Updated 8/31/10 

This top 15 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your QB1 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to quarterbacks 16-32, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 16th or 17th best quarterback as your QB1. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.

Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers

Bye week 10

Aaron Rodgers was the most productive fantasy quarterback last year in regular leagues with 327 points. Not, Drew Brees, not Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers. He did this even though he was sacked 51 times. However, after Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher came back after 8 games, Rodgers only took 14 sacks. Clifton and Tauscher are back for this year and they drafted Bryan Bulaga in the first so if one of either Clifton and Tauscher go down again, Rodgers won’t get destroyed again. In his last 8 games, Rodgers was 186 for 281 (66.2%) for 2179 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Spread that over a year, 16 games, and he’s 372 for 562 for 4458 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 4 picks. With all of the offensive weapons he has at his disposal, I think he gets close to those numbers, and that should be more than enough to be the #1 fantasy quarterback again this year. Another thing to like about Rodgers, he also had 316 yards for 5 touchdowns on the ground last year. That’s more fantasy points on the ground than the next three guys on this list had combined.

Tier 2

2. Drew Brees

Bye week 10

While Aaron Rodgers was the top fantasy quarterback in the league last year and shouldn’t give up his throne this year, but Drew Brees is certainly not a bad 2^nd option. Brees had 280 fantasy points last year, which doesn’t seem anywhere near close to Rodgers, but remember Brees only had 15 starts last year. He sat out week 17 last week to get himself some rest for the playoffs and if he starts 16 games this year, he certainly could be a 300 fantasy pointer, though that is a pretty large if. And if he’s closer to the 635 attempts he had in 2008 than the 514 attempts he had in 2009, look out, he could give Rodgers a run for his money.

3. Peyton Manning

Bye week 7

I don’t think I even need to say anything here. Manning is Mr. Consistency so you should know what to expect from him. Manning actually was the 4^th rated fantasy quarterback last year with 272 points, behind Brett Favre and his 274. However, Favre is getting up there in age so I don’t think he’ll be quite what he was last year, if he even returns, and also, Manning essentially only had 14 starts last year because he was benched midway through both of their week 16 and week 17 losses for rest reasons. Unless the Colts are 14-0 at week 16 again this year, which I find unlikely based solely on how hard that is to do once, let alone twice in a row, Manning will have to play a little more and that should be enough to launch him into 3^rd.

4. Tony Romo

Bye week 4

Tony Romo struggled a bit in his first 4 games last year, but that was because his receivers weren’t playing that great. After Miles Austin stepped up week 5, Romo was 271 of 419 for 3493 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 5 picks. Spread that over 16 games, and you have 361 of 559 for 4657 yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 picks. That’s pretty good. Add in rookie receiver Dez Bryant, who is reportedly doing excellent in rookie camp, as much as that means, and I think it’s very possible he has that dominant of a fantasy season. Miles Austin won’t be able to be double covered this year, at least nowhere near as much as he was last year. You can’t back off of Dez Bryant, and they have Jason Witten over the middle. Plus, maybe this is the year Roy Williams finally plays well in Dallas and they have Patrick Crayton was is decent and certainly better than your average #4 receiver, plus solid pass catchers out of the backfield. Romo has amazing weapons around him and the talent to get the most out of them. I don’t think he’s too far out of the top 3 at all and he’d be a very solid pick in the late 20s, meaning mid 3^rd round in 12 team leagues and late 3^rd in 10 teams league, if you miss out on one of the top guys.

Tier 2.5 (not a huge dropoff, but a fairly decent sized one)

5. Tom Brady

Bye week 5

Tom Brady was actually the 7^th rated fantasy quarterback last year, but with 261 points, it’s not like he was that far back. Brady had a ton of injuries last year. Whether it be the torn ACL he was trying to recover from or the broken finger he suffered, or the bruised ribs, he just wasn’t healthy. With an offseason to recover from all of those things, he should be slightly better this year, and that slightly better should be enough to bring him from 7^th to the 275 fantasy points he’ll need to be in 5^th. Losing Wes Welker will hurt him, but remember he was a very good fantasy quarterback before his team traded for Wes Welker, and he has two talented rookie tight ends coming in, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Pats also signed him Torry Holt, a solid #2 option who has averaged 700 yards a year over the past 2 years despite playing with mediocre quarterbacks. Brady also has a motivated Randy Moss, as he is in his contract year, and that’s just something he didn’t have much, if ever, last year. Julian Edelman is also a very solid 2^nd year slot receiver. And if Welker is ready for the start of the season, that’s just the icing on top of the cake, and I may consider moving Brady as high as 3.

6. Matt Schaub

Bye week 7

Schaub had more fantasy points than both Romo and Brady last year, but only 2 more than Romo and 8 more than Brady so it’s nothing to get too excited about. With Brady healthier this year and with Romo’s receiving corps even better than they were late last year, I think they surpass Schaub. Also, injuries are still an issue here. Injuries are very tough to predict. However, last season was the only year he’s ever started 16 games. It’s not a stretch to say that he’s more likely to miss 1-4 games this year than the 5 guys above him on this list. That being said, Schaub still threw for 4770 yards 29 touchdowns and 15 picks last year, so he’s nothing to overlook. You definitely should not be concerned if you end up with him as your QB1.

