1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 

11. G Carl Nicks (New Orleans)- Signed with Tampa Bay for 5 years 47.5 million with 31 million guaranteed

Nicks was rated the 2^nd best guard in the league by ProFootballFocus and doesn’t turn 27 until May. He wants to be paid as such and wants to use teammate Jahri Evans’ 7 year 56.7 million dollar deal as a starting point for negotiations. With Drew Brees and Marques Colston also to resign, that could price Nicks out of New Orleans. Dallas is known to be very interested.  

12. WR Wes Welker (New England)- Franchise tagged

Since the Patriots traded for him in 2007, Welker has caught 554 passes for 6104 yards and 31 touchdowns, which makes him the most productive receiver in the league over that time and that’s even though he tore his ACL and MCL at the tail end of the 2009 season, which sapped his production in 2010. Welker turns 31 this offseason, which makes him older than most who are rated high on this list. I also wonder how productive he’d be outside of New England’s system and without Tom Brady throwing him the ball. But we won’t find out. Welker is expected to be franchised and it would be in his best interest to sign a team friendly deal and give a hometown discount.

13. MLB Stephen Tulloch (Detroit)- Resigned 5 years 25 million with 11 million guaranteed

Over the last 3 seasons, Tulloch has 392 tackles. Despite 160 tackles in 2010, Tulloch had to take a small one year deal in Detroit last offseason. He won’t come as cheap this offseason. Tulloch has played his whole career in a wide 9 scheme, starting in Tennessee and then in Detroit last year. For this reason, Philadelphia seems like the leader to sign him, though he could stay in Detroit.

14. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)- Resigned for 4 years 32 million with 18 million guaranteed

Marshawn Lynch was one of the most productive and entertaining running backs in the league last year, rushing for 1204 yards and 12 touchdowns on 285 carries, but I would be worried about giving someone known as an underachiever with character issues a big, long term deal after finally living up to his potential in a contract year. The 2007 11^th overall pick, Lynch may stop giving 100% as soon as he gets paid. However, he doesn’t turn 26 until April and he is a former 1^st round pick. With 1137 career carries, a 4 year deal should be safe for him, but I do have some worries.

15. WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego)- Signed with Tampa Bay for 5 years 55.5 million with 26 million guaranteed

It looks like Vincent Jackson is finally going to get his money. After sitting out most of the season in 2010 to holdout and then almost holding up the lockout to ensure he couldn’t be franchise tagged before the 2011 season (unsuccessfully), Jackson is not expected to be franchise tagged this offseason, which would free him up to sign a long term deal anywhere. He could be back in San Diego, but I give him a 50/50 shot to leave. In his last 3 non-holdout seasons, Jackson has 187 catches for 3371 yards and 25 touchdowns, though having Philip Rivers at quarterback certainly helps. Jackson is one of the older players in the top 15, but he is only 29.

16. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)- Resigned for 5 years 40 million with 19 million guaranteed

Colston was a mere 7^th round pick in 2006, but he had the last laugh as he and Drew Brees have combined for 449 catches, 6240 yards, and 48 touchdowns in 6 seasons. In every season in which he’s played more than 14 games, Colston has caught at least 70 passes for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns, including 80 catches for 1143 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. You have to wonder how he’d do without Drew Brees, however. With New Orleans needing to resign Drew Brees and Carl Nicks as well, Colston could go elsewhere in search of more money. He turns 29 in June.

 

17. CB Cortland Finnegan (Tennessee)- Signed in St. Louis for 5 years 50 million with 24 million guaranteed

A 6 year starter in Tennessee, Finnegan could go elsewhere this offseason unless he’s franchised, possibly to St. Louis to reunite with Jeff Fisher. This season, he allowed just 5.6 YPA and 2 touchdowns all season, though he did so while picking off a mere 1 pass. In 6 years, Finnegan hasn’t displayed a lot of ball skills, picking off only 14 passes, just over 2 per season. The 5-10 cornerback just turned 28.

18. C Chris Myers (Houston)- Resigned 4 years 25 million with 14 million guaranteed

ProFootballFocus ranked Chris Myers as the top center in the league last year and rightfully so. He’s the leader of one of the best offensive lines in the league. The two questions with him are how good he’d be outside of Houston’s system and his age, 31 in September. Myers is worth more to Houston than any other team and should be their priority to resign, even if it means losing Mario Williams. Their defense was fine without Williams last year, but losing one offensive lineman can derail a whole line. Just ask Atlanta how much they miss Harvey Dahl.

19. MLB/OLB Curtis Lofton (Atlanta)- Signed with New Orleans 5 years 33.5 million

A 2^nd round pick in 2008, Lofton has emerged has one of the best middle linebackers in the league. 26 in June, Lofton has 398 tackles over the last 3 years and has been the vocal leader of Atlanta’s defense.

20. NT/DT Sione Pouha (NY Jets)- Resigned for 3 years 15 million with 9.5 million guaranteed

Not much of a pass rusher, but Pouha was ranked by ProFootballFocus as the 2^nd best run stuffing defensive tackle in the league last year and the best overall defensive tackle. 33 years old, Pouha has good value for at least 2-3 years as a 2 down run stuffer in a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense. The Jets will push to resign him.

 

1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 

Italics = restricted free agent 

1. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)- Franchise tagged (exclusive)

Easily the #1 free agent on the market, Brees is one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in the league and at age 33, he should continue to be elite for 4-5 more years. Brees was Super Bowl MVP in February of 2010.

2. RB Arian Foster (Houston)- Resigned for 5 years 43.5 million with 20.75 million guaranteed

In 2 years as a starter, Foster has 4061 total yards despite missing 3 games with injury. Foster doesn’t turn 26 until August and he never had a serious injury. With just 659 carries in his career, Foster should theoretically remain one of the top backs in the league for 4-5 years. A true 3 down back, Foster could be franchised, but if he’s not, he could be signed away from the Texans by any team willing to surrender a 1^st round pick, unless the Texans can match.

3. QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)- Signed with Denver for 5 years 96 million with 18 million guaranteed

He may be 36 and coming off 4 neck surgeries in the past 2 years, but assuming the future first ballot Hall-of-Famer still wants to play, he will command a lot of attention on the open market. Manning has been recovering well from his injury and will be ready for week 1. The question is just how close to his former self he will be and how durable he will be as he starts to take hits. Still, he’s worth a shot for a team needing a quick fix at quarterback. Washington, Miami, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, Arizona, and the New York Jets are all known to have varying levels of interest, with Washington, Miami, and Arizona being the most likely destinations for him. 

4. RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)- Franchise tagged

5885 total yards in the last 3 years, Rice is a true 3 down back who just turned 25. He’s such a big part of the Ravens offense and will be franchised in order to work out a long term deal. With 959 career carries, Rice figures to be one of the league’s best backs for 3-4 more years barring injury, something he’s never suffered (majorly) in his career.

5. RB Matt Forte (Chicago)- Franchise tagged

From 2008-2010, Forte had 4731 total yards. A great runner and pass protector, Forte was on his way to a career year in 2011 before suffering an injury which cost him the last 4.5 games of the season. This year, he had 1487 yards in 11.5 games and was his team’s leading receiver despite missing the time with injury. At 1014 career carries, Forte doesn’t turn 27 until December and had never suffered a major injury until this season. Way too big a part of his team’s offense, Forte will be franchised until a long term deal can be reached.

6. WR Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)- Tendered (1^st round)

One of the fastest players in the league, Wallace has sub 4.3 speed and shows it on the field. Wallace has 3206 yards and 24 touchdowns in 3 seasons, including an amazing 18.7 yards per catch. One of the best deep threats in the league, Wallace doesn’t turn 26 until August and can be had for a 1^st rounder this year because of the Steelers cap situation. The Steelers won’t be able to match any deal that pays Wallace more than 12 million in its first year.

