Tips for betting on the new NFL season

stevenlourie News

By Benjamin Collins

The new NFL season doesn’t begin until September of this year, but already the odds and futures betting for the new season have started, which reflects the popularity of betting on the NFL amongst fans of both the sport and gambling. However, although it can be hard to resist getting in on the action early, by putting down bets on the winners of the AFC, NFC and Super Bowl well in advance, it is worth at least considering whether that is the smartest way of betting on the NFL.

After all, should you hold off until the season has started you will get the opportunity to see whether pre-season favourites like the New England Patriots (3/1 for the AFC and 8/1 for the Super Bowl), and the San Francisco 49ers (9/2 for the NFC and 8/1 for the Super Bowl) actually produce the form to justify these odds. If they do their odds will remain at the same level, while if they don’t, you can avoid losing out like all those who bet on last season’s pre-season favourites the Denver Broncos. If you are unwilling to wait until the actual season starts, it can at least be advisable to wait until after the draft at the end of April – as this will give you a better idea of how strong the teams will be going into the new season.

The evidence suggests that the Patriots will still be looking strong after the draft, as they have money to spend on strengthening, but the Broncos were clear pre-season favourites last time round. Waiting before betting can pay dividends, and there are plenty of other options – such as the $5 Million Touchdown NFL slots game available at an online casino site – to keep you amused while you are waiting. From the reel icons shaped like football players, whistles and cheerleaders, to the bonus game involving passing a ball to score a touchdown – this game has everything for NFL fans. It should also appeal to betting fans in general, thanks to the huge maximum cash jackpot that can potentially be won by playing it.

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Kansas City Chiefs sign CB Dunta Robinson

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The Chiefs’ grade for signing Robinson depends on how they plan to use him. At this point in his career, 31 next month, Robinson has a very specific set of strengths. He’s never been a great on man coverage cornerback. Even in Houston, he allowed way too many receptions in one in one coverage on the outside to be comfortable and he didn’t get any better in Atlanta after they threw all that money at him. However, he’s one of the better run stopping cornerbacks in the NFL and has always been much better on the slot in the seam than covering outside the numbers. He didn’t get to play much in that role last season due to injuries, but whenever he has in the past, he’s been very solid and even requested personally that he be moved there last season, after the team acquired Asante Samuel, before the season ending injury to Brent Grimes.

The Chiefs are rumored to have signed him to play free safety in sub packages and then move to slot cornerback on passing downs, which is his best role at this point in his career. Charles Woodson and Ronde Barber had great seasons in this role last season and Antoine Winfield of the Vikings is expected to make a similar transition this season. Devin McCourty of the Patriots and Casey Hayward of the Packers are two younger cornerbacks we could see in that role next season. The financials for this deal, 3 year, 15 million, with just 4 million guaranteed, suggest that he’ll play in that role, rather than outside as a starting cornerback, and the Chiefs do have a need at both cornerback and free safety.

I like that he got just 4 million guaranteed because he is a well below average cover cornerback, but I can’t give them an A for this signing because we don’t know how they’ll use him and also Robinson playing in that role likely means Javier Arenas is locked into a starting cornerback slot outside. Arenas took over as a starter when the team cut Stanford Routt last season, but played better football when he was a 3rd cornerback than a starter and probably would have also been more comfortable on the slot.

Grade: B

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Atlanta Falcons re-sign S William Moore

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I was worried that Falcons would pay William Moore in that Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Eric Weddle, Michael Griffin range of young safeties who have gotten multi-year deals in the past 2 years, when that’s not the type of player he is. He’s not an elite safety and wouldn’t have been deserving of the franchise tag that the Falcons were rumored to be considering using on him, before ultimately opting against it.

This 5-year, 30 million dollar deal, with 14 million guaranteed is noticeably less total and guaranteed money than the aforementioned safeties and I think it’s a very reasonable deal for him. ProFootballFocus’ 21st rated safety last season, Moore has graded out as an above average player in each of the last two years, but has never played at an elite level and has his share of injury issues in the past. 14 million is a little bit too much guaranteed for someone with Moore’s injury history, but all in all, I think this is a solid deal for a solid player.

Grade: B

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Buffalo Bills re-sign CB Leodis McKelvin

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The 4-year, 20 million dollar deal the Bills gave McKelvin contains 7.5 million guaranteed and is an overpay just because I don’t know who else would have shelled out that kind of dough for him. However, it’s very possible he ends up being worth that for them. He’s a dynamic returner who led the NFL in punt return average last year, bringing back 23 for 431 yards and 2 touchdowns, as well as 18 kickoffs for 510 yards.

However, not only is he an All-Pro return man, as voted on by the Pro Football Writers of America, but he played well in limited action at cornerback. An injury prone bust as the 11th overall pick in 2008, McKelvin has only once played more than 514 snaps in a seaon in his 5-year contract, but he’s graded out as a slightly above average cornerback when healthy in each of the past 2 years and he provides solid depth and a valuable insurance option should 2011 2nd round pick Aaron Williams struggle for the 3rd straight year in 2013.

If McKelvin can stay healthy and take over for a predictably struggling Williams again in 2013, this time for good, I don’t think this type of money is ridiculous for a solid starting cornerback who provides incredible value on special teams as well. That’s a pretty big if and it is a lot of money to spend to find out, probably a good deal more than anyone else would have given him, and elite pure special teamers have a very short shelf life, which is why it’s very hard to like this move, but it makes sense. I’m giving it a C, even though I feel like last year or a couple years ago I would have destroyed this move, but I don’t find it awful now. Maybe I’ve gone soft.

