Nov 132015

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6) The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in […]

Sep 262015

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-2) I had the Ravens winning 11 games, the AFC North, and making the playoffs coming into the season, after finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014. However, they have started the season 0-2. Losing in Denver was understandable, but their loss in Oakland was […]

Jan 072015

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) I was ready to make a big play on the Patriots this week. They haven’t looked good in a while. With most teams, that’s a concern, but that’s never been a concern with the Patriots in the Brady/Belichick era. In fact, short periods of struggles tend to […]

Jan 022015

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite finishing the season ranked 3rd […]

Dec 232014

Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6) The Browns’ offense ranks 27th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, and they’ve gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. They’re moving the chains at a pathetic 63.44% rate over the past 10 games since Alex Mack went down. The returns of […]

Dec 172014

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Houston Texans (7-7) This line was Houston -1 last week and now it’s Baltimore -6 in Houston. That’s a massive line movement, as it’s moved a full touchdown to compensate for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury. That’s a massive overreaction. Fitzpatrick is decent, but the Texans’ offense ranks just 19th in the NFL […]

Dec 122014

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5) Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 […]

Dec 062014

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5) The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed […]

Nov 252014

San Diego Chargers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4) This line is way too low. The Ravens rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.84% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 4.55%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 15th, moving the chains at […]

Nov 192014

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6) The Saints have lost back-to-back home games, but that doesn’t completely erase what they’ve historically done at home in recent memory. Before these last two games, they had won 20 straight home games under Sean Payton and they are still 18-3-1 ATS at home over their last […]