Steve Johnson isn’t an elite receiver. He can do some boneheaded things and always seems to drop the ball at the worst possible time, so 36.25 million over 5 years with 19.5 million guaranteed seems a little rich. However, he shows great chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick, to the tune of back to back 1000 yard seasons and he was worth more to them than anyone else. Besides, it’s not like Buffalo is a hot destination for free agents so when they get a player who is above average, they almost have to resign him, even if they have to overpay slightly.

Grade: B

 

 

Steve Janis bringing you the insight, intelligence and fan’s perspective of everything Buffalo Bills. I can be reached at wnywatercooler@gmail.com.  My website is www.wnywatercooler.com. I have been running this all Buffalo blog since 2007.  Obviously I’m a season ticket holder and an avid fan of all sports.  The Bills are my main focus and my favorite team.  

 

The Titans obviously need interior line help. LeRoy Harris isn’t very good and Jake Scott is probably gone as a free agent. Hutchinson is an older player, 34, who was overpaid on the rebuilding Vikings, but he’s a good fit for the Titans on a cheaper contract. He was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked guard last season, so 16 million over 3 years is reasonable for him. No word on the guaranteed money, but as long as it isn’t too much, this is a good deal for a veteran who still has a lot in the tank at a position that ages well. Oh, and Hutchinson and Peyton Manning are friends who share an agent. Make your own conclusions from that.

Grade: A

 

The Patriots needed safety help, but I don’t know how much Gregory, who was ProFootballFocus’ 75^th ranked safety last season in San Diego, will help. He can be solid depth, which they lacked last season, but they’re giving him 7.5 million over 3 years which suggests they think of him as a starter. I don’t know if he’s an upgrade over James Ihedigbo (57^th on ProFootballFocus). I would have preferred to see them look for a safety in the draft instead. I understand it’s a weak draft class, but they have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds and not a ton of needs so they seemed to be in position to get either Mark Barron or Harrison Smith.

Grade: C

 

 

I don’t understand this at all. The Chiefs just spent a 1^st round pick on Jonathan Baldwin and they already have Dwayne Bowe. Why would they give Breaston 25 million over 5 years with 9.5 million guaranteed? I understand Baldwin might not be ready to start as a rookie coming off a lockout shortened offseason, but they’re probably going to want him to start by year 2 right? I know Breaston has history with Todd Haley and history as a slot receiver in Todd Haley’s offense, but in that case they just spent 9.5 million guaranteed on a slot receiver.

On top of that Breaston is not the same breakout receiver who caught 77 passes for 1006 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2008 as Haley’s slot receiver in Arizona. In the past two years, Breaston has had nagging knee injuries. So basically the Chiefs just spent 9.5 million guaranteed on a slot receiver with bad knees on a deal that would take him until he’s 32 if he plays out the entirety of the contract in Kansas City (I’ll bet anyone 50 bucks he doesn’t).

Grade: F

 

 

I had Tulloch as my 20^th rated free agent. He’s one of the best linebackers in the league. He’s only 26 and his 160 tackles last year were 2^nd in the league. I have no idea how the Lions got him for 3.25 million dollars for the 2011 season. There’s no way he didn’t leave a ton of money on the table to join the Lions. My only guess is that he really wanted to rejoin former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is now the head coach of the Lions.

Grade: A

 

 

Defensive Tackle/Nose Tackle

Oregon State

6-1 303

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board overall defensive tackle rank: #5

Overall rating: 81 (early 2nd)

40 time: 5.11 (projected)

3/29/11: You probably know Stephen Paea as the guy who damn near benched 50 reps of 225 at The Combine (he had 49, but said he would have done 50 if he known that’s how many he had), shattering the previous record of 44. However, he’s more than some guy who is great in the weight room. Certainly, lifting that much doesn’t hurt his stock. I know most of the guys who have benched 40+ in the past aren’t in the NFL anymore, hell, I had never heard of half of them and the ones I had (Brodrick Bunkley) I had heard of for the wrong reasons. However, Paea strength translates to the field. He has great strength and leverage, both upper and lower body, and can play the 3-4 and the 4-3 nose despite being a “mere” 303 pounds.

He has an amazing work ethic and he keeps himself in great shape with a low body fat. He’s a self made athlete and his motor never shuts off. His arms are a little short and his natural athleticism is subpar, but he makes up for it in effort. He’s also a little short, which hurts him as a pass rusher and limits him to simply the nose in a 3-4, rather than giving him the potential to move to end.

He does have good bull rushing moves and he had 7 sacks last year for Oregon State, though clearly his ability against the run is his calling card. He also has some upside. He’s a former rugby player who has only been playing football for 6 years after coming over to the states as a high schooler from Tonga (no idea where that is). He also spent 2 years on a junior college team before transferring to Oregon State, where he started 3 years and made an immediate impact.

