41. NT/DT Paul Soliai (Miami)- Resigned 2 years 18 million
Paul Soliai had a breakout year in a contract year in 2010 and was franchised by Miami in order to prove he was more than a one year wonder. He wasn’t bad in 2011, but he wasn’t as good and likely cost himself some money. However, there’s a demand for 3-4 nose tackles on the market and Soliai doesn’t turn 29 until December. He probably won’t be back in Miami as they switch to a 4-3, but someone will give him a good amount of money.
42. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)- resigned 2 years 15 million
He’s got the talent, but he’s never put it together. He had an excellent 2nd half in 2009 as he took the starting job and was off to a great start in 2010 before suffering a major injury. He started 2011 out well, but ultimately ended up with just 55 catches for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns, not bad, but short of expectations, especially with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball all over the field. He also dropped 12 passes, 5th most among receivers and most among tight ends. This was a real problem for him down the stretch. The upside is still there and he turns just 25 in March, but I’d be worried about giving him a huge long term deal on potential. Make him prove himself for a full season first.
43. OT Eric Winston (Houston)- Signed with Kansas City 4 years 22 million
The Texans made a surprising decision to cut Eric Winston. The release may signal that the cap pressed Texans are gearing up for a run at Peyton Manning or Mike Wallace, or perhaps to strength their offer to resign Mario Williams. Either way, Winston will command a pretty penny on the open market. In an offensive tackle class full of injury prone (Jared Gaither, Demetrius Bell), tried and failed starters (Jeff Backus, Levi Brown), and unproven former backups (Anthony Collins), Winston is a legitimate above average right tackle. Last season he allowed 7 sacks and 9 penalties, but only 20 total pressures, while being ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked run blocking offensive tackle. ProFootballFocus graded him as their 11th overall offensive tackle. There’s questions about his scheme versatility and ability to play on the left side, but I would be surprised if he didn’t exceed the 5.5 million he was owed by the Texans in 2012.
44. RB Michael Bush (Oakland)- Signed with Chicago 4 years 14 million with 7 million guaranteed
Michael Bush got a taste at being a lead back in 2011 with Darren McFadden hurt and he wants to continue to be one in 2012. However, it probably won’t be in Oakland as they’re not likely to trade Darren McFadden. Bush will get looks on the open market, but teams should remember he turns 28 in June (basically 33 in running back years) and that he averaged just 3.8 YPC last season as a starter, including less than 4 YPC in 6 of his last 7 games. Teams would be better off drafting someone like Trent Richardson, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, or Chris Polk in the first 3 rounds of the 2012 NFL Draft than committing significantly money to Michael Bush.
45. WR Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis)- Signed with Washington 5 years 42.5 million with 21.5 million guaranteed
Garcon doesn’t turn 26 until August and the former undrafted free agent just had a career year at the right time, catching 70 passes for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns. Even more impressive, he did that without Peyton Manning, the only Colt receiver to do so. He recently turned down a 5 year deal from the Colts because of Manning’s uncertain future. If Manning isn’t back, Garcon could very well not be either. On the other hand, the 35 million over 5 the Colts offered him might be the best he gets so he could be back.
46. OLB Erin Henderson (Minnesota)- Resigned 1 year 2 million
Erin Henderson came into the season as EJ Henderson’s former undrafted free agent younger brother and had to battle for the starting weakside linebacker job in Minnesota. Now, he’s one of the best young linebackers in the league. 26 in July, Henderson is coming off a season in which ProFootballFocus ranked him 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers. After 70 tackles in 2011, Henderson is due for a solid payday.
47. DE/RLB Robert Mathis (Indianapolis)- resigned for 4 years 36 million with 15 million guaranteed
Mathis has 83.5 career sacks in 9 seasons, 80 in 8 seasons if you take out his rookie season. However, there are 3 concerns. One, how would he fare without Dwight Freeney opposite him? Two, how would he fare outside of the Colts system. He’s undersized at 245, but has never played in a 3-4. Three, he just turned 31. He’ll get money somewhere, though he probably won’t stick around for the Colts’ rebuilding project and switch to a 3-4 defense, but he’s not without risks.
48. WR Mario Manningham (NY Giants)- Signed with San Francisco 2 years 7.4 million
Mario Manningham had 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2010 and was due for a better season in 2011, as Steve Smith left for Philadelphia. However, injuries and the emergence of Victor Cruz limited him to 39 catches for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns, though he did have a huge catch in the Super Bowl. He’s a talented player, but he probably won’t be back with the Giants. He’d be their #3 receiver and they already have an in house replacement in 2011 3rd round pick Jerel Jernigan so they won’t offer him as much money as someone looking at him as a #2 option. Someone will pay him as that though and they will probably end up pleased with the signing, though you never know with receivers switching teams. Manningham is still young too, turning just 26 in May.
49. S Michael Griffin (Tennessee)- Franchise tagged
A 1st round pick in 2007, Griffin was ProFootballFocus’ 13th ranked safety last season. In 5 years, Griffin, who just turned 27, has 389 tackles and 17 interceptions, while being at least average against the pass. He’s expected to be franchised, but if he isn’t, he could rejoin Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.
50. OT Jared Gaither (San Diego)- Resigned 4 years 24.6 million with 9 million guaranteed
Jared Gaither was on his way to being a franchise left tackle for 8-10 years in Baltimore, before back injuries bounced him to Oakland then Kansas City and eventually San Diego, where he actually played well down the stretch last season. He’s no sure thing going forward, but he’s a potential left tackle long term so the Chargers will push big time to resign him, especially after cutting Marcus McNeill. After all he’s been through, he’ll only be 26 in March.
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