Dec 132014
 

San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4) This line moved from Seattle being favored by 6.5 last week to them now being favored by 10. I normally hate going with huge line movements, especially doing so also means siding with the public, because significant line movements tend to be overreactions and traps for the [...]

Nov 262014
 

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4) The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they [...]

Nov 222014
 

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4) The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving [...]

Oct 182014
 

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night [...]

Sep 232014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2) Ordinarily, I’d be all over the 49ers here considering how good they’ve been as big favorites and how good they’ve been off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-4-1 ATS off of a loss and 9-3 straight up, outscoring opponents [...]

Sep 202014
 

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0) With the exception of last week’s epic debacle against the Bears, the 49ers generally are good at beating up on weaker opponents. They are 24-13 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 [...]

Aug 222014
 

QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco) In the 8 games Kaepernick played with Michael Crabtree last season, Kaepernick completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 7.78 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in those 8 games, numbers more reminiscent of 2012. That’s as opposed to 56.7% completion, 7.41 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions [...]

Jan 132014
 

San Francisco 49ers (14-4) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3) I almost never go against the Seahawks at home and with good reason. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 39-19 ATS at home, including 23-11 ATS as home favorites. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going [...]

Jan 082014
 

San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4) The Panthers won in San Francisco earlier this season, helping propel them to a 12-4 record, the #2 seed, and home field advantage in the NFC divisional round. In spite of all that, they are 1 point home underdogs here. Ordinarily, I’d think this would be a [...]

Jan 022014
 

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) Aaron Rodgers is back for the Packers and that obviously makes a big difference. He started out a little shaky against Chicago, understandable because he missed almost 2 months with injury, throwing 2 early picks, but bounced back to finish 25 of 39 for 318 yards [...]

Dec 252013
 

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5) The Cardinals proved themselves last week to be a very good football team, going into Seattle, where no one has won in two years, and winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams rarely are able to overcome a -2 turnover margin, winning just about 17.7% [...]

Dec 182013
 

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4) Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 97 of 156 (62.2%) for 1356 yards (8.69 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 230 yards [...]