Updated 9/3/10 

This top 30 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your WR1 or WR2 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to wide receivers 30+, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 31st or 32nd best wide receivers as your WR2. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver for fantasy purposes this year. Larry Fitzgerald is close to his level in terms of talent, but doesn’t have the talent at quarterback that Johnson has. Johnson had 101 catches for 1569 yards and 9 scores last year and 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 scores the year before so we shouldn’t expect anything different from him this year.

2. Miles Austin

Austin had 81 catches for 1320 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, despite not becoming a starter until week 5. Take his stats weeks 5-17 and stretch them over a 16 game season and you get 101 catches for 1652 yards and 13 scores. That’s pretty good. Also consider the fact that he was drawing a bunch of double teams last year and probably won’t have to deal with that as much this year with Dez Bryant coming in. Johnson is the safer option this year, but I would not be surprised if Austin led receivers in fantasy points this year and I would not be afraid of taking Austin in the late 1^st/early 2^nd round this year.

3. Randy Moss

Randy Moss didn’t try at 100% last year. Even as a Patriots fan, I’ll admit that. Tom Brady also wasn’t a 100% all year, whether it be a finger injury, a rib bruise, or his knee problem. Moss will be playing 100% this year. He’s in his contract year. The last time he was in a contract year and Brady was healthy, Moss exploded for 23 scores. He won’t do that this year, but I think he surpasses his stats overall from last year. Last year he had 83 catches for 1264 yards and 13 scores, even at the age of 33.

4. Calvin Johnson

Johnson didn’t play well last year, but he was hurt so I’m not really going to hold that against him. This is the guy who caught 78 balls for 1331 yards and 12 scores in 2008, as a 23 year old on a 0-16 team with a load of crap at quarterback. If he’s healthy, he could surpass those stats with Matt Stafford at quarterback.

Tier 2

5. DeSean Jackson

DeSean Jackson also will have to deal with a presumed downgrade at quarterback going from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb, although, unlike Leinart who has proven himself to not be very good, 70.8 QB rating in 595 career throws, Kolb is relatively unproven. In Kolb’s two starts last year, Jackson had 250 yards and 2 scores. That’s encouraging, but also a small sample. I think Jackson will be fine this year, but he’s not going to be quite what he was last year, 62 catches for 1159 yards and 9 scores, because I don’t think Kolb’s arm is quite as strong as McNabb’s and Jackson is the definition of a deep threat.

6. Roddy White

White is a reliable guy. He’s had at least 83 catches, 1153 yards, and 6 scores in each of the last 3 seasons. As long as Matt Ryan is still his quarterback, White should be good for 80-90 catches 1100-1200 yards and 8-10 scores.

7. Brandon Marshall

7/30/10: Marshall has been cleared to go full strength for training camp. This is huge for him as he is joining a new team, a new scheme, and pairs with a new quarterback. There’s also a much slimmer chance of any early season struggles for Marshall, who is coming off of a hip injury (you know, the one Josh McDaniels thought he was making up).  

Marshall has had 100 catches and 1100+ yards in each of the past 3 years. However, last year his YPC fell from 13.0 and 12.2 to 11.1 because Denver’s new quarterback, Kyle Orton, didn’t have the arm strength to get the ball down to him downfield like his previous quarterback, Jay Cutler. Chad Henne, his quarterback in Miami, has arm strength that is closer to Cutler’s than Orton’s so I expect to see that YPC go back up. However, the 100 catches actually could be in some jeopardy. Marshall had hip surgery and will miss some of training camp. This is not good for his chemistry with new quarterback Chad Henne and for his adjustment to a new scheme. That being said, he missed some of training camp last year with new quarterback Kyle Orton and Josh McDaniels’ new scheme and still caught 100 balls. He should be a solid fantasy option and borderline WR1.

8. Greg Jennings

7/30/10: In his last 9 games, including the playoffs, he had 42 catches for 745 yards and 3 scores. Over 16 games, that’s 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores. Whether it be him breaking out, or Driver getting older, or the improvement of the Packers line, allowing Rodgers to hit him deep, he was much better in the 2nd half last year. It will only continue this season. Their line improved in the offseason, Jennings is moving into the prime of his career as he turns age 27 in September, and Driver is not only old, but badly hurt. Those 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores seem pretty realistic right now, possibly with even more touchdowns because of how explosive the Packers’ offense is. Expect 70-80 catches 1300-1400 yards and 6-8 scores. 

Jennings struggled a bit last year with 68 catches for 1113 yards and 4 scores.  However, he was a lot better after Clifton and Tauscher returned (as was their entire team it seems). Rodgers had more time in the pocket and more time to get the ball down the Jennings, his deep threat.  In his last 9 games, including the playoffs, he had 42 catches for 745 yards and 3 scores. Over 16 games, that’s 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores. With Clifton and Tauscher healthy for the start of this year, and Bryan Bulaga drafted in case one of them gets hurt, he could get close to those stats this year. Also, Donald Driver is getting up there in age so Jennings could see an increase in targets for that reason as well.

9. Steve Smith (CAR)

8/19/10: Any speculation that Smith and his broken arm would not be ready for the season or not in game shape for the season were destroyed when Smith was surprisingly activated from the PUP list a couple weeks before anyone expected him too. Smith was amazing in the 4 games that he and Matt Moore both started, with 398 yards and 3 scores, despite leaving midway through the 4^th game with his first broken arm of the last 9 months. Smith is surprisingly underrated this year. 

6/29/10: Smith broke his left arm recently. He is expected to return for the regular season, but he’ll miss valuable training time with two quarterbacks, Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who he doesn’t have an extensive history with. He also may not be 100% come regular season. He may be out of shape. His recovery may also run long and he could miss a game or two. I’m knocking him down just a bit.

