QB Christian Ponder UP

The game’s MVP (though I’d argue Leonard Hankerson deserved it), Ponder started off shaky. He underthrew a limp deep ball that was caught by Leonard Hankerson, who made a great play to find the ball, for 49 yards. He then threw a near pick on the goal line, a bad decision. Kendric Burney had inside position on Hankerson. Then he threw an incompletion and the South had to settle for a field goal. However, after that, he was good. 7-13 for 131 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks. Everything from 15 yards or shorter was good. Good timing, good reads, good accuracy, looks like a West Coast offense type quarterback. His struggles with the deep ball, which is why he’s no more than a 4^th rounder, but overall he helped himself today. He was really the only quarterback who greatly increased his stock today.

WR Leonard Hankerson UP

My MVP, Leonard Hankerson did everything. He was on the field for almost every play. He was impossible to cover. Aside from one drop, he didn’t make a mistake. He’s big and physical at 6-2 205 and plays bigger than that. He’s got good hands and great speed and athleticism. Reminds me a bit of Brandon Marshall actually. He had 5 catches for 99 yards and a score and should have had more if his quarterbacks had the arm strength to hit him downfield. He had his man beat to end the half for a sure touchdown before an underthrow back to the defender.

DT Sione Fua UP

Fua got into the backfield and made a play at least a half dozen times today. He’s tough to block, big and sneaky quick. He fits a 3-4 or a 4-3 as a tackle. He moves into the 3^rd round range after a good day today.

G Clint Boling DOWN

He had one nice block, but overall got beat today. He played guard and wasn’t able to handle the quicker interior linemen. If he can’t do that, there’s no way he can play his natural position of tackle.

CB Kendric Burney UP

This 5-9 corner definitely helped his stock this week. He was matched up with the 6-2 Hankerson a lot today and even though he was 5 inches shorter, he still was the only one able to keep Hankerson in check. He had a near pick. He made a few open field tackles. He played well on special teams. The announcers made an interesting comparison to Brandon Flowers. 5-9 180 guy with 4.5 speed and Flowers is one of the top 10 cornerbacks in the league now, already, after being drafted in the 2nd in 2008.

CB Jalil Brown UP

Didn’t get a ton of recognition today, but I think he played well. He got into good position. He should have found the ball and picked it off when Ponder had that first underthrow, but he was in good position. He’s a physical corner who did surprisingly well even with the no man press coverage rules and made a nice play in the end zone where you are allowed to press.

WR Ronald Johnson DOWN

Ran a few ugly routes that made it impossible for him to get open. He also didn’t look like he knew where he was going at all on special teams as a return man. He’s athletic, but plays like he doesn’t have a clue.

OLB Von Miller UP

Really impressed this week. He’s undersized, but when you play like him, who cares. He’s instinctual and doesn’t get fooled easily. He made a few nice tackles for loss. Even more impressive, he showed he could play the 4-3 as a non-rush linebacker. He played linebacker all day today and wasn’t allowed to rush the quarterback and he still made an impact stuffing the run and covering well.

FB Charles Clay UP

A bigger version of Dorin Dickerson from last year. I don’t know where this guy lines up, but I want him somewhere. He played running back, full back, tight end in college. He’s 6-3 235 and can make plays in the open field, like he did once today, so he could be an h-back, but he proved he could play fullback at a high level today.

QB Jake Locker DOWN

Not moving him down too much because I already had a low grade on him coming in, but he didn’t do himself any favors today. He was wildly inaccurate and showed more of his terrible footwork. He almost had Titus Young murdered on two separate occasions by throwing the ball too high. He should have been picked off in the end zone. He was asked on the sideline to explain his completion percentage in the 50s for his career and instead of saying something like numbers don’t tell the whole story and saying, I didn’t struggle in college he got this “oh shit” look on his face and said something about how he hasn’t been playing under center for very long. An excuse was not the right answer there. He reminds me of Jay Cutler, big arm, poor accuracy, loser in college, fast, athletic, they have similar size, similar college stats, similar college record, similar speed. Cutler went in the first and I think Locker still could too (Mike Shanahan in Washington, the same man who took Cutler 11^th with Denver), but he’s not a good quarterback. He went 6-10 for 98 yards today, was all over the place with his accuracy, and his struggles can’t be blamed on his supporting cast like they could at Washington.

MLB Casey Matthews UP

He doesn’t have his brother’s size or speed, but he has everything else. His tenacity, his hustle, his heart, his instincts. Matthews made several nice plays in coverage today. He really was the quarterback of that defense. He really impressed me this week.

RB Derrick Locke UP

Goes down on first contact, but only if you can catch him. He’s extremely explosive, looking forward to seeing not just his 40, but his initial 10 yard speed. He gets low and he’s sneaky and he’s got great vision. Seems like a solid 3^rd down back.

WR Jeremy Kerley UP

Worked the middle of the field like a pro today. He should be a solid slot receiver/return man for any team in the NFL. He’s worth a 3^rd rounder.

