Write ups for teams 21-32 could not be included. My computer didn’t save them and I didn’t feel like rewriting them on short notice. Write ups for those teams will be added later this week.

32. Miami Dolphins 0-4

31. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-4

30. Indianapolis Colts 0-5

29. Kansas City Chiefs 2-3

28. Minnesota Vikings 1-4

27. Denver Broncos 1-4

26. Carolina Panthers 1-4

25. Arizona Cardinals 1-4

24. St. Louis Rams 0-4

23. Seattle Seahawks 2-3

22. Cincinnati Bengals 3-2

21. Cleveland Browns 2-2

20. Chicago Bears 2-3

The Bears picked the wrong division to be 2-3 in. 2-3 has them 3 games back of 3 5-0 teams (Green Bay and Detroit), with loses to both of them.Minnesota, who is better than their 1-4 record would suggest, is coming to town next week looking for revenge after Chicago destroyed them last week. If they lose there, it’s officially panic button time.

19. Tennessee Titans 3-2

So I guess the Titans were overrated after all. After looking good against the likes of Cleveland and Denver, Tennessee got absolutely clubbed by the samePittsburgh team that lost to Tennessee’s division rival Houston the week prior. Tennessee now has a bye to prepare for a home game against a banged up Houston team. That’s easily their biggest game of the season.

18. New York Giants 3-2

What the hell happened to the Giants last week? Giants fans better hope that was the wakeup call the team needed. They have a brutal 2nd half schedule @New England (4-1), @ San Francisco (4-1), vs. Philadelphia (could have everything together by then), @ New Orleans (4-1), vs. Green Bay (5-0), @ Dallas (2-2), vs. Washington (3-1), vs. NY Jets (2-3), vs. Dallas (2-2). They can’t afford to lose games they should win in the first half. If they are anything less than 5-2 heading into New England, I think their playoff chances (9 wins) are very, very slim.

17. Oakland Raiders 3-2

Congratulations to the Raiders on getting an emotional road win in Houston after the passing of their owner Al Davis. The question still remains, how good is this team? It’s unlikely they can keep up the kind of emotional intensity they played with last week for the rest of the season, but they look better than most thought. Al Davis’ most criticized draft pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey, has quietly put together two strong games in a row, and other Davis favorites, Jason Campbell and Darren McFadden, have this offense looking good.

 

16. Dallas Cowboys 2-2

I’m not exactly sure how Tony Romo spent his bye week, but I’m willing to bet it went something like this. Monday through Thursday, he won the lottery, made it rich in the stock market, scored with hundred of hot babes, but then come the 4th quarter of the week (Friday-Saturday), he lost all of his money in a ponzi scheme and developed a disease that left his face hideously deformed and undesirable to every woman in the world.

15. New York Jets 2-3

How bad is this Jets offense? Well, after Mark Sanchez completed 33% of his passes against Baltimore, They managed just 255 yards of total offense against a New England team that had given up a whopping 478 yards per game coming in. Last year they lost to the Dolphins at home as favorites after losing to the Patriots in Foxboro. Will history repeat itself this week with the 0-4 Dolphins coming to New York?

14. Atlanta Falcons 2-3

Anyone who watched the Falcons’ loss to Green Bay knows how frustrated that loss had to be for them. They jumped out to an early 14-0 1st quarter lead, scoring in their first 2 possessions, and held a 14-6 halftime lead, limited Green Bay to 2 mere field goals. On top of all that, Green Bay’s top offensive lineman, Chad Clifton, got hurt and was done for the night. However, Matt Ryan completed less than 50% of his passes after the first 2 drives, while Aaron Rodgers threw for nearly 400 yards in a 25-14 comeback win. Now the Falcons have the feisty Panthers coming to town before they have to head toDetroit. Their season is definitely in danger.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-2

Tampa Bay stays ahead of Atlanta despite a 48-3 loss by virtue of the fact that Atlanta had an equally bad loss this week and Tampa Bay still holds a one game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Buccaneers have to hope that last week was a fluke and that they can get back to playing strong football. They have New Orleans coming to town this week and if they can win that game, they’d be tied with New Orleans atop the division and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

12. San Francisco 49ers 4-1

A 48-3 win over the Buccaneers is bittersweet for the 49ers as they lost wide receiver Josh Morgan to injury in garbage time. However, Jim Harbaugh has to be the early favorite for Coach of the Year by a wide margin. He’s got this team playing disciplined, turnover free football, particularly quarterback Alex Smith (1 turnover in 5 games). They might not be the most talented bunch, but any team can be at least respectable in the NFL if they can run the football, play disciplined defense, and win the turnover battle. This team can do all 3.

11. Washington Redskins 3-1

The Redskins had a nice week off and now get an excellent opportunity, the chance to put the final nail in the coffin of the now 1-4 Philadelphia Eagles coming to town. My NFL Picks will tell you what I think will happen in that game, as will the fact that…

10. Philadelphia Eagles 1-4

Philadelphia is still ranked higher than Washington. Philadelphia looked terrible last week. They had 5 turnovers and jumped off sides on defense on 4th and 1 with no timeouts left late, sealing the loss. Everyone in the building knew what was happening and they still jumped off sides. Are we sure this isn’t a high school team? Anyway, they’re still a talented bunch and if they can win in a must win game in Washington this week, they’d be right back in the race as New York lost last week as well. New York has a brutal 2nd half and Dallas is young and undisciplined. Washington is Philadelphia’s biggest competition for this division and if they can beat them in Washington, everyone will be back on their bandwagon. Of course if they lose, it’s over and they plummet down this list.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2

The lesson as always, never bet against Ben Roethlisberger when no one believes in him. The Titans came into Pittsburgh as trendy upset picks, but the Steelers put the overrated Titans in their place, despite missing Rashard Mendenhall and James Harrison with injury. A banged up Big Ben threw for 5 touchdowns and proved once again, despite what the stats may say, this guy is one of the elites in the league because he does things like this. There’s a reason he has 2 rings.

8. Houston Texans 3-2

What a bad week for the Texans. Not only did Matt Schaub gift wrap a game losing pick in the end zone to Michael Huff against the Raiders (behind he considered it charity following the passing of Al Davis), the Texans also lost Mario Williams for the season leaving their pass rush very thin. Andre Johnson is expected to miss another week with arguably their toughest game of the season (@ Baltimore) on schedule. They’re so thin at receiver they just traded for Derrick Mason, who got benched for a rookie in the slot on the Jets’ poor offense. That big win against Pittsburgh seems like it was months ago now.

7. Buffalo Bills 4-1

The Bills proved they were for real last week. There were some questions on whether or not they were regressing after losing to Cincinnati, but they proved that that loss was just a fluke as a result of a letdown game after a huge win against New England. The Bills looked very good against the Eagles, pushing the “Dream Team” to 1-4 while improving to 4-1 for themselves. There’s something I bet you didn’t see coming.

6. Baltimore Ravens 3-1

The Ravens had a bye this week and hopefully were able to get things straightened out. If Joe Flacco completes 33% of his passes again, this team won’t win. They can’t rely on 4 return touchdowns every week. That’s obvious. The good news is they have the banged up Texans coming to town and a very good chance to go to 4-1 and prove themselves once more as one of the top teams in the league.

5. Detroit Lions 5-0

How awesome would it be if Detroit and Green Bay were both undefeated for their Thanksgiving matchup. You look at their schedule, vs. San Francisco, vs. Atlanta, @ Denver, bye, @ Chicago, vs. Carolina, and it’s certainly possible. I’d argue that this week’s matchup with San Francisco is going to be their toughest because they’re in their first of two home games (teams tend to struggle in this situation) and they’re coming off of a big win on MNF and they’re a young team. However, this team is really talented. They beat the Bears by 11 and didn’t even look good doing it. The only reason they aren’t higher here is because I think any of the 4 teams above them beat them on a neutral field.

4. San Diego Chargers 4-1

The Chargers haven’t looked great in the early going this season, yet again, but it hasn’t mattered. A ridiculously easy early schedule, Minnesota (1-4), New England (4-1), Kansas City (2-3), Miami (0-4), Denver (1-4) has them enjoying their first 4-1 start of the Norv Turner era. The schedule doesn’t get much harder as they play the Jets (2-3) and then Kansas City (2-3) in 2 more games they can win at less than 100%. They could be 6-1 week 9 heading into Green Bay and if they play like they can starting then, I see no reason why they can’t win 12 or 13 games. Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, and Buffalo are all tough 2nd half games, but they can at least salvage a split in those games because they’re so talented.

3. New Orleans Saints 4-1

Almost losing to Carolina isn’t that embarrassing. It seems like everyone almost loses to Carolina. New Orleans stays here heading into Tampa Bay this week. That game is a game with a lot for them to lose, but not a lot for them to gain. If they win, at best they stay where they are. They aren’t better than Green Bay or New England. If they lose, they fall. That’s simple. The good news is that no one seems to be talking about New Orleans. Somehow they are sleepers. This is the wrong team to sleep on.

2. Green Bay Packers 5-0

The Packers proved they can beat teams without looking very good last week, beating Atlanta in Atlanta, no easy task, despite not even playing anywhere near their best football. They did a similar thing in Carolina. If they lose a single game other than one of their 2 against Detroit or their week 9 game againstSan Diego, I’m going to be very surprised.

1. New England Patriots 4-1

That being said, the Patriots remain on top. I picked them at the beginning of the season and I have no reason to back on that. They didn’t play that will against New York and still put up 30 points for the 13th straight regular season game. Two streaks that did end, Tom Brady threw for fewer than 2 touchdowns for the first time in 14 games. Also, Tom Brady threw the first red zone pick of his career at home, though it was on a dropped touchdown by Aaron Hernandez. The good news, their amazing home winning streak is still intact, as is their long regular season winning streak. Also if Darrelle Revis can’t stop Wes Welker, no one can.

 

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 8-5

Last week ATS: 5-7-1 (-460/-3 units)

Overall picks: 50-27 (.649)

Upset Picks: 3-3 (+420/4 units)

ATS Picks: 38-36-3 (+840/+14 units)

Survivor picks: 4-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG)

Upset picks: 8-12 (+260/-1 unit) 

Last week was pretty neutral. I lost money ($460) on my ATS picks, but because I moved a few of my ATS onto the money line (lines of +1.5 or lower), I was able to make money ($420), with my money line upsets. I also made money with nice calls on Oakland’s upset, as well as Cincinnati’s and Buffalo’s. My only 5 unit pick of the week was 5 Cincinnati’s money line, which I nailed. I did drop 2 of my 3 4 unit picks, but things happen. I’m still up on the season and I only lost $40 dollars last week, +1 unit. I also nailed 3 of my top 5 picks again. This week I have 6 big picks (4 units or more). This is a big week.

 

Green Bay Packers 28 St. Louis Rams 16

Pick against spread: St. Louis +15 (-110) 2 units (-220)

This Packers team is unbelievable. All the angles said they wouldn’t cover last week in Atlanta. Matt Ryan rarely loses at home. I thought I had everything handicapped perfectly as the Falcons jumped out to a 14-0 lead early with touchdowns on their first 2 possessions. It even looked good when they led 14-6 at halftime. Green Bay’s best offensive lineman, Chad Clifton, left with an injury, and the Packers were having trouble pass protecting to that point in the game. The Falcons had held the Packers to field goals on their last 2 drives.

However, Aaron Rodgers came out in the 2^nd half and led the Packers to a 25-14 win, as the defense shut down Matt Ryan and company. Ryan completed less than 50% of his passes after the first two drives and Rodgers nearly threw for 400 yards. There was one trend I forgot. Aaron Rodgers is 27-13 ATS since 2009. I guess he’s pretty good.

Does that mean I’m going to blindly bet Aaron Rodgers from here on out? Not necessarily. There’s a very powerful trend in play here. Teams 0-4 or worse are 22-3 ATS coming off of a bye. I especially like the Rams in this situation. They’re a talented bunch who might just need a week to regroup and stop underachieving.

Besides, they’ve played a tough schedule, Philadelphia (before everything went wrong), NY Giants (3-2), Baltimore (3-1), and Washington (3-1). I think they’re a bit underrated coming out of the bye and the Packers could overlook them. They could easily hang within 2 touchdowns. Besides, Aaron Rodgers is only a mere 5-3 ATS as 10+ favorites since 2009, in comparison to 27-13 ATS overall. I’m not putting any more than 2 units on them here, though, because Aaron Rodgers is awesome.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -13 (+105) 1 unit (-100)

The trends said Tennessee was going to beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last week. I was skeptical and wary of betting heavily on Tennessee because Pittsburgh was a proud veteran team playing for respect and to stay in the playoff mix and Tennessee I felt could have been a bit overrated. Besides, everyone was counting the Steelers out. That had to piss them off. You don’t want to play this team when they’re pissed off. Sure enough, they blew out Tennessee.

I know 13 points might seem like a lot here for Pittsburgh, a team that doesn’t have a great offense. However, covering as double digit favorites only seems to be a problem for Pittsburgh in the Mike Tomlin era on the road. They’re 0-4 ATS in that situation, but 7-3 ATS at home. Going down to 7+ point lines, at home they’re 11-4 ATS, but 2-6 ATS on the road. Here, they are at home.

Besides, Jacksonville sucks. They just lost back to back home games by 10+, last week to Cincinnati, who is hardly the class of the league. The Jets blew them out week 2. The Jets haven’t won since. They lost to Carolina week 3. That’s Carolina’s only win. Their -56 point differential is 3^rd worst in the league. They can easily get blown out here. I’m just not making it a big bet because Jack Del Rio is 4-1 ATS coming off a 10+ point loss as a favorite and because I’m not sure how much I trust Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Redskins 17 Survivor Pick (4-1, NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-110) 4 units (+400)

If Philadelphia loses this week, it’s over. It’s done. They might as well start sucking for luck. They would be 3.5 games back of Washington, who would hold the tiebreaker, sitting at 1-5 with 5 straight losses as favorites. You can bet this team knows this. This week is essentially their Super Bowl. I expect them to have the game of their lives, especially with a bye week rest coming up.

There are angles to support this. The Eagles are in their 2^nd straight road game and facing a divisional opponent. Since 2008, teams are 62-34 ATS in this situation, 40-18 ATS as underdogs. I know the Eagles aren’t underdogs here, but they’re very small favorites, so it’s similar. When the line is -3 to +3, teams are 13-7 ATS in this situation. Teams in their 2^nd second consecutive road game in general are 141-103 ATS since 2008. Andy Reid is 19-11 ATS as a head coach in that situation. Going more specific, teams in their 2^nd straight road game after losing as favorites in the first one are 16-9 ATS since 2008, 8-4 ATS when the 2^nd game is divisional.

