Arizona Cardinals: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 4-8

Net points per drive: -0.18 (22nd)

DVOA: -9.4% (24th)

Weighted DVOA: -10.8% (25th)

Studs

RT Bobby Massie: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps

LG Daryn Colledge: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts

CB William Gay: Allowed 3 catches for 17 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

FS Kerry Rhodes: Allowed 2 catches for 5 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

QB Ryan Lindley: 10 of 31 for 72 yards and an interception, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 37.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 33 drop backs (2 sacks, 0 of 5, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Chris Wells: Rushed for 22 yards (16 after contact) on 15 attempts, 3 broken tackles, allowed 1 sack on 2 pass block snaps

WR Michael Floyd: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 8 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Paris Lenon: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 12 yards on 1 attempt

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 3-9

Net points per drive: -0.49 (28th)

DVOA: -18.9% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -21.4% (28th)

Studs

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for 169 yards (91 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 24 attempts, 5 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 4 passes for 14 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RG Jake Scott: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

WR Jason Avant: Caught 4 passes for 79 yards on 4 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

LE Brandon Graham: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

WR Damaris Johnson: 2 punt returns for 104 yards and a touchdown, caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 1 attempt on 5 pass snaps, 15.0 YAC per catch

Duds

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

SS Nate Allen: Allowed 3 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 2 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

MLB DeMeco Ryans: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

Last week: 31 (+1)

Record: 2-10

Net points per drive: -0.80 (30th)

DVOA: -34.4% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -33.2% (30th)

Studs

MLB Paul Posluszny: 3 solo tackles, 6 assists, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for -1 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 18 of 41 for 208 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown, 2 batted passes, 4 drops, 69.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 18 of 47 drop backs (4 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 13, 1 interception, 2 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RB Rashad Jennings: Rushed for 23 yards (19 after contact) on 8 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 2 fumbles

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

C Brad Meester: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 5 attempts

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -1 yards on 1 attempt

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Jordan Shipley: Caught 3 catches for 19 yards on 5 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 6 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Kevin Rutland: Allowed 3 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

Last week: 32 (+1)

Record: 2-10

Net points per drive: -0.91 (32nd)

DVOA: -35.8% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -33.8% (31st)

Studs

QB Brady Quinn: 19 of 23 for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, pressured on 123.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 26 drop backs (1 sack, 4 of 5, 1 throw away)

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 127 yards (53 after contact) on 27 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 4 passes for 11 yards on 4 attempts

C Ryan Lilja: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 52 yards on 13 attempts

TE Tony Moeaki: Caught 4 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

K Ryan Succop: 5 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 70.0 yards per kickoff, 20.8 average opponents starting distance, 2/2 FG (42, 52)

Duds

FS Travis Daniels: 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 2 attempts

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Oakland Raiders: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

Last week: 30 (-2)

Record: 3-9

Net points per drive: -0.9 (31st)

DVOA: -34.6% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -34.9% (32nd)

Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 5 attempts

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 14 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 2.1 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps

LE Lamarr Houston: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 sack and 6 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Juron Criner: Caught 4 passes for 26 yards on 10 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: Caught 4 passes for 40 yards on 5 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 2 passes for 31 yards on 8 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Ronald Bartell: Allowed 4 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 1 blitz

MLB Omar Gaither: Allowed 1 catch for 21 yards on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Matt Shaughnessy: 1 quarterback hit on 24 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Week 14 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)

The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they lost all 3 by 21 or more, which is actually incredibly rare. That’s only the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, which is why I love betting teams off back-to-back losses of 21 or more (36-17 ATS since 2002).

This week, the Raiders are actually in a really good spot. For one, divisional favorites of more than a touchdown are just 2-10 ATS this season, which I think speaks to the high level of parity in the NFL this season. The Broncos struggled and failed to cover the spread in a win in Kansas City two weeks ago in a very similar type game.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Raiders host the Chiefs next week, a game they are expected to be favorites in. Going off that, divisional home dogs are 20-10 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 1989. The Raiders are also in their 2nd straight game as home dogs off a loss, a situation teams are 60-41 ATS in since 2002.

