Month: December 2012

Houston Texans: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 12-2

Net points per drive: 0.56 (6th)

DVOA: 13.3% (8th)

Weighted DVOA: 8.4% (10th)

Here’s why the AFC’s top-3 is so interesting. The Patriots have beaten the other two, but have the worst record of the trio and thus they won’t have home field. The Broncos have lost to the other two, but that was a while ago and they’ve managed to rip off 9 straight since, albeit against a weak schedule. The Texans, meanwhile, have will home field in both, but they just got their asses handed to them by the Patriots in a way that neither of the other teams have by anyone. The Patriots’ 7 point loss last week to the 49ers was the biggest of their season and the Broncos’ 10 point loss in New England was their biggest. And Houston has lost by games in blowout fashion, first to Green Bay and then to New England, and those are their only 2 losses. I think the Patriots would win in Houston and the Broncos wouldn’t, but there are many ways to look at it.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 23 of 31 for 261 yards and a touchdown, 3 thrown away, 1 drop, 115.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 34 drop backs (3 sacks, 3 of 7, 3 thrown away)

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 165 yards (128 after contact) on 27 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 2 attempts

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 11 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 2.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

LE JJ Watt: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 10 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antonio Smith: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops, 1 penalty

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty

LOLB Whitney Mercilus: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

ROLB Connor Barwin: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

MLB Tim Dobbins: 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 1 penalty, was not thrown on

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Denver Broncos: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 11-3

Net points per drive: 0.67 (5th)

DVOA: 37.2% (3rd)

Weighted DVOA: 39.5% (3rd)

The NFC is the much deeper conference, but I think the AFC has more top level talent as they have 3 of the top-5 top tier teams. The Broncos are in 5th, 3rd out of the 3 top AFC teams, because they’ve lost to both of the other two. The Texans have split and the Patriots have beaten both (and still will have to go on the road in a rematch against both because they managed to go 1-3 against the NFC West).

Yes, I am aware those games were in weeks 2 and 5 and that the Broncos have ripped off an NFL best 9 game winning streak since, but against whom? Only Cincinnati and Baltimore even have a winning record among those 9. They could win the whole thing, but I wouldn’t bet on them to win a rematch against New England, let alone a rematch against Houston in the AFC Championship, if they manage to get that far.

Studs

RB Knowshon Moreno: Rushed for 115 yards (50 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 2 attempts

C Dan Koppen: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 55 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts

WR Eric Decker: Caught 8 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 1.6 YAC per catch

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: Allowed 2 catches for 8 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 4 catches for 40 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 solo tackle

RE Robert Ayers: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

ROLB Von Miller: 3 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass snaps, 1 stop

Duds

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 4 passes for 13 yards on 9 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes

FS Rahim Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 1 attempt, 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

WR Trindon Holliday: 2 kickoff returns for 20 yards, 1 fumble, 5 punt returns for 33 yards

RB Ronnie Hillman: 32 yards (20 after contact) on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 sack on 1 pass block snap

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 6 (+0)

Record: 9-5

Net points per drive: 0.77 (3rd)

DVOA: 38.5% (2nd)

Weighted DVOA: 44.8% (2nd)

Seattle is in an interesting spot as well. Like Green Bay, I’m torn on them, whereas the 5 teams ahead of them on this list I’m less torn on. Seattle might be playing better than anyone right now and I fully expect them to beat the 49ers in Seattle this week, but can you really trust a team that lost to Arizona, St. Louis, Miami, and Detroit on the road to go into Washington and win a playoff game, let alone into San Francisco, Green Bay, or Atlanta. If they had been able to get the #2 seed, I’d like their Super Bowl chances better, because they’d only have to play 1 road playoff game in that scenario, at most, but thanks to the 49ers’ win in New England, the only way that happens is if the 49ers somehow lose at home to the Cardinals.

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 14 of 23 for 205 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 throw aways, 1 drop, 96.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 29 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 1 of 5, 3 throw aways), rushed for 92 yards and 3 touchdowns on 9 attempts

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 113 yards (36 after contact) and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 14 yards on 1 attempt, allowed 1 sack on 3 pass block snaps

LT Russell Okung: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Byron Maxwell: Allowed 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

CB Richard Sherman: Allowed 6 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Red Bryant: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

DT Clinton McDonald: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 10-4

Net points per drive: 0.23 (10th)

DVOA: 23.1% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 17.3% (5th)

Green Bay is another team that I’m not sold on, but sometimes I wonder if they’re not the sleeper favorites to win the whole thing, once they get healthy, given their recent history. However, just this year, their impressive wins collection is scarce and includes a blowout in Houston, two wins over the Bears, a home win over the Vikings, and a 14 point win at home over the Cardinals. In their other 10 games, they don’t have a single double digit win despite playing Detroit (twice), St. Louis, and Jacksonville.