 

7. 3-4 DE/DT/DE Calais Campbell (Arizona)- Franchise tagged

Campbell fell to the 2^nd round because of character issues, but those haven’t surfaced in 4 years in Arizona. Over the last 3 seasons, the 6-8 300 pounder has 24 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end and should be able to play both 4-3 defensive tackle and left end. Only defensive player of the year candidate Justin Smith was rated higher than him at his position this season by ProFootballFocus. The best part might be that he’s not 26 until September. He’ll been franchised tagged and will remain with the Cardinals next season.

8. DE/RLB Mario Williams (Houston)- signed with Buffalo 6 years 100 million with 50 million guaranteed

The Texans got a lot of criticism for taking Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young #1 in 2006, but they got the last laugh. From 2007-2010, Williams had 43.5 sacks, 6^th most in the league over that span (DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen, James Harrison, John Abraham, and Trent Cole). Williams did that while playing in the 280s throughout his career and being above average against the run. In 2011, he moved to the 3-4 (unheard of for someone his size), but flashed the necessary athleticism and had 5 sacks in 5 games before going down with a season ending injury. Only 27 years old, Williams has only had one major injury in his career and would be a welcome addition to any defense, regardless of scheme.

9. CB Lardarius Webb (Baltimore)- Tendered (1st round)

One of the most underrated players in the league, Webb doesn’t turn 27 until October. Because Baltimore franchised Ray Rice, Webb can be had for a 1^st round pick this offseason (though Baltimore can match). Coming off an injury riddled 2010, Webb had an awesome 2011 season in which he picked off 5 passes and deflected another 11, while not allowing a single touchdown. Overall, Webb allowed just a 55.6 QB rating in 2011 when thrown at, 4^th lowest of any cornerback who played more than 75% of his team’s snaps (Darrelle Revis, Chris Gamble, Ike Taylor).

10. WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)- Franchise tagged

Bowe doesn’t turn 28 until September and has surpassed 995 yards in all 4 of the seasons in which he’s played all 16 games, despite not having consistent quarterback play throughout his career. Bowe is coming off a season in which he caught 81 passes for 1159 yards and 5 touchdowns with a mix of Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton at quarterback.

 

 

Average total drafted in last 5 years: 19.6

1. Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State) Top 15

2. Dontari Poe (Memphis) Top 20

3. Michael Brockers (LSU) Top 25

4. Devon Still (Penn State) 1-2

5. Jerel Worthy (Michigan State) 1-2

6. Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) 2

7. Brandon Thompson (Clemson) 2

8. Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) 2

9. Billy Winn (Boise State) 2-3

10. Mike Martin (Michigan) 2-3

11. Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) 3-4

12. Akiem Hicks (Regina) 3-4

13. Josh Chapman (Alabama) 3-4

14. Kheeston Randall (Texas) 4-5

15. Marcus Forston (Miami) 4-5

16. Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (Baylor) 4-5

17. Jaye Howard (Florida) 5-6

18. DaJohn Harris (USC) 5-6

19. Brett Roy (Nevada) 5-6

20. Hebron Fangupo (BYU) 5-6

21. Tydreke Powell (North Carolina) 6-7

22. Mike Daniels (Iowa) 6-7

23. JR Sweezy (NC State) 7-U

24. Travian Robertson (South Carolina) 7-U

25. Vaughn Meatoga (Hawaii) 7-U

26. Dominique Hamilton (Missouri) 7-U

27. Marcus Kuhn (NC State) 7-U

28. Myles Wade (Portland State) 7-U

29. Logan Harrell (Fresno State) 7-U

 

 

Average total drafted in last 5 years: 26.4

1. Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) Top 15

2. Quinton Coples (North Carolina) Top 20

3. Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) 1

4. Whitney Mercilus (Illinois) 1

5. Shea McClellin (Boise State) 1

6. Chandler Jones (Syracuse) 1-2

7. Nick Perry (USC) 1-2

8. Andre Branch (Clemson) 2

9. Vinny Curry (Marshall) 2

10. Ronnell Lewis (Oklahoma) 2

11. Cam Johnson (Virginia) 3

12. Jared Crick (Nebraska) 3

13. Tyrone Crawford (Boise State) 3-4

14. Jonathan Massaquoi (Troy) 4-5

15. Trevor Guyton (California) 4-5

16. Jake Bequette (Arkansas) 4-5

17. Cordarro Law (Southern Mississippi) 4-5

18. Malik Jackson (Tennessee) 5-6

19. Frank Alexander (Oklahoma) 5-6

20. Olivier Vernon (Miami) 5-6

21. Jack Crawford (Penn State) 5-6

22. Donte Paige-Moss (North Carolina) 5-6

23. Brandon Lindsay (Pittsburgh) 6-7

24. Jacquies Smith (Missouri) 6-7

25. Tim Fugger (Vanderbilt) 6-7

26. Kourtnei Brown (Clemson) 6-7

27. Julian Miller (West Virginia) 7-U

28. Scott Solomon (Rice) 7-U

29. Ernest Owusu (California) 7-U

30. Justin Francis (Rutgers) 7-U

 

 

Average total drafted in last 5 years: 33.6

1. Morris Claiborne (LSU) Top 10

2. Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) Top 25

3. Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) Top 25

4. Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama) 1-2

5. Josh Robinson (UCF) 2

6. Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) 2

7. Trumaine Johnson (Montana) 2

8. Jayron Hosley (Virginia Tech) 2-3

9. Brandon Boykin (Georgia) 2-3

10. Chase Minnifield (Virginia) 3

11. Dwight Bentley (LA-Lafayette) 3-4

12. Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma) 3-4

13. Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) 3-4

14. Leonard Johnson (Iowa State) 3-4

15. Josh Norman (Coastal Carolina) 3-4

16. Justin Bethel (Presbyterian) 4-5

17. Ron Brooks (LSU) 4-5

18. Trevin Wade (Arizona) 4-5

19. DeQuan Menzie (Alabama) 4-5

20. Omar Bolden (Arizona State) 4-5

21. Ryan Steed (Furman) 4-5

22. Coryell Judie (Texas A&M) 4-5

23. Shaun Prater (Iowa) 4-5

24. Asa Jackson (Cal Poly) 5-6

25. Coty Sensabaugh (Clemson) 5-6

26. Mike Harris (Florida State) 6-7

27. RJ Blanton (Notre Dame) 6-7

28. Micah Pellarin (Hampton) 6-7

29. Chris Greenwood (Albion) 6-7

30. Keith Tandy (West Virginia) 6-7

31. Donnie Fletcher (Boston College) 6-7

32. Cliff Harris (Oregon) 7-U

33. Terrence Frederick (Texas A&M) 7-U

34. Charles Brown (North Carolina) 7-U

35. Antonio Fenelus (Wisconsin) 7-U

36. Cliff Harris (Oregon) 7-U

37. Greg McCoy (TCU) 7-U

38. D’Anton Lynn (Penn State) 7-U

39. Derrius Brooks (Western Kentucky) 7-U

40. AJ Davis (Jacksonville State) 7-U

 

 

Average total drafted in last 5 years: 6.4

1. Peter Konz (Wisconsin) 1-2

2. Ben Jones (Georgia) 3-4

3. Philip Blake (Baylor) 4-5

4. Michael Brewster (Ohio State) 4-5

5. David Molk (Michigan) 5-6

6. Quentin Saulsberry (Mississippi State) 6-7

7. Garth Gerhart (Arizona State) 7-U

8. Chris Anzevino (Kent State) 7-U 

9. William Vlachos (Alabama) 7-U

10. Scott Wedige (Northern Illinois) 7-U

 

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Priority free agent

 

32(32). Miami Dolphins 0-7

The Giants’ lazy defense made Matt Moore and Reggie Bush look like legitimate offensive weapons for the first 2 and a half quarters of their game against Miami, but the Giants still won after turning it on midway through the 3^rd. It’s pretty pathetic that this team lost to a team that didn’t even play half the game. This week, they go on the road for the overrated Chiefs and then they’re at home for the reeling Redskins. If they lose both of those games, 0-16 is definitely possible.

