Dre Kirkpatrick Scout

 

Cornerback/Safety

Alabama

6-2 186

Draft board overall prospect rank: #26

Draft board overall cornerback rank: #3

Overall rating: 82 (Borderline 1st/2nd round prospect)

40 time: 4.46

Games watched: Alabama/FloridaAlabama/VanderbiltAlabama/TennesseeLSU/AlabamaAlabama/Auburn, Alabama/LSU (Part 2) 

Positives

·         Rare size for a cornerback (6-2)

·         Great 40 time for his size (4.46)

·         Long and rangy

·         Great athleticism

·         Great leaping ability

·         Excellent straight line speed

·         Physical in coverage

·         Above average against the run

·         Not afraid to get physical with the ball carrier

·         Powerful hitter

·         Shut down most receivers he played this season (Rueben Randle combined for 5 catches for 32 yards in 2 games against him)

·         Can run deep with any receiver

·         Uses his hands well

·         Well coached

·         Was often thrown away from last season

·         Excellent closing speed 

Negatives

·         Stiff hips

·         Lacks explosion

·         Can get blown off the line of scrimmage

·         Takes a while to get into full speed

·         Not great change of direction

·         Doesn’t play as fast as his 40 time

·         Can get burned by speed receivers

·         No interceptions in 2011 (only 3 in 2010)

·         Minimal ball skills

·         Short arms for his height (could contribute to poor ball skills)

·         Off the field problems

·         Didn’t interview well

·         A bit thin (6-2 186)

·         Goes for the big hit over the safe tackle

·         Struggles with man press

NFL Comparison: Antonio Cromartie

Like Antonio Cromartie, Dre Kirkpatrick has elite athleticism, speed, and size at the cornerback position. Cromartie is 6-3 and he’s one of the few cornerbacks in the NFL any taller than 6-1 or 6-2. Kirkpatrick was listed at 6-3 at Alabama and measured in at slightly over 6-2 at The Combine. He also showed good 4.4 speed.

At his top speed, Kirkpatrick is one of the fastest cornerbacks and he has the ability to run with any wide receiver. Cromartie is the same way, but like Cromartie, Kirkpatrick takes a bit to get up to full speed. He doesn’t have elite explosion and can get blown off the line of scrimmage by faster, quicker receivers. He also doesn’t have elite change of direction or hip fluidity and struggles with quicker receivers for this reason too. Another comparison is Dominique Rodgers Cromartie. Both of the Cromarties have games similar to Kirkpatrick’s. In fact, Kirkpatrick might be a long lost Cromartie (you never know with that family).

Like the Cromarties, Kirkpatrick is at his best lined up in deep zone or man off the line of scrimmage. He’s not going to come up and bump and run very well because he’ll just be blown past, but if you give him some room to work with, very few receivers can run past him and he’s got excellent closing speed to come in and bust up short completions either with a tackle for a short gain or a drop after a big hit. He did very well against Reuben Randle in their two matchups this season and that’s the type of player he can absolutely dominate. Randle’s height is not an advantage against the 6-2 Kirkpatrick and he doesn’t have the elite speed to burn him.

There’s also the off the field problems with Kirkpatrick. He was arrested for marijuana possession earlier this year and while that’s not a huge concern, teams didn’t like how he handled it in interviews and didn’t feel they could trust him. That could land him in the 20s. Tennessee, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Denver are all options for him in the 20-25 pick range. I have a late first round grade on him all things considered. He has elite athleticism, but such a specific skill set and off the field problems that he falls into the late first round. I also have a late first round grade on him for this reason.

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Dream Draft 2011

 

This is a fun idea I saw in other places on the internet, a dream draft. The point is, to give myself the 16.5th pick (right in the middle of the round) in every round, and take the best available player on my board, not paying any attention to team need, and knowing who would be available in the next round. Let’s see some results.

1st round: CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

Amukamara inexplicably fell on draft day, but he was a consensus top 10 prospect among draftniks (though obvious not among NFL teams). I had him 7th so I snatch him up here at pick 16.5 before he can go to the Giants at 19.

2nd round: CB Brandon Harris (Miami)

Two cornerbacks? Why not? I don’t have anyone on my team. Harris went late 2nd to the Texans, but I was a huge fan of his abilities and had him ranked 12th. He’s short, lacks elite speed and elite ball skills, but he shuts guys down. Until Michael Floyd (a first round talent) burned him in Miami’s bowl game, he held his own with every receiver he faced, until Jonathan Baldwin, the 26th pick in the first round, who has at least 6 or 7 inches on him.

3rd round: DT Drake Nevis (LSU)

I had a borderline first round grade on Nevis as a 4-3 player, but he doesn’t fit a 3-4 at all. The Colts took him in the 3rd, but I don’t give them a chance to do so by taking him ahead of him. He’s a little small, but he fits the 4-3 under tackle role like a glove. He’s a good pass rusher and has a great motor.

4th round: MLB Casey Matthews (Oregon)

I had a 2nd round grade on Casey Matthews. Casey Matthews is Clay Matthews’ younger brother and he’s essentially Clay without Clay’s athleticism. He’s undersized and slow, but he’s got great instincts, he’s intelligent, and he’s extremely hard working. He won’t let you cut him. At the very least, he’s a strong special teamer and I think he can start at middle linebacker in this league for a long time. Middle linebacker is the one position on a defense where hustle and instincts are more valuable than 40 times, size, and leaping ability.

5th round: OLB Greg Jones (Michigan State)

Jones technically would have been available when I picked in the 6th, but Jerrell Powe would have been as well as he’s the 2nd best available at this point according to my board (of all players that wouldn’t be available in the 7th). I was shocked when Jones fell to the late 6th. Leave it to the Giants to snatch him up. I had a low first round grade on him and thought he was a lock for the first 3 rounds (and I wasn’t alone in that). I think he’s a future above average starter at any of the 3 linebacker positions.