In the four games Steve Smith played with Matt Moore last year, he had 378 yards and 3 scores, despite leaving midway through the 4^th game with a broken arm. This year, he is either going to have Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen as his quarterback and I think both of them are better than Jake Delhomme was last year. He has a history of being inconsistent so it’s tough to extrapolate those 4 game stats across 16 games, but if you do, you get 1512 yards and 12 scores. Not bad considering he has had multiple 1400+ yard seasons in his career before. He should be a very solid WR2 and borderline WR1.

10. Reggie Wayne

Wayne is the model of consistency for fantasy football owners. He hasn’t missed a game for any reason since his rookie year, 2001. He has had 1000+ yards and 75+ catches in every season since 2004. His quarterback, Peyton Manning, also never misses games. Like ever. However, he may be wearing down a bit. In his last 10 games last year, including playoffs, he had 3 touchdowns, and only surpassed 100+ yards once. Granted, he was hurt, and he did have to face Darrelle Revis twice, but that’s not encouraging, especially at his age (he’ll be 32 in November) and with Pierre Garcon coming on as their #2 receiver. He should still be a solid WR1, but I don’t think he matches last year’s stats and I don’t think he’s quite a fantasy stud this year.

Tier 3

11. Larry Fitzgerald

8/24/10: Whether it be Leinart or Anderson, the Cardinals couldn’t do anything offensively against the Titans in their 2^nd preseason game. For what it’s worth, Leinart was worse, but they both sucked. With Leinart it was all checkdowns and underthrows and with Anderson it was a bunch of inaccurate overthrows. Fitzgerald is good, but he can’t throw the ball to himself. He also has a lingering knee injury and lingering injuries sapped a lot of his production last year. He may have issues reaching both 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. 

I think Fitzgerald is due for a down year. The last time Matt Leinart was the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, Fitz had 69 catches for 946 yards and 6 scores. Leinart may have gotten a little better since then, but I wouldn’t count on it. Leinart really struggled last season in limited action and even the Cardinals’ themselves aren’t sold on him. That’s why they signed Derek Anderson and have considered signing Marc Bulger. In Leinart’s one start last year, Fitz had 4 catches for 34 yards.

12. Marques Colston

7/30/10: Colston has been placed on the PUP/Active list after failing his conditioning test, following offseason knee surgery. This is his 3rd straight offseason with knee issues so there are concerns here. 

Colston is a boom or bust fantasy player on a weekly basis. He had 6 games of 50 or fewer yards last year, but also 6 games of 75 or more yards. He still ended up with 1000+ yards, but because of how many receivers New Orleans has, the title of Saints #1 receiver given to Colston doesn’t quite mean as much. He is inconsistent, but in every season he’s ever played more than 14 games, he’s had 1000 yards and at his size, 6-4, he should be his team’s primary goal line target.

13. Steve Smith (NYG)

8/10/10: Having Nicks opposite him does hurt him near the goal line, since Nicks is such an athletic goal line presence. Smith is still a lock for 100 receptions and 1000+ yards in my mind as their possession receiver and I love his consistency, but don’t expect him to get into the end zone very much this year. 

Steve Smith is very underrated. If you type “Steve Smith ESPN” into Google, Carolina receiver Steve Smith and retired Miami Heat guard Steve Smith come up before the Giants’ Steve Smith come up. Smith had 57 or more yards in every single game except for 2 last year. That’s consistency. However, there are reasons not to like him. He’s not a goal line threat at 5-11 with only 7 scores last year and with the emergence of 6-1 Hakeem Nicks as a receiver, that could actually go down this year. Smith only had 3 scores after week 5 last year. Coincidentally, week 5 is the week when Hakeem Nicks started getting more and more action. This year, he’s probably a starter and will take away, not only touchdowns, but receptions in general from Smith and Smith is not a YAC or YPC guy who can do a lot without a lot of targets.

14. Malcom Floyd

9/2/10: If Jackson has truly played his last game as a Charger, Floyd’s value goes up even more. He has certainly looked like a #1 receiver this preseason and could match Jackson’s 2009 numbers, 1167 yards and 9 scores. 

7/24/10: While Jackson is out, Floyd has even more time to build a bond with quarterback Phillip Rivers. If he doesn’t have 1000 yards this year, I would be shocked.  

7/9/10: I had him as a sleeper based on the potential that Jackson would get suspended. Now Floyd will be the Chargers #1 receiver for at least 3 weeks next year. This guy already had 34 catches for 525 yards in his 8 starts last year as their #2 receiver, now he has at least 3 weeks of being the #1 guy in that offense and 3 weeks of no Vincent Jackson to take away red zone looks. This guy is a major sleeper and could be a top 15 fantasy wide receiver if Jackson gets traded. 

Malcom Floyd broke out last year at age 28. He had 41 catches for 776 yards and 1 score. That 1 score looks like a fluke because he’s 6-5. I expect more touchdowns for him. Facing his first full season as a starter, 40 catches for 750 yards and 5 scores looks like the floor for him. His ceiling is a lot higher. In his last 8 games, after Chris Chambers’ release officially made him a starter, Floyd had 34 catches for 525 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1050 yards. Add in the fact that Vincent Jackson could be facing a 4 game suspension to start the season, making Floyd Phillip Rivers’ #1 receiver, and you’ve got yourself a fantasy sleeper.

15. Wes Welker

8/24/10: Good to see him in there and healthy. In fact, if I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed that this guy was ever in a freak injury accident week 17 last year. Leading the league in receptions last year despite missing 3 games with injury makes this guy a PPR god, and he’s pretty good in normal leagues too. 

