No time for write ups this week, sorry. 

32(31). Indianapolis Colts 0-10

31(32). Miami Dolphins 2-7

30(28). Washington Redskins 3-6

29(30). St. Louis Rams 2-7

28(23). Kansas City Chiefs 4-5

27(25). Carolina Panthers 2-7

26(29). Arizona Cardinals 3-6

25(24). Cleveland Browns 3-6

24(27). Seattle Seahawks 3-6

23(26). Jacksonville Jaguars 3-6

22(22). Minnesota Vikings 2-7

21(17). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-5

20(19). San Diego Chargers 4-5

19(21). Tennessee Titans 5-4

18(20). Oakland Raiders 5-4

17(18). Denver Broncos 5-5

16(15). Philadelphia Eagles 3-6

15(12). Buffalo Bills 5-4

14(14). New York Giants 6-3

13(10). New York Jets 5-5

12(13). Cincinnati Bengals 6-3

11(9). Atlanta Falcons 5-4

10(8). Detroit Lions 6-3

9(16). Dallas Cowboys 5-4

8(11). Chicago Bears 6-3

7(7). Houston Texans 7-3

6(5). Baltimore Ravens 6-3

5(6). Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3

4(4). New Orleans Saints 7-3

3(3). San Francisco 49ers 8-1

2(2). New England Patriots 6-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 9-0

Last week overall: 8-8

Last week ATS: 7-9 (-1285/-11 units)

Overall picks: 89-57 (.610)

Upset Picks: 3-4 (+170/+1 units)

ATS Picks: 60-81-5 (-8665/-68 units)

Survivor picks: 8-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD)

Upset picks: 14-19 (+1750/+2 units) 

Denver Broncos 20 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick (+240)

Pick against spread: Denver +6 (-110) 5 units (+500)

The Jets had it. Last week was their week to shine. The Patriots were on a 2 game losing streak. The Jets had never lost to the Patriots at home in the Rex Ryan era and they had never lost to the Patriots twice in the regular season in the Rex Ryan era. With a home win over the reeling Patriots, they would have control of the division and could be on their way to their first division title and home playoff game in the Rex Ryan era.

And what happened? Well, the Patriots beat them by 21. Think the Jets are going to be flat this week? The Jets are in an awful situation here. Not only are they coming off a brutal divisional loss in their biggest game of the season, they have to travel on a short week, play in Denver’s thin air against the Broncos’ offense, which, hate it or love it, is the most bizarre offense we’ve seen in the NFL in a long time. The Broncos are at a huge advantage because not only do the Jets not have a ton of tape on it, the Jets don’t have a ton of time to prepare for it either.

Road teams are 3-8 ATS on Thursday since 2010. This makes sense. Not only do they have a shorter week, but they also have to travel and play on the road. Now going to the Jets loss last week, non-divisional favorites of 3+ are 33-46 ATS since 2008 after a divisional loss, 7-11 ATS on the road. The Jets are 2-1 ATS in the Rex Ryan era after a loss to the Patriots, but look at the scores, 17-6 win, 10-6 loss, 24-6 win. They’ve scored 47 total points in those 3 games, more than half of which were against Miami this year and Miami flat out didn’t show up to that game defensively. The Jets still didn’t have a first down until midway through the 2^nd quarter.

The Broncos have been playing better football since Tebow took over. Love him or hate him, you can’t deny they’re playing better. You can debate how much of that actually has to do with him all you want, but they are playing better football. Tebow kept them in all 3 of his starts last year, he almost led a 16 point comeback after being put in midway through the 3^rd against San Diego this year, and in 4 starts this year, he’s 3-1. They might not be great, but they’re good enough to take advantage of the Jets in a really bad situation. Also, this line is ridiculous. The Broncos would be +12 in New York? What?! This is my co-pick of the week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7 (-105) 2 units (+0)

The Ravens have beaten the Steelers twice, the Jets, and the Texans, but have lost to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, and barely beat Arizona. What?! Well, it’s actually quite simple. They just don’t get up for bad teams. Cincinnati is not a bad team. In fact, they almost beat Pittsburgh last week. They might not have won, but just the sheer fact that they hung with them did a lot towards proving they were for real.

The Ravens loss to the Seahawks last week did two things to affect this game. It gave the Ravens extra motivation, as the Ravens are 5-2 ATS off a loss as a favorite since John Harbaugh take over in 2008. It also skewed this line a little bit. The Bengals were +3 at home for Pittsburgh last week, the equivalent of being +9 on the road. They lost ATS. Now they play the Ravens, who beat the Steelers twice. Don’t you think after losing ATS to the Steelers, the Bengals would be at least +9 for the Ravens? Well, because the Ravens lost last week, they’re just +7.

More on the line, the Bengals are missing a key player here. Leon Hall, their top cornerback, went down for the season with an Achilles injury against Pittsburgh. This is a huge loss as the drop off from their #1 to their #2 cornerback is huge. Leon Hall is one of the best in the league. Nate Clements has struggled as the #2 this season. Adam Jones, who hasn’t been a starter in a while, will get the start as the #2 cornerback. I don’t feel the line takes this into account much, if at all.

The Ravens may be in their first of two home games as favorites (San Francisco next week), a situation teams are 28-43 ATS in since 2010. However, when the first game of those 2 is divisional and the 2^nd is non-divisional, the record is 12-10 ATS, which I feel negates that trend. The Ravens will be plenty focused this week for Cincinnati, who would leapfrog them in the divisional standings with a win here and push Baltimore into 3^rd. If they win, they’re in 1^st.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger bet is because Cincinnati did hang with Pittsburgh last week. In fact, they’ve hung with everyone this season. They haven’t lost by more than 7. Also, the Bengals are 15-8 ATS as a dog since 2009. However, the Bengals haven’t been 7 point underdogs yet this season. They haven’t faced a challenge like the Ravens yet. It’s one thing to hang within 7 of the Steelers at home. It’s another thing to hang within 7 of an angry Ravens team in Baltimore, while you’re missing your best defensive player.

Cleveland Browns 13 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Cleveland +1 (-105) 1 unit (+100)

The Browns are terrible. They can’t do anything offensively, scoring a mere 12 points against the Rams, who have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Jaguars aren’t much better. They might have beat the Colts last week, but they didn’t look very impressive doing it. In Blaine Gabbert’s 7 career starts, he’s completed more than 50% of his passes 3 times, thrown for fewer than 100 yards twice, and thrown for fewer than 120 yards 4 times. The Jaguars have a good defense, which is more than the Browns can say, but there isn’t a lot of talent here.

I wanted to pick the Jaguars because I think they’re the better team. They’ve actually been playing alright football of late. They’ve hung within 10 of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Houston and they beat Baltimore, as well as the lowly Colts last week. However, the Jaguars aren’t in a very good spot here. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 48-71 ATS since 2008. The Jaguars play the Texans next week.

The Jaguars are also coming off a game against the Colts. This might not be the same anymore because the Colts suck now, but the Jaguars are just 5-11 ATS under Jack Del Rio after playing the Colts. Jaguars are just 12-24 ATS in non-divisional games since 2008. Divisional games seem to be all that matter to them and though there’s not enough data on this to make any clear assumptions, the fact that this is a non-divisional game between two divisional games doesn’t help their chances, especially since the Browns aren’t very good. There isn’t a clear side right now and I don’t really want to bet on the Browns, but I’m taking the home team for a unit.

Detroit Lions 23 Carolina Panthers 21

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-115) 5 units (-575)

Detroit has their biggest game of the season next week. Think they could be a little flat for the 2-7 Panthers this week? Favorites before being divisional dogs are 48-71 ATS since 2008. Besides, they don’t just play any team as divisional dogs next week. They play the Packers. Teams are 1-6 ATS before playing the Packers this season, as long as there isn’t a bye in between. It’s also a Thanksgiving Game. The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 years before their annual Thanksgiving Game.

On top of that, this is a classic sandwich game. The Lions are favorites before and after being underdogs. Favorites after losing as a dog and before being dogs are 45-68 ATS since 2008. Furthermore, this is actually a divisional sandwich. The Lions are non-divisional favorites, after losing as divisional dogs and before being divisional dogs. Teams in this situation are 5-11 ATS since 2008, 9-18 ATS since 2002.

