11. Oklahoma City Thunder- C Cole Aldrich

This pick was acquired in a trade with New Orleans and I’ll grade the trade for both teams after I grade all the picks, but for now I’m just going to grade this pick straight up, as if the Thunder used the 11^th pick on Aldrich. Aldrich is a player that I don’t think will be anything special at the next level. He can do some things well, block shots, grab rebounds, hit the jumper, but he’s not a true power big man and there isn’t really one thing he specializes in. He’s exactly what the Thunder need however, a defensive big man that doesn’t need the ball and he’s probably better than any center they have on the team, but he wasn’t worth the 11^th pick.

Grade: B

12. Memphis Grizzlies- SG Xavier Henry

Not a bad pick. Henry provides a talented scorer off the bench that the Grizzlies lacked last year and he can play the wing for the Grizzlies should Rudy Gay leave as a free agent, but was he the 12^th best player in this draft? I don’t know about that. He’s a good scorer in flashes, but he’s inconsistent and pretty one dimensional. He’s also not going to be a starter for them any time soon unless Gay leaves so you’re using the 12^th pick on a bench player, which may or may not be a smart idea, but ideally you want starters in the top 12-14 picks.

Grade: B

13. Toronto Raptors- PF Ed Davis

Great pick. For the 2^nd year in a row the Raptors have drafted a very high upside player in hopes of being able to have a face of the franchise type player after Bosh leaves, which it looks like he will. Davis is raw, but still young, so that’s fine and I had him as one of the ten best players in this draft class so the value is good. He actually fills a need even if Bosh leaves because they were looking for more muscle inside.

Grade: A

14. Houston Rockets- PF Patrick Patterson

The Houston Rockets team is full of players like Patterson and that’s why they were competitive last year without Yao Ming. This was a weak draft class so while Patterson won’t be a star in this league, I think he would have been well worth a top ten pick. In this new era of power forwards where it’s less about size and strength and more about rebounding and hustle, Patterson will fit in just fine. He can also hit an outside shot. He gives them more options inside with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and possibly Yao Ming and I think Patterson will be a starter for this team somewhere sometime next year, whether it be as a 4, a power 3, or an undersized 5, or a mix of all 3.

Grade: A

15. Milwaukee Bucks- C Larry Sanders

This happens every year. A team takes a big man, who is very raw, on potential alone and nothing happens. Sanders has a 7-7 wingspan, but he is challenged offensively and has only been playing basketball for 6 years. That’s raw. He also has a very skinny frame and will need to bulk up. I don’t think he’ll be worth this pick in a few years, but he does fill a bit of a need as a shot blocker if he, offensively, can work his way into the rotation.

Grade: C

 

16. Portland Trailblazers- SF Luke Babbitt

Trailblazers got him in a trade, but still, I’m going to judge this pick for what it is. Small forward was the Blazers biggest need area and Babbitt was one of the best available. What more do you want from a team?

Grade: A

17. Washington Wizards- PF Kevin Sheraphin

I’ll tell you the truth, I don’t know very much about this kid at all. I know he was projected to be a late first round pick and that he can come over to play now if he wants, but based on how few Europeans have panned out in recent years and how weak of a European class this was, as said by experts, I’ll be skeptical.

Grade: B

18. Los Angeles Clippers- PG Eric Bledsoe

I don’t see why the Clippers had to trade what could possibly be a lottery pick in 2011 to get their backup point guard, but I’m not grading the trade, I’m grading the pick. Bledsoe is part of a weak point guard class and since they did need a backup point guard, they could have done a lot worse things than reaching for a guy who probably should have gone mid 20s. They don’t really have anything behind injury prone Baron Davis.

Grade: B

19. Boston Celtics- PG Avery Bradley

I wanted to see the Celtics take someone who can help right away, not an undersized shooting guard who is solid on defense and can put the ball in the hoop, but will have to convert to being a point guard at 6-2, something he is far from being right now. He won’t be able to play extensive minutes early and even if he matures into an extensive minutes type player, it’ll be at point guard, where they already have Rajon Rondo, and they should have him for a while.