Speaking of that loss last week, as I mentioned, the Raiders were actually competitive. Teams that are on long losing streaks that almost broke through the week before actually cover at a high rate. Teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. All the trends say they should cover, but of course, all the trends said they would cover against Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati too and they got blown out.

This week, we’re actually getting line value with the Broncos. Using the net points per drive differential method of computing real line, this line should be Denver -13.5. The Broncos rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.62 the Raiders rank 31st in net points per drive at -0.90. If we take the difference between those two, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 3 points in the Raiders’ direction for home field advantage, we get around Denver -13.5. That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like schedule). The Broncos rank 2nd in both DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Raiders rank 31st and 32nd respectively in those two metrics.

However, unlike the Baltimore game, the New Orleans game, and the Cincinnati game, in which the Raiders showed no effort, this is a divisional matchup. In fact, it’s a home primetime game against not only their biggest rival, but by far the best team in the division. This is their Super Bowl. Just like the Eagles last week, they should give their best effort of the season and cover a large spread against a superior team.

Actually, where the Raiders are right now is very similar to where the Eagles were last week. The Eagles were atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 125-64, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. The Raiders were also atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 167-77, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. Now, like the Eagles were last week, the Raiders are double digit divisional dogs in a game with all the trends on their side in a game that means much more for them than their opponent. The Broncos just want a win, while the Raiders are playing for pride.

I also like that the public likes the Broncos. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it makes sense to fade the public whenever it seems appropriate. It’s never really a bad thing to be on the same side as the odds makers. They know what they’re doing. However, like the Eagles last week, I can’t make a big play on the Raiders. They should be the right side though.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spr­ead: Oakland +10.5 (-110) 2 units

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Week 13 NFL Picks Results

Week 13 Results

ATS: 6-10 -10 units/$-1240

SU: 8-8

Upset Picks: 1-3 -$175

Over/Under: 1-1 -$10

Total: -$1425

Public Results ATS*: 6-10 -10 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 92-95-5 -6 units/-$2885

SU: 116-75-1

Upset Picks: 29-36 +$50

Over/Under: 9-8-1 +20

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: -$2715

Survivor: 10-3 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL, DEN, DET)

Public Results ATS*: 90-100-2 -11 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 22.7%

Brandon Myers had the most 5th fantasy points among tight ends this year. I’m telling you, he’s good. Pick him up! After catching 14 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Browns, Myers now has 69 catches for 721 yards and 4 touchdowns through 12 games and is on pace to catch 92 passes for 961 yards and 5 touchdowns. Seriously! I know he’s on the Raiders, but he’s good!

RB Montell Owens (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.0%

Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings, Jalen Parmele, those guys are all now hurt so Montell Owens is the next random running back up in Jacksonville. Unless any of those 3 guys can get healthy in time for this week’s game (unlikely), Owens will make his first NFL start with little to no competition for carries. His talent level is definitely a question, but feature backs are always a candidate to start in fantasy.

QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

Percent owned (ESPN): 17.8%

This rookie seems to have finally hit his groove, going for at least 200 total yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his last 5 games, with only 1 interception. If you need quarterback help, think about picking this guy up.

WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.0%

With Wilson heating up in his last 5 games, Tate, his top receiver, has also understandably seen an increase in production, catching 22 passes for 296 yards and 4 touchdowns in those last 5 games. He might be worth picking up.

WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.8%

Here’s another rookie who seems to have hit his groove. With Danny Amendola out the last 2 weeks, he has 16 catches for 207 yards and a touchdown. Amendola is questionable going forward, so Givens is worth a flier in deeper leagues.

RB James Starks (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.1%

James Starks is splitting carries with Alex Green. Both had solid games against Minnesota, so they might be worth picking up in deeper leagues. I’m surprised they’re owned in so few leagues. Starks, who rushed for 66 yards on 15 attempts, has more value because he’s getting the goal line carries.

RB Alex Green (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 24.5%

James Starks is splitting carries with Alex Green. Both had solid games against Minnesota, so they might be worth picking up in deeper leagues. I’m surprised they’re owned in so few leagues. Green rushed for 58 yards on 12 attempts, though Starks is getting the goal line carries.