The Lions are playing Cam Newton and the Panthers. A few weeks ago, Cam Newton and the Panthers were known for being the kings of backdoor covers. Cam Newton started out his career 4-0-1 before a recent 1-3 stretch. That 1-3 stretch was likely caused by the Panthers being favorites in 3 straight games. Carolina is 3-1-1 ATS as underdogs this year, with that one loss coming in Atlanta by 14 in a game where the yardage totals were equal and the Panthers actually led by 3 going into the 4^th quarter. Besides, I think the Panthers are being undervalued this week because of their horrible loss last week. Bad teams have struggled off their bye this season, probably the reason for their loss last week.

On top of that, the Lions just aren’t playing good football right now. They’re not getting Jahvid Best this week most likely and they’re 1-3 since their 5-0 start, including a 4 interception performance by Matt Stafford last week. Speaking of Stafford, he’s playing with a broken finger and throwing to a banged up Calvin Johnson.

Even when they were 5-0, they weren’t that impressive. They needed comebacks to beat Dallas and Minnesota and they weren’t that impressive looking in their win over Chicago. I’m not picking the Panthers to pull the upset on the road, but they’ve hung within a touchdown of the Bears, Saints, and Packers this season. I think they can do the same this week against the Lions. This is my other co-pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 37 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -14 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Green Bay is just in a zone right now. Yes, they’ve struggled a bit on the road, letting Minnesota, Carolina, and San Diego hang within a touchdown of them. Yes, they’ve struggled with elite offenses, surrendering 69 points in 2 games to the only two elite offenses they’ve faced, New Orleans and San Diego. But, guess what? Neither of those situations are in play here.

The Packers are at home. How good have they been at home? They’ve won 4 games by an average of about 23 points per game. Yes, they’ve played Minnesota, St. Louis, and Denver in 3 of those games, but they’ve won those 3 by an average of 28.3 points per game, covering as double digit favorites on each occasion.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just doesn’t look good. They were able to hang with a lot of teams last year, but they’ve been blown out in 2 of their games this year, losing big time to Houston and San Francisco, so it’s not like their immune from being blown out any more. Their offense just looks out of sync and they’re missing key players on a young defense that wasn’t all that great to begin with.

Rarely will you see me put more than 2 units on a double touchdown favorite, but I’m doing it here. The Packers are rolling right now off a huge MNF win. Since 2002, teams that win by 21+ on MNF are 23-10 ATS, 13-5 ATS when that MNF game was divisional. The Packers are 31-15 ATS since 2009, including 15-6 ATS at home, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home.

They have already covered 3 times as double digit home favorites this season, blowing out crappy teams in the process. They might not win this one by 28 points like they’ve been averaging, but the Buccaneers aren’t very good and look due for another at least 14+ point loss, probably 20+ point loss.

Buffalo Bills 27 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+110) 5 units (-500)

Pick against spread: Buffalo +1 (+100) 0 units

The Bills started the year looking like this would be the year they would finally make the playoffs. They began the year 3-0, beating the Patriots for the first time since 2003 and though they had a hiccup against Cincinnati, they bounced back well to beat the Eagles and improve to 4-1. Since then, the Bills are 1-3, losing their last two by an embarrassing 71-18. Ironically enough, before that two game stretch, they gave Ryan Fitzpatrick an out of nowhere 6 year 60 million dollar contract extension. He’s responded by going 35 of 62 for 337 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 5 picks.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, seem to have found their groove by winning 2 in a row. Or at least that’s what people seem to think. Remember who they’ve beaten. They’ve beaten the Redskins and the Chiefs, two teams that are currently in the bottom 5 of my Power Rankings. Meanwhile, yes, the Bills have looked awful, but they’ve played tough teams. I think they should be able to bounce back here against a Miami team that isn’t very good and is looking pretty overrated by Vegas.

Miami is a terrible home team under Tony Sparano. I know they won here last week, but since Sparano took over in 2008, the Dolphins are just 8-21 ATS at home, as opposed to 19-10 ATS on the road. Including last year, the Dolphins are 2-10 straight up at home. Since 2008, they are 2-11 ATS at home as favorites, 4-13 ATS as favorites in general. They beat every single one of those trends last week, but they’re still strong trends and they’re not playing Washington this week. They’re playing a Buffalo team that blew out Washington earlier a few weeks ago. One more trend, Buffalo is an underdog off a loss of 29+. Teams are 62-39 ATS in this situation since 2002.

This line suggests that Buffalo and Miami are basically equal, which is ridiculous, especially considering Miami’s struggles at home. The reasons this isn’t a 5 unit spread bet are twofold. Miami has been playing well in their last 2, as opposed to Buffalo, who has been doing the opposite. Also, Buffalo plays the Jets next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 48-71 ATS since 2008. I know they’re not favorites here, but road dogs of less than 3 are 5-8 ATS in that situation as well. But I’m still putting 4 units on Buffalo. Well, not really. Instead of putting 4 on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting it all on the money line and hoping the Dolphins don’t win by 1.

Oakland Raiders 23 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Oakland -1 (-115) 1 unit (+100)

I wanted to take Oakland in this one because I think Minnesota could be really flat off of last week’s loss to the Packers. Teams that lose by 21+ on MNF are 10-22 ATS the next week since 2002, 6-12 ATS after a divisional loss. The Raiders are also in their 2^nd straight road game, a situation teams are 152-116 ATS in since 2008.

However, we’re getting no line value here. A week ago this line would have been maybe -1 in favor of Minnesota, probably -1.5. That means this line has shifted 2-3 points in the last week. Is that deserved? I don’t think so. Yes, the Raiders beat the Chargers, but the Chargers suck. The Chiefs beat them and we all know that they’re not very good. The only teams the Chargers have beaten are the Donovan McNabb Minnesota Vikings, the Chad Henne Miami Dolphins, the Kyle Orton Denver Broncos, and the Chiefs, who get revenge on them and none of those teams lost to the Chargers by more than 10 points.

Meanwhile, the Vikings looked awful last week against Green Bay, but Green Bay is just really, really good. I don’t think enough happened for this line to legitimately shift 3 whole points in a week. Besides, I had the Vikings as one of the most underrated teams in the league going into last week. They had been playing better football with Ponder under center and even with McNabb under center, they only lost one game by double digits.

As strange as it sounds, losing to the Packers by 38 shouldn’t change that. The Packers are that good. The Vikings have been playing much better football with Ponder under center. You just can’t tell because somehow Ponder got stuck playing the Packers in two of his first 3 career starts. On top of all this, the Raiders are just 1-4 ATS since 2003 as road favorites.

All this makes a tough decision. The trends say the Raiders are the right side, but we’re getting absolutely no line value with them and I think the Vikings are still one of the league’s most underrated squads. I’m picking the Raiders because I think they can win straight up here and because I don’t want to bet on what could be a very deflated Viking team after last week’s loss, but I’m not confident in either side here.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: Dallas -9 (+115) 1 unit (-100)

The Redskins suck. It’s really that simple. I can’t tell who is worse between John Beck and Rex Grossman. John Beck checks down every other snap and can’t complete anything longer than 5 yards and Rex Grossman is erratic with turnovers. Tim Hightower is gone as well and neither Ryan Torain nor Roy Helu can run the ball. Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson are both out at receiver as well and they have several injuries on the offensive line.

I would really not be surprised if they didn’t win another game. It’s just a shame they got out to that hot 3-1 start because it cost them a chance at Andrew Luck. They might deserve him more than anyone else in the league. There aren’t any prevalent trends here, though home divisional dogs of 3+ are 42-56 ATS since 2008. I’m just not betting on Washington.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 17

Pick against spread: Arizona +9.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Cardinals were 1-6 with Kevin Kolb and are now 2-0 with John Skelton. Skelton hasn’t played well, but he’s been decent enough for this team to win against the Rams and the Eagles. The 49ers will be a tougher test, but I still like Arizona’s chances to cover here for several reasons.

For one, this is a divisional revenge game for the Cardinals. Dogs of 7+ are 39-28 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 21+ since 2002. The 49ers embarrassed the Cardinals week 17 of last year. Arizona is also in a good situation in their 2^nd of 2 road games as dogs of 7+. Teams in that situation are 48-26 ATS since 2002, 8-2 ATS after covering in their first game.

Meanwhile, while this will be a divisional revenge game for Arizona, it will mean absolutely nothing to the 49ers who have basically already clinched the division. The 49ers primary objective right now is to prove their doubters wrong. Beating Arizona isn’t going to do that. However, they play Baltimore next week. They’ll be much more focused on that one than this one, especially after beating the Giants last week in a thriller. Divisional favorites of 7+ before being dogs are 32-56 ATS since 2002.

