Some still believe Robert Meachem has #1 wide receiver upside, even though the former first round pick has never exceeded 45 catches for 722 yards and 9 touchdowns despite playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league for 4 years. The Chargers seem to be one of those teams, paying him 25.9 million over 4 years with 14 million guaranteed to replace Vincent Jackson. They’re going to be very disappointed. It’s absolutely ridiculous that Meachem almost got what Steve Johnson got (5 years, 36.25 million, with 19 million guaranteed). In fact, he only got 5 million less in guaranteed money than Marques Colston. This was just a panic overpay by the Chargers.

Grade: F

 

 

The Colts are cutting Peyton Manning and likely not resigning Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday because they want to rebuild, and rightfully so. Given that, giving the 31 year old Mathis 4 years, 36 million, with 15 million guaranteed doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Mathis has never played in the 3-4 scheme they’re moving to and resigning him makes it harder to resign Pierre Garcon, who will be a valuable under 30 wide receiver going forward for Andrew Luck, and it almost means they probably have to trade Dwight Freeney, a superior pass rusher to Mathis. In fact, we don’t even know how good Mathis would be without Freeney opposite him. This doesn’t make any sense.

Grade: D

 

 

Quarterback

Baylor

6-2 223

Draft board overall prospect rank: #2

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #2

Overall rating: 98 (elite prospect)

40 time: 4.41

Games watched: TCU/Baylor, Texas A&M/Baylor, Oklahoma/Baylor

Positives

·         Amazing athlete

·         Holds high school state records in hurdling

·         Michael Vick esque showing at The Combine (including 4.41 40)

·         Intelligent kid who graduated Baylor in 3 years, working on masters

·         High character, well brought up

·         Excellent leader who led the rebuilding of a program

·         Charismatic face of the franchise

·         Cerebral quarterback

·         Deserving Heisman winner as a junior (over Andrew Luck)

·         Excellent production as a junior, better than Andrew Luck (72.4%, 10.7 YPA, 37/6)

·         Won a lot of shoot outs

·         Won a lot of games his team had no business winning

·         Defining win against Oklahoma

·         10-3 record as a junior

·         Amazing deep ball arm strength

·         Cannon arm

·         Can make every throw

·         Quick release

·         Succeeded in spite of a terrible offensive line (27 sacks in 2011)

·         Able to evade pressure and scramble for big gains (over 600 yards rushing in all 3 years as a starter)

·         Looks to throw first, run as a 2^nd option

·         3 year starter

·         Hard worker who improved his throwing ability mightily from 2010 to 2011

·         Gunslinger mentality (this can be a positive and a negative)

Negatives

·         Lack of Pro Style experience

·         Only one year of elite production

·         Was a mere 2^nd/3^rd rounder before this season (one year wonder?)

·         Lacks elite accuracy (in comparison to Andrew Luck)

·         Lacks elite decision making (in comparison to Andrew Luck)

·         A tad undersized at 6-2

·         Smaller frame (6-2 223) could lead to injuries at next level given how much he runs

·         Injury history (missed most of 2009, also suffered a concussion last season)

·         Needs to learn to feel the pressure better

·         Holds the ball weird

Comparison: Poor man’s Aaron Rodgers

I’m not saying Robert Griffin will be as good as Aaron Rodgers. I’m just saying that he reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. Watching him throw deep strikes to Kendall Wright reminds me of Aaron Rodgers do the same to Greg Jennings. Both have amazing deep accuracy 10-15+ yards downfield. Both are athletic and mobile, though Rodgers didn’t ever run a 4.4. They have similar size and like Rodgers, Griffin will have to learn to slide in the NFL to avoid injuries, but like Rodgers, Griffin is a smart kid so I doubt don’t his ability to do so. They even had similar stats this season as Rodgers won the MVP and Griffin won the Heisman.

Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the most polished prospect coming out of California and he fell to the 24th overall pick. Griffin won’t fall that far, but he isn’t the most polished prospect either, at least when you compare him to Andrew Luck. His pocket presence, accuracy, and decision making are things that need some work. They’re not bad, they’re just not elite.