31(30). Indianapolis Colts 0-8

The Colts have punted so many times this year. You think they’d be able to do it without problems. However, a blocked punt led to a score against Tennessee in a 27-10 loss. Curtis Painter didn’t play bad or anything and the Colts actually had more yards than the Titans, but that special teams blunder, 10 penalties, and 2 interceptions (both of which weren’t fully Painter’s fault) lost the Colts that game. The only reason they’re 31^st instead of 32^nd is their division. Are you telling me this team can’t win home games against Tennessee and Jacksonville? They also have a home game against Carolina.

30(28). Jacksonville Jaguars 2-6

Cam Newton came out and said this week “we’d be undefeated if it wasn’t for my turnovers.” I think Blaine Gabbert should say something similar, “we’d be undefeated if it could complete a pass.” I’m only partially kidding. The Jaguars defense is surprisingly very good this season, but Gabbert is making it impossible for their offense to sustain drives, completing 45.7% of his passes, including 10 of 30 last week in a 24-14 loss to Houston. In 6 career starts, Gabbert has completed more than 50% of his passes, twice, thrown for more than 200 yards once, and thrown for fewer than 100 yards twice.

29(31). St. Louis Rams 1-6

Example # 467465 that this season doesn’t make any sense. Coming into last week’s game, the Rams had scored 56 points in 6 games. The Saints had scored 62 points this week before. The Rams were missing their starting quarterback. The Rams won. What!? The good news for the Rams is that their defense finally looked like what we thought it could and Brandon Lloyd seems comfortable in St. Louis’ scheme. Sam Bradford is expected to play back this week and with 4 games left against Seattle and Arizona, as well as a trip to Cleveland, they could easily finish 4-12 or 5-11 with momentum heading into next season and a lot of interesting pieces, as well as a top 10 draft pick.

28(26). Washington Redskins 3-4

Rex Grossman has been benched for good reason. John Beck isn’t much better. Tim Hightower is gone for the season. Santana Moss is going to miss at least a month. Their offensive line has several injuries, including left tackle Trent Williams, and allowed 9 sacks last week to a Bills team that had just 4 in 6 games coming in. Chris Cooley is done for the year and Fred Davis might miss this week. This team is terrible and doesn’t have a lot of opportunities left to win games this season (@ Miami, @ Seattle, vs. Minnesota). Mike Shanahan vouched for Grossman and Beck. Could he be on the hot seat?

27(25). Carolina Panthers 2-6

Cam Newton said this week that the Panthers would be undefeated if not for his turnovers. I love this kids’ attitude. He’s his toughest critic and he takes everything upon himself. It’s hard to believe that he had the label of “character problem” back in April before the draft. On top of this, he’s got awesome talent and has adapted to an NFL system way quicker than almost anyone predicted he could. The Panthers have a very tough schedule this season, which is why they’re only 2-6, but this is a team with a lot of hope for the future.

26(27). Arizona Cardinals 1-6

The Cardinals lost to the Ravens, blowing a huge 21 point lead in the process, because Kevin Kolb is more horrific than Joe Flacco. Kolb was 10 of 21 for 153 yards, 1 touchdown, and a pick. He also took 6 sacks and held the ball way too long. On top of that, he had a pick dropped and a pick called back after a penalty. The only reason the Cardinals scored 28 points in a 31-28 loss was because of a punt return for a touchdown, and two Raven turnovers deep in their own territory.

Now the Cardinals head home to face the Rams, which shouldn’t be a hard game, but Kolb might not even play with turf toe, instead, John Skelton, who completed 44% of his passes last season, will get the start. Cardinal fans better hope turf toe is Kolb’s problem right now, otherwise, they’re right where they were last season, only missing a 2^nd rounder, a starting cornerback, and at least 21 million in guaranteed money.

25(23). Denver Broncos 2-5

So John Fox comes up with a “custom game plan” for Tebow and Tebow goes 18 of 39 for 172 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in a 45-10 loss to Detroit. The game plan did not suit Tebow’s strengths at all. Either Fox is a moron (possible) or an evil genius bent on running Tebow out of town (also possible). The latter makes sense because the other John, John Elway, stupidly traded Tebow’s best receiver for a 5^th rounder even though he could have gotten at least a 4^th rounder for him as compensation had he left as a free agent. Either way, I haven’t given up on Tebow. He had a terrible game, but that was the first start he had where the Broncos weren’t competitive. Now the Broncos go to Oakland and play the equally dysfunctional Raiders.

24(24). Seattle Seahawks 2-5

And here I thought the Seahawks were turning into a maybe sort of decent and legitimate football team after beating Arizona, hanging with Atlanta, and beating the Giants in New York. However, since their bye, they lost 6-3 to the Browns in a game that will be on ESPNClassic in hell and then they lost 34-12 at home to Cincinnati. Charlie Whitehurst further proved that his week 17 performance last year was a fluke by completing 48.2% of his passes this season and Tarvaris Jackson was only slightly less shitty.

23(29). Minnesota Vikings 2-6

This team has looked so much better in 2 games with Christian Ponder and remember, they only lost 1 game by double figures even with Donovan McNabb. They’ve got nice pieces for the future and they should not be taken lightly for the rest of this season. I think they’re one of the league’s worst underrated teams.

22(21). Cleveland Browns 3-4

If the Browns have an opportunity to take a quarterback like Landry Jones or Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin, it’ll be interesting to see if they take it. Colt McCoy isn’t horrible, but it’s obvious this team isn’t going anywhere with him at quarterback. He’s just too physically limited. Holmgren did draft him, but he did it with his 5^th pick of his 2010 NFL Draft class, meaning he’s hardly in love with him. If he was, he would have taken him in the 2^nd, rather than let him slip all the way to the late 3^rd.

21(22). Kansas City Chiefs 4-3

In the past two years, the Chiefs are 14-9. However, they have just 4 wins over teams that either had .500 or better records last year or currently have .500 or better records. Those 4 wins, the week 1 San Diego Chargers in 2010 in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards, the 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars starting Todd Bouman, their 3^rd string quarterback, the shit show that was the week 7 Oakland Raiders, and the choking Chargers last week. Meanwhile, legitimate teams like the 2010 Oakland Raiders, the Ravens, the Bills, and the Lions all beat them by 20+. For this reason, they are incredibly overrated. However, with home games against Miami and Denver in their next 2 weeks, it’s possible they could be 6-3.

20(19). Oakland Raiders 4-3

On bye last week.

19(20). Tennessee Titans 4-3

The Titans might be 4-3, but they’re not as good as they’re record says. They got to 3-1 by beating up on teams like Cleveland, Denver, and the Jekyll and Hyde Baltimore Ravens. Then Pittsburgh smashed them. Then Houston smashed them. Last week the Colts outgained them, but shot themselves in the foot in a 27-10 loss. Kenny Britt is hurt. Chris Johnson is…I don’t even know. Matt Hasselbeck can’t do it by himself offensive and their defense isn’t anywhere near good enough to compensate.

18(17). New York Giants 5-2

If the Giants have trouble with the likes of Miami and Seattle at home, I don’t see how they’re going to survive @ New England, @ San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, @ New Orleans, and vs. Green Bay any better than 6-6 and then after that they still have to play Dallas twice and the Jets. Remember, this team would be 4-3 right now if the refs don’t made a stupid call in their game against Arizona that allowed the Giants to get the game winning score and their most impressive win is a field goal win at home over Buffalo. That’s why I can’t buy them winning this division

17(15). Dallas Cowboys 3-4

The Cowboys got thumped on national television last week against Philadelphia as the Dream Team looked like the Dream Team, putting up 34 points offensively while holding the Cowboys to 7 points as Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha completely took Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, holding them to 55 total receiving yards combined. However, I think that’s more of the Eagles being awesome than the Cowboys being terrible. They’re still a decent, middle of the run team that should have no problem at home against Seattle this week.

 

16(14). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-3

On bye last week.

15(17). Chicago Bears 4-3

On bye last week.

14(8). Atlanta Falcons 4-3

On bye last week.

