Month: November 2012

Baltimore Ravens: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 8-2

The Ravens are 8-2, but I’m still not sold. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about.

Studs

RG Marshal Yanda: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

MLB Dannell Ellerbe: 11 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Cary Williams: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

SS Bernard Pollard: Allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Paul Kruger: 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

Duds

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 40 yards (23 after contact) on 20 attempts, 1 fumble, caught 5 passes for 53 yards on 5 attempts

C Matt Birk: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 9 attempts

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 6 attempts on 35 pass block snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 11 (+3)

Record: 6-4

In order to go on a run, you have to be able to win ugly and win a game that you probably weren’t supposed to win. They have now won 5 of 6 since the bye and this close win wasn’t a fluke. It actually only improved their record in games decided by a touchdown or less to just 2-4 this season. They haven’t lost by more than a touchdown. They have a +57 points differential on the season, 4th in the loaded NFC, 8th in the NFL, and most important they’re hot. This is a scary team that can easily knock off an underwhelming Falcons team this week.

Studs

RE Da’Quan Bowers: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Michael Bennett: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

DT Gerald McCoy: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

RT DeMar Dotson: Allowed 4 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LT Donald Penn: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback hurries on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

WR Mike Williams: Caught 3 passes for 29 yards on 9 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch

SS Mark Barron: Allowed 2 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Leonard Johnson: 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 44 yards on 7 attempts

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 6-4

The Colts’ loss to the Patriots last week was a definite sign they haven’t quite arrived yet. They’ve beaten up on a bunch of bad teams and only have 1 win by more than a touchdown and that was against a 1-win Jacksonville team (who beat them earlier in the year). However, they have an easy schedule and a 2 game lead on everyone in the AFC except Cincinnati (5-5) for a playoff spot. They should make the playoffs, but once they get there, it doesn’t seem like they’re going to go anywhere.

Still, GM Ryan Grigson deserves the Executive of the Year award. No team turned over their roster from last year to this year more than the Colts. And it’s not just about Andrew Luck. I don’t even give him any credit for drafting Luck. 95 out of 100 people in his shoes would have taken him and the other 5 would have taken Robert Griffin and they wouldn’t have gone wrong either. It’s everything else. This team wasn’t a quarterback away or anything. They hadn’t drafted a Pro-Bowler since 2006 and Grigson came in this offseason and turned everything around.

And it wasn’t just personnel changes and it was the coaching staff, bringing in Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians. Unfortunately, Pagano hasn’t been able to be out there on the sideline in most of their games, but he deserves the credit for all of the work he did with this team in the offseason. You can’t just roll out of bed week 1 this much of an improved team. It takes a ton of work in the offseason and he’s also provided a huge emotional boost off the field. Arians, meanwhile, has been a major stabilizing force as their Interim Head Coach in Pagano’s absence and a strong offensive coordinator and play caller.

Studs

LT Anthony Castonzo: Allowed 1 sack on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 5 attempts

Duds

LG Joe Reitz: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

CB Josh Gordy: Allowed 5 catches for 65 yards on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Darius Butler: Allowed 7 catches for 75 yards on 10 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Cory Redding: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Record: 6-4

Last week: 9 (-1)

I have no idea what Mike Tomlin was thinking leaving Byron Leftwich out there when he was clearly hurt. There’s no real difference in talent level between him and Charlie Batch; in fact, I thought Batch should have been the starter in the first place after Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out. He’s a better fit for their quick throw, timing based offense and he’s always been decent and able to manage the game for them in the past when Roethlisberger has been hurt. I think they would have beaten Baltimore if Batch had started or if Batch had come in after Leftwich scored that touchdown and got hurt.

With Leftwich hurt, it looks like Batch will start until Roethlisberger gets back, which should be at least two more weeks. They play Cleveland and Baltimore in those 2 games and they should be able to go 1-1 in those 2 games (the Steelers are now 8-6 without Roethlisberger). As long as Roethlisberger returns by the playoffs, they should be fine. They’ve basically lost the division, but they should be able to make the playoffs. They have a 2 game lead over everyone else in the AFC for a playoff spot right now, except Cincinnati, who they own the tiebreaker against. If Polamalu can return for the playoffs too, that would also be very, very helpful to any of their Super Bowl ambitions. It’s unfortunate they’ll have to go on the road in the playoffs, without a division title, because they do struggle on the road generally.

