Kellen Davis spent the first 2 years of his career as purely a blocker and then was moved into a more featured role last year, but because Mike Martz has no idea how to use a tight end, he managed just 18 catches. The Bears believe he can be a featured type tight end and he certainly has intriguing athleticism, but he only has 28 career catches. This deal is reasonable (2 years, 6 million with 2.7 million guaranteed), but the Bears should still bring in another tight end to compete.

Grade: B

 

 

Trade for Cincinnati: Rivers is an above average linebacker when healthy, but the Bengals have a good depth of linebackers already (Maualuga, Manny Lawson, Thomas Howard, and 2011 3^rd rounder Dontay Moch) and they had one of the best defenses in the league last season without Rivers playing a snap. Rivers is an injury risk going forward and would likely not be resigned as a free agent next offseason so it does make sense that the Bengals would get something for him (5^th round pick).

Grade: B

Trade for NY Giants: The Giants will be moving Michael Boley inside to middle linebacker so Rivers will fill their need at outside linebacker. He’s an injury risk, but the Giants are only giving up a 5^th round pick for a player who was ranked 9^th by ProFootballFocus at a major position of need for the Giants. If he can’t stay healthy, 2^nd year players Mark Herzlich and Greg Jones would probably split time there.

The Giants don’t have a ton of needs so they may have been better off using an early pick on more of a sure thing at outside linebacker and someone with more of a future (Rivers is a free agent after the season) than using a 5^th rounder to trade for Rivers. If Rivers gets hurt, they could be in big trouble at the position, though they were in pretty big trouble at the position last season and they still won the Super Bowl.

Grade: B

 

Bill Parcells loves his linebackers and Dansby fills a huge hole in the middle of Miami’s defense. They gave him a fair rate, 5 years 43 million, especially when you consider that Dansby was the youngest of the top free agents. I have no major complaints here, but I’m not in love with the deal either.

Grade: A-

 

Debate the Chiefs offseason and more in the Football Fan Forum

Last season: 4-12

2010 Preview:

This team added some decent players through the draft, but this team is still going to struggle to pressure the opposing quarterback, protect their quarterback, and, thanks to a mediocre supporting cast on offensive, their quarterback play should once again be mediocre, as it was last year. That’s not how you win football games. They will once again be one of the worst teams in the NFL until they can do those things well, even if Eric Berry makes the Pro Bowl this year.

A full season of Jamaal Charles also helps, but they were only 3-6 in games he started last year. That just goes to show you that a good running game doesn’t mean much if you can’t get big gains and first downs through the air and they really struggled with that last year, as they should this year.

Projection: 4-12 3^rd in AFC West

Power Ranking: 28 

Draft: 

#5 S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

I would have gone with Russell Okung, but I can see why they’d take Berry. There was a reason I gave him a near perfect rating this year. This guy is legit. He may be the best safety prospect of the last 20 years. My only issues with him are that he plays safety, which means he’s going to command huge top 5 pick money, making him by far the highest paid safety in the league, and that he won’t have a ton of positions value. He’ll make their defense better, but he won’t help them at the quarterback position, he won’t help them protect the quarterback, and he won’t help them get to the other quarterback. Plus, safeties are often very injury prone because they have to hit like linebackers at cornerback size (see Bob Sanders, Ed Reed, and Troy Polamalu). We’ll see how this goes.

Grade: B+

#36 WR Dexter McCluster (Mississippi)

In the words of a Chiefs fan I know, “we just got McClusterfucked.” McCluster is a fine player and a great weapon, but he’s a luxury pick. The Chiefs already took one luxury pick in the first. They can’t afford to take another. McCluster cannot be the Wes Welker slot receiver they need him to be. He could help in the backfield if it wasn’t already filled with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. He can play a little wildcat, but no one cares about that. He helps as a kick returner, but they don’t need a kick returner. This is not a good use of a pick for a team like the Chiefs.

