Wide receiver

Arizona

6-3 224

Draft board overall prospect rank: #65

Draft board overall wide receiver rank: #11

Overall rating: 73 (3rd round)

40 time: 4.68

Games watched: Stanford/Arizona, UCLA/Arizona

Positives

·         Great size (6-3 224)

·         Physical with cornerbacks

·         Huge hands (10 ½)

·         Makes a ton of tough catches

·         Often bailed out Nick Foles and made him look better than he was

·         Incredibly productive (2010: 82 catches for 1223 yards and 11 touchdowns, 2011: 75 catches for 956 yards and 11 touchdowns)

·         3 year starter

·         Phenomenal body control

·         Great leaping ability (38 inches)

·         Great red zone threat

·         Catches the ball at it’s highest point

·         Good short route runner

·         Breaks tackles

·         Willing and able blocker

·         Good inside and outside possession receiver

Negatives

·         Poor 40 time (4.68)

·         Not explosive

·         History of medical problems

·         Rumored “psychological issues”

·         Stiff out of his breaks

·         Not a deep threat

·         Doesn’t get a lot of separation

·         Not a great athlete

NFL Comparison: Kevin Walter

Juron Criner reminds me of Kevin Walter. Walter is not a great athlete, but his size, hands, and body control have allowed him to be a solid possession receiver for the Texans. Criner is a similar player who can be a solid possession receiver both inside in the slot and end zone. He’s also incredibly tough to cover in the end zone one on one. He has an excellent combination of size, leaping ability, timing, body control, and hands. He frequently bailed Nick Foles out with highlight reel catches against tough coverage, especially inside the red zone.

Criner has little to no speed to burn and had an awful 40 time of 4.68 that killed some momentum coming out of the Senior Bowl, where he was very good. He won’t be a #1 receiver at the next level, but he can be a solid #2 or #3 receiver. He’ll probably be drafted in the 3^rd round with an outside shot at the 2^nd round, where he was projected prior to The Combine.

Another comparison is Eric Decker, who I compared to Kevin Walter when Decker came out 2 years ago. Decker was a 3^rd round pick in 2010 and has been a solid player in the 2 years since. Decker had some injury problems coming out of Minnesota. Criner has some past injury problems, in addition to some rumored “psychological issues.” That’s something that NFL teams will know more about than me.

Signing Juqua Parker to a deal worth up to 3 million over a year through incentives isn’t a bad idea. Parker is a solid nickel rusher who had 8 sacks in 2009. However, it appears the Browns will use a rotation of Parker and Frostee Rucker, who they signed yesterday, at defensive end, rather than finding an actual long term, every down upgrade for Jayme Mitchell through the draft. Their pass rush is going to struggle again until they do that. Parker is 34 in May.

Grade: C

WR Donald Driver DOWN

Driver had two knee surgeries in the offseason and is still not practicing. This might not be a big deal if he was 25, but he’s 35. Driver already started to drop off in production late last season and now he’s pretty badly hurt, not practicing, and won’t heal like he used to. I can see him being pretty ineffective this year. He still is, presumably, a starter in Green Bay’s high powered offense, which gives him some fantasy value, but chances are, he’ll be overdrafted.

WR James Jones UP

It’s a stretch, but if Driver misses any time with injury, or gets benched because of ineffectiveness, Jones would be the guy to step into the lineup, which obviously gives him fantasy value, as Green Bay’s offense in one of the best in the league.

RB Cedric Benson DOWN

Cedric Benson is officially a true Bengal. Benson was arrested on charges of assault in Texas. As someone who thought he had his life back on track, this was a major facepalm moment for me. However, this is not a good sign for his fantasy prospects. Roger Goddell does not look kindly on repeat offenders so a suspension could very well be looming and, if history is any indication, it’ll be about 4 games. If you draft this guy in the first or second round and he gets suspended for 4 games, that’s about 1/3 of your fantasy regular season that you’ll be missing him for. That’s a good way to lose your league. Wait for someone else to snatch him early until this situation gets sorted out.

RB Bernard Scott UP

If Benson gets suspended, Scott looks like the go to back. He’s very talented and can put up numbers for you. Scott was already a fantasy sleeper of mine because of Benson’s history of injuries and arrestes, but now he becomes even more of a fantasy sleeper as Benson’s history rears it’s head again.

WR Torry Holt DOWN

Brandon Tate is getting the first team looks in New England. This is nothing official, but if Holt doesn’t win a starting job, he’s fantasy worthless. I might still draft him in the really late rounds because he has some upside, but I’m not too excited about him.

WR Brandon Tate UP

Tate looks to have the advantage to be the starter in New England, which gives him a ton of fantasy value, especially if Welker stays hurt. He’s worth a late round flier.

