By Anthony Brown

The Washington Redskins will finish with six or seven wins this season, according to Paul Bessire, the Stat-master behind The Prediction Machine. He projects the same finish for the Dallas Cowboys, which could mean the ‘Skins and ‘Boys could end the season fighting to stay out of division last place.

How did it come to this in a season that started so well? Here’s Bessire’s assessment:

“The Redskins are about as average across the board as any NFL team that I have ever studied. They don’t do anything really well, yet are only really deficient against the run. That would be the biggest difference between our expectations for this team and what the Redskins look like now; we expected a more physical, aggressive team on defense. We saw that physicality earlier in the season, but Washington has lost that edge (and then some) as the season has progressed. Blame it on depth, Albert Haynesworth, scheme, lack of talent or quality of competition, but the inability to hold up against the run has cost the team gravely, particularly against NFC East rivals.”

Ouch! The Washington Redskins defense has Norv Turner Syndrome. They’ve gone soft. Talk as much as you like about the 3-4 defense, Albert Haynesworth and how Mike Shanahan “handled” him, it’s pretty clear that somewhere along the way, Washington stopped playing east coast Beastball. You know what that is–run hard so that your offensive linemen can beat up on their defense, and slobber-knocking defense to crush anyone holding the ball.

The Redskins started the season that way. Something happened between the October, when Eagles quarterback Michael Vick was the cheese in the Kareem Moore-DeAngelo Hall sandwich, and last Sunday when the ‘Skins were crushed by the New York Giants.

After that loss, fans are pointing fingers at Albert Haynesworth, Mike Shanahan, Dan Snyder, just about everyone. I suspect it was the nature of the New York loss  that has everyone up in arms. Show strength if you are going to lose. At least that offers hope that we can compete the next time. ‘Skins fans don’t know what to expect against Tampa Bay. It’s unsettling.

East coast smashmouth is so identified with the NFC East that the whole division was branded as the Beast. New York is the lone Beast team adhering to the brand. Philadelphia has remade itself as the most dynamic young offense in the division, nigh unbeatable with Vick at quarterback. Don’t let Vick escape from the Eagles’ roster. He would surely end up in Washington, the closest he can get to a hometown team with his native Newport News, Virginia, and all those Virginia Tech fans near by. Philadelphia would never send three quarterbacks (counting Sonny Jurgensen) to Washington.

The Dallas Cowboys lost the lunch pail mentality that defines the Beast. There are too many egos in that franchise, on the field and in the front office. There are too many rookie divas who won’t do this or that in homage to the other ten guys whose grunt work lets them shine.  There are too many stars on the Cowboys, none of them very bright.

I predicted an eight-win season for the ‘Skins at the start of the season. That looks iffy now with the suddenly tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars and another game against the Giants on the schedule. It can be done, but only if the Redskins go back to their Beastball roots and hit somebody.

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Debate the Texans’ offseason needs in The Football Fan Forum 

2010 Preview:

The Texans lost 7 games last year, 5 by a touchdown or fewer, 6 by 10 points or less. You would think that a team as talented as this bunch would win a few more of those games and finally make the playoffs, but I’m going to say otherwise. First, they have one of the toughest schedules in the league with 11 games against teams that won 8 or more games last year and 13 games against teams that won 7 or more games last year. 

Second, it’s not like their record in games decided by 1 touchdown or less was bad. They lost 5 by a touchdown or fewer, but they also won 5 by a touchdown or fewer. People saying this team is going to win 10 or 11 games and citing their amount of close losses are misinformed.

This wasn’t a team that got unlucky in the clutch last year. This is a team that played a lot of close games. Unless they step up and become a clutch team and start winning 60-70% of their close games, they aren’t going to be better than last year. With a tougher schedule this year, I think they’ll actually have a worse record this season than last, and once again miss the playoffs.

