1. Calvin Johnson (Detroit)
Discounting 2009 when he battled some injuries, Calvin Johnson has a combined 155 catches for 2451 yards and 24 touchdowns in 31 games from 2008-2010. In that span, his quarterbacks have been Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Jon Kitna, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton, and a combined 3 games (1 complete game) of Matt Stafford.
Stafford has by far the best arm of the bunch and the best arm to utilize Calvin Johnson’s talents as a freakishly athletic deep threat. I mean if you’re creating a receiver on Madden and you max out his height and weight and set everything to 99, you’ve pretty much just created Calvin Johnson. If Stafford stays healthy, I think this is the year he takes his rightful place atop the fantasy wide receiver totem pole.
Projection: 88 catches, 1350 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns (219 pts, 307 PPR)
2. Andre Johnson (Houston)
If you take his stats from 13 games last year and stretch them across 16 games, you get 106 catches for 1497 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those stats are right in line with what he did in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, he had 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 touchdowns and in 2009 he had 101 yards for 1569 yards and 9 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in those numbers this year because the Texans actually have a defense and a running game so they don’t need to air it out as much. However, he’s still the clear #2 wide receiver this year and the top receiver in PPR.
Projection: 103 catches, 1470 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (201 pts, 304 PPR)
3. Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)
In 12 games with Ben Roethlisberger in 2010, he had 51 catches for 1046 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Across 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1395 yards and 11 touchdowns. In his final 8 games, as Hines Ward started to decline, he had 38 catches for 750 yards and 5 touchdowns. Across 16 games, that’s 76 catches for 1500 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger has only played 16 games once in his career, so I think it’ll be close to that first set of number than the 2nd, but a YPC of 20 is not unrealistic for someone with his type of speed. He’s also in his 3rd year, a big year for receivers.
Projection: 70 catches, 1400 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 270 PPR)
4. Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)
8/17/11: Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks.
In his 2nd season in the league, Nicks had 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s now going into his magical 3rd season, that 3rd season where young receivers always seem to break out. Steve Smith is hurt so Nicks will get more targets. He has a great rapport with Eli Manning, who never gets hurt. He’s a pretty safe WR1.
Projection: 88 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns (198 pts, 286 PPR)
5. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)
In 3 years with Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald had 100, 96, and 97 catches. His total yards were a little lower in his final year with Warner, 2009, with 1092 yards, but he had 1409 yards in 2007 and 1431 yards in 2008. He also combined for 35 touchdowns in 3 years with Warner. Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner, but two things, Fitz has been working out with Kolb all offseason so they have good chemistry. Fitz also no longer has to contend with Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston for yards and receptions like he did when Warner was in town. Besides, Fitz somehow managed 90 catches for 1137 yards and 6 touchdowns last year with a pile of steaming crap at quarterback.
Projection: 94 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (196 pts, 290 PPR)
6. Greg Jennings (Green Bay)
Greg Jennings had 76 catches for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. That’s pretty aligned with what he had been doing in previous years. I see no reason why he can’t put up similar if not better stats this year. Aaron Rodgers is still throwing to him and Donald Driver is fading opposite him. Jennings was much better in the 2nd half last year than he was in the first.
Projection: 80 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (196 pts, 276 PPR)
7. Miles Austin (Dallas)
9/3/11: Austin has been dealing with a hamstring problem all preseason. These types of things tend to linger so I’d knocking his production down just a little, even though I don’t think he’ll miss any games.
In his last 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. Romo is back and should be able to play a full 16 game set this year. He’s always been healthy except that one freak hit last year.
Now, obviously, I’m not going to predict those stats for Austin for several reasons. One, it’s just unrealistic. No one does that. Two, in those 17 games, he either didn’t have Dez Bryant opposite him or the Dez Bryant he had opposite him was still learning the playbook. Three, Jason Garrett is now the head coach and he seems to like Dez Bryant a lot.