6th round: DT Jerrell Powe (Mississippi)

Given the premium on nose tackles, I was surprised that Powe fell to round 6. I had a 3rd round grade on him and thought he wouldn’t get out of the first 4 rounds. He moves like 330 pounders shouldn’t be able to. He’s got character issues in his past, but he’s had a clean record for a couple years.

7th round: S Deunta Williams (North Carolina)

Williams presumably went undrafted because his leg injury. I’m not a doctor and I don’t have the x-rays or the medical on him, but at full health I had a 2nd round grade on the North Carolina safety so he’s worth the risk in the 7th round. I find it ridiculous he didn’t get drafted.

3 undrafted:

S DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson)

I don’t understand how McDaniel went undrafted. He probably would have been a 2nd round pick had he come out after his 9 interception junior season in 2010. He definitely had a down year as a senior, but I thought he was at least a 4th round value. The upside is definitely there. It just needs to be coached out him.

MLB Josh Bynes (Auburn)

What Casey Matthews was to Oregon, Bynes was to Auburn’s defense. He was the emotional leader of that defense, a very instinctual and hard working player that lacks elite athleticism. I’m not surprised he went undrafted. He didn’t even get invited to The Combine, but plenty of starters in the NFL today didn’t get invited to The Combine either and I think Bynes can be the next in that line.

CB Kendric Burney (North Carolina)

Short and slow is bad for cornerbacks so when Burney ran in the 4.7s at 5-9, I had him dropping out of day 2 into the 4th and 5th round. But undrafted? Anyone who watched the Senior Bowl knows this was the best defensive back there. Size and speed is important, but this guy has phenomenal technique and ball skills and figures to start as a Tampa 2 cornerback in the future.

 

Dream Draft

 

This is a fun idea I saw in other places on the internet, a dream draft. The point is, to give myself the 17th pick (right in the middle of the round) in every round, and take the best available player on my board, not paying any attention to team need, and knowing who would be available in the next round. Let’s see some results.

1st round- QB Jimmy Clausen

Perfect. Clausen was a franchise quarterback in my mind and my team of no one needs a quarterback. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. A good quarterback can mask other needs. A good quarterbacks opens up lanes for running backs, makes receivers look good, can make the offensive line look good, and put up points to take leads and allows your defense to blitz, create pressure, and force turnovers. Unfortunately, Clausen did not last to the 17th pick in the 2nd round. He went with the 16th pick in the 2nd to Carolina. However, I’m still more than happy to have him in the first.

2nd round- OT Charles Brown

Brown slipped out of the first round due to a couple of minor injury concerns and questions about lack of size. However, Brown a talented tackle who fits a zone blocking scheme perfectly. He should be a 10 year starter in the NFL at left tackle with good smart footwork and solid lateral agility. Getting a blindside protector for my quarterback is very helpful and it just so happens I can get a solid one here.

3rd round- OT Bruce Campbell

I swear I’m not going crazy over positional value. Campbell is my BPA at this point and happens to play a high positional value position so that’s even better. Campbell could be a left tackle in this league, but he’ll be a solid right tackle as well.

4th round- OLB/DE Eric Norwood

Norwood could serve the Brian Orakpo role on my team and I love what the ‘Skins did with Orakpo last year and hope that other defensive coordinators do similar things with similar players in the future. There were concerns about Orakpo’s ability to cover as a linebacker and to stop the run as an end so the Redskins stuck him at end on passing downs and at linebacker on running downs. Norwood is a similar player, albeit not quite as talented, but he can serve a similar role and be a starter on my team and create a strong pass rush. He’s also my best available out of any player left that wouldn’t be available in the 5th.

5th round- RB Jonathan Dwyer

I thought I was lower on Dwyer than most and when he fell all the way to the 6th, I was shocked. I guess NFL scouts were even more afraid of his option spread background and work ethic concerns than I was. However, he was very productive last year and he’s only 20 years old so I’ll give the kid a shot in the 5th.

6th round- WR Dezmon Briscoe

Like Danario Alexander (before the news of his nasty knee injury surfaced), I felt Dezmon Briscoe was productive enough last year to merit a shot in the mid rounds, despite concerns about his speed and the scheme he played in. Briscoe fell to the late 6th, but I’ll take him here. What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in strength as he looked like a running back in the open field last year. He had good hands on the outside last year too, though he struggled to make catches going over the middle at times.

7th round- CB/S Donovan Warren

I had a borderline first round grade on Warren so when he fell out of the draft completely because of concerns about his speed, people started to doubt me. However, the Jets snatched him as soon as the draft was over and now reports say that Warren may not only be competing for a starting job at free safety this offseason, but he may be the favorite to be their week 1 starter at free safety. Still doubt me?

 

Drayton Florence Bills

 

I don’t like giving long terms to players over the age of 30 unless they’re elite. Florence is not only not elite, he isn’t much more than an average starter. He’s only going to get worse as he turns 31 in December. I don’t think he’s worth 5 million per year now, let alone in 3 years after his contract is done. Why did the Bills draft all those cornerbacks when they were just planning on overpaying Florence to return?

Grade: D

 

Drake Nevis Scout

 

Defensive Tackle

LSU

6-1 298

Draft board overall prospect rank: #37

Draft board overall defensive tackle rank: #7

Overall rating: 80

40 time: 4.92

4/12/10: Drake Nevis is a talented player who is limited in terms of the amount of positions he can play as a defensive lineman, and thus could fall into the 3rd round. He lacks the elite height and size to move over to defensive end in a 3-4, even though he’s a proven pass rusher. I think he would get swallowed up by offensive tackles in the NFL so he can’t play that position. He is too light to play the 3-4 nose tackle so I don’t think he has a position in a 3-4 and 3-4 teams probably won’t even have him on their boards.

