1. St. Louis Rams 1-15

Pick (will): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

The Rams cannot take Suh here. Albert Haynesworth and Richard Seymour last season were two of the top defensive tackles (though Seymour, at the time was playing 3-4 end in New England, which is essentially the same thing). Haynesworth went to Washington. Seymour went to Oakland. Neither team got better, in fact the Redskins got worse. Big dominant defensive tackles, which I believe Ndamukong Suh can be, don’t win this is league. They help, but they don’t win. Cortez Kennedy was one of the best defensive tackles of the 90’s, but never won a ring because the Seahawks never quite got their quarterback situation straightened out. If the Rams take Suh this year, there’s a good chance they win 6 games next year and get the 9^th-12^th pick, making it impossible to get a franchise quarterback. 19 of the last 20 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks had made a Pro Bowl before winning a ring and the only one who hadn’t, Eli Manning, made it the very next year. You simply can’t win in this league without a good franchise quarterback, They have a chance here to take one so they should jump at the chance. Clausen, contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, is actually a really good quarterback. For more on Clausen vs. Bradford, click here.

For more on why the Rams MUST draft quarterback, click here

2. Detroit Lions 2-14

Pick (will): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

The Lions have their franchise quarterback, but they need to protect him, otherwise his development could be stunted. Suh, or McCoy if they go that direction, is a dominant defensive player, but if the Lions’ franchise quarterback is lying on the ground and/or out with injuries, there isn’t much McCoy or Suh will be able to do to help this team win. Jeff Backus is not the guy you want protecting Stafford’s blindside while he’s developing. Russell Okung is. The Lions don’t want to risk passing on him and getting stuck with Roger Saffold and Jason Fox in the 2^nd.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

Pick (will): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

Pick (should): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

I am not going to mock trades in the should mock because I was have to negotiate with myself to get the deals done and I don’t want to develop a split personality. The Bucs have their quarterback and their left tackle so they can feel free to jump all over Suh, especially since defensive tackle is their biggest need after they were dead last in the league against the run last year. McCoy is a more natural fit for their defensive scheme, but Suh is a beast that simply can’t be passed on here. Contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, Suh is better than McCoy. That’s why he set the record for most Heisman votes as a defensive lineman.

For more on Todd McShay being an idiot, click here

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

Pick (will): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

Pick (should): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Normally, I wouldn’t take the 10^th player on my board over the 4^th players on my board just because the former had a much higher positional value. However, the Redskins need a left tackle here badly. The offensive line that Donovan McNabb will be playing behind this season gave up 43 sacks last year. Donovan McNabb isn’t magic. He won’t be able to have a good year behind that line and, given his history, he’ll probably get hurt. If the Redskins pass on a left tackle like Brown here for Berry, they won’t be able to take a left tackle until the 4^th round, when they pick next. Assuming they want to win know, Brown would be the best choice as he is the best available left tackle on my board.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Pick (will): Trade with Buffalo- QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

Pick (should): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

The Chiefs need to protect Matt Cassel’s blindside, but all left tackles remaining would be reaches. I have Bruce Campbell ranked at 17, but even with the need at left tackle it would be very hard for the Chiefs to justify passing on Berry, my 4^th ranked prospect, here, especially when they’ve been so bad on defense. Positional value is a good motto to go by up to a point and passing on an elite prospect like Berry for a 2^nd tier left tackle is where I draw that line, unless of course I needed pass protectors as badly as the Redskins do, which the Chiefs do not. Brandan Albert is a serviceable starter at left tackle for now.

6. Seattle Seahawks 5-11

Pick (will): DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Call me crazy, but I think, just because you pay him 10 million dollars and give up the equivalent of 2 3^rd rounders for him, doesn’t mean a 28 year old former 3^rdrounder who has never thrown a pass in the NFL is your quarterback of the future and solves your quarterback issue completely. If given the chance in real life, the Seahawks should take either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford, and in this mock, Bradford, my 6^th rated prospect, is available.