CB Richard Sherman UP

I didn’t know much about him going into today, but I didn’t know much about Chris Cook going into Senior Bowl week last year and he ended up a 2^nd rounder. He’s a former wide receiver, with a big body at 6-2, but he’s quick and he’s got good hip fluidity. He’ll be even better if he can man press. He blanketed receivers all day today, with the exception of a bad mistake at the end of the half where he should have given up a touchdown, except Andy Dalton has a girly arm.

DE Sam Acho UP

Measured up undersized at under 6-2 257, but worked his ass off all week and made several nice plays in the backfield today. He’s too quick for some tackles and he’s athletic enough to play standing up as a 3-4 rush linebacker. He burned Nate Solder today.

OT Nate Solder DOWN

I think this whole North offensive line proved to be overrated, but Solder in particular. He couldn’t keep anyone out of the backfield. He had a few nice second level blocks and he’s mobile, but if he’s going to be a left tackle, he’s got a lot of things to work on.

OT Anthony Costanzo DOWN

Also struggled, but that makes sense, because, for some reason, they put him at guard. He wasn’t as bad as Solder though and he was playing out of position so I’m not knocking him down as much as I am Solder.

DE Christian Ballard UP

Showing more and more of his natural athleticism, he has excellent chase speed for a 285 pound lineman. I think he proved he can play 4-3 left end, in addition to 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end. He played 4-3 left end in college, but he might be athletic enough to do the same in the pros.

QB Greg McElroy UP

He showed the strongest arm of any South quarterback and his footwork is like watching an instructional video. All that time in a Pro Style offense coached by a Pro Style coach in Nick Saban helped. I think he’s better than John Parker Wilson and should be a solid backup as a late round pick.

MLB Colin McCarthy UP

Not very athletic, but he made a ton of plays today. He seems best off as a 4-3 middle linebacker. He’s got an amazing motor. He gets after the ball. He’s a defensive leader and a tremendous special teamer. He should make an impact on an NFL roster as a rookie as a 4^th or 5^th rounder.

CB Shareece Wright UP

Reportedly a film rat, Wright looked the part today. He looked prepared for everything the offense had. He covered routes very well. He’s even better in man press, which he didn’t even get to do today. I pegged him as a sleeper going in and he didn’t disappoint.

DE Pierre Allen DOWN

Didn’t do anything except commit several penalties.

NT Phil Taylor UP

Cemented his status as the #1 nose tackle in this class with an amazing day against the North’s offensive line. I know he’s 337 pounds, but he doesn’t move like it.

RB Noel Devine DOWN

Good if he’s not touched, which, in the NFL, doesn’t happen very often. He doesn’t his Locke’s vision, explosion, or shiftiness either.

OT Derek Sherrod UP

Sherrod took advantage of Costanzo and Solder struggling and really showed himself to be a potential first rounder. He played better than any tackle in this game.

CB Curtis Brown UP

Reminding me why I had a first round grade on him before a down senior year, Brown made a bunch of plays. He’s physical, but also athletic.

QB Ricky Stanzi UP

Struggled early, but appeared to be the most NFL ready quarterback in this game. He has above average arm strength, good footwork thanks to a Pro Style offense, and he led a couple good drives.

DE Brooks Reed UP

The energizer battery. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not somewhere jumping up and down right now. He has so much energy. He’s not particularly athletic, but he’s a feisty player and he can play  both a 3-4 and a 4-3. He wrecked havoc for the South today.

QB Andy Dalton DOWN

Terrible arm strength, worst in this game. He doesn’t have a shot at completing anything more than 25 yards downfield. He had the worst day of any quarterback in this game.

OT DeMarcus Love DOWN

Couldn’t handle Ryan Kerrigan at all. Kerrigan blew past him on several occasions, causing a sack and a hold.

RB Bilal Powell UP

He rushed for 50 yards on 10 carries. He’s a one cut and go type player, but he doesn’t go down on first contact. He’s got good hands as well. He could be a starter in this league someday.

TE Mike McNeill DOWN

Didn’t do much except drop a pass for an interception. He didn’t help himself at all this week.

OLB KJ Wright UP

Wright caught the interception off the hands of McNeill. He impressed in coverage and is a big body against the run as well. Commentators suggested he could be a 3-4 rush linebacker if he bulked up some. At the very least, he’s a solid 4-3 SAM linebacker.

QB Colin Kaepernick UP

He was inconsistent, but he’s a project worth taking on in the 3^rd round. He’s got a good arm and his weird delivery is more Philip Rivers than Byron Leftwich. He reminds me a bit of Josh Freeman, definitely a poor man’s version, but the comparisons are there.

WR Dane Sanzenbacher UP

Led the North with 5 catches, all of which were on nice slants or curls. He’s a possession slot type receiver and needs to bulk up some to handle hits over the middle in the NFL, but he’s quicker than fast and has great hands. He’s a potential early day 3 guy.

TE Lee Smith DOWN

Had a drop and a penalty today. He’s a good blocker, but nothing else.

OT James Carpenter DOWN

He might just be a guard. He really struggled on the outside today against faster guys.

RB Da’Rel Scott UP

First he had a nice special teams play, then he had a few nice carries and never went down on first contact. He runs bigger than he is and he has good quickness. He runs a bit upright, but he’s still a decent mid/late round guy. He took a screen pass 34 yards.