WR Mike Thomas (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

With Ryan Broyles out with a torn ACL and Titus Young suspended, Mike Thomas will short opposite Calvin Johnson. Thomas struggled mightily in Jacksonville with Blaine Gabbert and then he was buried on the depth chart in Detroit, but he had 66 catches for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns the last time he was a starter and had a real quarterback throwing him the ball, back in 2010. He’s never played with a quarterback as good as Matt Stafford so he has upside.

TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 17.5%

The last time Lewis had a competent quarterback throwing to him, he caught 58 passes for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns, that being in 2010. Blaine Gabbert is injured and Chad Henne looks, at the very least, like a clear upgrade over Gabbert. In 3 games with Henne, he’s caught 11 passes for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns. He might be worth a bench stash if you need tight end help.

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The Final Quarter of the NFL Season

The NFL is a league filled with parity. Every year, there are certain examples of this parity that happens almost without fail. With 4 weeks left in the NFL season, we can use these to figure out which teams, if history is any indication, will struggle down the stretch. Note: I’m doing this probably in lieu of detailed power rankings.

1. Every year in at least the last decade, a team has gone from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs.

This is an easy one. The Colts, winners of 2 games last year, stand at 8-4 right now and in the weak AFC, they can pretty much clinch a playoff spot with 2 more wins. They have easy games against Tennessee and Kansas City, along with tougher games against Houston, in their final 4 games. They won’t need to pull any upsets to make the playoffs, and they might even be able to make the playoffs if they get upset once down the stretch, so there isn’t much we can learn from them. Washington, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota are candidates here and we can certainly have more than one of these teams make the playoffs, but Indianapolis should fulfill this “requirement.”

2. Every year in at least the last decade, with the exception of one, a team has gone from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer.

With the exception of 2, each one of last year’s 12 playoff teams have already won 6 games or more, so that eliminates a good chunk of the candidates. New Orleans at 5-7 is technically still a candidate, but they’d have to lose out, which makes them a long shot. Even if they can’t beat Tampa Bay in New Orleans or go to New York and beat the Giants or beat the Cowboys in Dallas, I’d be stunned if they lost to the Panthers at home in the Superdome week 17.

That leaves Detroit. Detroit sits at 4-8 and could definitely go 1-3 down the stretch. They have very tough games against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago, all of which they will be dogs in, and only a trip to Arizona offers them an opportunity to be favorites. They’re really our only option, so this teaches us to basically fade them as small or medium sized dogs against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago because history suggests they won’t pull any of those 3 upsets. If they do, definitely fade them as favorites in Arizona, because Arizona just might pull that upset, again, if history is any indication.

3. Every year in at least the last decade, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye.

Really the only candidate here is the Bears. The AFC byes will almost definitely be two of Houston, New England, Baltimore, and Denver, all returning playoff teams. The Falcons, another returning playoff team, have the other bye locked up, which leaves that 2nd NFC bye as the one that will likely be taken by a non-playoff team from a year ago. The 49ers, are 8-3-1, hold the spot right now, a 4th returning playoff team, but the Bears are at 8-4 and if they can beat Green Bay in Chicago, a game in which they’ll probably be favored, they could definitely run the table and go 12-4. In that case, they would only need San Francisco to lose one of two very losable games in Seattle or New England, where they will probably be dogs, to take the 2nd bye.

Seattle is the other candidate. If they can beat San Francisco in Seattle, where they have already knocked down some of the tougher teams in the NFL this season (New England, Green Bay), they have a very good chance to run the table and get to 11-5, barring another snafu as road favorites in Buffalo. Their other two games at are home for Arizona and St. Louis and I would be stunned if they lost either of those. At 11-5, they’d still need some help getting into the playoffs, in the form of a Chicago loss and another San Francisco loss, but the possibility is still open. Potential suspensions to Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman could kill their chances though.

What does all this mean? Well, I don’t think I’m going to pick against the Bears as small or medium favorites the rest of the way and I certainly won’t pick against them as dogs. I think I’m taking them against Green Bay pretty much no matter what. I probably won’t pick against Seattle the rest of the way, just to be safe (though Browner’s and Sherman’s potential suspensions could really make me rethink that promise, as would the juicy possibility of getting Buffalo +3.5 at home for the Seahawks). I’ll also pick against San Francisco in both New England and Seattle.