Besides, Andy Reid has never lost 5 straight games in his career as a head coach. He’s lost 4 straight 3 times, but never 5. For those of you who are geniuses, you probably figured out that means he’s 3-0 all time in games after losing 4 straight. One trend that does work against Philadelphia is that teams are 1-6 ATS as favorites after losing in 4 straight as favorites.

However, they aren’t very big favorites here and I refuse to believe that Philadelphia is this bad. Andy Reid teams tend to struggle out of the gate and it was predictable they would struggle early. They have a new defensive coordinator and a lot of new players coming out of a lockout shortened offseason. I still think they pull out an NFC East title and it’ll start here with a straight up win and thus an ATS win.

 

Detroit Lions 31 San Francisco 49ers 21

Pick against spread: Detroit -4 (-110) 2 units (-220)

Wow. The Lions and 49ers are a combined 9-1. Did not see that one coming. The Lions aren’t necessarily that surprising. I thought they could be 3-2 or 4-1 here because they have a talented team that just needed to stay healthy. However, I had the 49ers as one of the worst teams in the league. I didn’t think there was any way Jim Harbaugh could have this big of an impact this quickly, coming off of a lockout.

That being said, I think this line is a little off. The 49ers massive blowout over a tired (east coast team playing on the west coast after a Monday Night game) and probably overrated Buccaneers team has skewed this line a little. I thought we’d see this as maybe -6, -5 at the least. Instead, it’s -4.

On top of that, the 49ers are playing in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM as a west coast team. Teams tend to struggle in this situation, though the 49ers have won in this situation twice this year so maybe they’re immune. More likely, it’s a fluke. Finally, the Lions are coming off a Monday Night win of 10+ points. Teams are 53-38 ATS in this situation since 2002, 26-18 ATS when they were home favorites on Monday Night. For this reason, I’m making a small play on Detroit.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 26

Pick against spread: Carolina +4 (-115) 3 units (-345)

This was a tough one. There’s a lot of angles in Atlanta’s favor. In the Mike Smith era, Atlanta is 17-10 ATS at home. In the Mike Smith era, the Falcons are 14-3 ATS off of a loss, 4-0 ATS off of a home loss and 3-0 ATS at home off of a home loss. They’re also 6-2 ATS off of not covering at home, 4-1 at home off of not covering at home. However, there’s something different about this year’s Falcons. They seem to suck. I’ve used those trends to bet on Atlanta in the past two weeks and they haven’t covered in either. They’ve looked really bad against Seattle and Green Bay.

Besides, Cam Newton is awesome, at least against the spread. While the Panthers are 1-4 this season, they are 4-0-1 ATS. This shouldn’t be surprising as Sam Bradford did the same thing last year. The Rams were 10-6 ATS last year, 9-3 ATS in their first 12 before the Vegas lines finally caught up to them. The Panthers almost won at home against New Orleans last week when the situations were going against them. They could easily win or almost win here in Atlanta with situations going against them.

Two more things, Atlanta is going to be flat off of last week’s loss to Green Bay. Anyone who watched that game has to know how heartbreaking it was for Atlanta to go up 14-0 in a big revenge game against the Super Bowl champs and still lose pretty convincingly. This is also a textbook trap game. Atlanta is favorites after being underdogs and before being underdogs. The Falcons head to Detroit next week where they will almost certainly be underdogs. Teams in this situation are 62-89 ATS since 2008, 21-43 ATS off of a loss as dogs and a pitiful 4-10 ATS off of a loss as home dogs.

The final thing is that this is a revenge game for Carolina. Atlanta beat up on Carolina week 17 last year. Divisional road teams are 72-47 ATS trying to avenge a loss of 14+. I would make this a 4 or 5 unit bet if we were getting better line value with Atlanta. I still don’t like the idea of betting against Atlanta when a lot of angles are in their situation, especially since they are at home. I don’t like the idea of picking an inferior (1-4) road team to win straight up in Atlanta, especially since Atlanta could be playing for their season this week. However, I’m still picking Carolina for 3.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick (+280)

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-105) 5 units (-525)

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 facing the 0-5 Colts. If you had fallen into a coma 6 months ago, woke up today, and saw that, I’m pretty sure you would freak out and jump out a window and end up in a coma again. However, this is reality. Peyton Manning is hurt and the Colts suck, while the Bengals are sitting pretty at 3-2.

However, should the Bengals be 7 point favorites here? I don’t know if they’re necessarily 4 points better than Indianapolis. Their 3-2 record is a little misleading. They’ve played Cleveland (2-2 against a weak schedule), Denver (1-4), San Francisco (4-1), Buffalo (4-1, but they were flat off a huge win against New England), and Jacksonville (1-4). I’m not so sure that if we bet on Cincinnati, we’re not betting on a team that finishes 6-10 or worse as favorites of 6+. Teams in that situation are 22-61 ATS since 2002.

Besides, are the Colts really as bad as their 0-5 record would suggest? They aren’t exactly getting blown out, with the exception of their week 1 game in Houston. They’ve hung within 7 of Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, two teams superior to Cincinnati, so why can’t they hang within 7 of Cincinnati? Also, their losses to Cleveland and Kansas City were by less than 7 as well. I like getting this team plus 7.

On top of that, Cincinnati sucks as favorites since Marvin Lewis has taken over. As favorites of 7+, Cincinnati is 4-11 ATS since 2003. As favorites of 3+, they are 18-23 ATS since 2003, but 1-9 ATS since 2008. As favorites of any kind since 2008, the Bengals are 4-14 ATS. The Colts are also playing for their pride this week. Teams 0-5 or worse are 38-28 ATS since 2002. They’re devalued by Vegas and desperate for a win at the same time. Lastly, Curtis Painter is getting better every week. I think this is the week he actually gets a win and the Colts become winless no more.

One trend that makes me a little uneasy is that favorites of 7+ are 42-16 before a bye since 2002. That’s a pretty powerful trend (one I’ll use later) and Cincinnati is in that situation. However, this trend makes sense because good teams tend to be focused heading into a bye. I just don’t know how good Cincinnati really is. I don’t think they deserve to be 7 point favorites against anyone, even the lowly Colts.

New York Giants 31 Buffalo Bills 27

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3 (-130) 1 unit (+0)

What the hell happened to the Giants last week? All the angles were in their favor. They’re an excellent first half team. They had covered and won in 3 straight weeks. The Seahawks had been terrible on the road in the past few years against teams that weren’t terrible offensively, especially on the East Coast and yet the Giants lost at home by double digits. Unbelievable.

Giants fans better hope that was the wakeup call the team needed. They have a brutal 2^nd half schedule @ New England (4-1), @ San Francisco (4-1), vs. Philadelphia (could have everything together by then), @ New Orleans (4-1), vs. Green Bay (5-0), @ Dallas (2-2), vs. Washington (3-1), vs. NY Jets (2-3), vs. Dallas (2-2). They can’t afford to lose games they should win in the first half. If they are anything less than 5-2 heading into New England, I think their playoff chances (9 wins) are very, very slim.

There are reasons for optimism for the Giants this week. They typically rebound well as a favorite after a loss as a favorite. They are 7-2 in the Tom Coughlin era in this situation, including a home win on Monday Night Football over St. Louis a few weeks ago. However, the Bills are a tough test and I don’t know if I necessarily agree with this line. I think the Bills are a better team right now, so I don’t understand why New York is -3 with a 130 juice at home. I also don’t trust this erratic New York team. I’m taking New York for just a unit.

Baltimore Ravens 28 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

The Texans were riding high a week ago after beating the Steelers and improving to 3-1. However, a week later, they are 3-2 after a home loss to Oakland and now they have to go into Baltimore. Not only that, but they’ve lost wide receiver Andre Johnson for at least this game and their top pass rusher Mario Williams for the season with injury.

This was a tough line for me, though. I feel it accurately takes into account Houston’s injuries so there’s no line value betting against a banged up Houston team. A week ago, I felt maybe Houston would be -4.5 going into Baltimore, but this line is accurate given their injuries. Baltimore is going to be rested coming out of a bye and favorites of 7+ coming out of a bye are 30-16 ATS since 2002, excluding the playoffs.

But at the same time, they didn’t look so great before the bye with Joe Flacco completing roughly 33% of his passes against New York. Houston is still a talented team, so I’m taking Baltimore, but only for a unit. I’m also not entirely sure how bad Houston is with all of their injuries. We’ll found out this week and I’m scared to bet against (or on) an unknown commodity.

Oakland Raiders 24 Cleveland Browns 21

Pick against spread: Cleveland +6 (-110) 2 units (-220)

Oakland had an amazing performance last week, beating Houston in Houston just a day after the death of their owner Al Davis. It did help that Matt Schaub lobbed a pass to Oakland’s Michael Huff in the end zone to seal the victory for Oakland. I guess you could say that’s charity at its finest. Now they return home, another emotional game for them in the house that Al Davis built (it’s a dump for the record, but whatever). Could they have yet another emotionally charged performance this week and blow out the lowly Browns? They could, but it’s tough to play with that level of intensity for two straight weeks.

Oakland is just 3-10 in their last 13 instances as favorites and Jason Campbell for his career is 1-7 as a favorite of 6.5+. I know this line is 6, but it’s close. Oakland is also in their 1^st of 3 home games. Favorites in their 1^st of 2+ home games are weirdly 28-43 ATS as favorites over the past two years, 19-34 in their first of 2+ as home favorites. Oakland has Kansas City coming to town next week, so they’ll definitely be favorites then as well. I’ll take the points for a small bet.

New England Patriots 38 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: New England -7.5 (+100) 4 units (-400)

I mentioned that favorites of 7+ are 42-16 ATS heading into a bye earlier. I didn’t want to use this in Cincinnati’s case because I don’t think Cincinnati deserves to be favorites of 7+. New England definitely does. They’re an excellent team and they’ll be focused here heading into a bye. They always are anyway. Belichick is 12-7 ATS going into a bye in his career as a head coach.

Besides, New England matches up really well with Dallas. Dallas is a young team that loves to make mistakes and shoot itself in the foot. The Patriots prey on teams that shoot themselves in the foot. If you shoot yourself in the foot, they’ll shoot you in the head. It’s as simple as that. Why do you think they always dominant the Chargers?

Plus, I think we’re getting line value here. New England is -7.5 with a juice of +100 here? They were -9 with a juice of -110 a week ago against the Jets. The Jets beat the Cowboys. There’s no way Dallas is 2 or so points better than a team they lost to.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick (+185)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +4.5 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Buccaneers lost a close one last week, 48-3. Just 7 more touchdowns and they would have won it. In all seriousness, that big loss last week is a good thing. Not only is Vegas going to undervalue them this week, their opponent could overlook them, and they’ll be playing for their dignity. I was expecting this line to be somewhere around -1.5 or -2 in favor of New Orleans. This line says New Orleans is 7.5 points better than Tampa Bay and that they’d be -10.5 in New Orleans. That seems a little bit of an overreaction. Since 2002, dogs of 3+ after a loss of 21+ are 144-106 ATS, 58-38 ATS since 2008.

Speaking of overreaction, New Orleans was -7.5 in Jacksonville and -6.5 in Carolina. Tampa Bay is only 3 points better than Jacksonville? Huh? And the Panthers almost beat New Orleans last week. Why can’t the Buccaneers do the same thing this week, or even win straight up. After all, the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in New Orleans week 17 last year. I know the Buccaneers sucked last week and the Panthers are better than their 1-4 record, but it’s tough to argue Carolina is better than Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s loss last week was excusable. They had a short week after a Monday Night Football game and had to travel 3 time zones.

Besides, New Orleans isn’t very good on the road, especially outdoors against quality opponents, which I believe the Buccaneers are. New Orleans is a mere 4-8 ATS on the road in the past 2 seasons. Let’s look at their outdoor games in the past 2 seasons. 3 point win at San Francisco (6-10), 10 point loss at Arizona (5-11), 25 point win at Tampa Bay (10-6, more on this game later), 31 point win at Carolina (2-14), 3 point win at Dallas (6-10), 4 point win at Cincinnati (4-12), 6 point loss at Baltimore (12-4), 3 point win at Atlanta (13-3), 5 point loss at Seattle (8-10), 8 point loss at Green Bay (5-0), 13 point win at Jacksonville (1-4), 3 point win at Carolina (1-4). That’s not that impressive.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 6-5 at home in the past 2 years, as opposed to 7-3 on the road. However, this doesn’t mean they’re a bad home team. Since LeGarrette Blount took over as their starting running back, this team is 5-3 at home and they’ve lost once by more than 4 and that was a 7 point loss to Detroit week 1 this year, a game they had a chance to win at the last second.

Their 25 point loss to New Orleans last year at home was without Blount. In fact, Tampa Bay’s leading rusher in that game was Cadillac Williams with 18 yards. They avenged that loss and proved they were for real week 17 in New Orleans.

I think they can win this game here and definitely keep it close. I think they’re being devalued here because of how badly they played last week and because they didn’t blow out teams like Minnesota and Indianapolis. However, Tampa Bay isn’t built to blow teams out. Plus, Detroit didn’t blow out Minnesota. Pittsburgh didn’t blow out Indianapolis. Do those teams suck? Those 2 teams have lost a combined 1 game by more than a touchdown this year and that was week 1.

Also, I believe that last week was a fluke for Tampa Bay. They were tired off a short travel week across 3 time zones and looking forward to New Orleans this week. I think they can take advantage of how poor New Orleans’ plays on the road and win here straight up in a huge game for them, playing for both their pride and potentially for a division title (these two teams would be tied with Tampa Bay holding the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay wins here).

Minnesota Vikings 27 Chicago Bears 24 Upset Pick (+140)

Pick against spread: Minnesota +3 (-120) 4 units (-480)

I was ready to put 5 units on Minnesota in this game. All the angles are against Chicago. Chicago is coming off of a loss of 10+ on Monday Night Football. Teams are 10-20 ATS in this situation since 2008 and 33-58 ATS since 2003. They’re also in a textbook sandwich game, favorites before and after being underdogs. They head to Tampa Bay next week.

Teams in that situation are 62-89 ATS since 2008, 39-66 ATS off of a loss, 7-20 off a divisional loss, 3-8 ATS off of a Monday Night loss, 14-31 ATS off of a loss of 10 or more, 2-10 off of a divisional loss of 10 or more, and 0-6 off of a loss of 10 or more on Monday Night. Tracing that trend back to 2002, favorites are 2-13 ATS (0-4 off a divisional loss) off of a 10+ point Monday Night loss as underdogs, assuming they will be underdogs the next week as well, and I think they will be underdogs in Tampa Bay. On top of that, Minnesota is a road dog trying to avenge a big divisional loss, a situation teams are 72-47 ATS in.