RB Roy Helu DOWN

An upright runner, who didn’t break tackles. He also displayed poor vision. He only carried twice, but I didn’t like what I saw either time.

WR Titus Young DOWN

Explosive, yes, but I think he’s a bit immature. He committed a terrible offensive pass interference penalty, he dances around too much on returns for no reason, he could have come down with both throws that Locker threw to him. He didn’t absorb the hit well on either. He dropped a lot of passes in practice as well.

DE Pernell McPhee UP

Very active today, good chase speed, and had a strip sack of Jake Locker, who is a fast quarterback.

G Steve Schilling DOWN

Another North offensive lineman that couldn’t protect. He was burned on back to back plays by Jarvis Jenkins and Phil Taylor.

CB DeMarcus Van Dyke UP

Had several nice moments in coverage. He’s a project, but he’s very athletic. He needs to bulk up, but with 32 inch arms, he has room to do so.

OLB Lawrence Wilson DOWN

Couldn’t fight through blocker at all. He’s a bit too small and unathletic.

Senior Bowl Preview 

Senior Bowl Monday 

Senior Bowl Tuesday 

Senior Bowl Wednesday

Senior Bowl Thursday 

Senior Bowl Game 

()=Previous ranking (post-draft) 

32(30). Cincinnati Bengals

After winning the division in 2009, hopes were high in Cincinnati, especially with Terrell Owens coming in during the offseason. Unfortunately, Carson Palmer’s struggles, the ego of the T-Ocho show (it’s no coincidence Palmer had his best games when both were hurt), and injuries on defense left them at 4-12… (read more)

31(32). Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman predicts the Redskins will win the NFC East. Rex Grossman is wrong. Don’t get me wrong, I love that he made that prediction. I love unfounded confidence in sports. I love when a team down 3-0 in a series predicts a series win. I love when a team currently out of the playoff race predicts they will win… (read more)

30(29). Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers had the worst record in the league last year and they were rewarded with the league’s toughest schedule. That’s what you get for being in the same division as Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans. They play 6 games against those 3 teams and could easily lose all 6. They also play Green… (read more)

29(31). Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks went into week 17 in an interesting situation last year. They were 6-9 and missing their starting quarterback. If they lost by 15+, they’d set a record for most losses in a single season by 15+ with 10. For those of you who can’t do math, that would have meant that they lost all 10 of their games by 15+. However… (read more)

28(19). San Francisco 49ers

In the prime of the Mike Singletary era (by prime, I mean when people actually thought this team had a shot at making the playoffs), this team was known for its defense. However, the offense has somehow become the team’s best unit and no, it’s not because the offense got that much better. Alex Smith is still their… (read more)

27(22). Oakland Raiders

After losing the Super Bowl in 2003, the Raider endured 7 straight seasons of 11 losses or more. Last year, they rose to 8-8. This year, I’m projecting a regression for several reasons. First, they lost a significant part of their team in free agency. Nnamdi Asomugha was their best player, hands down. He’s gone. Zach… (read more)

26(21). Denver Broncos

The fans want Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow might not be the best quarterback on their roster. He might be, but he might not be. However, we know what Kyle Orton is. Kyle Orton is boring. Kyle Orton can get you to the playoffs if you have a good supporting cast, but he won’t win any games and if he doesn’t have a good… (read more)

25(18). Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had an opportunity to contend for a playoff spot. All they had to do was send a 3rdrounder to Denver for Kyle Orton. Orton isn’t a great quarterback or anything, but this team has a good defense and they fixed the running game and offensive line in the offseason so all he’d have to do is not turn the ball over… (read more)

24(23). Tennessee Titans

The Titans are cleaning house. Former Head Coach Jeff Fisher is gone after 17 seasons, replaced with Mike Munchak. Vince Young is gone, as is Kerry Collins, who retired. They drafted Jake Locker with the 8th overall pick and signed Matt Hasselbeck to be a stopgap for them until Locker is ready to… (read more)

23(27). Jacksonville Jaguars

All the Jaguars had to do was beat the Colts week 15 and they had the division and the playoffs wrapped up with 2 weeks to spare. However, they didn’t beat the Colts week 15. Then they lost week 16. Then they lost week 17. They ended up missing the postseason entirely, finishing 8-8 as the Colts once again… (read more)

22(25). Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs improved from 4-12 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But did they actually get any better? That can be tough to tell because of how easy Kansas City’s schedule was last season. In 2010, Kansas City played 4 games against teams with better than a .500 record (including playoffs). They went 1-3 in those games… (read more)

21(24). Buffalo Bills

The last time the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs, Bill Clinton was still president (1999). The main reason for that is inconsistent (or consistently bad) quarterback play. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick that quarterback to get them back to the playoffs? I doubt it. Chan Gailey’s offense has always inflated quarterbacks’ stats… (read more)

20(28). Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre was amazing in 2009 and this team almost went to the Super Bowl. Brett Favre was terrible in 2010, getting benched for Joe Webb, who also sucked. Now, former Eagles’ and Redskins’ quarterback Donovan McNabb is the starting quarterback and many Vikings fans feel he can get them back into the… (read more)

