Spotlight #1: Boston College MLB Luke Kuechly

Spotlight #2: Clemson DE Andre Branch 

1^st quarter

14:51: Branch run at, disengages, helps stuff the runner for a short gain.

10:22: Touchdown goes over Kuechly’s head, doesn’t notice a guy get open behind him. He needs to show better awareness than that.

9:26: Branch pancaked.

9:10: Kuechly with his first tackle, this one 6 yards away from the line on a quarterback keeper.

8:13: Kuechly with a tackle on a short completion.

7:56: Botched snap, Kuechly explodes up the middle with a tackle for a loss after the recovery.

7:16: Kuechly fights off a block, gets a tackle on a 3 yard run up the middle.

6:38: Kuechly helps finish off a pass catcher short, on a check down. Now 4^th and 1.

5:43: Donnie Fletcher, a cornerback, and the other highly rated prospect on Boston College’s defense, forces a huge drop with a huge hit.

5:32: Kuechly in on another tackle on 3^rd down, forcing Clemson to kick a field goal.

4:47: Branch draws a double team, allows another defensive lineman to get in on a strip sack. Recovered by the defense, Clemson.

2:40: Branch forced off a running lane with a double team.

0:19: Branch with a quarterback pressure, albeit on a screen pass.

2^nd quarter

13:16: Kuechly could have had another tackle, but he’s tripped up in pursuit by his own teammate.

12:37: Kuechly can’t cover Dwayne Allen. Very few can. This guy is the top tight end in this draft class and a potential first rounder should the junior declare.

11:41: Kuechly juked out badly by a ball carrier.

8:36: Branch in on a tackle for no gain on a keeper.

3:07: Branch is just short on a dive tackle try.

1:55: Branch gets pressure into the backfield, but it’s a run up the middle, touchdown. A little too overaggressive here by Branch.

1:04: Kuechly sticks his nose in on a short run up the middle.

0:42: Kuechly can’t quite shake a block in time to stop the ball carrier before a first down, but still gets the tackle anyway.

0:20: Kuechly in coverage, allows catch even with an uncalled pass interference on Kuechly. He’s having trouble in coverage.

3^rd quarter

14:21: Kuechly with another tackle but it’s after a sizable gain through the air. Not his fault on the completion this time though.

10:23: Branch with a combined tackle, but not before a 9 yard gain on first down.

9:13: Branch near a sack, forces quarterback to get rid of it, picked. That’s better than a sack.

9:07: Kuechly in on a short stuff near Clemson’s end zone. Close to a safety.

8:12: Kuechly picks up the fumble, runs it in short for a touchdown, but the running back is ruled down by contact afterwards. Still a nice effort and an instinctive play to get that one.

7:59: Kuechly on another tackle when Clemson runs up the middle with it. Tonight, if BC’s defensive line doesn’t stuff the ball carrier, Kuechly has. And this is no slouch at running back. Andre Ellington is very good and they’ve kept him in check.

5:58: Branch comes off the edge quickly, quarterback pressure and hit, but hit with what, in my opinion, was a bullshit roughing the passer penalty.

4:47: Kuechly with a tackle on the outside. For as many tackles as Kuechly has, he hasn’t had a lot on the outside. He’s not looking like a sideline to sideline player.

3:20: Kuechly makes another stop.

2:37: Kuechly showing some sideline to sideline speed here to get in on a tackle on the outside.

1:17: Kuechly with another tackle on a run up the middle. You can’t break this guy’s tackles once he initiates contact.

0:25: Branch in the backfield with a tackle for a loss. So quick and powerful off the snap.

4^th quarter

11:24: Andre Ellington has been kept in check all night by Luke Kuechly among others, but this time he runs away from Kuechly, 35 yard touchdown.

8:40: Branch looks comfortable dropping into coverage, at least on the occasions he’s been asked to. He certainly has the athleticism to play rush linebacker at 6-5 260.

8:12: Branch hits the quarterback as he throws, while rushing from an upright position, something else he’d have to do as a rush linebacker.

7:38: Branch misses the sack on his first try, but does not give up, spins off a block and gets a combined sack from behind. He’s playing very well with drive with Boston College having to pass every play. He’s clearly much better as a pass rusher than anything else.

5:41: Branch, swim move, gets pressure on a failed 4^th down completion by Boston College.

5:33: Kuechly unable to disengage and tackle on his first try, but recovers and combines for a tackle after a medium sized run.

5:05: Kuechly finishes off a guy on a stuff at the line.

4:20: Kuechly relentless in pursuit on an outside tackle after the receiver catches the ball in the flat, tackle for a loss.

