Cleveland Browns: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 5-9

Net points per drive: -0.11 (20th)

DVOA: -12.4% (25th)

Weighted DVOA: -5.5% (19th)

That 17 point loss to the Redskins was actually the first time this season the Browns had been blown out. Their previous biggest loss was 14 and their biggest win (23) is still bigger than their biggest loss. Even that 14 point loss wasn’t as bad as the final score looked as they led 14-0 early. They’ve been competitive every week thanks to a solid defense and it’s possible they just overlooked Kirk Cousins and were unprepared for him, after he had been announced as the starter on Saturday. With games in Denver and Pittsburgh left on the schedule, I think they’re done winning games for this season, but they can certainly be competitive in both and if they can ever figure out their offense, they have the defense to compete for a playoff spot.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

SS TJ Ward: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception

Duds

QB Brandon Weeden: 21 of 35 for 244 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 3 batted passes, 69.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 38 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 8, 1 drop, 1 throw away)

C Alex Mack: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty

WR Josh Gordon: Allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 8 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

TE: Ben Watson: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 8 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

MLB D’Qwell Jackson: 6 solo tackles, 4 assists, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 5 catches for 58 yards on 5 attempts

DT Ahytba Rubin: Did not record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 29 (+2)

Record: 5-9

Net points per drive: -0.31 (23rd)

DVOA: -14.7% (26th)

Weighted DVOA: -21.6% (27th)

The Cardinals ended a 9 game losing streak last week and avoided the 4-0 to 4-12 collapse, but they did it almost purely on returns, returning two interceptions for touchdowns and returning a muffed punt to the Detroit 5, for an easy score. Ryan Lindley still didn’t look like he even belonged in the league, let alone starting, and with games against Chicago and San Francisco left on the schedule, they probably won’t win another game.

Studs

LT Nate Potter: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

CB Greg Toler: Did not allow a catch on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Calais Campbell: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 7 solo tackles, 7 stops

K Jay Feely: 7 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 65.9 yards per kickoff, 20.4 opponent’s average starting distance, 1/1 FG (51)

Duds

LG Daryn Colledge: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 25 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RG Pat McQuistan: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 5 attempts

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

TE Rob Housler: Caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 2 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch

TE Jeff King: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 3 attempts on 7 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 penalties

RB William Powell: Rushed for 4 yards (3 after contact) on 5 attempts, 1 penalty

CB Patrick Peterson: Allowed 9 catches for 113 yards on 15 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 8 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

MLB Paris Lenon: Allowed 3 catches for 32 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 17 blitzes

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Detroit Lions: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 4-10

Net points per drive: -0.02 (15th)

DVOA: -0.5% (14th)

Weighted DVOA: -1.0% (16th)

The Lions have had some bad luck with losing close, winnable games and having turnovers returned for touchdowns (they’ve had a ridiculous 10 turnovers/punts/kickoffs returned for touchdown this year), but they are the league’s most underachieving team this year and, with games against Atlanta and Chicago left, almost definitely this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. In a passing league, somehow the league’s #1 passing offense is at 4-10, while the league’s #32 passing offense (Minnesota) is at 8-6 and competing for a playoff spot, in the same division.

The Lions have some interesting bounce back potential next year (one team does the opposite, from 5 wins to the playoffs, every year, as well). They also have an interesting decision to make on Head Coach Jim Schwartz’s future. I’d say they should keep him simply because he took this team from 0-16 to the playoffs in a few years, but I could understand letting him go.

Detroit

Studs

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 10 passes for 121 yards on 16 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB DeAndre Levy: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Justin Durant: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts

FS Don Carey: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 1 attempt

DT Ndamukong Suh: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

QB Matt Stafford: 24 of 50 for 246 yards, 3 interceptions, 3 drops, 3 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 55.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 52 drop backs (2 sacks, 4 of 14, 3 throw aways, 1 drop)

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 3 passes for 36 yards on 7 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception

TE Tony Heller: Caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 3 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch

WR Kris Durham: Caught 1 pass for 14 yards on 5 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 10.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Jonte Green: Allowed 5 catches for 52 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 11 yards on 4 attempts

RE Lawrence Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Cliff Avril: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 4-10

Net points per drive: -0.47 (27th)

DVOA: -20.7% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -23.6% (29th)

Nick Foles showed a little bit of promise there for a few weeks, but he struggled on Thursday Night in a game the Eagles completely fell apart in, turning the ball over 4 times in 5 plays and blowing a 13-10 lead. That loss should seal Andy Reid’s fate as the Eagles will probably finish 4-12, with games against the Redskins and Giants left on the schedule. The Eagles will be motivated to play spoiler, but I don’t think they can get the job done. The new regime will have an interesting decision to make on Nick Foles and the future of this team’s quarterback position.

