Month: September 2012

Cleveland Browns: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-3

In a year where up is down and down is up, one thing has remained constant, the Browns suck. Of the only 2 remaining 0-3 teams left in the NFL, the Browns are the one that isn’t even the slightest bit surprising. They are currently in the lead in the Blow for Barkley sweepstakes and should remain on the pole throughout the season.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 50 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 19 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 50 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 carries

WR Greg Little: 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 targets on 48 pass plays, 1 drop, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

RE Juqua Parker: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Week 4 Fantasy Football Drops

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Fantasy Football Drops

Hey guys! I know what you’re thinking. Week 4 is approaching and by now you absolutely hate all of your useless sleepers you picked up ages ago in your draft and you’re itching to get your hands on some of these shiny new studs. But you’re afraid to pull the trigger on letting go of a potential handcuff or sleeper. That’s where I come in.

Here’s 5 guys owned in over 50% of leagues that you should feel free to jump ship on if you have the chance to pick up a new stud.

  1. Jonathan Dwyer, PIT (owned in 50.1% of leagues) – I’m with you. I thought for sure he would be the saving grace of the Steelers’ run game this fall before Mendenhall got back, but look at the facts. It’s Redman’s job, and when it’s not Redman’s job it’s the young Batch’s job, and when it’s not the young Batch’s job it’s Rainey’s job. And pretty soon it will be Mendenhall’s job again. Too much uncertainty, time to bail on him.
  2. Mike Williams, TB (owned in 57.6% of leagues) – Again, I’m with you. I thought for sure this would be a bounce back year for Williams. I thought VJax would gobble up all the coverage and leave Williams free to repeat his rookie season, but that’s not the case. His targets are low, and if you’re starting him you’re just praying for a TD reception, which are impossible to predict.
  3. Felix Jones, DAL (owned in 71.6% of leagues) – Don’t be that guy who won’t stop claiming Felix Jones is primed for his break out year. Just don’t. Felix Jones will never have a break out year, and soon he will quietly disappear into fantasy irrelevance.
  4. Toby Gerhart, MIN (owned in 80% of leagues) – Unless you own AP in a deep league (12+ teams) you don’t need Gerhart. AP is a superhuman monster who needs no backing up. Nothing more to see here.
  5. Roy Helu, WAS (owned in 80.6% of leagues) – Roy Helu will probably have a 20+ point game at some point this year. The problem is you have no idea when that will happen, and he’ll have a dozen < 5 point performances. He’s not worth the headache.

There you have it, 5 guys you should drop with confidence. Now go check out this to see who to replace them with.

Kate Potter is an amateur football analyst and a semi-pro fantasy football player. She freelances for several sports websites and helps manage NFL Betting Lines Guide, a unique betting experience which compares all the betting lines for the top sports gambling sites and offers betters a look at the best line available.

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Week 4 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

RB Tashard Choice (Buffalo)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Fred Jackson is hurt and now so is CJ Spiller. Tashard Choice looked good in their absence this week, rushing for 91 yards on 20 carries. He should continue to get the bulk of the carries until one of them returns. He should be owned in all formats because he could be starting this week against New England.

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.1%

Locker is 67 of 104 (64.4%) for 781 yards (7.5 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in 3 games. That’s not too shabby. He looked much more comfortable in his 3rd career start last week with his top two receivers back healthy, completing 29 of 42 for 378 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also adds a little bit on the ground with 67 yards on 8 carries (sadly more than Chris Johnson has all year). Pick him up because he’s startable as a bye week filler or a low end QB1 in deep leagues (he’s been my starting QB in a 14 team league all year).

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.2%

Christian Ponder is the most improved of the five 2nd year quarterbacks. Percy Harvin has emerged as a legitimate #1 receiver now than the coaching staff is using him properly. Kyle Rudolph has stepped up in his 2nd season and his offensive line is doing a much better job. He’s completed 68 of 97 for 713 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions through 3 games and going 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 49ers proves he can do it against tough competition. He’s also rushed for 41 yards and a score. Pick him up because he’s startable as a bye week filler.

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.6%

Through 3 games, Rudolph has been Ponder’s 2nd favorite target, catching 13 passes for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a low end starting tight end and a great bye week filler.

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.0%

For the 2nd straight week, Bilal Powell has stolen some of Shonn Greene’s carries and looked better running the football than he has. He could continue to eat into Greene’s carries and eventually could be the starter. Greene just isn’t very good. He’s worth a bench stash.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.0%

Michael Turner struggled in the first 2 games and as a result, the Falcons decided to get Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense this week. Rodgers had almost as many touches (15) as Turner (16). Though Turner ran better than he had in the first 2 games, (Turner did outgain Rodgers 81 to 67, both scored a touchdown), but this could still be a sign of things to come. Turner is an aging back and who has only run well in 1 of 3 starts and Rodgers is a better fit for their pass heavier offense. He’s worth a bench stash.