Still, I think there’s room for both Austin and Bryant to have great fantasy seasons, with Austin having the greater season. I loved him last year in fantasy leagues and he was having a great season (33 catches for 486 yards and 2 touchdowns in 5 games) until Romo got hurt. Now, I think he’s very undervalued.
Projection: 83 catches, 1330 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (181 pts, 264 PPR)
8. Brandon Lloyd (Denver)
Brandon Lloyd burst onto the scene with 77 catches for 1448 yards and 11 yards last year. A lot of people credit that to Josh McDaniels and think Lloyd will bust now that McDaniels is gone. However, in 4 games without McDaniels last year he had 17 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, good for 68 catches for 1180 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. And that was with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball and he said it himself that prefers Kyle Orton throwing to him.
He’ll have Orton this year, at least to start. I know John Fox is a more conservative head coach than anyone they had last year, but Steve Smith never had a problem putting up big fantasy numbers (when healthy) with Fox in Carolina.
Projection: 70 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (180 pts, 250 PPR)
9. Roddy White (Atlanta)
Roddy White has been the picture of consistency for the past 4 seasons catching at least 80 passes for at least 1150 yards and at least 6 touchdowns, with double digit touchdowns in each of the past 2 seasons. Last year was his best year as he caught 115 passes for 1389 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, with the addition of Julio Jones this offseason, we should see that production drop, especially in terms of touchdowns, this season.
Projection: 105 catches, 1280 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (176 pts, 281 PPR)
10. Mario Manningham (NY Giants)
Mario Manningham had his best season of his career last year with 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns (and what do you know, it was his 3rd season). I think that’s the floor for this year for him as Steve Smith will likely start the season on the bench with an injury, allowing Manningham to take Smith’s spot in the lineup. He should be able to surpass the 1000 yard mark alongside Hakeem Nicks, with the never injured Eli Manning throwing to them.
Projection: 72 catches, 1120 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (172 pts, 244 PPR)
11. Steve Johnson (Buffalo)
In 13 games with Ryan “I’m 100 times better than Trent Edwards, but I’m still not very good” Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson had 71 catches for 930 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 87 catches for 1140 yards and 12 touchdowns. Fitz really likes throwing to him and they didn’t add anyone else opposite him this offseason
I think he could reproduce or exceed those stats in 2011, especially given that the Bills are one of the few teams that return the same starting quarterback, head coach, and coordinators as 2010. That will be a big advantage, especially for a team that frequently has changes at all 4 of those positions. The only statistic that will be lower in 2011 will be his touchdowns. The Bills had a weird 24 passing touchdowns to 6 rushing touchdowns in 2010. That won’t be the case in 2011. Those numbers should look more normal this year.
Projection: 89 catches, 1170 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (171 pts, 260 PPR)
12. Kenny Britt (Tennessee)
9/3/11: Like Austin, Britt is dealing with a bit of a hammy problem, something that cost him 4 games last season. I don’t think it’ll cost him any games this season, but it could hurt his production a little.
8/28/11: Kenny Britt will not be suspended, meaning, barring injury, he’ll play 16 games this season. He had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns last season in 12 games. Over 16 games, that’s 56 catches for 1033 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s good for 175 fantasy points, which would have made him the 7th ranked fantasy receiver last season. Now keep in mind, he has a better quarterback situation this season with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker rather than Kerry Collins and Vince Young and he’s in his 3rd season, a breakout year for young wide receivers. We have a legitimate top 10 wide receiver with Britt this season.
Britt had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games last year, but before you extrapolate that over 16 games, realize he’ll probably only play 12 this year anyway as it’s widely assumed that some sort of suspension is coming for him after he got arrested seemingly weekly this offseason. That suspension could be as long as 4 games. He’s also got some hamstring problems still. He’s in his 3rd year and he’s got a better quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck now, but he’s definitely a risky WR2. I’d feel safer with him as a WR3 or a flex.