I think they’ll be the 3rd seed in the playoffs (either because of a San Francisco win in Seattle, or a Green Bay loss in Minnesota) and either way I think they’d lose a rematch to the 49ers, in Green Bay or in San Francisco, after beating the Bears in the first round (again). But again, the list of teams who could win the whole thing starts here.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 23 of 36 for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns, 4 drops, 1 batted pass, 2 thrown away, 111.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 43 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 scrambles, 2 of 7, 1 throw away)

LG TJ Lang: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 7 attempts

RG Josh Sitton: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 27 yards on 4 attempts

WR Randall Cobb: Caught 6 passes for 115 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 6.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Sam Shields: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 3 pass deflections, no tackles, 1 penalty

SS Morgan Burnett: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 3 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB Clay Matthews: 2 sacks on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 6 stops

RE Mike Neal: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

Duds

RB Alex Green: Rushed for 35 yards (30 after contact) on 13 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 4 attempts

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 7 (-1)

Record: 9-5

Net points per drive: 0.21 (11th)

DVOA: 9.2% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 3.3% (13th)

The Ravens could easily lose their final 2 games and go into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak and 9-7 as either a wild card or a weak division champion, depending on what happens in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati next week (though the Ravens did back into a playoff spot last week, assure that all 4 of last year’s first round bye teams will make the playoffs for the first time in at least a decade). In fact, if lines hold, they’ll be dogs in both of their final 2 games.

However, I think they win both because of the Giants’ tendency to lose when they’re expected to win late in the season and the Bengals general struggles with playoff caliber teams. It is worth noting, however, that the Ravens could easily be 7-7 right now if not for Ben Roethlisberger injury (or even Byron Leftwich’s injury) and Ray Rice’s 4th and 29. Their last win by more than 3 was week 10 and they have just 2 wins by more than a field goal dating back to week 5, when they barely beat the Chiefs.

On the season, they have just 3 wins by more than a field goal. I’m really not sold on a single team in the AFC outside of New England, Denver, and Houston and maybe Pittsburgh, if they even make the playoffs (and even then they’d have to go to Foxboro in the first round). The Ravens should beat the Colts in the first round of the playoffs, but I think they’d get killed on the road against any of the AFC’s top-3.

Studs

TE Dennis Pitta: Caught 7 passes for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 9.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

LOLB Courtney Upshaw: 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Pernell McPhee: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 8 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

Duds

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 38 yards (19 after contact) on 12 attempts, caught 3 passes for 3 yards on 7 attempts, 1 drop

RT Kelechi Osemele: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Anquan Boldin: Did not catch a pass on 6 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 6 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Terrence Cody: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Haloti Ngata: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 2 assists

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Washington Redskins: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 8 (-1)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.08 (14th)

DVOA: 7.1% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 10.2% (9th)

In a complicated NFC, the Redskins outcome seems easiest to predict. All they have to do is beat Philadelphia and Dallas and they win the NFC East and the 4th seed, which I think they will. That sets them up with a playoff matchup against the Seahawks in the first round and as good as the Seahawks have been this year, they’ve already lost to St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami on the road, so Washington’s winning streak could continue into the playoffs right into a rematch with the Falcons (who beat them by 7 in Washington earlier this year, in a game in which Robert Griffin got hurt). That would be an interesting one, but I think the home dominant Falcons would emerge victorious.

Studs

RT Jordan Black: Did not allow a pressure on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

LT Trent Williams: Allowed 1 sack on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards on 7 attempts

CB Josh Wilson: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB DeAngelo Hall: Allowed 6 catches for 37 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

ROLB Rob Jackson: 1 sack on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 interception

Duds

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Perry Riley: Allowed 4 catches for 42 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Chicago Bears: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 10 (+0)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.31 (9th)

DVOA: 18.9% (6th)

Weighted DVOA: 17.0% (6th)

I detailed the Giants/Bears battle for the 6th seed in the Giants’ write up. The Bears should take care of their business and beat the Cardinals and Detroit. They’ve beaten everyone they’re supposed to, going 7-0 SU as favorites of 3.5 or more this year. That would put them at 10-6 and needing a New York loss in Baltimore, which I think they get, to make the playoffs. However, the 6 seed will probably send them to Green Bay in the first round (against whom Jay Cutler is 1-8) and if it doesn’t, it’ll send them to San Francisco, who blew them out earlier this year (albeit without Cutler) and who might be the best team in the NFL. The Bears’ major struggles against playoff caliber teams should make them one and done this postseason.