Projection: 8-8 3rd in AFC South 

Power Ranking: 19 

Draft:

#20 CB Kareem Jackson (Alabama)

He fills a much needed hole left by Dunta Robinson, who left for big money in Atlanta. The Colts were able to destroy the Texans through the secondary all last year and that would only get worse if the Texans didn’t address the position, so I like the position. I just had other players (Kyle Wilson, Brandon Ghee) rated higher, like by a whole round’s worth.

Grade: B-

#58 RB Ben Tate (Auburn)

He fills a need at running back, which they said numerous times they would try to address. Tate is good, but has a very inconsistent motor and doesn’t like to take contact. I wouldn’t have given him a shot in the 2^nd round, but he is a decent fit for their cut and go run blocking scheme and he fills a need.

Grade: C+

#81 DT Earl Mitchell (Arizona)

This is a bit of a reach, but it again fills a need. I just get the sense that the Texans’ draft board is pretty different than mine, which is not necessarily a bad thing, and unlike some teams, they are actually addressing important needs. Mitchell is a solid player, but he’s a former fullback with a maxed out frame, short arms, and lacks bulk. He’s a solid nickel rusher and rotation player, but not the future starter type you like out for a 3^rd round pick.

Grade: C-

#102 OLB Daryl Sharpton (Miami)

Sharpton is a bit of a reach, but not a huge reach. He played middle linebacker in college, but I think he can kick to the outside and help them at strong side outside linebacker a bit. However, linebacker wasn’t a big need and Sharpton is a bit of a reach and position changes are never easy.

Grade: C

#118 TE Garrett Graham (Wisconsin)

Garrett Graham is a solid player and all, but the Texans have a Pro-Bowl caliber tight end in Owen Daniels and they also drafted two tight ends last year, so I don’t see the need for a guy like Graham.

Grade: D

#146 CB Sherrick McManis (Northwestern)

A slight reach in round 5, but he’s still a decent pick. The Texans needed to double dip in the cornerback position this year to try to defeat Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Grade: B-

#187 G Shelley Smith (Colorado State)

The Texans needed some interior depth coming into this offseason and Smith fits the scheme and is a decent, but not great, value.

Grade: B

#197 WR Trindon Holliday (LSU)

Holliday is undersized, but an explosive kick returner who should have an immediate impact on the Texans in the field position game. If Holliday can get 3-5 more yards per carry than their kick returner last year, that could be a huge difference for a team that seemingly lost every game by less than a touchdown.

Grade: A

#227 TE Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh)

Wow. Their 4^th tight end they’ve drafted in the last two years, despite the fact that they already have Owen Daniels on the roster (who by the way they gave a 1st/3rd tender this offseason). Dickerson will probably be moved to another position, which is the only explanation for this. He can play fullback and wide receiver and help on special teams and he’s an outstanding value in the 7^th.

Grade: A

Overall:

As I said before, I think the Texans just had a different looking draft board than me, which is fine assuming their players pan out. However, I don’t really like the haul of players they caught. They do earn extra points for actually addressing needs though.

Grade: B-

Key Undrafted Free Agents

OT Adam Ulatoski (Texas)

S Aaron Webster (Cincinnati)

DT Malcolm Sheppard (Arkansas)

OT Jason Watkins (Florida)

OLB Will Patterson (Indiana)

OT Cole Pemberton (Colorado State)

FB Jack Corcoran (Rutgers)

Positions of need:

Cornerback:

The Texans corners got a grand total of 1 interception from their cornerbacks last year. To make things worse, top shutdown corner Dunta Robinson is a free agent this offseason and he wants big money that the Texans don’t appear to want to spend. If either Donovan Warren or Kyle Wilson slip past the Falcons to the Texans at 20, they could pull the trigger.

Drafted Kareem Jackson (#20) 

Safety:

Eugene Wilson was great last year…until he got hurt. He’s missed 29 games in 4 years and they don’t have depth behind them. They need to be strong in the secondary everywhere to have a shot to beat Peyton Manning. In state safety Earl Thomas would make sense at 20 if he’s still there, as would a guy like Nate Allen in the second.