7/24/10: Welker has been cleared for training camp, which pretty much guarantees that Welker, who tore two ligaments on his knee back in January, will be in the starting lineup week 1. For anyone who was smart and listened to me when I said he was my 19^th ranked wide receiver and got Welker in the 8^th, 9^th or 10^th round, congratulations. However, now that the cat’s out of the bag about Welker, he’s going to start going a lot earlier. You won’t be able to get him where you could before. Nonetheless, I do have to move him up even more. Assuming he’s close to 100% and doesn’t get hurt again, Welker, one of the toughest guys in the league, should be good for another 100 receptions and 1000 yards. He’s not a touchdown threat, but he’s a PPR god. This is the man who had 123 receptions for 1348 yards last year despite missing 2 games and most of a 3^rd with injuries. 

6/2/10: I wanted to make sure he was healthy (or healthy ish) before putting him on this list, but Welker did something that amazed me yesterday. He practiced. Less than 5 months after tearing his ACL and MCL and less than 4 months after major knee surgery, Welker was on the field at Patriot OTAs practicing at what reports call “75 percent.” ADP has Welker going as the 21th wide receiver off the board at somewhere around pick 56. I’m putting him at 19 because I think Welker is the type of guy who’s going to exceed expectations. He always does. He’s not an end zone threat, but this is a guy who missed 2 (really 3 because of that first quarterback knee injury week 17) games last year and still caught 123 balls for 1348 yards and 4 scores. I’ll take the chance on him before I take a chance on any of the other guys on this list below him.

Tier 4

16. Mike Sims-Walker

Sims-Walker was extremely inconsistent last year. He had 5 games of 30 yards or fewer, thought 6 games of 80 yards or greater. His inconsistencies appear excusable, thanks to injuries and Darrelle Revis and lack of playing time early on, but he may prove this year that he’s just overall an inconsistent guy. It doesn’t help that he’s playing in an inconsistent offense for an inconsistent team. All in all, I think he does better than the 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 scores he had last year, this year, assuming he stays healthy.

17. Anquan Boldin

8/24/10: Boldin only has 2 receptions in his first 2 preseason games and simply is not being targeted as much as Flacco’s longest tenured target, Derrick Mason. This could continue into the season, even though Boldin is more physically impressive. 

Anquan is now the main man in Baltimore, rather than Fitz’ two number in Arizona, so I think he sees an increase in percentage of targets, especially near the goal line. He only had 4 touchdowns last year, which is ridiculous for a 6-1 217 receiver, because Fitzgerald, at 6-3 222, has always been Arizona’s main goal line guy. That won’t be the case this year. However, Baltimore threw 84 fewer times than Arizona last year. One would think that Baltimore will throw more this year, with Joe Flacco maturing more in his 3^rd year, and with some actual deep threat receivers, but if they don’t, Boldin’s numbers could actually decrease across the board, with the exception of touchdowns. My best guess is that he’ll have similar catches, 84, and yards, 1024 than last year, with a few more touchdowns, but he could be a little better and a little worse than that, depending on how often the Ravens throw and how he adjusts to a new scheme and a new quarterback, which is not a given either.

Tier 5

18. Pierre Garcon

I am down on Wayne this year and up on Pierre Garcon. He had some injury issues late, but in the last 9 games he played, including the playoffs, he had 50 catches for 723 yards and 4 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 89 catches, 1285 yards, and 13 scores. He’s going into that magical 3^rd season breakout year (which for some reason never fails) and Wayne is getting older and struggled late last year. I am not guaranteeing a thousand yard season, but I think he very well could have 1000+ yards.

19. Michael Crabtree

Crabtree had everything go wrong for him last year (though most of that was his fault). He missed the first 5 games. He missed training camp so he didn’t practice the offense anywhere near enough before he played and he had to establish chemistry with Alex Smith in a pinch. He also was a rookie and rookie receivers, for the most part, struggle. Yet, he still had 48 catches for 625 yards and 2 scores. Even by adding in those 5 other games at his pace, you’d get 70 catches for 909 yards and 3 scores. However, I think he’ll increase the pace in his 2^nd year, with a greater understanding of the offense and his quarterback, as well as a greater comfortably having gone through his first training camp and not being thrown into action starting week 7. He’ll also increase in terms of touchdowns. He has good size at 6-1 214 and I don’t think Vernon Davis will vulture as many of his scores this year as he did last year. Expect 70-80 catches for 900-1000 yards and 5-7 scores. That makes him a borderline WR2.

20. Dwayne Bowe

Bowe has had a bad past few months. First he was suspended 4 games for performance enhancing drug use and never got back on terms with his team and his quarterback. Then, this month, he made some questionable comments that basically said his team would “import” woman to their hotel rooms on roadtrips. Now, we don’t have to jump to conclusions. Maybe they were being “imported” to make them sandwiches, but it certainly doesn’t look good for him or his team. All that being said, he’s his team’s most talented receiver and I expect him to be the #1 option next year. His quarterback is not very good, but this is the same guy who had 86 catches for 1022 yards and 7 scores in 2008 with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback. Hell, even Chris Chambers had 608 yards and 4 scores in 9 games as the #1 option last year. There’s always a chance that Chambers comes out as the #1 option or as a 1B option or that Dexter McCluster steals a good chunk of receptions. Weirder things have happened in Kansas City. However, I think Bowe has a good chance to get back to that 1000 yard mark, though he is a boom or bust type player.