Studs

FS Colt Anderson: 7 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

CB Brandon Boykin: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, no tackles

RE Trent Cole: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

DT Fletcher Cox: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

LE Brandon Graham: 3 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

Duds

QB Nick Foles: 16 of 33 for 182 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 61.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 35 drop backs (1 scramble, 1 sack, 4 of 10, 1 touchdown, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for 34 yards (29 after contact) on 16 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 9 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

RT Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie:  Allowed 6 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

K Alex Henery: 4 kickoffs, 0 touchbacks, 58.0 yards per kickoff, 24.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (20, 22)

P Mat McBriar: 6 punts for 258 yards, 3 inside 20, 4 returns for 42 yards, 30.9 net yards per punt

DT Cedric Thornton: 1 kickoff return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, did not record a pressure on 8 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

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Oakland Raiders: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+1)

Record: 4-10

Net points per drive: -0.76 (30th)

DVOA: -28.2% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -28.1% (30th)

The Raiders shut out the Chiefs last week and still are tied for the league’s worst scoring defense. Aside from a weird win over the Steelers week 3, the Raiders wins have all come against the Chiefs (twice) and the Jaguars, who are the league’s worst teams right now. At 4-10 with games left against the Panthers and the Chargers, the Raiders look destined for 4-12. It’s not that those games are unwinnable, but I just don’t think they’ll win them.

Studs

RB Mike Goodson: Rushed for 89 yards (73 after contact) on 13 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 14 yards on 1 attempt

LG Cooper Carlisle: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 47 yards on 6 attempts

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 66 yards on 6 attempts

CB Brandian Ross: Allowed 3 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

CB Michael Huff: Did not allow a catch on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

CB Joselio Hanson: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 6 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes

RE Andre Carter: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE LaMarr Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

DT Tommy Kelly: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

WR Darrius Heyward Bey: Did not catch a pass on 5 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1 penalty

LOLB Miles Burris: 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 31 yards on 4 attempts

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 31 (+1)

Record: 2-12

Net points per drive: -0.87 (31st)

DVOA: -33.6% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -31.5% (31st)

Unlike the Chiefs, the Jaguars do have one winnable game left on the schedule as they head to Tennessee week 17, after hosting the Patriots next week, but I don’t think they’ll win another game either. All the promise that the Chad Henne era had when it started for a team that desperately needed it is gone after he’s gone back to being, well, Chad Henne, in the last few weeks. They’ll have to address the position this offseason, but this isn’t a good year to need a quarterback.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 1 attempt

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 1 sack on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

WR Cecil Shorts: Caught 6 passes for 101 yards on 10 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 6.5 YAC per catch

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 18 of 34 for 221 yards, 1 drop, 2 batted passes, 68.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 37 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 11, 1 drop)

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 10 yards on 4 attempts

TE Marcedes Lewis: Caught 3 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch

WR Jordan Shipley: Caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 3 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Rashean Mathis: Allowed 3 catches for 36 yards on 4 attempts, 3 penalties, 2 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Julian Sanford: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, did not allow a catch on 1 attempt

FS Dwight Lowery: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 1 attempt

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 30 (-2)

Record: 2-12

Net points per drive: -0.97 (32nd)

DVOA: -40.1% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -38.7% (32nd)

After getting shut out by the Raiders, it appears the Chiefs’ winning days are over as they have games against the Colts to close out their season. This puts them in the driver’s seat for a 2-14 record and the #1 pick and it couldn’t have gone to a more deserving team. This team was rarely competitive once they put Brady Quinn under center and they didn’t manage a first down in the first half against a Raider team that had the league’s worst defense coming into the game. I would commend them for the shrewd move in ensuring they lock up the #1 pick, but Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel are expected to be fired at the end of the season.