In a 4-3, he’s an under tackle and nothing else. Again, he’s too light to play the 4-3 nose. He’s a one gap penetrator only, but he’s very good at what he does. He’s feisty and has a track record of production in college with 7 sacks last season. He’s got a great motor and a great work ethic and he’s in good physical shape, but he struggles when run at and when you look at him, you see why. NFL teams who have seen him in person are turned off by just how small he is. He doesn’t look like an NFL defensive tackle.

Still, I grade him high because of his pass rushing ability and his work ethic. He is a perfect fit for a 4-3 under tackle as a one gap penetrator. He can get into the backfield and take down running backs behind the line of scrimmage. He’s a great tackler and he has good closing speed. Pass rushing is so valuable in the NFL and this guy can get after the quarterback from the inside of the defensive line. Worst case scenario, I think he’s a nickel rusher. He has a role in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Glenn Dorsey

 

Draft Pick Value Chart

What is this madness? Well, though it may look like something straight out of lost (4,8,15,16,23,42) it is actually the NFL Draft Pick Trade Value Chart. Basically, it is the excepted numerical value of each pick and it is very useful for trying to do draft day trades. Say you had the 13th pick and wanted to move down to 18th. Since the 13th pick has a value of 1150 and the 18th pick has a value of 900, you would expect a pick with a value of near 250 (68th pick) in return for your swap. An example of poor use of this chart, Eric Mangini. When he moved down through 3 trades from 5th to 21st in 2009, he should have gotten 900 points worth of value in return. Instead, he got the 52nd pick (380), the 191st pick (15), the 195th pick (13.4), and three players from the Jets. Add that up and for the trade to be fair according to this chart, those 3 players from the Jets had to equal 491.6 points (roughly the 41st pick). Something tells me Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Brett Ratliff aren’t worth an early 2nd rounder.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

1

3,000

33

580

65

265

97

112

129

43

161

27

193

14.2

2

2,600

34

560

66

260

98

108

130

42

162

26.6

194

13.8

3

2,200

35

550

67

255

99

104

131

41

163

26.2

195

13.4

4

1,800

36

540

68

250

100

100

132

40

164

25.8

196

13

5

1,700

37

530

69

245

101

96

133

39.5

165

25.4

197

12.6

6

1,600

38

520

70

240

102

92

134

39

166

25

198

12.2

7

1,500

39

510

71

235

103

88

135

38.5

167

24.6

199

11.8

8

1,400

40

500

72

230

104

86

136

38

168

24.2

200

11.4

9

1,350

41

490

73

225

105

84

137

37.5

169

23.8

201

11

10

1,300

42

480

74

220

106

82

138

37

170

23.4

202

10.6

11

1,250

43

470

75

215

107

80

139

36.5

171

23

203

10.2

12

1,200

44

460

76

210

108

78

140

36

172

22.6

204

9.8

13

1,150

45

450

77

205

109

76

141

35.5

173

22.2

205

9.4

14

1,100

46

440

78

200

110

74

142

35

174

21.8

206

9

15

1,050

47

430

79

195

111

72

143

34.5

175

21.4

207

8.6

16

1,000

48

420

80

190

112

70

144

34

176

21

208

8.2

17

950

49

410

81

185

113

68

145

33.5

177

20.6

209

7.8

18

900

50

400

82

180

114

66

146

33

178

20.2

210

7.4

19

875

51

390

83

175

115

64

147

32.6

179

19.8

211

7

20

850

52

380

84

170

116

62

148

32.2

180

19.4

212

6.6

21

800

53

370

85

165

117

60

149

31.8

181

19

213

6.2

22

780

54

360

86

160

118

58

150

31.4

182

18.6

214

5.8

23

760

55

350

87

155

119

56

151

31

183

18.2

215

5.4

24

740

56

340

88

150

120

54

152

30.6

184

17.8

216

5

25

720

57

330

89

145

121

52

153

30.2

185

17.4

217

4.6

26

700

58

320

90

140

122

50

154

29.8

186

17

218

4.2

27

680

59

310

91

136

123

49

155

29.4

187

16.6

219

3.8

28

660

60

300

92

132

124

48

156

29

188

16.2

220

3.4

29

640

61

292

93

128

125

47

157

28.6

189

15.8

221

3

30

620

62

284

94

124

126

46

158

28.2

190

15.4

222

2.6

31

600

63

276

95

120

127

45

159

27.8

191

15

223

2.3

32

590

64

270

96

116

128

44

160

27.4

192

14.6

224

2

My issues with this chart:

High draft picks are valued too high. So the 1st pick is worth two 7th picks? What?! Let’s take a look at the last 12 7th picks and the last 12 1st picks

1st

2011: Cam Newton

2010: Sam Bradford

2009: Matt Stafford

2008: Jake Long

2007: JaMarcus Russell

2006: Mario Williams

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning

2003: Carson Palmer

2002: David Carr

2001: Michael Vick

2000: Courtney Brown

7th

2011: Aldon Smith

2010: Joe Haden

2009: Darrius Heyward Bey

2008: Sedrick Ellis

2007: Adrian Peterson

2006: Michael Huff

2005: Troy Williamson

2004: Roy Williams (WR)

2003: Byron Leftwich

2002: Bryant McKennie

2001: Andre Carter

2000: Thomas Jones

I know the 1st pick group has a little more talent, but two times more? I would much rather have my pick of 4 of those 7th pick guys than 2 of those 1st pick guys.

Further showing this, Tom Brady was drafted with the 199th pick, value 11.8. I know Brady is an anomaly, but considering the 1st pick has a value of 3000, are you over 250 times more likely to draft a stud QB with the 1st pick than the 199th pick?

This is why so many of the teams that have had success this decade trade down. The Patriots do it every year and it’s no surprise that they lead the NFL in Super Bowl wins this decade.

