1-16 17-32 2nd Round 3rd Round 4th Round 5th Round 6th Round 7th Round
17. New England Patriots- OT Tyron Smith (USC)
This will be a tough one between Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan for the Patriots. I think they’d feel fortunate to have one or the other available at 17, but both are in this mock. That’s what an early run on quarterbacks will do. I think offensive line will be seen as a bigger need for the Patriots here. They need to keep Tom Brady upright and they have stopgaps like Marcus Stroud and Gerard Warren at end. If Matt Light leaves, they don’t have the same luxury at offensive tackle.
Other options:
Cameron Jordan- As I already mentioned, Jordan is the other option. He could be their Richard Seymour for the next 10 years.
18. San Diego Chargers- 3-4 DE Cameron Jordan (California)
Cameron Jordan would be the logical choice here. Defensive end and rush linebacker are their two biggest needs and they aren’t going to admit a mistake on Larry English by taking another rush linebacker in the first two years after taking English in the first. Cameron Jordan could go as high as 9 to Dallas and fills a major need. Of course, the Chargers don’t always make the logical move. They always do something to tear a hole in everyone’s mock, whether it’s a trade down and the selection of someone no one had on their radar. I’ll elaborate in the other options section.
Other options:
Trade up- With 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, they’re in position to try to move up if there’s someone they like. That someone could be JJ Watt at 9 and Dallas is known to be shopping the pick.
Cameron Heyward- They’re also known to like Cameron Heyward, but they wouldn’t take him over Cameron Jordan…right?
Jonathan Baldwin- They don’t have either of their starting receivers signed long term so they could take a receiver here. Baldwin has the size they like in a receiver and could cause San Diego to look past his character issues. They’ve reached for receivers in the first before (Buster Davis).
Anthony Castonzo- If they fall in love with Anthony Castonzo, he could be the pick. They have a need on the right side and, though they could fill that need in the 2nd or the 3rd, they might pull the trigger on Castonzo.
19. New York Giants- OT Anthony Castonzo (Boston College)
I’ve been reluctant to put Anthony Castonzo here, but too many people in the know have him here so for to put it off any longer. I still believe they should give William Beatty more of a shot at left tackle, but they seem to think of him as their right tackle of the future. Castonzo steps in at left tackle and allows David Diehl to move to guard, which is a big need of theirs. With Mike Pouncey off the board, the decision should be pretty easy for New York.
Other options:
Mark Ingram- Ingram’s range starts at 19 according to many experts.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DE Adrian Clayborn (Iowa)
I’ve had Justin Houston here in recent weeks, but he tested positive for marijuana at The Combine and the Buccaneers are currently going through a bad situation with Aqib Talib, who had drug problems in college and now, years later, is facing 5 years in jail for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. The Buccaneers are known to like Clayborn and badly need defensive end help after managing just 54 sacks in the last 2 seasons combined.
Other options:
Justin Houston- They could still take Houston. Weed isn’t a huge problem for non-quarterbacks unless they start thinking they’re above the law and committing actual serious crimes.
Da’Quan Bowers- Bowers is the other end in this range, but they don’t seem to be high on him.
Trade up: If Robert Quinn is sitting there at 10 and Washington wants to move down, they’ll definitely be on the phone with the Redskins.
21. Kansas City Chiefs- OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
The Chiefs are known to be pretty high on Nate Solder and I’ve definitely considered a tackle here in recent mocks, with Anthony Castonzo here in my last upside. If they like Solder, I completely understand the logic. Brandan Albert struggles at left tackle and the regime that drafted him in the first in 2008 is gone. He’d make a better right tackle, where they also have a major need. Solder could play right tackle right away and then swap positions with Albert when ready.
Other options:
Akeem Ayers- With Mike Vrabel at the end of his line, they could take Ayers, a younger version of Vrabel, in my opinion. Tamba Hali is a great pass rusher, but if they could add another #2 rush linebacker opposite him, especially one like Ayers who is versatile and can do other things besides rush the passer, that would help this team a lot.
Phil Taylor- Scott Pioli passed on BJ Raji for Tyson Jackson in 2009. He passed on Terrence Cody twice in the 2nd last year. He might not want to pass on Taylor so he can grab his Vince Wilfork, like he had in New England.