Besides, it’s not like the 49ers are blowing teams out. They struggled to put away both the Browns and the Redskins. Terrible Washington hung within 8 of them, while Cleveland hung within 10, but the 49ers needed a late field goal to even do that. They’re not a team meant to blow other teams out and it shows. Arizona is at the very least no worse than Cleveland and Washington. Also, as horrific as Arizona has been, they’ve only lost by double figures twice this year and both of those times were with Kevin Kolb. As I said earlier, they’re playing better with John Skelton.

St. Louis Rams 24 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: St. Louis -1 (-120) 3 units (-360)

Since acquiring Brandon Lloyd, the Rams have been a better team. In his 2^nd game with the team, the Rams beat the Saints for their first win of the season. In his 2^nd game with Sam Bradford, the Rams beat the Browns for their 2^nd win of the season. It took him a little bit to get into a rhythm with first AJ Feeley and Sam Bradford, but now that Bradford is in a better rhythm with him, the Rams offense looks, at the very least significantly less miserable than it did when they started 0-7.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a home win over Baltimore, which seems to have inflated this line a little bit. Baltimore may be a good team, but they’ve also lost to Jacksonville, Tennessee, and almost Arizona so I don’t know how much credit you can give the Seahawks for their win last week. Besides, now they have to go on the road, where they’re a miserable 12-26 ATS since 2007. That’s opposed to 25-13 ATS at home. Besides, NFC West teams are 9-18 ATS on the road in the division since 2009.

The Rams are in a bit of a tough situation in their first of two as home favorites. Teams are 28-43 ATS in this situation since 2010. However, I’m still taking them here. I don’t like Seattle’s chance to win straight up here on the road against St. Louis, who was a very good home team last year when they were a solid team.

They’re playing better football of late and are starting to look more like the solid 7-9 bunch they were last season. I think they’re underrated because of their record at 2-7, but remember how brutal their early season schedule was and now they’ve gotten better lately. This line suggests that the Seahawks are 2 points better than them and I don’t agree with that and that doesn’t even take into account how bad the Seahawks and NFC West teams are on the road in general.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Tennessee Titans 17 Survivor Pick (8-2 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD)

Pick against spread: Atlanta Falcons -6 (-105) 1 unit (+0)

There are two opposing sets of trends here. On one hand, the Falcons are really good at home. Matt Ryan is 17-10 ATS at home and has only lost 5 games at home in his career, 4 times since his rookie season. Those 4 games were all against teams that would eventually win 11+ games, assuming the 2011 Saints and 2011 Packers do so, which they almost definitely will. The Titans? They’d be lucky to win 8. They hardly fit that group.

The Falcons may be coming off an emotional home loss to the Saints in overtime thanks to one of the most bonehead coaching decisions of all time by Mike Smith. However, the Falcons have responded well after losing in the Mike Smith era. Like really well. Like 15-3 ATS well.

On the flip side, Tennessee is in their 2^nd straight road game as underdogs, a situation teams are 74-50 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, the Falcons are in their first of 2 home games as favorites, with Minnesota coming to town next week. This is a situation teams are 28-43 ATS in since 2010. These trends are actually combinable. Since 2002, home teams in their 1^st of 2 as favorites are 34-57 ATS against teams in their 2^nd of 2 road games as underdogs.

Ultimately, I’m going to side with the earlier set of trends. Trends on an individual team level are more powerful and that 15-3 ATS trend with the Falcons off a loss is the most powerful of all. The Falcons haven’t had any trouble at home with bad or average teams and they never seem to have any negative residual effects after a loss. This is only a 1 unit bet however because so many different things are conflicting here.

Chicago Bears 23 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego +3.5 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

I don’t trust either of these teams. 5 weeks ago, the Bears were a mess. Now they look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Jay Cutler is playing the best extended stretch of football of his career. Matt Forte looks like a top 5 running back. Earl Bennett has stepped up as Cutler’s favorite target. This offensive line can actually block and Mike Martz hasn’t made any moronic play calling in a long time. I don’t know if I buy this. How long can they keep this up?

On the flip side, the Chargers always get better as the season goes on, but what if they just don’t this year. Philip Rivers has never played this poorly and if you forget history and just look at this season, they’re a 4-5 team on a 4 game losing streak that has beaten the Donovan McNabb led Vikings, the Kyle Orton led Broncos, the Chad Henne led Dolphins, and the Chiefs, who got revenge on them, and they haven’t won any of those games by more than 10 points. That’s pretty terrible, but at the same time, what if this is the week they’re actually good?

I don’t have a good enough read on either team to make a strong bet either way. The Bears could look awesome again or they could revert to crap. The Chargers, meanwhile, could continue playing like crap or they could finally turn it on and become awesome. I’m taking the points because this line is bigger than 3 points and also because of Philip Rivers’ awesome career ATS record as an underdog. Excluding games against his arch enemy Tom Brady, Rivers is 10-6 ATS as an underdog, 8-2 ATS after week 8. However, I don’t really feel strongly either way. Anything could happen in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick (+200)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +5 (-110) 5 units (-500)

This line opened at -3 when it looked like Michael Vick could play. I didn’t immediately bet on either side because I like Philadelphia this week regardless of whether or not Vick plays (more on that later, obviously) and I was hoping as it looked less and less likely Vick would play that the line would increase. The line has increased slightly, going up to -5 as it looks like Vince Young is going to get the start for Philadelphia. The line has been steady there for most of the day and Vick is all but ruled out so it doesn’t look like this line is going to get any higher. Besides, if Vegas really had any real uncertainty about Vick’s availability, there wouldn’t even be a line posted.

I was hoping for more than a 2 point swing with Vick being ruled out, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think a mere 2 point swing is fair. The mere 2 point swing could also mean this is a trap line (more on that later). The common belief right now seems to be, the Eagles are 3-6 and now Vick is out. They’re screwed. However, it’s not like Vick is what’s holding this team together. He’s not playing particularly well right now. I’d say he’s more of the problem than anything right now. He’s clearly not healthy right now and teams have figured out how to exploit his weaknesses, something they couldn’t do very well last season.

On top of that, Vick just isn’t as motivated as he was last year. I’m not calling him unmotivated or anything, but his motivation is just not at the same level it was last season. Last season he had so much to prove in his first year as a starter after being released from jail. Now that he’s in his 2^nd year and he earned back a huge contract, that same level of motivation just isn’t there, which makes sense.

Vince Young, on the other hand, is the opposite. He’s very motivated. He didn’t get the starting job he was looking for in the offseason, but if he puts together a couple strong starts this season in relief of Vick, that could be a different story this offseason. He could very well get a starting job or at least a crack at a starting job. He’s also fully healthy and he can do some of the same things Vick can do, move around in the pocket, extend plays, pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, and, of course, he’s got his cannon arm. He’s not the most accurate or fundamentally sound quarterback, but neither is Vick. I don’t think the drop off is going to be that huge.

I really like Vince Young and I think he’s deserving of a starting job. I really believe he never got his fair chance in Tennessee. Jeff Fisher never wanted him. Bud Adams made him draft him and thus Fisher would always bench him at the first sign of any trouble. Even still, Young’s winning percentage in Tennessee was roughly .650, where they were under .500 when he didn’t start and that includes a random 12-3 year by Kerry Collins.

Besides, Andy Reid has had success in the past with backup quarterbacks. Andy Reid makes quarterbacks look better than they are. Look at former McNabb backups AJ Feeley, Jeff Garcia and Kevin Kolb. They did well in relief of McNabb in Philadelphia, but when other teams traded for them or signed them, they stunk. Hell, look at McNabb. He stunk once he left Philadelphia.

This is a last stand game for Philadelphia. Contrary to popular belief, they are not definitely out of it. They’re about 95% out of it, but not 100%. If they win here, they’re 2 back in the division with 6 to go. Not impossible. If they lose here, they’re basically 5 out with 6 to go as they’ll be 4 back and they won’t have the tiebreaker. That’s pretty impossible.

They won in a last stand type game when they were 1-4 and needed to beat Washington. I think they have one of their best games, if not their best game of the season here for that reason. I also expect, as we’ve seen before, Vince Young’s supporting cast to step up and play 110% to compensate for the loss of Vick. Veteran teams typically do well in their first game without their starting quarterback and as I’ve said before, this is especially true in Philadelphia under Andy Reid.

In case they needed any more motivation, this is a divisional revenge game. Teams trying to avenge a loss as 7+ divisional favorites are 33-25 ATS since 2002 and 92-65 ATS since 1989. As underdogs, teams in that situation are 10-6 ATS since 2002 and 23-11 ATS since 1989. Andy Reid in particular is awesome in divisional revenge games, going 25-12 ATS in that situation since he took over in 1999.