 

 

 

 

Draft Overview Archive

The 2010 draft could be one of the more talented ones of the decade, not because college football has more talented NFL caliber players right now, but because more of them will declare. There could be a rookie pay scale in 2011 so players could lose millions if they stay in school, especially quarterbacks, even if they actually improve their draft stock by returning. We could see a lot more redshirt sophomores and juniors declare this year than most years.

This year’s defensive line class is interesting. Normally, the bulk of the good defensive line prospects are at defensive end, but this year, at least when you consider elite top 10 prospects, they are all, for the most part, at defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh might be the best collegiate defensive player in the country and Gerald McCoy is not far behind. Both fit into both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defensive system and both are incredibly mobile for their size. The defensive tackle class also has depth with big pass rushers such as Jared OdrickArthur Jones, and Brian Price. Derrick Morgan is my top rated defensive end prospect because of his size and agility combination. Brandon Graham is not far behind. Carlos Dunlap gets the hype, but he has not lived up to it this season and appears unmotivated on tape. He could be a Jamaal Anderson clone rather than a Mario Williams clone. Rush linebackers are plentiful in this draft class with guys such as Von MillerJerry Hughes, and my personal favorite as a sleeper, Jermaine Cunningham. Everson Griffen has great athleticism and could go in the first ten picks on upside alone as either a defensive end or rush linebacker.

This linebacking class is better than most. Travis Lewis, Greg Jones, and Sean Weatherspoon all have first round talent, but might not go there because of their position. All three can play outside linebacker in a 4-3, but Weatherspoon and Lewis can also play 3-4 middle linebacker. Rolando McClain has shot up my board to be my top rated middle linebacker. He is drawing premature comparisons to Ray Lewis, but those aren’t far off in terms of upside. Brandon Spikes is the big name middle linebacker, but I have concerns about his ability to defend the pass and his explosion. Eric Norwood has awful measurables, but could be a very good outside linebacker in either the 4-3 system or the 3-4 as a rush linebacker. He’ll have to make the transition from defensive end though because of his size. Rennie Curran covers the whole field well and is drawing premature comparisons to Derrick Brooks. He needs to bulk up, but could go in the 2ndround on upside alone.

My top three atop my cornerback board are very good first round prospects, but very different. Trevard Lindley has mastered the art of the man to man coverage and bump and run coverage, but doesn’t have good athleticism to play zone and is very small against the run. Ras-I Dowling is a natural zone corner with elite size, but struggles with man-to-man coverage. Joe Haden plays in a man-to-man scheme at Florida, but gets burnt too often for a first round prospect. However, he’s a freak athlete who is strong in run support and projects as a #1 zone corner at the next level. Kyle Wilson could go off the board in the early 2ndround. Javier Arenas is technically a corner, but projects as a fantastic kick returner at the next level and possibly a receiver. Syd’Quan Thomspon is an NFL ready nickel corner, but gets burnt too much to be an elite cornerback at the next level.

Eric Berry headlines an above average safety class. He is one of the smartest safeties I’ve ever scouted at this level. He has excellent hands, defends man-to-man, supports the run despite a small frame, and has amazing instincts. Earl Thomas is turning some heads at Texas with his excellent understanding of being a ball hawker, but is not a great run supporter. Taylor Mays is the big name, but I hate his fundamentals and see him as either a Roy Williams type safety or a cover 2 linebacker. He sadly may be the first safety off the board over Thomas and Berry who I like a lot more. Reshad Jones could make it 4 safeties in the first round and the 2nd round could be equally as promising with guys like Darrell Stuckey and Morgan Burnett. Myron Rolle is the wildcard. He has top fifteen pick potential, but hasn’t played in a year and has aspirations of being a neurosurgeon. 

 

The 2010 draft could be one of the more talented ones of the decade, not because college football has more talented NFL caliber players right now, but because more of them will declare. There could be a rookie pay scale in 2011 so players could lose millions if they stay in school, especially quarterbacks, even if they actually improve their draft stock by returning. We could see a lot more redshirt sophomores and juniors declare this year than most years.

With Sam Bradford done for the year with shoulder surgery, Jimmy Clausen is set to be the first quarterback off the draft board, which could mean he goes #1 overall. Sam Bradford shouldn’t fall far even with his shoulder surgery because of how many teams need quarterbacks early in the draft, but he’ll need to prove his arm at his pro day and his individual workouts and show scouts why they fell in love with him in the first place. Ryan Mallett could declare this year and go in the first round on potential alone. He has more upside than any quarterback in college football right now, but is extremely raw. Jake Locker is likely not as beloved by scouts as he is by ESPN, but he could go top ten as well, though I think that is a mistake. Tim Tebow has his doubters and I’m not quite one of those, but he has a bunch of huge fans, Wayne Weaver, Jaguars owner, Jon Gruden, unemployed coach, as well as Tony Dungy. In fact, the Jaguars have all but confirmed that, if available, they will draft Tebow in an attempt to sell tickets. Jevan Snead hurt himself by going back to school this year with a high amount of interceptions and a low completion percentage. Colt McCoy is hyped by ESPN, but has a very slim chance of going in the first round. He has the upside to be a Chad Pennington or Kyle Orton type player, but his downside is pretty bad. Tony Pike has the potential to go in the first round, but I doubt he does. He, like McCoy, is likely a 2nd or 3rd round prospect in the eyes of the scouts.

The running back class starts with two speed burners, CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best. They both have good speed, but Best has more power in his legs and Spiller is a better pass catcher and kick returner. Jonathan Dwyer represents the best power back in the draft class and may be the most complete every down back prospect in the draft class, but he plays in a weird offense so that hurts him. Evan Royster could go in the 2nd round and Ryan Matthews is quickly rising thanks to the fact that he leads college football in rushing yards. Joe McKnight has good straight line speed, but needs to improve other things like changing directions and breaking tackles. Toby Gerhart has good size, but doesn’t move well enough to be much more than a goal line back or fullback. Noel Devine is extremely fast and has good stats in college, but he’s smaller than Darren Sproles and doesn’t have a ton of a future in the NFL.

