Last week: 28 (+0)
Record: 2-7
On bye.
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Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#29)
Last week: 29 (+0)
Record: 2-7
Last week’s loss was only their 2nd loss by more than a touchdown all year. They aren’t to be overlooked the rest of the way. Cam Newton is obviously having a major sophomore slump, but for all of their offensive struggles, they’ve been noticeably improved defensively this year. They’re allowing 3 points per game fewer than they were last year and even more impressive is that they’re doing this with Jon Beason and Chris Gamble out.
In fact, since week 6, their first game without those two, they’re allowing just 21.4 points per game, thanks to guys like Luke Kuechly and Greg Hardy breaking out. The rookie Kuechly has really improved over the last few weeks, probably because he moved back to his collegiate position of middle linebacker from the outside, and is now a defensive player of the year candidate. It’ll be interesting to see if his emergence in the middle leads to Jon Beason (owed 6.5 million in 2013) getting cut. The man who gave him that ill advised massive contract, ex-GM Marty Hurney, has already been fired and all of his guaranteed money has been paid.
Studs
C Geoff Hangartner: Did not allow a pressure on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts
RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts
TE Greg Olsen: Caught 9 passes for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 5.6 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps
LE Charles Johnson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 pass deflection
MLB Luke Kuechly: 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, caught 2 passes for 38 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection
FS Sherrod Martin: Allowed 2 catches for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops
Duds
QB Cam Newton: 21 of 36 for 241 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 4 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, pressured on 18 of 45 drop backs (7 sacks, 1 scramble, 2 of 10, 1 interception, 4 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)
LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 4 attempts
RT Byron Bell: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 4 attempts
RB Jonathan Stewart: Rushed for 31 yards (20 after contact) on 8 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 2 attempts
WR Brandon LaFell: Caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 5 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 6.5 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty
WR Steve Smith: Caught 1 pass for 19 yards on 4 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch
WR Louis Murphy: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 1 penalty
CB Captain Munnerlyn: Allowed 6 catches for 51 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 3 punt returns for 10 yards
CB Josh Thomas: Allowed 5 catches for 97 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop
LOLB Thomas Davis: Allowed 4 catches for 25 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle
DT Dwan Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops
RE Frank Alexander: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, no tackles
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Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#30)
Last week: 30 (+0)
Record: 3-6
The Raiders surrendered the biggest points total of the year last week in Baltimore and it was just as bad as it sounded. They allowed two special teams touchdowns (one off a fake field goal, one off a kick return) and blew two separate 4th downs thanks to botched quarterback/center exchanges. By the way, I don’t disagree with the Ravens decision to run up the score and go for the fake field goal. One, the Raiders had it coming to them after taunting the Ravens down by close to 30 points on the previous play. Two, I’ve always said, if you don’t want to get the score run up on you, don’t suck. It’s not unsportsmanlike. In fact, it’s more unsportsmanlike to cry because you can’t stop the other team. Three, the Ravens haven’t had a commanding win like that since week 1 so they needed it for morale.
Studs
LT Jared Veldheer: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt
LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts
C Stefen Wisniewski: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 10 attempts, 1 penalty
CB Michael Huff: Allowed 3 catches for 65 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist
P Shane Lechler: 5 punts for 274 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 36 yards, 47.6 net yards per punt
Duds
RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps
ROLB Phillip Wheeler: Allowed 6 catches for 88 yards on 6 attempts, 2 penalties, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops
LOLB Miles Burris: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 63 yards on 5 attempts
FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 3 catches for 51 yards and 2 touchdown on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle
DT Tommy Kelly: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, no tackles
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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#31)
Last week: 31 (+0)
Record: 1-8
I’ve said all along that the Chiefs could be competitive and even win some games if they could avoid losing the turnover battle. They did exactly that last week and took Pittsburgh to overtime, ironically losing on a turnover, their only of the game. They played a very similar game to the Steelers and would have won if not for some costly special teams blunders and penalties, including one for excessive celebration on a touchdown that eventually got overturned and thus never really happened. Still, if they can avoid losing the turnover battle in a few of their games going forward, they can win at least one, which is why they aren’t dead last.
Studs
RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 100 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 1 broken tackle
RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts
CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 3 catches for 14 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop
LOLB Justin Houston: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops
MLB Derrick Johnson: 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 9 stops, allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts
ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle
Duds
TE Steve Maneri: Was not thrown to on 5 pass snaps, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, 1 penalty
WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops
LE Tyson Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops
K Ryan Succop: 3 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 63.7 yards per kickoff, 27.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/3 FG (22, 46, missed from 33)
RB Shaun Draughn: 2 kickoff returns for 29 yards, 1 fumble
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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#32)
Last week: 32 (+0)
Record: 1-8
Still the worst team in the NFL. I think the Chiefs are more likely than they are to win another game the rest of the way. They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are at -1.1. No one else is worse than -0.9. In rate of sustaining drives they are -14.8%, no one else is worse than -9.5%.