Grade: C

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Miami Dolphins re-sign WR Brian Hartline

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Brian Hartline had a 1000 yard breakout season last year, catching 74 passes for 1083 yards, after combining for 109 catches for 1670 yards in his first 3 years in the league after going in the 4th round of the 2009 NFL Draft out of Ohio State. However, those numbers are deceiving. First, he only scored just once all season. Second, he was incredibly inconsistent. Close to a quarter of his production game in one game against Arizona, where he caught 12 passes for 253 yards and his only score on the season. Two weeks later, against St. Louis, he wasn’t even targeted. He had 5 games with 2 or fewer catches.

He was really only a 1000 yard receiver by default given how thin the Dolphins were at receiver. He was far and away better than the rest of their receivers, but that’s not saying much. He was heavily targeted, 118 times, and only 6 receivers were targeted more often and had fewer yards. He also provides very little after the catch, 3.4 yards per catch, and broke just 2 tackles all season. He is sure handed and had one of the league’s better catch to drop ratios, but all in all, he was just ProFootballFocus’ 37th rated receiver last year, not even taking into account his inconsistency.

The Dolphins are rightfully looking to spend big money on a #1 receiver to play opposite Hartline, allowing Hartline to serve as a solid, sure handed #2 opposite him. Given that and his one year of good production, 5 years, 30.775 million with 12.5 million guaranteed is a bit of an overpay (that’s low end #1 receiver money, considering Steve Johnson got 5 years, 36.25 million with 18.05 million guaranteed last off-season), but the Dolphins needed to bring back young Ryan Tannehill’s favorite receiver and they have some cap room to play with, so I don’t hate the move.

Grade: B

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Kansas City Chiefs cut OT Eric Winston

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I don’t normally talk about teams cutting players, but this one is a big deal. Just two day after franchising left tackle Branden Albert, the Chiefs have cut right tackle Eric Winston. The first thing this means is that the Chiefs are almost definitely locked into one of two offensive tackles, Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher, #1 overall.

Cutting Eric Winston doesn’t save them much on the cap (700K) and it’s not like they were pressed for cap room anyway. Winston is more than a fine player and you don’t cut a player like that unless you desperately need the cap room or you have access to someone who can easily replace him. The Chiefs don’t seem to have anyone like that inside the organization, after 2012 3rd round pick Donald Stephenson was awful in limited action last season, so the obvious assumption is that they are planning on taking one through the draft. Of course, that’s assuming the Chiefs are being logical.

I don’t see this move as being logical at all. I agree that Luke Joeckel is the top player in this draft class and, though some in the know do feel Eric Fisher is the better player, it’s much more likely that Joeckel is the Chiefs’ guy. However, Joeckel is not far and away better than every other prospect in this draft class. He’s not someone you have to have so much that you create a need for him by cutting a very good player. Sharrif Floyd, DeMarcus Milliner, and Star Lotulelei are all “inferior” prospects by most people’s belief, but they would all have helped the Chiefs much more than Joeckel and they’re all very good prospects.

Dion Jordan is a very talented player. If the Chiefs graded him out as the top player in this draft class, should they have cut either Tamba Hali or Justin Houston to make room for him? Of course not. Those are two of the better bookend pass rushers in the NFL. The same could be said about Albert and Winston: two of the better bookend tackles in the NFL last year, allowing 5 sacks between them last year and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 17th and 9th rated left and right tackles respectively. Albert would have been higher if he hadn’t missed 4 ½ games with injury. In 2011, when he played all 16 games, he was 12th among left tackles.

Conversely, they had a major need on the defensive line for someone like Shariff Floyd or Star Lotulelei, even after restructuring the contract of Tyson Jackson. Among Chief defensive linemen, only free agent Glenn Dorsey graded out positively last season and Jackson, while not awful, was the worst of the bunch. He can anchor against the run, but should really be taken out in sub packages. They don’t have an obvious starter opposite him either.

If they had felt DeMarcus Milliner was this draft’s top player after Joeckel, he would have made a lot of sense for them from a needs stand point as well. You need three corners in today’s NFL and with Brandon Flowers and Javier Arenas, the Chiefs really only have two. Getting rid of Winston, moving Albert to right tackle, and drafting Luke Joeckel doesn’t provide nearly as much value. Trading down, if possible, would have been ideal, as perhaps a team like Philadelphia would have surrendered a 2nd round pick to move up to grab Joeckel, allowing them to recoup the pick they lost in the Alex Smith trade.

And if you were going to let one of Albert or Winston go, why not Albert? Winston was the cheaper of the two players and you save a lot more cap space by not franchising Albert than by cutting Eric Winston, around 9 million assuming the Chiefs don’t sign Albert long term. Winston is also a more natural right tackle than Albert, who made 77 starts as a pro on the blindside and none on the right side. As far as I can tell, Albert also never made a start at right tackle at Virginia either, where he was primarily a left guard.

Right tackle may be the “easier” of the two tackle positions, but you can’t just move someone there and expect him to play at the same high level he was playing at on the left side. You also can’t expect him to be happy about the move and he’s made it known, for good reason, that he does not want to change positions. That’s not a good thing. There is also a little bit more of an injury concern with Albert than Winston, who hasn’t missed a game since his 2006 rookie season.

