Year: 2012

Raiders’ Rolando McClain sentenced to 6 months in jail

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Rolando McClain’s court case for assault with a deadly weapon did not last long. McClain, who allegedly pointed a gun at a man’s head last November, was found guilty of the charges today after a codefendant agreed to a plea and agreed to testify against him. McClain has been sentenced to 6 months in jail, though he will appeal the ruling. It’s unclear when he’ll start his jail sentence and if he’ll actually serve the whole 6 months, but it’s very possible, if not definite, that McClain will get a suspension from Roger Goodell on top of any jail time. We may not see McClain play a snap in 2012.

If he were to miss the season or a large portion of it, it would be yet another blow to a new Raiders front office team that is trying to compete in spite of the consequences of the previous front office’s shortsightedness. The Raiders did not have a non-compensatory draft pick in the first 4 rounds this year and didn’t have the cap freedom to do anything in free agency. They also had to cut 3 starters, Kamerion Wimbley, Stanford Routt, and Kevin Boss, for cap reasons.

McClain’s loss would be another huge blow to a defense that has already lost Nnamdi Asomugha (their top cornerback), Kamerion Wimbley (their top pass rusher), and Stanford Routt (a starting cornerback) in the last 2 offseasons. The inexperienced Travis Goethel is expected to step in for McClain at middle linebacker. The Raiders could have one of the worst defenses in the league this year.

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Vikings’ Adrian Peterson “50-50” for Training Camp

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When Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and MCL late last season, some believed he could be lost for the entirety of the 2012 season. However, earlier this month, he was running well at practice with the Vikings. That being said, the road to being game ready will still be tough. When asked about it today, Peterson put himself at “50-50 for Training Camp. I’d still bet that he’s out there starting for them week 1, but it’s certainly a situation to monitor from here on for fantasy football players. When healthy, Peterson is a first round pick. If he doesn’t play, Toby Gerhart will make the starts.

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Breakout year for Eagles’ Jeremy Maclin?

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Is Jeremy Maclin headed for a breakout season? If you ask the Eagles, he is. When the Philadelphia Enquirer asked Eagles coaches to name one player at any position who will make his first Pro Bowl this year, they “didn’t hesitate” to name Jeremy Maclin. A former 1st round pick, Maclin has never had a 1000 yard season, but caught 63 passes for 859 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games last season despite never being fully healthy. Now reportedly fully healthy, Maclin is definitely impressing at minicamp. He could easily have his first 1000 yard season this year. He could be a buy low player in fantasy leagues.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers extend K Connor Barth

stevenlourie Uncategorized

I don’t think I’ve ever done a grade for a kicker signing, but Barth is one of the best in the league. In 4 seasons, he’s nailed 73 of 87 field goals, including 24 of 26 last year and is perfect on 95 extra point attempts. He also handles all the kickoffs I normally don’t like giving multiyear deals to kickers because they’re so sporadic and unpredictable, but Barth is an exception. 4 years is a long time and 13.2 million is a lot of money, but only 4 million guaranteed. They might have been better off letting him play out the season under the 2.6 million dollar franchise tag, however.

Grade: B

Philadelphia Eagles extend RB LeSean McCoy

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This deal is for 45 million over 5 years with 20.765 million guaranteed. You know the Eagles used Arian Foster’s deal with the Texans, which he signed earlier this offseason, as a reference for this deal. Foster signed a 42.5 million dollar deal over 5 years with 20.75 million guaranteed. McCoy is a back on the same level as Arian Foster and 2 years younger so while I really, really liked the Foster deal, I love this deal.

McCoy doesn’t turn 24 until July so he is now signed through his age 29 season. He won’t be too old when he’s in the tail end of this deal so he should be worth this contract through the life of the contract and at least until all the guaranteed money has been paid, barring injury. He’s one of the best running backs in the league and should remain that for years to come.

When you compare McCoy to what Adrian Peterson got last offseason (7 years, 96 million, 36 million guaranteed), the Texans got a great value. In fact, the Eagles got McCoy for basically what the Panthers got DeAngelo Williams for last offseason (5 years 43 million with 21 million guaranteed). Williams had previous injury problems and was 5 years older. It’s ridiculous that McCoy got less money guaranteed than Williams did.

