Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Raiders, Ravens

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

The Ravens may be 6-2, but dating back to week 1, this team has not won a single game by 10 or more and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, last week at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. This team hasn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 26th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 19th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows and because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well. They rank just 9th in yards per play differential and 19th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now.

The Raiders aren’t very good either, but we’re getting line value with them. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7, but the rate of sustaining drives method, the one Baltimore really struggles in, says this line should be -3.5 as Oakland ranks 23th, as opposed to Baltimore ranking 19th. That says these two teams are pretty even. I’m not saying they are. We have to look at both metrics to give us the whole picture, but we’re definitely getting line value with the road team here and pretty significant line value. The Ravens don’t deserve to be -7.5 here.

We’re also getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Baltimore is also in a bad spot as they go to Pittsburgh next week, a huge game for them. They’re not going to be focused for the lowly non-divisional Raiders with that huge game on their schedule. They’re also coming off a divisional win against the Browns. Teams are 8-15 ATS as non-divisional touchdown favorites off a divisional win as favorites before being divisional dogs since 1989. It’s a very specific trend, but it makes sense. Why would the Ravens be focused for the Raiders after a divisional win before facing their biggest rival, the divisional Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Ravens have won 15 straight home games and they are 20-1 at home in the last 2 and a half seasons, but they’re also just 8-12 ATS at home in that stretch. They’re winning, but not by a lot, which has pretty much been the story of this Ravens’ season (2 wins by more than a touchdown). I love getting more than a touchdown with the Raiders. They’re also just 3-9 ATS as 7+ home dogs since 2010. If the Raiders didn’t have to play this game as a West Coast team at 1 PM ET on the East Coast, this would be a bigger play, but it’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 6 OAK 4

Final update: No change.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, Seahawks

New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4)

I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle this week. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

The reason I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle is because I love them this week. There’s a slight public lean, but not enough to deter me from making a big play on them. First off, Seattle is amazing at home. They’re undefeated at home this year. Dating back to 2007, they’re 31-14 ATS at home and this year’s team might be their most talented team in that stretch, part of the reason why they are 5-0 ATS at home this year. Since 2007, they are 15-6 ATS as home favorites and 10-1 ATS at home after a home game.

They balance everything out by going 16-30 ATS on the road in that stretch. For that reason, I’ve always said that the Seahawks should have to lay more than the traditional extra 3 points at home (and get more than 3 on the road). They outscore opponents by 4.4 points at home and get outscored by 8.3 on the road. Average those out and we should really be using something like 6 points in each direction for home field advantage when figuring out the real line for Seattle’s game. It’s such a big disparity.

This line is -6. The yards per play method of computing real line says this line should be -7 (taking into account just 3 points for home field) and the rate of sustaining drives method says this line should be -6. Even before you add what’s a necessary 6 points to Seattle’s total rather than 3 for home field, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the original line of -6, using this new number for home field in Seattle’s game, suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all.

Speaking of this line being -6, home favorites of 6 or more are 45-15 ATS before a bye and Seattle goes into a bye next week. When you take out 10+ home favorites from the equation, that trend becomes 33-8 ATS for home favorites of 6-9.5 before a bye. Home teams tend to be extra focused and take care of business going into a bye when they have a clear talent advantage over the opponent and don’t have to cover a double digit margin and that’s the case here. I know the Jets are coming off a bye, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Since 1989, home favorites of 6-9.5 are 6-3 ATS before a bye when their opponent is coming off a bye. It’s a small sample, but there’s certainly nothing to deter me. It’s a big play on Seattle.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 18 SEA 4

Final update: Once again going to disagree with the sharps. Seattle is great at home, great at home off a home game, and 6-9.5 points home favorites dominate going into a bye. Besides, the odds makers need favorites to cover (to continue to close the favorites/dogs disparity) and they also need to make their money back. Any favorite not publicly backed (this one has even action) is a good idea.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -6 (-110) 4 units

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Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-1

Back to this. I really broke my own rule by overreacting to the Bears’ near lose to the lowly Panthers and dropping them down even though I’ve never been sold on Atlanta. The Bears’ huge blowout win helped me see the light. Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it.

They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has. With guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. Offensively, they can run the ball, Jay Cutler is playing well. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is so hard to sack. I think they’ll continue to be fine. However, with two games against Houston and San Francisco in the next 2 weeks, we’ll get an answer real soon.