7. Cleveland Browns 5-11

Pick (will): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Thanks to teams going with positional value and need over best available, and rightly so, the Browns have the ability to grab my 5^th rated prospect, McCoy, here at 7. McCoy doesn’t fill an obvious need, but he’ll find a way on the field. He’s the most talented defensive lineman they have on their roster and can be an instant starter at 3-4 defensive end, even though that’s not his natural position.

8. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Pick (will): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

Pick (should): DE Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

This has to be the most poorly drafted team in the NFL. They have so many needs that I just want to fix that I just don’t know where to start. Hard to correct 10 years of bad drafting by a senile old man who spends 364 days a year dead and only drafts based on size/speed combinations. Quarterback and left tackle would be the obvious place to start, but I don’t want to reach for one, so I’ll go to the 3^rd thing on my Positional Value Chart and take Derrick Morgan, a future elite pass rushing defensive end who is also strong against the run.

9. Buffalo Bills 6-10

Pick (will): Trade with Chiefs- OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Tim Tebow (Florida)

I know what you’re thinking. Tim Tebow sucks. He’ll never be a good NFL quarterback. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^st rounder on him. I will agree with that 3^rd statement. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^strounder on him because no other teams really have him on their 1^st round radar and he’ll still be there for the Bills in the 2^nd. However, in this mock, he’s my 12^thrated player and won’t be available in the 2^nd for the Bills. I could explain in large detail why I think Tebow will work at the next level, but, in summary, it’s basically this. His two issues are his delivery and his lack of experience under center. He made huge strides on his delivery for his Pro Day at Florida. That was in the 2 months between then and The Senior Bowl. Imagine if he has a year sitting on the bench to work things out. We’ve seen guys with weird deliveries get better before (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Steve Young) and it helps Tebow that he is working with Romo’s former instructor. As for the lack of experience under center, the NFL is progressively growing into more and more of a shotgun style league. Not as much as college, but if you look at the numbers, the amount of snaps taken from shotgun are increasingly steadily every year. The Bills are considering going to a pure shotgun offense next year (making them one of 6 teams in the NFL to use a pure shotgun or a variation of the pure shotgun, New England, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, and Kansas City are the other 5). That would be a perfect fit for Tebow. Also, they do have Trent Edwards, who is not a franchise quarterback, but can be a decent one year stopgap before Tebow takes over in 2011.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

Pick (will): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Pick (should): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Tebow would have fit here as well, but for all the wrong reasons. His celebrity would help them sell tickets, but he would be counted on to start right away (bad) and the scheme doesn’t fit him at all. Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver wants Tebow and, if he’s lucky, he’ll get his way (probably in the 2^nd round though, not the 1^st), but in this mock he does not get to take Tebow, but instead takes his former teammate Joe Haden. Haden is not nearly as big of a celebrity in Jacksonville as Tebow, but Gainesville is only 75 miles away so bringing in a Gator to patch up one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year is not a bad idea. Haden also happens to be one of the best players available on my board.

11. Denver Broncos 8-8 (via CHI)

Pick (will): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

Pick (should): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

If Brandon Marshall leaves town, this pick becomes Dez Bryant, but since I am putting myself in Josh McDaniels shoes, I would go and sign Marshall to a big longterm deal before McDaniels realizes I stole his shoes. If Marshall stays, this pick has to be defense. Their defense, especially against the run, was good for the first 6 weeks of the season, but sucked the rest of the season and could get worse now that Mike Nolan has gone to Miami. And its no coincidence that the Broncos were 6-0 for the first 6 weeks of the season and 2-8 once their run defense started sucking. The way the Broncos are designed offensively, as a short throw, game manage, grind it out offense, they need to be able to stop the other team and win the field position battle. I would just take the best available 3-4 front 7 player. That is McClain who fills the void at middle linebacker left when they cut Andra Davis.

12. Miami Dolphins 7-9

Pick (will): RLB Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

Pick (should): RLB Brandon Graham (Michigan)

This pick and the situation of the Miami puts two of my strong drafting beliefs in contrast to one another. I believe that by far, quarterback, left tackle, and defense end/rush linebacker are the three most important positions, but I also believe that rush linebackers are incredibly risky to take in the first round. For more information on that click here. That being said, I do have some confidence in Graham because, though he has never played rush linebacker, he has played linebacker before he was converted to an end, and I also love his motor and work ethic and, as far as I’m concerned, that has value anywhere on the field.