21. Hakeem Nicks

8/10/10: Reports say Mario Manningham is likely to be the Giants new punt returner, which makes it less and less likely that Manningham is going to start over the 2^nd year Hakeem Nicks this year. Nicks is also getting the first team reps in training camp. My biggest concern with Nicks was not talent, but getting on the field, but I think it’s safe to say he’ll be their #2 receiver when the season starts. Nicks was tied with Percy Harvin for the lead in rookie receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last year despite not being a starter for most of the year so Nicks could approach 1000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns as his team’s main goal line threat. 

A lot to like and a lot not to like. Nicks actually was tied for the lead in rookie receiving yards with Harvin last year, despite not being a starter for most of the season. He’s probably going to be a starting receiver this year, with Mario Manningham in the slot. His frame at 6-1 makes him likely to be his team’s favorite goal line wideout and we’ve seen the success that receivers like big receivers like Plaxico Burress have had with Manning before. He’s a big YAC and YPC guy with 16.8 YPC last year and 18.0 YPC in his finale year in college, so he can do a lot without getting a ton of targets. In fact, he only had 71 targets all last year and still managed to get 790 yards. More than 50% of his yards (423) were in YAC. He also had 8 games of 4 of more catches in 14 games last year, very consistent for a rookie. However, YPC and YAC notoriously fluctuate somewhat from year to year. He’s also not even a lock to be a starter on his team.

22. Terrell Owens

8/19/10: Owens has definitely appeared the Batman to Ocho’s Robin, with 10 targets for 6 catches and 41 yards, as opposed to Ocho’s 3 targets for one 4 yard reception. I’m calling Owens the #1 guy in Cincinnati this year, though he’ll have plenty of other receivers to compete with. 

7/27/10: Owens has officially signed. It appears he will beat out the injury prone Antonio Bryant for a starting job and with a real quarterback this year, it wouldn’t be ridiculous to believe he could go for 900+ yards. Consider him a late WR2 or early WR3. 

The Rams are reportedly very interested in Terrell Owens. He remains a sleeper and a good value for now so I’d say draft him in the late rounds. He will have a rookie quarterback in Sam Bradford, but last year he had 829 yards and 5 scores on a crappy offensive team with a quarterback who didn’t have the arm strength to hit him deep. At least Bradford has a stronger arm than Trent Edwards or even Ryan Fitzpatrick, with whom he had a good bond with late. He could be a borderline WR3 this year. In 9 games where Fitzpatrick threw more than 20 passes, Owens had 534 yards and 4 scores. Stretch that over 16 games and you’ve got 949 yards and 7 scores. If he signs with the Rams, 800-900 yards and 5-7 scores isn’t crazy to expect.

23. Chad Ochocinco

8/19/10: Ochocinco has looked downright horrible in the preseason so far, looking significantly older and slower than Owens. There’s no doubt that Owens is the better receiver, at least now. That may change in a few weeks. 

7/27/10: I think Ocho and TO can coexist on the same team, but that doesn’t mean Ocho won’t have a decrease in production. Owens is better than Bryant, who would have been lining up across from him before. We saw what happened to Lee Evans after he teamed up with Owens last year. He had 405 fewer yards. Ochocinco is more talented than Evans and Carson Palmer is more talented than anyone Buffalo had at quarterback, but Ochocinco is far from a lock from 1000 yards anymore, especially with the addition of other guys like Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham to his offense around him.  

There are a few reasons not to like Chad Eight Five this year. The Bengals brought in a ton, and I mean a ton, of receivers this offseason, Antonio Bryant, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Shipley, Dezmon Briscoe, Matt Jones. That will take double teams away from Ocho, but you can’t argue that having a capable #2 a capable slot guy and a capable tight end in there is not going to cut down on his targets and I think that hurts him more than it helps him. He’s also 32 and not getting any younger. He should still get 60-80 catches, 1000+ yards and 8-10 scores, but he’s no lock any more.

24. Hines Ward

9/3/10: Ward has long been Big Ben’s favorite receiver so he of course gets a stock boost with Ben’s suspension getting cut. 

Hines Ward is due for a bad year. First, Big Ben is not going to start the first 6 games. In the 2 games Big Ben has missed over the last 4 years, Ward has a combined 8 catches for 100 yards and a score. Not exactly anything to get excited about. Ward is also 34 and will have a hard time keeping up the stats he had last year, which, in terms of catches and yards, were his 2^nd highest stats in his career. Before last year, he had only had 1 1000+ yard seasons in the last 4 and hadn’t had an 1100+ yard season since 2003, when he was 27. Ward also has a bad hamstring injury and hamstring injuries tend to linger longer than most.

25. Derrick Mason

8/24/10: Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.

Tier 6

26. Mike Wallace

9/3/10: An amazing player this preseason, Wallace gets his starting quarterback back 2 weeks earlier and thus is a great sleeper. He’s a WR2 when Ben’s in the lineup. 

Wallace is another boom or bust guy (as Nicks was before him and the next two after him will be). Wallace had 39 catches for 756 yards and 6 scores last year as a rookie and a slot receiver. He will be Pittsburgh’s #2 this year with Santonio Holmes. However, with any role change, there’s always some risk. He’ll have more targets, but also face more and better coverage and more and better attention from opposing defenses. Also, not having Big Ben and his big arm for 6 games to get him the ball downfield hurts. His 19.4 YPC is also pretty scary. YPC tend to fluctuate from year to year. I can’t imagine him keeping that up so he’ll probably have to catch significantly more balls to increase his yards.