Rodgers really benefited from 3 years on the bench behind Brett Favre. Griffin won’t get that luxury, but he probably won’t need it. I think Andrew Luck will be the better quarterback right away because he’s more polished and experienced in a Pro Style offense (he also has 2 years of elite production to Griffin’s 1). However, long term, it wouldn’t surprise me too much if Griffin ended up the better pro. Either way, I think both will be legitimate franchise quarterbacks in the NFL who deserve to go #1 and #2 overall.

When comparing Luck and Griffin, a frequent comparison is that Luck is the smart one and Griffin is the athletic one. While there’s some truth to this, I find this to be a lazy comparison. Yes, Luck is smarter. He called most of his team’s plays in the huddle or at the line of scrimmage in a pro style offense and got a 3.5 at Stanford. And yes, Griffin is more athletic. He was an all-state hurdler and had a Michael Vick esque Combine. However, both are extremely smart and athletic. Luck also had a nice Combine, while Griffin graduated from Baylor in 3 years and is pursuing a Masters.

The main difference I see between the two is that Luck has 2 years of elite statistical production in a Pro Style offense, while Griffin has 1 in a non-Pro Style offense. Griffin has elite arm strength and above average accuracy and decision making. Luck has above average arm strength and elite accuracy and decision making. Both are likable kids, winners, competitors with all the intangibles. Both will make great quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

Though this hurts Ray Rice’s fantasy value, Williams is a much needed veteran 2^nd back in town. They don’t have another proven back on the roster other than Rice. Williams is 34, but I think he has a little bit left in the tank and this isn’t an expensive deal at all, 2.5 million over 2 years.

Grade: A

Quarterback

Iowa

6-4 223

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #83

Draft Board Overall Quarterback Rank: #6

Rating: 71 (mid 3rd)

40 time: 4.93

3/23/11: Stanzi once again didn’t look great throwing, this time at his Pro Day. He’s still a solid mid round prospect, but I’m moving him down a bit. 

2/17/11: Ricky Stanzi isn’t going to amaze you with physical tools, but he has experience in a Pro Style offense and statistically had a very good year last year. He completed 64% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA as a season and 25 touchdowns to 6 picks. He did this, however, with a lot of his help from his running game and defense.

Iowa frequently would run the I formation, with two running backs. This is a Pro Style offense and Stanzi has the experience taking snaps under center, dropping back, he’s got very refined footwork, a smart decision maker who makes good reads, but he didn’t ever prove he could carry a team. He has an above average arm when he does throw, but he rarely needs to throw far downfield because he’s frequently operating out of 2^nd and 3^rd and shorts, with the defense keying in on the running game.

That being said, his above average arm, mature decision making, refined footwork, and Pro Style experience are going to be intriguing to a team in the 3^rd round range. He doesn’t need as much work as a lot of the quarterbacks in this class and he’s a relatively safe pick at quarterback. He’s not a huge upside guy. I don’t think he’ll end up a franchise quarterback. He’s got the arm strength, but I don’t think he was tested enough in college and he did show some inconsistencies.

He threw 15 picks to 17 touchdowns in 2009. He improved his decision making from 2009 to 2010, but he still played fairly inconsistently. He was very inconsistent at the Senior Bowl as well, though many note the strong leadership skills he displayed in the game, leading a touchdown drive down 17 points.

NFL Comparison: Chad Henne

 

 

Cornerback

Stanford

6-3 194

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #86

Draft Board Overall Cornerback Rank: #13

Rating: 70 (Late 3^rd)

40 time: 4.49

2/19/11: I was watching the Senior Bowl and I saw this one cornerback making play after play and my reaction was “who the hell is that kid?” Turns out he was Stanford cornerback Richard Sherman, a mid-week injury replacement. I was instantly intrigued. He looked like Chris Cook, another prospect I overlooked going into Senior Bowl week last year, that I eventually fell in love with as a prospect. Cook ended up going 34^th overall to the Vikings.