Now let’s move onto the Giants. This game won’t mean nearly as much to them as it does to Philadelphia. If Philadelphia loses, they’re done. If the Giants lose, they’re still 2 up on the division. Obviously they won’t completely overlook their division rival Eagles, but they won’t have the same level of motivation as the Eagles. Furthermore, this is a sandwich game for them. They’re favorites after losing as underdogs and before being underdogs. Teams in this situation are 45-68 ATS since 2008. The Giants lost as dogs in San Francisco last week and head to New Orleans next week.

Besides, the Giants always seem to blow a strong start to the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over, they are 47-17 straight up in the first half of the season and 25-33 straight up in the second half of the season. Weeks 9-12 are especially brutal for them, as they are 10-18 ATS under Tom Coughlin in those 4 weeks since he took over in 2004. What better way to blow a strong start to the season than by losing here in a game that they could have finished off their division rival Eagles with a win, especially since it’s the Eagles. Tom Coughlin is a mere 1-5 ATS as favorites against the Eagles as head coach of the Giants.

Finally, as I mentioned earlier, there’s a good chance this is a trap line. The definition of a trap line is simple. A trap line is whenever all the trends say one side, but there is absolutely no line value and the public is pounding the side opposite of the trends, yet the line isn’t moving. Vegas knows about trends. They’re not stupid. They know the trends are saying Philadelphia this week so they’re keeping the line small in hopes that everyone bets on New York and it’s working. A large majority of the money is on New York. That explains why the line only moved 2 points even though Vick is out.

This is my 3^rd and final co-pick of the week. I expect the Eagles to give 110% here to compensate for the loss of Michael Vick, who is overrated, to get revenge on the Giants, who embarrassed them as underdogs earlier this season, and most importantly to save their season. Besides, Andy Reid coached teams always do better as the season goes on. The Giants are in an opposite spot. They always get worse as the season goes on and they struggle when they have chances to put teams away and when they’re favored against the Eagles. This game also won’t mean nearly as much to them with New Orleans next week and having lost to the 49ers last week in demoralizing fashion.

New England Patriots 34 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: New England -14.5 (-110) 3 units

I find it ridiculous that people wrote Brady and Belichick off after 2 losses. There have been so many times people have written the Patriots off, only for them to come out the next week and destroy the opposition. They did so last week beating the Jets as underdogs by 21 points. People need to learn from history.

Going forward with learning from history, if history is any indication, the Patriots will destroy the Chiefs again this week. Remember what the Patriots did last season after losing to the Browns. They beat the Steelers as underdogs and then didn’t drop a single regular season game the rest of the way. They play nothing but sub .500 teams for the rest of the season, until a week 17 matchup with the fading Bills, who could easily be under .500 by then. They could easily go 13-3 starting with this week. Belichick is like an elephant. He never forgets. Not only does he have an awesome ATS record as underdogs, since he took over in 2000, the Patriots are 30-16 ATS the week after being underdogs.

Besides, the Chiefs suck. They’ve played two good teams all season (the Bills and the Lions) and neither of those teams are that great. They still lost both of those games by 34 or more points. The Patriots are their toughest opponent yet. They should have no trouble blowing them out. Hell, the Dolphins blew them out. The Raiders blew them out late last season, as did the Ravens in the playoffs, and all those games were with Matt Cassel in the lineup.

Cassel is out this week, for the rest of the season actually, and I really wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs just gave up. They’re 4-5, after losses to the Broncos and the Chiefs, and now they’re missing their starting quarterback, on top of key contributors like Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, and Eric Berry. Like with the Packers, this is one of the rare occasions where I will put more than 2 units on a double touchdown favorite.

LV Hilton Super Contest: Denver +6, Philadelphia +6.5, Carolina +7, Buffalo +2, Arizona +9.5 (22-28) 

32(32). Miami Dolphins 1-7

They’re still lower than the Colts because I think, at the end of the day, the Dolphins will have 1 win and the Colts will have two. Look at the rest of the Dolphins’ schedule. Their only realistic chance at another win is this week against Washington in Miami, but remember, the Dolphins are 1-10 at home in the last 2 years.

31(31). Indianapolis Colts 0-9

Meanwhile, the Colts have home games against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Carolina left, as well as a trip to Jacksonville. They can find 2 wins in there. If they lose to Jacksonville this week, then we can talk about this team potential as a 1 or 0 win team, but I think they win this week. Blaine Gabbert might actually be worse than Curtis Painter and Indianapolis’ fierce pass rush will actually serve some purpose this week as the Jaguars don’t have the offense to pull away from them.

30(29). St. Louis Rams 1-7

Brandon Lloyd has brought their number of legitimate pass catchers up from 0 to 1, so hopefully they can keep him. I know they lost last week to Arizona, but that was more on their special teams. The Rams definitely look better in their past two games as they’ll only get better as Sam Bradford gets healthier and more in sync with Brandon Lloyd. Remember, they have games against Arizona, Seattle (2), and Cleveland left, plus a week 17 home game against San Francisco, who could be resting its starters. They could still get 3-4 wins.

29(26). Arizona Cardinals 2-6

The Cardinals are now 1-0 with John Skelton and 1-6 with Kevin Kolb. Quarterback controversy? Probably not since John Skelton didn’t even play well in a special teams led win against the lowly Rams, which featured John Skelton taking TWO safeties. Something tells me they won’t have the same kind of luck this week against a probably pissed off Philadelphia team.

28(28). Washington Redskins 3-5

I like their chances this week in Miami because Miami sucks at home and sucks in general, but will they get another win after that? Maybe one divisional one, maybe one random one, maybe, but this team still looks like a 5 win team that would be right in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes if they didn’t randomly get out to a hot start.

27(24). Seattle Seahawks 2-6

I literally stared at my computer screen for 10 minutes to come up with something interesting to say about the Seahawks. I can’t. They’re boring and they suck.

26(30). Jacksonville Jaguars 2-6

On bye last week.

25(27). Carolina Panthers 2-6

On bye last week.

24(22). Cleveland Browns 3-5

I would rant about how much the Browns suck, but this guy does a better job of it. They may have 3 wins, but they were against the Dolphins, the Colts, and the Seahawks. They’re averaging 5.7 yards per pass and 3.1 yards per carry and that’s not including the 20 sacks that Colt McCoy has taken. Their defense is only slightly better by default, but considering they couldn’t tackle at all last week, that’s more of a knock on their putrid offense than anything.

23(21). Kansas City Chiefs 4-4

The Chiefs were exposed last week as overrated frauds by losing by 28 at home to Miami. They’ve won 4 games against the 2-6 Vikings, the 0-9 Colts, the Jason Campbell-less Raiders, and the choking Chargers by a combined 101-61, but lost to the Bills, Lions, Chargers, and Dolphins by a combined 140-30. Ouch!

22(23). Minnesota Vikings 2-6

On bye last week.

21(19). Tennessee Titans 4-4

4 games ago, the Titans looked like they could win the division. Now, after blowout losses to Houston and Pittsburgh, as well as a win over the lowly Colts, and a home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Titans are at 4-4 and look like one of the worst 4-4 teams in the league. Their 4 wins are against Indianapolis, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Denver. Baltimore is the only good team in the bunch and they also lost to Jacksonville, who, by the way, beat Tennessee. It’s now looking like the Titans might not even win against Carolina next week.

20(20). Oakland Raiders 5-4

The Raiders’ win over the Chargers is not as impressive as it seems. The Chargers just aren’t good anymore. Too many things wrong at once. The Chargers remind me if the 2010 Cowboys, finally bottoming out after years of underachieving under an awful head coach. But the Raiders are still in first place in this crappy division so there’s that. I just don’t trust Carson Palmer. One good game against an overrated Chargers division doesn’t change that.

19(10). San Diego Chargers 4-5

I have a feeling the Chargers just aren’t going to hit midseason form. Philip Rivers has never struggled like this before. I think we’re past wondering if he’s injured or not. We should be wondering if he died and was replaced with a look alike. I’m serious. He does know he doesn’t have to force it into double coverage on every throw right? Their 4 wins, Miami (1-7), Denver (pre-Tebow), Kansas City (an overrated 4-4), Minnesota (pre-Ponder).