27. Robert Meachem

Meachem was not the most consistent guy last year, with 6 games of 20 or fewer yards. A lot of that had to do with the fact that he was not a starter until midseason, but even when he was a starter, he was inconsistent, with 6 games of 2 or fewer catches after week 10, including playoffs. The Saints have way too many receivers to consider anyone other than Colston a safe WR2 bet. The only reason Meachem was a good fantasy option last year was he had 9 touchdowns, 7 in his last 9 games, but that’s no safe bet either. Touchdowns for receivers have a knack for being very inconsistent on a yearly basis and the fact that New Orleans has so many other good receivers doesn’t help with the inconsistencies.

28. Santana Moss

Moss has 790 or more yards in each of the last 7 years. Over this time, he has had Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell (age 35), Todd Collins, and Jason Campbell as his quarterbacks. Now he has Donovan McNabb. McNabb, overall is a better quarterback than any of those 6, and he has a significantly stronger arm than all 6 of those as well. This is going to allow Moss to get more deep bombs, increasing his pedestrian 14.9 YPC and allowing him to show off all of his natural 4.3 speed. He’s not a touchdown threat at 5-10, but he’s still a very talented player in a great position as McNabb’s #1 option and could very well have his 4^th career 1000+ yard season. It’s not like he hasn’t had one in a while. He had one just two years ago in 2008.

29. Jeremy Maclin

8/15/10: Maclin was the most targeted Eagles receiver when Kolb was in the game, a very good sign because I wasn’t sure how the talented 2^nd year receiver would mesh with his new quarterback, given his inexperience. 

Maclin ended last year strong with 50+ yards in each of his last 7 games and 40+ in each of his last 10 and one would expect him to get better in his 2^nd year. However, there’s no telling how he’ll adjust to a new quarterback. The downgrade from McNabb to Kolb could hurt him. Consider him a boom or bust guy.

30. Percy Harvin

8/29/10: When healthy, Harvin is the Vikings best receiver, now that Sidney Rice has gone down with a hip injury. It’s definitely a good sign that he has been practicing and now playing in games without issues and the news that doctors may have found a sort of cure for his migraines is great for his fantasy value. If healthy, he’s a strong WR2 with Rice out. 

8/19/10: After passing out at training camp, it’s become painfully obvious that Harvin is nowhere near ready for live NFL action. He remains a major health risk for this season and I can think of plenty of better things to do with a mid round pick than use it on Harvin. It is sad though, because he’s got plenty of talent. 

8/10/10: Harvin’s chronic migraines are looking like something that could be a major issue for him. He hasn’t practiced in over a week because of them and there appears to be no end in sight. If his migraines ever flared up like this in the season, like they did last year, he would miss games and that would hurt him. This looks like a very concerning situation for the 2^nd year receiver. 

8/6/10: Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages.

8/3/10: Downgrade at quarterback = less stats.  

Anyone who just watches ESPN and doesn’t know stats or Harvin would take a chance on Harvin way early than he should. ESPN loves Harvin because of his big play ability. However, the 2009 offensive rookie of the year only had 790 yards and 6 scores last year. He also had 135 yards rushing last year, but Minnesota has said they no longer play to use him in the wildcat, probably because they drafted wildcat quarterback Joe Webb in the 6^th. He also had 6 games of 41 or fewer yards and he has a very dubious injury history. 

If you’re expecting this tip to be about Gene Simmons and his giant tongue, you’re out of luck. KISS=Keep it simple stupid and it is a great tip for fantasy owners at this time of year. The NFL Preseason starts this week and people with upcoming fantasy drafts will be looking very closely. Every 20+ yard catch, every 20+ yard completion, every touchdown, every 15+ yard run is reason to move someone up your fantasy board. Right? Wrong. Preseason stats rarely matter. Save yourself some time and look at these 5 types of players this preseason. 

Guys coming back from injury: For these guys, the preseason does matter. These guys coming back from injury, however good they were before, have to prove themselves again before you can truly feel safe using an early pick on them, especially with running backs.

Guys who get injured: This one is obvious so I almost don’t have to put this down, but if a guy gets hurt in the preseason, so does his fantasy stock. Injury reports are our friends. Unless they are coming from Bill Belicheck, they are most likely accurate. There’s a big difference between a guy going out with a knee sprain and a guy going out with an ACL tear.

Rookies: While players coming back from injury have to prove themselves all over again, rookies have to prove themselves. Period.

Guys in position battles: Here you should not pay attention to the stats as much as who’s getting the reps on the field, especially during weeks 3 and 4. If a player gets a week 3 or week 4 start in the preseason, he’ll likely get the week 1 start. If you believe in the ability of a player who is trapped in a position battle, watch to see if he’s on the field a lot in the preseason. 

Guys you’ve never heard of: The preseason is a great time to see the abilities of players you’ve never heard of, for three reasons. One, they could get playing time this season if there’s an injury, allowing you to pick them up off of waivers, two, they could get playing time in future season and if you plan on playing fantasy football in the future its good to know the abilities of players that other drafters haven’t heard of, and three because if they’re getting preseason reps, they could win a starting job and if they do that, you could get them for cheaper in fantasy drafts because other drafters haven’t heard of them either.

Updated 9/3/10 

This top 15 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your TE1 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to tight ends 16 on, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 16th or 17th best tight end as your TE1. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.

Tier 1 

1. Antonio Gates

9/2/10: Gates will become even more involved in the Chargers offense with Jackson out, especially near the goal line. That’s enough to push him over the top and make him my #1 tight end. 

Antonio Gates led all tight ends in yards last year and was the 3^rd ranked tight end last year. I am not as sold on Vernon Davis as the places who say he’ll be the #1 tight end again (more on that in a moment) this year so Gates should be able to move to 2^nd this year.