History lesson time, week 14 last year the Jets were coming off of that big Monday Night loss to the Patriots and were home for the “lowly” Dolphins. They had an upcoming game with the Steelers and lost as 7 point favorites to the Dolphins, 10-6. I see something similar happening this week with the Bears.

However, I was expecting this line to be like 6 or 7. Not 3. Minnesota and Chicago are equal? What? There are two reactions to this. One, I could make my bet a lot smaller. Two, I could assume it’s a trap bet and keep my bet the same. I’m going to side with the latter. The trends heavily favor Minnesota, but Vegas knows people aren’t going to bet Chicago as big favorites after their loss last week on national TV so they made the line really small. If that’s their intent, then it’s working. The public is betting heavily on Chicago.

If that is their intent, it’s even more reason to pick Minnesota. I’m still making a big bet on Minnesota, but for 4 instead of 5. I think Minnesota is underrated. They held big leads against San Diego, Detroit, and Tampa Bay, 3 teams better than Chicago, and they blew out Arizona last week. The Vikings have yet to be blown out. They’ve lost by 7, 4, 3 (OT), and 5. I think they can beat Chicago.

Miami Dolphins 16 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick (+250)

Pick against spread: Miami +7.5 (-120) 5 units (-600)

Miami is 0-4. They have sucked so far this season, but they’re coming out of a bye. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are 22-3 ATS coming off of a bye, as Miami is. 0-4 teams in general are 23-11 ATS since 2002. The simple truth is that Vegas tends to undervalue them. 0-4 is bad, but it’s not awful quite yet, especially coming out of a bye.

Matt Moore will start at quarterback for the Dolphins, which is an upgrade over Chad Henne. Henne constantly killed this talented team with his turnovers and inconsistencies. Moore isn’t great, but he won’t turn the ball over as much. Remember, he did go 4-1 with the 2009 Panthers after Jake Delhomme got benched. This is a similar situation, solid supporting cast held captive by its starting quarterback’s inability to take care of the ball. I think Moore can have some success here.

Besides, I love betting against the Jets -7+ at this point. They don’t have the kind of offense deserving of being 7+ point favorites. We all know how bad they were week 4 against Baltimore, but how about last week versus New England. They managed just 255 yards of total offense against a New England team that had given up a whopping 478 yards per game coming in. New England’s defense is so bad that they held New York to 255 yards and they’re still the worst defense in the league in terms of yards allowed. This Jets offense just isn’t very good and the Dolphins do have good talent on defense.

On top of that, the Jets could be flat coming off of a loss to New England. They’re also sandwiched between that loss at New England and an upcoming game with San Diego. Favorites coming off of a loss as a favorite, who will be favorites the next week are 21-43 ATS since 2008, 7-20 ATS when the loss is divisional.

Will the Jets be underdogs with San Diego in town next week? If they aren’t, then they’re definitely going to be favorites of less than 3. Either way, they’re playing a superior team, which is why this is a sandwich game. Plus, teams who are in the first of two home games are weirdly 45-62 ATS since the start of last year, 28-43 ATS as favorites, 19-34 ATS in their first of 2+ as home favorites.

If it helps, the Jets have been in this situation before. In fact, this exact same situation happened last year. The Jets had just lost to the Patriots and had a home game in which they were 7 point favorites for Miami. They also had an upcoming game with the Bears, a superior opponent at the time. The Jets lost 10-6 and I made a lot of money betting on Miami. I’m doing the same thing here and I feel more confident about it because the Jets are doing worse offensively now than they were at this time last year and because the Dolphins at 0-4 are going to be even more overlooked.

Speaking of the Dolphins, they are 7-20 ATS at home since Tony Sparano took over and 17-9 ATS on the road, as they are here. I love betting this team on the road because for some reason they play better on the road than at home, particularly as dogs, 14-6 ATS. They were 1-7 straight up at home last year and 6-2 on the road. This year, they’ve lost by double digits at home twice, but on the road, they almost beat Cleveland, and they hung within San Diego until late, despite the fact that they had to switch quarterbacks mid game because of injury. Matt Moore will have had about 2 weeks to get in sync with the rest of this Dolphins offense this week and I think they have a legitimate chance of winning. I like them to win and I absolutely love them to cover this week.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Miami +7, Minnesota +2.5, Indianapolis +7, New England -7, Tampa Bay +4.5 (14-11 on the season). 

 

 

 

32(31). Kansas City Chiefs 1-3

The Chiefs fall to 32 despite their first win of the season last week for several reasons. One, they beat lowly Minnesota and they didn’t do it convincingly. Besides, they were at home. If that game’s played in Minnesota, they lose. My point will essentially be proven this week when they lose in Indianapolis. Also, Minnesota has a glimmer of hope in Christian Ponder, who could come on late and win a few games for them. Kansas City is stuck with Cassel. I have Minnesota ranked slightly higher for that reason. Also, Seattle looked good in a home loss to Atlanta so they move up 2 spots to 30 right above Minnesota.

31(25). Minnesota Vikings 0-4

A lot of people are calling for McNabb to be benched, which I don’t agree with. Yes, Ponder might be the best quarterback on their roster, but they brought in McNabb because they didn’t feel Ponder would be ready early this season. It’s still early and they’re doing the right thing by not rushing Ponder just because they’re 0-4, especially since Ponder would have a terrible supporting cast should he be made starter right now. Besides, it’s not like they’re in a playoff race. If McNabb starts the season 0-7 (entirely possible with Arizona, Chicago, and Green Bay next on the schedule), all that really does is help their draft status and help them land the blue chip left tackle (Matt Kalil?) they desperately need.

30(32). Seattle Seahawks 1-3

Seattle reminded us this week what we should have shown all along, they’ve got a tremendous home field advantage. They almost beat Atlanta, a week after beating Arizona. Simply put, this is too good of a home team in too bad of a road division (8-30 in the last two years on the road), to consider them favorites in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, no matter how bad their team actually is.

29(30). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3

If the field crew paints the field on incorrectly, but no one is there to watch it, do they still suck at their jobs? I’d say yes. How do you mess that up? The field obviously confused rookie Blaine Gabbert, who completed just 16 of 42 for 196 yards. That has to be it. It can’t be that he’s just a bad quarterback or anything. All the “experts” loved him coming out of Missouri. They can’t all be wrong even though he threw just 16 touchdowns in a pass heavy offense his senior year.

28(27). Denver Broncos 1-3

Is Tebow starting yet? Ok, maybe I’ll change up the topic for the Broncos this week. Knowshon “Know Show” Moreno has 26 yards on 10 yards this year and is averaging a mere 4.0 per carry for his career. This week, he also famously had major trouble with an exercise back on the sidelines. Can we call him a bust? Hell, can we just agree that drafting running backs in the first round is not a great idea. Sure, you hit on some occasionally (McFadden, Peterson, Johnson), but for every one of those in the past two years, there’s a Moreno, or a Marshawn Lynch, a Donald Brown, or even a Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Chris Wells type, yeah, they’re solid, but were they really worth a first rounder, or a Jahvid Best, Ryan Matthews, CJ Spiller, Mark Ingram type, they’re still young, but there have a pretty slim chance of being McFadden, Peterson, or Johnson.

27(28). Miami Dolphins 0-4

Uh oh, Chad Henne is hurt and possibly done for the season. This is a huge hit to their chances in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Credit the Dolphins for trying, they’ve contacted Trent Edwards, Brodie “0-10” Croyle, and Jake “pick six” Delhomme, but none of those look likely right now. They may have to resort to calling up our old pal JaMarcus Russell, because Matt Moore actually played decent (relatively) against San Diego (17-26 for 167 yards and a desperation time pick). He might win them a few games.

26(22). Indianapolis Colts 0-4

Can you win MVP if you don’t play a down, because if you can, Peyton Manning should be the clear winner. In 7 of the past 8 seasons, Peyton Manning has lost a minimum of 4 regular season games. Without him, the Colts have lost 4 in 4 games. The good news for Colts fans (unless they’ve really hoping for Andrew Luck), the schedule does get easier (Kansas City, Cincinnati), and Curtis Painter looked decently enough in his first career start where there’s potential for him to grow into a borderline sort of decent quarterback in the future, or at least one who knows how to utilize all the weapons the Colts have provided for him. They’ll win some games.

25(29). Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Andy Dalton is having a Jekyll and Hyde type rookie season. He looked solid in the opener against Cleveland in a win, but then didn’t play as well in losses to Denver and San Francisco, before leading a big 2^nd half comeback against the previous 3-0 Bills last week. If Dalton can play well, the Bengals have the right combination of an easy schedule and a strong offensive line and running game to put up a decent wins total, but Dalton just isn’t someone I would trust to do that consistently at this stage in his career.

24(26). Carolina Panthers 1-3

All in favor of renaming Cam Newton “The King of the Backdoor Cover.” The Panthers are 3-0-1 ATS this season, despite a 1-3 record and there’s no one I’d rather have in the league down two scores with the ball against a prevent defense needing a “meaningless” touchdown to cover a line of 7 or fewer than Newton. New Orleans -6 provides his biggest test yet this week. Let’s see if he can keep it up. And this is not a slight on Newton’s abilities. For Newton to even be “The King of the Backdoor Cover” as a rookie is pretty remarkable considering he started just 1 season at Auburn.

23(24). St. Louis Rams 0-4

Sam Bradford might actually die in one of these games. He’s taken 18 sacks in 4 games. That’s actually 3 more than Jay Cutler and it’s not Bradford’s fault. He’s getting the ball out quickly, but this offensive line is not doing their part. What happened to them? Coming into the season they had 2 young, talented bookends in Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith, a big free agent acquisition in Harvey Dahl, and two other solid veterans in Jacob Bell and Jason Brown. Saffold especially has already allowed 7 sacks and 11 quarterback pressures in 4 games, despite only allowing 3 sacks all last year as a rookie.

22(20). Oakland Raiders 2-2

The Raiders thought they had a chance to beat Brady’s bunch, but you can’t turn the ball over in the end zone against them. They’re too good an offensive machine. End zone turnovers normally mean 14 point swings. I know Tom Brady wasn’t at his best last week, but the Patriots were smart and took what the defense was giving to them, which was a lot of yards on the ground. The Raiders rank worst in the league against the run and now have to face a healthy Arian Foster in Houston this week. At least they avoided Andre Johnson, who will miss the week with an injury.

21(18). Chicago Bears 2-2

The Bears beat Carolina last week, but they barely beat a poor Carolina team and they didn’t look very good doing it. Someone stole Mike Martz’ headset and called only running plays (31 runs to 17 to passes) and Matt Forte went off for 205 yards and a score on 25 carries. Cutler (9-17 for 102 yards and a pick) will actually have do to something in future weeks which will mean their offensive line will actually have to protect, so let’s not make too much from this win.

20(17). Cleveland Browns 2-2

This might be the most boring team in the league. They don’t suck, but they’re not good and I don’t think they’re even average. Plus, it’s almost like people have forgotten they exist. Nobody ever says anything about them and to tell you the truth, I can’t think of anything to say about them. They’ll continue to go .500 against crappy teams and they’ll probably struggle against good ones. 6 or 7 wins for them.

19(19). Arizona Cardinals 1-3

The Cardinals could easily be 2-2 right now. That non-fumble call on Victor Cruz late in the New York game that set up New York’s winning touchdown was ridiculous. However, at the same time, they sit at 1-3 and 2 games back of San Francisco, who is coming off of a huge win at Philadelphia, so San Francisco leapfrogs them this week.

18(21). San Francisco 49ers 3-1

As weird as it may sound, San Francisco’s win over Philadelphia wasn’t extremely unpredictable. Philadelphia had the worst turnover margin in the league. San Francisco had the best. That’s why Ronnie Brown backwards “passing” a ball after getting stuffed at the line for a fumble was as predictable as a play as weird as that can be. I didn’t think they could actually win on the road on the East Coast, who I knew they could give them a game. Now they have a 2 game lead with Tampa Bay coming to town. If they start 4-1, the NFC West race might as well be over. 4 wins should clinch it right?

17(23). Tennessee Titans 3-1

It’s tough to tell if this team is sneakily good or sneakily bad. They’re definitely sneakily something. They’re 3-1, but their 3 wins are against Denver, Cleveland, and a Baltimore team they caught off guard. However, at the same time, they’re 3-1 and on a 3 game winning streak and playing what appears to be good football. Needless to say, their game at Pittsburgh this week is going to be huge. If they win that one, they’d be 4-1 heading into a game with Houston for early season divisional dominance.

 

16(16). New York Giants 3-1

This team could be easily 2-2 right now. I already explained the Victor Cruz play. They are 3-1, but I’m not picking them to win the NFC East because they have the right combination of a tough 2^nd half schedule and a team that always sucks in the 2^nd half. They could legitimately be 6-1 heading into New England (Seattle, Buffalo, Miami in their next 3), and still miss the playoffs.

15(14). Dallas Cowboys 2-2

Oops. Maybe I shouldn’t have written about how Tony Romo doesn’t deserve the blame for Dallas’ struggles this season last week. Romo gave the game away last week against Detroit, though he didn’t even have the game biggest brain fart. That came when Felix Jones ran out of bounds on 4^th down short of the sticks with less than 30 seconds left. Come on man!

14(15). Washington Redskins 3-1

Washington leapfrogs Dallas because Dallas looked hideous last week, even though Dallas did beat them the week before. I think Washington wins that game in Dallas. Meanwhile, we didn’t learn a lot about Washington last week because they didn’t play an actual team (St. Louis) and now they go on bye. Dallas always chokes. New York has a brutal 2^nd half. I don’t trust Grossman, which means that Philadelphia is still possibly the favorites in this division. They do have the most talent.

13(13). Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2

People disagreed when I put this time out of the playoff race before the season, but the NFL is a league of parity. Their defense is old. Their offensive line can’t run block or pass block. And they don’t do well after a Super Bowl appearance in the Big Ben era. Besides, Super Bowl runner ups typically struggle. If they lose at home this week to Tennessee, it’s time to hit the panic button. So far they’ve been better at home, but they’ve only played one game there and it was against Seattle.