I had to do more research. I found out he was listed at either 6-2 or 6-3, and 190-195, a little skinny but definitely good size. He was a former wide receiver, who had only played the cornerback position for two years, which instantly reminded me of Sam Shields, the 2010 undrafted free agent, former wide receiver turned cornerback who only had one year experience at the position. He ended up being a huge part of the Packers Super Bowl run this year.

He’s certainly raw on tape, but I love his upside. For someone who has been playing the position for 2 years, he’s very instinctial. He doesn’t look like a former wide receiver, with the exception of his size and ball skills. He needs some work on technique. He had one huge mental blunder at the end of the half in the Senior Bowl that should have led to an allowed touchdown, but Andy Dalton underthrew a wide open Leonard Hankerson significantly (almost ended up a pick).

However, he could excel as a deep cover corner, an athletic cornerback with great and ball skills, and very instinctual play that’s only going to get better with more experience. He struggles against the run and needs to bulk up about 10 pounds without losing athleticism to become less of a liability against the run. I don’t think he can play free safety as some as saying he should. He has the height, but he lacks the run stopping and tackling abilities a safety needs. He has Antonio Cromartie type upside with his athleticism and ball skills, but his weaknesses as a press corner and as a run stopper.

NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Antonio Cromartie

 

 

This Seymour trade keeps getting worse and worse for the Raiders. Not only did they give up a first round pick to get him and give him roughly 12.5 million dollars in 2010 with the franchise tag, now they are giving him 30 more million dollars over the next 2 years, 22.5 guaranteed, which means that 4 years of Seymour (from ages 29-33) have cost the Raiders a first rounder and 50 million dollars. Seymour might have been top 5 at his position when he was 28, but now at age 31, he’s not and he certainly shouldn’t be paid like he’s top 5 at his position, in a contract that ends when he’s 33.

Grade: D

 

 

Richard Marshall actually had a great season in 2011. Among cornerbacks who played at least 60% of their team’s snaps, he was 12^th in QB rating allowed, allowing a 51.9% completion percentage, 7.3 YPA, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s had a pretty up and down career. He was ProFootballFocus’ 98th ranked cornerback out of 100 in 2010 and only got a one year deal as a free agent.

However, he’s only 27 and he was named his team’s defensive MVP by Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton this season with his ability to play outside at cornerback, line up inside on the slot, and also play safety. The Dolphins have a major need at slot cornerback and safety and they’re getting him at a pretty good deal, 3 years, 16 million, with 6 million guaranteed.

Grade: B

 

 

Wide receiver

LSU

6-3 210

Draft board overall prospect rank: #44

Draft board overall wide receiver rank: #6

Overall rating: 77 (2nd round)

40 time: 4.55

Games watched: LSU/Mississippi State, LSU/Florida, LSU/Alabama, Arkansas/LSU, Georgia/LSU, LSU/Western Kentucky, LSU/Alabama (Part 2)

Positives

·         Great size

·         Physical with cornerbacks

·         A good blocker

·         Reliable hands

·         An end zone threat

·         Pro style experience

·         Solid route runner

·         Played against top competition

·         Good production in conservative offense in 2011 (53 catches for 917 yards and 8 touchdowns)

·         Wide catch radius

·         Good outside receiver

·         Tough to tackle

·         Solid speed for his size

·         Flashes elite abilities

Negatives

·         Only one season of strong production

·         Never had elite production

·         Really struggled against Dre Kirkpatrick in their 2 matchups (5 catches for 32 yards)

·         Incredibly inconsistent (7 games of 3 catches or fewer in 2011)

·         Still raw

·         Not smooth out of breaks

·         Lacks top end speed

NFL Comparison: Brandon LaFell

A prospect getting some late 1^st round buzz is Reuben Randle. The big 6-3 receiver has good size and speed and had good production even in a conservative offense at LSU last season. He certainly looks like a first round talent at times, but after watching a lot of LSU’s games, it’s clear that he’s incredibly inconsistent. There are some games like the Arkansas game where he is incredibly dominant. Randle caught 9 passes for 132 yards in that game, over 50% of his team’s aerial production.