19(16). Chicago Bears

The Bears went 11-5 and made the NFC Championship game last year, but I never bet big money on them to win ever. I didn’t trust them. Jay Cutler is an interception prone quarterback and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is a coordinator whose system leads to a lot of turnovers (a lot of yards and touchdowns too… (read more)

18(20). Cleveland Browns

3rd round pick Colt McCoy took over week 6 as the starter, as a rookie, after 5 weeks of Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. He lost by a lot in his debut against the Steelers, but after that, he had 4 straight strong performances. The Browns beat the Saints and the Patriots in consecutive games, and then came… (read more)

17(17). Detroit Lions

In 2008, the Lions won no games. If they had forfeited every game, their record would have been the same. However, that seems like a long way away now. Bottoming out was what this team needed after a long stretch of terrible play. Bottoming out allowed them to start fresh with new personnel in the front office… (read more)

16(13). New York Giants

In 2004, the Giants started 4-1 before finishing 6-10. In 2006, they started 6-2 before finishing 8-8. They still made the playoffs and lost to the Eagles in the first. In 2007, they started 6-2 before finishing 10-6. They eventually got their act together and won the Super Bowl, but their 2nd half struggles were still… (read more)

15(12). St. Louis Rams

In 2009, the Rams won 1 game. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford instantly made this a better team as the Rams won 7 games and almost made the playoffs. Bradford was 354 for 590 (60.0%) for 3512 yards (6.0 YPA), 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. That might not sound great, but consider that he lost Mark… (read more)

14(11). Pittsburgh Steelers

Of the last 10 Super Bowl runner ups, only 3 have made the playoffs the next season, combining to win 1 playoff game. The last time a team won the Super Bowl after losing it the year before was the early 70s. The Steelers have made the Super Bowl three times in the Big Ben era. The last two times they made the Super Bowl… (read more)

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC North

13(15). Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers went 10-6 in 2010 and almost made the playoffs. However, after LeGarrette Blount took over as the starting running back week 7, and added a new dimension to their offense, rushing for 5 yards per carry out of the backfield, they didn’t lose by more than a touchdown for the rest of the season, hanging… (read more)

12(26). Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals obviously felt they were a quarterback away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender because they spent a 2nd round pick and a starting cornerback to get Kevin Kolb. However, Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner and their supporting cast is not the supporting cast it was in 2009 when they won… (read more)

11(8). Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys bottomed out last season. Once a popular pick to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl the same season that they hosted the Super Bowl, the Cowboys started the season 1-7 and finished 6-10. However, it wasn’t all bad. Wade Phillips is finally gone. The Cowboys were never going to win a… (read more)

10(7). Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco has more wins in his first 3 seasons than any quarterback not named Dan Marino, but there is one thing he’s yet to do and that’s beat Ben Roethlisberger. Flacco has beaten the Steelers twice in those 3 years, but that was when Ben was out of the lineup. Roethlisberger has gotten the best of Flacco… (read more)

9(14). New York Jets

This offseason could have gone in two completely different directions for the Jets. It could have gone very badly. David Harris, Shaun Ellis, Brodney Pool, Antonio Cromartie, Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith, and Santonio Holmes were all free agents heading into this offseason. That’s 4 defensive starters and their… (read more)

8(5). Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning had a down season by his standards. He posted his lowest quarterback rating since 2002 (91.9), had his lowest YPA since his rookie season and threw more picks than any season since 2002. However, that doesn’t mean that at age 35, Peyton Manning is a declining player. A lot of his… (read more)

7(9). San Diego Chargers

The Chargers struggled in the start of the 2010 season, nothing new to them. They started 2-5, but like they had in recent years, everyone expected them to be able to bounce back. They looked well on their way, winning 4 in a row, before losing to the Raiders and falling to 6-6. They won their next two games, but a loss to the… (read more)

 6(2). Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning… (read more)

5(10). Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles stole the offseason. They might not be the best team (though they might be), but there’s no question this is the most hyped team. The added a key addition at almost every position, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha at cornerback, Jason Babin at defensive end, Cullen Jenkins at… (read more)

4(6). New Orleans Saints

In February of 2010, the Saints were on top of the world as Super Bowl Champions. However, like every reigning Super Bowl Champion before them since the 2003 New England Patriots, the Saints failed to win a playoff game, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Seattle Seahawks, a team that somehow qualified… (read more)

3(4). Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, as I predicted last August (just saying), last year despite having many players on IR, including several key players. Among those were Ryan Grant, their lead back, Jermichael Finley, their stud tight end, Morgan Burnett, a talented rookie starter at strong safety, Nick Barnett, a… (read more)

 2(1). Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons finished 13-3 last season and got the NFC #1 seed, but they were exposed late. New Orleans came into town week 16 and won and all of a sudden the mystique behind the Georgia Dome, where Matt Ryan had only lost once in his 3 year career, was gone. 3 weeks later, the Packers came in and… (read more)

1(3). New England Patriots

At this time last year, some were talking about the Patriots as a potential 9-7 or 8-8 team that would miss the playoffs. The Jets were the talk of the division and some were even speculating the Dolphins were better than the Patriots. Their defense was inexperienced and their key offensive players were… (read more)

AFC East 

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Playoffs

Prop Bets

These are extremely preliminary. Once we actually have free agency and trades, i will have more in depth Power Rankings. I don’t necessarily think Atlanta and Houston will meet in the Super Bowl, but I think they could and I wanted to mix things up in these preliminary rankings.

