Defensive End/Rush Linebacker

Arizona

6-3 263

Draft board overall prospect rank: #34

Draft board overall defensive end rank: #7

Overall rating: 80 (early 2^nd)

40 time: 4.66

3/15/11: Everyone’s looking for the next everything. NBA fans have been looking for the next Michael Jordan for over a decade. NHL fans have been looking for Gretsky’s heir, MLB fans someone who is the next Nolan Ryan. This offseason, it seems everyone’s trying to find the next Clay Matthews. Matthews was a dominant stud in all facets of the game this year for the Super Bowl winning Packers and now everyone is quick to compare linebacker prospects Von Miller and Akeem Ayers to him.

Brooks Reed might be the closest thing to Matthews in this class. I’m not saying he’s as good. I’m saying they’re similar players and that’s Reed’s absolutely upside. Reed has one of the best motors I’ve ever seen. He never gives up on a play. I commented several times in my Senior Bowl notes throughout the week that he was like the energizer battery. He just keeps going and going and going. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never slept; if he just keeps going and going and going all the time.

He’s a high character kid and a team captain, but don’t take my word for it. Take his. Click here for my interview with this future NFL player. His sack totals aren’t amazing, but his tackle for loss numbers are really good from year to year and he’s a 3 year starter. He proved to be a lot more athletic than expected at the combine, running the fastest 10 yard split of any lineman and running a 4.66 at 263. He also amazed at the drills in both The Combine and The Senior Bowl.

He’s being looked at by both 3-4 and 4-3 teams. He’s a little undersized for a 4-3 lineman, but he makes up for that with hard work and feistiness. He hasn’t played linebacker much in college, but he’s athletic enough to make the switch to rush linebacker and he has the work ethic and motor to make a position change.

That’s the one difference between him and Matthews (as prospects). Matthews played linebacker at USC. However, both are equally explosive and relentless. Both are not great natural athletes, but make up for that with work ethic and hustle. Also, both have crazy hair. Just saying.

NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Clay Matthews

The first 12 games of the Broncos season was more of the same from the 2^nd half of 2009. Finishing the 2009 season with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, the Broncos started the 2010 season with a 3-9 record before Coach Josh McDaniels got canned. The Josh McDaniels era was supposed to be a positive one, with McDaniels taking over for longtime coach Mike Shanahan. The Broncos started 2009 6-0, but it was all downhill from there.

Their first game without McDaniels wasn’t any better, as they lost 43-13 in Arizona, but week 15 everything turned around. An injury to Kyle Orton forced Tim Tebow into the lineup at quarterback and Tebow didn’t disappoint. The 1^st round pick exceeded expectations, going 40 for 81 for 651 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 picks, as well as 199 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 31 carries.

Most importantly, the team simply played better when he was in the lineup. Remember he was doing this with a coaching staff led by a man who started the year as the running backs coach and that he wasn’t even supposed to play this year at all, with the exception of special packages.

Now heading into 2011, the Broncos have a lot of hope. They can bring in a strong coach to coach Tebow up and another offseason of Tebow’s patented hard work should bring Tebow back even better in 2011. The Broncos are one of the favorites for Jim Harbaugh, should the coach leave Stanford. Jon Gruden is also a candidate.

They also have the 2^nd pick in the draft to work with, to boost a defense that gave up 2.1 more points per game than any other team in the league. They also have a valuable trade chip in Kyle Orton, who can net them either a 2^nd round pick or a 3^rd and some other picks.

The fans want Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow might not be the best quarterback on their roster. He might be, but he might not be. However, we know what Kyle Orton is. Kyle Orton is boring. Kyle Orton can get you to the playoffs if you have a good supporting cast, but he won’t win any games and if he doesn’t have a good supporting cast, he’ll go 5-11. That is probably the case this year for the Broncos, who don’t have a great supporting cast at all.

Why not try Tebow? Worst case scenario, he sucks and you have to start over at quarterback. That’s not a huge deal. With the new rookie wage scale, getting a new quarterback through the draft won’t cost them that much and since Tebow was a late first rounder, he’s not getting paid a ton either. Besides, next year’s quarterback class could be the best since 2004, when Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger all went in the first 11 picks.

However, the Broncos are going to start Orton. He’ll be boring. He won’t get the fans excited. He won’t get them to the playoffs and they still won’t know what Tebow has unless they can make this his team and make him the starter from the get go. Brandon Lloyd is really happy that Orton is the starter. Lloyd, their surprise #1 receiver from a year ago, prefers pass catching from Orton over Tebow, but he might be the only one who is happy about this.