Grade: A

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Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Titans

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here. For the short version, I feel the same away about the Titans and Jake Locker that I felt about Matt Stafford and the Lions last year. You have to be conservative, but even if you are, Locker makes a lot of sense as a low end QB1. That team has drafted so well in the past 4-5 years and looks ready to pop.

8/20/12: The Titans have named Jake Locker starting quarterback. Locker averaged 8.2 YPA and had 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions last season, but he also only completed 51.5% of his passes. He has accuracy issues dating back to his days at Washington and if his last Preseason start is any indication (4-11 for 21 yards), those aren’t past him. He has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (270 pts standard/320 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

Unlike last year, Chris Johnson won’t be more focused on getting paid this offseason than staying in shape. It took him until the 2nd half of the season last year to even remotely resemble CJ2K, but in his last 8 games, he carried the ball 141 times for 681 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 282 carries for 1362 yards and 6 touchdowns. He could be even better this season, especially with the addition of Steve Hutchinson at upfront.

He’ll probably also get more carries. The Titans don’t have another back capable of challenging him and they should run more than the 376 times they ran last year, 30th in the league. His touchdowns should also increase. The 22/8 passing/rushing touchdown ratio the Titans had last year should prove to be an outlier. Finally, if Jake Locker is under center, his rushing ability and ability to throw stretch the defense with his arm will take the defense’s focus off of Johnson. Johnson had his best years when Vince Young, who could do the same sorts of things, was under center.

Projection: 300 carries 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 45 catches 350 receiving yards (233 pts standard/278 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/31/12: I’ve maintained all along that Britt has the ability to be a top-10 wide receiver with Jake Locker throwing him the football. He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Now he’s only getting suspended 1 game and should be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by week 2. He might not become a top-10 receiver this year with the uncertainty about the knee and the one game he’ll miss, but he definitely has the upside and he’s worth the risk as a WR2/flex type in the early mid rounds.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: Adam Schefter reports that Britt will likely receive only a short suspension, somewhere between 1-3 games. He’s also made an incredible recovery from 2 knee surgeries and is impressing in work on the side and could be activated from the PUP any day now. I originally projected him to play 12 games, now I’m changing his projections to 14 games. Remember, in his last 14 full games, he’s caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s got incredible upside in the mid rounds still.

7/26/12: There are three numbers that are important for Britt. The first is 12, meaning 12 touchdowns over his last 14 games, to go with 56 catches and 1146 yards, despite generally mediocre quarterbacking (Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Matt Hasselbeck). The 2nd number is 8, however, meaning 8 arrests in the last 3 years since entering the league. He’ll almost definitely be suspended after his last one, for DUI. He would have been suspended last season, but Roger Goodell agreed not to suspend guys for what they did during the lockout. He won’t be so lucky this time around.

The 3rd number is 3, meaning 3 knee surgeries in the last 10 months. I’m cutting his originally projected numbers by 25%. He might not miss 4 games, but he could and even if he doesn’t, he’ll be far from 100%. Let him be someone else’s problem, unless you can get him late, in which case he’s a sleeper with nice upside. His current ADP in the 7th round is far too rich, however.

In the last 2 seasons, Britt has played 13 entire games. In those 14 games, he has 56 catches for 1046 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 64 catches for 1195 yards and 14 touchdowns. And he did that with Kerry Collins, Vince Young and just 2 games of Matt Hasselbeck. There’s serious sleeper value with him in the mid rounds, even all of the receiving options the Titans have. He just needs to stay on the field for 16 games. He had another knee surgery this offseason, but it doesn’t sound serious.

Projection: 60 catches 960 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (144 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

8/31/12: Kenny Britt will only be suspended 1 game. With Britt back and Kendall Wright coming in, Washington almost definitely won’t have another 1000 yard season, but he’s improved from 2010 as a football player and his quarterback situation has been upgraded so even if he has fewer targets than in 2010, he should exceed his 2010 production. He’s a nice late round “handcuff” for Britt because he’ll see plenty of targets should Britt get hurt again.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: With Britt likely missing 2 games instead of 4, like I originally predicted, Washington obviously gets a stock down. He caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year out of necessity, but now Britt is coming back from injury and they’ve brought in Kendall Wright in the first round. He caught just 42 passes for 687 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010. His stats should be closer to that in 2012.