WR Steve Smith DOWN

Smith broke his left arm recently. He is expected to return for the regular season, but he’ll miss valuable training time with two quarterbacks, Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who he doesn’t have an extensive history with. He also may not be 100% come regular season. He may be out of shape. His recovery may also run long and he could miss a game or two. I’m knocking him down just a bit.

WR Brandon LaFell UP

If anyone is going to benefit from Smith’s injury, it’s LaFell. LaFell hasn’t been seeing a lot of time with the first time in practice, but that’s because Carolina coach John Fox always gives veterans the first shot at winning a starting job and LaFell is a 3^rd round pick rookie. 4^th year receiver Dwayne Jarrett has been getting all the first team reps in camp opposite Smith, but with Smith out, Fox really has no choice but to give LaFell more work. If he impresses with the first team, he could take the job from Jarrett. There’s no question in my mind that LaFell is more talented than Jarrett, even as a rookie. Jarrett has been horrible in his first 3 years since being drafted in the 2^nd out of USC. He has, on many occasions, looked completely lost on the football field. If LaFell takes the starting job from him, he could have some fantasy value, especially if Smith doesn’t come back 100% opposite him. I’m not ready to make him a sleeper yet, but keep your eye on him.

WR Vincent Jackson DOWN

I had Jackson lower than normal already due to the possibility that he might get suspended. Now he actually has been suspended, for 3 games. Add in his bye week, and he’ll be missing 4 weeks out of your 13 or 14 week regular season. If you spend a 3^rd round pick on this guy, you’re going to be missing the guy who was supposed to be your 3^rd best player for about 30% of your regular season. That’s a good way to lose your league. Also, his contract negotiations are at a standstill with the team and he has yet to sign his tender. Not only is not practicing not good (triple negative?) for a player’s fantasy prospects, there’s a possibility he gets traded. Chances are, if he gets traded, it’s going to be to a team whose passing game and quarterback are worse than the Chargers, meaning a team other than New Orleans, Indianapolis, Dallas, and New England. There are a lot of red flags with him.

WR Malcom Floyd UP

I had him as a sleeper based on the potential that Jackson would get suspended. Now Floyd will be the Chargers #1 receiver for at least 3 weeks next year. This guy already had 34 catches for 525 yards in his 8 starts last year as their #2 receiver, now he has at least 3 weeks of being the #1 guy in that offense and 3 weeks of no Vincent Jackson to take away red zone looks. This guy is a major sleeper and could be a top 15 fantasy wide receiver if Jackson gets traded.

WR Legedu Naanee UP

I’ll tell you the truth. I don’t know much about this guy. But as long as he’s a starter in San Diego’s receiving corps for at least 3 weeks, he has some fantasy value, potentially more if he’s good. I won’t call him a true fantasy sleeper yet, but in deep leagues, you may want to keep your eye on him throughout the early parts of the season.

RB Cedric Benson UP

Benson reportedly will not be suspended by the league following his recent arrest. This is a big surprise for me, but nonetheless it does move Benson back up my board. He’s still an injury risk, but he’s a talented running back, motivated in a contract year.

RB Bernard Scott DOWN

Scott still has some value because of Benson’s injury history, but with Benson not getting suspended, Scott’s chances to start at some point this year got a lot slimmer.  

WR Brandon Marshall UP

Marshall has been cleared to go full strength for training camp. This is huge for him as he is joining a new team, a new scheme, and pairs with a new quarterback. There’s also a much slimmer chance of any early season struggles for Marshall, who is coming off of a hip injury (you know, the one Josh McDaniels thought he was making up).  

WR Donald Driver DOWN

Driver is still not practicing after having surgery on both of his knees. That’s bad for a 35 year old receiver. He already started to deteriorate late last season. In the Packers last 9 games, including playoffs, he had 37 receptions for 491 yards and 2 scores. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 873 yards and 4 touchdowns. Whether that was age, or the breakout play of Greg Jennings across from him, or simply the fact that a revamped offensive line gave Rodgers more time in the pocket to hit his downfield targets, over Driver the possession type guy. Whatever the issue, it’s not getting better for him this year. He’s older, Jennings is better, and so is the offensive line, and he’s hurt and may not be ready to start the season. Avoid.

WR James Jones UP

Every game Driver misses, Jones will be a starter and thus fantasy valuable. That’s how explosive the Packers offense is.

WR Greg Jennings UP

In his last 9 games, including the playoffs, he had 42 catches for 745 yards and 3 scores. Over 16 games, that’s 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores. Whether it be him breaking out, or Driver getting older, or the improvement of the Packers line, allowing Rodgers to hit him deep, he was much better in the 2nd half last year. It will only continue this season. Their line improved in the offseason, Jennings is moving into the prime of his career as he turns age 27 in September, and Driver is not only old, but badly hurt. Those 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores seem pretty realistic right now, possibly with even more touchdowns because of how explosive the Packers’ offense is. Expect 70-80 catches 1300-1400 yards and 6-8 scores. 