Defensive Tackle:

Amobi Okoye had a down year last year, but I expect him to bounce back in the future. Either way, they’ll need at upgrade at the other defensive tackle position. If they can’t get Dan Williams in the first, they’ll look for guys in the mid rounds.

Drafted Earl Mitchell (#81) 

Outside Linebacker

Taking Brian Cushing in the first round was a great decision, but unfortunately they needed two linebacker upgrades last offseason and only got one. They can focus on the other side this year and should take advantage of the depth of the outside linebacker class by finding someone they feel will fit their scheme in the mid rounds.

Drafted Daryl Sharpton (#102), Signed Danny Clark

Running Back:

Gary Kubiak enjoys starting random guys at the running back position. I literally think he puts the name of every running back on his roster into a hat and draws one and then runs with him for that drive and then repeats. Steve Slaton probably won’t be ready for the start of next season, plus they don’t seem to like him because he fumbles too much. Jahvid Best has an outside shot at the 20^th pick. If not, they’ll still target one in the late rounds. At the very least, they need a goal line back because they really struggled to run the football in the red zone.

Drafted Ben Tate (#58) 

Wide Receiver:

Kevin Walter is a free agent leaving them without much next to Andre Johnson except a few guys who are best suited as slot guys, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson. They could resign Walter, but if they have a receiver like Dez Bryant fall into their laps, they’ll pull the trigger.

Guard:

One, if not two, upgrades are needed inside. Gary Kubiak likes building in the trenches, so they could target one in the 2^nd-4^th rounds.

Signed Wade Smith, Drafted Shelley Smith (#187) 

 

Free agents:

QB Rex GROSSman- signed with Redskins 1 year

RB Chris Brown

RB Ryan Moats- signed with Vikings

WR Kevin Walter (restricted)- resigned 5 years 21.5 million

TE Owen Daniels (restricted)- resigned 1 year 3.1 million

OT Rashad Butler (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

G Chester Pitts- signed with Seahawks

G Chris White (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.2 million

G Mike Brisiel (restricted)

DT Tim Bulman (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

DT Deljuan Robinson (restricted)- tendered

MLB DeMeco Ryans (restricted)- resigned 6 year 48 million

MLB Chaun Thompson

#8 CB Dunta Robinson- signed with Falcons 6 years 57 million

He’s fast and would be a good fit in a zone style defense, but he has hands of stone, 7 picks since 2004, and 0 all last year, and has some character concerns. I think he gets a reputation as a #1 corner, but 65.9% of the passes thrown on guys he was responsible for were completed last year and he’s also one of the more penalized defensive backs in the league. I think someone will overpay him.

S Bernard “Patriot Killer” Pollard (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.5 million

S Josh Busing (restricted)

S Nick Ferguson

P Matt Turk- resigned 1 year

Offseason moves:

Texans re-sign TE Owen Daniels 

Texans waive RB Ryan Moats 

Texans sign OLB Danny Clark 

Texans re-sign OT Rashad Butler

Texans re-sign G Chris White 

Texans re-sign RB Ryan Moats 

Texans sign K Neil Rackers 

Texans re-sign S Bernard Pollard 

Texans resign MLB DeMeco Ryans

Texans re-sign DT Tim Bulman 

Texans sign G Wade Smith

Texans re-sign WR Kevin Walter

Texans re-sign P Matt Turk

Texans tender S Bernard Pollard

Texans tender TE Owen Daniels

Texans tender MLB DeMeco Ryans

Texans tender OT Rashad Butler

Texans tender RB Ryan Moats

Texans tender DT Tim Bulman

Texans tender G Chris White

Texans tender DT Deljuan Robinson 

# refers to unrestricted free agent rank

By Kevin Harrison

It was right there almost a year ago.  It was the same stadium.  It was in the same month.  It was against the same team.  It was against the future Hall of Fame quarterback. And, now, after another regular season ended, the Jets were back to face the Colts.  