The first two wide receivers off the board this year could be two very quiet relatively unknown players, which is rare for wide receivers. Damian Williams is known for his route running and his fundamentals and Brandon LaFell is known for his size, his hands, and his run blocking. Williams is the only receiver I see as a first round lock, but 5 could go in the first, including LaFell, big talent, big ego Dez Bryant, who is suspended for the season for violating an NCAA personal conduct rule, Arrelious Benn who has been a major disappointment this season and should not go in the first 2 rounds in my opinion, and Golden Tate, who has the big time stats, but lacks elite size. Eric Decker, despite his foot injury, should go in the first two rounds as well. Dezmon Briscoe is the wild card. I personally love him, but his route running is very raw. I think he projects as a Miles Austin or Brandon Marshall type player in the NFL, one of those receivers who is as hard to bring down as a running back. He should go in the first 3 rounds, but his shot at the first round is slim. I do not believe this should be the case. Jermaine Gresham could go higher than any wide receiver, despite being a tight end, but not playing his season due to knee surgery could hurt him. He needs to reestablish himself in workouts, but he leads a relatively weak tight end class along with Dennis Pitta who is NFL ready, but does not have a huge upside.

The offensive line is not my specialty and I rarely go off the popular path with this position, but I tend to like USC’s Charles Brown more than most. He lacks elite size, but he is an amazing pass protector. His footwork, for someone his age is amazing and is comparable to Ryan Clady’s when he declared. Clady was a rookie of the year candidate last year as a left tackle. Russell Okung is the most complete left tackle in the class. Bryan Bulaga has the athleticism, but falls down too often to be an elite pass protector. Trent Williams has struggled at left tackle this year and may be a right tackle longterm despite amazing athleticism. Bruce Campbell could go top ten, but his history of injuries scares me off. Ciron Black and Sam Young should both be solid right tackles in the league for a long time. Anthony Davis and Mike Johnson are hybrid guys. They could play tackle, but may project longterm as left guards. Both have good size and are amazing run blockers. Selvish Capers’ athleticism is getting him some looks in the 2nd or 3rd round as a left tackle prospect and Jason Fox is one of the good, young up and comers at this position. He could leap into the first round with some luck as a natural left tackle, but might be 2nd round pick. Adam Ulatoski could also be targeted in the 2nd round as a future left tackle. Mike Iupati is the best pure guard in this draft class and should go in the 2nd round, though I have yet to see him play because Idaho is never on TV. Kristofer O’Dowd headlines a weak center class. This could be a very full first 2 rounds in terms of offensive lineman.

 

 

This draft class could be one of the best in the last decade. You may not know the names of most of the stars of this class yet, but you will, especially on the defensive end. Carlos Dunlap is probably the best overall defensive prospect since Mario Williams. Gerald McCoy is probably the best overall defensive line prospect since Glenn Dorsey and he may even be a better and more complete under tackle than Dorsey because he has better measurable speed. Eric Berry is the best safety prospect to come out in the last 10-15 years. He probably isn’t going to be better than Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed when he comes into the league, or maybe even ever, but in terms of best safety prospect, that title goes to him. There are very few safeties you can use a top 5 pick on and live to tell the tale. Berry is one of them. Sticking with safeties, the supremely athletic Taylor Mays could also go in the top 10, or even the top 5 depending on where Al Davis is drafting. Even though Al Davis loves him, he is still an amazing prospect, especially athletic. He is 6-4 225 and could run a 40 in the 4.3s. I would say that, with the exception of possibly Aaron Curry, those 4 guys are better than every defensive prospect in the 2009 draft class. Joe Haden and Trevard Lindley should headline a very good cornerback class, which is a big difference between this class and 2009’s. Lawrence Marsh and Marvin Austin are huge upside defensive linemen who were big time prospects with great athleticism coming out of high school, but haven’t gotten things going in their first 2 years in college. With big seasons, they could rocket to the top of draft boards.

On the offensive end, things are just as promising. Everyone knows about the Big 3, Tim TebowColt McCoyand Sam Bradfordbut in the shadow is young Jevan Snead. He led a Mississippi team that was not supposed to accomplish much to an amazing season as just a sophomore. Some scouts are already comparing him and his arm to Matt Stafford, this year’s #1. Snead isn’t going to go #1 because of the strength of this class, but the Stafford comparison isn’t far off. Many people are down on McCoy and Tebow because of the style of offensives they play. I like both of them, Tebow more so, but I still believe McCoy could become a pro bowler in the right system. Very few guys complete 77% of their passes and this includes guys who run spread offenses. As for Bradford, he is the real deal. He is the best quarterback prospect, in my opinion, since Eli Manning, and within his first few years he could emerge as a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback.

Jermaine Gresham is one of the best tight end prospects of the decade. He isn’t as good of a run blocker as Brandon Pettigrew or as athletic as Vernon Davis, but he makes plays all over the field and overall is an excellent tight end and a quarterback’s best friend. He is better than Jeremy Shockey was coming out of Miami and on par with Kellen Winslow in terms of the amount he could be sought after early in the draft. He’ll probably be a better tight end than either Shockey or Winslow in the long term. Running backs in this class are nothing special, but Jonathan Dwyer and CJ Spiller could become very successful backs in this league. Joe McKnight and Javhid Best both have blazing speed and will be available in the late 1st, early 2nd round range drawing them hundreds of comparisons to Chris Johnson between now and draft day 2010. I don’t see a lot of sleepers in the running back class, but I like DeMarco Murray who should be available in the 2nd round. Overall, it’s a pretty thin running back class. Arrelious Benn headlines a lackluster wide receiver class, but he should be a solid top 10 pick. Guys like Bryan BulagaRussell OkungTrent WilliamsCiron Black, and Sam Young could go in the first round as offensive tackles.