Grade: C

20. San Antonio Spurs- SG James Anderson

Anderson struggles defensively, but he can be a solid sparkplug off the bench who can shoot the ball well from the outside. He struggles to create his own shot, but he’s exactly the type of players the Spurs needed off the bench, someone who can hit a shot, play a role, and play a role immediately.

Grade: A

 

1. Washington Wizards- PG John Wall

Wall has been called a once or twice in a decade prospect by many, many experts. Experts have been wrong before, but everything I’ve seen of Wall leads me to believe that these experts won’t be wrong. He’s got to work on his maturity and leadership at the point guard position, but that will come with age, as it did for Derrick Rose, who has, in two years, matured into the leader and the face of the Chicago Bulls. He’s got to work on his outside shot and cutting down his turnovers, but his mid range game is already great and he’s a fierce penetrator to the basket with an NBA ready body. I like Evan Turner as a prospect as well, but the Wizards had to go with the potential superstar here. Wall doesn’t fill a major need, but you never know with Gilbert Arenas, and Turner didn’t fill a major need either and reaching for a big man like DeMarcus Cousins or Derrick Favors to fill a need would have been a big, big mistake for this franchise.

Grade: A

2. Philadelphia 76ers- SF Evan Turner

I would have liked to have seen them move down to get a big, but I’ll assume for the sake of this grade that they tried and could not and in that case, they had to take Turner. Wall is the superstar potential kid in this class, but Turner is the do everything sidekick that will be almost as valuable to a contender as their superstar. You’ve heard of five tool outfielders in baseball, this kid is a 5 tool basketball player, shooting, driving, distributing, defense, and rebounding. He doesn’t fill their biggest need, but he’s going to be a lot more valuable to them than a guy like Favors or Cousins would have been.

Grade: A

3. New Jersey Nets- PF Derrick Favors

Once again I’m not going to argue with this pick. Favors is not going to be a superstar in this league, but the Nets couldn’t have really gotten a superstar type player with this pick because in my eyes, this class had one future #1 option, one strong future #2 option, and the rest were #2 options or worse. Favors will be a solid #2 big man on a good team someday, though he is raw, and, positionally, he fills their biggest need.

Grade: A

4. Minnesota Timberwolves- SF Wesley Johnson

I would have liked to have seen them move up to get someone who can do something more offensively, or move down for value and an offensive minded swingman, but assuming they couldn’t do that, I think this was the best they could go. Johnson is offensive issues, but he’s going to help them on defense. I don’t know that he’ll persuade Ricky Rubio to come over as moving up for Turner or moving down for Xavier Henry would have, but he was the best pick they could make at this spot. DeMarcus Cousins would have been a mistake and he would have been the only other player to fit this slot. They already have Kevin Love and Al Jefferson inside. They need a defensive minded big, not another inside scorer.

Grade: A

5. Sacramento Kings- C DeMarcus Cousins

Not special to say here. Cousins fills their need inside. They traded for Samuel Dalembert, but mostly for his expiring contract. Cousins was the best available player here and fills a big need. I think Cousins has to be the early favorite for rookie of the year this year, if he can stay in shape, out of trouble, and healthy. This is exactly what I thought they’d do in this situation and it’s exactly what I would do.

Grade: A

 

6. Golden State Warriors- PF Ekpe Udoh

The Warriors’ idea with this pick was to add size and to get better defensively, and I like that idea, but you’re not going to convince me that Udoh was the 6^th best player in this draft class. Udoh is raw offensively and he’s 23 years old. He and North Carolina’s Ed Davis are very similar players, good defensively and on the boards, but raw offensively. However, Davis is 21 and it’s perfectly alright to use a top 6 pick on a defensive minded big that’s a bit raw offensively if he’s 21. 23 is a different story. 23 is pushing it a little. 23 is the point where you maybe start to say, well, he hasn’t developed into a good offensive big man at this point. I don’t know if he ever will. I don’t see why, with two similar talents, you take the older of the two.