13(18). Cincinnati Bengals 5-2

Going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks by 22 is impressive. I know the Seahawks suck, but they’ve sucked for a few years and they still haven’t lost by this big of a margin at home since week 9 last year. The Bengals now sit at 5-2 and though they haven’t beaten anyone of note, they’re still playing solid football and they get two test games coming up with division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. If they win those games, they’d be in the drivers’ seat in this division, though I’m conservatively ranking them here for now.

12(12). New York Jets 4-3

On bye last week.

11(11). Baltimore Ravens 5-2

And here I thought the Ravens were inconsistent. Congratulations to them by proving me wrong by playing terrible football in two straight weeks. Joe Flacco is having a similar season to Philip Rivers, but unlike Rivers’, no one is really asking if he’s hurt and the reason for that is, Flacco doesn’t have Rivers’ track record. Given this, I don’t think he’s all that likely to turn it around and as good as the Ravens running game and defense is, that’ll only get them so far.

10(4). San Diego Chargers 4-3

Another year, another poor start to the season by the San Diego Chargers. The good news, even last year when they missed the playoffs, they went 7-2 after starting 2-5 and 4-3 is still one of their better starts in the Norv Turner era. The bad news is, Philip Rivers has never played this poorly before and there’s no guarantee they can turn it on in the 2^nd half again. Obviously, keeping it close with Green Bay or winning against Green Bay this week would do a lot for them and convince me to move them back up, but for now, they’re down here.

9(10). Philadelphia Eagles 3-4

Andy Reid teams never start well. Besides, with so many new players and new assistant coaches, it was predictable that this team would play poorly to start. However, they looked like the Dream Team last week and now they get games against Chicago (Andy Reid is 14-7 all time on MNF) and Arizona, both at home. This is the favorite in the NFC East as far as I’m concerned.

8(13). Detroit Lions 6-2

Credit the young Lions for bouncing back off of back to back home losses as favorites to pulverize the Broncos in Denver 45-10. That win will have the morale high for this emotional young team heading into the bye and that should result in them playing very good football once more coming out of the bye as they head to Chicago for a rematch with the Bears.

7(7). Houston Texans 5-3

After wins over the Titans and the Jaguars, the Texans now sit at 5-3 in one of the weakest divisions in football. More good news, they’ve been doing this without Andre Johnson who will be back soon. However, the Matt Schaub has won 3 in a row just 3 times in his career, 56 starts and while the Browns might not look like much coming to Houston this week, this year has proven that anything can happen in the National Football League.

6(9). Buffalo Bills 5-2

After managing just 4 sacks in their first 6 games, the Bills has 9 against the Redskins last week without two of their best defensive players, Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman. I know the Redskins suck, but that has to be good for their confidence, including the confidence of rookie Marcell Dareus, who had 2.5 sacks last week. Now they get a huge divisional game at home against the Jets as they try to improve to 2-0 in the division with wins over the Jets and the Pats.

5(3). New Orleans Saints 5-3

The Saints suck on the road. I knew they sucked on the road, but I didn’t realize it was this bad. There’s no excuse for losing to AJ Feeley and the Rams in St. Louis. This team is in trouble if they have to go to Green Bay or even San Francisco in the playoffs. But for now, they look to reassert their control of the division by getting revenge at home against the Buccaneers, who beat them in Tampa Bay a fe weeks ago.

4(5). San Francisco 49ers 6-1

6-1 is impressive, but let’s see them play a team like the Steelers before we move them into the top 3, which everyone seems to be doing. Their signature wins are both against young teams off of Monday Night wins, unless you include the discombobulated Eagles week 4. They’re a very good team, but I don’t think they’re elite. Fortunately, this is 2011. There’s way less elite teams than any normal year. That’s why teams like the 49ers and the Bills are 4^th and 6^th in these Power Rankings. If you have a solid quarterback, run the ball, play defense and don’t make mistakes, you’re doing better than most of the league.

3(6). Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2

Steelers are below the Patriots, but it was a tough one. Yes, Pittsburgh won last week, but who would have won in Foxboro? As far as I’m concerned, the Packers are the only team that can beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Had these teams been playing this week on a neutral field, I think the Patriots would win. That’s just my opinion. It was close and I would like to congratulate the Steelers on going from “old and slow” to elite in just 3 weeks, even with all the injuries they had.

2(1). New England Patriots 5-2

Simply put, Tom Brady wasn’t going to repeat 2010. I don’t care how you are, you don’t throw just 4 picks in a season twice in a row. The defense had to get better, but because of the stupid lockout, Belichick had just 7 weeks to put in a whole new defensive scheme with plenty of new players and the defense hasn’t gotten better. In fact, they’ve probably gotten worse. At least last year they could produce turnovers. I still really like this team, but Aaron Rodgers would throw for 700 yards on them if they met in the Super Bowl. Which is why…

1(2). Green Bay Packers 7-0

I’ve put the Packers #1. They’re not as perfect as everyone says. They’ve have a bottom 3^rd of the league defense in terms of yards allowed without having faced an elite defense since week 1 and they’ve had a pretty cushy schedule, but their offense is so efficient and overall, they’re better than any other team in the league.

 

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 7-6

Last week ATS: 4-9 (-1910/-16 units)

Overall picks: 72-44 (.621)

Upset Picks: 0-2 (-200/-2 units)

ATS Picks: 48-63-5 (-5415/-41 units)

Survivor picks: 7-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF)

Upset picks: 11-18 (+570/-3 units) 

Recap: I sucked. Again. Last week I wrote here about how bad teams were especially bad after the lockout, saying that teams with .325 or worse winning percentages (with the exception of one outlier) were covering at a rate of 25% this year, as opposed to 35% last year. I stayed away from those teams, with the exception of Jacksonville.

So what happened? Those 6 teams (Miami, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Arizona, Minnesota), went 4-2 ATS last week. St. Louis, who was missing their starting quarterback and had scored 56 points in 6 games, beat the Saints, who scored 62 points the week before and Arizona and Miami both almost pulled upsets on the road as double digit underdogs against 4-2 teams. The one bad team I bet on, Jacksonville, didn’t cover because Houston kicked a “meaningless” field goal as time expired.

My conclusion from last week, I shouldn’t have changed anything. I need to go back to what I was doing from week 1-7. It worked last year and it’ll work again. I just need to be patient. I knew St. Louis and Miami were the right side last week. New Orleans sucks on the road and as big favorites and New York wouldn’t be focused for the Dolphins with New England next on their schedule. I just was afraid to them bet because they were 0-6 ATS.

One thing I am noting, teams suck after a bye this week. New England hadn’t lost off a bye in forever and they lost last week. The mandatory 4 day vacation during bye weeks the players negotiated themselves in the new CBA is making players really rusty off a bye. Belichick knew that was a possibility and game planned against it all week and he still lost.

This year has been weird so I really hope things turn around. I have a feeling when we look back at this year in history, it’ll be referred to as that “weird lockout year.” Everyone who is smart is losing money. A lot of sharps are losing money. Vegas is even losing money. I bet there’s some idiot at home who can’t keep the drool in his mouth getting rich by picking teams at random. Maybe I should try that…

Buffalo Bills 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -1 (-120) 4 units (-480)

The Bills have been consistently underrated by Vegas. They were +6.5 at Kansas City, +9 at home for New England, +3 at home for Philadelphia, and last week -6 at home for the terrible Redskins. They covered all 3 of those games and I think they’re underrated here once more. I don’t understand how Vegas sees the Jets as 2 points better than the Bills.

On top of that, this game will mean more to the Bills than the Jets. The Jets face the Patriots next week. You know they’re going to be more focused on that game. Divisional favorites or road dogs of less than 3 are 30-66 ATS since 2002 before being divisional dogs. The Jets will be divisional dogs next week for the Patriots and though they are divisional dogs here, they’re dogs of less than 3 on the road, meaning Vegas sees the Jets as the superior team. They still fit that trend.

