tristan Wirfs (5 games missed), right tackle Luke Goedeke (6 games missed), running back Bucky Irving (7 games missed), and wide receivers Mike Evans (9 games missed), Chris Godwin (8 games missed), and Jalen McMillan (13 games missed) have all returned from multigame absences.

On top of that, the Buccaneers’ opponents this week, the Carolina Panthers, have been much worse in yards per play differential (26th at -0.57) and first down rate differential (26th at -1.89%) than their record would suggest. As evidence of how the public perception of the Buccaneers have shifted in just the past two weeks, the Buccaneers were 3-point road favorites in Carolina two weeks ago, which translates to about 7-point home favorites, but this week in this rematch they are still just 3-point favorites at home. That line is right where I have it calculated, so we aren’t getting any value with either side. I am taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes only because they are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 straight up as underdogs off of a loss this season, but this is a small sample size and could prove to not mean anything, so this is a no confidence pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: None

2025 Week 17 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

CLE 20 (+4.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +160

High Confidence Picks

DEN 20 KC 13 (+13.5)

DET 28 (-7) MIN 17

DAL 34 (-7) WAS 20

MIA 24 (+6) TB 23 Upset Pick +220

NE 26 NYJ 17 (+13.5)

Medium Confidence Picks

NO 22 (-2.5) TEN 17

JAX 27 IND 24 (+6)

BUF 27 (-1) PHI 24

NYG 23 (-1) LV 20

Low Confidence Picks

SF 31 (-3) CHI 26

GB 19 BAL 17 (+3.5)

LAR 31 ATL 24 (+8.5)

No Confidence Picks

LAC 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)

SEA 24 CAR 17 (+7.5)

CIN 34 (-7) ARZ 27

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)

The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad as their offense has been good, ranking 30th in yards per play allowed and 32nd in first down rate allowed. Fortunately, offensive performance tends to be a lot more predictive than defensive performance, especially at this stage of the season. 

The Commanders are also much better on offense than defense, ranking 15th in yards per play and 16th in first down rate, as opposed to 31st in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, but they will likely be down to their third string quarterback Josh Johnson, who is a big downgrade even from backup Marcus Mariota. Johnson is in his age 39 season, has not made a start since 2021, and recorded a 28.8 PFF grade across 9 attempts in relief of Mariota last week.  While the Cowboys’ elite offense should be able to move the ball with ease against the Commanders’ terrible defense, the Commanders may be unable to move the ball even against the Cowboys’ terrible defense because of their quarterback situation. 

The Cowboys also seem to have found their best offensive line combination, moving Tyler Smith, their best offensive lineman, to left tackle, the most important offensive line position and previously their biggest weakness. TJ Bass then replaced Smith at his previous spot of left guard, where he is a better option than Nate Thomas or Tyler Guyton were at left tackle. This even further boosts their elite offense. I think the Cowboys are significantly undervalued as 7-point road favorites, so they are worth a big bet this week. I am taking a risk locking in this pick before the Commanders’ quarterback is announced, but it seems pretty likely it won’t be Mariota and I don’t want to risk this line going up to 7.5, which it may if/when Mariota is announced as out. If you are reading this and Mariota happens to be starting for the Commanders, I would need the line to go down to 6.5 for the Cowboys to be worth betting.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Commanders 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: High