Grade: C-

#50 CB Javier Arenas (Alabama)

I can see it now, the Chiefs will be the first team to run a 3 kick returner offense. It’ll be really cool, but they’ll lose every game. The Chiefs have taken 3 luxury picks in 3 picks, a safety, a slot receiver/3^rd down back/kick returner, and a nickelback/kick returner. They are all talented players, but how good of a team is this going to be without a true franchise quarterback, a true franchise left tackle, and a poor pass rush. They also need a true NT badly.

Grade: C-

#68 G Jon Asamoah (Illinois)

Not quite as much of a luxury pick as their first three because he will help their line, but he’s not a left tackle so I don’t know how much help he gets Matt Cassel, who has the slowest delivery in the NFL.

Grade: C-

#93 TE Tony Moeaki (Iowa)

Moeaki is also a luxury pick as a tight end, but considering Matt Cassell won’t have a ton of time in the pocket next year, they might as well get his a tight end who can catch short passes over the middle. If Moeaki stays healthy, he could be one of the best tight ends in this draft class, but that’s a very big IF.

Grade: B-

#136 S Kendrick Lewis (Mississippi)

Oh, another safety, that’s cool. Whatever happened to Mr. Positional Value Scott Pioli? He hasn’t done anything to help their pass rush, anything to help their defensive line, and he’s barely gotten them any offensive line help. Lewis shouldn’t have been drafted anyway. He lacks speed majorly.

Grade: F

#142 RLB Cameron Sheffield (Troy)

Oh yes, Chiefs fans can rejoice, they’ve finally taken a pass rusher. This is a great pick, right in the draft range, all that good stuff, but it’s probably too little too late. The Chiefs are doomed to another bad year next year and for the next few years if they keep it up.

Grade: A

Overall:

The Chiefs took good players, but I really don’t think they made themselves much better by taking 2 safeties, 2 kick returners, a guard, and a tight end. McCluster can do somethings offensively for them and Moeaki has upside and Asamoah is a good guard who can start sometime next year and Berry is an amazing player, but at the end of the day, this team really isn’t much better where it matters and if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.

Grade: C-

Key undrafted free agents:

QB Bill Stull (Pittsburgh)

3-4 DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Kansas State)

C Andrew Lewis (Oklahoma State)

NT Garrett Brown (Minnesota)

Positions of need:

Rush Linebacker:

The Chiefs more than doubled their sacks totals from 2008 to 2009! That would be amazing if it weren’t for the fact that the Chiefs managed a mere 10 sacks in 2008. 22 sacks isn’t exactly good either and without Tamba Hali’s 8.5, they would have only 13.5. Mike Vrabel is done as a big time rush linebacker opposite him so they need to secure a replacement for him early in the draft, though not too early because teams are taking big risks when they draft rush linebacker since it’s a position that college teams simply don’t use in their schemes. Anytime you are trying to convert someone from one position to another, it’s a risk, so using the 5^th pick on a rush linebacker would be a stupid move by the Chiefs.

Drafted Cameron Sheffield (#142) 

Offensive Tackle:

Brandan Albert was one of the worst left tackles in the league last year. I guess the trade where they send Jared Allen to the Vikings for the 15^th pick, which they used on Brandan Albert, was not a smart move. Albert, luckily, is versatile enough to move to either left guard or right tackle, so they can still use him, but a true franchise left tackle is needed. Matt Cassel holds on to the ball longer than pretty much every other quarterback in the NFL, so getting him good blockers is especially important. Part of the reason that Cassel struggled so much in 2009 in Kansas City as opposed to 2008 in New England is that Kansas City’s o-line is nowhere near as good as the Patriots.