That eleven point lead in the first half still haunts me like does the ten point lead we had in 1998 against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.  This may not be the Championship Game but it is still Mr. Manning standing in the way of the Jets mission of winning the Super Bowl. 

Rex Ryan has been telling us since he was hired that we are going to win the Super Bowl.  We fell 32 minutes short last year but are back in the hunt again and he still believes we are going to win the Super Bowl.  But, first we must seek revenge on that same team that ended the dream last year.

It’s been a crazy season so far.  Twelve of the Jets 16 games have come down to the last five minutes with the Jets winning many of them including some comebacks that us Jets fans will remember forever.  And, after this first round match-up to start the postseason, another miracle comeback gets added to the Sanchize resume.

Yes, Mark Sanchez is starting to become the next generations’ Mr. Comeback with his 53 second drive, on the road, to beat the Colts by a point after things were looking bleak.

Let me back up a little bit.  The Jets had the ball and a two point lead and basically needed two first downs to end the game.  It was third and 5 and we had been driving the ball nicely with a combination of short passes and some ground and pound running.  You would think that Schottenheimer would call a short pass for a sure first down.  Instead, Sanchez overthrows the ball deep for an incompletion.  Thus, the clock stops and we have to put the ball back to the Colts.  At the time, this was an utter disaster getting the ball back in Manning’s hands.

And, in true Peyton Manning form, he drove the Colts down to field goal position with the Jets finally stopping them on 3^rd down.  However, Mr. Clutch, Adam V, was coming into the game as confident as ever to boot a 50 yard field goal to give the Colts a one point edge.

Could Mark Sanchez, the 2^nd year wonder, lead the Jets down the field with two time outs, on the road, again as he’s done so many times this year?   The Colts kick off the ball with 53 seconds left and we have Cromartie doing the returns with Brad Smith slightly injured and this was a great move to put Cromartie in as he showed a nice burst of speed on his prior return.  And, Antoino took the kick about 40 yards to put the Jets in great field goal position.

The Jets ran a few plays and a call came in that Sanchez and Braylon Edwards waved off.  Braylon said he could get open and Sanchez voiced that to Schottenheimer who then basically said, “Go for it” and Sanchez hit him.  YES.  The Jets were in field goal position.

Now, kicking game winning field goals makes me extremely ill.  We all remember the Doug Brien game, whom I still do NOT blame as no one would ever make that kick in Pittsburgh, but the kicker still always gets blamed.

And here was Nick Folk who had had a decent year replacing Jay Feely after a rough few game patch a few weeks ago.  He confidently enters the field with three seconds left and boots a 32 yard field goal to win the game.  The Jets Win.  The Jets Win.  The Jets Win.

Rex Ryan had beaten a Peyton Manning team.  The Jets win ANOTHER road playoff game.  We came back.  We beat a good team.  The Super Bowl chances are still alive.

There were a few things that I loved.  We returned to our roots with the running game.  LT and Shonn Green were looking great and you could tell that last week’s rest paid off as they both had their legs. 

I loved the play of Darrelle Revis.  Hell, he just gave up one yard to one of the BEST receivers in the game and basically made him non-existent.  I guess it sucks to get banished to Revis Island.

The Defense was amazing in general.  The Colts could barely generate a running game and Peyton didn’t have a ton of open players for his throwing game.  You can’t complain holding a Peyton Manning team to just 16 points.

Sanchez was a bit rusty in the first half throwing high many of his targets and killed us with his interception in the end zone in the end part of the second quarter.  I know he was trying to do too much but we can’t afford those kinds of mistakes as the interception negated a field goal attempt.

Cromartie getting burned on a long touchdown was one of the low points of the game and he heard it from Rex Ryan.  He looked much better after that.