22. Indianapolis Colts- OT Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State)
Assuming Mike Pouncey is off the board, I can’t see this being anything other than any offensive tackle. They have already admitted they should have taken Rodger Saffold in 2010 at 31, over Jerry Hughes. Teams rarely admit mistakes on first rounders, especially after just one year, so you know they’re serious. Sherrod, who they are known to like, would be their do-over and would fit their history of drafting offensive players early to help Peyton Manning.
Other options:
Gabe Carimi- Carimi is the other available offensive tackle in this spot.
23. Philadelphia Eagles- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
The Eagles have brought in the great Howard Mudd to fix their offensive line. They could still go with a tackle like Gabe Carimi here, but with other needs, I think they ignore the offensive line in the first and let Howard Mudd work his magic. Plus, Carimi isn’t a great fit for Mudd’s blocking scheme. Jimmy Smith gives them a much needed upgrade at cornerback opposite Asante Samuel, with Ellis Hobbs retiring due to a neck injury. He has character concerns, but they’ve looked past character concerns before with guys like Michael Vick.
Other options:
Gabe Carimi- Carimi is still an option.
Benjamin Ijalana- Ijalana is a late riser in this draft process and fits Mudd’s scheme better than Carimi.
24. New Orleans Saints- DE Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson)
Bowers knee injury has dropped him out of the top ten and many experts are speculating that his range doesn’t even begin until 20. I, personally, wouldn’t take him in the first round and give him a first rounder’s contract, given what I know about his knee, but I’m not a doctor. If the Saints’ doctors aren’t too scared of Bowers’ longevity with his knee, he’s worth the risk at 24 for a team that’s in a position to take a risk and that desperately needs defensive line help. They said they would have taken Jerry Hughes at 32 last year had the Colts not taken him at 31.
Other options:
Muhammad Wilkerson- A different position, but the same idea, upgrade the defensive line. Defensive tackle and defensive end are both major needs of theirs.
Phil Taylor- Taylor is a different option at defensive tackle. They’ve brought in Shaun Rogers at defensive tackle, a sign that they don’t mind bigger defensive tackles. Taylor would be the long term fix, whereas Rogers is just a stopgap at this point in his career.
Justin Houston- Houston is another option at defensive end if they’re scared off by Bowers’ medical, but really want to go defensive end in the first round.
Brooks Reed- If they really want to go defensive end in the first round and are scared off by Bowers’ medical and Houston’ positive drug test, Reed is the 3rd end, but he’s a reach at 24.
25. Seattle Seahawks- OT Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin)
I’ve had quarterback here in recent weeks, but given all they gave up for Charlie Whitehurst, they’re probably going to be stubborn with him and give him a shot to win the starting quarterback job for the future even though he really struggled last year. If they don’t go quarterback, Carimi makes a lot of sense. He’s probably only a right tackle, but the Seahawks only need a right tackle with Russell Okung on the left side and he’s a really, really good right tackle. There’s a lot of value in having two bookend tackles for the future.
Other options:
Ryan Mallett- If they admit their mistake on a Whitehurst, Mallett seems to make the most sense of the available quarterbacks. The Seahawks have looked past character problems before and Mallett has by far the most talent of any quarterback available.
Christian Ponder- If not Mallett, Ponder is a really good fit for their scheme.
26. Baltimore Ravens- 3-4 DE Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)
The Ravens managed just 27 sacks last year with 11 of those coming from Terrell Suggs and 5.5 coming from Haloti Ngata, meaning the rest of their team only managed 11.5 sacks. They badly need a 3rd pass rusher and have mentioned pass rusher as a focus of their draft. They’re known to like Cameron Heyward, who would give them an upgrade over Cory Redding and his 2.5 sacks.
Other options:
Muhammad Wilkerson- Their board seems to be Derek Sherrod, Cameron Heyward, Gabe Carimi. That might not be accurate and Wilkerson could be rated higher than Heyward at the same position.
Justin Houston- They might look past his positive drug test and take the talented rush linebacker here. He’d give them a 3rd pass rusher and makes sense if they have given up on Sergio Kindle, their 2010 2nd round pick who fractured his skull and might never be able to suit up for them.
Akeem Ayers- If they don’t look past Houston’s drug test, Ayers is another rush linebacker option.
Brooks Reed- If they don’t look past Houston’s drug test and want a more proven pass rusher, Reed is another rush linebacker option.
Trade down- The Ravens have shown a willingness to move down in recent years and a quarterback hungry team might find the 26th pick attractive.