The Chiefs have much bigger turnover issues than they do. For all of his faults, Blaine Gabbert’s overly conservative style of play is not one that causes him to turn the ball over a ton. However, turnovers are much more inconsistent. If the Chiefs can avoid losing the turnover battle, they can be competitive, whereas the Jaguars have avoided losing the turnover battle (just -3 on the season) and have not been close to being competitive, as they have a league worst -119 points differential. The Chiefs almost knocked off the Steelers last week because they were able to avoid losing the turnover battle. If they happens a couple more times this year, they’ll win a game.
Studs
C Brad Meester: Did not allow a pressure on 59 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 4 attempts
SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle
LE Austen Lane: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 stop
DT Tyson Alualu: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops
RE Jeremy Mincey: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 23 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops
P Bryan Anger: 5 punts for 236 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 12 yards, 44.8 net yards per punt
Duds
RB Rashad Jennings: Rushed for 27 yards (18 yards after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt
LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 59 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt
RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 59 pass block snaps, 2 penalties
WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 5 attempts on 58 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, allowed 1 sack on 1 pass block snap
CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles
DT Terrence Knighton: 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, as is often the case with the public on heavy leans, I think they’re going to be wrong. There is a simple answer to that question: they’ll beat them the same way they normally beat teams without Ben Roethlisberger.
Since he took over as starter full time during week 3 of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger has missed 13 games. The Steelers are 8-5 in those 13 games, a winning percentage of 62%. When he does play, they have a winning percentage of 70%. It’s a difference, but not a huge difference and that’s just at first glance. If we exclude overtime losses, the Steelers are 8-2 in games without Ben Roethlisberger as they’ve lost 3 of those 5 games in overtime. Going off that, none of those 5 losses has come by more than 6 points, including 3 losses that would have still covered this 3.5 point spread.
It’s true that they have lost 4 times to the Ravens without Ben Roethlisberger (why does he always miss these games?!), but by a combined 15 points, including 3 games decided by just a field goal. In the Joe Flacco era, both of the Ravens’ games against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers have been decided by 3 points, two final scores that would equal a Pittsburgh cover if they were to happen this week and these aren’t the same Ravens as they have been in the past (more on that later).
Overall without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. This year’s defense might not be quite the same as their defenses have been in the past. After all, they’ve had a top-3 scoring defense in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They are missing Troy Polamalu. However, that being said, they rank 7th in opponent’s scoring and 1st in opponent’s yardage, so it’s not like their defense is playing badly. In fact, they’re playing very well. Besides, in the two seasons they did not have a top-3 defense, they still covered in both instances without Ben Roethlisberger.
It’s not just defense that’s winning them these games without Roethlisberger. The whole team seems to play better. They’re a prideful bunch and never roll over easy without Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin (under whom they are 6-2 ATS without Roethlisberger) will have them playing for pride with everyone doubting them against a Ravens team that did beat them twice last year. They’ll definitely want revenge for those losses, in addition to wanting to shut up the critics.
Given all that, it’s ridiculous that the Steelers are +3.5 here at home. A week ago, this line was -5.5. Roethlisberger is good, but he’s certainly not worth 9 points. And even if Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten hurt and this line had stayed -5.5, I would have picked the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -7 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -4.5 and if you average those, you do get slightly higher than -5.5. Obviously, those two formulas don’t do a ton of good in a game where one team is missing a Pro-Bowl quarterback, but at the same time, this line should not have moved 9 full points.
The reason Pittsburgh deserved to be around -5.5 or -6 with Roethlisberger is that the Ravens are overrated. Before last week, this team had not won a single game by 10 or more since week 1 and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, 2 weeks ago at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. Before last week, this team hadn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.
Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 17th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows. Because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well.
Even in last week’s blowout win over the Ravens, they got outgained. They rank just 8th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now and would have deserved to be dogs of 6 or so in Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ side. They certainly don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in Pittsburgh with the Steelers missing Roethlisberger. For reference, they were -3.5 in Cleveland two weeks ago and had trouble covering the spread. You can’t tell me the Steelers are equal to the Browns now.