Projection: 56 catches, 1020 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (168 pts, 224 PPR)
13. Vincent Jackson (San Diego)
2010 was basically a lost year for Vincent Jackson as a suspension, a holdout, injuries, and “injuries” limited his time on the field. After being franchised tagged this past offseason, Jackson now seems committed to reproving himself and getting a big deal in free agency this offseason. Look for him to find his 2009 form (68 catches for 1167 yards and 9 touchdowns) once more.
Projection: 62 catches, 1130 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (161 pts, 223 PPR)
14. Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)
In 11 games last season with Mark Sanchez, Holmes had 51 catches for 729 yards and 5 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 74 catches for 1060 yards and 7 touchdowns. Those numbers should only get higher this year with Braylon Edwards gone (replaced by the inferior Plaxico Burress) and in his 2nd season with a new team. Besides, there’s precedent for Holmes having a huge season before. In his last year in Pittsburgh, he caught 79 passes for 1248 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Projection: 78 catches, 1120 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (160 pts, 238 PPR)
15. Percy Harvin (Minnesota)
With Sidney Rice either out of the lineup or hampered by injury for most of the season, Percy Harvin had 71 catches for 868 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Rice is in Seattle now and Michael Jenkins will lineup across from him instead. He’s hardly a threat. Harvin is the guy in Minnesota and he has an upgrade at quarterback with Donovan McNabb and/or Christian Ponder. He also is a relatively lock to give you another 100 yards and maybe even a score on the ground. On top of that, if you needed any more reason to love him as a WR2, he’s in his 3rd year in the league.
Projection: 76 catches, 980 receiving yards, 110 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns (157 pts, 233 PPR)
16. Austin Collie (Indianapolis)
8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Austin Collie’s fantasy value.
8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.
Austin Collie suffered several nasty concussions last year. I’m surprised his head is still attached. However, when he was in the lineup last year, he played very well and the concussions didn’t scare him away from playing 100%. He still caught 8 passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville. In fact, in 8 full games last year, he had 57 catches for 650 yards and 8 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 114 catches for 1300 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.
Obviously those numbers are a little bit crazy, but not too crazy. Peyton Manning is his quarterback and he always makes receivers look good. He posted the best catch rate in the league last year, catching 82.9% of his targets. Pierre Garcon was clearly a less targeted receiver when both Garcon and Collie were available and Wayne turns 33 this season and could be heading for a decline. That leaves Collie in perfect position to step up and break out (don’t forget he’s in his magical 3rd year as well).
Projection: 90 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (154 pts, 244 PPR)
17. Chad Ochocinco (New England)
9/3/11: Reports about Ochocinco haven’t sounded good. He hasn’t been there very long so it’s possible he’s just taking a while to pick up the offense. I like his fantasy value a lot more in the 2nd half of the season than the first because I feel he could struggle a little to start the season.
8/20/11: Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times in 19 throws in his 2nd preseason game, his first start. Ochocinco only caught 2, though he did score. However, it’s very nice to see that the Patriots see Ochocinco as a big part of their offense. They could have the best offense in the league again which means a lot of yards and touchdowns for Ochocinco.
I honestly don’t know what to expect from Ochocinco in New England this year. He could go Randy Moss on us (single season record for touchdown). He could go Torry Holt on us (cut in training camp). My best guess is that he at least improves on the 67 catches for 831 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last year in Cincinnati with Carson Palmer. We’ll see how he’s used in the preseason.
Projection: 66 catches, 970 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (151 pts, 217 PPR)
18. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)
8/26/11: The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Jackson’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%.
8/17/11: Jackson also would benefit from Maclin being out of the lineup. He still wouldn’t be a goal line threat or anything, but Cooper opposite him is significantly inferior so Vick would be looking his way much more often.
I’m not too worried about his holdout. The new CBA has made holdouts completely impractical because they moved the date in which you no longer accrue a year towards free agency up a lot. However, I am worried about the fact that he only caught 47 balls last year. Jeremy Maclin is going to have a good year opposite him and I think it’s unreasonable to expect even him to average 22.5 yards per catch again so if he wants to get 1000+ yards again, he’ll need to catch 62 balls like he did in 2009.