Grade: C

7. Detroit Pistons- C Greg Monroe

Another case of taking the wrong big I think. The Pistons really needed a big physical presence inside and Monroe has a reputation for being a bit soft inside. Adding size and strength was their biggest need this offseason and I’m glad to see that they didn’t take a guy like Al-Farouq Aminu. Aminu probably would have been best available, but wouldn’t have filled a need at all. They have way too much depth on the wings anyway and I don’t buy Aminu being a power forward at the NBA level. Still, I think Davis would have been the right pick here.

Grade: C

8. Los Angeles Clippers- SF Al-Farouq Aminu

I had been mocking this pick for months and I don’t think any mock drafter with half a brain had Aminu slipping past here. Aminu is best available, or at least one of the best available, and he plays the only position that the Clippers really have a hole at in their starting lineup, assuming Blake Griffin bounces back from injury, and in the top 10 if you’re not drafting players that you think are starting caliber and that you can realistically get into the starting lineup sometime soon, you’re doing something wrong. Aminu is the type of player that can help you without having the ball in his hands and the Clippers already had enough playmakers.

Grade: A

9. Utah Jazz- SF Gordon Heyward

I had been hearing small forward here before the draft, though I expected Luke Babbitt. I don’t really think Heyward is the 9^th best player in this class, in fact, he would have been lucky to be taken in the first round before the NCAA tournament. As good as he was there, it was only 6 games and I don’t think those 6 games are enough to move a player up from the 2^nd round to the top 10. I don’t necessarily think that Babbitt or even Paul George would have been the right pick here anyway. I would have gone with a big like Ed Davis or Patrick Patterson. I don’t know that Paul Millsap is the right guy to start to power forward when Carlos Boozer leaves and it looks very unlikely that he’ll stay.

Grade: B

10. Indiana Pacers- SF Paul George

Unlike the NFL Draft, we almost made it through the top 10 without me being completely confused by a pick. Does George have a ton of upside here, yeah, but you would like to take a player in the top 10 that’s not completely raw. George doesn’t have an NBA frame right now; he’s not NBA ready and not ready to play big minutes. Plus, they already have Danny Granger at small forward and that’s pretty much the only position they didn’t need. George can play shooting guard, but he’s not a natural two and two guard wasn’t a huge need either. They need a point guard or a big man here and since they’re weren’t really any good point guards available in this range, I think a big man should have been the pick.

Grade: D 

When predicting a draft, its important to know what certain drafters and organizations tend to draft

San Diego Chargers- Known for being a bit unpredictable when drafting, but seem to enjoy taller players, building from the outside in, and proven college guys.

Denver Broncos- Not much is known about John Elway’s drafting tendencies, but John Fox likes high character players and hates pass catching tight ends.

Oakland Raiders- Put an extra emphasis on speed and size, actually scratch that, only puts an emphasis on speed and size, Darrius Heyward Bey is the greatest player of all time

Kansas City Chiefs- Come from the New England school of drafting only they aren’t quite as good, enjoy building in the trenches, especially defensive line, known to go with positional value over need

Indianapolis Colts- Strong believers in the best available player theory, much more likely to draft offensive early rather than defensive

Jacksonville Jaguars- Badly need to sell tickets so big name guys are going to be high on their radar, otherwise they are big fans of the best available player theory and also enjoy drafting a player at a position they just drafted

Houston Texans- 3 of their last 4 first round picks were used an offensive or defensive lineman, so there is a strong tendency to build from the inside out

Tennessee Titans- Put extra value on building in the trenches and adding to their defense, though their last two first round picks were used on offensive players

Cincinnati Bengals- Enjoy drafting players with a criminal record, no character, no problem, all they care about is football talent and potential

Pittsburgh Steelers- Tend to go with best available player and also enjoy watching Big Ben get hit many times and not doing anything about the offensive line, enjoy bigger offensive lineman rather than smaller

Baltimore Ravens- Often ignore positional needs for the best available player

Cleveland Browns- Enjoy drafting low on the positional value chart and are known for getting ripped off in draft day trades, last year traded the rights to a franchise quarterback for the rights to a center, as well as a free safety, a 3-4 defensive end, and a few later picks