 

Drafting a QB2

 

 

Before reading this, it would be a good idea to brief yourself on my Fantasy Quarterbacks article

Drafting a backup quarterback is an often overlooked, but it can actually have a huge impact on your fantasy team. With any luck, you’ll only have to use your backup quarterback once throughout the season (your QB1’s bye week). How can you make sure that your team doesn’t miss a beat with your QB2 in the lineup? Make sure he has an easy matchup during the bye week of your start. For the sake of this article, we’ll call an easy matchup, Detroit, St. Louis, Kansas City, Miami, Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. All of those 8 teams should be among the worst at stopping the pass this year and with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions, they were all the worst against the pass last year as well. In order to be listed on this list, a player must not be a part of my top 15 quarterbacks. We’re talking about players who are most likely going to be available when it comes time to take your backup QB (11th-13th round).

Week 4

QB1s on bye: Tony Romo, Brett Favre

Vs. Seattle: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

If you have Romo or Favre, you may be out of luck in terms of using this technique to find a backup. I wouldn’t feel safe with either of these quarterbacks as my backup. Bradford hasn’t won the job, hasn’t played since last October, hasn’t run a pro style offense before, and has a poor supporting cast. Feeley has done decently in the past, but with significantly better supporting casts. As with Bradford, you also don’t know if Feeley will win the job. Stick to drafting a QB2 by traditional means if you have Romo or Favre, and by traditional means, I mean BPA.

Week 5

QB1s on bye: Tom Brady

Vs. Jacksonville: Trent Edwards/Brian Brohm/Ryan Fiztpatrick

Vs. Buffalo: David Garrard

Vs. Cleveland: Matt Ryan

Vs. St. Louis: Matt Stafford

Vs. Detroit: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

If you have Brady as your QB1, you’re in luck. This strategy will work perfectly. I would suggest staying away from the mess in Buffalo, as well as Bradford/Feeley and Ryan might not be available as a QB2 in most leagues, but Stafford vs. the Rams looks very promising, and for a safer, more proven choice, try Garrard vs. Buffalo.

Week 6

QB1s on bye: Carson Palmer

Vs. Cleveland: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. Oakland: Alex Smith

Vs. Jacksonville: Vince Young

I expect Leftwich to win the job in Pittsburgh for the first 6 weeks (while Big Ben is suspended), but he could be risky. Dixon could beat him out or steal the job by then, and there’s a slim chance Big Ben gets his suspension shortened, in which case Leftwich would be on the bench. If everything goes well, Leftwich should have a decent week against the Browns. Smith vs. Oakland and Vince Young vs. Jacksonville are safer bets though.

Week 7

QB1s on bye: Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub

Vs. Jacksonville: Matt Cassel

Vs. Miami: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. St. Louis: Josh Freeman

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. Oakland: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

I would stay away from the Denver mess, with all of the other options. Orton should be the starter week 7, but there’s no shortage of guys who could steal the job by then, and he doesn’t have a lot to work with in the receiving corps. Leinart and Anderson are risky too, and not just because both aren’t very good. We still don’t know who is the starter there. As I said with Leftwich under the week 6 write up, there’s a lot of variables that would go into him being the starter week 7, and I wouldn’t take the chance this week with two other good options. Cassel’s best game in 2009 was against the Jaguars and I think he should have another solid week against their miserable secondary this year. Freeman vs. St. Louis is still my favorite of the group, but it’s close.

Week 8

QB1s with byes: Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb

Vs. Kansas City: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. St. Louis: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore

Stay away from the Buffalo mess, but I do expect Moore to still be the starter week 8 against St. Louis and that figures to be promising. John Fox always gives vets the first shot at jobs so unless Moore struggles out of the gate, he’ll still be the guy week 8.

Week 9

QB1s with byes: Donovan McNabb

Vs. Detroit: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Oakland: Matt Cassel

Oakland doesn’t have the best pass defense, but Cassel was 43 for 73 for 457 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 picks against the Raiders last year in two starts. Doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. I’d go with Sanchez if I was a McNabb owner.

Week 10

QB1s with byes: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Jason Campbell

Vs. Detroit: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. Cleveland: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Miami: Vince Young

Vs. Kansas City: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. St. Louis: Alex Smith

With so many choices, I would rather go with the ones I was pretty sure would have a job on week 10. Sanchez, Young, and Smith all make great choices for owners of Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, and Campbell.

Now, this isn’t the only QB2 strategy. With QB1s you aren’t too sure about (meaning low end QB1s) it is often best to pair them with a high upside QB2, in case your low end QB1 starts playing like a QB2. Chances are, between your low end QB1 and your high upside QB2, you’ll have one functional starter without having to draft a quarterback too early. For the sake of this, I’ll call Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning, and Kevin Kolb (QBs 12-15) my low end QB1s.

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

I am putting these three together. All 3 are 2009 1st round picks who struggled mightly as rookies. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll be bad this year. We’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks struggle as rookies (see Peyton Manning) and bounce back and have good career. It’s anyone’s guess which of these three will break out this year, but that’s the fun. All 3 of these guys have the upside to have QB1 type seasons. Some notes, Freeman has reportedly put the most work in this offseason, Sanchez has the best supporting cast, and in my opinion Stafford has the best arm. Freeman is also going significantly later than Stafford and Sanchez in fantasy drafts, so he could be a better value.

Alex Smith

Vince Young

I’m grouping this pair together because both are former top 3 draft picks that took over midseason last year and did decently. If either one can start all 16 games and improve their play a bit over last year, he’d be a QB1 type fantasy player. Spread the stats from Young’s 10 starts over 16 games and you get 3006 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 picks. Spread the stats from Smith’s 10 starts over 16 games and you get 3430 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 18 picks.