Studs

SS Eric Berry: 11 solo tackles, 7 stops, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection

P Dustin Colquitt: 7 punts for 383 yards, 4 inside 20, 0 returns for 0 yards, 51.9 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Brady Quinn: 18 of 32 for 136 yards and 1 interception, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 65.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 36 drop backs (4 sacks, 4 of 10, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

LT Donald Stephenson: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

RT Eric Winston: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps

C Ryan Lilja: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 5 attempts

WR Jamar Newsome: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 4 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Jonathan Baldwin: Did not catch a pass on 4 attempts on 37 pass snaps

CB Jalil Brown: Allowed 3 catches for 39 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

LE Tyson Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Dontari Poe: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

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Buffalo Bills extend G Kraig Urbik

stevenlourie Bills, News

Not a lot of people know who Kraig Urbik is, but he’s a starting right guard for the Buffalo Bills and he’s actually quite good. A 2 year starter, Urbik graded out as ProFootballFocus 18th ranked guard in 8 starts in 2011 and ranks 24th this season in 11 starts, making him an above average player at that position. He’s also got some versatility to play center, where he made 5 starts last season, though his better position is right guard. He’s a better pass protector than run blocker and actually allowed just 3 quarterback hurries in his 13 combined starts in 2011. This year, he’s allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 7 quarterback hurries in 11 starts and he’s improved as a run blocker.

He’s had some minor injuries, but this really just seems to be an underrated player getting locked up for a very reasonable deal, 4 years 15 million. With him heading into free agency this offseason, the Bills were smart to lock him up right now, before he could hit free agency, but after the 2009 3rd rounder could prove he was more than a one year wonder. The Bills may now attempt to focus on locking up left guard Andy Levitre for the future before he hits free agency this offseason.

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2012 Pro Bowl Picks

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AFC Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (DEN), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Brady and Manning are obvious choices and will probably finish 1-2 in MVP voting, in some order. Roethlisberger beats out Schaub for the underwhelming 3rd spot, even though he missed 3 games. Roethlisberger carried a team that has had so many injuries this year in a way that Schaub never has this year.

Other options: Matt Schaub

NFC Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin (WAS), Aaron Rodgers (GB), Matt Ryan (ATL)

Griffin would probably be my 3rd choice for MVP. He is tied for the NFL lead in quarterback rating and that doesn’t even take into account what he does on the ground. He’s taken a team that didn’t have a ton of talent to begin with that has lost a lot of key players to injury and put them on the brink of a playoff spot. Rodgers is a no brainer. Ryan was an early MVP candidate, who has gone back to his normal levels of production over the past few weeks, but he still gets the nod over Drew Brees.

Other options: Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees

AFC Running Backs

CJ Spiller (BUF), Ray Rice (BAL), Stevan Ridley (NE)

Spiller is having a year similar to Jamaal Charles’ in 2010. He’s averaging a ridiculous 6.6 YPC, which would be an NFL record if he had enough carries to qualify, but he isn’t even his team’s lead back. Still, 6.6 YPC and 1298 yards from scrimmage on a mere 178 touches in nothing to sneeze at. Rice is having another great all-purpose year and got an offensive coordinator fired for not using him more. Stevan Ridley beats out Chris Johnson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Jamaal Charles.

Other options: Jamaal Charles

NFC Running Backs

Adrian Peterson (MIN), Marshawn Lynch (SEA), Doug Martin (TB)

No surprises here. Peterson, Lynch, and Martin are 1-2-4 in rushing yards this season. Martin beats out Morris, who is 3rd, because Morris’ rushing yards are more the product of the Redskins’ read option offense and Robert Griffin.

Other options: Alfred Morris, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw

AFC Wide Receivers

Reggie Wayne (IND), Andre Johnson (HOU), AJ Green (CIN), Demaryius Thomas (DEN)

Again, no surprises here. These are the top-4 in receiving yards in the AFC.

Other options: Wes Welker

NFC Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson (DET), Vincent Jackson (TB), Brandon Marshall (CHI), Roddy White (ATL)

Once again, no surprises here. These are the top-4 in receiving yards in the NFC.

Other options: Percy Harvin

AFC Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (NE), Heath Miller (PIT)

Gronkowski leads all AFC tight ends in receiving yards despite missing 3 games with injury and that doesn’t even take into account that he’s probably the best blocking tight end in the NFL. Heath Miller is an equally well rounded player.

Other options: Marcedes Lewis

NFC Tight Ends

Jason Witten (DAL), Martellus Bennett (NYG)

Witten leads all NFL tight ends in receiving yards. Bennett beats out Tony Gonzalez for his all around play. Gonzalez has been a terrible run blocker this year.