There’s always the possibility that the Chiefs leave Albert at left tackle, start Joeckel at right, and then part ways with Albert at the end of next season, moving Joeckel to the blindside, but why pick Albert over Winston if you’re going to part ways with him after one more season? This whole situation doesn’t make sense. The Chiefs have a lot of talent and I like the move to acquire Alex Smith, who, though unspectacular, is a massive upgrade over Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel and will let their talent shine through. However, they really seem to be bungling this offensive line situation. Winston will make his next team very happy. A return to Houston would make a lot of sense for both parties.

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Kansas City Chiefs re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe

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I don’t have a strong opinion on this move. It was a buyer’s market at wide receiver this off-season, but your own guy is always more valuable to you than anyone else. Bowe will be learning a new offensive system and playing with a new quarterback this year in Kansas City with Andy Reid and Alex Smith coming in, but Smith is arguably the best quarterback he’s ever had (not a huge compliment to Smith) and he’s by far the Chiefs’ best receiver.

The Chiefs got Bowe for 5 years, 50 million with 24 million guaranteed, all less than Vincent Jackson got last off-season at a similar age. Bowe has more catches, yards, and touchdowns than Jackson did when he hit free agency last off-season and he did so despite never having a consistent quarterback. There are concerns about his attitude and drops, but I like the Chiefs re-signing Bowe more than I liked the Buccaneers signing Vincent Jackson. Of course, Jackson went on to have the best season of his career in Tampa Bay this last season, but still this is a solid move by the Chiefs. They aren’t getting a huge bargain on him or anything, but he’s their only receiver of note and they would have had trouble replacing him if they needed to.

Bowe’s deal also allowed the Chiefs to franchise Branden Albert, which I think was the right move. As talented as Luke Joeckel is, you’re, at best, making a lateral move drafting him #1 overall and letting Albert go because Albert is already a solid left tackle. While Joeckel would have been cheaper and younger, he would have been less of a sure thing and now they have the 1st overall pick freed up to use on whoever they want. They may end up taking a “lesser” prospect than Joeckel, but even if they take someone like Sharrif Floyd who actually fills a massive need, they’ll still be getting a very good player.

This also allows them to trade down with someone like Philadelphia if possible, which could allow them to get back the 2nd round pick they lost in the Alex Smith deal, which will make that move a little bit better. I haven’t loved every single one of the Chiefs’ moves this off-season, but at least it seems like they have a plan. They weren’t a typical 2-14 team last year. They have a lot of talent. Andy Reid and Alex Smith might be “retreads” but they’ll stabilize the Head Coach and quarterback spots and allow the rest of their talent to shine. Now that they’ve brought back Bowe and Albert, two key parts of that talent, for next season, they could definitely make the playoffs in a very weak AFC with a last place schedule in an easy division.

Grade: B

How this will affect the draft: Just when it seemed like we could start to all agree on the #1 pick and that Luke Joeckel would be the guy, Branden Albert is returning to Kansas City. It doesn’t rule Joeckel out as the #1 pick (more on that in a bit) as he is close to the consensus top talent in this draft class, but he’s hardly the consensus #1 pick he once looked like. As far as I see it, there are 4 candidates for the top pick. Some people will argue Chance Warmack and Eric Fisher in there as well, but I highly doubt a guard would go #1 and Fisher, while he has some supporters who believe he is this draft class’ top left tackle, is much less likely to go there than Joeckel. Let’s look at the options.

OT Luke Joeckel: I’ll start with him, since I already mentioned him. Andy Reid believes in building in the trenches, taking an offensive and defensive lineman with his 1st pick in 8 of his last 10 drafts. Albert has yet to even sign the one-year tender and probably won’t until the summer and he’s certainly not signed long term. The Chiefs can rescind the tender after draft day if they choose to and Albert hasn’t signed by then (it’s unlikely he does).

It’s possible they just tagged him to give themselves more time to evaluate the top level talent in this draft class and that if Joeckel turns out to be that guy, they’ll let him go either by rescinding the tender or trading him. They could have also tagged him with the intention of trading him fairly immediately. They could also have tagged him because they wanted him back for another year, but didn’t want to commit to him long term because of his back. They could have also tagged him with the intention of signing him long term to play either right tackle or another position (unlikely, but still). They could have tagged him just because they thought he was worth the tag and if they think Joeckel is worth the 1st overall pick they’ll make it work. He’s not ruled out.

At the end of the day, however, offensive line is not an issue for them. Albert and right tackle Eric Winston were both above average starters at their respective positions last season and are too expensive to be moved inside to guard. Joeckel, meanwhile, will be too high of a draft pick to move to guard. Right guard is already stabilized with Jon Asamoah, as is center with Rodney Hudson. Jeff Allen struggled at left guard last year as a rookie, but he was a 2nd round pick and deserves another shot. They have a very solid starting 5 on the line right now. I don’t see how Joeckel fits if Albert isn’t traded by draft day unless they plan on rescinding the tender. That’s not unheard of. The Seahawks did so in 2009 with LeRoy Hill after taking Aaron Curry, but they still re-signed Hill a few days later to a long term deal. For now, however, I don’t think Luke Joeckel is the most likely option at #1 for the Chiefs.

