Month: October 2012

Cleveland Browns: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+1)

Record: 0-5

I know the Browns lost, but I’m still moving them ahead of the Jaguars. I probably should have done that last week. Before last week’s loss, they hung within 10 of their first 4 opponents and even though they lost by 14 last week, they still led right until before halftime. Jacksonville, meanwhile, got blown out once again losing at home by 38. Cleveland is ahead of them, for now, by just a little. Both teams suck.

Studs

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 85 yards (37 after contact) and a touchdown on 17 attempts, 6 broken tackles, caught 5 passes for 47 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

LG Jason Pinkston: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 1 attempt

LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Jordan Norwood: Caught 9 passes for 81 yards on 9 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

Duds

TE Ben Watson: Caught 1 pass for 1 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown, 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 3 pass block snaps

WR Greg Little: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 1 drop

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 6 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, 2 penalties

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 31 (-1)

Record: 1-4

I know they have a win and the Browns don’t, but this is the worst team in the NFL. The Browns have at least been competitive in all of their games. The Jaguars didn’t even look impressive in their lone win over the Colts, needing a late 80 yard touchdown pass to win. They’re tied for the league worst in yards per play differential, while Cleveland ranks 23rd. They have scored 35 points fewer than the Browns, while allowing only 1 fewer, and have the league’s 2nd worst points differential, only ahead of Tennessee, who has played a much tougher schedule. Since looking serviceable in the opener, Blaine Gabbert has completed 57 of 107 (53.3%) for 536 yards (5.0 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, which is comparably bad to his rookie numbers. Head Coach Mike Mularkey insists he’s not regressing. He’s right. He’s always sucked.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

FS Dwight Lowery: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LE Austen Lane: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

RB Maurice Jones-Drew: Rushed for 56 yards (37 after contact) on 12 carries, caught 1 pass for 3 yards on 3 attempts, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Mike Thomas: Caught 4 passes for 15 yards on 7 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Derek Cox: Allowed 6 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

LOLB Russell Allen: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

DT Tyson Alualu: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

Week 3, the Steelers traveled to play a significantly inferior team, missing two of their top defenders, and yet were still heavily bet by the public as road favorites. They lost outright and a lot of people lost a lot of money. 3 weeks later, the Steelers have had a bye, a 2 point win at home over an Eagles team that once again lost the turnover battle, and the Steelers are in the same exact situation. Apparently the public hasn’t learned because Pittsburgh is once again being heavily bet by the public (and you know how much I love to bet against heavy public leans).

The Steelers absolutely suck on the road against bad teams outside of the division under Mike Tomlin. They are 3-12 ATS as 3+ road favorites outside of the division since Tomlin took over in 2007. They just don’t really seem to care about these games. On top of the Oakland loss, the Steelers won by just 4 in Kansas City against Tyler Palko last year and by just 3 in Indianapolis against Curtis Painter and the eventually 2-14 Colts last year, so don’t tell me the Titans can’t cover this game because they’re not talented enough. None of those teams were either.

On top of that, they will be missing Troy Polamalu and probably LaMarr Woodley. Both were lost last week and on a short week, the odds are really against them being healthy enough to play by Thursday Night. Polamalu has already been ruled out. Against Oakland, both Polamalu and James Harrison were out. Woodley’s loss is easily equal to the loss of Harrison (at this stage in their respective careers), while Polamalu’s injury is the one that really hurts.

Excluding last week, during which Polamalu left in the middle, the Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Last week, the Steelers had held the Eagles scoreless on 3 drives before Polamalu went out and ended up giving up 14 points on their next 5 drives. His absence will be huge.

Besides, we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Titans. The Steelers have an even yards per play differential and that’s not taking into account their current injury situation or their general struggles on the road against inferior non-divisional teams. If you take the difference of these two team’s yards per play differentials, you get .7. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. Given that, this line should be -1.5 in favor of Pittsburgh, so we’re getting 4.5 points of line value with the Titans at +6, at the very least.

Besides, as strange as it may seem, the Titans are in a good spot coming off back-to-back losses by 20+. Teams in that situation are 33-16 ATS since 2002 and the Titans covered in this exact situation week 3, pulling the home upset over the superior Lions, who were also, not surprisingly, heavily publicly bet. Teams in that situation tend to be both desperate and undervalued and I believe the Titans are both.