Studs

RG Ramon Foster: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 5 attempts

LT Max Starks: Allowed 1 sack on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

RB Jonathan Dwyer: Rushed for 55 yards (26 after contact) on 12 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 3 catches for 26 yards on 3 attempts

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 8 catches for 62 yards on 12 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops

FS Ryan Clark: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB James Harrison: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

LE Cameron Heyward: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 2 assist, 1 stop

Duds

QB Byron Leftwich: 18 of 39 for 201 yards and 1 interception, 3 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 55.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 43 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 12, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Mike Wallace: Caught 4 passes for 26 yards on 7 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

RT Mike Adams: Allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 3 attempts

WR Jerricho Cotchery: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 5 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 penalties

RB Rashard Mendenhall: Rushed for 33 yards (18 after contact) on 11 attempts, caught 3 passes for 17 yards on 3 attempts

RE Brett Keisel: 1 quarterback hit on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 6-4

If the Cowboys win at home this week against the 4-6 Redskins and the Giants lose to the Packers, these two teams will be tied at 6-5 and the Cowboys be the favorite because they have the much easier schedule. The Cowboys host Philadelphia, go to Cincinnati, then host Pittsburgh and New Orleans, and then they go to Washington. The Giants, meanwhile, will go to Washington, host New Orleans (two games the Cowboys have two), but then they go to Baltimore and Atlanta (two games the Cowboys have already played), before heading home for Philadelphia (a same game). Every year there are 5 new playoff teams (17 straight years). If that’s going to happen again this year, Dallas pretty much has to make the playoffs.

Studs

RG Derrick Dockery: Did not allow a pressure on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 12 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 63 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch

RE Jason Hatcher: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

RT Doug Free: Allowed 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 69 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

C Mackenzy Bernadeau: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts

LT Jeremy Parnell:  Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

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Green Bay Packers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Record: 7-3

Last week: 13 (+0)

Of course, the one year I won’t shut up about things that happen every year is the one year they might not happen. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Well, the only team that is a candidate to do that is Chicago, who sits at 7-3, 2 games back of Atlanta, ½ game back of San Francisco, who has the tiebreaker, and tied with the Packers for even the divisional leader.

Every year, one team does the opposite and goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. All 4 teams who had a 1st round bye are 7-3 or better, right now, including these Packers. Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Of last year’s playoff teams, 9 already have 6 wins or fewer, 2 are at 5-5, and Detroit is at 4-6. The only thing that’s likely to happen is the opposite, one team who goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs (Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Minnesota).

Every year, there are 5 new playoff teams. Indianapolis and Chicago look likely to do so. Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Minnesota all both at 6-4 right now, but in order for them to both make the playoffs, they’d need either Green Bay or Chicago to miss the playoffs, but if Chicago misses than that’s counterproductive. For a 5th new playoff team to sneak in, Dallas will have to win the NFC East. Right now, the most improbable of the 5 teams out is Green Bay.

Basically for all of these scenarios to come true, Green Bay has to miss the playoffs. It’s certainly possible. They need to go at least 11-5 to assure themselves of the playoffs. They can go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. They do still have road games in New York (against the Giants), Chicago, and Minnesota, which won’t be easy. They also host Minnesota and Detroit (only home for Tennessee is really an easy game). However, they might be playing too well right now for their schedule to matter. I’m leaving them here for now, but we’ll see in a couple of weeks.

Studs

LT Marshall Newhouse: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Casey Hayward: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections

CB Davon House: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 sack on 1 blitz

MLB AJ Hawk: 9 solo tackles, 6 stops, allowed 4 catches for 10 yards on 5 attempts

SS Jerron McMillian: Allowed 1 catch for 24 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 quarterback hurries on 3 blitzes

LE Ryan Pickett: 3 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE BJ Raji: 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

Duds

LG Evan Dietrich-Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

RG Josh Sitton: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RT TJ Lang: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 88 yards on 5 attempts, 1 assist

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New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 15 (+3)

Record: 5-5

The Saints are red hot right now, but they’ll need to go at least 5-1 to make the playoffs. The NFC is loaded. If the playoffs started today, there would be two 6-4 teams outside of the playoffs (either Tampa Bay, Seattle, or Minnesota). The Saints are only in 9th place at best in the NFC right now (tied with Dallas). Looking at the rest of their schedule, it’s possible how they’re playing, but I don’t trust their defense enough. They still have to go to Atlanta and New York (to play the Giants) and Dallas and they have two tough games at home (Tampa Bay and San Francisco). Only their week 17 contest at home against Carolina can be considered “easy.”

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 20 of 27 for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 104.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 27 drop backs (0 sacks, 5 of 7, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown)

LT Jermon Bushrod: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

WR Lance Moore: Caught 2 passes for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 attempts on 16 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 5 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 penalty, no tackles

CB Elbert Mack: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes,

Duds

MLB Curtis Lofton: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle, did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes

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