On the other hand, the Bills are trying to avenge a huge loss to the Jets week 17 last year. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss of 21+ are 29-12 ATS since 2002. The Jets embarrassed the Bills 38-7 week 17 last year so the Bills obviously fit this trend. Finally, the Jets are coming off of a bye. Teams coming off of a bye have looked rusty this season because of the NFL’s new stupid bye rules.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Seattle Seahawks 9 Survivor Pick (7-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF)

Pick against spread: Dallas -11.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

And here I thought the Seahawks were actually becoming a legitimate football team after beating Arizona, hanging with Atlanta and beating the Giants on the road. However, since their bye, the Seahawks have lost 6-3 to the Browns and then got destroyed last week by the Bengals. No matter who they had at quarterback last week, they couldn’t do anything offensively against the Bengals and that was with the magic of Qwest Field on their side.

Now they go on the road, where they are a pitiful 11-26 ATS since 2007, and they face the Cowboys. The Cowboys didn’t look too good either last week, losing 34-7 to the Eagles, who looked like the Dream Team they were supposed to be. However, I think that was more of a case of the Eagles being awesome finally than the Cowboys being terrible. Fun fact, Dallas is 14-7 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000, 9-4 ATS after a loss, so I think their loss to the Eagles will motivate them rather than deflate them.

The Cowboys aren’t great, but they’re a solid bunch and what better way for them to take out their anger than by beating up on the lowly Seahawks. Teams that lose by 21+ are 10-2 ATS the next week as double digit favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-7 ATS since 2007 as double digit road dogs, with that one win of course against the Giants earlier this season. I think that game was a fluke so I’m comfortable putting a couple units on the Cowboys here as big favorites at home. They showed the ability to blow out bad teams like the Rams at home. I don’t think they have much problem here with Seattle.

Houston Texans 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Cleveland +11 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Matt Schaub has 62 career starts, this one will be his 63rd. He’s won 3 in a row a mere 3 times in his career. The Texans beat the Titans and then the Jaguars so if they beat the Browns here, that will be 3 in a row. I’m not saying the Browns will win, but that doesn’t help the Texans’ cause here. Furthermore, in 84 career games, Gary Kubiak has covered in 3+ straight games 3 times. That one is a little bit more relevant considering how big this line is.

Speaking of the line being big, Gary Kubiak has never covered as double digit favorites, going 0-2 in that situation in his career. The Texans are also a mere 13-20 ATS off of a win under Gary Kubiak. They covered last week in this situation, but barely and it took a late field goal to cover. Kubiak and the Texans are notoriously bad off of a win.

Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn’t been playing good football this year, but they haven’t been getting blown out either. They’ve only lost by more than 10 once all season. Besides, they’re also in their 2^nd straight game as road dogs of 7+, a situation teams are 48-24 ATS in since 2002. The Texans are due for a letdown and the Browns seem like the type of team that can take advantage of that let down and cover against a big line.

 

Atlanta Falcons 26 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

Something weird seems to be up with Matt Ryan this season. Matt Ryan was 30-17 ATS in his career before this season, yet only 3-4 ATS this season. He was 15-10 ATS in his career on the road before this season, but 1-3 ATS this year. He was 7-2 ATS on the road as favorites, but he’s failed to cover in both of his games as road favorites this year.

Given that, I think Atlanta is a little overrated as 7 point favorites here in Indianapolis, especially off of a bye. Curtis Painter is playing better and the Colts could have kept it close last week if not for a special teams mistake, some penalties, and turnovers. The Colts are a proud veteran squad who has to be getting tired of hearing how much they suck without Peyton Manning. I’m betting them this week, but only barely. I’m not confident in this one.

Miami Dolphins 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10 Upset Pick (+205)

Pick against spread: Miami +4.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)

I was really looking forward to picking the Dolphins this week against the overrated Chiefs. The Chiefs are 14-9 in the last two years straight up, but who have they beaten? Over that stretch, they’ve beaten 4 teams that either finished with a .500 or better record last year or currently have a .500 or better record.

Those 4 teams, the week 1 Chargers last year in a game Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards, the 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars starting Todd Bouman, their 3^rd string quarterback, the shit show that was the week 7 Oakland Raiders, and the choking Chargers last week. Meanwhile, good teams like the 2010 Baltimore Ravens, the 2010 Oakland Raiders, the 2011 Detroit Lions and the 2010 Buffalo Bills all beat them by 20+. On top of that, the Chiefs are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 instances as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are on the road, which is like being at home for any other normal team. Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 7-21 ATS at home and 18-10 ATS on the road, including a near win as double digit underdogs against the Giants last week. They’re also in their 2^nd straight road game as dogs of 3+, a situation teams are 54-37 ATS in since 2008. Fun fact, teams that cover, but don’t win as 10+ point road underdogs are 16-4 ATS since 2002 as road dogs of 3+ the following week. The Dolphins are also winless and will have the motivation edge over the Chiefs, who could easily overlook the Dolphins after an emotional home win last week against division rival San Diego on Monday Night Football.

However, Vegas isn’t overrating the Chiefs. I thought after how “good” they looked beating an “elite” team in the Chargers last week, and being on a 4 game winning streak, the Chiefs would be favored by at least 7, probably 9 here. If anything, Vegas is underrating them. The Chiefs suck, but they’re better than 1.5 points better than the putrid Dolphins.

That being said, I’m still betting on Miami. I think they can outright win here. They’ve played much better on the road this season than at home, hanging within a field goal of both New York and Cleveland, and last year they were 6-2 straight up on the road as opposed to 1-7 at home. The Chiefs could easily be flat off a huge MNF win over the Chargers in overtime and will have a very hard time getting up for the 0-7 Dolphins. Besides, the Dolphins are in an extremely powerful 16-4 ATS situation as 3+ road dogs after covering, but not winning as 10+ road dogs.

Finally, this line could be a trap line. Chiefs -4.5 will seem too good to be true for a lot of people. After all, the Chiefs just beat the Chargers and the Dolphins don’t have a win all season. This season is so weird that even Vegas is losing money so a trap line makes a lot of sense here given that all the situational angles say Miami is the right side. It wouldn’t even surprise me if this game was fixed. Vegas never has a losing season. Given that, I feel comfortable going with the situational angles and taking the points even though there is absolutely no line value.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +9 (-120) 2 units (-240)

One would think New Orleans would be extra motivated this week after losing as huge favorites to St. Louis last week and after losing to these same Buccaneers a few weeks before. However, I couldn’t find any numbers to support it. The Saints aren’t particularly good after a loss as a favorite and the Saints aren’t particularly good in divisional revenge games.

Tampa Bay, however, is particularly good as divisional dogs of 7+, going 4-1 ATS under Raheem Morris in that situation. Besides, Tampa Bay has had New Orleans’ number recently, beating them in their last two matchups, including week 17 last year in New Orleans. Besides, since week 6 of 2010, the Buccaneers have lost just one game by more than a touchdown and that was that weird game in San Francisco earlier this season.

They play a lot of close games and I don’t expect them to lose by more than a touchdown, but at the same time, I could see the Saints coming out angry and blowing the Buccaneers out of the water, especially with the Buccaneers coming off of a bye. They have the ability to do that, which I was this isn’t going to be a big bet. In fact, the only reason I’m making any sort of bet here is because the line is bigger than 7.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

The 49ers are playing a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast as a West Coast team, but the 49ers have actually won in Cincinnati, Detroit, and Philadelphia in that same situation this year. They don’t seem to have any problems with traveling 3 time zones for an early game. In addition, Washington is terrible. I still don’t think Vegas has caught onto that.