18(25). Denver Broncos 3-5

Where are all the Tebow haters now? A young quarterback can’t have one bad game. His stats aren’t pretty, but he can pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, make clutch throws, open things up for his running game, and most importantly, motivate his teammates. He’s not the best passer and he’s not going to put up amazing passing stats, but he’ll win you games. The Broncos’ division sucks. I have them winning the division. Calling it now.

17(16). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-4

2 games ago they sat atop the division, at 4-2, holding the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Atlanta. Now they’re 4-4 and New Orleans has evened the score and jumped out to a game and a half lead. I don’t think they’ll catch them for the division and even worse, the Buccaneers dropped one to the Bears, which gives the Bears the tiebreaker in the very possible situation that these two teams finish tied for the 6^th and final playoff spot in the NFC. Needless to say, their game this week against Houston is huge.

16(17). Dallas Cowboys 4-4

The division still isn’t out of reach for them. The Giants may have a 2 game lead, but the Cowboys do play them twice before the season is over and the Giants, who normally struggle in the 2^nd half of the season, have a brutal 2^nd half schedule this year. However, they need to get their act together. One week they get destroyed by the Eagles, who were proven to be frauds the very next week by Chicago, and then they don’t look very good in beating the Seahawks. The Seahawks are a terrible road team that deserved to lose by more than 10 points given how many more yards the Cowboys had, but the Cowboys shot themselves in the foot countless times and let them hang around. Now Miles Austin is out with an injury.

15(9). Philadelphia Eagles 3-5

The Eagles get better as the season goes on and the Giants have a brutal 2^nd half schedule and tend to struggle in the 2^nd half anyway, but a 3 game lead is a lot to make up. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles still won this division, but they have to count on the Giants getting at least 9 wins which means the Eagles will have to go 6-2 from here on out. They have the talent and Andy Reid coached teams do get better as the season goes on, but I’m putting New York slightly ahead of them for now. Needless to say, their matchup in a few weeks against the Giants, who beat them earlier, is going to be huge. If they lose that one, I think their season is over.

14(18). New York Giants 6-2

Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the Giants are 47-17 (.734) in the first half of the season and 24-32 (.429) in the 2^nd half of the season. They started 6-2 last year and missed the playoffs at 10-6. Now they have a brutal 2^nd half schedule, @ San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, @ New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, @ Dallas, vs. Washington, @ NY Jets, vs. Dallas. I wouldn’t give them the division yet because I could definitely see them finishing 9-7, but with the Eagles losing last week and the Cowboys struggling to find consistency, the Giants have to be the favorites at this point. Even 9 wins could win this division.

13(13). Cincinnati Bengals 6-2

I’m conservatively ranking the Bengals here. In 2 weeks, they could be a lot lower or a lot, lot higher with Pittsburgh and Baltimore next on their schedule. The Bengals have yet to beat a proven veteran team, but that doesn’t mean they can’t. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them beat either Pittsburgh and/or Baltimore, but for now, I’m ranking those two veteran squads above the Bengals in the division and making the Bengals prove themselves.

12(6). Buffalo Bills 5-3

Losing at home to the Jets obviously was a big hit to their division title and even playoff hopes. The Patriots and the Jets are both more veteran than them and the Jets flat out destroyed them last week. Is there room for 3 AFC East teams in the playoffs? Maybe, but the Bills will have to play better than they did last week to deserve one.

11(15). Chicago Bears 5-3

The Bears have come a long way since losing to the Lions in Detroit 3 games ago. Since then, they’ve won 3 straight beating two legitimate teams, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, in the process. Their other win was a 29 point win over a Minnesota team that hasn’t lost by more than 7 all season, with the exception of that game. Their offensive line has been fixed and Earl Bennett is healthy and looks like a legitimate consistent target for Jay Cutler. We’ve seen this from them before and they’ve come back to prove their believers wrong, but right now I trust them more than I trusted them last year. I expect them to enact their revenge on the Lions this week in Chicago.

10(12). New York Jets 5-3

Like the Bears, the Jets are another team that a lot of people wrote off at 2-3, but with wins over the Dolphins, Chargers, and Bills, the Jets are looking better. The reason they’re higher than the Bears is because their early seasons struggles could be tied to injuries, particularly to center Nick Mangold so unless he gets hurt again, I don’t think there are any chances of them relapsing, whereas Chicago doesn’t have me so convinced. Like the Bears, the Jets have a chance for a revenge game this week against New England, but Brady and company haven’t lost 3 straight since 2002 so forgive me if I don’t like their chances. However, if they win that one, they’re in the driver’s seat in the division.

9(14). Atlanta Falcons 5-3

Atlanta was on bye again last week as they played the Colts, so there’s nothing to talk about here. Obviously, their game with the Saints this week is huge. They’ve already lost to the Buccaneers so if they lose to the Saints, they’re 0-2 against legitimate playoff contenders in their division. This game is especially important because it’s at home. If they lose this one, I really don’t like their chances to settle the score in New Orleans later this season, even though they won their last year.

8(8). Detroit Lions 6-2

On bye last week.

7(7). Houston Texans 6-3

The Texans have won 3 in a row for just the 4^th time in Matt Schaub’s career, but who did they beat? The Titans, the Browns, and the Jaguars. Not exactly the most talented group of teams. Still, they’re in the drivers’ seat in the awful AFC South and should be able to sleep walk to the division title. Honestly, if they don’t win another game, there’s still a 50/50 shot they win this division. Who else wins more than 6 games? Tennessee? Maybe? I’m interested to see how they response to that this week in Tampa Bay. This could be a classic let down game for this team.

6(3). Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3

I’m ranking Pittsburgh below Baltimore because they’ve lost twice to them. They played well enough to win against Baltimore last week, but they didn’t win because Joe Flacco was just a little bit better. This week they can take out their angry on the young Bengals, at least they better hope they can. The Bengals already have a better record than them somehow. They don’t want to lose head to head to them on top of that.

5(11). Baltimore Ravens 6-2

This looks like a classic, play to the level of the competition type team. They lose to Tennessee and Jacksonville and barely beat Arizona, but they’ve beaten Houston, Pittsburgh (twice), and the Jets. The good news for them is there are no bad teams in the playoffs, which looks like where they’re heading after securing the tiebreaker over the Steelers. The bad news is, we still have yet to see back to back good performances by Joe Flacco all season. Seriously, look up his stats. You don’t win a Super Bowl if you’re that inconsistent.

4(5). New Orleans Saints 6-3

The Saints didn’t prove a whole lot by beating Tampa Bay at home. This team still lost to St. Louis at St. Louis. They also lost to Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay and barely beat Carolina in Carolina. Last year, they lost road games to Seattle and Arizona and had trouble on the road against Cincinnati and San Francisco. This still isn’t a good road team and the road to the Super Bowl appears to go through Lambeau Field and possibly Candlestick Park in the NFC. The Saints have a chance to prove themselves on the road this week in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan has a career 22-4 record (2-1 against the Saints).

3(4). San Francisco 49ers 7-1

I wanted to put the 49ers 2^nd, but there should be some sort of rule about putting an Alex Smith quarterbacked team 2^nd. That just feels illegal. On top of that, the 49ers haven’t beat a good veteran team yet. Their 3 most impressive wins were against Detroit, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay, 3 young teams. They have their first good, veteran test this week as the New York Giants come to town.

2(2). New England Patriots 5-3

Yes, they’re still here. To everyone who is writing them off, what happened last time you did that? Exactly. Look at their remaining schedule and tell me how they lose more than 1 more game. They have the Jets, the Chiefs, the Eagles, the Colts, Redskins, the Dolphins, the Broncos, and the Bills. I see 3 legitimate football teams on there, the Jets, Eagles, and Bills. However, losing to the Jets would mean losing 3 in a row, something they haven’t done since 2002, and losing to the Bills would mean going 0-2 against a divisional opponent, something they haven’t done since 2000, when Brady wasn’t even the quarterback. Besides, how good are the Eagles even?

Besides, after the Packers, there is no clear cut #2 team in the league this year. You can make arguments for a number of teams, but you can make counter arguments against all of them. The Ravens, their quarterback hasn’t had back to back good games all year and they’ve lost to Jacksonville and Tennessee. The Steelers, they lost to the Ravens, twice. The Patriots, they lost to the Steelers. The 49ers, they haven’t beaten a good veteran team. The Saints, they suck on the road. The Texans, do you really trust Matt Schaub? The Lions, they’re inexperienced and 1-2 in their last 3. I’m putting the Patriots at #2 because they have the most proven head coach/quarterback combo of the bunch. That’s the best tiebreaker I can come up with.