Other options: Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis

AFC Fullback

Vonta Leach (BAL)

Leach gets the nod over Marcel Reece. Reece did a great job moving to running back for a stretch in place of an injured Darren McFadden, but in terms of true, pure fullbacks, there’s still no one better in the NFL than Leach.

Other options: Marcel Reece

NFC Fullback

Bruce Miller (SF)

ProFootballFocus’ top rated NFC fullback, Bruce Miller is a huge part of the reason why the 49ers rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards.

Other options: Henry Hynoski

AFC Offensive Tackles

Duane Brown (HOU), Ryan Clady (DEN), Joe Thomas (CLE)

Duane Brown is ProFootballFocus’ top rated offensive tackle and has only allowed 2 sacks this season, which is actually a lot for him. He didn’t allow a single sack all last year. Clady has had a major bounce back year for the Broncos this year, after a down year last year, though I suppose a switch from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning under center obviously helps. Thomas gets the nod over Andre Brown because Thomas plays on the more important blindside.

Other options: Andre Smith, D’Brickashaw Ferguson

NFC Offensive Tackles

Joe Staley (SF), Trent Williams (WAS), William Beatty (NYG)

Staley has actually allowed 7 sacks this year, but that’s more his quarterbacks’ fault. He’s allowed just 1 hit and 12 hurries and is ProFootballFocus’ top rated run blocking offensive tackle by a wide margin on one of the league’s best run offenses. Williams and Beatty wouldn’t deserve this if they were in the AFC, a much stronger offensive tackle conference, but they are ProFootballFocus’ 2nd and 4th rated offensive tackles from the NFC, allowing 3 and 2 sacks respectively. Beatty beats out Gosder Cherilus because, like Andre Smith, he’s a right tackle.

Other options: Gosder Cherilus, Russell Okung

AFC Guards

Marshal Yanda (BAL), Kevin Zeitler (CIN), Andy Levitre (BUF)

Yanda hasn’t surrendered a sack all season and is ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked guard, excelling in both pass protection and run blocking. Rookie Zeitler is a huge part of the reason why the pedestrian BenJarvus Green-Ellis has appeared to be a Pro-Bowl caliber running back this year. Andy Levitre grades out as the NFL’s top rated pass blocking interior lineman on ProFootballFocus, allowing 2 sacks, 3 hits, and 6 hurries.

Other options: Clint Boling

NFC Guards

Evan Mathis (PHI), Jahri Evans (NO), Josh Sitton (GB)

The Eagles’ offensive line has been terrible, but don’t blame Mathis, who has allowed just 1 sack and is ProFootballFocus’ top rated guard for the 2nd straight year by a wide margin. Evans is a perennial Pro Bowler and deserves it again this year. Sitton is on his way to becoming a perennial guy like Evans.

Other options: Mike Iupati, Alex Boone

AFC Centers

Mike Pouncey (MIA), Chris Myers (HOU)

The lesser known of the two Pouncey twins, Mike is playing on a level that his brother Maurkice has never played on. He’s surrendered just 3 total pressures all year and is a strong run blocker. Myers was ProFootballFocus’ top rated center in 2011 and is their 5th rated center this year, 2nd rated from the AFC.

Other options: Nick Mangold, Ryan Wendell

NFC Centers

John Sullivan (MIN), Brian La Puente (NO)

La Puente went from marginal to Pro Bowl caliber this year. Sullivan did that last year and hasn’t looked back.

Other options: Will Montgomery

AFC Defensive Ends

JJ Watt (HOU), Cameron Wake (MIA), Derrick Morgan (TEN)

Ugh.  Why did the Pro Bowl ballot move Muhammad Wilkerson from end to tackle. That left us without a clear 3rd end from the AFC. Watt and Wake are no brainers, ranking 1st on ProFootballFocus in 3-4 and 4-3 end respectively. Morgan is a surprise pick because he only has 5 sacks, but he’s ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked defensive end from the AFC as he ranks 4th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency.