New England Patriots- Hate to draft in their assigned spot and will make about 35 draft day trades in an effort to someday have every pick in the entire 2^nd round, prefer to draft in the trenches, and do not fall in love with prospects and will never trade up to get a guy, a bit afraid to draft rush linebackers, known for making smart draft moves

New York Jets- Presumably like to draft defense based on Rex Ryan’s history as a defensive coordinator, but there isn’t much evidence either way. Drafted a quarterback in the first round last year because it was a huge need and were not afraid to move up 12 spots to get their guy, also later traded many picks for the rights to Shonn Greene so a history of falling in love with players is there

Miami Dolphins- Speed over size, fundamentals over athleticism, build in trenches, its been the Parcells way for years

Buffalo Bills- New regime, no idea about drafting tendency, though securing a franchise quarterback would likely be high on their list

Arizona Cardinals- Offense over defense, value over need

San Francisco 49ers- “I want winners!” -Mike Singletary

Seattle Seahawks- New regime so it can be tough to tell, especially since no GM is currently in place, but Pete Carroll, like college coaches before him, will likely put a greater emphasis on guys who were good college players, and also put added value on guys they worked with at the college level

St. Louis Rams- Big fans of positional value upstairs and their coach puts an extra emphasis on defense and a good pass rush as shown by his years as a pass rush minded coordinator with the Giants

New Orleans Saints- Big fans of best available, known to stock pile wide receivers

Atlanta Falcons- Draft for need rather than positional value, known to reach a bit, and also known to draft up for a guy they like

Carolina Panthers- Known to trade away their first round pick, and build in the trenches, offensive line over defensive line

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Committed to building around their young quarterback, but their head coach is also a defensive minded guy who lacks a good defense right now, so defense could be high on his list as well

Minnesota Vikings- Don’t put a huge stock on guys with character issues, big lineman over faster more athletic lineman, known to take risks

Green Bay Packers- Straight off of the draft board, best available always, regardless of needs

Chicago Bears- Defensive over offensive, haven’t had a ton of early picks in a while

Detroit Lions- Value over need every time, might be committed to building around Matt Stafford, but I’m not sure

Dallas Cowboys- The bigger the name the better, also enjoy ignoring needs and drafting many guys at the same positional, would rather eat bugs than draft defensive backs, especially early, big offensive lineman over smaller lineman

Philadelphia Eagles- Build from the inside out, enjoy large offensive lineman, hate to draft running backs

New York Giants- Big fans of drafting best available, also enjoy building their defensive line

Washington Redskins- Owner like the big name, head coach will be looking for his own quarterback, like to pick some random running back late and run him 300 times the next season then repeat process, athletic lineman over bigger lineman 

 

I really don’t like signing almost any middle linebacker to a 5 year 42.5 million dollar contract, especially one like D’Qwell Jackson who played just 6 games from 2009-2010. It’s a serious risk to give him a contract in the neighborhood of Patrick Willis, Jon Beason, Karlos Dansby, and David Harris and I’m not sure he’d even be worth that if he wasn’t an injury risk. The one redeeming quality of this deal is that all the guaranteed money (10.4 million) is in the first 2 years so if he disappoints in anyway, they can cut him after the 2013 season.

Grade: D 

 

 

 

Running Back

Boise State

5-9 223

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board overall running back rank: #2

Overall rating: 81 (borderline 1^st/2^nd round)

40 time: 4.47

Games watched: Boise State/Toledo, Boise State/Fresno State, Boise State/Arizona State

Positives

·         Runs with great pad level

·         Incredibly tough

·         Strong, powerful, tough to tackle in open field (28 reps of 225)

·         Good size (5-9 223)

·         Gets low and uses his blockers well

·         Good patient and vision

·         Tough, gritty player who fights for every last yard

·         Shifty, elusive player who cuts well

·         Good timed speed (4.47)

·         Two years of great production (2010: 201 carries for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns 2011: 263 carries for 1299 yards and 16 touchdowns)