7/26/12:  Remember, Nate Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns in Britt’s absence last year. He won’t quite do that this year because Britt won’t miss as much action as he did last year and because of the presence of rookie receiver Kendall Wright. However, he deserves a stock up after Britt’s latest surgery and arrest.

Nate Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year with Kenny Britt out, but now Britt is back and they’ve added Kendall Wright. They have a better quarterback, but Washington should regress back to his 2008-2010 levels of statistical production.

Projection: 51 catches 750 yards 6 receiving touchdowns (111 pts standard/162 pts PPR)

TE Jared Cook (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

Jared Cook quietly emerged as one of the better tight ends in the league last year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and if his last 3 games were any indication (21 catches for 335 yards and 1 touchdown), he could be even better this year, especially if the Titans upgrade their quarterback situation from Hasselbeck to Locker.

Projection: 54 catches 820 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/166 pts PPR)

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Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Colts

QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

Like Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck should be a solid QB1 with upside as a rookie. I expect him to have better passing numbers than either Newton or Griffin, but he won’t match either of their rushing numbers, which is why Griffin has the advantage over Luck in fantasy, at least for this year.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 240 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (260 pts standard/306 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

With Joseph Addai gone, Donald Brown looks like the clear lead back in Indianapolis. However, the former 1st round pick has had a very inconsistent career. Both Delone Carter and Vick Ballard could challenge for his job at some point this season if he struggles. There is some upside here with Brown in an improved Indianapolis offense.

Projection: 180 carries 770 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches 180 receiving yards (137 pts standard/157 pts PPR)

RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

8/7/12: Vick Ballard, not Delone Carter, is listed as Donald Brown’s primary backup. Ballard is the only one of Indianapolis’ 3 backs drafted by the current regime and in an unclear backup, that means a lot. If Brown gets benched, which will probably happen, Ballard will become a starting running back and even until then, he’ll serve as a power compliment to Brown.

He’ll need Carter and Brown to struggle to become the lead back, but that could happen. The Colts had 3 backs go over 100 carries last year with Brown, Carter, Joseph Addai. They could have a similar thing happen this year with Brown, Carter and the rookie Ballard. There’s some sleeper value with him.

Projection: 150 carries 650 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 18 catches 140 receiving yards (115 pts standard/133 pts PPR)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Moving Wayne down a little bit, upon closer examination of the Colts’ receiving corps. You can read about it here.

Reggie Wayne still managed 75 catches for 960 yards and 4 touchdowns last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback, but here’s nearing that point where even Hall of Fame wide receivers fall off a cliff statistically. I’d let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 64 catches 870 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (123 pts standard/187 pts PPR)

WR Austin Collie (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Collie is the Colts’ receiver you want to own, even after his latest minor concussion. Read about it here.

Projection: 73 catches 930 receiving yards 6 total touchdowns (129 pts standard/202 pts PPR)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Fleener hasn’t quite been as big of a part of the offense in the Preseason as anticipated. Wide receiver Austin Collie has been Luck’s favorite target.

I like Fleener to have an immediate impact. Andrew Luck loves throwing to his tight ends and the Colts should use plenty of two-tight ends sets to get Dwayne Allen and Fleener involved, though Fleener is the better receiver and more useful player for fantasy purposes. Luck has familiarity with Fleener and should target him early and often, particularly in the red zone. As I’ve said before, this Colts receiving corps still leaves a lot to be desired and Fleener might finish the season 2nd on the team in receiving. There’s some potential for him to have a Rob Gronkowski esque rookie season.

