Dec 192015
 

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-9) The 49ers are the worst team in rate of moving the chains differential by a mile, coming in at -11.92%, while no one else is worse than -7.14%. That was on display last week, as they lost 24-10 in Cleveland, against a terrible Browns team. The Bengals, […]

Dec 122015
 

San Francisco 49ers (4-8) at Cleveland Browns (2-10) The Browns have the league’s worst record, so the public seems to be confused why they’re favored here, at home against the 49ers, as the public is all over the visitor. I’m confused why they’re not favored by more. They were favored by a field goal a […]

Nov 272015
 

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7) The Cardinals were favored by just 8 points in this game against the 49ers on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 10. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, […]

Nov 212015
 

San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5) The Seahawks covered in 15 of their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era, but they are just 6-7 ATS since. What happened? Do they not have the same homefield advantage anymore? It’s possible, but I think two others things have contributed to that more. […]

Sep 262015
 

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0) Through 2 games, the Arizona Cardinals rank #1 in the league in rate of moving the chains differential. It’s only been two games, against a schedule that hasn’t been tough (New Orleans and Chicago), and it’s important not to forget that they ranked 17thiin that category in […]

Sep 122015
 

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0) To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites […]

Dec 242014
 

Arizona Cardinals (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-8) This line has shifted from 4 to 6 over the past week. Normally, I love fading significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions. Rate of moving the chains also says this line is too high, as the Cardinals rank 16th, moving the chains at a […]

Dec 202014
 

San Diego Chargers (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-7) The public is all over the Chargers here. It’s understandable. The 49ers have lost 3 straight games, haven’t covered since week 11 in New York against the Giants and haven’t covered at home since week 13 of last season. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs and […]

Dec 132014
 

San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4) This line moved from Seattle being favored by 6.5 last week to them now being favored by 10. I normally hate going with huge line movements, especially doing so also means siding with the public, because significant line movements tend to be overreactions and traps for the […]