12(12). Atlanta Falcons 2-2

You think they regret spending all that money on Ray Edwards? Edwards doesn’t have a sack this year and Atlanta has a team has 5, 4 of them coming in the opener against Chicago’s miserable line. Quarterbacks have had forever to throw on them, which is part of the reason why Tardvaris Jackson threw for 319 yards last week and almost completed a big comeback. The other part of it is their actual cornerback play. Brent Grimes has regressed after a breakout year last year in which he picked up the slack for Dunta Robinson, their big money signing. Meanwhile, Robinson has gotten worse this year and they have very little depth at the position.

11(11). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

It’s never flashy with the Buccaneers, but Josh Freeman always gets it done in the clutch. Some quarterbacks and teams have just a knack for close dramatic wins. If they can go into San Francisco and get a win this week, easier said than done, they’ll be 4-1 and hosting the Saints, who also figure to be 4-1, week 6 in Tampa Bay in a game that obviously could have major playoff implications. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans last year week 17. Let’s see if they can do that again.

10(10). New York Jets 2-2

I think it’s safe to say this is not the same Jets team as last year. Their run defense and pass rush aren’t nearly as good. They can’t run the ball as well and aside from D’Brickashaw Ferguson, every single one of their offensive linemen has had problems, including the always dependable Nick Mangold, who is out with an injury. More pressure had fallen onto the shoulders of Mark Sanchez, who is proving every year that he’s nothing more than Trent Dilfer. He can piggyback a defense to a championship, but if he has to do it himself, you’re in trouble.

9(8). Philadelphia Eagles 1-3

The NFC East is still wide open the way I say it and Philadelphia does have the most talent. Andy Reid teams are typically slow starters so even if they fall 1-4 in Buffalo this week, I don’t think it’s quite panic time for them. They can still put together a 10-6 season and win this division, but they’re running out of chances. They’re in my top 10 still, but on a very short leash.

8(9). Buffalo Bills 3-1

Buffalo actually moves up after a loss to Cincinnati. They were predictably flat against Cincinnati and other teams did worse than them this week. If they can come back and beat Philadelphia, I see no reason why this isn’t still a legitimate 10-6 or 11-5 team. If they can’t, well they could be in some trouble and closer to proving their first 3 games to be a fluke. The AFC is weak enough with Pittsburgh and New York fading and Tennessee still a mystery for Buffalo to make the playoffs with 9 wins.

7(5). Houston Texans 3-1

The Texans fall after a huge win over the Steelers for two reasons. One, and most obviously, Andre Johnson is going to miss at least a week, maybe 3. Their offense and their whole team is not the same without him. The second reason is getting ignored, they shot themselves in the foot a lot, a characteristic of previous Texan teams. First they blow a lead against New Orleans and then they commit 9 penalties, 8 in the first half, against a Pittsburgh team they shouldn’t blown out the way they were moving the ball. They actually had to lead a 115 yard drive to open the game to score, thanks to penalties.

6(6). Detroit Lions 4-0

With the Packers traveling to Atlanta, a very tough place to win, it’s extremely possible that Detroit could be the league’s last undefeated team, just 3 years after they became the first 0-16 team in NFL history. If anyone knows of a local nuclear fallout shelter, please tell me because I have a very bad feeling about the fate of the world in the next week. We might be in trouble.

5(4). Baltimore Ravens 3-1

The Ravens slide a spot after a convincing Sunday Night win over the Jets because Joe Flacco didn’t play well in the game. In fact, you could say he was complete crap. He was 10 of 31 for 163 yards and a pick, but still won by 17 because Mark Sanchez was worse and Flacco’s defense and running game bailed him out. They won’t have a record number of return touchdowns every week, so the Ravens should at least be a little concerned about Flacco.

4(7). San Diego Chargers 3-1

I have a feeling I’m going to be changing the order of San Diego, Baltimore, and Houston every week. With Baltimore and Houston slipping for reasons mentioned before, San Diego moves up. San Diego hasn’t fixed their early season struggles at all, but the schedule makers have gifted them with a ridiculous easily first half schedule. Aside from New England, they’ve played Minnesota (0-4), Kansas City (1-3), and Miami (0-4), and now they have Denver (1-3), a bye, New York (2-2), and Kansas City (1-3). They could end up 5-2 without breaking a sweat and if they can turn it on the 2^nd half like they normally do, this is a 12-4 team with upside heading into the playoffs. Nate Kaeding is on IR so he can’t ruin it all for them this year.

3(3). New Orleans Saints 3-1

Nothing new here. New Orleans took care of business in Jacksonville and will take care of business this week in Carolina. Their real test is Tampa Bay week 6. If they can come out of Tampa Bay with a win, well, I guess I can’t really move them up, but they’ll stabilize their hold on the #3 spot, where they’ve been all season.

2(2). Green Bay Packers 4-0

Same old, same old. In a league where “sportsmanship” seems to mean pulling your starters in a blowout, as if to say, we’ll have mercy on you, I was glad to see Green Bay run up the score against Denver. If you can do it, do it. If you lose by 25+, don’t complain about it. You suck. You deserve. The NFL is not a league of mercy.

1(1). New England Patriots 3-1

I’m keeping the Patriots here until they prove they aren’t the best team in the league. I think they can beat Green Bay on a neutral field in the Super Bowl, and no, one loss to Buffalo didn’t change my mind. Green Bay is going to lose to someone too, at some point. Green Bay actually faces a losable test this week in Atlanta. 

 

 

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 8-8 (+220/+4 units)

Overall picks: 42-22 (.656)

ATS Picks: 33-29-2 (+1300/+17 units)

Survivor picks: 4-0 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB)

Upset picks: 5-9 (-160)

I didn’t go +27 units for the week like week 3 or anything, but it was my 2^nd straight week making money and allowed me to add to my total. I went 2-1 with my 3 highest picks, including nailing my 5 unit pick. I split my 4 3 unit picks, so really that 5 unit pick (New England) was the difference. I didn’t particularly post a high record, 8-8, but I did enough to finish up 4 units for the week, on the strong of my 5 unit pick. I also finished 11-5 straight up for the week, bringing my winning percentage for the season to .656. I split a pair of small upset picks, as well, though I do have some bigger upset picks for this week.

Buffalo Bills 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick (+120)

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-125) 4 units (+400)

Buffalo can’t seem to get any respect from Vegas. Meanwhile, Philadelphia can’t seem to lose it. Well, maybe it’s not Vegas not giving them Bills respect or disrespecting the Eagles, but rather the public doing either of those things and Vegas capitalizing. The money is on Philadelphia this week, but it’s close.

Buffalo had some respect last week as road favorites in Cincinnati, but they were flat after beating the Patriots for the first time in 16 tries the week before as big home underdogs. Now they come back home and are underdogs to the 1-3 Eagles.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have been 9 point home favorites in each of the past two weeks, first to the Giants after an ugly win on Monday Night Football, then to the 49ers. They lost both of those games straight up and now they’re 3 point favorites in Buffalo. What that’s saying is that this line would be -9 in Philadelphia, basically saying Buffalo no better or even worse than San Francisco or the Giants (remember, they didn’t look good coming into that game). We’re getting tremendous line value here.

Besides, road favorites who lose straight up are 40-28 ATS as dogs the next week since 2002. They were good enough to be road favorites a week ago, so they’re obviously a good team, but Vegas still has them as underdogs. There’s value in betting on teams in this situation, especially when the opponent is coming off a loss as a home favorite (5-1 ATS).

Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be caught looking forward to Washington next week. Favorites are 43-67 ATS the week before being divisional dogs since 2008. Will Philadelphia be a dog in Washington next week? Maybe, especially if they lose here and head into 3-1 Washington at 1-4. Either way, you know that game against Washington is going to be huge for Philadelphia, so this game might not mean as much to them as it does to Buffalo, who has something to prove once more after losing to the lowly Bengals and returning home to be home dogs to a 1-3 “dream team.”

The reasons this isn’t a 5 unit pick are 2. One, this feels like a trap line. Sometimes when something seems too good to be true, it normally is. Philadelphia might feel they need this win to safe their season at 1-3 and Andy Reid is 14-9 ATS off a loss as a home favorite since he took over in 1999 (this trend failed last week). I still like Buffalo, but only for 4 units.

Two final notes: first, the Trent Cole and Jason Peters injuries are going to be huge. Neither are expected to play in this one. Both are huge parts of this team, but the line doesn’t seem to take that into account. Second, Philadelphia has the worst turnover ratio in the NFC, 2nd worst in the league (-6) behind Pittsburgh. Last week they played San Francisco, who is tied with Detroit for the best turnover ratio in the league (+8). This week they play Buffalo, who is first in the AFC, 2nd in the league with a -7 turnover ratio. Turnovers swing games and they aren’t as completely unpredictable as people would have you believe.

New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6 (-115) 2 units (-230)

We should just start calling Cam Newton the king of backdoor covers. As Bill Simmons says, there’s no one he’d rather have at quarterback down two scores needing a “meaningless” score for a backdoor cover. Cammy Cam came through last week as 7 point underdogs in Chicago. Can he come through again here at home as 6 point home dogs against New Orleans? Maybe, but there are some trends working against him.

New Orleans is in their 2^nd straight road game. Teams in their 2^nd straight road game are 141-100 ATS since 2008, 35-19 ATS after covering in their first road game. Meanwhile, Carolina is home divisional dogs, a situation teams are actually just 50-62 ATS in since 2008. Breaking that down further, teams are 20-32 ATS as home divisional dogs the week before being road divisional dogs (Atlanta next week). They might be more focused on having to go to Atlanta than on the Saints, though I’m not 100% sure I agree that will be in play here.

I’m much more focused on the Saints being in their 2^nd straight road game after covering as favorites in their first. This is a good New Orleans team that can beat up on Carolina’s poor secondary. Newton will have some yardage time scores, but I still like New Orleans’ chances to cover here given that the spread isn’t 7+. You need to worry more about someone like Newton when the line is 7+.

Oakland Raiders 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+200)

Pick against spread: Oakland +6 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Andre Johnson hasn’t been ruled out for this game, but he’s very unlikely to go. That’s huge, obviously. I don’t know that this line properly reflects that. Besides, Houston could be in a flat situation. They just beat Pittsburgh at home last week and head to Baltimore next week. In the Gary Kubiak era, the Texans are 12-19 ATS off of a win and, for whatever reason, teams are a mere 17-35 ATS off of a win against Pittsburgh since 2002. For the record, that’s the worst winning percentage after beating any team in that span.

As for that upcoming Baltimore game, favorites before a game in which they will be a dog of 3+ in are 106-150 ATS since 2008. The logic is simple. You have an opponent who is as good or better than you coming up. You won’t be as focused for an inferior opponent, especially one who is coming off of a loss (56-84 ATS). Houston heads to Baltimore next week. Vegas had Houston at -4 at home over Pittsburgh, which says they’re 1 point better than Pittsburgh. Since Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, Houston is likely going to be at least +3 at Baltimore next week.

Besides, Houston doesn’t seem to have stopped shooting themselves in the foot. They blew a lead against New Orleans week 3 and should have blown out Pittsburgh last week. They had 9 penalties, 8 in the first half, and dominated the first half time of possession battle 21-9. Pittsburgh didn’t even get the ball until 4 minutes left in the first because Houston ran a 115 yard drive (thanks to penalties) to score on the opening possession of the game. I don’t trust a team that constantly shoots themselves in the foot when the trends are all going against them, especially without their best player.

Update: I’m putting a unit on Oakland to pull off the upset +200, in the wake of Al Davis’ death. I think they have a huge game in the memory of their owner and that pushes a close game in their favor against a Houston team that struggles in close games historically. 

Indianapolis Colts 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -1.5 (-120) 2 units (-240)

Can you win MVP if you don’t play a down? Peyton Manning has led the Colts to 10+ wins every year since 2002, and 12+ in every season since 2002 except last year. He gets hurt and now the Colts are 0-4. However, they have their best chance to win a game here against Kansas City. Kansas City is 1-3, with one home win against the 0-4 Vikings.

I think people are overreacting to the Colts. They’re not going to be a 1 or 2 win team like some are predicting. They have offensive playmakers and the best 4-3 bookend defensive ends in the league. They had a tough first 4 games with Houston (3-1), Cleveland (2-2), Pittsburgh (2-2), Tampa Bay (3-1). They hung within a touchdown of Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay and Curtis Painter looked decent against Tampa Bay despite making his first career start on the road on Monday Night. He’ll be even better with another week here at home against the lowly Chiefs.

This line says the Chiefs are 1.5 points better than the Colts. I disagree with this. Besides, 0-4 teams are 23-11 ATS since 2000. Teams who are 0-4 or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002. The Colts are a veteran squad playing for pride here. They should be able to eke out a win here. Curtis Painter is getting better at quarterback and the Colts are devalued because of their record, despite a tough schedule.

Besides, the Chiefs aren’t a good road team. Winning at home is one thing, but I don’t think they can get a road win here. Including last week, this team is 8-2 straight up at home in the regular season, whereas they are 3-7 straight up on the home in the regular season. This line is small enough for something like that to matter.

 

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 Upset Pick (+120) 5 units (+600)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +1.5 (+100) 0 units

This is exactly the type of situation Jacksonville struggles in, especially lately. Since 2008, Jacksonville is 10-23 ATS against non-divisional opponents and 4-11 ATS as home favorites. They’re also 4-9 ATS as favorites before a game in which they will be underdogs in that same time span, since 2008. They head to Pittsburgh next week so they’ll be more focused on that than lowly Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 18-11 ATS as an underdog off a win since Marvin Lewis took over, including 9-2 in that situation in their last 11 instances (since 2008). As an underdog in general, Cincinnati is 20-13 ATS since 2008.

Besides, I don’t really agree with this line. This line says these two teams are essentially equal. I think Cincinnati is the better team right now and I’m very happy to bet against a terrible team like Jacksonville as favorites, regardless of how bad they’ve been in this situation since 2008. As long as Cincinnati is not flat off of that comeback win against Buffalo (road dogs coming off a 1-3 point home win as home dogs are 11-26 ATS since 2002), Cincinnati should be fine here.

I’m not ignoring that trend, but I think the other trends are more powerful and more specific. While the league as a whole struggles in a situation like this, there are many situations Cincinnati is in now that they specifically have done well in under Marvin Lewis, as well as many situations Jacksonville is in now that they typically struggle in. Besides, the Bengals did cover against in this exact situation in 2009 against Baltimore. And for the record, the Bengals are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 after a 3 point or fewer win.

