Italics = restricted free agent
1. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)- Franchise tagged (exclusive)
Easily the #1 free agent on the market, Brees is one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in the league and at age 33, he should continue to be elite for 4-5 more years. Brees was Super Bowl MVP in February of 2010.
2. RB Arian Foster (Houston)- Resigned for 5 years 43.5 million with 20.75 million guaranteed
In 2 years as a starter, Foster has 4061 total yards despite missing 3 games with injury. Foster doesn’t turn 26 until August and he never had a serious injury. With just 659 carries in his career, Foster should theoretically remain one of the top backs in the league for 4-5 years. A true 3 down back, Foster could be franchised, but if he’s not, he could be signed away from the Texans by any team willing to surrender a 1st round pick, unless the Texans can match.
3. QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)- Signed with Denver for 5 years 96 million with 18 million guaranteed
He may be 36 and coming off 4 neck surgeries in the past 2 years, but assuming the future first ballot Hall-of-Famer still wants to play, he will command a lot of attention on the open market. Manning has been recovering well from his injury and will be ready for week 1. The question is just how close to his former self he will be and how durable he will be as he starts to take hits. Still, he’s worth a shot for a team needing a quick fix at quarterback. Washington, Miami, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, Arizona, and the New York Jets are all known to have varying levels of interest, with Washington, Miami, and Arizona being the most likely destinations for him.
4. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)- Franchise tagged
5885 total yards in the last 3 years, Rice is a true 3 down back who just turned 25. He’s such a big part of the Ravens offense and will be franchised in order to work out a long term deal. With 959 career carries, Rice figures to be one of the league’s best backs for 3-4 more years barring injury, something he’s never suffered (majorly) in his career.
5. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)- Franchise tagged
From 2008-2010, Forte had 4731 total yards. A great runner and pass protector, Forte was on his way to a career year in 2011 before suffering an injury which cost him the last 4.5 games of the season. This year, he had 1487 yards in 11.5 games and was his team’s leading receiver despite missing the time with injury. At 1014 career carries, Forte doesn’t turn 27 until December and had never suffered a major injury until this season. Way too big a part of his team’s offense, Forte will be franchised until a long term deal can be reached.
6. WR Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)- Tendered (1st round)
One of the fastest players in the league, Wallace has sub 4.3 speed and shows it on the field. Wallace has 3206 yards and 24 touchdowns in 3 seasons, including an amazing 18.7 yards per catch. One of the best deep threats in the league, Wallace doesn’t turn 26 until August and can be had for a 1st rounder this year because of the Steelers cap situation. The Steelers won’t be able to match any deal that pays Wallace more than 12 million in its first year.
7. 3-4 DE/DT/DE Calais Campbell (Arizona)- Franchise tagged
Campbell fell to the 2nd round because of character issues, but those haven’t surfaced in 4 years in Arizona. Over the last 3 seasons, the 6-8 300 pounder has 24 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end and should be able to play both 4-3 defensive tackle and left end. Only defensive player of the year candidate Justin Smith was rated higher than him at his position this season by ProFootballFocus. The best part might be that he’s not 26 until September. He’ll been franchised tagged and will remain with the Cardinals next season.
8. DE/RLB Mario Williams (Houston)- signed with Buffalo 6 years 100 million with 50 million guaranteed
The Texans got a lot of criticism for taking Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young #1 in 2006, but they got the last laugh. From 2007-2010, Williams had 43.5 sacks, 6th most in the league over that span (DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen, James Harrison, John Abraham, and Trent Cole). Williams did that while playing in the 280s throughout his career and being above average against the run. In 2011, he moved to the 3-4 (unheard of for someone his size), but flashed the necessary athleticism and had 5 sacks in 5 games before going down with a season ending injury. Only 27 years old, Williams has only had one major injury in his career and would be a welcome addition to any defense, regardless of scheme.
9. CB Lardarius Webb (Baltimore)- Tendered (1st round)
One of the most underrated players in the league, Webb doesn’t turn 27 until October. Because Baltimore franchised Ray Rice, Webb can be had for a 1st round pick this offseason (though Baltimore can match). Coming off an injury riddled 2010, Webb had an awesome 2011 season in which he picked off 5 passes and deflected another 11, while not allowing a single touchdown. Overall, Webb allowed just a 55.6 QB rating in 2011 when thrown at, 4th lowest of any cornerback who played more than 75% of his team’s snaps (Darrelle Revis, Chris Gamble, Ike Taylor).
10. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)- Franchise tagged
Bowe doesn’t turn 28 until September and has surpassed 995 yards in all 4 of the seasons in which he’s played all 16 games, despite not having consistent quarterback play throughout his career. Bowe is coming off a season in which he caught 81 passes for 1159 yards and 5 touchdowns with a mix of Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton at quarterback.
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