CB DeMarcus Milliner: Right now, I think he’s a long shot, but he is in the conversation. A cornerback has never gone #1 overall and one hasn’t even gone in the top-4 since 1997. Milliner is talented, but he’s hardly the once in a generational prospect you’d expect to break that trend. However, because of the nature of this draft, it could happen just because he does happen to fill a need at #1 for the Chiefs and could arguably grade out as the best available or one of the best available.

DL Star Lotulelei: This is, of course, pending his heart checking out at his Pro Day. Lotulelei wasn’t diagnosed with a heart issue at The Combine. He just failed his physical and was told to get further testing. It’s very possible his heart issue was caused by dehydration and not a chronic condition or anything that will hinder him in the pros. However, it’s possible that, heart issue or no heart issue, he’s been passed by…

DL Sharrif Floyd: Floyd was a surprise declare and teams weren’t very familiar with him when he first came out, but after they’ve had 2 months to watch tape on him, it seems they’ve all come to the same conclusion: that he’ll be a top-5 pick. Because of that and because he’d fill a massive need for the Chiefs, he’s an obvious candidate for the #1 pick. Andy Reid loves his linemen.

The only concern with Floyd is some feel he’s a better fit in a 3-4 than a 4-3, though he did play both at Florida. I think he’s more Marcell Dareus. Some think he’s more Glenn Dorsey. However, while Lotulelei could be the pick if his medical is clean, I think there’s a much greater chance that, on draft day, Floyd is their highest rated defensive lineman and the #1 overall pick for the Chiefs, which is why that’s where he’ll be in my next mock draft, barring any more surprises.

The other option and probably the Chiefs’ preference is to trade down with someone like Philadelphia, as I mentioned. If I were them, I’d throw the trade value chart out the window to do so because the difference between the 1st pick and the 4th pick is barely anything for the Chiefs, unless they happen to love one prospect. I’d move down for a 2nd round pick, whereas the chart says to take nothing less than the 12th pick. The key is to try to make Philadelphia think Joeckel won’t still be there at 4, which actually could happen since Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland all have solid or better left tackles. This is also contingent on Philadelphia not seeing Eric Fisher as a comparable or better left tackle. We’ll see what happens.

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Kansas City Chiefs re-sign P Dustin Colquitt

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I don’t normally grade punter signings, but Dustin Colquitt got the richest contract in NFL history by a punter, signing for 18.75 million over 5 years with 8.9 million guaranteed. Ordinarily, it’s a mistake to commit that much money to a specialist like a punter, but if you’re going to do it, it makes a lot more sense to do so with a punter than a kicker because punters don’t have the same year to year and even game to game volatility that a kicker has. As far as punters go, there were better choices to be the highest paid punter of all-time, but not by a lot. Colquitt was ProFootballFocus’ 6th rated punter this season and he has been a top-10 punter in each of the last four seasons, something only Andy Lee and Brandon Fields can also say. I wouldn’t say I love this move, but it’s not terrible.

Grade: B

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2008 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Miami Dolphins- QB Joe Flacco (Delaware)

There was nothing wrong with taking Jake Long #1 overall in 2008. However, the Dolphins made the playoffs in just one of his five seasons so far and that was the one year Chad Pennington explicably finished as the runner up in MVP*. Long might not have been the wrong choice, but in a re-draft like this using full hindsight, you’re always going to take a franchise quarterback before you take anything else if one is available. Flacco and Ryan is a debate, but I have to lean with the former after his recent Super Bowl victory.

*=How weird was 2008? Brett Favre came out of retirement in July and was traded to the Jets and was on the cover of Madden as a retired Packer. Favre pushed Pennington out of New York and he was signed by division rival Miami. Even though he hadn’t done anything noteworthy since 2004, Pennington game managed the Dolphins to the greatest single season turnaround in NFL history, going from 1 win in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008. Pennington was, of course, helped by the wildcat, a phenomenon that led to new Head Coach Tony Sparano being billed as an offensive genius and to Pat White getting selected in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft and never throwing a pass in one season with the Dolphins.

The Dolphins’ 11 wins won the Dolphins the AFC East over Brett Favre, who led the NFL in turnovers, and the Jets, and Matt Cassel and the Patriots, who had gone 16-0 the year before, but lost Tom Brady to a torn ACL week 1. Still, the Patriots somehow won 11 games, but failed to make the playoffs at all, the first time in the wild card era a team had won 11 games and not made the playoffs. The following year, with Brady healthy, they would win just 10 games and win the entire division.

Meanwhile, back to 2008, Pennington’s Dolphins would get bounced at home in the first round of the playoffs by rookie Joe Flacco and the Ravens 27-9, a game in which Pennington threw 4 interceptions, more than half of the 7 he had thrown all season. Flacco would beat the Titans the following week to become the first quarterback in NFL history to win two playoff games in his rookie year. The following week, the Ravens lost to the Steelers, but Joe Flacco could still hold his head high knowing he had guided the Ravens to the AFC Championship as a rookie before losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Steelers. Except for the fact that, you know, Joe Flacco completed just 44% of his passes that post-season and threw 3 interceptions to 1 touchdown. And yes, this was 2008, not 1968.