Projection: 42 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/145 pts PPR)

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Houston Texans Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Texans

QB Matt Schaub (Houston)

There was a time when Schaub was an elite fantasy quarterback, but the Texans have become more of a run heavy team with Arian Foster and Ben Tate over these past few years. In fact, in 10 games last year, Schaub threw the ball 292 times, which translates to 467 times over 16 games. They should pass a bit more than that this year, but if they don’t, and Schaub can’t maintain his career high 8.5 YPA from last year, he could throw for less than 4000 yards. He also only had 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 10 games last year, meaning 25 and 10 over 16 games. And then, of course, he’s missed at least 5 games in 3 of 5 years as a starter. He’s pretty low on the fantasy totem pole this year. This might even be a little high.

Projection:  4120 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (247 pts standard/297 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Arian Foster (Houston)

In a weak year for running backs, Arian Foster is the only one I really, really love and I’m taking him #1 in a heartbeat. Yes, the Texans have Ben Tate, but they also run more than almost any team in the league. In the 12 games he was healthy last year, Foster had 268 carries for 1191 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 357 carries for 1588 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Matt Schaub will be back this year, but they won’t run any less. In the 6 games Foster and Schaub played in healthy last year, Foster carried the ball 161 times, which is 368 times over 16 games. He probably won’t have quite that many next season, but he should approach the 327 carries he had in 2010. A full season of Schaub should push his touchdown total closer to the 18 he had in 2010 than the 12 he had in 2011. He lost 2 starting offensive linemen, so he should be a little down from the 4.7 YPC he’s averaged in his career, but the Texans are so good at producing starting offensive linemen in their scheme that it might not matter that much.

Projection: 320 carries 1440 rushing yards 16 total touchdowns 60 catches 600 receiving yards (300 pts standard/360 pts PPR)

RB Ben Tate (Houston)

The Texans run more than any team in the league so there’s still some value with Ben Tate. His 5.4 YPC from last year probably isn’t replicable, especially after the Texans lost 2 starting offensive lineman. However, he remains a decent RB for your bench and probably the most valuable handcuff in the league. Arian Foster owners will want to own him in case of a Foster injury.

Projection: 150 carries 720 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches 110 receiving yards (113 pts standard/128 pts PPR)

WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

I’m torn on Andre Johnson. On one hand, he had 86 catches for 1216 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2010 in just 13 games after back-to-back 100 catch 1500 yard seasons in 2008 and 2009. He didn’t do much last year thanks to injuries, but he should be fully healthy this year. On the other hand, he’s turns 31 in July and the Texans don’t pass as much as they used to and he’s had a history of injury problems. We should see slightly less than peak production for Johnson this year and there’s some downside.

Projection: 80 catches 1200 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (168 pts standard/248 pts PPR)

WR Kevin Walter (Houston)

With Jacoby Jones gone, Walter is the Texans’ only other veteran wide receiver besides Andre Johnson. He should be able to hold off their young receivers for the starting job. However, he’s not that talented. He couldn’t even establish himself as a viable fantasy option when Andre Johnson was hurt last year. There’s no upside with him and some downside if he loses his starting job midseason.

Projection: 50 catches 600 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (84 pts standard/134 pts PPR)

TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

Owen Daniels should once again have a solid season. The Texans have a bunch of weapons, but Daniels should be Schaub’s favorite after Andre Johnson.

Projection: 60 catches 660 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (90 pts standard/150 pts PPR)

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Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Dolphins

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

8/20/12: The Dolphins have named Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback. You can do a lot better than him for a QB2 though. He has no receiving corps and he’s incredibly raw. The only reason he’s starting is because veteran David Garrard got hurt and other veteran Matt Moore stunk up the joint this Preseason. They’re starting him out of necessity, not because he’s ready. In his only Preseason start, he was 11 of 23 for 100 yards.

Projection: 3300 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (194 pts standard/226 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Reggie Bush (Miami)

Reggie Bush finally made it through a season healthy last year, carrying the ball 216 times in 15 games and keeping 2nd round rookie Daniel Thomas at bay. However, prior to that he hadn’t gone over 106 carries since 2007. I wouldn’t buy high with him. I also don’t see his 5.0 YPC from last year as replicable. He has gone over 4.2 YPC only one other time in his career and the Dolphins lost two starting offensive linemen this offseason.