7. Phillip Rivers

Bye week 10

8/12/10: Talks between left tackle Marcus McNeill and the Chargers are far from close. In fact, many reports say they do not even exist. The Chargers are not willing to pay McNeill what he wants and some, such as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee believe it is a foregone conclusion that McNeill will not report before week 1. Rivers already had Vincent Jackson suspended for 3 weeks and possibly holding out for longer. McNeill is not a Pro Bowl caliber left tackle in my opinion, but he’s in the top 15 in the NFL so this is a huge loss for the Chargers and a huge loss for Philip Rivers, whose blindside all of a sudden looks very, very vulnerable with Brandyn Dombrowski at left tackle rather than McNeill.

Rivers had 258 fantasy points last year, a very solid number, and I think he can improve on that this year. The Chargers averaged 3.3 YPC on the ground last year. It’s not completely crazy to think that rookie Ryan Matthews can average .5-.9 YPC higher than LT (who somehow had 223 carries last year). This will open up the passing game for Rivers even more and because Matthews is a rookie, I don’t think it will really cut down on Rivers’ attempts as much as adding a talented veteran running back would. They want to keep Matthews healthy long term. Given all that, 4400 yards is not a huge stretch for him this season.

8. Brett Favre

Bye week 4

8/24/10: The reason Favre had a career year at age 40 last year, probably had something to do with the fact that he was working with one of his more talented receiving corps. With Rice out and Harvin also nowhere near game ready, those receiving corps don’t look as great. 

8/19/10: Favre is coming back so it’s safe to call him my 7^th ranked quarterback, which he would have been had there been no threat of retirement. I’m convinced Favre will play until someone doesn’t want him anymore, skipping training camp every time.

8/6/10: Before the retirement that wasn’t, I had Brett Favre as my 7^th rated quarterback because I think he will produce the 7^th most fantasy points for a quarterback this year and I was sure he’d come back. However, though I still think he will produce the 7^th most fantasy points for a quarterback if he plays, there is still a slight chance he doesn’t. I have decided I’d rather have Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco before Favre, just because I like to know that I’m getting a sure thing and those 4 guys really aren’t going to be that much worse than Favre this year. So Favre is back up, just not all the way back up. 

Tier 3

9. Jay Cutler

Bye week 8

Whereas McNabb probably won’t be as good as he was last year, Cutler probably won’t be worse than he was last year and for that reason, I had a very tough choice between McNabb and Cutler for my 8^th rated quarterback. I went with McNabb simply because he’s more of a proven quarterback. However, Cutler is in his 2^nd year in Chicago’s offense, with Chicago’s receivers, so I think because of the familiarity, he’ll be better this year. In fact, he went 42 for 71 for 549 yards, 8 touchdowns, and one pick in his last two games last season, a promising, albeit small, sign of good things to come. The Bears didn’t do a ton to help Cutler’s supporting cast, at least on the offensive side, with the exception of Chester Taylor, but they didn’t address the offensive line and their receiving corps, which were not very good last year. However, adding in the familiarity and the addition of Chester Taylor, I think he can increase his YPA from 6.6 to 6.9 or so. Factor in the fact that, in their new Mike Martz offense, Cutler will probably get about 600 passing attempts. 6.9 YPA at 600 attempts is about 4140 yards. His touchdowns will also increase, but I don’t think his interceptions will fall. Mike Martz’ quarterbacks are notoriously INT prone. I’m saying 30 touchdowns and 25 picks. If he stays healthy, I really don’t think he will have fewer fantasy points than he had last year.

10. Joe Flacco

Bye week 8

Joe Flacco is one of favorite, if not my favorite sleeper for this year. I will publish a list of fantasy sleepers in the coming weeks, but you can bet that Flacco will be on that list. Flacco’s going into his 3^rd year, which alone could lead to an improvement. However, the Ravens have also added Anquan Boldin, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, David Reed, and Donte Stallworth to the receiving corps. First of all, this means that the Ravens are going to be passing a lot more next year. They wouldn’t focus this much on the passing game if they weren’t planning on passing more. We should see Flacco’s attempts go up from 499 to 520-540. With the improved passing game and the fact that he’s now going into his 3^rd year and more improved this year, it’s not crazy to think his YPA could go up to 7.5. 520 attempts, which is on the low side of the estimation, multiplied by 7.5, is 3900 yards. His touchdowns should also go up, from 21 to 22-25, and I think his picks should stay stable at 11-14.

11. Donovan McNabb

Bye week 9

8/31/10: McNabb’s ankle could keep him out of the first regular season game. 

