Month: May 2012

Chargers’ Norv Turner thinks Ryan Mathews could lead league in rushing

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In an interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune, Chargers Head Coach Norv Turner said that he believes Ryan Mathews could lead the league in rushing. Normally everything coaches say should be taken with a grain of salt, especially something from a coach as publicly criticized as Turner, as coaches often overestimate their own talent. However, this was a belief I had before Turner said anything so this just solidifies it.

Mathews is a former 12th overall pick (201) and the Chargers really don’t have much in the way of backup options behind him. Gone is touchdown vulture Mike Tolbert (21 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons) and right now all the Chargers have is Curtis Brinkley and his 32 career carries, 7th round pick Edwin Baker, and fullback Le’Ron McClain. Turner has always preferred one workhorse back over multiple specialized backs and it appears he’s finally comfortable with Mathews in that role.

On an offense as explosive as the Chargers, with as much talent as he has, if Mathews gets 300 carries, he could easily lead the league in rushing. Injuries might be the only thing that will stop him from those 300 carries. Last year, Mathews and Tolbert combined for 1581 rushing yards on 343 carries, 16 total touchdowns, and 104 receptions. And that was a down year for San Diego’s offense. There’s a reason why Mathews is my #3 fantasy back.

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Shane Vereen working with Patriots’ 1st team in OTAs

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A day after it was reported by ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss that it would be Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, not veteran free agent acquisition Joseph Addai, that would get the bulk of the carries for the Patriots, the Jeff Rowe of the Boston Herald is reporting that Shane Vereen is getting all of the 1st team work in OTAs.

That being said, I wouldn’t read too much into Vereen being 1st string and Ridley 2nd because Belichick has never been one for using just one back. Both were high picks a year ago and he’ll use both in different roles. Ridley will probably see the goal line carries, but this could be a sign that Vereen will lead the team in carries. Danny Woodhead will continue to work as a passing down specialist, while Rowe seconds Reiss’ suggestion that Addai is no lock to make the final 53 at 29 years of age.

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Brandon Jackson to be Browns 3rd down back?

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The Browns may have traded up to use the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on Trent Richardson, but according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Brandon Jackson will be used on 3rd downs. This move is consistent with what Head Coach Pat Shurmur normally does, taking his feature back out on 3rd downs. He did so in St. Louis with Steven Jackson when he was their offensive coordinator in 2010 and then again last year in Cleveland with Peyton Hillis.

Richardson is a rookie, so he’s obviously raw in pass protection, even coming over from being coached by Nick Saban. Meanwhile, Brandon Jackson’s specialty is pass protection. This would leave Montario Hardesty without a clear role, but according to the same Cleveland Plain Dealer report, the 2010 2nd round pick is not likely to be cut. Instead, they believe it will be Chris Ogbonnaya who will be cut, unless he can prove himself as valuable on special teams. Obviously the Browns view Hardesty as the better of the two as a pure runner and want him around in case something happens to Richardson.

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Matt Flynn “by far” Seahawks’ best quarterback in OTAs

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Pete Carroll has said it will be a true competition for starting quarterback between incumbent Tarvaris Jackson, free agent acquisition Matt Flynn, and 3rd round rookie Russell Wilson. He’s been true to his word so far, alternating 1st string quarterbacks in OTAs on a daily basis. According to Pro Football Weekly, however, Flynn has been “by far” their best quarterback.

That statement would go along with what everyone has believed since Flynn signed a 3 year, 19.5 million dollar deal with 10 million guaranteed, that he will be their week 1 starter. Carroll loves competition and obviously is not going to name a starter at this point and maybe not until after Training Camp or later, but it wouldn’t shock me if they started giving Flynn more reps with the 1st team in the coming days. It’ll be interesting to see if they do that. I’ve said all along that Flynn will be the starter and Russell Wilson will be the backup, making Jackson and his 4 million dollar salary expendable and leading to his release. Obviously, nothing is set in stone yet.

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Bears worried about Matt Forte’s knees

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Matt Forte was franchised by the Chicago Bears earlier this offseason and he has not been happy about it. Forte is refusing to sign the 7.7 million dollar tender as he’s looking for a deal worth 8.5 million or so per year over 4-5 years with about half guaranteed: a deal essentially on par with what LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, and Arian Foster have gotten in the last 2 seasons. He also took serious offense when the Bears signed Michael Bush to a long term deal, even though it was to be his backup.