Chad Henne

Henne had 274 completions in 451 attempts for 2878 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 14 picks last year, in 13 and a half games. Do some crazy math and you get 331 for 535 for 3411 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 17 picks. How much better could Chad Henne be this year than last year? Take a look at Kyle Orton. Going from Chicago to Denver, Orton went from a mediocre receiving corps, to a mediocre receiving corps plus Brandon Marshall. Orton threw for 830 more yards, 3 more scores, without having any more picks. There are plenty more reasons why Henne should improve with Marshall than was the case with Orton. Henne has a stronger arm to hit Marshall downfield. Henne isn’t learning a new scheme. Henne is going into only his 2nd year as a starter, 3rd year in the league, and figures to get better simply from experience. Now, some of you may say, yeah, but Orton threw 76 more times between 2008 and 2009. This is true, but this is also a result of playing with Marshall. When you have a true deep threat, teams tend to pass more. Miami will pass more this year, which means more attempts for Henne. More attempts, more experience, better effectiveness, Henne should definitely be on your high upside list. I don’t have him listed as a top 15 quarterback, but he could end up there and if you have a low end QB1 (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler), Henne would make a nice backup.

Matt Moore

Is he unproven? Sure. But against fairly talented competition, Moore had 990 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 pick in 5 starts last year. Spread that out 16 games and you get 3169 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 3 picks. I’ll assume the picks will be higher, but still. If he can hold off Clausen for the starting job all year and avoid falling into the same trap Delhomme fell into (chuck the ball deep to Smith every play), he could be a solid fantasy option. And if he loses his job, just drop him and pick up Clausen. Clausen is a very NFL ready player, taking over a good supporting cast. Think Matt Ryan 2008. 

 

 

Draft Grades: Trades

 

Only deals involving 2010 1st round picks

Miami Heat trade the 18th pick (PG Eric Bledsoe) and SG Daequan Cook to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 32nd pick

Deal for Miami: A pure salary dump, they dump the 3 million or so they would have had to pay the 18th pick, as well as Cook’s 2.2 million dollar cap number, and get the 32nd pick, which won’t command nearly as much money. They save about 4 million in this deal and I don’t think they get all that worse of a package. The difference between the 18th pick and the 32nd pick is not as much as you’d think and Cook is a decent contributor, but easily replaceable. This deal sets them up to do a lot more in free agency, in terms of possibly adding the trinity, LeBron, Wade, and Bosh.

Grade: A

Deal for Oklahoma City: Using some of their salary cap room to add vets, the Thunder get Cook, who can play a role for them, and they get him relatively cheap. Excluding the fact that they later moved the 18th pick for a 2011 1st rounder from the Clippers, I still think this is a solid move.

Grade: B

Chicago Bulls trade the 17th pick (PF Kevin Seraphin) and PG Kirk Hinrich to the Washington Wizards for cash

Deal for Chicago: Pure salary dump. If this move is the one that allows them to sign Bosh and LeBron (which it looks like it could), it’s genius. They may still need to move Luol Deng first before they can afford both of them if Bosh demands a max deal. Hinrich was nothing more than Rose’s backup and the 17th pick is not as valuable as it sounds. Mid first round picks are role players and projects (in Seraphin’s case, it’s project).

Grade: A

Deal for Washington: I kind of see what they were trying to do here. They figured no one would want to sign in Washington in free agency anyway, for fear or being shot, so they used their cap space to trade for a player and got a draft pick in the process. Not a horrible idea, but did they need Hinrich? They already have John Wall at Gilbert Arenas, at point guard, plus Foye who can play there. Did they need another? 9 million dollars of cap space is a lot and this may take them out of the sweepstakes for getting a player like David Lee, who I would much rather want than Hinrich. Seraphin is widely considered a big project, but he does save this deal from being a complete F.

Grade: D

New Orleans Hornets trade the 11th pick (C Cole Aldrich) and SG Morris Peterson to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 21st pick (PF Craig Brackins) and the 26th pick (SF Quincy Pondexter)

Deal for New Orleans: There wasn’t anyone the Hornets were enamored with at 11 and they didn’t really need a starting caliber player, but rather some wing depth and interior depth, so they traded down, got two picks, filled two needs with those two picks, and dumped Morris Peterson’s salary in the process.

Grade: A

Deal for Oklahoma City: They needed a center and Aldrich was better than any center they could have gotten with one of their later picks, but I don’t think Aldrich was quite worth what they gave up, two first rounders, and 6.6 million of cap space. This takes them out of the David Lee sweepstakes, a sweepstakes they looked like the favorite to win. They could have gotten a decent center project or two with their later picks.

Grade: C

 

Portland Trailblazers trade SF Martell Webster to the Minnesota Timberwolves for SF Ryan Gomes and the 16th pick (SF Luke Babbitt)

Deal for Portland: Last year, Webster scored 9.4 points per game, 3.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.55 blocks, and 0.49 steals, shot 40.5% from the field, 37.3% from three, and 81.3% from the line. Gomes, who plays the same position, had 10.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.82 steals, 0.21 steals, shot 44.7% from the field, 37.2% from three, and 82.5% from the line. Webster is younger and may have a little bit more upside as a former upside pick, but if he hasn’t come around by now, I don’t think he will. I may have done this deal straight up, Webster for Gomes. Getting the 16th pick as a throw in only makes it sweeter.

Grade: A

Deal for Minnesota: Basically you’re trading a decent player for a decent player at the same position and throwing in a mid first round pick. Why? The only thing that keeps this from a fail is Webster’s upside, but he is 23 with 5 years experience so it may be time to give up on him as someone who’s going to be a good player in this league.

Grade: D

Oklahoma City Thunder trade the 18th pick (PG Eric Bledsoe) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a 2011 1st round pick

Deal for Oklahoma City: They got this pick when they moved up from the early 2nd to the 18th pick in the first, in the Miami Daequan Cook salary dump, and now they may have turned it into a 2011 lottery pick, a class that figures to be more talented than this one, because the Clippers don’t look like a playoff team in 2011.