I know he’s my 8^th rated quarterback, and he will be similarly rated on most boards, but I wouldn’t draft Donovan McNabb in most cases. There’s a huge difference between my 7^th rated quarterback, Rivers, and my 9^th rated quarterback. Rivers should be good for 255-265 points. McNabb had 223 points last year and is going to a new scheme, with a less talented supporting cast, and don’t forget he is on the wrong side of 30, so another year isn’t helping him. I would be very surprised if he surpassed that 223 mark this year. Those 40 or so points worse than Rivers that McNabb should be about 20-30 picks. However, after Rivers goes off the board, teams worried because they don’t have a strong quarterback can get trigger happy and reach for either Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, most likely McNabb because of the name and how he is ranked in most rankings. Don’t be that guy, even if he is the 9^th best quarterback. Just wait for Cutler or Manning, although they possibly could be over drafted in most leagues too for similar reasons, or better yet my favorite mid round sleeper, Joe Flacco, or even other sleepers I like, Carson Palmer or Jason Campbell.

Tier 4

12. Carson Palmer

Bye week 6

7/27/10: Palmer’s got to be thrilled with the addition of Owens. He’s an upgrade as a deep threat over Bryant and the type of player they needed last year. In the 8 games Chris Henry played last year, Palmer was 160 for 258 for 1832 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretch that over 16 games, and Palmer is 320 for 516 for 3664 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 picks. Now consider that Owens is an upgrade over Henry and they also added guys like Jermaine Gresham and Bryant and Jordan Shipley to the mix and that Palmer is another year removed from surgery and Palmer’s actually a decent QB1. He’s a huge value pick in the late rounds.  

Carson Palmer is actually a very intriguing buy low option this year. Trust me; I know he wasn’t good last year. He was my QB1 for most of last year. I can’t tell you how frustrated I was with him some weeks. He almost cost me my league (key word almost). However, he’s not going to be worse than the 198 point quarterback he was last year. In fact, 210-220 is not unreasonable to expect of him at all. Look at all the weapons Cincinnati has given him this offseason. Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Shipley, Dezmon Briscoe, all of these guys will help. In the 8 games Chris Henry played last year, Palmer was 160 for 258 for 1832 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretch that over 16 games, and Palmer is 320 for 516 for 3664 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 picks. We’ve seen what he can do with a good, balanced receiving corps, and now he has one. Add in the fact that he’s now another offseason removed from his elbow injury and he could very well approach those stretched out numbers.

13. Eli Manning

Bye week 8

Despite the Giants 8-8 record, Eli Manning was solid last year, as the 11^th rated fantasy quarterback with 220 points. The Giants offense hasn’t changed much and I expect very similar numbers this year from Eli. If anything is different in terms of his numbers, it’s going to be negative because Eli had a career year last year. However, expect 210-220 points from him this year and that should be good enough for 12^th on this list. He’s a borderline QB1, depending on the amount of teams in your league.

14. Jason Campbell

Bye week 10

Normally going to Oakland is the equivalent of multiple shoulder injuries for a quarterback, but I like Jason Campbell as a sleeper for next year. Campbell had a decent year last year, with 203 fantasy points, despite playing in a scheme that he didn’t fit at all in Washington. Oakland doesn’t have a good supporting cast on offense, but then again neither did Washington. I actually think Campbell can have a solid year this year in Oakland. He is a former 1^st rounder who has never officially busted. He’s actually quietly increased his QB rating every year of his 4 year career and has never had a QB rating as a starter less than 77.6, despite changing coordinators almost every year and never playing in a scheme that maximizes his strong arm, like Oakland’s can.

15. Kevin Kolb

Bye week 8

Kolb is the wild card here. He only has 2 career starts. He could be much higher on this list at the end of the year, he could be much lower on this list at the end of the year. If you want to take a risk on him, be my guest, but make sure you draft a good backup too.

QB RB WR TE DEF Top 100

Why do I only rank the top 15? I do this because no one really plays in leagues of more than 14 or so players so these are the only players you should be considering as QB1s. As for QB2s, that’s another whole article. More on that later.

1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In 14 and a half games last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 3922 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Spread that out over 16 games, and you get 4328 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, which might even be an underestimate based off of how well this guy played down the stretch and into the playoffs last year.

In the 2^nd half (6.5 games) and the playoffs (4 games), he threw for 3005 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 4 picks. Spread that over 16 games and you get 4579 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. If he plays 16 games, I think he gets somewhere in between 4328-4579 yards, 31-38 touchdowns, and 6-12 interceptions.

On top of this, he is mobile with rushing totals of 207 yards, 316 yards, and 356 yards in his first 3 years in the league, as well as 4, 5, and 4 rushing touchdowns. The issue is health. He plays a style of football that leads to a lot of injuries and though he’s tough and can play well injured, there are certainly no guarantees he plays 16 games.

Projection: 4400 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 2 fumbles (345 pts standard, 411 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

2. Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

8/26/11: The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Vick’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%. Normally I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Vick is being drafted as high as the top 5 as a quarterback. This has to be worrisome. 

Michael Vick was the leading fantasy scorer at quarterback last year despite missing 4 and a half games with injury. He’ll surely be the top fantasy scorer at quarterback this year, right? Not so fast. Vick really slowed down late last year. Teams were finally figuring out how to slow him down.