I’m doing something different here this week. I like Cincinnati to win straight up so instead of putting 4 units on the spread line +1.5 (+100) and one straight up on the money line +120, I’m just going to put 5 on the money line. The only way this can backfire is if Jacksonville wins by 1, but that doesn’t happen very often. Roughly 4% of games are decided by 1 point, so sticking with straight probability, the odds that Jacksonville wins by 1 here are 2% (and 2% than Cincinnati does the same). I’m not paying the extra 20 dollars (per 100) for insurance against a something that happens about 1 time in 50. For the future, I will do this when betting the underdog on a line of 1.5 or less.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick (+120) 2 units (-200)

Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5 (+105) 0 units

This was a tough one for me. On one hand, Minnesota is 0-4 and playing for pride. 0-4 teams are 23-11 ATS since 2000, even more surprisingly, they are 10-5 as favorites in that stretch. On the other hand, they could be looking forward to Chicago more than they are focused for this game. Favorites before a game in which they are going to be underdogs are 43-67 ATS since 2008. When they are going to be underdogs of 3+, they are 36-56 ATS and when they are going to be underdogs of 7+, they are 9-19 ATS. Minnesota goes to Chicago next week and will be at least +3, probably +7 in that game.

So what’s the tiebreaker here? The line. Is Arizona as bad as or almost as bad as Minnesota (-1.5 line with -125)? I don’t agree with that. Minnesota is 0-4 and has blown big leads in 3 of their first 4 games. The Cardinals are 1-3, but their 3 losses were in Seattle (tough place to play), on the East Coast at 1 PM ET at the now 3-1 Redskins, and a close loss to the now 3-1 Giants. Neither team is very good, but the Cardinals are better so I’m taking them. Like the Cincinnati/Jacksonville game, I’m putting two units on the money line instead of one on the money line +120 and one on the spread 1.5 +105. I don’t need protection from a 1 point Minnesota win (2% likelihood).

New York Giants 34 Seattle Seahawks 13 Survivor Pick (4-0, NE, PIT, BAL, GB)

Pick against spread: NY Giants -9.5 (-110) 4 units (-440)

I normally don’t like betting heavily on double digit favorites (9.5 is close), but there’s just too many trends to ignore this week. Seattle absolutely sucks on the road. They’re 13-32 ATS since 2006 on the road, 1-7 ATS as 10+ point underdogs (again 9.5 is close). They’ve lost all 8 of those games, by an average of 20.8 points per game. There’s no way I’m betting on Seattle on the road, especially on the East Coast at a 1 PM ET start.

Besides, I think we’re getting excellent line value here. Seattle was double touchdown underdogs in Pittsburgh week 2. Pittsburgh was coming off a 28 point loss against Baltimore. Are the Giants really 5 points worse than the Steelers were week 2? The Giants are 3-1 right now and are continuing their early season dominance. They’ve always played well in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin. In fact, they’re 36-19 ATS in weeks 1-8 since Coughlin took over in 2004. I don’t think the Giants should have any problem beating the Seahawks by 10+. They’re also my survivor pick of the week (I’ve used New England at Miami, Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, Baltimore at St. Louis, and Green Bay vs. Denver already).

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Tennessee Titans 19

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

This was the toughest one for me. The Steelers are playing bad football right now and I had them overrated coming into the season, but it seems like the oddsmakers are catching up. I was expecting them to be something like -7 here at home for Tennessee, but they are -4. I don’t think there’s any value with that anymore because I don’t know how good Tennessee is.

Tennessee is on a 3 game winning streak, but those 3 wins were a flat Baltimore off a win against Pittsburgh, Denver who could have beaten them had they kicked a chip field goal instead of gone for it on 4th and goal with the lead, and Cleveland. Chris Johnson is not running well and without Kenny Britt, Hasselbeck doesn’t have a lot to work with in the receiving corps. Their defense doesn’t generate a consistent pass rush either so Big Ben won’t be under fire quite as much this week.

I still want to take Tennessee, but only for a unit. There’s no value in this line and Pittsburgh has looked really good in their only home game, albeit against Seattle. I just don’t want to bet Pittsburgh as favorites of more than 3 against a team in Tennessee that might actually be pretty good. Two trends, home favorites coming off of a loss as road underdogs are 63-75 ATS since 2008. Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS in this situation under Mike Tomlin.

Secondly, Tennessee is in their 2nd straight road game as dogs after covering in the first. Teams in this situation are 98-69 ATS since 2002. They’re also going in their bye week. Teams in general do better going into their bye week, but teams in their 2nd straight road game as dogs after covering in the first are 9-4 ATS heading into a bye.

Also, injuries could be a factor here. Big Ben will probably play banged up. James Harrison is out with a broken face. Rashard Mendenhall has a hamstring problem and will probably be a game time decision and he’d be limited if he could play. However, I worry about a proud, well coached veteran team in Pittsburgh in a game that they might see as must win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 San Francisco 49ers 17 Upset Pick (+115) 2 units (-200)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (+100) 0 units

There are conflicting situations here. On one hand, Tampa Bay has New Orleans next week, while San Francisco is coming off of a close (1-3) road win as an underdog. Both situations are situations teams would be flat in as favorites, so before the line was released I just decided I was going to take the points. In this case, that’s Tampa Bay.

San Francisco won as 9 point underdogs on the road last week by 3 or fewer. That’s a tough spot returning home to be favorites. Teams are just 23-40 ATS in this situation since 2002, 21-33 ATS when they were dogs are 3+, and 4-9 ATS as dogs of 7+, which San Francisco was. This even applies when the team is favorites of less than 3. Teams in this situation are 5-8 ATS off of a close win as a road favorite. For that reason, I’m taking Tampa Bay.

I also like we’re getting points with Tampa Bay on the road. Tampa Bay was 6-2 on the road last year, as opposed to 4-4 at home, and they’re already 1-0 on the road this year (albeit in Minnesota). Besides, Tampa Bay is a team who beats up on bad teams. They only have 1 loss to a team with a .500 record or worse in the past 2 seasons. San Francisco is 3-1 now, but they could finish this season 8-8 or so, so this is sort of in play. On top of this, this line says these two are about equal, which I don’t agree with, and that’s not taking into account how good Tampa Bay is on the road.

The reason I’m not making a big play on Tampa Bay is because they play New Orleans next week. Favorites are 43-67 ATS since 2008 the week before they are divisional dogs. I know Tampa Bay is not favorites here, but that New Orleans game is going to be on their mind. Road dogs are 46-46 ATS since 2008 in that situation, which isn’t a trend, but road dogs of 3+ are 43-40 ATS in that situation, which means road dogs of less than 3 are 3-6 ATS before a game in which they are divisional dogs.

Trace this back to 2002, road dogs in general are 122-159 in this situation, but 112-139 when they’re dogs of 3+, which means road dogs of less than 3 are 10-20 ATS before a divisional games since 2002. This makes sense. Road dogs of less than 3 are considered the better team by Vegas. Tampa Bay probably sees San Francisco as an inferior opponent and won’t give 100% before New Orleans next week.

Also, assuming you can do math, you can probably see that betting against teams (favorites or dogs) before games in which they are going to be divisional dogs is pretty lucrative. Since 2008, teams are 123-151 ATS in this situation and 349-451 ATS since 2002. Basically, there’s a lot of conflicting stuff. Both teams could be down this week, but I’m going with Tampa Bay because they’re a good road team and I think the better team.

Like with Arizona/Minnesota and Jacksonville/Cincinnati, I’m betting two on the money line here instead of betting one on the money line and one on the spread. I’ve already explained my logic here. 

San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5 (+100) 1 unit (+100)

This was a tough one. Both teams are heading into their byes and teams tend to do better when they’re heading into their bye. Favorites are 91-73 ATS going into their bye since 2002. Underdogs are 92-80 in that situation in that same time period. Teams tend to be more focused heading into their bye than most, but that nullifies here because both teams are heading into their bye.

I was honestly hoping San Diego would be favorites of 7+ this week. Favorites of 7+ are a whopping 41-15 ATS heading into a bye in the regular season. Good teams are focused heading into their bye and almost always cover. However, I guess Vegas didn’t agree that San Diego should have been 7 point favorites here and I can understand why. San Diego just isn’t that good early in the season.

I’m putting a small bet on San Diego for three reasons. One, favorites are slightly better than underdogs heading into byes. Two, divisional home dogs are 50-62 ATS since 2008. That’s not the strongest trend, but this isn’t a big bet either. Finally, Denver’s a mess right now. San Diego can definitely do something similar to what Green Bay did last week to Denver if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Even if they do, I can’t Denver keeping this within 4.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: New England -9 (-110) 1 unit (+0)

Jets. Pats. Again. If history is any indication, the Patriots are going to win here. Since Rex Ryan took over the Jets in 2009, the Jets are 2-3 straight up against the Patriots, but neither team has won 2 in a row in that stretch. These two coaches are the best in the business in revenge type situations. Both coaches make excellent adjustments, learn from their mistakes well, and are especially great at motivating their teams in revenge games. New York won in the playoffs last year. Now it’s New England’s turn.

Besides, no one has beaten the Patriots at home in the regular season in over 3 years. I know the Jets did it in the playoffs last year, but this is the regular season now and I don’t think this is the same Jets team. The Patriots have scored 30+ in 12 straight regular season games. I don’t think the Jets can score that many to keep up with them, especially not with how their offense looked last week. The Jets did hold them to 21 in the playoffs last year, in a 28-21 win, but that was the combination of luck and the right personnel. That doesn’t happen very often.

Well the Jets get the same breaks they did against New England last year? Maybe, but the truth is, it’s not the same personnel. This Jets defense isn’t as good as it was last year. I don’t think they can hold New England under 30, especially since Belichick’s the one with the revenge factor here now.

The line here is 9. Can the Jets keep this a 31-24 or 34-27 game? I think they can. The Patriots defense isn’t great so Sanchez won’t be nearly as bad as he was last week, but do I really want to bet on that after what he did last week? Nick Mangold either won’t play or won’t be 100% here, which really hurts the Jets as they go up against Vince Wilfork.

Besides, in addition to neither team having ever won back-to-back in this series since Rex Ryan took over, neither team has covered back-to-back in this series since Rex Ryan took over. Lastly, the Patriots are still going to be motivated after that loss to Buffalo. Tom Brady doesn’t forget very easily. The smart money is on this being a blowout, but I’m only putting 1 unit on it.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Green Bay Packers 28 Upset Pick (+220)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +6 (-110) 4 units (-440)

I guess you could say this is the rubber match. After the Falcons won by a field goal over the Packers in Atlanta in the regular season last year, the Packers responded with a 48-21 upset win over the Falcons in Atlanta in the NFC Semis, en route to their Super Bowl win. The Falcons didn’t look great on the road in the past two weeks, losing in Tampa Bay and then barely winning by 2 over the lowly Seahawks last week. However, now they’re back home, where Matt Ryan is 17-8 ATS in his career (4-0 as a home dog).

I think Atlanta is being undervalued here. They haven’t looked good in their past 2, but they never look good on the road. They’re a mere 2-2 this season and barely beat Seattle, but they’ve only played one home game and they won it in a similar situation, home dogs against Eagles. As long as we’re getting more than a field goal with Atlanta, I’m taking it. Matt Ryan has covered in 4 of his last 5 instances as a dog. Besides, this line says Green Bay is 9 points better than Atlanta. I don’t agree with that, especially considering that Atlanta should get more than 3 points for playing in Atlanta.

Besides, since 2008, the Falcons are 17-8 ATS off of a road game, 9-2 ATS when they failed to cover. In general, they are 15-4 ATS off a game in which they didn’t cover. I was going to put 5 units on Atlanta here, until I thought twice and decided, maybe betting 5 units against Aaron Rodgers isn’t a good idea. 4 units it is. I really have a good feeling about Atlanta here. This is a big revenge game for them and this game means more to them than the Green Bay as the 2-2 Falcons are fighting for respect and potentially for their season.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against spread: Detroit -6 (-105) 2 units

This is Detroit’s first Monday Night game in over a decade. This game is huge for the team. You know they circled this one on the schedule before the season. They’re going to be giving 110% to win here. There’s a small trend that goes along with this. Monday Night home favorites are 32-25 ATS since 2002 off of a win. That’s not a strong trend or anything, but common sense tells you that Detroit is going to be giving 110% this week.

Chicago should be too. Green Bay and Detroit are at 4-0. They’re at 2-2. If they lose here, they could be as many as 3 games back of 2 different teams. They’re season could be on the line here. However, I’m taking the favorites for a small bet. I really like Detroit to get to 5-0 and cover here on MNF. Besides, I love getting Detroit’s defensive line against Chicago’s miserable offensive line.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Atlanta +6, Cincinnati +2.5, Buffalo +2.5, NY Giants -9.5, Oakland +5.5 

 

 

32(32). Seattle Seahawks 1-2

Seattle stays in the cellar despite a win. The magic of Qwest field was going to win them a few games this year, especially since they play in a division where the teams are 7-30 straight up on the road in the past 2 years. However, I still can’t see them winning a non-divisional game or a road game within the division so I can’t see any more than 2 or 3 wins for them. They still lead the Andrew Luck sweepstakes in my book.

31(31). Kansas City Chiefs 0-3

In the official book, the Chiefs seem to lead the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. They are one of 5 0-3 teams and are probably the worst of the bunch. They gave the early season Chargers a scare last week after Philip Rivers nearly handed them the game, but they held on for the loss, unlike Seattle. Their next test in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is a pair of 0-3 teams who also almost won last week, Minnesota and Indianapolis.

30(30). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-2

The Jaguars do have a win, but they’re also averaging 9.7 points per game and have had 3 different starting quarterbacks this month, if you include Garrard, who everyone thought was the starter heading into the season. Their defense has kept them in some games, but there’s still not a lot of talent there. Remember, they’ve played Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Sanchez, and Cam Newton in a monsoon. Drew Brees will be a bit of a different test for them this week.

29(28). Cincinnati Bengals 1-2

And here I thought the Bengals could actually win a surprising amount of games this season with their defense, their running game, their weak schedule, and Andy Dalton game managing things. Their defense looked great last week, but that might have just been San Francisco. However, their offense scored a mere 8 points last week, 2 off a safety and 3 off a field goal after a Frank Gore fumble.

28(26). Miami Dolphins 0-3

The only thing Miami has to look forward to is that Tony Sparano could be fired soon. I think Sparano is one of the early contenders to get fired first this season along with Todd Haley and Jack Del Rio. There was no way this season was going to go well for the Dolphins. Anytime you try and fail to replace both your starting quarterback and your head coach in the offseason, you have a team full of guys questioning the leadership. Sparano’s replacement will find a new starting quarterback this offseason and the team will start over, trying to find a suitable replacement for Dan Marino, who retired all those years ago.