Projection: 150 carries 650 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 40 catches 300 receiving yards (125 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

RB Daniel Thomas (Miami)

Bush and Thomas combined for 381 carries last year. I don’t see them quite reaching that number this year. Their new Head Coach Joe Philbin comes from a pass heavy team in Green Bay and probably won’t run as much as the more conservative Tony Sparano. Also, if Bush gets hurt, Thomas wouldn’t necessarily be a 20+ carry per game back. They did use a 4th round pick on Lamar Miller, who could vulture some carries from Thomas if Bush gets hurt.

Still, given Bush’s injury history, I see Thomas leading the team in carries, but Bush being more valuable from a fantasy perspective because of his pass catching abilities and Thomas’ mere 3.5 YPC from last season. Thomas will probably get the goal line looks, but there might not be too many of those to go around on a poor Miami offense.

Projection: 180 carries 720 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 16 catches 120 yards (114 pts standard/130 pts PPR)

WR Davone Bess (Miami)

Bess is a talented receiver, but he can’t really play outside. He’ll stay in the slot, probably with Hartline and Legedu Naanee outside competing to be the #1 receiver. Bess had 51 catches for 537 yards and 3 touchdowns last year on a poor passing offense out of the slot. He should be able to replicate those stats this season.

Projection: 55 catches 570 receiving yards 3 receiving touchdowns (75 pts standard/130 pts PPR)

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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bills

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo)

There’s upside to be had here. In 7 games before going down with a rib injury last year, Fitzpatrick threw for 1739 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. After 7 games, Fitzpatrick really struggled, but that rib injury, as well as injuries to offensive players like Demetress Bell, Eric Wood, and Fred Jackson, were probably largely to blame. Over 16 games, that’s 3975 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

Of course, he had never done anything like that in his career before then and it’s possible he gets hurt again, so there is downside for the league’s leader in interceptions last year. I basically averaged those projected stats with his actual stats from last year to get my projection for him. I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my starter, but if I couldn’t grab an elite quarterback to be my starter and had to settle for a middle of the run starter, Fitzpatrick would probably be my choice as a high upside backup if available.

Projection: 3900 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 220 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (252 pts standard/304 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

There was a time when Fred Jackson was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011. In 9 games when he was healthy, he had 163 carries for 917 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 290 carries for 1630 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. However, CJ Spiller was really good down the stretch for the Bills and they did use the 9th overall pick on him 2 years ago.

Jackson is 31, though he has only 817 carries in his career because he spent years working his way up out of Division-III Coe College. They also just gave him an extension, but I still think we’ll see closer to a 2-1 split between Jackson and Spiller rather than the Jackson dominated split we saw early last year. I also don’t see him averaging 5.5 YPC again. He should still get the goal line carries and he catches the ball a good amount as well.

Projection: 200 carries 920 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 350 receiving yards (175 pts standard/210 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

Spiller and Jackson have combined for 296 and 277 carries in the last 2 years. I think Jackson will continue to be the lead back like he was early last season, albeit probably not on the 290 carry pace he was on because of his age and Spiller’s play down the stretch last year when Jackson was hurt. However, Jackson has proven over his career to be the more talented and durable back and they just gave him an extension. He’ll probably get 2 carries for each of Spiller’s, leaving Spiller as nothing but a backup in fantasy circles unless Jackson gets hurt.

Projection: 100 carries 450 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 35 catches 240 receiving yards (99 pts/134 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

Johnson has 82 catches for 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He should be able to surpass 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns again and could have a career high season if Ryan Fitzpatrick plays as well as he did last season before the rib injury. The Bills still don’t have very many other talented options besides Johnson unless 3rd round rookie TJ Graham can make huge strides in his first season as a pro.

Projection: 80 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts/244 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Chandler isn’t a very good tight end. He’s big, but he doesn’t move well at all. However, the Bills don’t have another option at the position and Fitzpatrick seems to like throwing to him in the red zone. If Fitzpatrick plays like he did early last year, Chandler could surpass the 38 catches for 389 yards and 6 touchdowns he had last season. He’s still not fantasy startable.

Projection: 42 catches 450 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (87 pts/129 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

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