In his last 7 games, including the playoffs, he had 1960 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 367 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 4480 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 839 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns. However, keep in mind, he’s only played 16 games once in his career. He’s a smaller quarterback who takes a lot of hits. He won’t be healthy for 16 games. I’d say 14 games is a reasonable estimate for him.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 700 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns, 5 fumbles (322 pts standard, 366 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

3. Tom Brady (New England)

Tom Brady played some of the best and most efficient football ever seen down the stretch last year, becoming the league’s first unanimous MVP, before it all came to a crashing halt against the Jets. In his final 7 games, he threw for 1875 yards, 20 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Spread out of 16 games, that’s 4286 yards, 46 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He’ll throw some picks next year, but with his two rookie tight ends now in their 2^nd season, one could expect those numbers to even increase.

There are a few issues. One, the Jets wrote the book on how to stop this Patriots offense in their playoff win. It’s unclear whether they were simply the first team to have the personnel to play in a way that can stop the Patriots or whether they were the first team to figure out if you clog the middle and leave their outside receivers one on one with your cornerbacks, it disrupts what they try to do.

I think it was a little bit of both. Not every team is going to have Cromartie and Revis on the outside to stick one on one on the Patriots’ outside receivers, but teams will try to do what the Jets did last year against the Patriots. This is a copycat league. Fortunately for Brady, Belichick is great at making offensive adjustments. Unfortunately for Brady, they won’t have a full offseason, thanks to the lockout, to make those adjustments.

Projection: 4200 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 fumble (311 pts standard, 387 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

4. Tony Romo (Dallas)

There are several reasons to like Romo this year. One, he’s healthy. Before last year’s injury, he had played all 16 games in 3 of his past 4 seasons. Two, he was playing great fantasy wise in his first 5 games last year before getting hurt, throwing for 1566 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretched across 16 games, that’s 5011 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions.

Third, his coach is now Jason Garrett. Garrett was able to turn Jon Kitna into a passable fantasy option late last year. In 6 and a half games last year under Garrett, Kitna threw for 1616 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Across 16 games, that’s 4650 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. I think that might be Romo’s floor if he stays healthy this year.

Fourth, their offensive line is much improved with Tyron Smith at right tackle. Fifth, their defense and running game are still a mess so he’ll throw a lot. Their defense actually got worse once Wade Phillips was fired and Garrett took over. Plus, it’s not like Romo is a stranger to throwing 4000+ yards, throwing 4211 in 2007 and 4483 in 2009. The only issue with him is his tendency to struggle around fantasy playoff time.

Projection: 4650 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (280 pts standard, 342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

5. Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

In his 2^nd year, Freeman threw for 3451 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, making him the 7^th rated quarterback in fantasy. Even more impressive was that he got better as the year went on. In the 11 games where LeGarrette Blount got 10+ carries (week 7 on), Freeman threw for 2408 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 3 picks. Over 16 games, that’s 3503 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He also threw for at least 237 yards in each of his final 4 games. The only issue is he’ll have a stronger schedule this year and handle high expectations for the first time in his career.

Projection: 3600 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 6 fumbles (267 pts standard, 321 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

6. Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Like Manning, Brees had a down year in 2010 with 4620 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions. However, if you ignore those 22 interceptions, that’s a very good year. If he can get that interception total down into the mid teens, he could definitely be a top 5 fantasy quarterback again. That interception total was his career high by 4.

Between a Super Bowl hangover, a lack of a running game, and a bad knee, his down year was definitely explainable. He won’t have any of those 3 things this year, though a stronger running game with Mark Ingram could cut his attempts from 658, which he had in 2010, a career high. Expect his attempts to be closer to the 514 he had in 2009 with a better running game, but also his YPA to be closer to the 8.5 he had in 2009 than the 7.0 he had in 2010.

Projection: 4550 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 10 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 7 fumbles (263 pts standard, 325 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

7. Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Rivers threw a career high 541 times last year after totals of 460, 460, 478, and 486 in his first 4 years as a starter and became a top 5 fantasy quarterback because of this. A lot of this had to do with an unreliable running game and a team that struggled to stay around .500.

With a healthy Ryan Mathews, they should run better this year and they can’t possible have worse special teams play this year than they had last year so that number should drop down to around 500. However, his YPA totals from his past 3 years are 8.4, 8.8, and 8.7 so he’ll make the most of his 500 or so attempts, all while limiting his interceptions. His 13 interceptions last year were a 3 year high.

Projection: 4300 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 4 fumbles (262 pts standard, 230 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

8. Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Matt Ryan has improved as a fantasy quarterback every season in his 3 year career, ranking 8^th last year. I expect him to continue to improve in his 4^th year as he finally has someone other than Roddy White to throw to. Whether or not you agree with their decision to move up 21 spots to take Julio Jones 6^th, there’s no denying the impact that Julio Jones has on their offense will be a positive one.

Projection: 3800 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 110 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 3 fumbles (257 pts standard, 317 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

9. Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

Bradford had a great rookie year, but wasn’t a great fantasy player. However, there are three reasons why the latter will change this year. One, he’s no longer a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks always struggle, but Bradford didn’t. Two, his receiving corps will be better after they spent 2^nd-4^th round picks on receivers.