Lloyd is a talented receiver who went from 8 catches for 117 yards in 2009 to 77 catches for 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010, arguably the most inexplicable thing to happen in football in a long, long time, and that’s saying something. Opposite him, however, they lack a consistent #2. They traded Jabar Gaffney to Washington for basically nothing (Jeremy Jarmon?), a peculiar move considering he was their #2 receiver last season.

Eddie Royal is penciled in as the #2, but I really like 2^nd year player Eric Decker, a 3^rd round pick in 2010, while I feel Royal is best off in the slot. Meanwhile, Demaryius Thomas, their first round pick in 2010, was supposed to be their #2 receiver, but he can’t stay healthy. He’s out until at least November with an Achilles tear, an injury he suffered in March. It’s possible we don’t see him at all this year.

At tight end, things don’t look much better. Josh McDaniels thought tight ends were the devil’s work so he never utilized them in his time in Denver. He forced talented tight end Tony Scheffler out of town. New Head Coach John Fox, not exactly a fan of tight ends either, at least not pass catching tight ends, signed Daniel Fells in the offseason. Fells is a mediocre pass catcher who had a career high 41 catches in St. Louis with Sam Bradford last year. He is, however, a solid blocker.

On the offensive line, Ryan Clady is an above average left tackle, but that’s about where the good news stops. Zane Beadles and JD Walton, 2^nd and 3^rd round picks respectively in 2010, sucked as rookies, but figure to be better in their 2^nd season. They man the left guard and center spots respectively. Chris Kuper is a pretty marginal player at right guard and right tackle Orlando Franklin is a rookie 2^nd round pick who will be hurt by the lockout.

That offensive line is hardly the punishing run blocking offensive line John Fox is used to having. Then again, these running backs are hardly the running backs he’s used to having. He used a two back system in Carolina with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. He’ll try the same in Denver, although Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee aren’t quite the same.

Moreno has disappointed after being taken 12^th overall in 2009. He also has trouble staying healthy. John Fox tried to bring DeAngelo Williams from Carolina to make Moreno the 2^nd stringer, but he came up empty there. He instead signed Willis McGahee, who is 30 in October. He’s not exactly a great consolation prize to DeAngelo Williams and if Moreno gets hurt, or the 30 year old McGahee gets hurt, they’re screwed. 3^rd stringer Lance Ball was absolutely terrible last season and 4^th stringer LenDale White (LENDALE WHITE?!?!) probably weighs about 300 pounds by now.

Defensively, things don’t get a lot better. John Fox and John Elway seemed to forget that they had absolutely nothing at defensive tackle going into the draft. I can kind of understand passing on Marcell Dareus for Von Miller, but ignoring the position all together was just stupid. Instead, the Johns opted to settle for Ty Warren, through free agency, and Brodrick Bunkley, through a trade. Warren was let go by the Patriots because of medical concerns, while Bunkley was originally traded to Cleveland, but was sent back to Philadelphia, and eventually to Denver because Cleveland had medical concerns with him. Warren has already hurt his triceps and could be heading to IR. The mediocre Kevin Vickerson will take his place in the lineup and they have absolutely no talented depth at the position.

The Broncos move to a 4-3 after 2 years in a 3-4 and no one is happier about that than Robert Ayers. McDaniels drafted Ayers into a 3-4 scheme that he didn’t fit at all and, predictably, he struggled. He managed just 1.5 sacks in 2 seasons. He still has a chance to turn his career around now that they go to a 4-3 in his 3^rd season. He’ll be the left end. If he continues to struggle, the Broncos will probably try Derrick Harvey, a reclamation project who is even more of a long shot than Ayers. Harvey, the 8^th overall pick in 2008, has managed just 8 sacks in 3 seasons as a starter in Jacksonville before being benched midway through last year and then cut in the offseason.

Meanwhile, no one is sadder about a switch to a 4-3 than Elvis Dumervil. In 2009, Dumervil led the league in sacks with 17 in his first season in the 3-4. He missed all of last year with an injury and now the Broncos are back to a 4-3, which he doesn’t fit as well. In 3 seasons in the 4-3 in his career, he has 26 sacks. That’s not bad, but it’s not elite like he was in the 3-4. Combine that with the injury he’s coming off of and he’s all of a sudden a question mark when just 12 or so months ago, he was their best defensive player.

Speaking of not fitting a 4-3, Von Miller will start at strong side linebacker. Well, it’s not that he doesn’t fit a 4-3, but he isn’t as valuable in one. Miller is a beast and can be an above average strong side linebacker, even as a rookie, even after a lockout, but he’s most valuable rushing the passer and he can’t do that in a 4-3 unless it’s a 3^rd down or a 2^nd and long, which, considering they can’t stop the run, will happen about a combined 5 times this season for them.