With Maclin presumably improving even more in his 3rd year, that may be very tough for him. He’s also not a big touchdown guy. The extra 100 or so yards he adds on the ground is always a welcome addition, however.
Projection: 50 catches, 980 receiving yards, 100 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns (150 pts, 200 PPR)
19. Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)
Mike Williams burst onto the scene with 65 catches for 964 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Many think he will take the next step forward in 2011. I am not one of those people. Tampa Bay’s schedule is much harder this year and receivers don’t traditionally take big leaps forward until their 3rd year (unless they had particularly bad rookie years). Statistically, I’m projecting a step back for Mike Tampa this year.
Projection: 61 catches, 890 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (149 pts, 210 PPR)
20. Marques Colston (New Orleans)
8/17/11: Colston’s surgically repaired knee is not 100%. It’s still not a huge concern, but it’s a little bit more concerning that it was a couple weeks ago.
Colston has had 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season in which he’s been healthy. I don’t see why anything should change, though he did have yet another knee procedure done this offseason. He hasn’t missed any major time since 2008 with injury, but there’s always a worry with him. However, if you draft smart, you should find a sleeper that becomes a WR2 to replace Colston in your lineup should anything happen to him so I’d still feel fine taking him in the 5th round. He’s a mid to low end WR2.
Projection: 70 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (148 pts, 218 PPR)
21. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)
8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Reggie Wayne’s fantasy value.
8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.
Wayne has been the picture of consistency for a long time, putting up 80+ catches in every year since 2005 and 1000+ yards in every year since 2004. However, he turns 33 this season so a decline could be coming. With Austin Collie looking set to breakout and Pierre Garcon still in the mix, I find it very hard to believe that Wayne matches last year’s stats (111 catches for 1355 yards and 6 touchdowns). He might match the touchdown total (remember he did have 10 in 2009) because Indy’s offense is so explosive and he’ll still be a great fantasy receiver, but it’s time to move him down from WR1 status.
Projection: 80 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (142 pts, 222 PPR)
22. Dez Bryant (Dallas)
9/3/11: Miles Austin’s loss is Dez Bryant’s gain. The 2nd year receiver has looked very good in the preseason without Miles Austin. He’s a low end WR2 or high end WR3 with upside.
In 5 games with Tony Romo last year, Bryant had just 18 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown, good for 58 catches for 675 yards and 3 touchdowns over a 16 game season. However, some things work in his favor. He’s in his 2nd year, definitely a plus, as rookie receivers tend to struggle. Also, head coach new Jason Garrett really seems to like him and Roy Williams is gone. I think he’s still the clear #2 in Dallas’ explosive offense, but he’s definitely a WR3 with major, major upside.
Projection: 75 catches, 930 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (141 pts, 216 PPR)
23. Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)
8/17/11: Maclin should be getting back to practice soon and he’s not dying, which is obviously a good thing. However, he could still miss the first week of the season. He’s been really sick this offseason and predictably is not in great shape. It could take him a few weeks to be his old self.
Yes, Jeremy Maclin over DeSean Jackson. I like Maclin more because he catches more balls, which means he’s less reliant on big plays to put up fantasy points, which means he’s more consistent. He’s also a better scoring threat with 10 touchdowns to Jackson’s 6 in 2010. He’s also in his 3rd year and not a malcontent contract wise. Maclin has 70 catches for 962 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Look for those to improve in 2011.
Projection: 64 catches, 890 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (137 pts, 201 PPR)
24. Mike Sims Walker (St. Louis)
Mike Sims Walker had 43 catches for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2009. He moves from Jacksonville to St. Louis, a more pass heavy team with a better quarterback. We saw what Josh McDaniels did with Brandon Lloyd in Denver with an inferior quarterback in Kyle Orton. I’m not saying MSW quite has that upside, but he could certainly go over a thousand yards and I don’t think his downside is all that low. I mean if Josh McDaniels can get 65 catches for 875 yards out of Kyle Orton to Jabar Gaffney last year, unless MSW gets hurt, he still has fantasy value as the #2 receiver in St. Louis’ offense.
