QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)
In 13 games before his injury, Big Ben had 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 3526 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 26 touchdowns, 14 touchdowns, and 4340 yards. However, I’m not expecting that from him. He’s only played all 16 games once in his career and he’s never 100% for all the ones he does play.
Projection: 3940 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 120 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (245 pts standard/289 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)
8/31/12: For more on the Steelers’ backfield situation, click here.
8/27/12: Not only is Rashard Mendenhall activated off the PUP, but Redman is also hurt. He won’t miss any games, but he said his groin and hip problems could bother him all year, never a good thing for someone trying to establish himself. On top of that, Jonathan Dwyer has looked good in the preseason and will cut into his carries even when Redman is the starter, which he should still be for 3-4 weeks.
8/20/12: Rashard Mendenhall has been activated off the PUP, a very surprising move since even GM Kevin Tolbert said he’d likely begin the season on the PUP and miss at least 6 games. He won’t be ready for the opener, but he’ll likely only miss around 3 games, rather than 6+. Redman will be the lead back for 3 games and get about 15 carries per game and then get about 10, an even split with Mendenhall, for the other 13. He is the more talented back in Pittsburgh’s backfield and Mendenhall in a contract year and unlikely to remain with the team after the season, but Redman’s window of opportunity to show himself as a true lead back has at least been cut in half.
The Steelers’ coaching staff is not counting on Rashard Mendenhall in 2012. Anything they can get from him will be a bonus, but Redman should have at least 8 games to be the starter, possibly more if he runs well. Redman, who the coaching staff has been talking up this offseason, won’t have a lot of competition from other backs until Mendenhall returns and will be running behind an upgraded offensive line with the additions of David DeCastro and Mike Adams, as well as the return of Willie Colon from injury.
Projection: 130 carries 550 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 17 catches 110 receiving yards (96 pts standard/113 pts PPR)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh)
8/31/12: For more on the Steelers’ backfield situation, click here.
8/27/12: Mendenhall is less likely to split carries with Redman once he returns now that Redman is nursing a lingering injury.
8/20/12: Mendenhall is officially on the fantasy radar after being activated off the PUP. He’ll still miss the first few games of the season and probably split carries for the rest of the season, but he’s worth a late round flier, especially as a handcuff to the still unproven Isaac Redman.
Isaac Redman and Mendenhall combined for 338 carries last season. To get Mendenhall’s projected carries, I assumed he’d miss 8 games and then split carries with Redman evenly for 8 games, so I essentially divided 338 by 4. He won’t be much of a fantasy factor this season if his injury situation remains the way it currently sounds.
Projection: 140 carries 600 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches 120 receiving yards (102 pts standard/117 pts PPR)
RB Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh)
8/31/12: For more on the Steelers’ backfield situation, click here.
8/27/12: Mendenhall is coming off a torn ACL and will miss at least 3 games. Redman has lingering groin and hip problems. All of a sudden, Dwyer, who has looked good this preseason, makes for an interesting late sleeper in deeper leagues. In normal leagues, definitely monitor him.
Projection: 130 carries 610 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 10 catches 80 receiving yards (99 pts standard/109 pts PPR)
WR Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)
8/27/12: Mike Wallace is expected to report sometime this week, possibly even tomorrow. He’s still a strong candidate for a down year after an extended holdout because he could be out of top football shape and because he missed a whole offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in. The Steelers have another receiver, Antonio Brown, who is just as talented, if not more so, who has been there all offseason. He’ll be the Steelers’ primary target at least for the first half of the season, benefiting from Wallace drawing the attention away from him. He could be their primary target all season. Plus, remember, Brown had 677 yards to Wallace’s 393.
7/27/12: Mike Wallace will either play out the season under his one year tender or be traded. Regardless of whether or not he gets traded, Wallace’s fantasy value could take a major hit this season. If he reports, it’ll likely be after a long holdout, which could led to him getting out of shape and will cost him valuable time learning the playbook, while other receivers like Brown and Sanders are gaining greater mastery of Todd Haley’s new system. He could also hold out into the season.
If he gets traded, he’ll be traded to a team likely with an inferior quarterback and receivers have a poor track record when switching teams, especially this close to the season. It takes time to learn a playbook and get adjusted to a quarterback. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues, especially at his current ADP in the early 4th round.
7/26/12: Mike Wallace’s holdout could get ugly. Right now, the Steelers won’t agree to negotiate with him until he reports to camp, but he won’t report to camp until they pay him. I don’t expect him to miss any games, at least not at the moment, but an extended holdout could hurt him on the field this season. He risks getting out of shape and more importantly he also misses valuable practice with in new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system. Let him be someone else’s problem unless he falls to the point where he’s too good to pass on.
Wallace has had 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns and 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last 2 years. He’ll be better if Big Ben can stay healthy for 16 games, but that never happens. Still, he’s a top-10 fantasy receiver once again.
Projection: 62 catches 1010 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (137 pts standard/199 pts PPR)
WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)
8/28/12: Brown also gets a stock up with Wallace coming back. The Steelers will probably use Wallace primarily as a deep decoy for the first 4-8 games of the season until he gets the playbook mastered, which sets up a perfect situation for Brown, who has been there all offseason and was the team’s leading receiver, by far, in the 2nd half of the season. Wallace had about 1200 yards last year and Brown had about 1100. Expect Brown to be closer to 1300 and Wallace to be closer to 1000 this year.
7/27/12: If Wallace is traded or holds out into the season, Brown immediately becomes the #1 receiver. Even Wallace isn’t traded, Brown could still be the #1 receiver because he’ll have better mastery of Todd Haley’s new offense and because he won’t run the risk of getting out of shape. He’s heading into his 3rd year, normally a big breakout year for receivers. He should have career highs across the board.
7/26/12: With Mike Wallace trending down, Antonio Brown is trending up. Brown will be the #1 receiver in Wallace’s absence at Training Camp and that could lead to him become a more relied on receiver by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, especially since he figures to have better mastery of their new offensive system.
Antonio Brown had his breakout year last year, giving Pittsburgh two 1000 yard receivers. They could very well have two 1000 yard receivers again this year. Brown will be more valuable in fantasy leagues this year than last because I think his mere 2 touchdowns from last year were a fluke. The combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders vultured 9 touchdowns last year. That won’t happen this year.
Projection: 78 catches 1270 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (175 pts standard/253 pts PPR)
TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh)
8/7/12: Heath Miller is going to be a bigger part of Todd Haley’s offense, especially if Mike Wallace misses time. He’s a nice high end TE2.
Miller is a solid, but unspectacular tight end, but he should surpass the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year for reasons I listed under Antonio Brown’s write up. Still, it’s hard to recommend Miller as a TE1.
Projection: 57 catches 700 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard/157 pts PPR)
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