Three, he has a new offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into 3600+ yard and 21+ touchdown passers. Bradford could easily throw for 4000 yards in this scheme.

Projection: 4050 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (241 pts standard, 291 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

10. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

In 12 games last year, Roethlisberger threw for 3200 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 5 picks. If you spread that over 16 games, that’s very impressive, but he’s only once played a full 16 game season in his career. Still, spread that over 15 games and you get 4000 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. You take that out of a QB1. The only potential downside is that the 2 worst seasons of his career came the year after making the Super Bowl, though we have yet to see how he responds after losing the Super Bowl.

Projection: 3950 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 150 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 fumbles (241 pts standard, 281 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

11. Matt Schaub (Houston)

Matt Schaub threw 583 times in 2009 and 574 times in 2010. I expect that number to be lower this season. Not only does Houston finally have a good running game with Arian Foster and 2010 2^nd round pick Ben Tate healthy to fall back on, Houston’s defense will be better this year with Kareem Jackson in his 2^nd year, the additions of JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, Brandon Harris, Johnathan Joseph, and Danieal Manning, as well as a healthy DeMeco Ryans and Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. I expect Schaub to throw around 550 times this year instead so his yards will decrease.

Projection: 4250 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 5 fumbles (231 pts standard, 277 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

12. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)

8/25/11: Peyton Manning is not expected to be ready for week 1 according to higher ups in the Indianapolis organization. The Colts have signed Kerry Collins as insurance. The last time Peyton Manning missed the preseason was 2008. It took him 7 games to get right. In those 7 games, the Colts went 3-4 and Peyton Manning was 162-265 (61.1%) for 1754 yards (6.6 YPA) 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Let’s say Manning misses one game, and then in his next 7 has numbers similar or slightly worse than what he had in 7 games in 2008 (remember, this is a more serious injury and he’s 3 years old) and then in the 2^nd half he has vintage Peyton Manning numbers only cut in half (180-270 for 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions), that gives him this fantasy line for the season: 3854 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

That gives him 226 fantasy points. That puts him right around what Eli Manning had in 2010 (221). Eli Manning finished 10^th in quarterback fantasy points. I don’t think that’s a completely unreasonable projection for Peyton this season. I really don’t. He has a great supporting cast on offense so I’m projecting him slightly higher than that, but not much. Stay away from this guy. He’s going to get over drafted in your league. 

8/20/11: Colts Owner Jim Irsay says that the team is preparing for the possibility that Manning misses week 1. My money’s still on him starting, but this hurts his fantasy stock. He could have a slow start to his season. 

Peyton Manning was absolutely terrible in 2010, throwing for 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Hopefully my sarcasm translates through the internet. Point is, last year’s down year for Manning was not even bad. He still finished 4^th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. There’s a lot of reason to believe he’ll be better this year.

The Colts added offensive linemen with their first two picks and they didn’t do a ton to fix their running game which means he could have to throw the ball a league high 679 times again. His receiving corps, by default, should be healthier this year as well. His YPA will be closer to the 7.9 he had in 2009 than the 6.9 he had in 2010 and his attempts will be closer to the 679 he had in 2010 than the 571 he had in 2009. Am I crazy for thinking he could pass for 5000 yards?

Projection: Projection: 3900 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 3 fumbles (228 pts standard, 282 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

13. Matt Stafford (Detroit)

8/28/11: Wow. I had questions with Stafford going into this season because he has never proved himself on the field at the NFL level. However, he’s looked amazing this season, especially in the Lions’ 3^rd preseason game. He went 12 for 14 with 2 touchdowns and 200 passing yards, good for a perfect passer rating. Detroit’s quarterbacks had 4001 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 16 picks last season even though Stafford only played 3 games.

Now add in the fact that Titus Young is replacing Bryant Johnson, one of the worst receivers in the league last season, in the slot, and that Stafford is much more talented than Hill and Stanton and Stafford could have 4200 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions if he plays 16 games. However, we have to take injuries into account so my projected stats for him are over 14 games. Still, he’s a nice low end QB1 with top 7-8 fantasy QB upside. 

8/17/11: I didn’t have Stafford ranked in my top 15 because there are questions about his healthy and there are still questions about his ability. He’s still never proven himself in the NFL. He could be very good, but there was a point when we though David Carr, and Alex Smith, and JaMarcus Russell could have been very good. However, Stafford did look very good in his first preseason game, for what it’s worth.

Projection: 3650 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (223 pts standard, 273 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

14. Eli Manning (NY Giants)

8/21/11: Eli Manning will feel the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss this season. 

With 4002 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, Eli Manning should have had a strong fantasy season. He didn’t and you can blame 25 interceptions for that. I think that number drops back down into a more typical 17-19 for him. He had never had more than 20 picks before last year and a lot of those interceptions could be blamed on their receivers. I think he has better luck this year.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 6 fumbles (214 pts standard, 268 pts in 6 pt TD leagues) 

15. Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

8/21/11: I should have done this update a while ago, but Flacco has lost two reliable targets in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. Anquan Boldin is on the decline (30 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 10 games last season, including playoffs) and Flacco never has looked comfortable throwing to Boldin. Mason was always the one he was comfortable throwing to and he’s gone. Lee Evans is in, but he won’t have a lot of time to learn the offense and both of his tight ends are inexperienced. He also has two rookie receivers hurt by the lockout. This will hurt his stats a bit.  