Studs

RE Julius Peppers: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE Corey Wootton: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB Nick Roach: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes

ROLB Blake Costanzo: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, was not thrown on

Duds

QB Jay Cutler: 12 of 21 for 137 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 58.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 26 drop backs (4 sacks, 3 of 4)

LG James Brown: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 4 attempts

RG Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 18 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 3 attempts

WR Alshon Jeffery: Did not catch a pass on 4 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 3 penalties

LOLB Lance Briggs: Allowed 6 catches for 87 yards on 8 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, 1 batted pass

CB Kelvin Hayden: Allowed 6 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB DJ Moore: Allowed 5 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitzes, 1 batted pass

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 12 (+1)

Record: 9-5

Net points per drive: -0.32 (24th)

DVOA: -21.0% (28th)

Weighted DVOA: -18.8% (26th)

The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland. They should finish 10-6, by beating the Chiefs and losing to the Texans (unless the Texans rest starters), I don’t think they’ll even keep it close on the road in Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs.

Studs

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Cory Redding: 3 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

RB Mewelde Moore: Rushed for 6 yards (3 after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 fumble

LG Joe Reitz: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -7 yards on 4 attempts

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

RT Jeff Linkenbach: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 44 yards on 4 attempts

WR Reggie Wayne: Caught 3 passes for 14 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch

CB Vontae Davis: Allowed 8 catches for 119 yards on 10 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 11 (-1)

Record: 7-7

Net points per drive: 0.10 (13th)

DVOA: -3.0% (17th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.0% (15th)

The Steelers lost last week in Dallas, but that game didn’t mean anything to them. For Dallas it meant their season, but the Steelers still control their own destiny if they can win out at home against Cincinnati and Cleveland and I think they can. I discussed Cincinnati’s issues with playoff caliber opponents over the last 2 seasons, but Pittsburgh might actually be healthier now than they’ve been all season. I know they’re missing Ike Taylor, but all their other guy players are healthy and that hasn’t been the case all year. We just couldn’t tell against Dallas because they didn’t care (they’re also now 5-16 ATS as road non-divisional favorites in the Mike Tomlin era). Unfortunately, 9-7 and a 6 seed sends them to Foxboro in the 1st round. They won’t be an easy out, but I can’t see them winning that game

Studs

LG Ramon Foster: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

TE Heath Miller: Caught 7 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 5.7 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass block snaps

Duds

RT Kelvin Beachum: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

CB Josh Victorian: Allowed 7 catches for 88 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 4 missed tackles

MLB Larry Foote: 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hurries on 16 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB LaMarr Woodley: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

NT Casey Hampton: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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New York Giants: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 13 (+0)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.42 (8th)

DVOA: 13.3% (7th)

Weighted DVOA: 10.5% (8th)

I went back and forth on Chicago/NY Giants for the final playoff spot. The Giants control their own destiny, but the Bears have very winnable games against Arizona and the team who lost to Arizona (Detroit) to finish their season, while the Giants have to go to Baltimore. If they can win in Baltimore, they should make the playoffs, only needing to win at home against the Eagles week 17 to get in, but that game isn’t easy.

It’s a tossup for me, but I’m leading towards Baltimore (and Chicago for the final playoff spot) because the Giants always struggle when they’re expected to win and as road favorites with all the public action on them, that’s the case. Baltimore, meanwhile, is being overlooked after 3 straight losses and once won 16 straight at home. If the Ravens had won last week and the Giants had been dogs and not heavily backed by the public, I’d be all over them, but Baltimore should be the right side this week, knocking the defending Super Bowl champs out of the playoffs.

Studs

RT David Diehl: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

WR Domenik Hixon: Caught 5 passes for 80 yards on 6 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 7.6 YAC per catch

DT Chris Canty: 1 sack on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

Duds

QB Eli Manning: 13 of 25 for 161 yards and 2 interceptions, 1 batted pass, 45.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 29 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 9, 2 interceptions)

LG Kevin Boothe: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 5 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 1 penalty, 3.0 YAC per catch

CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 6 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

SS Antrel Rolle: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 4 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 54 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Keith Rivers: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 2 attempts

LE Justin Tuck: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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