32. Washington Redskins

31. Seattle Seahawks

30. Cincinnati Bengals

29. Carolina Panthers

28. Minnesota Vikings

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

26. Arizona Cardinals

25. Kansas City Chiefs

24. Buffalo Bills

23. Tennessee Titans

22. Oakland Raiders

21. Denver Broncos

20. Cleveland Browns

19. San Francisco 49ers                    

18. Miami Dolphins

17. Detroit Lions

16. Chicago Bears

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14. New York Jets

13. New York Giants

12. St. Louis Rams

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

10. Philadelphia Eagles

9. San Diego Chargers

8. Dallas Cowboys

7. Baltimore Ravens

6. New Orleans Saints

5. Indianapolis Colts

4. Green Bay Packers

3. New England Patriots

2. Houston Texans

1. Atlanta Falcons

AFC Wild Card 

New York Jets 22 San Diego Chargers 19

This is a rematch of the Chargers last postseason game, in 2009. The Jets won that game and I don’t expect anything different here. The Jets have no fear of going on the road in the playoffs and play a lot of close games. The Chargers, meanwhile, always choke in the playoffs and suck in close games. Until Norv Turner is gone, they won’t go far in the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cleveland Browns 10 

The Browns are a nice story as an 11 win team, but a lot of that has to do with their easy schedule. Baltimore is still the better team here and beats their divisional rival for the 3rd time in the season. They’re at home and teams that beat a divisional rival twice have a huge advantage against them in the playoffs. 

NFC Wild Card

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Detroit Lions 21

The Eagles could be on quite a run to end the season. I expect they could struggle to start the season against St. Louis (a tough home team), the Giants (always good in the first half of the season), and the Falcons (a very talented team who is great at home). However, their schedule gets easier after that and this team has a lot of talent. I expect them to be hot coming into the playoffs and to beat the inexperienced Lions here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 St. Louis Rams 21

The Falcons have to go on the road here and the Rams are a very good home team and not a team to be taken lightly after going 9-7 after a ridiculous hard schedule. However, I really like the Falcons this year and Matt Ryan to finally win a playoff game after failing in his first two tries in his young career. Besides, the Rams are a home dome team so the Falcons won’t be in the elements.  

AFC Semis

New England Patriots 28 New York Jets 21

Patriots. Jets. The rematch. The Jets beat the Patriots last season, but I don’t think I’d be a homer to say that was a surprise. The Jets played an absolutely perfect game and the Patriots made a lot of mistakes and it was still only a 7 point game. This is the rubber match after these two split the season series and I’m giving the Patriots the advantage. They have the better team. They got better in the offseason. The Jets got worse. 

Baltimore Ravens 27 Houston Texans 20 

I’m not in love with the Ravens or anything, but I give them the advantage here in Houston against an inexperienced, poorly coached Houston team. Besides, Houston is coming off a bye, which, historically, actually hurts them in the playoffs.

NFC Semis

Atlanta Falcons 27 Green Bay Packers 21

This game is the opposite as last year’s Atlanta/Green Bay playoff game. Green Bay is the #1 seed coming off a bye and playing at home. The Falcons are coming off of a road win in the wild card round of the playoffs. I expect the result to be the opposite too. The Falcons match up with the Packers better in cold weather, ironically, while the Packers are defending champions coming off a first round bye, two situations that ironically work against them.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New Orleans Saints 27

The Saints had a great regular season at 13-3, but it ends without a playoff game once again. The Eagles are red hot coming off a late season surge into the playoffs and the #3 seed. The talent level is pretty even here, but I like the Eagles a lot in warm weather (great pass offense, great pass defense) and the Eagles aren’t cold coming off a first round bye like the Saints.

AFC Championship

New England Patriots 23 Baltimore Ravens 17

The Patriots seem to be facing all their old demons. The Jets beat them in 2010. The Ravens beat them in 2009. If anything, that works in the Patriots’ favor. You don’t want to mess with this team when they’re motivated and they will be here. That’s all I have to say about that.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24

The Eagles won on the road in warm weather, but they come back home here in cold weather. I think that gives Atlanta the advantage. Also, Michael Vick and Andy Reid have struggled in the playoffs before. Reid always seems to mess something up (4 NFC Championship losses) and Vick is 2-3 career. This will be a close game, which I think suits the Falcons better. The Falcons have the weapons to hang with the Eagles and the pass rush and cornerbacks to slow their offense.

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 27 Atlanta Falcons 21

The Falcons have a very complete team, but I still believe the Patriots are the best team in the league. They’ve had bad luck in the playoffs in the past few years, but have remained an amazing regular season team, going 14-2 last season. I may sound like a homer calling it bad luck, but what else do you call it when a team that used to be great in the regular season and the playoffs all of a sudden is only great in the playoffs. I think Brady and Belichick get back to the Super Bowl this year, winning their 4^th (tying Brady with Montana for most all time). Joe Montana once lost 3 straight playoff games. The following season, he won the Super Bowl. I see something similar happening here.