Like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco has improved in every season of his 3 year career. Will he continue to improve in his 4^th year? Maybe, but it’s not as certain as it is with Matt Ryan, who now gets to play with Julio Jones. Joe Flacco gets two rookie receivers, Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss, but it remains to be seen what they can give as rookies. My money is on him having a very similar 2011 season to the season he had in 2010.

Projection: 3450 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 7 fumbles (204 pts standard, 250 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

Below is a list of positional battles that will have significant fantasy consequences this season, thus making them extremely important to monitor in training camp.

Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams

Both backs are extremely talented and averaged more than 5 YPC last season, but they still both have to split carries, as Stewart had 221 last year and Williams had 216. Stewart is younger so this may be the year he gets a more significant chunk of the carries.

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones

Jamaal Charles had an amazing 2^nd half last year with 1417 all purpose yards, despite not receiving double digit carries until week 10. He would be a lock to be a top 5 pick this year, however, the Chiefs decided to added Thomas Jones in the offseason. Jones ranked 3^rd in the league in rushing yards last year, but turns 32 before next season and may have just been the product of New York’s amazing line last year. There’s a good chance that Jones cuts into Charles’ carries in a way that’s fantasy significant, even if it only means Jones gets the bulk of the carries inside the 20.

Joseph Addai/Donald Brown

Brown was drafted in the first round in 2009 as the apparent successor to Joseph Addai, a serviceable, but mediocre running back. However, Brown got hurt and was unable to put together a strong enough campaign to take Addai’s job at any point last year. Brown is healthy this year and Addai is still serviceable, but mediocre. He hasn’t averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry in any season since his rookie year and his longest run in that time frame is a mere 23 yards.

Ben Tate/Arian Foster

Arian Foster took over the Texans starting running back job late last season, after Gary Kubiak changed starting running backs for the 10257^th time last season. However, Kubiak further proved he wasn’t satisfied with his backs by drafting the talented Ben Tate in the 2^nd round.

Michael Bush/Darren McFadden

McFadden had all the promise in the world when he was drafted 4^th overall in 2008. However, injuries and a 3.9 YPC in his career have destroyed a lot of that promise and now he appears to be on the verge of losing his starting job full time to the up and coming Michael Bush.

Felix Jones/Marion Barber

Marion Barber has been the starter in Dallas for several years and now it appears 2008 1^st round pick Felix Jones could take the lead back role. He has always been explosive in bursts, but hasn’t been the lead back on any level since high school.

Montario Hardesty/Jerome Harrison

Harrison was amazing in the last 3 weeks last season, with 593 total yards and 5 touchdowns, but issues about his size and durability caused the Browns to draft Hardesty in the 2^nd round in 2010. Hardesty has been getting most of the first team reps in OTAs and camp. 

Justin Forsett/Julius Jones

Julius Jones was a favorite of Jim Mora last year, but after Mora was fired, and new coach Pete Carroll’s project LenDale White was cut, Forsett began taking all of the first team reps, though Jones is still in the mix.

Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch/CJ Spiller

Spiller was drafted with the 9^th overall pick this past April, in a complete surprise pick. It has been said by people inside the Bills organization that Spiller will receiver about 12 carries per game and line up in the slot at times. That will leave Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to fight out for the rest of the Bills’ carries. Jackson was a great surprise story in 2009 with 1433 total yards, but Lynch is a 2007 first round pick who had two straight 1000 yard seasons to start his career, back in 2007 and 2008.

Matt Forte/Chester Taylor

Forte was the definition of fantasy bust last year. After going for 1715 total yards and 12 scores in 2008, he was a top 5 pick in almost every league, but dropped down to 1400 total yards and 4 scores in 2009, as he was fairly out of shape. The Bears brought veteran Chester Taylor in from Minnesota to compete with him. Taylor had a 1000 total yard season as recently as 2007, but dropped down to 3.6 YPC last year and 727 total yards last season as a clear backup to Adrian Peterson.

Larry Johnson/Clinton Portis

Portis has been the main man in Washington, with 1250 or more rushing yards in every year from 2004-2008, with the exception of 2006, but that all came to a crashing halt last year as, at age 28, Portis suffered numerous injuries and was held to just 494 yards last year. Johnson was brought in during the offseason and appears to be the back most likely to challenge Portis for his job.

Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham

Manningham had a great start to last year, but his inconsistencies and drops flared up late last year and he lost a lot of reps to 2009 1^st round pick Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is expected to take Manningham’s starting job from him this year.

Roy Williams/Dez Bryant

Williams really struggled last year, especially late when he had a combined 2 catches for 18 yards in the last 3 weeks, prompting the Cowboys to draft Dez Bryant in the first round back in April. It is believed to be only a matter of time before Bryant takes Williams’ job, but a Bryant ankle injury during training camp may buy Williams a bit more time.