·         Great hands out of the backfield (28 catches in each of last 2 seasons)

·         Above average pass protector

·         Intelligent player who picks up blitzes very well for his age

·         High character, high motor player

·         Good work ethic and in great shape

·         Well and able special teamer

·         Returned a kickoff to the house in 2011 (while averaging 34 yards per return) and was one of Boise State’s best special teamers in 2008

·         Versatile athlete who played some cornerback in 2009 before moving back to running back

·         True 3 down back who can contribute on the 4^th down (special teams) if you want

·         Good goal line back

Negatives

·         A lot of tread on his tires already (617 career carries)

·         Senior season was inferior to junior season

·         Struggled with injuries as a senior, looked sluggish at times

·         Violent running style could be the cause of future injuries

·         Lacks elite burst

·         Doesn’t play quite as fast as his 40 time (4.47)

·         Lacks breakaway speed

·         Didn’t play an elite level of competition

Comparison: Mark Ingram

When I watched Martin against Toledo and Fresno State, I put him into that borderline 3^rd/4^th round range with power backs like Temple’s Bernard Pierce and Utah State’s Robert Turbin. This was because I thought he was just a power back. I was impressed with his toughness and grittiness and pad level to break tackles, but I didn’t see a whole lot of speed and explosion.

He had to break a ton of tackles because the defense could close on him so quickly. He had 70 yards on 19 carries against Toledo and 94 yards on 16 carries (with 55 of them one on carry) against Fresno State. He was averaging 4 yards per carry against weak competition and I didn’t see him as a potential feature back type in the NFL.

Turns out, he was playing hurt, further proving his toughness and grittiness. This injury did cost him a game against TCU (Boise State’s only loss of the season), but once he returned, he was much better. He finished with 115 carries for 543 yards and 7 touchdowns in his last 4 games and started looking more like the player he was in 2010 when he rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries.

I was particularly impressed with him against Arizona State, not too shabby an opponent, in Boise State’s bowl game. He started the game with a kickoff return to the house, but that wasn’t what impressed me. He continued to be a ferocious bowling ball of a running back, breaking tackles like Maurice Jones Drew or Ray Rice, but he showed more speed and burst. He still wasn’t elite in that area, but it was much better. He rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries, despite not breaking a gain of more than 21 yards all game. I felt he could be a steal on day 3 if he still fell that far.

However, he won’t fall that far. Looks like everyone else has taken notice that he’s healthy. Driven by a strong Combine performance, where he essentially benched his body weight (225) 28 times, ran a 4.47 40 at 5-9 223, up 8 pounds from his playing weight, and impressed in position drills, particularly as a blocker and a receiver (he also had 56 catches from 2010-2011).

Now he’s a legitimate early to mid day 2 prospect and is in the running with David Wilson and Lamar Miller to be the 2^nd back off the board after Trent Richardson. He probably won’t fall out of the 2^nd round. I have him 2^nd behind Richardson because, while I think Miller and Wilson are more explosive, Martin is bigger and tougher and will be better on 3^rd down. He looks like a true 3 down back right away and he can even contribute on special teams as well. A jack of all traits, Wilson played gunner on special teams, cornerback on defense, and kick returner on special teams, in addition to running back in his 4 years at Boise State.

As a prospect, I compare him to Mark Ingram. Ingram was the bigger name coming out last year (and going 28^th overall) because he played for Alabama and won the Heisman. However, they are similar players with similar backgrounds. In 2008, Ingram was a backup and rushed for 875 yards (5.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns on 158 carries. In 2009, Wilson was a backup and rushed for 769 yards (5.9 YPC) and 15 touchdowns on 129 carries.

In 2009, Ingram had his best season and rushed for 1658 yards and 18 touchdowns on 271 carries (6.1 YPA). In 2010, Wilson has his best season and rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries (6.3 YPC). In 2010, bothered by injury, Ingram had a down year and rushed for 728 yards (5.1 YPA) and 12 touchdowns on 143 carries. In 2011, bothered by injury, Martin had a down year and rushed for 1299 yards and 16 touchdowns on 263 carries (4.9 YPA). Ingram ran a 4.53 at 5-9 215.