Their quarterback is John Beck. Tim Hightower, Santana Moss, and Trent Williams are all out. Ryan Torain and Roy Helu are mediocre at best on the ground and their best receiver is Jabar Gaffney. Their offensive line is banged up and terrible, surrendering 9 sacks last week to a Buffalo team that had 4 sacks coming into the game in 6 games and was missing two key players in their front 7 in Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman. On top of that, Fred Davis is now hurt. He might not play, which would leave them very thin at tight end as Chris Cooley is on IR. They’re awful. They deserved to be much worse than +6 on the road against the Bills last week and they deserve to be more than +3.5 here at home for San Francisco.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are the only team in football that has covered or pushed in each of their 7 games, going 6-0-1. They’ve proven they can win early on the East Coast and I don’t think they have any problem here with the Redskins. I don’t really have any trends to support me, but I do really like San Francisco this week. If you can get this line at -3, 3 units is the right amount, as San Francisco is such a conservative football team. Field goal protection is valuable. At -3.5, go 2 units.

Denver Broncos 16 Oakland Raiders 13 Upset Pick (+345)

Pick against spread: Denver +7.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)

Tim Tebow looked awful last week, but I’m not ready to give up on him. Yes, he had one terrible game against a good team, but he kept the Broncos competitive in each of his first 5 games played. If anything, his awful loss last week will motivate him to play even better this week. Tebow is a guy with Tom Brady esque intangibles and we all know how good Brady is off of a loss.

In general, teams that lose by 21+ at home are 90-68 ATS the next week. That makes sense. They’re playing for their pride after a huge embarrassment. The Broncos are also playing to avenge a loss to the Raiders earlier this season. Underdogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as a favorite are 71-51 ATS since 2002.

Meanwhile, I don’t know if people have forgotten this, but the Raiders were equally as awful before their bye against a weaker opponent in the Chiefs. Carson Palmer and Kyle Boller threw 3 picks a piece in a 28-0 home loss to the Chiefs. They’ll be playing for their pride as well this week, but I really don’t feel comfortable laying more than 3 points with the Raiders right now, let alone 7.5. There’s a chance Oakland finishes the season at 6-10 or worse, which means they would be favorites of 6+ as a team that finishes 6-10 or worse, a situation teams are 22-61 ATS in since 2002.

They’re coming off a bye, which hasn’t helped teams this year and there’s no guarantees Carson Palmer knows enough of the playbook to be a functional quarterback. There’s also no guarantees Palmer can be a functional quarterback even with total knowledge of the playbook because of how bad he was last year and because he did nothing but sit on his ass and count his money for 8 months before the Raiders traded for him.

Besides, the Raiders might have a hard time giving a full effort this week against the Broncos, who just got blown out and who they beat earlier this season. The Raiders travel to San Diego next week. They’re likely to be more focused on that. Divisional favorites are a terrible 5-21 ATS since 2008 before being divisional dogs, which they will definitely be in San Diego. That trend can be traced back to 2002. Teams in that situation are 27-61 ATS since 2002. Oakland is also terrible as a favorite in general, going 3-11 ATS as a favorite since 2006. The Broncos are my pick of the week.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Tennessee Titans 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +2.5 (+100) 2 units (+200)

The Bengals sit at 5-2, the same record as the Patriots and the Ravens. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming at the beginning of the season. I strangely see no hands. Andy Dalton, aka the Red Rifle, has been awesome for the Bengals and if the Bengals can beat the Ravens and the Steelers after this game, they’ll lead the division, no matter what happens here against Tennessee.

For that reason, they could be a bit flat against Tennessee, but I still like Cincinnati a little bit this week. I think this line is ridiculous. The Titans were blown out by the Steelers and the Texans and their game with the Colts last week could have been a lot closer had Indianapolis not shot themselves in the foot so much. Kenny Britt is out. Chris Johnson is awful. They’re way worse than their 4-3 record suggests. I have a very hard time believing these two teams are equal.

Besides, the Bengals are in their 2^nd straight road game, a situation teams are 144-108 ATS in since 2008, 68-50 ATS after a win and 98-68 ATS as a dog. Marvin Lewis himself is 11-5 ATS in his 2^nd straight road game as the Head Coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, including 9-3 ATS as a dog. In general, the Bengals are 14-7 ATS as a dog since 2009. They might not be a 100% here which is why this isn’t a bigger pick, but I still like them to pull the upset here in Tennessee.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Arizona -1.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

Sam Bradford is going to play Kevin Kolb will not play, at least that’s what’s expected. In Kolb’s absence, John Skelton, who showed flashes in limited starts last season, will start for the Cardinals. This is a tough one. I really don’t want to take an NFC West team on the road. in the last 2 years, excluding the 2011 49ers because they’re a legitimate football team, the NFC West is 14-29 ATS on the road, 4-9 ATS on the road in the division. The Rams could also be flat off a huge win against the Saints. Teams are 43-64 ATS after winning as double digit underdogs since 1989.

However, the Cardinals are favorites here so betting on them means picking them to win. I really don’t know what we’re going to get from John Skelton. He could be good. He could be terrible. The Cardinals could be extra motivated to snap their 6 game losing streak now that their starting quarterback is gone. Everyone else might play 110% to compensate against a divisional rival that they can beat, or they might mail it in without Kolb.

They might also overlook the Cardinals. They just had an emotional loss to the Ravens as huge favorites last week and next week they go the Philadelphia. This is a sandwich game. Teams that lose as underdogs are 43-66 ATS before being underdogs again since 2008. I don’t really have a good feel for this one, but I’m taking the favorite for 1. I don’t want to bet on the Rams on the road, especially as small underdogs.

New England Patriots 38 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: New England Patriots -9 (+100) 3 units (-300)

If there’s two situations the Patriots are awesome in, it’s revenge games and games after a loss. The Patriots lost to the Steelers last week. Since 2002, the Patriots are a whopping 16-6 ATS after a loss as a favorite. The game the Patriots are trying to get revenge for here is obviously Super Bowl 42. Somehow I don’t think they’ve forgotten about that. The Patriots are a whopping 18-7 ATS since 2002 against teams they lost to as a favorite previously. The Giants are getting the double whammy this week. I just know I really, really wouldn’t want to be them.

This line is big, which is why this isn’t a bigger bet, but I really like New England’s chances to blow out the Giants this week. They’ll be angry about last week’s loss and they’ll be angry about the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, as good as the Giants are before week 9, 36-22 ATS under Tom Coughlin, they’ve awful in the 2^nd half of the season, especially weeks 9-12, where they are 9-17 ATS under Tom Coughlin.

San Diego Chargers 35 Green Bay Packers 31 Upset Pick (+220)

Pick against spread: San Diego +6 (-105) 3 units (-315)

Different year, same story, the Chargers completely suck in the first half of the season. They’re new inventing new ways to lose. Seriously? A botched snap in field goal range in a tied game late? Has that ever happened before? The bad news for Chargers fans is that they have to play the Packers this week and the Packers are the best team in the league at 7-0.

Or maybe that’s good news. The Chargers always seem to play up (or down) to the level of their competition. We’re getting Philip Rivers as an underdog this week and Philip Rivers is 11-7 ATS as an underdog, 10-5 ATS against everyone except his arch enemy Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Chargers are also very good off a loss as a favorite in the Philip Rivers era, going 12-6 ATS in that situation.

More good news for the Chargers, it’s week 9. The first half of the season is over. At some point every season the Chargers turn things around, even last year, when they didn’t make the playoffs, they were 7-2 after starting 2-5. Since Philip Rivers took over as the starter in 2006, the Chargers are a mere 19-25 ATS before week 9, but 31-19 ATS week 9 or later.

The Chargers are also back at home, where they always play better. All 3 of their losses this season are on the road and they’ve won each of their home games, though they were playing Kansas City, Minnesota, and Miami. However, Philip Rivers is 28-19 ATS at home, 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. Finally, teams that lose as road favorites typically fare well the next week as home dogs. It makes sense, a week ago they were good enough to be favorites on the road, but now, after just one week, they’re dogs at home. Teams are 18-12 ATS in this situation since 2002.

I really like the Chargers this week for the reasons I listed above. They play better in the 2^nd half of the season. They play better against better competition, especially as an underdog. They also play better at home. On top of that, this line is a complete overreaction. This line means the Chargers would be -12 in Green Bay. St. Louis was -15 in Green Bay. Denver was -13.