4. Every year in at least the last decade, one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs

Here’s another reason I like the Bears to satisfy situation #3. The 49ers, Patriots, and Ravens are all pretty much locked into a playoff spot. None of those teams has more than 3 losses. The Packers at 8-4 are the only candidate that still remotely has a chance of satisfying this one. They’d have to go 2-2 or worse to do so. Losing in Chicago would definitely not be a shock, but they’ll probably be favorites in their other 3 games.

I can’t see them losing at home to Tennessee, nor can I see them losing at home to Detroit, especially since doing so would put situation 2 at risk of not happening, so the only real possibility would be a week 17 road loss in Minnesota. Minnesota played them tough this week, so it is a possibility in Minneapolis, where they are 5-1 this year, especially since Percy Harvin will probably be back for that one.

Who would take the Packers’ playoff spot? Well, there’s a trio of 6-6 teams right now, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Dallas. Tampa Bay is the most talented of the bunch by far, but they’d have to win out and that would mean wins in New Orleans and Atlanta. A win in Atlanta would not be farfetched as that will be week 17 and the Falcons will almost definitely be resting starters then (they might clinch home field in the NFC by week 15) and I think they can win in New Orleans. Basically what this means is I’m going against the Packers against the Bears and Vikings the rest of the way and taking Tampa Bay as dogs and small or medium favorites the rest of the way.

5. Every year in the last 17 years, there have been 5 new playoff teams.

This is another reason I think the Packers will miss the playoffs. This has happened for 17 straight years. Right now, the Colts, Seahawks, and Bears look like locks to be 3 of those 5. If the Buccaneers can take the Packers’ spot, that’s 4, with the Packers joining the Saints, Lions, and either the Steelers or Bengals on the outside looking in. That leaves one spot.

The only plausible way this can happen for an 18th straight year is if the Redskins win the NFC East and someone takes the Packers’ spot. 6 of the 8 divisions in the NFL will definitely be won by the team that won it last year. The Steelers or Bengals, two returning playoff teams, are taking one of the two wild cards in the AFC. That only leaves 5 spots for new playoff teams and if this is going to happen for the 18th straight year, they will all have to be filled by new playoff teams, including the Giants’ spot atop the NFC East.

I know the Cowboys are right in that NFC East race as well, but I just think the Redskins are a much better team. After all, they smoked the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving. These two teams do play week 17 in Washington so I guess you can say that whichever teams win week 17 is the favorite between these two, but I think the Redskins will win that one and the division.

The Giants are a much better team in the first half of the season than the second. In the first 8 games of the season, they are 53-19 and in the 2nd half, they are 28-40. The Giants have tough games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta left, before an easy week 17 game against the Eagles. That week 17 game is their only easy win and they’ll have to win at least 2 games I think to win this division. 8-8 won’t cut it.

The Redskins stand at 6-6 and have a much easier final quarter schedule, playing the Eagles and Browns in 2 of their next 3 games, sandwiched in between a winnable game at home against the Ravens and that week 17 matchup against the Cowboys. All the Redskins have to do is win the 3 games they’ll be favored in (Browns, Eagles, and Cowboys) and have the Giants win just the 2 games they’ll be favored in (Saints, Eagles) and the Redskins will win the division at 9-7, by virtue of the 2nd tiebreaker, divisional record (5-1 to Giants’ 4-2). Chalk wins the Redskins the division. So what does this mean for picking purposes, basically I’m going fade the Giants unless they’re big dogs down the stretch and I’m going to take the Redskins unless they’re big favorites. I would do the same for the Cowboys, but I don’t trust them.

Teams to bet

1. Chicago

2. Seattle

3. Washington

4. Tampa Bay

Teams to fade

1. Green Bay

2. NY Giants

3. San Francisco

4. Detroit

Final playoff predictions

NFC

1. Atlanta 14-2 (lose to Buccaneers week 17 with rested starters)

2. Chicago 12-4 (win out)

3. San Francisco 11-4-1 (lose in either New England or Seattle)

4. Washington 9-7 (lose to Ravens, win other 3)

5. Seattle 10-6 (lose to 49ers or in Buffalo)

6. Tampa Bay 10-6 (win out)

AFC

1. Houston 14-2

2. New England 13-3

3. Denver 13-3

4. Baltimore 12-4

5. Pittsburgh 10-6

6. Indianapolis 9-7

Just for mock draft/power rankings purposes, these would be my playoff predictions in that scenario.