The Bears are refusing to meet Forte’s demands, as they have been doing for over a year, since the old regime in the front office. According to the Chicago Tribune, the reason behind this is that they’re worried about his knees. This seems to be a bit of a strange belief as Forte hadn’t missed any games due to injury in his NFL career before last season when he went on IR with a sprained MCL. Forte did tear his PCL in college and sprain it again in 2009, a minor injury, but what running back or what NFL player in general has never had a knee injury?

The Bears obviously know better about Forte’s knees than I would, but I do think the story sounds peculiar. Forte’s agent had a different word for it, calling it “absurd,” pointing to the fact that I just brought up, that Forte hadn’t missed a game due to injury in his NFL career before last year. If the Bears are, in fact, worried about Forte’s knees, they won’t give him what he wants and that means this could be a long, drawn out, and messy hold out. It wouldn’t shock me if the Bears traded Forte before the season, as they did give Michael Bush, who has some starting experience, a good chunk of money this offseason. Also Kahlil Bell played decent down the stretch in place of an injured Forte last season.

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St. Louis Rams Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Rams

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

8/27/12: I was a little bit lower on Bradford than I should have been. He’s only a QB2, but I’m moving him up slightly.

Tough to get behind Bradford as anything more than a QB2 because of his lack of offensive supporting cast. He could improve on the 3512 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions he had in 2010, but at the same time, I don’t expect them to pass 590 times again, like they did in 2010. And, of course, he might not last the season behind an offensive line that led the league in sacks in 2011. They got a new center, which helps, but that’s just a center. They also inexplicably didn’t address the line until the 5th round in the draft.

Projection: 3720 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (205 pts standard/245 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

8/31/12: Isaiah Pead has failed to lock down the #2 back job behind Steven Jackson. He will split the role with follow rookie Daryl Richardson. This is good and bad news for Jackson’s fantasy stock. The good news is that there’s no immediate threat to his workload and he should see the type of carries he’s used to so long as he’s healthy and running well. The bad news is that there’s no obvious handcuff should he get hurt so you’re taking a big risk with Jackson that he doesn’t get hurt or decline. History suggests he might have one more good year in him so he’s worth that risk in a weak running back class outside of the top-10 backs.

Like Michael Turner, Jackson will be getting a reduced workload this season, but Jackson’s reduced workload is more well known after the Rams spent a 2nd round pick on a running back, Isaiah Pead. Pead will be able to do what Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood couldn’t last season, reduce Jackson’s workload. He’s also 29 in July and has 2138 career carries and stagnated fantasy wise by the offense he’s on. He’s only scored 10+ touchdowns once in his 8 year career.

Projection: 240 carries 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 40 catches 330 receiving yards (176 pts standard/216 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (St. Louis)

8/13/12: If any of St. Louis’ wideouts are going to be fantasy relevant this season, it’s probably going to be Smith. Smith seems to be healthy off of essentially 2 lost years with injuries. He’s working with the 1st team, having a strong camp, and was Bradford’s favorite weapon in their 1st preseason game. He probably will never be his 100 catch self again, like he was in 2009 before injury, but he’s got the most value of any of St. Louis’ receivers. He’s worth a late round pick.

Projection: 63 catches 780 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (108 pts standard/171 pts PPR)

WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

Bradford showed great chemistry with Amendola in the slot as a rookie in 2010 as he caught 85 passes for 689 yards and 3 touchdowns. Even after a major injury last year, he should still have similar numbers in 2012.

Projection: 80 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard/174 pts PPR)

TE Lance Kendricks (St. Louis)

Lance Kendricks was their 2nd round pick in 2011. He had a disappointing rookie year, but in his 2nd year in the league, he could definitely have a better year. Sam Bradford probably won’t miss as many games as he did last year and with little to no proven outside receivers, he could target the talented Kendricks early and often. There’s some upside here.

Projection: 45 catches 570 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (87 pts standard/132 PPR)

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Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Cardinals

QB John Skelton (Arizona)

8/20/12: The Cardinals have not named a starting quarterback yet, but Skelton will start and play into the 3rd quarter this week, which means he’ll get all the 1st team reps in the most important Preseason game of the year. Barring a meltdown, he’ll be the starting quarterback. In 11 career starts, he’s thrown for 2248 yards, 10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, while rushing for 153 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3270 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 223 rushing yards. He was pulled in two of those games and has thrown for 2057 yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, while rushing for 144 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3657 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while rushing for 256 yards. He’s got a good receiving corps, but there’s no guarantee he won’t be benched midseason or anything like that. You can do better in a QB2.