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

If you need a bye week filler tight end over the next few weeks, give this guy a look. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistent and he’s caught 15 passes for 206 yards in the first 3 games, though he has yet to score. You can do better than him, but you can do a lot worse.

WR Julian Edelman (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.6%

Just as I expected, Edelman was a big part of the offense with Aaron Hernandez out as he was targeted a team leading 7 times in the first half. Unfortunately, his production wasn’t great as he left with a hand injury, so he caught just 4 passes for 28 yards and a touchdown, but he should be back next week and he should be equally involved in the offense. He’s worth a bench stash at the very least.

To see who to drop, click here.

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Inconsistency of turnovers

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks

I talk a lot about the inconsistency of turnovers on a week to week basis in my picks. Here’s a little bit more into that and why I prefer to rely on yards per play differential rather than turnover differential.

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 6 or more win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 4 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 4 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 3 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 2 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 1 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 0 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 1 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 2 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.2 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 4 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 5 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.6 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 6 or more win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

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Colts’ Austin Collie listed as probable, Dwight Freeney won’t play

stevenlourie Colts, News

Austin Collie suffered a concussion this preseason, his 4th in the last 21 months, but it was a minor one and it looked like he would be back for week 1. He practiced before week 1, but was not cleared and the same thing happened week 2. It’s very likely he just did not get clearance from a doctor. This week, he went through the same routine at the beginning of the week, but it looks like he’s finally been cleared as the Colts have listed him as probable on their injury list.

It’s unclear what his role is, but the uncertain makes both him and Donnie Avery poor fantasy options this week. It’s worth noting that, before the injury, Collie was Andrew Luck’s favorite target in the preseason and the last time he had a capable quarterback, he ranked 9th in the league in yards per route run in 2010, before getting hurt. He should be owned in all leagues and monitored because he could end up being startable in the future as the #2 option on a good passing attack.

Meanwhile, top pass rusher Dwight Freeney is once again expected to miss this week. He’s been out since leaving week 1 with a high ankle sprain. Fortunately, the Colts have a bye next so there’s a good chance he’ll be back after that for week 5. The Jaguars, their opponent this week, are missing two starters on the offensive line so the Colts should be able to pressure Blaine Gabbert, who tend to struggle under pressure, often, even without Freeney. They still have Robert Mathis and 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes showed some live in Freeney’s absence last week, with a sack and 2 quarterback hurries.

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Jets expect Darrelle Revis to play, rule Dustin Keller out

stevenlourie Jets, News

Darrelle Revis missed last week against the Steelers with a concussion and he was really missed as the Steelers beat the Jets 27-10 on the strength of a very strong performance from Ben Roethlisberger (24 of 31 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns) that probably would not have happened if Revis were in the lineup. This week, however, the Jets get Revis back for a divisional clash with the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins put up 35 points on the board against a pathetic Raiders defense last week, but that probably won’t happen again this week. Reggie Bush won’t have the 172 yards and 2 touchdowns he had last week against a perennially good Jets run defense that held the Steelers to 66 yards on 28 carries last week, thanks to the return of stud nose tackle Sione Pouha. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill, who was 18 of 30 for 200 yards and a touchdown last week, will find life much harder without Bush exploding for a huge game and with Revis and Antonio Cromartie covering his crappy receivers instead of Patrick Lee and Shawntae Spencer.

Still, the Dolphins are at home and they have a sneaky good defense and have dating back to last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring. Mark Sanchez is coming off a horrendous game (10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown) and if he continues to struggle, the Dolphins could win a close one at home. In won’t help that he’ll be without starting tight end Dustin Keller, his leading receiver in 2011, once again in this one. The Jets are also in a dreaded breather game situation as favorites before being underdogs and after losing as underdogs. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets play the 49ers next week. The Jets should be on upset alert.

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Cowboys rule Jay Ratliff and Phil Costa out again, as well as Gerald Sensabaugh

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

As they were last week, the Cowboys will be without the middle of their offensive line and defensive line once again this week as center Phil Costa will miss with back problems and nose tackle Jay Ratliff will miss with an ankle problem. Costa left during their week 1 game against the Giants, while Ratliff has yet to play a snap this season after injuring himself in the preseason.

Ryan Cook, who was acquired from the Dolphins for a late round pick right before final cuts, will get the start once again at center. He played surprisingly well last week, but he represents a weakness on the offensive line for the Cowboys, as do new starters Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings. Livings was awful in 2011 with the Bengals and Bernadeau is a career backup and former 7th round pick so I have no idea why the Cowboys paid him starter’s money to start for them. In Ratliff’s absence, defensive end Sean Lissemore has played more inside, while Josh Price-Brent has been starting at nose tackle. Defense hasn’t really been an issue for the Cowboys so far this year, as they rank 10th in yards per play, but Ratliff was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle last year, so the sooner he returns, the better.