AFC Wild Card

3. Broncos over 6. Colts

5. Steelers over 4. Ravens

NFC Wild Card

3. 49ers over 6. Buccaneers

4. Redskins over 5. Seahawks

AFC Divisional

1. Texans over Steelers

2. Patriots over Broncos

NFC Divisional

1. Falcons over 4. Redskins

3. 49ers over 2. Bears

AFC Championship

2. Patriots over 1. Texans

3. 49ers over 1. Falcons

Super Bowl

2. Patriots over 3. 49ers

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Reaction to the Jovan Belcher Murder/Suicide

As I’m sure you’ve already heard, Jovan Belcher, a starting middle linebacker on the Kansas City Chiefs, committed a murder/suicide this weekend, shocking the football world and changing many lives for the worse. I’m not here to talk about the specific incident. There’s nothing really to say that you haven’t heard a million times. What happened is a tragedy. I’ll say that and leave it at that.

I’m here, however, to talk about the public reaction to the incident and some things that have really been bugging me about it. The first is people remembering Belcher as a victim. Belcher is not a victim. Kasandra Perkins is a victim. Literally everyone else closely involved in the situation is a victim except Belcher. Kasandra Perkins was 22 years old and a new mother and now she’s dead. Their newborn daughter is 3 months old and now she has no parents.

The mother of Kasandra Perkins, who watched the incident happen, is a victim, as are the families of Kasandra Perkins and of Jovan Belcher and the people who knew them closely. Scott Pioli, Gary Gibbs, and Romeo Crennel are victims, as they had to watch Belcher kill himself in front of them. Belcher’s teammates, who have to deal with the loss of someone that was not just a teammate, but probably a friend to most of them, they are victims.

Jovan Belcher is no victim. He deserves no RIP. He is the only one in this situation who is not a victim. He’s not an innocent. He’s a killer and a murderer. People who commit murder/suicides are not remembered fondly generally and this situation should not be any different. If he had just committed murder and been arrested and thrown in jail for the rest of his life, he would not have been remembered fondly and this situation should not be any different. The fact that Belcher went to the Chiefs’ facility, of all places, after committing murder to finish the 2nd half of the murder/suicide makes it even worse. By doing that, he was endangering more people’s lives and forcing those who cared about him to watch as he ended his own life, leaving them with undoubtedly painful memories for life.

All of my sympathies go out to the real victims in this situation, but I don’t have any left for a man who would kill the mother of his child in front of their newborn and her mother, go to his place of work with a gun and finish the murder/suicide in front of friends, coaches, and teammates, and leave his 3 month old daughter without parents. Kevin Clancy (KFC), actually wrote about this situation better than anyone I read this weekend, ironic coming from a self proclaimed smut humor site such as Barstool Sports (huge fan, by the way), but KFC did a great job of summing up my exact feelings on the situation. That can be read here.

You can say he was mentally ill and that’s why he deserves sympathy, but isn’t everyone who commits murder mentally ill? Don’t you have to be? There’s no excuse for what he did. Because of this, I’m very, very glad that the Chiefs chose to take a moment of silence before the game in honor of victims of domestic violence, not in memory of a murderer, but there are still too many people forgetting who the real victims are. If you’re interested, there will be a fund for the orphaned daughter opened early this week, as far as I know. There’s no way to donate yet, but as soon as I know how, I’ll tweet it out (@stevenlourie).

The second thing I have an issue with is people saying this game shouldn’t have been played. These people fall into two groups of people, people who literally have their facts wrong and people who think the Chiefs should not be allowed to make their own decisions in how they grieve. I don’t have too much of an issue with the first group of people, people who think the “greedy rich” National Football League MADE them play the game today, unless of course these people are like Michael Silver, who get paid to know things like this and report the facts accurately.

The NFL did not make the Chiefs play this game. At the very least, if they had objected, I’m sure the NFL would not have forced them to play the game. But what was generally reported by (almost) everyone is that the NFL talked with Romeo Crennel, Scott Pioli, the coaches, and the team captains and they decided to continue to play the game as scheduled. Romeo Crennel even said as much in his very well said post-game conference, saying “we’re football players and football coaches and that’s what we do. We play on Sunday.”