Projection: 3500 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (196 pts standard/226 pts in 6 pts TD leagues)

RB Chris Wells (Arizona)

7/1/12: Chris Wells is still uncertain for Training Camp after giving what was initially called “minor” surgery on his knee earlier this offseason. Meanwhile, Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt challenged him publicly to “bust his tail” over the next few weeks because other running backs have looked good in his absence. They spent a 2nd round pick on Ryan Williams in 2011 and now that he has returned from injury, they plan to use him. The more time Wells misses, the better it is for Williams and the worse it is for Wells.

Chris Wells had a great season last year, but Ryan Williams is returning from injury. They used a 2nd round pick on him in 2011, so they’ll definitely use him. He’ll cut into Wells’ carries a lot more than Alfonso Smith, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Chester Taylor did last season. He won’t approach the career high 245 carries he had last season, especially after an offseason surgery of his own on his knee, one he is not yet practicing because of.

Projection: 170 carries 710 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 9 catches 60 receiving yards (119 pts standard/128 pts PPR)

RB Ryan Williams (Arizona)

7/1/12: With Wells moving down, Williams moves up. Wells is hardly the picture of durability so Williams is not only a nice compliment, but will be a potential fantasy breakout candidate if Wells suffers a major injury. There’s upside here.

Williams will probably be a pure backup after the season that Chris Wells had last year, but he’ll see some carries and it’s not like Wells isn’t an injury risk. They drafted Williams in the 2nd round for a reason. They’ll use him.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 32 catches 240 receiving yards (117 pts standard/149 pts PPR)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

Larry Fitzgerald had 80 catches for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns last year with terrible quarterback play. I can’t guarantee his quarterback play will be any better, but Michael Floyd drawing away the bracket coverage opposite him will help him.

Projection: 83 catches 1440 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (198 pts standard/281 pts PPR)

WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

7/26/12: The 13th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Floyd is reportedly struggling with his work ethic and will open Training Camp as the Cardinals’ 4th receiver and may even start the season 4th on the depth chart. He could work his way up the depth chart during the season, but his fantasy value just went from minimal to none.

There’s not a ton of value in Arizona’s #2 receiver, even one as talented as Floyd, but Early Doucet had 54 catches for 689 yards and 5 touchdowns and Andre Roberts had 51 catches for 586 yards and 2 touchdowns last year. Floyd should at least do better than that, even as a rookie.

47 catches 520 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (76 pts standard/123 pts PPR)

TE Rob Housler (Arizona)

8/20/12: You can read more about Housler here.

Projection: 48 catches 600 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (84 pts standard/132 pts PPR)

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Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

8/27/12: Wilson has some intrigue as QB2 with upside because of his rushing ability. However, considering the history of non-1st round pick rookie quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks in general, I don’t really like his upside. Wilson will become just the 5th non-1st round pick quarterback to get his team’s week 1 start since 1994. Other than Andy Dalton last year, they’ve all thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns.

He probably won’t throw for a high YPA (even Dalton last year averaged just 6.6 YPA) and the Seahawks ran one of the most conservative offenses in the league last year, passing just 509 times.With a rookie quarterback under center, they’ll only get more conservative, especially since with a mobile, run happy quarterback like Wilson.

As a passer, I don’t like his chances to even exceed the 3091 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions that Tarvaris Jackson threw for last season. He might if he plays all 16 games, but Pete Carroll loves constant competition at positions and likely wouldn’t hesitate to pull Wilson for Flynn, now one of the league’s most expensive backups, if he struggles.

Projection: 2930 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard/217 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

8/27/12: Wilson under center will be a good thing for Lynch. The Seahawks will become even more conservative and run more, while Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up on the ground for Lynch. I still don’t like Lynch to match his 2011 production because he’s an injury prone, one hit wonder, known for slacking off and probably will now that he’s gotten paid, but I’m moving him up.

8/13/12:  It sounds like Lynch won’t be suspended, at least in 2012, as Roger Goodell wants to wait until the result of his DUI case before assigning any penalty. That likely means that any suspension would take place in 2013, if ever. I still don’t like him this year, as a one year wonder, behind a poor offensive line, after getting a new contract, but I’m bumping him back up to my original projection for him.

