Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)
The Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, therefore they should beat them in New York right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the Jets are a heavily public lean, but I disagree for several reasons. The first one is that Darrelle Revis went down late in that game. The Jets have done a great job of bouncing back from that loss and their subsequent 34-0 home loss to the 49ers the following week and have covered in 3 straight.
Antonio Cromartie is playing out of his mind right now since Revis went down, allowing 7 catches for 109 yards on 22 attempts, with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass deflections. The defensive and offensive fronts are playing like they have before, allowing the team’s run offense and run defense to improve. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t miss Revis, especially against a Dolphin team that hasn’t been playing too badly themselves since that game, going 2-1 SU and ATS with that one loss in overtime to the Cardinals and wins against the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Rams in Miami.
Besides, the Dolphins are in a good spot given that their previous matchup was an overtime loss. Teams are 14-8 ATS when trying to avenge a divisional overtime loss since 2008. They’re also 49-31 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 1-3 points in that same period, including 27-16 ATS when the revenge game is a same season game.
On the other side, the Jets are in a bad spot. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-14 ATS since 1989. They’ll be awfully flat after coming so close to pulling a huge upset against a division rival. Meanwhile, home favorites are 10-23 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-16 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.
We’re also getting line value with the Dolphins. Both measures of “real” line suggest this should be a pick em as Miami ranks 18th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Jets rank 27th in both. We’re getting points with the better team in the better spot. We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean as the public likes the Jets. I’ve mentioned many times before I like favorites this week because I expect the favorite/dog disparity to close up (dogs are 63-39 ATS and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 ATS in least at the last decade). However, it’s perfectly fine to make a big play on a dog as long as they aren’t a heavy public dog.
Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)
Sharps lean: MIA 22 NYJ 6
Final update: 2nd biggest sharps lean of the week. I’m going to add a unit. Action on Jets, but line has fallen.
Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +115
Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-110) 4 units