2. Dallas Clark

Dallas Clark’s 100 reception, 1106 yard, 10 touchdown season last year may have come as a major surprise to some people, but not as much to me. Granted I didn’t know how good he could be, but Clark is a talented tight end in one of the best offenses in football. After his 77 catch, 848 yards 6 touchdown performance in 2008, it was not that hard to imagine him taking it to the next level. This year, nothing has changed. Clark is still a talented tight end in Indy’s high voltage offense and will remain a favorite target of Peyton Manning. I don’t think he’ll completely match what he did last year, but I would be very surprised if he didn’t come close.

3. Vernon Davis

Vernon Davis was the #1 fantasy tight end last year with 78 catches for 965 yards and a whooping 13 scores. However, I do not have him at #1 this year. The Niners will run the ball more this year. They drafted a big run blocking offensive tackle and a big run blocking offensive guard, so that’s pretty much adios to the spread offense. In the 5 games before Alex Smith took over and they started using more spread, Vernon Davis only had 22 receptions for 262 yards and 3 scores. That’s not bad, but at the same time, it’s not what he was in the spread. Also, those 13 touchdowns scare me. Touchdowns can be pretty inconsistent from year to year and if Vernon Davis had 2 less touchdowns last year, he would have been the 3^rd rated fantasy tight end. With Michael Crabtree maturing into more of a goal line threat this year, Davis could see a decrease in touchdowns. Also, Vernon Davis is not the most historically consistent guy. I know last year was a breakout year, but in his first 3 years, Davis had never had more than 52 catches and 4 scores. I have to see him be a top fantasy tight end for at least more than a year to make him my #1. Don’t expect a huge drop off in play from Davis this year, but don’t expect #1 fantasy tight end again. Only 12 points separated Davis and the #3 tight end Antonio Gates last year so a drop from 1^st to 3^rd is not hard to imagine.

Tier 2 

4. Brent Celek

Brent Celek was actually 4^th out of all fantasy tight ends last year with 76 receptions for 971 yards and 8 scores. Not Jason Witten. Not Tony Gonzalez. Brent Celek. Celek has only had one good year as a pro, but, unlike Vernon Davis, I have 3 reasons why that shouldn’t matter much. The first reason, unlike Vernon Davis, Celek hadn’t had a lot of playing time before last year. Celek didn’t improve in a huge way last year. He just got more playing time. For all we know, he could have always been this good. 2^nd reason, Kevin Kolb is now Philly’s quarterback. This assumed downgrade at quarterback should be bad for all of Philly’s receivers, except Kolb. In the two games Kolb started last year, Celek had 16 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown. I know that’s a small sample size, but it’s a sign of good things to come. 3^rd reason, there was actually a pretty big difference between 4^th and 5^th place last year. Celek had 137 points last year. Tony Gonzalez in 5^th has 117 points. That would be a big drop.

Tier 3 

5. Jason Witten

I’m moving Witten above Tony Gonzalez here, even though Gonzalez had more fantasy points last year. Witten only had 2 touchdowns last year. Touchdowns are traditionally one of the more inconsistent fantasy stats from year to year, especially for tight ends. Witten has never been much of a goal line threat, with a career high of 7 touchdowns, but I think he gets more than 2 next year. He’ll probably be closer to 4-5, which is about his career average. Witten has at least 80+ catches in each of the last 3 years and 1000+ yards in 2 of the last 3 yards. If he gets his touchdowns back up, he should surpass Tony Gonzalez in terms of fantasy points, especially when you consider that Gonzalez is 34 and could be due for a down year.

6. Tony Gonzalez

Tony Gonzalez is historically a top 2 or top 3 fantasy tight end and is certainly a future hall of famer. However, last year, he wasn’t. He wasn’t bad or anything as the 5^th rated fantasy tight end with 117 fantasy points, but he wasn’t his old self, whether it be because of age (he was 33 last year) or playing in a new offense for a new team for the first time in his career. This year, at age 34, I don’t expect him to get any better. He’ll probably be overdrafted in your league based off of his past and his name, but don’t expect much more than 80 catches 800 yards and 6 touchdowns.

7. Zach Miller

Jason Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends. In his first 2 years with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Chris Cooley had yards totals of 786 and 849, both of which were career highs at the time. He only managed 1 touchdown in 2008, but with 8 the year before it’s safe to say 2008 was a fluke in terms of touchdowns. In 2009, despite leaving midway through his 7^th game with an injury and going down for the season, Cooley still had 29 catches for 332 yards and 2 scores. In 2009, despite not playing extensively until Cooley got hurt midway through his 7^th game, Fred Davis had 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores. Combine those stats with Cooley’s and Washington tight ends had 77 catches for 841 yards and 8 scores last year. Not bad. With Jason Campbell now in Oakland, Zach Miller figures to have a great year. Miller is as talented, if not more talented than Davis and Cooley. In his last 2 years, despite playing with an ugly mix of JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Zach Miller has averaged 61 catches and 792 yards per season. With Jason Campbell at quarterback now, he has a chance to approach 900 yards. Zach Miller has never been much of a touchdown threat, but that’s not really his fault. He may only have 4 touchdowns over the last 2 years, but that’s because the Raiders have only had 23 receiving touchdowns over the last 2 years. In fact, Miller was actually 2^nd on the team in touchdowns last year with 3. Now that they have a quarterback who can actually lead and complete drives to the end zone, Miller should be more in that 5-7 range. At 6-5, you’d figure he’d be their best goal line threat.

Tier 4 

8. Jermichael Finley

7/30/10: With Driver hurt, Finley also stands to improve. He’s a tight end and will get a lot of the possession receptions that Driver won’t. He’s also healthy despite there being some questions about his health in the offseason. 