The Cowboys will be without one other starter this week on defense, a new injury, as starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh is expected to miss. Sensabaugh is a solid starter at a position that is otherwise a weakness for the Cowboys. Mediocre starter Barry Church, who is also nursing an injury, will play and Danny McCray will play in the absence of Sensabaugh, who is listed as doubtful with a calf problem. It’s a weakness area.

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Rams list Steven Jackson as a game time decision, rule Michael Brockers out

stevenlourie News, Rams

Steven Jackson left the game and did not return last week against the Redskins for reasons many thought were related to a penalty. However, the Rams denied that was the reason and denied a benching at all saying Jackson left the game with a groin injury. Almost a week later, that appears to be true and Jackson is reportedly going to be a game time decision. The good news for his fantasy owners is that the game is a 1 PM start so you’ll have your full lineup of options available if you find out before the game that he can’t go. Backup Daryl Richardson, who rushed for 83 yards on 15 carries in Jackson’s absence last week, should be owned in all formats and makes for a possible flex play if he starts, even against a tough Chicago defense.

Jackson isn’t the only injury St. Louis has to worry about. Eerily similar to what happened last year, the Rams are getting killed with injuries on the offensive line. Scott Wells is probably done for the season. He was signed to a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal this offseason to solidify the center position. Robert Turner, an unproven starter, moved from left guard to center to fill the void and then Turner’s replacement at left guard, 5th round rookie Rokevious Watkins, also got hurt. He will miss this week again, so veteran journeyman Quinn Ojinnaka will once again start in his absence. Meanwhile, oft injured left tackle Rodger Saffold will miss this week and a few more with a knee problem, meaning Wayne Hunter, who was awful with the Jets at right tackle last year, will start at left tackle.

The good news is that Sam Bradford was 8 of 13 with a touchdown under pressure last week, in spite of 2 drops. Good quarterbacks can succeed in spite of poor offensive lines. Bradford couldn’t do it last year, but the 2010 #1 overall pick really looks like a different quarterback this year. If that’s true, the Rams will remain competitive, as they have been so far this season. Bradford gets his toughest test yet this week against the Chicago Bears. One other injury note, rookie 1st round pick Michael Brockers will once again miss this week. He’s yet to play this season with a high ankle sprain and the Rams rank dead last against the run without him. Michael Bush, who will be the every down back in place of the injured Matt Forte, makes for a very intriguing fantasy option this week.

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Packers unsure about Greg Jennings for Monday Night Football

stevenlourie News, Packers

The Packers were without Greg Jennings on Thursday Night Football with a groin injury and despite having 11 days between games, they are still unsure about the star receiver’s availability for Monday Night Football against the Seahawks. He’s been limited in practice all week, though, for what it’s worth, he says he’ll play, saying “It’s going to be something I’m going to have to push through right now. If I can get close to 100 percent, that’s all I’m looking for. I’m not looking to be 100 percent because that will never happen, ever, probably in my career. Ever.” The Packers have listed him as questionable.

At this point, it sounds more likely than not that he’ll be out there, but he will probably be limited and facing a tough Seattle defense, he’s less than an ideal fantasy option, especially since he does play on Monday Night Football. He doesn’t sound like a true game time decision, but if he’s a late scratch, you could be left without another option and he doesn’t have a true handcuff because in his absence, James Jones caught just 2 passes for -1 yards last week. Jones and Randall Cobb should continue to split snaps in his absence and cancel each other out in fantasy. Unless you have a startable option in that game (not a whole lot of those after Jordy Nelson, who should be in your lineup regardless), I’d say bench Jennings unless you absolutely have to start him.

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Steelers rule out James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Rashard Mendenhall again

stevenlourie News, Steelers

The Steelers have an early bye week this season, week 4, and it’s coming at the right time as they have several key players nursing injuries. However, before they can get to the bye, they’ll have to go to Oakland to play the Oakland Raiders without starting safety Troy Polamalu, starting outside linebacker James Harrison, and starting running back Rashard Mendenhall once again.

Harrison and Mendenhall both are yet to play this season with knee problems and Polamalu will miss his 2nd straight game this week with a calf problem. As talented as Mendenhall and Harrison are, Polamalu is the one they need healthy the most. The played well against the Jets last week without him, but prior to last week, over the last 3 years, when he plays, the Steelers are 27-8 and allow 14.4 points per game and without him, they’re 6-7 and allow 21.5 points per game. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.

Still even without that trio, they have an obvious advantage on paper over the lowly Raiders, who are also very banged up with injuries and coming off an embarrassing 35-13 loss at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers do have a tendency to fall flat on the road over the last 2 years, especially against inferior opponents. This team is -40 on the road since the start of last week, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, heading into a bye, they should be very focused and dominate the Raiders as they’re supposed to. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye.

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