0:00: Kuechly officially had 16 tackles in this game, but it felt like at least 20. He’s one of the best, if not the best, tackler in college football. You don’t break his tackles and he’s around the ball on almost every play. Andre Ellington is one of the premier backs in college football, but with the exception of a 35 yard run on a play away from Kuechly, Ellington managed just 82 yards on 21 carries tonight and Kuechly is a big part of that reason.

Kuechly does struggle in coverage and he’s doesn’t have great sideline to sideline ability. I think he’s more of a middle linebacker than an outside linebacker at the next level because he doesn’t have elite speed, but at 235 pounds, he’d be a pretty small middle linebacker. Normally small middle linebackers make up for it in coverage, but he was terrible in coverage today. I’m obviously giving him a first round grade and a high first round grade at that because of his run stuffing abilities on inside runs, but I don’t see him as being a big future Pro Bowler type. The commentators today compared him to Brian Urlacher tonight and I don’t see that at all. He’s more of a Paul Posluszny type.

As for Andre Branch, he definitely showed great pass rushing ability and he could get in the first round on his ability to rush the passer. He wasn’t great against the run, but he had his moments and he looked solid in coverage for teams looking at him as a 3-4 rush linebacker. I just need to see a little bit more consistency from him. He had one amazing game with 4 sacks against Virginia Tech last year, but I want more consistency from him. If he can have a few more good games, he’s going to get a first round grade from me.

Two other NFL prospects, Donnie Fletcher and Dwayne Allen, had notable games. Fletcher had a ton of trouble with true freshman sensation Sammy Watkins, who caught 7 passes for 152 yards and a score even though Tajh Boyd had to leave with injury midway through the game. Allen, meanwhile, had 4 catches for 49 yards. Kuechly had a lot of trouble covering him. Allen definitely has the athleticism, the abilities, and the numbers to take advantage of this weak tight end class and possible move up into the first round. He has 22 catches for 340 yards and 4 scores on the season.

About a month ago all the talk for the first pick was about Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh. I did not do any comparison or debate between which of them was better for one simple reason, I didn’t think either of them had a shot at the #1 pick unless the Rams were really stupid and passed on a franchise quarterback for a franchise defensive tackle. A month has passed and, sure enough, all the talk is about the Rams taking a quarterback #1. Even Todd McShay, notorious NFL Draft bandwagoner, has a quarterback going #1 overall. The issue I’m talking about here is which quarterback they should take. Every one and their dog has Sam Bradford going #1, but I have taken a controversial approach to the Bradford/Clausen debate, by talking Jimmy Clausen. I know numbers aren’t everything, but here are some numbers to support it. I will compare Sam Bradford’s best season as a Sooner (2008) to Jimmy Clausen’s best season as a member of the Fighting Irish (2009).

Completion Percentage

Bradford: 67.9%

Clausen: 68.0%

YPA

Bradford: 9.77

Clausen: 8.76

TD/INT

Bradford: 50/8

Clausen: 28/4

Now, you’ve probably noticed that those numbers are very similar. However, take these things into account. Bradford’s season was 2008, Clausen’s was 2009. Since Bradford’s amazing season, he has had 2 shoulder separations and 1 shoulder surgery. Clausen played his 2009 season with a foot injury. Clausen played 2009 in a Pro Style offense, throwing Pro Style routes from under center, something he’ll have to do in the NFL. Bradford did not. Bradford played in a scheme that not only doesn’t convert to the NFL, but is notorious for producing bad NFL quarterbacks. There isn’t a lot of guess work with Clausen. He had all of his success in a Pro Style offense, which means he’s a lot more likely to pan out than Bradford. Clausen played his 2009 season with about half the talent around him that Bradford had, Bradford being supported by the league’s best offensive line and one of the league’s best running game (2779 yards 45 touchdowns). Speaking of offensive lines, take a look at how many sacks each quarterbacks took during their best season.

Sacks

Bradford: 11

Clausen: 24

Clausen did all of that with at least twice the pressure than Bradford had in his face. In the NFL, both of these quarterbacks are going to go to teams that are bad and hence, teams that have bad offensive lines. Why wouldn’t you want the guy used to producing in harsh conditions, in a Pro Style offense, with little talent around him, over the guy who is used to producing in relatively easy conditions, in a shotgun gimmick offense, with tons of talent around him.