Jermichael Finley was the 13^th rated tight end last year, which is actually pretty impressive considering he missed 3 games with injury and he wasn’t even a starter until week 4. I can’t guarantee his health, his knee is reportedly still bothering him and keeping him out of OTAs, but if he is healthy, he’ll play. Take the stats he had in his 10 starts last year and stretch them across 16 games, and you have 78 catches for 982 yards and 8 touchdowns. There’s some serious upside here.

9. Kellen Winslow 

Josh Freeman has reportedly been putting in a ton of work this offseason, which is really a good thing because he needed a lot of work after his rookie year. However, Freeman’s wideouts are less than stellar. His top returning receiver is slot receiver Sammie Stroughter and he has two talented, but raw rookie receivers in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn. Winslow is going to be getting plenty of targets next year and if Josh Freeman steps it up at quarterback, Winslow could have a very strong year next year, even better than the 77 catches for 884 yards and 5 scores he had last year. The only big issue, he just had “minor” knee surgery. This might not be an issue if it wasn’t the 5^th time in 6 years that right knee has been operated on.

10. Visanthe Shiancoe

8/24/10: With the 6-4 Rice out of there, Shiancoe will continue to be Favre’s favorite end zone target. He should get double digit scores again and should also be more involved in the passing game between the 20s as well. 

8/6/10: Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages. 

8/3/10: Downgrade at quarterback = less stats. Favre also made their offense a lot more potent and scored more touchdowns through the air. Shiancoe benefited with 11 scores. However, the 7 he had in 2008 seems more likely for him this year. 

Visanthe Shiancoe was actually the 6^th rated tight end last year. However, much of his success was because he caught 11 touchdowns. He only had 56 catches for 566 yards. Do you really want to bet that he’ll do that again? He could, but then again, 6-4 Sidney Rice could also steal more of his end zones targets. Also, if Brett Favre retires, Shiancoe becomes barely startable. In 2008, Shiancoe had 42 catches for 596 yards and 7 scores. There’s definitely some downside here.

11. Greg Olsen

I had Greg Olsen as a potential top 5 tight end last year. That didn’t happen, he was 10^th, but I’m not giving up on him this year. Jay Cutler loves to throw to his tight ends. In Cutler’s last two years in Denver, tight end Tony Scheffler had a total of 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 scores. For comparison’s sake, he had 31 catches for 416 and 2 scores last year with Kyle Orton. Cutler is now in his 2^nd year in Chicago, with Chicago’s receivers, and that can only help Olsen this year. Also, Mike Martz is now Chicago’s offensive coordinator, so Chicago should be throwing a bit more this year, also a good thing for Olsen. Olsen is the type of vertical threat tight end that is built to succeed in Martz’ scheme. He’s also only 25 so the former 1^st rounder probably hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Expect him to increase the 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores he has last year.

Tier 5 

12. Owen Daniels

9/2/10: Daniels has been activiated from the PUP list and looks likely to start the season opener. There are definitely no guarantees that he will play all 16 games, but he’s very talented when healthy so he could be worth the risk as a TE1.

We’ve seen how good he is when he’s healthy. Daniels had 70 catches for 862 yards and 2 scores in 2008. However, he’s already torn his ACL 3 times. I’m no doctor, but that’s not good. The Texans wouldn’t have drafted 3 tight ends (4 if you count Dorin Dickerson, though he’s probably a receiver or fullback longterm) in the last 2 years, if they were completely sold on his health. At the same time, they wouldn’t have given him a 1^st/3^rd tender if they didn’t like his talent when healthy. This is a serious boom or bust pick and if you draft Daniels, you should probably draft another solid tight end to pair with him.

13. Heath Miller

9/3/10: Moving Ben’s TE up as well. Miller had a breakout year last year and is vastly underrated this year. 

Last year, I had Heath Miller as a sleeper and he delivered with a career high 76 catches for a career high 789 yards and 6 scores. This year, I’m not so optimistic. The drop off from Ben Roethlisberger to either Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon for 6 games is going to be a significant one. 

14. John Carlson

John Carlson had pretty solid stats last year for someone often used as a blocker. This year, the Seahawks have signed Chris Baker to take care of more of the blocking, and they drafted Russell Okung in the first so their line shouldn’t be as bad. Carlson will be free to run more routes and catch more balls in his 3^rd year in the league.

15. Jermaine Gresham

I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end next year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option. 

QB RB WR TE DEF Top 100

1. Antonio Gates (San Diego)

Antonio Gates had 50 catches for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, good enough for 2^nd among tight ends. The kicker, he did it in 10 games. Over 16 games, that’s 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. I’m not going to predict that for several reasons. For one, no tight end does that. Hell, no wide receivers do that. Two, he’s still hurting and he’s no lock to play 16 games. In fact, I’d bet he won’t. Also, Vincent Jackson is back and that will cut into his targets, especially in the end zone. Vincent Jackson being out was a huge part of the reason why he had 10 touchdowns in 10 games.

Projection: 67 catches, 1030 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (169 pts, 236 PPR)

2. Jason Witten (Dallas)

Witten has at least 80 catches for at least 950 yards in each of the last 4 seasons and at least 94 catches for 1000 yards in 3 of the last 4. Tony Romo and Jason Garrett, the new Cowboys coach, loves him, just ask Terrell Owens. He’s not a huge end zone threat, though he did have 9 touchdowns in 2010, but he’s still one of the top tight ends in the league.