I like San Diego’s chances to cover this week and I think they have a decent chance of pulling the upset. No one is ever perfect and if the Packers don’t lose this week, there’s not a lot of other teams on their schedule with the offensive firepower to beat them. The Chargers are one of them. The Packers have also been fortunate to have an easy first half schedule. From week 2 on, they played Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minnesota. Chicago and Atlanta are the only two teams on that list that are even decent and their week 1 game with New Orleans went down to the last snap.

The Packers’ defense hasn’t played as well as it should have against weak competition (25^th in yards) so I think an offensive powerhouse like San Diego (when they’re right) should be able to at least give them a game. Given that it’s now the 2^nd half of the season, and that they were just embarrassed on national television, and that they’re coming home where they play well, and that they’re playing a good team and they play up to the level of the competition, I think they’ll be right this week. On top of that, the Packers could be rusty off of a bye.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3 (-125) 3 units

The Ravens blew out the Steelers week 1, but since then, they’ve gone 6-1 and the Ravens have gone just 4-2 and they haven’t been playing good football of late. They lost in Jacksonville and they almost lost last week at home against Arizona and they only won because Kevin Kolb was somehow more horrific than Joe Flacco. Speaking of Flacco, despite beating Roethlisberger earlier this season, he is just 2-5 ATS in his career against Big Ben.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are playing good football and will be very motivated. The Steelers are going to be scary this week. Divisional favorites trying to avenge of loss of 21+ are 29-12 ATS since 2002. The Steelers are especially dangerous in this spot because Ben Roethlisberger is 29-17 ATS against a team that beat him in the previous matchup in his career. I’m putting 3 units on the Steelers here at home at -3. If you get -3.5, only put 2 units on this. Steelers/Ravens games are normally close so field goal protection is going to be valuable.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -7 (-115) 3 units

The Eagles looked like the Dream Team last week, beating the Cowboys 34-7, improving Andy Reid’s record to 13-0 straight up after a bye. I think the Eagles we saw last week are representative of the Eagles we will see from here on out. Yes, they struggled early, but Andy Reid coached teams always do. The Eagles have always gotten better as the season has gone on.

This season especially a slow start was predictable because they had so many new players, including new offensive and defensive line coaches and a new defensive coordinator, who used to be the offensive line coach (huh?). However, they seem to have put it all together now and I really don’t think the Bears stand much of a chance this week, especially off a bye.

I don’t have a lot of trends to support myself, but Andy Reid is 15-6 ATS on Monday Night, including 7-1 ATS since 2006. Besides, even though I’ve been wrong a lot this year, the Eagles have been the one team I’ve predicted correctly. I bet against them in their first 5 games (St. Louis, Atlanta, New York, San Francisco, Buffalo), and I bet on them in their last 2 (Washington, Dallas). I’m 6-1 betting on their games this year, including 6 in a row, and I like my chances of going 7-1. Maybe this should be my pick of the week…

Parlay: Atlanta -0.5, Philadelphia -1.5 5 units

This is betting 550 to win 500. Assuming Atlanta wins outright, I can hedge this before Monday Night with 2 units on the Chicago money line (+300) setting up a situation in which I win 500 and lose 200 if Philadelphia wins by 2 or more, so I get 300 dollars total. If Chicago wins straight up, I win 600 and lose 550 or I win 50 dollars total. If Philadelphia wins by 1, I throw my laptop out the window (lose 750). If Atlanta loses straight up against Indianapolis, I lose $550.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks: Denver +8,  Buffalo -1.5, Kansas City +4, New England -8.5, Cleveland +11 (17-23)

 

 

32(32). Miami Dolphins 0-6

Chad Henne is out for the season and Sage Rosenfels is out for at least this week and with Matt Moore dealing with bruised ribs the Dolphins have turned to…JP Losman. You can’t make these things up. Moore is expected to play this week against New York, but New York has an awesome pass rush and could knock Moore out of the game, bringing in Losman to play. That’s one way to Suck for Luck.

31(27). St. Louis Rams 0-6

As bad as the Rams were with Sam Bradford, they were even worse without him last week. AJ Feeley is one of the better backups in the league, but with poor receivers, a poor offensive line, and a poor defense supporting him, Feeley played terribly against Dallas in a huge loss. Meanwhile, St. Louis’ defense allowed 253 yards rushing to DeMarco Murray, a rookie making his first career start. Now they have New Orleans coming to town. St. Louis has scored 56 points this season. New Orleans scored 62 last week. Bradford is not expected to play this week either. It’s not like the Rams have anything to play for.

30(31). Indianapolis Colts 0-7

Remember when Mike Wilbon said the Colts could make the playoffs even if Peyton Manning missed the first 8 games. What we aren’t noticing because Manning is out is that the Colts wouldn’t even be that good with Manning. Remember, this team won 10 games last year even though Manning played very well. With Manning another year older, even if he had played all season this year, more than 10 wins would be tough. The Colts have done a very poor job of drafting in recent years, especially in the first round, but Manning has been masking it up. They’ll get a very, very high pick this year, which they need, but even if Manning returns next year at 100%, they’re in trouble for the future, especially with guys like Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis being free agents after the season.

29(29). Minnesota Vikings 1-6

It’s amazing how much better this team has looked with Christian Ponder. Ponder might not be putting up better stats than McNabb was, but he’s moving the chains much better than McNabb was and more importantly, he’s energized these troops. It’s obviously too late for this season, but if Ponder keeps it up, the Vikings could be an annoying team down the stretch to potential playoff teams. Remember, even with McNabb, they only have 1 loss by more than 7 all season. If they draft well this year, they’re right back in the mix potentially next year.

28(30). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6

I’ve called Derek Cox terrible on this site before and with good reason. No one knew who the hell he was when the Jaguars drafted him in the 3^rd round and his first 2 seasons weren’t very good either. However, in his 3^rd year in the league, Cox has been awesome. He’s been thrown on 14 times in 7 games and allowed just 4 catches for 32 yards. That being said, the Jaguars’ defense isn’t quite as good as the Ravens made it look last week and Blaine Gabbert is still very bad, at least right now. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a future, but his pocket presence is awful right now. He doesn’t look ready to be a starter in this league.

27(26). Arizona Cardinals 1-5

Kevin Kolb has been awful this season and the Cardinals sit here at 1-5. Remember, they were 5-11 last year with Derek Anderson and John Skelton at quarterback. They’ll get a few wins in divisional play (home vs. Seattle and home vs. St. Louis should be locks for them), but this is still not a very good team. At least they didn’t do something stupid like give Kevin Kolb 63 million over 5 years and give up a 2^nd rounder and a legitimate starting cornerback for him. Oh wait. The lesson, as always, never trade for an Andy Reid quarterback. He always makes them look better than they are (McNabb, AJ Feeley, Kolb).

26(21). Washington Redskins 3-3

The Redskins are in absolute free fall right now. Two weeks ago they were coming out of the bye at 3-1. Now they’re 3-3 after Rex Grossman was rightfully benched after a 4 interception performance against Philadelphia. Tim Hightower is done for the season with a torn ACL and Santana Moss will miss at least a month with injury. They’re technically only 1 game back of the Giants for first place, tied with Dallas for 2^nd, and 1 game above Philadelphia, but this is the worst team in that division.

25(25). Carolina Panthers 2-5

Carolina is one spot above Washington, who has a better record than them, because Carolina just beat Washington and because Washington is a mess right now. Cam Newton has faced a very tough schedule for a rookie this season, but after beating Washington last week, the Panthers have a chance to get two wins in a row against Minnesota this week. The bad news, the Panthers have lost their best run blocker, Jeff Otah, for the season for the 2^nd straight year

24(23). Seattle Seahawks 2-4

Just when you thought Clipboard Jesus was turning things around. Charlie Whitehurst was absolutely terrible and couldn’t move the chains at all last season before their win against St. Louis in the season finale and he looked decent against the Giants, taking over for an injured Tarvaris Jackson. Last week, Whitehurst was terrible again, completing just 12 of his 30 passes for 97 yards (3.2 YPA) in a 6-3 loss to Cleveland that will go down in the record books as one of the worst games ever to watch. It’s going to be on ESPN Classic in hell.