Record

Bradford: 11-2

Clausen: 6-6

Record in games decided by less than 7

Bradford: 0-0

Clausen: 4-6

The only area Bradford has Clausen beat is team record. However, that wasn’t all his fault. The defense supporting him wasn’t great and, considering Clausen led the offense, with no running game, to 30.1 points per game, it’s hard to blame Clausen, though as the quarterback, he does deserve some blame. Clausen lost all 6 games by 7 points or less, which shows he didn’t step up in the clutch enough, but he also did win 4 games in the clutch. Bradford? Well, he was so sheltered at Oklahoma in 2008 that he never played a game decided by less than 7 points. We don’t know how Bradford performs in the clutch. He has never been tested.

I know what you’re thinking. Bradford had two great seasons and Clausen only had one. While one of my major knocks on Clausen is the fact that he’s a bit of a one year wonder, Bradford still did come out of a scheme where everyone had a good year as a quarterback. Look at Landry Jones, Bradford’s replacement when he went down with injury this year.

Jones had a 58% completion percentage with 26 touchdowns to 14 picks and a 7.1 YPA, not great, but also pretty good for a freshman. Let’s take a look at Oklahoma’s last ten quarterbacks in the Bob Stoops era.

2009: Landry Jones 58% 26 touchdowns 14 picks 7.1 YPA

2008: Sam Bradford 68% 50 touchdowns 8 picks 9.8 YPA

2007: Sam Bradford 69% 36 touchdowns 8 picks 9.2 YPA

2006: Paul Thompson 61% 22 touchdowns 11 picks 7.9 YPA

2005: Rhett Bomar 54% 10 touchdowns 10 picks 6.6 YPA

2004: Jason White 65% 35 touchdowns 9 picks 8.2 YPA

2003: Jason White 62% 40 touchdowns 10 picks 8.5 YPA

2002: Nate Hybl 58% 24 touchdowns 8 picks 7.0 YPA

2001: N/A (could not find)

2000: Josh Heupel 65% 20 touchdowns 15 picks 7.6

Guess how many combined NFL starts that group has? 0

Yes, Bradford is the best of this group, but by how much. Oklahoma’s scheme is known for making quarterbacks look better than they actually are.

The final point is strength of schedule. Clausen did not play Bradford’s 2008 schedule in 2009, but he wasn’t far off.

Bradford’s 6 toughest games

Florida

Texas

Kansas

Texas Tech

Oklahoma State

Missouri

Stats 168-245 (69%) 2169 yards (8.9 YPA) 20 TD 4 INT

Clausen’s 6 toughest games

USC

Washington

Connecticut

Stanford

Nevada

Boston College

Stats 141-206 (68%) 1912 yards (9.3 YPA) 17 TD 1 INT

Not exactly the same strength of schedule, but Clausen was better in tougher games than in normal games whereas Bradford was not. Also, when you consider the difference between the good teams Clausen played and the great teams Bradford played is offensively and not defensively, the difference in the strength of schedule is not so profound.

In conclusion, Clausen is proven in a Pro Style offense in tougher conditions through injury, whereas Bradford is proven in a College Style offense in much easier than normal conditions. Clausen struggled somewhat in close games, but at least he played close games, whereas Bradford did not. Bradford comes from a scheme that inflates quarterbacks stats and does not produce good quarterbacks, whereas Jimmy Clausen comes from a traditional West Coast Offense system, which he may have to run in the NFL, considering how popular it is becoming (St. Louis who has the first pick runs it). Clausen stepped up bigger in bigger games, whereas Bradford was about the same in tougher games than in normal games.

This isn’t saying I don’t like Bradford. I think of Bradford as an Eli Manning type player, a player who is smart and can magnify the talent around him, making he will only be just a little better than the players around him. When Eli Manning was first drafted to a struggling team, he made them just a little bit better. Once they added more talent around him, he took them to the Super Bowl, but when Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg, he struggled again going 8-9 since that incident. I see Clausen more as a traditional gunslinger, a Tony Romo, or if you want an example of one who runs a West Coast offense, Aaron Rodgers. He lacks both of their mobility, but other than that, they are very similar quarterbacks and Clausen should have similar success. I tend to go with the Romo comparison a little bit more because people don’t like him (and people don’t like Clausen) and because Romo is not quite a proven winner yet (though this year was definitely a step in the right direction).  