TE Jermichael Finley UP

With Driver hurt, Finley also stands to improve. He’s a tight end and will get a lot of the possession receptions that Driver won’t. He’s also healthy despite there being some questions about his health in the offseason. 

WR Marques Colston DOWN

Colston has been placed on the PUP/Active list after failing his conditioning test, following offseason knee surgery. This is his 3rd straight offseason with knee issues so there are concerns here. 

WR Dez Bryant UP

Yep, this guy again. Bryant suffered a high ankle sprain in practice and will be out 4-6 weeks, meaning all of training camp, probably all the of the preseason, and potentially putting his season opener in doubt. This not only means he could miss a game, but it makes it a lot tougher for him to make the starting lineup, get in sync with his new quarterback, and overall get into game speed. Remember, this guy hasn’t played a game in months thanks to a stupid NCAA suspension last year so those preseason games could have been huge for him. He should still be an explosive player for you by mid season, but he could have some trouble helping you early on.  

Julius Peppers was the class of the 2010 NFL Free Agency class with 81 sacks in 8 years. I get that. However, the Bears are making a huge investment here giving him 6 years 91 million dollars. That will take him until he’s 35 years old. That’s an awful lot of money to pay someone who will be that old at the end of his deal, especially when you consider that Peppers actually has a few issues with work ethic and motor and does take a few games off. This move will help the Bears in the short term, but I’d say there’s a 70% chance that Peppers doesn’t live this deal out in Chicago.

Grade: B-

Wide Reciever

Alabama

6-3 220

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #4

Draft Board Overall Wide Reciever Rank: #2

Rating: 96 (elite)

40 time: 4.39

2/19/11: Julio Jones has been much hyped since he was the #2 overall high school prospect in 2008, behind Da’Quan Bowers, a projected top 5 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He has the combination of size and speed that hasn’t been seen since Calvin Johnson, with sub 4.4 speed at 6-4 220. He’s not quite as physically imposing as the 6-5 Johnson (and unbelievably massive hands), but he’s close.

His one glaring flaw is that he will drop some passes, but he’s the type of player who is so physically imposing that you deal with the drops. He was extremely productive at Alabama, in a run heavy offense. He caught 78 passes for 1133 yards and 7 touchdowns on a team that only had 253 catches for 3395 yards and 24 touchdowns this year. As a mere freshman, he caught 58 passes for 924 yards and 4 touchdowns on a team that only caught 195 passes for 2396 yards and 11 touchdowns all year. He struggles statistically as a sophmore, but what he did as a freshman and as a junior more than make up for it.

His junior year stats are even more impressive when you consider he played through a broken left hand and a bad knee for most of the season. He showed amazing toughness in doing so and from all accounts he’s a high character hard working kid. In addition to what he does as a receiver, he is also an above average run blocker. He was well coached at Alabama and has Pro Style experience in Nick Saban’s offense, running the type of routes that he’ll have to run in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Slightly less athletic Calvin Johnson

So Drayton Florence goes for 15 million over 3 years and Josh Wilson goes for 13.5 million over that same period of time. Something’s not right here. Wilson is a much better cornerback than Florence and the Redskins needed another starter opposite DeAngelo Hall. They got a great value here.

Grade: A

This is being reported as a 5 year 12 million dollar deal with 7.5 million guaranteed, but it’s not 5 years. It’s just 5 years to prorate the signing bonus. It’ll void after 2, presumably if Morgan does something like play at least 1 snap or something. This is just some Dan Snyder salary cap magic. This is a 2 year, 12 million dollar deal with 7.5 million guaranteed.

Josh Morgan has never surpassed 698 yards in a season. In 2009, he had 52 catches for 527 yards and 3 touchdowns and in 2010, he had 44 catches for 698 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s never had a good quarterback until 2011, when he missed 11 games with an injury. In 5 games, he had 15 catches and 220 yards and a touchdown. Josh Morgan is a classic overrated for being underrated guy. Everyone has been saying he’s underrated so much this offseason that he became overrated. He’s a solid #2 receiver coming off a major injury (a brutal broken leg). That’s not worth 6 million per year.

Grade: C

Johnson’s contract is essentially for the veteran’s minimum with 2 million over 2 years. He’s had a bit of a rough NFL career so far as Josh Freeman’s primary backup in Tampa Bay after being a 5^th round pick out of San Diego in 2008 with 10 interceptions to 5 touchdowns and a career 57.7 QB rating. However, Johnson was Harbaugh’s QB at the University of San Diego from 2005-2006 and had a 66 to 13 TD-INT ratio, which he followed with a 42-1 TD-INT ratio in 2007 after Harbaugh left for Stanford. Johnson and Harbaugh clearly wanted each other and, while he’s unproven, he’s perfect for a backup role in San Francisco, with Colin Kaepernick behind Alex Smith.

Grade: A