Wilson ran a 4.47 at 5-9 223. Both are gritty, tough backs who run with good pad level, break tackles, and play all 3 downs, but lack elite burst and breakaway speed. The main difference is level of competition, which is why Martin is a 2^nd rounder and Ingram is a 1^st rounder, but they are very similar prospects.

Ingram had a rough rookie year, but he’s still got time to turn it around. He’s far from a complete bust. Martin should have a better rookie season if he can stay healthy. Ingram’s problem as a rookie was injuries, something that could plague Martin based on his history of usage, his past injury history, and his style of play. Both Martin and Ingram, however, do have bright futures.

 

The Cowboys were about 20 million over cap after the lockout ended so the Cowboys had to cut Leonard Davis, Marion Barber, Marc Colombo and Roy Williams to get this deal, but franchise left tackles don’t grow on trees. Between Free and Tyron Smith, the Cowboys have very talented bookends to keep Tony Romo upright. They got Free at a very reasonable rate, 32 million over 4, with 17 million guaranteed, which is pretty impressive considering they were in a pretty hectic bidding war with Tampa Bay for him.

Grade: A

 

Wide Receiver

Pittsburgh

6-1 226

40 time: 4.40

Draft board overall prospect rank: #123

Draft board wide receiver rank: #15

Overall rating: 64*

            4/1/10: Dorin Dickerson is possibly the most puzzling NFL Draft prospect of this year, and, for that reason, also the most interesting. He played pretty much every position on the field for Pittsburgh playing linebacker, fullback, tight end, and wide receiver. He also operated the scoreboard, served as assistant coach, was the mascot, and worked the hot dog stand but I don’t think he projects long term at any of those positions on a professional level. In all seriousness, Dickerson has played a ton of positions. However, after measuring in at 6-1 226 at the Combine, he wasn’t going to be big enough to play any of those positions in the NFL, with the exception of wide receiver, where he spent the least amount of time. There were also major concerns about his speed. He had talent, making the All-American team as a tight end in 2009, but there were major questions about his position and, consequently, whether or not he’d be drafted. After running a 4.40 at 6-1 226, he got rid of concerns about his speed. He didn’t look that fast on tape last year, though I knew he was fast for a tight end, which is a bit concerning, maybe he has good track speed and not good football speed, but that definitely showed his athleticism and his ability to play wide receiver longterm. He definitely has the hands to do so, catching 49 passes for 529 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, all the while playing in a Pro Style offense, and running Pro Style routes, but he’s certainly a project. He’ll probably be taken in the 3^rd or 4^th round range by some time who can afford to waste a pick on a possible future special teamer, but he can be a very dangerous offensive weapon at wide receiver in the future if he can convert to the position easily. He’s a very underrated blocker and an amazing blocker for his size so he’ll have a role on special teams early and as a depth receiver, on run plays, but I am optimistic about his upside.

NFL Comparison: Robert Ferguson

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Surprised to see Whitner got a multiyear deal. The way the market has dried up, I didn’t think we’d see anymore. Whitner is a solid safety, but given that a comparable safety in Gerald Sensabaugh got 2.5 million over 1 year a few days ago, Whitner getting 3 years, 11.75 million with 4 million in guarantees seems a little excessive, especially since the signing was followed by the 49ers putting 2010 2^nd round pick Taylor Mays on Craigslist (alright not really, but they sent a mass email to the league shopping him).