Other options: Corey Liuget, Mario Williams

NFC Defensive Ends

Jason Pierre Paul (NYG), Brandon Graham (PHI), Calais Campbell (ARZ)

JPP and Campbell are obvious selections. Graham is a surprise like Morgan, but he leads the league in pass rush efficiency by a wide margin among players with 175 or more pass rush snaps and he has been a monster since becoming a starter 3 weeks ago with 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback hurries in 3 games. On the year, he has 7 sacks, 6 hits, and 27 hurries on 177 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush efficiency of 19.0. Wake is closest at 13.7. Graham actually is ProFootballFocus’ top rated NFC 4-3 end and ranks 2nd behind only Cameron Wake in the NFL at his position.

Other options: John Abraham, Charles Johnson, Chris Clemons

AFC Defensive Tackles

Geno Atkins (CIN), Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ), Kyle Williams (BUF)

Geno Atkins is the league’s best defensive tackle with 12 sacks, 13 hits, and 44 hurries, all while grading out as ProFootballFocus’ top rated defensive tackle against the run. Among defensive players, only JJ Watt and Von Miller have better overall ratings. Wilkerson isn’t the pass rusher Atkins is, but the 3-4 end is ProFootballFocus’ top rated run defensive lineman not named Watt and has 4 sacks, 7 hits, and 18 hurries to boot. Williams was a Pro Bowl caliber player in 2010 and now back from injury he is again, with 5 sacks, 10 hits, and 25 hurries, while playing the run well as well. Only Atkins has a higher rating among defensive tackles.

Other options: Jurrell Casey

NFC Defensive Tackles

Gerald McCoy (TB), Justin Smith (SF), Nick Fairley (DET)

Gerald McCoy has finally showed what he can do when healthy, as ProFootballFocus’ 3rd rated defensive tackle, with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and 31 hurries while leading the NFL’s best run defense. Smith is technically a 3-4 end, but is on the ballot as a tackle. He’s not having the pass rushing year he had in 2011, but only Watt and Wilkerson grade out as better run players. Fairley is a write in, but only Atkins has a better pass rush efficiency rating. He was nuts as a rotational player early in the year and has been equally nuts in 5 starts with 4 sacks, 4 hits, and 15 hurries. I know you can’t write in players, but he deserves it. On the actual ballot, I voted his teammate Ndamukong Suh, who has played almost equally well.

Other options: Ndamukong Suh, Henry Melton, Jason Hatcher

AFC Outside Linebackers

Von Miller (DEN), Justin Houston (KC), Nick Barnett (MIA)

Along Watt has a higher rating among defensive players on ProFootballFocus than Miller, who is a defensive end just in sub packages and has 16 sacks, 13 hits, and 45 hurries, which is good for a pass rush efficiency surpassed only by Brandon Graham. He’s also ProFootballFocus’ highest rated run stopping linebacker and even does well in coverage when asked. Houston is ProFootballFocus’ highest rated AFC 3-4 outside linebacker with 10 sacks, 6 hits, and 23 hurries. Nick Barnett is ProFootballFocus’ 3rd rated 4-3 outside linebacker in the NFL and gets the nod because Jerod Mayo is listed as a middle linebacker for some reason.

Other options: Phillip Wheeler, Paul Kruger

NFC Outside Linebackers

Anthony Spencer (DAL), Aldon Smith (SF), Ahmad Brooks (SF)

Spencer is not a household name, but he’s perennially one of the best run stopping 3-4 outside linebackers in the league and this year he is the best and has also chipped in with a career high 9 sacks, to go with 1 hit and 20 hurries. Only Von Miller is a higher rated run stopping linebacker and he’s ProFootballFocus’ highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker. Smith is overrated based purely on sack numbers because he doesn’t play the run well or cover well and his 10 hits and 29 hurries allow him to barely be the league’s leader in pass rush efficiency over Justin Houston, but 20 sacks is nothing to sneeze at. He could set the single season record for sacks. Teammate Ahmad Brooks has also played very well with 6 sacks, 8 hits, and 27 hurries, while grading out 3rd at his position against the run. He gets the nod over Clay Matthews, once a Pro Bowl lock before getting hurt, and DeMarcus Ware, a more one dimensional player who leads the position with 8 penalties.

Other options: Clay Matthews, DeMarcus Ware

AFC Middle Linebackers

Derrick Johnson (KC), Jerod Mayo (NE)

Derrick Johnson is ProFootballFocus top rated middle linebacker not named Patrick Willis. Jerod Mayo is an outside linebacker listed here for whatever reason, but he deserves the nod either way, beating out teammate Brandon Spikes, a true middle linebacker, for this nod.