Pennington’s efforts earned him a 2nd place finish in MVP. He would go on to attempt just 76 passes the rest of his career. Pennington finished 2nd in MVP voting despite throwing for just 3653 yards and 19 touchdowns. And again I repeat, this was 2008 not 1968. Though a down year for quarterback production across the board, possibly due to the fact that the league was missing one of its premier signal callers with injury, Pennington finished just 12th in the NFL in passing touchdowns and 9th in passing yards. Drew Brees, meanwhile, threw for 5000+ yards for just the 2nd time in NFL history, to go with 34 touchdowns, but because he missed the playoffs due to a terrible defense, Brees, my MVP pick that year, did not get a single 1st place MVP vote.

Peyton Manning won the MVP that year with 27 touchdowns and passing 4002 yards. Those 4002 yards to this day are still the 3rd fewest yards he’s ever thrown for in a season in his 14 year NFL career and those 27 touchdowns were tied for the 4th lowest he’s ever thrown in a season. 2008 was also just the 3rd season since Peyton Manning’s rookie year that the Colts didn’t win the division and the 2nd time since we switched to 4 team divisions.

The AFC South was won that year by the Titans, who somehow inexplicably won 13 games despite a Vince Young suicide scare and Kerry Collins subsequently starting 15 games at quarterback. The 36 year old Collins threw for just 12 touchdowns and 2676 passing yards on that 13-3 team and once again I repeat this was 2008 and not 1968. And if that’s not enough for you, the Cardinals made and almost won the Super Bowl, losing to the Steelers and Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes, who would be traded to the Jets for a 5th round pick 14 months later. Also, it was the last season this website didn’t exist and I wrote all of my thoughts on something that looked like this. 2008 was weird.

2. St. Louis Rams- QB Matt Ryan (Boston College)

Again, nothing wrong with Chris Long here, but the Rams haven’t made the playoffs once in his five seasons with the team. In hindsight, the Rams would take whichever of this draft’s two franchise quarterbacks the Dolphins pass on.

3. Atlanta Falcons- OT Duane Brown (Virginia Tech)

The Falcons miss out on both franchise quarterbacks, but left tackles do have a ton of value as well and the Falcons needed one as well in 2008, taking Sam Baker with the 21st overall pick. Brown gets the nod over Jake Long. While Brown was extended for 6 years, 53.4 million last season (which I thought was a bargain), Long’s recent injury history has led to the Dolphins making the decision to let him test the open market. Brown is arguably the NFL’s best all-around left tackle, as no other player has ranked in ProFootballFocus’ top-5 offensive tackles in both 2011 and 2012. Only Joe Thomas has ranked in the top-7 both years.

4. Oakland Raiders- OT Jake Long (Michigan)

Quarterbacks, left tackles, and defensive ends are by far the most popular position atop drafts because of their high position value and that remains the case in this one. Long picked a bad time to start having injury issues, as he heads into free agency, but remember he did make the Pro-Bowl in his first 4 seasons before 2012. The Raiders, who allowed 41 sacks in 2007, take him here to shore up their left tackle position.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- DE Chris Long (Virginia)

Continuing with the quarterback/offensive tackle/defensive end trend, the Chiefs take Chris Long here. They had recently traded Jared Allen and would go on to record an unfathomably terrible 10 sacks the following season. They ran a 4-3 at the time before switching to a 3-4 and while there are questions about how Long would fit in a 3-4, I think you have to take him here in hindsight.

6. New York Jets- 3-4 DE Calais Campbell (Miami)

Sticking with high positional value players, Campbell is a 3-4 end rather than a 4-3 end, but he still makes a huge impact on the game. He’s not a big sack number guy, but he always gets consistent pressure from an interior position and is great against the run. The Jets had the right idea taking a front 7 player for their 3-4 defense in 2008, after ranking 25th in sacks and 20th against the run in 2007, but Vernon Gholston obviously didn’t pan out as he never managed a single sack in his 3-year NFL career, all with the Jets.

7. New Orleans Saints- CB Brandon Flowers (Virginia Tech)

In 2008, the Saints went 8-8 despite Drew Brees throwing for 5,000 yards. In 2012, the Saints went 7-9 despite Drew Brees throwing for 5,000 yards. Seeing some sort of trend? Their defense hasn’t always been horrendous (there’s a reason they won the Super Bowl in 2009), but they’ve always needed secondary help and they definitely could have used a shutdown cornerback like Brandon Flowers all along. He would have immediately helped what was the league’s worst pass defense in 2007.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- OT Ryan Clady (Boise State)

Back to left tackles, the Jaguars would take a fine left tackle by the name of Eugene Monroe in the 1st round in 2009. Let’s give them one a year earlier. Clady hasn’t always been as consistent and well- rounded as Duane Brown and Jake Long, but he’s submitted some excellent seasons and should command a fair price in an extension this off-season after being franchise tagged.

9. Cincinnati Bengals- RB Ray Rice (Rutgers)

In 2007, the Bengals were 28th in the NFL in YPC with Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson splitting carries and then in 2008 they were 30th as Chris Perry and Cedric Benson split carries. Benson would have better seasons, but neither he nor BenJarvus Green-Ellis, their 2012 starting running back, have ever been anything more than plodders. I bet the Bengals would have preferred to have stolen Ray Rice away from division rival Baltimore in the 2008 NFL Draft instead.

10. New England Patriots- CB Brandon Carr (Grand Valley State)

Jerod Mayo was a fine pick here, but from 2008 to 2012 the Patriots used 1st or 2nd round picks on 6 defensive backs, Terrence Wheatley, Patrick Chung, Darius Butler, Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, and Tavon Wilson and only got one 2012 starter out of it. Let’s save them the embarrassment and help Tom Brady win a 4th ring by giving the Patriots an actual shutdown cornerback.