Defensive End/3-4 Defensive End

East Carolina

6-3 288

40 time: 4.75

Draft board overall prospect rank: #134

Draft board 3-4 defensive end rank: #12

Overall rating: 63*

            4/8/10: CJ Wilson is one of the more under the radar players in this draft class. He didn’t have a great statistic season last year in terms of sacks, but he got some good pressure on the quarterback consistently and totaled 10.5 tackles for loss to go with 5.5 sacks. He finished the season strong showing the flashes of brilliance that earned him 10.5 sacks as a junior in 2008. He’s strong against the run at 290, with the potential to be even stronger given how fit he is, and given his long arms and strong motor. He has very underrated athleticism with 4.75 speed at 6-3 288 and can make plays in space. He can drop into coverage very well for his size and can guard some running backs for a little bit. His size and speed allow him to play multiple position. He could play a 3-4 as an end, but I think he’d fit best in a 4-3 as a left end who moves inside in nickel sets or on clear passing downs. He hurries the quarterback with great consistency and has done that from multiple spots on the line and he possesses a great bull rush. He is very good at freeing himself up for the tackle and put together a very solid amount of tackles for his size over the last 2 years with 116. He sheds blocks well and chases well. He lacks an elite first step or great explosiveness off of the line. Wilson is probably looking at the late 3^rd or early 4^th round after his strong combine performance and he is as underrated in the draft community as his school, East Carolina, which, in addition to producing Chris Johnson a few years ago, had one of the best NFL ready lines in the NCAAs last year.

NFL Comparison: Jarvis Green

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

When the Buffalo Bills drafted CJ Spiller with the 9^th overall pick in the 2010 Draft, it was one of the most head scratching moves in the draft, aside from the Tyson Alualu selection one pick later. I don’t know why the Jags would take a guy who was widely regarded as a 2^nd round pick, and the very most a late first rounder, at 10. If they were going to make a reach, why not reach for Tim Tebow, who, by the way leads the NFL in jersey sales since he’s been drafted and definetely would have helped the financially scrapped Jaguars, regardless of whether or not Tebow actually became a great quarterback. He’s a Jacksonville native who had thousands of people lining up to buy his autograph for $160 a pop for charity just a few months before the draft.Tebow won’t even be playing for the Broncos that much when the Broncos come to Jacksonville week 1, but that game is almost already sold out. If the country made him the highest selling jersey, and the city of Jacksonville lined up all day to buy his autograph for at least 2 times what a ticket would cost, and the city of Jacksonville has already almost sold out the stadium to watch Tebow play backup quarterback for the road team , you don’t think he could have sold out most, if not all, home games for the Jaguars in 2010, even though the Jags only had one sellout all last year? But, I digress. I think a lot of people out there already understand that what the Jaguars did was a mistake, but I’m here to talk about what the Bills did with Spiller.

If you’re going to use a top ten pick on a running back, in 2010 when running backs are getting less and less important, you better make sure that he can carry the ball 300 times and that you need him to carry the ball 300 times. I have some doubts about Spiller’s ability to carry the ball 300 times, considering he’s 200 pounds and his career high in carries is 216, but my doubts sometimes don’t mean anything. I know the Bills don’t need Spiller to carry the ball 300 times. The Bills rushing offense ranked 9^th in the league in terms of YPC last year. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are talented backs. Don’t believe me? Ask the Buffalo Bills, who, according the John Clayton, are planning to give CJ Spiller 12 carries a game. Space that over 16 games, that’s 192 carries, nowhere close to 300. Based on that, I would strongly assume the Bills either don’t think Spiller can carry the load for a team or that they think he doesn’t need to carry the load for a team. Either way, that makes this pick a mistake. You simply don’t use the 9^th overall pick on a guy who won’t or can’t carry the load for you. Sure Spiller will help out in the receiving game and on special teams, but is that worth the 9^th overall pick is he’s not a feature back. I don’t think so.

Some people out there are probably thinking, but CJ Spiller is Chris Johnson. They’ll have to give him the ball more once they realize how good he is. Two things to say to that, one, normally you would hope a team would realize how good a player is before they draft him in the top 10. Two, CJ Spiller is not Chris Johnson. He is CJ Spiller. Saying he’s Chris Johnson is an insult to Chris Johnson. Why do you think I never compare, even the most highly rated players, to MVP caliber players. They have to earn that status. Spiller has to earn that status, and sure he could, but it’s way too premature to start calling him Chris Johnson.

Another thing about Chris Johnson, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year. You think CJ Spiller is going to be able to do that with a shaky quarterback and a below average offensive line. Johnson had a better quarterback and a drastically better offensive line than Spiller has. Trent Edwards behind this line is a tried and failed approach. In fact, Trent Edwards behind a more talented line with Derrick Dockery and Jason Peters on the blindside was a tried and failed approach, though to a lesser degree. I understand they may feel they have something with Brian Brohm. However, why would they not try to at least upgrade the offensive front. They didn’t draft an offensive lineman until the 5^th round, despite the fact that they ranked dead last in attempts per sacks, meaning the number of passing attempts, on average, before a sack, with 9.6. Brian Brohm is probably going to need a lot better protection is he’s going to become the type of quarterback they need. And Spiller is not going to be anywhere near worth the 9^th overall pick if he struggles to run against 8 man boxes, something he will face often unless something good happens at the quarterback position.