Despite the Steelers’ injuries and a lackluster home performance, this line has moved 2 points from -4 to -6 since last week, most likely because of how bad the Titans looked in Minnesota. Meanwhile, at 1-4, this is really the Titans’ last stand. Remember, this team won 9 games last year, so they probably had high hopes for this season. Betting against an undervalued, desperate team is never a good idea.

Tennessee is also a home team on Thursday Night. Home teams are 67-48 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989. Traveling on a short week is rarely a recipe for success. Teams are just 21-23 ATS as home dogs, which makes sense because proven, veteran teams are often much better prepared for a short week like this, which cancels out any advantage of not having to travel.

However, while Pittsburgh is a proven, veteran team, if they have trouble getting up for bad, non-divisional teams on the road normally, why would they be any more likely to do so on Thursday Night, especially with a key divisional match up in Cincinnati on the schedule next. They failed to cover last year on Thursday game and that was at HOME against divisional Cleveland. Meanwhile, while home dogs typically don’t have a big advantage on Thursday Night, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, which is something. In this situation, St. Louis covered last week.

This is at the very least a co-pick of the week. It might be my only pick of the week, but it’s at least one of them. I haven’t made a 5+ unit play since week 3, opting to go with three 4-unit co-picks of the week in each of the last 2 weeks instead of a 5-unit pick of the week. I went 5-1 in those games and I was also 2-1 in picks of the week from weeks 1-3, so I’m feeling really confident and want to make at least one 5 unit pick this week. There may be more, but this one is one I really like.

Pittsburgh sucks in this situation and won’t be any better on a short week, especially with a key divisional game on the horizon. They’re also missing two very key defenders, which this spread doesn’t take into account and they’re not playing well overall anyway. Tennessee, meanwhile, is both undervalued and desperate in a “last stand” game at home on a Thursday Night. Finally, we’re getting significant line value and a chance to bet against a heavy public lean. There’s really nothing I don’t like about Tennessee +6 this week. I’m also putting a unit on the under because the under is 67-50 on Thursday night since 1989, including 4-0. Teams are often unprepared offensively on a short week.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units

Over/Under: Under 42.5

Week 6 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

WR Devery Henderson (New Orleans)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.6%

With Lance Moore out and Jimmy Graham playing hurt, Devery Henderson stepped up big time for the Saints, catching 8 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown. Unless the injury situation improves, he might be their #2 option going forward, which would make him startable. At the very least, he’s worth a bench stash.

RB William Powell (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

The Cardinals have lost Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams for the season in back-to-back weeks. William Powell is hardly proven, but he would seem to be the favorite to be the lead back going forward. He was already the 3rd down back and they really like him as a receiver and a blocker and he had a great preseason as a runner to make the roster, leading the league with 249 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries. Look for him to lead a running back committee with change of pace back LaRod Stephens-Howling and former practice squad back Alfonso Smith.

RB Alex Green (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.8%

Cedric Benson left the Packers’ loss to the Colts with an injury and he’s now in a walking boot, so his return for next week looks very, very questionable, at the very least. He could be out a couple of weeks and Alex Green figures to be the lead back in his absence because the coaching staff really isn’t a fan of James Starks. Green looked good in limited action in relief of Benson, rushing for 55 yards on 9 carries and adding an 8 yard catch.

RB Brandon Bolden (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 20.3%

Bolden may be the #2 back in New England, but he’s rushed for 191 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries in the last 2 weeks combined. Suddenly a team that loves to run the football, the Patriots could continue to give him touches going forward. He’s worth a bench stash.

RB Kendall Hunter (San Francisco)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.9%

Another team that loves to run the football is the 49ers. In the last 2 weeks, Hunter has rushed for 137 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in the last 2 games. He seems to be eating into Frank Gore’s work load on a weekly basis and while that’s not enough for him to be startable, Gore is not exactly the most durable player, so Hunter is worth a bench stash.