Devin Aromashodu/Devin Hester/Johnny Knox

Knox had 45 catches for 527 yards and 5 scores last year as a rookie and figures to be a good fit for Mike Martz’ new scheme in Chicago. Hester is an explosive former kick returner who improved last year in his 2^nd year as a receiver and could break out in his 3^rd year at the position. He also is a good fit for Martz’ downfield scheme. Aromashodu really stepped up late last season with 24 catches for 282 yards and 4 scores in his final 4 games last year and Bears quarterback Jay Cutler went on record in saying that Aromashodu was the most likely receiver to step up and have a breakout year this season.

Jacoby Jones/Kevin Walter

Kevin Walter has been the Texans #2 receiver for the past few years, but Jones is expected to give him a run for his money this season and possibly take his job.

Devin Thomas/Malcolm Kelly/Joey Galloway

Kelly and Thomas were both 2^nd round picks in 2008 and were expected to compete to take the starting wide receiver this year, but offseason acquisition Joey Galloway, an experienced veteran, has been taking the first team reps in camp.

Jabar Gaffney/Demaryius Thomas/Eddie Royal

Eddie Royal had an amazing rookie year in 2008 as the Broncos slot receiver with 91 catches for 980 yards and 5 touchdowns, but when new coach Josh McDaniels came in, he made Royal their deep threat and his stats suffered as he only caught 37 passes for 345 yards and 0 scores. McDaniels has recently said that he sees Royal as a slot receiver so he may move him back, making him worthy of a late round pick again as he catches Kyle Orton’s girly armed short throws as a slot receiver. We’ll have to see where he lines up in the preseason. Gaffney had an amazing statistical week last week 17, albeit it was against the Chiefs, with 14 catches for 213 yards in a loss, with Brandon Marshall suspended. Gaffney is expected to compete with rookie Demaryius Thomas, a raw, but athletic receiver, for Marshall’s old #1 role.

Fred Davis/Chris Cooley

Cooley had 277 catches for 3143 yards and 22 touchdowns from 2005-2008, but got hurt week 7 last year and 2008 2^nd round pick Fred Davis really stepped up big time in his absence with 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores last year. The two will compete for a starting job this offseason and one or the other could be traded. 

Below is a list of key fantasy players coming off of injuries. These players are one you should play extra special attention to during the Pre-Season.

Tom Brady

Brady had shoulder, finger, and rib issues last year, in addition to the knee injury he suffered back in 2008.

Brett Favre

Favre had offseason ankle surgery and still has not announced if he will play next season, though many, many people believe he will.

Michael Turner

Turner had major issues with leg injuries down the stretch, limiting him to half the fantasy producer he was in 2008.

Steven Jackson

Always injury prone, Jackson is coming off of offseason back surgery, no minor surgery for a 27 year old back that has had as many carries as he has had over the past few years.

Ronnie Brown

Seemingly hurt every year, Brown suffered a foot injury that ended his 2009 season early in week 10.

Brandon Jacobs

Leg injuries, specifically to the knee, didn’t cause Jacobs to miss any games last year until week 17, when the Giants were already out of it, but they greatly sapped his explosion and limited him to 3.7 yards per carry behind an excellent line.

Ahmad Bradshaw

Jacobs’ backup Bradshaw also suffered foot and ankle injuries and required multiple offseason surgeries. He is reportedly still not practicing at full speed.

Randy Moss

Moss suffered a separated shoulder last late season, but played through it. He did, however, play significantly worse and with less hustle and intensity after the injury.

Steve Smith

The Panthers Steve Smith broke his arm in the offseason, though he very likely will be good to go for week 1.

Marques Colston

Colston had knee surgery for the 3^rd straight offseason and was placed on the Active/PUP list before training camp and has not been removed.

Brandon Marshall

Marshall had offseason surgery on a hip injury that Josh McDaniels thought he was making up, but he was ready to go full strength for the start of training camp.

Reggie Wayne

Wayne had offseason knee surgery, but hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year, a streak almost as impressive as teammate Peyton Manning’s.

Robert Meachem

Meachem’s offseason toe surgery landed him on the active/PUP last early, but could be activated for the start of camp.

Wes Welker

Welker tore two ligaments in his knee week 17 last year and started camp on the active/PUP list, before being removed from the list yesterday and being allowed to practice.

Anthony Gonzalez

Gonzalez missed all last season with a knee injury and will have to battle back from microfracture surgery to win the starting slot receiving job in Indianapolis.

Donald Driver

The picture of consistency, Driver had offseason surgery on both knees and has not practiced since.

TJ Houshmandzadeh

Houshmandzadeh had offseason surgery for a sports hernia.

Chris Cooley

Cooley went down with an injury in the middle of last season and will have to battle with Fred Davis, who stepped up in his absence, to be the Redskins starting tight end.

Kellen Winslow

Winslow had his 5^th surgery in 6 years on his right knee in the offseason and is expected to be ready for week 1.