23(24). Denver Broncos 2-4

TEBOW! I don’t understand why all the hate for this kid. All he did was win in college and he’s kept his team competitive in 5 of the 6 games he’s played significant time in, including week 5 against San Diego when he came in down in 16 and almost led a game winning drive. The only game the Broncos weren’t competitive in was Tebow’s first start, against Oakland, in which Tebow only got to 16 throws time even though his starting running back was averaging less than 1.5 yards per carry. The defense also allowed 39 points in that one. Maybe the haters will shut up if Tebow beats the reeling Detroit Lions this week (upset special).

22(28). Kansas City Chiefs 3-3

And the Chiefs have become one of the most overrated teams in the league again. It’s amazing, even though they beat absolutely no one of note last year and got embarrassed in the playoffs, everyone thinks the Chiefs are awesome again at 3-3 even though their 3 wins this year were against Indianapolis (no wins), Minnesota (1 win), and the shit show that was the week 7 Oakland Raiders. I hope the Chargers destroy them this week, but then again, the Chargers seem to still be in early season form.

21(22). Cleveland Browns 3-3

It’ll be interesting to see what Colt McCoy’s future will be in Cleveland if he keeps this up. This is a very good year to need a quarterback with guys like Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Landry Jones, and Matt Barkley coming out and the Browns will be in position to take one of the 4 most likely. He hasn’t gotten much help for his receiver, but McCoy has completed just 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.2 yards per with 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in his short career so far, and they only have a 3^rd round pick invested in him.

20(17). Tennessee Titans 3-3

I think we can all agree the Titans’ 3-1 start was a fluke. The Titans got 3 wins early against the Browns, the Broncos, and the Ravens (who, as we all know, are very proven to shitty performances), but in their last two games, the Titans have lost 79-24 to the Steelers and the Texans, two legitimate playoff teams. With Kenny Britt out and Chris Johnson averaging 2.9 yards per carry (how many Twinkies did he eat during his holdout), the Titans have no offensive playmakers and the defense isn’t playing well either.

19(16). Oakland Raiders 4-3

How’s that Carson Palmer deal working out? I know it was just his first start and he hadn’t been with the team that long, but that was predictable because he hadn’t been with the team that long. You can’t plug and play quarterbacks, especially when they’ve been sitting on their ass counting their money for 8 months and they weren’t very good to begin with. Between Palmer and Kyle Boller, the Raiders had 6 picks last week. In other news, Al Davis came back to live to fire Hue Jackson.

18(20). Cincinnati Bengals 4-2

On bye last week.

17(18). New York Giants 4-2

On bye last week.

16(19). Chicago Bears 4-3

The Bears move up fresh off of beating the Buccaneers in the NFL’s stupid London game. With the Lions in free fall, the Bears could be in position to take their playoff spot, but they’ll have to beat them to do it. I still have the Lions just a bit above the Bears because I don’t trust this offensive line and Jay Cutler is a sitting duck if they can’t run the football.

 

15(15). Dallas Cowboys 3-3

The Cowboys dominated the Rams, but then again the Rams suck so we didn’t learn anything about them. With Washington being terrible and New York having a brutal 2^nd half schedule, I think the Cowboys can win this division, but they’ll have to start by beating the Eagles this week, no easy task considering Andy Reid has only lost after a bye once since 1999 and that was the Super Bowl against the Patriots.

14(11). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-3

The Buccaneers take a step back after losing to the Bears in London. The Buccaneers are especially screwed over because that game technically counted as a home game even though they had to travel longer than any team has to travel for a road game. On top of that, the Falcons have looked 2 in two straight weeks and might be finding some of their 2010 form. The Buccaneers still have to go to New Orleans and Atlanta, two very tough places to win. I have them just out of the playoffs right now.

13(7). Detroit Lions 5-2

They can’t run the ball and they can’t stop the run, which means Matt Stafford has to be awesome every game for them to win and he is awesome a lot, especially with the weapons around him, but he’s starting to take a beating thanks to a poor job upfront by the offensive line. He might not play this week against Denver after suffering two injuries against Atlanta. The Lions are a young team reeling right now and I don’t know if they can bounce back. They still have to play San Diego and Green Bay (twice), along with a trip to Chicago, which won’t be easy.

12(14). New York Jets 4-3

Plaxico Burress is back! He caught 3 touchdowns against the Chargers! Not so fast, he only had 4 catches for 25 yards. All of his touchdowns were short stuff in the end zone, which isn’t easy, but he hardly had a huge game. The Jets should have lost that game, but the Chargers imploded, just like they should have lost to the Cowboys, but the Cowboys imploded. I’m still not sold on this team. Mark Sanchez is being asked to do too much and getting exposed.

11(5). Baltimore Ravens 4-2

Good Flacco, Bad Flacco. Good Flacco, in 3 games he’s combined to go 64 of 110 (58.1%) for 918 yards (8.3 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 1 pick. In his other 3 he’s combined to go 46 of 101 (45.5%) for 497 yards (4.9 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 4 picks. The good news is that Flacco hasn’t had two bad games in a row so he should bounce back against Arizona. The bad news is that he hasn’t had two good games in a row and they play the Steelers after that game. I think the Steelers are better right now and I can’t call the Ravens a legitimate contender unless I see more consistency from them.

10(12). Philadelphia Eagles 2-4

On bye last week.

9(8). Buffalo Bills 4-2

On bye last week.

8(13). Atlanta Falcons 4-3

With two nice wins over the Lions and the Panthers, the Falcons seem to be back in business. They still have home games against New Orleans and Tampa Bay remaining, as well as cakewalk home games against Tennessee, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. They also have road games at Indianapolis and at Carolina. That feels like 10 wins at least.

7(9). Houston Texans 4-3

The Texans just destroyed the Titans in Tennessee and it’s not like the Jaguars or the Colts are any good so they should win this division pretty easily. They’re getting Andre Johnson back and look at the rest of their schedule. Home for Jacksonville, home for Cleveland, at Tampa Bay, at Jacksonville, home for Houston, at Cincinnati, home for Carolina, at Indianapolis, home for Tennessee. I smell 11 wins.

6(10). Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2

Well look at this, two games after being written off following a loss in Houston and the Steelers are at 5-2 and in 2^nd place in the AFC. I don’t think their chances against New England this week, but they should be able to get revenge on the Ravens week 9. The Steelers might not be as dominant as they were last year, but they have continuity, experience, and an identity and in a down year for football in general, that’s enough to be a top 6 team and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

5(6). San Francisco 49ers 5-1

On bye last week.

4(3). San Diego Chargers 4-2

I have the Chargers higher than the 49ers because I still think the Chargers can turn it on in the 2^nd half again. Also, Alex Smith is the 49ers quarterback. Alex Smith. I know the 49ers play disciplined football and awesome defense, but of the last 22 quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl, 21 had made a Pro Bowl before and the only one who didn’t was Eli Manning and he made one the very next year. I don’t think Smith is having a Pro Bowl type year unless like 7 guys decline, while Rivers has made Pro Bowls before. That’s why the Chargers are ranked higher.

3(4). New Orleans Saints 5-2

The Saints scored 62 points last week. The Rams have scored 56 all season. These two teams play each other this week. The Saints might win 62-7 yet again. They’re still not better than the Packers or the Patriots, who could have easily done the same thing to Indianapolis as the Saints did last week.

2(2). Green Bay Packers 7-0

The defense let the Vikings hang with them just like it let the Panthers hang with them. Their defense not being as elite as last year should be their only true concern right now, but I think this is still a 14-2 team. I think they lose at San Diego after the bye and one more (@ Detroit or maybe a random one). But I still have no reason to move the Patriots from #1.

1(1). New England Patriots 5-1

On bye last week.