1-16 17-32

Updated 4/28/11

For more mocks check out our NFL Mock Draft Database

This is just the first round. I’m focusing more in depth on the first round for this final mock. I’ll do the same for rounds 2-4 Thursday night into Friday morning and for rounds 4-7 Friday night into Saturday morning.

Note: I’m not mocking any trades in this mock. I tried mocking trades, but my brain exploded, so I’m not going to do that anymore.

1. Carolina Panthers- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)

There isn’t much more to say about this one. The Panthers claim that they’re considering four players in this spot, Newton, Patrick Peterson, AJ Green, and Marcell Dareus. However, either that’s not true or it is true, but in that case Newton is likely the clear favorite at this point. Everyone in the know has Newton in this spot and when that happens, normally they’re right, so I’m not going to get too cute with this one and go against the grain.

Other options:

AJ Green- If not Newton, then I think it’s Green. The defense isn’t the side of the football they have problems on and while defensive tackle is a need, this is a deep class at that position so they could get a good one with one of their two 3^rd rounders. If they don’t pick Newton, that means Jimmy Clausen will probably get another shot and they can’t let him do that without better receivers, especially with Steve Smith on his way out. For the record, I’d pick Green. I’m not sold on any of these quarterbacks and Clausen still has some promise. Quarterbacks have bounced back from bad rookie years before.

Marcell Dareus- If they go defense, Dareus will be the pick. Defensive tackle is a major need of theirs.

Patrick Peterson- Just because the Panthers say they haven’t ruled him out.

2. Denver Broncos- RLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)

Every year there’s a surprising pick top 10 pick that gets late momentum. Last year it was the Redskins with Trent Williams over Russell Okung to Washington at 4. In 2009, it was Tyson Jackson to Kansas City at 3 over Aaron Curry. This year, it’s looking like this will be that surprise. Von Miller #2 to the Broncos over Marcell Dareus, the consensus #2 pick for about a month now. Don’t ask me why they’re doing. I’d much rather prefer a player with #2 pick value on all 3 downs, but I’m not making this pick. The Broncos are and they seem to be locked in on Von Miller.

Other options:

Marcell Dareus- Dareus was the popular pick for a while and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they made the smart move and took him over Von Miller.

Patrick Peterson- Peterson is the other name I’ve heard here. Peterson gives them an instant upgrade over Perrish Cox and a future #1 cornerback when Champ Bailey has to move to free safety.

3. Buffalo Bills- 3-4 DE Marcell Dareus (Alabama)

Fortunately for my sanity, the Broncos picking Miller at 2 won’t blow up my mock too much. The Bills will take whichever one of Dareus or Miller that Denver passes on. Both fill major needs on their defensive front 7 and fit their 3-4 scheme like a glove. Everyone in the know seems to think that the Bills like Ryan Fitzpatrick enough to start him next year, rather than Blaine Gabbert, who they don’t seem to be sold on. Patrick Peterson might also be under consideration, but their defensive front 7 is a lot bigger of a need than their defensive backfield and the last time a cornerback went in the top 3 was 1997. It doesn’t happen often.

Other options:

Patrick Peterson- Peterson, as I mentioned above, is their other option.

Blaine Gabbert- Maybe they take a quarterback. I doubt it though.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- WR AJ Green (Georgia)

Again, nothing too surprising here. I’d be surprised if I got any of my top 4 picks wrong. Everyone in the know seems to think the Bengals have locked in on Green. The way the Bengals draft is that they focus on a different position in each round and rarely stray from that. They also don’t like to move. With that in mind, it seems very likely they go wide receiver in round 1 and then quarterback in round 2.

Julio Jones- Julio Jones would be the other wide receiver option. The Bengals have actually said they like him more, but no one’s buying it.

Patrick Peterson- I’ve had Peterson here in recent weeks because they’ve spent a good amount of time with the top two cornerbacks in this class and because neither of their two starting cornerbacks are signed for more than one more season.

Nick Fairley- The Bengals were spotted visiting Fairley at his house. Defensive tackle isn’t a huge need of theirs, but at the same time, they don’t have a playmaker like Fairley on the roster.

5. Arizona Cardinals- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)

This is where it gets interesting. Gabbert was the popular pick here for a while. That’s not the case anymore and I think it makes sense. The Cardinals have said they’re not sold on any of these quarterbacks and their star player Larry Fitzgerald has made it clear he doesn’t want to play with a rookie. Recently, Fitzgerald also said he doubts they take a quarterback at 5. With that in mind, Peterson makes the most sense. I would be surprised if there was a single team in the league that didn’t have him rated amongst the top 5 prospects in this class and it’s not like they don’t need an upgrade over Greg Toler opposite Dominique Rodgers Cromartie.

Other options:

Blaine Gabbert- Would they take Gabbert and risk pissed off their franchise player? It’s not smart, but teams do stupid things sometimes. They’ve certainly done their homework on him.

Trade down- The Cardinals have a lot of coaches from the Steelers’ coaching tree and the Steelers are known for not valuing the cornerback position high, instead valuing linebackers high. If they don’t want to use a top 5 pick on a cornerback, San Francisco would love to move up. Arizona could then get their linebacker, either Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, at 7.