And the game almost changed on the first punt with Santiono Holmes letting a ball go through his legs that almost grazed him which would have been a fumble and that could have destroyed the entire game.  Luckily, the Colts reviewed and it never grazed him but Santonio…stay the F**K away from the ball next time!

So, it’s back to New England where the Jets suffered one of the worst loses in team history.  Can we stop Tom Brady?  Can we out coach Bill Belicheck?  I know Rex Ryan doesn’t want to kiss another of his rings so let’s hope we can figure out the Patriots mystique by next Sunday.  For now, I’m gonna enjoy this game for a few more days before I start getting nervous all over again for this next huge hurdle.

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By Kevin Harrison 

The heart attack Jets were at it again this past Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.  It was the Jets vs. their old coach, Eric Mangini.  It was a homecoming for Braylon Edwards.  It was Rex Ryan vs. brother Rob Ryan.  It was a bunch of Ex Jets vs. their old teammates.  It was all against the team that made the dumb trade for us to draft Mark Sanchez.

I’m definitely going have heart failure watching these Jets as nothing seems to come easy.   Our last three wins have been wins that Championship teams are made of; you just find new ways to win games that seem lost at one point.  

We got lucky in Denver with the pass interference call.  We stole away a victory last week in Detroit with a miracle comeback.  And then this week, we give up the lead with 44 seconds left in regulation and then win in overtime with just 16 seconds left.  Sometimes luck is just with you and this seems to be one of those years like no other that I’ve ever had.  Actually, back in 1998, we had 4 crazy 4^th quarter comebacks that season, including the Monday Night Miracle, and that season took us all the way to the AFC Championship Game where the Jets fell apart in the 2^nd half after holding a 10 point lead. 

It would just be nice if we could win a game with out making us sweat it out at the end.  I’d like to see a 31-10 victory already.  But, I’ll surely take what has transpired through the first 9 games of the season and I’m surely not complaining about a 7-2 record as it could be a lot worse if the ball didn’t bounce our way.

The story of the game was Mark Sanchez passing for 299 yards, 2 TD passes, and 1 TD rush.  But, there was as scare in the 2^nd half when our Sanchize went down and Mark Brunell was warming up.  However, our fearless leader re-entered the game to eventually lead us to victory.  There were a few key plays in the game.  There was an amazing scramble my Mark Sanchez who hit a limping Jerricho Cotchery who dove and made a miraculous catch for a first down to keep their drive alive which had put them up by 7 points after connecting a field goal.  It could have been the catch of the NFL this season.

Unfortunately, the defense just couldn’t hold the Browns who walked down the field and tied up the game with just 44 seconds left.  You would think that with a 7 point lead and the game on the line that our defense would have been able to stop the Browns.  It was quite disgusting to watch as we had the game in hand and the defense let it slip away.

But, our lucky Jets, for the 2^nd week in a row, won the coin toss.  However, it didn’t result in a score.  The overtime was back and fourth for a bit but things were looking bleak until the Browns, ex-Jet Chansi Stucky, turned over the ball in field goal range.   The Jets then missed a FG in return. Luckily, we were able to get the ball back and Jets were in a 3^rd and long situation and chucked the ball deep down field which was intercepted with about 1:34 left in the OT.  This turned out to be the crucial play in overtime.  The defender should have dropped the ball, forcing the Jets to punt. However, instinct took over and the Browns started with the ball on their own 1 yard line. 

Our Defense was now not going to lose this game and before I could let out a deep breath; the Browns were punting the ball back to us with not a lot of time on the clock.  It did help that the Browns threw on 1^st down stopping the clock.  Luckily, Jim Leonhard had a nice 18 yard punt  return to help our field position and then on first down, Sanchez hits Santiono Holmes on a crossing route which resulted in a 37 yard TD with just 16 seconds remaining before the game would have been declared a tie.  And again the Jets win.