Studs

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 103 yards (61 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 12 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 45 yards on 2 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Didn’t allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 9 passes for 122 yards on 9 attempts, 2.3 YAC per catch, 3 drops

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 26 for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 114.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 30 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 9, 2 touchdowns, 2 throw away)

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 8 catches for 71 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

K Robbie Gould: 10 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.4 yards per kickoff, 18.7 opponent’s average starting position, 3/3 FG (22, 25, 40)

Duds

TE Kellen Davis: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps, didn’t catch a pass on 24 pass snaps

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -1 yards on 3 attempts

RE Julius Peppers: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Houston Texans: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

The Texans didn’t put much effort into their game against the Bills, though they still won by 12, so I’m not going to put much effort into this write up. They’ll win the AFC’s top seed with ease regardless of what happens. They really only play 2 teams with close to their talent level the rest of the way, Chicago (this week) and New England, and even if they lose both, only the banged up Ravens, who they blew out and who they hold the tiebreaker with, have less than 3 losses in the AFC, while Houston only has 1. Those two games will just be bench marks games for them to prove themselves because they got blown out by the Packers at home, the only really tough opponent they had (keep in mind, Denver hadn’t hit their stride yet when they played and I don’t count Baltimore).

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 19 of 27 for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 105.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured 7 on 29 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 5, 1 throw away)

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 6.4 YAC per catch

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 4 passes for 62 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 5 catches for 48 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Donnie Jones: 5 punts for 247 yards, 0 inside 20, 4 returns for 37 yards, 42.0 net yards per punt

Duds

C Chris Myers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 46 yards on 13 attempts

MLB Tim Dobbins: Allowed 8 catches for 97 yards on 9 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antonio Smith: 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

K Shayne Graham: 4 kickoff, 0 touchbacks, 51.5 yards per kickoff, 26.5 opponent’s average starting position, 0/1 FG

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 8-0

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 24 of 34 for 342 yards, 2 drops, 98.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 38 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 9 of 12)

WR Roddy White: Caught 7 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 129 yards on 6 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch

DT Jonathan Babineaux: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Kroy Biermann: 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

FB Lousaka Polite: Didn’t catch a pass on 1 attempt on 4 pass snaps, 1 drop, allowed 1 sack on 2 pass block snaps

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 7 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 6 catches for 83 yards on 7 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Denver Broncos: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 5-3

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They could challenge the Patriots’ for the 2nd seed in the AFC, but the Patriots have the tiebreaker, so they have the advantage there. That would leave Peyton Manning the Broncos in the 3rd seed and possibly facing his replacement Andrew Luck and his greatest rival Tom Brady in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 27 of 35 for 291 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 4 drops, 108.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 3 of 35 drop backs (2 of 3, 1 interception)

C Dan Koppen: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 7 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps

RG Chris Kuper: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 6 attempts

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: Allowed 6 catches for 29 yards on 8 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

ROLB Von Miller: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 66 yards (51 after contact) on 23 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 1 attempt

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 5 catches for 49 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Derek Wolfe: 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 5-3

The Steelers have been awfully impressive the last few weeks and even more impressive is that they’re doing it without Troy Polamalu. Over the last few years, they allow about a touchdown less per game when he’s in the lineup as opposed to when he’s not in the lineup, so just a imagine how good they’ll be once he returns. Ben Roethlisberger is quietly having an MVP type season as he’s on pace for 4406 yards, 7.4 YPA, 67.1% completion, and 32 touchdowns to 8 interceptions.

He is 5th in the NFL in QB rating and is on pace for the 2nd best QB rating of his career, behind 2007, when he threw just 404 times on a conservative offense. This year, he’s thrown 298 times on a more pass heavy offense that has had a spotty running game. You could argue this is the best regular season of his career. If they get Polamlau back for the two Baltimore games, they could easily sweep both games against an underwhelming Baltimore team and either way, they’re the favorite in the NFC North.

Studs

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 147 yards (121 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 carries, 6 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 2 attempts

LG Willie Colon: Didn’t allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 6 attempts

RG Ramon Foster: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 attempts

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 batted pass, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB LaMarr Woodley: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Lawrence Timmons: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 1 attempt

Duds

RT Mike Adams: Allowed 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Larry Foote: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 4 attempts

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New York Giants: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 5 (-3)

Record: 6-3

I picked the Giants to win last week, but it wasn’t confident and I only picked them because the Steelers had to travel on the day of the game because of Hurricane Sandy. In normal conditions, I would have picked the Steelers because this is right around when the Giants struggle. Under Tom Coughlin, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 27-38 in the final 8 games of the season. If anyone in their division could give them a challenge for a playoff spot, they might not be in my top-12, but their division has been incredibly disappointing after a strong start to the season.

Studs

LT William Beatty: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 4 attempts

LG Kevin Boothe: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

LE Justin Tuck: 2 sacks on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Osi Umenyiora: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Corey Webster: Allowed 2 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

QB Eli Manning: 10 of 24 for 125 yards and an interception, 1 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 50.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 26 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 6, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

RT David Diehl: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 29 yards on 5 attempts

RG Chris Snee: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

WR Hakeem Nicks: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch

CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 5 catches for 59 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Mark Herzlich: 5 solo tackles, 3 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

DT Chris Canty: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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