Grade: C

 

 

 

Nose Tackle/Defensive Tackle

Memphis

6-4 346

Draft board overall prospect rank: #34

Draft board nose tackle rank: #1

Overall rating: 80 (borderline 1^st/2^nd round)

40 time: 4.87

Positives

·         Massive (6-4 346)

·         Exceptional athleticism for his size

·         Moves extremely well for his size

·         Amazing 40 time for his size (4.87 with 1.68 10 yard split)

·         Incredibly strong

·         Stout at the point of attack

·         Incredibly hard to move

·         44 reps of 225 on the bench (led the way)

·         Explosive

·         Good straight line speed

·         Rare size to play 3-4 nose tackle

·         Versatile enough to play 4-3 defensive tackle or 5-technique in a 3-4

·         Great against the run

·         The ability to become a good pass rusher

·         Frequently double teamed

·         A big shield who opens things up for other guys

·         Keeps himself in excellent physical shape (not a nose tackle you’ll have to worry about ballooning to 370)

·         Huge upside

·         Durable, doesn’t get winded

Negatives

·         Lack of production (2009: 27 tackles, 7 for loss, 2 sacks, 2010: 41 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 2 sacks, 2011: 33 tackles, 8 for loss, 1 sack)

·         Played in a weak conference

·         Struggled against tougher opponents (did not play well against Mississippi State)

·         Played on an absolutely awful team in a weak conference (5 wins in 3 years)

·         Questionable motor

·         Does take some plays off

·         Does not live up to his measurables

·         Not as quick as he is straight line fast

·         Questionable change of direction ability

·         Struggled in some of The Combine agility drills

·         A project

·         Raw as a pass rusher

·         A projection to a 3-4 scheme

·         Short arms (31 5/8 inches)

NFL Comparison: Albert Haynesworth

Dontari Poe is a really polarizing prospect. After his amazing Combine, a lot of people called him the best defensive tackle in this draft class and mocked him 9^th to Carolina, who really needs a defensive tackle. His Combine was simply amazing. 346 pounders aren’t supposed to move like him, running a 4.87 with a 1.68 10 yard split with 44 reps on the bench press.

I didn’t mock him to Carolina, instead putting Fletcher Cox there after his underrated Combine. The 6-4 300 pound Cox ran in the high 4.7s and had a better 10 yard split than Poe and was much better in the agility and change of direction drills than Poe. Cox was the more productive player in a much tougher conference and he had much better change of direction and quickness, whereas Poe is more straight line fast.

The consensus has caught up to this. Cox is now seen as the top defensive tackle in this draft class and 9 to Carolina is now his floor. Tampa Bay at 5 and St. Louis at 6 could be interested and if he slips past them, Philadelphia will be working the phones to move up to 7 to grab him ahead of Carolina. Poe, meanwhile, has begun to slip as teams have gone back and watched the tape of him and reports are coming out that the NFL is not as high on him as the media. He could slip into the 20s, though I doubt Pittsburgh would let him get past them at 24. They need a nose tackle and they may see themselves as capable of getting the most out of him (and rightfully so given their history defensively).

Poe is really a boom or bust prospect and I would be really scared to use a first round pick on him. I have him right outside the first round. He’s got a decent motor and work ethic, but he’s just so raw. This is a kid with 5 sacks in 3 years on a Conference USA team that had 5 wins in his 3 years there. He struggled against BCS opponents like the SEC’s Mississippi State. He’s a project and he could be worth it, but I’d let someone else take him in the first. In the 2^nd round, I probably jump on him because you’re looking at guys you can wait a year or so on.

The comparison I make is Albert Haynesworth. Like Poe, Haynesworth was a freak athlete without a lot of production coming out of Tennessee, albeit out of a tougher conference. He went 15^th to the Tennessee Titans and had a solid, albeit tumultuous tenure with the Titans. The Redskins took a chance on giving him a massive deal in free agency and he definitely didn’t live up to it, playing just 2 years with the team, only one as a productive starter, before being shipped to New England for pennies.

He was then cut by New England and cut by Tampa Bay and is currently out of a job 3 years after signing a 9 figure deal. Poe will be really boom or bust like that and maybe just as inconsistent, but at his past, he’ll be like Haynesworth was for the Titans in 2008, when he was arguably the best defensive lineman in the league with 8.5 sacks. A lot of people like to make the comparison to Haloti Ngata, Vince Wilfork, or BJ Raji with him, but I don’t like he’ll be that sure of a prospect or that consistent of a player.