11. Buffalo Bills- DE Cliff Avril (Purdue)

From 2007-2011, the Bills had 138 sacks, an average of about 27 and a half per season. They managed to get into the middle of the pack with 36 in 2012 after signing Mario Williams, but he only shored up one defensive end spot. They would have loved to have gotten a pass rusher like Cliff Avril out of the 2008 NFL Draft. In 5 seasons, Avril has 39.5 sacks, including 28 in the last 3 seasons.

12. Denver Broncos- OLB Jerod Mayo (Tennessee)

The Broncos were 2nd to last in the NFL against the run in 2007, 30th in 2008, 27th in 2009, and 29th in 2010. They definitely could have used a tackling machine like Jerod Mayo.

13. Carolina Panthers- WR Jordy Nelson (Kansas State)

The Panthers have been searching for a complement for Steve Smith for years. Dwayne Jarrett, Brandon LaFell, Armanti Edwards, David Gettis, Kealoha Pilares, Joe Adams, none of these guys have really worked out. LaFell is the best of the bunch and he’s marginal at best. Nelson would have not only given them a complement, but an eventual heir apparent, a huge need now as Smith will turn 34 in May.

14. Chicago Bears- RB Matt Forte (Tulane)

The Bears actually took Forte in the 2nd round, but they won’t get him there in a re-draft. I don’t think they would mind using their first round pick to lock him up, especially since they used this pick originally on mega-bust Chris Williams.

15. Kansas City Chiefs- OT Branden Albert (Virginia)

It’s interesting how the Chiefs’ first pick, Glenn Dorsey, completely busted, but still 4 of the top-16 players in this re-draft (we’ll get to the 4th in a minute) were drafted by the Chiefs. How did Romeo Crennel screw this up so badly that they managed to go 2-14 last season? Anyway, Branden Albert gets overshadowed by some of the other tackles in this class and he struggled in his first 2-3 years in the league, but over the last 2 years he’s blossomed into a legitimate left tackle and those are hard to come by. Given the way this draft has gone, I think the Chiefs would do it all over again with Albert if they had to.

16. Arizona Cardinals- RB Jamaal Charles (Texas)

Here’s the 4th Chief. I can’t shake the feeling that Jamaal Charles is a top-5 back in the NFL in terms of talent. Yes, he’s had injury issues and has never been trusted by a Head Coach to carry the load, but remember who he’s had as Head Coaches, Herm Edwards, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel. Haley gave him fewer carries in 2010 than Thomas Jones even though Charles almost set the single season record for yards for carries. He was averaging a good 2.5 yards per carry more than Jones. Last year, Charles got 5 carries in a loss to the Raiders and when asked why after the game, Romeo Crennel’s answer was “I don’t know.”

Sure, he’s had just 784 carries in 5 seasons, but his career 5.8 YPC is MOST ALL-TIME of back with more than 500 career carries. After him, it’s Marion Motley, a fullback, linebacker, and kick returner who I think wore a leather helmet (1946-1955), Bo Jackson, one of the greatest athletes the world has ever seen, and some dude named Spec Sanders who also served as his team’s punter (1946-1950). Why do his coaches never give him the ball?! You might not think things will get better with Andy Reid coming in, but while Andy Reid hates to run the football, when he does, he’s faithful to one back and his playbook has enough passes to backs that Charles should be able to surpass his career high of 320 touches in a season.

Anyway, enough about Charles and more about why the Cardinals would pick him. In 2007, the Cardinals were led in carries by a 84-year-old 29-year-old Edgerrin James, who averaged 3.8 yards per carry and then, after they somehow made the Super Bowl with James splitting carries with Tim Hightower in 2008, the Cardinals wasted a 1st round pick on Beanie Wells in 2009. Charles saves that whole mess from happening and gives them the franchise back they haven’t had in seemingly forever.

17. Detroit Lions- G Carl Nicks (Nebraska)

The Lions used this original pick on an offensive lineman, Gosder Cherilus, who wasn’t any good until his contract year in 2012. In this re-draft, they use it on a better offensive lineman, albeit at a less important position. Guards rarely go this high, but that’s because, unless they turn out to be Pro-Bowlers, they’re not worth the pick. In hindsight though, we know Nicks has made a pair of Pro-Bowls, gotten a massive contract from the Buccaneers, and is all-around one of the best interior lineman in the NFL. He makes a lot of sense here to a Lions team that allowed the 9th most sacks in the NFL in 2007.

18. Baltimore Ravens- RB Chris Johnson (East Carolina)

The Ravens miss out on Ray Rice, but they’ll still have to upgrade their running back position as Willis McGahee was nearing the end of his time as a feature back in Baltimore. Chris Johnson is tough to slot. His 2009 was one of the greatest seasons by a running back ever, but everything else has been a mixed bag. Sure, he hasn’t had great blocking always, but then again, he’s still a running back and running backs don’t have a high positional value because of their interchangibility and their short shelf life. I think he makes sense for the Ravens.