13. San Francisco 49ers 8-8

Pick (will): S Taylor Mays (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

I don’t love Campbell as a prospect. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued him in the past, but at his best, he is one of the best left tackles in this draft class. His upside is enormous if he can achieve it. He would allow the Niners to move Joe Staley to his natural position at right tackle and give the Niners two upgrades in one.

14. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via DEN)

Pick (will): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

The Seahawks make a reach here for a left tackle, but I think it’s a necessary reach. Behind a good offensive line, Matt Hasselbeck can actually make this team competitive in the sure to be weak NFC West in 2010. Plus, Bulaga would be able to be their blindside protector for the next 8-10 years or so which is great for young Sam Bradford when he steps in at the beginning of the 2011 season.

15. New York Giants 8-8

Pick (will): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

Pick (should): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

A great pick in both mocks. Weatherspoon can play middle in a 4-3 as well as 4-3 outside linebacker and 3-4 middle linebacker. He’s the best available prospect at this juncture and fills a need for the Giants after they released Antonio Pierce.

16. Tennessee Titans 8-8

Pick (will): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Pick (should): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Dan Williams is a perfect fit here and likely would go here in reality if he is available. As weird as it may seem, he’s a do everything nose tackle. He’s 325 pounds, but has experience playing in a system similar to the one the Titans run now and he’s also an in-state college kid. He is mobile enough to play in Tennessee’s system and, though he’s not the pass rusher Haynesworth was, he can be the big mobile body that Haynesworth was in the middle of their defense a couple of years ago and free things up for the guys on the outside. He’d be a great compliment to their roster full of sub 300 pound defensive tackles.

 17. San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (via CAR)

Pick (will): OT Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

Pick (should): S Earl Thomas (Texas)

The Niners would like to address the cornerback position, their biggest need, in the first, but they shouldn’t reach for a corner like Kyle Wilson as long as they have other needs to address, especially when you consider the strength of this cornerback class in the 2^nd and 3^rd round range. Earl Thomas allows Dashon Goldston to move to strong safety when he would be a better fit and gives them two upgrades in one.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

Pick (will):  S Earl Thomas (Texas)

Pick (should): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Nose tackle isn’t their biggest need with Casey Hampton under contract for 3 more years, but Hampton is getting old and that contract pays him 21 million dollars over 3 years so I’m guessing they would love to be able to cut him midway and safe money. Cody allows them to do that by giving them a nose tackle, something that is extremely rare.

19. Pick (will): DE Brandon Graham (Michigan)

Pick (should): WR Damian Williams (USC)

Williams is my 9^th rated player, but falls out of lack of need for wide receivers. Wideout is not a huge need for the Falcons, but Michael Jenkins could be upgraded. Matt Ryan, throwing to Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Williams, who I compare to Greg Jennings, is pretty good.

20. Houston Texans 9-7

Pick (will): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

Pick (will): RB Jahvid Best (California)

Given how bad the Texans were running the ball last year, taking a talented running back like Best who fits their scheme is a smart idea. Best might not be an every down back, but they have plenty of other running backs to spell him in the backfield, just no true #1 running backs unless Steve Slaton can bounce back.

21. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pick (will): DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)

Pick (should): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

I wouldn’t give up on Chase Coffman, a 2009 3^rd round pick who didn’t play a snap last year because of injuries, just yet. Unless of course Jermaine Gresham, my top tight end, fell to me at 21. Gresham had an injury problem last year, but he appears to have put it behind him. He’s one of the best pure pass catching tight end prospects since Kellen Winslow and he’d finally give the Bengals that over the middle target they are lacking.

22. New England Patriots 10-6

Pick (will): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) 

Randy Moss is getting up there in years and only has one year left on his deal. He didn’t give a lot of effort last year either and the Pats have won without him. I don’t think he’ll be in town for anymore than a year so they’ll want to look for a future replacement. Bryant would fit the Patriots offensive scheme well because he played in one just like it in college. I think if Bryant falls to the Pats in real life, they’ll also pull the trigger.