Nose Tackle:

It’s amazing that they could use 2 first round picks and a 3^rd round pick on the defensive line in the last 2 years and still not be able to stop the run. This is a 3-4 team without a true 3-4 nose tackle. They might have interest in Vince Wilfork since he’s a former Patriot and in Scott Pioli’s mind that makes him great, but I’d say, barring a trade, like say Wilfork for the 5^th pick, they have very little chance of getting him. After they get an elite pass rusher and an elite pass blocker, getting a big guy in the middle of their 3-4 defense should be their #1 target in the draft. Unfortunately for them, this is a very weak nose tackle class and we could see them reach for Terrence Cody at 5 if Russell Okung is off the board.

Wide Receiver:

Chris Chambers was a nice midseason pickup, but their chances of resigning him this offseason aren’t very good. That would leave them with little to nothing across from Dwayne Bowe. Matt Cassel can have all the time in the world in the pocket, but if guys can’t get open downfield, he’ll still struggle this year. You never know, maybe they’ll try to trade for Randy Moss.

Drafted Dexter McCluster (#36) 

Safety:

The Chiefs had a very talented safety named Bernard Pollard. Then they decided to cut him because he was too talented and then they watched him blossom into one of the best young safeties in the league down in Houston. Oops. They should probably replace him.

Drafted Eric Berry (#5), Drafted Kendrick Lewis (#136) 

Middle Linebacker:

Derrick Johnson is a good middle linebacker, but Todd Haley doesn’t like talent so he benched him midway through last season. It’s a wonder why they couldn’t stop anyone on defense. Some young blood is needed at the position, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to wake Junior Seau or Tedy Bruschi from the dead and start them at middle linebacker given Pioli’s fascination with former Patriots.  

Cornerback:

Of all the promising young players they drafted in the first 3 rounds in 2008, Brandon Flowers is the only one who has panned out. Still, despite his emergence as a shutdown corner this year, they still struggled mightily against the pass. Flowers’ shutdown abilities will be next to useless if the opposing quarterback can just pick on the opposite cornerback to move the ball down field. They do have other needs though so, unfortunately, this one could go another season before it gets fixed. They might try to sign Ty Law though.

Drafted Javier Arenas (#50) 

Running Back:

Jamaal Charles turned out to be one of the best running backs in the league. Good thing Todd Haley started him all year, oh wait, it took Larry Johnson, and his 2.7 YPC, getting suspended before, Todd Haley decided to start Jamaal Charles. Then it took another week before Haley realized that throwing 40 times with Matt Cassel would not be an effective game strategy. Back to the point, Charles is a great running back, but I have some concerns about his ability to hold up as a 300+ carry back because he’s never gotten a shot to do that in the past and right now the Chiefs have absolutely nothing at the position behind him. They might want to draft a running back late to compliment him and take the pressure off of him.

Signed Thomas Jones 

Tight End:

They never replaced Tony Gonzalez. I’m sure Matt Cassel would like having a good pass catching tight end to throw to, but since tight ends have such little positional value, this need could get ignored this offseason. Or, again sticking with the theme of signing washed up former Patriots, they could sign Ben Watson.

Drafted Tony Moeaki (#93) 

 

Free agents:

QB Brodie Croyle (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

QB Matt Gutierrez

RB Kolby Smith- signed with Broncos

RB Mike Cox (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year

RB Jackie Battle (exclusive rights)- tendered

WR Chris Chambers- resigned 3 years 15 million

WR Bobby Wade

WR Bobby Engram- signed with Browns 

OT Ryan O’Callaghan (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

OT Barry Richardson (exclusive rights)- resigned 

G Mike Goff 

G Wade Smith- signed with Texans 4 years 12 million

G Andy Alleman (exclusive rights)

C Rudy Niswanger (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

RLB Mike Vrabel- resigned with Chiefs

RLB Andy Studebaker (restricted)- resigned

MLB Derrick Johnson (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.6 million

MLB Corey Mays (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

CB Maurice Leggett (exclusive rights)- resigned

S Jarrad Page (restricted)- tendered (2nd)

Offseason moves: 