On the weak side is DJ Williams. Williams is a stud in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 so I’m not too worried about him at all. The middle is more of a weakness. Joe Mays is an unproven player who has been underwhelming in his first 2 years in the league. This is his first year as a starter. Nate Irving was their 3^rd round pick this past April, but he’s currently 3^rd on the depth chart so his chances of moving up and winning the job at any point this season seem pretty slim, for whatever reason.

Their pass defense was one of the worst in the league last year. Only Jacksonville and Houston allowed more yards per attempt than Denver did last year. An improved pass rush will help. Elvis Dumervil is back and Robert Ayers is in an easier scheme and Von Miller is a stud when he gets a chance to rush the passer. However, some better talent in the secondary other than Champ Bailey would have been helpful.

Andre Goodman and Perrish Cox both struggled opposite Bailey last season, though Cox was a rookie so I guess he has an excuse. Rahim Moore will start at one safety spot, but he’s a rookie and rookie defensive backs tend to struggle. The 2^nd round pick will also be hurt by the lockout. At the other safety spot, Brian Dawkins is the starter. He’s a future Hall of Famer, but I’m pretty sure the man is like 85 years old at this point (I’m kidding, he’s only 38, but still). He was clearly done last season, but it doesn’t look like the Broncos have any choice at this point. Oh, and by the way, Bailey himself is 33 so he should be on the decline as well.

Making a prediction for the Broncos is simple. Kyle Orton can’t make the playoffs without a good supporting cast. That’s why he went 3-10 last year before being benched for Tebow, who, by the way, went 1-2 and kept them in all 3 games. There isn’t a lot of talent on this team so they won’t make the playoffs. They might as well give Tebow a shot, but they don’t see it that way. They see themselves as a legitimate playoff contender (you kind of can’t blame them, key word kind of) so they are going to roll with Orton, who they feel is the better quarterback. I feel they’re making a mistake, but we’ll see in time.

Quarterback: C+

Running backs: C

Receiving corps: C

Offensive line: C+

Run defense: F

Pass rush: C-

Pass coverage: C

Coaching: B-

Projection: 5-11 3^rd in AFC West

Wide Receiver

The Broncos desperately need help at wide receiver, for the love of Tebow! Demaryius Thomas broke out in the 2^nd half of last season and showed great chemistry with Tebow, but Eric Decker shouldn’t be anything other than a depth receiver. They need a complimentary starter opposite Thomas.

Offensive Tackle

Phil Simms said the Broncos had one of the best offensive lines in the league (in the same game where the Patriots abused the Broncos offensive line and eliminated them from the playoffs). Simms is an idiot. ProFootballFocus ranked the group as the 8^th worst pass blocking group and by far the worst run blocking group. Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin were both overmatched at their current positions. Clady allowed 6 sacks and 34 pressures, while committing 12 penalties on the left side. He hasn’t been the same since Mike Shanahan left. Meanwhile, right tackle Orlando Franklin allowed 7 sacks, 31 pressures, and 6 penalties. The rookie 2^nd rounder was also looked at as a guard coming out of Miami and should be moved there long term, where the Broncos also have a need. Ideally, the Broncos would get a new left tackle and move Clady to right tackle and Franklin to guard, but in a weak left tackle class with the 25^th overall pick, that’s not likely. They’ll have to settle for a new right tackle at best. They may also go into next season with Clady and Franklin as the starters.

Guard

Make this two guards if Franklin stays at right tackle, both Chris Kuper and Zane Beadles really struggled as run blockers and Beadles was awful as a pass protector as well, allowing 7 sacks, 36 pressures, and 7 penalties. He had the most sacks and pressures allowed of any guard in the league. At the very least, they need to replace him.

Center

As bad as Beadles is, ProFootballFocus actually rated center JD Walton as their worst offensive player. He was rated as by far the worst center in the league. He also graded out as the worst run blocking offensive lineman in the league, regardless of position. He’s a player they absolutely have to replace.

Defensive Tackle

I didn’t agree with them taking Von Miller over Marcell Dareus (oops?), but they had him graded as the better player so that makes some sense. What doesn’t make any sense is that they didn’t spend a single draft pick on a defensive tackle last season when it was their biggest need. The Broncos weren’t bad against the run, but they couldn’t get any pass rush whatsoever from the inside of their defensive line. Neither of their two starting defensive tackles got a sack all season (Brodrick Bunkley and Marcus Thomas) and none of the depth guys were much better. Besides, both Bunkley and Thomas are free agents.