6. Cleveland Browns- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)

Tough one here between Jones, Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn. All 3 fill major needs and fit the scheme and the range. I’m giving them Jones for two reasons. One, they prefer experienced college players. Jones has three years of starting experience. Quinn has two and just missed the whole 2010 season. Fairley has one and some change. Two, Mike Holmgren really likes the quarterback Colt McCoy. He hand selected him. It makes sense he’d want to give him a receiver considering how thin this team is at the position.

Other options:

Robert Quinn- Quinn has the edge over Fairley because he has more starting experience and because defensive ends have more positional value than defensive tackles. There also are no character reasons with Quinn.

Nick Fairley- Fairley is the 3^rd option. I’d be surprised if they took him in this situation.

7. San Francisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

Word out of San Francisco is that they aren’t sold on Blaine Gabbert and they don’t think Robert Quinn or Nick Fairley fit their 3-4 scheme. Jim Harbaugh seems to want to give Alex Smith another shot at starting quarterback. Harbaugh is a great offensive coach. He’ll think he can coach it out of Smith. Eliminating those 3, the easy choice is Amukamara. Nate Clements is old, injury prone, and overpaid. He’ll either be cut or moved to free safety after negotiating a new, smaller contract.

Other options:

Blaine Gabbert- It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gabbert go here. New regimes mean new quarterbacks. Their dislike of Gabbert could be a smokescreen. Their dislike of Fairley and Quinn might not be as I don’t think either do fit their scheme.

Robert Quinn- Their looking for pass rushers for their 3-4 defense. The last time they had a 10+ sacks guy was 2002, the last time they made the playoffs. I still think Quinn is a square peg in a round hole in a 3-4 defense.

Nick Fairley- Fairley is another pass rushing option. Again, Quinn has more positional value and doesn’t have Fairley’s character concerns.

8. Tennessee Titans- QB Jake Locker (Washington)

This one’s not as crazy as it seems. Locker’s stock is rising right now to the point where many consider him to be a top-12 pick lock. Gabbert’s stock is falling and some are saying he could fall as far to 10 to Washington. Some, including NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi, seem to think that Tennessee actually has Locker higher on their board than Gabbert. There’s always at least one pick on the top 10 that makes you scratch your head. This one could be it.

Other options:

Blaine Gabbert- Gabbert is the obvious other option

Nick Fairley- If they like one of these two quarterbacks, they’ll take him. If, for whatever reason, they don’t. Fairley is the pick. Some teams have him off their board for character reasons or because he doesn’t fit their scheme. He fits Tennessee’s scheme like a glove and their defensive line coach Tracy Rocker was Fairley’s defensive line coach at Auburn so he knows how to get the best out of him.

I’ve said I can’t see the Cowboys using the 9^th pick on Tyron Smith before because they’ve never used a first rounder on an offensive lineman in the Jerry Jones era and because their issue is at right tackle, not left tackle, and that can be addressed in another round. Rick Gosselin, of the Dallas News, who is one of the best sources for all things Cowboys related come draft time, also has them taking JJ Watt, which just confirms my belief that Watt will be the pick. Also, Tyron Smith #9 to Dallas no longer seems to be the very popular consensus at this spot like it was a week ago. People are split between Smith and Watt. I’ve got Watt.

Other options:

Tyron Smith- As mentioned above, Smith is the other option if they stay in this spot.

Cameron Jordan- Jordan could be another 5 technique option for them. I haven’t heard his name in this spot much though.

Trade down- Much talk has been made about Dallas trading down. A while ago, Jerry Jones said he had talked with two teams already that were interested in this spot. Dallas seems willing to do so if the board falls right.

10. Washington Redskins- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)

I think this is as far as Gabbert falls. The Redskins’ chances of fixing the situation with Donovan McNabb seems as likely as pigs flying and the chances of Rex Grossman suddenly becoming a franchise quarterback are only slightly better. Quarterback is the big need and Gabbert should get off the board in the top 10 in this weak quarterback class, with so many quarterback needy teams.

Other options:

Cameron Jordan- Of course there was a point where everyone said “this is as far as Brady Quinn falls” or “this is as far as Aaron Rodgers falls” or “this is as far as Jimmy Clausen falls.” Cameron Jordan’s name has been linked to the Redskins at this spot.

Trade down: They have no 3^rd or 4^th rounder and have a need at almost every position. A team like Tampa Bay might want to move up for Robert Quinn or New Orleans for Nick Fairley.

11. Houston Texans- RLB Aldon Smith (Missouri)

Again, I think Robert Quinn in a 3-4 as a square peg in a round hole and I’m not the only one who thinks so. Quinn is more talented than Aldon Smith, but Smith is the much better fit for their 3-4 scheme. Reports are that Houston loves Smith and that he reminds Wade Phillips of DeMarcus Ware, who he had in Dallas.

Other options:

Robert Quinn- Quinn is the more talented player. They may draft talent and try to shove him into the round hole as a square peg.