That’s why I have an issue with these people thinking this game shouldn’t have been played. If the Chiefs wanted to play the game, let them play. Who are they to tell them how to grieve? They wanted to play football. Very few people out there know what they’re going through and even those very few who do have no right to tell them how to deal with the situation, as I’m sure anyone who has gone through this situation will tell you.

It would have been a major slap in the face to them, the definition of kicking them when they’re down, for the NFL to force them not to play, as some are suggesting should have happened. That insinuates that these grown men are not able to make their own decisions. They are and I have no objection to the one they made.

Do I understand it? Maybe not, but do I have to? Absolutely not. I certainly have no clue how they held it all together and won their 2nd football game of the season today, but I’m not shocked that happened either. This is an emotional situation that I have absolutely no understanding of and I’m definitely in the vast majority there. I’m not going to pretend like I do and that I know better than them. Also, and I can’t confirm this, but it sounds like at least half of the proceeds from the game will go to the fund for the orphaned daughter and to benefit victims of domestic violence, so that’s obviously good.

One of the people who wrote that this game should not go on was Jason Whitlock, a writer for the Kansas City Star and Fox Sports, who I have actually complimented on this site in the past for his article about Roger Goodell’s hypocrisy, forcing the league to play games on Thursday, while simultaneously pretending to care about concussions and injuries. Whitlock actually says in his article about Belcher, “it shouldn’t be their [the Chiefs’] decision. Roger Goodell should’ve made this call,” which absolutely infuriated me. Let them make their own decision.

Whitlock also got into gun control in this article, which leads me to the next thing that really pissed me off: Bob Costas. I hate Bob Costas. I always have. Many people do. The man is incredibly pretentious and insufferable. He always talks as if he is holier than thou and he has the uncanny ability to simultaneously speak from a soapbox while clearly reading off a teleprompter. He adds absolutely nothing to the Sunday Night Football experience and he frequently takes away from it. I’m not even sure he likes football. I wish he was somewhere else because that’s where it feels like he belongs. I’m sure he has a purpose somewhere, but this isn’t it. I make fun of a lot of football commentators, but Costas is the only one I legitimately cannot stand.

However, this week set me over the edge. It wasn’t even the stuff about gun control at first, which has so many second amendment defenders incredibly angry. About 30 seconds into his lecture, I tweeted “Fuck you Bob Costas, you are not fit to talk about the Jovan Belcher situation, go back to sniffing your own farts.” I was really glad this was one of my most retweeted tweets ever because it showed me that people agreed with me. The video can be watched in its entirety here.

That was before he got into gun control. I was just incredibly angry that he looked legitimately happy that this tragic incident happened because it gave him an opportunity to get on his soap box again. He spoke pompously and was clearly fighting to hold back smiles and pure jubilation. He made fun of an old cliché that things like this always help us put things in perspective, by saying that they only put things in perspective long enough until we need another incident to help us put it back into perspective.

He went on to continue with a very arrogant “please” (this is where I lost it actually, he might have well as have “bitch please,” it was that arrogant) and then said “those who need tragedies to continually recalibrate their sense of proportion about sports would seem to have little hope of ever truly achieving perspective,” basically just destroying everyone who has ever agreed with or said what I find to be a very appropriate cliché. And he’s so holier than thou and so much better than people who say that. And he sounded generally excited that this happened so he could point it out. That’s what set me off. He used this tragedy to toot his own horn and talk down to a large portion of people who didn’t do anything wrong. Fuck you.

And then he made a not so smooth transition into gun control, citing Jason Whitlock’s article as some “real perspective.” I say citing, but I pretty much mean that he read the whole thing to us word for word. I’m not even going to tell you where I stand on gun control. That wouldn’t make me any better than him. That’s exactly the point. This is completely the wrong environment for that conversation.

We didn’t tune in to hear about Bob Costas’ political views or anyone’s political views. We tuned in to watch football and hear about stories that relate to football. Bob Costas’ 2nd amendment views were irrelevant to the discussion about Belcher, as are Whitlock’s, but he felt they were so important that we all had to hear them. And even worse, he seemed happy that this tragedy happened so he could promote his political agenda. Again, fuck you.

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