19. Carolina Panthers- S Tyron Branch (Connecticut)

The Panthers have had issues in the secondary recently, especially at safety. Drafting Branch in the first round in 2008 would have helped solve those issues as Branch has been one of the league’s best, getting franchised last off-season and eventually signing a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- WR DeSean Jackson (California)

I remember I originally mocked Jackson to the Buccaneer in 2008. It made a lot of sense. Starting receivers Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard were heading into their age 37 and 32 seasons respectively in 2008 and no one else on the 2007 Buccaneers had more than 385 receiving yards. In 2008, the only receiver who had more than 484 receiving yards was Antonio Bryant, who fell off the face of the earth and caught just 36 passes the rest of his career. They could have used a borderline #1 receiver like DeSean Jackson.

21. Atlanta Falcons- WR Steve Johnson (Kentucky)

The Falcons eventually solved the wide receiver position opposite Roddy White in 2011 with Julio Jones, but remember all those years they were pretending Michael Jenkins was a caliber starting receiver? Jenkins never surpassed 777 receiving yards in his career and only twice surpassed 532 receiving yards. Johnson took a little bit to develop, but he would have solved their wide receiver problem faster than Jones would have and saved the Falcons some extra picks in 2011 and 2012.

22. Dallas Cowboys- WR Pierre Garcon (Mount Union)

The Cowboys would trade a 2009 1st round pick and 2009 3rd round pick to the Lions during the 2008 season for Roy Williams, which was remembered as the only time Matt Millen ever won a trade (damn 2008 was weird). Using the 22nd pick in 2008 on a receiver like Pierre Garcon would have saved them from that embarrassment and the embarrassment of using this pick on Felix Jones.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers- C John Sullivan (Notre Dame)

The Steelers have used two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks in the last 3 drafts on offensive linemen, but before that they had a real problem upfront. Sullivan would have shored up the center spot for them. He’s not a well-known player because he’s a center, but he’s the only player who has been a top-3 center on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 2 seasons and he’s one of the best centers in the NFL behind Nick Mangold.

24. Tennessee Titans- RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas)

McFadden was also tough to place. He’s electric when healthy, but when does that ever happen? Plus, this year, even before he got hurt, it looked like injuries had permanently sapped most of his explosiveness, though that may have just been the Raiders’ terrible zone blocking scheme. Anyway, the Titans take a chance on him here to replace Chris Johnson, their original pick at this spot.

25. Dallas Cowboys- MLB Curtis Lofton (Oklahoma)

Akin Ayodele and Bradie James started at middle linebacker for the Cowboys in 2007. They brought Zach Thomas over from Miami in the off-season for the 2008 season, but he was heading into his age 35 season anyway and would retire afterwards. Let’s give them a young middle linebacker for their 3-4 defense.

26. Houston Texans- S Kenny Phillips (Miami)

Before the days of Wade Phillips, the Texans had a truly horrific defense, especially in the secondary. Someone like Kenny Phillips, as injury prone as he is, would have been much welcomed.

27. San Diego Chargers- OT Sam Baker (USC)

AJ Smith only once used a pick higher than the 3rd round on an offensive lineman in his tenure in San Diego, which spanned over 9 drafts. It really showed towards the end of his tenure and now offensive line is easily their biggest need. Baker has been up and down so far in his career, but still deserves to go in the 1st round in a re-draft. He could have played right tackle for the Chargers, always a huge need, and played on the left side when needed, which has been pretty frequently over the past 2 seasons.

28. Seattle Seahawks- DE Red Bryant (Texas A&M)

I don’t think Red Bryant would have as much value to anyone else as he does to the Seahawks because of his very specific role on their defensive line, but I don’t think the Seahawks would mind using a 1st round pick to lock him up here in this re-draft, especially after originally using this pick on Lawrence Jackson, who played just 2 seasons with the Seahawks before Pete Carroll dealt him to the Lions for a mid-round pick before the 2010 season.

29. San Francisco 49ers- C Brian La Puente (California)

Brian La Puente would have gone closer to where Sullivan went if he had more than one good season, but he was actually ProFootballFocus’ 2nd rated center this year for the Saints. The 49ers could have used a center like that before settling on veteran Jonathan Goodwin recently. The 49ers probably would have given La Puente playing time sooner and that could have really been good for him.

30. New York Jets- TE Dustin Keller (Purdue)

I hate not changing a pick, but this is the only time I’m doing it and I don’t know a better fit here than giving Dustin Keller back to the Jets. He was their leading receiver in 2011 and they really missed him as he battled injuries in 2012. Unfortunately because of their miserable cap situation, his tenure with the Jets is likely done.

31. New York Giants- S Thomas DeCoud (California)

The Giants originally used this pick on Kenny Phillips. DeCoud isn’t as good as Phillips, but he would have been more reliable and Phillips isn’t available anyway. Don’t let DeCoud’s 6 interceptions in 2012 fool you. He had just 8 in his first 4 seasons and is among the worst tackling safeties in the NFL. Still, he’s good enough here to go to the Giants at a position of need.

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Top-10 Best Contracts in the NFL

stevenlourie News

Top-10 best contracts in the NFL

1. QB Russell Wilson (Seattle): 3 years, 1.987 million remaining

You could make a case for Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin here, but Luck and Griffin are making 3 times as much money as Wilson and Wilson has still two more years left on his deal before he becomes eligible for a monster extension, while Kaepernick will probably get one next off-season.

2. QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco): 2 years, 1.713 million remaining

Kaepernick will probably get a monster extension next off-season, but for now the 49ers can enjoy having him signed for less than a million dollars for 2013. He’s not necessarily a better player than Luck and Griffin, but if you take salaries into account, I think Kaepernick has to be the choice.

3. QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis): 3 years, 7.198 million remaining

Griffin won Rookie of the Year over Luck and rightfully so and he’s also a little bit cheaper than Luck, but long term, I think it’d rather have Luck than Griffin solely because of Griffin’s knees. Griffin’s chances of a career ending injury sometime in the next 5 years are infinitely greater than Luck’s, unfortunately.

4. QB Robert Griffin (Washington): 3 years, 6.928 million remaining

However, Griffin still checks in at #4 and I would argue, totally healthy, he’s the best player of the 4 mentioned thus far. The Redskins built their entire offense around him and mortgaged their entire future for him by giving up 3 1st rounders and he delivered, at least before he got hurt, dragging his team into the playoffs and having 8 combined interceptions and fumbles to Luck’s 27. He also didn’t have nearly the supporting cast Wilson and Kaepernick had.

5. DE JJ Watt (Houston): 2 years, 3.304 million remaining

Watt can’t be in the top-4 because he’s not a quarterback and, at the end of the day, you’d rather have a ridiculously cheap, ridiculously young, ridiculously talented quarterback than anyone at any other position. However, Watt forced himself into the top-5 by submitting arguably the best single season a defensive lineman has ever had last year and doing so at the age of 23. Watt almost broke Michael Strahan’s single season sack record and did so from an interior position and set the NFL single season record for most combined sacks and swats. He was also ProFootballFocus’ highest rated player in their 5 year history.

6. QB Tom Brady (New England): 5 years, 57 million remaining

Sure he’s making a lot more than the 5 guys named above him, but anytime you can get a proven Super Bowl quarterback for the deal Brady just gave the Patriots, you have to be pretty happy about that. Plus, while the 5 guys listed above will all get massive extensions in the next 2-3 years, Brady will be signed this cheaply for the rest of his career. Yeah, he’s older, but he’s arguably more valuable right now than any of the 5 mentioned above and in 2-3 years he’ll still be cheaper than all of them. For that reason, you could actually make a case for him at #1.

7. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay): 2 years, 19.75 million remaining

I’m not saying Brady is a better player than Rodgers (it’s a debate) or that he’s younger (not a debate) and or that currently makes less per season (also not a debate). However, while Brady is locked in at his current salary for the remainder of his career, Rodgers will likely become the highest paid player in NFL history sometime in the next 2 off-seasons as his current bargain of a contract reaches its end.

8. OLB Von Miller (Denver): 2 years, 5.523 million remaining

None of these remaining three players are franchise quarterbacks or JJ Watt, but they’re still ridiculous bargains. Miller was the only other player to receive a defensive player of the year vote this season other than Watt and 9 times out of 10, he would have won it. Like Watt, he still has one more ridiculously cheap year before he’s eligible for a massive extension.

9. OLB Aldon Smith (San Francisco): 2 years, 4.019 million remaining

Miller gets the nod over Smith because, while he’s more expensive, he’s also far less one-dimensional. Smith can get to the quarterback, but doesn’t play the run or cover like Miller and his lack of pass rush production after Justin Smith got hurt late last season is concerning. Still, he’s a fantastic bargain for at least one more year before he’s eligible for a massive extension.

10. DT Geno Atkins (Cincinnati): 1 year, 575K remaining

Atkins, like Miller, would have been the defensive player of the year 9 times out of 10. Atkins’ 2012 was the highest rated season for a defensive lineman not named Watt in ProFootballFocus’ history. Unfortunately, he is eligible for a massive extension this off-season and the Bengals may end up having to pay him a lot more than 575K this season. Because of his position, however, they could let him play out his contract and franchise him fairly inexpensively next off-season. This is the best defensive tackle in the game.

Apologies to:

QB Cam Newton (Carolina): 2 years, 5.755 million remaining

He would have been in the top-10 a year ago, but performances by Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck, and Griffin in 2012 all push him out as he had just a little bit of a sophomore slump in 2012.

OLB Clay Matthews (Green Bay): 1 year, 3.730 million remaining

Like Newton, he would have been in the top-10 last year, but with just one year remaining on his rookie deal, he’ll either get a massive extension this off-season or a massive contract next off-season on the open market or be franchised at a high price. The Packers want to make sure it’s the first one and that he doesn’t hit the open market, but that’s what separates him from the guys in the top-10, with the exception of Geno Atkins. All of those guys will be incredibly cheap for at least one more year.

CB Richard Sherman (Seattle): 2 years, 1.200 million remaining

He might not be the best cornerback in the league (he might be though), but when you consider that he’s under contract for just 550K in 2013 and 650K in 2014, while Darrelle Revis is owed 6 million in 2013 in the final year of his deal and that the Jets may trade him to avoid having to pay him a megadeal, Sherman is easily the best value among the NFL’s cornerbacks. You could easily make a case for him to be in the top-10.

RB Alfred Morris (Washington): 3 years, 1.710 million remaining

Morris is another guy you could make a case for in the top-10. If not for Griffin, Luck, and Wilson, Morris could have easily been rookie of the year this year and he’s signed ridiculously cheaply for at least 2 more years just like the aforementioned trio. However, you can’t ignore his position and the incredibly short shelf life running backs tend to have.

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