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Week 5 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks

Week 5 Results

ATS: 8-6 +0 units/-$150

SU: 10-4

Upset Picks: 1-1 +$425

Over/Under: 1-0-1 +$100

Total: +$375

Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 40-34-3 +18 units/+$905

SU: 46-31

Upset Picks: 13-15 +$425

Over/Under: 3-0-1 +300

Total: +1630

Survivor: 3-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF)

Public Results ATS*: 34-42-1 -25 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Atlanta Falcons Week 5 Injury Report

stevenlourie Falcons, News

Probable

DT Jonathan Babineaux (Groin)

WR Julio Jones (Hand)

OLB Stephen Nicholas (Thigh)

CB Christopher Owens (Head)

RB Antone Smith (Hamstring)

Questionable, likely to play

N/A

Questionable, game time decision

C Todd McClure (Pectoral)

S William Moore (Hip)

RB Lousaka Polite (Hamstring)

Doubtful/Out

TE Michael Palmer (Shoulder)

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Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

There’s a reason I saved this one for last. I don’t really have much of a clue. The line is -3 in favor of Atlanta. These two teams have a difference in yards per play differential of .9. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for Washington for home field advantage and you get that the real line should be…-3 in favor of Atlanta. Meanwhile, there aren’t any prominent trends at play here.

There is one trend that used to be prominent at play here. Since 1989, home dogs coming off a road win are 101-50 ATS against a team coming off a home win. However, since 2002, that trend is just 42-33, meaning from 1989 to 2002, teams in this situation were a ridiculous 59-18, but since then, it’s kind of died down so I don’t really know if that means Washington is going to win.

The public really likes Atlanta, but this line is really small and I don’t know if I’m comfortable picking Washington to win here. This is still a horrible defensive team, as much as they can put points on the board. Meanwhile, the sharps are completely split on this one. I’m going with the home team just because I think last week dealt them a wake up call, their near loss at home to Carolina, and it’s not like this team to sleepwalk through 2 games in a row.

Under Mike Smith, their a whopping 17-3 ATS off a loss and though they did though they didn’t lose last week, it might still have the same effect on this team. For the record, they’re 5-4 ATS off a close win under Mike Smith. I think they’ll win, improve to 5-0, and cover the 3, but if I did zero unit picks, this would be one.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Washington covers)

Sharps lean: WAS 7 ATL 9

Atlanta Falcons 31 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Saints

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Last year, the Chargers started 4-1. It was a shock to many people before they’re normally horrible early in the season, especially compared to later in the season. Prior to last year, The Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-4 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. However, their 4-1 record was explainable because they were beating up on bad teams like Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, and Denver (Prebow). Eventually, they went on a 6 game losing streak, which essentially eliminated them from the playoffs, despite a strong 4-1 finish, as usual.

This year, they are 3-1, the 2nd straight year they’ve had a winning September record under Philip Rivers and still only the 2nd time in that time period that they’ve had a winning September record. Have they ended their normal September woes or is this going to be a repeat of last year? I lean more towards the latter. They’re not going to be as bad as they were last year. I still think they’ll win the division, but it’s worth noting who their 3 early season wins were against: Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City, who are all 1-3. Meanwhile, they got blown out at home by Atlanta and in spite of their 3-1 record, they do have a negative yards per play differential.

The Saints, however, are 0-4. In spite of that, you could still argue this is the 2nd best team they’ve played all year. Despite their record, I don’t believe the Saints are awful. They won 13 games last year and even without Sean Payton, they still have Drew Brees. They looked pretty good last week, almost winning in Lambeau Field and they should continue to look improved as they continue to adjust to life without Sean Payton. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are actually 6-2 ATS since 1989 as favorites of more than 3. This is truly New Orleans’ last stand and in the Superdome (where they were 9-0 ATS and SU last year), I expect this proud, veteran team to put up one final huge effort to save their season.

Meanwhile, this is the type of game San Diego normally loses. Facing Denver next week, they’re not going to be focused for a 0-4 non-conference opponent. They are just 4-8 ATS under Norv Turner in a non-conference game before a divisional game. They don’t do well with non-conference games in general, as illustrated by that Atlanta game. It’s only a small play because I haven’t really been able to get a read on either of these teams thus far this year (1-3 on San Diego’s game and 0-4 on New Orleans’ games) and because the “real” line formula says we do have line value with San Diego and because the public likes New Orleans too, but I do feel that New Orleans will play their best game of the season this week and do it against a San Diego team that has one of their patented “fall flat” games.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: NO 20 SD 6

Final update: Sharps really love New Orleans. I liked them to begin with, but I’m adding a unit. This is their last stand and San Diego has proven they don’t really care about non-conference games under Norv Turner with a divisional game up next. They head home to face Denver next week.