Projection: 65 catches, 920 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (134 pts, 199 PPR)
25. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)
I’m going to be upfront with it. I hate Dwayne Bowe in fantasy this year. He’s got so much working against him. The Chiefs schedule is much harder. They played 4 games against teams with better than .500 records last year (including the playoffs). Bowe had 4 catches for 49 yards and no touchdowns in those 4 games. This year they play 8 such teams.
Bowe had 15 touchdowns last year. He had 16 in his first 3 years. Can you say outlier? Also, he now has to contend with Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston for targets. Last year, Kansas City had no other wide receivers. At all. Chris Chambers was their 2nd best wideout and he’s terrible. I think this projection might even be a bit high for him.
Projection: 59 catches, 900 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (132 pts, 191 PPR)
26. Santana Moss (Washington)
Poor Santana Moss. He’s literally had nothing but crap at quarterback in his career and now he has John Beck after a year of at least mediocre from Donovan McNabb. He caught 93 passes for 1115 yards and 6 touchdowns last year and even produced with Rex Grossman at quarterback with 22 catches for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in two Grossman starts. His history with bad quarterbacks is bad news for him, but good news for fantasy football players. If he’s produced before with bad quarterbacks, he can presumably do it again, though his age, 32, is a bit of a red flag.
Prediction: 75 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (130 pts, 205 PPR)
27. Lance Moore (New Orleans)
8/17/11: All 3 of New Orleans’ top receivers have injury problems. Colston’s knee is still not 100%. Robert Meachem battled leg injuries all last season and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore missed most of 2009 with injuries, but is as close to 100% as you can be right now. In 2008, when healthy, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, when he also was healthy, he caught 66 passes for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns. Expect production similar to those numbers this year, especially with injury questions surrounding Colston and Meachem.
Projection: 70 catches, 800 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (128 pts, 198 PPR)
28. Wes Welker (New England)
Wes Welker had 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns last year despite the fact that on week 1 he was just 8 months removed from tearing two knee ligaments. What torn ligaments? Many expect him to bounce back to 2007 form (112 catches for 1175 yards and 8 touchdowns) or 2008 form (111 catches for 1165 yards and 4 touchdowns with Matt Cassel) or even 2009 form (123 catches for 1348 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 13 games). I don’t expect him to go that far back. He didn’t have to contend with Danny Woodhead or Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez in any of those 3 seasons. Now he does.
Projection: 95 catches, 970 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (127 pts, 222 PPR)
29. Nate Burleson (Detroit)
8/28/11: Matt Stafford is going to be going deep a lot more than Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last season. Burleson caught 12 catches for 179 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 games with Stafford last season, good for 64 catches for 955 yards and 5 touchdowns. Burleson has looked good this preseason with and without Johnson in the lineup. With the way Stafford is playing, there’s fantasy value with both Burleson and Johnson.
Projection: 65 catches, 850 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (127 pts, 192 PPR)
30. Braylon Edwards (San Francisco)
The 49ers signing of Braylon Edwards was genius. Edwards will be as motivated as ever because the deal has financial incentives of 2.5 million dollars for making the Pro-Bowl, because it’s a one year deal which means he’s still in a contract year, and because he didn’t get the deal he wanted, which motivates him to prove doubters wrong. The upside with him is what he did in 2007, 80 catches for 1289 yards and 6 touchdowns plus turning Derek Anderson into a Pro-Bowler (which, for the record, I believe deserves at least 50, if not 100 fantasy points).
He’s the #1 guy in San Francisco. Michael Crabtree is missing his 3rd straight preseason with an injury and didn’t work out with the team during the offseason. However, I don’t know Edwards does what he did in 2007. He hasn’t shown anything like that since so I think the most we can expect from him in fantasy are WR3 numbers much like last year (53 catches for 904 yards and 7 touchdowns) with a lot of upside that he probably won’t reach.
Projection: 60 catches, 900 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (126 pts, 186 PPR)
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