Owen Daniels

Daniels tore his ACL for the 3^rd time in 4 years last season and his availability for week 1 is seriously in doubt.

1. Use a cheat sheet

The first rule of fantasy football (is you don’t talk about fantasy football, actually not really) is that you have to be prepared. Don’t rely on fantasy magazines or ESPN’s rankings for anything. Most of those were compiled weeks ago. You want up to date rankings. This requires you to either do a lot of research and come up with your own big board or find a reliable website to updates its rankings frequently (and what do you know, you’re on one right now). Here are my top 100 and my positional rankings.

You want to rely on a top 100 primarily, but have positional rankings handy in case you desperately need a position. Don’t be afraid to take best player available over positional need. There are some cases where need outweighs value, but overall, you’re going to be playing the matchups frequently anyway. You want a lot of depth. Positional rankings allow you to judge the depth at the position, but primarily you want to use a top 100 and cross off as you go along.

2. Have a list of sleepers

Positional rankings are also handy for one other thing. They let you know when all the starting caliber talent is gone at a position. When this happens, you want to start taking high upside sleepers. A lot of people make the mistake of drafting low upside, safe backups that don’t have the upside to be much more than a 4^th or 5^th player at a position for you. You want to take backups with a lot of upside. Best case scenario, they become starting caliber and give you more flexibility. Worst case, they bomb, you cut them and you pick up one of the many waiver studs that become available. Here are my sleepers.

3. Draft a backup quarterback based on your QB1’s bye week

There are some cases you can’t do this, but for the most part, it’s best to draft a backup quarterback who has an easy matchup in your starter’s bye week. More detail on this is available here. There is another rule you want to follow with starting quarterbacks. If you miss out on an elite talent and have to settle with a low end quarterback, you want to draft a high upside backup who has the ability to potentially become an elite talent (Bradford, Kolb, Stafford, McCoy, etc.)

4. Never draft a backup tight end unless it’s a sleeper or too good to pass on

Tight ends aren’t a big enough part of fantasy for you to waste 2 rosters spots on. Ideally, you get one, a solid starter and you pick up a backup off the waivers for his bye week and drop a disappointing high upside pick to get him. There are two exceptions here. Sometimes a value too good will just present itself. If a 2^nd tight end is the best player on your board, don’t hesitate to take him once your into the mid to late rounds. I did this in 2009. I drafted Visanthe Shiancoe as my TE1, but a round later, Brent Celek was just too good of a value to pass on and I drafted him. Celek took the starting job and ran with it while I was able to draft Shiancoe. The other exception is when a tight end is atop your sleeper board. It’s essentially the same reasoning as the first exception.

5. Never draft a backup defense or kicker

There are no exceptions here. Those two positions are too unimportant and/or random for you to use a 2^nd roster spot on one.

6. Have a top tier of defenses

You don’t want to be that guy you drafts a defense in the 8^th round and then has his fellow drafters laugh at him while no one else drafts another defense for 2 rounds. You also want to avoid being that get you gets a crappy defense. This is why it’s important to make a list of your top 4 or 5 defenses and then when half of them are off the board, take your best available. My top 4 are here.

7. Don’t reach for your top tier, however.

If you miss out on your top tier, it’s not a huge deal. You can just wait until the 15^th round (right before you draft your kicker) and play the matchups with defenses. Did you know, last season if you had used whichever defense played Carolina, you would have had the #1 fantasy defense. Obviously, you can’t always have a defense that plays the worst offense in the league, but you can almost have a defense that plays a bottom 4 or 5 offense. It’s a nice consolation prize for getting a top tier defense so don’t reach.

8. Never draft a kicker before the last round

Kickers are all random for the most part. Wait until week 16 and draft a kicker that some random fantasy service tells you is the best available. It doesn’t matter. If he sucks, drop him and pick up one that doesn’t. I don’t even rank kickers for this reason.

9. Pay attention to ADP

You might have a player ranked 65, but if his ADP is in the 130s, it might be smarter to draft a player you have ranked 70, but with an ADP of around 75. It’s simple reasoning. That first guy could easily be there when you make your next pick. The 2^nd guy probably won’t. You want both right?

10. Draft handcuffs for uncertain players

Jeremy Maclin was really sick this offseason. Riley Cooper will step into the lineup if he misses any games or doesn’t play well. If you draft Jeremy Maclin, make sure you can get Cooper. Chris Johnson’s holdout could go into the season. Chris Johnson owners will want Javon Ringer, who figures to be the lead back in Johnson’s absence. Michael Turner and Maurice Jones Drew are both injury risks. You want Jason Snelling and Rashad Jennings respectively. There are more examples of this, but you get the picture by this point.

11. Know your league rules

What roster slots does your league use? Is it PPR, 1/2 PPR, 2 PPR? Are touchdowns worth more? Are yards worth less? Do you have some random weird scoring settings? You need to know this. It’s for this reason that I not only provide predictions on how many fantasy points a player will score in a standard league, but also how many they will score in a PPR or a 6 point passing TD league. I also include all their projected stats in case you play in a weird league and need to calculate projected points yourself.