New Orleans Saints 31 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Jaguars

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

Blaine Gabbert doesn’t seem noticeably improved over last year. Since a solid showing in the opener, he’s 40 of 74 for 394 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He’s protecting the ball and not turning it over, but this offense simply has no explosion to it unless Maurice Jones-Drew is breaking off a bunch of big runs. Plus, turnovers are inconsistent on a week to week basis, so this offense, which ranks dead last in scoring, could get worse in the future. A tough matchup against Chicago is a very possible place for that to start.

Gabbert’s last 3 games have been especially poor. Against Houston, he had as many attempts as yards midway through the 3rd quarter and finished 7-19 for 53 yards. In a win in Indianapolis, he was 9 of 20 for 75 yards, up until an 80 yard touchdown to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work. Shorts and a huge day by Maurice Jones-Drew are the two reasons they won that game against the lowly Colts. Not Gabbert.

Last week, Cincinnati was missing their top 4 cornerbacks with injuries and using Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and Chris Crocker at cornerback. They stacked the box to stop MJD and Gabbert still went just 23 of 34 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He had all of his offensive linemen healthy in that one, so there was no excuse.

He’s absolutely horrible and the Jaguars might be the worst team in the league. Cleveland may be 0-4, but they’ve been competitive in all 4 games, while Jacksonville didn’t even look that impressive in their win. It’s going to be hard to pick them as anything less than touchdown underdogs going forward. Daryl Smith, their best defensive player arguably, is once again out for this one.

Meanwhile, Chicago has been exactly average this season, if you believe their yards per play differential. In spite of that, this line, -5, is equal to the “real” line, because of how poor Jacksonville has been in that area, ranking 31st, so there’s no line value with Jacksonville. If you believe Chicago is truly an average team, then there’s no line value with Chicago either, but I would argue they aren’t. You do need to add a human element to any calculation of any “real” line.

With the exception of their horrific showing in Green Bay week 2, they have won the yards per play battle in 3 of their 4 games. That week 2 performance is really skewing things and I think that’s not indicative of this team’s level of ability. Think about it, at least one team has completely shit the bed like that in all 4 Thursday Night games, even good teams. Arizona lost by 14 to St. Louis this week, despite coming in at 4-0. Carolina got destroyed by the Giants, even though they were favored. Baltimore, meanwhile, barely defeated Cleveland at home.

3 days is not enough time to prepare, which is why Thursday Night games always suck (blame Roger Goodell, as always), and I don’t really blame the Bears for being that unprepared, so I kind of disregard what happened in that game for Chicago. Aside from that, this team is a well above average team that has won every game by at least 16 points, including an impressive showing in Dallas last Monday. Jay Cutler, as much criticism as he takes, is 17-8 in the regular season with the Bears over the last 2 years. They’re also getting Matt Forte back closer to 100%, if not 100% this week, after he was limited on Monday Night, so I do think there’s line value with Chicago when you add a human element to the formulaic analysis.

Speaking of that win in Dallas on Monday Night, teams are 47-32 ATS since 2002 off a MNF win over 14 or more. That trend is even more powerful when the win was by 21 or more, going 28-11 ATS. I know the Bears didn’t win by 21, but they were leading by 24 until a late garbage time drive by the Cowboys when they had already given up and put in Kyle Orton. The logic is that teams that get a blowout victory on MNF typically carry that into the next week and for all intents and purposes Chicago DID blow out Dallas.

The public is all over the Bears, but I’m still going to take them in this one. Normally I love fading the public, especially on big leans, and this is the biggest public lean of the week, but I like the Bears enough to take them anyway coming off a huge MNF performance. I think we’re getting line value with them and it’s really, really tough to take the Jaguars, even at home, as anything more than touchdown underdogs. We don’t have touchdown protection with the Jaguars, so it’s a small play on the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharps lean: JAX 11 CHI 8

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still expect a Chicago blowout. Jacksonville is terrible.

Chicago Bears 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Chicago -5 (-110) 2 units

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