Chiefs waive RB Kolby Smith

Chiefs waive QB Matt Gutierrez

Chiefs re-sign MLB Corey Mays

Chiefs re-sign QB Brodie Croyle

Chiefs re-sign OT Ryan O’Callaghan

Chiefs re-sign C Rudy Niswanger

Chiefs re-sign RLB Andy Studebaker

Chiefs re-sign OT Barry Richardson

Chiefs re-sign CB Maurice Leggett

Chiefs re-sign MLB Derrick Johnson

Chiefs re-sign RB Mike Cox

Chiefs announce retirement of QB Quinn Gray

Chiefs sign G Ryan Lilja

Chiefs sign C Casey Wiegmann

Chiefs sign WR Jerheme Urban

Chiefs sign 3-4 DE Shaun Smith

Chiefs sign RB Thomas Jones 

Chiefs re-sign WR Chris Chambers

Colts sign G Andy Alleman

Chiefs tender RB Jackie Battle

Chiefs tender MLB Corey Mays

Chiefs tender QB Brodie Croyle

Chiefs tender ILB Derrick Johnson

Chiefs tender OT Ryan O’Callaghan

Chiefs tender S Jarrad Page

Chiefs tender C Rudy Niswanger

Chiefs re-sign RLB Mike Vrabel

Chiefs cut G Mike Goff

Chiefs re-sign QB Matt Gutierrez

Chiefs re-sign RB Kolby Smith 

 

 

My only question with Wimbley is how he’ll fit in Tennessee. He’s played rush linebacker in a 3-4 and the joker (4-3 defensive end/outside linebacker) position in Oakland. He’ll be an every down stand up defensive end in Tennessee it seems and I just wonder how he’ll handle that. As a pass rusher, he’ll probably be fine.

As an outside linebacker, he was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd rated pass rushing 4-3 outside linebacker with a +16.4, which would have ranked 9^th among defensive ends, as he had 6 sacks and 40 pressures last season. He could struggle against the run with a position change and position changes are always a risk and a projection. Given that, 35 million over 5 years with 13.5 million guaranteed seems a bit rich, though they need really need a pass rusher.

Grade: B

 

 

This is a classic Raider move. The Raiders will give up one of their 2 3^rd rounders, though it has not yet been announced which, either theirs or the one they obtained from the Patriots for Derrick Burgess. Kamerion Wimbley has 15.5 sacks in the last three years combined. He’s undersized at 255 pounds and has never played with his hands on the ground in a 4-3 like the Raiders run. He’s also a free agent after this season so, if he does have a good year, he’ll either just leave or force the Raiders to overpay him (the latter sounds more likely). The Browns continue with their youth movement, Mike Holmgren getting rid of everyone either he or coach Eric Mangini doesn’t like. The difference between this move and the move where they sent Brady Quinn to the Broncos is that they got a fair value here for someone in his contract year.

Grade for Raiders: C

Grade for Browns: A-

 

Deal for Jacksonville: Smiley fills a need up front for the Jaguars and when he’s healthy, he’s a good guard, especially in pass protection. Getting a starting caliber guard for a 7^th round pick is a pretty good deal. The Jaguars ranked 27^th in the league in attempts per sack last year, which is interesting because they spend their first two draft picks on offensive lineman in 2009. It’s actually interesting in general how, when the Jags use back to back picks on a position, they play badly at that position. After all, this team only had 14 sacks last year despite drafting two ends with their first two picks in 2008. Are they going to stink against the run this year because they spend their first 2 picks on defensive tackles?

Grade: A

Deal for Miami: A bit of a cheap sale, might as well release him. Smiley is still an average, if not above average starter in this league, though he has battled injuries, which have caused him to miss 16 games in the last 3 games, and his contract is still pretty big. That being said, I think they sold him too cheap and gave up on him too fast, even with 2010 3^rd round pick John Jerry coming in. Jerry is a bit raw in pass protection and looks like a guy who should not start until 2011. I would have liked to have seen them use him as much needed depth for this year and keep Smiley around. However, I am glad they didn’t just outright cut him as they were rumored to want to do.