27(27). Denver Broncos 1-2

What was John Fox thinking going for it on 4^th and goal with the lead? This is normally one of the most conservative men in the league, to a fault at times. He refuses to play rookies and he loves running the ball more than anything, but he goes for it on 4^th down with the lead when they’ve struggled to convert short yardage plays all season? That could be the difference between this team being 1-2 and 2-1. Not like it matters. This team is going 5-11 either way. Might as well play Tebow. I say it every week. Why not play him?

26(25). Carolina Panthers 1-2

After throwing for 422 yards and 432 yards in two straight losses to open his career, Cam Newton decided that if this team was going to win, he was going to have to play worse. That’s exactly what he did, throwing for 158 yards in a monsoon win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Newton becomes the 6^th quarterback drafted in the first round to win week 3 in the last 6 instances. Maybe there’s something to this whole, 3^rd time’s the charm thing.

25(23). Minnesota Vikings 0-3

Someone should tell Donovan McNabb games are 2 halves long. It’s unclear if he understands that part of the rulebook. I mean he doesn’t know games can end in ties. Maybe he doesn’t know how many quarters a game is. The Vikings have blown leads to teams with winning records in each of their first 3 games, though I guess we can’t entirely blame McNabb. Head Coach Leslie Frazier seems to subscribe to the Todd Haley philosophy that you shouldn’t use your best players. Percy Harvin has been moved out of the starting lineup and into the slot permanently, playing only about 50-60% of the team’s offensive snaps, while 100 million dollar man Adrian Peterson got just 8 2^nd half carries in a game the Vikings were leading at halftime last week. The Vikings better hope a trip to Kansas City is just what the doctor ordered this week.

24(20). St. Louis Rams 0-3

Bill Simmons thinks St. Louis can start 0-7 and win this division anyway. I prefer to subscribe to the notion that Arizona or San Francisco wins it with 6, but I’m not in complete disagreement with Simmons. St. Louis faces Washington, Green Bay, Dallas, and New Orleans in their next 4 before the schedule gets easier. In the end, I think this miserable bunch gets a small win this week against Washington and finishes in 3^rd at 5-11.

23(21). Tennessee Titans 2-1

I made a prop bet that Kenny Britt would have more than 5 touchdowns this year (5!!!). Britt had 3 through 2 games and I felt I was in the clear here until Britt tore both his ACL and his MCL last week, ending his season. Considering Chris Johnson decided to stink it up this season, this team might be now completely lacking any offensive playmakers. Speaking of Johnson he has 98 yards on 46 carries this year and was outgained by the punter last week, who had one carry for 21 yards. In other news, Titans punter Brett Kern is now holding out, demanding top playmaker type money.

22(24). Indianapolis Colts 0-3

Curtis Painter entered the game for the Colts with a career quarterback rating of 9.8 (I don’t know what that is on ESPN’s fancy schmancy QBR, but I’m guessing it’s about a -5) last week when Kerry Collins went down. The commentators said he was prepared because, even though he didn’t take any reps in practice, he had been taking mental reps. This makes sense because he came out and threw an inaccurate pass to a wide open wide receiver who would have had a touchdown that would have won them the game. But that’s okay because that’s a mental completion and in Curtis Painter’s head they won that game.

21(29). San Francisco 49ers 2-1

Why do I get the feeling the 49ers could win this division with 6 wins? Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle all seem pretty terrible and the 49ers might have the right combination of an opportunistic defense and an easy schedule to win the 6 or 7 games it looks like it’s going to take to win this division. I have Arizona ahead of them for now because Arizona has a very easily schedule as well, but that could change soon.

20(22). Oakland Raiders 2-1

The Raiders aren’t as good as their 2-1 record, with one loss to a 3-0 team, would suggest. They won an ugly game against the lowly Broncos. They blew a big lead in Buffalo. Last week, they caught the Jets napping and looking forward to Baltimore next week. The Patriots should put the Raiders in their place this week after a loss to Buffalo last week. New England is deadly off of a loss. Once they get blown out, maybe people will stop talking about how much this team has improved after losing 3 of their best players. San Diego is still better than them in the division.

19(16). Arizona Cardinals 1-2

Arizona had 4 backs heading out of the lockout. Tim Hightower is gone, traded to Washington. Ryan Williams is done for the season. Chris Wells and Laron Stephens-Howling missed last week so they went with Alfonso Smith as their starting running back. I had no idea who that was so I googled him. My computer laughed at me. Even more embarrassing, Smith started over Chester Taylor, who had a mere 6 carries last week. That’s a good sign you should hang ‘em up Chester.

18(14). Chicago Bears 1-2

Jay Cutler wasn’t sacked as many times as he could have been against Green Bay, but the Bears didn’t look very good in a home loss to the Packers, rushing for 13 yards on 12 carries (2 yards on 9 carries by Forte). The Packers didn’t focus on getting to Cutler, instead focusing on neutralizing Forte’s impact on the game and it worked. Forte is their only offensive playmaker and their offensive line can’t block a plastic bag. That’s not a good recipe for success in the NFL.

17(17). Cleveland Browns 2-1

The Browns have proven they can beat bad teams. With Tennessee, Oakland, Seattle, and San Francisco in their next 4, this team could somehow be sitting up 5-2 heading into Houston week 9. The schedule gets tougher from there. However, if they lose to those bad teams like they did week 1 to Cincinnati, well that’s just embarrassing.

 

16(19). New York Giants 2-1

Continuing their history of first half success, the Giants put together an injury plagued win over the Eagles week 3. Their 2^nd half (San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, Washington, the Jets, and Dallas) still has to be scary, but I’m very impressed with their ability to bounce back after week 1 and after all of their injuries and personnel losses in the offseason.

15(18). Washington Redskins 2-1

I was sure how to rank the 3 2-1 teams in the NFC East (I still like Philadelphia to win it). However, Dallas beat Washington who beat New York so they line up in order here. The Redskins have to be hoping that Grossman isn’t regressing. They have the Rams this week and if he is regressing, they could easily be caught off guard by a Rams team playing for their dignity after getting blown out at home last week.

14(13). Dallas Cowboys 2-1

Can we lay off Tony Romo? He throws for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets in a game that his special teams blew. He leads a comeback with a cracked rib against San Francisco and then he beats Washington despite 4 botched snaps by Phil Costa and Kevin Ogletree consistently running the wrong route. The Cowboys better get their act together during the week because the 3-0 Lions are coming to town with all of their pass rushers aiming for Romo’s ribs and 4-0.

13(11). Pittsburgh Steelers 2-1

With 3 turnovers against Indianapolis, the Steelers now have 10 turnovers on the season despite playing Seattle and Indianapolis in 2 of their 3 games. They had to put injured players back into the game on the offensive line against Indy and would have lost had Curtis Painter not missed a wide open man for a touchdown. Now they have to go into Houston. I’m feeling pretty confident about leaving Pittsburgh out of the playoffs in my preseason picks.

12(10). Atlanta Falcons 1-2

This team could easily be 0-3 if Michael Vick doesn’t get hurt week 3. A trip to Seattle should be just what the doctor ordered, but remember Seattle is good at home and Atlanta has had its struggles on the road. A trip to Seattle should bring them back to 2-2, but they have to be worried. Tampa Bay looks better than them and it looks like Detroit and Green Bay are both making the playoffs out of the North. That doesn’t leave a spot for them.

11(12). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

The Buccaneers got a huge win last week and have lost just 1 game, to Detroit, by 7. Last week’s win could easily be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs in a few months. 6 quarters ago, they looked like a classic sophomore slump team, now they look like a team that is just getting better as they mature. Now they get a huge Monday Night Game against Indianapolis. Hopefully their fans actually show up.

10(9). New York Jets 2-1

The Jets got embarrassed in Oakland in a game that just meant more to Oakland than it did to them. Now is the real test, a trip to Baltimore followed by a trip to New England. They lost to both Baltimore and New England last year so you know Rex Ryan is trying to sell those games to his players as revenge games. If he can do that like he did before their playoff games against the Colts and against the Pats last year, the Jets could end up at 4-1 with 2 impressive wins. This is clearly a huge stretch for a team that hasn’t beaten anyone of note yet.

9(15). Buffalo Bills 3-0

The Bills are for real. Anyone we doesn’t think so just needs to ask Tom Brady. Can they stay in first in the AFC East? I don’t think so. Do I have them making the playoffs now? You bet. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s scheme and Fred Jackson just keeps getting better. I’m interested to see how they handle the post huge win situation this week against Cincinnati. Do they still have enough of a chip on their schedule to get to 4-0 convincingly against the lowly Bengals? The last question this team has to answer is how do they handle success?

8(4). Philadelphia Eagles 1-2

The Eagles are a mess right now, but they can get things together. Michael Vick’s hand isn’t broken and he should play this week against San Francisco and they’re still the most talented team in the division. However, there’s not a lot of room for error now at 1-2, a game back of 3 solid teams in New York, Dallas, and Washington.

7(6). San Diego Chargers 2-1

The Chargers are rumored to be pressing so much to win in the early part of the season that they’re playing badly. Chargers fans have to be concerned after barely beating Kansas City and Minnesota in San Diego. What if this team can’t get it together in the 2^nd half again? The good news, the schedule doesn’t get any tougher for them in the coming weeks. They have Miami this week (0-3), and then Denver (1-2) and following a tough game against the Jets, they get the Chiefs (0-3) again.

6(8). Detroit Lions 3-0

The Lions are one of three teams still undefeated, a surprise 3-0 team along with Buffalo. The bad news, division rival Green Bay is the 3^rd 3-0 team. They’re not getting this division unless they can beat Green Bay head to head twice and I don’t think they can do that. However, they could definitely end up a 11 or 12 team wild card and not a team you want to face in the playoffs.

5(5). Houston Texans 2-1

Houston did what they do best last week, they blew a big lead. However, New Orleans is a quality opponent and they still played well. They have the ability to get things together heading forward. However, they have to make sure that blowing leads doesn’t become a trend for them again this year. Their 2-0 start before the New Orleans game should mean nothing to them. They started 2-0 last year and ended 6-10. Besides, they haven’t beaten anyone of note yet. Needless to say, their home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week is going to be huge.

4(7). Baltimore Ravens 2-1

You think the Ravens didn’t like losing to the Titans? Sam Bradford and company didn’t know what hit them last week and the Ravens appear to have found their #2 receiver, rookie Torrey Smith, who now has more touchdown catches (3) already than former Maryland teammate and 7^th overall pick Darrius Heyward Bey has in his whole career (2). Smith did that in 1 quarter against St. Louis.

3(3). New Orleans Saints 2-1

The Saints stay right where they were last week after a hard fought home win against a quality Houston team. This team is an offensive machine, scoring 30+ in 9 of their last 12, including the playoffs. Now they face a Jacksonville team this week that is averaging less than 10 per game this season. Can we just make them 3-1 already?

2(2). Green Bay Packers 3-0

The Packers have yet to play a truly dominating game yet. It’s safe to say I wouldn’t want to be Denver heading in Green Bay next week. Aaron Rodgers is still playing out of his mind and the defense is going to get it together, even with a nasty neck injury to Nick Collins. Rodgers also has all the weapons in the world, led by Greg Jennings and the always amazing (when healthy) Jermichael Finley.

1(1). New England Patriots 2-1

This may be controversial, but I picked them at the beginning of the season and I’m leaving them here. No one’s perfect. They were going to lose a game at some point. The Packers were my preseason pick last year. They lost week 3. I didn’t move them. Look how that turned out. The Patriots still have the talent to get it done and they might not lose for a while if you look at their schedule and how they normally respond after a loss.

 

 

Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 13-3 (+2670/+27 units)

Overall picks: 31-17 (.646)

ATS Picks: 25-21-2 (+1080/+15 units)

Lock picks: 3-0

Upset picks: 4-8 (-165)

What a week! I’ve never had a week like that. I dropped 3 games all week, 2 2 unit games and a 3 unit game. I won my other 34 units to put me up 27 units and $2670 ($2635 if you include money line upset picks) for the week. If you stuck with me through 2 down weeks to start the season, I’m really happy I could come through for you. I wish I could guarantee that every week, but I can’t. No one can. But I’m still really happy to be out of the red in a big way. Let’s make it two in a row. Here we go.

Chicago Bears 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-120) 3 units (+300)

The Chicago Bears have looked like crap these past few weeks. Week 2, they allowed 6 sacks and countless quarterback pressures to the Saints without Will Smith. Then they average less than a yard per carry against Green Bay, who focused more on stuffing the run than getting after Cutler and still managed to pressure Cutler consistently. That loss to the Packers last week had to hurt. That’s now 4 times in just over a year they’ve been outplayed by the Packers, who are clearly the team to beat in this division.

Now the Bears could feel they need to beat Detroit next week to even make the playoffs. They’re not going to be worried about lowly Carolina. Since 2008, favorites are 43-66 the week before a divisional matchup they will be underdogs in. It’s safe to say Chicago will be an underdog at Detroit next week, so this applies and it makes sense. You’re not going to give 100% for an inferior opponent with a superior divisional opponent coming up next on your schedule.

Meanwhile, I think Carolina is that one team that will have a much better ATS record than straight up record this year. Last year it was the Lions and to some extent the Rams. This year I think it’s the Panthers. They’re never out of a game with Cam Newton at quarterback, but since they’re probably a 5 win team, Vegas is going to make them 7+ point underdogs fairly often. They’re underdogs of 7 here against a Chicago team that isn’t even that good. Besides, Jay Cutler really struggles as a favorite of 7+ in his career, going 5-9 ATS in that situation. This team is just a mess right now. I’m definitely not betting on them.

Buffalo Bills 20 Cincinnati Bengals 12

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3 (-120) 1 unit (-120)

All hail the Buffalo Bills! After defeating the New England Patriots 34-31, the Bills are one of 3 undefeated teams in the league with the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. I felt the Bills would give New England a game because they are a talented team and because that game meant more to them than it did to the Patriots, but I didn’t expect them to straight up win.

That win last week had to be huge for the Bills. Not only did they snap a 15 game losing streak against New England, they proved to the world that they are for real. They were 9 point home dogs coming into that game. They weren’t getting any respect despite their 2-0 record. However, after winning big games like that, teams tend to be flat the next week. The Bills gave 110% last week. That kind of effort is going to be very tough to maintain against the lowly Bengals.