However, he also had 7 games where he had 3 or fewer catches. Some of this has to do with the inconsistencies of quarterbacks Jordan Jefferson and Jarret Lee, but some of it was also his fault. Against Georgia, Randle really struggled against Brandon Boykin, a much smaller cornerback. The 5-9 Boykin is a good player who is expected to go in the 2^nd or 3^rd round, but it was a matchup he should have won and he didn’t.

Jordan Jefferson played awful in that game, but Boykin blanketed Randle, holding him to 2 catches for 15 yards. He was targeted early and often, but he just wasn’t open. The smaller cornerback was in better position all night and timed his leaps better, getting 2 pass deflections. Randle also really struggled against Alabama’s Dre Kirkpatrick, combing for 5 catches for 32 yards in 2 games this season against Alabama.

Randle compares to another former LSU wide receiver, Brandon LaFell. LaFell is a big receiver and a good blocker like Randle and had good production in LSU’s conservative offense. There was a time when LaFell had some first round buzz, but he eventually went in the 3^rd round. He’s now a solid, but unspectacular #2 receiver in Carolina. In just his 2nd season, he had 36 catches for 613 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2011.

Randle figures to go in the 2^nd round, with an outside shot at the end of the 1^st round if there’s a run of receivers. Either way, he figures to be the 5^th wide receiver off the board behind Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Stephen Hill. That puts him securely in the top 40 picks. Options for him include Houston (26), New England (27 or 31), St. Louis (33 or 39), Indianapolis (34), Minnesota (35), Cleveland (37), and Jacksonville (38).

 

 

Outside Linebacker 

Georgia

5-11 235

40 time: 4.72

Draft board overall prospect rank: #205

Draft board outside linebacker rank: #16

Overall rating: 53*

3/1/10: Put on some weight which led me to move them up my chart. However, didn’t carry the weight well. Ran a 4.72 so I’m moving him back down.

2/27/10: Expected to weigh in at 225 pounds, Curran weighed 239 and appears to have bulked up in a good way since the end of last season. If this doesn’t effect his 40 time, this will help him because it increases his scheme versatility.

1/23/10: Nothing but potential right now, he’s a prototypical cover 2 linebacker, but he needs to get bigger than 5-11 225. He moves well and is all over the ball with 231 tackles over the last 2 years, but he is not big enough for the NFL, which is why I was puzzled by his decision to declare this year at only 21. He’s probably looking at the 3^rd round as a project or maybe round 2 if some cover 2 team falls in love with him.

            11/18/09: Rennie Curran is a very fast and athletic outside linebacker who takes good routes to the ball, but he’s extremely raw and needs to add some bulk without losing speed. He’s listed as 222 pounds and while that’s a cut 222 pounds, he’ll need to add at least 10 pounds to be anything other than a safety in the NFL. At 230 pounds, he would make an excellent cover 2 linebacker and since he may be forced out this year as a junior due to the threat of a 2011 rookie pay scale, I would definitely take the risk on him and trust that he would put on the necessary weight if I were a cover 2 team or any team that uses a zone defense drafting in the early 2^nd round or maybe even late 1^st. He is hurt some by his position, but he’s a tackling machine and can cover a zone very quickly. He has shown great skill in zone in college and he takes excellent routes to the ball. He’s a good fundamental tackler, but he needs to add bulk otherwise running backs are just going to break him with ease. There are plenty of running backs in the NFL that weigh more than 222 pounds, that have much stronger, more explosive legs and core, and that are also faster than him. He doesn’t have great hands, or at least not that I can tell. He doesn’t have an interception in college. His drop back into a zone is good though and he’s a pretty good cover linebacker for his age, just turned 21 last week. The Derrick Brooks comparisons are very premature. Even if he puts on the 10 pounds, he is not as good of a cover linebacker as Brooks was. Brooks was a superb leader and one of the best fundamental tacklers of the decade and he also fills space faster than almost any linebacker I’ve ever seen. Curran does those things well, with the exception of maybe the leadership, but he’s not on Brooks’ level. He is only 5-11 which hurts a lot more than it helps in the NFL. However, he’s an excellent prospect if you run any type of zone defense, though he’ll really struggle in man defense because he’s way too small.

NFL Comparison: Jamar Williams

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here