Running Back

Willis McGahee turns 31 next season. Knowshon Moreno can’t stay healthy. Lance Ball sucks. The Broncos have such as a run heavy offense and John Fox is used to having 2 good running backs, so they could spend a pick on this fairly early if they value makes sense.

Cornerback

Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman both turn 34 this offseason. Chris Harris had a good rookie year as a depth cornerback, but they could use another young cornerback in the mix.

Tight End

The Broncos took two developmental tight ends last season, but neither of them did anything this season. Daniel Fells led all tight ends with 19 receptions. If they aren’t pleased with the development for Julius Thomas or Virgil Green, they could find another tight end because they really need a new starter at the position for 2012. Tebow needs a reliable safety net.

Quarterback

Tim Tebow is going into 2012 as the starter and rightfully so. However, he’s no guarantee going forward so they need a better backup for him than Brady Quinn, just in case. Look for them to look at veterans like Rex Grossman and Jason Campbell in free agency. By the way, take a look at all the needs the Broncos have, especially on offense, and tell me Tebow didn’t do an awesome job just getting them to the playoffs.

Middle Linebacker

Both of their middle linebackers, Joe Mays and Wesley Woodyard, are free agents so they could need depth depending on what happens there. 

() FA Rank 

RB Laurence Maroney

TE Daniel Graham

OT Ryan Harris

NT Jamal Williams 

3-4 DE Justin Bannan

3-4 DE Ronald Fields

3-4 DE Marcus Thomas

MLB Wesley Woodward

CB Champ Bailey (#8)- Resigned 4 years 43 million 22 million guaranteed 

He’s 33 this offseason, but he proved he’s still one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the league last year. He’s not the #1 or #2 guy like he was in his prime, but you still don’t want to throw on him if you can avoid it.

K Matt Prater

Offseason moves: 

Cut Justin Bannan

Cut Jamal Williams

Cut Daniel Graham

Resigned Champ Bailey

Draft 

OT Levy Adcock (Oklahoma State)

QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)

QB Ryan Lindley (San Diego State)

QB Brock Osweiler (Arizona State)

DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut)

RB Robert Turbin (Utah State)

QB Russell Wilson (Wisconsin)

G Austin Wuebbels (Missouri)

2. OLB Von Miller C-

Von Miller has #2 pick value as a 3-4 rush linebacker and he has #2 pick value on 3^rd down in a 4-3, but he doesn’t have #2 pick value on all 3 downs in a 4-3, which makes this a bad pick. On 1^st and 2^nd downs, he’s a stand up outside linebacker, a new full time position for him, and while I think he can be an above average outside linebacker, you just don’t take above average outside linebackers in the top 2. The last two teams to pick outside linebackers early are the Redskins (LaVar Arrington) and the Seahawks (Aaron Curry). Both regret it. I think Denver will too.

45. S Rahim Moore A

A lot of people had them taking Moore with their first pick in the 2^nd round, but the Broncos were smart and were able to trade down and still get their guy. Safety was a huge need for them.

46. OT Orlando Franklin C-

They probably drafted Franklin with the intention of playing him at right tackle, because right tackle was a bigger need for them than guard, but I have some doubts about his ability to play there and I think he was a reach of at least a round. I didn’t have a 2^nd round grade on him. Marvin Austin and Stephen Paea would have made a ton of sense here to fill their defensive tackle need.

67. MLB Nate Irving A-

Irving is one of the more underrated players in this draft and he fills a need for them at middle linebacker. He was a minor reach here and I still don’t like that they haven’t taken a defensive tackle, but I’m far from hating this pick like a lot of people do.

108. S Quinton Carter A-

Carter fits the range and they do need another safety because of Brian Dawkins’ age, but I think a 2^nd safety should have been much further down on their list than a defensive tackle.

129. TE Julius Thomas B

A tight end was a need, but I think Thomas was a minor reach at this point and defensive tackle was a much more glaring need than tight end at this point. They needed to get two defensive tackles out of this draft. They’ve gotten none.

189. OLB Mike Mohamed A

Another linebacker actually makes sense with Miller playing end on 3^rd down. Mohamed is a great value at this point. I think he was very underrated and had a 3^rd round grade in my book. He can also play special teams.

204. TE Virgil Green B

Another tight end? Green was a good value at this point and a better value than Thomas was at 129, but they didn’t need two tight ends. Cornerback, defensive tackle, and running back would have been way more sense here.