Finally, even if Spiller someone manages to become Chris Johnson and has a Chris Johnson type impact against 8 man boxes, despite the fact that he’s never had more than 216 carries in a year and he has to compete with two talented backs for carries and his own team doesn’t have enough faith in him to give him more than 12 carries a game and his offensive line isn’t a good as Chris Johnson’s, I still don’t know if that makes Buffalo a playoff team without something good happening at quarterback.

Chris Johnson didn’t make the playoffs last year and that’s with a more talented quarterback and line than Spiller will have. In fact, the two leading rushers last year, as well as 3 of the top 5, didn’t make the playoffs. Chris Johnson was first, but his team was just 8-8. Steven Jackson was 2^nd and his team was 1-15. Why? Bad quarterbacks behind a bad offensive line (25^th in the league in attempts per sack). Maurice Jones was 4^th but his team went 7-9. Why? Bad, or at average, quarterback play behind a bad offensive line (27^th in the league in attempts per sack).

3 of the top 5 teams in total rushing yards last year didn’t make the playoffs. Tennessee, who we’ve already explained, Carolina, who had many questions at quarterback last year (including is Jake Delhomme colorblind?) as well as a line that was 21^st in attempts per sack, and Miami who had a decent line (15^th) and decent quarterback play, but far from stellar. The only true run heavy team that made the playoffs was the Jets and even they didn’t start taking off as a team until rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez started playing more effciently. Hell, the Colts made the Super Bowl and they were dead last in rushing yards and 30^th in YPC. San Diego made the playoffs at 13-3 even though they were dead last in YPC and 31^st in total rushing yards. Running backs, even if they become feature backs, something both me and seemingly the Bills have doubts that Spiller will become, are not as important as they used to be without an above average quarterback behind an above average line. Running games are merely the compliment to a productive passing game. 

Running Back 

Clemson

5-11 196

40 time: 4.37

Draft board overall prospect rank: #26

Draft board running back rank: #2

Overall rating: 84*

1/17/10: Has had trouble staying healthy in college and his career YPC does not suggest good running back skills, but he has a place in the NFL. He’s way too fast and agile to not have one. He can return kicks, return punts, and can serve as a 3^rd down back or wildcat, but unlike Best I don’t think he’s a feature back at the next level.

Update (11/2/09): 2^nd favorite fast back in college favorite after Best, Spiller does not have Best’s explosion, but he has the moves and the speed to be a Reggie Bush type player at the next level.

            7/25/09: CJ Spiller was heavily recruited out of High School with football skills and all-state track speed at the running back position. He chose to go to Clemson and thus far has been a bit of a disappointment, though that’s not his fault. He has never had more than 145 carries in a season playing 2^nd fiddle to James Davis. Still, at 5-11 190, having never proven himself as a go to guy, there are questions about whether he is a #1 running back in the NFL. He’ll get a chance to show that this year that he’s more than just a lightning fast #2 back with James Davis now a member of the Cleveland Browns. He has looked really good in limited action, averaging about 6 yards per carry in his college career, behind what is thought to be a mediocre offensive line. His stats are even more impressive when you consider the garbage that Clemson has had at quarterback in his career. He doesn’t break a lot of tackles or fight for extra yards. Though he’s capable of breaking a touchdown at any time, with his 4.3 timed speed and his great open field quickness, he could just as easily get 3 straight 1 or 2 yard runs so he needs to work on durability and consistency. He’s a great pass catcher, especially for his age. Despite playing in limited action with a crappy quarterback, he caught 34 catches for 436 yards, giving him a 12.8 yards per catch average which is almost unheard of for a running back. His combination of great hands and his speed and quickness in the open field make him as dangerous catching the ball as he is running the ball and that’s something defenses can’t forget about. He’s also a great kick returner though NFL teams may decide, if he is to be a true #1 running back, that he has to give up returning kicks. He has a lot to prove next season, but I think his speed, pass catching ability, and kick returning ability makes him a first day lock regardless. A strong season next year as the #1 back will cement him as a first round pick, but for right now, he’s a borderline 1^st rounder.

NFL Comparison: Reggie Bush

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here