Projection: 90 catches, 1010 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (137 pts, 227 PPR)

3. Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

Stability at the quarterback position, as well as a better offensive coach, should improve the 56 catches for 914 yards he had in 2010. I’m not sure about his 7 touchdowns though, however. Braylon Edwards has been brought in and he’s a great goal line guy. I don’t know if there’s enough touchdowns to go around for Davis to have a high touchdown season like he did in 2009 (13).

Projection: 62 catches, 950 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (137 pts, 199 PPR)

4. Owen Daniels (Houston)

8/28/11: The case for Owen Daniels: In 2007, his 2^nd season in the league, he caught 63 passes for 768 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2008, he caught 70 passes for 862 yards and 2 touchdowns. In 2009, he caught 40 passes for 519 yards and 5 touchdowns in 8 games before tearing his ACL. Stretch that over 16 games and you get 80 catches for 1038 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, he came back too quickly from his ACL tear, struggled for 7 games and then missed 5 before finishing strong. In his final 4 games, he caught 22 passes for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 88 catches for 1084 yards and 8 touchdowns.

The Texans rely heavily on the tight end. In Daniels absence last season, career backup Joel Dressen caught 19 passes for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns in 5 games. Combine that with Daniels’ stats from his final 5 games and you get 41 catches for 546 yards and 4 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 72 catches for 971 yards and 7 touchdowns. Daniels should be the #2 option in Houston behind Andre Johnson and, by all indications, is due for a huge season should he play 16 games.

He’s healthy now and seems to have put that ACL tear behind him. The Texans gave him a 4 year deal in the offseason and say they plan to feature him a lot in their offense. In the Texans’ 3^rdpreseason game, Daniels was targeted a team high 8 times by Schaub. He’s healthy, he’s talented, and he’s a popular target of Schaub. There’s definitely upside here and I’d say he’s more likely to play 16 games than he is to miss a game.

I’m going to be conservative with his projection. I’d say he gets slightly better than 72 catches for 971 yards and 7 touchdowns should he play all 16 games. Remember, in 2009, he was on pace for 80 catches 1000+ yards and 10 touchdowns. In the last 4 games of last season, he was on pace for similar numbers. Hell, the Houston tight end spot in the last 9 games of last season (4 games of Daniels, 5 games of Dressen) was close to those numbers. I’d say 75 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns should he stay healthy, but I’m going to be conservative and say he plays 15 games. That still makes him my #4 tight end. 

Owen Daniels is great when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been for the past 2 years. In 2008, he had 70 catches for 862 yards and 2 touchdowns. In 2007, he had 63 catches for 768 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are the kinds of thing he can do when healthy. However, he’s a risk and I expect the Texans to be pass less this year with an improved defense and running game.

Projection: 70 catches, 940 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (136 pts, 206 PPR)

5. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Jermichael Finley was really on his way to breaking out as an elite tight end last year with 21 catches for 301 yards and 1 touchdown through 4 games before getting hurt. He’s still not quite 100%, but he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him so it might not matter. I think he’ll still be a very, very good tight end this year.

Projection: 65 catches, 950 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (125 pts, 190 PPR)

6. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

In the 2^nd half last year, Graham had 26 catches for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns in 8 games. Over 16, that’s 52 catches for 604 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now he’s actually the starter with Jeremy Shockey gone. His upside is off the charts.

Projection: 60 catches, 700 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (118 pts, 178 PPR)

7. Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)

8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Dallas Clark’s fantasy value. I think Clark will be hurt the most. Reggie Wayne still had very good numbers in the first half of 2008, though he is older now. Austin Collie is very, very talented player. Clark, however, had just 31 catches for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first half in 2008 and that was without having Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stealing targets. 

8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers. 

Dallas Clark had 100 catches for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2009 and was on his way to another great season in 2010. He had 37 catches for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns through 6 games before getting hurt. He’ll be back this season and I wouldn’t worry too much about him because of how stable his quarterback position is. I don’t know if he’ll be 2009 good, but he’ll be good.

Projection: 70 catches, 800 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (116 pts, 186 PPR)

8. Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Aaron Hernandez was the tight end to own in New England to start the year, but Gronkowski changed that. In the 2^nd half, he had 28 catches for 398 yards and 7 touchdowns, good for 56 catches for 796 yards and 14 touchdowns over 16 games. However, he does worry me. The Patriots have so many options, including Aaron Hernandez at Gronkowski’s own position. Plus, his touchdown to reception rate was really high. That could fall, especially with Chad Ochocinco coming in.

Projection: 50 catches, 680 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (116 pts, 166 PPR)

9. Benjamin Watson (Cleveland)

8/21/11: Any stock up for McCoy is a stock is up for Watson, who was his favorite target last season. Little and Watson seem to be his best two targets by far so both have fantasy value.  

Watson caught 30 balls for 385 yards and a score in Colt McCoy’s 8 starts last year. Over 16 games, that’s 60 catches for 770 yards and 2 touchdowns. McCoy will be better in his 2^nd year so Watson have some fantasy value, but he doesn’t get into the end zone very often.

Projection: 67 catches, 770 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns (101 pts, 168 PPR)

10. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Brandon Pettigrew had 71 catches for 780 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. Matt Stafford is coming in so Pettigrew’s numbers should go up, especially his touchdowns, right? Wrong. In the 3 games Stafford played last year, Pettigrew was targeted 12 times (4 per game) and caught 6 passes (2 per game). In his other 13 games, he was targeted 91 times (7 per game) and caught 65 passes (5 per game). His touchdowns will be higher with Stafford back as he had 2 touchdowns in 3 games with Stafford, but his other stats will be down. Stafford just doesn’t check down like Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did. 

Projection: 50 catches, 580 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (94 pts, 144 PPR)