23. Green Bay Packers 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jason Pierre Paul (South Florida)

Pick (should): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

A left tackle is majorly needed, but I wouldn’t reach for a guy like Jason Fox or Trent Williams here. They can just go with best available which they probably will do in real life anyway because of how much they like going with best available. Spiller can help this team in the return game, which they struggle in, and give them a 3^rd round down back, and a homerun hitter out of the backfield, all of which are things they do not have at the moment. He’s the best available player who they could use.

24. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

Pick (will): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

Pick (should): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

This is a great pick is both reality and in my own little world. Wilson would fill the need left by Sheldon Brown, who was traded to the Browns, and he can move over to the #1 cornerback spot when they decide Asante Samuel is too old and costs too much, which will probably be next season.

25. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Pick (will): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

The Ravens have very few needs after all of their upgrades at receiver, including their trade for Anquan Boldin and resigning Derrick Mason. They will probably just look past available and Odrick certainly is that. Trevor Pryce turns 35 soon and the Ravens would be wise to take this opportunity to do what the Steelers did last year and had some youth to their again defensive line.

26. Arizona Cardinals 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

Pick (should): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

The Cardinals have the personnel to switch to a 3-4 full time next season, but if they do, they’ll need to get more pressure from their rush linebackers. They added Joey Porter, but I don’t see how much the 33 year old Porter helps their group of old rush linebackers for the future. Hughes can be the #1 rush linebacker of the future opposite Cody Brown, a 2009 2^nd round pick, assuming he pans out.

27. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

Pick (will): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Pick (should): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Youth and depth for the offensive line, that is the Cowboys’ biggest need this offseason. They were destroyed in their playoff loss to the Vikings up front because their old line had worn down and injuries struck and their backups, who aren’t very good, had to step in. Iupati is very raw, but has huge upside. He won’t be a week one starter, but could step in and be an upgrade for Kyle Kosier sometime next year.

28. San Diego Chargers 13-3

Pick (will): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Brian Price (UCLA)

They never replaced Igor Olshansky after he left as a free agent last year. I have some qualms about Price’s ability to play 3-4 defensive end, but the switch from 4-3 under tackle to 3-4 defensive end is nowhere near as big as the switch from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 rush linebacker. I also have no qualms about Price’s talent and, though I would have rather than Odrick, I am happy with Price.

29. New York Jets 9-7

Pick (will): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

Pick (should): RLB Everson Griffen (USC)

Vernon Gholston is on a short leash and the only reason he is still on the team is because the Jets would look really stupid to have to release the #6 overall pick 2 years after drafting him. Gholston could bounce back, but he has 0 sacks in 2 years, so I’m not counting on it. Just in case he doesn’t, they should add Griffen, a more natural fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker than Gholston was and the best player available. The Jets aren’t going to be an elite team unless they can create more pressure on the quarterback.

30. Minnesota Vikings 12-4

Pick (will): DT Brian Price (UCLA)

Pick (should): CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Antoine Winfield is getting up there in age and has had recent injury issues, Cedric Griffen is average at best and recently tore his ACL, and Asher Allen is a nickel at best and a kick returner. The Vikings, given the NFL is becoming more and more a pass first league every year, should add one more starting caliber corner to the mix. Ghee is that.

31. Indianapolis Colts 14-2

Pick (will): G Maurkice Pouncey (Florida)

Pick (should): OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Charlie Johnson did a decent job this year at left tackle, but I think even I could do a decent job at left tackle for the Colts because Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly, like clockwork, that it’s almost impossible to sack him. The Colts need to bring in an upgrade at left tackle and Williams has the upside to be amazing in Indianapolis with Manning making him look a little better than he is. Johnson is also a free agent in 2011.

32. New Orleans Saints 13-3

Pick (will): DE Everson Griffen (USC)

Pick (should): OLB Eric Norwood (South Carolina)

The Saints can use Norwood in the way the Redskins used Brian Orakpo, a strong side linebacker on running downs, because he’s too small to play the trenches on running downs, and a defensive end on passing downs, because he’s not good enough in coverage. This way, they could make the most out of his size (he’s big for a linebacker, but small for an end) and his pass rushing ability, without having to use him in places where he does not fit.