1(1). Green Bay Packers 8-0

Of course none of that really matters because the Packers are so much better than everyone. Yes, they have given up 69 points in their only two games against legitimate high powered offenses, but when you’re on pace to score the most points in a season (550) of any team other than the 2007 New England Patriots or the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, you don’t need to play a ton of defense. Aaron Rodgers is on pace to go 384-530 (72.5%) for 5238 yards (10.0 YPA), and 48 touchdowns to 6 picks. Quarterbacks aren’t supposed to do that. Besides, thanks to the lockout, there are fewer elite teams that any season in recent memory. You can make an argument the Packers are the only one. I listed the flaws with all of the teams under the Patriots’ write up. That’s not normal.

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 5-9 (-1965/-16 units)

Overall picks: 81-49 (.623)

Upset Picks: 3-1 (+1180/+5 units)

ATS Picks: 53-72-5 (-7380/-57 units)

Survivor picks: 8-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL)

Upset picks: 14-19 (+1750/+2 units) 

Recap: It wasn’t my worst week, but I didn’t make money either. I am now down $5630 on the year, which is almost as much as I won last year. I don’t really have any new ideas except keep at it. This is a weird year. Vegas is losing money too. Nothing is consistent. Maybe people just shouldn’t listen to me until I start winning or until next year. The lockout has screwed everything over.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick (8-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL)

Pick against spread: San Diego -7 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Raiders suck. I know they’re 4-4, but they suck. They’re 0-2 without Jason Campbell, losing to divisional rivals with worse records at the time, the Chiefs and the Broncos, at home. Carson Palmer figures to get better as the weeks go on and he gets more into shape and gets a better grasp of the playbook, but the problem is he just wasn’t that good last year. The Raiders traded for him thinking they’d get the 2006 Carson Palmer and they got the 2010 Carson Palmer, only worse because he’s out of shape and new to the system and the organization. I don’t think Vegas is really fully taking into account how awful the Raiders have become without Jason Campbell.

Meanwhile, the Chargers looked a lot better last week. One week after losing in Kansas City to the Chiefs in embarrassing fashion (botched snap in field goal range late in a tied game), the Chargers returned home and hung within 7 of the Packers even though Philip Rivers threw 2 pick sixes and Aaron Rodgers played out of his mind once again. I picked the Chargers to cover last week because they’re better after week 8 and they’re better at home. They didn’t cover (by 1 point), but they looked a ton better than they did against Kansas City.

I think that should only continue. The Chargers are 29-17 ATS during week 10 or later with Philip Rivers, including 3-1 ATS on week 10 specifically. They’re also at home here. Philip Rivers is 28-20 ATS at home in his career, not a sizable trend, but it’s notable, especially since the Chargers will be at home on Thursday Night. Home teams really have the advantage on Thursday Night, especially last year, which makes sense because the road team has a short week to prepare and has to travel. Last year, home teams were 8-2 ATS on Thursday Night.

Finally, the Chargers lost twice to the Raiders last year. They’ll want revenge for that. Favorites trying to avenge a divisional loss of 14+ (the Raiders beat the Chargers 28-13 in their 2^nd matchup last year) are 53-32 ATS since 2002. Normally once the Chargers hit their stride, they start blowing out teams. They obviously couldn’t blow out the Packers last week or even beat them because Aaron Rodgers is too good, but I like the Chargers’ chances to score in the 30s again this week and unlike Rodgers, Carson Palmer and the Raiders won’t be able to keep up.

Atlanta Falcons 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick (+100) 4 units (-400)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +1 (-110) 0 units

The Falcons are awesome at home. The Saints suck on the road. It’s actually that simple. First, let’s closely examine the Saints’ road troubles in the past 2 years. They’re 4-10 ATS on the road in the past 2 years, 3-8 ATS as favorites, but I don’t think that even does justice to the extent of their road struggles. Let’s take a closer look. They beat San Francisco (finished 6-10) by 3. They lost to Arizona (finished 5-11) by 10. They beat Dallas (finished 6-10) by 3. They beat Cincinnati (finished 4-12) by 4. They beat Carolina (currently 2-6) by 3. They lost to Tampa Bay (currently 4-4) by 6. They lost to St. Louis (currently 1-7) by 10. They’re not a good road team at all.

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan is 22-4 straight up at home in his career and 17-9 ATS, including 3-1 ATS as a dog. Of those 26 home games, 3 were against the Saints and though the Saints did win here by 3 last season, Matt Ryan is 2-1 straight up against the Saints at home in his career. There aren’t any other situational trends here, but I love betting against the Saints as road favorites and on the Falcons as home dogs. That’s enough reason to put 3 units on the Falcons. However, instead of putting 3 on the spread line +1 (-110) and one on the money line (+100), I’m just putting 4 on the money line. 1 point games are rare.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

I couldn’t really find any trends here, except for, of course, that Cam Newton is 5-3 ATS in his career. Rookie quarterbacks tend to be underrated by Vegas. Sam Bradford was 8-4 ATS last year before Vegas stopped underrating him. He finished the season 1-3 ATS. However, Cam Newton is actually 1-2 ATS in his last 3 so maybe something similar is happening here. The Panthers are more than field goal favorites here against a team that isn’t putrid and they’re also coming off a bye.

Meanwhile, I thought Tennessee was overrated coming into last week but after Cincinnati beat them at home, that seems to have changed. I actually like them this week. They’re underdogs of more than 3 against a Carolina team that isn’t very good. Carolina is also coming off of a bye and bad teams have struggled off of byes this season. The bottom 9 teams in my Power Rankings are 0-5-1 ATS off of their byes this season (Miami, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Arizona, Washington, Seattle, Jacksonville, Carolina, Cleveland). I’m taking the points for one.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3 (-115) 1 unit (+100)

The Bengals are 6-2. The Steelers are 6-3. I don’t think anyone predicted this at the beginning of the season. However, the Steelers are the toughest opponent the Bengals have had. Their toughest game so far was a home loss to the 49ers week 3 before the 49ers really started playing well. They’ve also beaten Buffalo at home, but that was because Buffalo was flat after an emotional win over the Patriots.

The Steelers are still favorites on the road here, a situation they’re 5-9 ATS in since 2008. In that same stretch of time, the Bengals are 9-3 ATS as home dogs. However, there are contrasting angles here. Road favorites before a bye, which the Steelers are, are 15-7 ATS since 2008. Meanwhile, since 2002, divisional home dogs are 21-32 ATS before being divisional road dogs. The Bengals have division leading Baltimore next week and might be more focused on that one than this one if history is any indication because that is a road game.

Overall, I don’t have a strong opinion on this one. Some of the angles say Pittsburgh, some say Cincinnati. As much as I want to say this line makes Cincinnati underrated (they’d be -9 in Pittsburgh), my gut says Cincinnati won’t win this game. They haven’t played a team like Pittsburgh yet and Pittsburgh is going to be mad after losing last week. Ben Roethlisberger is 15-11 ATS after a loss as a favorite, which isn’t the strongest trend, but it’s something. Maybe if this line was -3.5 or more, I’d take Cincinnati, but I’m taking the veteran Steelers for one.

St. Louis Rams 16 Cleveland Browns 13 Upset Pick (+125)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-120) 2 units (+200)

Brandon Lloyd is really helping this Rams offense since he’s arrived. He’s brought their number of legitimate pass catchers up from 0 to 1. I know the Rams lost last week to Arizona, but that was more on special teams. Plus, it was Bradford’s first game with Lloyd as he missed the first 2 with injury. Another week healthier and another week with his favorite target should help this Rams offense.

The Rams are in a good situation as road dogs after being road dogs. Teams in that situation are 72-48 ATS since 2008, while the Browns are in likely in their first of two as home favorites with Jacksonville coming to town next week. Teams in that situation are 23-41 ATS since 2010.

The Browns also suck. Their offense is miserable. Colt McCoy is a mediocre quarterback at best and he has no one to throw to. Without Peyton Hillis, they can’t run the ball either and the defense isn’t much better. The Rams should be able to win here on the road as small underdogs given the situations and the fact that they have more talent on their team. Their offense is better and their defense can get after the quarterback as well. However, excluding the 2011 49ers, NFC West teams are 15-30 ATS on the road in the last 2 years so this isn’t going to be a very big bet.