Grade: A

Deal for Los Angeles Clippers: I get the need for a backup point guard with Baron Davis’ health issues, but I don’t see the need to take one here and give up what could be a future lottery pick. They could have gotten a solid one in free agency or the 2nd round. However, if they are able to pull off a Baron Davis salary dump deal with someone and can entice a max contract free agent to LA, this will look brilliant. I don’t see that happening though.

Grade: C

New Jersey Nets trade the 27th pick (SG Jordan Crawford) and the 31st pick (C Tibor Pleiss) to the Atlanta Hawks for the 24th pick (SF Damion James)

Deal for New Jersey: James is one of the more overlooked players in this draft class and I can see him being a starter for this team longterm, so I see why they moved up, but they may have given up a bit too much. The 31st pick is a lot to move up 3 spots from 27th to 24th. James may have been there at 27 and even if he wasn’t, bad teams that need a lot of things should not get this enamored about a guy who slipped to the mid 20s.

Grade: B

Deal for Atlanta: Atlanta doesn’t have a lot of guys under contract for next year so they turn one pick into two and win in terms of value. The NBA does not have a trade value chart like the NFL, but if they did, the Hawks would be clear winners here.

Grade: A

Memphis Grizzlies trade the 25th pick (SG Dominique Jones) to the Dallas Mavericks for cash

Deal for Memphis: I don’t like the concept of giving away a pick for nothing, just so you don’t have to pay the pick, but I can kind of see why the Grizzlies did it in this situation. They had two other firsts and not a ton of needs.

Grade: B

Deal for Dallas: I don’t see how Jones fits into the mix as a Maverick, unless there’s a trade that clears up their backcourt, but you’re getting a good player for pretty much nothing and it’s not like the Mavericks are pressed for cash.

Grade: A

 

Draft Grades: 21-30

 

21. New Orleans Hornets- PF Craig Brackins

Another pick acquired in a trade, Brackins is a solid pick for a Hornets team that needed interior depth. Brackins strikes me as a Channing Frye type player at the next level, not a power guy, but a guy who can hit the 15-18 foot jumper with ease. He might not be the exact type of big man I would have liked to have seen them take, but he gives them depth, he gives them an interesting option on the pick and roll with Chris Paul, and he fits the range.

Grade: B

22. Portland Trailblazers- SG Elliot Williams

Williams gives them a nice combo guard and bench scorer type player, though I think they would have been better off taking a guy like Dominique Jones, Willie Warren, or even Terrico White to fill that need. Plus, I can’t say he filled their biggest need, interior depth. Not best available, not their biggest need, not the best pick.

Grade: C

23. Washington Wizards- SF Trevor Booker

Grading as if they drafted him 23rd, not the Timberwolves who originally drafted him and then traded him, this is still a very bad pick. Booker was not a first round prospect and I can find plenty of people who agree with me. He didn’t even really fill a need as the Wizards still badly need interior help and a shotblocker/rebounder.

Grade: D

24. New Jersey Nets- SF Damion James

Acquired in a trade from Atlanta, the Nets take James. James can compete for the starting small forward job on this team right away and if not, he can fill a role off the bench. James doesn’t need a lot of work and I think he was one of the more underappreciated players in this draft class.

Grade: A

25. Dallas Mavericks- SG Dominique Jones

Jones is a good player fitting of this spot, but with guys like Jason Kidd, Jose Juan Barea, Rodrique Beaubois, Jason Terry, DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler all capable of playing guard very well, did they need another guard? I won’t give this a bad grade, because I can see 2 or three of those guys being packaged and shipped somewhere in a sign and trade for a big time star. A package of Caron Butler’s 2011 expiring contract, Jason Terry’s 2012 expiring contract, Beaubois, and Erick Dampier’s 2011 expiring contract could be enticing for a team with a superstar free agent and that would make this pick look genius.

Grade: B

 

26. New Orleans Hornets- SF Quincy Pondexter

Pondexter gives the Hornets an athletic, long swingman to add some athleticism and defense to their wings. I thought that was their biggest need coming into this draft.

Grade: A

27. Atlanta Hawks- SG Jordan Crawford

It looks like Joe Johnson is leaves and Crawford will help patch that holes in one of two ways. He could start at shooting guard and allow 2010 6th man of the year Jamal Crawford to stay in that 6th man role. Or, he could take over Crawford’s 6th man role and allow Crawford to play shooting guard.

Grade: A

28. Memphis Grizzlies- PG Grievis Vasquez

The Grizzlies needed a good backup point guard and Vazquez was one of the best point guards available, but not the best.

Grade: B

29. Orlando Magic- C Daniel Orton

Nothing wrong with taking Orton 29th. I was glad to see he fell this far. He didn’t play much at Kentucky last year because of his offensive struggles, but if he had stayed another year and worked on his offensive game, and taken the starting center role, he could have been a top 5 pick in 2011. He is a former top recruit. Taking him in the top 15 would have been a big mistake, but 29th is the right range. That being said, if he fulfills his potential in Orlando, he’s still a center. That may be the one position they didn’t need with Superman Dwight Howard and highly paid backup Marcin Gortat. They could have used this pick to get an NBA ready role player (Darington Hobson) who would help them try to win the East next year, but they didn’t.

Grade: D

30. Minnesota Timberwolves- SF Lazar Heyward

Last year, the Timberwolves spent the 5th and 6th picks on point guards. This year, they added three small forwards in the first round, Wesley Johnson (4th) Martell Webster (trade) and now Heyward. Johnson was a good pick at the time as it was a need and Webster I can kind of see, as he is a nice backup who can play some 2 guard, but a 3rd small forward. That doesn’t make sense. They still need a big shot blocking center and a scorer/create your own shot type player. I wouldn’t want any part of this franchise if I was Ricky Rubio.

Grade: D