7/26/12: Lynch was arrested again. He’s already been suspended for 3 games in the past so I expect some sort of 2-4 game suspension again for him. He also runs behind a poor offensive line (which is why he averaged just 4.2 YPC last year) and he was pretty mediocre in 2009-2010. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Lynch is another back I’m staying away from. He’s only managed more than 202 carries once in the last 3 years and that was last year. He’s been an underachiever most of his career and I expect that to be the case next year now that he’s gotten a new contract. He’s also often injured because of his running style.

Projection: 250 carries 1100 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 20 catches 170 receiving yards (187 pts standard/207 pts PPR)

RB Robert Turbin (Seattle)

8/27/12: Turbin has had a great preseason and while he’ll be Lynch’s primary backup, Lynch could easily miss a couple games with injury and/or struggle and cede a few more carries to Turbin than a true feature back would. On top of that, the Seahawks will run more with Russell Wilson under center and Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up for him on the ground.

8/13/12: Moving Turbin back down as his value is tied to Marshawn Lynch’s. He’s still a name to know because Lynch will probably underachieve and/or get hurt, but he’s not really draftable.

7/26/12: In Marshawn Lynch’s absence, Robert Turbin will be the lead back because Leon Washington is just a change of pace, 3rd down back, and return man. He should be a RB3 or so for a few games to start the season and then from there, you never know. This situation reminds me of 2009 when Lynch was suspended.

A then unknown Fred Jackson had 402 yards from scrimmage in the first 3 games and performed so well that he got carries the rest of the season, finishing the year with 1433 yards from scrimmage. He was also a valuable trade chip after week 3 to unaware fantasy owners. He’s definitely worth a late round pick. He’s got plenty of upside.

If Lynch misses any time, Turbin will be the lead back. He’ll also probably handle 3rd down duties immediately. I don’t know if I’d draft him, but he’s a name to know.

Projection: 130 carries 600 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (106 pts standard/126 pts PPR)

WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

8/27/12: Terrell Owens has been cut. Sidney Rice has been cleared for contact and will likely start week 1. Remember, he’s only exceeded 32 catches for 484 yards once in his 5 year career, but he’s incredibly talented when healthy and caught 82 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009. He’s definitely worth a late round flier.

8/7/12: Sidney Rice is not expected to be cleared to be cleared for contact for most of the Preseason. It’s mostly precautionary and he should be out there week 1, but it’s definitely not a good sign. Neither is the fact that they’ve signed Antonio Bryant (eventually cut 10 days later), Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens in the last couple weeks. He’s still got upside if he can stay healthy and he’s worth a late round flier, but his current ADP in the 9th round is too high. He’s had 3 concussions and 2 shoulder surgeries in the last calendar year. He’s almost definitely going to be a fantasy dud this season.

In 5 years in the league, Rice has only surpassed 32 catches for 484 yards once. Of course, he had 83 catches for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns that year, but he’s still the definition of boom or bust. He’s had 2 shoulder surgeries and 3 concussions in the last calendar year, but he should be out there week 1. He’s still the Seahawks’ #1 receiver and there’s definitely upside with him with a new quarterback, but there’s also a clear downside.

Projection: 50 catches 750 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (105 pts standard/155 pts PPR)

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

8/27/12: I’m moving Baldwin down slightly because Rice is healthy and because I don’t like the quarterback and because Baldwin is nursing his own injury right now, though he’s expected to play week 1. Baldwin led the team in receiving last year, but only out of necessity and was hardly a fantasy stud doing it. On what figures to be a mediocre passing offense, Rice is really the only receiver worth owning and only for his upside as a late round flier.

8/7/12: Sidney Rice is a major injury risk, Braylon Edwards is no sure thing, and Terrell Owens is done. Doug Baldwin will probably lead the team in receiving again. In his 2nd year in the league, he could definitely improve on his 51 catches for 777 yards and 4 touchdowns from last season, especially if Matt Flynn proves to be an upgrade at quarterback.

Baldwin had 51 catches for 788 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie and led the team in receiving. However, that was pretty much out of necessity. He might do that again this year, but then again, they could get more out of Sidney Rice.

Projection: 51 catches 710 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (95 pts standard/146 pts PPR)

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San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, 49ers

QB Alex Smith (San Francisco)

Smith could improve on the 17 touchdowns and 3144 yards he had in 2011 as the 49ers have gotten him 3 new receivers, Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkins, and Randy Moss. However, they added another running back through the draft too so they will still be a run heavy team. I also don’t see his 5 interceptions as replicable.