The Bills have been my most heavily bet team this year. I bet 5 on them week 1, 4 week 2, and 4 week 3, and they’re 2-1 ATS with a ½ point spread loss against Oakland. This week, I’m not making a big play on them. They’re going to be in cruise control mode this week. They no longer have something huge to prove and they no longer are facing a formidable opponent. However, that doesn’t mean I’m going for the Bengals. The Bengals suck. I don’t think they can win straight up at home and 1 and 2 point losses are very rare in this league. If San Francisco can beat them at home, so can the Bills even if they’re flat. I say worst case scenario, this is a push, but I’m not betting heavily on Buffalo either.

Cleveland Browns 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Cleveland -1 (-110) 2 units (-220)

When does the schedule get hard for Cleveland? They’ve played Cincinnati (1-2), Indianapolis (0-3), and Miami (0-3) so far. They’ve played 3 teams with a combined 1-8 record. That one win, by the way, was against Cleveland week 1. Now they get Tennessee. Yes, Tennessee did beat Baltimore week 2, but Baltimore was flat off a huge win against Pittsburgh. Tennessee had trouble with Denver last week and could have lost if Denver hadn’t decided to go for it on 4^th and inches on the goal line with the lead.

Besides, this line says that Tennessee is 2 points better than Cleveland. I think these teams are pretty even. Tennessee could be especially flat and/or have trouble moving the ball after losing Kenny Britt for the season, which was confirmed by MRI Monday. That’s a huge loss and considering Chris Johnson decided to suck this year, Britt might have been their only offensive playmaker. I like Cleveland to take advantage of that and win here at home in a close one.

Detroit Lions 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Upset Pick (+105)

Pick against spread: Detroit +1 (-110) 2 units (+200)

I wonder if Dallas will get their act together this week. Phil Costa botched 4 snaps last week and Kevin Ogletree consistently ran the wrong route. Tony Romo is really not getting a lot of help. His offensive line is so inexperienced. Plus, Miles Austin is out and Ogletree, his replacement, sucks. Besides, Felix Jones is nursing a shoulder injury. He’ll play this week again, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he once again didn’t get a ton of touches. They’re being cautious with him. His backups, Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray, couldn’t do anything against Washington last week.

If Dallas doesn’t get their act together this week, they’re in a lot of trouble. The Lions pass rush is one of the best in the league. Romo still has a bad rib and the Cowboys offensive line can’t block a plastic bag. If they get early pressure on him, Romo could start making poor decisions with the ball just to get rid of it. I don’t have any trends here to support it, but I really feel like Detroit is the right side. I think they win and improve to 4-0 this week in Dallas.

Houston Texans 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +4 (-115) 2 units (-230)

This is an interesting one. Normally getting points with Ben Roethlisberger is a good thing. He’s 14-8 ATS as an underdog in his career, but I bet against him as an underdog week 1 against the Ravens and it panned out for me. The Steelers aren’t in a good situation here. Their offensive line is extremely banged up and Houston can definitely take advantage of that. Wade Phillips calls blitzes more than maybe any other coordinator in the league.

Besides, they’re coming off a road win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 108-127 ATS in that situation the next week, which isn’t damning, but it’s not good either. I’m going with Pittsburgh and hoping this is a field goal game. I like Houston to win, but getting Roethlisberger as an underdog is too good to pass on here especially with the line being higher than 3.

New Orleans Saints 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: New Orleans +7.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

This is one of those games where I’m going against the trends. The trends say Jacksonville is good as a home dog of 7+, going 2-0 ATS in the Jack Del Rio era in that situation. That’s only 2 games, but they’re 10-7 ATS as home dogs of any amount. Meanwhile, in the Sean Payton era, the Saints are 2-4 ATS as road favorites of 7+. However, the Saints are an offensive machine. Including the playoffs, they’ve scored 30+ in 9 of their last 12 games. Can the Jaguars score the 23 or 24+ points need to cover if the Saints score 30 or 31+. I don’t like their chances and I don’t like their chances of slowing the Saints’ offense, even on the road. I’m making a small play on the favorites here.

 

Minnesota Vikings 13 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Minnesota -2 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

Chiefs. Vikings. The toilet bowl. Neither of these teams has won a game. One of them will win a game here and improve their combined record to 1-7. I really didn’t know who to pick here. The Vikings are a terrible team who doesn’t deserve to be favorites on the road, but at the same time, the Vikings have jumped out to early leads in all 3 of their games and blown them all three times. However, if they jump out to an early lead here, I highly doubt Matt Cassel will be able to lead the Chiefs back. There’s a difference between him, and Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, and Matt Stafford, the first 3 quarterbacks the Vikings faced. One trend, Minnesota is coming off of a home loss of 3 or less, which means they’ll be extra motivated this week. Teams are 126-98 ATS in this situation since 2002. I’m taking the Vikings for 1 unit.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco +9 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Michael Vick is going to play in this game, but I don’t know if that’s as good as it sounds for the Eagles. They’re not going to give 100% effort against the lowly 49ers in this game unless they feel the need to rally around a backup quarterback. As long as Vick’s in the game, the 49ers will have the emotional edge. This game will mean more to them. Besides, Vick is playing terrible right now. He’s afraid to leave the pocket. He still can’t read blitzes and he could easily get hurt again this week, especially since San Francisco can get after the quarterback.

Besides, San Francisco leads the NFC in turnover margin. The Eagles are last in turnover margin and yet they’re favored here by 9 points. This would be a 4 or 5 unit pick, except for two things. One, the 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. However, they did win in this situation last week and they’re in their 2^nd consecutive road game, normally a lucrative betting situation (136-92 ATS since 2008). Teams are 60-49 ATS in the 2^nd straight game as a road dog after winning the first game straight up.

Also, the Eagles are good in the Andy Reid era off of a loss. This is a situation they’re 20-14 ATS in since Reid took over in 1999. However, I still like San Francisco’s chances to hang within a touchdown here. The Eagles have lost 5 of their last 6 games, including the playoffs. They’re very overvalued by Vegas.

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 17 Upset Pick (+110)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1 (+100) 2 units (-200)

There are conflicting situations here. On one hand, St. Louis is coming off a 21+ point ATS loss. They’re going to be playing for their dignity here. Teams in this situation are 159-125 ATS since 2002. However, Washington is coming off of a close road loss and in their 2^nd straight road game a situation teams are 45-34 in. I’m picking St. Louis here just because of the line. This line says the Redskins are 4 points better than the Rams and I don’t think it’s the case.

New York Giants 28 Arizona Cardinals 24

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1 (-110) 2 units (+200)

I thought the Giants were going to struggle in the first half of the season for the first time in the Tom Coughlin era this year after they lost to Washington in the opener. However, after beating St. Louis and Philadelphia, they’ve proven that false. They’re still a great team in the first half of the season. I like their chances to go into Arizona and make it 3 in a row. Their 4-2 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era after beating the Eagles and 13-6 ATS after a win against anyone as an underdog.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -5.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Arizona was -3 at Seattle last week and now Atlanta is -4.5. Huh? I know this line is -5.5 here because it’s a full point higher on Bodog than anywhere else, but everywhere else it’s -4.5. For my purposes, I don’t see much difference between -4.5 and -5.5. There aren’t a lot of 5 point games in this league and I still think Atlanta is being undervalued this week.

Why would they be undervalued? Well, people know they suck on the road and Seattle is good at home. That could have something to do with it. However, in the Mike Smith era the Falcons are 3-0 on the West Coast. They blew out Seattle last year in Seattle. Mike Smith is also 14-2 ATS off a loss with the Falcons and the Falcons are in their 2^nd straight road game, a situation teams are 136-92 ATS in since 2008. In the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in that situation, 5-0 off a loss.

Green Bay Packers 35 Denver Broncos 13 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -13 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

Green Bay hasn’t played one truly dominant game yet this season and they’re 3-0. I wouldn’t want to be Denver coming to Lambeau this week. Denver sucks and though I normally don’t like betting on heavy favorites, I don’t think Green Bay has much trouble winning by multiple touchdowns this week. That’s all I have to say about that.

New England Patriots 38 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)

Last week I bet pretty heavily on Baltimore as favorite in St. Louis because they were coming off a loss as a favorite and John Harbaugh is great in that situation as a coach. Bill Belichick is even better. Since being hired in 2000, BB is 16-9 ATS after a loss as a favorite. Even more important, he’s 14-5 ATS off a loss as a favorite if you exclude 2000, and 2008, the years someone other than Tom Brady was his starting quarterback. The Brady/Belichick combination is deadly off of a loss as a favorite. Straight up, they’re 15-3 and their wins are by an average of almost two touchdowns per game.

Belichick is also 31-18 ATS after a loss of any kind, 22-12 with Brady as his starting quarterback. They’re also 26-8 straight up off of a loss with Brady. No one is better than the Patriots off a loss. I normally don’t bet really heavily on a favorite of 3+. I’m doing that this week.

I also feel we’re getting excellent line value here. New England was -9 last week at Buffalo. Now they’re -4.5 at Oakland? Buffalo beat Oakland. I know the Patriots didn’t look all that great last week and the Raiders won, but I feel the Patriots are actually undervalued coming into this one and the Raiders are overvalued.

The Patriots lost a game last week that meant more to the Bills than it did to them. The Raiders won a game last week that meant more to them than the opponent Jets. The Jets were looking forward to Baltimore and New England in consecutive weeks coming up. The Raiders were looking to beat a quality team. That won’t be the case this week. This game will mean a lot to the Raiders, but it’ll mean a lot more to New England, who hates losing more than any other team in the league, as shown by their record after a loss, especially after a loss as a favorite, in the Belichick/Brady era.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +7 (-105) 4 units (-420)

Different year, same early season Chargers. They lost in New England week 2 despite fairly even yardage totals and then they barely beat the currently 0-3 Vikings and 0-3 Chiefs at home despite dominating the yardage totals. I don’t see why the 0-3 Dolphins can’t hang around as well. I mentioned last week I love betting on the Dolphins on the road. They’re 17-8 ATS on the road in the Tony Sparano era. That trend gets even better in their 2^nd straight road game. They’re 6-2 ATS in this situation since Sparano took over.

Besides, the early season Chargers should never be laying 7+. They’re just too mistake prone. One final thing, this line opened at -9 and was at -9 for a while and has dropped 2 full points since. The majority of the money was on Miami at -9 and Vegas changed the line pretty significantly. They don’t want people betting on Miami. For that reason, you should bet on Miami. I love Miami this week. The only huge difference between -9 and -7 is that a touchdown game pushes, which I’m fine with. There aren’t a lot of games decided by 8 or 9 points in this league.

Baltimore Ravens 16 New York Jets 14

Pick against spread: NY Jets +4 (-115) 3 units (-330)

The Jets didn’t look very good last week in Oakland, but that game didn’t mean a whole lot to them with Baltimore and New England next on their schedule, meanwhile the Ravens looked awesome last week trying to avenge a loss as a favorite in Tennessee the week before. Because of that, I think this line is a little skewed. These teams are about equal, but Vegas seems to have added another point to this line to make it -4 after last week.

Teams that lose as road favorites and then are road underdogs of more than 3 the next week are 19-12 ATS since 2002. This makes sense. A team is road favorites. That means they’re good. They lose straight up, so Vegas makes them underdogs of 3.5+ or more on the road the next week, which means Vegas sees them as inferior to another team, even though this might not necessarily be the case. They were good enough to be road favorites the week before right? Also, teams in their 2^nd straight road game tend to cover. Teams are 136-95 ATS in this situation since 2008. The 2^nd straight road game is typically not as tough as the first one. Besides, the Jets play a lot of field goal games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (-110) 4 units (+400)

That awkward moment when the Colts are scheduled to have back-to-back nationally televised games and Peyton Manning doesn’t play in either. Actually, we all got a treat last week. Even though Manning didn’t play, the Colts’ defense played well enough to keep the Colts in the game as double digit home underdogs. Now they Colts are double digit road underdogs in Tampa Bay and I have reason to believe they can keep this one close as well.

The Colts are coming off of a close home loss. You’d think this would deflate them for their next game, but since 2002, teams are 126-98 ATS in this situation. Also, the Buccaneers just aren’t a team that can blow people out. Since the start of last season, they’ve won 12 games. 4 of them were by 11 or more points (what they’ll need to cover this spread). Those 4 games, Carolina twice, Seattle on the road, and San Francisco.

Are the Colts that bad? I don’t think so. They can still get after the quarterback. Curtis Painter will be starting at quarterback for them this week, but I think he plays a little better than he did last week in relief of Collins because he’ll have a whole week of practice to get ready for the Buccaneers. One final trends, teams in their 2^nd straight game as 10+ point underdogs are 31-23 ATS since 2002. The Colts have to be feeling disrespected right now.

Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest (for anyone playing): New England -4, Indianapolis +10, Atlanta -4.5, Miami +7, San Francisco +9.5 (8-7 on the season)

 

 

32(32). Seattle Seahawks 0-2

Tarvaris Jackson vs. the pissed off Pittsburgh defense after a loss. Yeah, there was no way that would end well. And it didn’t. The Seahawks didn’t call a single play in Pittsburgh territory until midway through the 4^th quarter. However, the Seahawks head home to the magic Qwest Field now. They lost 6 games by 14+ points last year on the road, but still went 5-3. They play 3 games at home against the NFC West this year and the NFC West is 6-30 on the road in last season and this season combined. If they lose the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, that will be why.

31(28). Kansas City Chiefs 0-2

The Chiefs have been outscored 150-30 in their last 4 games that have counted. Matt Cassel is 57-109 for 437 yards, 1 touchdown, and 9 interceptions. Remember when everyone thought he was an MVP candidate? Good times. And now the Chiefs have lost Jamaal Charles, in addition to Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry, for the season on IR. Charles tore his ACL in a collision with the opposing team’s mascot. For the record, on a bizarre scale of 1-10, that’s about a 13. 

30(29). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-1

Luke McCown completed 10 passes last week. 4 of those were to the other team. He’s been benched for Blaine Gabbert now, marking the 3^rd starting quarterback the Jaguars will have in 3 weeks. David Garrard might not have been great and he might not have been worth the 8 million he was owed this season, but this team was hardly pressed for cap space, so I still don’t understand that move. Now Blaine Gabbert has to start before he’s ready and before they ideally wanted him to and the team could quit on the coach and the front office any day now with the consistently shifting situation at quarterback. They’re a mess.

29(31). San Francisco 49ers 1-1

If Alex Smith can’t throw for 200 yards against Seattle or Dallas missing 2 of their top 3 cornerbacks, I think it’s safe to say that he’s not going to be a functional starting quarterback in this league. Jim Harbaugh tried, but he did not succeed. Smith is doing nothing more than keeping the seat warm for raw rookie 2^nd round pick Colin Kaepernick. The switch could be made any week now as the 49ers would be smart to see what Kaepernick has before they make the decision whether or not to draft one of the three talented signal callers in this year’s draft (Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, and Landry Jones). Chances are, they’re going to have a shot to draft one of them this April.