Dallas Cowboys 28 Buffalo Bills 27

Pick against spread: Buffalo +5.5 (-115) 2 units (-230)

Last week I said Buffalo was underrated as mere 1 point favorites at home against the Jets. They lost to the Jets, but I still feel they’re underrated. The Jets came to play last week and destroyed Buffalo’s offense so much that the Bills didn’t stand a chance. The Cowboys won’t be able to do that so this week they should be able to get back to moving the ball well.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys will be missing Miles Austin so their offense is taking a hit. I don’t have any trends here, so this isn’t a bigger bet, but this line is too high. Without Miles Austin, the Cowboys are not 2.5 points better than the Bills. The Bills were +6.5 at Kansas City, +9 at home for New England, +3 at home for Philadelphia, and -6 at home for Washington. They’ve been consistently underrated all year. One loss at home to the Jets doesn’t change that in my mind. I’m taking the points for 2.

Indianapolis Colts 13 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)

If Indianapolis can’t win here, they might go winless. They do have another home game against Carolina and a home game against Tennessee and they pay Jacksonville a visit later this season, but this is their easiest chance to win a game. First of all, Jacksonville is coming off of a bye. Bad teams (teams ranked 24-32 in my Power Rankings) are 0-5-1 ATS off of a bye this season.

Second of all, Jacksonville is just 6-11 ATS under Jack Del Rio as divisional favorites. Third of all, the Jaguars offense is horrific. They have a solid defense, but the Jaguars don’t have the offense to pull away from the Colts. Blaine Gabbert might even be worse than Curtis Painter. Gabbert is completing just 46% of his passes and has thrown for fewer than 100 yards in his last 2 starts. The Colts still have Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They haven’t been as effective as they normally are because the Colts have been trailing so much this season, but they’ll be effective here as Jacksonville can’t pull away. Even better, Blaine Gabbert has the pocket presence of a blind man.

This is a divisional game so I expect the Colts to play with some more urgency this week. They’re the last winless team in the league and though their front office might want them to Suck for Luck, these players are still playing for their dignity. They don’t want to be remembered as just the 2^nd 0-16 team in NFL history. I expect them to play their best game of the season in an ugly grind it out win with not a lot of points scored.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 24 Upset Pick (+145)

Pick against spread: Denver +3 (-105) 3 units (+300)

The Chiefs were exposed last week as overrated frauds by losing by 28 at home to Miami. They’ve won 4 games against the 2-6 Vikings, the 0-9 Colts, the Jason Campbell-less Raiders, and the choking Chargers by a combined 101-61, but lost to the Bills, Lions, Chargers, and Dolphins by a combined 140-30. Ouch!

There are conflicting trends here. The Broncos are in their 2^nd of 2 road games as underdogs, a situation teams are 72-48 ATS in since 2008. More specifically, since 2002, road dogs of 3+ are 17-8 ATS after winning as road dogs of 7+. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 instances as favorites. However, the Chiefs will want revenge for last week. Divisional favorites after a loss as divisional favorites are 22-13 ATS since 2002, while favorites who lose by 21+ are 20-13 ATS since 2002 the next week as favorites.

In the end, I’m taking the Broncos. This line is 3+ and I don’t think the Chiefs should be favored by 3+. With the exception of the Detroit game, all of Tebow’s games have been close and the situations that favor the Broncos are more powerful than the ones that favor the Chiefs. Also, I’m not betting against Tebow. He’s a winner. It’s not pretty in the stat sheet, but he makes clutch throws, runs for big gains and first downs, opens things up for the running game, and motivates his teammates.  

Washington Redskins 16 Miami Dolphins 12 Upset Pick (+170)

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-115) 5 units (-550)

The Dolphins beat the Chiefs by 28 in Kansas City last week. Matt Moore played so well that some Dolphins fans have actually said that they don’t need to Suck for Luck because Matt Moore is a capable quarterback (they’re idiots). However, now they head home, which is normally a good thing for teams, but not for the Dolphins. Though the Dolphins are 19-10 ATS on the road under Tony Sparano, they’re 7-21 ATS at home.

Furthermore, their win last week inflated this line. The Chiefs are an overrated bunch. Last week’s win wasn’t that impressive when you consider that. Now Vegas says the Dolphins are better than the Redskins. I know the Redskins suck, but I find it hard to believe that Miami is better than them, especially at home where Miami plays worse. Miami is 1-10 straight up at home over the past 2 seasons and a mere 1-11 ATS at home as favorites in the Tony Sparano era.

Diving further into the Dolphins’ struggles as favorites under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are just 3-13 ATS as favorites since Sparano took over in 2008, including 2-10 ATS as favorites of 3+ and, as I said earlier, just 1-11 ATS as home favorites. The Dolphins are also 0-6 ATS as favorites after winning straight up as an underdog in the Sparano era.

The Dolphins could also be in a tough situation this week. They have Buffalo coming to town next week. Buffalo will probably be favorites in Miami next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are just 49-70 ATS since 2008. In general, favorites before being dogs and after being dogs are 67-90 ATS since 2008, 23-35 ATS before a divisional game. If, for whatever reason, Miami is favorites next week, this is still a tough situation for them. Teams in their first of two home games as favorites are 24-41 ATS since 2010.

Overall, I expect this to be a low scoring one. Neither team has a good offense. The Dolphins’ offense isn’t as dreadful as Washington’s, but Washington has a solid defense so that negates that. This is going to be an ugly game and a close one, but all of the situations seem to go against Miami. Besides, there’s no way in hell I’m betting Miami as 3+ favorites. If Miami wins, I doubt it’s by more than a field goal. Washington is my co-pick of the week.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -14 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

This was a tough one with a lot of conflicting stuff. The Eagles have the Giants next week, at New York, so they’ll probably be underdogs in that one. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 48-70 ATS since 2008, 25-41 ATS after a loss. Since 2002, double digit favorites before being divisional dogs are 12-20 ATS, 5-9 ATS after a loss.

However, the Eagles are coming off a tough loss to the Bears, losing as favorites. Favorites before being divisional dogs after a loss as a favorite are 22-27 ATS since 2002, which doesn’t make the trend nearly as strong. Besides, Andy Reid is 21-16 ATS in his career after losing as a favorite, though sticking with the theme of conflicting stuff, Reid is 1-5 ATS in his last 6 in that situation so perhaps he’s losing his touch.

The Eagles are also going to have a short week coming off of Monday Night Football, though that seems to not affect Andy Reid, who is 13-8 ATS after MNF, though only 4-3 ATS after a loss on Monday Night football.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals suck. I know they won last week, but that was at home against the lowly Rams in a special teams led effort. John Skelton is horrific. He went 20 of 35 for 222 yards and a touchdown, but that doesn’t highlight how awful he is. The Rams were selling out on the run all game, so much so that the Rams terrible run defense held Beanie Wells to 20 yards on 10 carries. I know Wells was banged up last week, but he’s not too much healthier this week. On top of that Skelton also took TWO safeties. How does that happen?!

Now the Cardinals have to travel 3 time zones for a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast against a Philadelphia team that has shown the ability to blow out bad teams and bad defenses especially (St. Louis, Dallas). The Eagles have also lost to a bunch of good teams so they may not be as bad as their 3-5 record suggests. They also tend to get better as the season goes on.

If you exclude the 2011 49ers, the NFC West is 15-30 ATS on the road since 2010, 2-6 ATS as double digit underdogs. That’s going to be the tiebreaker here for me in this game with so many conflicting trends. This is obviously going to be a 1 unit pick only, especially since I don’t know if Philadelphia deserves to be 14 points favorites over anyone. Finally, fun fact, the Cardinals have only lost 1 game by more than 2 scores this year. Oddly enough, it was against Minnesota.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Houston Texans 21 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (+100) 3 units (-300)

I’m going against a very powerful trend in this game this week. The Buccaneers are 2-11 ATS as home dogs under Raheem Morris. However, I just feel like this is going to be a letdown game for Houston. They’ve won 3 in a row against an unimpressive bunch, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Cleveland and they’ve looked good, but do they really deserve to be 3 point favorites on the road? Tampa Bay is a good team.

Plus, Gary Kubiak has been a head coach for about 5 and a half seasons now. He’s won more than 3 in a row 3 times. That’s it. They’re also 14-20 ATS after a win in the Kubiak era, though they’ve covered in that situation in the last 2 weeks. I think they’re due for a let down here in a game where Vegas is overrating them any way.

On top of that, Tampa Bay has been better at home this season, going 3-1 straight up and beating the likes of New Orleans and Atlanta. Besides, what’s Houston’s motivation here? Their division sucks. They can win it in their sleep. Tampa Bay has to win here to keep pace with New Orleans and Atlanta, who are playing better football than them right now.