Projection: 3200 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (196 pts standard/232 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

Jim Harbaugh said their selection of LaMichael James wasn’t an indictment on Gore’s ability, but I don’t think there’s any way the addition of James, as well as Brandon Jacobs, doesn’t cut into Gore’s carries as he heads into his age 29 season. He probably has another 2 good years as the lead back, but he won’t see the 282 carries he had last year, even if he does stay healthy for 16 games for just the 3rd time in his 8 year career.

Projection: 220 carries 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 35 catches 280 receiving yards (171 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco)

Crabtree is still San Francisco’s #1 wide receiver, but only by default. He’ll have more competition for balls from Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and AJ Jenkins, as well as Vernon Davis, who was very dominant down the stretch last season. He probably won’t even reach the 72 catches for 874 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 60 catches 810 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (105 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

WR Mario Manningham (San Francisco)

Manningham had 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2010 as a starter for the New York Giants, but the 49ers’ passing offense isn’t nearly as good. He’ll be borderline fantasy irrelevant this season.

Projection: 50 catches 620 receiving yards 3 receiving touchdowns (80 pts standard/130 pts PPR)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

In Davis’ last 5 games, including playoffs, he had 28 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s insane. Remember, he had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 and 56 catches for 914 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, before totaling just 67 catches for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. He’s still San Francisco’s #1 receiver. Buy low while you still can.

Projection: 74 catches 920 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/208 pts PPR)

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Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Panthers

QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

7/26/12: One of the things I realized while writing my season preview for the Panthers is that a predictable decrease in rushing touchdowns for Newton would led to not only Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams rushing for more touchdowns, but also Newton throwing for more touchdowns, even if he does have a predictable sophomore slump.

Cam Newton could be overdrafted based on what he did last year. He’s still a strong QB1, but I think there’s a good distance between him and the 4 quarterbacks above him on this list. Anyone who expects him to rush for 14 touchdowns again doesn’t understand football. The all time leader in CAREER rushing touchdowns by a quarterback is Steve Young, who had 43. Young never had more than 7 in any single season. That number is a fluke if I’ve ever seen one. He’ll probably run less overall to preserve his health long term. He could also see his passing numbers decrease slightly with Steve Smith aging and the possibility of a sophomore slump.

Projection: 3920 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 600 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns (298 pts standard/342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put his original projections back.

8/27/12: Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle. It’s not a huge deal and he probably won’t miss more than a week or two, but he’s currently in a race to start week 1, so I’m moving him down slightly.

Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 150 carries 750 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 310 receiving yards (154 pts standard/191 pts PPR)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put Williams’ original projections back as well.

8/27/12: With Stewart getting hurt, even a minor injury, Williams gets the opportunity to be a pure feature back on one of the best running games in the league for a week or two. I’m moving him up slightly.

Copy and paste: Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 160 carries 800 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (144 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith had a major bounce back year in 2011 with 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he’s now 33. Even Hall of Fame receivers tend to start declining majorly around 33-35 so he’s definitely a risk early in drafts, as good of chemistry as he has with Cam Newton.

Projection: 65 catches 1040 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (140 pts standard/205 pts PPR)

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

8/27/12: Brandon LaFell is the clear starter for the Panthers opposite Legedu Naanee gone and David Gettis still hurt. In 6 starts last year, LaFell caught 15 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown, good for 40 catches for 715 yards and 3 touchdowns over 3 games. On top of that, if he had the 76 targets Naanee had last year and maintained his rates, he would have caught 49 passes for 831 yards and 4 touchdowns. Now he’s the clear starter opposite an aging wide receiver. There is upside here.

LaFell is heading into his 3rd year, a year when receivers tend to have a breakout year. LaFell is not overly talented so I don’t see a huge year for him, but he should pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack and have a career best season. He might be worth a look late in fantasy drafts.

Projection: 50 catches 850 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (115 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

8/27/12: The Panthers coaching staff talked up Greg Olsen. Jeremy Shockey is gone and Cam Newton loves throwing to his tight ends. He targeted Olsen and Shockey a combined 152 times last season and could target them even more this season with Steve Smith aging on the outside. Mike Tolbert and Gary Barnridge will take some of those targets, but Olsen could see up to 100 targets this year and have a very solid year. He could also be Newton’s primary target around the goal line as Olsen and Shockey combined for 9 touchdowns last year. Newton also figures to throw more around the goal line this year because his 14 rushing touchdowns is going to be unrepeatable.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Projection: 55 catches 700 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

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