 

 

Middle Linebacker

Alabama

6-2 265

Draft board overall prospect rank: #21

Draft board overall middle linebacker rank: #2

Overall rating: 84 (Borderline 1^st/2^nd round prospect)

40 time: 4.62

Games watched: Alabama/Florida, Alabama/Vanderbilt, Alabama/Tennessee, LSU/Alabama, Alabama/Auburn, Alabama/LSU (Part 2) 

Positives:

·         Excellent size 6-2 265

·         Great 40 for his size (4.62)

·         Impressive athleticism

·         A huge thumper against the run

·         A good, fundamental tackler

·         Incredibly strong tackler- very tough to break

·         Makes big tackles

·         Impressive 2011 season (85 tackles, 11 for loss, 4 sacks, and a pick)

·         Experienced in a 3-4

·         Well coached

·         Strong motor

·         A leader on the field

·         A hard worker with a great work ethic

·         Reactive

·         Takes good routes to the ball

·         Sheds blocks with ease

·         An excellent blitzer

·         Versatile- plays end in a 4-3 on passing downs

·         Pass rush ability makes up for weakness in coverage

·         Impressive zone coverage ability for his size

Negatives

·         Not comfortable in backpedal

·         Not great in space

·         Not as fast as his 40 time

·         Questions about where he plays in a 4-3

·         An extensive injury history

·         Not great in coverage one on one

·         Position (middle linebackers aren’t in high demand)

NFL Comparison: Jeremiah Trotter

Hightower actually has one of the cleanest scouting reports of any prospects in this draft class. He doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses, but what weakness he does have are big ones. For one, his position is not heavy in demand. You could see this in free agency. Players like Stephen Tulloch, David Hawthorne, and Curtis Lofton all took a while to sign and signed for less than “market value,” while London Fletcher is still unsigned. This is a passing league and even some of the best middle linebackers in coverage are not going to have a huge impact on your defense, or at least that’s how it’s seen.

Hightower isn’t great in coverage, though he makes up for it by being versatile and rushing the passer. On 3^rd downs, he would line up opposite Courtney Upshaw and rush the quarterback either at rush linebacker or defensive end in a 4-3 nickel package. He’s also an above average blitzer. At 6-2 265, he has the size of a defensive end at middle linebacker.

However, at the same time, there are major questions about how he fits in a 4-3 base. He’s probably not a good enough pass rusher to play 4-3 defensive end full time, not to mention that it would be a pretty major position change. He’s also a little too big and slow in space to be a 4-3 linebacker. This is the 2^nd major concern I have with him.

The 3^rd is his injury history. He completely wrecked his knee in 2009, tearing his ACL and MCL and meniscus. He did a great job of working back from this injury, which is yet another sign of his high character and work ethic, but that injury is still a major red flag. It is definitely worth noting that he’s a high character player on and off the field. He’s well coached and Nick Saban has nothing but good things to say about his former middle linebacker.

Aside from those 3 major concerns, he’s a very clean prospect and in the right system he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player, but it’s all about the right fit for him. He’s going to be best in a 3-4, but some 4-3 schemes would fit him well assuming he’s used in the right manner. I think he compares favorably to Jeremiah Trotter, which is high praise and shows how highly I think of him.

Trotter played most of his career in a 4-3 in Philadelphia, but rarely had to play in back pedal. He was used primarily as a run stuffer and a blitzer in the late Jim Johnson’s blitz heavy scheme. Trotter was 6-1 260 and Hightower has similar size and similar abilities. Trotter was a 4-time Pro Bowler and used correctly, Hightower can have a similar career.

All in all, I have a late first round grade on Hightower. That’s probably where he’ll go. I’ve been mocking him to Pittsburgh at 24 for months and that is a popular pick on mock drafts across the draft community. He’d be a perfect fit in Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defense and fill a major need for the Steelers. If the Steelers do pass on him, I’m sure the Ravens would love adding him as a future replacement for Ray Lewis. There is also some small buzz about him going 16 to the Jets to replace Bart Scott or the Jets taking him after trading down. Seattle is another team rumored to be interested in him after a trade down.