His knee also should be mentioned. He tore his meniscus at the Senior Bowl and has yet to work out, with the exception of his bench press. He has a private Pro Day set up on March 31^st, but general consensus is that his knee will keep him out of the late 1^st and push him into the 2^nd. Chicago at 29, might have interest, but other than that, it’s very unlikely he goes in the first.

NFL Comparison: Dewayne Robertson

 

 

Stephen Nicholas is a serviceable starting linebacker in this league and they get him at a good rate, 17.5 million over 5 years. However, I don’t like the idea of giving an average player a five year deal. Nicholas is only 27, so it might not be the worst thing in the world, but if they ever decide they want to replace him in the starting lineup with someone better than him, he’ll still be owed a lot of money over a long period of time.

Grade: B

 

 

Wide receiver

Georgia Tech

6-4 215

Draft board overall prospect rank: #27

Draft board overall wide receiver rank: #4

Overall rating: 82 (Borderline 1^st round prospect)

40 time: 4.36

Games watched: 

Positives

·         Physical freak

·         Rare athlete

·         Excellent size and height (6-4 215)

·         Great speed (4.36)

·         Amazing 10 yard split (1.20)

·         Explosive long strider

·         Workout wonder

·         Big, reliable hands

·         Great body control

·         Makes highlight reel catches http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcs-iqymQrk

·         Flashes brilliance

·         Dangerous in the end zone

·         A vertical deep threat

·         Dangerous in the open field

·         Proven and talented blocker

·         Lean and strong

Negatives

·         Lack of production at Georgia Tech (28 catches for 820 yards and 5 touchdowns as a junior)

·         Not that experienced (1 year of production)

·         Raw route runner

·         Limited route tree

·         Played in a triple option

·         Projection to a Pro Style offense

·         Has some trouble with drops

·         Never saw tough coverage as defenses were focused on the run

·         More of a decoy than anything in college

·         Very raw and not NFL ready

NFL Comparison: Darrius Heyward-Bey

He also reminds me of Demaryius Thomas. I know the Demaryius Thomas comparison is a little lazy, but they’re coming from similar situations. Both went to Georgia Tech and were underutilized in a triple option offense. Both came out incredibly raw, but incredibly athletic. Thomas was more productive than Hill at Georgia Tech (but he stayed a year longer), but Hill is even more athletic. I think Darrius Heyward-Bey is a better comparison.

Hill has the type of athleticism that is incredibly rare. On pure athleticism, there are probably only a few more athletic wide receiver in the NFL. Calvin Johnson is another former Georgia Tech wide receiver who had otherworldly athleticism, though the former #2 pick overall was a much more polished player. Hill has comparable athleticism, though slightly inferior. At 6-4 215, he ran a 4.36 at The Combine with a record 1.20 10 yard split (the previous record was Chris Johnson’s 1.40). He also had a vertical leap of 39.5 inches and an 11 foot 1 broad jump.

Also at The Combine, Hill made several highlight reel catches in the drills, something he did quite a few times at Georgia Tech last season, even though he was rarely utilized (28 catches for 805 yards and 5 touchdowns). He certainly flashes at times and has the upside to be one of the top 5 receivers in the league someday. If Demaryius Thomas can become one of the most promising young receivers in the league in 2 years, Hill can do the same.

Darrius Heyward Bey has also become a promising young wide receiver, though it took him 3 years. Likewise, he could also completely bust and be out of the league in a few years. You’re taking a major risk with him, but the payout could be very sweet. He has more upside than either Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd and could be the best wide receiver in this class when all is said and done.

He’ll probably go in the first round. His stock seems to start at 19 to Chicago, who still needs another wide receiver. They had lunch with him after his Pro Day. Cleveland at 22, Denver at 25, Houston at 26, San Francisco at 30, and New England at 31 are all options. Buffalo has also shown a lot of interest in him. Buffalo has the 10^th pick in the first round and while that may seem too rich for him, they’ve certainly reached for players before. They could also trade down for him.

 

 

And Daniel Snyder was doing so well this offseason. He got Josh Wilson, Santana Moss, and Barry Cofield for either market value or below market value. I guess it was only a matter of time until he did something like this. Bowen had a nice season last year, but that the only even good season he’s had in his career. He has 11 career starts and rewarding guys, especially defensive linemen, after one good year in a contract year has a way of coming back to bite you in the ass. Stephen Bowen is only 27 so this isn’t a terrible move, but paying him 27.5 million over 5 years with 12 million in guarantees looks pretty stupid.

Grade: D