Aside from that, the Steelers are in a good spot, part of why I would have taken them even had Roethlisberger not gotten hurt and had the line stayed put. Teams are 10-3 ATS after a home overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 32-24 ATS off a home win of 3 or fewer as double digit dogs. Almost losing as big favorites tends to serve as just as good of a wakeup call as actually losing. Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss and 25-18 ATS off a game in which the Steelers failed to cover. He’s also 5-3 ATS in divisional revenge games and, as I mentioned, the Ravens beat the Steelers twice last year.
In addition to all of those trends, two kick in now that Pittsburgh is a dog. Dogs before being favorites are 92-52 ATS since 2011. The Steelers go to Cleveland next week. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS as dogs against the Ravens. I really like the Steelers this week. At the very worst, they should be able to keep this within a field goal again so getting the 3.5 is key. I have a feeling the Steelers pull out the straight up win, however. Everyone is doubting them and they’re traditionally good even without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, the Ravens are overrated.
Public lean: Baltimore (90% range)
Sharps lean: PIT 17 BAL 6
Final update: Glad to see that the sharps agree with my pick of the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +170
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) 5 units
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)
Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but the public is pounding the home favorite. Buffalo is not only infrequently favored, but they’re also incredibly infrequently publicly backed as favorites.
So what went wrong for the Dolphins? Well, first they lost in Indianapolis to the Colts by 3. That’s not embarrassing at all. The Colts stand at 6-3 and even hanging within a field goal of them in Indianapolis is pretty impressive. However, last week, the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans in embarrassing fashion, 37-3. That’s shifted this line from Miami being road favorites to Buffalo being favored.
However, that loss wasn’t as embarrassing as it looked. They got killed in the turnover battle 4-0, setting up Tennessee in great field position, giving them the ability to score 37 points despite just 9 completions and fewer than 300 yards of offense. That being said, this line does hold up to the test of the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential metrics. The former says this line should be Buffalo -1.5 and the latter says this line should be Buffalo -1, which is right around where this line actually is.
What last week’s fluky loss does do is put Miami in a great spot to cover this week. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams tend to be embarrassed and undervalued in this spot and the Dolphins are at least one of those things. They may also be undervalued. Teams are 21-11 ATS since 1989 coming off a game in which they allowed 32 or more points and fewer than 10 completions. This makes sense as those tend to be fluky losses. They may also be dogs before being favorites as they host Seattle (a notoriously bad road team) next week. Teams are 92-52 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons.
Buffalo is also in a bunch of bad spots, starting with the classic sandwich game spot. Teams are 57-82 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs and before being dogs. This works for one of two reasons depending on the type of team favored. For good teams, the sandwich game gives them an opportunity for an “easy” win to get on the right page after a tough loss before playing another tough team. They tend to overlook their opponents. For bad teams, well they shouldn’t be favored. Buffalo is clearly one of the latter teams.
They’re also in a bad spot after coming so close to knocking off divisional rival New England as huge dogs last week. Favorites are 22-30 ATS off a loss as divisional double digit dogs since 1989 and divisional favorites after a loss as divisional dogs are 96-112 ATS since 1989. Neither of those trends is particularly strong, but if you combine them, you get that teams are 5-12 ATS as divisional favorites off a loss as double digit divisional dogs. Meanwhile, favorites on Thursday Nights are 0-4 ATS off a divisional loss as dogs.
I like Miami for a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 413 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 413 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time. I also like the under, as usual, on Thursday Night. The under is 71-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.
Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)
Miami Dolphins 23 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +105 4 units
Pick against spread: Miami +1.5 (-110) 0 units
Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit
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Week 10 NFL Picks Results
Week 10 Results
ATS: 7-7 +5 units/+$370
SU: 8-5-1
Upset Picks: 1-1 +20
Over/Under: 1-1 -10
Total: +$380
Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units
2012 results to date
ATS: 73-68-5 +19 units/+$255
SU: 93-52-1
Upset Picks: 26-24 +$2160
Over/Under: 6-4-1 +160
Parlays: 1-0 +100
Total: +2675
Survivor: 8-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)
Public Results ATS*: 70-74-2 -2 units
*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.
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Week 11 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims
RB Marcel Reece (Oakland)
Percent owned (ESPN): 11.3%
With Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson both out with high ankle sprains, it was Marcel Reece, not Taiwan Jones, who carried the load. In fact, Jones saw just 2 carries behind some guy named Jeremy Stewart, who was 2nd on the team with 7. Reece rushed for just 48 yards, but also caught 7 passes for 56 yards. The Raiders were down for pretty much the whole game and could never get any rhythm in the running game, but Reece proved that he can produce no matter the situation. If the Raiders have to go pass heavy, Reece just picks up yards through the air. McFadden and Goodson are out indefinitely and Reece is a RB2/flex as long as he’s starting, so he should be owned universally.
WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)
Percent owned (ESPN): 15.7%
I don’t know how he’s done it, but Shorts seems to have emerged as a productive receiver in the wasteland known as Jacksonville. Gabbert still isn’t any good, but Shorts has caught 21 passes for 356 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last 4 games, since he’s become a starter, so he’s gotten to the point where he’s worth starting him depending on the matchup. Next up, they get Houston, which isn’t promising, but they have some easier pass defenses on the schedule.
WR Danario Alexander (San Diego)
Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%
Starting over free agent bust Robert Meachem, Alexander caught 5 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown and now has 8 catches for 195 yards and a score in 2 starts (he got the first one because Meachem was injured). On the year, Meachem has just 13 catches for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns, so Alexander will probably be the guy going forward and Rivers does seem to like throwing to him. He’s worth an add.
RB Chris Ivory (New Orleans)
Percent owned (ESPN): 2.3%
Ivory has taken advantage of Darren Sproles’ injury and now has 135 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last 2 games. Sproles isn’t expected back yet and while Ivory is still splitting carries with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram, he’s also outperforming them so he could see his role expand in the coming weeks.
TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)
Percent owned (ESPN): 16.5%
Slow and steady, Brandon Myers has 44 catches for 499 yards and 2 touchdowns in 9 games and has only gone below 44 yards once. He’s borderline startable in standard leagues and has more value in a PPR league.
QB Nick Foles (Philadelphia)
Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%
Nick Foles didn’t look great against Dallas, but he still threw for 212 yards and a touchdown in not even a full game. This week, he gets a full week of starters reps as he’s already been named the starter over a concussed Vick and he gets to face Washington’s 27th ranked pass defense. If you’re having quarterback problems or your quarterback is one a bye, consider Foles.
QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)
Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%
Alex Smith got hurt and it’s unknown how long he’ll be out. Colin Kaepernick is not going to do much through the air, but he does enough as a runner that he’s an intriguing fantasy option going forward. He rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown in not even a full game against St. Louis this week. Those would be good numbers for a running back, but Kaepernick did add another 117 yards through the air. He’s worth a stash and wait in deeper leagues.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)
Percent owned (ESPN): 11.3%
Michael Turner’s effort was pathetic against the Saints, as he managed just 15 yards on 13 carries against one of the league’s worst run defenses and struggled to even pick up short yardage when they needed him to, including on the goal line for a potential game winner. Turner is now 3 of 17 in goal to go situations this year. Maybe the Falcons will give more work to Rodgers, who almost doubled Turner’s rushing yardage on 3 carries with 29 yards (and added 4 catches for 33 yards), going forward.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation through 8 games, the first time a team has done that since 1929 and that team folded after the season. Actually, they were also the first team to do that through 7 games since 1929 as well. However, they aren’t the worst team in the NFL. They don’t rank dead last in either rate of sustaining drives differential or yards per play differential (that distinction belongs to Jacksonville). They rank 24th and 31st respectively in those two statistics and that’s including sometime that the inferior Brady Quinn spent at quarterback.
The reason that those two important statistics say they’re slightly better than their record is their turnover differential. Through just 8 games, they are -20 in turnovers. Even if they tied the NFL single season record of -30 (record is -28 since merger), their turnover differential would be -10 in their final 8 games, two times better than it was in their first eight games. Besides, turnover differentials tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis, as you can see here. Turnovers aside, they’re not completely horrific.
We are getting line value with them even if you don’t take into account that Brady Quinn spent some time at quarterback. Cassel is the better quarterback and, at the very least, his interception rate will go back to his career average. If you average out those two real line calculations, you get -12 and this line is -12.5. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss, coming off a loss in San Diego this week. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot. Meanwhile, as well as the Steelers are playing, they’re still not a team built to blow people out and cover a 12 point spread like this without Troy Polamlau, with whom they allow about a touchdown less per game than without over the past few years.
We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean with Kansas City. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.
That being said, it’s only a one unit play. Kansas City is too horrible to put more than that on them. They seem to have a knack for being blown out and it’s not just this season. Dating back to 2010, they’ve lost 14 games by 16 or more games, out of 23 total losses. Even from 2010-2011, a stretch in which they went 17-16, they still lost 9 or more by a blowout score. That could happen again here, but I do like the dog. The Steelers are also my survivor pick.
Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)
Sharps lean: KC 5 PIT 1
Final update: Sharps lean is exactly what I expected. People don’t like Pittsburgh, but no one really wants to take Kansas City either.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)
Pick against spread: Kansas City +12.5 (-110) 1 unit
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Football Fan Spot 