Grade: C

 

 

Defensive End/Rush Linebacker

Georgia

6-3 267

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #20

Draft Board Overall Defensive End Rank: #6

Rating: 85 (mid 1^st)

40 time: 4.57

4/26/11: Houston failed a drug test for marijuana at The Combine. This is more of a stupidity test than anything. You know you’re going to be tested. I’m not dropping him too far. Remember Percy Harvin’s failed drug test? Unless it’s a quarterback, this isn’t a major issue. 

3/23/11: Down 3 pounds from The Combine, Houston looked even more athletic, running a 4.57, with a 1.62 10 yard split, and moving well in the drills. 

3/14/11: Justin Houston is an intriguing prospect. We all know he can get to the quarterback with 17.5 sacks in a major conference in the last 2 years. He’s got a good motor and a clean history, but before The Combine, everyone saw him as a prospect similar to Jerry Hughes, the 31^st overall pick in 2010, almost solely a 3-4 player at under 6-3 and under 260 pounds, with the ability to fit into selective 4-3s (for instance the Colts who drafted him).

However, Houston surprised everyone at The Combine, not only by measuring in at 6-3, but also by showing up at 270 pounds. That certainly helps his stock as a 4-3 player, which means he could go as high as #20 to Tampa Bay, #24 to New Orleans, #25 to Seattle, and almost certainly won’t fall past the Falcons at #27. However, some say it ruined him as a 3-4 player.

I am not of this opinion. I believe that by running a 4.67 and looking fluid in drills that he didn’t completely ruin his stock as a 3-4 player. People like to use Robert Ayers as a cautionary tale. Ayers, as a 272 pound end/linebacker, was drafted with the 18^th overall pick in 2009 and two years later has not even blossomed into a consistent starter for Denver.

I see several differences between Ayers and Houston. For one, Houston played some linebacker in college as the Georgia Bulldog use more 3-4 than most teams (with California and Alabama being the other 2 notable 3-4 college teams). On tape, he looked very fluid in coverage and as a pass rusher in the two point stance. Granted, this was all when he was 10-15 pounds lighter, but the experience, at the very least, is going to help him at the next level.

Houston’s 40 time, 4.67, was better than Ayers’ 4.78 and Ayers didn’t look as fluid as Houston on tape. Finally, Houston is the better pass rusher. Ayers is definitely the better run stopper of the two and with only 7.5 sacks in his final 2 seasons at Tennessee, Ayers was much better known for being a run stopping left end than a pass rushing right end. Houston is the opposite. He is significantly better as a pass rusher with 17.5 sacks in his last 2 years, but doesn’t have Ayers’ ability as a run stopper.

3-4 teams will definitely have to examine him more closely in individual workouts, unable to purely rely on the tape after his weight gain, but teams like Kansas City at #21, Baltimore at #26, and New England at #28 will all give him a close look needing rush linebackers.

In the end, I love Houston as a prospect. I have a flat mid 1^st round grade on him and think he should come off the board in the first 15-20 picks. In reality, he’ll probably go a little bit lower (though you never know with Jacksonville at #16, they always seem to make one pick per year you never see coming).

I love Houston’s motor, Houston’s experience and proven track record in both a 3-4 and a 4-3, his athleticism, and his overall mature pass rushing repertoire. I think he compares well to Calvin Pace, an athletic pass rusher in the high 260/low 270 pound range throughout his career, who has had success as a good, but not great pass rusher in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 scheme in his career.

NFL Comparison: Calvin Pace

 

 

 

When I saw the Falcons resigned Blalock, I was impressed they were able to walk away from free agency only losing one offensive lineman and also signing a much needed pass rushing left end in Ray Edwards. Then I saw how much they paid him. Did they overpay Blalock, a guard, by giving him 38 million over 6 years with 16 million guaranteed? I definitely think so, but they have no major free agents left so it’s not the worst thing in the world to overpay a bit when he’s a valued member of a strength from a 13-3 team and you can fit him under the cap.