247. DE Jeremy Beal A

Say what you want about his athleticism, but he has 27 sacks in the last 3 years in a major conference. He was well worth the 7^th round selection and he does have a role on this team. Elvis Dumervil is coming off a major injury. Robert Ayers is currently a bust, though he could turn that around in a 4-3. Von Miller will only play end on 3^rd down and 2^nd and longs. And you can never have enough guys who can get to the quarterback and this guy proved he could at Oklahoma. Beal also played linebacker at Oklahoma.

Overall:

The Broncos actually had some nice picks. I gave 5 of their 9 picks some form of an A, but I think they really messed up their first selection and they also didn’t fill their biggest need, defensive tackle, at all. They needed two players at that position they got none. I think John Elway was pulling the strings more than John Fox was. John Fox loves to build in the trenches and hates tight ends. Von Miller is a very, very, very talented player, but he only has #2 pick value in a 3-4. In a 4-3, he’ll only be able to rush the passer on 3^rd down, 2^nd and long, and on linebacker blitzes. The rest of the time, he’ll just be a stand up linebacker. He’ll have to learn the position and I think he’s going to be an above average linebacker, but it’s the 2^nd pick. I also didn’t like the Orlando Franklin selection.

Grade: C+

Free agency priorities

Defensive Tackle

I hope they passed on taking a single defensive tackle through the draft because they were sure they could get two starters in free agency, otherwise they’ll be so bad against the run that there won’t be any 3rd downs for them to use Von Miller on.

Running Back

Knowshon Moreno can’t stay healthy and the depth behind him really, really sucks. John Fox is a conservative coach and loves to run the football, which makes sense as they continue to develop Tim Tebow long term. They’ll find a 2nd back in free agency, possibly DeAngelo Williams, who John Fox coached in Carolina.

Cornerback

They resigned Champ Bailey, but they could really use an upgrade over Perrish Cox. They ranked 30th against the pass and you can’t completely blame their pass rush for that.

Tight End

They drafted two, but I doubt either will be able to contribute much as rookies. They need to find a veteran pass catching tight end, even if it doing so would destroy John Fox’s soul.

Draft Needs

Cornerback

The Broncos ranked 30^th in the league against the pass despite having Champ Bailey. Now Bailey, the longest tenured Bronco on the roster, is a free agent and has expressed desire to leave the team. Promising rookie cornerback Perrish Cox might also not be back after he was arrested for sexual assualt. The Broncos can take Patrick Peterson with the 2^nd pick if they find him worth the pick and make Peterson the first defensive back to be drafted in the top 3 since 1997.

Resigned Champ Bailey 

Defensive Tackle

Josh McDaniels didn’t draft a single defensive tackle in his time with the team which is bad considering how terrible they were against the run before he took over. The Broncos were a little better in 2010 against the run, but 29^th is hardly anything to be proud of. Neither are their 23 sacks, least in the league.

Defensive End

I mentioned their 23 sacks above. That will get better when Elvis Dumervil returns from injury in 2011, but across from him will be Robert Ayers. Ayers should be able to turn his career around in a 4-3 next year, which he fits much better, but Aaron Maybin should have turned his career around in a 3-4 this year, which he fit much better, and we all know how that worked. A replacement in case he fails is necessary and even if he succeeds, adding another end to the mix makes a lot of sense. Ayers’ strength is the run, but he struggles as a pass rusher, while Dumervil struggled against the run last time he played in a 4-3, though he remained an amazing pass rusher. Adding another end to make a rotation with those two makes a lot of sense.

Drafted Jeremy Beal (#247) 

Middle Linebacker

More help for their 29^th ranked run defense. 

Drafted Nate Irving (#67) 

Outside Linebacker

DJ Williams will be moving back to the outside in their 4-3, but they need someone across from him. 

Drafted Von Miller (#2), Drafted Mike Mohamed (#189) 

Safety

Why yes I did just name every position on a defense. Remember, this team gave up the most yards and most points in the league last year. Brian Dawkins is getting old and they also could use an upgrade across from him.

Drafted Rahim Moore (#45), Drafted Quinton Carter (#108) 

Tight End

Josh McDaniels had a weird obsession with blocking tight ends. Nothing wrong with them, but they need a true passing catching tight end to give their offense a down the middle threat. No Bronco tight end had more than 148 receiving yards last season.

Drafted Julius Thomas (#129), Drafted Virgil Green (#204)

Running Back

Knowshon Moreno is injury prone and they lack depth behind him. Correll Buckhalter can’t stay healthy and will be 33 in October. Lance Ball and Laurence Maroney both struggled mightily when called upon to carry the load.