Things didn’t start out pretty.  We were playing from behind a lot in the first half.  And we didn’t help ourselves with Nick Folk missing three field goals.

The most painful part of the game was coming out in the second half to conduct a 19 play, 10+ minute drive that resulted in zero points due to a missed field goal.  Come on…you gotta make that kick.

Again, it wasn’t a perfect Jets victory but it was a victory and that’s all that matters in this game.  If the keep playing like they do, I’ll take it as long as they win; but, I would like them to have a complete game already.  Bring on the Texans !

Here are some interesting stats of this game:

1. Jets had their second straight overtime win.
2. Jets have won 8 consecutive regular season road games.
3. Jets are the first team to win consecutive overtime road games.
4. It was the first time the Jets won an overtime game on a TD reception since October 18, 1987.
5. The Jets rushed for over 100 yards for the ninth straight game to open the season.  They haven’t accomplished that feat since 1978.
6. The Jets deprived the Browns their 500^th franchise win.
7. The Jets have not allowed 100 yards to any running back this season.
8. Nick Folk missed a career-high 3 field goals.

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Safety

Notre Dame

6-2 213

Draft board overall prospect rank: #38

Draft board safety rank: #2

Overall rating: 79 (2^nd round)

40 time: 4.56

Games watched: Notre Dame/Michigan, Notre Dame/Wake Forest

Positives

·         Smart, fundamental player

·         Great leader

·         Vocal captain of the defense

·         Fundamental tackler who rarely misses a tackle

·         Gritty tough player

·         Good size (6-2 213)

·         Takes great routes to the ball

·         Great instincts

·         Hard hitter

·         Fast in pursuit

·         High motor

·         Relentless

·         Acts as a 4^th linebacker in the box

·         Great field vision

·         Reads quarterback’s eyes well

·         Underrated athleticism

·         Good technique in coverage

·         Makes plays on the ball (17 deflections and 7 interceptions in last 2 seasons)

·         4 year starter with good tackle totals (57, 69, 90, 91)

·         Played both safety and linebacker

Negatives

·         Plays mostly in the box

·         Inexperienced in coverage

·         Didn’t look as athletic on tape as did at The Combine

·         Stiff hips

·         No interceptions as a senior

·         Can’t be left on an island in coverage

·         Only a strong safety

Comparison: Eric Weddle

Harrison Smith is an undervalued safety prospect who could get drafted in the early 2^nd round in a weak safety class. He’s not the athlete that Mark Barron, who will go in the first round, is, but he’s going to be a solid to above average safety at the next level. He’s a fundamentally strong player with all the intangibles and a lot of good tape.

At Notre Dame he played mostly in the box, but he’s in his a box player. When asked to cover, he generally did a good job. He’s a bit stiff in coverage and can’t be left on an island, but he showed impressive athleticism at The Combine, though that doesn’t always show up on tape. He’s also very inexperienced in coverage, as this was something he wasn’t asked to do much at Notre Dame, but he’s also got upside in that facet of the game.

As a box player, he rarely misses a tackle and takes great routes to the ball. He’s a hard hitter and a fundamental tackler that really looks like an extra linebacker there at times. He’s an experienced 4 year starter with 57, 69, 90, 91 tackles in his 4 seasons. He’s also got good size at 6-2 213. He’s a high motor player and a vocal leader on the football field.

As a player, I compare him to the Chargers’ Eric Weddle. Weddle came into the league with little fanfare and spent the first few years of his career as an underrated, overlooked player because he never recorded a lot of interceptions. However, he was an above average safety who was strong against the run and not awful in coverage. He also improved as a starter in each season and was a high character leader on San Diego’s defense.

Last offseason he got a well deserved large contract and he responded with 7 interceptions after just 6 in his first 4 seasons, though that’s not a strength of his game. Smith had 7 interceptions in 2010, but didn’t have a single in 2011, though he deflected 10 passes that year. He has underrated ball skills, but that’s not really a strength of his game.