Trade for Baltimore: I get that the Ravens were going to cut Anquan Boldin if they couldn’t find a suitor via trade and given that it’s good that they got something for him, but I question the logic of cutting him in the first place. He was just as big a reason why they won [...]
Trade for Chiefs: I was stunned when I saw what the 49ers got for Alex Smith. When news that the 49ers and Chiefs likely had a deal in place for Alex Smith broke, it was rumored that they got anything from a 3rd to 5th rounder. Reports leading up to the trade said that the [...]
A lot is being made about the 4th and goal non-holding call by the referees that essentially ended the game. I don’t think it was necessarily a bad call. It was a borderline call and either team would have had a beef depending on the outcome of the call. Obviously it’s not the way you [...]
I did a Super Bowl preview last week, which can be read here, and now I’m going to do an actual Super Bowl pick. For those of you who don’t want to read the whole preview now, here’s a little bit of a summary. The 49ers have been arguably the best team in the NFL [...]
Colin Kaepernick vs. Joe Flacco. That’s our Super Bowl quarterback matchup. In the era of the quarterback, that seems inconceivable. A guy with 9 career starts and…well Joe Flacco. In the last 20 years, there’s been one quarterback to win a Super Bowl without first making a Pro-Bowl and that was Eli Manning (version one), [...]
I’m going to do New England/Baltimore later in the week, but I had to lock this one in now because this line is ridiculous. Atlanta is 5 point home underdogs. Being a home underdog in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. Even being a home underdog as a #1 seed in the Conference Championship isn’t [...]
This is one of three rematch games this week. It has several obvious differences from Baltimore/Denver and New England/Houston. Both of those games were blowouts. Both of those games were fairly recent. These two teams played way back in week 1 and San Francisco won 30-22. And both of those games are once again expected [...]
It’s a shame Justin Smith had to get hurt. I was really interested to see just how much of a quarterback league this really is. We know it’s a quarterback league. Of the last 21 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, 20 made a Pro-Bowl first. As meaningless as the Pro-Bowl is and as bad a job [...]
Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) It’s usually a smart thing to take well coached teams off a loss. They’re generally extra focused in a bounce back game the following week. Bill Belichick is 35-20 ATS off a loss since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 22-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin [...]
Last week: 1 (-5) Record: 10-4-1 Net points per drive: 0.70 (5th) DVOA: 30.8% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 26.8 (5th) Studs LG Mike Iupati: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 2 attempts RG Alex Boone: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for [...]
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 46-20 ATS since 2005, including 16-8 ATS as home dogs. They’ve already knocked off the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots as home dogs this season, en [...]
Last week: 2 (+1) Record: 10-3-1 Net points per drive: 0.90 (2nd) DVOA: 34.8% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 35.1% (4th) The 49ers won last week and earned this spot, at least until they lose in Seattle this week. Then would Seattle be #1 even though you can’t trust them to win a single road playoff game, [...]
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3) Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case. Teams normally carry the momentum [...]
Last week: 2 (+0) Record: 9-3-1 Net points per drive: 0.95 (2nd) DVOA: 34.8% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 33.9% (4th) Nothing has changed. I still feel this week’s Patriots/49ers game will be a Super Bowl preview and I think the winner will be the Super Bowl favorite. Right now, the Patriots are the favorites to win [...]
Miami Dolphins (5-7) at San Francisco 49ers (8-3) The 49ers lost to the Rams last week in St. Louis, which has gotten a lot of Alex Smith supporters saying “I told you so,” questioning Jim Harbaugh’s decision to bench Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick. These people seem to be forgetting that Smith was losing to [...]
Last week: 2 (+0) Record: 8-3-1 Net points per drive: 0.92 (2nd) DVOA: 35.1% (3rd) Weighted DVOA: 32.2% (4th) Studs QB Colin Kaepernick: 21 of 32 for 208 yards, 4 throw aways, 3 drops, 105.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 40 drop backs (3 sacks, 3 scrambles, 2 of 6, 2 throw aways), [...]
San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at St. Louis Rams (4-7) Colin Kaepernick is now officially quarterback of the 49ers and it’s definitely the right move. I don’t think the 49ers ever really scared anyone with Alex Smith under center. He wasn’t why they were winning. Kaepernick gives this team such a higher upside. He allows them [...]
Last week: 2 (+0) Record: 8-2-1 Net points per drive: 0.96 (2nd) DVOA: 40.1% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 40.1% (2nd) Tier 1: Contenders Studs LT Joe Staley: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts WR Mario Manningham: Caught 5 passes for 69 yards on 5 [...]
When I grade big money signings, I like to do it by comparing it to other recent deals given to players at the same position. The middle linebacker position is an especially interesting one. In today’s NFL, the position is devalued a little as this is a pass friendly league and middle linebackers don’t have [...]
San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5) Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith [...]
Last week: 6 (+4) The 49ers would be #1 in these Power Rankings if I knew, first that Colin Kaepernick was going to be their starter for the rest of the season and second that his performance on Monday Night was not a fluke. We’ll know the answer to both of those questions in the [...]
Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2) I can’t make a final pick on this one because there are too many unknowns with injuries and with the line in general (it’s not yet posted). However, I can do a reasonable preview based on what we do know. Here’s what we know. We know Jay [...]
Last week: 6 (+0) Record: 6-2-1 Under St. Louis’ write up, I made a sarcastic comment about ties. Now it’s time for a full, serious rant. The NFL’s overtime rules are ridiculous. I love that they changed it so you can’t win with a field goal on your opening drive, but they need to make [...]
St. Louis Rams (3-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2) The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to always take the home team. Since 2007, the NFC West is 104-77 in general at home and they have not only the best ATS winning percentage of any division in football in that time period, [...]
Last week: 7 (+1) Record: 6-2 On bye.