Grade: B

 

 

Wide receiver

Oklahoma State

6-1 207

Draft board overall prospect rank: #9

Draft board overall wide receiver rank:  #1

Overall rating: 90 (Borderline Top 10 prospect)

40 time: 4.46

Games watched: Oklahoma State/Texas A&M, Texas/Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State/Oklahoma

Positives

·         Incredibly productive 2 year starter (111/1782/20 and 121/1522/18)

·         Above average size (6-1 207)

·         Above average size (4.46)

·         Vertical, deep threat

·         Great body control

·         Can go over the middle

·         Thrived even against double coverage

·         Above average route runner

·         Physical athlete who breaks a lot of tackles

·         In excellent physical shape

·         Strong hands

·         Makes a good amount of impressive catches

·         Large catch radius

·         Catches in stride well

·         Above average run blocker

Negatives

·         Not an elite physical specimen

·         DUI arrest in 2010

·         Maybe just a system quarterback

·         Always played in a pass heavy offense with a great quarterback

·         Mental lapses from time to time

·         Can be a bit of a diva receiver who gets frustrated

·         Drops more passes than you’d like

·         Needs to be more of a hands catcher than a body catcher

NFL Comparison: Steve Johnson

Contrary to popular belief, Justin Blackmon is not an elite wide receiver prospect. He does not grade out on the same level as players like AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Calvin Johnson. As a prospect, he’s more on the level of Michael Crabtree. He’s an above average athlete with above average size and above average speed, but he’s not the elite physical specimen you look for when you look at a wide receiver to potentially take in the top 5.

I think he’s a bit overrated because of his incredible level of production at Oklahoma State, but he did so in a pass heavy spread offense with an elite college quarterback in Brandon Weeden. In the last 2 seasons, he has 111 catches for 1782 yards and 20 touchdowns and 121 catches for 1522 yards and 18 touchdowns. Those numbers suggest elite wide receiver, but like Michael Crabtree’s they’re a little bloated because of his situation.

As a player, he reminds more of Steve Johnson. Steve Johnson is a low end #1 wide receiver with above average physical skills. In the last 2 seasons, the 6-2 Johnson has 82 catches for 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns. That’s the type of production you can expect from Blackmon in his 2^nd or 3^rd year in the league (rookie receivers tend to take a while to get into the flow).

Johnson also frustrates at times. He drops more passes than you’d like and he can be overly showboaty. He dropped 6 passes including a game winner in a loss to Pittsburgh in 2010 and then in 2011 he celebrated a touchdown in the middle of the game and only to drop two balls on a potential game winning drive in a loss. He’s also been fined several times for end zone celebrations.

Blackmon also drops more balls than you’d like and does some foolish things. In a win over Texas A&M, Blackmon dropped a couple passes, got blanketed by double coverage, which frustrated him. After Weeden didn’t throw to him when he was supposedly open, Blackmon was noticeably frustrated at his quarterback. He also ran with the ball exposed and fumbled a sure touchdown and didn’t bring another touchdown to his body, leaving it susceptible to being knocked out, though it wasn’t. Its lapses in concentrations like this that frustrate with Blackmon, but ultimately, he’s worth the headaches because he’s still a rare physical talent and a #1 receiver.

Blackmon’s draft stock starts at 4 to Cleveland, though he probably won’t be drafted there. St. Louis at 6 makes a lot more sense and Jacksonville at 7 and Miami at 8 would both give him a very long look. He probably won’t get out of the top 8, but we said the same thing about Crabtree, who was passed on by Seattle at 4, Oakland at 7, and Jacksonville at 8 before going to San Francisco at 10. Minnesota is another option if they trade down from 3. I think the top 5 or 6 would be a little rich for him, but he’s a borderline top 10 pick who should have a strong career.