28(27). Cincinnati Bengals 1-1

Andy Dalton is looking better than he did in the preseason, albeit against Cleveland and Denver, and the Bengals have an easy game with San Francisco this week and could easily be 2-1 at the end of it. However, with a recent arrest to Jerome Simpson and a recent 3 game suspension handed out to Cedric Benson, their fans are once again reminded that the Bengals are known more for their negative off the field behavior than anything, positive or negative (mostly negative), on the field.

27(30). Denver Broncos 1-1

TEBOW! TEBOW! TEBOW! Well, the fans got their wish last week…sort of. Due to lack of depth at the wide receiver position after injuries, Tebow came in as a wide receiver to block. He’s saying all the right things and being a good sport, doing whatever the team asks him to do, but you have to wonder when the Broncos are going to try to see what they have with him. I know they didn’t draft him, but he was a first round pick. It would be in their best interest to see what he can do in game action at quarterback, not to mention the right thing to do for a kid in Tebow who has never done anything wrong in game action on any level. Sure he doesn’t look good in practice, but, as Allen Iverson, would say, we’re talking about practice!

26(22). Miami Dolphins 0-2

Living up to his billing as extremely inconsistent, Chad Henne throws for 416 yards one week and then 170 the next on 12 for 30. Speaking of inconsistent, one week after proclaiming Reggie Bush a feature back, the Dolphins gave Bush 7 touches last week (after 20 week 1). The rookie Daniel Thomas, who had disappointed all preseason, got 19 touches week 2 after not getting a single one week 1. Who knows what’s going to happen week 3, but the smart money is on Reggie Bush’s days as a lead back being over (they didn’t last very long).

25(26). Carolina Panthers 0-2

Cam Newton had a rookie record 432 passing yards last week, breaking a record 422 yards, set by Cam Newton the week before. 2 weeks, 2 record breaking performances is a pretty good way to start a career, but I bet Newton wishes there was a W somewhere in there. However, with the lowly Jaguars coming to town this week, there’s a very good chance Newton gets his first win this season. The rest of the team is struggling, but Panther fans have to be happy with Newton’s progression as a starting quarterback. They haven’t had a franchise quarterback in forever.

24(24). Indianapolis Colts 0-2

The Colts have looked really bad in these first 2 weeks, getting destroyed by Houston and the losing to Cleveland in Indianapolis, a week after Cleveland lost at home at Cincinnati. However, I don’t agree with the naysayers who think this will be a 2-14 or 3-13 team. They still have Reggie Wayne. They still have Dallas Clark. They still have Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They still have Gary Brackett. Kerry Collins is playing terrible right now, but he’s historically a slow starter and about a month ago he was retired. Give him a few weeks to warm up or worst case Curtis Painter comes in and plays better than Collins is playing now. This team will win some games.

23(21). Minnesota Vikings 0-2

Yikes! One week after Donovan McNabb throws for 37 yards against San Diego, the Vikings blow a 17-0 lead against Tampa Bay at home. Is it time to call up old man Favre yet? More likely this team just switches to Christian Ponder earlier than they’d like to. The good news is that Kevin Williams is back this week after a 2 game suspension, so they’ll get better. I don’t know if they’ll get a lot better though.

22(25). Oakland Raiders 1-1

The Raiders blew a 21-3 halftime lead last week on a last minute drive by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the once lowly Bills. That has to hurt. The Raiders really have to be concerned about their defense after giving up touchdowns on all 5 2^nd half drives by the Bills last week. They face their toughest test this year with the Jets coming to town. It’ll be interesting to see how Jason Campbell does against a tough New York defense, especially since New York figures to be able to at least slow down Darren McFadden. Something tells me he won’t throw for 300 yards again this week.

21(23). Tennessee Titans 1-1

A week after losing to the same Jacksonville team that got demolished in New York week 2, the Titans bounced back at home against Baltimore, who was fresh off of beating the Pittsburgh Steelers by 28. However, I think Baltimore was just flat after an emotional win over the big, bad Steelers and they weren’t fully prepared for the lowly Titans. I still don’t think this team is all that great. Denver this week shouldn’t be much of a test, but Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Houston in their next 3 games will be tougher.

20(15). St. Louis Rams 0-2

The Rams were supposed to take a step forward this season. However, injuries have plagued their defense and with Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola hurt, Sam Bradford doesn’t have a lot of help around him on offense in terms of playmakers. They’re making stupid mistakes and Sam Bradford is cracking under the pressure of having to do it all by himself in just his 2^nd season. Their first 2 games were both winnable games. Now they have to play Baltimore, Washington, Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans and then go to Arizona and Cleveland. I know the NFC West sucks, but the Rams could be out of the race entirely at the end of that stretch if they sit at 2-7 or 3-6.

19(20). New York Giants 1-1

The Giants won the injury bowl against the Rams, but they could have easily lost if St. Louis hadn’t made so many mistakes. Needless to say, I don’t like their chances much in Philadelphia this week assuming Michael Vick plays. I think they just lost too many guys in the offseason and to injuries to field a competitive playoff team.

18(19). Washington Redskins 2-0

Lo and behold the Redskins are 2-0. I won’t consider them a legitimate playoff contender until they beat a legitimate playoff contender, but the work Mike Shanahan has done with Rex Grossman to make him a legitimate signal caller and also the work Rex Grossman has done to make himself into a legitimate signal caller is pretty remarkable. However, let’s see how they do against Dallas first.

17(16). Cleveland Browns 1-1

I had this team at 11-5 in the preseason, powered by a weak schedule. So far they’ve beaten one weak team, Indianapolis, and lost to another Cincinnati. I still hope they can put it together and make the playoffs, but realistically it’s looking like this is the Cleveland team were going to see all year. They’ll win some games against bad teams and lose some against bad teams and ultimately end up around 8-8.

 

16(17). Arizona Cardinals 1-1

St. Louis is really banged up due to injuries and has a hell of a schedule coming up. Seattle and San Francisco both suck. Arizona should win this division by default, the 2^nd year in a row this division has a default winner. Maybe it’s time we stop with this whole, all division leaders make the playoff things. The playoffs should be the best 12 teams regardless of division and conference (maybe not conference, but certainly division). That’s the fairest way. I’m tired of 7 and 8 win teams like Seattle last year and Arizona likely this year making the playoffs at the expense of good 9-10 win teams.

15(18). Buffalo Bills 2-0

The Bills are 2-0. Their reward, they get to be 9 point home underdogs to the Patriots and still have the majority of the public bet against them. They have to be feeling disrespected. This is a decent team, believe it or not. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s offense and they’re going to be really motivated to prove the doubters wrong and end a ridiculously long losing streak against the Patriots. Don’t be surprised if the Bills give the Pats an early season scare for the 3^rd straight year, or even win this game. Anything can happen in the NFL. We’ve seen it before. 

14(12). Chicago Bears 1-1

Yikes! One week the Bears were stomping on the Falcons, the next week Jay Cutler gets sacked 6 times by a New Orleans pass rush who was missing Will Smith and couldn’t get any pressure against Green Bay week 1. Cutler actually should have been sacked more than 6 times. He did a really good job of avoiding pressure and getting the ball out quickly. If it wasn’t for his moping around on the sideline, I’d say I was really impressed with Cutler last week. Now the Bears head home and play Clay Matthews and the Packers without right tackle Gabe Carimi, which means we could see a repeat of the Chicago/New York game where Cutler took 9 sacks and got hurt last season. Carimi was their only good offensive lineman last week. When he got hurt, everything went from bad to worse.

13(11). Dallas Cowboys 1-1

One week Tony Romo is the goat after throwing a last pick against New York. The next, he’s a hero leading a late comeback in 4^th quarter and in overtime with a cracked rib and a punctured lung. By the way, I don’t agree with DeAngelo Hall saying he’s going to aim for Romo’s ribs this week. I don’t expect Hall to avoid his ribs. If he hits them, it’s football, but to aim for his ribs is to purposely inflict what could be very dangerous harm to Romo. There’s a lot your ribs protect and aiming for them is no different from aiming for a guy’s head. If it happens it happens, but you don’t try for that.

12(14). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1

If the Buccaneers could show up in the 1^st half of games, they’d be a pretty good team. One week after almost engineering a 27-13 comeback against Detroit, the Buccaneers succeeded in coming back from down 17-0 against the Vikings week 2 in Minnesota. At halftime of that game, they looked like just another team in a sophomore slump. Now they’re right in the playoff mix again. I think this team hangs around all season, but the NFC is really crowded. Beating Atlanta this week would definitely help.

11(13). Pittsburgh Steelers 1-1

The Steelers got the bounce back win they needed against Seattle, but again it was Seattle. There was nothing in that game that made me even think about reconsidering my stance that this is a 9 or 10 win team and could easily miss the playoffs. The good news for them is that the AFC is thin this year. With Indianapolis dropping out of the playoff mix, there are really only 5 teams other than Pittsburgh that have a realistic shot at making the playoffs this year out of the AFC, New England, San Diego, Houston, Baltimore, and New York. However, maybe a surprise team like Buffalo sneaks in.

10(9). Atlanta Falcons 1-1

The Falcons beat one of the 4 teams to beat them last year, Philadelphia. However, if Michael Vick doesn’t go down in that game, I think Atlanta is a 0-2 team right now looking at a must win game in Tampa Bay. Matty Ice is cool in the 4^th quarter, but I don’t think they make that comeback if Philadelphia has a quarterback who can throw the ball downfield and complete 3^rd and longs. They’re still just on the playoff border for me in a stacked NFC. Needless to say, a loss in Tampa Bay this week would be very bad.

9(10). New York Jets 1-1

The Jets defense looked awesome last week, but then again it was Jacksonville. Luke McCown sucks. Besides, if I were a Jets fan, I’d be more worried that Mark Sanchez only had 182 yards and threw 2 interceptions against a terrible Jacksonville secondary missing its best defensive back, Derek Cox. Also, Shonn Greene, who was supposed to be the lead back this year, has a mere 75 rushing yards and 1 score on 26 carries. I would say if Shonn Greene can’t get it together this week against a poor Oakland run defense, he’d be benched, but who would they bench him for. LaDainian Tomlinson is too old to be a lead back. Besides, he’s only got 24 yards on 11 carries this season. If they can’t run the ball, I don’t like their chances, no matter how good their defense is.

8(8). Detroit Lions 2-0

The Lions live up to the preseason hype once again, joining Buffalo and Washington in the group of teams it’s weird to think of as 2-0 teams. The majority of 2-0 teams make the playoffs and I like Detroit’s chances better than Buffalo’s or Washington. And for the record, I don’t have any problem with Detroit running up the score on Kansas City. You may say it’s unsportsmanlike, but I don’t agree. If you suck, you deserve to get humiliated and you know that huge win had to feel good for Lions fans after all they’ve been through. Even better for Lions fans, I like their chances to improve to 3-0 this week against Minnesota.

7(5). Baltimore Ravens 1-1

Baltimore lost last week, but that’s understandable because they were flat after giving 110% to win a huge game against the hated rival Steelers. John Harbaugh normally does well after a loss, especially a loss as a favorite, so I like their chances to get back to 2-1 this week in St. Louis. I still really like this team. The AFC doesn’t have a clear 2^nd best team after New England. Baltimore could definitely be that team.

6(7). San Diego Chargers 1-1

The early season struggles haven’t gone anywhere for San Diego. A week after almost losing to Minnesota in San Diego in a game that Donovan McNabb threw for 37 yards in, the Chargers lost a winnable game in New England in which the yards totals were pretty even. It makes sense that the Patriots always beat the Chargers. The Patriots will kill you if you shoot yourself in the foot and the Chargers do that a lot. The fact that San Diego is still a legitimate contender to be the 2^nd best team in the AFC shows how poor the conference is this year.

5(6). Houston Texans

My pick for 2^nd best team in the conference after New England is Houston right now. San Diego always shoots themselves in the foot and I don’t know if Baltimore is talented or disciplined enough to really be an elite team in this league. Houston wins by default. I’m impressed with their ability to win in situations they shouldn’t be 100% in. The Texans could have easily coasted against the Colts with Peyton Manning out. They didn’t. The Texans could have easily coasted against the lowly Dolphins after an emotional win over the hated rival Colts. They didn’t. I really like this team this year. However, I think they’d be the 4^th best team in the NFC if they were an NFC team. This week’s game against New Orleans should prove that.

4(4). Philadelphia Eagles 1-1

Speaking of the NFC, Green Bay, New Orleans, and Philadelphia line up 2-3-4 for the 2^nd week in a row. The NFC is just better this year. Philadelphia probably wins last week in Atlanta if Michael Vick doesn’t get hurt. They have an easier game this week with New York and Vick should be back. This might be the most talented team in the league if their defense continues to play like it did last week. Julio Jones and Roddy White couldn’t do anything, but their front 7 did a better than expected job on Michael Turner, except for one big run. However, turnover and chemistry issues have them behind New England, Green Bay, and New Orleans. Their team still hasn’t been together long and plus Asante Samuel is unhappy that the Eagles brought in Nnamdi Asomugha and DRC and says he would be willing to play elsewhere. That’s not a good thing for team morale.

3(3). New Orleans Saints 1-1

The offense has always been consistent. They’ve scored 30+ in their first 2 games, a pretty common occurrence for this team. However, after Aaron Rodgers lit them up week 1, Jay Cutler couldn’t do anything against them week 2 anything thanks to New Orleans’ pass rush. It’s tough to grade their defense so far because most teams struggle against Rodgers, but then again, most teams can get pressure on Jay Cutler. Still, I think this is one of the elite teams in the league. Green Bay is better than them, but no one else in the NFC is.

2(2). Green Bay Packers 2-0

The Packers should be a little bit concerned about their pass defense. They’ve allowed the most passing yards in the league and free safety Nick Collins is done for the season with an injury. However, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Drew Brees is an excellent quarterback and it’s possible they were just sleepwalking against Carolina and that’s why they gave up so many yards to Cam Newton. I think their defense is good enough for them to win a lot of games as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy and leading that offense.

1(1). New England Patriots 2-0

This defense bends, but does not break. Sure they gave up a lot of yards to Miami and San Diego, but they still won by 14 points. Besides, almost every time Tom Brady drops back to pass, something good happens for this offense. Their offensive line is playing very well and that should be a scary thought for the rest of the league. New England remains #1.