Cameron Jordan- Most in the know think this will be a front 7 player. Houston has concerns about drafting cornerbacks in the first in back to back years, though they have a need at the position. I haven’t heard Jordan linked to the Texans, but it does make some sense. Jordan is another 3-4 pass rusher and would fit nicely opposite Mario Williams.

12. Minnesota Vikings- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)

The free fall stops for Fairley here. Too many 3-4 teams in the top 10. Too many character concerns. And that run on quarterbacks did him in and he falls out of the top 10. Minnesota would like a quarterback here, but they wouldn’t mind Fairley. Pat Williams is the oldest defensive player in the league and they don’t have a successor. Fairley fits the scheme and he’s worth the risk outside of the top 10.

Other options:

Robert Quinn- Quinn also makes sense here. Everson Griffen can’t stop getting arrested. Ray Edwards has one foot and 3 toes out the door. The Vikings will take BPA between these two, unless they fall in love with a quarterback.

Christian Ponder- If they do fall in love with a quarterback, it would be Christian Ponder. He fits their scheme well and they reportedly really like him. I’m not crazy enough to put 4 quarterbacks in the top 12 however.

13. Detroit Lions- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)

The BPA loving Lions will take about 5 seconds to hand in their cards in this situation. Quinn fits their 4-3 scheme and is at least a top 10, if not top 5 prospect on almost all 4-3 team’s boards. Kyle Vanden Bosch is getting up there in age and Cliff Avril isn’t great on non-passing downs. Quinn fits in rotation with those 2 well and that defensive end rotation compliments their defensive tackle rotation of Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams, and Sammie Lee Hill well. That’s the type of defensive line that makes opposite quarterbacks call in sick.

Other options:

Tyron Smith- If they’re really, really, really high on Tyron Smith, he’d be rated higher on their board than Quinn. Also, if they’re really, really, really high, Tyron Smith would be rated higher on their board than Quinn.

14. St. Louis Rams- DT Corey Liuget (Illinois)

Some people have a defensive end here. I can’t see it. Steve Spagnuolo has done great work with late round ends before in New York and will think he can do the same in St. Louis. As evidence, he drafted 3 ends in the late rounds last year. 2 are still on the roster and I think Spags thinks he can groom one of them to be James Hall’s eventually successor and won’t see the need to use a premium pick on a blue chip rusher, even if Aldon Smith were to fall here. Given that, Corey Liuget makes a lot of sense. They have nothing at defensive tackle other than 34 year old Fred Robbins.

Other options:

Mike Pouncey- Pouncey would fill a need at guard and he would fit the range.

Ryan Kerrigan- If they do go defensive end, Ryan Kerrigan figures to be that defensive end. A lot of 4-3 teams aren’t sold on Cameron Jordan.

Cameron Jordan- Of course, this could be one of the few that is.

Trade down- If the Rams feel they aren’t in love with anyone at this spot, they could trade down. San Diego and Tampa Bay would both love to get ahead of New England for Cameron Jordan.

15. Miami Dolphins- G Mike Pouncey (Florida)

Mark Ingram has been in this spot for most of the season, but concerns about his knee and overall devaluation of his position drop him here. It seems like his range starts at 19 and experts seem to agree with me. If they don’t trade down, Pouncey figures to be the most likely pick. They really need to shore up their interior blocking and Jeff Ireland doesn’t appear sold on Ryan Mallett after his latest interview.

Other options:

Ryan Mallett- Of course, they’ve worked him out seemingly every week and they’ve done their homework on him more than any other team in the league. If they like what they see, they’ll pull the trigger. I think it’s more likely they don’t like what they see. In an interview, Ireland said that he wished Mallett the best in the future. That doesn’t sound like someone who is going to draft him.

Trade down- Trading down makes a ton of sense here. Like at 14, someone could really want to jump New England for Cameron Jordan. Tyron Smith is another candidate to go here if this pick is traded. Miami doesn’t have a 2^nd rounder and would like to be able to get back into the 2^nd round, take a running back, and then take a quarterback like Colin Kaepernick later in the first.

Trade up- If Blaine Gabbert’s there at 9, they could trade up and you know Dallas is selling. They may be in love with Gabbert and feel that a mere 6 spot jump would be worth it.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue)

I can’t remember the last time I had anything different here. If they pass on Ryan Kerrigan, I’ll throw my computer out of the window. Actually, on 2^nd though no, these are the Jaguars we’re talking about. They single handedly destroyed every mock in America by taking Tyson Alualu at 10 last year. Still, I am sticking with Kerrigan. This team loves to build in the trenches and with Aaron Kampman’s future in doubt, they need an end after managing just 40 sacks in the last 2 years. Kerrigan is Gene Smith’s type of player, strong motor, blue collar, team captain, productive in college.

Other options:

Cameron Jordan- Jordan is also a Gene Smith type player and he might want to pair him up with Tyson Alualu, Jordan’s former college teammate, on this defensive line. However, I don’t know if they’ll be sold on him in a 4-3.

Rahim Moore- This one would be straight out of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ “what the fuck” file, but they’ve certainly accessed said file before. Moore is a Gene Smith type player and fills a major need at free safety.

Christian Ponder- They could want a quarterback here and Ponder is a Gene Smith type player.

Go on to 17-32