Other options: Brandon Spikes

NFC Middle Linebackers

Patrick Willis (SF), Bobby Wagner (SEA)

Willis is the obvious choice. 2nd round rookie Wagner ranks 3rd on ProFootballFocus out of middle linebackers and beats out a loaded NFC middle linebacker group including Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman, DeMeco Ryans, and even the injured Sean Lee.

Other options: Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman

AFC Cornerbacks

Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), Alterraun Verner (TEN), Sheldon Brown (CLE)

The AFC is clearly the weaker cornerback conference. Cromartie has allowed 4 touchdowns, committed 6 penalties, and struggles against the run, but his 43.8% completion percentage allowed is the league’s best and he has 3 picks and 11 deflections. Verner and Brown are weird choices, but Verner is the only AFC cornerback who hasn’t surrendered a touchdown this year and he’s one of the league’s best run stopping cornerbacks. Brown is submitting an excellent season at age 33 on a very underrated Cleveland defense, allowing 40 catches for 462 yards and a touchdown on 76 attempts, intercepting 3, deflecting 9, committing 7 penalties, and playing well against the run.

Other options: Brandon Flowers, Chris Harris, Champ Bailey

NFC Cornerbacks

Casey Hayward (GB), Charles Tillman (CHI), Antoine Winfield (MIN)

The much tougher cornerback conference, the NFC possesses ProFootballFocus’ top 4 rated cornerbacks, including 3 from the NFC North. Hayward is a mere 2nd round rookie, but he’s playing insane, allowing 43.9% completion, no touchdowns, while getting his hands on 15 balls, intercepting 5 of them. Opposing quarterbacks have a 30.1 QB rating when throwing on him and he’s missed just one tackle all year and has yet to be penalized. He’s not on the Pro Bowl ballot for some reason, so I voted for Richard Sherman instead, even though he’ll probably end up being suspended and ineligible. Tillman and Winfield are more obvious choices as they rank tied for 3rd and 2nd respectively on ProFootballFocus among cornerbacks.

Other options: Richard Sherman, Tim Jennings

AFC Free Safety

Eric Weddle (SD)

Once again, Weddle is ProFootballFocus’ top rated safety, narrowly beating out Jairus Byrd and the emerging Reshad Jones.

Other options: Jairus Byrd, Reshad Jones

NFC Free Safety

Kerry Rhodes (ARZ)

After Weedle, Jones, and Byrd, the resurgent Kerry Rhodes is ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated safety and top rated NFC safety.

Other options: Ronde Barber

AFC Strong Safety

TJ Ward (CLE)

I don’t know why I can’t just pick two free safeties, but TJ Ward is ProFootballFocus top rated strong safety and 5th rated safety overall.

Other options: George Wilson

NFC Strong Safety

Quintin Mikell (STL)

The AFC is the stronger safety conference and free safety is the stronger safety position, but Quintin Mikell has emerged over the past few weeks to become ProFootballFocus’ 6th rated safety and a worthy Pro-Bowler nonetheless.

Other options: William Moore

Kickers

AFC: Justin Tucker (BAL), NFC: Blair Walsh (MIN)

These two rookies have been the league’s best.

Punters

AFC: Brandon Fields (MIA), NFC: Thomas Morestead (NO)

Fields and Morestead are the only two punters in the NFL to have an average of 50+ yards per punt.

Kick returners

AFC: Leodis McKelvin (BUF), NFC: David Wilson (NYG)

McKelvin is averaging a league leading 18.0 yards per punt return and also averages 28.3 yards per kickoff return, why he’s ProFootballFocus’ top rated return man. Wilson is 2nd and tops in the NFC, averaging 27.5 yards per kickoff.

Special teamers

AFC: Darrell Stuckey (SD), NFC: Colt Anderson (PHI)

Do you really want me to talk about special teamers?

By team:

San Francisco 6

New England 4

NY Giants 4

Denver 4

Buffalo 4

Houston 4

Baltimore 4

Minnesota 4

Miami 4

Green Bay 3

Cleveland 3

Philadelphia 3

New Orleans 3

Tampa Bay 3

Cincinnati 3

Atlanta 2

Chicago 2

Washington 2

Arizona 2

Seattle 2

Detroit 2

Dallas 2

NY Jets 2

Pittsburgh 2

Tennessee 2

Kansas City 2

San Diego 2

St. Louis 1

Indianapolis 1

Carolina 0

Jacksonville 0

Oakland 0

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Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, Commanders

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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