Baltimore Ravens 19 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against spread: Seattle +6.5 (-110) 4 units (+400)

Seattle is awesome at home. Everyone knows that. They haven’t even been a good football team since 2007, but they’re 24-13 ATS at home since then. They lost in their last game at home against Cincinnati pretty badly, but they’re 2-1 ATS overall this season at home, so I’m not too worried about that. They should still bring their A game this week, especially since Tarvaris Jackson, the least crappy of their two quarterbacks, is now fully healthy, which he wasn’t against Cincinnati.

Seattle is also one of the league’s better teams against the run, which is a huge part of Baltimore’s offense. If they can contain Ray Rice and make Joe Flacco beat them, they’ve got a very good chance of keeping this game at least close. Flacco is inconsistent at best. Remember, Joe Flacco has yet to put together back to back good games this season. The Ravens have been inconsistent as a whole this year, losing to Tennessee and Jacksonville and needing to stage a comeback to beat Arizona, yet beating Pittsburgh twice, Houston, and the Jets.

The Ravens in general haven’t done well against bad teams this year and they haven’t done well in games after Joe Flacco has had a good game. Besides, they’re coming off a huge win against the Steelers, possibly even bigger than their first win against the Steelers because it was in clutch fashion, on the road, and it clinched them the tiebreaker should both teams finish with the same record. After their first win against the Steelers, they lost to the Titans in Tennessee.

It doesn’t help that teams are actually 17-36 ATS after beating the Steelers since 2002, a remarkable number. Finally, this could be a bit of a sandwich game for them. They played Pittsburgh last week and next week they get another team near the top of their division, Cincinnati. This just in general seems like the type of game the Ravens struggle in. They’re coming off a huge win, and against the Steelers to boot, coming off a game in which Joe Flacco played well, and playing a bad team that stuffs the run well and plays well at home. Give me the points.

San Francisco 49ers 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

The 49ers are the only team in the league to have yet to lose a game ATS. They are 7-0-1 ATS this season and they are getting better every week. They’ve covered in 6 of their last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Giants may be 6-2, but this is the time of year every year when they start to struggle.  In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, they are 47-17 in the first half of the season and 24-32 in the 2nd half. That’s a remarkable difference. On top of that, they have to travel to the West Coast.

However, I am taking the Giants here. This line is more than 3 and I just don’t know if the 49ers have the track record to deserve to be favorites of more than 3 at home against a good, veteran team like the Giants. The 49ers have some nice wins, but against young teams, the Bengals, the Buccaneers, the Lions. They also beat the Eagles, but the Eagles seem to be proving that they just aren’t very good.

The situational angles also all say New York is the right side. The Giants are 14-6 ATS under Tom Coughlin after winning as underdogs, 4-0 ATS after winning as 7+ point underdogs. The Giants are in their 2^nd of 2 road games as underdogs, a situation teams are 72-48 ATS in since 2008. More specifically, since 2002, road dogs of 3+ are 17-8 ATS after winning as road dogs of 7+.

The 49ers are in likely in their first of two as home favorites with Arizona coming to town next week. Teams in that situation are 23-41 ATS since 2010. I’m taking the Giants, but only for a unit and only because the line is more than 3. I think the 49ers win straight up here at home against a Giants team that is going to start struggling at some point.

Chicago Bears 27 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -2.5 (-125) 2 units (+200)

There aren’t a ton of trends at play here and I’m actually going to go against the most prominent one. Chicago is likely in its first of two home games as favorites (San Diego next week). They’re -2.5 here and will probably be between -1 and -3 next week at home for San Diego. However, Chicago is trying to get revenge on Detroit, who beat them earlier this season in Detroit. There aren’t any trends to suggest Chicago is any better in revenge games, but you know that will be motivating them this week.

On top of that, Chicago is playing much better football since that loss in Detroit. They’ve won 3 straight, with a bye week wedging in between, and they’ve hardly played the little sisters of the poor. They beat Minnesota, which isn’t terribly impressive, but they handed Minnesota its biggest loss of the year, beating them by 29 points. They haven’t lost any other game by more than 7. They’ve also beaten Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Their offensive line has really come together and Earl Bennett has established himself as a legitimate receiving threat for Jay Cutler.

Meanwhile, Detroit has dropped 2 of 3 since they played Chicago, with a bye week wedged in. They looked very good in Denver before their bye, but they lost to both San Francisco and Atlanta at home. They don’t really have a win over a proven veteran team yet this season, unless you count Dallas who handed them the game or these Bears, who weren’t nearly as good then as they are now. Both San Francisco and Atlanta beat them at home. I think Chicago can beat them here in Chicago.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 20 (+115) 6 units (+690)

Pick against spread: New England +1.5 (+100) 0 units

The Patriots haven’t lost 3 in a row since 2002. In fact, they’ve only lost 2 in a row 3 times since 2003. Good luck Jets. Going further with that, Tom Brady is 14-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite, while Belichick is 17-10 ATS off a loss as a favorite. Tom Brady is 24-10 ATS as an underdog, 13-4 ATS in his last 17, which dates back to 2003. As an underdog after a loss as a favorite, he’s 5-1 ATS.

This game reminds me a lot of last year’s game against the Steelers. The Patriots were on the road, off a loss, and underdogs. That was one of my favorite picks of last year and the Steelers won by 13 as 5 point underdogs. They’re only 1 point underdogs here, but I just can’t see them losing 3 in a row, especially with all of the other trends in their favor. That’s why this pick is my other co-pick of the week. However, instead of putting 5 on the spread line +1.5 (+100) and one on the money line (+115), I’m just putting 6 on the money line. 1 point games are rare.

Green Bay Packers 35 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against spread: Minnesota +13.5 (-115) 2 units

I think the Vikings are an underrated team. Christian Ponder has them playing much better football and he’s 2-0 ATS in his 2 starts. Rookie quarterbacks in general seem to be doing well ATS in the past couple years, the good ones at least (sorry Blaine Gabbert and Jimmy Clausen). Sam Bradford started last year 9-3 ATS. Cam Newton started this year 5-1 ATS. Andy Dalton is currently 7-1 ATS. Besides, the Vikings only lost one game by more than a touchdown when crappy Donovan McNabb was their starting quarterback.

That being said, I don’t want to bet heavily against the Packers here. Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind right now. Aaron Rodgers is on pace to go 384-530 (72.5%) for 5238 yards (10.0 YPA), and 48 touchdowns to 6 picks. Quarterbacks aren’t supposed to do that. Christian Ponder can have an awesome game here and lose ATS 42-28 or something. Rodgers is that good. I’m taking the Vikings because I think Vegas is underrating them and because they haven’t lost a lot of games by 7+ this year, but you can never be confident betting against Aaron Rodgers. 

Teaser: San Diego -1, New England +7.5 4 units (-440) 

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks: New England +1.5, Washington +3.5, Seattle +6.5, Indianapolis +3, Denver +3

Updated 4/21/11 

This is not a mock draft update. This is my “should” mock draft. This is what I feel each pick should be, based off of my Big Board, my views on team needs, and my general draft strategy.

1. Carolina Panthers- WR AJ Green (Georgia)

Green is my #2 ranked prospect, but I put him here over Patrick Peterson because he fills a bigger need. Their offense scored 4.6 points per game fewer than any other team in the league. I’m not ready to give up on Jimmy Clausen. Plenty of players have struggled in their rookie year and rebounded, especially ones who had poor supporting casts like Clausen did as rookies. I liked Clausen out of college and I give him a true #1 receiver here who can help him out right away.

2. Denver Broncos- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)

Peterson is my #1 overall prospect and fills a need for the Broncos here. Champ Bailey turns 33 this offseason, while Perrish Cox is facing rape charges. Besides, they ranked 30^th against the pass last year.

3. Buffalo Bills- 3-4 DE Marcell Dareus (Alabama)

Nick Fairley, Julio Jones, and Robert Quinn are all ranked higher on my board than Dareus, but I like Dareus in a 3-4 more than Fairley, Jones doesn’t fill a bit need, and I worry about drafting Quinn with the 3^rd pick as an end and converting him into a linebacker. That’s a risky proposition. Dareus will help their 32^nd ranked run defense and add to a pass rush that managed a mere 27 sacks last year.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)

Fairley is ranked higher, but doesn’t fill a need. Quinn does as they can’t count on Antawn Odom, coming off of 2 straight season ending injuries, to stay healthy opposite Carlos Dunlap. Quinn goes before Julio Jones because of his higher positional value.