27. Atlanta Falcons- TE Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame)
This has become a popular pick in recent days and some are even saying that the Falcons have locked in on Kyle Rudolph, who probably wouldn’t go before this pick. Tony Gonzalez could be done after next season and he struggled late last year managing more than 4 catches twice after week 9, including a 1 catch performance in their playoff loss to Green Bay.
Other options:
Brooks Reed- Defensive end is a major need of theirs and Reed fits what they like in a player, good motor, proven in college, blue collar, team captain, played in a major conference.
Justin Houston- Houston might be more talented than Reed, but they’re not going to like his failed drug test.
28. New England Patriots- 3-4 DE Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple)
After passing on Cameron Jordan for Tyron Smith at 17, defensive end is a major possibility here at 28. Wilkerson is the last of the first round 3-4 ends and could end up being their Richard Seymour for the next 10 years.
Other options:
Justin Houston- They’ve looked past failed drug tests before (Brandon Tate, Aaron Hernandez), but with Houston, Reed, and Ayers all still available, they can probably get a good first round caliber rush linebacker at 33. You can’t say the same thing about 3-4 defensive end.
Trade down- The Patriots love to trade down and are known to be shopping this pick. A team desperate for a quarterback could give them a future first, which could end up being a top 10 pick in 2012 with a rookie salary cap. No big deal.
29. Chicago Bears- DT Marvin Austin (North Carolina)
Given how badly Jay Cutler was beat up last year, 56 sacks in the regular season, they’re probably praying a first round tackle falls here and even if one doesn’t, Benjamin Ijalana could be the pick here, though he’d be a slight reach. I’m not mocking Ijalana here though. They love Marvin Austin and he also fills a major need of theirs, defensive tackle, after they cut Tommie Harris.
Other options:
Benjamin Ijalana- Offensive line is the bigger need and Ijalana isn’t a huge reach at this point in the draft.
Stephen Paea- Paea is the other defensive tackle I’ve heard linked to this spot.
30. New York Jets- NT Phil Taylor (Baylor)
Rex Ryan reportedly likes Phil Taylor and I can definitely understand why. Taylor is 330 pounds, but plays like he’s in the 290s. He can be the big run stuffer than Kris Jenkins was and Sione Fouha isn’t and he can also play some end in a 3-4 and rush the passer more, which is another need of theirs. Rex Ryan will love his versatility.
Other options:
Justin Houston- The Jets might look past his drug test and see him as a really talented pass rusher who fits with what they want to do in terms of blitzing the quarterback.
Akeem Ayers- Ayers is a cleaner rush linebacker prospect and more versatile than Houston, but not as great of a pure pass rusher.
Brooks Reed- With all of the 3-4 ends that could go in the first round off the board, if this isn’t a nose tackle, it’s a rush linebacker. Reed is another option, cleaner than Houston, and a better pass rusher than Ayers.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers- CB Aaron Williams (Texas)
I know, the Steelers don’t take cornerbacks in the first round, but they’re not stupid. They know why they lost to the Packers. It’s the same reason they lost to the Patriots and the Saints. Teams that can spread them out can neutralize their blitz and pick on their corners. It’s a changing game and the Steelers have to adjust their draft strategy and it really seems like they will as this is becoming a popular choice with those in the know. They won’t take Jimmy Smith with his off the field issues and they won’t take Brandon Harris, who doesn’t fit the scheme well with his lack of size.
Other options:
Benjamin Ijalana- If they want to upgrade the offensive line, Ijalana isn’t a huge reach. They’re defensive minded when they draft, however.
Trade down: They could probably get Aaron Williams a few spots later so if a quarterback hungry teams wants to trade up, the Steelers could be willing to listen.
32. Green Bay Packers- RLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
Clay Matthews is a beast. What’s even more impressive is the fact that he’s doing what he’s doing with a legitimate #2 pass rushing linebacker opposite him to take the pressure off of him. Imagine their already deadly defense with another pass rushing linebacker. Ayers’ is a good #2 pass rusher and has the versatility than Dom Capers loves in a defensive player.
Other options:
Justin Houston- Houston is another rush linebacker option if they choose to look past his drug test.
Brooks Reed- Reed could also be in the mix as a rush linebacker.
Trade down: The Packers are no strangers to trading down and if they can’t differentiate much between the 3 linebacker, they could move down a few slots with a quarterback needy team and take a linebacker then.
This is probably my last update before the draft. If, for whatever reason, I have to, I will update tomorrow before the draft.
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